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    APIC2015 - Acrylonitrile Market PDF

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    1,500 6,600 The document summarizes a presentation on the global acrylonitrile market. It notes that acrylonitrile production capacity has grown rapidly in China and other Asian countries in recent years. However, overcapacity has led to low profit margins. It also discusses trends in downstream sectors like acrylic fiber and ABS, which have seen slower growth recently. The outlook is for continued overcapacity and depressed margins in acrylonitrile.

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    APIC2015 - Acrylonitrile Market PDF

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    184 views23 pages
    1,500 6,600 The document summarizes a presentation on the global acrylonitrile market. It notes that acrylonitrile production capacity has grown rapidly in China and other Asian countries in recent years. However, overcapacity has led to low profit margins. It also discusses trends in downstream sectors like acrylic fiber and ABS, which have seen slower growth recently. The outlook is for continued overcapacity and depressed margins in acrylonitrile.

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    1,500 6,600 The document summarizes a presentation on the global acrylonitrile market. It notes that acrylonitrile production capacity has grown rapidly in China and other Asian countries in recent years. However, overcapacity has led to low profit margins. It also discusses trends in downstream sectors like acrylic fiber and ABS, which have seen slower growth recently. The outlook is for continued overcapacity and depressed margins in acrylonitrile.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    184 views23 pages

    APIC2015 - Acrylonitrile Market PDF

    Uploaded by

    sergey sergeev
    1,500 6,600 The document summarizes a presentation on the global acrylonitrile market. It notes that acrylonitrile production capacity has grown rapidly in China and other Asian countries in recent years. However, overcapacity has led to low profit margins. It also discusses trends in downstream sectors like acrylic fiber and ABS, which have seen slower growth recently. The outlook is for continued overcapacity and depressed margins in acrylonitrile.

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    of 23

    Acrylonitrile – World Market Overview

    Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2015


    Seoul, 8 May 2015

    (Michelle) Yang Qin


    APIC 2015
    AGENDA

    • Trends in Global Acrylonitrile Production

    • Downstream Sector Analysis

    • Supply and Demand Balances

    • Lessons from Other Markets

    • Market Prospects

    • Conclusions

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    WORLD ACRYLONITRILE CAPACITY

    Thousand Metric Tons

    7,000 China

    6,000 Northeast Asia


    S & SE Asia
    5,000
    ME & Africa

    4,000 East Europe


    West Europe
    3,000
    South America
    2,000 North America

    1,000

    0
    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    WORLD ACRYLONITRILE PRODUCTION TRENDS

    • Rapid growth in capacity


    New Capacity ktpa Year
    Anqing Petrochemical, China 130 2013
    Tong Suh Petrochemical, S Korea 245 2013
    Shandong Keluer, China 130 2014
    Shanghai Secco, China 260 2015
    Jiangsu Sailboat, China 260 2015
    SABIC/Asahi Kasei, Saudi Arabia 240 2017
    Ineos Tianjin, China 260 2017
    Capacity Shut Down

    Asahi Kasei, Japan (250) 2014

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    WORLD ACRYLONITRILE PRODUCTION TRENDS

    • Increasing availability of propylene and ammonia feedstock

    • Propane dehydrogenation units in North America and Asia

    • Ammonia plants in North America and the Middle East

    • Low profitability

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    WORLD ACRYLONITRILE PRODUCTION TRENDS

    Margin = Acrylonitrile – 1.1 x Propylene $/ton Capacity (ktpa)


    2,000 7,200

    7,000 Capacity

    6,800
    Acrylonitrile Margin
    6,600
    1,500
    6,400

    6,200

    6,000
    1,000
    5,800

    5,600

    5,400

    500 5,200

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    DOWNSTREAM SECTOR ANALYSIS

    • Acrylic fibre losing dominance in acrylonitrile downstream

    • Slow growth in most sectors, except polyacrylamide

    • Strongest growth in low-volume consuming industries

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    ACRYLONITRILE CONSUMPTION BY END USE

    Thousand Metric Tons (of acrylonitrile)


    6000
    Other
    5000 Nitrile Rubber
    Acrylamide
    4000
    ABS/SAN
    Adiponitrile
    3000
    Acrylic Fibre

    2000

    1000

    0
    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    WORLD ACRYLIC FIBRE PRODUCTION TRENDS

    • Global acrylic fibre production has declined by an average


    2% per year during the last five years (Montefibre, Radici)

