The Dissemination of Divination in

Roman Republican Times

– A Cognitive Approach

PhD Dissertation

By Anders Lisdorf

1
List of Figures..........................................................................................................5
List of Tables ...........................................................................................................6
Acknowledgements..................................................................................................7
Introduction..............................................................................................................8
Summary of dissertation ................................................................................16
Chapter 1 - History of divination as a general phenomenon .................................21
The history of divinatio prior to Cicero .............................................................21
Cicero’s De divinatione .....................................................................................23
Modern treatments of divination as a general term ...........................................25
Chapter 2 - A History of Modern Divination Research.........................................29
Foundations - End of the 19th century start of the 20th ......................................30
The British thread ..........................................................................................30
The French thread ..........................................................................................32
Edward Evans Evans-Pritchard .....................................................................33
Elaborations .......................................................................................................36
Summary............................................................................................................44
Chapter 3 - Definition and typology of divination ................................................47
Chapter 4 - Impetrative Divination........................................................................53
Motivation..........................................................................................................53
Life models ....................................................................................................56
Motivation as a feedback system ...................................................................57
Motivation for divination...............................................................................59
Summary........................................................................................................63
Sign production..................................................................................................64
The effect of ritualized action on the evaluation of credibility in divination 69
The effect of different types of ritual techniques...........................................76
Summary........................................................................................................79
Interpretation......................................................................................................80
Explaining cognitive functions by evolutionary psychology ........................80
Communicative basis.....................................................................................89
Restricted symbol system ..............................................................................93
Utility .............................................................................................................94
Credibility ......................................................................................................96
Summary......................................................................................................104
Chapter 5 - Oblative divination ...........................................................................106
Chapter 6 - Cultural epidemiology ......................................................................111
Chapter 7 - Research history on Roman divination.............................................122
Chronology of research on Roman Divination ................................................122
Classical philology.......................................................................................122
Anthropology ...............................................................................................124
Post evolutionism.........................................................................................125
Fear and trembling... ....................................................................................126
Manipulation................................................................................................127
Drawing lots- chance and ritual ...................................................................128
Recent developments ...................................................................................129
Summary......................................................................................................130
Four central theses in the history of Roman Divination ..................................130

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 The historical thesis .....................................................................................130
The formalist thesis......................................................................................131
The fear thesis..............................................................................................132
The functional thesis....................................................................................136
Summary......................................................................................................138
Chapter 8 - Sources to Roman Divination ...........................................................139
Republican writers ...........................................................................................139
Titus Maccius Plautus (c.250-184 BCE) .....................................................139
Marcus Terrentius Varro (116-27 BCE)......................................................139
Marcus Tullius Cicero (106-43 BCE)..........................................................140
Dionysius Hallicarnassus (60 BCE- 7 BCE) ...............................................141
Titus Livius (59 BCE-17 CE) ......................................................................141
Post-republican writers ....................................................................................142
Verrius Flacchus ..........................................................................................142
Aulus Gellius (130-180 CE) ........................................................................142
Valerius Maximus........................................................................................142
Gaius Tranquilius Suetonius (c.70 CE - ) ....................................................143
Seneca (4 BCE – 65 CE)..............................................................................143
Gaius Plinius Secundus (23BCE - 79CE)....................................................143
M. Servius Honoratus ..................................................................................144
Scholia .........................................................................................................144
Material sources: inscriptions, archaeological remains. ..................................144
Chapter 9 - Signa impetrativa ..............................................................................145
Auspices...........................................................................................................145
Augurium .....................................................................................................145
Auspicium....................................................................................................149
Auspicium ex tripudio .................................................................................155
Other kinds of auspicium.............................................................................159
Sortition ...........................................................................................................161
Public sortition.............................................................................................161
Private sortition............................................................................................164
Sortition oracles ...........................................................................................165
Extispicy ..........................................................................................................168
Public extispicy............................................................................................168
Private extispicy...........................................................................................171
Sibylline books ................................................................................................174
Miscellaneous divination .................................................................................176
Vates ............................................................................................................176
Astrology .....................................................................................................176
Conclusion .......................................................................................................177
Motivation....................................................................................................177
Ritualization.................................................................................................178
Categories employed in technique...............................................................179
Direct prestige..............................................................................................179
Indirect prestige ...........................................................................................180
Utility ...........................................................................................................180
Cultural model - reflective representation of divination..............................181
Factors in the dissemination of divination...................................................183

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 History .........................................................................................................184
Summary......................................................................................................185
Chapter 10 - Signa oblativa .................................................................................191
The omen vocabulary in Latin .........................................................................191
Detection of an omen...................................................................................192
Contents of the omen ...................................................................................193
The frequency of omen words .....................................................................197
Summary about omens.................................................................................204
The prodigy system..........................................................................................205
Brief sketch of acceptance procedure. .........................................................205
Nuntiatio ......................................................................................................206
Relatio..........................................................................................................210
Susceptio......................................................................................................210
Responsum...................................................................................................215
Decision .......................................................................................................220
Summary about prodigies ............................................................................220
Conclusion .......................................................................................................221
Chapter 11 - Conclusion ......................................................................................225
Appendix 1...........................................................................................................236
Appendix 1...........................................................................................................236
Appendix 2...........................................................................................................238
Appendix 3...........................................................................................................239
Appendix 4...........................................................................................................240
Appendix 5...........................................................................................................243
Appendix 6...........................................................................................................276
Bibliography ........................................................................................................278
Primary Sources...............................................................................................278
Secondary sources............................................................................................280
Danish summary ..................................................................................................301

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List of Figures
Figure 3.1. Types of knowledge acquisition..........................................................48
Figure 3.2. Communication with a Counter Intuitive Agent .................................49
Figure 4.2. Intentional action.................................................................................65
Figure 4.3. Peter eats an apple ...............................................................................66
Figure 4.4. Ritualized action in divination ............................................................67
Figure 4.5. Coin flip to decide where to go ...........................................................69
Figure 4.6a Averages for the Kurabi story ............................................................73
Figure 4.6b Averages for the Dendrologist story ..................................................74
Figure 4.6c Averages for the Banban story. ..........................................................74
Figure 4.7 Choice of diviner based on the divination technique employed ..........78
Figure 4.8. Choice of diviner based on the prestige of the god involved. ...........103
Figure 6.1. Cognitive basis of divination.............................................................113
Figure 6.2. Web of Causation for dissemination of a given divination practice .119
Figure 6.3. Web of Causation for the dissemination and resilience of omens ....120
Figure 7.1. Relation between degree of crisis and number of prodigies .............134
Figure 7.2. Relation between expiations and degree of crisis ............................137
Figure 9.1. Relations between relevant variables for dissemination of a divination
practice.................................................................................................................183
Figure 9.2. Probability of survival of a divination practice .................................188
Figure 9.3. Survival of divination practices.........................................................189
Figure 9.4. Survival of named divination practices .............................................190
Figure 10.1. Cultural model for conceptualization of omens ..............................195
Figure 10.2. Cultural model of omens with examples.........................................197
Figure 10.3. Omen words in Latin.......................................................................199
Figure 10.4. Omen words in Greek......................................................................201
Figure 10.5. Frequency of omen words in Greek and Latin ................................202
Figure 10.6. Omen words in Greek and Roman comedy.....................................203
Figure 10.7. Omen words in Greek and Roman Rhetoric ...................................204
Figure 10.8. Correlation between number of accepted prodigies and distance. ..214
Figure 10.9. The cultural model of omens as seen in De Responso Haruspicum219
Figure 10.10. Dissemination of omens ................................................................223

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List of Tables
Table. 1.1. Cicero’s typology of divination ...........................................................24
Table 1.2. The relation of modern typologies of divination to Cicero’s. ..............28
Table 3.1. Typology of divination components.....................................................49
Table 3.2. Examples of impetrative divination......................................................50
Table 3.3. Examples of oblative divination ...........................................................52
Table 4.1. Layers of homeostatic regulations ........................................................54
Table 4.2. Reasons for consultation of diviner among the Sisala..........................60
Table 4.3. Reasons for consultation of diviner among the Azande .......................61
Table 4.4. Reasons for consultation of diviner among the Kuranko .....................62
Table 4.5. Paired t-test for Intentional vs. Ritual conditions .................................74
Table 4.6. Effect size of difference between intentional and ritual conditions .....75
Table 4.7 Utility characteristics of divination practices ........................................95
Table 4.8 Difference in average rating of credibility between high prestige and
low prestige persons.............................................................................................100
Table 4.9. Overview of studies on prestige and credibility .................................101
Table 7.1. Crisis index .........................................................................................133
Table 9.1. Utility of Roman divination practices.................................................180
Tabel 9.2. Summary of factors for Roman impetrative divination......................182
Table 10.1. Distribution of types of concepts in the prodigy reports from 218-44
BCE......................................................................................................................208
Table 10.2. Distribution of counterintuitive compared to bizarre concepts in the
prodigy reports from 218-44 BCE .......................................................................209
Table 10.3 Amount of counterintuitive and bizarre prodigies per reporting year.
.............................................................................................................................210

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Acknowledgements
Certain parts of this dissertation have been published or are under publication in part or full.
Chapter 4 builds on Lisdorf 2007a, 2007b, 2007c. Chapter 5 contains parts of Lisdorf 2007d.
Part of chapter 10 builds on a translated version of Lisdorf 2004c and contains parts of
Lisdorf 2004a which is copyrighted by Brill Academic Publishers. It is reproduced with
permission from the publisher.

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Introduction

At the climax of the play Casina by the Roman playwright Plautus, there is a scene, where
the two slaves Olympio and Chalinus have to reach a decision on which of them gets to
marry the beautiful Casina. Today one might expect that the female part be heard in such a
case, but Roman times were different, so they choose to decide it like real men: by drawing
lots! But that is not all; when Olympio eventually wins the draw, he thanks the gods for the
decision. This makes, what was already a strange situation, even more puzzling to the
modern reader, since we just heard that the decision was made by the use of a random draw
of lots. This is not an isolated funny story from an obscure playwright. Quite the contrary;
Plautus was very popular in his time and following centuries and his plays were attended by
everyone from the lowest to the highest classes. The scene points to something very central
about the ancient Romans, namely that divination pervaded their culture from top to bottom.
The basic question of this thesis follows from this example “why did divination pervade
Roman culture through centuries?” I will argue that in order to answer this question a general
theoretical model of divination must first be constructed. This will be done by investigating
the cognitive basis of divination. The thesis will therefore fall in two parts of more or less
equal size, one theoretical the other empirical.
Consequently the dissertation combines two scholarly fields that are polar opposites:
history and cognitive science. It is difficult to think of any two disciplines that differ more.
Whereas cognitive science is interested in phenomena that are synchronic, isolated and
general, history is interested in diachronic, composite and particular phenomena. So before
we can even start, it is necessary with a two front apology for the project. The objections are
probably innumerable, but in order to pre-empt the most obvious ones, I have compiled a
small list of “Frequently Posed Objections” that I have encountered. First we will consider
typical objections by historians then by cognitive scientists.
“We cannot access the minds of historical persons”. That is obviously true, but that does
not mean that the minds of historical people were not important to them. Their actions were
formed by their mind just as contemporary people. It does not, therefore, follow that we
should not care about minds at all.
“Knowledge of modern minds will not help us in understanding historical minds”. This
objection assumes a fundamental difference between the mind of modern and historical

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people. It is almost unanimously agreed that no significant mutations have occurred in the
human brain since around 100.000 years ago (Mithen 1996; Tremlin 2006: 24). If there is
any difference between the minds of historical and modern people it cannot be attributed to
any biological difference in the brain. This leads to two other options: a) the mind is not
constrained by the brain. This is a dualist assumption implying a fundamental difference
between spirit and matter. As this is not consistent with the assumptions of modern science, it
is not an appropriate solution. b) A weaker version of this admits that the brain to some
degree in principle is important. In practice, though, it is the local culture and socialization
which determines the mind of a person. This is a version of the nurture view in the
nature/nurture debate of the human mind. This view assumes that the mind is a blank slate
just waiting to be filled out. Compelling arguments against this assumption has been made by
cognitive scientists and anthropologists alike (cf. Brown 1991; Pinker 2002). This is not to
say that culture is not important, just that the human mind of modern and historical people
are sufficiently similar in general cognitive function to warrant a meaningful comparison. To
put it differently, historical minds are not more different than those of other cultures in our
contemporary world. We could therefore also ask: if the psychic chasm is so great that the
minds of modern people are not in principle as those of historical people, then how is it
possible at all to say something about historical people’s actions, motivations or thoughts?
“We cannot understand historical particulars by the aid of the universal”. It actually may be
the other way around: we cannot understand anything particular without the general. Just as
Wittgenstein showed there can be no private language (Wittgenstein & Anscombe 2003),
there cannot be any “private history” consisting only of particulars. Just using language is
making use of the general (Jensen 2003: 141). In this sense, the general is a precondition for
understanding the particular historical. Maybe some would feel that there is a difference
between the general and the universal. Let us therefore look at an example of how the
universal aids our understanding of the particular. Imagine a geologist who wishes to
understand the magnitude and character of a volcanic eruption thousands of years ago. In
order to understand this particular historical eruption, he will make use of the universal laws
of chemistry and physics. There is therefore no reason to assume prima facie that universal
characteristics of the human mind will not help us understand historical particulars.
“Theories will not help in history. It merely distorts the sources”. This is a typical objection
in ancient history (Morley 2004: 1). It is, however, built on a number of controversial

9
assumptions, first of all that the sources may speak for themselves. This is not a tenable
assumption. Any historical exposition is based on a theory. The only difference is whether it
is explicit. In history theories tend to be implicit and the historian bases his analysis on his
own assumptions about human motivations, social forces etc. (cf. Morley 2004). These are
not shaped by explicit, tested theories, but by folk notions and the historians own subjective
experience of the world. That is perhaps also why every generation of historians has to write
its own history. What actually distorts the material is a lack of explicit theorizing.
“There is an essential difference between history and science. Science works by reducing
phenomena to deterministic laws. This cannot account for history since human behavior
cannot be reduced to any such law”. This objection is founded on two misunderstandings of
the nature of science. a) It seems that the historian fears that scientific reduction will render
the historical discipline obsolete, because a lower level of explanation will replace the higher.
There are however no examples of such a usurpation of a higher level science by a lower
level one (McCauley 1986: 197). b) The conceptualization of law as a deterministic
statement on reality is a dated remnant of a 19th century logical positivist conception of law
which thrives in classical history (Morley 2004: 15). This kind of law applies in every case
and can be falsified if a situation arises in which it does not accurately predict an occurrence.
It is correct that we do not find this kind of law in history, but it is not sufficient to disqualify
it as a science. Contemporary views in scientific theory prefer to speak of invariance instead
of laws (e.g. Woodward 2000: 205-209). Invariance is a question of degree and may apply
locally not necessarily universally. Counterexamples are therefore not falsifications that
render the search for regularities futile.
So far so good, but we still have to deal with a number of possible objections to a cognitive
approach to history from cognitive scientists: “The results do not live up to scientific
standards of verification. The evidence is too sparse to prove anything”. To this, one could
point out that not all psychological research lives up to these standards either. Evolutionary
psychology, the branch of psychology investigating the evolutionary origins of human
cognition, typically does not adduce any evidence of the historical processes stipulated. As
for the history it is pure (informed) guesses without any direct evidence. If one would want to
dismiss a cognitive approach to history, which actually has some evidence, on the objection
that the evidence is not good enough, one would also have to dismiss evolutionary
psychology altogether. The objection that there is not enough evidence is not a valid criticism

10
that precludes the investigation from being scientific. One could point to scientific areas
working on even more tenuous evidential basis, such as human paleontology or astrobiology.
“Since there is no possibility for controlled experiment, there is no possibility for
falsification, and therefore it does not qualify as science”. While the falsification criterion is
an important lever for scientific quality, few today would agree that it is the only necessary
and sufficient criterion for science. Once again let us first consider what other sciences we
would have to exclude from the academy if such a criterion was stringently applied. We
would have to deem unscientific: all of climatology apart from the past few decades, all of
geology apart from contemporary research, all of astronomy, all paleontology; basically all
sciences with a historical objective would be unscientific. Falsification consequently is not
enough as a standard of science. Other meta-theoretic criteria should be given equal priority,
such as consilience and parsimony.
“When you cannot do controlled experiments, you cannot isolate variables and therefore it
is not scientific”. This is another version of the former. The fact that you cannot make
controlled experiments does not mean that you cannot isolate variables. Variables may be
measured as well as in controlled experiments. Most of economy, sociology and parts of
medicine operate on the same conditions. It is true that historical research is constrained by
what evidence there is. It is not possible to produce new evidence and the historian
sometimes has to live with the fact that some things he will never know for sure. What is of
importance for scientific explanation, however, is when changes in one variable will
invariably result in changes in another variable (Woodward 2000). In historical investigations
you may not be able to see all possible combinations of manipulations of variables, but it
does not follow that the results are therefore unscientific.
I do not presume to have converted or even convinced neither historians nor cognitive
scientists that a cognitive historiography is necessary, but I do hope to have succeeded in
providing arguments that would at least warrant the attempt feasible to both sides. It should
also be pointed out that both camps may actually learn something from the integration of
cognitive science and history. Historians may gain a better model of the human mind than the
implicit common sense psychology typically employed by the historian. This can help the
historian to make better and more accurate hypotheses about the historical reality he tries to
understand. The cognitive scientist, on the other hand, may learn that factors that are
important in his lab are not very important in the real world, while others may turn out to be.

11
 In order to answer the question of the dissertation a theoretical model of divination will be
developed. To do this, first the phenomenon of divination will be characterized. Then the
cognitive basis for this will be investigated. The general theoretical model of divination will
then try to integrate these cognitive factors with ecological and social factors. This model
will be used to analyze the sources for Roman divination.
At this point it seems appropriate to clarify what is meant by cognitive science and why
this approach is well suited to solve the problem of this dissertation. Cognitive science is a
term used to describe an interdisciplinary field of interrogation. The object is to understand
how humans acquire and use knowledge. It emerged in, what has been termed, the “cognitive
turn” in the 1960s and 1970s as a critique of the dominant behaviorist paradigm in
psychology. Although earlier significant criticisms of this paradigm had been leveled against
behaviorism, the most famous is Noam Chomsky’s. Chomsky introduced the idea of a
generative grammar. All humans possess a universal grammar. This is a system of simple
cognitive rules on the basis of which all the different actual grammars of the world are
constructed.
This is far from the only root of the field of cognitive science. Already early categorization
was at the center of attention for cognitive psychologists, developmental psychologists and
cognitive anthropologists. Another important precipitating factor to the development of
cognitive science was the improved capabilities of computers. This stimulated research in
artificial intelligence. Already Turing had discovered that a symbol processor could perform
functions equal to the human mind. Therefore manipulation of symbols became a central
concern. Neuroscientists also contributed to the development, because it became clear that
specific neurological impairments had specific effect on cognitive performance. All these
sub-fields continue to contribute to cognitive science and it is not rare that a problem within
one is treated in another.
Since the approach taken here is informed by a field called the cognitive science of religion,
I will just briefly sketch what this field is and what characterizes work in this field. The
cognitive science of religion was inaugurated in 1990 with the publication of two books:
Rethinking Religion (Lawson & McCauley 1990) and Tradition as Truth and
Communication (Boyer 1990). The historian of religion E. Thomas Lawson and philosopher
of science Robert N. McCauley developed a theory of religious ritual. The basic approach
was that of Chomsky, that is, a competence approach. They stipulated a small number of

12
basic cognitive functions could account for certain characteristics of rituals found in all
societies around the world. Just like the principles of universal grammar formed the basis of
all actual grammars of the world, the principles of Lawson and McCauley’s ritual theory
could account for all the actual ritual systems of the world.
Pascal Boyer took issue with anthropology’s lack of a theory of transmission of knowledge.
His argument was that much of religion is not really explicitly transmitted and the
transmission process itself influences what gets transmitted. It was however more with his
book, The Naturalness of Religious Ideas, from 1994 that his cognitive theory of religion was
presented. Here, aspects of developmental and cognitive psychology and connectionist
models were incorporated to provide a detailed account of the cognitive processes underlying
religious phenomena. The book is probably most famous for the idea of the counterintuitive
as the hallmark of religious ideas.
In the middle and end of the nineties, the anthropologist Harvey Whitehouse developed his
theory of modes of religiosity (Whitehouse 1992; Whitehouse 1995; Whitehouse 1996). This
theory differed from the previous. It was based on the identification of two overall types of
religion, one preoccupied with doctrine and religious teachings, and another with emotionally
stimulating ritual displays. Whitehouse explained these two distinct forms of religion by
recourse to the properties of the human memory system. But he also integrated social factors
in the explanation. This was used to explain many concrete examples from around the world
(Whitehouse 2000).
The experimental psychologist Justin L. Barrett started to test the ideas of Boyer in
controlled experiments (Barrett & Nyhof 2001). He also developed and tested the idea,
already noticed the anthropologist Stewart Guthrie that humans seem to have a tendency to
identify agents in their environment, even when they are not there. This led to the theory of
the HADD as the basis of the universal belief in gods (Barrett 1998; Barrett & Keil 1996).
The introduction of an experimental methodology to questions in cognitive science has been
of central importance to the field and will also be in this dissertation. The strengths of
controlled experiments are that hypothetical cognitive functions can be tested more rigidly
than a hermeneutic methodology would allow. The down side ofcourse is that sometimes the
results are a relic of the experimentation situation, without any real world relevance. The
basic problem facing the use of experimental methodologies is to demonstrate the realworld
relevance.

13
 Although new angles and perspectives appear, these early works still inform the themes
and problems discussed in the cognitive science of religion (cf. Lisdorf 2005a).
It still may be difficult to see what is characteristic of the cognitive science of religion. In a
chapter from 2005 Pascal Boyer identifies key elements in the field. He terms this the
“standard” model (Boyer 2005: 4). Overall, there are two ways that the explanation of
religion can move. First, it may move towards more sophisticated descriptions of the
underlying cognitive processes that make religion in general possible and probable in human
minds. Following this approach the problems are fractionated and broken down into smaller
component parts. Second, it may study how these cognitive processes interact with specific
historical circumstances. This dissertation does both. The first, theoretical part follows the
former strategy, and the empirical part the latter.
There are other important features of the standard model. First, of all it implies a
selectionist view of culture. This means that ideas we find widespread in human cultures are
the ones selected for: “Religious concepts and norms that we find widespread in human
cultures are those that resist the eroding, distorting influence of individual transmission better
than others” (Boyer 2005: 5). Second, religion is viewed as a by-product of evolutionary
adaptive cognitive functions (Boyer 2003), not as having a function by itself. Third, “All
propositions of the standard model are general, probabilistic, and experience distant” (Boyer
2005: 7). Let us take this step by step. That the model is general means that it could apply to
any cultural milieu. There are no cognitive theories valid of just one or even several specific
tribes. That it is probabilistic means that the model is not deterministic. It operates with
biases in the cognitive system. They make some things more probable than others. That also
means that idiosyncrasies are not problematic and neither are cultural differences. Experience
distant means that processes underlying religious concepts are not always accessible to
consciousness, but may depend on unconscious processes. One example of this is Lawson
and McCauley’s theory of ritual where the judgments are based on intuitions.
These characteristics also count for this dissertation as it is a work within the cognitive
science of religion paradigm. The phenomenon (divination) is identified and fractionated into
more primary general cognitive processes. Then these general cognitive processes are studied
in their interaction with a specific historical milieu: Roman republic. This attempt is not
unique, other studies have also identified a religious phenomenon and then applied cognitive
theories and methodologies to understand them better. Examples are magic (Sørensen,

14
Lienard & Feeney 2006), prayer (Barrett 2001), sacrifice (Høgh-Olsen 2006), prophetism
(Levy 2007), holy texts (Pyysiäinen 1999), fundamentalism (Malley 2004) and afterlife-
beliefs (Bering, McLeod & Schackleford 2005). The first part of this dissertation is a similar
endeavor; the second part is an empirical investigation based on the insights provided.

In a sense this dissertation is an experiment. Probably only few readers will not find
something that provokes or offends them. It is truly not intended. I hope the reader will
forgive me and not take offense at the dispositions this experiment has necessitated. Let me
try to preempt some of the most obvious criticisms.
The form is a consequence of what I have felt was necessary to complete the task. Since
many different fields of research are touched upon, and since the addition of every new field
exponentially increases the possible objections and need for further contextualization, many
may feel dismay at the dispositions made. First of all, the reader will often miss reservations
and discussions of alternative ways of accounting for the data. This may make the exposition
appear much more confident than is the case. The reason for this is that the flow of the
dissertation would be jeopardized and the exposition would be too lengthy if I were to make
all relevant reservations and take into account all other possible accounts for the material
every time some result or theory is presented. I have tried as far as possible to include
references to works where such discussions and elaborations are undertaken.
Second, parts of the dissertation may appear congested. Some things could have been more
thoroughly discussed, explained or presented. Again this is a consequence of the spatial
constraints of the dissertation. This congestion has also resulted in the move of discussions
related to source criticism, central for the historian, from the main text to the footnotes and
appendices. This is not a depreciation of source criticism, but a decision made for the
dissertation to have a better flow.
Third, many historians will probably react with shock at the extended use of quantitative
analysis of historical data. There is a reason for this (I mean for the use of quantitative
analysis, but probably also for the shock. That is, however, another story). The sort of
analysis I am trying here, with a heavy reliance on quantitative data, is not without
precedence in historical research. The annales school of history inaugurated by Marc Bloch
and Lucien Febvre and continued by Ferdinand Braudel championed exactly this type of
analysis. There are even more parallels to this approach: as a summary of the work of

15
Braudel, Neville Morley writes “(..) the historian’s task, then, is to identify an analyse the
structures that organize and limit human experience”(Morley 2004: 58). Whereas the annales
school only considered external ecological factors as such structures “that organize and limit
human experience”, this dissertation has included human cognition. This has been made
possible by vast increases in the knowledge of how the human cognitive system limits and
organizes experience. It is still important to be aware what such quantification of historical
material can and cannot do. Any quantification of historical material introduces an extra
uncertainty. But that uncertainty is there as well in traditional hermeneutical history.
Numbers do, however, often impose a false sense of security. It should therefore be borne in
mind that quantification is not necessarily more objective. Quantitative analysis will not tell
us much about individual events in history or about the motives of individual persons.
Fortunately this dissertation makes no such claims. Quantitative analysis is, however, much
better suited for analysis of what the French historian Fernand Braudel calls longue durée
(Braudel 1980:31ff), the long trends of history, and since the objective of this dissertation is
such a question of longue durée, why divination persisted through centuries in Roman
culture, quantitative analysis has been the most obvious way of analyzing the material.
Fourth, it is not possible to observe cognitive functions directly. Therefore the inference of
a cognitive function is based on an interpretation of experimental results. Like historical data
even interpretations of experimental results are associated with uncertainties. It should
however be noticed that these uncertainties and imprecisions are minor compared to the
alternative usually taken in historical research: informed or even blind speculation about how
the human psyche is constituted.

The dissertation is, as mentioned, divided in two halves of almost equal size. The first half,
comprised by chapters 1-6, is dedicated to the investigation of the theoretical basis of
divination and the other, comprised by chapters 7-10, is dedicated to empirical analysis of
Roman divination on the basis of the theoretical part.

Summary of dissertation
Chapter 1 investigates how divination has been conceptualized as a universal phenomenon.
An etymological investigation of the word divination reveals that the word is derived from
the Latin word divinatio. This is derived from an Indo-European word and can be rendered

16
“the making clear of something”. Divinatio originally had two different senses in the Latin
language: one, designating roughly what we today call divination and another, designating
the process of finding the litigator in certain legal proceedings. In the treatise De divinatione,
Marcus Tullius Cicero fused the first meaning of divination with stoic philosophy and
created a general category for interrogation. Cicero showed the universality of divination by
examples drawn from the entire known world of his time. This work has been the frame of
reference for all subsequent scholarship dealing with divination as a general phenomenon.
In chapter 2 the focus is turned to theories that have been proposed to explain divination.
Divination had disappeared as a central factor of European culture with the rise of
Christianity. Therefore, when scholars encountered divination among all the different peoples
of the world, they were in need of an explanation. Initially evolutionist ideas accounted for
the differences between the primitive people of the colonies and the scientific European by
reference to cultural evolution: the rest of the world had not yet advanced to the European
stage of culture. In Britain the evolutionistic argument rested on empiricist concerns such as
a deficiency in inductive ability of the primitives compared to the modern Europeans. In
France rationalist concerns such as collective representations and classification took center
stage. With the breakdown of evolutionistic anthropology after the First World War other
ways of analyzing divination came to the fore. It became apparent that the source material of
the arm-chair evolutionist anthropologies was not of sufficient quality. Extended periods of
field work became the ideal of anthropology. This ideal entered divination scholarship with
Edward E. Evans-Pritchard. By considering the everyday life of the people, the problem of
the rationality of divination was resolved. Focus shifted to the social relations and the
function of divination. The French tradition of research showed a continued interest in
cultural classification schemes. This had a great influence on a line of research focusing on
the meaning of divination. The problem of the irrationality of divination had, however, not
entirely vanished with Evans-Pritchard’s meticulous work on divination among the Azande.
Later, pragmatic linguistic philosophy was integrated to try to account for it in a more
principled way. It is argued that, while previous research has provided important insights into
divination, the cognitive basis of divinatino is still poorly understood.
In chapter 3 the foundation for the general theoretical model is laid out. A stipulative
definition of divination is given. Two types of divination are distinguished: impetrative and
oblative divination. Impetrative divination is divination employing a technique to produce an

17
answer to a question explicitly posed, whereas oblative divination is the identification of a
sign that answers a question not yet posed. Divination is divided into three major elements:
motivation, sign production and interpretation. The greatest difference between impetrative
and oblative divination lies in the sign production. Whereas oblative divination depends on
the identification of a sign in the daily stream of events, the sign is produced consciously by
aid of a technique in impetrative divination. These basic distinctions form the basis of the
subsequent treatment.
In chapter 4 the details of the cognitive basis of motivation, sign production and
interpretation in impetrative divination are investigated. It is argued that a questioner is
always motivated by actual or potential misfortune. The sign production depends on
ritualization of the action employed in the divination technique. This produces a
displacement of intention of the ritual agent, that is, the operator of the technique. This is
followed by a cognitive repair process which replaces the missing intention of the diviner
with that of a counterintuitive agent. Most often this is a god, spirit or ancestor. In this
process the counterintuitive agent, not the operator, becomes represented as the author of the
sign produced in the ritual technique. We know that counterintuitive agents are not
represented as having the same restricted access to reality as normal humans. This is why the
signs produced can be interpreted as being true descriptions of matters not available to
normal human perception. The basis for the interpretation process is that the sign is taken as
a communicative sign. The interpretation therefore follows characteristics of ordinary
communication. One successful cognitive communication theory is relevance theory. This is
used as a basis for understanding the basic interpretative aspects of divination. Compared to
normal communication divination is, however, severely restricted. The utility of the
information of a given divination practice may be restricted by form or subject. Some
divination practices will allow only binary interpretation, others multiple discrete options and
yet others rich interpretations. Some divination practices can only answer questions about a
specific subject. The most important function of the interpretation is the credibility of the
information produced. Since divinatory information is considered a form of communication
the same principles apply as for normal communication. In normal communication there is a
prestige bias. Prestigious individuals are considered more credible than less prestigious. In
divination this is split up, since there is a direct prestige effect of the actual interpreter, and
an indirect one of the associated counterintuitive agent.

18
 In chapter 5 it is argued that oblative divination differs primarily in the sign production.
The central problem is accounting for how an event becomes salient and interpreted as a
communicative sign. It depends in large part on the existence of a cultural model sensitizing
people to the possibility of acquiring signs from counter intuitive agents.
Chapter 6 focuses on how to account for the dissemination of divination and brings
together the three previous chapters. By appropriating an epidemiological approach, common
in the cognitive sciences, it is argued that a multi factorial account is necessary to account for
the dissemination. Insights in the cognitive basis of divination found in the previous chapters
are here integrated with ecological and social factors in a theoretical model. The purpose of
this is to say something about what factors the dissemination of divination depends on. This
is turned into a concrete analytical program that will be used in the empirical investigation in
chapters 9 and 10.
In order to see what previous research has found, Chapter 7 reviews the history of research
about Roman divination. It is argued that four primary theses have been used to explain
Roman divination. The historical thesis explains divination as the product of historical
antecedents. The formalist thesis sees divination as mere formalism devoid of any
significance. The fear thesis explains the existence of divination as a result of fear in the
population. The functional thesis explains divination on the basis of the function it had. All
four theses are shown to be inadequate.
Before commencing the analysis it is necessary to look at the extant sources for Roman
divination. Chapter 8 reviews the different sources that are available to us. The sources are
very diverse in character and span many hundreds of years.
The empirical analysis of divination starts in Chapter 9. Here impetrative divination is
analyzed based on the factors stipulated to be of importance in chapter 6. All known forms of
impetrative divination in the Roman republic are collected in groups. It is concluded that the
factors stipulated, with the exception of one, are central in determining the dissemination and
resilience of the individual divination practices analyzed.
Chapter 10 reviews the evidence for oblative divination in Roman republican times. First a
general cultural model is found that specifies the relation between signs and the gods. Then
an analysis of the frequency of use of omen words in the Latin corpus of literary works
shows that this model was often employed in communication. This indicates that the cultural
model was widespread. The Roman prodigies are analyzed in more detail. Here it is found

19
that prodigies are more attention demanding than regular omens. Furthermore it is shown that
the spatial distribution of accepted prodigies conforms to the expectations that can be derived
from the theory that divination is represented as the communication with a counterintuitive
agent. In a summary it is concluded that the factors isolated in chapter 6 as important for the
dissemination and resilience of oblative divination were present in Roman republican times.
Chapter 11 concludes that the general theoretical model of divination proposed in this
dissertation gives a reasonably fine grained explanation of why Roman divination was so
widely disseminated for centuries. It also suggests that the model may explain why divination
eventually disappeared. Further, it points to some perspectives raised by the dissertation.

The historical part is written according to standards in ancient history and the cognitive
parts according to standards in cognitive science. It is therefore inevitable that the reader will
have difficulty in reading and understanding certain parts of the dissertation. It is my hope
that the reader will bear with me and get through the parts anyhow. For the ancient sources I
have supplied a key for the abbreviations used in the text in a section on primary sources in
the bibliography. I have in general provided Latin passages along with translations and used
English editions of foreign language works for quotations, where they could be found. I have
also tried to make the investigation as open as possible by including appendices on the most
pertinent points.

20
Chapter 1 - History of divination as a general
phenomenon

In order to gain a better insight into the history of divination as a general concept it is
productive to trace the origin of the word and its early uses. The investigation will not reveal
the essence of what divination is, indeed, etymological methods have rightly been criticized
for submitting to an essentialist fallacy (Patton 2000). Nevertheless, since every instance of
thinking about divination presupposes another earlier it seems worthwhile to try to trace the
origin of divination as a general phenomenon.
Divination comes from the Latin word divinatio. The first time the word divinatio is used
as a generic term describing a number of different divinatory actions can be dated rather
precisely to around 43/44 BCE (Beard 1986; Schofield 1986) in Marcus Tullius Cicero’s
treatise on divination De divinatione. This is also the first known comparative study of
divination. Before proceeding with a more thorough analysis, let us investigate the concept’s
history in Latin prior to Cicero’s use.

The history of divinatio prior to Cicero

The term is found in nominal and verbal form: divinatio and divinare respectively.
All previous attempts to construct an etymology for divinatio has derived it from deus (god),
and its adjectival derivation divinus, -a, -um (divine) (Ernout & Meillet 1959; Walde &
Hofman 1954). This in turn resulted in two derivations: divinitas (god) and the verb divinare
(to divine) (1st pers.sg. divino). The verbal stem and the addition of the suffix –atio results in
divinatio (Ernout & Meillet 1959: 171). This account accords well with Cicero’s usage in De
divinatione, but the earliest attested evidence of the use of divinatio does not give the
impression that a god or anything godly is involved in divinatio.
According to the dictionary of Lewis and Short there are two senses of divinatio: it can
signify “the faculty of predicting and foreseeing” (Lewis & Short 1975), but it is also a
technical term in the criminal process. No one has, to my knowledge, tried to explain why the
word ended up in the criminal process where it is not in any way connected to the divine;
even the Romans themselves found it wanting an explanation (Gel.2.4.2). It does not seem
immediately clear what the connection is. Let us therefore consider two examples of use pre-
dating Cicero.

21
 Divinatio is attested as an ability of a diviner to see what is hidden. This can be seen in
Plautus’ Miles Gloriosus 4.6.12. Here it is to describe a woman who knows where her lover
is without being able to see him. It is explicitly connected to the term hariolatur which means
to divine. 1 Divinatio refers to the process of coming to know something which is hidden to
ordinary human perception, that is, the perception of the knower. No gods are implied in the
procedure.
The second example is from the criminal process. In public trials, Crimina publica, where
there were more than one plaintiff, every plaintiff had to present a speech in order for the
judges present to choose which was more suitable for the job as official plaintiff (Ulp.Dig.
XLVIII 2.16.; Gel.2.4). This part of the process is called a divinatio. We actually have such a
speech by Cicero called Divinatio in Q. Caecilium, where he flaunts all his oratorical skill to
obtain the privilege of being the plaintiff in the process against Verres. The goal is to reveal
which plaintiff would turn out to be most suitable. Most interestingly no gods of any kind are
involved in this process.
Divinatio can thus be seen to be related to acquiring knowledge about things not available
to normal human perception, be it hidden in a spatial sense as in the first example or hidden
in a temporal sense as in the last example. These earlier meanings of divinatio/divinare do not
fit nicely with Cicero’s and later etymologists attempt to tie it with foreknowledge provided
by the gods. It is my contention that only when Cicero chose divination as a general term in
his De divinatione did the word explicitly become related to the gods. Latin had plenty of
other words designating communication with gods, portentum, monstrum, augurium etc.
There could therefore be another history behind the word divinatio/divinare.
First let us focus on the two basic forms: divinatio and divinare. Divinatio is evidently a
derivation of divinare. The suffix –atio is added to a verbal stem making it a noun
designating an action or result of an action. Thus we have divinare => divinatio which is
analogous to the pattern orare => oratio. This is a common pattern in Latin.
We need to briefly consider the Indo-European root of the word. It seems clear that we
should start from the root *dei- which designates brilliance in Indo-European (Ernout &
Meillet 1959: 175). This root developed into two different formations with *-eu- and *-en-.
Formations with *-en came exclusively to designate day. They can be seen in the Slavic
languages (cf. Bulgarian dan, Serbian and Russian: den, which mean day). The other type
1
It is also described as an ability conferred upon the woman by Venus. This should however not be
interpreted literally: The sense is that love has made her capable of this.

22
with *-eu appears in two forms. One is deus, from ind. *dyewo-. This root also develops into
the Latin word for day: diem (akk.). Consequently the root is not from the beginning limited
to the meaning god or divine. It also designates brilliance, day and sky. I therefore propose
that the derivation of divinare from divinus happened at a time when the adjective divinus
still denoted something like “clear” and was not fixed on the meaning “divine”. This verbal
derivation could then have meant something like “to make clear” since it is a verbal
derivation of a stem that designates brilliance, light or day.
Considering the use of this verb before Cicero where we do not find any explicit connection
with gods, it would be a meaningful derivation. It could explain the mysterious use in the
criminal process. The etymology would still accommodate the use by Cicero since he merely
adds the gods in the process of making clear what is hidden to normal human perception. We
can thus conclude that the core meaning of the Latin term divinare before Cicero probably
was “to make clear” (what is hidden to normal human perception).

Cicero’s De divinatione
The De divinatione is part of Cicero’s philosophical work 2 . At the time of its completion
Cicero was himself an Augur, which was one of the highest public Roman priesthoods
(Szemler 1972). Augurs’ field of expertise was the observation and interpretation of signs
from the gods. Cicero was thus in a sense a diviner himself. The De divinatione is part of
Cicero’s philosophical work. He was very inspired by Greek philosophy and in general tried
to adapt it to the Roman context. This clash between the philosophical influence from Greece
and traditional Roman state religion runs as a basic undercurrent in the work.
The setting is staged as a dialogue between Cicero himself (Marcus) and his brother
Quintus. Quintus is expounding the stoic arguments and Marcus the skeptical (Schofield
1986). The dialogue form was a form taken from Greek philosophy. The basic problem of the
work is whether or not knowledge of the future is possible (Cic.Div.1.1.). Divination is
defined as prasensio et scientia rerum futurarum (Cic.Div.1.1.): prediction and knowledge of
future things. Quintus defends this assertion from a stoic angle in the first book, whereas
Marcus attacks it from a skeptical angle in the second book. The stoic view ties it to the

2
Unfortunately I have not been able to utilize the doctoral thesis by Francois Guillaumon, Le De
divinatione de Cicéron et les theories antiques de la divination, published in 2006, since it has
only come in to my possession after the writing of the thesis. A quick glance through the book
does not, however, seem to prompt a significant revision of the views on Cicero and the De
divinatione expressed in this dissertation.

23
existence of the gods. Divination is seen as communication with the gods. This implies that
the gods must be there and therefore care about humans. The skeptical view on the other
hand will have none of this and produces an argument against this. The first book is the
constructive part and therefore of primary importance. It also determines the treatment in the
second book, since this is a response to the first. Let us take a closer look
In book 1 Cicero divides the different kinds of divination in two basic kinds: Ars and
Natura, which could be termed technical and natural. The technical form of divination is
defined by its application of a discipline, which has been built up through centuries of
observation, whereas the natural is defined by lack of any discipline and a direct relation.

Natura Ars
Hepatoscopy Dreams
Portents Ecstasy
Lots Oracles
Augury
Astrology

Table. 1.1. Cicero’s typology of divination

This typology is based on the assumption that the soul interacts with the gods. According to
Cicero a divine soul (divinus animus) exists outside of humans. This is where the human soul
comes from. The human soul, which is in the body, has two parts: one which is closely
connected to the body, which has the property of movement, sensing, and appetite. The other
part of the soul, which expresses itself in rationality (ratio) and intelligence (intelligentia)
expresses itself the further it is removed from the body (Cic.Div.1.70). Consequently in the
natural form of divination the soul moves freely and can therefore communicate with the
gods. This is what happens when you sleep or is in a state of ecstasy as, for example the
Delphic oracle. In the technical form it is necessary to use rationality and intelligence to see
how the gods express themselves through artifacts or nature. In this case it is the rational
compilation of observation through time, which is manifested in a discipline, for example
augury, extispicy or astrology (Linderski 1986: 2237-2240).
The rest of the work is formed as an application of examples to fill out the typology. These
examples are drawn from the entire known world of Cicero. A good example is found in
Cic.Div.1.88-91. The subject is the validity of augury: first a Greek example of use by
Amfiaraos is mentioned, then one with the Anatolian king Priamos, then a Roman, then one

24
involving the Korinthian Polyidos. He goes on to mention the Gallic druids, then a Persian
example, one from Peloponnese, one from Syria one from Etruria, and on and on. The
outlook of the work is clearly universal. The examples show that all peoples known to the
Romans have known divination. This is adduced as support for the basic theory.
In the second book this theory is refuted. The basic argument against it is that there is a lack
of causal connection between e.g. the constitution of the liver and the communication of the
gods (Cic.Div.2.29). Cicero also points out a number of empirical examples that disconfirm
the thesis (Cic.Div.2.45). 3 This structure is a basic tenet of the skeptical school, which
favored the exposition of a case as the production of an argument and then a
counterargument. The conclusion, however, should be left to the listener (Schofield 1986).
Cicero’s work on divination can be seen to connect a wide variety of phenomena under the
heading of a traditional Latin term. In spite of its possible etymological link to divus the
above indicated that the connection to the gods is a novel. De divinatione specifies a clear
definition and typology supported by a theory of divination which stipulates the existence of
the gods as an active force able to communicate through nature or directly with the human
soul. This typology is given support by a rich number of examples from the whole world and
all times, which is meant to demonstrate the theory’s validity. Actually this is structurally a
model example for science: a theory, a clear definition and a derived typology (Geertz 1999).
But as Cicero points out in the second book the theory has several problems: It lacks logical
consistency and involves entities (souls and gods) and causal processes that are at best
mysterious (such as the relation between some future misfortune, the gods and the
constitution of the liver).

Modern treatments of divination as a general term

No monograph has been dedicated solely to divination after Cicero’s. A lot has been written
about divination, but mostly with reference to a single people or tribe, or a single type of
divination. In order to trace the trajectory of thought about divination as a general
phenomenon, I have chosen to focus on encyclopedia articles on divination, since they are
expert statements about divination as a general phenomenon.

3
He derives logical conclusions from the theory, and shows that they are not confirmed by empirical
evidence. In the example from Cic.Div.45 the hypothesis is that Jupiter can give signs through lightning. Then
he would have no reason to let lightning strike in abandoned places, such as deserts, but he nevertheless does.

25
 I have selected 4 articles, 2 from around 1900 and 2 from the last half of the 20th century.
Surveying encyclopedia entries naturally raises the problem of selection. These articles are
selected based on how well known, comprehensive and general they are. Thus little known,
small (e.g. Brandon 1970) and specialized encyclopedias (e.g. Gärtner, Wünsch, & Pauly
1980) were excluded.
The first example comes from the 9th edition of Encyclopaedia Britannica. It was published
between 1875 and 1889 and crowned by many as a landmark achievement of scholarly work.
It has an article on divination written by Edward Burnett Tylor and starts with a definition of
divination: “This term is used to mean the obtaining of knowledge of secret or future things
by revelation from oracles or omens” (Tylor 1994: IV, 293). This is done on the basis of
analogy and symbolism. Tylor explicitly uses Cicero’s typology and supplies it with modern
examples from folklore and contemporary ethnographies of primitive people. The theory
differs from Cicero’s in one important aspect since it is evolutionistic: divination belongs to
the primitive with its belief in gods, but the modern world has moved beyond this.
The article on “Divination” in Encyclopaedia of Religion and Ethics from 1911 is written
by the classicist Herbert Jennings Rose (Rose 1974). Rose also operated within an
evolutionistic framework along the same lines as Tylor. Rose defines divination thus: “by
divination is meant the endeavor to obtain information about things future or otherwise
removed from ordinary perception by consulting informants other than human” (Rose 1974:
775). This is followed by a detailed typology illustrated with examples from the whole world
under each heading. The different types are: 1) Dreams; 2) Presentiment; 3) Divination from
bodily movement; 4) Divination by possession; 5) Necromancy; 6) Divination from animals;
7) Divination by mechanical means; 8) Divination from nature; 9) Miscellaneous.
The ordering principle seems to be the proximity of the divination practice to the human
mind. 1) And 2) come from inside – the human mind, 3) and 4) from the human body, where
5) is still human but dead. Type 6) involving animals is closer to humans than 7) because
alive, but 7) closer to humans than 8) because they are produced by humans. We thus have a
taxonomy that builds on the opposition between humans and nature. Interestingly 1) to 4)
(and possibly 5) equals Cicero’s natura, and the rest the ars. The work of Cicero thus seems
to lurk in the background of the typology although it is significantly refined. Likewise the
definition also largely falls within that delimited by Cicero.

26
 The 15th edition of the Encyclopaedia Britannica published between 1943 and 1973 has a
new article on divination. This time it is written by the anthropologist George K. Park, who
was one of the most influential scholars of divination in the last half of the 20th century. He
defines divination: “The alleged art or science of foretelling the future by various natural,
psychological and other techniques, is a phenomenon found in all civilizations in all times
and areas.(..) Divination is the effort to gain information of a mundane sort by means
conceived to transcend the mundane” (Park 1974). We see that the emphasis on the future
aspect of divination is gone (although he later mentions that the information wanted always
bears upon the future (Park 1974: 917)); it is simply information, which is the purpose. The
transcendent aspect is still there, though not explicitly as communication with gods. He parts
with the intellectualist assessment of divination as being illogical or pre-logical. Instead he
focuses on the client’s wish to obtain credible information on which he can act.
Park divides divination into “inductive”, “interpretive” and “intuitive”. The inductive
comes from natural phenomena, while the interpretive arises out of a “manipulated accident”
which might involve either nature or mechanical artifacts. The intuitive is prototypically a
shaman. The typology is like Rose’s based on the degree to which the technique is related to
humans. The first two correspond quite precisely to Cicero’s natura whereas the last
corresponds to ars. Park refers to Cicero’s work and complains that the Ciceronian typology
is too rigid (Park 1974: 917), but misreads Cicero when he claims that the class interpretive
doesn’t fit well in the inductive category. It fits very well indeed: the Roman auspicium, one
of the key examples of inductive techniques, is exactly a “manipulated accident”. 4
The last of the articles I have chosen is Evan M. Zuesse’s in Mircea Eliade’s
Encyclopaedia of Religion. He defines divination as “(..) the art of discovering the personal
human significance or more commonly, present or past events” (Zuesse 1987: 375). The
focus is on different peoples’ indigenous theory of divination. These, according to Zuesse,
involve spiritual beings, producing the following typology. 1) Intuitive divination, where the
diviner spontaneously sees the future; 2) Possession divination, where spiritual beings
communicate through intermediary agents. These can be a) nonhuman, or b) human; and
lastly 3) Wisdom divination, where the diviner decodes impersonal patterns of reality. These
are, as in the other cases, exemplified with instances from the whole world.

4
There are some further peculiarities in Park’s systematization. He puts scapulimancy in the inductive
category, but it is clearly a manipulated accident like pyromancy, which he puts in the interpretive category.

27
 Types 1) and 2) b) correspond to the Ciceronian natura, whereas 2) a) and 3) correspond to
ars. The idea of communication with spiritual beings reflects Cicero’s idea of communication
with the divine as taking place within divination.

When reading through these, we also notice reflections of contemporary trends: the
intellectualism and evolutionism in Tylor and Rose reflects the contemporary evolutionistic
anthropology, the focus on social function in Park reflects British social anthropology and a
concern with the morphology of the sacred in Zuesse’s article reflects the phenomenology of
religion. All, however, basically build on the work of Cicero. This can be seen in the
typologies presented.

Year Natura Ars

Encycl.Brit. 9th ed. 1889 Natura Ars
Encycl. Rel. & Eth. 1911 1-5 6-8
Encycl.Brit. 15th ed. 1973 Intuitive Inductive + Interpretive
Encycl.Rel 1987 2) b) + 1) 3) + 2)a)

Table 1.2. The relation of modern typologies of divination to Cicero’s.

It is interesting how great an influence a theory and typology of divination more than 2000
years old has had on modern scholarship. The ancient Roman and stoic model of
conceptualizing gods and their relation to humans have apparently had a lasting effect. The
problem from a scholarly point is that it is based on assumptions that are untenable, such as
the existence of gods and souls. Further, ethnographic evidence such as (Evans-Pritchard
1937; Favret-Saada 1980) suggests that not all divination is even seen as coming from gods
or souls (cf. Boyer 1990). The distinction between ars and natura comes from stoic dualist
assumptions about the soul as separate from the body and may not turn out to cover any
theoretically significant distinction.
What is needed then is to produce an explicit theoretical framework from which we can
derive a definition and typology to accommodate empirical analysis (Geertz 1997). In this
way our typologies are not just catalogues of exotica based on millennia old ideas of the soul,
but active instruments in scientific analysis and classification. In order to aid the construction
of such a theoretical framework I will now survey the most important modern theories of
divination.

28
Chapter 2 - A History of Modern Divination Research

The focus of the following presentation is theories of divination. In many modern treatments
divination plays the role of a convenient angle to describing a culture (e.g. Bruun 2003) or it
serves as an opportunity for the scholar just to publish some of his field observations (e.g.
Beattie 1967; Beattie 1966). Most treatments of divination are related to a specific area or
scholarly field. Among the most productive areas of research are sinology (Loewe 1994;
Smith 1991), the ancient Near East (Cryer 1994; Koch-Westenholz 1995), African studies
(Devisch & Vervaeck 1985; Peek 1991a) and classical Antiquity (Bouché-Leclercq 1879;
Rasmussen 2003). Sinologists have been most interested in the systems and the different
dynasties’ attitude to divination (Smith 1991). Whereas ancient Near East scholars often
work from a philological agenda of understanding what the texts mean, the classical scholars
have focused either on collecting and describing the historical material (Bouché-Leclercq
1879) or on understanding the relationship between divination and the state (Rasmussen
2003). These research traditions have all been formed by the nature of their task and the
character of the divination system. Few have very elaborate theoretical considerations and
few are interested at all in the general phenomenon of divination. This approach can be
highly interesting and a worthwhile endeavor in its own right, but it does not aid us
significantly in understanding divination as a general phenomenon.
Furthermore there has not either been any great integration across scholarly fields. 5 When
there has been an influence across scholarly fields the direction of influence goes exclusively
from African studies to the others (e.g. Cryer 1998; Smith 1991). The field of African
anthropological studies is by far the field in which most theoretical progress has been made.
This is why the following will have a very strong bias towards African material and
anthropological theorizing.

5
It should be mentioned that 3 anthologies dedicated to divination as a universal phenomenon have been
published (Caquot & Leibovici 1968; Loewe & Blacker 1981; Vernant 1974). They could have been
important forums for an integration of different scholarly fields, but they are more like collages of
descriptions patched together from different parts of the world and different times.

29
Foundations - End of the 19th century start of the 20th

The colonial encounter of primitive people who used divination extensively created a
problem of interpretation for the European spectators. Why did the entire world except the
Europeans, at least educated Europeans, use divination? Two distinctive threads run through
the early research, one is anchored in Britain the other in France.

The British thread

Probably the first thorough modern treatment of divination is the work of the English
missionary Henry Callaway (1817-1890) (Peek 1991a: 3). He was originally educated as a
physician, but became interested in doing missionary work. During his mission among the
Amazulu of South Africa he made observations and inquiries into their use of divination. He
recorded interviews with diviners which were subsequently published (Callaway 1870;
Callaway 1970). Characteristic of Callaway’s treatment is a focus on how to become a
diviner (Callaway 1970: 270ff) and the myths surrounding divination (Callaway 1970:
passim)
Callaway notices that people use diviners primarily in cases of illness to point out a doctor
for treatment (Callaway 1970: 285ff) and in retrieval of lost property (Callaway 1970: 314).
The treatment does not try to interpret or explain, but collects facts about the Amazulu. These
facts are collected according to what coincides with a Christian worldview: that the Amazulu
believe that the spirits talk to the diviner (Callaway 1970: 265), which resembles the holy
spirit in Christian cosmology; the process of how to become a diviner (Callaway 1870;
Callaway 1970: 259), which resembles a conversion process; and the mythology pertaining to
the religious practice (passim), which resembles biblical narrative. What is left out, are things
such as the details of the divinatory techniques and the actual consultations. Callaway’s
intention is not theoretical explanation, but missionary zeal. He emphasizes points of
correspondences between the Amazulu and Christianity. 6
This cannot be said of Edward Burnett Tylor’s (1832-1917) approach. In Primitive Culture
from 1891 divination is treated in an overall scientific evolutionistic framework. Tylor views

6
This strategy seems to be a general one in Africa (Peel 1990: 347)

30
divination and games-of-chance as belonging to the same species. 7 Divination is the primary,
and games of chance a secondary development. Games-of-chance are survivals from earlier
stages of evolution. The difference between primitive and modern man appears to be that the
primitive takes divination seriously (Tylor 1891: 71). For Tylor divination is lumped together
with magic. Magic, as divination, is based on the association of ideas (Tylor 1994: IV, 293;
Tylor 1891: 104). The association in thought is erroneously transferred to reality: “he
[primitive man] thus attempted to discover, to foretell, and to cause events by means of
processes which we can now see to have only ideal significance” (Tylor 1891: 104). Omens
are explained along the same lines as having a “direct symbolism” (Tylor 1891).
Thus divination is grouped with magic, distinguished by a faulty transference of ideas onto
reality. This is a trait of earlier levels of culture. The distinguishing mark between divination
and its modern survivals, games-of-chance, is the attitude taken towards it. In divination it is
thought to involve spirits who thereby communicate, whereas games-of-chance are merely
thought of as games. 8 Divination was revealed truth and games-of-chance an entertaining
pastime.
The classicist Herbert Jennings Rose (1883-1961) elaborated in 1911 somewhat on the
claim that divination is based on faulty analogies of the mind (Rose 1974). Rose thought that
divination, like magic, was a pseudo-science. What distinguishes it from proper science is not
lack of logical structure, but false induction. The premises were wrong being based on an
arbitrary relation between omen and event (Rose 1974): “The reasoning may thus be
paraphrased in our definite phraseology: Like causes produce like effects. Therefore this
occurrence, which is like that one, will produce a like result. The fallacy lies in the ambiguity
of ‘like’ and the reasoner’s inability to differentiate between those things whose likeness to
one another is real and essential and those which bear only an accidental or fanciful
resemblance to one another” (Rose 1974: 776). Thus bad induction, a lack of ability to
distinguish real from apparent likeness results in an arbitrary as opposed to a real causal
relation between sign and event. This explains why divination systems can appear logical.
Most interestingly Rose has an explanation for why people do not realize that it is an
arbitrary relation between sign and event: “Divination rests in very ancient and wide-spread

7
“Arts of divination and games of chance are so similar in principle that the very same instrument passes
from one use to the other” (Tylor 1891: 73)
8
Tylor knew that also primitives had games of chance. He explained this as an example of a middle stage
(Tylor 1891: 73).

31
convictions, inherited from lower levels of culture; and its great stronghold is an utter
inability to appreciate a negative argument” (Rose 1974: 775), further he writes that the
reason for the phenomenon’s persistence is that “(..) their consultants have remembered
successful predictions and forgotten unsuccessful ones” (Rose 1974: 775).
With Tylor and Rose we see a typical empiricist view on divination. The reality is out there
and the way to capture it is through observation. This is achieved through proper induction.
This has not been attained in lower levels of culture, why they are caught in the “mind-web”
of analogical thinking.

The French thread

Émile Durkheim (1858-1917) and his nephew Marcel Mauss (1872-1950) had their own view
on collective representations. In De quelques formes primitives de classification, originally
from 1903, they express their dissatisfaction with contemporary psychology as being too
simple in its focus on the laws of contiguity and similarity. According to Durkheim and
Mauss this is not sufficient to explain the organization of concepts. Likewise logicians have
only view for the hierarchy of syllogistic expressions (Durkheim & Mauss 1963: 4). Instead
Durkheim and Mauss claims:”Every classification implies a hierarchical order for which
neither the tangible world nor our mind gives us the model” (Durkheim & Mauss 1963: 8). 9
Instead the basis for classification is to be found in the concept of kinship.
There is a clear relation between divination and the classification of things: “Every
divinatory rite (..) rests on the pre-existing sympathy between certain beings and on a
traditionally admitted kinship between a certain sign and a future event.(..)The science of the
diviners [forms] a system of classification” (Durkheim & Mauss 1963: 77). Thus kinship, not
association of ideas, is the key. Sociality, not nature or individual cognitive ability, is at the
basis of human thought reflected in divination. Another important idea expressed here is that
divination forms a microcosm. This is elaborated with the example of Chinese astrology.
Divination in this perspective helps to maintain the cultural classification system.
Lévy-Bruhl (1857-1939) was a contemporary with Émile Durkheim and was also
influenced by his thinking. He considered similar problems. In Les fonctiones mentales dans
les societes inferieures from 1910 he was more interested in the characterizing of primitive
mentality, than in determining the level and development of culture. Lévy-Bruhl however

9
I have used English translations for citations where I have been able to find them.

32
conceded that primitive peoples did correctly perceive and understand “natural” causes
(Lévy-Bruhl 1985: 281), but collective representations made them think in terms of mystical
causes. This is also the case concerning divination: “Their collective representations oblige
them, as it were, by some form of preconception or pre-connection to refer the death to a
mystical cause (..). The only thing that matters is the true cause and among certain peoples, at
any rate, this is always mystic in its nature” (Lévy-Bruhl 1985: 281). According to Lévy-
Bruhl the method of choice to find this true cause among the primitives was divination,
because it was likewise characterized by mystical ideas.
Central to Lévy-Bruhl‘s treatment is the distinction between natural and mystical causes.
This distinction, which I will call the dual-causation theory, is a fundamental one as we will
see later. Another important feature is that Lévy-Bruhl ties primitive mentality to collective
representations. This accounts for its persistence. The difference between primitives and
moderns is thus not one of adequate perception of the world, as in the English empiricist
perspective, but one of thinking about the world. This in turn is conditioned culturally by
collective ideas.
Durkheim & Mauss as well as Lévy-Bruhl have their focus on how primitives think and
how this is culturally constituted either in collective representations or in systems of
classification. In both cases divination plays an integral role. Whereas the English tradition
concerned itself with issues of inductive truth the French is concerned with mentality, thus
exhibiting the differences between empiricist and rationalist philosophy. In general it is
interesting to notice that there seems to be no principled distinction, at this stage, between
magic and divination. Both rely on the same thought processes.
After the decline of evolutionist theorizing after World War One research into divination
also declined somewhat with some notable exceptions. Instead of the evolutionist armchair
theorizing, the extended periods of field work of functionalist anthropologists, such as
Bronislaw Malinowski and Alfred Radcliffe Brown, became the ideal. Both were teachers of
a scholar, who would arguably become the most central in divination research: Edward Evans
Evans-Pritchard.

Edward Evans Evans-Pritchard

Edward Evans Evans-Pritchard’s (1902-1973) classical monograph Witchcraft, Oracles, and
Magic among the Azande from 1937 is a landmark in divination research. It was based on

33
fieldwork conducted between 1926 and 1930 among the Azande living in Southern Sudan
(Evans-Pritchard 1937: vii). No one had dedicated that amount of fieldwork and scholarly
reflection to divination before Evans-Pritchard. Being a student of the functionalists,
Bronislaw Malinowski and Alfred Radcliffe-Brown, he had a focus on fieldwork as opposed
to the arm-chair theorizing of the evolutionists. But Evans-Pritchard still exhibited the
methodical rigor of the evolutionists.
Evans-Pritchard was educated in a post-evolutionistic environment. Although the
evolutionistic theory had dwindled in importance the difference between the scientist and the
savage was still an important question. For the evolutionists this difference was to be found
in cultural stages of evolution, for Lévy-Bruhl it was found in mentality. The core of Evans-
Pritchard’s project was to demonstrate that this difference was only apparent and
consequently that primitives were every bit as rational and intelligent as the Europeans
(Douglas 1980: 33-35). Evans-Pritchard was not satisfied with how the “arm-chair”
anthropologists treated data from other countries. Theories of primitive thought were
constructed on dubious source material, which was treated selectively: “(..)primitive thought
as pieced together in this manner by European observers is full of contradictions which do
not arise in real life because the bits of belief are evoked in different situations” (Evans-
Pritchard 1934: 29). Evans-Pritchard shifts the focus to how these beliefs are products of
everyday life, not theoretical science or abstract theology. 10
It is not that he does not think that there is any difference, indeed he does, but he finds it
not in any all pervading primitive mentality, pseudo-science or pre-logical thought. Instead
he finds it in how everyday life and its institutions establish in individuals local systems of
collective representations. This idea of collective representations is an idea he got from the
French school of Durkheim & Mauss and Lévy-Bruhl (Evans-Pritchard 1934). An illustration
is when he writes about the “web” of Zande thought: “The web is not an external structure in
which he (A Zande) is enclosed. It is the texture of his thought, and he cannot think his
thought is wrong. Nevertheless, his beliefs are not absolutely set, but are variable and
fluctuating to allow for different situations and to permit empirical observation and even
doubt” (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 195). That which installs these collective representations and
makes them coherent in the Azande is institutions used in real-life situations: “Throughout I

10
This interest, of course, parallels a turn in philosophy taking place at Cambridge with Ludwig Wittgenstein
and the philosophy of everyday language (Douglas 1980).

34
have emphasized the coherency of Zande beliefs when they are considered together and are
interpreted in terms of situations and social relationships” (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 540).
Evans-Pritchard also uses a lot of space analyzing the distinction between natural and
mystical causes. Evans-Pritchard calls these respectively commonsense/scientific and
mystical notions. Mystical notions are roughly notions that cannot be verified by science or
plain observation. Common sense notions can be inferred from observation and science is a
more methodical way of observation. This distinction is used to show that the Azande are
indeed able to observe natural causation, they just supplement it with mystical notions. A
classical example of this is when an old granary collapses, killing the person, who was sitting
below it. This is something that did happen every now and then. The Azande know well that
it is natural for granaries whose support has been eaten away by termites to fall, but still they
search for a mystical cause. They want to find out why it collapsed when this particular
person was sitting below it. This is done by searching for a witch who could ultimately be
responsible. The basic idea is that the collapse of the granary is an intentional act by a witch
motivated by envy jealousy or personal enmity based on past interactions. Witches according
to the Azande can only be distinguished from ordinary humans by an extra organ, mangu,
which they possess. It can only be found in a post-mortem autopsy. The witch could therefore
be practically anyone living close by with whom the person has engaged in social interactions
in the past (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 69-70). This dual causation makes the event socially
relevant 11 , because the witch is to be found among neighbors or other people with a known
animosity towards the unfortunate. Divination as an institution serves the function of finding
the particular witch responsible, but it also installs in individuals the collective
representations that witches exist.
In this rich texture of beliefs, social relations and situations Evans-Pritchard painstakingly
demonstrates why it is rational for the Azande to take recourse to divination when misfortune
hits. It is interesting to see that Evans-Pritchard attaches great importance to existential
phenomena such as misfortune, and to moral behavior and emotional responses. All these
were almost completely absent in previous research focusing on mentality and logical
processes. English anthropology subsequently focused on the social aspect and especially on
witchcraft.

