Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - [email protected] - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company GKW LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 781 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 0.6
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 466

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) -16.0% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 5.9% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 10.4% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) - analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 4.7%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) #DIV/0!
Latest P/E (x) 31.1
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
GKW LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Reserves 20 31 55 69 81 85 85 96 119 373
Borrowings - - - - - - - - - -
Other Liabilities 18 14 14 13 14 12 13 17 17 17
Total 44 52 74 88 100 103 103 119 142 396

Net Block 10 9 8 7 6 7 6 7 9 12
Capital Work in Progress 0 - - - - - 1 11 0 0
Investments 0 1 9 22 25 25 31 56 82 351
Other Assets 34 41 58 58 69 71 66 46 52 33
Total 44 52 74 88 100 103 103 119 142 396

Working Capital 16 27 44 45 56 59 54 28 35 16
Debtors 1 2 3 5 2 1 2 0 0 0
Inventory 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 - - -
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 2 24 23 56 19 27 143 11 2 3

Inventory Turnover 16 5 12 13 28 22 7 - - -
Fixed Asset Turnover 8.8 2.9 5.1 4.6 5.8 2.6 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.5
Debt/Equity - - - - - - - - - -
Return on Equity 13% 30% 39% 18% 14% 4% 1% 11% 5% 2%
Return on Capital Employed 30% 36% 36% 19% 18% 5% 2% 12% 6% 2%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
GKW LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 86 25 41 33 37 18 5 12 17 18 25
% Growth YOY -71% 62% -20% 11% -52% -71% 133% 42% 5%
Expenses 89 15 28 33 31 19 11 9 10 9 10
Material Cost (% of Sales) 68% 12% 32% 57% 43% 54% 0% 0% 0% 0% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 10% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 9% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 6% 5% 1% 1% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 7% 13% 11% 16% 13% 12% 86% 22% 20% 20% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 6% 22% 12% 13% 11% 28% 97% 40% 30% 26%
Operating Profit -3 10 13 -0 5 -2 -6 3 7 9 15
Operating Profit Margin -4% 39% 33% -1% 15% -10% -115% 22% 44% 48% 62%
Other Income 17 4 9 15 11 7 8 9 1 1 1
Other Income as % of Sales 20.3% 17.7% 22.5% 47.0% 30.4% 39.7% 149.9% 78.2% 2.9% 3.7% 3.1%
Depreciation 7 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
Interest 2 0 - - - - - - - - -
Interest Coverage(Times) 3 1,351 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Profit before tax (PBT) 5 14 22 14 16 4 2 12 8 9 16
% Growth YOY 158% 61% -35% 11% -72% -61% 599% -36% 16%
PBT Margin 6% 53% 53% 43% 43% 25% 33% 98% 44% 49% 63%
Tax 2 2 -2 0 3 1 1 1 1 0 1
Net profit 3 11 24 14 12 4 1 11 6 8 15
% Growth YOY 228% 112% -42% -11% -70% -71% 939% -43% 32%
Net Profit Margin 4% 44% 58% 42% 34% 21% 21% 93% 37% 47% 60%
EPS 5.7 18.7 39.7 23.0 20.6 6.2 1.8 18.6 10.5 13.9 25.1
% Growth YOY 228% 112% -42% -11% -70% -71% 939% -43% 32%
Price to earning 31.1
Price - - - - - - - - - - 781
Dividend Payout 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Market Cap - - - - - - - - - -
Retained Earnings 3 11 24 14 12 4 1 11 6 8
Buffett's $1 Test -

