Running Head: RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS 1

Tesla

Final Project

Justine Fournier

Southern New Hampshire University

ECO-201

February 19, 2017

RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS 2

Tesla

With the growing concerns of climate change and renewable energy sources, it comes as

no surprise that Tesla is making strides toward being a champion of renewable energy in an

effort to reduce a reliability on fossil fuels. In order to determine if Tesla has growth potential

in the market it will be necessary to evaluate core microeconomic principals. “Today, however,

there is a growing recognition that achieving security and climate stability will require a massive

development of renewable energy projects” (Sterzinger, 2007 P.82). Tesla’s innovations will be

analyzed in this paper in order to identify the current trends in demand as well as the price

elasticity of demand and how they effect the supply and demand conditions that impact how the

company’s renewable energy revolutions are industrialized. Tesla’s motor vehicle and

renewable energy market structure will be analyzed alongside the costs of production, entry

barriers and market shares. An analysis will be made in order to provide recommendations for a

continued success in the market.

History

When people think of Tesla, the first person they think of is the company’s fascinating

CEO, Elon Musk. Tesla was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. The

two American entrepreneurs named their company after the famed inventor Nikola Tesla whose

most notable inventions include the application of electric power (Schreiber & Gregersen, 2014).

The Silicon Valley partners designed their first high performance electric car. The TZero “built

by AC propulsion, could leap from zero to 60 in under 4 seconds” (Baer, 2014). The

entrepreneurs knew they were onto something and began their journey to developing the fastest

electric car ever made. Musk began his relationship with the partners as a financial contributor

in 2004 and became CEO in 2008 (Schreiber & Gregersen, 2014).

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In 2008 Tesla released their first flagship sports car. It is considered to be one of the best

innovations of 2008 by Time Magazine. “Electric cars were always environmentally friendly,

quiet, clean — but definitely not sexy. The Tesla Roadster has changed all that. A battery-

powered sports car that sells for $100,000 and has a top speed of 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h), the

Roadster has excited the clean-tech crowd since it was announced in 2003” (Hamilton, 2008).

Tesla carried their innovations on to the next series of Roadsters that would set them apart from

the rest of the motor industry. They decided to push past sustainable transportation with the

acquisition of SolarCity (Cava, 2016).

Vehicle Innovations

Tesla currently has 3 vehicles in production, all of which boast the newest self-driving

technology. “Self-driving vehicles will play a crucial role in improving transportation safety and

accelerating the world’s transition to a sustainable future. Full autonomy will enable a Tesla to

be substantially safer than a human driver, lower the financial cost of transportation for those

who own a car and provide low-cost on-demand mobility for those who do not” (All Tesla Cars

Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware, 2016). The Model S is a sedan,

designed to be the “safest, most exhilarating sedan on the road” (Model S, n.d.). The Model X is

an SUV designed to be the “most capable sport utility vehicle in history” (Model X, n.d.). The

Model 3 is designed to “combine real world range, performance, safety and spaciousness into a

premium sedan than only Tesla can build. Our most affordable car yet, Model 3 achieves 215

miles of ranger per charge while starting at only $35,000 before incentives” (Accelerating

Sustainable Transport, n.d.).

Operational Innovations

Tesla’s innovations don’t only encompass sustainable transportation. In order to achieve

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their new mission of sustainable energy, Tesla has to ensure that they are able to keep up with

the demand of lithium ion batteries. In order to do this, Tesla partnered with Panasonic and

broke ground in 2014 on a Gigafactory in Nevada, “By 2018, the Gigafactory will reach full

capacity and produce more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in

2013” (Tesla Gigafactory, n.d.).

Sustainable Energy Innovations

Tesla has several products in the works to move forward with their sustainable energy

initiative. Such innovations include “Tesla’s plans for total clean energy integration – a one-step

carbon reduction process that involves pairing solar panels with [your] Tesla electric vehicle

(Richardson, 2016). Combining the work force of the newly acquired SolarCity and the

efficiency of Panasonics made shingles and tiles, Tesla’s plans for a durable and attractive

alternative to bulky solar panels further drives their enterprise (Richardson, 2016). The roof tile

technology is easily paired with Tesla’s Powerwall 2.0, a solution for solar storage for both

home energy and vehicle charging capabilities (Muoio, 2016).

Supply and Demand Conditions

The demand for renewable energy continues to be a growing concern for many

Americans as well as citizens around the globe. Perhaps the easiest lifestyle change a person can

make toward becoming less dependent on fossil fuels is to purchase a hybrid or electric car.