11
”The attribution of misfortune to witchcraft does not exclude what we call its real causes but is
superimposed on them and gives to social events a moral value” (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 73)

35
Elaborations
Witchcraft Oracles and Magic, like no others, opened up for new ways of investigating
divination. Especially two aspects have drawn a lot of attention. One is the social aspects
involved in divination “on the ground”; another is the rationality of divination.
The American tradition of anthropology was originally preoccupied with philological and
descriptive matters, but was also inspired by Evans-Pritchard. The American anthropologist
William R. Bascom wrote an article on Ifa divination in 1941. Bascom, who had read Evans-
Pritchard’s work and concerned himself with much the same problems, had also conducted
meticulous fieldwork from 1937 to 1938 among the Yoruba of West Africa. Of interest to
Bascom was “(..) why people fail to be disillusioned by his [the diviner’s] mistakes” (Bascom
1941: 43), that is, when a prediction does not come true. He argues that manipulation is not
possible (Bascom 1941: 53) and therefore cannot explain the persistence of Ifa divination.
Instead several other factors work to protect the system. First of all he argues that it is not so
easy to find a clear cut case of refutation of a prediction. Second, the system is legitimized in
the mythology of the Yoruba and the system has what he calls “alibis”. These alibis resemble
what Evans-Pritchard calls secondary elaborations and consist mostly of a postulate of
technical deficiency on the part of the diviner. This article is a big advance on Clarke’s
explanation of Ifa’s persistence as a function of the diviner’s telepathical skills or
hyperesthesia (Clarke 1939: 251). Echoing Melvin Herskovits (Herskovits 1938: II, 217),
Bascom suggested that divination might have the function of eliminating psychological
hesitation and give the individual greater confidence in his decision (Bascom 1941: 45). In
1969 Bascom published the influential study of Ifa: Ifa Divination – Communication between
Gods and Men in West Africa (Bascom 1969). This was a comprehensive study of Ifa
divination. In the monograph the system is described in detail. The account is idealized and
no concrete cases are mentioned as in Evans-Pritchard's Azande work. There is not much
theory, but instead painstaking descriptions of what sort of nuts are used for the divination,
variations in terminology across different Yoruba towns etc. He does, however, emphasize
that diviners do not and cannot manipulate their clients.
The point made by Bascom about divination’s ability to eliminate hesitation and create
confidence was picked up by the American anthropologist George K. Park, who turned the
focus exclusively to the social aspect of divination (Park 1963). For Park divination served a

36
social function. Divination legitimizes uncomfortable decisions, which serve to eliminate
unwanted elements in society, thus preserving the social structure. Legitimization is achieved
through casting the decision “upon the heavens” (Park 1963: 197). He takes as an example
the poison ordeal that also served Lévy-Bruhl in demonstrating a similar point. Through the
diviner’s manipulation of the poison in the poison ordeal, unwanted persons are killed with
the legitimization of the heavens. Apparently Evans-Pritchard's refutation of manipulation in
Zande divination and Bascom’s likewise among the Yoruba had not impressed Park. 12
Another example of elaborations on Evans-Pritchard's work by an American is that of
Eugene Mendonsa. He also finds the persistence of divination to be the result of a closed
logical system protected by secondary elaborations (Mendonsa 1978: 45-47). In divination a
dual causation is revealed, but because of the secondary elaborations the falsity of the
mystical causes are never seen. In his monograph from 1982, The Politics of Divination,
Mendonsa is trying to overcome the general problem of social functionalism: that there is no
room for man as actor. Mendonsa points out that divination far from always has a
harmonious effect of maintaining society and group cohesion. Instead it might as well
produce friction, which indeed it does among the Sisala in West-Africa where he carried out
his fieldwork. Since in society a number of contradictory rules exist, deviance is a system
property. In divination the source of this deviance is masked, and a new social construction
of reality is created. He finds the persistence of divination in its utility as an instrument for
the elders’ manipulation and coping with deviance (Mendonsa 1982: 23, 153). Divination is
consequently explained in terms of its function not for society, but for a group in society –
the elders.

The fusing of the English tradition of field work plus inspiration from the French in the
form of Durkheim had a great impact on divination research. This spawned studies focused
on meaning and classification. The prime example of this is Victor Turner, an influential
figure in general in anthropology and specifically in divination research. Turner had
conducted field work from 1950-54 among the Ndembu in Central Africa. In the course of
this he had interrogated a number of diviners on their profession, basket divination, but he

12
It is far from exceptional that the refutation of the manipulation aspect was forgotten. Even in a festschrift
for Evans-Pritchard we find similar misreadings of the Witchcraft, Oracles, and Magic among the Azande:
McLeod twists the source material so that it apparently shows that the Azande do manipulate with the poison
oracle (McLeod 1972: 169)

37
had not himself attended any divination séance. In 1961 he published “Ndembu divination –
Its symbolism & Techniques” (Turner 1961) where he summarized the technique and
dedicated a great part to in-depth symbol studies. In the Ndembu basket divination a number
of symbolic objects are used. The study shows the polyvalence of each symbol, which is
shown to imply the entire Ndembu cosmos and society. For Turner the consultation is a
central episode in the process which begins with a person’s death, disease or misfortune to
the finishing remedial action. The misfortune is usually attributed to tensions in the local kin
group. As Turner puts it: “Divination therefore becomes a form of social analysis, in the
course of which hidden conflicts between persons and factions are brought to light, so that
they may be dealt with by traditional and institutionalized procedures. It is in the light of this
“cybernetic” function of divination, as a mechanism of social redress that we must consider
its symbolism, the social composition of its consultative sessions, and its procedures of
interrogation” (Turner 1961: 17). This idea of divination as a process he originally had from
Radcliffe-Brown and it was to become important in later divination research.
Long gone is the interest in the rationality and logic of divination. The epistemic dimension
is still there, but in the form of an interest in how meaning arises from the symbols. A central
contribution is his linking of misfortune, divination and redress together in a unitary process,
where each has to be seen in the light of the other. 13
The British anthropologist Richard P. Werbner followed in the footsteps of Victor Turner
and was similarly from the Manchester School. He gave a detailed analysis of Kalanga
rhetoric. Here the focus is on the semantic aspect and how the communication takes place
within a consultation situation. In divination a “superabundance of understanding is
produced”. Like Turner investigated the concrete symbols Werbner took it one step further
and investigated actual cases with a concrete context (Werbner 1973).
Similarly following this path, the Belgian anthropologist Rene Devisch is also inspired by
Turner. He argues for what he terms a praxeological analysis of divination to bring out the
emergent properties (Devisch 1985). This approach attempts to shift the focus to humans’
purposeful action. Devisch is inspired by Turner and the Manchester School in considering
the totality of social life and performance. This parallels the critique against the social
functionalist school. In the article from 1985 the outlines of this approach are necessarily

13
Turner did publish on divination again, but Revelation and Divination is a mere reprint of Ndembu
divination, and the introduction merely elaborates and integrates this piece with his new ideas and concepts
such as Communitas (Turner 1975).

38
vague. In later articles it is more clear what this approach entails (Devisch 1994; Devisch &
De Boeck 1994). Divination is a mode of world-making: “in which cognitive structures are
transformed and new relations are generated in and between the fields of the human body
(senses, emotions), the social body and the cosmos” (Devisch & De Boeck 1994: 100).

Meanwhile in France similar studies of divination were carried out by Jean-Pierre Vernant
and Alfred Adler & Andres Zempléni. The classicist Jean-Pierre Vernant was working with
divination in historical cultures. A similar endeavor had already been undertaken by André
Caquot and Marcel Leibovici, but their two-volume study of divination as a global
phenomenon, La divination, did not have the same depth of theoretical explanations (Caquot
& Leibovici 1968). 14 Vernant edited the volume Divination et Rationalité (Vernant 1974)
with the purpose to investigate the divinatory systems “as a mental attitude and a social
institution” (Vernant & Zeitlin 1991: 303). This volume is a collection of historical studies of
divination. The most theoretically fertile paper is Vernant’s own: “Paroles et signes muets”.
What interests Vernant is the type of rationality expressed in divinatory procedure and the
classificatory frameworks used by the diviners. He points out that divination does not form a
separate sector or isolated mentality. The mental function of divination is to suppress
uncertain events by investing certain objects with a symbolic value. These form a microcosm.
Through the agency of the objects in this microcosm, knowledge of the real macrocosm
might be achieved (Vernant & Zeitlin 1991: 310). Divination is founded on a tension
between a formal frame of classifications and the multiplicity of concrete situations. This
idea is traceable to Durkheim and Mauss’ Primitive Classification, and expresses a typically
French concern with classification and cosmology.
A similar tendency can also be seen in the elaborate monograph on Moundang divination
by Alfred Adler and Andres Zempléni (Adler & Zempléni 1972). In this monograph they
elaborately show the symbolisms implied in Moundang divination and how it relates to
society and the individual. Here the divinatory system is likened to a linguistic system
(langue) that brings together cultural symbols (Adler & Zempléni 1972: 210-212). They
explicitly use the terms and ideas of structural linguistics to analyze this linguistic system and
how it comes to be expressed in actual situations.

14
Although Volume 2 has an interesting chapter integrating psychoanalytic theory to understand divination
(Devereux 1968) the articles are predominantly descriptions.

39
 These examples reflect a French tradition of connecting classification to the social. Here
the problems are engaged with the theory of structural linguistics. “Decision making” is not
of central concern as it is in the British and American tradition.

In the eighties the French influence was seen in a poststructuralist infiltration of the study
of divination. An example of this is the American anthropologist Rosalind Shaw. She was
concerned with the interrelation of conceptual structures and social strategy (Shaw 1985:
287). According to Shaw divination involves the selection of particular cognitive
constructions of reality, but also individuals who consciously or unconsciously use strategies
in pursuit of their interests. Since men are in control of divination among the Temne of Sierra
Leone, they have the power to define women, which can be seen in divinatory consultations
involving women. To Shaw divination is an instrument to achieve ontological assurance, a
means to negotiate reality (Shaw 1985: 300).
Shaw later elaborated this view and found that truth is not a product of biological
procedures, but instead of specific legitimizing contexts. An example is courtrooms where
truth is sanctioned. This is the same for divination: “Divination is clearly another such truth
constructing process in which, through the public reclassification of people and events a
particular interpretation emerges as the authorized version of “what really happened”” (Shaw
1991: 140). Thus divination is a truth and knowledge producing mechanism defining
authority and power. Similar sentiments are expressed by Susan Reynolds Whyte (Whyte
1991).
In 1991 the volume African Divination Systems was published. This seemed to be the
apogee of theoretical research on divination. The editor Philip M. Peek, a student of William
Bascom, had left the diffusionist and descriptive paradigm present in his earlier work (Peek
1982) and presented a new approach to divination with a focus on cognitive function.
According to Peek a “Non-Normal Mode of Cognition” is produced in the divination ritual
(Peek 1991b: 205). This is the function of the right hemisphere of the brain, according to
Peek, characterized by analogical and liminal thinking. This has to be synthesized with the
left hemisphere which produces “Normal Cognition” in order to produce a “plan of action”
(Peek 1991b: 203). The diviner thus must establish a non normal mode of cognition and then
with the client mediate between the two. Similar ideas are expressed in the same volume by
David Parkin: For Parkin a dual process also takes place in divination, but this is one of

40
synchronic deep-semantics converted to sequenced surface semantic through Bricolage
(Parkin 1991). These two chapters reflect an interest in the meaning of divination, one most
present in the French tradition.

Somewhat between the great currents in divination research is Michael Jackson. He is also
geographically “between” since he was educated in New Zealand. He worked with the
Kuranko, who live in Niger. In 1978 he wrote an influential article in which he analyzed
Kuranko divination from the perspective of existential philosophy. Whereas earlier research
had ultimately been based in either empiricism or rationalism, Jackson’s existential focus
made it possible to interpret the emotional dimension as more than mere irrational folly, or an
unimportant excrescence upon the system of collective representations. Jackson argues that in
divination emotions brought about by misfortune are objectified in words or objects, which
make it possible to manipulate them (Jackson 1978: 130). But divination also functions as a
way to socialize the individual as it is subsumed under collective concepts and dogmas.
Jackson writes: “The diviner’s analysis transforms uncertainty into conditional certainty and
his instructions for an appropriate sacrifice enable the consulter to move from inertia to
purposeful activity” (Jackson 1978: 134). According to this, a problem leads to existential
anxiety and inactivity because it is not possible to choose the correct alternative for action,
through the objectification by the diviner this is overcome and the person’s problem is
brought in under a system of collective representations, which makes them possible to
manipulate. 15

The debate over rationality had not, however, died although the focus had turned towards
social structure and function. A series of studies took up the question of rationality inspired
by philosophy, particularly pragmatic philosophy. A good example of this is Peter Winch’s
article “Understanding a primitive society” from 1964 (Winch 1964). Here Winch argues that
Evans-Pritchard was wrong in trying to evaluate and describe Zande notions in relation to
scientific rationality. This forces the Zande mind to go where it would not naturally go.
Winch does not think that the collective representations of the Azande form anything
resembling a scientific system why understanding is not possible through a comparison with
European science. Winch was a student of Wittgenstein’s and he argues instead that it is

15
For a similar argument on Roman material see (Gladigow 1979)

41
necessary to find a language that matches Azande’s. Winch finds this in religious language
like Christian prayer (Winch 1964: 370). This has in turn been criticized by some, most
notably Robin Horton (Horton 1976).
Another reinterpretation of Evans-Pritchard's Zande study focusing on the rationality of
divination comes from Emily Ahern. By applying speech act theory, specifically John
Searle’s distinction between constitutive and regulative rules, she seeks to account for why
Zande divination appeared illogical to Evans-Pritchard and other western commentators
(Ahern 1982). Constitutive rules are rules that constitute an activity, such as the rules of
chess. They are rules that define a kind of activity and are expressed as definitions.
Regulative rules regulate a pre-existing activity and are logically independent of the rules of
that activity. They are framed in the form of imperatives. Consequently you can break
regulative rules without interfering with the kind of activity, but not the constitutive rules.
According to Ahern the misinterpretation of Zande divination comes from mistaking
regulative rules for constitutive ones. This is why contradictions between rules and
performance are not perceived to be irrational.
David Zeitlyn is also concerned with the old problem of what happens when contradiction
arises in the course of consultation and he also tackles it in the light of pragmatic linguistics
(Zeitlyn 1990). He studied Mambila spider divination and found that contradictions
frequently arose from consultation. Zeitlyn suggest that the key to understanding why this
was not damaging to the practice might lie in conversational analysis. But Zeitlyn makes a
new move in that he does not focus on the dialogue between diviner and client, but instead he
argues: “We must take seriously the diviners’ assumption that the sequence of questions is a
dialogue between divination and diviner” (Zeitlyn 1990: 662). In order to throw light on how
people deal with contradiction in conversation, he uses a study by Harold Garfinkel. Here a
group of college students are told that they can consult a student counselor over an intercom,
but that the counselor can only answer with a yes or no. What they did not know was that the
answers were given from a predetermined list and hence random (Garfinkel 1967). In this
study it was possible in detail to study what happened when two answers flatly contradicted
each other. Subjects seemed to treat contradiction, not as logical problems, but as question
rejecting moves (Zeitlyn 1990: 657). Meaning is constructed according to a relevance
principle – that the communicator gives the most relevant answer. In order to find this the

42
context of the question becomes central. This is exactly the same as what happens in the
divinatory dialogue.
Contradiction led Evans-Pritchard, and those after him, to assume secondary elaborations
were protecting the closed thought system/collective representations by immunizing them to
refutations. With this article Zeitlyn shows that contradictions are not refutations. This makes
the problem behind the rationality debate evaporate. Instead of logic dominating thought and
dialogue it is instead the Gricean relevance principle (cf. Grice 2001).
Jon Abbink (Abbink 1993) has also worked with the relevance principle, but in the form of
Dan Sperber and Deirdre Wilson’s cognitive relevance theory (Sperber & Wilson 1986).
Abbink also considers divination a form of dialogue, but one in which a lot of the
communication is not explicit. With the help of Sperber and Wilson’s relevance theory he
shows how, for example, pointing is just as communicative as speaking. Whereas Zeitlyn
acknowledged that a dialogue with divination was taking place, Abbink simply treats the
dialogue between the ones present.
Pascal Boyer’s ideas are related to Zeitlyn’s whom he also quotes. He started his attack on
anthropology in general and cultural anthropology in particular in 1990 with Tradition as
Truth and Communication (Boyer 1990). In this book he proposes a new cognitive view on
divination. The focus for Boyer is how divination constitutes a truth making procedure
(Boyer 1990: 61). Boyer finds that in divination the truth is not a function of people thinking
about it as stemming from a god or ancestor, as there is evidence of the contrary, for example
among the Azande where no gods or ancestors are thought to be communicating. Instead
people implicitly make a causal link between the situation at hand and the divinatory
diagnosis. Thus divinatory speech differs from ordinary speech in that people think of it as
directly caused by the situations represented in the same way we think a photograph is
directly caused by the situation represented (Boyer 1990: 78).
An interesting aspect is that Boyer in his theory separates the mental representations at
work in the ritual and the ones in discourse about divination. This makes it possible to
explain why some people have elaborate theories of how divination works, but don’t follow
them in practice. More importantly it renders the question of collective representations and
secondary elaborations extrinsic to the truth production of divination, whereas previous
research with the possible exception of Zeitlyn tried to explain divination’s truth production
as a function of secondary elaborations blocking the refutation of the system.

43
Summary

Divination derived from the Latin term divinatio originally came from an Indo-European
word designating the making clear of something. This found two different uses in the Latin
language: one for designating roughly what we today call divination, another for designating
the making clear of the plaintiff in the criminal process. The treatise De divinatione by
Marcus Tullius Cicero fused the first meaning of divination with stoic philosophy and created
a general category. Cicero showed the universality of divination by examples from the entire
known world. This work has been the frame of reference for all subsequent scholarship
dealing with divination as a general term. Divination more or less disappeared in Europe after
the Roman Empire became Christian.
No research on divination as a general phenomenon was carried out until modern times.
The colonial encounter with people who used divination extensively everywhere around the
world made divination a problem: why did the rest of the world engage in divination, when
the Europeans did not? Initially evolutionist ideas served to account for the differences
between the savage primitive and the scientific European. The rest of the world had not yet
advanced to the European stage of culture.
In Britain the evolutionistic argument rested on empiricist concerns such as a deficiency in
inductive ability of the primitives compared to the modern Europeans. In France rationalist
concerns such as collective representations and classification took centre stage. The
primitives differed in their ideas about the world, not in inductive ability. A central
development here was Émile Durkheim and Marcel Mauss’ focus on sociality as the basis for
classification. This created two separate trajectories of modern divination research.
Anthropology in Germany and The United States was more focused on philological and
descriptive endeavors, why divination did not pose a problem. This also resulted in very little
research in divination as a general phenomenon.
With the breakdown of evolutionistic anthropology after the First World War other ways of
analyzing divination came to the fore. It became apparent that the source material of the arm-
chair evolutionist anthropologists was not always of very high quality. Extended periods of
field work became the ideal of anthropology with the functionalists. This showed a more
nuanced view of the “primitives” and their everyday lives. This ideal entered divination

44
scholarship with Edward E. Evans-Pritchard. He gave a richly nuanced analysis of how
divination functioned in the everyday lives of people. By considering this everyday life the
problem of the rationality of divination was resolved. Focus shifted to the social relations and
the function of divination. Special importance was attached to how divination functioned to
legitimize action and aid decision making.
The French tradition of research showed a continued interest in the meaning aspect of
divination particularly in relation to cultural classification schemes. This aspect was already
with Durkheim and Mauss tied to the social. Victor Turner inherited the tradition for
prolonged fieldwork from British anthropology but was also inspired by Durkheim. His
studies of divination focused on the meaning aspect and integrated the social with the
classificatory and an in depth knowledge of the society, not originally present in French
anthropological investigations of divination. This tying of classification and the social came
to have great significance for later American anthropology.
The problem of divination had not vanished with Evans-Pritchard's meticulous treatment of
how divination was rational to the Azande. It was taken up and discussed under influence of
pragmatic linguistic philosophy. This branch of philosophy of language was developed after
Evans-Pritchard’s work, but had many affinities to it. Like Evans-Pritchard, pragmatics used
the context in concrete situations to explain it, not systems of thought. Pragmatics contributed
with some new analytic concepts that could nuance the original analyses of Evans-Pritchard.
All treatments considered here have their strong points and weak points and they have all
followed trends in their time. I will not here go into the fruitless exercise of dwelling on the
weak points of all previous treatments and ultimately advance my own my as the solution to
all these. I will simply acknowledge that I am standing on the shoulders of giants, indeed I
will profit heavily on the insights of Evans-Pritchard, Victor Turner, David Zeitlyn, Pascal
Boyer 16 and others.
There are, however, three aspects that have not been sufficiently illuminated in the previous
research in order to answer the basic question of this dissertation.

16
I am heavily indebted to the work of Pascal Boyer whose work in general on the cognitive basis
of religion has been a major inspiration. He has treated divination in earlier works (1990, 1994),
but has not elaborated his cognitive theory of divination. Some parts of the exposition here is in
contradiction with parts of his original theory of divination, but I think it is consistent with his later
work, why I will not go in to an extended discussion of his theory in isolation.

45
1) Apart from a few treatments the cognitive basis of divination is not very well understood.
The previous treatments, like the one mentioned by Philip Peek, all suffer from being too
superficial and not founded in experimental research.
2) As already pointed out by Boyer in 1990, anthropology in general does not have an
adequate theory of transmission of tradition. The same is the case for divination. We have a
plethora of studies and explanations of how it works in a given locality at a given time, but
virtually nothing about why or how it is disseminated through larger areas. Likewise no
explanation of why some divination practices exist for centuries and others die out has been
offered. 17
3) Not since Tylor has any account of the relation between divination and omens been
offered, although these two phenomena frequently get mixed.
It is the purpose of the next few chapters to construct a general theoretical model that can
account for these deficiencies.
.

17
It could be argued that (Van Binsbergen 1996) is a partial exception since it studies the regional
dissemination of four-tablet divination. It still does not offer an explanation of why they were
disseminated.

46
Chapter 3 - Definition and typology of divination

In order to build a general conceptualization of divination it is necessary to start with a

definition from which we can derive a typology (Geertz 1999; Geertz 1997). Based on the
research history of the preceding part of the dissertation a relatively non-controversial
definition is: “Divination is the acquisition of credible knowledge about matters not
otherwise available to normal human perception or reasoning”. Since this definition makes
clear that divination is a way to acquire knowledge, let us look closer at how this definition
relates to other ways of acquiring knowledge (See fig.3.1). There are three basic ways
humans can acquire knowledge of their surroundings: perception, reasoning and by proxy
through testimony from other humans. The two first are not relevant in this connection, but
the third is. Testimony entails a kind of communication. The communicator is not always
present, as is the case when we for example acquire knowledge through a newspaper or the
radio. The communicator may also have the information from another communicator who
has it from another and so on. The crucial distinction is whether the source, the ultimate
communicator, is conceptualized as normal or non-normal. Normal communicators are
parents, teachers, experts and friends. They are endowed with normal epistemic abilities that
anyone in principle have or can aspire to. Non-normal communicators are what have been
termed counterintuitive agents (CIA 18 ), such as gods, spirits and ancestors. 19 The proximate
communicators could be monks, priests or diviners. Put more succinctly, divination is an
intermediary process in producing testimony from counterintuitive agents.

18
I have decided to use the term counterintuitive agent because it connects with a growing body of research in
the cognitive science of religion. This way we will avoid unnecessary neologisms. There are, however, some
downsides with this term, since it is not the property of counter intuition, which is of importance here. Let me
therefore highlight what is meant by counterintuitive agent here: first, counterintuitive agents are not
“normal” in their epistemic access to the real world, i.e. they don’t have restricted access and therefore don’t
have false beliefs. Second, it is central that we are talking about intentional agents. Third, a counterintuitive
agent is an analytical term that covers gods, spirits and ancestors, but it is wider in its application since
anything having intentional qualities is considered a counterintuitive agent (Lisdorf 2007a). It is not implied
that any well formed rich, coherent representation of the agent, such as where it lives, mythology about it etc,
exists. A counterintuitive agent may exist locally only in the divination practice. An example of this is Benge
among the Azande (Evans-Pritchard 1937).
19
Pascal Boyer argues against the existence of gods, spirits and ancestors as necessary ingredients
in divination in Tradition as Truth and Communication (Boyer 1990). The term counterintuitive
agent is however more primary than gods, spirits and ancestors. I agree that reflective
representations of this type of agents are not a necessity, but I hope to show that the account here
is consistent with later work by Boyer. For an example of a compromise which stipulates two
types of divination, one involving intentionality and another which does not (Cf. Sørensen 2007).

47
 Induction

Knowledge Deduction
Acquisition
Normal Agent

Proxy

Non-Normal Agent Divination

Figure 3.1. Types of knowledge acquisition

Divination is a way of acquiring information that entails communication ultimately with a

counterintuitive agent. 20 There are four ways such a communication can be conceptualized
(See fig.3.2). The first two types are monologic and the last two are dialogic. The first type is
the situation found for example in prayer, or dedications. Here the human agent is addressing
the counterintuitive agent. The second type corresponds to omens where the counterintuitive
agent is addressing the human agent. The third type is what we see in divination where a
dialogue initiated by the human agent unfolds. The fourth remains a logical possibility to
which I have not been able to find empirical examples. In this case a counterintuitive agent
would address a human agent, who would then respond. Of relevance to us are only the
second and third types. They coincide with two Latin terms signa oblativa and signa
impetrativa. 21 Signa oblativa in classical Latin meant signs given by the gods, which are
omens of all sorts. I will call this type of divination oblative divination. Signa impetrativa

20
Esther Goody has suggested something similar for religion in general (Goody 1995). Unfortunately the
anthology which investigates her ideas does not try to integrate insights from the cognitive sciences. In the
same anthology David Zeitlyn makes a similar point as here that divination fits a dialogic template perfectly
(Zeitlyn 1995).
21
This distinction is post classical. The word impetrativa comes from impetro, more precisely its
passive form impetrire. This meant looking for signs and may be derived from technical augural
language. In classical Latin only the past perfect participle, impetritus, is used (Pl.Aul.259).
Servius was the first to use impetrativa (Walde & Hofmann 1954:684). Oblativa is derived from
the verb offero, which means to bring forward, expose or to bring before. Similarly the past perfect
participle, oblatus, becomes oblativa in Servius. It is not used to designate omens in classical
Latin.

48
means signs obtained from the gods by request. I will call this impetrative divination. This
type corresponds to ritual divination. These two types are the basis of the first distinction in
the typology of divination.

1 Agent CIA

2 Agent CIA

3 Agent CIA

4 Agent CIA

Initiates
Responds

Figure 3.2. Communication with a Counter Intuitive Agent

Now that we have specified what divination does, we need to specify how this is achieved.
Based on the ethnographical record, it is possible to distinguish three major interrelated
elements in divination: motivation, sign production and sign interpretation. The motivation is
what leads to a question posed by a questioner. Without a motivation to know something,
sign production and sign interpretation would not be relevant. The sign production is the
process that leads to the sign, which is finally interpreted. There are differences between the
two kinds of divination, not in the motivation or interpretation, but in the sign production.
Impetrative divination always employs an operator and a technique, whereas oblative
divination relies on a salient event. The outcome of both is a sign. This gives us a typology of
components in divination (see table 3.1.)

Motivation Sign production Sign interpretation

Impetrative Questioner Operator Technique Sign Interpreter
Oblative Questioner Salient event Sign Interpreter

Table 3.1. Typology of divination components

49
 The words not in bold face indicate the parts of the model, which are empirically
accessible. In impetrative divination the questioner, operator and interpreter can differ or be
the same, but they need to be human. They can also be composed of several persons in a
group. The technique is a sequence of actions leading to the production of a physical sign.
This technique can employ humans, animals or any other physical object capable of
producing a sign. The sign can be any distinguishable physical event. For oblative divination
as for impetrative, the questioner and interpreter can differ or be composed of several
persons, but they need to be human. 22 Let us look at some examples (see table 3.2.)

Motivation Sign production Sign interpretation

Practice Questioner Operator Technique Sign Interpreter
The oracle in NN Pythia Ecstasy Verses Priests in
Delphi Delphi
Termite NN NN Twig inserted into Termites have NN
oracle a termite mound eaten/not eaten
among the the twig
Azande
Ifa NN Babalawo The number of Pattern and NN
divination palm nuts recitation of
among the remaining in the associated myth
Yoruba in hand – repeated to
Nigeria generate a pattern

Poison NN Boy/Reciter Administration of Death/survival of NN or some of

oracle poison to a chick chick the old men
among the
Azande

Table 3.2. Examples of impetrative divination

People came from all of Greece to the Delphic oracle with questions. The prophetess,
Pythia, entered into a trance in which she would utter verses as answers to the questions
(Diod.Sic. 16.26. 4-5, Strabo 9.3.5). These would then be interpreted by the locally residing
priests (Parke & Wormell 1956). The technique used employs a human, Pythia, as sign

22
In a perceptive comparative analysis of divination historian of religion, Jørgen Podemann
Sørensen, arrives at a similar scheme as basic for divnation. According to Sørensen divination will
always imply “1. The experiment 2. The exemplar text 3. The ad hoc interpretation” (Sørensen
1999 186). 1. corresponds to what I have called technique, 2. corresponds to sign, and 3.
corresponds to the interpreter. I have expanded these distinctions somewhat with the questioner
and operator and included oblative divination. Appart from this Sørensen points to other features
as general for divination in a cross-cultural perspective that also apply to the account given here.

50
producer. In this case we see that the questioner, operator and interpreter are three different
persons. The questioner could be a group or even an entire city state.
Among the Azande they used what Evans-Pritchard called a termite oracle (Evans-
Pritchard 1937: 352-357). If someone had a question, he would go to a termite mound, utter
his question and insert two twigs into the mound. Next morning the questioner would go to
the termite mound and see whether the termites had eaten one or both of the twigs. This is the
sign. Depending on how the question was phrased it would be interpreted as a yes or no. Here
we have a case where the technique employs an animal (insects) and where the questioner,
operator and interpreter are the same person.
Another famous divination system is the Ifa system of the Yoruba in West Africa.
Consultation begins with a questioner coming with a question to a diviner, a Babalawo. He
performs a technique where he grabs 16 palm nuts with his right hand from his left hand.
Because of the size of the palm nuts either one or two palm nuts will remain in his left hand.
If one is left two marks are made in the powder on his divining tray, if two remain one mark
is made. This is done eight times. The marks are made under each other in two rows of four.
This yields a figure which is the sign. To this sign is attached a number of verses, which the
Babalawo has memorized. He recites these verses to the questioner, who is then left to
interpret its meaning (Bascom 1969). Here the questioner and interpreter are the same, while
the operator is different. The technique employs ordinary physical objects in the production
of the sign.
The last example is also from the Azande. The most famous oracle, the poison oracle, is
used by men who have a question usually about some problem involving a possible witch.
The questioner tells the question to an older man, who phrases it with great oratorical skill.
While he is reciting the question a young boy is administering poison to a chick. The death or
survival of the chick is the sign of this divination practice. It is interpreted by the questioner
or in cooperation with the others present (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 294-299). Here we see that
the operator is composed of two persons, one asking the question and another administering
poison. The technique here employs an animal. We can also notice that interpretation can be
done by several persons in concert.
If we turn to oblative divination we can also consider a number of examples (see table 3.3.)
Prodigies in the Roman republic are examples of oblative divination that we shall consider in
more detail later. They were especially attention demanding occurrences, such as monstrous

51
births or statues sweating blood, which were reported by citizens to a magistrate. They were
then interpreted by specialized priestly colleges (cf. Rasmussen 2003: 47-52). The questioner
was not manifest, but was implicitly understood as the Roman state, since prodigies warned
of impending disasters. In this case we can see that the sign is an occurrence of something
exceptionally strange in itself. We may also notice that the interpreter is composed of several
persons in a priestly college.

Motivation Sign production Sign interpretation

Practice Questioner Salient event Sign Interpreter
Prodigies in The Roman something An occurrence Different
the Roman state attention priestly
Republic demanding colleges
Buryat NN From a An occurrence NN
catalogue

Table 3.3. Examples of oblative divination

Omens among the Buryat in Mongolia are different. An example is the omen that “if a dog
pricks up its ears like a wolf, it is a bad sign” (Humphrey 1976: 28). This is a relatively
normal occurrence, but it achieves its salience because of its being part of a catalogue of
omens.

The typology is a sequence of components that are critical to perform the function of
divination entailed in the definition: to provide credible knowledge about matters not
otherwise available to human perception or reasoning. While there are other interesting and
worthwhile aspects of divination, I hope to show that these components are crucial in
understanding why divination is a widespread practice. In order to do this we need to find out
how each component works and how the components are related. This will be the purpose of
the following. We will start by considering impetrative divination and then see how oblative
divination differs.

52
Chapter 4 - Impetrative Divination

Motivation 23

Why do people engage in divination in the first place? The question is as simple as it is
complicated to answer. Divination is acquisition of knowledge, but not just any type of
knowledge. People rarely if ever consult diviners to know which star is really the biggest or
whether there are an even or uneven number of trees in the nearest forest. You can also
wonder why people in modern times, who believe that divination will tell you the absolute
truth of any matter, have not yet asked for the Grand Unification Theory, which would unify
all the natural sciences (there should be Nobel Prize for that eventually). The point is that the
knowledge sought after in divination will inevitably be related to the life of the questioner. 24
But why is it so? Why do the concrete subjects apt for consultation seem to vary hugely from
culture to culture? Is there at all anything general to the motivation behind divination? To
understand this we need to consider human motivation in general.
The psychology textbook by neuropsychologist Michael S. Gazzaniga and experimental
psychologist Todd F. Heatherton defines motivation as: “Factors that energize, direct or
sustain behavior” (Gazzaniga & Heatherton 2003: 275). In psychological research two main
lines of research can be distinguished. The more biological line has focused on the internal
states and consequently has given more attention to neurobiology including hormones,
neurotransmitters and brain sites (e.g. Rolls 2000). The other line has focused on the life
goals of individuals in a more social or individual psychological approach (D'Andrade &
Strauss 1992; Sloan 1996). Gazzaniga and Heatherton argue that it is necessary to bridge the
gap between these two in order to properly understand human motivation (Gazzaniga &
Heatherton 2003: 276).
It seems possible to integrate these aspects of motivation if we work from the assumption
that the central component in motivation is emotion. At a superficial level it is not difficult to
see that my feeling of pride motivates me to do my best at my exams, that my feeling of
hunger motivates me to go the cantina and that my love for my wife motivates me to kiss her

23
This chapter builds on (Lisdorf 2007d)
24
It is very often the type of information that Boyer calls strategic information, that is, information related to
social interaction (Boyer 2001: 173)

53
every now and then, but there still seems to be some differences between these kinds of
emotion and how they motivate. Recent research on the neurophysiology of emotion makes it
possible to be a bit more specific and eventually we can move towards an understanding of
what motivates people to engage in divination.

From a general biological perspective there is consensus among researchers in

neurophysiology that emotions are part of the human organism’s homeostatic system (Buck
1999: 303; Damasio 1994; Damasio 2003; Edelman 1992; Gazzaniga & Heatherton 2003:
276). The purpose of this system is to maintain the organism’s health and integrity. A
homeostatic system works by regulating equilibrium. An example of equilibrium is the body
temperature of 37 degrees Celsius. This is achieved by feedback mechanisms. If a deviation
from the set-point, that is the equilibrium, occurs a corrective process is initiated (Gazzaniga
& Heatherton 2003: 276). Emotions lie on a continuum of approach and aversion and are a
part of such a feedback mechanism. The purpose of this system is to evaluate the
environment to allow the organism to react adaptively and maintain its equilibrium (Rolls
2000: 179). For example if a feeling of hunger arises the environment is evaluated with
regard to potential food sources. Likewise if a feeling of fear occurs the environment may be
evaluated with regard to potential escape routes. Unfortunately all emotions do not have the
same simple explanation.
There are several different models of how exactly these different emotions and their
neurobiological basis are related. While there may be differences in details, the overall points
seem to be agreed. It is possible to distinguish several layers of the body’s homeostatic
regulation. If we consider table 4.1., we can see an example of these different layers.
Social emotions Sympathy, embarrassment, shame, guilt, pride
Primary emotions Fear, anger disgust, surprise, sadness happiness
Background emotions The condition of feeling good bad or in between

Drives Hunger, thirst, curiosity, playfulness and sexual attraction

Pain and pleasure Approach or aversion in relation to an object or situation
Immune system reactions Fight against a virus
Basic reflexes Reflexes for example against noise or extreme heat
Metabolic regulation Maintenance of internal chemical balance
Table 4.1. Layers of homeostatic regulations 25

25
Based on (Damasio 2003: 45)

54
 The neurobiological basis of these different groups, show that the different emotions can be
related to different neural structures, which in turn correspond to different phylogenetic and
ontogenetic histories. Some feelings, like drives, are properties of the so-called reptilian brain
and are shared with reptiles (Buck 1999: 306). This is not so for the social emotions. They in
turn seem to be functionally integrated in the orbitofrontal cortex, which is an evolutionarily
unique human part of the brain (Rolls 2000: 186f). The higher emotions also depend to a
greater degree on an epigenetic process involving social and environmental factors (Buck
1999: 325). This means that the higher emotions are more susceptible to cultural influence
(Buck 1999: 327; Damasio 2003: 45).
It is also the case that the higher the emotions are the better they are accessed by
consciousness and language. This means that the simple emotions imply more unconscious
automatic reactions, whereas the higher emotions allow conscious “explicit (verbalizable)
decisions involving multi step syntactic planning to be implemented” (Rolls 2000: 180).
Consciousness and language add another dimension since they liberate the organism from the
immediate present and allows for evaluation and planning for the future (Carruthers 2002). It
is possible through individual and interpersonal communication to create mental models of
the world and attach emotional valence to the different elements (Damasio 1998: 86;
Damasio 2003: 54; Edelman 1992: 135). Since the higher emotions are dependent on learning
from others, they will also be variable from population to population. Thus, cultural
differences have an influence on the calibration of emotions in relation to environmental
facts. This is what Damasio calls emotionally competent stimuli. The emotion may be
universal, but the stimuli that trigger it may vary for the higher emotions. Let us take an
example: all people get hungry and all people feel disgust. Hunger is a drive and disgust is a
primary emotion. Disgust is therefore a higher emotion. Cultural differences, or technically
different epigenetic histories, between a hypothetical Dane, let’s call him Hans-Christian, and
an equally hypothetical Turk, Aisha, determine that the former thinks that pork chops are
tasty and the latter that they are disgusting. Conversely the latter may find sheep brain
delicious and the former that it is disgusting. The feeling of disgust is more malleable than is
hunger. It does not matter how often you have learned as a child to be hungry in the morning
is good so that you can eat a healthy breakfast, if you simply are not very hungry in the
morning.

55
 Overall emotions are assigned an emotional valence on a continuum of approach or
aversion. Specific emotions such as disgust, fear, joy, shame, sympathy and pride can be
attached to different objects or situations. But although there is a greater flexibility it should
not be forgotten that a large number of things are universally considered disgusting,
surprising or fearsome for example. Exactly how cultural diversity is achieved in detail is not
clear (cf. Deeley 2004: 253-256), but it seems obvious that language and contextual factors
play a role. This probably does not happen directly through propositions (“be happy when
you go to boarding school!”), but through more indirect forms such as narratives, idioms and
gossip. It would take more research to sort out this question. 26 One way that emotions are
calibrated, which is of relevance to the present context, is through life models.

Life models
Life models are generic mental models of ingredients of life attached to emotions of
approach or aversion. There is some psychological evidence from cognitive and social
psychological studies that humans have models or scripts for life in general, which orient the
individual towards what is desirable and what is not in a life (Bruner 1987; Rubin & Berntsen
2003; Settersten & Hagestad 1996a; Settersten & Hagestad 1996b; Sloan 1996). These life
models appear to be generic structures, widely shared in a culture, normative, and apparently
only specifying positive or desirable events. According to cognitive psychologists David
Rubin and Dorthe Berntsen they are: “Culturally shared representations of the prototypical
lifecycle that locate the majority of transitional events (..) Life scripts deal with transition
points that are desirable according to cultural norms” (Rubin & Berntsen 2003: 2f). These life
models seem to be similar even across generations. In the study by Rubin and Berntsen, a
group of older people told their life story and a group of young people were asked to imagine
the life of a hypothetical 70 year old. It turned out that the two were remarkably similar
(Rubin & Berntsen 2003). Another study showed that people, at least in the western world,
had similar and clear expectations about family transitions such as when to move from home,
when to get married, and when to get the first child (Settersten & Hagestad 1996b). Similar
structures were also found to underlie expectations regarding education and work such as
when to start a career and when to reach the height of the career (Settersten & Hagestad
1996a).
26
The work of the cognitive anthropologists Roy G. D’Andrade and Claudia Strauss is one way to pursue the
question (D'Andrade & Strauss 1992).

56
 What is meant here by life model is very generic. It does not specify the “good life” of
endless luxury, but the ordinary life based on realistic expectations. It may exhibit large
differences individually and between different subcultures. Nevertheless, life models seem to
direct people in their life. It can be likened to a map: If we look at the map and see that the
coastline should be 2 kilometers from where we are, we expect to see the coastline after
walking for 2 kilometers. Likewise if we have a life model that specifies you should have the
first child at the age of 30 it will guide the expectation of that. If life does not accord with the
life model it provokes negative emotions. One study supports this assertion. It shows that
depressive people are not capable of integrating their own life story in the cultural model,
where the opposite is the case for non-depressive people (Luborsky 1993). This is possibly
also what happens in post-traumatic stress (Ochs & Capps 1996) or in general as a result of
traumatic experiences (Siegel 2001). There may thus be a cultural calibration of emotions
regarding what is desirable and what is not in life. This is associated with feelings of aversion
when life deviates from the ideal model. But how does this help us understand motivation?

Motivation as a feedback system

Psychologists Charles Carver and Michael Scheier have developed a model for
conceptualizing motivation that can fruitfully be integrated with the previous observations.
According to Carver and Scheier consciousness of a discrepancy between the ideal and the
present state of the self leads to positive or negative emotions that guide subsequent behavior
(Carver & Scheier 1998). Motivation can consequently be seen as part of a negative feedback
loop (see fig.4.1.).

57
 Standard,
Set-point Comparator

Input
function Output
function
Influence on +
environment
External
influence

Figure 4.1. Schematic functional diagram of a negative feed-back loop 27

A negative feedback loop is a functional system. We meet it many places in our everyday
life. One example is the thermostat of a furnace. The input function is a thermometer
measuring the temperature. This is compared to the set-point or standard of the thermostat by
a comparator. In case the temperature is below the set-point, the comparator will initiate the
output function, which is turning on the heater. This, along with other external factors such as
the draft from the window, influences the environment to produce a new reading of the input
function. If the temperature is at or above the set-point, the output function will be turned off.
The system can be supplemented with an air conditioner, which would add a maximum value
above which the air conditioner will be turned on. We would then have a feedback system
that regulates an equilibrium. Notice that it does not matter whether it is the output function
or some other external influence which produces the change. As long as the input function
does not give values beyond the set-point, the output function is activated.
If we apply this to the previous discussion, the life model functions as a standard signifying
the values determining the equilibrium. Like a thermostat can be regulated to give different
equilibriums, the life model can differ from culture to culture. While the thermostat is set by
a person, the life model is set by interpersonal communication in the group to which the
person belongs. There will, though, still be certain limits to the differences. While our
thermostat systems may vary from country to country, they will probably mostly have
equilibriums making it easy to maintain a body temperature of 37 degrees Celsius.

27
adapted from (Carver & Scheier 1998: 11)

58
 Let us look at an example of what the life model incorporates and how it could work.
Social sociologists Richard A. Settersten and Gunhild O. Hägestad showed that among their
respondents a deadline for marriage between 25-30 years was perceived (85 % for men 82%
for women (Settersten & Hagestad 1996b: 182f)). This functions like the equilibrium in the
thermostat system. If we imagine an idealized case: a single man aged 39, the input function
compared with the set-point (married before 25-30 years) would indicate that something
should be done. He is motivated to go to social events or use net dating until he finds a wife.
When he does get married the input will have changed and he will no longer be motivated to
find a wife. Naturally this range for marriage will differ somewhat between cultures, but still
within limits. It would be improbable to find any culture with deadlines for marriage at 2
years or 60, just as it would be improbable to find thermostats set at 3 or 40 degrees Celsius.
A discrepancy between the life model and the lived life can be characterized as a misfortune
and a consistency with the life model as fortune. Thus we can say that a perception of actual
or potential misfortune or lack of fortune motivates the individual to take action. The action
or output function will also differ from culture to culture. In western culture being single at
the age of 39 may motivate a person to use net dating or consult a psychologist, whereas
among other people it may motivate a person to acquire love magic, consulting a witchdoctor
or indeed a diviner.

Motivation for divination

Let us see if these general insights into human motivation also apply to the motivation of
divination. In most if not all cultures divination is motivated by life problems. As Victor
Turner, who was the first to see divination explicitly as cybernetic function, put it:
“Divination is a phase in a social process which begins with a person’s death, illness,
reproductive trouble or misfortune at hunting” (Turner 1961: 16). Consequently divination is
an output function motivated by an actual or potential discrepancy between the lived life and
the life model. In the psychological studies from western countries we found transitions, such
as childbearing, marriage and death to be central components of the life model. We would
expect that such components would also have a central place in other cultures.
Not much systematic research has been dedicated to the motivation for divination.
Nevertheless three studies allow us to investigate it to some extent. They concern the
motivations for divination among the Sisala, Kuranko and Azande. Although they are all

59
African people, a glance at ethnographic descriptions from other parts of the world do not
seem to differ significantly.
Eugene Mendonsa has carried out thorough fieldwork among the West African Sisala. He
has focused a lot on divination and compiled a statistic for the reasons people had to consult
the diviner during his stay (see table 4.2.)
Reasons Number of clients Percent
To find out about a journey 32 12
A matter of marriage 33 12
A child naming 4 1
An illness 102 38
Insomnia 12 4
Childbirth 18 8
Dreams bothering client 3 1
Wife’s infertility 7 3
A death occurred 3 1
To learn about something in the future 3 1
Conflict occurring in the lineage 4 1
Some animals died 1 0
Wanted to know outcome of harvest 1 0
General trouble 10 4
No response to question 25 9

Table 4.2. Reasons for consultation of diviner among the Sisala 28

About 25 % of the consultations have to do with central life transitions, such as marriage,
birth and death as we expected. The largest single reason for consultation is disease. Disease
is another example of a discrepancy between the ideal life model and the lived life. These
seem relatively universal. Consequently, more than 60% of motivations for consulting a
diviner among the Sisala are directly related to discrepancies between the ideal life model
and the lived life.
Other more curious examples seem at the face of it to diverge from this pattern; for
example consulting a diviner to find out about a coming journey. The reason it features
prominently on the list is that it is not safe to travel in the area where the Sisala live. It is
therefore an example of a potential misfortune. The reason why dreams are a motivation for
consultation is that they may be signs of insanity and thus ultimately of disease. Yet other
reasons have a more obscure etiology, but they all in one way or another relate to the fortune
or misfortune of the consulter.

28
After (Mendonsa 1982: 114).

60
 Evans-Pritchard also provides us with a similar list, although he does not specify how many
percent of the consultations are motivated by each individual reason. Evans-Pritchard made
detailed inquiries into the consultations of the poison oracle among the Azande. The poison
oracle is the central and most important form of divination. Situations that motivate
consultation are:
To discover why a wife has not conceived
During pregnancy of wife, about place of delivery, safety etc.
Before circumcision of son
Before marriage of daughter
Before sending son to act as page at court
In sickness on any member of family
To discover the agent responsible of any misfortune
At death of kinsman in the old days
Before exacting vengeance by magic
In cases of sorcery
In cases of adultery
Before gathering oracle poison
Before making blood-brotherhood
Before long journeys
A man before marrying a wife
Before presenting a prince with beer
Before large scale hunting
A commoner in choosing homestead site
Before accepting European employment
Before becoming a witchdoctor
Before joining a closed association
A man before he and his adult sons go to war
In cases of disloyalty to a prince
A prince before making war
All other matters pertaining to warfare
A prince before moving his court
A prince to discover whether a communal ceremony will terminate drought
A prince to determine the actions of the British District Commissioner
A prince before accepting presents or tribute

Table 4.3. Reasons for consultation of diviner among the Azande 29

A similar pattern as among the Sisala emerges. Life transitions such as birth, marriage and
death account for many of the items. We also find disease and travel on the list. An addition
is several items related to war. War like travel is an event where a potential misfortune may
conceivably occur. We also find more specific items that are specific to the Azande, such as
making blood-brotherhood, joining a closed association and becoming a witchdoctor. They
are according to the culture of the Azande actions that may have great consequences for the

29
after (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 261f)

61
life of the individual. The rest of the items may seem obscure, but accounts, of how they
relate to the actual or potential misfortune or lack of fortune as understood by the Azande,
can be offered.
The last list by Michael Jackson is not as comprehensive as the two previous. It is made on
the basis of research among the Kuranko of Niger. According to Jackson typical motivations
for consulting a diviner are:
A man’s wife is barren
A woman has a long and difficult labor
A man is about to marry
A man is about to brush his farm
A person is about to embark on a journey
A person is troubled by a dream
A kinsman is ill
A sickness or disease does not respond to treatment suggested by a besetigi (medicine-
master)
A kinsman (particularly a child) dies suddenly
A man is about to have his son or daughter initiated
A man is about to contest a political position
A man is about to build a house

Table 4.4. Reasons for consultation of diviner among the Kuranko 30

The list almost seems like a summary of the previous two. We have the same life
transitions such as birth, marriage, death and a somewhat more culture specific item:
initiation. We also find disease and travel as a motivation in addition to specific Kuranko
items. Overall the same picture emerges.

There seems to be some diversity to the concrete motivations for divination, but mostly the
reasons overlap. Life transitions such as birth, marriage and death indicate points in the life
model that are important in relation to actual or potential misfortunes. Disease likewise
indicates a misfortune. These are recurrent motivations and they account for more than half
of the cases, where we can test it. Many items are related to future occurrences such as travel,
war, hunting or initiations.
It could be objected that this merely reflects typical African concerns, since all three
societies surveyed were of Sub Saharan African origin. Let us therefore compare with a
survey done in Japan. The Japanese sociologist Kentaro Suzuki conducted a survey of three
hundred people who consulted a diviner in a Japanese divination hall. 91% claimed that
30
after (Jackson 1978: 132f)

62
divination was “something that can be used to achieve happiness and success” and 89 % that
it was “something to consult in planning my life”. 74 % of consultations were about love,
26% about marriage and 26% about work (Suzuki 1995: 262f). The most obvious differences
to the African societies are that health and birth related subjects do not play an equally large
role. This can be attributed to significant differences in infant mortality and general level of
public health. For the average Japanese work and marriage, and by implication love, seem to
be the central concerns in maintaining a successful life according to the life model. The
survey therefore seems to confirm the general conclusion that divination is motivated by an
actual or potential discrepancy between the ideal life model and the actual lived life, where
some items of the life model may diverge locally.

Summary
It was argued that emotion was central for motivation in general. Emotions are part of the
organism’s homeostatic regulation. They can be placed on a continuum from metabolic
regulation to social emotions like pride and sympathy. An investigation of the neural basis
revealed that the higher emotions are increasingly accessible by linguistic parts of the brain.
They seem to depend on a higher degree of ontogenetic development. By the use of language,
mental models of the world are assigned emotional value. One such concrete example of a
mental model is the life model. Prior research could be interpreted to lend credibility to the
hypothesis that life models exist that specify what is good in relation to central transitions in
life, but also more generally what is positive and negative. This was stipulated to be
culturally varying, but within certain limits. Since emotions in general function as part of the
organism’s homeostatic regulation, a model for motivation was introduced where motivation
was a part of the organism’s homeostatic regulation. The set-point was the life model and
divination was an output function activated by the perception of a discrepancy between the
ideal life model and the actual life. The culturally variable life model indicates the
equilibrium and attaches it with positive emotions, whereas divergences are attached with
negative emotions. This was investigated on the basis of 3 ethnographic examples. They all
showed that divination was motivated by discrepancies between the lived life of the
individual consulter and the culturally shared life model. In short it is possible to conclude

63
that divination is motivated by the perception of actual or potential misfortune or lack of
fortune. 31
The process doesn’t stop with divination however. It is usually just the first step in
removing the misfortune. Usually the information acquired in divination will involve what
should be done, such as a sacrifice, a magic remedy or consultation of another specialist
(Sperber 2006; Turner 1961). A consequence of the model is that divination will continue
until the misfortune is removed, and that it will stop when it is, and, most interestingly,
whether or not the remedies recommended worked or not. This is because external influences
also factor in. A person, who gets well on his way to the diviner, will not any longer be
motivated to consult the diviner. An illustration that divination is continued only as long as a
misfortune is perceived comes from Witchcraft, Oracles, and Magic among the Azande. A
man is ill and has the classical symptoms of being a victim of sorcery. Several times his
family tries to find out who was causing the sorcery, but without luck. When he finally gets
better they stop consulting the poison oracle. What is noticeable is that no answer about who
did it was ever found (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 303-305; 397-399). This seems to be a general
situation among the Azande and probably by all people. They only use divination when they
see a possibility and necessity for changing their situation (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 85).

Sign production 32

As we saw in the beginning divination is understood as the acquisition of credible knowledge

about matters not otherwise available to human perception or reasoning. In the typical case
this process will be initiated by a questioner with a question motivated by actual or potential
misfortune or lack of fortune. He consults an operator who performs a divination technique.
This produces a sign, which is interpreted to give credible information about the matter of the
questioner’s question. The operator is in general seen as competent enough to perform the
technique, but not himself in possession of the wanted information. The technique implies

31
This also provides a corrective to current ritual theories in the cognitive science of religion. The motivation
behind divination rituals cannot be explained in terms of the where the supernatural agent is represented to be
as E. Thomas Lawson and Robert N. McCauley thinks (McCauley & Lawson 2002a), or by a wish for
revelation of the true nature of the world as Harvey Whitehouse thinks (Whitehouse 2000), nor does it seem
to be explained by compulsion as Pascal Boyer and Pierre Liénard stipulate (Boyer & Lienard 2006).
32
This section is based on (Lisdorf 2007b)

64
ritualized action 33 and produces a sign, for example a configuration of stones on the ground
(Jackson 1978), a bird’s flight in the air (Linderski 1986), or a spider’s manipulation of cards
at its mound (Zeitlyn 1990). This sign is subsequently interpreted.
According to most views in anthropology the ritual character of divination is accidental and
has no consequence for the credibility of the information produced. 34 In contrast to this, I
hypothesize that the ritual character of the action is exactly what explains the ability of
divination to produce information not available to normal human perception.
Let us consider the differences between normal intentional action and ritualized action.
Normal intentional action is usually considered guided by beliefs and desires (Dennett 2001:
412; Malle & Knobe 1997). By accomplishing a goal you believe that this will fulfill your
desire (see fig.4.2.)

Intention Goal Represented

Perceived
Agent Object

Action

Figure 4.2. Intentional action

It is important to make the distinction between the actual perceived action and the
represented action. Let's say we see Peter eating an apple. It is readily inferable that his goal
is to eat, because he is hungry (desire), and that he thinks that eating the apple will relieve his
hunger (belief) (see fig.4.3.)

33
The term ritualized action is understood in a technical sense which will be specified shortly (Cf. Boyer &
Liénard 2006: 595f). Some divination techniques like using the Ouija board or tarot cards may not seem like
ritual, but are in this technical sense.
34
Performance theories may differ on this point. Here, however, there are no clear criteria by which we can
distinguish a performative action from a non-performative action (Brown 2003). Also Pascal Boyer’s
treatment differs from this view (Boyer 1990).

65
 Belief:Eating
apple helps
Eating apple
Desire:Hunger
Represented

Perceived
Peter An apple

Eats

Figure 4.3. Peter eats an apple

According to recent theories in anthropology and the cognitive sciences, ritualized action
differs from normal intentional action. In ritualized action the immediate goal cannot readily
be referred to the beliefs and desires of the agent. If a catholic is seen cross himself, there is
no obvious goal (he is not trying to swat flies or scare away bats), if you see a priest baptize a
child, there isn't either any immediate goal (he is not trying to wash the child, indeed it will
probably be sparkling clean already) . 35 What happens in ritualized action has been described
as a displacement of intention (Humphrey & Laidlaw 1994; Richert 2006) or a "goal-
demotion" (Boyer & Lienard 2006: 605). This does not mean that ritualized action is not
thought to be able to accomplish goals, quite the contrary, as we shall see shortly. This is a
special mode of action which could be described as counterintuitive 36 : It is composed mostly
of intuitive elements, but involves a breach, in that the action does not accomplish the
purported or any other reasonable goal.

The thesis proposed here is that the deficiency in the intentional structure brought about by
the displacement of intention in the action produces a search for either another goal, as in
magical rituals (the future coming of rain, or the attraction of a beautiful woman), or another
hidden agent (such as God giving salvation through priest in baptism, or souls of dead people

35
Indeed children down to 6-7 years clearly distinguish bathing from baptism (Richert 2006)
36
On the analogy of what is special about religious concepts done by Pascal Boyer and others (Barrett 1998;
Barrett & Nyhof 2001; Boyer 1994; Boyer 2003; Boyer 1996; Boyer & Ramble 2001). The first, to my
knowledge, to suggest this classification of ritual as counterintuitive action was Pierre Liénard (Liénard
2006).

66
moving the pointer at the Ouija board). 37 The reason for this is that the cognitive system will
try to build the best representation of the action at hand and since it initially seems
intentional 38 , a representation based on beliefs and desires will be built. This involves an
agent, an action and a goal. 39 In divination the action and the goal are fixed from the outset.
Consequently only the agent can be repaired. Crucial in obtaining this representational
outcome is the severing of the link between the manifest agent and the action leading to the
goal. The manifest agent must not be seen to be in control 40 of the outcome of the action.

Agenthidden

Intention Goal Represented

Perceived
AgentManifest Goal

Action
No control

Figure 4.4. Ritualized action in divination

37
The process resembles the repair process known from conversation analysis (Schegloff, Jefferson, & Sacks
1977). Here a missing word in a sentence will be repaired to make it meaningful. This in turn points to a more
primitive and general feature of the human brain, namely pattern completion. Pattern completion underlies
among other things the ability to recall events from memory (Guzowski, Knierim, & Moser 2004) and helps
resolve ambiguity of perception (Maloney et al. 2005). This is essentially also what takes place here. Further
there is evidence that even small infants and infants in general look longer on novel sequences of action
(Kirkham, Slemmer, & Johnson 2002: 39). This shows that even at an early stage infants form expectations
about the sequences of actions, and that, like counterintuitive concepts, action sequences that violate
expectations are attention demanding (cf. Liénard 2006).
38
Because it is carried out by an agent and because it is done in response to a question.
39
While this superficially resembles Lawson and McCauley’s theory of ritual action, there is one important
distinction here that Lawson and McCauley do not make, that is, between the actual perceived action and the
represented action (Lawson & McCauley 1990; McCauley & Lawson 2002b). I believe that the
representational part of the thesis proposed here is in accordance with theirs. According to their theory the
action representation system will build representations of exactly the type stipulated here: agent, act, and
patient (McCauley & Lawson 2002: 14).
40
Bertrand Malle and Joshua Knobe investigated the American folk model of intentionality (Malle & Knobe
1997b). They demonstrated that participants in their experiments make distinction in assigning intention to an
action based on the agent’s skill and awareness (Malle & Knobe 1997: 112). I have collapsed these into the
concept of control. This does not mean that there is no real distinction between skill and awareness, but in the
present context this distinction is not significant. Malle and Knobe do actually themselves consider the use of
the word control, but it is not clear what they have against it (cf. Malle and Knobe 1997: 117).

67
 The hidden agent will inevitably be what has been referred to as a “counterintuitive agent”
because it is not visible (Boyer & Ramble 2001). 41 Such counterintuitive agents have been
found often to be attributed peculiar epistemic abilities, such as not being able to be deceived
(Bering & Johnson 2005), having full access to strategically relevant information (that is
information regarding social interactions) (Barrett 2001; Boyer 2000; Boyer 2001) or in
general not having the same restricted access to reality as humans, that is, an absence of
false-beliefs (Barrett, Richert, & Driesenga 2001; Knight et al. 2004).
There is therefore reason to assume that ritualized action, because of its peculiar qualities,
is more likely to activate the assumption of a hidden counterintuitive agent in the action
description than normal intentional action. There is also reason to assume that such a
counterintuitive agent is inferred to have non-standard cognitive abilities, such as unlimited
access to reality in particular to information on social interactions and causes of misfortune.
Let us consider a simple example of everyday divination. Consider a person, let us call him
Peter. He is single and therefore motivated by his life model and has asked a potential spouse
out on a date, but he is in doubt whether they will have the most fun at the movies or at the
theatre. Nobody on earth can tell him whether one or the other will be better, because it will
happen in the future and human perception of the future is seriously inhibited. He therefore
asks John to flip a coin in order to know whether he should choose one or the other. If its
heads, it will be the movies, if it's tails it will be the theatre. It's heads. This communicates
the belief that Peter is better off going to the movies, but it is not John's belief, since he
doesn't know. Since the coin flip is an action without control by the manifest agent and with a
clear expectation of an intentional outcome, it produces a deficiency of the intentional
structure of the perceived action. An agent is so to say missing, and another agent is inferred
to be in control. Let us just call it Lady Fortune. She knows everything about the future, and
consequently her verdict is credible. Because of the action's character the goal cannot be
attributed to the acting agent and another one has to be inferred (see fig. 4.5.)

41
This counterintuitive agent need not be explicitly represented, but when it is it will usually be a god, spirit
or ancestor.

68
 Belief: it will be
better at the movies
Information
Desire: To know where to go
where it is best to go Lady Represented
Luck

Perceived
John A coin

Flips
No control

Figure 4.5. Coin flip to decide where to go

In order to summarize, the function of the ritual divination technique is to provide a

displacement of the intention of the operator, in order to introduce a replacement with the
intention of a hidden agent. This agent is not represented as having any restriction in its
access to reality, thus making it possible to produce “information about matters not available
to normal human perception”. The physical expression of this is the sign.
From this conceptualization of divination it can be seen that the credibility of the
information contained in the divinatory sign is a function of whether it is the counterintuitive
agent (who has unlimited access to reality and therefore also to information hidden to normal
human perception) or the manifest agent, the operator (who, since he is human, has a limited
access to reality), who is represented to be responsible for the sign produced. Low credibility
would indicate that the operator was responsible, and high credibility would indicate that it
was the counterintuitive agent who was responsible for the pattern. If the thesis proposed is
correct we can formulate the hypothesis that ritualized action will produce higher credibility
and intentional action lower credibility of the information produced.

The effect of ritualized action on the evaluation of credibility in divination

No psychological research about how divination is represented has been done. To test the
thesis proposed here an experiment was therefore designed. The basic paradigm developed
by Justin Barrett and others to test ritual intuitions (Barrett 2002; Sørensen, Liénard, &
Feeney 2006) was adapted for the specific task of ritual intuitions regarding divinatory

69
rituals. In this paradigm the participants read a fictive story and were subsequently asked to
rate how likely something was to happen.
Three fictive stories were designed, in which there is a main character (questioner) who has
an urgent problem that he cannot find the solution to by normal means (an actual or potential
misfortune). He visits a diviner (operator), who performs an action by a special technique
resulting in a divinatory sign, in this case some sort of pattern. The pattern is subsequently
interpreted by the diviner as giving the necessary information to solve the problem. The only
difference between the three stories is their endings; each ending varies according to the type
of action used in the technique to produce the pattern differed. After reading the story the
participants were asked to assess the credibility of the information. The ritualized actions
were characterized by the operator not being in the control of the action (e.g. throwing
pebbles to the floor to produce a pattern) and the intentional ones were characterized by the
operator being in the control of the actions (e.g. putting the pebbles on the floor one by one to
produce a pattern). Based on the arguments above concerning the role of intentionality in
action, we would expect the ritualized ones to be rated as more credible.
It would, however, potentially skew the measure of credibility if we asked directly.
Therefore another way to test the credibility was devised. What we are interested in is not
whether people say that they believe the information, but whether they show it by their
actions. Self report measures are not always very reliable, because many other factors could
distort them. Therefore the participants were asked whether the main character would act on
the answers or not. Answers were designed to recommend action and to be potentially very
costly (danger of death or economic ruin). Therefore it was reasoned that participants would
rate it as more likely the person in the story would act the more credible the information.
After all, people are usually less prone to spending their life’s savings when they don't
believe it will help them. The independent measure was therefore action type (ritualized or
intentional) and the dependent measure was the rating of likelihood the main character would
act on the information.
The null hypothesis is that participants will not distinguish between ritualized and
intentional action. The alternative hypothesis presented here is that participants will make a
clear distinction between ritualized and intentional actions.

