Population viability analysis

Across large parts of the world, wildlife has to coexist with human activity in highly modified and fragmented landscapes. Combining concepts from population viability analysis and spatial reserve design, this study develops efficient quantitative methods for identifying conservation core areas at large, even national or continental scales. The proposed methods emphasize long-term population persistence, are applicable to both fragmented and natural landscape structures, and produce a hierarchical zonation of regional conservation priority. The methods are applied to both observational data for threatened butterflies at the scale of Britain and modelled probability of occurrence surfaces for indicator species in part of Australia. In both cases, priority landscapes important for conservation management are identified.

Population census size (N C ) and effective population sizes (N e ) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both N C and N e are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators complement or improve upon traditional demographic estimators. We review the kinds and applications of estimators of both N C and N e , and the often undervalued and misunderstood ratio of effective-to-census size (N e /N C ). We focus on recently improved and well evaluated methods that are most likely to facilitate conservation. Finally, we outline areas of future research to improve N e and N C estimation in wild populations.

Population size is a major determinant of extinction risk. However, controversy remains as to how large populations need to be to ensure persistence. It is generally believed that minimum viable population sizes (MVPs) would be highly specific, depending on the environmental and life history characteristics of the species. We used population viability analysis to estimate MVPs for 102 species. We define a minimum viable population size as one with a 99% probability of persistence for 40 generations. The models are comprehensive and include age-structure, catastrophes, demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding depression. The mean and median estimates of MVP were 7316 and 5816 adults, respectively. This is slightly larger than, but in general agreement with, previous estimates of MVP. MVPs did not differ significantly among major taxa, or with latitude or trophic level, but were negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with the length of the study used to parameterize the model. A doubling of study duration increased the estimated MVP by approximately 67%. The increase in extinction risk is associated with greater temporal variation in population size for models built from longer data sets. Short-term studies consistently underestimate the true variances for demographic parameters in populations. Thus, the lack of long-term studies for endangered species leads to widespread underestimation of extinction risk. The results of our simulations suggest that conservation programs, for wild populations, need to be designed to conserve habitat capable of supporting approximately 7000 adult vertebrates in order to ensure long-term persistence. #

We developed procedures for using Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) to model habitat and population viability of selected at-risk ®sh and wildlife species. The BBN models represent the ecological causal web of key environmental correlates (KECs) that most in¯uence habitat capability, potential population response for each species, and in¯uence of habitat planning alternatives. BBN models represent site-speci®c KECs, habitat capability at the subwatershed level, and pattern of habitat capability across all subwatersheds. BBNs use Dirichlet prior probability distributions and standard Bayesian updating of posterior probabilities. We derived estimates of prior and conditional probabilities from a mix of empirical data and expert judgment, mostly the latter. Sensitivity analyses identi®ed planning decisions and KECs that most in¯uence species outcomes, and can help prioritize monitoring activities. BBN models, however, substitute for neither ®eld studies nor empirical, quantitative population viability analyses of population demography and genetics. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Elasticity analysis estimates the proportional change in the population growth rate for a proportional change in a vital rate (ie survival, growth or reproduction). It can be used to pinpoint those parts of an organism's life history that should be the focus of management effort, or those that ...

In farmlands, the population viability of many amphibians is suspected to depend on the resistance the matrix of crop fields presents to movements between ponds and terrestrial sites and movements among ponds. Over recent decades the increase in cereal growing at the expense of cattle breeding has caused a drastic change in habitat matrix in many European regions. We investigated the effect of such change on populations of three newt species ( Triturus helveticus , T. alpestris , and T. cristatus ) by comparing their abundances in sites that varied in amount of cultivated ground. A multivariate regression analysis of the relationship of newt abundance to both pond and landscape variables demonstrated the negative influence of cultivated ground on abundance. The width of the uncultivated sector linking the pond to the forest was a good predictor of abundance after the influences of both pond area and fish presence were removed. Moreover, newt presence was positively related to the number of ponds within that 50-ha surrounding area, highlighting the role of metapopulation functioning in newt occupancy of ponds. The relationship between newt abundance and width of uncultivated sectors agrees with present knowledge of the orientation mechanisms that underlie migration movements in urodeles. Such a relationship between connectedness and sector width shows that narrow, linear corridors such as hedgerows may not be useful in newt conservation. Our study also highlights the need to incorporate a behavioral component of habitat use into models of connectivity in conservation biology.

