Bajaj Electricals, 1Q FY 2014
Bajaj Electricals, 1Q FY 2014
Bajaj Electricals, 1Q FY 2014
Durables
August 8, 2013
Bajaj Electricals
E&P despair to be done post 3QFY2014
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Adjusted PAT 1QFY14 783 20 2.6 1 4QFY13 1114 13 1.2 1 % chg (qoq) (29.7) 53.1 140bp 4.8 1QFY13 666 35 5.2 12 % chg (yoy) 17.6 (41.6) (262)bp (94.5)
BUY
CMP Target Price Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Consumer durables 1,599 86.0 0.8 233/150 21,582 2 18,733 5,542 BJEL.BO BJE IN
Bajaj Electricals Ltd (BEL) reported a poor set of numbers for 1QFY2014, mainly at the operating level. Its top-line reported a decent growth of 17.6% yoy to `783cr, in line with our expectation of `764cr. The EBITDA stood at `20cr which was lower by 41.6% yoy while margins at 2.6% were lower by 262bp yoy. Overall the EBIT margin of the company dipped by 265bp yoy mainly on account of cost overruns in delayed projects in the E&P segment which reported an EBIT loss of `26cr as compared to `7cr in 1QFY2013. Net profit, on the back of sluggish operating performance, plunged by 94.5% yoy to `0.66cr. Increased ad spends and premium segment launches on an uptrend: BEL has elaborated its ad spends by almost 50% to `75cr in FY2014E (from `38cr in FY2013) celebrating its 75th year, thereby increasing its visibility substantially. This in result is expected to create consumer pull, thereby enhancing the top-line of the company. Moreover, following the success met in in induction cookers (sales rise from `60cr FY2011 to `150cr in FY2013), BEL has launched a few models in the premium ceiling fan segment and air fryers in FY2013 and is looking forward to enter water purification products segment. Outlook and valuation: Amidst a poor performance for the quarter, BEL is set to have a clean slate post 1HFY2014, ie after the recent correction in the stock price and the significant hit it took from the cost over-runs in the E&P segment due to delayed project closures. On the back of recent developments, we expect the topline and bottom-line to grow at a CAGR of 14.9% and 107.7% (due to low base) respectively over FY2013-15E. Currently, the stock is trading at a PE of 10.4x for FY2015E earnings. Despite improving operational performance of E&P segment, we have revised our estimates downwards and continue to maintain Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price of `184 based on target PE of 12x for FY2015E.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 66.1 4.5 17.6 11.9
3m (5.8)
1yr 8.9
(11.5) (11.2)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA Margin (%) FDEPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2012 3,099 13.0 118 (20.0) 7.7 11.8 13.5 2.3 16.8 27.9 0.5 7.1 FY2013E 3,388 9.3 35 (69.9) 3.3 3.6 45.0 2.2 4.9 11.6 0.5 15.2 FY2014E 3,885 14.7 67 89.7 4.0 6.8 23.7 2.1 8.8 15.9 0.4 10.9 FY2015E 4,472 15.1 153 127.5 5.8 15.4 10.4 1.8 17.3 24.7 0.4 6.5
Twinkle Gosar
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6848 [email protected]
783
622
1114
915
(29.7)
(32.0) 1.0 (31.0) (30.6)
666
515
17.6
20.9 14.3 23.5 20.9
3,388
2,594
3,099
2,295
9.3
13.0 16.4 21.8 14.5
79.4
40
82.1
40
77.3
35
76.6
163
118.6
140
5.1
101
3.6
146
5.3
82
4.8
520
81.1
427
12.9 763 20
2.6
13.1
1101
12.3
632
15.3
3,277
133.3
2,862
13
1.2
53.1
140bp
35
5.2
(41.6)
(262)bp
111
3.3
237
7.7
(53.3)
(439)bp
16
4
16
4
1.8
(5.6)
16
3
(89.0)
25.2
69
14
63
13
9.4
15.4
2
2
8
1
(76.7)
68.6
3
18
(42.2)
(90.6)
42
69
14
176
189.8
(60.8)
0
2
0
1
0.0
18
15.7
85
0.0
176
0.2
1
0.1
0 171.8 4.8
2.7
6.3 (83.1) (94.5)
2.5
17.8
5.7
58.1 (69.4) (56.6)
61.6
1
38.2
1
34.2
12
21.0
51
33.0
118
1 0.1
1 0.1
4.8
12 1.8
(94.5)
35 1.0
118 (536.8)
(69.9)
( ` cr)
( ` cr)
400
10
1,060
1,114
31
53
65
86
35
26
36
783
13
544
701
794
666
734
873
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
Revenue (LHS)
EBITDA (LHS)
August 8, 2013
1QFY14
20
200
(%)
600
(%)
(bp change)
The Engineering & Projects segments revenue posted a robust growth of 53.6% yoy to `189cr, contributing 24.2% to the total revenue. However on the EBIT front, owing to closure of seven old and delayed project sites in 1QFY2014, the segment reported a loss of `26cr vis--vis EBIT loss of `7cr in the same quarter previous year. The pinch from the E&P segment is expected to continue for the next two quarters post which BEL will be done with its old delayed sites.