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth -16.0% -11.2% -13.4% 51.2%
PBT Growth 5.9% -12.2% -10.9% 73.5%
PBT Margin 44.7% 47.8% 49.8% 63.9%
Price to Earning #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
GKW LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) -45 5 17 -25 13 -3 -4 6 0 1 -34
% Growth YoY -112% 236% -242% -153% -121% 60% -240% -99% 2000%
Cash from Investing Activity -88 1 -5 -9 0 -7 5 -7 -2 -0 -110
Cash from Financing Activity -2 - - - - - - - - - -2
Net Cash Flow -134 6 12 -33 13 -9 1 -1 -2 1 -145
CFO/Sales -52% 20% 42% -75% 35% -15% -83% 50% 0% 6%
CFO/Net Profit -1307% 46% 73% -179% 105% -72% -399% 54% 1% 13%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -360 -206 -347 -590 -594 -940 -1,160 -1,632 -1,238 -823 -7,890
Average FCF (3 Years) -1,231
FCF Growth YoY -43% 68% 70% 1% 58% 23% 41% -24% -34%
FCF/Sales -420% -816% -845% -1791% -1623% -5354% ### ### -7295% -4622%
FCF/Net Profit ### -1848% -1465% -4291% -4842% ### ### ### ### -9929%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
GKW LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth -70.5% 62.2% -19.8% 11.2% -52.0% -70.7% 132.6% 41.7%
PBT Growth 157.6% 61.1% -35.4% 11.5% -72.3% -61.3% 598.8% -35.7%
Net Profit Growth 227.6% 112.0% -42.0% -10.6% -69.8% -71.2% 939.3% -43.4%
Dividend Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Operating Cash Flow Growth -111.5% 236.0% ### ### ### 59.9% ### -99.2%
Free Cash Flow Growth -42.6% 68.0% 70.0% 0.8% 58.2% 23.5% 40.7% -24.1%

Operating Margin -3.7% 39.1% 32.6% -1.2% 14.8% -10.3% ### 21.7% 43.7%
PBT Margin 6.1% 53.4% 53.0% 42.7% 42.8% 24.7% 32.6% 98.0% 44.5%
Net Margin 4.0% 44.2% 57.7% 41.8% 33.6% 21.1% 20.8% 92.8% 37.1%

Debtor Days 2.3 23.5 22.5 55.8 19.1 26.6 143.2 11.0 1.5
Inventory Turnover 16.2 5.2 11.6 12.6 28.4 21.7 7.5 - -
Fixed Asset Turnover 8.8 2.9 5.1 4.6 5.8 2.6 0.9 1.8 1.9
Debt/Equity - - - - - - - - -
Debt/Assets 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Interest Coverage (Times) 3.2 1,351.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Return on Equity 13.1% 30.1% 39.0% 18.4% 14.1% 4.1% 1.2% 10.9% 5.0%
Return on Capital Employed 29.5% 36.4% 35.8% 18.8% 18.0% 4.8% 1.9% 11.5% 6.0%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -360 -206 -347 -590 -594 -940 -1,160 -1,632 -1,238
Mar/18
4.9%
16.2%
31.8%
#DIV/0!
###
-33.5%

48.2%
49.2%
46.5%

3.1
-
1.5
-
0.0%
#DIV/0!
2.2%
2.3%
-823
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
 150% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
50%
Check for a rising trend and
100% 40% Numbers > 20% long term a
has zero/marginal debt. Com
50%
30%
0%
20%
-50%Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

-100% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 10%

Compare with a close competitor
-150% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

100
Revenue Revenue and Pro
1000%
Check for a ris
90 Check for a rising trend. Compare grow
80 800%
70
600%
60
50 400%
40
30 200%
20
0%
10
Jan/10 Jan/12
- -200%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

25 Profit Over Time Operating and

500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
which are rising over tim
20 -
Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
15 -500
10 -1,000
5 -1,500
- -2,000
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin -4% 39% 33% -1% 15% -10% -115% 22% 44%
PBT Margin 6% 53% 53% 43% 43% 25% 33% 98% 44%
Net Margin 4% 44% 58% 42% 34% 21% 21% 93% 37%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 13% 30% 39% 18% 14% 4% 1% 11% 5%
ROCE 30% 36% 36% 19% 18% 5% 2% 12% 6%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth -71% 62% -20% 11% -52% -71% 133% 42% 5%
PBT Growth 158% 61% -35% 11% -72% -61% 599% -36% 16%
Net Profit Growth 228% 112% -42% -11% -70% -71% 939% -43% 32%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 86 25 41 33 37 18 5 12 17
PBT 5 14 22 14 16 4 2 12 8
Net Profit 3 11 24 14 12 4 1 11 6

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow -45 5 17 -25 13 -3 -4 6 0
Free Cash Flow -360 -206 -347 -590 -594 -940 -1,160 -1,632 -1,238
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
% which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
% March of that year

