IVRCL, 18th February, 2013
IVRCL, 18th February, 2013
IVRCL, 18th February, 2013
IVRCL Infrastructure
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Revenue EBITDA PAT 2QFY13 1,270 68 (68) 3QFY12 1,203 94 7 % chg (yoy) 5.6 (28.0) 1QFY13 995 70 (40) % chg (qoq) 27.7 (3.3) 72.1
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta Net Debt (` cr) 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (` ) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 890 2,700 1.9 75/28 1,491,489 2 19,468 5,887 IVRC.BO IVRC@IN
`29 `35
12 months
For 2QFY2013, IVRCL reported a disappointing set of numbers on the operating front, which were significantly below our and consensus estimates.
The companys order book stands at ~`25,000cr (4.9x trailing revenues). IVRCL is in an advanced stage of negotiation for sale of three road BOT projects. As per the Management, these asset sales are intended towards meeting the equity requirement for the road BOT projects and reducing debt levels. Execution improves, offset by abysmal EBITDAM: The company reported a
revenue of `1,270cr in 2QFY2013, registering a growth of 5.6% yoy which was ahead of our estimate by 19.9%. At the operating level, the company
posted an abysmal EBITDA margin of 5.4%, a decline of 250bp/172bp on yoy/qoq basis and was significantly below our estimates of 8.5%. This was mainly on back of various one-time provisions such as (a) service tax write off, (b) claims on receivables from clients and (c) cost overruns in 4-5 projects aggregating to ~`72cr provided during the quarter. On the earnings front, IVRCL reported a loss of `68cr (our estimate was a loss of `13cr) against a profit of `7cr in 3QFY2012. Outlook and valuation: IVRCL has a strong order book of ~`25,000cr (4.93x trailing revenue), which provides comfortable revenue visibility. However the proportion of slow moving orders remains high in the current order book. Given the slower-than-expected execution and weak performance in 1HFY2013, we lower the EPS estimates for FY2013 and FY20104 to `(3.9) and `2.9 respectively. The stock is trading at FY2014E P/E (excluding subsidiaries) and P/BV of 3.1x and 0.4x respectively. We recommend Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `35.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 13.7 2.9 24.7 58.7
3m 5.4
1yr 7.2
(30.6) (50.3)
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 [email protected]
2QFY13 1,270 1,202 68 5.4 114 22 17 (50) 18 (68) (5.4) (68) (5.4) (2.6)
% chg (yoy) 5.6 8.5 (28.0) (250)bp 18.5 (4.7) (43.8) (827.0) -
1QFY13 995 924 70 7.1 102 20 9 (42) (3) (40) (4.0) (40) (4.0) (1.29)
% chg (qoq) 27.7 30.0 (3.3) (172)bp 11.7 6.6 88.3 17.5 (756.9) 72.1 34.8 72.1 (138)bp 97.8
FY2012# 6,178 5,677 501 8.1 506 119 170 46 28 18 0.3 18 0.3 0.7
FY2011 5,651 5,137 515 9.1 218 76 12 233 75 158 2.8 158 2.8 5.9
8,500
8, ,800 Water Transport T Bu uilding Powe er Oil & Gas s Water Tr ransport Build ding Power Mining Ot thers
Change i estimate in es
Considering the poor performance for 1HFY201 we are re g p 13, evising our revenue estimates f FY2013(9 for 9M) and FY2014 to `3,773cr and `6 6,706cr respe ectively. EBITDAM h been revi has ised to 6.9% and 8.4% fo FY2013 and FY2014. Due to or lower-than-expected rev venue perform mance and h higher interes cost, we are now st estimating a loss of `119cr (our earlier estimate was of a profit of `9.5c and e cr) `88cr (our earlier estimate was of a profit of `10 01.3cr) for FY Y2013 and FY Y2014, respectively y.
FY2014E Variation (%) n (11.2) (103 3)bp Earlie Estimates er 6,897 8.2 101.3 Revised Estim mates 6, ,706 8.4 88.3 8 Variat tion (%) (2.8) (78)bp (12.8)
35
Variation (%) -1
(3.9) 2.9
Company background
IVRCL is one of the leading construction companies in India. Set up in 1987, the company is based in Hyderabad and is promoted by E Sudhir Reddy. IVRCL has a track record of executing infrastructure projects over the last two decades. The company is the leader in water management and irrigation systems in India. It also operates in the construction of road, buildings, industrial structures and power transmission towers.
121.0 49.2 (5.2) 14.9 8.1 22.5 71.0 29.1 (3.5) 12.1 31.7 3.0 9.1 2.6
12,853 14,243 16,382 53,171 60,666 69,525 5,250 2,676 6,010 1,973 5,863 2,344 6,906 2,180 6,576 2,804 8,053 2,455
1,444 1,788
14.3 64.3
27 1,784 1,811 1,398 12 3,220 662 142 521 20 389 4,014 209 1,343 101 932 1,429 1,723 2,291 3,220
53 1,800 1,853 1,613 12 3,479 750 184 566 35 614 4,700 245 1,945 164 661 1,686 2,437 2,264 3,479
53 1,934 1,987 2,096 9 4,092 924 232 692 26 635 5,452 273 1,930 143 953 2,153 2,713 2,739 4,092
53 8 2,209 2,270 2,638 (39) 4,870 1,011 321 690 2 1,584 5,569 272 1,926 88 1,425 1,857 2,975 2,594 4,870
53 8 2,065 2,126 2,738 (39) 4,825 1,111 390 721 2 1,584 5,123 268 1,852 224 1,155 1,624 2,604 2,518 4,825
53 8 2,128 2,190 2,938 (39) 5,089 1,211 495 717 2 1,584 5,895 303 2,241 12 1,356 1,983 3,108 2,786 5,089
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12(15M) FY13E(9M) FY14E
1.7 2.8 0.4 2.4 0.4 4.8 0.6 16.9 16.9 10.2 0.7 67.7 8.0 82.5 1.7 11.4 12.8 0.6 10.5 13.2 14.0 13.2 9.1 15 75 95 230 0.7 3.0 2.0
3.7 2.9 0.4 2.8 0.4 4.2 0.6 7.9 7.9 9.9 0.8 69.3 8.7 64.2 1.7 9.5 9.0 0.7 9.9 14.2 15.0 11.5 7.8 15 109 135 212 0.8 2.7 2.2
4.9 3.3 0.4 2.1 0.5 5.3 0.7 5.9 5.9 8.8 0.6 74.3 7.8 67.9 1.6 8.2 9.6 0.9 7.0 11.6 12.2 8.2 6.8 17 125 164 235 1.0 3.8 1.7
49.2 6.5 0.4 0.5 6.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 4.5 73.9 6.2 39.1 1.4 3.4 8.4 1.1 (1.8) 8.5 8.8 0.8 6.4 20 142 207 280 1.1 5.1 0.8
0.4 2.4 0.9 12.6 0.7 (3.9) (3.9) (1.6) 0.7 69.2 5.1 115.0 0.8 4.7 14.2 1.2 (6.3) 3.9 4.1 (5.4) 3.6 20 138 200 259 1.2 9.7 0.6
10.1 4.6 0.4 2.4 0.6 6.6 0.7 2.9 2.9 6.3 0.7 71.3 6.8 67.0 1.4 6.3 10.0 1.3 1.6 9.2 9.5 4.1 5.8 16 111 152 213 1.3 5.2 1.1
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
IVRCL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11