DOCUMENT NUMBER

TD-0085
Title

Thermal Blast:
Safe Evacuation
Author

Slavo Kostadinovic

Version Details of Change Changed by Date

Rev. 1 Initial Issue Slavo Kostadinovic 6th May 2019
Rev. 2 Section 5.3 added Slavo Kostadinovic 6th June 2019

THIS DOCUMENT IS UNCONTROLLED ONCE PRINTED.

 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

CONTENTS
1 GENERAL ............................................................................................................................................... 3
2 JET FIRE and POOL FIRE ......................................................................................................................... 3
3 ESTIMATING THERMAL FLUX ................................................................................................................ 4
3.1 HEAT RELEASE RETE ...................................................................................................................... 4
3.2 FLAME HEIGHT .............................................................................................................................. 4
3.2.1 Flame height as per McCaffrey’s........................................................................................... 4
3.2.2 Flame hight as per Heskestad ............................................................................................... 5
3.2.3 Flame height as per Alpert and Ward ................................................................................... 5
3.3 HEAT FLUX ..................................................................................................................................... 5
3.4 APPLICATION TO JET FIRE ............................................................................................................. 6
4 THERMAL DEGRADATION of FABRIC..................................................................................................... 7
4.1 HEAT TRANSFER CALCULATIONS .................................................................................................. 7
4.2 MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE HEAT FLUX ........................................................................................... 8
4.3 FIRE-INDUCED AIR FLOW COOLING EFFECT .................................................................................. 9
4.4 ESTIMATION OF FABRIC DEGRADATION TIME............................................................................ 10
5 EXAMPLE ............................................................................................................................................. 11
5.1 JET FIRE ....................................................................................................................................... 11
5.2 SAFE EVACUATION TIME AS PER GIVEN HEAT FLUX ................................................................... 13
5.3 KEVLAR FABRIC AS A PROTECTIVE LAYER ................................................................................... 15

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

1 GENERAL
This report is initiated by a specific project requirement related to the high thermal hazard. The report
merges together several reports and research in order to calculate required safe evacuation time in case
of a thermal incident (high thermal flux at shelter border).

In addition, the report discusses a solution to maintain the DAS shelter surface temperature below the
critical one while keeping the ambient temperature at an acceptable level.

2 JET FIRE AND POOL FIRE

In order to estimate a safe evacuation time in case of a thermal incident, an estimation of a thermal flux
at the shelter surface generated by the incident is required. A thermal incident can result in the form of
a jet fire or pool fire. While jet fire forms when a released pressurized flammable substance is ignited, a
pool fire forms when an unpressurized flammable substance (open pool) is ignited.

Figure 1: Jet fire and Pool fire

Further sections discuss thermal parameters related only to a pool fire cases. This is because of a lack of
literature explaining the mechanism behind the jet fire. Nevertheless, findings related to a pool fire case
are applicable to a jet fire case. This is proven by comparing a jet fire case estimation with a set of
experimental data which is a part of this report as well.

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

3 ESTIMATING THERMAL FLUX

The value of thermal flux is directly related to the amount of heat released during a thermal incident.
Heat release rate or power of fire represents released energy over a period of time.

3.1 HEAT RELEASE RETE

The heat release rate is calculated as:

̇ = ̇" ∙ Eq 1
∙∆
where
̇( ) – heat release rate

̇" – the mass loss rate of a fuel

( ) – the area involved in the vaporization

∆ – the effective heat of combustion

3.2 FLAME HEIGHT

There are several approaches to estimate the height of the flame but should be noted that flame height
is considered from the base of the flame to the height above the flaming object, not from the base of
the object1.

3.2.1 Flame height as per McCaffrey’s

McCaffrey's approach recognizes the consistent and intermittent height of the flame. Corresponding
equations are as follows:

Eq 2
= 0.08 ∙ ̇
Eq 3
= 0.20 ∙ ̇
where

( ) – Consistent height of flathe me

0.08 – Consistent flame variable

( ) – Intermittent height of flathe me. This height is to be compared with other methods

0.20 – Intermittent flame variable

̇( ) – Heat released rate

1
A Users Guide for the CFI Calculator and Fire Dynamics Equations

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

3.2.2 Flame hight as per Heskestad

A second equation was developed by Heskestad and its one usually used for calculating the flame height
of pool fire and includes a flame diameter.

