Judgment and decision making

Decision-making is a cognitive process stemming from the analysis of available courses of action related to a given problem. Rationally, potential courses of action are derived from deliberate analysis of available data related to a problem and its potential outcomes. Decisions are generally characterized as normative, descriptive or naturalistic. Normative decisions are based on evidence, logic and analysis; descriptive decisions are based on intuition and experience. Naturalistic decisions are formed as a hybrid of normative and descriptive processes.

For decision-makers the revolution in information technology and the amount and scope of the data they provide has become overwhelming, leading to cognitive overload, confusion and an inability to function effectively. Decision Support Systems (DSS) facilitate data analysis and selection of a viable course of action rapidly and effectively. However, like the human decision- makers they serve, DSS capabilities may also suffer from cognitive overload, inaccuracy, and complexity, especially in time-sensitive environments.

This study explores DSS employment for time-sensitive decision processes using Digitally Aided Close Air Support (DACAS) as a model. The study explores decision theory, models, DSS development and time-sensitive environments. Using DACAS as a model the paper reveals the obstacles and opportunities associated with the employment of DSS for time- sensitive processes. Finally, the study makes recommendations for improved employment of DSS in time-sensitive environments.

ABSTRACT: This paper serves two purposes: (i) it can be used by students as an introduction to chapters 1-5 of book iii of the NE; (ii) it suggests an answer to the unresolved question what overall objective this section of the NE has. The paper focuses primarily on Aristotle’s theory of what makes us responsible for our actions and character. After some preliminary observations about praise, blame and responsibility (Section 2), it sets out in detail how all the key notions of NE iii 1-5 are interrelated (Sections 3-9). The setting-out of these interconnections makes it then possible to provide a comprehensive interpretation of the purpose of the passage. Its primary purpose is to explain how agents are responsible for their actions not just insofar as they are actions of this kind or that, but also insofar as they are noble or base: agents are responsible for their actions qua noble or base, because, typically via choice, their character dispositions are a causal factor of those actions (Section 10). The paper illustrates the different ways in which agents can be causes of their actions by means of Aristotle’s four basic types of agents (Section 11). A secondary purpose of NE iii 1-5 is to explain how agents can be held responsible for consequences of their actions (Section 12), in particular for their character dispositions insofar as these are noble or base, i.e. virtues or vices (Section 13). These two goals are not the only ones Aristotle pursues in the passage. But they are the ones Aristotle himself indicates in its first sentence and summarizes in its last paragraph; and the ones that give the passage a systematic unity. The paper also briefly consider the issues of freedom-to-do-otherwise, free choice and free-will in the contexts in which they occur (i.e. in the final paragraphs of Sections 6, 7, 12, 13).

Some of Law and Economics’ basic claims have come to be criticized as a result of empirical findings that question their viability. Particularly, the premise that agents consistently act rationally and with their self-interest in mind seems problematic. What the consequences of the criticism mean for Law and Economics’ tenability depends largely on the questions whether (1) some elements are unassailable to the alternative’s objections and (2) the alternative is a systematic whole. It is argued that Law and Economics may be salvaged, if it is minimized and its ambitions are tempered. This means focusing on the stable, a priori, elements inherent to it.

Heurísticas são regras gerais de influência utilizadas pelo decisor para simplificar seus julgamentos em tarefas decisórias de incerteza. Com o intuito de entender as regras heurísticas no julgamento e na tomada de decisão, realiza-se uma revisão teórica, que prioriza as pesquisas de Tversky e Kahneman, englobando as heurísticas de ancoragem, disponibilidade e representatividade.

This paper introduces historical aspects of the concepts correspondence and coherence with emphasis on the nineteenth century when key aspects of modern science were emerging. It is not intended to be a definitive history of the concepts of correspondence and coherence as they have been used across the centuries in the field of inquiry that we now call science. Rather it is a brief history that highlights the apparent origins of the concepts and provides a discussion of how these concepts contributed to two important science related controversies. The first relates to aspects of evolution in which correspondence and coherence, as competing theories of truth, played a central role. The controversy about evolution continues into the beginning of the twenty-first century in forms that are recognizably similar to those of the middle of the nineteenth century. The second controversy relates to the etiology of blood-born infections (sepsis) during childbirth (childbed fever). In addition to correspondence and coherence, the authors introduce other theories of truth and discuss an evolutionarily cogent theory of truth, the pragmatic theory of truth.

Irwin P. Levin 1 Joshua A. Weller, Ashley A. Pederson, and Lyndsay A. Harshman Department of Psychology University of Iowa. ... these changes with functional maturation of the prefrontal cortex, which is presumed to be the latest to functionally mature (Luna & Sweeney, 2001). ...