70
 Experiment 1

Participants 23 males and 27 females, aged 16 to 21 (M = 18,18, SD 1,4); 75% from

North-Western Copenhagen, Denmark (Bagsværd Kostskole og Gymnasium) and 25% from
Esbjerg (Esbjerg Statsskole) in Western Denmark; 60 % Christian Protestant, 30% Non-
believers and Others were 10 %.

Materials A booklet was constructed with three fictive stories about a person's consultation
of a diviner in a foreign culture. The titles were: the kurabi among the Mwambesi of Africa,
the dendrologist among the Canadians in Toronto and the banban among the Katchikvi in
Vietnam. 42 The three different contexts, African Rural, Western Urban, and Asian Rural
were chosen to eliminate a bias towards primitivism and racial stereotypes. It would
consequently show as a difference between stories 1 and 3 on the one hand and 2 on the other
if the results were attributable to participants thinking that primitive people, like the
hypothetical Mwambesi, thought differently than modern people like the Canadians. The
same goes for racial stereotypes. If participants thought that Africans or Westerners thought
essentially differently we would also see a difference between any of the stories.
In these stories the main character was faced with a problem. These problems were
designed to match typical reasons for consultation, which can be found in the ethnographic
literature (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 261-262; Jackson 1978; e.g. Mendonsa 1982: 114). The
problems chosen were danger in relation to a journey, serious disease and choice of future
education. 43 These problems required information not available to normal human perception.
The main character then consulted a diviner described as a specialist among the particular
people. He was considered able to tell the future by the help of some pattern, e.g. a pattern of
stones on the ground.
For each story four different versions of the diviner's actions to produce the pattern were
given. The information acquired was the same. There were four conditions for action type:

42
Since the research was carried out in Denmark the original material was written in Danish. See appendix 1
for a translation of the stories used.
43
The last item is not on the list in the ethnographic literature since it is tied to a western urban context not
typically studied in relation to divination. Choice of future education was chosen in order to find an item
matching a central concern of many of the participants as most were in their final year in high school.
Education and career, but not disease or journeys are some of the central concerns of urban Japanese who
consult diviners (Suzuki 1995). It therefore seems plausible that education is of comparable significance in an
urban context.

71
Intentional (INT), Ritualized (RIT), Coincident (COI), and Accidental (ACI). 44 Only the
intentional and ritualized were to be selected for statistical analysis. The coincidental and
accidental were introduced to minimize the risk of subjects guessing the hypothesis, as they
were “weird” in much the same sense as the ritualized. The categorization of action types
were matched with an independent rater unfamiliar with the hypothesis, but given an
explanation of the difference between the different types of action. To test for inter-rater
reliability Cohen's Kappa was calculated yielding 0.75. The sequence of the four different
conditions was randomized for each of the three stories into four different sets.
As a dependent variable two measures were made. The first was a question of how likely
the participant thought it to be that the main character undertook action on the basis of the
information acquired (ACC). The information acquired in divination was constructed so as to
recommend an action. The action was potentially costly (traveling through a dangerous area,
choosing a future career, and buying costly medicine). This was done under the assumption
that the more costly the action the more certain people would want to be. Consequently the
more likely the main character was found to undertake action the more credible the
information was taken to be by the participants. The likelihood that the participant thought
the main character would act on the information is taken to be a measure of the credibility of
the action. In order to safeguard, one further measure was introduced. This was a question of
how likely the participant found it that the main character felt he or she had received good
advice (AD). This was under the assumption that good advice would correlate with the
credibility of the information given.
The questionnaire was followed by a section of questions aimed to asses how credible the
participants themselves found different persons from their own culture (ranging from a 6th
grader over an astrologist to a doctor).

Design Action Type (Intentional vs. Ritualized) and Credibility (Action vs. Advice) were
within subject variables, while the different Sets were between subjects variables.

Procedure The participants were given this questionnaire as part of their class. The sets
were randomly assigned and a written introduction was read by a research assistant. It

44
These were constructed on the two underlying variables: intention and control (see above). Thus:
Intentional action is +intention +control, Ritualized action is + intention – control, Coincident is – intention +
control and accidental is – intention –control.

72
explained that this questionnaire was part of a study whose purpose it was to investigate
intercultural understanding. The participants were asked to put themselves in the situation of
the main character and answer the following questions.

Results To test for the effect of Set on the responses a one way ANOVA was conducted,
giving a significant difference only for the Kurabi story in the INT/ACC condition, F(3,43) =
6.839, P<0.001, but not on any of the other conditions in any of the other stories. This effect
can be attributed to one of the sets having this condition as the very first of the alternatives.
In this set the rating for the condition was higher than in the others. It may therefore be that
participants answered before checking the alternatives.
Since the overall results of this story do not significantly differ from the others in any other
ways and since the same effect was not present in the safeguard condition INT/AD, the sets
were collapsed into one for the remaining analysis. No other effects on Action type were
found.
The average rating of the likelihood that the main character would act (ACC) and the
average rating of the advice (AD) he received in the Intentional and the Ritual conditions are
given for each story in figures 4.6a-c.

Kurabi

4,5
4
3,5
Credibility

3
2,5 Advice
2 Action
1,5
1
0,5
0
Intentional Ritual
Condition

Figure 4.6a Averages for the Kurabi story

73
 Dendrologist

4,5
4
3,5

Credibility
3
2,5 Advice
2 Action
1,5
1
0,5
0
Intentional Ritual
Condition

Figure 4.6b Averages for the Dendrologist story

Banban

4
Credibility

3 Advice
2 Action

0
Intentional Ritual
Condition

Figure 4.6c Averages for the Banban story.

In order to investigate whether the averages were significantly different, a paired t-test was
conducted. The differences turned out to be significant in all cases, as can be seen from table
4.5.
Pairs t df P
Kurabi/INT/AC - Kurabi/RIT/AC -3,492 46 < 0.001
Kurabi/INT/AD - Kurabi/RIT/AD -5,492 46 < 0.001
Dendrologist/INT/AC - Dendrologist/RIT/AC -7,480 47 < 0.001
Dendrologist/INT/AD - Dendrologist/RIT/AD -6,761 47 < 0.001
Banban/INT/AC - Banban/RIT/AC -7,189 43 < 0.001
Banban/INT/AD - Banban/RIT/AD -6,113 42 < 0.001

Table 4.5. Paired t-test for Intentional vs. Ritual conditions

Table 4.5. gives clear evidence that there is a significant difference in the participants rating
of the credibility of the information produced by the diviner in the Intentional compared to
the Ritual condition. In order to asses the effect size Cohen's d was calculated. The results are
shown on table 4.6.

74
 Pairs Cohen's d
Kurabi/INT/AC - Kurabi/RIT/AC 0,74
Kurabi/INT/AD - Kurabi/RIT/AD 0,98
Dendrologist/INT/AC - Dendrologist/RIT/AC 1,37
Dendrologist/INT/AD - Dendrologist/RIT/AD 1,45
Banban/INT/AC - Banban/RIT/AC 1,61
Banban/INT/AD - Banban/RIT/AD 1,40

Table 4.6. Effect size of difference between intentional and ritual conditions

These are quite sizeable effects, since Cohen's rule of thumb is that effects around .80 are
large effects.
If the results were confounded with a primitivist stereotype we would expect differences
between the Kurabi and Banban story on one hand and the dendrologist on the other. If the
results were confounded with racial stereotypes, we would expect a difference between any
of the stories. No such differences in the response pattern between the stories can be
observed. This indicates that effects are not attributable to a primitivist or racial stereotype.
The difference in rating could also possibly be attributed to participants who already
believed in divination and therefore already had experience of divination ritual. To test for
this the second part of the questionnaire was used. It contained a series of questions about
how likely different persons in the participants’ own culture were to predict the future. The
list included normal persons such as doctors, engineers and 6th graders, as well as diviners.
Believers in divination were taken to be people who rated the ability to predict the future high
for the following persons: Shaman, Numerologist, Tarot Card Reader, Cheiromantic,
Clairvoyant, and Astrologist. There was no significant correlation between scores on these
items and ratings of the Ritual condition. Neither was there any effect of religious affiliation
on the ratings of credibility of the ritual condition in the stories given. The difference
between intentional and ritual conditions can therefore not be attributed to prior belief in
divination or religious convictions.
It could also be that participants were able to spot the difference and detect the ritual
conditions. That would assume a familiarity with ritualized action. This cannot be rejected,
but the participants' experience of rituals in general and divination in particular must be
assumed to be very poor in a secular, primarily Protestant, country like Denmark. Further
diviners are not common in their culture. The older participants of the group could have been

75
exposed to rituals in teaching since religious studies is on the curriculum for the last year of
high-school. If this is the explanation for the preference for ritual, we would expect to see
differences in rating depending on age with the younger participants not yet exposed to
teaching on religion answering differently than the older. This was not the case. There was no
effect of age on ratings of credibility.
Since the most obvious confounds can be ruled out it is possible to attribute the effect to
universal cognitive processes. The results are consistent with the hypothesis proposed:
ritualized production of the pattern resulted in higher ratings of the credibility of the
information than did intentional. This is consistent with the thesis that ritualized action in
divination creates the representation of a counterintuitive agent as the intention behind the
sign produced by the divinatory technique.
It could be argued against this that the results only allow us to conclude something about
how people think divination clients think about divination. It remains a possibility that actual
divination clients think differently about divination. This would entail separate cognitive
mechanisms for cognizing others’ actions from those used in cognizing own actions. There is
a large body of literature, however, that supports the opposite conclusion; that the same
cognitive and neural resources are used to cognize own and others actions (Barsalou 1999;
Blakemore & Decety 2001; Gallese 2001; Gallese & Goldman 1998; Jeannerod 1999). Only
further research involving actual practice of divination can settle this question.

The effect of different types of ritual techniques

The wide variety of divination techniques in the world suggests that there are other factors
contributing to the judgments of credibility than ritualization, or to put it more plainly: there
are many different kinds of ritualized action, but they are not all considered equally credible.
What other factors help to predict which divination techniques are more credible than others?
Is it merely local cultural differences or are there also significant cognitive biases that make
some types of divination techniques more likely to be thought of as credible?
Since the overall thesis is that divination through ritualization of action creates an
inference of another hidden intentionality, such as a god 45 , it would be reasonable to assume
that the focus of the technique is important. Human categorization is divided into different
ontological domains such as intuitive psychology, intuitive biology and intuitive physics
45
Technically there is no difference between gods, spirits, souls and ancestors in the cognitive science of
religion since what is important is their disembodied intentionality.

76
(Atran 1990; Bloom 2004; Keil 1979; Keil 1989). Although these domains are domain
specific, intuitive biology is closer to intuitive psychology than intuitive physics since the
former two share more features. Animals and humans both move by them selves and live and
die, whereas that is not the case for stones. It would therefore be possible that techniques,
with a focus on categories activating the domain of intuitive psychology, would be more
likely to facilitate an inference of a hidden intentionality than those activating intuitive
biology. They would in turn be more likely than those implying intuitive physics.
In order to test this possibility an experiment was designed along the same lines as
experiment 1. A fictive story was created where a person wants to find out the reason for his
disease. He is faced with a choice between three different types of diviners, of whom he can
consult only one. The only significant difference between them is that they use different
kinds of ritual techniques activating assumptions from intuitive psychology (ecstasy), biology
(watching birds) or physics (listening to the wind).

Experiment 2

Participants 40 participants, 17 male 23 female aged 16-20 (M=18.33, SD=1.3), 77.5 %

from the western Copenhagen Region and 22.5% from Esbjerg at the west coast of Denmark.
They were primarily Christian protestant (49%) and Non-believers (44%). Other religious
affiliations were 7%.

Materials A booklet similar to the one in experiment 1 was constructed. The first section
with stories used for experiment 1 was substituted with a story about the fictive Guzul people
of Central Australia. 46 They were described as having three different kinds of specialists,
whom they often used to determine the hidden causes of peoples' misfortune. The main
character is trying to find out why he has been sick for months and wants to know what to do
to get better. He has to choose one of three diviners. They are all deemed reliable and have a
good reputation. The only difference between them is the technique they employ to
communicate with a god. In order to increase the ecological validity, the different techniques
are relatively common divination techniques taken from the ethnographic literature. The
technique associated with intuitive physics is someone who communicates with a god by

46
For a translation of the story used see appendix 2.

77
listening to the sound of the wind in a cave, the intuitive biology technique is someone who
communicates by looking at the flight of the birds, and the intuitive psychology technique is
someone who communicates by ecstatic possession.
The sequence in which the three different techniques appeared, were randomized into 3
different sets.

Design and procedure Divination Type was a within subject variable and Set was a
between subjects variable. The procedure was the same as in experiment 1 and the same
instructions were given. The different sets were randomly assigned to the participants.

Results A one way ANOVA revealed that there were no overall effects of Set on Divination
Type. Therefore the different sets were collapsed into one for further statistical analysis. The
distribution was as expected (See fig. 4.7.)

Guzul

25

20

15
Frequency
10

0
Wind Birds Ecstasis
Type of technique

Figure 4.7 Choice of diviner based on the divination technique employed

The difference between the different techniques was significant χ2(2) = 8.00 p<.05. In order
to see whether this was attributable to participants personal preference for diviners, further
analysis was carried out. We would expect that participants who in general found techniques
focused on intuitive physics 47 more credible would prefer the “wind diviner”, and people
who found techniques focused on intuitive psychology 48 would find the ecstatic diviner more

47
Diviners with intuitive physics techniques that appear in the second section addressing the participants own
beliefs are: Astrologists (stars), Numerologists (dates, letters), and Tarot-card reader (cards).
48
Diviners with intuitive psychology techniques are: Cheiromantic (hand), Shaman (ecstasy) and Clairvoyant
(possession).

78
credible. 49 Those who rated the ability of these diviners to predict the future as high should
also prefer the same kind. The statistical analysis did not reveal any significant correlation
between personal ratings of credibility on the selected groups and Divination Type. For the
group who chose the ecstatic diviner the ratings for the credibility of the intuitive psychology
techniques were actually lower than for those who chose the other diviners. In general the
astrologist was the most credible diviner, which goes against the results in experiment 2. 50 It
seems that the effect is not attributable to personal or cultural bias. There does therefore seem
to be a cognitive bias in the choice of divination techniques which depends on what
ontological domains they activate.

Summary
The thesis of this chapter was that in divinatory sign-production ritualized action serves to
produce a displacement of intention. This leads to a deficiency in the representation of the
intentional structure of the action. By a process of repair a secondary hidden or
counterintuitive agent is introduced to make sense of the action. This counterintuitive agent is
not represented to have the same epistemic limitations as normal human agents. This makes it
possible to represent the counterintuitive agent as having accurate credible knowledge of the
hidden matter sought after. Experiment one showed that Danish high-school students, who
have no great knowledge of or belief in divination still had a strong intuition that ritualized
action produced more credible information than normal intentional action. This is consistent
with the thesis presented.
There also seemed to be a difference based on the technique employed. Techniques
activating assumption associated with intuitive psychology domain were more likely to be
chosen than techniques activating intuitive biology or intuitive physics. It therefore seems
that there is a cognitive bias towards techniques activating intuitive psychology assumptions.

49
No diviner using techniques focused on intuitive biology are well known enough to have been included in
the questionnaire.
50
One might legitimately ask why, if people prefer intuitive psychology techniques, the most popular is an
intuitive physics technique. It is beyond the limits of this chapter to answer that question, but suffice it to say
that astrology probably gains a lot of its credibility in its technique mimicking science, which in Western
culture is the ultimate source of credible information.

79
Interpretation

As we saw in the previous chapter the purpose of divination is to facilitate a connection to a

counterintuitive agent. This connection with a counterintuitive agent forms the basis of or
precondition for interpretation in divination. It would therefore be relevant to start by
considering how and why counterintuitive agents are so easily represented and engaged with
universally. The predominant view in the cognitive science of religion is that humans possess
what has been called a Hyperactive Agency Detection Device or HADD (Barrett 2000). The
hyperactivity of this device accounts for why humans often engage in interaction with
counterintuitive agents. That would imply that the HADD is the explanation for why
divination works. Therefore this theory needs further consideration.
The basic line of argumentation for most research in cognition and culture is the following:
The human cognitive system is evolved through natural selection. Consequently adaptive
cognitive functions have provided increased fitness. 51 This approach has frequently been
used in the cognitive science of religion to explain why religion is widespread in human
cultures (Atran 2002; Atran & Norenzayan 2004; Boyer 2003). A central feature of this
endeavor has been to explain the ubiquity in human cultures of belief in superhuman agents
(Atran & Norenzayan 2004; Barrett 2004; Boyer & Ramble 2001). This has in most cases
been done with recourse to a stipulated hyperactive agency detection function, what Justin
Barrett has termed the Hyperactive Agency Detection Device or HADD (Barrett 2000: 31). I
will now consider whether the widespread belief in and interaction with superhuman agents
(gods, ghosts and ancestors) can be adequately explained by the HADD.

52
Explaining cognitive functions by evolutionary psychology
The ultimate explanation of hyperactive agency detection is made with recourse to
evolutionary psychology (Barrett 2000: 32). Evolutionary psychology’s strategy is to explain
universal cognitive phenomena by evolved psychological functions. Let us consider this
strategy as it is presented by the founders of evolutionary psychology anthropologist John
Tooby and psychologist Leda Cosmides. Any given cognitive function is stipulated to have
provided a selective advantage in the human ancestral environment thereby accounting for its
51
The argument has been spelled out in more detail by John Tooby, Leda Cosmides, Dan Sperber and others
(Barkow, Cosmides, & Tooby 1995; Bloch & Sperber 2002; Sperber & Hirschfeld 2004; Sperber 1996)
52
This section is an adapted version of a forthcoming chapter (Lisdorf 2007a).

80
present existence, as the slogan goes: “Our modern skulls house a stone age mind”. The
function may be triggered in other contexts than that for which it was selected. Then we are
talking about by-products of the original function. 53
But a couple of quite basic points need to be emphasized before we proceed: first, cognitive
functions are not inherited; only genes are, and cognitive functions do not have any selective
advantages; only behavior does. Second, cognitive functions cannot be observed, only
inferred from behavior. Likewise only the scantiest evidence exists of any connection
between a given gene and a cognitive function. Add to this the hypothetical function in a
largely unknown environment (the Stone Age), and we end up with quite a mixture of “what
ifs”, “maybes” and “probablies”. That, of course, is the nature of science. But the nature of
science is also to use all available evidence in the investigation, and not introduce more
hypotheses than are needed.
Let us therefore spell out in detail the premises for the argument. For a cognitive function,
F, to have been adaptive, it is necessary that a gene produces a neural structure, S, which
reliably produces the cognitive function F. F always leads to behavior B, which has been
adaptive in an ancestral environment and conferred an increased fitness on its carrier.
Empirically we only have access to B and S. 54 B is observed in psychological experiments,
and S can be observed through a number of techniques, such as various scanning techniques,
lesion studies, single cell recordings, brain surgery and autopsies. Evolutionary psychology
has almost exclusively focused on B (e.g. the primer). This is not a wise move in an
environment with so many hypothetical assumptions.
Before we start to look for an extra hypothesis concerning the environment of evolutionary
adaptation for any uniquely human cognitive function, F, we should expect to find:
1) A neural structure, S, reliably producing the stipulated cognitive function, F, under
certain input conditions causing a range of behaviors B1..Bn.
2) S should be unique to humans
3) All instances of B1..Bn should be caused by S through F

53
For a short and accessible introduction presenting these thoughts, confer the primer on the web-site for the
Center for Evolutionary Psychology (http://www.psych.ucsb.edu/research/cep/primer.html (28 February
2007))
54
The different levels: behaviour, cognitive function and neural structure are based on the classic
distinction between levels of analysis in cognitive science made by David Marr (Marr 1982).

81
 The first point is the causal nexus of the argument explaining the existence of any given
evolved cognitive function. Usually evolutionary psychology is manipulating B in
psychological experiments to infer properties of F. Thus a difference in cognitive function is
inferred from differences in behavior. Tooby & Cosmides for example found that subjects
performed differently in the “Wason selection task”, when the problem was framed as a
social problem instead of a logical problem (Cosmides & Tooby 2005: 597).
The second point naturally only goes for neural structures causing behaviors specific to
humans. Behaviors related to religion are by most accounts such. Behaviors we share with
animals would not include this clause.
The third point is trickier. It amounts to distinguishing homology from analogy. It is
possible that two apparently identical behaviors have different neural substructures, in which
case they are analogous. This is the case for example of ritualized behavior, which is similar
to obsessive ompulaory disorder and normal routine behavior. While routine behavior is
analogous to ritualized behavior, obsessive ompulaory disorder seems to be homologous
(Boyer & Lienard 2006: 606). When they are analogical features, they need two different
explanations. The evoulutionary psychology account has to make sure that the behaviors are
homological or must assume that they are. An example is doing the “Wason selection task” in
terms of a social problem, must be homological, or assumed to be homological, with actual
social problem solving tasks in real life.
While a number of scholars have used some sort of hyperactive agency detection I will
focus on only two examples namely Scott Atran & Ara Norenzayan and Justin L. Barrett. Let
me just shortly mention those left out: The anthropologist Stewart Guthrie’s account is the
first, but he does not think of agency detection as primarily a cognitive function, but rather as
a perceptual function (Guthrie 1980; Guthrie 2004; Guthrie 1993; Guthrie 2001). Pascal
Boyer does not explain the function with recourse to agency detection per se, but instead with
reference to a tendency of the cognitive system to search for relevance and agentive concepts
since they can produce more inferences than non-agentive. The explanation is thus made with
recourse to a cost/benefit algorithm working as a system property of the mind, rather than to
hyperactivity (Boyer 2001; Boyer 1996). The explanation is clearly compatible with the
HADD, but does not depend on it. 55

55
I do believe that these arguments suffer from other set backs, but space does not allow me to
treat them thoroughly.

82
 Let us presently consider how hyperactive agency detection works according to
experimental psychologist Justin Barrett: According to Justin L. Barrett: “Part of the reason
people believe in gods, ghosts and, goblins also comes from the way in which our minds,
particularly our agency detection device (ADD) functions. Our ADD suffers from some
hyperactivity, making it prone to find agents around us, including supernatural ones, given
fairly modest evidence of their presence. This tendency encourages the generation and spread
of god concepts” (Barrett 2004: 31). This is what he terms the Hyperactive Agency Detection
Device or HADD (32). Examples of when the HADD is active include: Hearing a bump in
the night (31), perception of geometric objects moving by themselves (32), perception of a
wispy form (33), a computer malfunctioning (33), perception of crop circles (37). To this we
might add all representations of “gods, ghosts and goblins”. I do want to add that Barrett does
not say that the HADD is the whole story, he actually has several chapters explaining other
important factors, but he does say that it is the central function.
According to cognitive anthropologist Scott Atran and social psychologist Ara
Norenzayan: “Widespread counterfactual and counterintuitive beliefs in supernatural agents
can be explained by the fact that they “(..) trigger our naturally selected agency-detection
system, which is trip-wired to respond to fragmentary information, inciting perception of
figures lurking in shadows and emotions of dread and awe” (Atran & Norenzayan 2004:
714). While they call it the agency-detection system, it is the same basic explanation as
Barrett gives for the HADD. Examples of when this system is active are: Dots moving on a
screen, voices in the wind, faces in the clouds, any complex design, the image of Mother
Theresa in a cinnamon bun, the virgin of Guadeloupe in a melted ice cream on the pavement,
the Virgin in windows, curtains and television afterimages, the face of the Evil-One in the
smoke of the World Trade Center (Atran & Norenzayan 2004: 719), sudden movement of an
object stirred by the wind, representing ghosts or gods (720). 56

Since belief in superhuman agents by these accounts qualify as uniquely human, all three
points mentioned above must apply to the HADD. Religion is considered a by-product of
human cognitive functions. According to Barrett and Atran and Norenzayan the proper

56
Atran and Norenzayan do have some other nuances than Barrett does and their explanation also
incorporates emotions, but these are not relevant for the present purposes.

83
function 57 of the HADD was to detect and evade predators, the by-product is a susceptibility
to infer superhuman beings. Let me highlight four representative examples of situations in
which the HADD is stipulated to be activated as a sort of benchmark 58 :

B1 the sudden movement of a twig in the forest leads to the inference of 

ghosts, which can be seen in subsequent caution, sacrifice or stories relating 

the event.  

B2 the perception of crop‐circles leads to the inference of aliens, which can be 

seen in stories about the aliens communicating their far advanced 

technologies to us.  

B3 prayer activating the inference of a god listening, which can be seen from 

the communicative behavior in a context where there is no one to 

communicate with.  

B4 Reading the book of Genesis in the Bible, which leads to talk about the 

design of nature. 

These four examples are, or lead to, behaviors involving superhuman agents. We have four
distinct behaviors B1-B4, which are the explananda. Either the HADD is activated in B1-4 or
it is not the most parsimonious explanation. Now let me jump to the first point, the neural
structure. We should expect to find a neural structure which reliably produces hyperactive
agency detection, and, which is specific to humans.

57
I am using the notion of proper function in the sense given by the American philosopher Ruth Garrett
Millikan (Millikan 1984: 28-33). Millikan has a longer philosophical justification for the term, but to put it
plainly the proper function is the function of a device when it works, that is, when it is not a false positive.
58
I will term them B1-B4 because the empirical measure is some sort of behavior. In some of the examples
the behavior is a product of something perceptual (B1, B2 and B4) while B3 does not include anything
perceptual. B1 includes movement while this is not the case in the others. These examples have been chosen
to indicate the breadth of the claims about the conditions under which the HADD is activated.

84
 The classic example of hyperactive agency detection, mentioned by Barrett and Atran and
Norenzayan, is the Belgian psychologist Albert Baron Edouard Michotte van den Berck’s,
more commonly known as Albert Michotte, experiments from the 30s and 40s (cf. Michotte
1963). Michotte had subjects watch a screen on which dots were moving. When they were
moving freely, apparently self-propelled, and reacted to other dots, subjects were inclined to
infer mental states to the dots such as chasing, helping etc. This obviously suggests some sort
of hyperactive agency detection. A good portion of neurological research has been dedicated
to this function (Blakemore et al. 2003; Blakemore & Decety 2001; Decety & Grezes 1999;
Frith & Frith 2001; Grezes et al. 2001). It is usually referred to as detection of biological
movement, and the neural structure responsible for this is the superior temporal sulcus, or
STS. While most studies have focused on its activation by visual stimuli, a recent fMRI study
has showed that part of the STS is also activated by auditory stimuli (Bidet-Caulet, Voisin,
Bertrand, & Fonlupt 2005a). There are lateral specializations in the STS (Blakemore et al.
2003b), and also some substructures sub-serving specific sub-functions (Bidet-Caulet,
Voisin, Bertrand, & Fonlupt 2005b; Goodale & Milner 1992; Grezes et al. 2001). Indeed this
neural structure would account for B1, where something is moving, but not B2-4, where
nothing is moving. Thus it cannot be the S explaining the existence of the HADD. There is
also another problem, namely, that it is not unique to humans.
Another possibility is that the so called mirror neuron circuit is responsible for the
hyperactive agency detection. Mirror neurons are a type of neuron found in the ventral pre-
motor cortex in macaque monkeys (Gallese et al. 1996). They have the special property that
they are activated both by the perception of a movement and the execution of a movement.
This has been seen as the basis of mentalizing or empathy (Gallese 2001). 59 Comparable
findings have been reported in homologous areas in humans. These areas were found to be
active during perception of a movement, execution of the movement, but also in the
imagination of the movement (Jeannerod 1999). Thus mirror neurons could enable us to
simulate a non-present agent. This would account for B3- 4, where some sort of simulation of
an agent takes place, but it wouldn’t explain B1. Mirror neurons are not either very
hyperactive, and they seem to function at a very low and boring level of mere movements.
Another problem is, as mentioned, they are found also in monkeys, even macaques.
Consequently the mirror neuron circuit cannot be the S of the HADD

59
For recent criticism of this see (Jacob & Jeannerod 2005)

85
 We could then stipulate that the superior temporal sulcus (STS) and ventral pre-motor
cortex (PMv) together formed a distributed neurological instantiation of the HADD. There
are two objections to this. First, the mirror neuron circuit is not hyperactive at all; at least not
in the sense stipulated by Barrett. 60 It is also a pretty pedestrian movement centered system
that does not care much about the mental states or long term goals of the perceived agent.
Second, this system is not in any obvious way unique to humans.
In conclusion we can say that we have not been able to find an S which reliably produces
hyperactive agency detection leading to behaviors B1-4. While there is ample evidence of
hyperactive agency detection, the HADD is not the most parsimonious explanation of why
the belief in superhuman agents and their associated behaviors is widespread among humans.

A possible way out of the problem would be to focus more clearly on the central function
before we eagerly make up some evolutionary scenario. What we really want to know is why
humans have a tendency to interact with physical entities as if they were intentional or related
to a hidden intentionality. This central function I believe is most precisely put by Daniel
Dennett, who calls this “taking the intentional stance”: “first you decide to treat the object
whose behaviors is to be predicted as a rational agent; then you figure out what beliefs the
agent ought to have, given its place in the world and its purpose. Then you figure out what
desires it ought to have on the same considerations and finally you predict this rational agent
would act to further its goals in the light of its beliefs” (Dennett 1987: 17). 61 This indeed
seems to be a hyperactive function, that is, a function with many false positives, as Dennett
already pointed out in the seventies. 62 We should then instead talk of a hyperactive
intentionality detection device or a HIDD. Let us see if this move will fare better than the
HADD.
In a series of fMRI studies neuropsychologists Helen L. Gallagher, Christopher D. Frith,
Uta Frith and colleagues have tried to find out what happens neurologically, when people
take the intentional stance (Gallagher et al. 2000; Gallagher et al. 2002). Previous studies
have shown a discrete system involved in theory of mind (ToM) tasks, but all of them were

60
Although some sort of hyperactivity has been detected: activity in left PMv was detected in subjects
viewing tools, and implied movement (Chao & Martin 2000), but these are more commonly interpreted as
being simulations of the affordances of the object at hand. Further, strictly speaking these are not mirror
neurons, but so called, "canonical neurons". This would not explain B2 and B3
61
I think a more contemporary reading of the quote would substitute rational with intentional.
62
The article in which Dennett presented the idea of the intentional stance, “True Believers: The intentional
Strategy and Why it Works” republished in The Intentional Stance, was from 1979 (Dennett 1987: 13)

86
off-line, that is, reflective tasks like narrative comprehension. To isolate the intentional
stance in on-line processing, they asked subjects to play a computerized version of the game
stone, paper, scissors. One group was told that they were playing against an experimenter,
another that they were playing against a computer using a predetermined rule-based strategy,
while a third was told they were playing against a random sequence. The first group was thus
prompted to take the intentional stance toward the game, reflecting quite accurately what
takes place in most religion. What the participants didn’t know was that all three groups were
in fact playing against a random sequence. Therefore the only real difference between the
groups was the stance taken by participants towards the task. The results showed increased
activation in just one area, which had also been activated in all other mentalizing studies: the
anterior paracingulate gyrus (PCC) (Gallagher et al. 2002).
Now let us consider whether the stipulated neural structure could cause all instances of the
behaviors we wished to explain:

B1 the sudden movement of a twig in the forest leads to the inference of 

ghosts, which can be seen in subsequent caution, sacrifice or stories relating 

the event.  

This would amount to biological movement, since this is characterized by being movement
by and of itself. Castelli and colleagues used animations of two characters, a blue triangle and
a red triangle, to investigate the neural activation in ToM tasks (Castelli et al. 2000). In some
animations the triangles were interacting intentionally like dancing together, chasing each
other or imitating each other, while in others they were bouncing off the walls like billiard
balls (Castelli et al. 2000: 316). The study showed strong activation, among other places, in
the PCC (Castelli et al. 2000: 319). 63

B2 the perception of crop‐circles leads to the inference of aliens, which can be 

seen in stories about the aliens communicating their far advanced 

technologies to us.  

63
The study mentions the medial prefrontal cortex, but the PCC is a sub-part of that area.

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 Crop circles are traces of agency, or have evidence of design, as Barrett calls it. That is they
seem non-random. One study by Gallagher and colleagues might show something similar
(Gallagher et al. 2000). They used cartoons without any text. This is perceptually similar in
that you have straight lines in a non-random order. They showed that these cartoons activated
the PCC, but other cartoons did not (Gallagher et al. 2000: 19). This indicates that we
probably have another variable here, which needs further investigation.
 

B3 prayer activating the inference of a god listening, which can be seen from 

the communicative behavior in a context where there is no one to 

communicate with.  

 
Prayer is the same as interacting with non-present agents. This was shown in the already
mentioned study of Gallagher and colleagues, where a game of rock, paper scissors was
played with a non-present agent. Something similar was also shown by a study of McCabe
and colleagues, where subjects were told they were playing a game against another person
(McCabe et al. 2001). This study also showed increased activity in activation of the PCC. 64
 

B4 Reading the book of Genesis in the Bible, which leads to talk about the 

design of nature. 

Reading the Bible like any other book is a matter of story comprehension. A couple of
studies have shown that the PCC is activated in such tasks (Fletcher et al. 1995; Gallagher et
al. 2000). There might of course be differences in neural activation in reading the bible, but
what concerns us here is that reading will activate the PCC.
In conclusion we can say that the stipulated neural structure responsible for our cognitive
function, the HIDD, is indeed activated in the different behaviors we wished to explain. The
key here is that there are different ways of activating this function. Earlier it has been
assumed more or less tacitly that agency detection was stimuli driven, but the above
mentioned studies indicate that it can just as well be context driven.

64
Also here the designation is medial prefrontal cortex (cf. previous note)

88
 But how far is this uniquely human? The anterior cingulate cortex, of which the PCC is
considered to be part, is an ancient structure belonging to the limbic lobe. This would
immediately indicate that the neural area is not even specific to primates, but an unusual type
of projection neuron (spindle cell) is found here. It is found only in higher primates, not in
monkeys. There is evidence that in humans this structure has undergone further evolution
from the primates (Gallagher & Frith 2003: 80). This is consistent with a uniquely human
structure. Second, this type of neuron is not present at birth in human children. It doesn’t
appear until around 4 months of age, which would give some clues to the delayed
development of mentalizing capabilities in infants (cf. Meltzoff & Prinz 2003).

The proposed HIDD, or just taking the intentional stance, fits all the criteria stipulated in
the beginning: it has a well defined neural structure (PCC), which reliably produces the
cognitive function (intentionality detection); it is uniquely human, which can be seen
neurologically from recent mutation after the phylogenetic departure from the great apes; all
instances of the behaviors B1-4 was found to be consistent with activation of the neural
structure. The widespread belief in and interaction with counterintuitive agents is thus more
parsimoniously explained by a HIDD than a HADD.
This, however, is not the end point of the investigation. It is merely the starting point. The
next problem is the conditions of activation of the HIDD in all the different contexts in
religion. As we saw there are many different ways of activating the HIDD. What is crucial
for the present purposes is that in divination the activation is done with the aid of ritualized
action. This turns the perceptual patterns produced by the divination ritual into intentional, or
more precisely, communicative signs to which the interpreter takes the intentional stance. Let
us now consider the next step: how these intentional signs become communicative and how
they are interpreted.

Communicative basis
Previous treatments of divination have not been blind to the communicative basis of
divination. There have been two general trends. One trend has followed a basically systemic
understanding of the sign interpretation in divination, where great care has been put in
understanding the symbolic properties different divination systems (Adler & Zempléni 1972;
Turner 1961; Vernant 1974). They have typically been treatments of divination systems with

89
a rich symbolism and multiple meanings. Another trend has focused on the concrete
interpretation in a situational context (Mendonsa 1982; Park 1963; Shaw 1985). These
studies have been more interested in social processes than the symbolic aspects of divination.
These two different approaches parallel two distinct ways of conceptualizing communication
in western thought, which Dan Sperber and Deirdre Wilson have called the “code model” and
the “inference model” respectively. I will here follow their exposition of these two as I
believe they apply well to the approaches in previous divination research and also because I
will use Dan Sperber and Deirdre Wilson’s Relevance Theory as my basis. 65
Already in his little book Le symbolisme en general from 1974 66 anthropologist Dan
Sperber criticized an understanding of communication, which had been prevalent for more
than 2000 years: that language was best seen as a code. According to this view a message is
encrypted in linguistic symbols by the sender and then subsequently decrypted by the
receiver (Sperber 1975: 14). This basic communication model he found among those he
termed symbolists, who were those practicing symbolic anthropology, structuralism and
Freudian psychology. According to Sperber the relation between sign and meaning is not
constant as assumed by the code model of communication (Sperber 1975: 85). He pointed out
that it was difficult to account for idiosyncratic interpretations on that model. Another
problem is how anybody could ever learn the language since it seems to be necessary to
know the code in advance in order to learn it. This criticism is followed up in Relevance:
Communication and Cognition coauthored by linguist Deirdre Wilson from 1986 (Sperber &
Wilson 1986).
The other extreme is identified as the inference model. Whereas the code model relies on
an idealized sentence, the inference model is more realistic since it is designed to understand
concrete utterances. A sentence can have a common semantic core regardless of where it is
uttered. It will nevertheless mean something different according to the context in which it is
uttered. This meaning has to be inferred. There is a common core to the sentence “I will
come tomorrow” meaning a person coming at a certain day, but the actual meaning is

65
The reason I have chosen relevance theory is not that it has solved all problems regarding communication.
Indeed there are several valid criticisms that can be raised against the original formulation (Levinson 1989),
but five aspects are in its favor: first, during the 20 years since its original formulation it has produced a solid
body of experimental evidence in its favor. Second, it connects very well with other cognitive theories such as
for example work on theory of mind (Tomasello 1999). Third, it is already the basic communication model
used in the cognitive science of religion (Boyer 2001). Fourth, it is not tied to only linguistic communication.
Fifth, the basic idea of relevance has already been applied in divination research (Abbink 1993; Zeitlyn 1990).
66
The English translation Rethinking Symbolism (Sperber 1975) is used here.

90
dependent on who utters the sentence and when. The meaning is thus filled by inference from
the context (speaker and time) (Sperber & Wilson 1986: 10). While this model is good at
accounting for the local situational meanings of communication, it has problems accounting
for the semantic stability of sentences. Therefore Sperber and Wilson conclude that it is not
sufficient either.
Sperber and Wilson programmatically claim: “We will try to show that this line of
reasoning is invalid. It is true that a language is a code which pairs phonetic and semantic
sentences. However, there is a gap between the semantic representations of sentences and the
thoughts actually communicated by utterances. The gap is filled, not by more coding, but by
inference” (Sperber & Wilson 1986: 16). Relevance theory is therefore an alternative to these
two models and appears to be a more psychologically plausible synthesis. Instead of simple
coding or simple inference, Sperber and Wilson stipulate that a linguistic coding consistent
with a number of different interpretations takes place. The proper interpretation is then found
with the aid of inference (Sperber & Wilson 1986: 27; Wilson 1999: 719). The theory is
limited to what Sperber and Wilson calls “ostensive communication” (158) or “ostensive
inferential communication” (50-54). 67 The means for this form of communication is most
often, but most importantly not always, language. The ostensive communicative act can be
done by any perceptual means: pointing, smiling, arranging the flowers or whistling. As a
general term for the means for communication they use the psychological term stimulus. This
is understood as “(..)any modification of the physical environment designed to be perceived”
(Sperber & Wilson 1986: 29). While this description focuses on the part of the sign producer
or the communicator, the interpreter can only identify a communicative stimulus by taking
the intentional stance toward this modification of the environment.
Ostensive inferential communication arises from two basic assumptions: first, that the
communicator has an informative intention: “To make manifest or more manifest to the
audience a set of assumptions” (Sperber & Wilson 1986: 58). Second, that the communicator
has a communicative intention: “To make it mutually manifest to audience and
communicator that the communicator has this informative intention” (61). By assumptions is
meant: “(..) thoughts treated by the individual as representations of the actual world”(2) and
by manifest: “A fact is manifest at a given time if and only if he is capable of representing it

67
They do see exceptions to ostensive inferential communication. One such is morseing (Sperber & Wilson
1986: 158). This is a bit strange since morseing is just a recoding of other linguistic signs (letters) and it still
needs to be interpreted.

91
mentally and accepting it as true or probably true”(39). The identification of a
communicative intention picks out a sign as specifically communicative. According to
cognitive psychologist Michael Tomasello, this function is at the basis of language and it is
carried out by the cognitive ability of humans to have joint-attention to something
(Tomasello 1999: 96).
Let us consider an example. Peter sees a balloon up in the air. Peter turns towards Michael
and utters “there is a balloon up in the air”. The informative intention is to make it manifest
to Michael that there is a balloon in the air, and the communicative intention is seen in Peter
turning towards Michael and uttering the sentence. Detecting the communicative intention
seems equivalent to taking the intentional stance and identifying the intention as
communicative. The next step is to interpret the informative intention. It could be said that
the communicative intention expresses that something is communicated and that the
informative intention expresses what is communicated.
According to Sperber and Wilson an act of communication always carries with it the
presumption of optimal relevance: “(a) The set of assumptions (I) which the communicator
intends to make manifest to the addressee is relevant enough to make it worth the addressee’s
while to process the ostensive stimulus. (b) The ostensive stimulus is the most relevant one
the communicator could have used to communicate (I) (..) Every act of ostensive
communication communicates the presumption of its own optimal relevance” (Sperber &
Wilson 1986: 158). This means that the recognition of a communicative intention
automatically activates the assumption that the communicative stimuli are the most relevant
in expressing what it is the communicator wants to express. In the example with Peter and
Michael from before, Michael recognizes a communicative intention and interprets the
sentence according to the words. These words are the most relevant to express that there
actually is balloon up in the air, not that it will rain or that TV is bad for your eyes. These
thoughts may have been what Peter actually wanted to express, but because of the relevance
principle it did not go through. There are other ways Peter could have communicated the
same, for example by tapping Michael on the shoulder and pointing at the balloon. Or he
could just have blinked his eye if they had on beforehand agreed that an eye blink should
serve as a signal that a balloon was in the sky. One stimulus can thus have several different
meanings and several different stimuli can have the same meaning.

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 Relevance Theory is a cognitive communication theory, which seeks to integrate insights
from previous theories and it has held up relatively robustly in the 20 years since its original
formulation. Since the basis of Relevance Theory is to read other peoples intentions, this
connects very well with the large and expanding field of research in cognitive science on the
topic of Theory of Mind. 68 The most important insight offered by relevance theory is that
humans communicate by producing signs which have the goal of making thoughts known to
the interpreter. These signs are recognized as communicative by the interpreter and
interpreted according to the relevance principle, thereby extracting the information initially
intended by the communicator.
In divination, then, the HIDD is activated by the ritualized action. This indicates an
intention behind the signs. Because of the question initially formulated, the interpreter will
further identify these signs as having a communicative intention. The informative intention is
found by the principle of relevance with the aid of the different possible meanings of the
signs produced and the context determined by the motivation of the questioner.

Restricted symbol system

Although the basic principles of communication are used in divination there are also
important differences. A divinatory sign system differs from a linguistic sign-system in
several different ways. A normal English speaker knows between 30000 and 60000 different
words. In comparison the richest divination system, the West African Ifa 69 , operates with 256
different signs (Bascom 1969) and the simplest operate with two different signs such as for
example the poison oracle among the Azande (Evans-Pritchard 1937). It is obvious that the
system is much more restricted with regard to the number of signs than normal language.

68
Theory of Mind is also known as mentalizing or empathy and covers the branch of cognitive science that
tries to understand how we understand other minds. The concept of Theory of Mind can be traced to an article
on Chimpanzees from 1978 by psychologist David Premack and primatologist Guy Woodruff (Premack &
Woodruff 1978). This was turned into a problem of human psychology by the philosopher Daniel Dennett in
the commentary to the article. Here he suggested, what would later become known as, the false belief test
(although he called it mistaken belief) (Dennett 1978: 569). This test illuminated the principle of people
having beliefs about other people’s beliefs and has had central significance for the development of the Theory
of Mind research in developmental psychology, meta-cognition and autism (Baron-Cohen 1995; Gopnik &
Astington 1988; Leslie 1994; Premack 1990; Tomasello et al. 2005). In recent years the field has seen an
explosive expansion.
69
It should be mentioned that the so called rhapsodomantic practices where a section of text is the sign, seem
to be exceptions (Petersen 2007). The same can be said of ecstatic or oracular divination forms. These forms
simply use language as their sign system.

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 This connects well with another aspect that differs from normal communication. The
relation between a sign and its meaning is less firm; it is less “coded” than words typically
are. More meanings are attached to the individual symbols. This implies that a lot extra
“inference” will have to take place on the part of the interpreter. An example of the
multiplicity of meanings can be seen from Victor Turners fieldwork among the Ndembu. In
Ndembu basket divination a number of symbolic objects are contained in a basket and from
their configuration the information sought can be interpreted. Turner asked his informants
about what the individual symbols meant. For the symbol yipwepu, which is physically
pieces of a calabash, his informant Muchona explained that it could mean: Water, marriage,
any part of a calabash, cup, matrilineage, the things a woman brings into a marriage, beer,
cassava mush with bad medicine, grudge, a journey, collection of goods, a man’s possession,
a person who has left because of a quarrel, horns with medicines, and an assemblage (Turner
1961: 58f). 70 This under-specification of the relation between sign and referent also makes
the actual interpretation less fixed and more open for later reinterpretation. This is, however,
not generally the case for the binary techniques that merely denote a yes or a no.
Nevertheless, even these cases require further inferences that alter the meaning of the original
sign (Garfinkel 1967; Zeitlyn 1990). Summing up, we can say that divination systems differ
from linguistic systems in that they are more “under-coded” and the relations between signs
and meaning are looser. This necessitates extra inference and more possible meanings. 71

Utility
Compared to normal communication, the utility of the information produced in divination
practices is usually also restricted in different ways. In practice a given divination practice
will usually be restricted by the form of the response and by the subjects it can answer. The
form of the answers can be either binary, discrete or rich. A binary response is an either/or
answer. The discrete form works by selecting one possibility from a finite number of given
possibilities and the rich form is a more elaborate form that allows for many details in the
interpretation. Some divination practices are very specialized and can answer questions about
a very restricted range of subjects. I will call them restrained forms. Others are more open

70
It should be stressed that taken out of context these meanings seem unnecessarily arcane. The explanations
offered by Muchona for all these meanings show clear signs of a lot of “inference” which makes them
understandable.
71
Other differences could be added: whereas language has grammar, the “grammar” of divination is much
more restricted. The basic conclusion is the same, that extra inference is necessary.

94
and all purpose. These characteristics determine the utility of the divination practice. We can
sketch the different possibilities in a two by three matrix (table 4.7.)
Form Binary Discrete Rich
Subject
Restrained Mapingo Straws Astrology
Open Poison oracle Ifa Palmistry

Table 4.7 Utility characteristics of divination practices

Let us consider some examples of the different combinations. An example of a restrained

binary form is the mapingo oracle among the Azande. It is a technique involving
manipulation of three pieces of wood. Depending on whether they stand or fall they will give
a yes or no answer. Adult males only use it in choosing a site for a homestead (Evans-
Pritchard 1937: 358). Consequently the subject is restrained and the form of the answer is
binary. Among the Azande they have several other binary forms of divination. The most
important is the poison oracle. Contrary to the mapingo oracle the range of subjects that can
be posed to it is open (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 261f). These two types of divination have very
different utility because one is open and the other restrained. An intermediary form is the
discrete form. An everyday example is drawing straws. It is usually used to determine who
should do something. A number of straws equal to the number persons in the draw are
arranged in the hand. They are of different lengths, but the lengths are hidden. Whoever
draws the shortest straw is selected. This is an example of a restrained discrete practice. An
open discrete practice is the Ifa oracle. Here one of five different alternatives are chosen to
determine which type of fortune or misfortune will come, but it is a matter of further
interpretation to find the specifics (Bascom 1969: 54-57). Another example of an open
discrete practice is tarot cards. Modern astrology is restricted in the subject, since it can only
give information about the questioner’s life, but the form is rich since the amount of detail is
potentially infinite (Munk 2007). An example of an open and rich form of divination is
Japanese palmistry. In modern day Japan palmistry is the most popular form of divination,
since it provides a rich basis for interpretation and the opportunity to pose any question
(Suzuki 1995: 264).

The utility characteristics of a divination practice are important in order to understand the
success or failure of it in a given society. How often it is useful in a given population will

95
determine the growth potential. If a given practice is hopelessly restrained in the subjects that
can be addressed it probably will not be very widespread. On the other hand if exactly this
specific subject is very important or arises very frequently it may become very widespread. A
given practice may also produce information in a specific form, such as binary, but the need
may arise frequently for more detailed information. In this case a divination practice with a
rich form will have an advantage. There are many possibilities and it is not possible in
advance to say which utility characteristics are good, since the demand may differ widely
across societies.

Credibility
A central question of much divination research has been why people believe in it. Now we
are in a position to begin unlocking the riddle. In the beginning of chapter 3 we established
that divination was a way of acquiring information by proxy. A large amount of human
knowledge is acquired in this way through communication from other persons. We should
therefore look at the psychological mechanisms for evaluating the credibility of information
received from other persons. How do we assess information such as “the Earth’s climate is
endangered by human influences”? Common sense tells us that we would assess the
credibility of this sentence differently depending on whether we were told this by a cleaning
lady or by a university professor. But why exactly and what is the difference? In a recent
review of the evaluation of testimony from others, psychologists Bergstrom, Moehlmann and
Boyer conclude that “Surprisingly, there is no tradition of empirical cognitive research into
the process whereby the identity of a speaker results in an evaluation of reliability”
(Bergstrom, Moehlmann, & Boyer 2006: 536). While that is correct it is still possible to learn
something from various sources of previous research.
If we start from the everyday example above; what makes a university professor more
credible than a cleaning lady? A working hypothesis could be that it is the prestige of the
professor that gives him more credibility. This is the suggestion of evolutionary
anthropologists Joseph Henrich and Francisco Gil-White. They suggest that prestige in
general is an important bias in cultural transmission. Prestige is understood as standing or
estimation in the eyes of people (Henrich & Gil-White 2001: 167). It is important to
distinguish prestige from dominance. They explain “(..) prestige processes as an emergent
product of psychological adaptations that evolved to improve the quality of information

96
acquired via cultural transmission. Natural selection favored social learners who could
evaluate potential models and copy the most successful among them” (Henrich & Gil-White
2001: 165). Prestige is seen as a cue to success. It is stipulated that a psychological
mechanism exists for copying models from prestigious individuals. Models can be anything
from preferences to behavioral patterns. In this case the model is information. Information
stemming from a prestigious individual is therefore more credible.
Henrich and Gil-White supply precise empirical criteria to distinguish prestigious
individuals: Prestigious individuals can be distinguished by certain cues such as 1) the
amount of freely conferred benefits and displays an individual receives, 2) by observing
wealth, such as hunting returns, 3) the state of health and lack of disfiguring and 4) the age
and sex, that is, old and male (Henrich & Gil-White 2001: 175f). There are different ways of
measuring credibility, but in general something that influences behavior may be a solid
indicator. I have chosen to focus on credibility value as a measurement of a piece of
information’s credibility. Credibility value falls on a continuum and is used to designate the
value or resources a person would risk on the information being not true. It is ofcourse
important that a person says he believes something, but he might be lying or affirming an
identity as a believer or something else than actually really believing. What seems more
precise as a measure of depth of belief is what that person is willing to risk on that belief
being true. The more he is willing to risk the higher the credibility value of the information. 72
If a person says he believes in the horoscope in the paper it is relatively difficult to make
anything of that belief and how deep it is held. If for example the horoscope warns him to
stay indoor today and he knows that it would get him fired if he didn’t show up for work, we
would have a situation were we could evaluate the credibility value the person attaches to the
horoscope. If it is low he will go to work anyway and if it is high he will stay indoors and risk
getting fired. What is important, is what the person risks by acting in accordance with the
information.
We can now state the hypothesis that the credibility of information known through another
person will depend on that person’s prestige. A number of different studies allow us to
investigate this. 73 The biggest group of studies involves opinion or attitude change. They do

72
There may be some connection with costly signaling theory, but space unfortunately does not permit us to
follow this idea. See however (Bulbulia 2004).
73
All of these studies were carried out in the 60s and 70s and were designed to test other theories such as
cognitive dissonance.

97
not approach credibility directly, but it is here assumed that opinion change depends on the
new opinion being based on more credible information. Opinions should change more easily
from credible than from non-credible information. In these studies the changes of opinion are
measured depending on whether the information given is represented as coming from a
prestigious source or from a non-prestigious.
Psychologist Richard M. Ryckman and colleagues made a study of opinions about student
activism (Ryckman, Sherman, & Rodda 1972). They wanted to study the amount of influence
on opinion change produced by a high prestige source either with relevant or irrelevant
expertise. In the beginning the participants’ opinion of student activism was measured. They
were then introduced to a faculty member who was introduced either as having irrelevant
expertise (about the Chinese Ming Dynasty) or as having relevant expertise 74 (about Student
Activism). A number of questions were read aloud and the faculty member should answer to
the question first. This answer was visible to the participant who was subsequently asked to
answer as well. The result was that participants exposed to the high prestige source changed
their opinion significantly more than a control group not exposed to any high prestige source.
More importantly, the participants seemed to be influenced by prestige even when the source
did not have relevant expertise (Ryckman, Sherman, & Rodda 1972: 111). It seems that a
high prestige person in himself influences credibility regardless of whether the person has
any expertise on the subject.
A similar study focused in more detail on the difference expertise had for evaluation of
information. It was carried out by psychologists Ramon J. Rhine and Robert M. Kaplan. They
investigated participants’ opinion about the amount of sleep humans needed. They introduced
different levels of discrepancy between the participant’s attitude and that communicated to
them. The information about the amount of sleep needed was framed as coming from either a
high prestige but no expertise source (a professor of law), a high prestige with expertise
source (a professor of biology) and a low prestige no expertise source (a private from the US
Army). The results showed that the biology professor and the private could better get away
with very discrepant utterances (such as only 0 hours of sleep was needed) than could the law
professor, without reflecting badly upon ratings of their personality and intelligence. The
reason is probably that the biology professor was protected by his expertise, while nothing
was expected of the private anyway because of his low prestige. But because of his high

74
Expertise is here and in the following used to designate knowledge of a specific area.

98
prestige it was expected that the law professor would not make such incredulous claims
(Rhine & Kaplan 1972: 264). There seems, therefore, to be some distinction in high prestige
sources on the basis of relevant expertise. Relevant expertise seems to heighten credibility.
This aspect is more thoroughly investigated in a study by social psychologist Elliot
Aronson and colleagues (Aronson, Turner, & Carlsmith 1963). They used opinions about
poetry. First the participants read a number of stanzas and were asked to rate them. Then a
supposed essay on poetry was read. It was introduced as authored by either a highly credible
communicator (T.S. Elliot) or a mildly credible communicator (a student of English literature
at a High School teachers’ College). These sources are equal to a high prestige/expertise and
low prestige/expertise communicator. They found that communications by mildly credible
communicators can influence opinion change up to a certain degree of discrepancy between
personal views and those expressed by the author essay. If the discrepancy between the
participant and the low prestige/expertise source becomes too high it ceases to produce
opinion change (Aronson, Turner, & Carlsmith 1963: 34). This was not the case for the high
prestige/expertise source. The prestige of the source thus has a limit to its credibility
depending on how discrepant from the expectations it is. Further it can be seen that expertise
is not as strong a factor in assessing credibility as is prestige since both sources had expertise.
All the previous studies mentioned have been carried out with American students, but
cross-cultural evidence also exists. Psychologist Elliot McGinnies & Charles D. Ward gave
participants in 5 different countries (USA, Sweden, Australia, New Zealand and Japan) an
essay arguing for the expansion of borders into the sea. One group was told the author was an
expert on international law with a doctoral degree. A second group was told that he was a
journalist at a neo-Nazi newspaper with no specific knowledge of maritime law. A third
group was not given any description of the author. They were then asked to rate their attitude
toward expanding the borders into the sea. The results were a significantly higher rating for
the doctor group compared with the journalist group for all countries (McGinnies & Ward
1974: 366). There was however no significant difference between the control and the doctor
group (369). This could indicate that the subjects either assumed that the essay was written
by a knowledgeable source as in the first group, or that information without any
representation of its source is seen as true by default. The last point has also been suggested
by others (cf. Bergstrom, Moehlmann, & Boyer 2006: 532). That would indicate that
credibility is automatically assumed. This cannot, however, be the case in all instances since

99
the study by Rhine and Kaplan above used a control group who were not told about the
author. Here there was a distinction between no source and a high prestige source.
Since all the previous studies do not address the effect of prestige on credibility directly, I
did a study to ascertain whether differences in prestige resulted in differences in credibility.
As part of a questionnaire 90 Danish high school students, 40 Male, 50 female, 16-21 (M
=18,24, SD 1,34) 75 were asked to rate how likely the predictions of 20 different categories of
persons 76 were to come true. 77 The most credible was the doctor followed by the professor.
The least credible was the 6th grader followed by the cleaning lady. We may recall that one of
the empirical characteristics of prestige was age and sex, where low age and female gender
were associated with low prestige. This fits with the two lowest scoring categories in this
study. High age and male gender belonged to high prestige. While this is not guarantied for
doctors and professors, most doctors and professors are male and comparatively old. They
are also comparatively wealthy (I don’t know about hunting returns though). Further, the
professor was frequently used as the high prestige source in the other studies. It is therefore
possible to say that the professor and doctor are typical high prestige persons and that the 6th
grader and Cleaning Lady are typical low prestige persons.

6th Grader Cleaning Lady Professor Doctor

t t** t** Cohen’s d t** Cohen’s d
6th Grader 2,594 7,925* 1,06 8,805 * 1,95
Cleaning Lady 7,483* 0,58 7,903* 1,27
Professor 2,194
Doctor

Table 4.8 Difference in average rating of credibility between high prestige and low
prestige persons 78

75
This was part of the second part of the booklet handed out in Experiment 1 and 2 in above. The method and
procedure is described there. It thus followed a task on the credibility of divination, so it could be said that the
participants were primed to think in terms of credibility.
76
The question was: “Følgende personer siger, at de kan forudse fremtiden. Hvor sandsynligt finder du det, at
deres forudsigelser vil ske?” (The following persons claim to be able to predict the future. How likely do you
find it that their predictions will come true?). The categories were: Numerologist, 6th grader, Chiropractor,
Politician. Tarot Card Reader, High School Teacher, Priest, News Reader, Palmist, Doctor, Astrologist,
Ophthalmologist, Cleaning Lady, Professor, Shaman, CEO, Clairvoyant, Parents, Spiritist, and Engineer.
77
15 responses were excluded from the study since the respondents had either circled the same answer for
every person, or had failed to supply answers to one or more persons.
78
*significant at the 1% level in a paired samples t-test, **df=74. Effect size is only calculated for significant
results.

100
 It can be seen from table 4.8. that high prestige persons are rated as significantly more
credible than low prestige persons. The differences between low and high prestige are in all
cases significant at the 1% level and effect size is large in general. It could be argued that for
the doctor the participants implicitly rated the doctor’s ability to predict the outcome of a
disease, which they often successfully do. This would indicate that prestige was confounded.
It is not impossible to rule out, but other items in the questionnaire seemed to indicate that
doctors were also more credible in other contexts. Second, this would merely amount to a
doctor being a high-prestige/expertise person known from the previous studies. Third, the
professors are not routinely attributed skills at predicting anything and they still had a
significantly larger credibility. The study thus confirms the previous studies in the
assumption that information obtained through high prestige sources is assessed as more
credible than information obtained through low prestige persons.

It seems possible to conclude from these five studies that prestige is an important indicator
in assessing credibility of information known by proxy: the credibility of high prestige>low
prestige and the credibility of expertise > no expertise. It also suggests that prestige is more
important than expertise in assessing credibility. Table 4.9. provides an overview of the
studies reviewed here. This is naturally a preliminary result which awaits further research to
clarify many issues.

Low prestige High prestige

No expertise Expertise No expertise Expertise
Ryckman et al. X X
Rhine et al. X X X
Aronson et al. X X
McGinnies et al. X X
Lisdorf X X (X)

Table 4.9. Overview of studies on prestige and credibility

A few other studies add further to the picture of how prestige influences credibility. A
study of Danny L. Moore and colleagues show that increasing the cognitive burden increases
the effect of source credibility (Moore, Hausknecht, & Thamodaran 1986: 98). They tested a
number of different factors and found that source credibility was the most important factor in
determining credibility of a commercial; even more than argument strength. A last factor that

101
deserves mention is past experiences with the person. Even children from 4 years track
relatively accurately persons past performance and base judgments of their credibility on
whether they have been credible in the past (Koenig, Clement, & Harris 2004).

Now that we have established that prestige is an important indicator in assessing the truth
of information based on the communicator, we need to make one further distinction. Since all
the above examples were about information from the person himself, we need to ask what if
the information is presented as stemming ultimately from someone else. If Louise says: “I
heard from my professor that…” would it then make a difference to her credibility? We need
to distinguish between the direct prestige from the proximate communicator (Louise) and the
indirect prestige of the ultimate communicator (her professor). I have not been able to find
research addressing this question. I therefore designed a study to determine whether such an
indirect prestige effect would matter in divination, where the ultimate communicator is a
counterintuitive agent. If the counterintuitive agent, associated with a divination practice, is
of high prestige, it should be rated as more credible than if a low prestige one was associated.
In order to test this, a story of the same form as in experiment 2 above was given.

Experiment 3

Participants 40 participants, 17 male 23 female aged 16-20 (M=18,33, SD=1,3), 77,5 %

from the Western Copenhagen Region (Himmelev Gymnasium) and 22,5% from Esbjerg at
the west coast of Denmark (Esbjerg Gymnasium). They were primarily Christian protestant
(49%) and Non-believers (44%). Other religious affiliations were 7%.

Materials Above we saw that freely conferred gifts were one of the empirical indicators of
prestige. This was used in this hypothetical story as an independent variable. One way of
doing this was to manipulate the size of sacrifices, which can be considered gifts to the gods
(Høgh-Olsen 2006): Low prestige god = sporadic offerings of dry bread, Medium prestige
god = daily offerings of a meal, and High prestige god = sometimes elaborate festive
banquettes of the finest food. As in experiment 2a fictive story was composed. 79 This story
was situated among the fictive tribe Kalungi in West Africa. The main character had to find

79
See appendix 3 for an English translation of the story.

102
out the reason for his wife’s barrenness. 80 A prescript read: “The Kalungi in West Africa
have different specialists, whom they often employ to reveal hidden causes of people’s
misfortune. They are all considered reliable and have a good reputation.” The specialists
were described as communicating with a god. The technique was not further specified. The
only thing that differed between the different specialists was the amount of sacrifice offered
to the god with whom they communicated. The sequence in which the different diviners were
presented was randomized into three different sets. Then participants were asked to circle the
diviner they thought it most likely the main character would consult. The dependent measure
was thus the diviner chosen. It is assumed that the most credible diviner is the one selected.

Design and Procedure 3(Set) x 1(Prestige) with prestige as a within subject variable and
set as a between subject variable. The procedure was the same as in experiment 1, and the
same instructions were given. The different sets were randomly assigned to the participants.

Results There were no overall effects of Set on Prestige, so the different sets were collapsed
into one for further statistical analysis. We should expect the prestige-bias to create a
preference for the diviners communicating with gods of high prestige. The distribution of
responses can be seen on figure 4.8.

Kalungi

20

15

Frequency 10

0
Low Medium High
Prestige of God

Figure 4.8. Choice of diviner based on the prestige of the god involved.

80
This is a typical reason for consultation based on the ethnographic record (Evans-Pritchard 1937: 261-262;
Jackson 1978; e.g. Mendonsa 1982: 114).

103
 The overall distribution is significant (χ2(2) = 11.105, p<.05). There is a significant
difference between the Low and the Medium condition (χ2(1) = 9.8, p<.01), but not between
the Medium and the High conditions. This could be attributed to a confusing measure: it is
difficult to assess whether elaborate banquettes or daily offerings constitute the greatest
amount of resources.
The preference for high prestige gods could be attributed to participants in general
believing in high gods. In that case we would expect participants who were non-believers to
show an equal preference for the different kinds and Christians and Muslims to show a
preference for the high god category. But there were no significant differences in choices
based on religious affiliation of the participants.
It can be seen that there is a significant difference in the preference of the diviner based on
the prestige of the associated counterintuitive agent. This preference is here interpreted to
reflect a difference in the credibility of the diviners. 81 Thus, prestige of the associated
counterintuitive agent has an effect on the perceived credibility of the diviner. Low indirect
prestige gives lower credibility than high indirect prestige.