Eq 4
= 0.23 ∙ ̇ − 1.02 ∙
where

( ) – Height of the flame

̇( ) – Heat release rate

( ) – Diameter of flame

0.23 – flame constant

3.2.3 Flame height as per Alpert and Ward

The third equation was developed by Alpert and Ward and it is included in NFPA 921 2004 edition2. The
equation is:

Eq 5
= 0.174 ∙ ∙ ̇
where

– Location of fire

= 1 , Center of room
= 2 , Against a wall
= 4 , Corner of room
̇( ) – Heat release rate

0.174 – Flame constant

3.3 HEAT FLUX

The radiant heat flux at some distance from a point-source is calculated as:

∙ ̇ Eq 6
̇=
4∙ ∙
where

̇ – Heat flux

– Combustion energy percentage lost by the flame as radiation

̇( ) – Heat release rate

( ) – Distance between the axis of the flame and target receiving the radiation

2
NFPA 921: Guide for Fire and Explosion Investigations

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

The radiation percentage ( ) indicates how efficiently given fuel radiates energy. It is not constant for
given fuel but will vary in range 0.15 for low soot fuels such as methane to 0.60 for hight soot fuel such
as polystyrene:

 = 0.45 for gasoline

 = 0.35 for wood
 = 0.17 for methanol and methane

3.4 APPLICATION TO JET FIRE

This section discusses an approximation made for a jet fire case. A jet fire case is considered as a pool
fire characterized by small vaporizing area but large mass flow. Several comparations with experimental
data are made with results confirming that above approximation is valid. More details follow in section
5.

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

4 THERMAL DEGRADATION OF FABRIC

4.1 HEAT TRANSFER CALCULATIONS

The previous sections discussed the way to estimate the thermal flux at the point of interest; at some
distance from the source of the fire. When the thermal flux is known, a temperature of fabric surface
could be calculated. Following equations are describing the mechanism of a heat transfer from a fabric
surface of shelter to the environment and from external radiant source to the fabric surface3:

Radiant heat transfer from fabric to the environment:

= ∙ ∙ ∙( − ) Eq 7

Convective heat transfer from fabric to the environment:

= 18.6 ∙ ( ) .
∙ ∙( − ) Eq 8

Heat transfer from an external source to the fabric surface is equal to the sum of heat transferred from
the same surface:

= + Eq 9

It follows that the heat flux at the fabric surface is:

. Eq 10
Φ = = ∙ ∙( − ) + 18.6 ∙ ( ) ∙( − )

3
Estimating the Thermal Rating of the Fabric Used in the Shelter, Dr. A. A. Mohamad, P.Eng, 2009

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

4.2 MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE HEAT FLUX

As per PVC/PES fabric failure parameters4, the temperature of 250℃ represents the maximum
sustainable fabric surface temperature. Below graph has been developed to show change of required
heat flux at the fabric surface in order to maintain the temperature of fabric at 250℃ in a different
environment; wind speed ranged between 0 and 6 , and ambient temperature ranged
between −10℃ and 30℃. Due to 250℃ is the maximum sustainable temperature of fabric surface,
related heat flux represents maximum sustainable heat flux.

Heat Flux vs Wind Speed

by ambient air temperature TA
20000.00

18000.00

16000.00

14000.00
max (W/m2)

12000.00
-10
10000.00 0
10
8000.00
20
6000.00
30
4000.00

2000.00

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Wind Speed (m/s)

Figure 2: Heat Flux vs Wind Speed by ambient temperature

4
Thermal Degradation – Safe Evac, J Stratton, 2016

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

4.3 FIRE-INDUCED AIR FLOW COOLING EFFECT

The previous section shows that the heat balance of the fabric surface dramatically depends on wind
speed. The air move over fabric surface conveys the heat from the fabric keeping it at the corresponding
equilibrium temperature.

A rapid increase in vertical wall temperature occurs when exposed to significant heat flux. This heated
vertical wall forces an upward flow of air due to the temperature difference between the wall fabric and
ambient air3. The velocity of this air movement is characterized by the following equation:

Eq 11
( )~ ∙ ∙Δ ∙
When Eq 6 is rewritten for the required wind in order to maintain a constant temperature of fabric
surface:

Φ − ∙ ∙( − ) . Eq 12
( ) =
18.6 ∙ ( − )

Required and induced wind speed for 250°C at 12.5kW/m2

6.00

5.00

4.00
Wind Speed (m/s)

3.00
Uw
Uw
2.00

1.00

0.00
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Ambient temperature (°C)

Figure 3: Required and induced wind speed for 250C @12.5kW/m2

Figure 3 shows a change of induced and required wind speed in order to maintain the fabric surface at
250℃ as maximum allowable value. As indicated, for heat flux of 12.5 and ambient temperature
below 36.5℃, the fabric surface temperature will be below 250℃.

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4.4 ESTIMATION OF FABRIC DEGRADATION TIME

Based on the manufacturer’s estimation of available time to initial and to significant degradation of
fabric at 200℃, together with the fact that the maximum allowable fabric temperature of 250℃ is
sustainable for the heat flux of 12.5 , a degradation time could be established.