1After an absence of almost 100 years, the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx is slowly recovering in Germany along the German–Czech border. Additionally, many reintroduction schemes have been discussed, albeit controversially, for various locations. We present a habitat suitability model for lynx in Germany as a basis for further management and conservation efforts aimed at recolonization and population development.2We developed a statistical habitat model using logistic regression to quantify the factors that describe lynx home ranges in a fragmented landscape. As no data were available for lynx distribution in Germany, we used data from the Swiss Jura Mountains for model development and validated the habitat model with telemetry data from the Czech Republic and Slovenia. We derived several variables describing land use and fragmentation, also introducing variables that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a larger scale than the map resolution.3We obtained a model with only one significant variable that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a scale of about 80 km2. This result is biologically meaningful, reflecting the absence of intensive human land use on the scale of an average female lynx home range. Model testing at a cut-off level of P > 0·5 correctly classified more than 80% of the Czech and Slovenian telemetry location data of resident lynx. Application of the model to Germany showed that the most suitable habitats for lynx were large-forested low mountain ranges and the large forests in east Germany.4Our approach illustrates how information on habitat fragmentation on a large scale can be linked with local data to the potential benefit of lynx conservation in central Europe. Spatially explicit models like ours can form the basis for further assessing the population viability of species of conservation concern in suitable patches.After an absence of almost 100 years, the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx is slowly recovering in Germany along the German–Czech border. Additionally, many reintroduction schemes have been discussed, albeit controversially, for various locations. We present a habitat suitability model for lynx in Germany as a basis for further management and conservation efforts aimed at recolonization and population development.We developed a statistical habitat model using logistic regression to quantify the factors that describe lynx home ranges in a fragmented landscape. As no data were available for lynx distribution in Germany, we used data from the Swiss Jura Mountains for model development and validated the habitat model with telemetry data from the Czech Republic and Slovenia. We derived several variables describing land use and fragmentation, also introducing variables that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a larger scale than the map resolution.We obtained a model with only one significant variable that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a scale of about 80 km2. This result is biologically meaningful, reflecting the absence of intensive human land use on the scale of an average female lynx home range. Model testing at a cut-off level of P > 0·5 correctly classified more than 80% of the Czech and Slovenian telemetry location data of resident lynx. Application of the model to Germany showed that the most suitable habitats for lynx were large-forested low mountain ranges and the large forests in east Germany.Our approach illustrates how information on habitat fragmentation on a large scale can be linked with local data to the potential benefit of lynx conservation in central Europe. Spatially explicit models like ours can form the basis for further assessing the population viability of species of conservation concern in suitable patches.

Infectious disease can be a concern for several aspects of conservation biology, such as determining threats to species, estimating population viability, and designing reserves, captive breeding, and recovery programs. Several measures are useful for describing infectious diseases in host populations, but it is not straightforward to determine the degree to which a particular disease may affect a host population. The most basic epidemiological theory suggests that populations should be least subject to host-specific infectious disease when they are at low abundance ( paradoxically, the state at which they are in most need of conservation action). There are important exceptions, however, such as when a reservoir host exists or when Allee or stochastic effects occur. Several of the key threats to biodiversity-habitat alteration, introduced species, pollution, resource exploitation, and climate change-can facilitate and/or impair transmission of infectious disease. Common management tools such as population viability analysis rarely address infectious disease explicitly. We suggest that such an inclusion is both possible and warranted. Considerations of infectious disease may influence the way we determine whether a species is in need of protection and how we might design reserves and captive breeding programs. Examples from the literature suggest that (1) introduced pathogens can make abundant species rare and (2) diseases of domestic animals can dramatically affect rare species. For both scenarios, conditions that cause stress or reduce genetic variation may increase susceptibility to disease, whereas crowding and cross-species contact can increase transmission. Southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) make an interesting case study for consideration of the intersection of epidemiology and conservation because disease may be an important factor limiting the growth of otter populations. We conclude that pathogens are of increasing concern for conservation. Because many newly emerging pathogen dynamics often do not conform to the simplifying assumptions used in classic epidemiology, a detailed understanding of pathogen life history will illuminate the intersection of epidemiology and conservation theory.