Summary
Interpretation moves from the perception of intention produced by ritualization to the
recognition of these intentional signs as communicative. Through the basic principle of
relevance used in normal everyday communication, the interpreter interprets the signs in
relation to the context given by the question. Divination however differs from normal
communication in its sign inventory being much more limited and in the interpretation of
these signs as being much more “un-coded”. In general the relation between sign and
meaning in divination is much looser than in normal communication. There are also typically
constraints on the possible subjects that are fit for a given divination practice and the form in
which answers can be given: Divination practices can give binary, discrete or rich answers.
This has consequences for the utility of the divination practice. We also found that the
credibility of the interpretation depended on prestige. Two types of prestige were identified: a
direct prestige from the proximate source. This may either be the operator, for example when

81
It might of course reflect something else. It has been suggested to me by evolutionary
psychologist Joseph Bulbulia (personal communication) that the size of the offerings may reflect
costly signaling. But it is not specified that it is the diviner who sacrifices. It may however, still be
a possibility. To investigate this, further research is needed.

104
the questioner himself interprets, or the interpreter. High prestige indicates a higher
credibility value. We also found an indirect prestige effect from the prestige of the ultimate
source, the counterintuitive agent.

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Chapter 5 - Oblative divination82

Oblative divination is similar to impetrative divination in all aspects except the sign
production. In impetrative divination the sign production is a function of human manipulation
and it is no problem to identify the sign, whereas in oblative divination the problem is
identifying the sign in the daily stream of events. The basic problem is to account for the
principles for determining how certain occurrences become signs. Precious little research has
been done on omens since the turn of the previous century (cf. Lisdorf 2007c). What is
presented here is therefore naturally tentative.
According to one of the most perceptive analyses of omens by Caroline Humphrey, omens
arise from a person’s concern for his own situation (Humphrey 1976: 35). These concerns
are, as in impetrative divination, to achieve fortune and avoid misfortune. A quick glance at
any collection of omens will reveal that they’re typically related to the same life matters that
we found in impetrative divination: death (Cannell & Snapp 1933: 20-24; Hansen 1957: 48-
55, 94-122,137-167; Lingren 2003: 139-141; Lynge 1981: 126-141), marriage (Cannell &
Snapp 1933: 14-19; Cielo 1918: 7-22; Hansen 1957: 35-47; Lingren 2003: 132-138) and birth
(Jastrow 1914; Lingren 2003: 124-131; Lynge 1981: 19). While the process starts from this
motivation in impetrative divination, in oblative divination another triggering event is needed
– a sign. The argument put forward here is that these signs are interpreted as intentional signs
just as those produced in impetrative divination. To some it might be a controversial
position. 83
What makes an event a sign? Recent research in developmental psychology conducted by
Jesse Bering and Becky Parker touches on this (Bering & Parker 2006). Children from ages 4
to 7 were given the task to find out in which of two boxes a ball was hidden. They were told
to place the hand on the top of the box in which they thought the ball was and keep it there
for 15 seconds. During the 15 seconds they could move the hand back and forth as many
times as they wanted, but by the end of the 15 seconds the position of the hand would count
as the answer. The children were assigned to either an experimental group or a control group.
In the experimental group, the children were taken aside and shown a picture of Princess
Alice after the explanation of the rules of the game. They were told that Princess Alice was a
82
This section is based on (Lisdorf 2007c). There are also excerpts from (Lisdorf 2004c)
83
It would be a digression in this context, but a more elaborate argument for this can be found in (Lisdorf
2007c)

106
magical princess who could make herself invisible. They were also told that Princess Alice
really liked them and that she would tell them when they picked the wrong box. In the control
group, no story of Princess Alice was told. During some of the trials one of two unexpected
events would happen when the children had put their hand on the box. Either a picture of
Princess Alice would fall from the door, or a table lamp would turn on and off twice in rapid
succession.
The results showed that the young children in the experimental group did not react to the
unexpected events, but the oldest children, who are closer to adults in performance,
responded by moving their hand. This indicates that they had seen the unexpected event as an
intentional sign related to their current concern, which was to win the game. It also shows
how easily something unexpected can be interpreted as an intentional sign. We may here
notice that the experimental group was primed with a story about a counterintuitive agents
interest in their concern to win the game and this counterintuitive agent was endowed with
communicative abilities. This is very close to the situation we see in omens.
There is one difference to omens though; the children were explicitly told that Princess
Alice would communicate in this way, which is not the case for omens. However, in cultures
where belief in omens is widespread, similar stories about the communicative abilities of a
counterintuitive agent and its interest in their concerns are frequently communicated. This
produces a cultural model. 84 It is possible that a constant sensitivity to omens is present
because of frequent stories of omens. These stories function in much the same way as the
story of Princess Alice as a cultural prime. We should therefore expect a cultural model for
omens to increase the sensitivity to the perception of omens. The wider it is disseminated the
more “primed” are the population in the culture and therefore the more likely are they to
identify an event as an omen.
The study also suggests that the sign should be something unexpected. Based on cross-
cultural evidence it seems possible to make an empirical generalization about three different
ways events become salient.
1) The event is unexpected, but makes unique sense in relation to the interpreters’ current
concerns. Here the context is what determines the salience. Let us take an example: “At a
turning point in her life, Cait tried this technique [being attentive to omens]. Her omen was a
sound: She heard a creaky screen door opening. She realized that a door was truly opening in
84
A cultural model is a cognitive model that is widely disseminated in a population (Shore 1996: 46-50). It
resembles what Dan Sperber calls a “cultural cognitive causal chain” (Sperber 2006: 157-160)

107
her life”. 85 In the example the technique of being attentive to omens functions like the
Princess Alice prime.
Another example where it is perhaps even clearer how the concern of an agent determines
the context in which an omen is interpreted is from a 19th century collection of Danish
folklore. The story is from 1886 and is about a boy from Fanø, Western Denmark. His father
had gone on a trip around the earth as a sailor, but it had been a long time since he had
departed. Therefore people started to speculate that he had probably died. A friend of the boy
took him into his house and showed him a jar in which there was water. In the water had been
put the yoke of an egg and at the bottom something lay. The friend said that it signified that
the sailor, the boy’s father, had drowned. So his mother and aunt had told him” (Hansen
1957: 11). The context is here determined by the current concern of the boy and his mother
for the life or death of his father.
This form depends in large part on the previous dissemination of a cultural model that
functions like a cultural prime. Without being sensitive to the possibility of omens it is less
probable that an occurrence will be seen as an omen.
2) The event stems from a catalogue of recognized omens that have a predetermined
meaning. It can be something as vague as a good or bad sign. Consequently it is not always
immediately clear what concern it relates to and the interpretation can change. An example
from the same folklore collection from Denmark shows this: “On the church in Tjørring sat
an owl that howled and Peter Christian thought: “What is that – it must mean something –
should I return?” But he continued. When the next day came he wanted to take a nap and said
to his wife: “Kræsten [his son] can come to me.” The boy, who was two years old and ran in
the kitchen, fell one moment later into a bowl of boiling hot brine, which the wife had put on
the floor and he became terribly burned and died” (Hansen 1957: 9). Apart from signifying
something bad, the precise meaning of the sign was not clear until later. It had been a
prediction of death in Peter Christian’s family. Here the owl is a sign from a catalogue of bad
signs, but the actual significance is only found later.
Some omen catalogues are much more elaborate, and frequently, they are written. A
prototypical example of this is the ancient Babylonian omens. Here the omens are written
down in large catalogues for future reference (Labat 1933). This form is dependent on the

85
From the website: http://www.care2.com/channels/solutions/home/1508 (08.02.07)

108
dissemination of the catalogue in the culture, whether or not it is confined to writing. It can
be seen that it is not dependent on the current concerns of the person identifying the omen.
3) The event is attention demanding in itself to a degree where a natural explanation is not
sufficient and is supplied with an intentional one. But what makes an occurrence attention
demanding? Research in the cognitive sciences seems to indicate that there are different
degrees. The most attention demanding are counterintuitive concepts. They are defined
according to a theory of human knowledge organization which stipulates that knowledge is
organized in distinct domains (Atran 1990; Hirschfeld 1996; Keil 1979; Sperber, Premack, &
Premack 1995). Each concept belongs to an ontological category which is connected to the
domains of either physics (objects), biology (plants and animals), or psychology (humans).
The former domains are embedded in the latter. Consequently, a concept which falls into the
biology domain also falls into the physics domain, but not vice versa. According to Pascal
Boyer, one or two violations of knowledge associated with a concept at the domain level
make a concept counterintuitive and optimally attention demanding (Boyer 2000; Boyer &
Ramble 2001). A violation is either a breach of expectations from a knowledge domain
connected to a given category, or a transfer from another domain of knowledge. Boyer
proposed a list of five primary ontological categories (Person, Animal, Plant, Natural Object
& Artifact) and three domains of knowledge attached to these (psychological, biological and
physical). This yields 15 different possibilities for violation at the category level (cf. Boyer &
Ramble 2001)
Justin Barrett and Melanie Nyhof demonstrated the existence of an intermediate category
between counterintuitive and normal, which was termed “bizarre” (Barrett & Nyhof 2001).
Bizarre concepts were defined thus: “bizarre items possessed a highly unusual feature that
violates no category-level assumptions but may violate basic-level regularities (e.g., a living
thing that weighs 5000 kilograms may be unusual for a dog, but weighing 5000 kilograms
does not violate assumptions about living things in general)” (Barrett & Nyhof 2001: 78).
Bizarre concepts can therefore be seen as violations of kind-level expectations, where
counterintuitive concepts are violations of category level expectations (Lisdorf 2004a). A
bizarre feature is consequently a feature which is highly unusual/irregular for any given
kind. 86 Consider an example of bizarreness from the Roman prodigies: A wolf has been seen

86
For research along these lines see (Boyer, Bedoin, & Honore 2000), which stipulates the same inferential
divide between domain and kind level expectations. What is here called bizarre seems to correspond to what
they call strange.

109
in the city. To most modern people they might be slightly irregular occurrences but not quite
bizarre. However, a wolf seen in the city was to the ancient Romans a highly bizarre feature,
as this animal was part of a group of animals which were seen as the antithesis of
civilization. 87 The Romans did not have a theory that animals in general couldn’t be in the
city, lots were indeed, but this specific animal was incompatible with city life; there was a
kind-level expectation that this kind lives in and roams the countryside, not the city. This is
not an expectation for the entire category of animals.
Recent research has nuanced the picture somewhat (Alles 2006; Atran & Norenzayan 2004;
Norenzayan et al. 2006a), but it seems clear that for concepts that are minimally
counterintuitive concepts presented with a context, such as a narrative or event, are the most
attention demanding (Gonze et al. 2006: 544). It therefore seems safe to say that
counterintuitiveness and bizarreness is a good index of how attention demanding some
occurrence is.

All forms of omens are interpreted as intentional signs from counterintuitive agents. The
identification depends on two primary factors: a wide dissemination of a cultural model
which functions like priming in heightening the population’s general sensitivity to the
communicative potential of salient events. Events become salient in one of three ways: either
by the context of the current concern of a person, by the recognition of an event as one from a
pre-existing catalogue of omens, or by the event being unexpected or attention demanding in
itself. The basic motivation and the interpretation is the same as in impetrative divination.

87
Wolves are the most prominent non domesticated animal and predator, featured in the mythology of
Rome’s origins (e.g. Ovid´s Fasti (Ov.Fast.2. 267-452); (cf. Wiseman 1995) for myths surrounding the
origins of Rome). The “anti-civilizedness” can also be seen in the character of the celebration Lupercalia (the
wolfish celebration) on February 15. Here half naked young boys ran around wildly and hit bystanders with a
thong inside the sacred perimeters of Rome (cf. Scullard 1981: 76).

110
Chapter 6 - Cultural epidemiology

Before we proceed, it is necessary to sum up what we have found on the cognitive factors
underlying divination. The core function of divination is, as stipulated in chapter 3, the
activation of a representation of a communicative interaction with a counterintuitive agent.
This function is orchestrated in three phases corresponding to the three elements in
divination: motivation, sign production and interpretation. The first phase is the pre-
activation phase, the next is the activation phase, and the last is the elaboration phase.
The pre-activation phase establishes the potential for activation. In impetrative divination it
is the formulation of a question and in oblative divination it is the current concern that
establishes this potentiation. Both depend on a perception of a discrepancy between the lived
life and the idealized life model, what we called actual or potential misfortune in chapter 4.
This in turn depends on the establishment of a life model and a cognitive feedback system
that regulates life.
The activation phase moves from the perception of intentionality to the identification of
this as a communicative intentionality (divination differs from normal functioning in that this
identification cannot be referred to manifest agents). This phase depends on the sign
production to produce a stimulus with certain qualities, which subsequently makes its
identification as being the product of an intentional agent possible. In impetrative divination,
the activation is facilitated by the displacement and replacement of intention produced by the
ritualization of action in the technique employed. As seen in chapter 5, in oblative divination
the cultural “priming” produced by a widely circulated cultural model and the perception of a
salient event facilitates such activation. These two routes lead to the activation of the HIDD,
which is the basis for the core function of divination. The activation of the HIDD is followed
by an identification of a communicative interaction in difference from other types of
interaction, such as for example exchange. In impetrative divination this is stimulated by the
prior formulation of a question, in oblative divination it is stimulated by the cultural model
specifying the possibility of receiving communicative signs from counterintuitive agents.
The elaboration phase moves from the identification of the content, that is, the answer, to
the assessment of the credibility of this content. In impetrative divination the interpretation of
the information in the sign will follow the principle of relevance and is based on the
identification of a communicative sign and the context of the question. This will produce an

111
answer. In oblative divination the information is derived from the current concern of the
addressee and the character of the sign. It likewise follows the principle of relevance.
Subsequently an assessment of the credibility of the answer follows. This is done in two
stages. The first stage follows a perception of indices of prestige of the proximate
communicator. In impetrative divination this will usually be the interpreter, but if the
questioner himself interprets the sign, the proximate communicator will be represented as the
operator. In oblative divination the proximate communicator will be the interpreter. This is
what we identified as direct prestige. The second stage of the identification of credibility is
the perception of indices of the prestige of the ultimate communicator, i.e. the
counterintuitive agent. This probably depends on memory, for example the size and
frequency of sacrifices usually offered to the counterintuitive agent or the established
hierarchy of the gods. This last stage naturally only applies when there is a perception of a
named counterintuitive agent. The product of these phases is an answer and a representation
of the credibility of this answer. Note that the content of the answer and the credibility of the
answer depend on different processes. The answer varies with each question, while the
credibility varies with the interpreter and counterintuitive agent.

112
 Phase Pre-Activation Activation Elaboration
Cognitive “Life regulation” HIDD Joint attention Principle of Prestige bias (direct) Prestige bias
function relevance (indirect), memory,
meta-representation
Stage Potentiation Detection of Detection of Detection of Assessment of Assessment of
intention communicative informative credibility 1 credibility 2
intention intention
Input Stimulus Sign (intentional) Communicative Indices of prestige Indices of prestige
sign of interpreter ∗ of CIA +
Description Motivates Identifies Identifies Provides Provides assessment Provides assessment
of purpose correctional action - intentional signs communicative interpretation of the of credibility based of credibility based
Question from other signs signs sign on prestige of on prestige of
proximate ultimate
communicator communicator
Output Question/current Sign (intentional) Sign Information Credibility value Credibility value
concern (communicative) (answer)
Condition of Perception of actual Ritualized Question The actual sign and A perception of A perception of
activation or potential production of a sign information on indices of prestige indices of the
misfortune context of question of the interpreter ∗ prestige of CIA
impetrative
divination
Condition of Perception of actual Cultural prime and Cultural model The actual sign and A perception of A perception of
activation or potential a salient event the context of the indices of prestige indices of the
misfortune current concern of the interpreter prestige of CIA
oblative
divination

Figure 6.1. Cognitive basis of divination

∗
Or the operator in impetrative divination when the questioner interprets the sign himself.
+
CIA is an abbreviation for counterintuitive agent.

113
Figure 6.1. brings together the observations on the cognitive basis of divination made in
chapters 4 and 5. The top row shows the different overall phases, then comes the central
cognitive functions that are involved and their purpose. In the manner of traditional cognitive
science the different inputs, function, and output along with their conditions of activation are
specified (Cf. Marr 1982). As can be seen these differ in certain cases between impetrative
and oblative. Obviously the figure is not exhaustive, but merely meant as a form of roadmap
that ties together central observations about relations between different factors identified in
this dissertation.
Now that we have considered the central cognitive factors underlying divination, we need
to ask how this may help to solve our primary problem: why divination was so widely
disseminated and persistent in Roman culture. The original turn towards cognitive theories in
investigating religion was made by anthropologist and cognitive scientist Dan Sperber. His
point of departure was a critique of contemporary anthropology. He argued that
anthropology’s relation to psychology should be like epidemiology’s relation to biology
(Sperber 1975: 30). Later he more thoroughly worked out the framework of an epidemiology
of beliefs (Sperber 1996; Sperber 1985). The basic principle is that cultural ideas are ideas
widespread in a population. Just as diseases are transmitted on the basis of the biological
system of humans, so are ideas transmitted on the basis of the properties of the cognitive
system of humans. Another reason why epidemiology is a particularly relevant analogy is
that epidemiology has a population perspective and explicitly works with social as well as
biological factors.
The epidemiology of ideas, or “representations” as it is also sometimes called, starts from
the cognitive system. The cognitive system has certain biases. These biases will influence the
probability that a given idea will become widespread in a population. But ideas are not like
viruses. 88 They get changed slightly every time they get transmitted. Sperber developed the
idea of attractor positions. In a given series of transmissions, a given idea will converge on
one such attractor position, because of the biases in the cognitive system (Sperber 1996: 106-
112). The local cultural context however also has an effect on this attractor position. Take the
example of a folktale. Some versions of a tale are easier for storytellers to remember because
of cognitive biases and because of local cultural relevance (Sperber 1996: 108). In a later

88
Indeed Sperber spent a good deal of effort in arguing against the extreme version of this idea known as
memetics (Sperber 2000). This theory stipulates that ideas are like genes that reproduce in humans’ minds
(Blackmore 1999; Dawkins 1976; Dennett 1995).

114
formulation Sperber describes the purpose of the epidemiology of representations as “(..) not
to describe in any detail the actual causal chains that stabilize (..) a particular cultural
representation (..) but to identify factors and processes that help explain the existence and
effect of these causal chains. For instance, showing that a particular folktale has an optimal
structure for human memory and that there are recurring social situations in a given society in
which people are motivated to tell it or to have it told, helps explain why the tale is told again
and again with little or no distortion of content in that society” (Bloch & Sperber 2002:
727). 89 Sperber has later made some more precise suggestions to the mechanisms behind this,
but not investigated it in any great empirical detail (Sperber 2006).
Pascal Boyer was the first to apply the insights of Sperber in a concrete research program.
He argued that religious ideas are universally widespread in all cultures because they are
counterintuitive (Boyer 1994). Counterintuitive ideas are distinguished by having one
counterintuitive feature, a breach of expectations, such as a mountain that needs to eat, a
person who is invisible, or statues that sweat. The counterintuitive feature makes them more
attention demanding and therefore more memorable. When they are more memorable they
have a higher probability of being transmitted. The implications of this theory have been
investigated in controlled psychological experiments about the transmission of
counterintuitive ideas (Barrett & Keil 1996; Barrett & Nyhof 2001) and cross cultural
investigations of the enhanced memory of counterintuitive ideas (Boyer & Ramble 2001).
The epidemiological idea of focusing on cognitive biases to understand cultural forms has
subsequently become the dominant approach in the cognitive science of religion. It can be
seen in Boyer’s theory of religion (Boyer 2001; Lienard & Boyer 2006), in Harvey
Whitehouse’s theory of modes of religiosity (Whitehouse 1996), in Thomas Lawson’s and
Robert McCauley’s theory of ritual (McCauley & Lawson 2002c) and in Scott Atran’s theory
of religion (Atran 2002). Although this has been a very fertile approach, there are still some
points of criticism to be leveled against this approach.
First, the idea that epidemiology primarily deals with transmission on the model of
infectious disease, is not accurate. Key epidemiological areas such as cancer, diabetes,
cardiovascular diseases and obesity have little or no transmission aspect. A text book in
epidemiology defines it thus: “Epidemiology can be defined as the study of the distribution of
disease and its determinants in human populations. In other words, it provides the answers to
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For recent research on folktales along these lines see (Lisdorf 2004a; Norenzayan, Atran, Faulkner, &
Schaller 2006b)

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questions on how much disease there is, who gets it and what specific factors put individuals
at risk” (Silman & Macfarlane 2002: 3). The central concern is therefore risk factors. In
epidemiology transmission is covered in the term exposure. Sometimes exposure is the most
important factor, as is the case in very virulent diseases such as some forms of viral
gastroenteritis, where the briefest exposure to a microscopic virus can transmit the disease.
Here exposure is the most important risk factor. Other times exposure is not very important,
such as certain forms of cancer, e.g. lung cancer where it is possible to smoke for decades
and still not develop lung cancer.
Let us consider a cultural analogue: suicide terrorism. Most people have been exposed to it
on the news, yet not so many practice it anyway. This is clearly a case where transmission is
not sufficient to understand the spread of the phenomenon. If we instead focus on risk factors
we can identify several: being male, 18-38 years, unmarried, and of average socio-economic
status in Palestine are factors that significantly increase the risk of the suicide terrorism
(Atran 2003: 1537). Therefore, the central concern of a cultural epidemiology should not be
transmission, but risk factors. Transmission is only one such and often very important.
Second, the epidemiological metaphor has functioned as a way to shift the entire focus to
cognition. One could be cynical and claim that it has primarily functioned as a way to change
career to psychology. It seems that Sperber’s original claim that local factors are important
has been entirely forgotten in practice. All research done has the purpose to discover
universal characteristics (Atran & Norenzayan 2004; Boyer 2003; Sperber & Hirschfeld
2004b). This is the opposite focus of epidemiology which seeks to understand local
characteristics in populations.
Third, no one has ever applied a more sophisticated understanding of epidemiology than
the folk version presented by Sperber in the original formulation. Epidemiology as a
discipline has an enormous unexplored potential. There are many analytical principles and
models that could be applied if the original idea of Sperber was taken seriously, that is, to
identify the factors and processes that stabilize cultural phenomena. 90
Fourth, the focus on the cognitive basis has resulted in too many sleight of hand
assumptions about what would be the large scale effect of these small scale properties in a
population. It is never enough to focus on the mind to understand culture. It is necessary to
model the properties to find out how the interactions influence the large scale phenomena
90
There are notable exceptions outside the cognitive science of religion (Aunger 2002; Cavalli-Sforza &
Feldman 1981; Guglielmino et al. 1995).

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(Henrich & Boyd 2002: 110). Such models already exist and have been applied to the study
of culture (Boyd & Richerson 1985; Cavalli-Sforza & Feldman 1981). These works were
originally dismissed by Sperber because they assumed a simplified view of the mind (Sperber
1996). It has however turned out that this need not be the case (Henrich & Boyd 2002) and
Sperber seems to admit the appropriateness of these models although he disagrees with some
of the details (Cladière & Sperber 2007).

I will follow the cultural epidemiology approach because it is already integrated with the
cognitive science of religion and because with a few adjustments it is very suitable to solve
the problem at hand. These adjustments are, first we need to shift our emphasis to risk factors
and multi-factorial explanations if we want to use the cultural epidemiology in actual
investigations of the dissemination of cultural entities. Second, we have to reintegrate other
factors aside from the cognitive ones in explaining the success of certain cultural entities
compared to others. In particular I would emphasize what others have called “contextual” or
“environmental” factors in cultural transmission. For example evolutionary anthropologists
Joseph Henrich and Richard McElrath argue that there are two overall types of biases in
cultural transmission: a content bias and a context bias (Henrich & McElreath 2003: 129).
The content bias captures what Sperber, Boyer and others have identified as the cognitive
bias. This is a universal bias. For example, as shown in chapter 4, we found a content bias in
divination in the bias towards representing intentionality, the HIDD. The context bias covers
what Sperber called “local cultural context” and is dependent on local factors. There are two
sub categories of cultural biases: model based biases and frequency dependent biases. The
most relevant model based bias for our purposes is the prestige bias mentioned above. We
also found a frequency dependent bias in oblative divination in the importance of reiteration
of cultural models specifying the ability of a counterintuitive agent to communicate with
humans.
Third, we cannot hope to find necessary and sufficient conditions for the dissemination of
divination. We need to look at factors that promote the cultural entities under consideration,
be they beliefs, folk tales, artifacts, house building or, indeed, divination. These factors are
probabilistic and therefore not necessary and sufficient.

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 While many good and detailed models have been developed to analyze cultural
transmission (Boyd & Richerson 1985; Cavalli-Sforza & Feldman 1981), the limitation of
sources available in historical research imposes some limits on what we can use. I will only
use one particular method from epidemiology, which is usually just the starting point in an
epidemiological study. It is called a Web of Causation. It is essentially a simplified model of
the stipulated causal relationship between different factors promoting a disease in a
population. Usually this serves as a point of departure for further empirical analysis. But
before we can start to apply this method we have to be more specific as to what it is we are
studying.
In epidemiology the object of study is the distribution of disease in a population. Even here
it is not an exact science to diagnose what counts as a case. Often it is based on clinical
opinion (Silman & Macfarlane 2002: 3). Precise diagnostic criteria need not therefore be
specified. In the cultural version the object of study is some sort of cultural entity. This entity
need not be the property of one individual, but can depend on several individuals. In our case
it is divination.
Divination depends crucially on a person being motivated to pose a question he cannot find
answers to in other ways. In the unlikely situation that human misfortune was eradicated, it
would undermine the basis of divination. Likewise, if someone could learn anything with
certainty through ordinary human perception, divination would also loose its basis. What
determines the choice of one divination practice compared to another depends on how
credible it is generally taken to be. I have tried to capture this credibility with the term
credibility value. It is likely that the credibility value is important for a divination practice.
We therefore have to evaluate the factors that increase and decrease the credibility value of a
divination practice. Another factor of importance is the utility of the practice; after all, if the
divination practice only allows you to receive perfect advice as to whether you should buy a
blue or a red car, it may not be of much use anyhow. A third and more loose factor is the
knowledge of the divination practice and a general understanding of how it works. This is
captured in the cognitive model used to conceptualize the practice. It is therefore possible to
sketch the stipulated web of causation for divination impetrative and oblative divination
respectively.
We stipulated that the following factors were important for the success of impetrative
divination (see fig.6.1.)

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 Dissemination of divination practice

Credibility Utility Cultural Motivation

value model

Ritual Direct Indirect

prestige prestige Form Subject

Similar Frequency
Social hierarchy - Divine hierarchy models of use
Prestige distribution Religious ontology

Figure 6.2. Web of Causation for dissemination of a given divination practice

Ritualized sign production is a precondition for the representation of a counterintuitive

agent as the ultimate source of the information. The activation of a knowledge domain close
to human should make the activation of a counterintuitive agent more probable. The direct
prestige of the interpreter or operator and the indirect prestige of the counterintuitive agent
also determine the perceived credibility of the information produced by the practice. These
are in turn determined by the prestige distribution of the social hierarchy and the divine
hierarchy of the religious ontology. The utility characteristics determine the contexts in
which the divination practice can become relevant. The cognitive model for how the practice
is reflectively conceptualized helps stabilize the memory of the practice, which is important
for its probability to be recalled as a possible plan of action when a person is motivated.
Since the cognitive model is generic, the use of other similar models, such as oblative
divination, may also “spill over” and strengthen the memory of the particular practice.

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 Dissemination of omens

Salient event
Credibility
value Cultural
model
Unexpected Catalogue of Current
event signs Concerns Direct
prestige
Frequency of
communication
about omens
Motivation Social hierarchy
Distribution of prestige

Figure 6.3. Web of Causation for the dissemination and resilience of omens

To account for the dissemination oblative divination, it is important to have a cultural

model which functions like a constant prime in heightening the population’s sensitivity to the
communicative potential of salient events. The trigger of an omen is a salient event. An event
can become salient in one of three ways: either by the context of the current concern of a
person, by the recognition of an event as one from a pre-existing catalogue of signs, or by the
event being unexpected or attention demanding in itself. The basic motivation and the
interpretation is the same as in impetrative divination. As in impetrative divination the direct
prestige of the interpreter will have an influence on the credibility of the information
interpreted from the omen.
These are the stipulated factors for the two different kinds of divination, but we don’t know
yet the relative importance of them. Neither do we know if they have any measurable
consequences for the dissemination of divination practices. This is why we will now turn to
the empirical investigation of divination in the Roman Republic. However, first, it is
necessary to dwell on the analytical procedure. In the preceding chapters, we have identified
a number of different factors that are stipulated to be important for the dissemination of a
divination practice. Now let us look at how they can become empirically tractable to see
whether the model for the dissemination and persistence of divination is accurate.

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 For impetrative divination, all known practices in the Roman republic found in the
historical sources will be evaluated with regard to the following factors:
• Technique. Here the exact technique is described. It will be mentioned whether it is
focused on intuitive physics, biology or psychology.
• Ritualization. Here it will be treated whether and how the technique is ritualized.
Cases where mistakes or manipulation has taken place will be considered in detail,
since they could be related to the presence/absence of ritualization.
• Direct prestige. Here it will be assessed whether the status of the operators or
interpreters are high or low based on a civic scale. This has consequences for the
credibility of the information
• Indirect prestige. Here the status in the hierarchy of the associated counterintuitive
agent in the Roman pantheon is assessed.
• Subject/credibility value. It will be described for what subjects the technique was
used. It will also be treated whether the decisions made on the basis of the divination
technique entail great actual or potential use of resources. What are the contents –
what can it tell?
• History. Here the probable historical trajectory of the divination form will be traced
• Cultural model. Here the explicit conceptualization is treated, with a special view as
to whether it agrees with the cultural model found among omens.

For oblative divination, it is first of all necessary to evaluate the following factors:
• Cultural model. Is there a cultural model specifying a relation between a
counterintuitive agent and signs related to the current concerns of people? How
widespread was it?
• Salient event. How do events achieve salience and become identified as omens?
• Direct prestige. It is necessary to find out to what degree oblative divination was tied
to direct prestige.

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Chapter 7 - Research history on Roman divination

In this chapter I will review the research history of Roman divination. The focus will be on
treatments giving some sort of explanation for the existence of divination in Roman
republican times. This means that I will not review treatments which are only descriptive or
whose main focus is some detail, unless they have some general applicability to the study of
Roman divination. Previous reviews on research into Roman divination have focused largely
on English and German traditions (e.g. Rasmussen 2003). The French tradition has not
received the same amount of attention (Lisdorf 2004b) and the Italian is virtually never
mentioned except in points of detail. I have tried to include these where relevant. Hopefully
this will result in a fuller picture of the history of research on Roman divination.
I will begin with a roughly chronological survey of relevant works. Here I will try to sketch
how the treatments have oscillated between the largely idiographic tradition of classical
philology and the new comparative nomothetic tradition of anthropology which developed
around the turn of the 19th century. In a subsequent section I will extract the most prevalent
theses put forth in previous research to explain Roman divination, and review them critically.

Chronology of research on Roman Divination

In a sense the history of research about Roman divination starts with the Romans themselves.
Primarily Cicero, but also Varro, Valerius Flacchus, Seneca and Plinius researched Roman
divination. We have already examined Cicero's De Divinatione above. There are no generally
recognized treatments of Roman divination from medieval times. It is not until modern times
that we find a treatment that can match Cicero's. That is the 4 volume study by Antoine
Bouché-Leclercq from the 1870s. This is where we will begin our survey.

Classical philology
Modern research on Ancient divination grows out of classical philology. One landmark is the
monumental four volume work Historie de la divination dans l'antiquité by Antoine Bouché-
Leclercq (Bouché-Leclercq 1879). The book is an impressive collection of all known forms
of divination in classical antiquity. Bouché-Leclercq does not have an explicit theory of

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divination, but he does have certain theoretical assumptions. For example he writes that
sortition satisfied the religious sentiment and curiosity of the Romans (Bouché-Leclercq
1879: II, 41-42). In other places, though, he seems to think that there was nothing religious
about divination. Concerning the auspices, he writes that Roman divination has moved away
from theology and become formalistic; it has moved from the religious domain to the legal
and has thereby lost its original life (Bouché-Leclercq 1879: IV, 178). He also thought
prodigies, and especially their expiation, served to reduce fear among the population
(Bouché-Leclercq 1879: IV, 80). We can distinguish three key assumptions in his work: that
divination satisfied a religious urge, that divination in its ritual form had lost its religious
character and become formalistic and legalistic, and that prodigies and their expiation served
to reduce fear. These assumptions, as we shall see, surface regularly in the research history of
Roman divination.
The two giants in the research of Roman culture and religion Theodor Mommsen and
Georg Wissowa, whose works are known to be quarries of information and starting points for
almost any investigation, were mainly concerned with describing technicalities. They did,
however, notice that divination was used to obstruct, and thereby manipulate, the political
process (Mommsen 1952: I, 80; Wissowa 1912: I, 540). Mommsen especially shared the
view of Bouché-Leclercq that divination had become mere legal technicalities.
Another central early work on Roman religion was W. Warde-Fowlers The Religious
Experience of the Roman People from 1911. The basic idea of Warde-Fowler was that
Roman religion originally implied some real religious feeling, but this had disappeared in
historical times. This disappearance of religious feeling can be seen in the "over-elaboration"
of the ritual aspect (Warde-Fowler 1971: 292). Thus the focus on the ritual element in
divination was taken to be the result of the decay of true religious feeling. He also had an
interesting theory about the historical development of divination: divination originally arose
out of an agricultural society’s need to predict the weather. Eventually it was adapted to the
needs of the city. This was formalized by the state and ended up being used for private ends,
that is, as manipulation. This is an historical explanation similar to Bouché-Leclercq’s,
Wissowa’s and Mommsen’s.
The early research thus took divination rituals to be a formalistic dilution of true religious
belief. In historical times it had become an empty formalism which was used only for
manipulation. There is a common assumption of decay in Roman religion. Another

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assumption is that divination, especially prodigies and their expiation, had the function of
reducing the fear of the Roman people. Interestingly we can see a close parallel between
these early classical philologists and their object of study: the idea that things were in a state
of decay pervaded Roman culture 91 , the idea of divination as manipulation is glossed from
Cicero’s De Divinatione and De Domo Sua 92 and the idea of prodigies calming and being
produced by fear is pervasive in Livy. 93

Anthropology
Around the turn of the 19th century, anthropology was making progress and even classical
philologists such as James George Frazer and Jane Ellen Harrison made significant
contributions to anthropology. They did this by integrating knowledge of the “new” cultures
discovered by explorers with the old knowledge of classical history. While Warde-Fowler
was familiar with the evolutionistic ideas, others more explicitly integrated evolutionistic
theories in their explanation of Roman divination. Franklin Brunell Krauss wrote a
dissertation in 1933 dealing with prodigies, omens and portents. As did his predecessors, he
tied individual and national stress to anxiety, which in turn led to the observation and
treatment of prodigies, omens and portents. But he interpreted Roman religion according to
evolutionistic schemes and saw omens as a survival from a more primitive stage of culture
(Krauss 1933). Similar passing references to primitive religions in the treatment of Roman
religion, can be seen in Arthur Stanley Pease’s comprehensive commentary Cicero’s De
Divinatione originally from 1920 (Pease 1963).
Another author inspired by evolutionist thought was Jean Bayet. Coming from France, he
was inspired by Lucien Lévy-Bruhl, as opposed to James G. Frazer and Edward B. Tylor who
figure more prominently in the Anglophone research tradition. In 1957 Bayet wrote Histoire
politique et psychologique de la religion romaine. This is a general work on Roman religion.
According to Bayet, the tendency to see omens was a psychological disposition among the
Romans (Bayet 1957: 53). In a later work he more explicitly uses ideas from Lévy-Bruhl in
order to understand the omens of the Roman people. According to Bayet it is not possible to

91
That is, at least at the time when our sources were written. One key example is Emperor Augustus’
Monumentum Ancyranum, which has a list of all the decaying religious temples he restored Aug.Anc.20.17. It
can also be seen throughout Cicero’s De Divinatione e.g. Div.2.76f
92
The De Divinatione book 2 could be read as showing that the Romans did not really believe in divination
and only used it to manipulate (cf. Lisdorf 2005b). The De Domo Sua could be read as a cynical manipulation
of religion by Cicero in order to get his house back (cf. Lisdorf 2005b).
93
On prodigies in Livy see (Levene 1993)

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understand primitive thought. What we can do is try to understand the origin. He tries to
isolate the more primitive omens, which he calls "presage figurative" from those of a more
developed religion, which he calls "signe divin" (Bayet 1971: 55). It can be seen that he, like
Krauss, works from a basically evolutionistic assumption, in which divination belongs to the
primitive stage. Thus divination is explained as a survival from an earlier stage of culture.

Post evolutionism
After the optimism of comparative anthropological explanations had faded, the historical
philological tradition came into power again. A French monograph on the subject of
prodigies in general appeared in 1963. In Raymond Bloch's book Les prodiges dans
l'antiquité classique the overall thesis is that Roman divination is developed under influence
of its two great neighboring civilizations: the Greek and the Etruscan (Bloch 1963).
Ultimately he wants to trace it to the Babylonians (Bloch 1963: 80). Bloch wanted to explain
prodigies as being caused by fear caused in turn by crises (Bloch 1963: 6, 94, 124). The
expiations performed in response to the prodigies calmed the fear. With the coming of Greek
philosophy in the 2nd century BCE, the Romans became more skeptical and turned the
prodigy system into an instrument for the privileged classes (Bloch 1963: 137-138). This way
fear could be exploited politically through prodigies (Bloch 1963: 139). On the one hand
Bloch explains prodigies as a product of historical influences, something the Romans had
from the Greeks and Etruscans, and on the other hand as something caused by fear and crises,
amenable as an instrument of manipulation.
In Kurt Latte's influential general account of Roman religion, Religion der Römer, an
historical approach was taken to the general study of Roman religion. The influence of
Greece on Rome was of central importance for Latte. According to Latte a scheme could be
made for the development of Roman religion. Before 500 BCE the Romans believed in
Dynamism. This is an idea inspired by the concept of mana from evolutionistic anthropology.
Around 500 BCE the belief in anthropomorphic gods began. Around 300 BCE the decay of
Roman religion set in with the introduction of Greek philosophy. This can be seen in the
works of Plautus or Ennius. Eventually, around the time of Cicero and Varro, divination was
a mere instrument of manipulation in the political process (Latte 1960).

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 It can be seen that Latte's as well as Bloch's explanations emphasize historical influences in
the explanation of Roman divination. We also see the more traditional explanations, such as
divination being an instrument of manipulation and divination being a function of fear.

Fear and trembling...

From the 1970s onwards fear as an explanatory category came back in to focus in the attempt
to explain divination in Rome. A number of explanations from this period develop the earlier
ideas in light of philosophy, psychology and sociology. One of the exponents of this type of
argument, Georges Dumezil, is one of the great historians of religion. Although he was most
famous for his Indo-European thesis, he did valuable work on Roman religion as well. In his
main contribution, Archaic Roman Religion, he writes: "The concern for discovering the
feelings of the gods is very close to an obsession. Not only does public credulity dangerously
multiply prodigies, during crises and even in periods of calm, but the anxious waiting for
auspicia oblativa, the dispositions to hear omina everywhere, reminds us of familiar mental
troubles. Does the religious life of individuals and of the state suggest psychiatry?" (Dumezil
1970: 119). According to Dumezil divination is best seen as a kind of collective psychosis
brought about by crises. In line with earlier research he also sees the Romans as insincere in
general (Dumezil 1970: 121). Thus, during the last centuries of the Roman republic,
divination declined into being mere manipulation which fed on collective psychosis (Dumezil
1970: 121-122, 610).
Johan Hugo Wolfgang Gideon Liebeschuetz's Continuity and Change in Roman Religion
from 1979 is another influential general treatment of Roman Religion. In this treatment
divination plays a central role. According to Liebeschuetz divination had the central function
of maintaining public confidence and avoiding panic: "This would calm the emotions, reduce
defeatism and obviate the search for scapegoats. An atmosphere was created in which senate
and people could decide on future strategy in a rational matter" (Liebeschuetz 1979: 10). He
is also the first to suggest an explanation of why it is that the Romans did not find out that the
system didn't work. This is due to what he calls a "kink" in human psychology: "divination
enables the client to think out his own solution to the problem, but owing to a ‘kink’ in
human psychology, the real working of the system is not scrutinized" (Liebeschuetz 1979:
20). He refers here to William Bascom's work (Bascom 1969; Bascom 1941). The vagueness
of divination and the fact that only successes are remembered are contributing factors to the

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maintenance of divination (Liebeschuetz 1979: 27). This is the first time a psychological
explanation that does not entail pathologies or superstition is offered.
A central contribution giving an explanation involving fear and anxiety is Burkhardt
Gladigow's compact and innovative essay from 1979 Konkrete Angst und offene Furcht.
Gladigow starts from existential philosophy, more precisely Kierkegaard's distinction
between fear and anxiety. Anxiety is the unobjectified and fear is the objectified feeling
(Gladigow 1979: 16). What provokes anxiety is the lack of natural order evident in the
prodigies (e.g. a calf born with two heads). The classification of these transgressions of
natural law as prodigies objectifies them and turns the feeling into fear. Periods of crisis also
stimulate anxiety (Gladigow 1979: 74). By responding to the prodigies with rituals the fear is
turned into "sozialer zusammengehörigkeit.(..) Die Rituale haben dann die Aufgabe, parallel
zur typischen minimalisierung von Angst Vertrauen auzubauen" (Gladigow 1979: 75-76).
The theory thus stipulates that the psychological basis is anxiety, which is first turned into
fear, and then, through common action, into social coherence. We thus see a mix between a
fear based and a functional explanation of the handling of prodigies. Divination in this view
serves the function of enhancing social cohesion.
Veit Rosenberger's monograph on prodigies from 1998 Gezähmte Götter – Das
Prodigienwesen der römischen Republik is the lengthiest and most theoretically informed to
date. It is also highly eclectic. Therefore it can be difficult to single out just one explanation.
Rosenberger uses Mary Douglas' anthropological theories of classification and Victor
Turner's theories of ritual. In Rosenberger's view prodigies express anti-structure as they are
characterized by a transgression of classificatory categories. Then, through the ritual action of
the following expiations, structure is re-established. Rosenberger also makes extensive use of
Gladigow's theory, and sees prodigies as the specific coding of anxieties caused by crises,
most notably wars (Rosenberger 1998).

Manipulation
We saw earlier that already the first theories invoked manipulation as a central component of
divination. Lily Ross Taylor's Party Politics in the Age of Cesar from 1949 is the first
analysis to unequivocally emphasize the manipulation aspect as the explanation of divination.
According to Taylor, in the early republic, the patricians manipulated the plebeians into
subjection, but eventually, as the plebeians achieved the same power as the patricians, they

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both shared the same attitude towards the masses (Taylor 1949: 76). 94 Like Bloch and Latte,
she also sees the influence of Greek skepticism as the cause of the decay of divination into an
instrument of manipulation (Taylor 1949: 78).
A more limited use of the manipulation argument is offered by Bruce McBain who made a
study of prodigies in the republican period. He attaches special importance to the rituals
performed in response to the prodigies, the expiations. According to him divination was used
as an instrument in foreign policy: when an enemy threatened Rome from the North, that is
Etruria, then Etruscan divination experts were called to the senate to interpret the prodigies.
MacBain thinks that this served to strengthen the allegiance of Etruria to Rome (MacBain
1982: 60). It is thus a foreign policy 95 version of the political manipulation thesis expounded
by Taylor and others.

Drawing lots- chance and ritual

Another line of research is focused on sortition. Sortition was used as a form of public
divination, but has curiously been ignored in earlier research on Roman divination. 96 Since it
is a form of divination, it is necessary also to look at research on sortition.
Jaqueline Champeaux, whose work on Italian sortition oracles in general and the Fortuna
oracle in Praeneste in particular is immense, has an interesting observation on the ritual
nature of sortition. Contrary to previous treatments of the ritual element in Roman divination,
she does not consider it a mere sterile formalism of no consequence. She sees the chance
entailed in divination as the language of the gods, and continues: "dans les sorts s'unissent les
realisations du hasard et du destin" (Champeaux 1982: I, 434). According to her, the ritual
techniques employed are not just empty formalisms, but produce the chance element
necessary for sortition to "work" as the language of the gods.
Also working on sortition, but in relation to the public sphere in Rome, Roberta Stewart
touches on the problem of whether the Romans believed in their rituals. She thinks that the
Romans did take sortition seriously as a ritually circumscribed political procedure. This

94
She explicitly mentions Marx's dictum about religion as the opiate for the people on page 77. A more
explicit Marxist analysis in the same vein can be found in (Günther 1964).
95
Technically Etruria is not foreign in the period treated, but they were still to a certain extent perceived as
foreign by the Romans.
96
As an example I can mention the recent doctor phil. thesis of Susanne William Rasmussen about public
portents, where nothing is mentioned about sortition (Rasmussen 2003). Likewise the recent article on
divination in Republican Rome in Thessaurus Cultus et Rituum Antiquorum has not included sortition (Rüpke
& Belayche 2005)

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signaled the patronage of Jupiter and was motivated by the wish to follow Roman political
traditions of the Republic (Stewart 1998: 51). She also notices the close similarities in
vocabulary in the use of sortition to omens.
Drawing on the work of Champeaux, Sarah Iles Johnston tries to explain why the Romans
on the one hand new that in sortition chance and randomness was the cause, but on the other
hand saw it as divine intervention. Her answer is that the Romans had two different modes of
explanation, and that they simply did not want to choose (Johnston 2003: 156). These
thoughts on the relation between ritual, chance and the gods in certain ways resemble the
explanation given in this dissertation.

Recent developments
In recent years criticism has been leveled against the traditional positions summarized above.
I will focus on two works. In her doctoral thesis on divination in the Roman Republic,
Susanne William Rasmussen argues that the main function of divination was to aid the
process of constructing and reconstructing Roman identity. Working from a social
constructivist viewpoint she sees all societies as fragile. 97 Identity is what keeps them from
collapsing into social anarchy. Through the process of identity construction of public
divination, past, present and future were linked together to constitute an orderly and
meaningful totality (cf. Lisdorf 2004b; Rasmussen 2003: 141). While the precise form of the
thesis is new, it shares with Gladigow, Liebeschuetz and Rosenberger the wish to explain the
existence of divination according to its function. Here its function is as identity constructor.
In distinction to the other theories, however, her thesis does not entail fear as a causal
component. Indeed the fear thesis is undermined.
Recently, in the magisterial two-volume work of Mary Beard, John North and Simon Price
(Beard, North, & Price 1998), the manipulation thesis and the assumption that the Romans
did not take divination seriously has been criticized. According to Beard and colleagues, it
may appear that the Romans manipulated their religion, but there is no known case where a
ruling of a priestly college is ignored and no known case where the religious procedures were
willfully ignored (Beard, North, & Price 1998: 126). They suggest another explanation of
why it is that the will of the gods could be seen as different at all: "if the gods support and
promote the Roman state (as they do), then they will make known their opposition to

97
Her main influence is Peter Berger and Thomas Luckmann (Berger 1967; Berger & Luckmann 1966)

129
legislation, that is, against the interests of the state. The snag, of course, is that there could be
vastly different views on what legislation is in fact 'good for Rome'" (Beard, North, & Price
1998: 126-127). Thus the Romans believed in divination, but their interpretations of the signs
from the gods may vary.

Summary
The early research was carried out in an ideographic historical fashion. The theses offered did
not differ significantly from those found in the sources of the Romans themselves. Around
the turn of the 19th century the study of divination was inspired by the new discipline of
anthropology, which added a general or nomothetic frame for conceptualizing Roman
divination. Eventually the enthusiasm of nomothetical explanations faded and a more
historical approach came to dominate again. In the seventies nomothetic approaches gained
influence again, as old ideas were further developed by the integration of advances in
psychology and philosophy. Sociological theory and new developments in anthropology
added new explanatory frames that were put to use in explaining divination. As can be seen
from the preceding, quite a lot of overlap exists between the different explanations offered,
although all of them have their own peculiarities and focus, they all seem to mix a small
number of explanations. For purposes of critical evaluation, they can be summarized in the
form of four central theses: the historical thesis, the formalist thesis, the fear thesis and the
functional thesis. In the following I will present a critical review of these theses.

Four central theses in the history of Roman Divination

The historical thesis

This thesis stipulates that historical contingencies explain the existence of divination. For
example Warde-Fowler believed that divination owes its existence to a civic adaptation of an
agricultural practice of predicting the weather. Another more prevalent scheme is the
evolutionist. Here divination is explained as a survival from an earlier stage of culture. This
can be seen in Krauss and Bayet. A third prevalent historical explanation is that Roman
divination is somehow influenced by the Greeks or the Etruscans (Bloch and Latte). Often
the introduction of Greek philosophy is the central causal factor of manipulation in late
republican times (Taylor, Latte).

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 The problem with these historical explanations is that in so far as they explain anything,
they are merely correlational. They take two co-occurring events, e.g. the introduction of
Greek philosophy (A) and disbelief in divination (B) 98 , and consider this an explanation. If
you want to explain a correlation between A (say introduction of Greek philosophy) and B
(disbelief in divination), there are four options to consider: either 1) A causes B, or 2) B
causes A, or 3) some other factor, C, causes A and B, or 4)there is no causal relationship
between A and B. None have bothered to investigate these possibilities systematically. Let us
assume for a moment that there is a causal relationship between A and B. It might then be
that a decline in belief in divination made the Romans more susceptible to Greek philosophy
(relation 2), or maybe a great admiration of everything Greek (the Greeks did not use
divination to the same extent as the Romans) produced both introduction of Greek
philosophy and disbelief in divination (relation 3).
Historical explanations of the form reviewed here also lack a theory of why some historical
events have an effect on culture change and others do not. The only stipulated mechanism is
conservatism. People simply continue doing what their predecessors have done. But
sometimes they apparently change. Why did they change this time and not some other? If we
take the example of Greek philosophy, we know that there were cultural interaction between
the Romans and the Greeks already from the 6th century or earlier BCE (Beard, North, &
Price 1998: I, 12). Why did Greek philosophy only make an impact in the 3rd century BCE
when the Romans must have known of it for centuries? In order to use history as an
explanation of culture change or persistence, it is necessary to give an account of why some
historical events have an impact and others don't.
It could be said that contingencies are not proper explanations, but descriptions, because
they are merely based on correlation.

The formalist thesis

A large number of scholars have assumed that divination rituals are mere formalisms to
which the Romans did not attach any belief in the gods (Bouché-Leclercq, Warde-Fowler,
Bloch, Dumezil, Taylor, and Latte). First of all, it is necessary to notice the strongly
protestant bias in the focus on belief to the detriment of ritual inherent in this thesis (Durand

98
Since recent research has shown that the foremost exponent of Greek philosophy, Cicero, took divination
very seriously (Beard 1986; Guillaumont 1984; Linderski 1995: passim), there is no reason to suggest that
reading Greek philosophy created a sceptic attitude in general.

131
& Scheid 1994; Linder & Scheid 1993; Lisdorf 2005b; Scheid 2005; Smith 1990). Second, it
is worth noting that nothing in the sources seems to indicate that there was any general
disbelief in the efficacy of divination or any other rituals (Beard, North, & Price 1998: I,
126). What seems to be the problem is a misreading of the sources. There are stories about
magistrates and others who manipulate or disregard proper ritual action, but these stories do
not at all show skepticism towards divination. All "anti-ritualist" protagonists face a grim
end, usually death in a military defeat. That would suggest that the Romans saw rituals as
quite important.
Other scholars who have done research on sortition have showed a more fruitful way of
conceptualizing divination rituals. They have stipulated that chance is a crucial component in
how the Romans believed their gods to communicate. Champeaux, for example, calls chance
the language of the gods. While I do not believe she has explained the relation between
chance and the gods by calling it the language of the gods, I agree that a technique involving
chance is a necessary precondition for representing the extraction of credible information
from the gods in divination (see chapter 4).

The fear thesis

This is probably the most common thesis, going back to Livy. The central tenet of the fear
thesis is that fear is the cause, in one way or another, of divination. Sometimes fear is calmed
through divination techniques (Liebeschuetz, Gladigow, Rosenberger), but most often fear is
produced by crises (Krauss, Bloch, Dumezil, Gladigow, and Rosenberger). By far the most
frequent empirical observation to substantiate this claim is the handling of prodigies.
The basic logic is that crises, such as wars, produce fear in the population 99 , which
produces a high number of prodigy reports, since the population is reporting prodigies to the
senate. This would qualify as an explanation, because it stipulates some causal mechanism.
Fortunately this is a theory which can be checked more rigorously against the historical
record, since we have reasonably good evidence of the number of prodigies accepted per
year 100 and good evidence of the number of wars or other critical events per year in the
period between 218-44 BCE. It is therefore possible to test the thesis empirically.

99
It should be mentioned that some versions of the fear thesis stipulate that the cause was individual fear
without any apparent outer reason (Kraus, Dumezil, and Gladigow), but there is no way we can test this. It
therefore remains a possibility, but should be considered speculation.
100
For a more thorough treatment of prodigies and the sources for the prodigy records see chapter
10.

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 Whereas information about the number of prodigies reported per year is relatively
straightforward (see appendix 5), we need to operationalize the degree of crisis. Such a
measure will never be precise, but we should still be able to see some rough correlation
between degree of crisis and number of reported prodigies. A crisis index was devised
according to which every year was assigned a value 101 (se Table 7.1.):

0 - No perception of risk to Rome and her army

1 - Minor problems; for example rebellion in a remote region, or minor casualties in the
Roman army
2 – Larger problems; for example limited military confrontations outside Italy, and some
casualties in the Roman army
3 – Major problems; major military confrontations outside Italy; substantial casualties
4 – Serious problems; the enemy is in Italy or at its borders; Consuls killed or entire armies
(the size of a legion or more) lost in battle
5 – Acute problems; Rome is facing its demise, the city itself is threatened with capture (or
perceived to be so), an unsustainable level of casualties in the Roman army.

Table 7.1. Crisis index

Other things could be seen as the reason for crisis, most notably disease. The problem is
that our sources speak of disease in general, and rarely gives us concrete historical
information (Sallares 1996). Livy does occasionally inform us of plagues, but it is not clear in
all cases how widespread they were.
In order to have a fix-point, the chronological table in the Cambridge Ancient History Vol.
VIII (page 524-541) and IX (780-798) served as the basis from which values for each year
was assigned. Further, in order not to let theoretical preconceptions influence the individual
ratings, values were assigned to each year before the count of prodigies per year was done.
Thus we end up with a list of paired values. For each reporting year we have a value
designating the degree of crisis and another designating the number of prodigies. To visualize
the relation, a bubble plot was made. The size of the bubbles indicates the degree of crisis for

101
The index was devised by me, but was discussed with PhD Ittai Gradel, University of Reading, whom I
thank for many fruitful suggestions and improvements. Any infelicities are naturally my responsibility.

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the observation. If the fear thesis was right we would expect big bubbles and no small ones at
the top and small bubbles and no big ones at the bottom. The results can be seen in fig.7.1.

Relation between Degree of Crisis and Number of Prodigies

20

15
Number of prodigies

10

200 150 100 50

Years

Degree of Crisis

Figure 7.1. Relation between degree of crisis and number of prodigies

Around the Punic war (from 218-202 BCE onwards) there are indeed some big bubbles at
the top as expected, but around 80-100 the big bubbles are at the bottom and the small ones at
the top. We can see that there does not seem to be any big temporal difference, such as big
bubbles at one end only, or high number of prodigies at one point. The fear thesis stipulates
that there is a correlation between these two values, whereas the null-hypothesis is that there
is none. We can investigate this statistically.

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 A box-plot was made and revealed the presence of four outliers. The first was from 217,
which was at the height of the 2nd Punic war, probably the greatest war in late republican
memory. The only source for this is Livy. He sometimes uses prodigies to dramatize events
in general (Levene 1993: 84-85). It is possible that he has here collapsed the prodigy lists for
two years into one (Levene 1993: 38). The second observation is from 44. The explanation
here is analogous. 44 was the year where Caesar was killed. Here we have more sources, but
they also seem to dramatize by listing a greater number of prodigies, where some on closer
inspection more stringently could be called omina. As we shall see in chapter 10, omina were
directed towards private persons and not the state as prodigia were. There is therefore reason
to doubt that most of the prodigies for the year 44 are prodigia in the technical sence, that is,
in the same sense as the other prodigies in this investigation. The third observation stems
from the year 104, where a serious attack of the Cimbri on North Italy took place at the same
time as the second Sicilian slave war. It could therefore follow the pattern in Livy, where
especially important events are dramatized with higher amount of prodigies by collapsing
two years and integrating counting omina as prodigies. Unfortunately we don’t have Livy’s
history for this period, only the summary of Julius Obsequens. 102 Therefore we cannot
investigate this in detail. The last observation is from the year 163, where, as far as we can
see, nothing critical happened at all. Nevertheless 17 prodigies were reported. Unfortunately
again we only have the prodigy lists from Julius Obsequens, so we cannot determine whether
it is attributed to any dramatizing effect, but it can be seen that the prodigy lists from the
previous year are missing. Consequently, it is probable, either by purpose or mistake, that the
lists from 164 and 163 were collapsed into one. These four outliers were eliminated from the
data, since they were likely to skew the trend in the data.
The correlation coefficient for the trimmed data was 0,173 (r squared was 0,020), which is
not a very good correlation. 103 A linear regression analysis was made with degree of crisis as
the independent variable and number of prodigies as the dependent variable. This did not
reveal any significant relationship between degree of crisis and number of prodigies F(1,102)
= 3,151, P= 0.079. 104 Other regression models were tried, but the best fit was provided by the
linear regression. There is however a slight trend towards correlation.

102
Julius Obsequens was an historian who extracted the prodigy lists and other portentuous events from Livy
and made them into a separate work (Schmidt 1968)
103
For the untrimmed data r= 0.18 and r squared= 0.025.
104
The result for the untrimmed data was F(1,106)= 3.730, p= 0.056. This is actually slightly better than the
trimmed data, but still not significant.

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 Based on the evidence available to us, the null-hypothesis cannot be rejected. Still we
cannot say that fear can explain the number of prodigies reported in the Roman Republic in
the period from 218-44 BCE. This period forms the bulk of our evidence of prodigies in the
Roman republic. Previous theories explaining divination with recourse to fear, what I have
called the fear thesis, is not consistent with the findings presented here. It should however be
borne in mind that there are important uncertainties tied to the quantification of the number
of prodigies and the degree of crisis and individual observations may be contended. The trend
however, is reasonably clear. It should also be noted that I am not the first to reject this
thesis. Also Rasmussen rejects the fear thesis, because it is entirely based on “a very few
vague passages from Livy taken from the period around the Second Punic War” (Rasmussen
2003:29). The quantitative analysis presented her thus yields the same result.

The functional thesis

The functional thesis has two different forms. The most common is the manipulation thesis,
and the other is the social functionalist thesis. Both explain divination by reference to its
function. The problem with these explanations is that, like the historical explanations, they
argue from a correlation between a mechanism (divination) and a stipulated effect (political
influence, social cohesion, calming of fear). No reason is given why precisely this
mechanism should cause that effect. The effect might be spurious. Neither is there any
demonstration that the absence of the mechanism entailed the absence of the effect. In most
cases it is impossible to measure the effect. How do we measure social cohesion? How do we
measure how much fear was calmed? No one has provided anything but vague formulations.
The general picture is therefore that we are left without any specification of how the
mechanism produces the effect, and also without any way to measure the effect. As long as
this is the case, the functional thesis remains speculation (cf. Penner 1989).
There is one instance, though, where it is possible to test the functionalist thesis. That is the
assumption that the expiatory rituals performed in response to the prodigies, called
procurationes in Latin, had the function of calming the fear. It would then be reasonable to
assume that, when fear was high, there would be more fear to calm and hence more

136
expiations. By using the same crisis index as above in the section on the fear thesis and
counting the numbers of expiations 105 mentioned it is possible to test the assumption.

Relation between Procurationes and Degree of Crisis

10

8
Procurationes

200 150 100 50

Year
Degree of Crisis

Figure 7.2. Relation between expiations and degree of crisis

A bubble plot gives us an overview (see fig. 7.2). We should expect big bubbles to be at the
top and small bubbles at the bottom. It can be seen that the period of the Punic war shows all
different combinations: many expiations and high degree crisis, and only a few expiations
and a high degree of crisis. We also find a high degree of crisis but only few expiations.
There does not seem to be any correlation.

105
It should be mentioned that the number of expiations are not given by our sources as conscientiously as the
number of prodigies. We have several years where none are mentioned. Further it should be mentioned that
for the years from 166-66 BCE our main source is Julius Obsequens, who did not seem to have taken a
special interest in expiations. He rarely mentions more than a few. In light of this, caution should be given to
the interpretation of the results.

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 To investigate this statistically a box plot was made. It revealed two outliers from 218 (12
expiations) and 217 (10 expiations), but since these were extreme times a high number is to
be expected. There is thus no reason to remove them from the data. The correlation
coefficient was 0,199 (adjusted R square 0,027). This is close to a random distribution. A
linear regression analysis was made with degree of crisis as the independent variable and
number of expiations as the dependent variable which didn't yield any significant relation
(F(1,77)= 3.163, P=0.079). To be fair we could say that there is a trend. This trend may,
however, just as well be attributed to the dramatic effect. If for example we removed the
extreme observations from 218 and 217 in which the expiations play a central role for Livy in
evoking the fear caused by Hannibal in Italy, the F value drops dramatically to
F(1,75)=0.000, P=0.985, which is random. It does not therefore seem reasonable to conclude
that there is any causal relation between crisis and number of expiations except in 218 and
217. It seems that, in so far as it can be submitted to empirical tests, the predictions one
would expect of the functional thesis do not fit the empirical findings accurately.

Summary
This critical review has revealed review that all previous explanations of the existence of
divination in the Roman Republic have serious flaws. We saw that it was possible to
distinguish four theses that had been offered in previous research to explain Roman
divination. The historical thesis does not on closer inspection qualify as an explanation,
because it merely demonstrates a correlation between events without supplying any evidence
of a causal relation. The formalist thesis is based on a misreading of the sources. The fear
thesis likewise has problems with the empirical level since it does not agree well with the
predictions of the theory. The functional thesis has the same sort of problem as the historical
thesis because it reverts to a correlational account, where it is not possible to isolate the
causes and effects. In the only case where it was possible to test its predictions empirically, it
could not account for the results. It is therefore possible to conclude that all previous attempts
to explain the existence of divination in Roman republican times have failed.

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Chapter 8 - Sources to Roman Divination
Before we proceed with a detailed investigation of divination in republican Rome, we need to
briefly review the most important sources. The sources to Roman divination are very diverse.
A reasonable picture can only be constructed by piecing together many different kinds of
sources, each with their own history and problems. It is beyond the limits of this thesis to go
in to the detailed historical criticism of all sources used. Indeed just working out the sources
behind for example Valerius Maximus would take a doctoral thesis in itself. In this chapter I
will therefore go through the most important observations about the most important sources
for divination. Space allows us only briefly to consider the most general characteristics of
different writers. The selection is not complete, but based on an assessment of which sources
are most important for the subsequent treatment.

Republican writers

Titus Maccius Plautus (c.250-184 BCE)

Plautus was born in Umbria, probably of humble origin. His plays are adaptations of Greek
new comedy and most often set in Greece. In practice they were completely reworked to fit
Roman culture. Roman comedy differed from Greek comedy in that Roman comedy was
mostly performed for the masses and the audience was much more socially diverse. This
makes Plautus’ plays a unique window into how Romans, especially ordinary people, thought
at his time. He gives us a good indication of the implicit assumptions and explicit knowledge
of the average Roman.

Marcus Terrentius Varro (116-27 BCE)

Varro was an antiquarian collector of facts. He collected from all the sources he could get
hold of, frequently archaic documents. His production was immense, but unfortunately only
two works are still extant: De re rustica, De lingua latina. Already in antiquity he had a great
reputation as a scholar and was subsequently known as the wisest of all. Many fragments of
his works are therefore scattered in later authors. He knew a great deal about religion and
wrote a large work on the subject, Res divina, parts of which are known through Augustine’s

139
criticism of it. His antiquarian curiosity and his knowledge of religion make him a good
source for details about the history of divination.