“Production of these fossil fuels is expected to rise, approximately doubling the amount of use of

each fossil fuel. As world population continues to grow and the limited amount of fossil fuels

begin to diminish, it may not be possible to provide the amount of energy demanded by the

world by only using fossil fuels to convert energy” (Riddell, n.d.). It is necessary to analyze the

supply and demand trends in order to fully comprehend how Tesla can maintain success in an
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ever evolving automobile industry. Using the price of elasticity of demand, we can evaluate

Tesla’s pricing and revenue trends to evaluate their impact on consumer responsiveness.

In the graph below we see that Tesla has experienced a steady growth in sales in the last

five years.

Tesla’s Financial Data, 5-year Trend

Figure 1. Tesla’s Revenue and Cost of Goods Sold (COGS incl. D&A) data for the past 5-years.

Adapted from TSLA Annual Income Statement – Tesla Motors Inc. Annual Financials. (n.d.).

Retrieved from http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla/financials

The graph shows that Tesla’s initial entry into the market was not profitable as their

operating costs broke even with their sales. However, their sales trend over the following years

shows an increased profit. The increased sales show a correlation with the market demand for

electric vehicles. “The overall global market saw a growth rate of ~76%, - with overall EV

registrations rising around 2-fold a year between 2012 and 2014” (Ayre, 2015). Tesla’s launch

of the more affordable Model 3 provides an insight to the demand for electric vehicles. Since

the Model 3 is in its development stages, customers are only able to put a down payment of

vehicles for its 2018 release. “Within days of launch about 400,000 people paid $1000 each for
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a car they will receive in 2018 – In addition to the $400 million wired to Tesla, this represents an

order of more than $15 billion dollars” (Yadigaroglu, 2016).

With the advancement of technology, the motor industry is poised to have a significant

effect on the demand for renewable energy. “Existing Lithium-oxygen batteries draw in air to

cause a chemical reaction…researchers devised a method of discharging and recharging without

ever needing to let oxygen to return to its gaseous form…The end result is faster charging and

more efficient batteries, due to lower heat wastage” (Woods, 2016). As the technology

advances, the availability of resources will make the price of vehicles more elastic over time.

“The prices of EVs will decrease as the technologies involved become mainstream and

economies of scale come into play with higher production numbers” (Pikkarainen, 2016).

Price Elasticity of Demand

Compared to the use of combustion powered vehicles and despite the many advancements

made in the electric vehicle technologies; the purchasing of electric vehicles (EVs) is largely

elastic. “55 percent of electric vehicle buyers are between 36 and 55 years old and nearly 21

percent have an average household income of $175,000 or more” (Gorzelany, 2014). It would

seem that based on the income of EV consumers, Tesla vehicles are more elastic. This illustrates

the determinant of luxury vs. necessity. The determinant of share of budget is also illustrated by

the average household income. Here we know that the cost of an EV will have a significant

effect on a household’s budget due to the high cost.

Based on the mass availability of new and used combustion vehicles readily available, the

availability of substitutes illustrates the determinant of availability of substitutes and further

illustrates the elasticity of EVs. As mentioned earlier, the more time that passes the less

expensive the technology becomes. This means that EVs will become less expensive to
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purchase, thus illustrating the determinant of the passage of time. Finally, we look at the

determinant of the definition of the market. 2016 brought 8 new electric vehicles including the

BMW i3, Fiat 500e, Ford Focus Electric, Nissan Leaf, Volkswagen e-Golf, Chevrolet Spark EV,

Smart Fortwo Electric Drive and Mitsubishi i-MiEV (8 Cheapest Electric Cars, n.d.). The

determinant of the definition of the market further illustrates its elasticity as there are a wide

variety of options in the market. The pricing of each of the above models comes in just under

Tesla’s least expensive Model 3.

The Model 3 has been Tesla’s primary model. It experienced a significant price decrease

between 2012 and 2015. The correlation between the drop in price of this model in relation to

the rise in sales revenue show the vehicles have become more elastic to Tesla’s customers. See

the following graph to illustrate the relationship between the price change in the Model 3 and

Tesla’s sales revenue.

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Figure 2. Tesla Model Price vs Sales Revenue. Adapted from TSLA Annual Income Statement –

Tesla Motors Inc. Annual Financials. (n.d.). Retrieved from

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla/financials and Here’s how Tesla’s cars have

changed over the years (2016). Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/how-tesla-cars-

have-changed-over-time-photos-2016-9/#tesla-garnered-a-lot-of-attention-in-2008-when-it-

released-its-very-first-electric-car--the-wildly-sexy-tesla-roadster-1.