Roads and traffic are pervasive components of landscapes throughout the world: they cause wildlife mortality, disrupt animal movements, and increase the risk of extinction. Expensive engineering solutions, such as overpasses and tunnels, are increasingly being adopted to mitigate these effects. Although some species readily use such structures, their success in preventing population extinction remains unknown. Here, we use population viability modeling to assess the effectiveness of tunnels for the endangered Mountain Pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus) in Australia. The underpasses reduced, but did not completely remove, the negative effects of a road. The expected minimum population size of a "reconnected" population remained 15% lower than that of a comparable "undivided" population. We propose that the extent to which the risk of extinction decreases should be adopted as a measure of effectiveness of mitigation measures and that the use of population modeling become routine in these evaluations.

Roads affect animal populations in three adverse ways. They act as barriers to movement, enhance mortality due to collisions with vehicles, and reduce the amount and quality of habitat. Putting fences along roads removes the problem of road mortality but increases the barrier effect. We studied this trade-off through a stochastic, spatially explicit, individual-based model of population dynamics. We investigated the conditions under which fences reduce the impact of roads on population persistence. Our results showed that a fence may or may not reduce the effect of the road on population persistence, depending on the degree of road avoidance by the animal and the probability that an animal that enters the road is killed by a vehicle. Our model predicted a lower value of traffic mortality below which a fence was always harmful and an upper value of traffic mortality above which a fence was always beneficial. Between these two values the suitability of fences depended on the degree of road avoidance. Fences were more likely to be beneficial the lower the degree of road avoidance and the higher the probability of an animal being killed on the road. We recommend the use of fences when traffic is so high that animals almost never succeed in their attempts to cross the road or the population of the species of concern is declining and high traffic mortality is known to contribute to the decline. We discourage the use of fences when population size is stable or increasing or if the animals need access to resources on both sides of the road, unless fences are used in combination with wildlife crossing structures. In many cases, the use of fences may be beneficial as an interim measure until more permanent measures are implemented.

Loss of genetic variation may render populations more vulnerable to pathogens due to inbreeding depression and depletion of variation in genes responsible for immunity against parasites. Here we review the evidence for the significance of variation in genes of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) for conservation efforts. MHC molecules present pathogen-derived antigens to the effector cells of the immune system and thus trigger the adaptive immune response. Some MHC genes are the most variable functional genes in the vertebrate genome. Their variation is clearly of adaptive significance and there is considerable evidence that its maintenance is mainly due to balancing selection imposed by pathogens. However, while the evidence for selection shaping MHC variation on the historical timescale is compelling, a correlation between levels of MHC variation and variation at neutral loci is often observed, indicating that on a shorter timescale drift also substantially affects MHC, leading to depletion of MHC diversity. The evidence that the loss of MHC variation negatively affects population survival is so far equivocal and difficult to separate from effects of general inbreeding. Some species with depleted MHC variation seem to be particularly susceptible to infection, but other species thrive and expand following severe bottlenecks that have drastically limited their MHC variation. However, while the latter demonstrate that MHC variation is not always critical for population survival, these species may in fact represent rare examples of survival despite of the loss of MHC variation. There is clearly a compelling need for data that would disclose the possible consequences of MHC diversity for population viability. In particular, we need more data on the impact of MHC allelic richness on the abundance of parasites or prevalence of disease in populations, while controlling for the role of general inbreeding. Before such evidence accumulates, captive breeding programs and other conservation measures aimed at inbreeding avoidance should be favoured over those protecting only MHC variation, especially since inbreeding avoidance programs would usually conserve both types of genetic diversity simultaneously.