Marcus Tullius Cicero (106-43 BCE)

One of the absolute central sources for Roman divination is Cicero. Cicero became an augur
in 53 or 52 (Linderski 1995: 13). The augurs were the central authorities on Roman
divination in general and they produced authoritative rulings on questions of divination
(Linderski 1986: 2154-2189). They therefore had a large body of commentaries and books on
divination to which Cicero had access. Cicero was nominated augur late in his life. This is the
reason why the technical details of divination can only be found in his late authorship. Other
parts of Cicero’s authorship are equally important, although in a different way. His speeches
are good indications of how people thought at his time because they were public orations
meant to convince a living audience of something (Guillaumont 1984: 38f). Only through
working from very common assumptions is it possible to convince someone. They can
therefore give good clues to implicit assumptions about divination and omens.
A special note should be made concerning the De divinatione. This is probably the most
central single source for divination. It is staged as a dialogue between Cicero’s brother,
Quintus, who produces a stoic argument for the efficacy of divination in book one and
himself, Marcus, who responds by giving a skeptical refutation of the argument of Quintus in
book two 106 (Beard 1986; Guillaumont 1984: 9; Schofield 1986). The first book is a
reasonably good exposition of common attitudes among the educated Roman elite. The
second book does not prove that Cicero did not believe in divination, as most scholars have
maintained. It is an exercise in counter-argument, characteristic of the Academic school of
philosophy (Beard 1986: 34), and an argument against a rival augural theory current at the
time of Cicero (Linderski 1982: 31). Cicero’s own attitude to divination can more clearly be
seen in De legibus, in which he admits the necessity of public forms of divination
(Cic.Leg.2.31). According to Cicero divination assured that the laws of the Roman Republic
were in accordance with nature (Linderski 1982)
Cicero is consequently an authoritative source for technical augural details in the late part
of his authorship, and also a good source for general attitudes towards divination and omens.

106
From a letter to his brother from 54 BCE it can be seen that Cicero originally wanted to stage the dialogue
in 129 BCE as taking place between Scipio and Laelius (Beard 1986: 39).

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Dionysius Hallicarnassus (60 BCE- 7 BCE)
Dionysius of Hallicarnassus was a Greek historian living in Rome at the end of the 1st century
BCE. He wrote a history of early Rome, of which only the first books are still extant. He built
on the early Roman annalists and frequently gives us references to contemporary life. His
work is a useful source for early historical data, but is not a good source for technical details.

Titus Livius (59 BCE-17 CE)

Another central source is Livy’s Ab urbe condita, which is a history of Rome from its
foundation until his own time. Unfortunately, not all books are extant. For those books
missing we have a good source for the prodigies in Julius Obsequens’ epitome (cf. Schmidt
1968) and we also have some medieval summaries, periochae, which, unfortunately, are not
very precise or informative. It is generally accepted that Livy did not consult any primary
sources, such as monuments, annals or books himself. Rather, he wrote his history on the
basis of a small number of previous historians and annalists (Walsh 1961). These previous
historians, such as Valerius Antias and Claudius Quadrigarius, were well informed for
example about the contents of the Annales Maximi (Ogilvie 1965: 12-16; Szemler 1972: 17-
19; Walsh 1961: 120-122). The Annales Maximi were the official records of the Roman state.
They are probably the earliest written Roman history and were probably made public in the
end of the 2nd century BCE (Gross 1933). Through Livy and his intermediaries we therefore
have access to relatively solid historical information from at least the 5th century and
onwards.
There is, however, one caveat: since it is only the typically annalistic information, and
maybe a few stories, we can trust from the very early times, we should not take everything
Livy writes for historical truth. When for example we encounter a speech of Cincinnatus we
should not think that this is in any way based on historical fact. This caveat applies to all
speeches in Livy, which tend to say more about his own times than the history they portray.
In distinction to reported speeches, the information that someone had been consul and
abdicated because of a ritual fault in the auspices can probably be trusted, since it is this type
of information that would have been recorded in the official annals. When we come down to
where the extant books of Livy start again, in the 3rd century, the historical narratives are
fuller and more trustworthy since here Livy had access to historians who were contemporary
or close in time to the events related (Cornell 1995: 6).

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Post-republican writers

Verrius Flacchus
Verrius Flacchus was a freedman. He was widely considered the most learned scholar of his
age and was the tutor of Augustus’ grandsons (Dihle 1994: 1637). His approach was
antiquarian, which can be seen in his most famous work De verborum significatu. This work
built on early republican grammarians and antiquarians (Dihle 1994: 1640). It is
unfortunately lost, but an abridged version by Sextus Pompeius Festus from the 2nd century
CE exists. This is unfortunately only known in one manuscript which was burnt at one point.
Consequently some pages are severely fragmented. We also posses an abridgement of Festus’
work by Paulus Diaconus plus references to it in Servius (Dihle 1994: 1641-1643). Here I
will use the edition by Lindsay which contains the work by Festus as well as the abridgment
of Paulus Diaconus. Festus is widely regarded as a quarry of information on technicalities of
Republican religion and will therefore play a central role. We also possess fragments from
Verrius Flacchus through other authors like Aulus Gellius (e.g. Gel.4.5.6).

Aulus Gellius (130-180 CE)

Aulus Gellius’ work Noctes Atticae is a rearrangement of material that he gathered on a wide
variety of subjects. The value of this work lies in the fact that it has a lot of antiquarian
material which is no longer extant, primarily from late Republican and Augustan times
(Stevenson 2004). The advantage of this source relative to other sources referring to the
Roman antiquarians is that Gellius uses the references, most often to Varro, as the substance
of his work, not just as illustrations (Stevenson 2004: 122). This makes it a valuable source of
antiquarian information that can give us information about events far back in time.

Valerius Maximus
Valerius Maximus lived in the early first century CE. Apart from this, almost nothing is
known about him. He wrote a collection on memorable deeds and sayings, Facta et dicta
memorabilia, collected from the works that were available to him. We can see that he has
used either directly or by way of a common source, Valerius Antias, Coelius and Cicero
(Bosch 1929: 110). What makes it a good source for our purposes is that religion and ritual

142
played a big part in it, and there are many stories about proper and improper religious
behavior. This gives us a good indication of how divination was conceptualized in the early
principate, but also earlier since some of the sources that Valerius Maximus builds on are
republican. When we are able to test his use of these earlier sources he seems to follow them
relatively closely, although he is not as detailed and technical in his account (Mueller 2002:
111). Therefore some potentially useful information can be extracted from Valerius
Maximus’ work.

Gaius Tranquilius Suetonius (c.70 CE - )

While Suetonius is much distrusted in some circles and regarded as primarily drawn towards
gossip, he does, however, have one great advantage: he had access to imperial archives,
which would have had all relevant historical records. Therefore, in certain cases Suetonius
can throw light on some historical events, not known from other sources.

Seneca (4 BCE – 65 CE)

Seneca was educated in Rome and most famous as the tutor of Nero. He is used mainly as a
source for knowledge of haruspicy. In his play Oedipus, he describes a haruspex inspecting
the entrails of a sacrificial victim. In this source we can see what sort of things would be
understood by the audience, that is, what a Roman audience in general would know about
extispicy. While this is later than republican times, extispicy was one of the divination
practices that seem to have remained unchanged from the republic to the principate.

Gaius Plinius Secundus (23BCE - 79CE)

Although Pliny mostly used secondary sources and his work seems to be organized according
to inconsistent principles, it can sometimes be useful (Köves-Zulauf 1978: 227). He often
includes valuable information on details of Roman religion based on scholars such as, Varro,
Valerius Flacchus and annalistic sources that are not otherwise known to us (Köves-Zulauf
1978: 229-243). He is also known to have used commentarii on omens by one C. Epidius
(Plin.Nat.17.243) and a work on Etruscan divination by Umbricius Melior (Plin.Nat.10.19),
who was the chief haruspex of the emperor Galba (Köves-Zulauf 1978: 245f). Pliny therefore
is likely to be able to supply important technical details of republican divination.

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M. Servius Honoratus
Marius Servius Honoratus was a Latin grammarian active around 400 CE. He was widely
recognized as an extremely knowledgeable man at his time (Keune 1990). His most famous
work is his commentaries to Virgil. As he was a grammarian, most comments are on
grammatical issues, but some are also on the meanings of the words. The world of ideas of
the Ancient Romans must have been quite strange to someone living in the 5th century CE. In
explicating these strange ideas Servius used works which are now lost. This makes Servius a
valuable resource for certain technical details, since these were probably the most
incomprehensible at his time. Through Servius we can sometimes get access to the lost
sources like Varro or Verrius Flacchus.

Scholia
Scholia are commentaries compiled from ancient to medieval times to the ancient literature.
Since they sometimes had access to works now lost, every now and then they can give us
useful information.

Material sources: inscriptions, archaeological remains.

Every now and then, though unfortunately much too rarely, we are able to connect our
literary sources with material remains, be it material used for divination, sculptures, or
pictures of proceedings of divination or inscriptions. They are the best sources we have since
they give us a more direct access to the historical reality.

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Chapter 9 - Signa impetrativa

In this chapter we will review all known impetrative divination practices in Roman
republican times. They can be grouped into five types: auspices, sortition, extispicy, Sibylline
books and miscellaneous. They all have subgroups of different practices.

Auspices
Auspices are in principle the observation of birds, but also more generally animals or the sky.
There are several different sub-types labeled augurium, auspicium, auspicium ex tripudio and
various other types.

Augurium
Augurium, or more often inauguratio, is a special case of auspicium used by augurs to
inaugurate objects, persons or places. The technique is observation of the behavior of birds
by an augur.

Technique The only persons able to perform an inauguratio were inaugurated members of
the augural college, that is, augurs (Catalano 1960: 220-246). The purposes of the
inauguratio could differ. It is possible to distinguish between the inauguration of ceremonies,
persons and places (Linderski 1986: 2222). We do not know much about the inauguration of
ceremonies, as only a few are known. 107 We do, however, know that the augur had to be
present at the ceremony (Gel.4.6.10). The inauguration of a person to a priesthood required a
nomination 108 and the presence of the nominee and the augur. 109 When a place was to be
inaugurated, many other rituals had to be performed as well. 110

107
The augurium or sacrificium canarium, the augurium salutis the feriae pracidanea and a few others (cf.
Catalano 1960: 335-356)
108
The precise formalities differed for the different priesthoods, some used cooption some voting and others
sortition. These procedures also changed during republican times. For a good overview of the different
priesthoods, see (Beard 1990). For the Flamens see (Vanggaard 1988)
109
It is possible that all public priests were inaugurated, but we know for sure that the following were:
Flamen Dialis, Flamen Divi Iulii, Flamen Martialis, Flamen Quirinalis, Rex Sacrorum, the Pontifices, the
Augures and the Salii (Catalano 1960: 212)
110
This is referred to as liberare and effare (e.g. Cic.Leg.2.8.21). This entailed sacrifices, invocations, and
prayers. For a thorough treatment of the details of these ritual actions, see (Catalano 1960: 281-291; Valeton
1892).

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 The only full description we have of an inauguration is that of persons. A text in Livy
purports to describe the ritual inauguration of king Numa (Liv.1.18.6-10). 111 This text is
generally taken to reflect the inauguration of priests in republican times (Linderski 1986:
2256f). It took place at the arx on the Capitol mount in a place called the auguraculum. 112
Other such auguracula are known from other Italian cities.113 They seem to be a parallel to
the temporary tabernaculum used by the magistrate in the field for taking the auspices. The
primary difference is that the auguraculum is permanent.
The augur performing the inauguration was forbidden to have any sores on his body
(Plut.Quaest. Rom. 73). 114 He officiated, capite velato, with his head veiled (Liv.1.18.7;
Dion.Hal.Ant.Rom.2.5) 115 , and wore the toga praetexta 116 or trabea 117 (cf. Linderski 1986:
2251, n.412). The ceremony probably started with a prayer (precatio). 118 The inaugurandus
(the person who is the object of the ceremony) sat on a rock facing south, while the augur
was beside him to the left facing east. 119 The augur took his staff (lituus) with his right hand
and demarcated his field of view (locus designatus in aere) while uttering a ritual formula. 120
This field seems to have been demarcated by objects visible in the landscape such as trees
(cf. Var.L.7.8.) and in the city probably from the arx to the pomerium. 121 The field probably

111
This text is probably a narativization of an original formula which contained the words to be spoken and
instructions for the participants (Linderski 1986: 2257).
112
The arx was a fort and the auguraculum was situated in the open space on the North East corner of the arx
Capitol. Another one on the Quirinal is also known (Linderski 1986: 2277, n.518; Platner & Ashby 1929: 61).
113
The most fully described are those in Bantia and Iguvium (Linderski 1986: 2258).
114
This is a general prohibition which applied to all priests (Beard 1990; Wissowa 1912: 491)
115
This signaled that it was a traditional Roman rite (Scheid 2005: 21-57). There is nevertheless a passage in
Festus which can be read to claim that augurs officiated capite aperto, with open head (Fest. 462 L). That
would signify the opposite that it was according to the Greek rite. The passage is very fragmented and this
reading builds on partial reconstructions of Lindsay. He follows Mommsen, who reconstructed the entire
passage. The entire reconstruction, however, makes it clear that the augur officiating capite aperto, did so as
an exception due to his familiaria sacra. That would make sense. Nevertheless the passage is so damaged
and the words capite aperto do not appear at all, so it is better not to conclude anything based on this alone.
116
A toga with a purple stripe worn by curule magistrates (Cic.Red. Sen.5.12.) and some priests (Liv.27.8.8)
(cf. Helm 1953).
117
It was a special kind of toga found in different varieties related to the gods and kingship. The one used by
augurs had scarlet stripes and purple hem (Serv.A.7.612) (cf. Schuppe 1896).
118
Livy does not mention it in the beginning, but, as Linderski has argued, it is not likely that there would be
prayers in the middle of the auspication as Livy’s text has it (Linderski 1986: 2279f). Servius, who was not
however the most precise concerning augural details, also places the prayers before the actual auspication
(Serv.A.9.24) Examples of such augural prayers can be seen in Fest. 476 L.
119
There has been great debate over the exact orientations and whether Livy had misunderstood it. It is not
possible to say for sure, but I find Linderski’s argument the most convincing and coherent (Linderski 1986:
2257-2261, 2280-2289). According to this, Livy has got the orientation right.
120
Probably similar to the one mentioned by Varro (Var.L.7.8).
121
Different opinions exist about whether this is a templum in caelo, which was also used for the observation
of lightning (Catalano 1978; Linderski 1986: 2269-2274; Valeton 1889: 228f). What is important here is not
the actual orientation but the fact that a field in which signs are looked for is marked out in advance.

146
formed a half-circle going from the South to the North. Possibly the field may have been
further sub-divided into a lower and higher part by the limit of the city wall, the pomerium
(Valeton 1890: 246-248). The augur then put the lituus in his left hand and his right hand on
the head of the inaugurandus. He asked if Jupiter approved of the inaugurandus, in which
case he should send positive signs within the formerly delimited area. Some birds gave
positive or negative signs depending on which side of the field of vision they appeared on.
For example a picus (woodpecker) and cornix (crow) in the left field were good or
“admitting” birds and likewise a corvus (raven) and parra (screech-owl) in the right
(Pl.As.259-261; Cic.Div.1.12). The cries of birds, like that of the owls called bubo and noctua
were always bad signs. When a positive sign had been observed the inaugurandus was
declared a specific kind of priest, he was to be, and stepped down.

Ritualization The ritualization is established through the action of asking a question and
then marking a field in the air in which birds are observed. Depending on their position and
kind, they give an answer to the question. No one is controlling the birds to give the answers
and the birds themselves do not speak or qualify as intentional agents. This produces a
deficiency in the intentional structure of the action. It is repaired through the context in which
the birds are taken as answers from a hidden agent: Jupiter.

Direct prestige Since only the augurs could perform the inauguratio, it is relatively easy to
asses the prestige of the operator. The augural college was the second most prestigious
priesthood. The known members of the college also held the highest political offices
(Szemler 1978: 2326; Szemler 1972: 184-186). Another interesting observation is that augurs
could not have any physical abnormalities. This was one of the empirical markers of
prestigious individuals that we found above. Further they are male and comparatively old,
which are other markers of prestige. The same is the case for all public priesthoods (Beard
1990).

Indirect prestige The associated counterintuitive agent is Iupiter Optimus Maximus

(Cic.Phil.13.12; Leg.2.20). 122 This can be seen explicitly in the text by Livy treated above,
where the augur addresses Jupiter directly (Liv.1.18.9), and from the fact that the augurs are
122
For sources and discussion see (Catalano 1960: 155; Linderski 1986: 2226f; Mommsen 1952: I, 77, n.2;
Wissowa 1912: 119).

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called interpretes Iovi, interpreters of Jupiter, and the augural birds are called internuntiae
Iovi, messengers of Jupiter (Plin.Nat.10.110, Ov.Fast.1.446-448).

Utility and Credibility value The inauguratio was used to permanently change the
religious/juridical status of a ceremony, person or place (Linderski 1986: 2296). The
inauguratio of a ceremony made it valid. The inauguration of a person turned him into that
specific kind of priest. This changed the properties of the person into a person with the ability
to act as a priest of that college. The inauguration of a place turned it into a templum, which
changed the properties of the place into one in which a magistrate could take the auspices and
the senate have meetings.
It is difficult to asses the credibility value since no actions were taken directly on the basis
of it. The inauguratio only provided an answer as to whether the ceremony, person or place
should change status. It could be argued that the credibility value indirectly was high since
these changes were at the bottom of the Roman society: if the senate met it was very
important that it was in a templum. Likewise, when a magistrate took the auspices before
carrying through legislation, it was also in a templum. If these were not templa, it would
constitute a severe ritual fault (vitium), which, in the Roman culture was thought to lead to
disasters and calamities. 123

History In the tradition, augurium can be traced to Romulus who was the first augur when
he founded Rome. While this is legend, we can still asses the history of the practice based on
a few other clues.
1) Comparable practices are known among Oscan and Umbrian people in Italy. This can be
seen from the archaeological finds in Bantia and Iguvium (Catalano 1978: 471), which were
Oscan and Umbrian towns respectively. Since Oscan and Umbrian are the two Italic
languages closest to Latin it is possible that the roots are very old and common for Italic
peoples. It must be older than the Etruscan influence. This means that it could precede the
establishment of Rome.

123
We will return to this relation in the treatment of the cultural model for omens in chapter 10. An interesting
example of how important it was whether or not a place was a templum is the case of Cicero’s house. While
he was exiled, his house had allegedly been dedicated to the goddess Libertas. In an hour long speech he
argued for ritual faults in the dedication, which would make it not a templum. That would mean that he could
get it back (cf. Lisdorf 2005b).

148
2) A text by Varro reproduces an ancient document 124 that mentions ager gabinum as a
separate augural category. 125 Gabii was a city close to Rome. In late republican times it was
deserted. Its significance lay in the battle of Gabii, which, according to traditional annalistic
dating, took place around 468. The peace treaty, foedus gabinum, is supposed to have existed
in late republican times (Catalano 1978: 494). Roman annalistic dating is not precise, but a
date in the 6th century BCE is quite likely. It seems likely that the document Varro mentions
would have been produced in a situation were the relation with Gabii was of primary political
interest. This would establish the existence of the Roman augural art at least as early as the
6th century.
It therefore seems highly likely that the Roman augurium was solidly established in the 6th
century BCE, and possibly even in pre-historical times.

Cultural model The inauguratio is conceptualized as a dialogue with Iuppiter Optimus

Maximus, whose approval was sought when appointing new priests or making new templa.
The birds were his messengers and the augurs his interpreters.

Auspicium
The auspicium ex caelo or ex avibus is one of the most central techniques in Roman public
divination. It is based on watching the sky, either for lightning or birds respectively. The
auspicium is confined to official magistrates who intend to perform some important action.
Thus, while the augurs use a similar technique, the effect and utility is different for the
auspices of the magistrates.

Technique The auspices must be taken by a magistrate before the action he intends to carry
out (Linderski 1986: 2296). The auspicium had to be taken after midnight during the night
(Gel.3.2.10, Liv.10.40.) before the day in which the intended action was to take place. It also
had to be taken at the place in which the action was intended. For example, in the case of
senate meetings, the auspicium had to take place at the senate house (cf. Wissowa 1896:
2585).

124
The unfortunately corrupt version which we have in the manuscripts show clear signs of very old Latin
language (Linderski 1986: 2267-2279)
125
Mommsen takes the city of Gabii as a synonym of any Italian town (Catalano 1978: 494), but that does not
seem convincing (Catalano 1978: 494).

149
 All places where auspices should be taken had to be templa (Wissowa 1896: 2586). Many
places in the city were already templa and nothing further had to be done. If the auspices had
to be taken outside the city, for example on a military campaign, a templum had to be made
(Liv.10.40). This is sometimes referred to as templum minus and was established by a ritual
formula (certis verbis) (Fest.146 L). While doing this the magistrate delineated the region of
the sky (templum aereum), in which he would look for signs. He most likely did it with a
staff (virga) similar, but not identical, to the augurs’ (Valeton 1890: 259f).
On this spot a tent, the auguraculum, was erected to serve as the point from which the
auspicium wo0uld take place. It had corners of spades or javelins and walls of linen, skin or
plates with an open door (Serv.A.4.200, Fest.146 L). It was most likely oriented towards the
East (Dion.Hal.Ant.Rom.2.5.) (cf. Linderski 1986: 2280-2289). In this tent the magistrate or
his assistant was sitting on a seat, called solida sella (Fest.470 L). Then a formulaic exchange
of words occurred between the magistrate and his assistant. The assistant originally could
have been any experienced (peritus) person and did not need to be an augur
(Cic.Div.2.71). 126 Eventually this function was taken over by an official, a pullarius.
The magistrate then asked: "dicito, [si] silentium esse videbitur". The assistant was
supposed to keep looking straight ahead and answer that he thought there was silentio 127
(Cic.Div.2.71). Then some sort of prayers were offered, and the auspicant was expected to sit,
or stand completely still, until he received a sign (Serv.A.9.4).
It is not always completely clear what sort of sign was meant. It is either lightning or birds.
If it was birds (ex avibus) then the signs came either from their flight or song. Birds, whose
song was used as a sign, were called oscines; they were: corvus (raven), cornix (crow),
noctua (night owl), parra (screech owl) and picus (woodpecker) (Fest.214 L). From another
group of birds, the flight was used. They were called alites. They were: buteo (falcon or
hawk), sanqualis (osprey), aquila (eagle), inmusulus (vulture or falcon), vulturius (vulture)
and some also had the parra (Fest.214 L, Sen.Q Nat.2.32.5). It is also known that the side in
which they were observed was of importance (Cic.Div.1.85; Pl.As. 2.1.12). The actions of

126
It is possible that this rule applied to private auspices.
127
The expression silentio surgere is also known through Festus (Fest.474 , 476 L). It was a technical
expression. At the face of it is odd that the assistant "sees" (videbitur) whether there is silence. Silentio is
described by Cicero (Div.2.72) and Festus (476 L) as the absence of vitium (ritual fault) (Cf. Mommsen 1952:
I, 86, n.1). An example of breaking this silentio could be that something fell inside the templum, called
caduca auspicia (Fest.56 L), or a noise (Fest.266 L).

150
these birds were supposed to give an indication of whether the intended action should be
carried out or not.
If the sign was lightning (ex caelo) the sign would also be indicative of whether it was
positive or negative. Cicero writes that lightning from the left side was the best sign, except
when it was concerning an assembly (comitium) (Cic.Div.2.74). An instance of the sign of the
auspicium de caelo being thunder comes from Dionysius Hallicarnassus (Dion.Hal.
Ant.Rom.2.5.). Here Romulus is asking Jupiter whether he should be king of the city, and a
flash of lightning came from the left to the right. Although it is a legendary narrative about
Romulus, there is reason to assume that it describes common practice regarding magistrates
at the time of Dionysius (Valeton 1890: 219-221).
The technique is thus a technique ritualized by formulaic speech, with a focus on birds or
lightning as the producers of the signs. It is furthermore a binary technique giving a yes or no
to a question concerning a future action.

Ritualization The technique can be said to be ritualized, because the actions cannot be
adequately represented as intentional action. People do not usually erect tents, sit completely
still, and look out their opening past midnight in response to a question. There is thus a
deficiency in the intentional structure. This deficiency is repaired by the context. The person
seeks an answer to a question and the birds flight or song, comes to be signs of the answer to
that question. Since no one controls the birds or lightning and the birds or lightning do not
usually communicate with humans, some other hidden agent is inferred, that is, Jupiter.
The most famous example of manipulation involving the auspicium de caelo is from the
consulate of Bibulus and Caesar (59 BCE). In this year the consular colleague of Caesar,
Bibulus, was so effectively bullied by Caesar that he could not do anything (Syme 1960: 44).
In consequence he was watching for signs in the sky. Normally, if a consul was watching for
signs, the day would not be fit for official decisions (agere cum populo) in the comitia, and
thus legislation and decisions made on such a day were not valid (Cic.Dom.39, Dio
Cass.38.13.4f). According to the historical sources, Bibulus was looking for signs during the
entire consulate, which in principle made all decisions in that period invalid (Cic.Har.48).
This could be seen as manipulation, but there is nothing to suggest that Bibulus was not
performing the actions correctly, nor either that he did not believe in the efficacy of
divination. It is actually quite probable that he would be looking for signs to deal with the

151
difficult situation, not primarily to obstruct political action, which was evidently inefficient
anyhow. There is therefore no reason to suspect that the ritual was not regarded as important
or as a mere instrument of manipulation.

Direct prestige In general only magistrates were allowed to use the auspicium ex caelo
(Valeton 1889: 444 n.5). According to the augur Messalla, fragments of whose book on
auspices is known to us through Aulus Gellius, the auspices were divided into greater
(maiores) and lesser (minores). The greater auspices belonged to the consul, praetor and
censor (Gel.13.15.4; Fest.148 L), the lesser to lesser magistrates. But the higher auspices
were not equal. First of all, there was a division between the auspices of the censor and those
of the praetor and the consul. They did not apply to the same cases and therefore could not
interfere with each other. The auspices of the consul were greater than those of the praetor
(Gel.13.15.4). This can also be seen in that the auspices of a consul were to be preferred over
that of a praetor if differing auspices were accepted (V.Max.2.8.2.). The consulship was the
highest and the praetorship the second highest office in Rome. The censorship was in many
ways different but equally prestigious.
As mentioned above, other persons could assist. According to Cicero they originally had to
be experienced (peritus), but at his time anyone would do (Cic.Div.2.71). A specialized
assistant, the pullarius, is known to fulfill this function (Liv.10.40.) (cf. Pease 1963: 466-
467). Not much is known about these though. They were not priestly, but assistants
(apparitores) of the magistrates (Wissowa 1912: 498), and at the same social level of
secretary, clerk or crier (Cic.Agr.2.32). It is, however, important to notice that they could not
at their own initiative perform an auspicium. Only magistrates could do that and they were
always thought of as the auspicium of the magistrate. The pullarius was the operator, and it is
clear that he never interpreted the outcome. In cases such as these, as we saw above in
chapter 4, the direct prestige comes from the interpreter not the operator. Consequently the
direct prestige of the practice is very high.
It may also be worthwhile to notice that this form of auspices was explicitly forbidden to
use privately, which wasn’t the case with the auspicium ex tripudio or extispicium (Valeton
1889: 444, n.5). So the utility is more restricted for this type of divination.
We can thus see that only the highest offices can perform this technique. We can also see
that the technique performed by the highest (consul) of these are regarded as more credible,

152
or at least takes precedence over that of the lower (praetor). Although it is strictly speaking
sometimes performed by an assistant, nothing indicates that he was thought of as the one
responsible for it.

Indirect prestige It is rarely mentioned exactly who is understood as responsible for the
signs. Sometimes it is conceptualized as the gods in general (Liv.5.52.2), but when more
precisely specified, it is Jupiter. The birds were seen as messengers of Jupiter (Cic.Div.2.72).
Jupiter is seen as giving his advice on state matters through the auspices (Cic.Leg.3.43).
Jupiter is the highest god in the Roman pantheon, which can be seen by his epithets: optimus
maximus (highest greatest). We can therefore conclude that the indirect prestige was very
high.

Utility and Credibility value The auspicium always expressed either approval or rejection
of an intended action 128 (Cic.Div.2.78). It was never something in between or a suggestion to
do otherwise or anything at all.
The auspicium ex caelo was used:
1) when magistrates were to assume their magistracies. Technically this is after they were
creati (Valeton 1890: 219-221).
2) when a magistrate is leaving Rome for a war or a province (Liv.22.1.7, Fest.276 L)
The auspicium ex avibus is used:
1) when a dictator is appointed (Liv.9.38.14) and his magister equitus (Cic.Leg.3.39)
2) when an assembly (comitium) was held in which laws or elections were to take place
(Liv.5.52.15, V.Max.1.1.3, Gel.13.15.4) (cf. Valeton 1890: 234f)
3) when holding non-plebeian comitia (Wissowa 1896: 2585)
What is known about the auspices of the censor is that they were taken to approve of an
indictment of a capital offence (Var.L.6.9) and also when a census should be conducted
(Var.L.6.86). 129 They didn't overlap with the auspices of the consul and praetor (Gel.13.15.4).
The auspices of the minor magistrates applied only to the holding of a contio, which was a

128
A precise formulation by Servius has it that "auspicium autem est volatus avium, qui indicat agendum vel
omittendum esse quod quis coeperit" (Serv.A.3.375): “auspicium is the flight of birds, which indicates
whether what someone is starting should be done or not” (my translation)
129
See further (Valeton 1890: 220).

153
gathering like the comitia, but without voting on any measures. They were simply addresses
to the people (Gel.13.16.3) (cf. Michels 1978: 47).
The credibility value of the greater auspices was very high since entire armies could be lost
based on the decision (Cic.Div.2.71, Liv.21.63.6-9, 22.7.1-4). Furthermore, elections to the
highest offices could be invalidated and the consuls would have to abdicate (Cic.Div.1.33,
V.Max.1.1.3). In the case of the censor, auspices were involved in capital punishment. For
the lower magistrates the credibility value was not very high since the meetings (contiones)
were of no great consequence, as no decisions were made.
We thus find a hierarchy in the credibility value of the auspices correlated to the level of
the prestige of the magistrate. The information acquired by the highest office is the most
certain, which can be seen in the severity of the measures taken on the basis of the
information. At the other end of the scale, the lesser magistrates, the credibility value is not
very high since the severity of the actions taken based on the information acquired were not
great.

History According to legend the auspices of Romulus created Rome (Liv.1.7.1) and it was
the first divinatory practice in use in Rome (Dion.Hal.2.5.). It is thus the oldest type known to
the Romans. Cicero mentions an old decree (decretum) in the possession of the augural
college which indicates that the auspicium ex caelo was older than the auspicium ex tripudio,
which is attested in the earliest historical records (Cic.Div.2.73). It is therefore probable that
this form belongs to the very earliest forms of divination. This assumption is strengthened in
the section on the augurium, of which the auspicium is a derivation of.

Cultural model The model is that the gods communicate with the Roman people through
the auspices (Serv.A.3.89). They give a warning that the intended action will lead to
misfortune in case it is an unfavorable sign and that it will lead to success if it is a favorable
sign (Liv.26.41.18). It resembles the model of omens analyzed below in chapter 10. Only
here the sign is not an omen, but produced ritually. Indeed it can be seen how intertwined
these conceptions are in the story of Flaminius, who neglects taking the auspices (which
would surely have told him that he was not on the right track), and consequently the gods
give him the signs in the form of omens instead (Liv.21.63-22.4).

154
Auspicium ex tripudio
The auspicium ex tripudio was a technique used by the commanders of armies in the field.
It was used to determine whether the army should attack or not.

Technique Very little is known about the precise procedure of the auspicium ex tripudio,
but the general outline of what took place is reasonably clear. It seems that it was performed
during the night/early morning (Liv.10.40.2). Other stories indicate that it could be performed
at the ocean (Suet.Tib.2). It was performed by the magistrate with an assistant (pullarius). It
had an overall similarity with the auspicium ex caelo and ex avibus (Liv.10.40.2-5,
Cic.Div.2.72). Also here it was necessary to establish silentio (Cic.Div.2.72).
Probably, since the proceeding mimicked that of the auspicium ex caelo, a question was
posed explicitly as part of a prayer. Chickens (pulli) were kept in a cage for taking the
auspicium ex tripudio. The assistant (pullarius) brought them forth (Cic.Div.2.72). Maybe
they were led into the tabernaculum. 130 They were given a pellet of flour (Cic.Div.1.27).
Then the magistrate asked the assistant whether they fed (dicito, si pascuntur), and the
assistant should answer that they did (pascuntur) (Cic.Div.2.72; Liv.9.14.4). If the birds ate
and dropped something on the floor it was a good sign which was called solistimum (Fest.386
L, Cic.Div.2.72). If not, as in the case that they did not eat at all, it was a bad sign. Another
less frequent variant is sonivium tripudium, which is when the food could be heard falling to
the floor (Fest.370 L). It was also a good sign (cf. Valeton 1890: 212)

Ritualization The ritualization is established by a question being posed either explicitly or

implicitly, and food given to the birds. The birds were not thought to be able to communicate
in any way with humans, nor the operator able to influence their behavior. This creates a
deficiency in the intentional structure of the action.
This technique has often been taken as a key example of how Roman divination was
insincere and manipulative (e.g. Latte 1960: 266; Liebeschuetz 1979: 25). The first comes
from the second book of De divinatione. Cicero here writes that the birds are starved, and
consequently will inevitably eat and drop something when offered food (Cic.Div.2.73). This

130
This is the indication of a late Veronese Scholion mentioned by Mommsen (Mommsen 1952: I, 84 n.5). It
is consistent with the description given by Livy in 10.40.

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observation is told in the context of a critique of contemporary divinatory practices. 131 Thus
according to Cicero, the point is that in the old days it was better. To be sure, this is described
as a practice without efficacy, but it does not reflect insincerity. It is interesting to dwell for a
moment on what produces the lack of efficacy. It can be seen from Cicero’s description that
the representation of the action can adequately be described according to normal human
intentional action: the birds are starved by the pullarius with the intention that they eat and
drop something on the ground when fed. It follows that there is no deficiency in the
intentional structure. The action does not open for the representation of a counterintuitive
agents; i.e. Jupiter. Instead of showing that ritual didn’t matter the, source indicates that ritual
was crucial for divination to work.
The second example takes place in 249 during the first Punic war. Publius Claudius Pulcher
was appointed consul and gained the command of the fleet in Sicily. Here the Carthaginian
admiral Atarbas was attacking. Cladius' fleet had just been reinforced with extra ships, which
is probably why he got the idea to make a surprise attack on Atarbas (Polyb.1.49). Before the
attack he consulted the chickens as was customary. But, alas, poor Claudius did not win
support for his idea from the chickens: they refused to eat. He therefore said that they might
drink when they wouldn't eat, and threw them into the sea (Suet.Tib.2.). He then attacked,
and it ended with a great defeat for the Roman navy (Flor.anth.1.18, Suet.Tib.2, V.Max.8.1
ext.4). This story shows the opposite of the Romans in general not taking the auspicium ex
tripudio seriously. The divination had produced a clear answer: that an attack would lead to
disaster, which was what happened. The problem is that the individual, P. Claudius Pulcher,
did not take it seriously. Indeed, the point of the story is that divination is truthful, and one
should follow its pronunciations.
A third case, rarely mentioned 132 , also throws some light on the ritual aspect. It takes place
during the third Samnite war before the battle of Aquilonia in 293. In Livy (10.40) we are
told a story about the consul Papirius and his army just itching to attack. Before attacking
they had to take the auspices. The consul does this and leaves it to the pullarius to report
whether the birds ate. The pullarius caves in to public pressure and reports that the birds did

131
The De divinatione by Cicero is difficult to interpret because Cicero uses himself as a literary character in
the dialogue (Beard 1986). It cannot be taken for granted that the views expressed in book 2 under his name
are really his. It does seem that Cicero believed that the state was best run by the aid of divination
(Cic.Leg.2.31). For a masterful analysis of these intricacies see Jerzy Linderski's article Cicero and Roman
Divination (Linderski 1982)
132
See however (Linderski 1993: 61f)

156
eat and drop the food to the ground although they didn't. The consul orders the attack, but
hears of the misconduct of the pullarius through his nephew and says: "if the man who is
watching the omens makes a false report, he brings down the divine wrath on his own head.
As far as I am concerned, I have received the formal intimation that the chickens ate eagerly.
There could be no more favorable omen for the Roman people and army". 133 He then placed
the poor pullarius in the front of the army, and even before the battle-shout a chance javelin
killed him. The battle ended with a glorious Roman victory. This story has the opposite
outcome of the former which at first sight is strange. It is important to notice that the ritual
was not performed properly since the pullarius did not answer as he should have. It was his
own intention that determined the pronunciation. Effectively it was therefore not an
auspicium ex tripudio because the action was not ritualized. This does not mean that, had he
given the correct pronunciation it would have went wrong, it means that no answer was
obtained altogether. The death of the pullarius is attributed to his vitium (ritual fault). The
reason that the consul accepted the sign anyway was that the wrongful pronunciation was
instead taken as an omen of the impending victory, that is, an oblative sign (since it was not
impetrative). This is strengthened by the mention of a second omen: just before the battle a
crow was giving a loud and distinct caw. 134
In the first case we can see that the lack of efficacy of auspicium ex tripudio is attributed a
lack of ritualization. In the second case the ritual was performed adequately, but the
individual did not respond to its pronunciation. Both cases reinforce the belief that auspicium
ex tripudio produced true information and that it needed to be produced through ritualized
action. In the third case the ritual was not performed correctly, which resulted in the death of
the assistant, who made the ritual transgression. And since it was not performed properly it
did not answer the question and was merely inconclusive.

Direct prestige As far as can be seen from the sources, the auspicium ex tripudio is only
used in military contexts. Only military commanders use it. They were assisted by an
assistant (pullarius), but his role is subordinate. Since military commanders were generally
from the elite but not always of consular rank, the direct prestige was very high. It is also

133
ceterum qui auspicio adest, si quid falsi nuntiat, in semet ipsum religionem recipit; mihi quidem tripudium
nuntiatum, populo Romano exercituique egregium auspicium est (Liv.10.40.11)
134
Ante consulem haec dicentem corvus voce clara occinuit (Liv.10.40.14)

157
worth to notice that in difference to auspicium de caelo or ex avibus, this form was not
restricted to the consuls, but could be used by any commander of an army (Cic.Div.2.74).

Indirect prestige The chickens were explicitly seen as messengers from Jupiter. 135

Utility and Credibility value The auspicium ex tripudio was able to give a positive or a
negative sign regarding some future action. It was used in the military camp primarily to
receive answer regarding an intended attack of the army or fleet (e.g. Liv.38.26.1). It also
seems to have been used by soldiers, who wanted to make a will before battle. Unfortunately
we know almost nothing about this (Mommsen 1952: 84, n.5; Valeton 1890: 213). Since the
future success of some of the ancient world's greatest armies and fleets depended on the
auspicium ex tripudio, the credibility value must be said to be very high.

History It was not regarded by the Romans as being as old as the auspicium ex avibus and
ex caelo (Cic.Div.2.73). It could originally have developed from an oblative practice of
looking at how animals ate (Valeton 1890: 211-215; Wissowa 1896). It is attested for the
years 293 and 249. According to Cicero even the oldest augurs knew of the auspicium ex
tripudio although it was in a different form where any type of bird could be used. Cicero was
at the time of writing this himself an augur and had access to old decrees. It is therefore
reasonable to assume that the auspicium ex tripudio had a long history and had at some point
in time been changed and adapted to use solely in the army. That could have been in the
wake of Roman expansion as is evidenced from the use in the Samnite war and Punic war.
Another fact seems to support this assumption: the auspicium ex tripudio could be taken by
people not of consular rank. It is therefore probable that it had great utility in a context where
wars began to be conducted by persons not of consular rank.

Cultural model The use is conceptualized as an interrogation of Jupiter about the outcome
of an intended attack. The achievement of an auspicium solistimum resulted in a prognosis of
success; the failure to obtain this sign was a prognosis of failure.

135
Haec suntigitur aves internuntiae Iovis (Cic.Div.2.72)

158
Other kinds of auspicium
We know of a few other kinds of auspices, but unfortunately not to a degree of detail that
allows us to make any wide reaching conclusions. In the following I will report what is
known about these.

Auspicium peremne
Technique If, after having taken the auspices, a magistrate came to a stream, he had to lean
out over the water and take some up with his hands, and then, while reciting prayers, let the
water pour out through his hands (Serv.A.9.24, Fest.p.245). It is maybe from the number of
drops that the sign was taken (Valeton 1890: 211). The technique seems focused on water as
the medium conveying the sign.

Ritualization This kind of auspices is known because it is central in a case from 163 BCE
where the newly elected consuls had to abdicate, because the auspicia peremne were not
taken. The consul Tiberius Gracchus, who was presiding over the elections, had taken the
auspices in Scipio's gardens, which were located in the Campus Martius outside the
pomerium of Rome (Platner & Ashby 1929: 273). He then returned to Rome to be at the
electoral assembly (Cic.Div.1.33). After the crier had announced the result he died. Tiberius
suspected that there might be some religious fault in the proceedings and made an
investigation. Tiberius was also an augur. He therefore consulted the ancient books of the
augurs himself and remembered that after he had taken the auspices, he had crossed the small
stream Petronia which flowed across the Campus Martius into the Tiber (Fest.296 L) (cf.
Platner & Ashby 1929: 389). He had forgotten to take the auspicium peremne, which should
be taken when crossing a river. 136 The matter was referred to the senate and the consuls were
asked to abdicate (Cic.N.D.2.10-11). This was however because of vitium, that is a ritual
fault, not because of a pronunciation of the divination technique.
In principle, everybody who crossed a river after having taken the auspices had to take the
auspicium peremne. Since it was used both in private and public (Valeton 1890: 210), the
social status varied. It is not possible to say anything about the associated counterintuitive
agent. And the evidence for assessing the credibility value is inconclusive since we don’t

136
Cicero writes that it is because he crossed the pomerium (Cic.N.D.2.10-11). This is not accurate. The
pomerium was, however, situated at the same place as the Petronia stream at the side of the Campus Martius
(cf. Valeton 1890: 209).

159
have anything about the decisions made on the basis of it. Probably it worked like extispicy,
where the purpose was to achieve litatio. In that case a bad result would merely necessitate
an extra try. This could point to the credibility value being very low.

History Since it is mentioned in the books of the augurs (Fest.146 L) it is possible that it
has a long prehistory. 137 It can also be seen from the example that already at the time of
Tiberius it was almost forgotten. He had to study the books of the augurs in order to find it.
At the time of Cicero it is extinct, since he mentions it as one of the auspices that are no
longer used (Cic.N.D.2.9; Div.2.77).

Auspicium nuptiarum
According to Varro, the wedding auspices were taken by the bride and groom (Serv.4.45). It
is also possible that they were taken before the girl went to the house of her future husband,
that is, before the wedding. 138 Also the bridesmaid seems to have been selected by auspices
(Fest. 282 L; Serv.4.166).
Tellus is invoked in the wedding auspices, but it is Juno, who gives the sign (Serv. 4.166).
Pliny the elder informs us that the most favorable sign for the wedding auspices, according to
the augurs, was a bird called an aegithus (Plin.Nat.10.21). This indicates that the technique
focused on birds as signs. At the time of Cicero it had fallen into disuse.

Auspicia pedestria
The auspicia pedestria were taken from the tracks animals: fox, wolf, snake, horse and
several four legged animals (Fest.286 L). Virtually nothing is known about these. They were
probably oblative (Valeton 1890: 208).

137
Mommsen suggests that it comes from the time when the Tiber was the border between Latin and Etruscan
land, and a crossing therefore meant war (Mommsen 1952: I, 97, n.1). Another suggestion comes from
Bouché-Leclercq (1882: IV, 231), who thinks it was because water courses broke the continuity of the
templum. These suggestions however do not account well for the explicit mention of the Perennia stream. It is
impossible to trace precisely the age, but it seems safe to conclude that it is old.
138
Maybe this is the kind of auspices found in a story in Cicero and Valerius Maximus (Cic.Div.1.104;
V.Max.1.5.4), where Caecilia Metella’s daughter is taking the auspices in a sanctuary (sacellum), concerning
her sister’s daughter’s future marriage. The proceedings here resemble those of the official auspices where
silence (silentio) has to be established. Here however it is not possible to see what the purported sign is (cf.
Valeton 1889, 444)

160
Auspicium ex acuminibus
The auspicium ex acuminibus was some sort of military auspices that were observed before
the beginning of a battle (Valeton 1890: 209). It means “auspices from the points of spears”.
Virtually nothing is known. It has been speculated that it was some sort of electrical spark
that issued from it (Pease 1963: 475). We know that the consul Marcellus abandoned this
form in 222 BCE (Cic.Div.2.77). It may, contrary to the view of Mommsen (Mommsen 1952:
I, 87, n.6), have been oblative (sic. Pease 1963: 475).

Iuges auspicium
Iuges auspicium was when yoked cattle defecated (Fest.92 L). It might have been used in a
more wide sense as signs from yoked cattle and had consequences for the magistrates seeing
it. 139 It was, however, an oblative sign (Valeton 1890: 208).

Sortition

Sortition is strangely not a very well researched form of divination in Roman history. 140
Sortition was used both privately and in public for a wide range of different purposes. Few of
the other divination practices have so many different applications. In the following I will
divide sortition into public sortition, private sortition and sortition oracles.

Public sortition
Whereas the auspices were used to decide whether or not one alternative should be carried
out, sortition was used in cases where more than one alternative existed. In sortition inscribed
lots were employed. The outcome was determined by the draw of an operator. The senate
annually determined the duties to be carried out by the elected officials. These were allocated
after the election by allotment among the elected officials (Stewart 1998: 23). Unfortunately

139
As can be gathered from a medieval scholion (Cf. Pease 1963: 477)
140
It is curiously left out of Susanne William Rasmussen’s Public Portents in Republican Rome (Rasmussen
2003), which presumes to be an exhaustive study of all public Roman divination. It is not either mentioned in
the article on divination in the recent multivolume work on ancient religion, Thesaurus Cultus et Rituum
Antiquorum (Rüpke & Belayche 2005). One could get the impression that the scholarly community did not
consider sortition a form of divination. It does not seem that the ancient Romans shared that impression. We
have for example evidence that the Roman augural college investigated a vitium (ritual fault) in sortition (Liv.
41.18.10), augural vocabulary is consistently used about sortition (Stewart 1998: 38-41) and Festus writes that
sortition is the response of the gods (Fest. 380, L).

161
sortition is not something the Romans cared to describe very thoroughly. What we can know
about it has to be pieced together from a variety of sources.

Technique Let us consider public sortition in the case of allotment of provinces. This is
what we know most about. The place was in front of the temple of Iuppiter Optimus
Maximus (Stewart 1998: 30). The implements for sortition were carried from the temple,
where they were stored. The temple doors, which were usually closed, were opened (App.B
Civ.1.15.). This might have emphasized the god’s attendance, since the temple was seen as
the god’s house (Stewart 1998: 32). Then the actual sortition took place. 141 The lots were
wooden (Pl.Cas.385) and inscribed (Pl.Cas.378) probably with the duty to be performed for
the consuls and praetors (Stewart 1998: 29). For the quaestors, the lots were inscribed with
the name of the magistrate under whom they were to serve (Cic.Sest.8). The lots were then
placed in an urn (sitella or situla) (Pl.Cas.386) and mixed (Pl.Cas.387). Then the lot was
drawn and shown (Pl.Cas.15). The lot was then accepted like omens and prodigies (sortem
suscipere).

Ritualization We find an interesting example of manipulated sortition in Cicero’s Verrine

speeches. In Syracuse Verres wanted his friend Theomnastus elected as a priest of Jupiter.
The rules were that three candidates were proposed. The names of these three candidates
were usually inscribed on lots and drawn to select which should be chosen. The literal
specification was that the same number of lots as candidates should be used. Verres then got
the idea to put three lots inscribed with Theomnastus’ name in the urn, which resulted in the
priesthood being given to Theomnastus. This satisfied the literal rule, but did not satisfy the
Syracusans’ sense of religious propriety (Cic.Ver.2.126f). Everything indicates that it did not
satisfy the Romans’ sense of religious propriety either. Otherwise there would have been no
reason for Cicero to mention the incident. The reason seems to be that the three identical lots
eliminated the displacement of intention in ritualized action. There was therefore no

141
We don’t have any direct descriptions of this process. But one passage in Plautus’ Casina gives us a
relatively full description of sortition. The description is not of the official sortition by the Roman magistrates,
but of a private sortition. It does, however, in all essential aspects, as far as can be reconstructed from other
sources, accurately describe how sortition took place. Plautus also uses the official terminology of sortition
used in administrative and judicial contexts (cf. Stewart 1998: 17). The only apparent difference from the
public sortition is the use of water in the urn, which I have left out of the description here.

162
deficiency in the intentional structure, which is necessary for divination to work: the intention
was very clearly Verres’ and could not therefore be Jupiter’s.
It is also interesting that the religious prescriptions were followed, which indicates that
proper ritual was not just following the literal rules. Religious prescriptions are therefore not
sufficient to constitute proper ritual.

Direct prestige It is not stated who the operators of the sortition for offices were. A guess
would be either the elected officials or the presiding magistrate. This indicates a high level of
social status. Concerning the selection of vestal virgins, the operator was the pontifex
maximus, who was the most prestigious priest in the Roman republic.

Indirect prestige The counterintuitive agent for the selection of tasks for the newly elected
officials was putatively Iuppiter Optimus Maximus since his temple was opened and the
sortition apparel was stored there. He was the highest god in Rome. In other cases the identity
of the counterintuitive agent it is not explicitly stated.

Utility and Credibility value Sortition can determine either a sequence or determine which
of two or more alternatives is to be decided. Examples are: Allocation of duties to consuls,
praetors, quaestors and military tribunes (cf. Stewart 1998), determination of sequence of
voting in election (Stewart 1998: 105-110) or of command among equal magistrates
(Ehrenberg 1896), decision in cases of equal amount of votes 142 , sometimes appointment of
legates in late republic 143 , appointment of judges in the judicial process 144 , appointment of
Vestal virgins. 145 The credibility value is indirectly high, since, for example, the duties of the
consuls had great consequence for the Roman republic.

History It probably came into use in the early republic in the shift from autocratic to
democratic rule. That would probably place it in the 6th century where the expulsion of the
kings and adoption of dual magistracy suddenly created the need for a way to decide the
competences between equal magistrates (Cornell 1995: 226). The technique seems especially

142
Cf. Cic.Planc.53, CIL.2.1964, but this was probably only in the late republic (Ehrenberg 1896: 1495).
143
According to Tacitus this was an old tradition Tac.Hist.4.8.
144
Probably not regularly until the time of Augustus Suet.Aug.29.1 (Ehrenberg 1896: 1495)
145
For the procedure see Gel.1.12.11

163
adapted to situations where a choice between two or more equal alternatives has to be made,
and there is no superior authority to make it. The technique seems to have fallen into disuse
again at the highest level with the reintroduction of autocratic rule in the principate.

Cultural model There are some indications that the allotment of provinces to magistrates
was conceptualized as a decision made by Jupiter (cf. Stewart 1998).

Private sortition
Private sortition is here understood as sortition used by private individuals, but it differs from
sortition oracles which were also used by private people.

Technique In Plautus’ Casina the question is which of two men should marry the slave
Casina. The lots were wooden (Pl.Cas.385) and inscribed 146 (Pl.Cas.378). The lots were then
placed in an urn (sitella or situla) (Pl.Cas.386) and mixed (Pl.Cas.387) or shaken
(Hor.S.1.9.29-30). Then the lot was drawn and shown (Pl.Cas.415).

Ritualization Since the lots were seen as a response to a question and were put in a closed
container and mixed, a displacement of intention takes place. In Plautus’ Casina 375-418
there is an interesting exchange concerning a sortition between two slaves Chalinus and
Olympus about who will get to marry the slave Casina. There is, first of all, a concern that
the lots are equally distributed. The word iniquom (unequal) is used in a sense like unfair, but
should probably rather be translated “improper”, since it reflects the concern for ritualization
of the action. If there is not equality in chance, it opens to the possibility of manipulation,
which is the same as intentional control by a human. There are other indications that such a
concern is present. Later, Chalinus asks if there is another lot in the urn. This could also ruin
the equality if it was identical to one of the two. Later he asks whether the lots are made of
the same wood (poplar or fir). This makes a difference since they use water in the urn. These
two types of wood have different buoyancy; if one floats on top it will be picked more easily.
It is worthwhile noticing that the concerns for the propriety of the sortition, reflects the
degree to which the outcome could possibly be derived from a human intentionality.

146
In Plautus Casina they were inscribed with numbers (Pl.Cas.378). We know of another example where
the lots were inscribed with the names of twelve gods (Fest.150 L).

164
Direct prestige Sometimes it seems that people operated sortition privately (Pl.Cas. 375-
418). But we also find wandering sortilegi (Juv.6.582ff) probably often of non-Roman origin
(Hor.S.1.9.29-30). Those who consult them are described as having low status (vulgus) in
(Cic.Div.2.87.). The sortilegi themselves are not very highly thought of either
(Cic.Div.1.132).

Indirect prestige We know of sortition associated with Fortuna Primigenia (CIL.14.2989)

and Venus Erucina (CIL.6.2274). Possibly Geryon as well (CIL.1.1438-1454), but this was in
connection with established shrines (which will be treated under sortition oracles). Some
associate sortition with Fortuna in general (Sen.Q Nat.6.14.1f) or the gods (Pl.Cas.416-418).

Utility and Credibility value Private sortition could be used to predict the future life of a
child (Hor.S.1.9.30ff), or in case of a crisis such as disease (Fest.150 L). The credibility value
is low since the potential use of resources is lower than that of the public versions. Also
private sortition is explicitly denounced by the elite (Cic.Div.1.132). 147

History Since it is attested around 200 BCE in Plautus’ works and still in the late republic
and during the principate, there are probably no changes in the use and spread of it in the
period under consideration.

Cultural model Festus writes that sortition is the response of the gods (Fest.380 L). The
testimony from Plautus shows that it is understood along the same model as omens. The
positive outcome of the sortition is correlated to the pietas of the “winner”; thus, success
follows from pietas and sortition is the sign that it is so (see further in chapter 10).

Sortition oracles
The Romans did not have possession oracles like the Greeks (Latte 1939). Instead they
employed sortition to communicate with the oracles. The most famous and well attested in

147
In this passage Quintus makes clear that he does not believe in sortilegi. This should be seen in connection
with the fact that Quintus in the dialogue is the one defending divination.

165
our sources is the Fortuna oracle in Praeneste. Here a boy drew an inscribed lot from the urn
and subsequently a sortilegus interpreted it.

Technique The technique resembles the technique used in private and public sortition. Lots
engraved with archaic letters 148 were put in an urn (arca) made of olive wood. A child
shuffled the lots and drew one 149 (Cic.Div. 2.85-86). Subsequently a sortilegus probably
interpreted the lot for the consultants (Champeaux 1982: 71).

Ritualization The ritualization comes about in that a question is posed either explicitly or
implicitly and a lot is drawn blindly from an urn. This lot is considered the answer to that
question. The randomization entailed by the procedure creates a deficiency in the intentional
structure since no intention determines the outcome. Consequently, a counterintuitive agent is
inferred; the counterintuitive agent of the oracle. The ritualization is further emphasized in
the sortition oracles in that it is a child who carries out the drawing of the lot. The child could
not read or understand the implications of the sortition. This further severs any possible link
to a human (adult) intention. The technique thus strengthens the displacement of intention
since it is difficult to see how any human intention could be involved.

Direct prestige We know of a sortilegus of Fortuna Primigenia from Praeneste

(CIL.14.2989). Although this is from the principate around the time of Vespasian, there is
good reason to assume that this inscription reflects practice also in republican times
(Champeaux 1982: I, 71). This sortilegus was previously a centurion and flamen augustalis.
None of these honors indicate that he was of very high standing. It would probably be

148
It seems to have been different what was written on the tablets. We have some archaeological evidence in
17 bronze lots (CIL.1.1438-1454) probably from a shrine of Geryon near Patavium (cf. Pease 1963: 73). The
lots were inscribed with verses and the rhythm resembled the hexameter used by the first Latin historian
Ennius (cf. Bouché-Leclercq 1879: IV, 155). The content was some kind of bon-mots: Corrigi vix tandem
quod curvum est factum credere (straighten finally what you think has been bent), Homines multi sunt,
credere noli (There are many people who do not want to believe), and some of them are more enigmatic: de
incerto certa ne fiant, si sapis, caveas (from the uncertain the certain doesn’t happen, if you know it, beware).
We also know of one lot from Falerii which read Mauors telum suum concutit (Mars is shaking his spear)
(Liv.22.1.11). Here the spelling of Mars is archaizing. For more fragments of inscribed lots see (Champeaux
1982: 75-78).
149
A similar scene is depicted in a bas-relief from Ostia probably dated between 80 and 65 BCE (Champeaux
1982: 64-66). Here a young boy draws a table (tabula) from an urn (arca) on which is inscribed [S]ort(es)
H(erculis) (Hercules’ lots). This suggests a similar procedure but a different god. The bas-relief is dedicated
by a haruspex. Likewise, on coins struck by M. Plaetorius Cestianus on the reverse we see a small person
holding a table on which is written SORS (lot) (Champeaux 1982: 64-66).

166
something like the higher middle class. We know of another one from Pompeii who was a
sortilegus for Venus Erucina (CIL.6.2274). Unfortunately it cannot be decided the social
standing of this person.

Indirect prestige We have attested Fortuna Primigenia 150 , Hercules, Geryon, and Minerva.
All of these are lower gods or not even gods, as in the case of Hercules, a hero, and Geryon, a
titan. The indirect prestige is therefore not very high.

Utility and Credibility value They were exclusively used for private consultation. The
senate is even known to have prevented the use of the oracle at Praeneste in 242 or 241 BCE
for public business (V.Max.1.3.2). We also know from Cicero that it was ordinary people
(vulgus) who came to Praeneste (Cic.Div.2.87). Later the emperors came there to consult the
oracle. The passage in V.Max.1.3.2. shows that members of the elite apparently used this
oracle privately. This indicates that the credibility value was not as low as that of the
wandering private sortilegi, but medium high.

History Different sortition oracles are known throughout Italy. The most famous is the one
in Praeneste, but we know of a handful of other active oracles in Antium 151 , Caere 152 ,
Falerii 153 , Patavium 154 , Tibur 155 , Ostia 156 and Clitumnus 157 . Most are in relatively close
proximity to Rome. The rest come from Italian areas. This could suggest a common Italian
early origin of sortition oracles. 158 The oracle in Praeneste and its connection with Fortuna
Primigenia seem to suggest a quite archaic origin (Bouché-Leclercq 1879: IV, 148;
Champeaux 1982). Likewise, the early mention of the oracles in Caere and Falerri in the

150
There is no reason to assume as Bouché-Leclercq that it really was Jupiter, who pulled the strings in
Praeneste, when no sources mention this (Bouché-Leclercq 1879: IV, 149).
151
Later used by the emperors for private purposes ( Suet.Cal.57.3) Achieved prominence during the
principate (Champeaux 1982: 158)
152
We know this oracle only from the prodigy records in 218 (Liv.21.62.5 & 8). Caere was in South Etruria
close to Rome.
153
We also know this from the prodigy records (Liv.22.1.11). Falerii was in South Etruria close to Rome. It
had a large Sabine population (Bouché-Leclercq 1879: IV, 146)
154
This is in Venetia and is attested only in the 1st century CE, but must have been working much earlier as
well (Suet.Tib.14.3).
155
This oracle is also known from the principate from Stat.Silv.1.3.79 (cf. Champeaux 1982: 64)
156
See (Champeaux 1982: 64-66)
157
Is attested by Pliny the younger in the 1st century BCE, but from is description it is visible that the
sanctuary is an old one (Plin.Ep.8.8).
158
The places were inhabited by Sabines, Umbrians, Latins, Etrurians and Venetians.

167
prodigy records suggests that already early such oracles were established. The rest of the
oracles we hear of only after the end of the republic. They might have experienced a revival
after that. This would correspond with use by the emperors 159 , which probably raised the
prestige of the oracles, especially those in Praeneste and Antium. We do not, however, know
anything about that.

Extispicy
Extispicy is a form of divination where the technique consists in the observation of the
intestines of sacrificial animals. It was practiced in public as well as in private contexts.

Public extispicy
Public extispicy was used in connection with public sacrifices. Its purpose was overall to
ascertain whether the sacrifice and what it entailed was accepted.

Technique After the killing of a victim in a public sacrifice 160 , the entrails (exta) 161 were
inspected 162 to ascertain whether litatio 163 had been achieved or not. The exta could be said
to be positive (laeta) or negative (tristia or turpia) (Liv.27.26.14; 29.10.6). The parts used
were primarily the liver, but also the heart (Plin.Nat.11.186)

Ritualization Ritualization is achieved because the state of the entrails is taken as answer to
a question and the operator has no control of this state. This creates a deficiency in the
intentional structure. The question is entailed by the prayer: In the prayer something is asked
for and the animal is given as a sacrifice to that end (Liv.31.5.4). The acceptance or rejection
of the sacrifice is therefore also an answer as to whether the prayer will come true.
159
Tiberius used the oracle in Praeneste (Suet.Tib.63); Domitian consulted the oracle in Praeneste at the start
of each year (Suet.Dom.15); Caligula consulted the oracle in Antium (Suet.Cal.57); Augustus also may have
consulted the oracle in Antium (Bouché-Leclercq 1879: IV, 154).
160
The Roman sacrifice consisted of different phases. First comes a praefatio with preparatory offerings of
wine and incense and a prayer signifying to which god, then the immolatio in which the victim is marked with
the mola. At this point the victim is killed and immediately following this the entrails are inspected (Latte
1960: 386-392; cf. Scheid 2005: 44-57).
161
The Romans looked at all parts of the entrails, whereas the Etruscans only concerned themselves with the
liver (Schilling 1979: 185).
162
Whereas the Romans used the term inspicere exta, the term used for Etruscan extispicy is consulere exta
(Serv.A.4.64). On the difference (cf. Thulin 1912: 2449). The entrails were inspected without cutting them
from the victim (Ov.Met.15.136).
163
Litatio is a technical term denoting the approval of the god. This was the purpose of the Roman extispicy
not the Etruscan (Blecher 1905: 219, 223; Thulin 1906b: 7)

168
Direct prestige The specialists inspecting the entrails were called haruspices. 164 Their
status was most likely low. This can be deduced from the Lex Coloniae Genetivae. Here
haruspices are ranked at the level of scribes (scribae) and flute players (tibicines)
(CIL.2.5439). It can also be seen from the fact that in the principate we hear of freed men
being haruspices (Thulin 1912: 2441)

Indirect prestige The counterintuitive agent is the god to whom the sacrifice is made and
can therefore vary (Cic.Div.2.38, Liv.41.15.4). The status was therefore variable for each
sacrifice, but it would often be high since public sacrifice was given only to state gods.

Utility and Credibility value The purpose of public extispicy was simply to ascertain
whether the sacrifice was accepted or not. 165 If it was not accepted it could indicate that the
action to which the sacrifice pertained was wrong, but usually it would just lead to the
repetition of the sacrifice. The situations in which we hear of the use of extispicy are
primarily in the consular sacrifice when the consuls take up office (Liv.41.14.7), or before a
new war (Liv.31.5.3) (Thulin 1912: 2454). We can see in the case of the consular sacrifice
how the entrails were interpreted. In Liv.31.5.7 we hear that the entrails were favorable
(laeta), which was taken to mean that victory would be achieved 166 . It could be argued that
this was an interpretation that exceeded the right positive/negative answer postulated to
operate in public extispicy (Pfiffig 1975: 120; Rasmussen 2003; Schilling 1979). But this
interpretation is merely a reiteration of the contents of the prayer. 167 The victims sacrificed
were great (hostiae maiorae), which indicates a sacrifice to Jupiter. The meaning of the
sacrifice could then be interpreted as a question to Jupiter about whether the consuls would
succeed in winning the war in which they were to engage. The entrails gave affirmative
signs, why they portended victory.
164
Other forms are known such as aruspex, harispex, arispex, aryspex but haruspex is the most frequent
(Thulin 1912: 2431).
165
While this is the classical view going back to Wissowa, put most precisely by (Thulin 1906b: 5), some
scholars do not accept a rigid distinction. This is based on the fact that the sources mix terminology
(Rasmussen 2003: 118; Schilling 1979: 118). I think the following examples of public use demonstrate that
there is a rigid distinction between public and private use. The public is like the other forms of public
divination a yes/no form, whereas the private can give richer information regarding the future.
166
(..)haruspices respondere laetaque exta fuisse et prolationem finium victoriamque et triumphum portendi
(Liv.31.5.7)
167
Quod senatus populusque Romanus de republica deque ineundo novo bello in animo haberet, ea res uti
populo Romano sociisque ac nomini Latino bene ac feliciter eveniret (Liv.31.5.4).

