Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - [email protected] - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wond
a deadly weapon if you wish
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company NOCIL LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 125 Remember! Focus on decision
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 16.6
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 2,063

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 7.2% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've des
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 13.5% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 16.3% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.0 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can co
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 14.1%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 13.1
Latest P/E (x) 14,500.5
 Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
a deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
NOCIL LTD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Equity Share Capital 161 161 161 161 161 161 164 164 165 166
Reserves 150 173 204 217 254 309 750 882 998 1,020
Borrowings - 80 147 152 147 26 15 5 - 9
Other Liabilities 135 137 147 203 193 186 233 279 279 248
Total 446 552 659 732 755 682 1,161 1,331 1,442 1,442

Net Block 99 93 320 320 311 307 543 528 657 797
Capital Work in Progress 35 128 4 3 3 6 4 42 131 156
Investments 0 0 22 22 22 22 176 281 130 54
Other Assets 312 330 312 386 418 347 438 480 524 434
Total 446 552 659 732 755 682 1,161 1,331 1,442 1,442

Working Capital 177 193 165 184 226 161 205 200 245 186
Debtors 87 104 111 148 167 151 167 243 232 203
Inventory 107 114 116 160 188 133 115 155 171 136
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 70 78 83 90 85 77 82 92 81 88
Inventory Turnover 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.6 5.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.1
Debt/Equity - 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 - 0.0
Return on Equity 11% 10% 12% 6% 14% 17% 11% 16% 16% 11%
Return on Capital Employed 16% 12% 9% 10% 18% 26% 16% 24% 24% 13%

Capex 98 111 18 5 13 254 47 242 199

 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
NOCIL LTD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Trailing
Sales 453 483 488 596 719 715 742 964 1,043 846 846
% Growth YOY 7% 1% 22% 21% -1% 4% 30% 8% -19%
Expenses 401 446 467 534 605 575 583 696 750 668 668
Material Cost (% of Sales) 62% 62% 63% 60% 61% 44% 45% 46% 48% 44%
Power and Fuel 10% 11% 10% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 9% Check for wide fluctuations in key expense items. For
manufacturing firms, check their material costs etc. For
Other Mfr. Exp 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%
services firms, look at employee costs.
Employee Cost 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 7% 7% 9%
Selling and Admin Cost 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5%
Operating Profit 52 37 21 62 114 140 160 268 293 178 178
Operating Profit Margin 12% 8% 4% 10% 16% 20% 22% 28% 28% 21% 21%
Other Income 6 22 36 9 3 3 9 12 10 9 9
Other Income as % of Sales 1.3% 4.5% 7.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
Depreciation 9 10 9 19 15 15 20 24 24 34 34
Interest 0 0 4 17 17 9 2 1 1 1 1
Interest Coverage(Times) 406 113 13 3 6 14 67 210 442 116 116
Profit before tax (PBT) 49 48 44 35 86 119 147 255 278 152 152
% Growth YOY -1% -9% -20% 146% 38% 23% 74% 9% -45%
PBT Margin 11% 10% 9% 6% 12% 17% 20% 26% 27% 18% 18%
Tax 15 13 2 11 29 41 50 85 93 22 22
% Tax 31.0% 28.0% 3.8% 31.9% 33.8% 34.2% 33.8% 33.3% 33.4% 14.2% 14.2%
Net profit 34 35 42 24 57 78 97 170 185 131 131 C PAT 983
% Growth YOY 3% 22% -43% 139% 37% 24% 75% 9% -29%
Net Profit Margin 7% 7% 9% 4% 8% 11% 13% 18% 18% 15% 15%
EPS 2.1 2.1 2.6 1.5 3.6 4.9 5.9 10.3 11.2 7.9 7.9
% Growth YOY 3% 22% -43% 139% 37% 22% 74% 8% -29%
Price to earning 7.9 7.8 5.3 10.5 10.6 9.5 15.8 18.6 13.1 8.3 15.8
Price 17 17 14 16 38 46 94 192 146 66 125
Dividend Payout 28.8% 27.9% 22.9% 40.5% 28.2% 24.6% 30.3% 24.2% 22.4% 31.7%
Market Cap 265 269 225 249 603 742 1,535 3,156 2,422 1,090 Increase in M cap 825
Retained Earnings 24 25 32 14 41 59 68 129 143 89 Total Retained earning 625
Dividend Paid 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 16.1 19.3 29.4 41.1 41.4 41.4 Total Dividend Paid 228