Seeds were sampled from 19 populations of the rare Gentiana pneumonanthe, ranging in size from 5 to more than 50,000 flowering plants. An analysis was made of variation in a number of life-history characters in relation to population size and offspring heterozygosity (based on seven polymorphic isozyme loci). Life-history characters included seed weight, germination rate, proportion of seeds germinating, seedling mortality, seedling weight, adult weight, flower production per plant and proportion of plants flowering per family. Principal component analysis (PCA) reduced the dataset to three main fitness components. The first component was highly correlated with adult weight and flowering performance, the second with germination performance and the third component with seed and seedling weight and seedling mortality. The latter two components were considered as being maternally influenced, since these comprised life-history traits that were significantly correlated with seed weight. Multiple regression analysis showed that variation in the first fitness component was mainly associated with heterozygosity and not with population size, while the third fitness component was only correlated with population size and not with heterozygosity. The latter relationship appeared to be non-linear, which suggests a stronger loss of fitness in the smallest populations. The second (germination) component was neither correlated with population size nor with genetic variation. There was only a weak association between population size, heterozygosity and the population coefficients of variation for each life history character. Most correlation coefficients were negative, however, which suggests that there is more variation

Genetic data can provide a powerful tool for those interested in the ecology and management of wildlife, especially when it is combined with behavioral, demographic, or spatial information. Although the full potential of genetic approaches to the study of wildlife populations has yet to be realized, the application of genetic analyses is becoming increasingly feasible and cost-effective. This is due primarily to recent advances in the number and types of genetic markers available, the development of sophisticated data analysis methods, and increased automation of laboratory instrumentation. These technological advances have broadened the list of questions that can be answered with genetic data, allowing inference at multiple levels of resolution (inter-individual to inter-specific) and temporal and spatial scales. Genetic data can be used to assess mating systems, hybridization, gene flow, effective population size, and population viability. Genetic data can also be used to define management units; identify individuals, sex, and species; and to provide insights into demographic patterns associated with the reduction and expansion of populations. All of these factors are either related to a species' ecology or provide important information for management and conservation. We describe some applications of genetic data, discuss processes affecting genetic variation within and among populations, and provide an overview of genetic terminology and how genetic variation is measured. As genetic methods become progressively more accessible and adaptable to an ever-widening array of questions, it is expected that they will play an increasingly important role in the ecology and management of wildlife.

Behavioral theories, insights, and techniques are too frequently ignored by conservation biologists. Yet an animal's survival and reproductive success clearly depend on its behavior. Using examples from marine, freshwater, and terrestrial realms, I assert that behavioral information is invaluable in five conservation areas: (1) managing wild species (e.g., designing marine reserves; reducing animal-human conflicts; understanding and managing species' responses to human-induced environmental stress such as fishing, introduced species, and chemical, visual, and acoustic pollution); (2) actively reversing the decline of imperiled wild species (e.g., reducing bycatch by improving selectivity of fishing gear; re-establishing breeding populations and boosting reproduction); (3) assessing biodiversity (e.g., modeling population viability; censusing and monitoring populations and species); (4) captive breeding and reintroduction programs (e.g., minimizing loss of valuable phenotypes; teaching or maintaining valuable survival skills); and (5) changing human behavior in resource exploitation (e.g., using principles from social psychology). Both realized and potential applications to fishes are stressed. Finally, behavioral diversity, a valuable but neglected element of biodiversity, needs to be explicitly conserved to maintain diverse populations. Arguments are presented that the conservation of species diversity and genetic diversity alone does not necessarily protect important behavioral diversity. The maintenance of both individual and population variability may be essential for the preservation of a species.