169
 We have some knowledge of the different meanings. Especially the so-called head of the
liver (caput iocineris) (cf. Rasmussen 2003: 126) was especially significant. If it was double
or big it was good (Liv. 27.26.13; Plin.Nat.11.189; V.Max.1.6.9). If it was missing it was the
worst sign (Cic.Div.2.32) and would surely lead to death (Plin.Nat.11.189; Liv.41.14.7,
27.26.13-14; Obs.17, 35, 47, 52, 55). If a small fissure was observed in the liver it was also a
dire sign (Plin.Nat.11.190); Cic.N.D.3.14; Cic.Div.1.16). Attention was also paid to the heart.
If it was missing it was a bad sign (Plin.Nat.11.186; Cic.Div.1.119). These examples of
public use of extispicy are performed in connection with public sacrifices such as the
sacrifice on entering office.
The necessity to merely repeat the sacrifice, if a bad sign was obtained, indicates a low
credibility value. If we compare with the auspicium, it can be seen to be less important in
practice. No consuls abdicated because of a bad sign from extispicy and no armies were
lost. 168 If one type of divination approaches a formality, this would be the one.

History Livy tells us that haruspices were employed according to legend already in the time
of the Etruscan kings in Rome (Liv.5.21.8). This is not surprising since the haruspices were
central in Etruscan culture. The first time we hear of them in the Roman republic is when
they were employed by Decius in 340 BCE (Liv.8.9.1), and we hear of them later in 275
(Plin Nat.11.186), 215 (Liv.23.36.10), 212 (Liv.25.16.3), 209 (Liv.27.26.14) and 208
(Plin.11.186). It is difficult to trace the historical origin beyond this. Some have tried to trace
it through Etruscan extispicy to the Babylonians, but extispicy is so common that all peoples
in the Mediterranean seem to have had one form or another (Blecher 1905; Thulin 1906b).
This is a point also noticed by Cicero (Cic.Div.1.16). There were naturally differences and
there does seem to exist some differences between the Etruscan and the Roman (Pfiffig 1975:
120; Thulin 1912: 2449). These divergences may reflect either adaptation to the Roman
context, a separate history or a common source. Either way the differences suggest a long
period of divergence from the Etruscan form, which is the closest. I think it is possible that
the Romans adopted extispicy in the time of Etruscan domination, and then adapted it to their
own purposes. That would explain why public extispicy conforms to the same rules as
auspices, that is, a yes or no answer.

168
At least not based on this alone. There are, though, reports of consuls dying on duty after not obtaining
litatio (e.g. Liv.41.15-18), but loss of entire armies are not attributed to bad prognostications from extispicy.
In practice the inforrmations was merely used to determine whether extra sacrifices had to be made.

170
Cultural model In 176 the consuls Cn. Cornelius Scipio Hispalus and Q. Petilius Spurinus
were elected consuls. On the day of entering office they were both sacrificing an ox, but in
Petilius’ ox the liver did not have a head (Liv.41.14.7) and subsequently Scipios’ liver
disappeared from the boiling pot (Liv.41.15.2). They were ordered to keep sacrificing until
litatio was obtained. In the end they obtained litatio, but Petilius did not obtain litatio from
Salus (health) (Liv.41.15.4). Eventually Petilius died in war against the Ligurians (Liv.
41.18.11). This indicates the familiar pattern of divination expressing a sign of fortune or
misfortune. The fact that it was Salus who did not accept the offer indicates that the health of
the consul was going to be jeopardized.

Private extispicy
Private extispicy differs from the public in the ability to give richer information than a simple
yes or no. It was probably mostly Etruscan diviners (Thulin 1912).

Technique There were two types of victims animales and consultatoriae (Macr.3.5.1,
Serv.Dan. 4.56). Only the last type was used for consultation (Thulin 1906b: 11-16). The
victim was tried to make sure it wouldn’t run from the altar during the sacrifice (Macr.3.5.8).
The most frequent type of victim was sheep (Ov.Fast.4.935, Prop.4.1.24)) 169 and chicken
(Plin.Nat.10.49; Cic.Div.2.29), but also calves were used (Plin.Nat.11.195). The private
sacrifice follows the same general structure as the public sacrifice (Scheid 2005: 319). There
is therefore no reason not to assume that the same was the case when private extispicy took
place. The haruspices held the liver in their left hand with the gall-bladder to the left facing
south. 170 The entrails were then read (consulere) by the haruspex.

Ritualization Ritualization is achieved through the slaughter of an animal with the

expectation that the entrails answer questions about the future. Usually slaughter of an animal
is carried out to get meat, not to hear about the future, so this creates a deficiency in the
intentional structure of the action.

169
This can be seen from the fact that the bronze liver from Piacenza is a sheep’s liver (Rasmussen 2003;
Thulin 1906b: 17)
170
This is what can be gathered from the archaeological and pictorial evidence (Jannot 2005: 20).

171
Direct prestige The social status of the operator seems to be extremely variable. It goes
from the back-alley haruspices 171 widely considered unreliable and cheating by the elite
(Cato.Agr.2.51) to very prestigious Etruscan aristocrats employed privately by the elite172
(North 1990). In Etruria these individual haruspices could gain a significant individual
reputation based on his divination (North 1990: 67). The Etruscan families of the Roman elite
also seem to have transmitted the knowledge of haruspicy from father to son. 173

Indirect prestige Many different gods could be associated. The different parts of the liver
were associated with different gods (Thulin 1906b: 8). It was thus not just one god, who was
thought to give the answer.

Utility and Credibility value Although the details are largely unknown, a few different
meanings are known. The overall appearance of the entrails seems to have been important.
Notice was made of the color (Luc.1.618) and to whether something was missing from the
entrails (Sen.Oed.357). Concerning the heart we know that a missing heart portends death
(Plin.Nat.11.186; Cic.Div.1.119), a flattened or weak heart was bad (Luc.1.621f;
Sen.Oed.356), if it was fat it was a good sign (Plin.Nat.11.186). An incision in the lungs
meant what was planned should be postponed (Cic.Div.1.85). Most important was the liver. If
it was double it meant increased power (Plin.Nat.11.190; Dio Cass.65.35; Suet.Aug.95), if the
skin around the liver was thick it was a good sign (Amm. Marc.22.1.1). If it was thin it was
bad (Sen.Oed.361). The liver was divided into three major parts the caput, the pars familiaris
and the pars hostilis/inimica. If the caput was big or double it was a good sign
(Liv.27.26.13), if it was missing it was the worst sign and usually portended death
(Cic.Div.2.32; Plin.Nat.11.189). 174 If it was cut it meant bad luck (Plin.Nat.11.190), if it had

171
Plautus mentions haruspices working at the market at the Velabrum (Pl.Cur.483), which is between the
Capitol and Palatine (Platner & Ashby 1929: 549). Cicero demotes what he calls vicanos haruspices
(Cic.Div.1.132.). It is reasonable to assume with Pease that these were the same unofficial wandering
haruspices mentioned in other sources (Cato.Agr. 2.51, Pac.1.131) (Pease 1963: ad.loc.)
172
Cicero also mentions a summus haruspex (highest haruspex), who is considered a lot more prestigious
(Cic.Div.2.54). The same is the case for Spurinna, the haruspex used by Caesar (Cic.Div.1.119,
V.Max.8.11.2), and Sulla’s Postumius (Cic.Div.1.72).
173
This can be seen in a letter from Cicero to Caecina (Cic.Fam.6.6.3)
174
All instances of a missing caput iocineris portended death, but Pliny and Sallust mention it as a positive
sign in the case of Marius in Utica (Plin.Nat.11.189; Sall.Iug.63.1). This is odd, since all other instances are
invariably negative and lead to death. It could be that Sallust as a Greek had not gotten the details of Roman
extispicy right, and subsequently Pliny built had the observation from Sallust. This admittedly is pure
speculation.

172
a circle around it, it meant victory (Plut.Sull.27.6; August.C.D.2.24). A good sign on the pars
familiaris meant something good and a bad sign something bad for family and friends.
Likewise, on the pars hostilis, a bad sign was bad and a good sign good for the enemy
(Liv.7.9.1; Sen.Oed.362; Luc.1.621). Stripes (fissa) were important signs (Cic.N.D.3.14;
Cic.Div.1.16, 1.118). They could lead to something good or bad depending on where they
were observed (Cic.Div.2.34). Possibly also spots (Luc.1.618), veins (Sen.Oed.364f) and the
rising or falling of the liver (Sen.Oed.363) were observed. 175 Another part of the liver
frequently observed was the gallbladder. It was devoted to Mars and Neptune. On the
Piacenza bronze liver, the letters for Mars and the first letter of Neptune can be made out in
Etruscan (Thulin 1906b: 20-22). If the gall bladder was big, it signified a naval victory as in
the case of Augustus before the battle at Actium (Plin.Nat.11.195). If it was black it was a
bad sign (Sen.Oed.358).
The private form of extispicy seems to have been used in all possible situations where an
answer to something in the future was needed (e.g. Sall.Iug.63.1; Plin.Nat.11.195). It did not
involve a high amount of resources since it could only be used for private decisions. The
Roman state did not accept decisions concerning battle based on private extispicy. Only in
the last century BCE do we hear of military commanders using haruspices for decisive
answers concerning attack, but at that time, the armies were to a large degree effectively
private. Consequently from around 100 BCE there is an increase in the credibility value
attached to extispicy.

History According to legend extispicy was used already at the time of the kings
(Liv.2.42.10). In the 3rd and 2nd century BCE it seems to have been widespread
(Cato.Agr.5.4; Pl.Poen.463). It continued to be so. From around the turn of the last century
BCE it was increasingly being used by the great men of the republic such as Gaius Gracchus
(V.Max. 9.12.6), Marius (Sall.Iug.63.1), Sulla (Cic.Div.1.72), Verres (Cic.Ver.2.27.33) and
Caesar (Cic.Div.1.119). The trend continued into imperial times with Augustus, Caius, and
Claudius all using haruspices as consultants in their decision making (Plin.Nat.11.189). The
reason for the use is probably its utility, since haruspices could give rich answers to any

175
These are more doubtful since they are only known in dramatic context in the two sources by Lucan and
Seneca. Lucan was Seneca’s nephew and the two passages have so great similarities that they could be
directly related. That would effectively leave us swith only one source.

173
question at any given time. The traditional practices, the auspices, could only give a yes or no
answer.

Cultural model The gods were seen to express their will 176 in the entrails, possibly in the
belief that the gods entered the victim at the time of death. 177 The entrails could also be seen
to declare whether the gods were satisfied. 178 The gods give answers to the future and what
can be done to obtain success.

Sibylline books

The Sibylline Books were books of oracles of the prophetess, called the Sibyl, written in
hexameter. It is not known precisely how they were used, but they could only be consulted on
the order of the senate.

Technique Nothing is known about the method used to locate passages in the Sibylline
Books. It is probable that some sort of randomization, such as lots 179 , was used. Sacred books
in themselves seem to inspire such processes (Petersen 2007). We do know that the books
were written in Greek (Zonar.7.11) and contained verses in hexameter (Rzach 1926: 2106).
They seem to have contained oracles as well as purifications (Parke 1988: 137)

Direct prestige The priesthood responsible for consulting the Sibylline Books, the
decemviri sacris faciundis, was the third most prestigious in the Roman republic and it
counted many who held the highest magistracies (Szemler 1972: 186-187).

Indirect prestige The associated counterintuitive agent is not directly specified. Most often
it is just described as the gods (Lactant.Div.Inst.1.6; Gel.1.19.11). Sibyls were in general
connected to Apollo. There is good reason to assume that Apollo was seen to be the ultimate

176
(..)voluntas dei per exta disquiratur(..)Macr.3.5.1
177
(..)in pectora tauri/Inferni venere dei(..)Luc.1.633f.
178
nuntia fibra (Tib.2.1.26), fibra locuta (Prop.4.1.103)
179
According to Parke, Varro, through Lactantius, implies the use of lots (Parke 1988: 47, n.20), but that
reading of Lact.Div.1.6 is only testified by two of the manuscripts. The fact that sortition oracles were
widespread in Italy (see above) does however lend credibility to this possibility.

174
agent behind the prophecies (Parke 1988). A further indication that this was the case is that
the decemviri were known as priests of Apollo (Liv.10.8.2).

Utility and Credibility value The Sibylline Books were only consulted on the order of the
senate. The senate ordered them to be consulted in the case of prodigies or great misfortune
for the Roman state (Dion.Hal. Ant.Rom.4.62.5). The books also specified ritual remedies to
avert the impending danger. These were often sacrifices that could be very costly, such as
human sacrifice (Oros.4.13.3). The credibility value can thus be seen to be high.

History According to legend the king Tarquinius Superbus 180 entrusted two men to
interpret the books (Dion.Hal.Ant.Rom.4.62.2; Gel.1.19). According to Livy, mentioning a
law probably ultimately from the Annales Maximi, the number was raised to 10 in 369 BCE
(Liv.6.37.12). The books were consulted 50 times between 496 and 100 BCE (Parke 1988:
137). According to Parke the contents of the books indicate that they were compiled in the 6th
century BCE. This is in agreement with a date in the regal period.

Cultural model Roughly the same story of the acquisition of the Sibylline Books by
Tarquinius Superbus is told in all sources (Lact.Div.1.6; Gel.1.19; Dion.Hal.Ant.Rom.4.62.2-
4): a foreign woman offered Tarquinius nine books, but he refused because the price was too
high. The woman then burned three books, and returned demanding the same price for the
last six. The king would still not pay, and she burned three more, returned, and demanded the
same price. Now the king got suspicious and consulted with the augurs who advised him to
buy the remaining three books, which he did. The Sibyl was considered to be able to see the
future and give advice about the proper rituals in times of crisis through the prophecies
contained in the book. Sibylline prophecy can be said to be a further specification of a bad
sign in cases where its meaning is not clear.

180
Lactantius quoting Varro has Tarquinius Priscus (Lact.Div.1.6), but that is the only source attesting to the
Tarquin as being Priscus (cf. Parke 1988: 33-35)

175
Miscellaneous divination

The above are the most important and often mentioned types of divination found in our
sources. There are however a number of practices that do not fit into either of the above
types. We will here review those and the sparse evidence for them.

Vates
We sometimes hear of a group of diviners, called vates (Ov.Am.1.24; Luc.5.85;
Verg.A.3.356). They are often, but not always, described as ecstatic and connected to divine
inspiration according to the Greek model of the oracles (eg. Luc.6.770, 8.824; Serv.A.6.12).
The word vates can probably be traced to Celtic (Walde & Hofman 1954: II, 737). It may
therefore be that vates were Celtic diviners. Celtic diviners were, however, not specialized in
ecstatic divination, but instead in the flight of birds and extispicy. 181 Livy may sometimes be
alluding to such Celtic vates (Liv.2.42.10). Almost nothing is known of them and ecstatic
divination in general is absent in Roman republican times (Bouché-Leclercq 1879: 119). In
general the word is used in a very loose way and virtually all descriptions are poetic or
mythological fictions. It is therefore difficult to see exactly what sort of diviner was the
historical basis of the term vates.

Astrology
Whereas astrology as a form of divination can be traced back to the Mesopotamian cultures
of the 3rd millennium BCE, the form with the zodiac and the astrological chart, which gained
great influence in the Roman Empire, was established through Greek influence in the 5th
century BCE (Von Stuckrad 2005). It would thus be very likely that we could find astrology
in the Roman Republic already very early. Before the end of the republic, however, we have
only two mentions of astrology. They concern the 2nd century BCE. The first concerns an
expulsion of astrologers from Rome (V.Max.1.3.3). The second concerns Cato’s order to his
vilicus (estate manager) not to consult astrologers among others (Cato.Agr.1.5.4). Astrology
was actively eliminated in the middle republican period, and was probably used by the lower

181
Strabo speaks of ουατειζ among the Gauls. They are described
as ι(εροποιοι και φυσιολογοι(Strabo.4.4.4). We would expect μαντειϕ if they were diviners, not
ι(εροποιο. But that the Gauls had a special class of diviners is confirmed by Diodorus Siculus (Diod.5.31.3).
They, however, used the flight of birds and slaughter of animals to predict the future.

176
classes to judge from the Cato reference. The next we hear of astrology is in 86 BCE where
the consul Octavius was killed and an astrological diagram was found on him (Plut.Mar.42.4-
5). We also hear that astrologers were used by Sulla (Plut.Sull.37.1) and Caesar
(Cic.Div.2.99), and that the Etruscan friend of Cicero’s, Nigidius Figulus, should have been
an expert on the stars (Luc.1.639-672). 182 Thus, at the end of the republic it seems that
astrology was rapidly gaining momentum and peaked during the principate (Barton 1994;
Von Stuckrad 2005). It was used exclusively for private purposes.

Conclusion
In this section I will summarize the results of the empirical analysis in light of the theoretical
model developed in chapters three through six.

Motivation
We found that divination was typically motivated by situations of actual or potential
misfortune as was stipulated in the theoretical chapter. It could be before a battle (auspicium
ex tripudio/ ex caelo/ ex avibus), in situations of danger to the nation (Sibylline Books), the
allotment of provinces (public sortition), and in a private context, for example before a
wedding (auspicium nuptiarum). Some techniques are not so obviously connected to actual
or potential misfortune: public extispicy could be said to merely ascertain whether a sacrifice
was good or bad, but frequently it is seen to indicate whether the consul or other sacrificers
will prosper or die. Auspicium peremne is in general quite enigmatic. The private techniques
are very poorly attested. It is clear though that private divination practices were sought for
knowledge on, for example the future fortune of a child, disease, love or marriage. In general,
the Roman sources indicate the same sort of uncertanties related to the ideal life found in
chapter four that motivate people to use divination today.
It may seem self-evident that questions were about actual or potential misfortune, but they
could as well have been about the origin of words (a deep rooted concern of Varro), the
nature of the Gods (the subject of a treatise by Cicero), the true nature of lightning (the focus
182
Plutarch may very well project something common in his era into the past for dramatic purposes as Barton
suggests (Barton 1994: 191, n.41). Lucan’s testimony is a dramatization that appears in a tour de force of
divination forms that show all the bad signs that portend the demise of the republic. We are therefore left with
the testimony of Cicero as the only solid one. It does seem probable, though, as Barton suggests, that at the
time of Cicero Etruscan haruspices were inspired by astrology and tried to incorporate it into their art, which
already operated with a division of the sky, although they had 16 regions and not 12 houses (Thulin 1906a:
15-22). For further evidence of this see (Barton 1994: 39).

177
of prolonged arguments by Seneca, Pliny the Elder). These are questions that also greatly
interested the Romans, but were never put to divinatory inquiry.
The motivations of the Romans to engage in divination were in short: perceptions of actual
or potential misfortune or lack of fortune.

Ritualization
All divination techniques in the survey employed ritualized action in the sense stipulated in
chapter four. They featured a displacement of the intention of the operator which provoked a
deficiency in the intentional representation of the action. This was often achieved by asking
of a question and performing an action that would allow the production of signs without the
direct control of the operator. These signs were subsequently represented as stemming from a
counterintuitive agent. In all the techniques great attention was paid to whether the operator
was able to influence the divinatory pattern. That would have resulted in a lack of
displacement of intention. We saw some examples of this. Cicero mentions that the sacred
chickens were starved in the auspicium ex tripudio in order for them to eat and therefore give
a good sign. He clearly does not see this as leading to credible information, since the
pullarius who starves them, and not the gods, is represented as the intentional agent. In other
words there is thus no displacement of intention and therefore no deficiency in the intentional
structure. The same is the case with the story about Verres who followed all the ritual rules,
but puts three identical lots with the name of his preferred candidate, instead of three
different ones, in the urn. There has been no displacement of intention since the outcome is
derived from Verres intention. A third case is the debate in Plautus’ Casina concerning
equality of the lots. This can be understood as a debate about whether proper displacement of
intention took place. If the lots were not equal, they did not have an equal chance of getting
picked. They would thus be amenable to the manipulation of an intentional agent, i.e. the
opponent and not the gods. A displacement would not take place.
As stipulated, these stories have usually been taken to show that the Romans knew that
divination was mere manipulation without any belief in the gods, but the present analysis
points to another interpretation. They show that a lack of ritualized action results in lack of
credibility. The Romans told these stories precisely because manipulation should be averted
in order that the divination should give a credible answer. Paradigmatic stories such as those
about Flaminius, and Appius Claudius Pulcher show that indeed failure to perform the ritual

178
in a proper (ritualized) way leads to great misfortune. The stories about manipulation show
that the absence of ritualized action did not achieve credible information from the gods,
which would lead to disaster. Ritualized action is a sine qua non for all divination practices
reviewed here.

Categories employed in technique

Based on the findings in chapter 4 we would expect that techniques employing humans as
producers of signs, e.g. ecstatic techniques, were more credible than techniques using animals
and these in turn were more credible than those using physical objects. Surprisingly,
however, we find that no techniques employ humans. Ecstatic techniques were altogether
absent from Roman culture at large. Out of the 13 known practices, 7 made used of physical
objects and 6 made use of animals in the sign production. It still could be partly correct if the
animal techniques were more credible, but out of the six practices with a high credibility
value 3 are object techniques and 3 are animal and out of six practices with low credibility
value 3 were object techniques and 3 were animal. The conclusion must therefore be that the
category used in the sign production has no consequences for the credibility of divination in
Roman republican times. This also reflects back on the experiment. The results may be
culture specific or they may measure something else.

Direct prestige
The direct prestige was stipulated to be of great consequence to the credibility of the
divinatory information. It was stipulated to work directly through the agent associated with
the action, that is, the operator or in case where this differed, the interpreter.
There is an almost perfect correlation between direct prestige and credibility value. The
practices with the highest credibility values (auspices) were also reserved for the most
prestigious individuals, the highest magistrates, and the practices with the lowest were
performed by the least prestigious, often foreigners outside or below the Roman status
system. Even within practices the credibility value was divided. In the auspices the higher
auspices belonged to the higher magistrates, and the lower to the lower magistrates. The
higher overruled the lower. We also see this result in practices that are used privately. For
example we see the haruspices employed by the lowest stratum of society. They were
ridiculed and mocked by the elite. But the haruspices of the elite were employed by the

179
greatest men of the Republic and their interpretations were well respected and had a high
credibility value.

Indirect prestige
It was also stipulated that the indirect prestige of the counterintuitive agent correlates with the
credibility value. The example of public extispicy however shows that although the public
haruspices would often sacrifice to Jupiter the credibility value of their pronouncement was
not high. Conversely, sometimes in private extispicy the entrails would give messages from
Jupiter. This did not make the credibility value higher. The indirect prestige of the associated
counterintuitive agent is thus secondary to the direct prestige and seems to depend on it.
Howevere, there are practices in which indirect prestige makes a significant difference in
credibility. Concerning the Sibylline Books, the priesthood responsible was of the same
overall social class as the augurs. The only difference was that the Sibylline Books were not
associated with Jupiter, but with the Sibyl or Apollo, which were of lower status in the
Roman pantheon. This difference in the prestige level of the counterintuitive agent seems to
account for the credibility value being lower for the Sibylline Books.

Utility
In chapter 4 we found that the utility characteristic of a practice were a combination of form
and subject. We identified three different types of form: binary, discrete and rich plus two
types of subject constraints: restrained and open. These two characteristics can be combined
in a two by three matrix. Each combination corresponds to an actual Roman divination
practice.
Form Binary Discrete Rich
Subject
Restrained Auspices Public sortition Sibylline Books

Open Roman extispicy Private sortition Private extispicy

Table 9.1. Utility of Roman divination practices

If we look at the binary/restrained form, all kinds of auspices fit into this category. An
example is the auspicium ex tripudio where the goal is to determine whether or not to attack.
Public sortition is also restrained, but it is a discrete type because two or more alternatives are

180
offered. An example of this is the assignment of provinces. In the practice involving the
Sibylline Books we also see a restrained practice, but combined with a rich form. It is
restrained because it is only in a specific situation, one of national crisis, that the senate
orders them consulted. It is rich because it can give a lot more details and information in the
form of interpretation and recommendation of rites. The open practices can be used to give
answers to a wide range of questions. Roman extispicy is a binary and open type because it
answers whether or not what is specified in the prayer will come true. In principle anything
could be asked for in a prayer. Private sortition is open because anything could be asked, and
discrete because specific alternatives should be attached to the lots used for the draw. An
example of a rich and open practice is the private extispicy operated by Etruscan diviners.
We have examples of them giving detailed predictions about future occurrences.

Cultural model - reflective representation of divination

In virtually all instances we explicitly read about a communication with a counterintuitive
agent: that the birds were messengers of Jupiter in the auspices, that the entrails speak on
behalf of gods or that the gods respond through the lots. In some practices, as in the case of
public sortition, the involvement of the counterintuitive agent is often not explicit.
Concerning astrology and the auspicium peremne we hear nothing, but that is probably more
due to the fact that the sources are severely limited.
In all instances where it is possible to test, we find a reflective conceptualization of
divination as a communication with a counterintuitive agent in Roman divination. For every
practice, apart from the two most obscure (auspicium peremne, and astrology) it has been
possible to determine which god is answering. Thus the answer is seen explicitly as coming
from a counterintuitive agent.
Often, as in the case of private sortition or the auspicium ex tripudio, a cultural model is
found, resembling the one we will see for oblative divination in the next chapter. The fact
that omens and divination are conceptualized by reference to a similar cultural model
indicates a mutual reinforcement that may also have stimulated the dissemination of
divination in general. Table 9.2. Shows a summary of the different factors considered for
each of the different practices.

181
Technique Descriptives Credibility value factors Utility factors
Credibility value Dissemination CIA Ritualization Category Direct Prestige Indirect prestige Form Subject
Augurium Very high Small Iuppiter O. M. Yes Animal Very high Very High Binary Restrained
Auspicium ex caelo Very high Small Iuppiter O. M. Yes Object Very high Very High Binary Restrained
Auspicium ex avibus Very high Small Iuppiter O. M. Yes Animal Very high Very High Binary Restrained
Auspicium ex tripudioVery high Small Iuppiter O. M. Yes Animal Very high Very High Binary Restrained
Auspicium peremne Low Small Yes Object Variable Binary Restrained
Auspicium nuptiarum Low Small Tellus/Juno Yes Animal Low Medium/High Binary Restrained
Public sortition High Medium Iuppiter O. M. Yes Object Very high Very High Discrete Restrained
Private sortition Low Wide Fortuna Yes Object Low Medium Discrete Open
Fortuna Primigenia
Hercules, Geryon,
Sortition oracles Medium Wide Minerva Yes Object Medium Low Rich Open
Public extispicy Low Medium Variable Yes Animal Low Binary Restrained
Private extispicy Medium Wide Variable Yes Animal Variable Rich Open
Sibylline Books High Small Sibyl/Apollo Yes Object High Medium/High Rich Restrained
Astrology Low Small Object Low Rich Open

Tabel 9.2. Summary of factors for Roman impetrative divination

182
Factors in the dissemination of divination
We may now sketch more precisely the interrelations between the different factors we found in
the analysis. We isolated four primary factors: credibility value, utility, cultural model and
motivation. The motivation was in all cases to achieve fortune and avoid misfortune. The
cultural model in all cases implied communication with a counterintuitive agent. The motivation
and the cultural model are therefore, as far as we can see, constant in the entire period in
question and do not vary significantly. Credibility value is composed of three factors. It is now
possible to see which of the factors seem to be most important in determining the credibility
value of divination. We can rank them in order of importance: the most important factor is
ritualization. All divinatory techniques employ ritualized action. Second most important is the
direct prestige. This is the most fine-grained predictor of credibility value. Third, we have the
indirect prestige of the associated counterintuitive agent. These three factors quite precisely
determine the credibility value of the divination technique. The utility is determined by a
combination of form and subject, but it only attains importance in a context. We can therefore
not say anything in general about the degree of utility.

Dissemination of divination practice

Credibility Utility Cultural Motivation

l model

Ritual Direct Indirect

prestige prestige Form Subject

Similar Frequency
Social hierarchy - Divine hierarchy models of use
Prestige distribution Religious ontology

Figure 9.1. Relations between relevant variables for dissemination of a divination practice

183
History
Let us see how these observations can help us understand the historical dynamics. We only know
of a couple of divination practices that became extinct: The auspicium nuptiarum, auspicium
peremne, astrology, and some sortition oracles seem to have disappeared. They all had low
credibility value. Astrology however returned and came into prominence later, but that is a
different story involving the endorsement of the practice by the emperors, thus dramatically
increasing its credibility values. The survival of a divination practice therefore seems to depend
on the credibility value of the divination practice. The assumption that high credibility value
provided a divination practice with a higher probability of survival is consistent with the findings
here. We should, however, also notice that the practices that became extinct were also not
widespread. Many other practices that had low credibility value and were widespread did not
become extinct. In light of this we may assume that the dissemination of the practice is likewise
a factor in determining the resilience of it.
The divination practices that appear to have been widespread all have a low credibility value as
well. This is probably due to economic reasons. The actual value of the use of a divination
practice correlates with the credibility value. Since most people don’t have a lot of resources, the
costly practices, i.e. the ones with high credibility value, will not be as widespread.
Utility was also an important factor in determining the historical trajectory of a divination
practice. The utility of a practice does not tell us anything in itself as to whether it will be
adopted or not. It is only the utility in relation to a context. A practice is adopted because it is
useful in a situation. If the context arises often the practice will have a higher probability of
becoming widespread. We can see some instances where the utility of a practice in a given
context is the primary reason it was adopted. Four cases lend themselves to this interpretation.
1) The adoption of public sortition should be found in the utility of sortition in deciding between
several alternatives. After the expulsion of the kings the command of the armies were divided
between two equal magistrates or several military tribunes. Thus, a context arose where it was
necessary to choose between several discrete alternatives. In this context sortition had a high
utility because of its form.
2) The auspicium ex tripudio is not seen as being as old as the other kinds of auspices. The
difference between auspicium ex tripudio and the other kinds of auspices is primarily that the

184
former can be operated by anyone and that it could be used privately for any purpose. During the
Roman expansion eventually more armies were deployed than could be commanded by the
consuls, therefore a context arose in which the auspicium ex tripudio was useful since it could be
used by anyone. It may also have been useful in other cases, such as making wills, in the military
context. In these contexts the traditional auspices could not have been used.
3) The use of the Sibylline Books, while enigmatic in its details, offers another glimpse of how
the utility accounts for its use. The Sibylline Books were used in contexts where the senate was
in doubt what to do, as in the case of severe crisis, or especially mysterious or frightening
prodigies. Through the details of the prophecies, most notably a specification of rituals to be
performed, a rich interpretation of the situation at hand was arrived at. None of the traditional
public forms could be used in this context because they were all either binary (auspices,
extispicy) or discrete (sortition). Therefore in the rare cases where the senate did not know what
to do a context arose in which the Sibylline Books were useful because of its form.
4) The last example shows that the auspicium ex tripudio, although more useful to non-consular
military commanders, still was constrained by the binary form. From around the turn of the 1st
century BCE big military commanders like Sulla started to employ private Etruscan haruspices,
because their divination practice allowed, not only open, but also rich information to be
acquired. Often a context would lend itself where the commander would not know exactly what
to do, maybe several tactical possibilities were open. In this context the Etruscan form of
extispicy was more useful because it could give rich information. These four examples offer a
glimpse of how utility can account for the historical dynamics of divination practices.
It can therefore be seen that the overall historical tendencies of the different factors are
explained by the credibility value and utility. One could wonder why the cultural model and the
motivation do not figure here. The reason is that they are both constant as far as can be seen in
the period in question. There is no change in the basic cultural model of divination. Furthermore,
the motivation is constant because its basis, misfortune, was also constant.

Summary

185
To summarize the conclusion, we have a list of factors that all seem to contribute to divination
pervading Roman culture for centuries. First, we found that the motivation is constant across
different practices and across the period considered. Second, the credibility of a practice
depended, in descending order of importance, on ritualization, the direct prestige and the indirect
prestige. Third, the spread of a practice is inversely proportional to its credibility value. Fourth, it
is possible that historical developments can explain why some practices have been adopted by
reference to their utility, because it made them useful in a new context. Fifth, divination is in all
cases, where we have sources to determine it, conceptualized as a communication with a
counterintuitive agent.
We can sketch these observations in a more formal way. The key relations between the
factors can be expressed as a series of equations. First a note on these equations: they are not
intended to signify laws in a universal sense, but are meant to highlight regularities that hold
for the period and culture under investigation here. Whether they hold more generally cannot
be decided on the basis of this singular example, but requires more research. It should also be
noticed that they are not deterministic but probabilistic. This means that one counter example
does not falsify the regularity, but if the proportion of counter examples to predicted examples
exceeds the normal limits for statistical significance it would invalidate the equation. Another
problem is whether different factors can even be compared against each other, that is, do they
even have the same currency? In economy similar equations of incommensurable factors are
frequently employed. Since this does not pose a problem in economy, it should not either be a
problem in religion (cf. Alles 2006).
1) C = aR + bDP + cIP, a>b>c

2) P(D) = 1 – C, 0<C<1

3) P(A) = C + U*F

4) P(S) =C+D

C = Credibility value, D = Dissemination, R = Ritualization, DP = Direct prestige, IP = Indirect

prestige, U = Utility in a given context – the degree to which the practice gives the type of
information sought, F = the frequency that this context arises, S = Survival – probability that the
practice will survive, A = Adoption of a new practice.

186
Ad 1) This equation states that the credibility value of a divination practice is composed of
three factors which have a different weight each (a, b and c). We don’t know the exact value of
these factors, but we do know that ritualization is the most important. The second most important
is direct prestige, and the least important is indirect prestige. Thus the weights of the three
factors are a>b>c. Ritualization is a binary factor. Indirect prestige varies with the direct prestige
and may be slightly higher or slightly lower. IP probably depends on R>0, but it is a different
problem whether the IP remains a factor outside ritual divination. 183 The equation also predicts
that the credibility value of an utterance which is not ritualized, that is when R=0, can be
evaluated according to the normal human heuristic of prestige bias. This is because only DP
remains.

Ad 2) Equation 2 states that the probability that a practice will be disseminated is inversely
proportional to the credibility value of the practice. The reason for this can be learned from a
basic insight from economics. Divination is a service and as such economicly a commodity. Like
all commodities it has a value. This value correlates with what we have here called credibility
value. It should not be controversial that the more credible some information is (credibility
value) the more valuable it is (actual value). The probability of dissemination correlates with
demand. In economics this relation between value and demand of a commodity is expressed in,
what has been termed, the demand curve. The basic prediction of the demand curve in economics
is that ceteris paribus, high price of a commodity results in low demand and low price in high
demand (Mulhearn & Vane 1999: 28-30). Likewise in divination we should expect high
credibility value to result in low demand and low credibility value in high demand. It is however
necessary to remember that this is a ceteris paribus claim, so other factors may result in a low
credibility value practice not being widely disseminated, just like a cheap good does not
necessarily result in high sales. It could also be argued that utility should be part of this equation
as specified in equation 3, but it does not matter how useful a divination practice is, it will still
follow the demand curve.

183
One could here imagine revelations or prophecy as positive examples, because the ultimate communicator is a
god. For an interesting analysis of these implications see (Levy 2007)

187
Ad 3) This equation states that the probability that a practice will be adopted in a given context
depends on the credibility value of the practice plus the utility of the practice in that context
times the frequency that the context arises. We saw four examples of this in the history section
above.

Ad 4) This equation states that the probability that a practice will survive for a longer period of
time depends on its credibility value and dissemination. Although the probability is C + D, we
have to take in to account that C and D are related as specified in equation 2. The probability that
a practice will survive can be sketched as in figure 9.2. below:

Dissemination

High

Medium

Low

Credibility value

Figure 9.2. Probability of survival of a divination practice

The reason why the lines decline towards the right is because they denote the probable cut off
determined by equation 2). This follows from the demand curve that similarly declines towards
the right (Mulhearn & Vane 1999: 28): It is therefore improbable that there would be any
practices above the upper line. We can compare this with the 13 practices we have investigated
(cf. fig.9.3).

188
 3,5
Dissemination 3
2,5

1,5

1
0,5

0
0 1 2 3 4 5

Credibility value

Figure 9.3. Survival of divination practices 184

We can see that there are no examples in the upper right corner, as we expected from equation
2. We can also see that the different practices are located in the high probability zone across the
diagram (the bright rim): Some rely on high credibility value, while others rely on high
dissemination. We do have three practices that do not follow this picture in the lower left corner,
but they are exactly the two that died out, as was expected from equation 4. The actual names of
the practices can be seen on figure 9.4. where those that do not survive are marked with a cross.
A strong word of caution on the interpretation of these figures is however necessary here. First,
the values in the graph are the product of interpretation, not accurate measurement. Second, the
interpretation is very insecure and conjectural since the sources very rarely directly address
dissemination or credibility value. Third, there are so few data points (13) that the introduction
of one new one could opset the picture. We cannot therefore be very certain about the results.
While the graph does not proof, it is still in accordance with, what we would expect based on the
theoretical model.

184
Table 9.1 was converted into numerical values to make the diagram. Credibility value: Very high=4, High=3
Medium=2, Low=1; Dissemination: Wide=3, Medium=2, Small=1

189
 Dissemination

Private sortition
Sortition oracles
Private extispicy

Public extispicy Public sortition

Ausp.ex tripudium
Sibyline Books Ausp.ex avibus
+Ausp.nuptiarum Augurium
+Ausp. peremne Ausp.ex caelo
+Astrology

Credibility value

Figure 9.4. Survival of named divination practices

190
Chapter 10 - Signa oblativa

In this chapter we see how omens were conceptualized and how widespread this
conceptualization was in Roman republican times. The English term omen is used as a general
term for all words meaning omen. When using the Latin term I shall use omen in italics. First,
the omen vocabulary will be analyzed and then the different types of omens. All instances of
omens are conceptualized according to a simply cultural model. This model specifies that omens
are communications from the gods about future success or misfortune. In order to see whether
this was widespread, the frequency of omen words will be analyzed. It will be argued that the
cultural model for omens was widely disseminated. Subsequently the prodigy system will be
analyzed as it is the most detailed record of omens over a long period of time.

The omen vocabulary in Latin

Let us first look at the vocabulary which the Romans used to describe omens. In Latin there are
several different words, which would simply be rendered omen in English. The nouns are
augurium, auspicium, dirum, monstrum, portenta, ostenta, miraculum. There are many
adjectives denoting either a good omen (faustus and bonus) or a bad omen (dirus, detestabilis,
funestus, sinister, tristis, infaustus and adversus). In actual use there is a great overlap and
figurative usage, but it is possible to sketch the primary senses of the different nouns. 185
An Omen is in general a sign to an individual, but it may also be directed towards a group
signified by that individual, such as the army in the case of an army commander, or the state in
the case of a consul. It signifies something that will happen in the future, either good or bad. It is
not always described explicitly as stemming from the gods. There is, however, a Latin idiom
used frequently by Cicero “quod omen di avertant 186 , which could be translated to something

185
For general accounts of the omen vocabulary in Latin see (Bloch 1963: 84f; Riess 1995: 355-358; Wülker
1903: 1)
186
There are other variants like quod di immortales omen avertant (Cic.Har.41) quod Juppiter omen avertat
(Cic.Brut 1.12.1), quod di omen obruant (Cic.Har.20).

191
like “may the gods avert (bad) omens”. This could indicate that omens were in general
conceptualized as stemming from the gods or Jupiter.
• Augurium in a technical sense is confined to the acts by the augurs watching the birds,
that is an impetrative sign (see above chapter 9), but, since many of the same birds used
in the augural discipline were also observed as oblative signs, the word augurium came
to be applied to omens as well (Linderski 1986: 2294-2295).
• Auspicium is likewise a technical term denoting impetrative observation of signs, mostly
birds, by non-augurs, that is, magistrates or private people (Linderski 1986; see above
chapter 9). For the same reasons as the augurium the auspicium could be used for
oblative signs as well.
• Dirum is a bad sign taken to show the anger of the gods.
• Monstrum is the most common designation of the strange or unnatural (Riess 1995: 355).
It is described by Festus as what shows the future and reminds one of the will of the gods
(Fest.122 L). It is most often something negative, i.e. a warning (Bloch 1963: 85)
• Portentum/Ostentum. Portentum is according to Festus a bad sign, while ostentum is a
good sign (Fest. 284 L). This is, however, not an accurate description of the actual usage
since they often appear as synonyms. They seem to be more vague and general terms
(Bloch 1963: 85).
• Prodigium was usually described as a sign of divine anger. It concerns the state in
general and foreshadows a disaster if nothing is done. Usually some ritual has to be
performed to avert the disaster.
There is, as mentioned above, also a large number of adjectives that modify the omen to
express whether it is good or bad. They can sometimes be used elliptically without the noun to
designate an omen.

Detection of an omen
There are, as we saw above in chapter 5, three basic ways a physical occurrence can become
salient and interpreted as an omen. First, the occurrence in some way relates to a current concern
of the agent; second, the occurrence belongs to a culturally established catalogue of signs; third,
the occurrence is so attention demanding in itself that it seems to demand an explanation.

192
 The first type is by far the most common. Let us look at a paradigmatic example. It can be read
in Cicero’s De divinatione (Cic.Div.1.103) and it is also one of the stories selected for illustration
of omens by Valerius Maximus (V.Max.1.5.ext 3). 187 When Lucius Paulus was elected consul
for the second time (in 168 BCE), he received the command of the war against Perses by lot. The
same day he came home and kissed his daughter Terentia. He noticed that she was sad and asked
what was wrong. She said that Persa was dead. Persa was her puppy. He took that as an omen
signifying that he would conquer Perses. We can see that the occurrence is nothing out of the
ordinary in itself, but in the context of the current concerns of Lucius Paulus it becomes salient
and is identified as an omen. This type is very typical for omens.
The second category also most often occurs in relation to a specific concern of the agent, but
they can in principle be identified by themselves. Examples are observation of an owl (bubo)
(Ov.Met.5.549f) or volucres (a special kind of birds) (Ov.Ep.13.49; Cic.Planc.23.57). They were
bad signs. The observation of a thunderclap to the left is an example of a good sign
(Cic.Div.2.74). They are so in virtue of the augural discipline, which has encoded a body of
knowledge into their practice. This type of signs often depends on a group of specialists or a
written codification to maintain them. It is therefore probably not by chance that we only find
omens with fixed meaning among signs used in the augural discipline.
Examples of the third type are very hard to find among the omina, one example is: Caesar’s
door to his sleeping room closed by it self the night before he was murdered (Suet.Jul.81). This
type is much more common among prodigies as we will see.

Contents of the omen

The contents of omens were not just predictions of the future, although that is a central
component. There is more information in them. In order to understand this, it is necessary to step
back a bit and look at some very general characteristics of Roman religion, and how this is
related to fortune and misfortune.
A well known quote from Cicero describes the basis of Roman religion very well: ”but in piety
[pietas], in devotion to religion [religio] and in that special wisdom which consists in the
recognition of the truth that the world is swayed and directed by divine proposal, we have

187
The story is also related in Plut.Aem.10

193
excelled every race and every nation”. 188 According to Cicero, the Romans exceed everyone else
in pietas and religio. These two concepts have been the focus of many investigations.Still,
diverging opinions about what their exact meaning exist. There does, however, seem to be
common agreement that they refer to something essential in Roman religion, namely the
regulated religious practice according to prescribed rules (Latte 1960: 212; Liebeschuetz 1979:
1; Wissowa 1912: 380). Pietas is described by the Latin-English dictionary of Lewis and Short
as “dutiful conduct towards the gods, one’s parents, relatives, benefactors, country etc.” This
points to something central, namely acting in accordance with obligations in a social exchange
system. The Roman society was pervaded by dependence through exchange relations of the
cliens – patronus type. The same was the case in relation to the gods. Like dutiful conduct
brought fortune in the form of help from a patron or superior friend, pietas in relation to the gods
brought good fortune in the form of help from the gods. Whereas proper behavior towards a
patronus might entail offering gifts or political support, proper behavior towards the gods meant
to perform rites properly and to observe the correct religious prescriptions down to the smallest
detail (Latte 1960: 40f; Liebeschuetz 1979: 9; Linderski 1995: 487; Wissowa 1912: 390). This
adumbrates the contours of a basic model where proper religious behavior is the cause of fortune
and neglect the cause of misfortune. The purpose of the pious Roman was therefore in the words
of Wissowa “Fernhaltung alles Bösen und herbeifürung alles guten” (Wissowa 1912: 381).
The problem for the Roman was that the many and frequently obscure rules could easily be
forgotten. Therefore every Roman could unknowingly have neglected proper religious conduct
and be heading towards misfortune. Fortunately the gods could then be trusted to give a sign that
this was the case. This is where omens come in to the picture. Omens are indications of whether
the person, to whom the omen is directed, has behaved in accordance with religious duty or not.
Sometimes there was an indication of what could be done in order to re-establish the proper
relation to the gods. This is the basic cultural model for conceptualizing omens. It is possible to
sketch a figure of this cultural model with the most common terms to describe the various
aspects. The gods are above everything as exchange partners and giving the signs. For
illustration see figure 10.1.
188
“pietate ac religione atque hac una sapientia, quod deorum numine omnia regi gubernarique perspeximus,
omnis gentis nationesque superavimus” (Cic.Har.19). Similar thoughts are expressed in Cic.N.D.2.3. This
impression was also persistent among foreign observers of Roman culture (cf. Polyb.6.56.6, Sall.Cat.12)

194
 Transgression of duties Compliance with duties
towards the gods towards the gods
Gods
Non-rite, vitium Pietas, rite, ius, fas, mos.

Omen Omen

Noun: omen, monstrum, Action Noun: omen, signa

obscena, miraculum, Adj.: faustus, bonus
Procuratio,
portentum, ostentum, signa
Adj.: dirus, detestabilis, piaculum,
funestus, sinister, tristis, postilio
infaustus, adversus

Misfortune Fortune

Clades, periculum, Res prosper, felix, victoria

calamitas

Figure 10.1. Cultural model for conceptualization of omens

A paradigmatic case illustrating this model can be seen in the story about Gaius Flaminius
(Liv.21.62-22.6). It takes place at the height of the second Punic war in 217. Hannibal is
threatening Rome from the North. Gaius Flaminius was elected to the consulship and was
allotted the army lying near Placentia. Flaminius had already been consul once before, in 223,
and had a history of disagreements with the senate. He therefore feared that they would falsify
the auspices and use any means, such as obstruction of rituals, to detain him in the city. 189
Therefore he decided to disregard the religious duties in the city and travel to his army straight
away. This meant that he would not enter office at the temple of Iuppiter Optimus Maximus, he
would not sacrifice to Iuppiter Latiaris at the Latin festival, he would not receive the auspices
and take his vow on the Capitol as was customary. The senate recalled him in order that he could
carry out these obligations to the gods, but he did not comply. A few days later he entered office
with his army with the sacrifice of a calf. That much was performed according to custom. The

189
The consuls had many religious duties they had to carry out before they could leave the city. If a ritual was not
performed properly it had to be carried out again.

195
calf ran away and spattered many of the bystanders with blood. This was the worst possible sign
in a sacrifice (Latte 1960: 388). He was advised to wait for his colleague before engaging
Hannibal in direct battle, but he did not like that advice and ordered them all to attack
immediately. When he mounted his horse it stumbled and threw him over its head. This was seen
as a bad omen. Further the standard bearer reported that he could not pull up the standard. This
was seen as another omen. Flaminius’ army made it to the lake Trasumennus, where Hannibal
attacked the Romans by surprise. This is one of the most memorable defeats of the Romans. Livy
tells us that 15000 Romans and Flaminius himself perished in the battle. It can be seen that the
omens almost literally suggest that Flaminius should wait for the other consul. 190
There are not so many examples of positive omens, but one example involves Publius Scipio
Africanus, who conquered Hannibal (Liv.29.27.12-13). He was renowned for his religious
reverence (Liv.26.19.3-4; Gel.6.1.6). At the close of the second Punic war Scipio was sailing
along the African coast looking for a place to disembark his troops. He asked what the nearest
promontory was called. He was told it was called pulchri promuntorium, the promontory of
beauty. 191 Scipio took this as an omen and landed the ship there. The troops were disembarked
without any problems and eventually Scipio celebrated many victories in Africa. 192
These two stories both relate to probably the most central war in Roman self consciousness,
the second Punic war. Their value is not in whether they describe any historical realities, but in
that they were told and express common assumptions among the Romans. The first shows how
omens were foretelling the defeat of Lake Trasumennus because of neglect of religious duties;
the second shows how an omen foretells the eventual victory because of compliance with
religious duties. We can fit the different components within the cultural model for omens we
found above (see fig.10.2).

190
There are many other stories like this one, see for example Verg.A. 3.358; Ov.Ars.1.212, Ov.Met.10.4;
Cic.Dom.55; Cic.Ver.2.6.18.
191
Loebs edition has “Cape of the Fair God”. This is because Polybius in a parallel passage makes reference to
Apollon. That does not seem an accurate translation. The modern name is Ras Sidi Ali el Mekki.
192
Similar examples can be found in Ov.Met.10.277; Ep.17.159; Pl.Per.4.8.6; Hor.S.3.11.45

196
 Transgression of duties Compliance with duties
towards the gods towards the gods

Not enter office in Rome Gods Scipio’s pietas

No sacrifice to Jupiter
Latiaris
Auspices not taken

Omen
Omen Action
The promontory of beauty
Horse throws off Flaminius Wait for re-
Standards could not be inforcement
pulled up.

Misfortune Fortune

Flaminius and 15000 dead Victory

Figure 10.2. Cultural model of omens with examples

The model rarely includes all parts explicitly. Sometimes, the cause is not disclosed
(Liv.9.14.8), sometimes the actual fortune or misfortune is missing (Pl.Ep.396-399,
Ov.Ep.17.159, Ov.Met.5.546-550) and sometimes there is no action suggested (Cic.Phil.4.4.9).
Omens in Roman culture are always related to the fortune or misfortune of the one it is perceived
to be directed against. They are never about neutral or irrelevant things, such as how many
pigeons will be at the market next time, but always related to the concerns of the interpreter.
Sometimes this is an individual, sometimes a group and sometimes the state. They are conceived
of as signs from the gods, and were integral parts of the most central narratives.

The frequency of omen words

In order to assess how widespread knowledge and awareness of the cultural model behind omens
was. I will investigate how frequently omen words are used. The basic assumption is that the
frequency with which omen words occur, will tell us something about the frequency with which

197
the cultural model of omens, identified in the previous section, was instantiated. To this end I
will use the Perseus project database 193 , which allows you to see the frequency of each word in
the works featured in the database. Only authors who wrote before the Common Era were
chosen, since the meaning seems to change in the principate.
There are three problems facing such an investigation. First, the words identified may actually
be other words. This happens when two different words, because of inflection, yield the same
word. The database cannot analyze which of the words the inflected form comes from, but only
which possible words they could be derived from. In all cases where there are more than one
possibility of deriving the word it gives a frequency in which all cases of doubt are counted
(maximum frequency), and another where all cases of doubt are not counted (minimum
frequency). 194 Second, the meaning of the word may not refer to an omen in all cases. This is the
case for some words, like signum and ostentum, augurium and auspicium, but not in the case of
omen or prodigium for example. There is no way to be certain that all instances mean omen.
Third, some of the words may appear together, which would make the frequency with which
omens were discussed appear larger. In order to test for this I have analyzed which words often
appear together and which don’t. Ostentum and portentum appear together relatively often,
likewise for prodigium and monstrum. Prodigium and omen rarely, if ever, appear together in
this database. This indicates that we can be certain that omen and prodigium frequencies do not
overlap. Ostentum and portentum overlap and portentum may sometimes overlap with
prodigium. We cannot, therefore, just add all the frequencies.

The word signum was excluded because it has many other meanings, and is not typically used
for omens. It would have skewed the results if it were included. Similarly, miraculum only rarely
signifies an omen. It should also be borne in mind that augurium and auspicium only rarely

193
http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/cache/perscoll_Greco-Roman.html (7 October 2006). This database has the most
frequently read Latin and Greek authors and features 5.272.848 Latin words and 7.836.556 Greek words. In most
cases only some of the works by the author in question are featured, not all. For example only the first 10 books of
Livy, and only Cicero’s speeches and letters. Further the database spans early Latin from the end of the 3rd
century BCE untill the 4th century CE. The biggest concentration of sources is around the 1st century BCE to the
1st century CE. The figures of the selected authors can be seen in appendix 4. The Perseus database is not
complete, but large and relatively representative to give an overview of Latin and Greek culture and language.
194
Results will be given in brackets with maximum number of possible instances/minimum number of possible
instances.

198
means omen. In order to see whether these frequencies indicate that the Romans spent a lot of
time communicating about omens or only a little, some control words were included. They were
selected because they indicate things that the Romans also were interested in, such as dinner
(cena) 195 and gladiator fights (gladiator). While no control words can ever be completely
accurate, these two seem to indicate areas of life that the Romans found very interesting. The
results can be seen on Figure 10.3 below

Instances per Omen words in Latin Minimum

10000 words Maximum

1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
Augurium

Auspicium

Monstrum

Ostentum

Portentum
Obscenus

Gladiator
Prodigium
Dirus

Omen

Cena
Words

Figure 10.3. Omen words in Latin

This shows that in the corpus of Latin literature surveyed here dinner and gladiators are just
about as common a subject as omens are and smaller than the auspices. If we summarize the
different distinct words for omen we can see that communication about omens exceeds the
control words. This could indicate that the cultural model for conceptualization of omens was
very widespread 196 and along with it the idea that it was the gods who communicated with the
Romans through signs.

195
It could be as in the case of omens that the vocabulary is equally varied for terms denoting meals. But in Latin
only cibum and epulum could come close. Cibum is a more general term, which is also used for animal fodder the
frequency is therefore also higher (2,51/1,66), while epulum (0,28/0,06) is used for banquets. So cena appears to
be an acceptable indicator of the topic of dinner.
196
It indicates that the cultural model implied by omen words was often communicated. We can try to
estimate it a bit more precisely. Normal audio books in English have about 150-175 words per minute.
While there probably is a difference in word length between Latin and English, it is not likely to be

199
 Using frequencies of omen words as a measure of how widespread the cultural model for
omens was raises some possible objections. First, it might be that, what we are comparing to,
was more widespread, but not talked about as much, that is, people might have engaged in it
without speaking much about it. While this may be true, the simplest assumption is that, all else
being equal allowing for great individual differences in the sources, the Romans wrote about
things they were interested in and not things they found to be of irrelevant. Given the size of the
sample here surveyed these individual differences should be leveled out.
Second, it could be that omens were particularly apt for writing, but not speaking. This
assumes a modern understanding of writing not consistent with the ancient Roman. Roman
writing was read aloud. It might then be that omens were apt for certain genres. That is indeed
the case, but this, can be answered as the previous objection: we must assume that the contents
of the genres of the Romans with great individual differences reflected their interests. A popular
genre must have been popular because it reflected topics of interest. The size of the sample
should even out the individual differences. We find genres employing many omen stories, but we
also find genres that hardly employ them at all.
Third, it could also be argued that the sources only reflect the elite’s view on the world. That is
obviously true since we have no philosophical treatises from the poor slave in the silver mines of
Spain. There does not, however, seem to have been any significant differences in view on
omens between the elite and the lower social classes. This can be seen from Plautus’ comedies,
which were not meant for the elite, but for the masses. They frequently employed omens as part
of the plot and the use and understanding does not differ from the cultural model found in the
“elite sources”.
Fourth, it might be that omen stories were nothing special for the Romans, but something
normal in their immediate cultural surroundings. In order to see whether the Romans really were

great since they are both more or less of the same type in this respect (not agglutinating, which would
have made a difference). If we take the low estimate that the Romans spoke 150 words per minute, an
average of 95 minutes of conversation would pass between the encounter of the word omen if the
frequencies in the corpus used here are sufficiently representative. Add to this the other ways of
signifying omen. Given this very loose and hypothetical calculation a very low estimate would have it
that the average Roman spoke or heard about omens once every one or two hours. It may ofcourse also
be that the sources transmitted to us are completely unrepresentative of what the Romans talked about.
We simply don’t know. I have not been able to come up with any reason that this should be the case.

200
particularly strong believers in omens, we can compare with the Greeks. This is also an
interesting comparison since it has been a common assumption in previous research that Roman
culture was a bad copy of the Greek without any individuality (Feeney 1998). A similar surveyof
omen words, as the one undertaken above, in Greek gives us only one proper word for omens,
namely τεραζ. As in the Roman case, we also have several terms that are sometimes used as
meaning omen. φαντασμα and φασμα can mean omen, but it is not their primary meaning and
they are only rarely used as such. σεμα and συμβολον also have as secondary meanings omen,
but they are used even rarer in the sense of omen. They have all been included for comparison
anyway to give as full a view as possible. As control word the Greek word corresponding to
cena, δειπνον, is used. As in the case of the Latin analysis only authors writing before the
Common Era are included in the analysis. 197 The results can be seen on figure 10.4.

Omen words in Greek

0,70
0,60
0,50
Instances per 0,40 Minimum
10000 words 0,30 Maximum
0,20
0,10
0,00
Phantasma

Phasma

Sema

Sumbolon

Deipnon
Teras

Words

Figure 10.4. Omen words in Greek

Although there is great imprecision with the measure of the control, that is, a possibility that
we are measuring another term, a glance through the results seem to indicate that most instances
really are of δειπνον. This would indicate that the Greeks more rarely engaged in the topic of

197
The exact selection along with the exact figures can be seen in appendix 4

201
omens (as only τεραζ is a reliable indicator) than they did in the topic of dinner. It still may
indicate an enormous appetite, or at least appetite for discussing food, among the Greeks. To
make a direct comparison let us compare the frequency with which the Greeks used omen words
with that of the Romans. The results can be seen in figure 10.5.

Frequency of omen words in Greek and Latin Minimum

Maximum
Instances per
10000 words
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
Monstrum

Phasma
Omen

Phantasma

Sema

Teras
Dirus

Ostentum

Portentum

Sumbolon
Obscenus
Auspicium
Augurium

Prodigium

Word

Figure 10.5. Frequency of omen words in Greek and Latin

From this figure it can be seen that the Romans more often engaged in communication about
omens. There is, though, the possibility that the difference might be attributable to a different
composition of the genres in the two corpora. They are not balanced. In the Greek Corpus, for
example, we find a large amount of rhetorical material. In order to asses whether the results are a
result of different genres, we can compare the two genres that most closely resemble each other,
and which most obviously engage the widest public, namely drama and rhetoric.
Since we only have Roman comedies, we can compare Roman comedy, that is, the works of
Plautus and Terrence, with Greek comedy, that is, the works of Aristophanes. It should be said
that, although they are close there are two important differences: first of all the aristophanic
comedy is Old Greek Comedy, while Plautus and Terrence imitate the New Greek Comedy.
Second, there is a difference between the Roman and Greek comedy. Roman comedy was more

202
for the average people, high as well as low, whereas Greek comedy was more for the elite. The
results of the comparison can be seen in figure 10.6.

Omen words in Greek and Roman comedy

0,70

0,60

0,50

0,40
Instances per Minimum
10000 words Maximum
0,30

0,20

0,10

0,00
Augurium
Auspicium

Sema
Prodigium

Monstrum
Omen

Sumbolon
Portentum

Ostentum

Teras
Word

Figure 10.6. Omen words in Greek and Roman comedy 198

Although the result is not as clear, we see the same trend. The Roman comedy used more
different words and, taken together, more often than Greek comedy did.
The result might still be attributable more to the genre of Comedy, than because of an actual
difference. We can test this by comparing another genre: rhetoric. Speeches are also a good
source for assessing what people knew, since the success of a speech depends on convincing the
audience. Audiences are rarely convinced when they don’t know what is being spoken about. We
can compare Cicero’s speeches, which is the only proper source for Roman speeches we possess,
with the Greek speeches. The results can be seen in figure 10.7.

198
Phantasma and phasma were excluded because there were no instances of them.

203
 Omen words in Greek and Roman Rhetoric

1,2

0,8
Instances per 10000
words Minimum
0,6
Maximum
0,4

0,2

0 Words

Augurium
Prodigium

Portentum

Monstrum

Teras
Auspicium

Dirus
Omen

Sema
Sumbolon
Ostentum
Obscenus
Figure 10.7. Omen words in Greek and Roman Rhetoric

Here it can be seen that the Romans used omens significantly more often in rhetoric than the
Greeks.
It therefore seems safe to say that the ancient Romans often communicated about omens in
comparison with the Greeks. It is also worth noticing that this result goes against the general
assumption that the Roman culture was just a bad copy of the Greek.
The results mentioned above cover a large time span, so it would be obvious to ask whether
there were any differences in frequency of omen words in a temporal perspective. There does
seem to be a difference in the frequency of omen words (see appendix 4). The Augustan poets
Ovid and Virgil have very high frequencies, several times the total average, while Plautus and
Terrence have an average below the total average. Cicero is in general also a bit below the total
average. But he is as well for the control word cena, but not gladiator. This could indicate that
the Romans came to talk increasingly about omens, towards the end of the 1st century BCE.

Summary about omens

There are three ways a physical occurrence can come to be interpreted as an omen. An
occurrence can become salient either because the occurrence in some ways relates to a current

204
concern of the agent, or because the occurrence belongs to a culturally established catalogue of
signs, or finally because the occurrence is so attention demanding in itself that it seems to
demand an explanation. Omens imply a basic cultural model: This model specifies the relation
between the omen and fortune and misfortune by reference to the gods as communicators of the
omen. We further found that this model was widely disseminated in Roman culture. We can
therefore conclude that the conceptualization of omens as signs from the gods of impending
fortune or misfortune was widespread in Roman culture.

The prodigy system

Now let us look in more detail at omens directed towards the state at large. These were called
prodigia. We have reasonably good sources concerning their character, identification and
interpretation. Prodigies were a special kind of omen that circulated among the population and
was eventually reported to a magistrate. This magistrate related it to the senate, which decided
whether it should be accepted or rejected. If it was accepted it was given to one of three priestly
colleges for interpretation. They produced a response on the basis of which the senate decided
what to do.

Brief sketch of acceptance procedure.

There are several distinct parts of what we could call the prodigy system. 199 The overall purpose
of the prodigy system is to identify and interpret prodigies. The reason is that, as we saw in the
previous section, prodigies are omens to the state in general. They are signs that the state is on
the way towards some misfortune. It is therefore necessary to interpret what action is necessary
to avert the impending misfortune and achieve a fortunate result. Prodigies were probably
reported all year, but it was the duty of the consuls, after their assumption of office on the ides of
March 200 , to expiate the prodigies according to the decisions of the senate (Bloch 1963: 120;
Wülker 1903: 27). From a passage in Livy (Liv.22.1.14-16) five distinct parts of the process can
199
For descriptions see (Bloch 1963: 120-129; Linderski 1995: 58; Rosenberger 1998: passim; Wülker 1903: 26-
50). For an analysis of the different parts of the prodigy institution as a distributed cognitive system see (Lisdorf
2004c).
200
We do occasionally hear about prodigies at the end of the year, for example Liv.39.56.6 and Liv.41.28.1. It is
possible that the system changed or Livy moved the annalistic material.

205
be distinguished: nuntiatio, relatio, susceptio, responsum and decision. The prodigies that had
been reported (nuntiatio) to a magistrate were related (relatio) to the senate, who decided
whether or not to accept them (susceptio): the senate then sent the prodigy to one of the
specialized priesthoods for interpretation, which was written down in a responsum which forms
the basis for what the senate decides to do. Let us consider these in more detail.

Nuntiatio
Nuntiatio is the designation used for the report of a potential prodigy to a magistrate. But we
should briefly consider what comes before this process. Different terms are used for how the
prodigies occur: factum (Liv.21.62.1), apperare (Obs.54, 56; August.C.D.3), evenere
(Liv.40.59.6), accidisse (Cic.Div.2.19) and visum (Liv.40.19.1) (cf. Luterbacher 1967: 43-44).
There seems to have been no single term for how the prodigy occurred contrary to the other parts
of the process. Sometimes we hear that a person or persons have themselves seen what is
reported (Liv. 40.19.1; Gel.4.6.2), but more commonly we just hear that they were reported.
There does not seem to have been any restrictions as to who could report it. We hear of reports
by priests (Liv. 40.19.2; Gel.4.6.2), administrators (Strabo 6.2.11; Liv.32.1), a governor
(στρατηγον), proconsuls, a propraetor and finally a private person (45.16.5) (Wülker 1903: 26-
27). That it was probably relatively common to report prodigies can be seen from a senatorial
decree from 193 BCE that stipulates that a prodigy of earthquakes should not be reported when it
has already been reported and treated. 201 Some reports were written down and sent to the senate.
An example of this is a proconsul writing from Macedonia to report a prodigy (Liv.32.1.11).
In a way prodigies resemble urban myths. Before they were reported they had probably gone
through a period of oral circulation. This, at least, is the impression we get from Cicero. In De
responso haruspicum we hear of a prodigy which has not been reported yet, but which is
apparently widely known (Cic.Har.62). Another indication that oral circulation was prior to a
report is the existence of doublets. Sometimes we hear of a prodigy and just a couple of years

201
The passage runs: “Ne quis, quo die terrae motu nuntiato feriae indicate essent (..) eo die alium terrae motum
nuntiaret” (Liv.34.55.4). The passage is a bit difficult and has been used by Kurt Latte to show that the Romans
used prodigies as manipulation (Latte 1960: 265-268). This however is pushing the conclusion too far, since the
passage only stipulates that when a prodigy has already been reported and treated it should not be reported again.
It seems to be more concerned with bureaucratic efficiency than with manipulation.