( ` cr)
( ` cr)
257 136 60
262
292
600 400
75
80
43 4QFY13 HMST
92
200
1QFY13
2QFY13 TLT
August 8, 2013
( ` cr)
400
350
369
Investment Rationale
Increased ad spends and premium segment launches to drive growth
BEL is set to celebrate its 75th year in July by elaborating its ad spends and new marketing schemes. The ad spend is to rise by almost 50% to `75cr (from `38cr in FY2013) in order to increase its visibility. The company has achieved decent growth with limited advertisements till now, hence, with this increment, it is expected to create consumer pull, thereby enhancing the top-line. The product launch of induction cooker last year has been successful with sales growing from `60cr in FY2011 to `150cr in FY2013. In addition, BEL has launched a few ceiling fan models in the premium segment which are doing well as of now. The Management expects these new launches to capture significant market share in the next 6-8 months. BEL has also introduced air fryers and is looking forward to enter the water purification products segment.
10.7
8.9
3.3 3.3
15 10 5 (9.1)
(` cr)
(5) (10)
(15) (20)
EBIT Margin
Capital employed for the E&P segment has reduced from `573cr in 3QFY2013E to `489cr in 1QFY2014. The improvement is owing to receipt of advances from new orders and provisions write off for FY2013E. BEL expects to generate sales at 50% of capital employed in FY2014, thus providing better returns visibility.
August 8, 2013
(%)
BEL has a leading position in consumer durables, mixer, heaters, luminaries, fans and induction cooker segment.
Source: Company, *including organised and un-organised sector, ^in organised sector.
Recent alliance: The companys association with Glass Line Technology, Noida for in-house manufacturing of water heaters will substitute the current imports from China and hence boost the operating margins of the company. In the water heater segment, BEL is poised to excel in volumes since the technology used by BEL is far better and advanced than its other two peers in this segment. Technology will be a key driver of revenue for this segment.
August 8, 2013
F Y2013
Electrical Appliances 36%
Luminories 11%
Lighting 15%
Source: Company
August 8, 2013
Financials
Exhibit 12: Key Assumptions
Sales Growth (%) Electrical Appliances Fans Lighting Luminaries Engineering & Projects Total Sales Growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E CAGR (FY2013-15E) 28.5 12.2 21.5 2.3 (17.3) 9.0 12.6 27.8 (1.3) 43.2 3.1 14.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 3.0 15.1 15.2 22.7 7.8 29.9 3.0 14.9
FY2015E FY2014E
25 20 15 10 5 0
(` cr)
1,000 -
FY2011
FY2013
FY2014E
FY2015E
August 8, 2013
(%)
with fresh orders being bagged at healthy margins coupled with stability in currency is expected to aid the EBITDA margin rebound.