As per manufacturer’s estimation stating that when the fabric surface temperature is at 200°C the fabric
will begin to degrade after approximately twenty minutes (or 1200s) and will experience significant
degradation after approximately sixty minutes (or 3600s). The important point is that a fabric’s initial
and significant degradation is identical and equal to 1 second when under the self-ignition temperature
of 570℃. All above coupled with an assumption that degradation time changes exponentially with
surface temperature generates curves shown in figure 4.

Initial and Significant Degardation Estimates

4000
y = 300718e-0.022x
3500

3000

2500
Max
Time (s)

2000 Initial
Significant
1500
Expon. (Initial)
y = 55352e-0.019x
1000 Expon. (Significant)

500

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Fabric surface temperature (*C)

Figure 4: Initial and significant degradation time estimation

Using curves in figure 4, it can be established that when fabric temperature is at a maximum of 250℃
which relates the heat flux of 12.5 , initial degradation time is 8 minutes (or 480s) and significant
degradation time is 20 minutes (or 1200s):

= 5.54 ∙ 10 ∙ . ∙ Eq 13

= 3.01 ∙ 10 ∙ . ∙ Eq 14

This means that the structure will lose integrity between 8 to 20 minutes after fabric surface reaches the
temperature of 250℃. Evacuation should be completed before 8 minutes has elapsed.

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5 EXAMPLE

5.1 JET FIRE

As stated in section 3.4, findings related to a pool fire are applied to a jet fire case simulating a small
area (D=0.05m) of vaporization and large fuel flow. Equation Eq 1 could be written as:
̇ = ̇ ∙∆ Eq 15

As per “Types of major chemical/industrial hazards – Fire”5 paragraph about jet fire recognizes that
typically a pressurized release of 8kg/s would have a flame length of 35m. When the mass flow of 8 kg/s
of gasoline and its effective heat of combustion 43.7kJ/g apply to Eq 13, heat released rate is:

̇ = ̇ ∙∆ =8 ∙ 43.7 = 349600

This heat release rate will produce a flame with a height of:

McCaffrey's: = 0.20 ∙ ̇ = 33.02

Heskestad: = 0.23 ∙ ̇ − 1.02 ∙ = 37.47
Alper and Ward: = 0.174 ∙ ∙ ̇ = 28.73

Furthermore, as per “Jet Fires: a “Minor” Fire Hazard?”6 figure 2 indicates a flame length of 9.5m for the
flow of 0.5kg/s through the opening of 43.1mm. Applying identical values to equation Eq 1 yields:

̇ = ̇" ∙ ∙∆ = 350000 ∙ (0.0431) ∙ 43.7 = 22314.85

4

McCaffrey's: = 0.20 ∙ ̇ = 10.98

Heskestad: = 0.23 ∙ ̇ − 1.02 ∙ = 12.11
Alper and Ward: = 0.174 ∙ ∙ ̇ = 9.55

All the above confirms that approximation of pool fire case to jet fire is valid.

5
http://www.hrdp-idrm.in/e5783/e17327/e27015/e27713/
6
Jet Fires: a “Minor” Fire Hazard?, Joaquim Casal*, Mercedes Gomez-Mares, Miguel Munoz, Adriana Palacios,
2012

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

Example: The source of a radiant heat generates a heat flux of 6.11 at a distance of 90m, A2 case as
per figure 5. As per equation Eq 6, the heat release rate is:

∙ ̇ ̇ ∙4∙ ∙ 6.11 ∙4∙ ∙ 90

̇= ⟹ ̇ = = = 1382049.44
4∙ ∙ 0.45

Figure 5: Singapore case location

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5.2 SAFE EVACUATION TIME AS PER GIVEN HEAT FLUX

Let us calculate safe evacuation time for a given heat flux of 6.11 at shelter edge, location 1 in figure
5. The shelter is located in Singapore where, as per ASHRAE annual mean wind speed is 2.1m/s. As per
equation Eq 10, given heat flux and win speed yields a temperature of 182.5℃ at the fabric surface.

In figure 6, curves show a change of the required heat flux in order to maintain a fabric surface
temperature at 182.5℃. It is noticeable that the required heat flux for wind 2.1m/s is about
6.11kW/m2.

Heat Flux vs Wind Speed

by ambient air temperature TA
18000.00

16000.00

14000.00

12000.00
max (W/m2)

-10
10000.00
0
8000.00
10

6000.00 20
30
4000.00

2000.00

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Wind Speed (m/s)

Figure 6: Heat Flux vs Wind Speed by ambient temperature

Similarly, Figure 7 shows a change of induced and required wind speed in order to maintain the fabric
surface at 182.5℃. As indicated, for heat flux of 6.11 and ambient temperature below 56℃, the
fabric surface temperature will be below 182.5℃.