Cost of Production

Over time, there are various costs of production that Tesla incurs that impact their

profitability. Three of the discretionary fixed costs of production that have a major impact on

Tesla’s profitability are Research and Development and Selling, General and Administrative.

Research and development costs have also seen over a 50% increase (Tesla Company Financials,

2017). Given Tesla’s recent ventures into alternative energy sources for the home in conjunction

with the vehicle, it is logical to acknowledge that the R&D costs would increase as the company

expands into new enterprises. Finally, Tesla’s Sales, General and Administration costs have also

seen similar increases, congruent with the company’s increase in revenues (2017). Despite the

increasing costs, Tesla’s has experienced a great increase in sales, which has offset the

aforementioned costs. Since fixed costs don’t change with the Tesla’s output, then these costs

will remain constant.

Tesla’s committed fixed costs include rent, insurance and property taxes. These costs are

generally not effected by sales. However, the Gigafactory operations plant building construction

project is a result of increased future sales. Other property locations include California, the

Netherlands, the UK and China, totaling over 6.5 million square feet of property (Kimyes,

2016). The variable costs associated with the cost of production include cost of revenue, labor,
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materials and shipping costs. The costs are connected to sales and will fluctuate as sales do.

Since Tesla’s sales have been steadily increasing overtime, so too have the variable costs. The

costs of revenues, or cost of sales have also experienced growth the past 5 years, steady with

over 50% increases (Tesla Company Financials, 2017). Since variable costs depend on a

planned level of output, Tesla relies on expected sales in order to budget for these costs. Both

the fixed and variable costs effect short run decisions, while only variable costs effect long run

decisions.

Despite Tesla’s increased revenues, they have not yet begun to experience

measured profitability. As it is still in its “startup” stages of development, Tesla is focusing on

growing its customer base and product development. “Tesla badly needed this positive outcome

after 13 quarters of unprofitable results to reassure investors… keeping the Model 3 on schedule

could be a precursor to even better days ahead” (Glinton, 2016). Tesla was finally able to report

a profitability after the 2016 third quarter. “The Tesla third quarter results reflect strong

company-wide execution in many areas” (Musk, 2016).

Overall Market

In the electric car market as of March 2016, Tesla takes 30% of the overall share. With

the market consideration of preorders for Tesla models, the company has overcome the expected

sales of all other competitors (Shahan, 2016). “Tesla is, of course, growing fast and is clearly

production constrained, with thousands or tens of thousands of people in line for the Tesla

Model X, and hundreds of thousands for the Tesla Model 3. It is in the lead in many respects,

and it seems like no one is eager to really bring competitive products to give Tesla a run for its

money” (Shahan, 2016).

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Total YTD Sales (In thousands)

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

Total YTD Sales

Figure 3. Tesla Market Share Adapted from Tesla Takes 30% Of US Electric Car Market In

March, Brings In 30x More Model 3 Reservations Than Entire US Electric Car Market TSLA

(April 9th, 2016) Retrieved from https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/09/tesla-takes-30-of-us-

electric-car-market-in-march-brings-in-30x-more-model-3-reservations-than-entire-us-electric-

car-market/

In the overall automotive market, Tesla holds a much lower market share among its

competitors. The market shares of electric vehicles take up only 1% of the overall market. “US

electric car sales continue to climb to new heights in 2017. Growing 59% year over year

(YoY), approximately 12,000 electric cars were sold across the country in January, accounting

for approximately 1% of US auto sales” (Electric Car Sales, 2017). Since Tesla only
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manufactures plug in electric vehicles, Tesla’s total market share is much lower than its

competitors as indicated in the below chart.

Figure 4. U.S. Vehicle Sales Market Share by Company, 1961-2016 (February 6, 2016)

Retrieved from http://wardsauto.com/datasheet/us-vehicle-sales-market-share-company-1961-

2014

One of the prime barriers of entry into the electric vehicle market is cost. There are very

high costs associated with developing a vehicle that can compete against some of the more

successful incumbents in the industry. Barriers aren’t limited to new car companies; they can

also include existing car companies trying to introduce a new model. “The higher the capital

requirements, the higher the barriers to entry…When there are high barriers to entry, then you

don’t see new entrants, and you don’t see innovation. It’s really that new entrants are what

drives innovation” (Stringham et al, 2015). Upon entry, Tesla was a new entrant with

innovations that had not yet been seen in the market. With their unique revolutions on

alternative renewable energy solutions, they stand apart from other automakers in the industry.