Humans have a variety of direct and indirect impacts on wildlife and a number of methods have been proposed to identify and quantify anthropogenic stressors that negatively impact wildlife. The ideal method would ultimately help predict the presence, absence, or population viability of animals living with a particular stressor. We critically review seven methods that have been used, or are potentially useful, to identify anthropogenic stressors on animals. We rank them from fitness indicators to disturbance indicators: breeding success, mate choice, fluctuating asymmetry, flight initiation distance, immunocompetence, glucocorticoids, and cardiac response. We describe each method's ease of use, precision in quantifying the stressor, accuracy in predicting the presence, absence, or population viability of a species experiencing a given stressor, and the repeatability of the results across populations and species. From this analysis, we conclude that there is no single optimal method to quantify anthropogenic stressors; method selection will depend on precise goals and fiscal constraints. #

Wind-farms receive public and governmental support as an alternative energy source mitigating air pollution. However, they can have adverse effects on wildlife, particularly through collision with turbines. Research on wind-farm effects has focused on estimating mortality rates, behavioural changes or interspecific differences in vulnerability. Studies dealing with their effects on endangered or rare species populations are notably scarce. We tested the hypothesis that wind-farms increase extinction probability of long-lived species through increments in mortality rates. For this purpose, we evaluate potential consequences of wind-farms on the population dynamics of a globally endangered long-lived raptor in an area where the species maintains its greatest stronghold and wind-farms are rapidly increasing. Nearly onethird of all breeding territories of our model species are in wind-farm risk zones. Our intensive survey shows that wind-farms decrease survival rates of this species differently depending on individual breeding status. Consistent with population monitoring, population projections showed that all subpopulations and the meta-population are decreasing. However, population sizes and, therefore, time to extinction significantly decreased when wind-farm mortality was included in models. Our results represent a qualitative warning exercise showing how very low reductions in survival of territorial and non-territorial birds associated with wind-farms can strongly impact population viability of long-lived species. This highlights the need for examining long-term impacts of wind-farms rather than focusing on short-term mortality, as is often promoted by power companies and some wildlife agencies. Unlike other non-natural causes of mortality difficult to eradicate or control, wind-farm fatalities can be lowered by powering down or removing risky turbines and/or farms, and by placing them outside areas critical for endangered birds.

Several potential proximate causes may be implicated in a recent (post-1984) decline in moose (Alces alces andersoni) numbers at their southern range periphery in northwest Minnesota, USA. These causes include deleterious effects of infectious pathogens, some of which are associated with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), negative effects of climate change, increased food competition with deer or moose, legal or illegal hunting, and increased predation by gray wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus). Long-standing factors that may have contributed to the moose decline include those typically associated with marginal habitat such as nutritional deficiencies. We examined survival and productivity among radiocollared (n¼152) adult female and juvenile moose in northwest Minnesota during 1995-2000, and assessed cause of death and pathology through carcass necropsy of radiocollared and non-radiocollared animals.

Most of the world's large rivers are fragmented by dams. Fragmentation of the river ecosystem alters migration patterns among fish populations and converts free-flowing river to reservoir habitat. In this study, we used an individual-based genetic metapopulation model to study the effects of fragmentation on the population viability and genetic diversity of a large-river fish, the white sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus. In the first of two simulation experiments, we fragmented a 200 km river reach by building 1 to 20 virtual dams. Increased fragmentation produced an exponential decline in the likelihood of persistence, but no extinction threshold to suggest a minimum viable length of river. Compounding isolation with the loss of free-flowing habitat did not further reduce viability until free-flowing habitat was nearly eliminated, at which point extinction was certain. Genetic diversity within (among) populations decreased (increased) as we 'built' the first several dams. Adding more dams caused the number of persisting populations to decline and eroded genetic diversity within and among populations. Our second simulation experiment evaluated the effects of different levels of upstream and downstream migration between river segments. The results of these migration experiments highlighted the importance of balanced migration rates. We found that extinction risk was high for populations linked by high downstream, and low upstream, migration rates, as is often the case in impounded rivers. Our results support the view that migration patterns will play a significant role in determining the viability of riverine fishes, such as the white sturgeon, in river ecosystems fragmented by dams.