    • Production in 2014 was 1.735 million tons registering a


    decline of 9% from 2013

    • Acrylic fibre costs continue to suffer from propylene prices


    and high acrylonitrile conversion costs

    • Despite a sharp fall in production over the past 10 years,


    Tecnon OrbiChem expects modest (0.4%) production growth
    in the next 10 years, due to weak supplies of wool and
    cotton and continuing technical advantages for acrylic fibre
    in certain markets

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    WORLD ACRYLIC FIBRE CAPACITY

    Million Metric Tons


    3.5
    China
    3.0
    Northeast Asia

    2.5 S & SE Asia


    ME & Africa
    2.0
    East Europe

    1.5 West Europe


    South America
    1.0
    North America

    0.5

    0.0
    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    WORLD ACRYLIC FIBRE PRODUCTION

    Million Metric Tons


    3.0
    China
    2.5 Northeast Asia
    S & SE Asia
    2.0
    ME & Africa
    East Europe
    1.5
    West Europe

    1.0 South America


    North America
    0.5

    0.0
    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    ABS MARKET TRENDS

    • Steady growth, in line with economic growth in most regions

    • Chronic overcapacity diminishes profitability

    • Styrene prices guide ABS competitiveness

    • Free-trade agreements encourage Korean exports

    • Exchange rate fluctuations disrupt trade flows

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    WORLD ABS CAPACITY

    Million Metric Tons


    11.0

    10.0 China

    9.0 Northeast Asia


    8.0 S & SE Asia
    7.0 ME & Africa
    6.0 East Europe
    5.0 West Europe
    4.0 South America
    3.0 North America
    2.0

    1.0

    0.0
    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    ACRYLAMIDE MARKET TRENDS

    • North American shale gas boom fuels consumption growth

    • Water treatment remains biggest end-use, but growth is slow

    • Pulp and paper markets are also mature

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    OTHER DOWNSTREAM MARKETS

    • Nitrile rubber market growth is slow but steady

    • New adiponitrile plant to come on stream this year in Shandong

    • Spectacular growth in carbon fibre demand, but volumes are low

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    ACRYLONITRILE SUPPLY AND DEMAND

    Thousand Metric Tons

    7,500 Capacity to Produce

    6,500

    5,500

    4,500

    Consumption
    3,500

    2,500
    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    ACRYLONITRILE SUPPLY AND DEMAND

    • Consistent overcapacity

    • Large producers manage operating rates globally

    • Relatively stable trade flows among regions

    • Japanese exports reduced after 2014 closures

    • New capacities in China may reduce imports from the Americas

    • Margins are likely to remain depressed

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    LESSONS FROM OTHER MARKETS – POLYESTER

    Margin = PTA – 0.67x PX ($/ton) Capacity (ktpa)


    300 90,000

    80,000 Capacity

    70,000
    PTA Margin
    200 60,000

    50,000

    40,000

    100 30,000

    20,000

    10,000

    0 0

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    LESSONS FROM OTHER MARKETS – ADIPIC ACID

    Margin = Adipic Acid – 0.7x Benzene ($/ton) Capacity (ktpa)


    2,000 4,500
    Capacity
    4,000

    3,500 Adipic Acid


    Margin
    1,500 3,000

    2,500

    2,000

    1,000 1,500

    1,000

    500

    500 0

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    ACRYLONITRILE PROFITABILITY

    Margin = Acrylonitrile – 1.1 x Propylene $/ton Capacity (ktpa)


    2,000 7,200

    7,000 Capacity

    6,800
    Acrylonitrile Margin
    6,600
    1,500
    6,400

    6,200

    6,000
    1,000
    5,800

    5,600

    5,400

    500 5,200

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    ACRYLONITRILE MARKET PROSPECTS

    • Ineos/Sinopec intellectual property dispute

    • Possible Montefibre Hispania acrylic fibre restart

    • Continued conversion of acrylic fibre capacity to carbon fibre;


    output volumes are often reduced

    • New demand for ABS resins in 3D printing

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


    APIC 2015
    CONCLUSIONS

    • Acrylonitrile profitability will remain low because capacity is


    expanding faster than demand is growing

    • Increasing self-sufficiency in China will reduce inter-regional trade;


    exports from the Americas to Asia are likely to decline, despite
    seasonal cost advantages

    • Slow growth to continue in acrylic fibre markets

    • Low oil prices will reduce demand for polyacrylamide in fracking


    operations

    • Carbon fibre production is growing rapidly, but very little


    acrylonitrile is consumed

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


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