Buffett's $1 Test 1.3

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 7.2% 8.2% 3.3% 4.5%
PBT Growth 13.5% 19.5% 12.1% 1.2%
PBT Margin 15.5% 17.9% 21.5% 23.7%
Price to Earning 10.7 12.3 13.1 13.3

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
NOCIL LTD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 26 -26 -0 44 30 170 142 102 164 179 832
% Growth YoY -199% -98% -9114% -32% 467% -17% -28% 60% 9%
Cash from Investing Activity -5 -50 -79 -18 -5 -12 -11 -141 -101 -106 -528
Cash from Financing Activity -28 69 52 -23 -33 -151 -31 -43 -50 -101 -338
Net Cash Flow -7 -7 -28 3 -8 8 101 -82 13 -28 -34
CFO/Sales 6% -5% 0% 7% 4% 24% 19% 11% 16% 21%
CFO/Net Profit 78% -74% -1% 185% 53% 218% 146% 60% 89% 137%
Capex** - 98 111 18 5 13 254 47 242 199
FCF 26 -124 -112 26 25 157 -112 55 -78 -20 -156
Average FCF (3 Years) -14
FCF Growth YoY -576% -10% -123% -5% 534% -171% -149% -242% -75% c PAT 983
FCF/Sales 6% -26% -23% 4% 3% 22% -15% 6% -8% -2% c CFO 832
FCF/Net Profit 78% -358% -265% 109% 43% 201% -115% 32% -42% -15% FCF -156

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
NOCIL LTD
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Sales Growth 6.7% 1.0% 22.1% 20.6% -0.5% 3.8% 29.9% 8.2%
PBT Growth -1.2% -8.7% -20.0% 146.1% 37.9% 23.4% 73.5% 9.0%
Net Profit Growth 3.1% 22.0% -43.4% 139.4% 37.1% 24.1% 75.0% 8.8%
Dividend Growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.6% 20.0% 52.6% 39.7% 0.6%
Operating Cash Flow Growth -198.9% -98.1% ### -32.0% 467.0% -16.5% -28.0% 60.3%
Free Cash Flow Growth -576.3% -9.8% ### -4.8% 534.4% ### ### ###

Operating Margin 11.5% 7.6% 4.3% 10.5% 15.9% 19.6% 21.5% 27.8% 28.1%
PBT Margin 10.7% 9.9% 9.0% 5.9% 12.0% 16.6% 19.8% 26.4% 26.6%
Net Margin 7.4% 7.1% 8.6% 4.0% 7.9% 10.9% 13.1% 17.6% 17.7%

Debtor Days 69.9 78.4 82.9 90.4 84.9 77.1 81.9 92.1 81.3
Inventory Turnover 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.8 5.4 6.5 6.2 6.1
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.6 5.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.4 1.8 1.6
Debt/Equity - 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 -
Debt/Assets 0.0% 14.6% 22.3% 20.8% 19.5% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Interest Coverage (Times) 405.8 112.6 12.7 3.0 6.2 13.7 67.1 209.8 441.9
Return on Equity 10.8% 10.3% 11.5% 6.3% 13.8% 16.7% 10.6% 16.2% 15.9%
Return on Capital Employed 15.7% 11.7% 9.3% 9.9% 18.3% 25.9% 16.1% 24.3% 23.9%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 26 -124 -112 26 25 157 -112 55 -78
Mar/20
-18.9%
-45.2%
-29.3%
0.1%
9.4%
-74.8%