In order to stay current and avoid technology becoming obsolete, Tesla must continue to

innovate. Technology obsolescence is another barrier to market entry. “Not only are the car

making giants fighting for leadership in this strategically-crucial area, but so are the technically-
RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS 12

savvy and automotive-oriented nations of the US, Germany and Japan” (Nathan, 2014). As fossil

fuel powered vehicles dominate the automotive industry, electronic technology has yet to be

perfected to a point where it can compete with the incumbent technology in terms of distance

and longevity. It is the fear of obsolescence by consumers that make technological innovations

crucial to market entry. Patents for new technology therefore become yet another barrier to the

market. “Patents serve to act as legal barriers to entry against other potential firms who may

want to enter the industry and protect the market power of the incumbent. In this case, the

patented technology gave Tesla Motors Inc. a huge edge in the electric car industry with close to

42% (2013) market share” (Ding, 2014).

An example of a failed entrant into the electric vehicle market is Fisker automotive.

There were many factors that influenced the failure of the Fisker Karma. Since the Department

of Energy set up a fund dedicated toward clean energy vehicle production, Fisker applied for a

$169 million loan and were eventually granted $529 million in order to expedite vehicle

production. The only vehicle to be designed by Fisker, the Karma, was introduced in 2008 with

a starting order price of $100,000 per car. The company only ever produced and delivered 2,000

vehicles, which had all missed the deadline set by the DOE. Straight off, the vehicles had

software and component flaws that lead to expensive and complicated repairs. After the DOE

pulled funding due to internal auditing on other unrelated funded projects, Fisker quickly ran out

of capital (Bennett, 2013). Other factors that lead to the failure of Fisker include the actual cost

vs. sales of the Karma. “Fisker spent a stunning $900,000 for each vehicle it produced… Then

they sold them to dealers for an invoice price of just $70,000” (Koetsier, 2013). Because of the

large scale of design flaws and the DOE’s flawed underwriting process, Fisker declared

bankruptcy in 2013.
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The electric car market is an oligopoly market as there are very few global competitors,

the ease of entry into the market is low and the market competition manufactures electric cars.

In order to confirm that the electric automotive industry is an oligopoly, we must calculate what

percentage their share makes up in the market. Tesla’s 4 top competitors are Chevy (GM),

Nissan, Ford and BMW. Using the data displayed earlier in figure 3 we can demonstrate that the

top 5 competitors make up 84% of the market. Chevy(GM) makes up 19% of the PEV market.

Nissan makes up 11% of the market. Ford makes up 18% of the market while BMW makes up

7%. Because Tesla seems to be dominating the electric vehicle market at roughly 30% market

share, and given the markets low ease of entry, potential for competition is limited. Due to the

ownership of patent technology and a necessity of innovation for entry into the market, the

likelihood of success for a new entrant into the market is limited.

Recommendation

It may not seem like EVs will ever be inelastic as long as there are combustion vehicles

available. In order for Tesla to continue their trend of success they will need to stand out among

the rest of the EV manufacturers. Increasing the price of their vehicles may result in a decline of

sales. Providing more cost efficient vehicles is an obvious solution to being more successful and

having increased sales. Tesla’s innovations in home energy technology to be used in

conjunction with a Tesla model, as described in the history section above, should continue to be

researched and developed in order to stay ahead of the technology curve. As shown in figure 2,

Tesla’s decrease in price has shown a direct correlation with the increase in revenues. It is

therefore recommended that Tesla control costs in order to keep low prices and promote

increased revenues.
RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS 14

In order to maintain its domineering presence in the electric vehicle market, Tesla will

need to continue to provide new and innovative technology to stay ahead of the rest of its

competitors in the market. With their proven ability to patent technology and introduce

revolutions in the renewable energy market, Tesla should be able to take advantage of its unique

position in the market. In order to control the cost of production, Tesla’s gigafactory should be

able to meet the growing demand for alternative energy. Since the gigafactory is still in

production, it will be necessary to evaluate how the in house production of batteries will effect

Tesla’s overall production costs in comparison to their revenues. With Tesla’s partnership with

Panasonics and their patented lithium ion battery, Tesla is poised to maintain market dominance

with its integration to home energy solutions. In order to maintain consumer favorability, the

company should continue to provide less expensive vehicle options.

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