The scale of natural resource management is currently changing from local or stand scale to the landscape scale. The lack of management experience at this scale, and the limited feasibility of experiments have increased the use of scenario modeling to analyze the effects of different management actions on focal species. However, current modeling approaches are poorly suited for the analysis of viability in dynamic landscapes. Demographic (e.g., metapopulation) models of species living in these landscapes do not incorporate the variability in spatial patterns of early successional habitats, and landscape models have not been linked previously to population viability models. We link a landscape model to a metapopulation model and demonstrate the use of this model by analyzing the effect of forest management options on the viability of the Sharp-tailed Grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) in the Pine Barrens region of northwestern Wisconsin (USA). This approach allows viability analysis based on landscape dynamics brought about by processes such as succession, disturbances, and silviculture. The landscape component of the model (LANDIS) predicts forest landscape dynamics in the form of a time series of raster maps. These maps are combined into a time series of patch structures, which form the dynamic spatial structure of the metapopulation component (RAMAS). The results showed that the viability of this species was sensitive to landscape dynamics and demographic variables such as fecundity and mortality. Ignoring the landscape dynamics gives overly optimistic results and results based only on landscape dynamics (ignoring demography) lead to a different ranking of the management options than the ranking based on the more realistic model incorporating both landscape and demographic dynamics. Thus, models of species in dynamic landscapes must consider both habitat and population dynamics simultaneously.

There has been a recent interest in integrating an understanding of behaviour into conservation biology. Unfortunately, there has been no paradigm for such a process. Without a clear framework for integration, conservation biologists may have diculties recognising how behavioural knowledge can help solve real-world conservation problems. Eective population size (N e ) is a key demographic parameter used to understand population viability. A variety of behaviours and behavioural traits impact N e , yet their importance for conservation is under-appreciated. We suggest that identifying behavioural traits that aect N e provides a paradigm for integrating behavioural biology into conservation biology. Behaviour can aect N e through at least three dierent mechanisms: reducing N Ð the population size; reducing r Ð the population growth rate, and/or by increasing reproductive skew. We discuss how nine common behavioural traits can reduce N e , and suggest how an understanding of these traits may inform management of both free-living and captive animals. #

Background: In recent decades, large pelagic and coastal shark populations have declined dramatically with increased fishing; however, the status of sharks in other systems such as coral reefs remains largely unassessed despite a long history of exploitation. Here we explore the contemporary distribution and sighting frequency of sharks on reefs in the greater-Caribbean and assess the possible role of human pressures on observed patterns.

Conservation genetics studies of populations bottlenecks are commonly framed under the detrimental paradigm of inbreeding depression. This conceptual paradigm presupposes a direct and unambiguous relationship between population size, genetic diversity, fitness, and extinction. Here, I review a series of studies that emphasize the role of chance, selection, and history in determining the genetic consequences of population bottlenecks. The variable responses of bottlenecks to fitness, phenotypic variation, and heritable variation emphasize the necessity to explore the relationship between molecular genetic diversity, fitness, adaptive genetic diversity, and extinction beyond the detrimental paradigm of inbreeding depression. Implications for conservation and management are presented as guidelines and testable predictions regarding the potential effects of bottlenecks on population viability and extinction.