21.1%
18.0%
15.4%

87.6
6.2
1.1
0.0
0.6%
116.4
11.0%
12.9%
-20
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
30% Profit Margin Capital Allo
30%
Check for a rising trend an
25% 25% Numbers > 20% long term
has zero/marginal debt. C
20% 20%
15% 15%
10% 10%
5% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 5%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/11 Jan/13 J

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

1,200
Revenue Revenue and Pr
200%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a r
1,000 Compare gro
150%
800 100%
600 50%
400 0%
Jan/12 Jan/14
200 -50%
- -100%
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19
Revenue Grow
Net Profit Gro

300 Profit Over Time 200 CheckOperating and

Check for a rising trend. for positive numb
250 150 which are rising over tim
200 100
50
150
-
100 -50 Jan/11 Jan/13
50 -100
- -150
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash F

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Operating Margin 12% 8% 4% 10% 16% 20% 22% 28% 28%
PBT Margin 11% 10% 9% 6% 12% 17% 20% 26% 27%
Net Margin 7% 7% 9% 4% 8% 11% 13% 18% 18%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
ROE 11% 10% 12% 6% 14% 17% 11% 16% 16%
ROCE 16% 12% 9% 10% 18% 26% 16% 24% 24%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Revenue Growth 7% 1% 22% 21% -1% 4% 30% 8% -19%
PBT Growth -1% -9% -20% 146% 38% 23% 74% 9% -45%
Net Profit Growth 3% 22% -43% 139% 37% 24% 75% 9% -29%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Revenue 453 483 488 596 719 715 742 964 1,043
PBT 49 48 44 35 86 119 147 255 278
Net Profit 34 35 42 24 57 78 97 170 185

Cash Flows
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Operating Cash Flow 26 -26 -0 44 30 170 142 102 164
Free Cash Flow 26 -124 -112 26 25 157 -112 55 -78
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
% companies would be 31st
March of that year
%
%
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
0 which are rising over time.
0
0

0 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/20
21%
18%
15%

Mar/20
11%
13%

Mar/20
846
152
131

Mar/20
179
-20
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 62% 62% 63% 60% 61% 44% 45% 46% 48% 44%
Change in Inventory 4% 1% -2% 1% 7% -6% -4% 1% 3% -2%
Power and Fuel 10% 11% 10% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 9%
Other Mfr. Exp 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%
Employee Cost 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 7% 7% 9%
Selling and Admin Cost 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5%
Other Expenses 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4%
Operating Profit 4% 5% 8% 8% 2% 32% 29% 26% 22% 25%
Other Income 1% 4% 7% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Depreciation 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4%
Interest 0% 0% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 11% 10% 9% 6% 12% 17% 20% 26% 27% 18%
Tax 3% 3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 7% 9% 9% 3%
Net Profit 7% 7% 9% 4% 8% 11% 13% 18% 18% 15%
Dividend Amount 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 36% 29% 24% 22% 21% 24% 14% 12% 11% 11%
Reserves 34% 31% 31% 30% 34% 45% 65% 66% 69% 71%
Borrowings 0% 15% 22% 21% 20% 4% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Other Liabilities 30% 25% 22% 28% 26% 27% 20% 21% 19% 17%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 22% 17% 49% 44% 41% 45% 47% 40% 46% 55%
Capital Work in Progress 8% 23% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 9% 11%
Investments 0% 0% 3% 3% 3% 3% 15% 21% 9% 4%
Other Assets 70% 60% 47% 53% 55% 51% 38% 36% 36% 30%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 19% 19% 17% 20% 22% 22% 14% 18% 16% 14%
Inventory 24% 21% 18% 22% 25% 19% 10% 12% 12% 9%
Cash & Bank 10% 7% 2% 2% 1% 2% 11% 2% 3% 1%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

