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    Massachusetts Institute of Technology Manufacturing Science/Engineering of Solar Cells Assignment - Hypothesis Testing of New Wafer Suppliers

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    The document provides information for an assignment evaluating multiple second-source silicon wafer suppliers to diversify a company's wafer supply chain. Students will use statistical hypothesis testing on power performance data from initial engineering lots and additional created lots to evaluate suppliers against a baseline and determine if they should be considered as suppliers. The objectives are to query initial lot data, perform hypothesis testing on 4-lot and 20-lot samples, compute potential cost changes, and recommend the best supplier.

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    Massachusetts Institute of Technology Manufacturing Science/Engineering of Solar Cells Assignment - Hypothesis Testing of New Wafer Suppliers

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    musa
    41 views4 pages
    The document provides information for an assignment evaluating multiple second-source silicon wafer suppliers to diversify a company's wafer supply chain. Students will use statistical hypothesis testing on power performance data from initial engineering lots and additional created lots to evaluate suppliers against a baseline and determine if they should be considered as suppliers. The objectives are to query initial lot data, perform hypothesis testing on 4-lot and 20-lot samples, compute potential cost changes, and recommend the best supplier.

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    The document provides information for an assignment evaluating multiple second-source silicon wafer suppliers to diversify a company's wafer supply chain. Students will use statistical hypothesis testing on power performance data from initial engineering lots and additional created lots to evaluate suppliers against a baseline and determine if they should be considered as suppliers. The objectives are to query initial lot data, perform hypothesis testing on 4-lot and 20-lot samples, compute potential cost changes, and recommend the best supplier.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    41 views4 pages

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology Manufacturing Science/Engineering of Solar Cells Assignment - Hypothesis Testing of New Wafer Suppliers

    Uploaded by

    musa
    The document provides information for an assignment evaluating multiple second-source silicon wafer suppliers to diversify a company's wafer supply chain. Students will use statistical hypothesis testing on power performance data from initial engineering lots and additional created lots to evaluate suppliers against a baseline and determine if they should be considered as suppliers. The objectives are to query initial lot data, perform hypothesis testing on 4-lot and 20-lot samples, compute potential cost changes, and recommend the best supplier.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 4

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    Manufacturing Science/Engineering of Solar Cells

    Assignment - Hypothesis Testing of New Wafer Suppliers

    Your Manufacturing Engineering team is evaluating multiple second-source silicon wafer suppliers in order to
    diversify Virtual Solar Inc.’s wafer supply chain. Having multiple qualified suppliers both de-risks potential supply­
    and-logistics issues and puts pressure on our suppliers to lower their prices. Eight new suppliers are under
    consideration – of principle concern are (1) wafer price, (2) wafer power performance, and ultimately, (3) $/watt cost
    changes in the product. Of course, each supplier promises better cost, performance, quality, reliability, yield …
    Pricing data is provided courtesy of VSI’s Purchasing Department, which has been in preliminary negotiation with
    each supplier. Purchasing also acquired evaluation samples from each of the new wafer suppliers – 2000 wafers,
    which is enough to process 20 “lots” of 100 wafers in the fab. The table below summarizes the preliminary pricing
    data for each supplier.

    Team Vendor Name Wafer Recipe Code Name Price ($/100pcs)


    Ops Trusted Wafer Co. Baseline Wafer $207.99 / 100 pcs
    Line 1 Virtuawafer Pty. A $208.00 / 100 pcs
    Line 2 Premium Wafer Inc. B $214.81 / 100 pcs
    Line 3 Si4U Pty. C $206.01 / 100 pcs
    Line 4 Discount Wafer Co. D $201.23 / 100 pcs
    Line 5 Not Silicone Inc. E $205.62 / 100 pcs
    Line 6 Acme Co. F $209.99 / 100 pcs
    Line 7 Sunpun Solar Gmbh. G $214.27 / 100 pcs
    Line 8 Ace Co. H $214.48 / 100 pcs

    Your team will evaluate one wafer type on your production line, and we will compare notes between teams as a class.
    To complete the evaluation, your team needs power performance data. However, with only a limited supply of
    evaluation wafers, “luck of the draw” and “common cause variance” will surely introduce uncertainty into your
    evaluation. So, you will use a statistical hypothesis test approach to quantify and communicate this uncertainty. In
    particular, your team will use a “Two-tailed, 95% Confidence, Hypothesized Mean, Z-hypothesis Test About Lot-
    Mean Maximum Power (Pmp).” This type of test has been stipulated by the Director of Manufacturing Engineering.
    Her rationale is