206
later we hear it repeated (Rawson 1991a: 4-5). An example is the birth of a colt with five legs in
Lucania in 200 BCE (Liv.31.12.7) and the same in Bruttium in 199 (Liv.32.1.11). It seems that
the prodigy story kept circulating and was eventually reported again as a new prodigy.
Let us investigate what qualities of occurrences made them prodigies. 202 We saw that there
were three ways omens in general could be detected. But since prodigies are not directed against
the interpreter directly and not interpreted at the spot, they differ slightly from omina: they do
not relate to an individual’s own private concerns. Salience can therefore not be achieved by
reference to an individual’s personal current concerns. Some were identified according to
common knowledge, but this was only a minority. 203 We should therefore expect prodigies to be
more attention demanding in order to achieve salience. In chapter 5 above we found that
minimally counterintuitive events were more attention demanding than bizarre ones, which in
turn were more attention demanding than normal events. We should therefore expect more
minimally counterintuitive, than bizarre and more bizarre, than normal prodigies.

In order to assess whether this was the case, all extant prodigies from the year 218 to 44
BCE 204 were rated according to the above mentioned descriptions of counterintuitive, bizarre
and common concepts based on Boyer’s and Barrett’s work. Common concepts were those
which were not either counterintuitive or bizarre. Determining whether a given prodigy involved
202
The following section is based on (Lisdorf 2004a)
203
Some prodigies do resemble each other and probably many persons knew of typical prodigies (Lisdorf 2004a:
167), but they are not encoded in an explicit body of knowledge like the Babylonian omens (Labat 1933).
204
218 BCE is chosen as the starting date because prodigies seem only to become regular from this date. 44 BCE
is chosen as a somewhat arbitrary end, since the prodigies become irregular somewhere around this date. 44 BCE
marks the official end of the republic with the assassination of Caesar. It is after this time, and to a certain extent
also before, difficult to ascertain whether the system is still working, since the republic as it had existed prior to
the assassination of Caesar was significantly changed. Good lists of the known prodigies exist in (MacBain 1982;
Rasmussen 2003). They have been used as a starting point, but not followed in all instances. In appendix 5 I have
listed all the individual observations and discussed possible points of contention. The basic premise for labeling
an observation as a prodigy is that it seems to be directed at the state and has been treated according to the prodigy
system as described here. I have therefore not included many observations described as omens, which Rasmussen
has included. Other kinds of occurrences such as ritual faults or consuls’ death that may have been portentous but
not technically prodigies, have not either been included when they did not go through the prodigy system, but
were dealt with in isolation. One important justification for this selective use of the sources is that our main
sources for the prodigies were writing during the principate, where the prodigy system known from republican
times had collapsed. This sometimes makes them blend private omens with public prodigies. That said, it is rare
that we have any difficulty in identifying a prodigy as such. Since the intitial publication of this research in 2004,
further research has revealed another 10 prodigies. There is therefore a slight inconsistency between the tables
presented her and the number of prodigies in appendix 5. The prodigies do not, however, differ in character from
the others in the list, so it does not change the general conslusions.

207
counterintuitive concepts, that is violations of domain-level expectations, was relatively easy, but
rating whether a prodigy involved a common or bizarre concept, that is, kind-level violations,
often proved to be more a question of degree. A case could be made for most common concepts
being bizarre, as they do involve some kind of violation of expectations. 205 An example is the
birth of triplets, which is a violation of regularity. Another example is storms, which are
sometimes reported and sometimes not. The bizarre concepts often depart from culturally
specific expectations, hence the animals in awkward places: wolves or owls within the city walls
or in temples during the day. These prodigies are only bizarre given a kind-level expectancy for
wolves to remain in nature outside the city. The largest group of bizarre prodigies is lightning
strikes against temples or sacred areas accounting for 19% of the total amount of prodigies.
These have been categorized as bizarre, because this clearly has been felt to be a violation of
expectations concerning sacred areas, whereas lightning strikes against normal buildings were
not seen thus. Another possibility is that lightning being a central part of Roman and Italic
religion, often seen as expressions of divine will, had a special significance when it struck sacred
areas, which in Roman culture was the property of the given god. The ratings were checked by
an independent rater familiar with Roman prodigies and the theories of counterintuitive and
bizarre concepts. Cases of doubt were discussed. Examples of what prodigies were classified as
counterintuitive, bizarre and common can be found in appendix 6.

Year BCE
218-190 189-162 160-132 131-103 102-74 73-44 Total
Counter Intuitive 0.55 0.60 0.63 0.55 0.58 0.38 0.56
Bizarre 0.43 0.32 0.35 0.39 0.39 0.59 0.41
Common 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.04
N 212 106 51 77 101 58 605

Table 10.1. Distribution of types of concepts in the prodigy reports from 218-44 BCE

The results can be seen in table 10.1. The distribution fits the findings of Barrett & Nyhof, and
Boyer & Ramble. It follows the expectation that prodigies would be attention demanding:
counterintuitive prodigies are more frequent (56%) than bizarre prodigies (41%) and the

205
This seems to be a general problem (cf. Norenzayan, Atran, Faulkner, & Schaller 2006: 544)

208
common prodigies, so to say, are quite uncommon (4%). To test for temporal differences the
years were divided into periods of 29 years 206 and common prodigies were eliminated, as the
count was too small. When we look at these findings (table 10.2) we see a significant difference
in the distribution of counterintuitive and bizarre prodigies (χ²(5) = 11.361, p< .05). The
differences are found especially in the period from 189 to 132. The overall tendency can be seen
in all periods except the period 73-44, where the tendency is inverted and we have more bizarre
than counterintuitive prodigies. The distribution in this period can be attributable to the fact that
many accepted prodigies are probabæy omina to big men and as we saw above omina are not
typically counterintuitive.

Year BCE
218-190 189-160 160-132 131-103 102-74 73-44 Total
Counter Intuitive 0.56 0.65 0.64 0.58 0.60 0.39 0.58
Bizarre 0.44 0.35 0.36 0.42 0.40 0.61 0.42
N 208 98 50 72 98 56 582

Table 10.2. Distribution of counterintuitive compared to bizarre concepts in the prodigy

reports from 218-44 BCE

The overall distribution may still be attributable to a few single years where a lot of
counterintuitive prodigies were observed. If that is the case we would not have a general trend.
In order to test for this, each year was coded as either having most counterintuitive, bizarre or
common prodigies. The results can be seen in table 10.3. We find the same pattern: the largest
number of years has most counterintuitive prodigies, then bizarre and fewest have an equal
amount. No years have most common prodigies. The difference between years with most
counterintuitive and bizarre prodigies is significant (χ²(2) = 10,133, p<.001).

206
29 years was chosen to have an arbitrary period that divides the total number of years, 174.

209
 Year BCE
218-190 189-162 160-132 131-103 102-74 73-44 Total
Years with most CI 16 12 8 9 9 2 56
Years with most BIZ 9 5 2 6 3 2 27
Years with equal 2 2 3 1 4 1 13
N(reporting years) 27 19 13 16 16 5 96

Table 10.3 Amount of counterintuitive and bizarre prodigies per reporting year.

It therefore seems safe to conclude that the more attention demanding the occurrence the more
probable was it that it would be identified as a prodigy. Prodigies are thus a type of sign that in
itself is attention demanding and thus achieves salience as an omen.

Relatio
The new consuls seem to have related the reported prodigies to the senate (Liv.22.1.14;
Cic.Har.62). This is one of the obligatory actions the newly elected consuls had to carry out
when they entered office. In Livy (Liv.22.1.14) we hear of an interrogation by the senate of the
persons who reported the prodigy, but this was hardly the usual procedure.

Susceptio
Susceptio means acceptance of a report as a prodigy. The principles behind acceptance or
rejection has been the focus of much previous research (Krauss 1933; Latte 1960; Luterbacher
1967; MacBain 1982; Rasmussen 2003; Rawson 1991a; Rosenberger 1998; Warde-Fowler 1971;
Wülker 1903). Unfortunately it is one of the most obscure parts of the process. Except for two
examples we only have evidence of the prodigies that were accepted. We are therefore left to
guess what principles lay behind the acceptance procedure.
The key evidence is two prodigies that were not accepted. The passage runs as follows: “Two
portents were not treated as public matters, the one because it took place in a privately owned
spot: “Titus Marcius Figulus reported that a palm had sprung up in his catch-basin”. The other
because it had occurred in a non-Roman place: “at Fregellae, in the house of Lucius Atreus, a
spear which he had bought for his son’s service in the army was said to have blazed during the

210
day for more than two hours in such a way that the fire consumed none of it.” 207 From this
passage previous research deduced two principles: a prodigy could not be accepted if it had
occurred in a private (privatus) place and consequently had to be in a public (publicus) place. It
could not either be accepted if it occurred in a foreign (peregrinus) place, it had to be in a Roman
(romanus) place. 208 That is not altogether unreasonable assumptions. The problem is that it does
not account for all the known prodigies, since there are examples of prodigies occurring in both
foreign and private places. Let us start with the private prodigies.
Until recently it has been completely ignored that there are examples of private prodigies
(Rasmussen 2003: 220; Rosenberger 1998: 29, n.52). A small number of prodigies occur in
houses which are private areas (Liv.41.16.6; Obs.51; Obs. 53). Another example of private
prodigies is prodigies of hermaphrodites or monstrous births. They must likewise have occurred
on private ground (MacBain 1982: 27). We can therefore conclude that the rule that prodigies
had to occur in a public place is not a necessary rule, although it does fit most occurrences.
The Romans did distinguish between foreign land (ager peregrinus) and Roman land (ager
Romanus), but the Romans also operated with many other categories in between that are difficult
to put a clear juridical term on. The individual relations between a city and Rome could be very
different. Prodigies are reported from all these different categories of places. 209
Attempts have been made to reconcile the discrepancy between the rule and the known
prodigies. Franz Luterbacher thought that the distinction was just not very rigid (Luterbacher
1967: 30). He has, though, been criticized for this since it is an ad hoc explanation. Elizabeth
Rawson explained the discrepancy by stipulating that it came from the integration of local
prodigy lists into the Roman ones after the areas had become Roman (Rawson 1991a: 5-9).
Unfortunately there is no evidence of such local collections. Bruce MacBain thinks that the
distinction between public and private, and Roman and foreign had simply disappeared

207
Duo non suscepta prodigia sunt, alterum, quod in private loco factum esset, palmam enatam in inpluvio suo T.
Marcius Figulus nuntiabiat, alterum, quod in loco peregrino; Fregellis in domo L.Atrei hasta, quam filio militia
emerat, interdiu plus duas horas arsisse, ita ut nihil eius ambureret ignis, dicebatur (Liv.43.13.6). These two
prodigies are listed at the end of the other prodigies of the year. There are several puzzling features, most
importantly that Livy or his source overlooks, as pointed out by (Rasmussen 2003: 219-223), that they are both
actually private prodigies.
208
As demonstrated by Susanne William Rasmussen, this is still the most common view (Rasmussen 2003: 219-
223)
209
Bruce MacBain has shown that 21 % of the prodigies from outside of Rome come from foreign land (MacBain
1982: 25). For a thorough treatment of the question see (Szemler 1972: 34-36).

211
(MacBain 1982: 28). This does not, however, occur in Roman society in general. This solution
therefore raises more questions than it answers: Why would the senate suddenly stop making
such discriminations, which are absolutely central to Roman culture all the way through the
republic and well into the principate? We can conclude that previous efforts have not been able
to elucidate the basic principles behind acceptance of prodigies.

Since the theoretical model proposed here assumes that omens activate an inference of a
counterintuitive agent, and since prodigies were often explicitly conceptualized as
communications, most often warnings, from the gods, it would be natural to assume that they
followed principles from normal communication. According to the relevance theory of Dan
Sperber and Deirdre Wilson, reviewed above in chapter 4, a communicative stimulus should be
maximally relevant. A communicative stimulus is interpreted as being the most relevant the
communicator could have chosen to communicate his informative intention to the interpreter.
Given that the informative intention of a prodigy is already known to be a warning to the Roman
state, the most relevant communicative stimulus is one that involves the Roman state. We should
therefore expect that the stronger the connection of a prodigy to the Roman state, the more likely
it was that it would be interpreted as a prodigy to the Roman state. The two previously suggested
principles can be derived from this principle since public as opposed to private and Roman and
as opposed to foreign land more directly involve the Roman state. We can therefore explain the
two rejected prodigies by reference to only one rule and not two.
It might also explain all the excepted prodigies. An all round rough measure of the degree of
connection to the Roman state would be simple distance to Rome. Based on the assumption that
prodigies were taken as communicative stimuli from a counterintuitive agent and the principle of
optimal relevance, we should expect it to be more probable that a prodigy was accepted the
closer it was to Rome. Fortunately this can be tested since we know the place, and therefore the
distance to Rome, for many prodigies. Consequently, we would expect the number of prodigies
accepted to increase the closer we get to Rome. Mathematically that is a correlation between
distance and number of prodigies.

212
 The number of prodigies for each named location was summarized 210 and the beeline distance
from this location to Rome was measured based on the map in Putzger Historischer Weltatlas
(Putzger, Hansel, & Leisering 1961). We could have taken the raw correlation between number
of prodigies for each location and its distance to Rome, but we are not interested in exact
distance, and single observations from close by places would have skewed the data: if we had
observation of a single prodigy from 10 different places very close to Rome and only one
kilometer apart, and a few from one place 500 kilometers from Rome the correlation coefficient
would appear mathematically to indicate a function linearly increasing with distance although
the reverse is true. In order to avoid this, the observations were grouped in ranges of 25
kilometers. That would also have been more in accordance with the perceptions of the Romans:
they would not have taken out a map and measured the precise distance, but rather have made a
loose assessment of distance. In the context of ancient Roman transportation 25 kilometers
would have been a salient difference in distance. In consequence a measure of distance based on
ranges of 25 kilometers appears to be a better measure than exact distance. The number of
prodigies in each 25 kilometer zone will then be summarized.

The distances for each observation were recoded into a variable designating the range. Thus
the range 0-25 km was recoded as 1, 26-50 km as 2 and so forth. There were three outliers (more
than 500 kilometers away). They were from Syracuse, Croton and Etna. They were excluded
since they were most likely omens. 211 Their inclusion would, however, not change the
conclusion. The number of prodigies for each range was summarized. A scatter plot with
distance by range on the abscissa and summarized number of prodigies for each range on the
ordinate indicated a possible logarithmic function, why a regression analysis for a linear as well
as a logarithmic model was made. The R square for the linear model was 0,53, which is
significant (p<0.001), but the R square for the Logarithmic was 0,82, and an ANOVA revealed a
significant result F(1,14)= 67.15 p<0.001. A scatter plot and the curve fit can be seen on figure
10.8.

210
The same list as in the previous section was used. See Appendix 5
211
They are all only known through Iulius Obsequens, who mixes all manners of omens, prodigies and
weird occurrences without distinction.

213
 Prodigies

140,00 Observed
Logarithmic

120,00

100,00

80,00

60,00

40,00

20,00

0,00

0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00

Distance

Figure 10.8. Correlation between number of accepted prodigies and distance.

We can see a very clear relation between distance and number of accepted prodigies. This is
consistent with what we expected based on the hypothesis that prodigies were taken as
communicative stimuli from a counterintuitive agent and the acceptance of them as pertaining to
the Roman state at large was based on the basic communicative principle relevance. There are
some reservations though. First, it should be mentioned that the distribution is also consistent
with other explanations: we would also expect that more prodigies would be reported to Rome
the closer the location since people would come to Rome more frequently the closer they lived.
The distribution would thus reflect the prodigies reported to the senate. This explanation would,
however, also assume that the senate blindly accepted every prodigy. The only way to decide

214
whether this or the alternative explanation proposed here is closer to historical reality, would be
to measure the accepted prodigies against the rejected. We have two rejected prodigies which
indicate that there was a conscious selection, but that is all we know. It then depends on whether
this is seen as something usual or unusual. Were prodigies often or rarely rejected? The mention
by, Livy noted above, that earthquake prodigies should not be reported, seems to indicate that the
general willingness to report prodigies was great, but the number of accepted prodigies rarely
exceed twenty. That would indicate a large number of rejected prodigy reports. All this is
ofcourse almost pure conjecture. I personally would find it peculiar if the senate accepted any
prodigy, especially since we know that they sometimes called in witnesses and also actively
rejected prodigies.
Another possible objection is that the distance is measured in beeline distance, whereas the
experienced distance through the roads would have been what was important. It would be a
minor thesis of its own just to calculate the distances through the actual roads known and even
that changed with time as new roads were constructed. We are therefore left with this admittedly
rough measure.

In conclusion, what can be gathered from the sources about the acceptance of Roman prodigies
with all the possible imprecissions is consistent with the hypothesis that they were accepted
according to the principle of relevance as stipulated in relevance theory. This interpretation is
simpler than previous explanations that stipulated two principles, for both of which many
exceptions could be found in the sources.

Responsum
Following the acceptance of a prodigy the senate would in most cases not be able to interpret it
itself. They would therefore send it to a priestly college of specialists for an interpretation. These
could be the decemviri, the haruspices or the pontifices. They were expected to produce a
responsum which, as a minimum, included the necessary expiatory rites (procuratio). The first

215
two seem to have been used in the case of more uncommon prodigies, whereas the pontifices and
the senate itself dealt with common prodigies. 212

Decemviri The full name of the decemviri was decemviri sacris faciundis “the ten men for the
performance of sacred actions”. This is a common way of designating a group with a special
purpose. Originally there were only two. In 367 it was raised to 10. Sulla further increased the
number to fifteen, why they are sometimes called the quindecemviri (Wissowa 1912: 534). It
was one of the four major priestly colleges (Beard 1990: 44; Szemler 1972: 21). It ranked as the
third most prestigious after the pontifices and the augurs (Szemler 1972: 186-187). In order to
become a decemvir, the person had to be co-opted by members of the college (Wissowa 1912:
535). This meant that the Roman elite occupied the college.
The primary task of the decemviri was to consult the Sibylline Books (Gel.1.19.11). As we saw
above in chapter 9, the Sibylline Books were a collection of oracles, which was kept in the
temple of Apollo on the Capitol. The most important content of the books, and what we hear
about, was the expiatory rites needed in the case of a prodigy (Var.R.1.1.3). This was most often
rites, but it could be the institution of games 213 , or the import of a god. 214 The books could only
be consulted at the initiative of the senate. This happened in cases of great crisis or misfortune
for the state or in the case of prodigies (Rosenberger 1998: 51). What we know of the
interpretations of the decemviri is thus that they only focused on the ritual action necessary to
expiate the prodigy. They did not speculate in the causes or the possible outcomes.

Haruspices The haruspices are, contrary to the decemviri, not a traditional Roman priestly
college. The term is used for a wide range of religious specialists ranging all social classes
(North 1990: 56-61). Those we hear of that interpret prodigies were Etruscan experts most likely
derived from the elite (MacBain 1982: 43). Nothing is known about the organization of these

212
Concerning the general procedure used by the senate to get advice from the priestly colleges see (Szemler
1972: 34-36). From the sources we can gather that the decemviri were questioned alone 36 times and with others
15 times, the haruspices alone 23 times and with others 13 times, the pontifices alone have only been questioned
once in 213 BCE and with others 7 times (Wülker 1903: 33-37). Most often, however, we don’t hear who were
questioned.
213
As the Ludi Apolinares in 212 (Liv.25.12.11) or the Ludi Saeculares in 249 (Liv.Per 49).
214
As is the case with Asklepios because of a plague in 293 (Liv.10.47.7) and Magna Mater from Pessinus in 205
(Liv.29.10.5-6).

216
haruspices in Republican times. They could very well have been an ad hoc group called in to
give advice. Since they were Etruscan, they drew on the Etruscan art of divination, which was
different from the traditional Roman in many ways. It gave more detailed and richer
interpretations and could produce predictions (Thulin 1906b; Thulin 1906a). This was something
alien to traditional Roman divination (See above chapter 9). This meant that responses from the
haruspices were richer in their interpretation compared to the decemviri’s and pontifices’, who
were content with identifying the proper rites. Although they were of Etruscan origin we have to
keep in mind that the Etruscan elite was thoroughly Romanized in this period (Rawson 1991b:
294).
We are in the unique position that we have a responsum from the haruspices through Cicero,
which gives us insight into how prodigies were interpreted by them. Let us take it line by line 215 :
1) Loca sacra et religiosa profana haberi (Cic.Har.9): “sacred and holy places have been profaned. That

means that religious duties have been violated.”

2) in agro Latiniensis auditus est strepitus cum fremitu ( Cic.Har.20): “in the Latiensis a groaning noise

was heard.” This is the prodigy.

3) Exauditus in agro propinquo et suburbano est strepitus quidam reconditus et horribilis fremitus

armorum (Cic.Har.20): “a loud and groaning noise of weapons was heard.” 216 This is also a prodigium

possibly a reiteration.

4) Postiliones esse Iovi, Saturno, Neptuno, Telluri, dis caelestibus (Cic.Har.20): “compensation is due to

Jupiter, Saturn, Tellus the Gods of the Heavens.”

5) Ludos minus diligenter factos pollutosque (Cic.Har.21): “the games have been celebrated without

enough care and polluted”. Games were also religious actions and dedicated to the gods.

6) Oratores contra ius fasque interfectos (Cic.Har.34): “envoys have been slain against all faith and

right.”

7) Fidem iusque iurandum neglectum (Cic.Har.36): “trust and sworn oaths have been neglected.”

215
Translations are from (Beard et al 1998: II, 176). This is a reworking of a part of (Lisdorf 2004c)
216
This is my own paraphrase, since the line is not included in the translation of (Beard et al 1998: II, 176).

217
8) Sacrificia vetusta occultaque minus diligenter facta pollutaque (Cic.Har.37): “old and secret rites have

been celebrated without enough care and polluted.”

9) Ne per optimatum discordiam dissensionemque patribus princibusque caedes periculaque. Creentur,

auxilioque divinitus deficiantur, qua re ad unum imperium provinciae redeant exercitusque deminutioque

accedat (Cic.Har.40): “in order that murders and perils should not be caused by discord and dissension

amongst the senators and the leading men; and that there should be no lack of divine help in preventing

the power falling to a single man and the army from weakening and losing its strength.”217

10) Ne occultis consilis res publica laedatur (Cic.Har.55): “in order that the Republic be not harmed by

secret plans.”

11) Ne deterioribus repulsisque honos augeatur. (Cic.Har.56): “in order that honor should not be

increased for men of low worth and political failure.”

12) Ne rei publicae status commutetur (Cic.Har.60): “in order that the basis of the Republic remain

unchanged.”

We can summarize this in the following way. Religious duties have been violated: sacred areas

have not been respected (1), games have not been conducted with sufficient care (5), legates

have been killed (6), oaths have been neglected (7), and ancient rites have not been properly

carried out (8). There is a prodigy: noise and noise of weapons (2 and 3). 218 There is a

description of the disasters that will happen if nothing is done: hostility will lead to killings, all

power will fall into the hands of one man (9), secret plots will destroy the state (10), and

unworthy people will increase their honor (11). There is a specification of what has to be done:

Compensatory sacrifice (4). What will happen if this is done: the status of the state will not

change (12), and by implication that killings will not occur (9) and that power will not fall into

217
The translation is awkward because the Latin text probably is corrupt.
218
This type of prodigies is not uncommon, noise: Obs. 45, 46, 48, 53, 57, 59; Sound of weapons: Obs. 45; Liv.
24.44.8.

218
the hands of one man (10), secret plots will not destroy the state (9), divine assistance will be

achieved (9). This text fits with the cultural model we found for omens in general, as can be seen

from figure 10.9:

Transgression of duties Compliance with duties

towards the gods towards the gods

1, 5, 6, 7 & 8 Gods

Omen
Omen

2&3 Action

4
Misfortune Fortune

9, 10, 11 9, 10, 11, 12

Figure 10.9. The cultural model of omens as seen in De Responso Haruspicum

Pontifices The pontifices were the most prestigious priesthood in republican times. 219 Their

responsibility was sacral law: sacra and caeremonia (Cic.Leg.2.21). They had access to a large

amount of written sources on religious details: libri pontificales, acta, indigitamenta ritualia,

commentarii, fasti and annals (Szemler 1972: 22). They could issue responsa and decreta like

other priesthoods, when asked to do so by the senate (Linderski 1986: 2154-2155; Wissowa

1912: 395). There is no evidence of the method they used to interpret. It does, however, seem

likely that they consulted their records. They after all had access to the records of previous

prodigies in the annales.

219
This can be seen from Cic.Dom.1. On the special position of the pontifices see (Szemler 1972: 22-24). For
general treatments on the pontifices see (Beard 1990: 19-25; Wissowa 1912: 501-523)

219
 The actual interpretations we hear from the pontifices are standard Roman sacrifices, such as
sacrifice of hostiae maiores (Liv.27.4.15) or a one day supplicatio (Liv.39.22.4), which are two
of the most common expiations. They may have gathered them from the records, since they were
the religious bookkeepers of the Roman republic.

Decision
The senate could in principle decide whether they wanted to accept the prodigy or not (Linderski
1993: 58; Wülker 1903: 38f). We have only one example where the senate rejected a responsum.
The story is from Aulus Gellius who has it from the Annales Maximi and Valerius Maximus.
Here it seems that the haruspices had willfully given a wrong interpretation and admitted to it. In
this case naturally the senate did not follow the advice.

Summary about prodigies

In this chapter we have dealt with the acceptance procedure of prodigies in the Roman republic.
This has allowed us to see in more detail certain aspects of how omens were identified and
interpreted. Prodigies were directed towards the Roman state in general and differed from omina
in that those who identified it did not interpret it. What is done by one person for omina: the
identification, relation to the persons concern, interpretation and decision on action, is distributed
to several different persons and institutions for the prodigies.
We found that the occurrences perceived as prodigies were more attention demanding than
normal day to day occurrences. It was stipulated that this attention demanding character of the
occurrence would make it salient and turn it into a communicative sign from a counterintuitive
agent. Therefore it was assumed that the principle according to which prodigies were accepted or
rejected as signs to the Roman state seemed to be derived from normal communication. This
principle was identified as the principle of relevance of the communicative sign. The distribution
of all accepted prodigies in the period and the two not accepted was found to be consistent with
this hypothesis.
Prodigies were conceptualized along the lines of the cultural model we found for omens in
general. This could be seen in the interpretations of the prodigies. The different priestly colleges
give emphasis to different aspects of this model, but all supply an action to be performed to

220
achieve success. The prodigies were interpreted by the highest authorities giving the
interpretations credibility. The direct prestige of these authorities increase the credibility value of
the information entailed in the interpretation.

Conclusion

We found that the Roman vocabulary for omens was exceptionally rich. In Latin there are
numerous nouns describing different types of omens, and even more different types of adjectives
describing them as good or bad. Although there is great diversity in the terms they all build on
one basic model, according to which omens were conceptualized. This model (cf. fig. 10.1) first
of all identifies omens as an utterance from the gods or Jupiter to a person. The content of the
utterance is that the person is on a path towards either success or misfortune. The success or
misfortune depends on prior transgression of or compliance with duties towards the gods. In
some cases the omen also specifies that something can be done to avert an impending
misfortune. Since all omen words build on this basic model an analysis of a corpus of the most
important republican sources was carried out to assess whether it was often communicated.
Compared to two control words (dinner and gladiator) that also specified things that the Romans
took an interest in, and therefore most likely communicated a lot about, omen words were a lot
more frequently employed in the corpus. This suggests that the Romans really did communicate
about this relatively often, and that the cultural model was very widespread. A comparison with
a similar Greek corpus showed that the Greeks did not communicate about omens to the same
degree. It was also found that this difference was there when controlled for genre. The Romans
were simply a lot more interested in omens than their neighbors. We can therefore not explain
Roman omen practice with simple historical influence from the Greeks.
In chapter 5 we stipulated that an omen is an event that achieves salience in one of three ways.
We found all three ways among the Roman omens. The normal omens, primarily described as
omina and related to individuals, achieved salience by the relation of the event to the individual’s
current concerns. The event was not in itself something remarkable. We also found a number of
omens that were salient because they were part of a catalogue of signs. These signs ultimately
derived from the discipline of the augurs and thereby from their written records. We also found

221
this type among the prodigia, where the explanation similarly is that they were written down.
The last type of events becomes salient in virtue of their character as attention demanding. We
found that the omen type called prodigia, were of this type. Prodigies were more attention
demanding and therefore were identified as omens in virtue of the event itself.
Since omens were conceptualized according to the cultural model, we were able to offer a
possible explanation of the spatial and numerical distribution of the accepted and rejected
prodigies found in the prodigy records. Following the simple principle of relevance of the
relevance theory of Dan Sperber and Deirdre Wilson it was expected that the closer to Rome a
prodigy had occurred the more likely it would be accepted. An analysis of the extant prodigies
with known provenance revealed that the number of prodigies accepted was exponentially
decreasing with distance. At the same time the principle of relevance offered an explanation of
the two only known rejected prodigies with recourse to only one principle, where two had been
stipulated earlier.
The fact that prodigies, as a representative of the basic cultural model for omens, were handled
by the senate and the most prestigious priestly colleges in Roman culture, would have functioned
as a legitimating context giving credibility to the cultural assumption that the gods could
communicate whether you were on a path towards fortune or misfortune.
Now we can connect the factors that seem important in determining the dissemination of omens
(see fig.10.10).

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 Dissemination of omens

Salient event
Credibility
l Cultural
model
Unexpected Catalogue of Current
event signs Concerns Direct
prestige
Frequency of
communication
about omens
Social hierarchy
Distribution of prestige

Figure 10.10. Dissemination of omens

We can see that there are plenty of opportunities for a salient event to become an omen.
Unexpected events probably never seize to occur, and people never seize to have concerns. The
catalogues of signs may disappear, but this category was not found to be the most important for
the Romans. We also see that the credibility value of omens was high because prodigies were
treated officially. Omens were not considered, as they would become, futile superstition, but a
central part of official policy. Furthermore omens were often the subject of communication. This
would have given the effect of constantly sensitizing the Romans to the possibility of the gods
giving a sign. This is what we called a “cultural prime” in chapter 5. While the number of salient
events is probably constant the last two factors are probably important factors. The wide
dissemination is self reinforcing: the more people talk about omens, the more they are sensitized
to them and the more they identify omens, which in turn makes them talk more about it. The
only thing that can stop this is if the credibility value is low. Today, people very rarely bother to
tell that a black cat ran across the road, because the credibility value of the omen is so low. The
same would have been the case for the Romans. As long as they believed that omens gave
credible knowledge about the future they would keep talking about it. In the period under

223
consideration here the cultural model for omens is legitimized by the state in their treatment of
prodigies.

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Chapter 11 - Conclusion

In the introduction it was stated that the purpose of this dissertation was to answer the basic
question “why did divination pervade Roman culture through centuries”. In order to do this, it
was argued that it was necessary to build a general theoretical model of divination as a cultural
phenomenon. Therefore the dissertation was divided into two primary halves. The first part,
consisting of chapters 1-6, was aimed at building a general theoretical model of divination. The
second part, consisting of chapters 7-10, was aimed at an empirical analysis of the Roman
sources in light of this theoretical model of divination.
Chapter 1 investigated the prehistory and history of the Latin word divinatio from which
divination is derived. It showed that the word is ultimately derived from an Indo-European root.
It seems originally to have meant something like “making something clear”. This suggestion is
new compared to prior etymologies of divination, which have based the understanding of the
term on something involving gods. The alternative etymology is argued to provide a more
coherent account for the use of the term in historical times, most notably in the criminal process
where nothing godly is involved. It was not until Cicero’s De divinatione that the word came to
be used as a general term describing what we today would call divination. It was further shown
that the work of Cicero has had a lasting effect until modern times on how divination as a
general phenomenon has been conceptualized. According to Cicero two basic types of divination
exists: natural and artificial. This forms the basis of his typology and analysis of divination. It is
based on an ancient stoic conception of the gods and the soul. An analysis of key modern lexicon
entries on the general conceptualization of divination revealed that Cicero’s ancient stoic model
was implicitly and explicitly still forming the basis of how divination was conceptualized. It was
argued that this conceptualization is not necessarily helpful in scientific work, since it is based
on a stoic ontology involving souls and gods. Such entities are not consistent with a modern
scientific worldview.
Chapter 2 surveyed modern theories of divination, something that has not been attempted on an
interdisciplinary level before. It was argued that modern reflection on divination as a general
cultural phenomenon started in the end of the 19th century. It was stimulated by the colonial

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encounter of people using it to a great extent. The basic problem facing scholars was why the
primitives differed from the modern Europeans. The first explanations were formulated in
evolutionist terms, but two distinctive threads seem to run through the research history. The first
thread, the British, explained the difference in terms of a deficiency among the primitive to make
inductive generalizations. This reflects the British empiricist philosophical tradition. In France
the rationalist tradition resulted in a concern for collective representations and classification.
With the work of Evans-Pritchard something new happened. He combined elements of these two
traditions with a new current that emphasized extended fieldwork. This produced the landmark
study Witchcraft, Oracles, and Magic among the Azande. Subsequent research has to a great
extent been an elaboration on these early foundations. Although many important theoretical
explanations have been offered, it was argued that two important points are lacking in previous
research. First, there is no sufficient account of the cognitive basis for divination. Second, there
is no account of the dissemination and historical dynamics of divination.
In chapter 3, the outline of a theoretical model of divination that would make up for the
deficiencies in the previous research, was sketched. As a starting point a stipulative definition of
divination was offered: “Divination is the acquisition of credible knowledge about matters not
otherwise available to normal human perception or reasoning”. From the point of view of
cognitive science, the core function of divination is a representation of a communicative relation
with a counterintuitive agent, who has access to matters not available to normal human
perception or reasoning. There are two basic ways this relation can lead to acquisition of
knowledge by the human communicant. Either the divination is represented as a response or an
unsolicited address to the human communicant from the counterintuitive agent. By looking at the
basic cognitive process behind divination it was possible to provide a theoretic platform that
could integrate ritual divination and omens. This has not been attempted since the breakdown of
evolutionist anthropology. The basic character of divination as a communicative interaction with
a counterintuitive agent forms the basis of the distinction between two types of divination, which
were termed impetrative and oblative divination. This typology escapes the Ciceronian
identification of natural and artificial divination as the basic distinction of divination. Expanding
on this typology, divination in general was argued to be composed of three primary elements that

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are necessary to facilitate the cognitive representation of a communicative interaction with a
counterintuitive agent: motivation, sign production and interpretation.
In the case of impetrative divination there are five empirical components: the motivation of the
questioner, the operator, the technique he performs, the sign produced by the technique and the
interpreter of this sign. In oblative divination only sign production differs, since in this case a
salient event is the empirical component. These components are related to each other in ways
that were treated in the subsequent chapters.
Chapter 4 investigated the different elements of impetrative divination. It was argued that
motivation is ultimately derived from emotion, which in turn represents the central mechanism in
an organism’s homeostatic system. Cognitive experiments have demonstrated the existence of an
idealized life model in humans, which guides expectations about life and therefore functions as a
set-point for motivation. This model has universally common elements in addition to some
culturally specific ones. In cases where one’s life deviates from the life model, it will provoke a
negative emotion which motivates correctional action. Divination is an example of such
correctional action. This was supported by an analysis of actual motivations for divination in
four different cultures. In general motivation for divination can be described as a perception of
actual or potential misfortune or lack of fortune.
The sign production consists of an operator performing a technique. In order to be successful
the action has to be ritualized. Ritualized action is according to contemporary cognitive theories
of ritual distinguished by a displacement of intentionality. This displacement is characterized by
the fact that the human cognitive system will tend to repair gaps in action sequences, such as the
lack of a clear performing agent. In this case, the action is repaired by the replacement of the
original incomplete intention with that of a counterintuitive agent. In divination the effect of
ritualization is that the counterintuitive agent and not the operator comes to be represented as the
author of the sign produced by the divination technique. Counterintuitive agents are cognitively
represented without the epistemic restrictions that characterize normal humans; they have perfect
access to reality. This is why the divinatory sign is considered able to give information about
matters not otherwise available to human perception or reason. By using an experimental method
from cognitive science the thesis was investigated. The results of this experiment showed that
ritualized action was considered significantly more credible than other comparable types of

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action. It was argued that these results supported the overall thesis. Based on insights from
cognitive science in how humans categorize the world into psychological, biological and
physical domains, it was further hypothesized that these ontological domains had a consequence
for the ratings of credibility. This was similarly tested with another experiment which
demonstrated that the ontological domain employed in divination had an effect on the evaluation
of credibility. Forms of divination employing humans as sign producers were more credible than
those employing animals. These in turn were more credible than those employing natural objects
The interpretation part of impetrative divination starts from the identification of the divinatory
sign as intentional. It was argued that the popular theory in the cognitive science of religion
about hyperactive agency detection (HADD) was not adequate to account for this identification.
Instead it was argued that some sort of hyperactive intentionality detection (HIDD) must be
responsible for the identification of a counterintuitive agent as the ultimate author of the sign.
The interpretation proceeds with the identification of the outcome as, not merely an intentional
act, but also a communicative sign. This is facilitated by the question posed in the beginning.
The concrete interpretation of the content follows the same principles as normal communication
and it was argued that Dan Sperber’s and Deirdre Wilson’s cognitive communication theory,
relevance theory, provided an adequate description of the process of interpretation in divination.
Still, important differences between divinatory communication and normal communication were
found. Most notably, the relation between the sign and its reference was found to be less “coded”
in divination than in normal communication. Further it was argued that divination was restricted
in its utility. Whereas normal language can be used to express anything, divination practices are
usually restricted in their form and subject. Three types of form restriction exist: binary, discrete
and rich. Two further types of subject restriction was found: either the divination practice is
restrained, because it can be used only for a limited range of subjects, or it is open and can
therefore be used for many types of subjects. Another part of interpretation has the function of
assessing the credibility of the information produced. Here it was found that a cognitive bias
towards attaching greater credibility to prestigious individuals existed. A review of cognitive and
social psychological studies revealed that this prestige bias was the most powerful factor in
assigning credibility value to testimony in general. This kind of prestige was called direct
prestige. Since divination cognitively stimulates a representation of a counterintuitive agent as

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the ultimate communicator it was argued that the prestige effect should also be detectable with
regard to counterintuitive agents. A psychological experiment indicated that the prestige of the
counterintuitive agent, seen as the ultimate agent in the divination practice, did influence
judgments of which divination practice was considered most credible. High prestige
counterintuitive agents were judged to be more credible than low prestige counterintuitive
agents, when all else was equal. This kind of prestige was termed indirect prestige.
Chapter 5 dealt with oblative divination. The main difference from impetrative divination was
the sign production. The basic problem in oblative divination is to pick out salient events in the
daily stream of events. In principle any event could become salient, but three primary ways of
identifying such events were distinguished. The first type relied on the event becoming salient in
light of the current concerns of the perceiver. The second type relied on a pre-established
catalogue of signs. It was argued that they would often be encoded in writing. The third type
relied on the event itself being so unexpected that it demanded extra explanation. These three
types were found in different cultures from around the world. Based on a psychological
experiment, it was possible to say that priming with stories that stipulate the ability of a
counterintuitive agent to send signs, greatly stimulates the identification of an event as an omen.
It was argued that this priming can be constant if a cultural model stipulating this ability of
counterintuitive agents to send communicative signs is often communicated. This constantly
sensitizes people to the possibility of communication from a counterintuitive agent and was
taken to be a contributing factor in picking out an event as an omen.
In Chapter 6, first an overview and summary of the cognitive processes involved in the two
types of divination was provided. Whereas the previous two chapters dealt with the cognitive
basis of divination, and thereby made up for the first lack found in previous research, this chapter
tried to make up for the second lack, namely a framework for dealing with the dissemination and
historical dynamics of divination. It was argued that the cultural epidemiology originally
proposed by Dan Sperber is a viable framework for understanding dissemination of cultural
phenomena such as divination. A few modifications to the approach were, however, suggested.
The benefit of the epidemiological approach is that it is multi-factorial and that it allows us to
integrate cognitive factors with social and ecological ones. In epidemiology a standard tool for
analyzing dissemination of disease is the web of causation. This technique was adapted to

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investigate the dissemination of divination by integrating the factors found in the previous
chapters. Such an application of actual epidemiological methods has not been attempted before
in the cognitive science of religion. These factors form the basis of the empirical investigation in
chapters 9 and 10.
Chapter 7 marks the beginning of the empirical analysis. In this chapter we saw how previous
research had explained Roman divination. It was argued that four general theses seem to go
through the research history. The historical thesis explained Roman divination based on
historical contingencies. It was argued that this explanation did not qualify as an explanation.
The formalist thesis stipulated that Roman divination was a mere formality which the Romans
did not take seriously and could be dispensed with at leisure. A close reading of the sources,
however, revealed that the Romans did indeed take divination very seriously. The fear thesis
explained Roman divination by recourse to fear in one way or the other. Nevertheless a
systematic examination of the sources could not support the conclusions of this thesis. The
functional thesis explained the continuing existence of Roman divination by its functionality.
The problem with this thesis was that it was difficult to test. The only case where we could test
it, we found that it did not adequately account for the results. It was therefore concluded that
previous research in Roman divination had not been especially successful in its attempts to
explain why divination pervaded Roman culture through centuries.
Chapter 8 reviewed the character of the most important sources we have for divination in
Roman culture.
Chapter 9 contained the analysis of impetrative divination. In this chapter all known
impetrative divination practices were analyzed with respect to the factors stipulated in chapter 6.
It was found that divination in all cases was motivated by the perception of actual or potential
misfortune. All practices employed ritualized action. We also found that the cases where
divination was seen as manipulation were exactly cases in which the divination practice was not
performed with ritualized action. Further we saw, contrary to the results we found in Chapter 4,
that the categories employed in the divination technique seemed to have no effect on how
credible it was deemed. It might therefore be that this factor is either specific to modern western
culture or just too insignificant to have an effect in the real world. We found that the direct
prestige had a very high correlation with the credibility value of the divination practice, as was

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stipulated. Even within individual divination practices, differences in credibility value correlated
with the difference in direct prestige of the operator or interpreter. The indirect prestige largely
followed the direct prestige, but in cases where the direct prestige was the same, the indirect
prestige determined which practice had higher credibility value. We also found that Roman
divination had all possible different combinations of utility. The utility characteristics could
account for why a given divination practice was adopted in a given context. We also found that
all practices were explicitly conceptualized as communications with a counterintuitive agent.
All predictions of the theoretical model, with the exception of one, were seen to be in
accordance with expectations based on the theoretical model developed in the first part. It was
further shown how this model might throw some light on certain aspects of the historical
dynamics of the dissemination and survival of individual divination practices. This was done by
recourse to changes in only two factors: Credibility value and utility.
Finally, it was argued that four simple equations, specifying the relations between the factors
stipulated to be of importance in the theoretical model, could explain the dissemination and
survival of individual divination practices. First of all, we found that the credibility value of a
divination practice depended on ritualization, direct prestige and indirect prestige in descending
order of importance. The probability of dissemination of a practice was found to be inversely
proportional with the credibility value. This has to do with a correlation between credibility
value and actual value: divination practices with a high credibility value could only be afforded
by very few and vice versa. The probability that a divination practice would be adopted was
found to be predicted by the credibility value plus the utility of the practice in a context times the
frequency with which that context arises. If a divination practice is very useful in a given context
and that context suddenly arises more often the prediction is that the divination practice will
become more widespread all else being equal. The last equation stipulates that the probability
that a divination practice will survive depends on the credibility value plus the dissemination. A
divination practice may therefore survive through centuries even when it is not widely
disseminated if it has a high credibility value. Conversely if it has a low credibility value it may
likewise survive if it is widely disseminated. If, however, it has a low credibility value and is not
widely disseminated it is not probable that it will survive. The predictions of these four equations
were in accordance with what we could find in the sources for Roman divination practices. The

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practices that did not survive were exactly those with low credibility value and low
dissemination. It is, to my knowledge, the first time that a model based on insights from
cognitive science has been used to interpret historical material to that amount of detail. Still, the
sources are very fragmentary and we have only considered 13 different practices.
Chapter 10 dealt with oblative divination. It showed that omens in general were conceptualized
according to one basic cultural model. This model specified the omen as a sign from the gods
about future success or misfortune. All omen words implicated this basic model although they
each had different nuances. Based on an analysis of the frequency with which omen words
occurred in republican Latin texts, it was argued that the cultural model was frequently
communicated and very widespread in Roman culture. This could have produced a “cultural
priming” effect like the real priming effect referred to in the experiment in chapter 5. Since an
omen depends on a salient event to be identified, we investigated how this took place. We found
evidence of all three ways of identifying omens. The omen type typically denoted by the Latin
term omen was found to be largely of the first type, where an event achieves salience based on a
relation to the current concerns of the agent. Some omina were found to belong to the second
type, the catalogue type. They could be traced to the augural discipline and were therefore
ultimately based on a written record. Another type represented in this group was some of the
prodigia. They had likewise been recorded in writing. The third type, the unexpected type,
accounted for the prodigia. The more unexpected or attention demanding they were the more
likely they were to be identified as prodigia. Based on the insights derived from the theoretical
model it was also possible to distinguish one single principle that would account for which
prodigies became accepted and rejected. This is an advance on earlier research, which has
stipulated two principles and even for these two principles exceptions could be found. Further,
we found evidence that the same direct prestige effect, as we found in impetrative divination,
was detectable for oblative divination. Omens interpreted by prestigious persons were more
credible than those interpreted by less prestigious persons.

We can therefore conclude that the theoretical model of divination proposed here provides a
possible explanation for why divination pervaded Roman culture through centuries. At the same
time it provides a couple of advantages compared to previous research.

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 First, it provides a more coherent explanation of aspects that can be derived from the extant
sources. The novel account presented here provides an integrated explanation of the formalism,
apparent manipulation, the role of fear and the functionality of divination. Ritual is characterized
by rigidly prescribed and apparently inconsequential actions that can appear formal, but the
integration of cognitive insights allowed us to see that the purpose of these characteristics was to
facilitate the representation of a counterintuitive agent as the ultimate communicator of the sign.
From this identification also followed that what has previously been identified as evidence of
manipulation were exactly a lack proper ritualization. We saw that fear is an important
motivating factor, but that it is constant. In a way it could also be argued that the account
provided here is functional, since the function of divination is to provide answers. That is
probably accurate and the credibility value is a good measure of this ability. It will always be
possible to say something about a sign, but if the credibility value is zero or too low, it could be
said that an answer was not provided. Then the divination practice would not be fulfilling its
function and would therefore not have great probability of being used and hence disappear.
Conversely, as long as it fulfills its function it will continue to be used. This, however, is another
kind of function than has previously been suggested.
Second, whereas earlier explanations have been monocausal, the model presented here is
multicausal. We have seen how such diverse factors as the utility of the divination practice,
ritualization, prestige of interpreter and prestige of the gods associated with divination all
combine in explaining the dissemination and historical dynamics of divination. It is also
worthwhile to remember that the identification of which factors were important depended on the
elucidation of the cognitive processes forming the basis of divination.
Third, while earlier functional or structural explanations have been unable to account for
historical dynamics, we saw how the proposed theoretical model could aid us in understanding
historical changes. It could throw new light on the historical developments such as the rise of the
importance of the haruspices in the course of the 1st century BCE, the widespread adoption of
sortition in the 6th and 5th centuries BCE. It can possibly also explain the ultimate decline and
disappearance of divination in the Roman Empire with the rise of Christianity: The traditional
Roman gods were derogated with the assumption of Christianity. The Christian god, not Jupiter,
was now at the top of the prestige hierarchy. This lowered the indirect prestige associated with

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divination. At the same time the operators and interpreters of divination suffered a similar lack of
prestige, because prestige came to be distributed according to the hierarchy of the Christian
church and not according to the hierarchy of offices in the Roman Empire. Given equation 1 in
Chapter 9 the credibility value decreases and given equation 4, the prediction is that the
probability of survival decreases. Although more work needs to be done to substantiate this
claim, it points to a possible answer.
In this light it can be seen that the application of cognitive theory to historical material has
been fruitful for the historical study. The application of cognitive science allowed us a number of
crucial insights. First of all the studies of cognitive psychologists demonstrating the existence of
a cognitive model of the ideal life, allowed us to understand what motivates the use of
divination. The way that the cognitive system represents action provided the key to
understanding why ritualized action seems so crucial for impetrative divination. In oblative
divination we saw how the effect of priming a subject with a story of the possibility of a
counterintuitive agent communicating through a sign, was important for perceiving an event as
an omen. In general the credibility of an interpretation of divination seemed to depend on a
cognitive bias towards conceptualizing prestigious agents as more credible than less prestigious.
It has also been fruitful from the point of view of cognitive science. We saw how the framing of
the question of representation of divination stimulated new questions to be researched in
cognitive psychological experiments. On the other hand, the application has allowed us to see
that not all things found in psychological experiments turn out to be important in real life since
the categories employed in divination turned out to be insignificant. These are all insights and
experiences that have been made possible by the experiment that this dissertation is.

The theoretical model offered here may also explain dissemination and survival of divination
in other societies as well, since it is intended as a general model. Nevertheless, only further
research will be able to say whether it is accurate or not. The model may also be adapted to
analyze knowledge producing practices in general, such as science, gossip, news, commercials
etc. This could be done by taking out the ritualization parameter and possibly adding other
factors. This would allow us to analyze how certain information is assigned differential

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credibility value in different societies. That could in turn help us explore the differences between
the particular ideas of different cultures.
More generally, it is possible to further develop this approach to account for other cultural
phenomena. The focus on risk factors and web of causation is a helpful heuristic that may serve
to finally integrate cognitive, ecological and social factors as Dan Sperber originally proposed.
This would have to be done with a focus on specific phenomena in specific cultures, which in
turn could also stimulate new questions for cognitive experiments.
In general I hope to have shown that a cognitive historiography is at least feasible, but also that
it may even be helpful. It can throw new light on both history and cognitive science. On the one
hand we saw that traditional historical problems such as the distribution of prodigies, or the
apparent formality of divination ritual could be explained by integrating cognitive explanations.
On the other hand we also saw that the real life importance of cognitive factors such as direct
and indirect prestige, ritualization and category employed in divination, could not be deduced
from the isolated cognitive experiments. Only in the investigation of concrete practices could we
see that ritualization was a sine qua non, direct prestige the most important factor, indirect
prestige only vaguely important, and finally the category employed in divination as altogether
insignificant. Based on the cognitive research, they all seemed to be equally important. Thus the
results of the cognitive historiography proposed here may aid both history and cognitive science.
The experiment has been to combine the in vitro methods of cognitive science with in vivo
methods of history to provide a synergic effect that can improve our knowledge of the
phenomenon of divination.

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Appendix 1

The Kurabi among the Mwambesi in Africa

Among the Mwambesi in Africa they have a kurabi who, they say, can predict the
future by throwing pebbles to the floor. From the configuration of pebbles he throws
to the floor he can tell what will happen in the future. Kalanga, a Mwambesi, had
planned to go to a nearby city tomorrow. The road to the city is sometimes hit by
raiders, and some have even been killed. Kalanga doesn’t know when they will be
there, and he has to go to the city to sell his produce soon. He has heard that the
kurabi can foretell the future, so he has come to find out when he should go to the
city. Kalanga pays the diviner a sizeable amount of money. The kurabi, who has no
knowledge of the whereabouts of the pirates,

1) Takes the pebbles in his right hand, puts them in a pattern on the floor…
2) Takes the pebbles in his right hand, beats his hands against each other 5 times,
and throws them to the floor…
3) The kurabi had just finished putting the stones into a pattern when he came…
4) The kurabi's hand bumps into a chair and he drops the pebbles to the floor…

The kurabi looks at the pebbles and says that it is safe to travel today.

How likely do you find it that Kalanga will embark on this trip today?
1(very unlikely) - 5(very likely)

How likely do you find it that Kalanga feels he got good advice?
1(very unlikely) - 5(very likely)

The dendrologer in Toronto

In Toronto they have a dendrologer who can determine whether a choice is good or
bad by the use of two sticks. Eva, who has just finished high school, doesn’t know
whether to study chemistry or medicine. He has to decide today, and he knows that
the choice will influence the rest of his life. He likes both, but each in a different way.
A close friend of his told him that the dendrologer could help him make his choice.
So Eva goes to the dendrologer, who has never seen Eva before, and pays a
significant amount of money to tell him whether he should study chemistry.
1) The dendrologer puts the two sticks into a V shape…
2) The dendrologer places the sticks beside of each other in an upright position
and lets them fall. They end up in a V shape…
3) The dendrologer looks at the sticks lying at the table in a V shape…
4) The dendrologer steps on the sticks lying on the floor on the way to his desk
to get a pen. They fall into a V shape…

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The dendrologer looks at the sticks and says Eva should study chemistry.

How likely do you find it that Eva will decide to study chemistry?
1(very unlikely) -5(very likely)

How likely do you find it that Eva feels she got good advice?
1(very unlikely) -5(very likely)

The banban among the Katchikvi in Vietnam

Among the Katchikvi on the Vietnamese highland they have a banban, who can tell
you the solution to your problem by looking at the footsteps of the mountain rabbit.
Okchiva, who is a native Katchik, has a mother who has been very ill for along time
and it gets worse every day. Okchiva has heard of the banban and goes there although
it is far up in the hills. Okchiva pays a significant amount to the banban in order to
know what to do.

1) The banban goes to a clearing in the forest draws a square, and takes a stuffed
paw of a mountain rabbit and makes some footsteps in the square…
2) The banban goes to a clearing in the forest draws a square, waits until the next
day and goes to the square where the mountain rabbit has made footprints…
3) The banban goes to a clearing in the forest and discovers a previously draw
square in which there already are footprints from the mountain rabbit…
4) The banban goes to a clearing in the forest draws a square, when the banban is
done and gets a better look at the square it can be seen that there already were
footprints from the mountain rabbit there…

The banban looks at the tracks and says that Okchiva should get some kalikatvi. This
is a kind of medicine, which is very expensive. The medicine has been known to cure
people in some cases, but not in others. The price of the kalikatvi would mean that
Okchiva’s entire family would have to starve for months.

How likely do you find it that Okchiva buys the kalikatvi to his mother?
1(very unlikely) -5(very likely)

How likely do you find it that Okchiva feels she got good advice?
1(very unlikely) -5(very likely)

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Appendix 2
The Guzul
In Central Australia lives a people called the Guzul. They have different specialists
who they often use to determine hidden causes. They are all considered very reliable
and have a good reputation.

1) The wulul communicates with Ulu, a god, through ecstatic possession

2) The yizia communicates with Yayo, a god, by reading the flight of the birds
3) The oto communicates with Ila, a god, by listening to the sound of the wind in a
cave

A Guzul man is trying to find out why he has been sick for months, and what to do to
get well. Which of the specialists is he most likely to consult?

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Appendix 3

The Kalungi
The Kalungi in West Africa have different specialists, whom they often employ to
reveal hidden causes of people’s misfortune. They are all considered reliable and
have a good reputation.

1) A parawa specialist communicates with Para, a god whom is sometimes given

small offerings of dried bread.
2) An umbuwu specialist communicates with Umbo, a god whom is sometimes
given elaborate feasts of the finest food.
3) An olowo specialist communicates with Olo, a god whom is offered a meal
daily.

A Kalungi man is trying to find out why his wife is barren, and what he has to do to
get a child. Among the Kalungi children are very important, and barrenness is
considered a great misfortune. Which of the specialists is it most probable he will
consult?

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 Appendix 4

Roman Words Omen Prodigium Portentum Monstrum Auspicium Augurium Dirum Obscenus
Corpus Total Max.* Min.* Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min.

Augustus 2619 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.82 3.82 0 0 0 0 0 0

Caesar 83674 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Catullus 12857 0.78 0.78 0 0 0 0 3.11 1.56 0.78 0.78 0 0 0.78 0.78 0.78 0
Cicero 760420 0.41 0.41 0.21 0.18 0.30 0 0.29 0.16 1.12 1.12 0.11 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.21 0.04
Horace 30754 0.98 0.98 0 0 0.33 0 1.95 1.30 0.65 0.65 0 0 1.95 1.63 0 0
Livy 159131 0.82 0.82 1.89 1.82 0.38 0 0.06 0 4.59 4.59 0.82 0.82 0.19 0.13 0 0
Lucretius 49039 0 0 0 0 1.02 0 0.41 0 0 0 0 0 0.41 0.41 0 0
Ovid 140275 2.14 2.14 0.29 0.29 0.07 0 2.35 1.28 0.50 0.50 0.21 0.21 2.64 2.14 1.00 0.50
Plautus 165242 0.54 0.54 0.12 0.06 0.12 0 0.42 0.06 0.85 0.85 0.12 0.12 0 0 0 0
Sallust 31907 0 0 0.63 0.63 0.31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Terence 50684 0.20 0.20 0 0 0 0 1.38 1.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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Greek Words Teras Phantasma Sumbolon Phasma Sema
Corpus Total Max.* Min.* Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min.
Aeschines 44356 0.23 0.23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aeschylus 40104 2.24 2.24 0.25 0.25 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.75 2.24 2.24
Andocides 17424 0 0 0 0 0.57 0 0 0 0 0
Antiphon 18159 0 0 0 0 0.55 0 0 0 0 0
Apollonius
Rhodius 38814 2.83 2.83 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.09 3.09

Aristophanes 94797 0.63 0.63 0 0 1.17 0.27 0.13 0.13 0 0

Aristotle 303262 0 0 0 0 0.42 0 0 0 0.32 0.32

Bacchylides 4697 4.26 4.26 0.10 0.10 0.49 0.26 0 0 0 0

Callimachus 9538 2.10 2.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.26 4.26

Demades 2006 0 0 0 0 1.05 0 0 0 5.24 5.24

Demosthenes 294302 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dinarchus 10659 0 0 0 0 0.41 0.14 0 0 0.03 0.03
Diodorus 191882 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Euclid 152651 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.05 0 0 0.05 0.05
Euripides 147583 0.88 0.88 0 0 0 0 1.02 1.02 0 0
Herodotus 184921 1.14 1.03 0.20 0.20 0.47 0.07 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54
Hesiod 16193 0.62 0.62 0 0 0.11 0.11 0 0 0.65 0.65
Homer 199047 0.95 0.95 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.47 2.47
Homeric Hymns 16082 0.62 0.62 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.66 2.66
Hyperides 11809 0 0 0 0 1.24 0 0 0 3.11 3.11
Isaeus 33315 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Isocrates 111925 0.09 0.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.30 0.30
Lycurgus 10914 0 0 0 0 0.09 0 0 0 0 0
Lysias 56314 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Old Oligarch 3195 0 0 0 0 0.53 0 0 0 0 0

Pindar 21258 1.88 1.88 0 0 0 0 0.47 0.47 0 0
Plato 561388 0.23 0.23 0 0 0.47 0 0.11 0.11 1.88 1.88
Polybius 311345 0.06 0.06 0.55 0.55 0.09 0 0 0 0.09 0.09

Pseudo-
Apollodorus 35087 0 0 0 0 0.10 0 0.97 0.97 0 0
Sophocles 61714 0.97 0.97 0 0 0.29 0 0 0 0.29 0.29

241
Theocritus 21261 1.88 1.88 0 0 0.32 0 0 0 0.49 0.49

Theophrastus 6716 1.49 1.49 0.47 0.47 0 0 0 0 2.35 2.35

Thucydides 150116 0 0 0 0 1.49 0 0 0 0 0
Xenophon 312275 0.03 0.03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.53 0.53

* Frequency per 10000 words

The specific texts by the individual authors in the corpus can be seen at:
http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/cache/perscoll_Greco-Roman.html#text1 (March 19
2007)

242
Appendix 5
Prodigies between 218 and 44 BCE

In this appendix the prodigies in the sources are recorded as paraphrases with
specification of year and place. There are cases of doubt as to whether it is a prodigy
or an omen, or whether a prodigy should be counted as one or two. These are
however not very frequent and should not significantly alter the overall number of
prodigies. Such cases are mentioned in the notes.

218 Liv.21.62.1-6, V.Max.1.6.5

6 month old infant of freeborn cried “Triumph” in the Forum Holitorium Roma
Cow crawls to the third floor and jumps out Forum Boarium Roma
Ship seen in the sky
Temple of Spes struck by lightning Forum Holitorium Roma
Slain victim moved by itself Lanuvium
Raven flew into the temple of Juno and sat on her couch Lanuvium
Apparitions of men dressed in white seen from afar Amiternum
Oracle lots shrank Caere
Wolf stole the sword of a guard Gallia
Shower of stones Picenum

Note: The omens mentioned in Liv.21.46.1-3 are included by Rasmussen (Rasmussen 2003:
61). They are however more likely omens to Scipio since they occur in his camp. They have
therefore not been included

217 Liv.22.1.8-13, V.Max.1.6.5, Oros.4.15.1

Javelins of soldiers had taken fire Sicilia
Truncheon had taken fire Sardinia
Fires blazed at the shore Sardinia
Two shields sweated blood Sardinia
Soldiers struck by lightning Sardinia
Sun seemed smaller Sardinia
Glowing stones had fallen from the sky Praeneste
Sun seemed to fight the moon Arpi
Two moons seen in the daytime Capena
Blood mixed with water in the spring of Hercules Caere
Bloody ears of corn while reaping Antium
Great fissure in the sky bright light shone through the crack Falerii
Lots had shrunk and one fallen out reading ”Mavors brandishes his spear” Falerii
Statue of Mars sweats Rome
Sky on fire Capua

243
Moon fell down Capua
Goats got woolly fleeces
Hen turned into a cock
Cock turned into a hen

Note: Rasmussen also counts the omina towards Flaminius as omens, but they are not
mentioned in the list with the others. They don’t either seem to have been related and treated
as prodigia. They are therefore not likely to have been taken as prodigia(Rasmussen 2003:
63).

216 Liv.22.36.7-9
Rain of stones on the Aventine Roma
Rain of stones Aricia
Statues sweated blood in Sabinis
Blood flowed from a hot spring several times
Several persons were killed by lightning on the Via Fornicate

Note: MacBains reference to Liv.per.22 as a source is not of much help (MacBain 1982: 88).
Livy 22.57.2-6 relates a story of the vestal virgins Opimia and Floronia’s breach of their vow
of chastity. This is taken as a prodigy by Rasmussen (Rasmussen 2003: 64), but is not
counted here. The procedure with consultation of the sibylline books resembles that of
prodigies. That in itself is not an argument for it being a prodigy. The books could be used in
any unusual situation. The occurrence also occurs outside the primary list of prodigies, which
also suggests that it was not in that original list.

215 Liv.23.31.15
The sea appeared as if on fire
A cow gives birth to a foal Sinuessa
Statue of Juno Sospita sweated blood Lanuvium
Rain of stones around the temple of Juno Sospita Lanuvium

214 Liv.24.10.6-24.11.1
Ravens built nests in the temple of Juno Sospita Lanuvium
Palm tree bursts into flames Apulia
Blood in the sea at the mouth of the river Minucius Mantua
Rain of chalk Cales
Rain of blood in the Forum Boarium Roma
Subterranean springs flow with a strong current in the Vicus Insteius Roma
Atrium Publicum struck by lightning on the Capitol Roma
Temple struck by lightning on the Campus Volcanus
Temple of Vacuna struck by lightning in Sabinis

244
Public road struck by lightning* in Sabinis
Walls and a gate struck by lightning* Gabii
The spears of Mars moved by themselves Praeneste
Ox spoke Sicilia
A child shouts Io triumphe from the womb of its mother Marrucini
Woman turned into a man Spoletum
Alter and people in white robes seen in the sky Hadria
Swarm of bees seen in the Forum Roma
Vision of legions seen on the Janiculum Roma

Note: *Rasmussen counts these as one (Rasmussen 2003: 65)

213 Liv.24.44.7-9
Walls and gates struck by lightning Caieta*
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Aricia
Ships that did not exist were seen** Tarracina
Sound of clashing arms in temple of Jupiter Vicilinus** Compsa
River ran with blood** Amiternum

Note: *there is a Lacuna in the manuscript. Caieta was proposed by Luterbacher. ** These
are described as unreal (Et alia ludibria oculorum auriumque credita pro veris). It is difficult
to see whether this is an explicit evaluation of Livy, a rejection of them as prodigies or as
carrying no evaluation but merely describing them as illusions. It is not uncommon for Livy
to speak of prodigies in a derogatory way so the first option is not improbable. The second
possibility has never been proposed by any commentators, and probably with good reason. If
they were prodigies not accepted it is difficult to explain why similar types of prodigies had
been accepted earlier with the exception of the first, and why prodigies form the same areas
were accepted on other occasions. We would also expect a different wording such as non
suscepta instead of non credita. The last possibility is also quite probable. I have therefore
included them as normal prodigies.