Methods for habitat modeling based on landscape simulations and population viability modeling based on habitat quality are well developed, but no published study of which we are aware has effectively joined them in a single, comprehensive analysis. We demonstrate the application of a population viability model for ovenbirds (Seiurus aumcapillus) that is linked to realistic landscape simulations using a GIs-based habitat suitability index (HSI) model. We simulated potential future characteristics of a hardwood forest in southern Missouri under two tree harvest scenarios using LANDIS. We applied three different versions of the HSI model (lower, best, and upper estimates) to output from the landscape simulations and used RAMAS GIs to link estimates of temporally dynamic habitat suitability, through fecundity and carrying capacity, to ovenbird population viability. Abundances and viability differed more between the upper and lower HSI estimates than between the two forest management scenarios. The viability model was as sensitive to the relationship between reproductive success and habitat suitability as it was to rates of first-year survival and reproductive success itself. Habitat-based viability models and the wildlife studies they support, therefore, would benefit greatly from improving the accuracy and precision of habitat suitability estimates.

. Genetic and ecological effects of salmon farming on wild salmon: modelling from experimental results. À ICES Journal of Marine Science, 63: 1234e1247. Cultured salmonids are released or escape into the wild in large numbers and may make up significant proportions of wild salmonid populations in fresh-and saltwater, causing considerable concern for the fitness and productivity of these populations. This paper focuses on the effects of escaped farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) on wild salmon. Farmed salmon have been under artificial selection for growth and other economically important traits for 30 years and are genetically different in their origin at the molecular and quantitative genetic levels. Escaped farmed salmon spawn in the wild with limited success. Their offspring outgrow those of wild origin but suffer higher mortality. Whole-river experiments in Ireland and Norway have shown that the lifetime success of farmed salmon is reduced relative to wild salmon. Based on data from these experiments, we model the future of wild salmon populations experiencing invasions of escaped farmed salmon. Simulations with a fixed intrusion rate of 20% escaped farmed salmon at spawning suggest that substantial changes take place in wild salmon populations within ten salmon generations (w40 years). Low-invasion scenarios suggest that farmed offspring are unlikely to become established in the population, whereas high-invasion scenarios suggest that populations are eventually mixtures of hybrid and farmed descendants. Recovery of the wild population is not likely under all circumstances, even after many decades without further intrusion. Managers of wild salmon will have difficulty in obtaining broodstock of the original wild population after a few generations of high intrusion. We conclude that further measures to reduce escapes of farmed salmon and their spawning in wild populations are urgently needed.

Anthropogenic modification of the countryside has resulted in much of the landscape consisting of fragments of once continuous habitat. Increasing habitat connectivity at the landscape-scale has a vital role to play in the conservation of species restricted to such remnant patches, especially as species may attempt to track zones of habitat that satisfy their niche requirements as the climate changes. Conservation policies and management strategies frequently advocate corridor creation as one approach to restore connectivity and to facilitate species movements through the landscape. Here we examine the utility of hedgerows as corridors between woodland habitat patches using rigorous systematic review methodology. Systematic searching yielded 26 studies which satisfied the review inclusion criteria. The empirical evidence currently available is insufficient to evaluate the effectiveness of hedgerow corridors as a conser-vation tool to promote the population viability of woodland fauna. However, the studies did provide anecdotal evidence of positive local population effects and indicated that some species use hedgerows as movement conduits. More replicated and controlled field investigations or longterm monitoring are required in order to allow practitioners and policy makers to make better informed decisions about hedgerow corridor creation and preservation. The benefits of such corridors in regard to increasing habitat connectivity remain equivocal, and the role of corridors in mitigating the effects of climate change at the landscape-scale is even less well understood.

Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24-28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator-prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation.

A Bayesian probability network has been developed to integrate the various scientific findings of an interdisciplinary research project on brown trout and their habitat in Switzerland. The network is based on a dynamic, age-structured population model, which is extended to include the effect of natural and anthropogenic influence factors. These include gravel bed conditions, water quality, disease rates, water temperature, habitat conditions, stocking practices, angler catch and flood frequency. Effect strength and associated uncertainty are described by conditional probability distributions. These conditional probabilities were developed using experimental and field data, literature reports, and the elicited judgment of involved scientists. The model was applied to brown trout populations at 12 locations in four river basins. Model testing consisted of comparing predictions of juvenile and adult density under current conditions to the results of recent population surveys. The relative importance of the various influence factors was then assessed by comparing various model scenarios, including a hypothetical reference condition. A measure of causal strength was developed based on this comparison, and the major stress factors were analyzed according to this measure for each location. We found that suboptimal habitat conditions are the most important and ubiquitous stress factor and have impacts of sufficient magnitude to explain the reduced fish populations observed in recent years. However, other factors likely contribute to the declines, depending on local conditions. The model developed in this study can be used to provide these site-specific assessments and predict the effect of candidate management measures.