    Test Design Rational Associated Info


    Consideration
    Two-tailed We care both about detecting higher and lower power Zcrit = 1.960
    performance in the evaluation
    95% Confidence The FMEA lists contains no potential risks with C = 95%
    Severity/Consequence greater than 7 α = 0.05
    Hypothesized Mean Manufacturing Operations has a very precise estimate of the μ0 = 2.4772337
    mean power performance of Trusted Wafer Co. wafers (from (watts)
    multiple months of solar production data)
    Z-hypothesis Test Manufacturing Operations also has a very precise estimate of σ0 = 0.017852534
    the standard deviation of power performance of Trusted Wafer (watts)
    Co wafers.
    Lot-Mean Maximum Lot-mean data are Normally distributed and are not auto- Query Output Params:
    Power (Pmp) correlated, two necessary conditions for hypothesis tests. “Lot-level Data”
    (Individual wafer data are non-Normal and highly auto- “Mean”
    correlated.) “PmP

    1
    Assignment Objectives:

    1. Use the VMES Engineering > Data Query and Export feature to query lot-mean Pmp data from 4 initial
    engineering lots pertaining to your assigned wafer type (type A-H). These lots that have already been
    fabricated by Jeff and are ready for evaluation. See the Helpful Tips section at the end of this handout.
    2. Use statistical hypothesis testing to evaluate the data pertaining to your assigned wafer type, against the
    current baseline (see the table above for baseline data). Start with data from the initial 4 lots already prepared
    in the VMES. Report your findings (Zstat, p-value and conclusion) to the class.
    3. Use the VMES Engineering > Action Planner > Eng Lots feature to create 16 additional engineering lots in
    the VMES. There’s an easy shortcut, Jeff will show you in class. When the VMES updates again (around late
    o’clock in the night), these lots will be fully fabricated and ready for data query and further analysis.
    4. Repeat the statistical hypothesis testing to evaluate 20 lots of data. Report your findings (Zstat, p-value and
    conclusion) to the class.
    5. Compute the potential performance cost change (delta $/watt against the baseline performance cost) for your
    wafer type.

    What to Submit:
    1. One report per team, not more than 1 page in length.
    2. A concise table of your hypothesis test results for the 4-sample and 20-sample evaluations: Zstat, p-value,
    conclusion. Be sure to state your conclusion properly (eg. “Fail to Reject with 95% confidence and a p-value
    of 0.345”)
    3. Compute the delta in performance cost ($/watt to the 100th of a cent) compared to the baseline case. Make the
    best possible estimate from your available data. For example, report a savings as –$0.0123/watt and an
    increase as +$0.0098/watt.
    4. Recommend whether your assigned supplier should be considered as a supplier to Virtual Solar Inc. Make a
    concise recommendation with support from your data and analyses.
    5. Consider the results from the rest of the class. Recommend the best supplier to consider for Virtual Solar Inc.
    Make a concise recommendation with support from your data and analyses.

    2
    Helpful Tips
    1. Getting the Virtual Manufacturing Execution System (VMES) Software
    a. The VMES software is free. Download it from https://sites.google.com/site/virtualsolarcellsinc/
    b. After downloading, run the installer. NB: the software runs well on Windows PC, but may have difficulty
    on Mac emulators.

    2. Logging Into the Virtual Cell Factory (VCF) using the VMES Software
    a. The Virtual Cell Factory is in the cloud, you access it using the VMES software.
    b. Select Account > Login and enter your team’s Login Name and Password. Login Name and Password are
    the same for the MIT class, depending on your assigned line number (“mitline1”/”mitline1”,
    “mitline2”/”mitline2”, etc).
    c. Click Connect, then Select, then Login (your class VCF is “University/MIT VCF 2013”).

    3. Setting up a Query
    a. Select Engineering>Data Query and Export, and then fill up the appropriate query parameters on the
    form. See the illustration below.
    b. Click the Query button. From the resulting table, you can use ctrl-c to copy the pertinent data.

    our line here

    4. Creating 16 additional engineering lots


    a. Select Engineering>Action Plan>Eng Lots, and then select one of the previously completed engineering
    lots by right clicking on the row header at the left-most position of the Eng Lot table.
    b. Right click again and select Duplicate Multiple.
    c. Enter 16 and click ok.
    d. This will create 16 duplicate engineering lots, all highlighted in red with a Status of “New”
    NB: ONLY ONE PERSON SHOULD ENTER THE DUPLIATES, TO AVOID UNNEEDED DUPLICATES!!!!!

    Right click here first to


    select an engineering lot

    Right click here a second time


    and select "Duplicate Multiple"

    3
    MIT OpenCourseWare
    http://ocw.mit.edu

    2.627 / 2.626 Fundamentals of Photovoltaics


    Fall 2013

    For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.

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