NOCIL LTD NOCIL LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (16) (15) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (19) (15) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (22) (16) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (24) (15) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (26) (15) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (29) (15) Sales 3% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (30) (14) PBT 12% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (32) (13) FCF -196% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (34) (12) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (35) (11) 10 FY27
10 -352 (113) 10
Intrinsic Value 5,575 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,063 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -63% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

NOCIL LTD
Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(17) (15) Year 4-6 15%
(21) (16) Year 7-10 10%
(25) (18) Discount Rate 12%
(28) (18)
(33) (19)
(38) (19)
(41) (19)
(46) (18)
(50) (18)
(55) (18)
(827) (266)
Intrinsic Value 5,384
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,063
Premium/(Discount) to IV -62%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name NOCIL LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/20 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 132.2 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 9.0 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 3,504 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 2,063 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
NOCIL LTD
Mar/20

132.2
8.5
18.0

5,884
2,063

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
NOCIL LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (14) (326)

2,063
Years 1-5 6-10 -16%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,820)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (16) 15% (15)
2 (19) 15% (15)
3 (22) 15% (16)
4 (25) 15% (16)
5 (29) 15% (16)
6 (32) 12% (16)
7 (36) 12% (16)
8 (40) 12% (16)
9 (45) 12% (16)
10 (51) 12% (16)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (52)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (159)
Terminal Value (167)
Total PV of Cash Flows (326)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,063

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
NOCIL LTD
Particulars Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 34 35 42 24 57 78 97
Net Profit Margin 7% 7% 9% 4% 8% 11% 13%
Return on Equity 11% 10% 12% 6% 14% 17% 11%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 8%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 282
Current P/E (x) 15.8
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 5,642
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 1,817
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,063

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
170 185 131 16% 18%
18% 18% 15%
16% 16% 11%
 Intrinsic Value Range
NOCIL LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair
Dhandho 5,575 5,384 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham 3,504 5,884 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
DCF -326 understand this business?
Expected Return 1,817
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 2,063 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
NOCIL LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20
Sales - - 268 272 261 242 230 210 194 213
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -14% -23% -26% -12%
Expenses - - 188 192 188 182 173 161 158 176
Operating Profit - - 80 80 73 60 57 48 37 37
Other Income - - 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 3
Depreciation - - 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9
Interest - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax - - 77 77 69 55 51 42 29 30
PBT Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 29% 28% 26% 23% 22% 20% 15% 14%
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -34% -45% -57% -46%
Tax - - 26 24 24 19 18 -13 8 8
Net profit - - 51 53 45 36 33 55 21 22
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -35% 4% -53% -40%
OPM 30% 29% 28% 25% 25% 23% 19% 17%
COMPANY NAME NOCIL LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 16.57
Face Value 10
Current Price 124.5
Market Capitalization 2062.66

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Sales 452.81 483.36 488.18 596.14 719 715.21
Raw Material Cost 279.14 301.95 306.18 357.51 437.96 315.58
Change in Inventory 16.51 7.09 -9.52 8.49 49.39 -43.92
Power and Fuel 46.04 51.97 51.17 63.25 65.81 54.37
Other Mfr. Exp 28 29.46 28.03 33.57 43.97 45.53
Employee Cost 30.51 36.03 37.19 44.77 50.28 60.77
Selling and admin 18.11 18.27 20.1 23.84 30.45 30.61
Other Expenses 15.44 15.83 15.06 19.32 25.46 24.56
Other Income 5.7 21.59 35.65 8.8 2.78 3.04
Depreciation 9.08 10.1 9.01 18.74 14.5 14.63
Interest 0.12 0.43 3.75 17.39 16.51 9.34
Profit before tax 48.58 48 43.82 35.04 86.23 118.94
Tax 15.07 13.45 1.68 11.19 29.14 40.68
Net profit 33.51 34.55 42.13 23.85 57.1 78.26
Dividend Amount 9.65 9.65 9.65 9.65 16.08 19.29