The conservation of the endangered Leadbeater's Possum, Gymnobelideus leadbeateri, is one of the most contentious forestry issues in Australia. The challenge is to identify strategies to conserve the species in the significant portion of its range in the central highlands of Victoria (southeastern Australia) where timber harvesting occurs. We used ALEX, a simulation program for population viability analysis, to explore the effectiveness of potential forest management strategies to enhance the persistence of G. leadbeateri in areas of wood production. Our study focused on the relationship between the risk of metapopulation extinction and (1) the number and spatial arrangement of 50-ha logging areas that could be reserved from timber harvesting and (2) the impacts of post-fire salvage logging in reserved areas. We modeled complex patch structures within two forest blocks (Murrindindi and Steavenson) that were based on maps of both existing patches of suitable habitat for G. leadbeateri and the location of potential logging areas. We recorded high values for the probability of extinction of metapopulations of G. leadbeateri when existing strategies for the conservation of the species within the Murrindindi and Steavenson Forest Blocks were modeled. Exclusion of salvage logging operations from burned, old,growth forests significantly improved the species" prospects of survival in both the short and long term. Withdrawal of timber harvesting from some proposed logging coupes made a significant, positive long-term contribution to metapopulation persistence. But there will be a delay of at least 150 years until areas set aside now make a significant contribution to metapopulation persistence. This is the time required for existing stands of regrowth to develop old-growth characteristics that are an essential habitat component for G. leadbeateK We examined the effectiveness of different designs for setting aside a total reserved area of 300 ha. These ranged from a single 300-ha reserve to 12, 25-ha reserves. Populations in smaller reserves were vulnerable to extinction from demographic stochasticity and environmental variability. Conversely, a small number of larger reserves were susceptible to destruction in a single, catastrophic wildfire, highlighting the need for several dispersed reserves. Analyses of the sensitivity of various management options to variations in fire frequency and extent, movement capability, and a wide range of other factors indicated that the conservation strategy that gave the best relative outcome for G. leadbeateri was both to set aside several 50 to l O0-ha reserves in every forest block and to preclude post-fire salvage logging operations from these areas if they burned in a wildfire.

An assessment is presented of three computer packages, ALEX, RAMAS/space and VORTEX, that have been developed for analyses of metapopulation viability. Their usefulness was assessed in the context of the need to understand the assumptions and limitations of the programs. The study examined many attributes of these programs, ranging from availability and "user-friendliness" to the mathematical structure and procedures underpinning the sub-models. Key features and strengths of, and differences between, the various programs were highlighted. They are structured differently and vary in the way processes such as environmental and demographic variation are modelled. Many of these differences reflect what the architects of the programs consider to be the most important factors influencing the viability of metapopulations. These differences mean that the programs may produce different results even for investigations of the same populations. The selection of the most appropriate program should be based on a range of key criteria including: (1) the key question(s) and objectives of the study, and, (2) the strengths, limitations and assumptions that underpin the program and how these match the attributes, life history parameters and available data for the target species. The processes of data assembly, running the programs and reading the accompanying documentation give the user an improved understanding of population behaviour and dynamics. The wide variety of threatened taxa and diversity of conservation problems highlight the value of a broad range of sound, well-developed and relatively error-free packages for simulating metapopulation viability. However, in some cases it may be more appropriate to develop a new program that is tailored specifically to the requirements of a particular management problem.