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Required and induced wind speed for 182.5°C at 6.11kW/m2

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00
Wind Speed (m/s)

2.50

2.00 Uw
Uw
1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Ambient temperature (°C)

Figure 7: Required and induced wind speed for 182.5°C at 6.11kW/m2

In the end, as per equation Eq 13, initial degradation time, in this case, would be 28 minutes and
significant degradation time, as per equation Eq 14 would be 90minutes.

. ∙ . ∙ .
= 5.54 ∙ 10 ∙ = 5.54 ∙ 10 ∙ = 28
. ∙ . ∙ .
= 3.01 ∙ 10 ∙ = 3.01 ∙ 10 ∙ = 90

This means that the structure will lose integrity between 28 to 90 minutes after fabric surface reaches
the temperature of 182.5℃.

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5.3 KEVLAR FABRIC AS A PROTECTIVE LAYER

In order to maintain the fly surface temperature below the critical one, a standard design has been
altered by adding a protective layer, made out of the KEVLAR fabric (Figure 8). The KEVLAR fabric has
thermal properties above the standard fabrics utilized by DAS.

Kevlar

Fly

Figure 8: Altered DAS design (KEVLAR layer)

This layer is positioned at an optimal distance from the DAS outer layer, the fly layer. This distance
creates an air gap where the forced flow of air is introduced in order to remove extended heat while
maintaining the surface temperature of the fly below the critical temperature.

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 Thermal Blast: Safe Evacuation

In order to understand the amount of the heat required to be removed by forced air, a standard DAS
thermal estimation calculation7 was performed as follows:

 The first run mimicked an accident scenario setting when the shelter is exposed to a thermal flux
of 6.11 . As discussed in previous sections, this thermal flux generates a temperature of
182.5℃ at the fly surface. To simulate this scenario, the exterior temperature is set at 225℃.
 Similarly, when the shelter is exposed to a thermal flux of 14 the generated temperature of
the top surface is at 320℃. The exterior temperature is set to 360℃ in order to simulate the
required temperature at the top surface.

The internal shelter temperature was set at 30℃ for both runs. The results of the calculations are
shown below:

Thermal flux Φ Temperature T(oil, ext) Thermal load Q

[kW/m2] [°C] [kW]
6.11 182.5 1164.28
14.00 320 2148.93
Table 1: Thermal loads

The difference in thermal loads (∆ = 984.65 ) represents the amount of heat required to be taken
away in order to maintain the fly temperature at required 182.5℃. As mentioned, the thermal load
difference is taken by forced air flow through the air gap created by adding an additional protective
layer, the KEVLAR layer. For the purpose of this report, the thickness of the air gap is set to = 0.1 .

Kevlar
Fly

Forced air flow through A2

Forced air flow through A1
Figure 9: Thermal blast shelter layers

7
DAS – HRE v1.3.6 + 5.0 thermal requirement estimator

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There are two cross sections of the air gap that can be utilized as a forced air introduction section. As
shown in Figure 9, one is along the length of the shelter ( ) where the other one follows the curved
shape of the shelter ( ). Which section is to be utilized depends on the direction of possible thermal
hazard.

Below table (Table 2) shows calculated required temperatures of forced air , when its velocity is set to
v=1.4m/s:

v=1.4 m/s A V V dT Ts
m2 m3/s cfm K C
1 6.71 9.39 19892.89 96.11 86.39
2 4.28 5.99 12683.75 150.73 31.77

Table 2: Required forced air temperature (v=1 m/s)

As indicated, if the forced air is introduced to the side of the shelter ( ) required temperature is
78.85℃. But, if forced air introduction section is at the face of shelter ( ) required temperature is
10℃. This is due to the difference in the subject section areas.

At another hand, if the forced air temperature is set to the value of the internal shelter temperature of
30℃, the calculation yields different values for forced air velocity shown in table 3:

Ts=30C A V V dT velocity
m2 m3/s cfm K m/s
1 6.71 13.65 28920.60 66.11 2.04
2 4.28 7.47 15835.50 120.73 1.75

Table 3: Required forced air velocity (Ts=30C)

A further detailed analysis would demonstrate that the values presented above are conservative or
understated. This is due to the influence of thermal barriers located around the shelter as shown in
Figure 8. The non-combustible thermal barriers are strategically positioned around the shelter in order
to absorb and redirect thermal blast. This means that the shelter would be exposed to less thermal flux
resulting in less heat being required to be mitigated.

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