Quarters
Report Date Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
Sales 268.09 271.99 261.24 241.58
Expenses 188.11 192.19 188.21 181.67
Other Income 2.66 2.81 2.12 2.37
Depreciation 5.75 5.91 5.96 6.7
Interest 0.27 0.13 0.07 0.16
Profit before tax 76.62 76.57 69.12 55.42
Tax 25.71 23.72 24.25 19.23
Net profit 50.91 52.85 44.87 36.19
Operating Profit 79.98 79.8 73.03 59.91

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Equity Share Capital 160.79 160.79 160.79 160.79 160.79 160.79
Reserves 150.13 173.36 204.2 216.77 254.17 309.14
Borrowings 80.46 146.83 152.22 147.31 25.87
Other Liabilities 135.15 137.27 147.02 202.57 192.79 186.02
Total 446.07 551.88 658.84 732.35 755.06 681.82
Net Block 98.59 93.43 320.49 320.42 310.86 306.6
Capital Work in Progress 35.33 128.49 3.65 3.11 3.42 6.08
Investments 0.21 0.18 22.43 22.43 22.43 22.43
Other Assets 311.94 329.78 312.27 386.39 418.35 346.71
Total 446.07 551.88 658.84 732.35 755.06 681.82
Receivables 86.68 103.79 110.87 147.72 167.19 151.05
Inventory 107.02 114.33 115.71 160.13 187.73 132.63
Cash & Bank 46.47 39.88 12.17 15.27 7.55 15.38
No. of Equity Shares 160787000 160787000 160786980 160786980 160786980 160786980
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Cash from Operating Activity 25.99 -25.7 -0.49 44.17 30.05 170.37
Cash from Investing Activity -4.72 -50.07 -78.93 -17.94 -5.2 -11.94
Cash from Financing Activity -28.02 68.98 51.51 -23.21 -32.64 -150.77
Net Cash Flow -6.75 -6.79 -27.91 3.02 -7.8 7.67

PRICE: 16.5 16.7 14 15.5 37.5 46.15

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 16.08 16.08 16.08 16.08 16.08 16.08
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

742.21 963.96 1042.9 846.29
333.41 447.13 497.85 369.79
-26.17 6.51 31.03 -18.05
51.78 65.74 75.52 72.2
46.75 54.47 59.15 57.04
64.19 71.19 70.51 76.73
30.42 31.25 37.99 39.12
29.85 32.27 40.19 35.13
9.09 11.53 9.96 9.17
19.73 24.03 24.31 33.74
2.22 1.22 0.63 1.32
146.78 254.7 277.74 152.34
49.67 84.77 92.89 21.67
97.11 169.93 184.85 130.67
29.44 41.12 41.36 41.4

Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

229.59 209.73 194.31 212.66
173.01 161.26 157.73 176.06
2.59 2.07 1.39 3.12
7.97 8.03 8.26 9.48
0.32 0.33 0.32 0.35
50.88 42.18 29.39 29.89
18 -12.75 8.4 8.02
32.88 54.93 20.99 21.87
56.58 48.47 36.58 36.6

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

 163.58 164.48 165.42 165.61
749.55 882.19 997.59 1019.63
15.00 5.00 9.17
232.81 279.45 279.26 247.83
1160.94 1331.12 1442.27 1442.24
542.57 527.74 657.05 797.39
4.47 42.47 131.27 156.34
176.35 281.2 129.73 54.4
437.55 479.71 524.22 434.11
1160.94 1331.12 1442.27 1442.24
166.54 243.36 232.19 203.21
114.58 155.27 170.71 136.43
122.22 32.04 39.93 13.83
163583180 164477680 165418830 165605955

10 10 10 10

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

142.19 102.34 164.06 179.4
-10.51 -141.36 -101.21 -106.27
-30.58 -42.55 -50.2 -100.77
101.1 -81.57 12.65 -27.64

93.8 191.85 146.45 65.8

16.36 16.45 16.54 16.56

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