%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%

%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/18
48%
49%
47%

Mar/18
2%
2%

Mar/18
18
9
8

Mar/18
1
-823
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 68% 12% 32% 57% 43% 54% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Change in Inventory 6% 0% -3% -3% -3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 10% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 9% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 6% 5% 1% 1%
Employee Cost 7% 13% 11% 16% 13% 12% 86% 22% 20% 20%
Selling and Admin Cost 6% 22% 12% 13% 11% 28% 97% 40% 30% 26%
Other Expenses 10% 7% 4% 6% 8% 11% 22% 10% 4% 4%
Operating Profit -15% 40% 39% 4% 22% -13% -115% 22% 44% 48%
Other Income 20% 18% 22% 47% 30% 40% 150% 78% 3% 4%
Depreciation 8% 3% 2% 3% 2% 5% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Interest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 6% 53% 53% 43% 43% 25% 33% 98% 44% 49%
Tax 2% 9% -5% 1% 9% 4% 12% 5% 7% 3%
Net Profit 4% 44% 58% 42% 34% 21% 21% 93% 37% 47%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 13% 12% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2%
Reserves 45% 60% 74% 78% 80% 82% 82% 80% 84% 94%
Borrowings 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Liabilities 42% 28% 18% 15% 14% 12% 12% 15% 12% 4%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 22% 17% 11% 8% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 3%
Capital Work in Progress 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 10% 0% 0%
Investments 0% 3% 11% 25% 25% 24% 30% 47% 57% 89%
Other Assets 78% 80% 78% 66% 69% 69% 64% 38% 36% 8%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 1% 3% 3% 6% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Inventory 12% 10% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Cash & Bank 43% 50% 51% 39% 23% 38% 28% 19% 7% 5%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

GKW LTD GKW LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,416) (1,264) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,628) (1,298) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,872) (1,333) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (2,059) (1,309) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (2,265) (1,285) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (2,492) (1,263) Sales -13% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (2,617) (1,184) PBT -11% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,747) (1,110) FCF 7% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,885) (1,040) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (3,029) (975) 10 FY27
10 -30,290 (9,753) 10
Intrinsic Value (15,984) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 466 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -103% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

GKW LTD
Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,477) (1,319) Year 4-6 15%
(1,773) (1,413) Year 7-10 10%
(2,127) (1,514) Discount Rate 12%
(2,446) (1,555)
(2,813) (1,596)
(3,235) (1,639)
(3,559) (1,610)
(3,915) (1,581)
(4,306) (1,553)
(4,737) (1,525)
(71,051) (22,876)
Intrinsic Value (32,353)
Current Mkt. Cap. 466
Premium/(Discount) to IV -101%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name GKW LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 6.1 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (3.8) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 6 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 466 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
GKW LTD
Mar/18

6.1
8.5
(7.6)

(40)
466

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
GKW LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (1,231) ###

466
Years 1-5 6-10 -6009%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,829)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (1,416) 15% (1,264)
2 (1,628) 15% (1,298)
3 (1,872) 15% (1,333)
4 (2,153) 15% (1,368)
5 (2,476) 15% (1,405)
6 (2,773) 12% (1,405)
7 (3,106) 12% (1,405)
8 (3,479) 12% (1,405)
9 (3,896) 12% (1,405)
10 (4,364) 12% (1,405)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (4,451)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 466

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
GKW LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 3 11 24 14 12 4 1
Net Profit Margin 4% 44% 58% 42% 34% 21% 21%
Return on Equity 13% 30% 39% 18% 14% 4% 1%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 26
Current P/E (x) 56.3
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 515
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 166
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 466

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
11 6 8 10% -8%
93% 37% 47%
11% 5% 2%
 Intrinsic Value Range
GKW LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho -15,984 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 6 -40 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF -28,023 understand this business?
Expected Return 166
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 466 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
GKW LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 5 3 5 4 5 7 2 3 8 13
% Growth YOY -2% 175% -67% -31% 68% 75%
Expenses 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2
Operating Profit 2 1 2 2 3 5 -1 1 5 10
Other Income 0 0 0 0 - 0 1 0 - 0
Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest 0 0 - - - - - - - -
Profit before tax 2 1 2 2 2 5 -0 1 5 10
PBT Margin 43% 27% 47% 41% 51% 69% -20% 17% 67% 82%
% Growth YOY 16% 612% -114% -71% 120% 108%
Tax 0 0 0 0 0 -0 - 0 0 0
Net profit 2 0 2 2 2 5 -0 0 5 10
% Growth YOY 13% 1634% -117% -79% 151% 96%
OPM 43% 30% 47% 42% 54% 69% -45% 21% 68% 81%
COMPANY NAME GKW LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 0.60
Face Value 10
Current Price 781.15
Market Capitalization 466.35