212 Liv.25.7.7-9
Storms*
Rain of stones for two days Mons
Albanus
Temples struck by lightning Capitol
Two guards killed by lightning Suessula
Walls and towers struck by lightning Cumae
Stone seemed to fly Reate
Sun seemed bloodier and redder than usual

245
Note: *this is possibly not a separate prodigy, but a description of the following (sic.
Rasmussen 2003: 66).

211 Liv.26.23.4-6
Statue of Victory at the top of the temple of Concordia struck by lightning Roma
Walls and gates struck by lightning Anagnia
Walls and gates struck by lightning Fregalla
Steams of blood flowed for a whole day on the Forum Subertanum Roma
Rain of stones Eretium

A mule gives birth Reate

210 Liv.27.4.11-15
Lamb born with filled utters Tusculum
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Tusculum
Lightning struck the ground which kept burning Anagnia
Birds abandoned their nests in the grove of Diana Anagnia
Big snakes leapt from the water Tarracina
Pig born with the face of a man Tarracina
Four statues sweated blood in the grove of Feronia Capena

209 Liv.27.4.11
Statue of Jupiter struck by lightning Mons
Albanus
Grove struck by lightning* Ostia
City wall struck by lightning Capua
Temple of Fortune struck by lightning Capua
Wall and gate struck by lightning Sinuessa
Waters flowed with blood Alba
A figure falls from the head in to the hand of statue of Fors Fortuna Roma
Ox spoke Privernum
Vulture flies in to a shop in the forum Privernum
Hermaphrodite born Sinuessa
Rain of milk
Baby born with elephant head

Note: * Loeb’s edition and Rasmussen (Rasmussen 2003: 67) read basin (lacus) instead of
grove (lucus). The manuscripts differ and three different possibilities appear lacus, locus and
lucus. Given that we have no other prodigies involving lacus or locus (without qualification

246
such as pulicus) that are struck by lightning, it seems most probable that we should read
lucus, since lightning strikes in a grove (lucus) is a common prodigy as in Liv.27.37.1-15

208 Liv.27.23.1-4
Temple of Fortuna struck by lightning Capua
Temple of Mars struck by lightning Capua
Graves were struck by lightning Capua
Mice nibble at gold in the temple of Jupiter Cumae
Swarm of bees in the forum Casinum
Wall and gate struck by lightning* Ostia
Vulture flew in to the temple of Jupiter Caere
Blood flows in the sea Volsinii

Note: Rasmussen counts this as two (Rasmussen 2003: 68)

207 Liv.27.37.1-15
Rain of stones Veii
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Menturnae
Grove of Marica struck by lightning Menturnae
Walls struck by lightning Atella
Gate struck by lightning Atella
Blood flowed in the gate Menturnae
Wolf walk through the gate and mangles a guard Capua
Rain of stones at the armilustrium Roma
Hermaphrodite as big as a four year old was born Frusinone

Note: There is also the incidence of lightning striking the temple of Juno Regina during an
expiation. This is counted as a prodigy by Rasmussen (Rasmussen 2003: 68), but seems more
to be an omen that something was wrong with the expiation. Therefore it is not counted here.

206 Liv.28.22.1-7, Dio.17.57-66

Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Tarracina
Temple of Mater Matuta struck by lightning Satricum
Two snakes crawled through the door to the temple of Jupiter Satricum
Ears of grain appeared to be bloody Antium
Pig with two heads was born Caere
Androgynous lamb born Caere
Two suns seen seen Alba
Light appeared during the night Fregellae

247
Ox spoke Ager Romanus
Alter of Neptune sweated blood Roma
Temple of Ceres struck by lightning Roma
Temple of Salus struck by lightning Roma
Temple of Quirinus struck by lightning Roma

Note: That the fire in the temple of Vesta went out is taken as a prodigy by Rasmussen
(Rasmussen 2003: 71), but it seems like a case of ritual neglect, which is different.

205 Liv.29.104-8
Frequent rain of stones

Note: The Mater Idaea is imported to Rome from Pessinus on account of a sibylline verse. It
might have been done in response to a prodigy, but we do not know of any particular prodigy
to which it was connected. Rasmussen has collapsed 2005 and 2004 into one, so she has 8
prodigies for this year.

204 Liv.29.14.
Two suns seen
Daylight in the middle of the night
A meteor was seen move from the east to the west
Gate is struck by lightning Tarracina
Gate and wall struck by lightning* Anagnia
Noise and a rumble was heard in the temple of Juno Sospita Lanuvium

Note: Rasmussen counts this as two.

203 Liv.30.2.9-13
Ravens ate from the gold on the Capitol Roma
Mice nibble on a golden wreath Antium
Capua cowered by a swarm of locusts Capua
Five-footed foal was born Reate
Fire in the sky and then a meteor was seen Anagnia
The sun expanded Frusinone
The earth collapses into a cavity Arpinum

Note: One of the consuls didn’t find a head on the liver in his sacrifice. Rasmussen sees this
as a prodigy (Rasmussen 2003: 72). This is a bad omen toward the consul not a prodigy
toward the state.

248
202 Liv.30.38.8-10
The disk of the sun diminishes Cumae
The earth collapses into pits Veliternum
The forum and surrounding shops struck by lightning Aricia
Gates and wall struck by lightning* Frusinone
Rain of stones Palatin
Rain of stones* Cumae

* Rasmussen counts this as two (Rasmussen 2003: 72)

201 Plin.Nat.18.166
Grain grew on trees

200 Liv.31.12.5-10
The sky was on fire Lucania
Sun was red in a cloudless sky Privernum
Great noise heard at the temple of Juno Sospita in the night Lanuvium
Birth of a hermaphrodite Sabini
Sixteen year old hermaphrodite found
Lamb with a pig’s head was born Frusinone
Pig with a mans head was found Sinuessa
Foal with five feet born Lucania

199 Liv.31.1.10-14
2 portae and muri struck by lightning* Suessa
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Formiae
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Ostia
Temple of Apollo and Sancus struck by lightning Velitrae
Hair appeared in the temple of Hercules Velitrae
Foal born with five legs Bruttium
Three hens with three feet born Bruttium
Laurel leaves sprang forth from a ship (navis longa) Macedonia

* Rasmussen counts this as three (Rasmussen 2003: 73)

198 Liv.32.9.2-4
Via Publica struck by lightning Veii
Forum struck by lightning Lanuvium
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Lanuvium
Temple of Hercules struck by lightning Ardea
Walls and towers (turres) struck by lightning Capua
Temple of Alba stuck by lightning Capua

249
Sky was on fire Arretium
The earth collapsed Velitrae
Sheep with two heads born Suessa
Pig with head of a man born Suessa

197 Liv.32.29.1-2
Temple of Volcanus struck by lightning Roma
Temple of Summanus struck by lightning Roma
Walls and gates struck by lightning* Fregellae
Sky lit up in the night Frusino
Two headed lamb with five legs born Aefula
Two wolves entered the city Formiae
Wolf seen on the Capitol Roma

* Rasmussen counts this as two (Rasmussen 2003: 74)

196 Liv.33.26.7-9
P.Vilius a Roman equester was struck by lightning. Horse died
Temple of Ferona struck by lightning Capena
Two spears burst into fire in the temple of Moneta
Wolf entered the forum Roma

Note: See (Levene 1993: 82-83) on why the year 195 is missing in Livy

194 Liv.34.45.6-8
Drops of blood were seen on the Capitol and in the Comitium Roma
Rain of soil Roma
Head of Volcan burnt Roma
Milk flows in the river Nar
Boys of respectable parents born without eyes and mouth Arimini
Boy born without hands and feet Picenum
Rain of stones Hadria

193 Liv.34.55.1-5
Numerous earthquakes

Liv.35.9.3-5
Tiber flooded. Buildings collapsed* Roma
Lighning struck the Porta Caelimontana. Walls struck by lightning* Roma
Rain of stones Aricia
Rain of stones Lanuvium

250
Rain of stones Roma
Swarm of bees in the forum and in the temple of Mars Capua

* Rasmussen counts this as two (Rasmussen 2003: 75)

192 Liv.35.21.2-5, V.Max.1.6.5

She goat gave birth to six kids at once Picenum
Boy born with one hand Arretium
Rain of soil Amiternum
Gates and walls struck by lightning Formiae
One of the consul’s oxen said “Roma cave tibi” (Rome beware)

191 Liv.36.37.2-6
Two cows crawled up the stairs to the roof of a building Roma
Rain of stones Amiternum
Rain of stones Terracina
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Menturnae
Shops around the forum struck by lightning Menturnae
Two ships burnt after being struck by lightning Volturnus

190 Liv.37.3.1-6, Obs.1

Temple of Juno Lucina struck by lightning Roma
Gates and walls struck by lightning Puteoli
Thunderstorm from a cloudless sky Nursea
Two free men killed Nursea
Rain of soil Tusculum
Mules born Reate

188 Liv.38.36.4, Obs.2

Darkness during the day
Rain of stones Roma

187 Liv.38.44.7
Plague

Note: It is doubtful whether the plague is a prodigy (cf. Levene 1993: 90)

186 Liv.39.22.3-5, Obs.3

Rain of stones Picenum

251
Fire in the sky
Temple of Ops struck by lightning* Roma
12 year old hermaphrodite discovered Umbria

*Obs.3 has temple of Jupiter instead

183 Liv.39.46.5, Obs.4

Rain of blood for two days (Area Vulcani) Roma

Liv.39.56.6, Obs.4, Oros.4.20.30

Rain of blood for two days (Area Concordia) Roma
Island appeared Sicilia

Note: the rain of blood in Liv.39.56.6 is not counted as a separate prodigy because it must be
the same as the one in Liv.39.46.5: the Area Vulcani and Area Concordia are the same
(Platner & Ashby 1929: 248f). Furthermore the parallel passage in Obsequens has only one
rain of blood for two days.

182 Liv.40.2.1-4,
Storm Roma
Mule born with three legs Reate
Temple of Apollo struck by lightning Formiae

181 Liv.40.19. 1-5, Obs.6

Rain of blood (Area Vulcani) Roma
The lances had moved by themselves
The statue of Juno Sospita cried Lanuvium
Plague

Note: It is doubtful whether the plague is a prodigy, but there is no compelling reason to
exclude it.

Obs.6.
6 months of drought

180 Liv.40.37.1-3
The praetor and consul died/plague Roma

Note: It is a very atypical prodigy. It seems more like a case where a ritual fault has been
committed. This is supported by the fact that the pontifex maximus investigates the pontifical
records to find the right piacula. This form of ritual is usually performed as a response to a

252
ritual fault. The deaths are however explicitly described as being taken as a prodigy:
Postremo prodigii loco ea clades haberi coepta est (Liv.40.37.1) “Finally the disaster came
to be regarded as a portent”. It has therefore been included anyhow. Rasmussen counts the
plague mentioned in the previous paragraph as the prodigy (Rasmussen 2003: 79). That is
also a possibility. It hinges on whether the word clades refers to the plague or the death of the
magistrates. The fact that clades is frequently used in Latin of plagues speaks to the former
interpretation. Since plagues had earlier been expiated in the same way as here (with a
supplicatio ritual), it would appear a reasonable conjecture.

179 Liv.40.45.3-5, Obs.7

Statues overthrown by storm (Capitol) Roma
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning Tarracina
Temple of Alba struck by lightning Capua
Gate struck by lighting Roma
Mule born with three legs Reate

Liv.40.59.6-8, Obs.7
Different problems with the lectisternium ritual

Note: Rasmussen counts this as a prodigy (Rasmussen 2003:80). It is however very atypical,
since it is a ritual fault. It is not either described as a prodigy, but as propter prodigia – close
to a prodigy. It is therefore not included.

178 Liv.Per.41., Obs.7

Temple of Venus burnt to the ground Roma
Flame dies in the temple of Vesta Roma

Note: Rasmussen counts these as prodigies. There is a Lacuna in Livy in book 41, where this
list would have been. The first one is however also found in Livy Liv.Per.41. It seems a
normal accident and is never described as a prodigy. It could be, but since it is not stated so
explicitly and it is not a typical prodigy, there is no reason to assume so. That the flame dies
in the templa of Vesta, is a ritual fault dealt with accordingly by the pontifex flogging the
responsible vestal virgin. These two have therefore not been included as prodigies.

177 Liv.41.9.4-8
Stone fell from the sky into the grove of Mars Crustuminum
Boys is born with body without limbs (in ager romanus)

Four legged snake found (in ager romanus)

Temples (aedificia) in the Forum struck by lightning Capua
Two ships struck by lightning Puteoli
Wolf seen in the city Roma

253
 Liv.41.13.1-3
A vulture (avis sanqualis) lets a sacred stone drop from its beak. Crustuminum
Cows were talking Campania
Bronze cow was mounted by a bull Syracuse

Note: See Levene about the existence of two prodigy lists in 177 (Levene 1993: 105-107),
The list for 178 is missing because of a lacuna. We do know that it existed since it is known
through Iulius Obsequens (obs. 8) (cf. Levene 1993: 104)

176 Liv.41.16.3-6
Fire seen in the sky Tusculum
Temple of Apollo struck by lightning Gabii
Several private temples were struck by lightning Gabii
Walls and gate struck by lightning Graviscae

Note: This year the consuls die. Rasmussen counts it as a prodigy (Rasmussen 2003: 81), but
it is not described as such. It has therefore not been included here.

Obs.9
Liver disappeared from sacrificial animal Roma
Consul Cornelius died Cumae

Note: These two stories can be read in Liv.41.14 and 41.16. They are not described as
prodigies here. The inclusion by Obsequens shows that he did not have a rigid distinction
between omens and prodigies. These two are therefore not included in the analysis on
prodigies.

174 Liv.41.21.5-13, Obs.10

Plague
Boy with two heads born Veii
Boy with one hand born Sinuessa
Girl with teeth born Ariminum
Rainbow seen above the temple of Saturn Roma
Three suns seen Roma
Fire in the sky at night Roma
Strange snake in the city Caere
An ox spoke Capua

Note: MacBain thinks that the prodigy about three suns is the same as can be seen in Pliny
(2.99) (MacBain 1982: 93). Obs.10 has a plague for 175, but it is evident that Obsequens got
the years wrong. It must be the first one on the list in Livy. Rasmussen concurs (Rasmussen
2003: 81)

254
 Plin.Nat.2.99
Bow around the sun

Note: I am following MacBain in dating it this year (MacBain 1982: 93)

Liv.41.28.2
Earthquake Sabinii

Note: Although it may be doubtful whether it is to be counted as a prodigy since it is

removed from the primary list, it is described as a prodigium with the technical term
nuntiatus.

173 Liv.42.2.3-7
Big fleet seen in the sky Lanuvium
Black wool came from the ground Privernum
Rain of stones Veii
Swarm of locust Pomptinum
Fish came forth from the ground Agrum
gallicum

172 Liv.42.20
Columna Rostrata struck by lightning Roma
Rain of blood for 3 days Saturnia
Donkey born with three feet Calatia
Thief and 5 cows struck by lightning
Rain of soil Antium

171 Plin.Nat.7.36, Gel. 9.4.15

Girl became boy

169 Liv.43.13.3-8
Fire in the sky Anagnia
Cow spoke Anagnia
Sky was on fire* Menturnae
Rain of stones Reate
Apollo cried in 3 days Cumae
Snake in the temple of Fortune Roma
Palm tree grew grows in the temple of Fortuna Primigenia Roma
Rain of blood by the temple of Fortuna Primigenia Roma

255
*This prodigy may be the same as the one in Sen.Q.Nat.1.1.2, which Rasmussen has also
included (Rasmussen 2003: 83). But this prodigy should be dated in 168, as it occurred
during the Paulus’ battle with Perseus in the Third Macedon War.

Liv. 44.18.6-7
Rain of stones
Rain of stones Veii

Note: These may belong in 168 (Cf. Levene 1993: 168).

Plin.Nat.17.244
Palm tree grew in the temple of Jupiter on the Capitol Roma

Note: Rasmussen includes this prodigy here (Rasmussen 2003:83f). It is not entirely clear
though, why it should be dated to the year 169. The passage in Pliny goes: nec non et Romae
in Capitolio in ara Iovis bello Persei enata palma victoriam triumphosque portendit
(Plin.Nat.17.244). It does mention that the prodigy occurred during the war against Perseus.
This war however started in 171 and ended in 168. She does list a source Festus 285, but as it
has not been possible to find any reference to the prodigies in that source. It is therefore not
quite clear to me why it should be dated to 169. I have therefore chosen not to include it.

167 Liv.45.16.5-6, Obs.11

Temple of the Penates struck by lightning Roma
2 gates and wall struck by lightning Minervium
Rain of soil Anagnia
Fire in the sky Lanuvium
Blood was dripping from the fireplace of M.Valerius Calatia

Note: Obsequens probably collapsed the first and second prodigy to one. He writes that
sacred and profane areas were struck by lightning.

166 Obs.12
Rain of soil Campania
Rain of blood Praeneste
Wool from trees Veii
Three women died after sacrifice in the temple of Minerva Terracina
Water flowed from statue in the growe of Libitina
Weasel from the temple of Jupiter dropped in a group of senators Roma
Temple of Salus struck by lightning
Blood flowed on the ground on the Quirinal Roma
Fire on the sky at night Lanuvium
Much destroyed by lightning Cassinum

256
Sun shone during the night Cassinum
Boy with four arms and legs born Teanum Sidicinum

Note: in the following we cannot check with Livy. Since we know that Obsequens included
omens and that he was not very accurate (based on Obs.9 and 11 see notes above), I have
excluded any prodigy from Obsequens record that can with reasonable certainty be identified
as something else, such as a ritual fault or an omen.

165 Obs.13
Plague and famine
Doors at the temple temple of the Penates moved by itself Roma
Wolf seen on the Esquiline and Quirinal Roma

163 Obs.14
Sun in the middle of the night Capua
A group of sheep killed by lightning Ager
stellatus
Triplets born Terracina
Two suns Formiae
Fire in the sky Formiae
Man brunt by the rays of a mirror Antium
Rain of milk Gabii
Lightning on the Palatine Roma
Swann flew into the templa of Victoria
Girl born without hands Privernum
Trumpet played in the sky Cephallenia
Rain of soil Cephallenia
Roofs and fields struck by lightning*
Sun in the night Pisaurum
Pig with head and feet of a man born Caere
Boy with four feet and hands born Caere
Flame from the mouth did not harm cow Aesi

* Rasmussen counts this as two prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 86)

162 Obs.15
Fire in the sky Anagnia
Many lightning strikes
Talking cow Frusino
Mule with three legs born Reate

257
156
Storm destroys sacred places on the Capitol Roma
Bull broke down on its way to sacrifice
The roof of the pontifex maximus was struck by lightning

Note: Rasmussen counts these as four prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 87). I have not counted
the last two as they are not likely to be prodigies.

154 Obs.17
No head (caput) on the liver on most sacrificial animals
Consul died
Weapon seen in the sky
More lightning strikes

Note: Rasmussen counts the first two as one prodigy (Rasmussen 2003: 87), but they are
excluded here since the missing caput is an impetrative sign (see infra chapter 9 under public
extispicy) and since earlier examples of the death of a consul in Livy were not identified as
prodigies, but as results of vitium (see comments above to the years 203, 180 and 176).

Plin.Nat.17.244
Palm tree grew by the altar of Jupiter

Note: I am following MacBain, who dates it in 154 (MacBain 1982: 95)

152 Obs.152
Storm overthrew statue at the temple of Jupiter
Rain of stones Aricia
People in togas were seen by people from afar, but not by those close by Roma

148 Obs.19
The Regia and two laurel leaves were damaged by fire

Note: Rasmussen has for some reason not counted these (Rasmussen 2003: 88)

147 Obs.20
Boy with three legs and one hand born Amiternum

258
Lightning strikes Roma
Blood flowed forth Caere
Sky and earth on fire* Caere
Two circles around the sun Lanuvium
Star burned for 32 days

*Rasmussen counts these as two prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 88)

143 Obs.21
Boy with 3 legs born Amiternum
Rivers and earth flowed with blood Caura

Fron.Aq.7
Note: MacBain thinks this source indicates a prodigy. It stems from the fact that it mentions
the decemviri inspecting the books for other reasons (aliis ex causis - perhaps the boy with
three legs mentioned by Obsequens). Here they discovered a religious fault in how the Aqua
Marcia aqueduct was constructed.

142 Obs.22, Oros.5.4.8

Famine and plague*
Hermaphrodite Luna

* Rasmussen counts these as two prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 88)

140
Statues (signa) fell from the sky Praeneste
Statues (signa) fell from the sky Cephallenia
Fire from Etna Aetna

137 Obs.24, Oros.5.4.19

Chickens for the auspices flew into Laurenina’s wood Lanuvium
Fire in the sky Praeneste
Thunder from a cloudless sky Praeneste
Praetor died in a fire when his ship was struck by lightning Terracina
Flooding Lacus
Fucinus
Blood flowed in the Graecostasis* Roma
Blood flowed in the Comitium* Roma
Foal with five feet born on the Esquiline Roma
Many lightning strikes
Hostilius Mancius heard a voice saying “Mane, Mancine”** Herculis

259
Snake found on a ship but fled out of the hands** Herculis

* Since the Graecostasis was right beside the comitium (Plattner & Ashby 1929: 248f), these
two has been taken as one.
** Rasmussen counts these as two prodigies. I have not counted them since they are very
typical of omens (see chapter 10). They were probably omens in a story about the on of the
consuls’, Hostilius Mancius’, defeat at the hands of the Numantines, which happened this
year.

136 Obs.25, Oros.5.6.1

Regia completely destroyed without any signs of human cause Roma
Boy born from slave with 4 feet, hands, eyes and mouths and 2 sets of genitals
Blood in hot springs Puteoli
Many lightning strikes

135 Obs.26, Oros.5.6.2

Eruption from Etna Aetna
Boy with closed bottom born Roma
Grain on the trees Bononia
Voice of an owl heard at the Capitol Roma

134 Obs.27
Sun in the middle of the night Amiternum
Cow spoke
Rain of blood
Tunic of a slave burns leaving no signs of fire Anagnia
Moaning as a man from a bird at night at the Capitol Roma
Shields struck by lightning in the temple of Juno Regina Roma

133 Obs.27a
Tiberius Gracchus died after witnessing tristia omina*
Milk was flowing in to the lake from the rivers Lacus
Romanus
4 iugera of land collapsed and lake emerged Luna
Rain of soil Ardea
Wolf attacks guard Minturnis
Unknown owl and other birds seen Roma
Voice of children heard from the temple of Juno Regina Roma
Shields dirty with fresh blood Roma
Girl with four legs born
Hermaphrodite born Ferentinum

260
* Rasmussen counts this one, although it is explicitly called an omen (Rasmussen 2003: 91).
It has not been included here.

130 Obs.28, Agust.C.D.3.11

Mule with five feet born Reate
Rain of milk in the Graecostasis Roma
Dog and wolf fighting struck by lightning Ostia
Flock of sheep killed by lightning Apulia
Praetor killed by lightning
Ship struck by lightning from a cloudless sky and everyone died* Terracina
P. Crassus killed in battle against aristonicum

* Rasmussen counts this one as two prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 91)

129 Obs.28a
Two black snakes seen in the cella of the temple of Minerva

Cic.N.D.2.14-15
Double sun

Note: Cicero states that the death of P. Africanus follows the prodigy. This death is however
interpreted as a prodigy in itself by MacBain and Rasmussen (MacBain 1982: 96; Rasmussen
2003: 92).

126 Obs.29, Plin,Nat.2.203., Oros.5.10.11

Storm destroys temples on the Capitol Roma
Many lightning strikes Roma
Etna eruption Aetna
Storm* Liparae
Seamen eating dead fish fell ill * Liparae

* Rasmussen counts these as 3 (Rasmussen 2003: 92). It is very doubtful whether they are
prodigies. They seem rather to be a bizarre story that has caught the attention of Obsequens
according to the same pattern we saw above. The story is also known through Plin,Nat.2.203.
Here it is a strange story and not a prodigy. Strabo also seems to know about the strange
conditions around the Liparian islands (Strabo.6.2.11). These two have therefore been
excluded.

125 Obs.30
Grain appeared on threes

261
Rain of oil and milk Veii
An owl was seen on the Capitol Roma
Rain of stones for three days Arpis
Swarm of locust from Africa brought plague*

* Rasmussen counts this as 2 prodigies. It is most likely not a prodigy. MacBain thinks that
Phleg.Mirab.10 is an expiation which took place in response to this, but the source is very
fragmentary and difficult to base anything certain on. The story about the swarm of locust is
also found in Augustine (Aug.C.D.3.31). As in the previous note on the year 126 I think this
is a bizarre story that has attracted the attention of Obsequens. It has therefore not been
included in the analysis.

124 Obs.31
Rain of milk in the Graecostasis Roma
A flock a dog and three shepherds killed by lightning Croton
Calf born with two heads Satura

122 Obs.32
Hermaphrodite born in the Forum Vessanum*
Three suns and three moons seen Gallia
Calf with two heads born
Owl seen on the Capitol Roma
Catina destroyed by fire from Etna Catina

* The location of this place is completely unknown. It is only mentioned in this passage in
Obsequens. A city called Vessa is known, but it is location is likewise not identified.

121 Obs.33
Flock of wolves destroyed stone put up by C.Gracchus

Note: Rasmussen counts this one as a prodigy (Rasmussen 2003:93). This story is tied to the
death of Caius Graccus and thus an omen story. It is therefore not counted here.

Plin.Nat.2.98
Bow around the sun

119 Obs.34
8 year old hermaphrodite found on Ager Romanus

118 Obs.35

262
Head (caput) missing from sacrificial victim*
Rain of milk
Earthquake with roar
Swarm of bees on the Forum Roma

* Counted by Rasmussen (Rasmussen 2003: 94). It is not counted here for reasons stated in a
note under the year 154.

Plin.Nat.2.99
Three suns at the same time

117 Obs.36
Lightning strikes Roma
Rain of milk Praeneste
The lances of Mars moved by themselves Roma
7 iugera of land collapsed Privernum
Hermaphrodite at the age of 10 found

Cic.Div.1.97
Earthquakes Apulia

115 Plin.Nat.2.144
Temple of Juno struck by lightning

114 Obs.37
Daugther of a Roman knight and her horse killed by lightning

Plin.Nat.2.147
Rain of milk
Rain of Blood

Plin.Nat.2.98
Bow around the sun

113 Obs.38
Light seen in the middle of the night Mons
Albanus
Temple and statue struck by lightning*
Alter of Salus destroyed
Earth opened up Lucania
Earth opened up Privernum

263
Sky on fire Gallia

* Rasmussen counts as two (Rasmussen 2003: 95)

111 Obs.39
Fire in the city Roma
Rain of milk

108 Obs.40
An avis incenidaria and owl seen*
Human eaten by human in quarry
Flooding of the Po and Arentinus rivers*
Rain of milk twice*
Twin birth; girl survived but boy had an open hole in his stomack, he died Nursia

* Rasmussen counts as two (Rasmussen 2003: 95)

106 Obs.41
Boy born of slave said “ave” Amiternum
Rain of milk* Perusia
Rain of milk* Roma
Four fingers cut of by lightning Atellis
Silver flowed after lightning strike Atellis
Roman woman struck by lightning, but didn’t die Trebulanum
Noise from the sky
Spears (pila) fell from the sky
Rain of blood
Fire in the sky Roma
Flame in the temple of the lares Roma

* Rasmussen counts as one (Rasmussen 2003: 96)

105 Obs.42
Snakes appeared at alter when flutes were played, but disappeared afterwards Trebula
Mutusca
The statue of Mars was upside down Trebula
Mutusca

104 Obs.43
Owl seen outside the city Roma

264
Cow was talking
Statue originally veiled was unveiled Trebula
Mutusca
An elm tree rose by itself* Nuceria
Rain of milk Lucania
Rain of blood Luna
Dog was talking Ariminum
Weapon seen fighting in the sky
Moon and stars visible during the day
Wolf seen in the city
Vultures killed by lightning
Solar eclipse
Swarm of bees in front of the temple of Salus Roma
Rain of milk in the Comitium Roma
Three suns seen Picenum
Flames from the ground to the sky Volsini
To lambs born with horse feet and one with the head of a monkey Lucania
Milk came from the ground Tarquinii

* the sentence is difficult to decipher. Loebs translation has restored it “(..) an elm,
overturned by the wind, straightened upon its root of its own accord and regained its
strength”. The story is also found in Pliny 16.132, where it is added that it was in a grove of
Juno.

102 Obs.44
Rain of stones Etruria
The lances of Mars moved in the Regia Roma
Rain of blood Anio
Swarm of bees in temple in the Forum Boarium Roma
Light was burning in the night in military camp (castris) Gallia
Boy engulfed in flames unharmed Aricia
Temple of Jupiter struck by lightning

101 Obs.44a
Shield moved by themselves
She goat with burning horns led through city and released at the Porta Nigra Roma
Rain of clay at the Aventine Roma

Note: I have not included the story about the slave Q. Servilius Caepionis, who castrated
himself for the Idaean Mother, Cybele. It does not seem to be a prodigy.

100 Obs.45, Plin.Nat.2.100

265
Fire in the sky Tarquinii
Sun formed a disc like a shield at sun set
Earthquake cause some buildings to collapse and others to remain standing Picenum
Noise from arms heard from below
Gold quadriga on the forum sweated on its feet Roma

Note: The first prodigy is also found in Pliny (Plin.Nat.2.100). MacBain also places the
prodigy in Plin.Nat.3.123 this year (MacBain 1982: 99). It is, however, not clear what
motivated this dating, so it has not been followed.

99 Obs.46
Owl seen in the city Roma
Much has been destroyed by storms
Many lightning strikes
Drops of blood in the temple of Juno Sospita
Earthquake destroys temples Lanuvium
Noise from below heard Nursia

Note: Rasmussen also counts as a prodigy the story of two crows, who fought in the air
during a meeting (contio) convened by Sex.Titius (Rasmussen 2003: 99). It does speak for
the identification of it as such that it is interpreted by the haruspices, but on the other hand,
the haruspices could interpret anything so it cannot be used as proof of anything. It seems to
me more likely that it is an omen.

Gel.4.6.1-2
The lances of Mars moved by themselves in the Regia Roma

98 Obs.47
Owl seen above the statue of the gods during sacrifice on the Capitol Roma
Many lightning strikes
The lances of Mars moved by themselves in the Regia* Roma
Thunder from a cloudless sky
No head (caput) on the liver during sacrifice to Apollo and a snake was found**
Fire between soldiers’ spears in the circus
Sacrificial bull broke down**
Rain of chalk in the theatre
Hermaphrodite

* I believe this prodigy is the same as the one Aulus Gellius mentions (Gel.4.6.1-2). He,
however, has it in 99. Rasmussen follows this, but also has it in 98 (Rasmussen 2003: 100).
Gellius has it from an official decree (senatus consultum). Consequently his testimony takes
priority and the prodigy is most likely to be dated in 99. Since it is in the middle of the list, it
opens up to the possibility that the whole list is from that year.

266
** these are not counted as prodigies for reasons stated under the year 166 and 154

97 Obs.48
Hermaphrodite found
Noise from the ground Pisaurum
Statue of Jupiter turned by itself Nursia
Masonry falls down from the city walls without an earthquake

96 Obs.49
Wolf in the city
Owl killed on the Capitol Roma
Many lightning strikes
Goldstatue of Jupiter fell down
Blood flowed out of the ground Faesulis
Grain grew from the nose of a woman, and she vomited kernels of spelt Arretium

95 Obs.50
Rain of milk
Many animals killed by lightning Caere
Ground collapsed
Vultures tearing a dead dog were killed by other vultures Venafrum
Lamb with two heads born
Boy with three hands and feet Ateste
Lances of Mars moved by themselves in the Regia Roma
Hermaphrodite found Urbinum

94 Obs.51
Rain of stones Volscium
New moon disappeared Volsinii
Girl with two heads and four hands born
Avis incendiaria seen and died
Rain of stones Vestinis
Fire in the sky
Blood flowed from the ground
Dogs behaved strangely
Large crowd of pale people seen during the day at cemetery Faesula

93 Obs.52
Many things struck by lightning Roma
Slave gave birh to a boy with only and

267
The temple of Neptune opened during the night
Two calfs were found in the entrails of a Bull calf
Statue of Mercury was sweating Arretium
A flock was surrounded by flames but unharmed Lucania
Torrent of blood flowed Carseoli
Wolves in the city
Wool was flying around Praeneste
Mules were foaling Apulia
Falcon captured in the temple of Apollo
Head (caput) of the liver missing from consul’s second sacrifice*
Food for Novendiale ceremony eaten by dog**
Strange fire in the sky Volsinii

* Is not taken as a prodigy. See above under the year 154

** Is not taken as a prodigy but a ritual fault. See above under the year 166

92 Obs.54
Owl in the temple of Fortuna Equestria is captured and killed Roma
Boy born of slave without opening on the genitals Faesulae
Woman with two sets of genitals found
Fire in the sky
Cow spoke
Swarm of bees settled on the top of a private house
Stream of blood
Rain of milk Volterra
Two hermaphrodites found Roma
Chicken with three legs found Arretium
Many lightning strikes

91 Obs.54, Cic.Div.1.98-99
Ball of fire at sun rise
Bread with blood found Arretium
Rain of stones and sherds for seven days Vestinis
Flame from the ground to the sky Aenaria
Parts of the city and the wall destroyed Regium
Ball of fire fell to the ground then towards the east where it grew Spoletium
Statue of Apollo sweated Cumae
Temple of pietas struck by lightning
People died at the ludi romani Asculum

Plin.Nat.2.199
Earthquake Ager
Mutinensis

268
Note: Although Pliny states that he has it from books on the Etruscan discipline, the format
with date, by the two consuls, and place fits the Roman prodigies. It may have come to Pliny
in a collection of responses by the haruspices as we also know from Cic.Har. This fits well
with the political commentaries in the interpretation of the prodigy. It is probably from the
work by C. Epidius mentioned in Plin.Nat.17.243, or a work on Etruscan divination by
Umbricius Melior mentioned in Plin.Nat.10.19.

Plin.Nat.8.221, Cic.Div.1.99
Mice had gnawed the shields of Mars Lanuvium

90 Obs.55
Dream of Caecilia Metella about Juno Sospita
Head was missing from consul’s sacrifice

Note: Rasmussen counts here four prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 104). I have taken the first as
one prodigy and excluded the other because of reasons stated above under the year 154.

Plin. Nat.2.238
It looked as if the sea was on fire

Note: It resembles the prodigy mentioned in the year 126, also noted by Pliny (Plin.
Nat.2.203). The date stems from the mention that it occurred the year of the start of the social
war. MacBain also dates the omen from Plin. Nat.2.98 to this year (MacBain 1982: 101). It
is, however, unclear what prompted this dating.

88 Obs.56
Poppedius Silo held triumph in captured city
Omens to Mithridates

Note: Rasmussen counts these (Rasmussen 2003:105). They are however clearly omens and
are therefore not included here (see under the year 166)

87 Obs.56a, Plin. Nat.2.92

Sky fell down in the camp of Pompeius Roma
Pompeius (the consul of the prior year) killed Roma

Note: The last one is not taken as a prodigy. MacBain thinks that there are some prodigies in
Livy.Per.79 (MacBain 1982: 101). I have, however, not been able to identify such in that
passage. Neither has Rasmussen (Rasmussen 2003: 105).

269
 Cic.N.D.2.14.
Fire in the sky

Note: While this prodigy is included by MacBain (MacBain 1982:101), it is, for unknown
reasons, left out in Rasmussen (Rasmussen 2003: 105).

86 Obs.56b
One of Sulla’s soldiers was struck by lightning
Statue of Minerva was left unharmed in the ruins in Piræus

Note: Rasmussen counts these as prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 105). They are however
clearly omen stories.

84 App.B.Civ.1.83
Note: MacBain here finds a prodigy (MacBain 1982: 101). It does however appear more
likely that it is another sort of oblative sign regarding the action currently undertaken.

83 Obs.57, Plin.Nat.7.34
Sound of battle. Closer inspection revealed footprints
Matron gave birth to snake Clusium
The Capitol burned down Roma

Note: Rasmussen counts these as five prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 106).

77 Obs.58
D. Laelius wife finds two snakes in her bed
D. Laelius saw a falcon above his head

Note: these are omenstories and therefore not included.

76 Obs.59
Earthquake results in collapse of sacred buildings. Reate
Stone from the forum exploded Reate
Bridges collapsed
Banks of river fell into the river
Noise from below
Stone rolled to the edge of a cliff

Note: Except the noise from below all are consequences of the earthquake and counted as
one.

270
 Plin.Nat.2.100
A spark from a star fell to the ground and other strange things in the sky

75 Obs.60

Events about the army of Sertorius

Note: These are omen stories and not take as prodigies.

65 Dio 37.9.1-2
Statues overturned and melted by lightning on the Capitol Roma

63 Obs.61, Cic. Div.1.19-20, Cic.Cat.3.19-20, Dio.37.25.1-2, Plin.Nat.2.137

Many lightning strikes**
Person struck by lightning from a clear sky** Pompeii
Something burning in the sky
City destroyed by earthquake Spoletum
Bronzetablets struck by lightning became liquid*

* Dio Cassius has this in 65 (Dio.37.9.1-2, 37.25.1-2). It is included under that year since
Dio. Is closer in time, more credible and thorough than Obsequens.
** Dio has one prodigy: many lightning strikes from a clear sky (Dio.37.25). He may have
mixed these two. This is supported by a passage in Pliny. Pliny has the prodigy about the
person struck by lightning in Pompei in Plin.Nat.2.137 as one. These prodigies are therefore
taken as separate.

Dio.37.25.1-2
Auspices fail
Ghosts seen

Note: The first seems to be a ritual fault and is therefore not counted.

62 Obs.61a
Laurel-wreathed fasces were lost to the Dardani

Note: Rasmussen counts this as a prodigy (Rasmussen 2003: 107). I have taken it as an
omen, since it is a typical omen story.

60 Obs.62

271
Light appeared during the night
Tornado ripped of roofs
Bridge collapses and people fall into the Tiber
Plants ripped up with their roots

56 Dio.39.15-16
Statue of Jupiter struck by lightning

Dio.39.20, Cic.Har, passim

Model of the temple of Juno facing east was turned to face north Mons Albanus
Fire in the sky from south to north
Wolf in the city
Earthquake
Citizens killed by lightning
Noise from below*

*This is probably the prodigy which Cicero’s De haruspicum responso is about.

54 Obs.64
Note: these are omen stories about Crassus on his war in the east

Dio.39.60.4-6
Note: We hear that the sibylline books were consulted because Pompei refused to step down
from his office. It is however not clear that it is taken as an omen.

53 Obs.63, Dio 40.17.1

Wolves seen in the city
Howling of dogs during the night
Statue of Mars was sweating
Thunderbolt flew through the city overturning statues and killing people
Great civil disturbance because of Pompei’s dictatorship Roma

Note: the last one is not taken as a prodigy. First of all it comes after the list of prodigies, and
in the parallel passage in Dio we do not find it presented as a prodigy.

Plin.Nat.2.147

Rain of iron Lucania

Note: It is not counted as it seems to be an omen to Crassus

272
52 Dio.40.47.1-2
Market fell on the first of January*
Owl seen and caught
Statue sweated for three days
Fire from south to east
Many different kinds of rain

* The market day, nundinae, is calculated on the basis of an eight day cycle which were not
fixed to the regular dates of the calendar (Michels: 1978:27). It is probably the day after the
Kalends of January (1 January). Such days were called dies postriduani and were considered
dies atri, that is “black” days (Michels: 1978:65). Either way, a black day to start off the year
must have sounded gloomy to the Romans.

50 Obs.65
Mules were foaling
Fire destroyed a big part of the city

Note: Rasmussen counts the last one as a prodigy (Rasmussen 2003: 109). It is however
described as like a prodigy (prodigii loco habitum) and therefore not included.

Plin.Nat.2.147
Rain of wool C. Carissanum
Rain of boiled bricks

Note: They are taken to portend the death of Milo. Therefore it could be that they were
instead omens. They are however described as treated as prodigies, that is, related to the
senate (relatum) and written down.

48 Obs.65a
Note: This is an omen story about Pompei, where several omens are mentioned as going
against Pompei. Rasmussen counts them as prodigies (Rasmussen 2003: 110). They have not
been included here.

Plin.Nat.2.92
Fire in the sky in the west.

Dio.42.26.1-2
Bees in the temple of Hercules on the Capitol Roma

47 Dio.42.26.1-2
Earthquake

273
Lightning strikes, among other things the temple of Fortuna Publica Roma
Doors to the temple of Fortuna opened by themselves
Blood flowed from a bakery to another temple of Fortuna
Child born with left hand attached to his head

46 Obs.66
10 legions of Pompei’s son’s flew into the sky

Note: This is not mentioned in the parallel passage in Dio (Dio.43.2). It is therefore taken as
an omen story.

Dio.43.2.1
Wolves in the city
Pig born resembling an elephant

44 Obs.67
Caesar did not find a heart in the entrails of his sacrificial victim
His wife had a bad dream
The doors to his room opened by themselves

Note: these are all omens to Caesar.

Obs.68, Plin.Nat.2.98., Dio.45.17.2-8

Signs about Augustus as heir to Caesar*
Fire in the sky
Earthquake
Many lightning strikes
Statue fell because of tornado
Tablets fell from the temple of Fides
Door destroyed in the temple of Ops
Trees uprooted
For seven days a star shone brightly
Fire in the sky towards the west
Three suns
Letters in Anthony’s and Dollabella’s names fell out in the temple of Castor*
Howling of wolves in front of Lepidus’ house *
School of fish stranded on land Ostia
Po flooded, when retracted snakes left Po

* These are not taken as prodigies, but as omens or a later interpellations caused by Augustan
propaganda. They can also be found in Plin.Nat.2.98.
Note: The text is one great mixture of omens and prodigies. In general it is difficult to
separate the prodigies from the omens, especially since the later Augustan history writing, on

274
which we are entirely dependent, has plenty of reason to twist the exposition towards giving
signs that Augustus would be the heir to Cesar and restore the Roman state. Those selected
are all confirmed in the list in Dio. This list is followed by descriptions how they are treated.
Their treatment is typical for prodigies. Rasmussen counts them all indiscriminately
(Rasmussen 2003: 111)

Dio.45.17.2-8
Lightning struck the temple of Jupiter on the Capitol Roma
Sacrificial bull jumped up after sacrifice
Plague

275
Appendix 6
Examples of counterintuitive, bizarre and common prodigies between 218 and 44
BCE

Counter intuitive prodigies

Coast was burning (in 217, Liv.22.1)
Lamb born with filled utters (in 210, Liv.27.4)
Rain with milk (in 209, Liv.27.11)
Ground was suddenly opened (in 203, Liv.30.2)
The statue of Juno Sospita cried (in 181, Liv.40.19)
Stone fell from the sky in to the grove of Mars (in 177, Liv.41.9)
Fish came out of the ground (in 173, Liv.42.2)
Boy with four arms and legs born (in 166, Obs.12)
Hostilius Mancius heard a voice saying: ”Mane, Mancine”[Stay Mancius] (in 137,
Obs. 24)
The Alban Mount was burning in the middle of the night (in 113, Obs.38)
A matron gave birth to a snake (in 83, Obs.57)
Statues were sweating (in 53, Dio.40.17)

Bizarre prodigies
Raven built its nest in the temple of Juno Sospita (in 214, Liv.24.10)
Sounds of battle was heard in the temple of Jupiter (in 213, Liv.24.44)
Four fingers cut of by lightning (in 206, Obs.41)
Praetor and consul died in office (in 180, Liv.40.37)
Snake was seen in the temple of Fortune (in 169, Liv.43.13)
Weasel was thrown by a falcon into a group of senators (in 166, Obs.12)
A human was eaten by another human in a quarry (in 108, Obs.40)
Statue of Mars was standing on its head (in 105, Obs.42)
Swarm of bees in front of the temple of Salus (in 104, Obs 43)
An owl seen in the city (in 99, Obs.46)
Wolf in the city (in 96, Obs.49)
Food for a goddess was eaten by a dog (in 93, Obs.52)

Common
Palm tree was burning (in 214, Liv.24.10)
Storm (in 212, Liv.25.7)
Birds flew from their nests in Diana’s grove (in 210, Liv.27.4)
Flooding of the Tiber. Buildings collapsed (in 193, Liv.35.9)
Statues tilted by storm (in 179, Liv.40.45)
Three women died after a sacrifice in the temple of Minerva (in 166, Obs.12)
Triplets born (in 163, Obs.14)

276
Alot was destroyed by a storm (in 99, Obs.46)
An owl killed (in 96, Obs.49)
Dogs were howling in the night (in 53, Obs.63)

277
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Gel. A.Gellius, Noctes Atticae
Hor.S. Q.Horatius Flaccus, Sermones
Juv. D. Iunius Iuvenalis,
Lactant.Div.Inst
Lucius Caecilius Firmianus Lactantius, Divinarum Institutionum (ed. E.
Heck/A. Wlosok, Leipzig 1994)
Lex munic.malacit
Lex Municipii Malacitani (in Taylor 1949)
Liv. T.Livius, Ab Urbe Condita
Luc. M. Anneus Lucanus, Bellum Civile
Macr. Ambrosius Theodosius Macrobius, Saturnalia
Obs. Iulius Obsequens
Oros.4. Paulus Orosius, Historiarum Adversarum Paganos
Ov.Ars. P. Ovidius Naso, Ars Amatoria
Ov.Ep. P. Ovidius Naso, Epistulae
Ov.Fast. P. Ovidius Naso, Fasti
Ov.Met. P. Ovidius Naso, Metamorphoses
Pac. M. Pacuvius

220
Abbreviations are based on Oxford Classical Dictionary and Oxford Latin Dictionary. Unless
otherwise stated the editions used are from Loeb’s Classical Library.

278
Pl.As. T. Maccius Plautus, Asinaria
Pl.Aul. T. Maccius Plautus, Aulularia
Pl.Cas. T. Maccius Plautus, Casina
Pl.Cur. T. Maccius Plautus, Curculio
Pl.Poen. T. Maccius Plautus, Poenulus
Pl.Per. T. Maccius Plautus, Persa
Pl.Ep. T. Maccius Plautus, Epidicus
Plin.Nat. C. Plinius Secundus, Naturalis Historia
Plin.Ep. C. Plinius Caecilius Secundus, Epistulae ad Traianum
Prop. Sex. Propertius, Elegiae
Sen.Oed. L. Anneus Seneca, Oedipus
Sen.Q Nat. L. Anneus Seneca, Quastiones Naturales
Serv.A. Maurus Servius Honoratus, In Vergilium Commentarius (Leipzig: Teubner,
1881)
Serv.Dan. Scholia Danielis
Stat.Silv. P. Papinius Statius, Silvae
Suet.Aug. C. Suetonius Tranquilius, Augustus
Suet.Cal. C. Suetonius Tranquilius, Caligula
Suet.Dom. C. Suetonius Tranquilius, Domitian
Suet.Jul. C. Suetonius Tranquilius, Iulius
Suet.Tib. C. Suetonius Tranquilius, Tiberius
Tac.Hist. Cornelius Tacitus, Historiae
Tib. Albius Tibulus, Elegiae
Ulp.dig. Domitius Ulpianus (ed. E. Böking 1955)
V.Max Valerius Maximus, Facta et Dicta Memorabilia
Var.L. M. Terentius Varro, De Lingua Latina
Var.R. M. Terentius Varro, Res Rusticae
Zonar. Zonaras

Greek authors

Amm. Marc. Ammianus Marcelinus

App.B Civ. Appianus, Bella Civilia
Dio Cass. Cassius Dio Cocceianus, Romaika
Diod.Sic. Diodorus Siculus
Dion.Hal. Ant.Rom.
Dionysius Hallicarnasensis, Antiquitates Romanae
Polyb. Polybius
Phleg. Phlegon Mirabile
Plut.Aem. Plutarch, Aemilius Paulus
Plut.Mar. Plutarch, Marius
Plut.Quaest.Rom.
Plutarch, Quastiones Romanae
Plut.Sull. Plutarch, Sulla
Sall.Iug Sallustius, Bellum Iugurthinum
Sall.Cat. Sallustius, Bellum Catilinae
Strabo. Strabo

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Danish summary
Dansk resumé af ph.d.-afhandlingen The Dissemination of Divination in Roman
Republican Times - A Cognitive Approach

Afhandlingen søger at besvare det grundlæggende spørgsmål: “Hvorfor var den

romerske kultur gennemsyret af divination i mange hundrede år”. For at besvare
spørgsmålet argumenteres der for, at det er nødvendigt at udvikle en generel teoretisk
model af fænomenet divination. Derfor falder afhandlingen i to næsten lige store
dele: En teoretisk del, som består af kapitlerne 1-6, og en empirisk del, som består af
kapitlerne 7-10.

Divination kommer fra det latinske ord divinatio. Kapitel 1 undersøger forhistorien
og historien bag dette latinske ord. Ordet har en indoeuropæisk rod. Verbalformen
synes oprindeligt at have betydet noget i retning af ”at gøre noget klart”. Det var dog
ikke før Ciceros De divinatione, at ordet divinatio blev brugt som en generel term, der
dækkede over alle forskellige divinationspraksisser. Ciceros værk har haft en
gennemslagskraft så stor, at selv moderne leksika har brugt hans forståelse og
opdeling af divination. Der argumenteres dog for, at det ikke har været til nogen stor
hjælp for en moderne videnskabelig behandling af emnet, da Ciceros forståelse er
præget af stoisk kosmologi, som ikke er i overensstemmelse med moderne
videnskabelige antagelser om verden.

I kapitel 2 behandles moderne teorier om divination. Den moderne videnskabelig

refleksion over emnet begyndte ved udgangen af det 19. århundrede. Divination var
forsvundet fra sin centrale plads i europæisk kultur med romerrigets overgang til
kristendommen. Derfor krævede forskernes opdagelse af, at tilsyneladende alle andre
folkeslag brugte divination, en forklaring.

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Oprindeligt blev divination forklaret på evolutionistisk basis som tilhørende et
tidligere kulturtrin. To overordnede linier løber igennem forskningen: den britiske og
den franske. Den britiske forklarer divination som en mangel i de primitives evne til
at lave induktive generaliseringer. Dette reflekterer den britiske empirisme. Over for
denne stod den franske rationalistiske tradition, som forklarede divination ud fra
kollektive repræsentationer og klassifikation.
Efter første verdenskrig forsvandt evolutionistiske forklaringer, og funktionalisternes
ideal om lange og grundige feltarbejder blev introduceret i divinationsforskningen
med Edward Evans Evans-Pritchards arbejde om blandt andet divination hos det
sydsudanesiske folk Azande. Evans-Pritchard kombinerede såvel den britiske som
den franske tradition med det nye ideal om feltarbejde. Dette studie står centralt i
stort set al efterfølgende forskning om emnet. Den efterfølgende forskning er på
forskellig vis videreudviklinger af denne tidlige forskning i emnet.
Skønt rigt facetteret er der forskellige mangler ved den tidligere forskning. For det
første findes der ingen grundig undersøgelse af den kognitive basis for divination. For
det andet er der ingen forklaring på historiske dynamikker, og hvorfor divination
spredes.

Kapitel 3 giver rammen for en teoretisk model for divination, som kan kompensere
for disse svagheder. Udgangspunktet er en stipulativ definition af emnet: ”Divination
er opnåelsen af troværdig viden om forhold, som ikke er tilgængelige for almindelig
menneskelig perception eller ræsonnement”. Der argumenteres for, at divination altid
opfattes som en kommunikativ interaktion med en modintuitiv agent, der har adgang
til en viden, som ellers er skjult for almindelig menneskelig perception.
Der er to måder, dette kan opfattes på: enten som et svar på et stillet spørgsmål eller
som en uopfordret henvendelse. Dette udgør grundlaget for de to primære former for
divination: impetrativ og oblativ divination. Impetrativ divination er den rituelle
form, hvor man stiller et spørgsmål og får et svar. Oblativ divination svarer til varsler,
hvor man får et tegn og efterfølgende finder ud af, hvad det betyder.

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Divination består derudover af tre hovedelementer: motivation, tegnproduktion og
fortolkning. Den væsentligste forskel mellem impetrativ og oblativ divination findes i
tegnproduktionen. I impetrativ divination produceres tegnet ved en teknik, hvorimod
tegnet i oblativ divination skal identificeres i den daglige strøm af begivenheder.

Kapitel 4 undersøger de forskellige elementer i impetrativ divination. Det første

element er motivation. En del forskning i social- og kognitionspsykologien peger på,
at mennesker generelt har en forestilling om det almindelige liv, en idealiseret
livsmodel. Denne definerer de ønskelige elementer i et liv.
Motivationen for divination kommer fra en opfattelse af en aktuel eller potentiel
diskrepans mellem den idealiserede livsmodel og det levede liv. Dette kan beskrives
som aktuel eller potentiel succes eller ulykke. Det vises ved eksempler fra fire
forskellige kulturer, at præcist dette er, hvad der motiverer folk til at bruge divination.
Tegnproduktionen foretages af en operator, som benytter en teknik. I dette afsnit
argumenteres der for, at teknikken skal være rituel for at virke. Den ritualiserede
handling er karakteriseret ved en forskydning af intentionen (displacement of
intention). Når handlingen efterfølgende evalueres, synes den intentionel, men på
grund af ritualiseringen kan operatorens intention ikke opfattes som årsag til
resultatet af handlingen. Der foregår derfor en reparationsproces (repair), i hvilken en
anden intentionalitet indsættes (replacement of intention). Denne intentionalitet er en
modintuitiv agent. På denne måde kommer den modintuitive intentionalitet til at blive
opfattet som den egentlige producent af tegnet i divinationsritualet.
Fra tidligere kognitionspsykologisk forskning ved vi, at modintuitive agenter
repræsenteres uden de epistemiske begrænsninger, som karakteriserer almindelige
mennesker. De har ikke samme begrænsede adgang til virkeligheden, men derimod
ubegrænset adgang til den.
Derved kan det tegn, der produceres i divination, komme til at blive repræsenteret
som kommende fra en agent, som har ubegrænset adgang til virkeligheden og dermed
også ”(..) troværdig viden om forhold, som ikke er tilgængelig for almindelig

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menneskelig perception eller ræsonnement”. Derved bliver divinationsritualet
adgangen til den information, som er målet.
Et psykologisk eksperiment omtales. Det viste, at deltagerne skelnede meget kraftigt i
vurderingen af troværdighed i et divinationsritual alt efter, om handlingen var
ritualiseret eller ej. Hvis handlingen var ritualiseret, opfattedes den som bedre i stand
til at give svar på spørgsmål om forhold, som ikke er tilgængelige for almindelig
menneskelig perception. Dette støtter den foreslåede tese.
Et andet eksperiment viste yderligere, at vurderingen af troværdighed i divination
også afhang af den ontologiske kategori, som bliver brugt i teknikken. Teknikker,
som bruger mennesker, opfattes som mere troværdige end teknikker, der bruger dyr
til at producere tegnet. Disse bliver til gengæld opfattet som mere troværdige end
dem, der bruger objekter.
Fortolkningsdelen består ligeledes af to komponenter: tegnet og en fortolker.
Fortolkningen starter fra identifikationen af tegnet som hidrørende fra en modintuitiv
agent. Den populære teori i den kognitive religionsvidenskab om en hyperaktiv
agensopdagelsesmekanisme (Hyperactive Agency Detection Device) undersøges som
mulig forklaringsmodel.
Det findes dog, at denne forklaring ikke er tilstrækkelig. I stedet foreslås en
hyperaktiv intentionalitetsopdagelsesmekanisme (Hyperactive Intentionality
Detection Device). Denne synes at være en bedre forklaringsmodel. Fortolkningen
går fra at identificere en modintuitiv agents intention som ophav til tegnet til at
identificere intentionen som kommunikativ. Denne identifikation hjælpes på vej af, at
tegnet er foranlediget af et spørgsmål. Der argumenteres for, at den konkrete
fortolkning følger principperne fra Dan Sperbers og Deirdre Wilsons
kommunikationsteori, som kaldes relevansteorien (relevance theory).
Skønt divination i det store hele kan opfattes som kommunikation, er der dog stadig
væsentlige forskelle på divinatorisk og almindelig kommunikation. I divination er
relationen mellem tegn og betydning mere løs eller mindre kodet. Et divinatorisk tegn
kan betyde mere end et almindeligt lingvistisk tegn. Divination er også begrænset på
en anden måde. Hvor almindeligt sprog kan bruges til at udtrykke næsten hvad som

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helst, så kan divination ofte kun bruges til nogle få ting: Divination er derfor
begrænset i anvendelighed med hensyn til både type og indhold af svaret.
En vigtig del af fortolkningsprocessen er også, hvor troværdig fortolkningen er. En
gennemgang af socialpsykologiske og kognitive studier viste, at en af de vigtigste
faktorer for tilskrivning af troværdighed generelt er en persons prestige. Det
konkluderes derfor, at en vigtig faktor for tilskrivning af troværdighed er fortolkerens
prestige. Jo højere prestige fortolkeren har, jo mere troværdigt opfattes svaret. Denne
form for prestige kaldes direkte prestige.
Men siden divination aktiverer antagelsen af en modintuitiv agent som den ultimative
kilde til tegnet, blev det undersøgt, om prestigeeffekten også gjaldt for denne type
agenter. Et psykologisk eksperiment viste, at det var tilfældet. Hvis tegnet i
divinationspraksissen opfattedes som hidrørende fra en meget prestigiøs modintuitiv
agent, ansås det for mere troværdigt, end hvis det hidrørte fra en mindre prestigiøs
modintuitiv agent.

Kapitel 5 omhandler oblativ divination. Den vigtigste forskel fra impetrativ

divination findes som nævnt i tegnproduktionen. Oblativ divination har brug for en
bemærkelsesværdig begivenhed som tegn, da der ikke er noget forudgående
spørgsmål.
Der identificeres tre måder, en begivenhed kan blive bemærkelsesværdig på. Den
første måde er ved, at begivenheden har en speciel relation til en persons personlige
bekymringer. Den anden er ved, at begivenheden kommer fra et katalog af anerkendte
varsler. Den tredje måde foreligger, når begivenheden i sig selv er så
bemærkelsesværdig, at den kalder på ekstra fortolkning. Disse tre primære måder
eftervises med eksempler fra mange forskellige kulturer.
Men en bemærkelsesværdig begivenhed er ikke nok i sig selv. Der argumenteres også
for vigtigheden af en kulturel model, som specificerer, at det er muligt at modtage
tegn fra modintuitive agenter. Denne model findes i form af kulturelt udbredte
narrativer og fungerer som en konstant påmindelse om muligheden for at finde et
varsel.

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 I kapitel 6 sammenlignes observationerne fra de foregående kapitler. Her
argumenteres der for, at en epidemiologisk tilgang kan forklare, hvordan vi kommer
fra det individuelt kognitive til det kulturelt udbredte.
Den kulturelle epidemiologi, hvilken betegnelse oprindeligt blev foreslået af Dan
Sperber, bruges som ramme for at samle kognitive, økologiske og sociale faktorer i
en sammenhængende model for udbredelsen af divination generelt. Dette sætter os i
stand til at integrere flere forskellige faktorer i en mere fleksibel forklaring. Dette
munder ud i et antal empiriske faktorer, som vil blive undersøgt i den empiriske
analyse.

Kapitel 7 er en gennemgang af forskningshistorien om divination i den romerske

republik. Der argumenteres for, at fire primære teser har været brugt til at forklare
romersk divination.
Den historiske tese forklarer divination som et produkt af historiske tilfældigheder.
Der argumenters for, at dette end ikke kan kvalificeres som en forklaring.
Den formalistiske tese ser romersk divination som blot og bar formaliteter, som
kunne udelades efter forgodtbefindende. En grundig læsning af kilderne synes
derimod at indikere, at det modsatte er tilfældet: Romerne tog divination meget
seriøst. Frygttesen forklarer romersk divination som produkt af frygt i befolkningen.
En systematisk undersøgelse af konsekvenserne af denne tese kan dog ikke støtte
denne tese.
Den fjerde og sidste tese, den funktionalistiske tese, forklarer eksistensen af
divination ud fra dennes funktion. Problemet med denne tese er, at det er svært at se,
hvordan man kan teste den. I en enkelt situation er det muligt, men her viser den
funktionalistiske tese sig ikke at holde. Det konkluderes derfor, at tidligere forsøg på
at forklare udbredelsen af romersk divination ikke har været succesfulde.

Kapitel 8 gennemgår de vigtigste kilder til romersk divination.

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 Kapitel 9 rummer den empiriske analyse af den impetrative divination i den
romerske republik. Samtlige kendte divinationspraksisser undersøges med henblik på
de faktorer, som den teoretiske model fandt var af relevans i kapitel 6.
Analysen viser, at alle divinationspraksisser var motiveret af aktuel eller potentiel
ulykke eller mangel på succes. Endvidere gjorde alle praksiser brug af ritualiseret
handling i den divinatoriske teknik.
De tilfælde, der betragtes som manipulation, er alle eksempler på, at en ritualisering
af handlingen mangler. Derimod er der ikke noget tegn på, at praksisser, der gør brug
af mennesker som producenter af tegn, skulle være mere troværdige. I romersk
republikansk tid findes slet ikke sådanne, men kun teknikker, som gør brug af dyr og
objekter. Dette går imod, hvad vi fandt i kapitel 4.
Der er også en høj korrelation mellem troværdigheden af en teknik og den direkte
prestige. Den indirekte prestige varierer omkring den direkte. Der er også forskellige
anvendelsesrestriktioner for de forskellige praksisser. Disse var medbestemmende
for, om en teknik blev benyttet ofte. Alle praksisser blev opfattet som kommunikation
fra en eller flere modintuitive agenter.
Alle forudsigelser, undtaget en enkelt, fra den teoretiske model synes derfor at
holde. Samtidig kan den teoretiske model hjælpe os til at forstå de historiske
dynamikker bag udbredelsen af divination.
Til sidst argumenteres der for, at fire simple ligninger kan beskrive relationen
mellem de forskellige faktorer og udbredelsen af divination.
For det første er troværdigheden af en praksis afhængig af ritualisering af handlingen
i den divinatoriske teknik. Dette er den vigtigste faktor.
Herefter følger den direkte prestige. Den indirekte prestige er mindre vigtig, men
dens effekt kan også ses. Sandsynligheden for, at en divinationspraksis bliver
benyttet, afhænger dels af troværdigheden, dels af brugbarheden i en kontekst gange
det antal gange, konteksten opstår.
Hvis en divinationspraksis’ brugbarhed passer godt til en kontekst, og denne ofte
opstår, er sandsynligheden for, at praksissen ofte vil blive benyttet, stor.

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Den sidste ligning udtrykker, at sandsynligheden for, at en divinationspraksis vil
overleve, afhænger af dens troværdighed samt dens udbredelse. En lidet troværdig
divinationspraksis kan overleve, hvis den er vidt udbredt, og en lidet udbredt praksis
kan eksistere, hvis den er meget troværdig. Men hvis praksissen kun er lidt udbredt
og lidt troværdig, er sandsynligheden for, at den overlever, lille. Dette passer med de
divinationspraksisser, vi ved forsvandt i republikansk tid. Disse fire ligninger synes at
kunne forklare udbredelsen af divination i den romerske republik.

Kapitel 10 behandler oblativ divination. Her vises det, hvordan varsler generelt
opfattes på baggrund af en kulturel model. Denne specificerer varslet som et tegn fra
guderne om fremtidig succes eller ulykke. Alle varselsord på latin implicerer denne
model, selvom de har forskellige nuancer. En analyse af frekvensen af disse
varselsord på latin viser, at denne kulturelle model ofte blev kommunikeret og derfor
må have været udbredt i den romerske kultur.
I den teoretiske del fandt vi, at en begivenhed på en eller anden måde skulle være
bemærkelsesværdig for at blive antaget som varsel. I det romerske materiale finder vi
alle tre mulige måder en begivenhed kan blive bemærkelsesværdig på. En
begivenhed, som bliver et varsel i kraft af sin relation til iagttagerens personlige
bekymringer, er ofte udtrykt ved det latinsk ord omen. Nogle omina tilhørte også den
anden type, som var varsler på grund af, at de tilhørte et katalog af på forhånd kendte
varsler.
Den tredje type, som er karakteriseret ved at være opmærksomhedskrævende i sig
selv, ses i de romerske prodigia. Da de romerske kilder om denne type er specielt
fyldige, undersøges de yderligere. Det viser sig, at den teoretiske model også kan
forklare andre væsentlige karakteristika ved disse, såsom hvorfor visse accepteres,
mens andre ikke gør. Generelt har varsler også den samme direkte prestigeeffekt som
impetrativ divination.

Kapitel 11 er en konklusion, som argumenterer for, at det er muligt og endda nyttigt

at bruge kognitive teorier til at udforske historiske problemer. Både kognitivt og

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historisk interesserede kan lære noget af dette. Det antydes også, at den forslåede
teoretiske model kan forklare, hvorfor divination til sidst forsvinder fra den romerske
kultur.

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