9.1 7.7
10 5.8 9 8 7
(%) (%)
4.0 3.3
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
111 FY2013
154 FY2014E
258 FY2015E
5.4
35 FY2013
67 FY2014E
152 FY2015E
August 8, 2013
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
3x
10x
17x
24x
Concerns
Currency fluctuation: BEL has a substantial part of its products imported from various associate foreign brands which pose a risk of currency fluctuations, thereby impacting profitability of the company. Change in LPG cap policy reform: Any increment in availability of subsidized LPG cylinder which is capped to 6 per family per annum will impact the volume of induction cookers. Inflation: Inflationary pressure would resist volume pick up. Delay in E&P project execution.
11.6 45.0
72 16.3
Source: Capital Line, *TTM ended Jun13 quarter, ^TTM ended Mar13 quarter.
August 8, 2013
2,036
26.2
2,295
12.7
3,076 18.6 80 (18.1) 187 14.7 388 (8.7) 3,731 154 38.8 4.0 16 138 43.1 3.5 67 29 0.8 71 161 100 33 33.0 67 67 89.7 1.7 6.8 6.8
3,512 14.2 67 (15.8) 210 12.4 425 9.4 4,214 258 68.0 5.8 17 241 74.7 5.4 57 44 1.0 184 158 228 75 33.0 153 153 127.5 3.4 15.4 15.4
78
28.0
94
20.1
114
28.9
140
22.8
263
15.1
340
29.1
426 25.2 3,277 111 (53.3) 3.3 14 96 (57.1) 2.8 69 42 1.2 27 (83.1) 69 18 25.8 51 16 35 (69.9) 1.0 3.6 3.6
2,491 250
5.4
2,862 237
(5.1)
9.1 11 239
4.9
7.7 13 225
(6.1)
August 8, 2013
10
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Minority Interest Total Loans Long term Provisions Net Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation less: impairment of assets Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Long Term Loans and adv. Other non-current assets Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 230 74 3 153 37 97 154 1,322 48 68 295 911 1,026 296 737 272 85 3 184 3 44 109 186 1,423 54 92 355 922 1,045 378 904 332 100 232 30 73 265 1,550 50 141 421 938 1,238 312 911 365 116 250 33 73 253 1,742 41 155 470 1,076 1,410 333 940 402 133 269 36 73 268 1,983 25 179 541 1,238 1,592 391 1,037 20 591 611 112 16 (2.0) 737 20 680 700 187 19 (1.9) 904 20 709 728 166 25 (7.9) 911 20 743 763 160 25 (7.9) 940 20 864 884 136 25 (7.9) 1,037 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
August 8, 2013
11
August 8, 2013
12
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.0 0.1 6.5 0.1 0.4 3.6 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.1 0.6 2.1 0.1 0.3 4.3 4.3 34 111 126 46 11.4 38 109 121 46 10.2 49 109 121 28 10.6 47 109 121 27 11.1 47 109 121 30 32.4 36.7 24.1 24.8 27.9 16.8 10.6 11.6 4.9 14.7 15.9 8.8 23.2 24.7 17.3 8.7 0.7 4.2 24.1 21.5 0.0 24.2 7.2 0.7 3.9 18.7 22.6 0.1 18.2 2.8 0.7 4.1 8.6 30.9 0.1 6.0 3.5 0.7 4.5 10.7 27.9 0.1 8.7 5.4 0.7 4.6 16.5 27.9 0.1 15.6 14.9 14.9 15.9 2.8 61.3 11.8 11.8 13.1 2.8 70.2 3.6 3.6 5.0 2.8 73.1 6.8 6.8 8.3 2.8 76.6 15.4 15.4 17.1 2.8 88.7 10.8 10.1 2.6 1.7 0.6 6.5 2.2 13.5 12.2 2.3 1.7 0.5 7.1 1.9 45.0 32.0 2.2 1.5 0.5 15.2 1.8 23.7 19.2 2.1 2.0 0.4 10.9 1.8 10.4 9.4 1.8 2.0 0.4 6.5 1.6 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
August 8, 2013
13
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bajaj Electricals No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
August 8, 2013
14