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 85.73 25.29 41.03 32.91 36.6 17.55
Raw Material Cost 58.48 3.03 13.23 18.71 15.69 9.54
Change in Inventory 5.01 -0.09 -1.3 -0.9 -1.24 0.23
Power and Fuel 8.34 0.63 0.73 0.88 0.8 0.55
Other Mfr. Exp 7.32 1.07 1.22 0.97 1.61 0.55
Employee Cost 6.35 3.34 4.49 5.4 4.67 2.09
Selling and admin 5.22 5.52 4.9 4.41 4.06 4.95
Other Expenses 8.22 1.71 1.78 2.04 3.11 1.91
Other Income 17.41 4.47 9.22 15.46 11.11 6.96
Depreciation 6.56 0.86 0.85 1.02 0.88 0.81
Interest 2.42 0.01
Profit before tax 5.24 13.5 21.75 14.04 15.64 4.34
Tax 1.83 2.33 -1.93 0.3 3.37 0.63
Net profit 3.41 11.17 23.68 13.74 12.27 3.71
Dividend Amount

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 4.84 2.6 4.94 4.29 4.75 7.15
Expenses 2.76 1.82 2.62 2.49 2.2 2.19
Other Income 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.06
Depreciation 0.1 0.08 0.1 0.11 0.12 0.11
Interest 0.04 0.04
Profit before tax 2.09 0.69 2.33 1.75 2.43 4.91
Tax 0.28 0.4 0.31 0.21 0.38 -0.12
Net profit 1.81 0.29 2.02 1.54 2.05 5.03
Operating Profit 2.08 0.78 2.32 1.8 2.55 4.96

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97
Reserves 19.97 31.14 54.82 68.56 80.82 84.53
Borrowings
Other Liabilities 18.43 14.41 13.66 13.1 13.63 12.2
Total 44.37 51.52 74.45 87.63 100.42 102.7
Net Block 9.71 8.8 8.03 7.17 6.26 6.68
Capital Work in Progress 0.12
Investments 0.1 1.34 8.55 22.25 24.81 24.8
Other Assets 34.44 41.38 57.87 58.21 69.35 71.22
Total 44.37 51.52 74.45 87.63 100.42 102.7
Receivables 0.54 1.63 2.53 5.03 1.92 1.28
Inventory 5.3 4.91 3.54 2.62 1.29 0.81
Cash & Bank 19.19 25.67 38.04 33.8 23.58 38.95
No. of Equity Shares 5966500 5966500 5966500 5966500 5966500 5966500
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity -44.56 5.14 17.27 -24.53 12.89 -2.67
Cash from Investing Activity -87.85 1.34 -4.9 -8.56 0.15 -6.57
Cash from Financing Activity -2.01
Net Cash Flow -134.42 6.48 12.37 -33.09 13.04 -9.24

PRICE:

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

5.15 11.98 16.97 17.81

0.16 0.18 0.23 0.26

0.33 0.55 0.16 0.1
4.42 2.63 3.35 3.54
5 4.82 5.11 4.64
1.14 1.2 0.7 0.68
7.72 9.37 0.5 0.66
0.14 0.23 0.37 0.48

1.68 11.74 7.55 8.77

0.61 0.62 1.26 0.48
1.06 11.12 6.28 8.29

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

1.61 2.97 8 12.51
2.34 2.35 2.53 2.38
0.54 0.01 0.24
0.14 0.12 0.13 0.14

-0.33 0.51 5.34 10.23

0.17 0.19 0.38
-0.34 0.33 5.15 9.85
-0.73 0.62 5.47 10.13

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97
84.64 95.76 119.43 373.18

12.7 17.49 16.92 17.27

103.31 119.22 142.32 396.42
5.78 6.62 9.17 11.61
0.73 11.4 0.06 0.05
30.52 55.59 81.55 351.33
66.28 45.61 51.54 33.43
103.31 119.22 142.32 396.42
2.02 0.36 0.07 0.15
0.69
29.09 22.66 10.61 20.26
5966500 5966500 5966500 5966500

10 10 10 10

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

-4.27 5.97 0.05 1.05
5.37 -7.02 -1.7 -0.07

1.11 -1.05 -1.65 0.99

0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60

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