Cette thèse présente les résultats d'expérimentations visant à mettre en évidence des mécaniques de jeu utiles pour aider le joueur à développer une posture plus réflexive sur la manière dont il prend une décision. Notre approche consiste à mettre le joueur en défaut en exploitant ses biais de raisonnement, permettant dans un second temps de l’amener à mieux cerner ses processus décisionnels. A ce titre, nous cherchons à placer le joueur en excès de confiance dans le cadre spécifique d'un jeu vidéo. Pour mesurer le comportement, le joueur doit utiliser un outil intégré au déroulement de la partie : un système de mise au travers duquel il renseigne sa confiance en ses chances de succès. Deux jeux spécifiques ont été développés en vue de mesurer l’influence des biais sur la confiance du joueur : un se focalise sur l’influence des biais d’ancrage et de confirmation, l’autre sur l’influence du biais de l'effet difficile / facile d’autre part.

Investors, like any decision maker, feel regret when they compare the outcome of an investment with what the outcome would have been had they invested differently. We argue and show that this counterfactual comparison process is most likely to take place when the decision maker's expectations are violated. Across five scenario experiments we found that decision makers were influenced only by forgone investment outcomes when the realized investment fell short of the expected result. However, when their investments exceeded prior expectations, the effect of foregone investment on regret disappeared. In addition, Experiment 4 found that individual differences in the need to maximize further moderated the effects of their expectations, such that maximizers always take into account the forgone investment. The final experiment found that when probed to make counterfactual comparisons, also investments that exceed expectations may lead to regret. Together these experiments reveal insights into the comparative processes leading to decision regret.

The authors investigated whether need for cognitive closure (NFCC) affected one’s style of information search (attribute-based search vs. alternative-based search) in consumer choice. There has been grow- ing interest in NFCC in marketing and its relationship to consumer information processing. However, no study to date has examined the different information search strategies that consumers employ when they (1) possess different levels of NFCC or (2) are exposed to situa- tions that evoke more or less NFCC. Across two studies where Study 1 measured NFCC while Study 2 manipulated NFCC, the authors com- monly found that higher NFCC compared to lower NFCC resulted in (1) a greater preference for the attribute-based search over the alternative-based search and (2) a consideration of a smaller amount of information to make a final choice. Implications for consumer information processing and sales strategies are discussed along with future research directions.

Norms and nudges are both popular types of interventions. Recent years have seen the rise of 'norm-nudges'-nudges whose mechanism of action relies on social norms, eliciting or changing social expectations. Norm-nudges can be powerful interventions, but they can easily fail to be effective and can even backfire unless they are designed with care. We highlight important considerations when designing norm-nudges and discuss a general model of social behavior based on expectations and conditional preferences. We present the results of several experiments where norm-nudging can backfire, and ways to avoid these negative outcomes.

Can numerical anchors influence people's judgments of their own recent behavior? We investigate this question in a series of six studies. In Study 1, subjects' judgments of how many anagrams they were given assimilated to numerical anchors. Subjects' judgments of how many math problems they correctly solved and how many stairs they had just walked up were also influenced by numerical anchors (Studies 2A and 3A), and this occurred even when the anchors were extreme and nonsensical (Studies 2B and 3B). Thus, our first five studies showed that anchors can affect people's judgments of their own recent behavior. Finally, in Study 4, we tested the hypothesis that self-knowledge, despite not eliminating anchoring effects, does still attenuate anchoring. However, we found no evidence that self-knowledge reduced anchoring: subjects' judgments of their own recent behavior and subjects' judgments of other people's recent behavior were equally influenced by anchors. We discuss implications of these findings for research on domain knowledge and anchoring, as well as for research on the malleability of memory.

We explore different contexts and mechanisms that might promote or alleviate the gender effect in risk aversion. Our main result is that we do not find gender differences in risk aversion when the choice is framed as a willingness-to-accept
(WTA) task. When the choice is framed as a willingness-to-pay (WTP) task, men are willing to pay more and thus exhibit lower risk aversion. However, when the choice is framed as a willingness to accept task, women will not accept less than men. These findings imply gender differences in the endowment effect. We also find that the effect size of the gender difference in risk aversion is reduced or eliminated as the context changes from tasks framed as gambles to other domains; and that attitudes toward gambling mediate the gender effect in gambling framed tasks.

Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in information acquisition can predict performance in an estimation task. We focus on actively open-minded thinking (AOT), need for cognition, grit, and the tendency to maximize or satisfice when making decisions. In three studies, participants made estimates and predictions of uncertain quantities, with varying levels of control over the amount of information they could collect before estimating. Only AOT predicted performance. This relationship was mediated by information acquisition: AOT predicted the tendency to collect information, and information acquisition predicted performance. To the extent that available information is predictive of future outcomes, actively open-minded thinkers are more likely than others to make accurate forecasts.

A review of research from organizational behavior supported the guidelines by corporate planners: that is, use an explicit approach for setting objectives, generating strategies, evaluating strategies, monitoring results, and obtaining commitment. To determine whether these findings could be applied to strategic decision making in organizations, a review was made of all published field research on the evaluation of formal planning. Formal planning was superior in 10 of the 15 comparisons drawn from 12 studies, while informal planning was superior in only two comparisons. Although this research did not provide sufficient information on the use of various aspects of the planning process, mild support was provided for having participation by stakeholders. Formal planning tended to be more useful where large changes were involved, but, beyond that, little information was available to suggest when formal planning is most valuable. Future research should assess the formal planning process, the situation in which it is used, and its effects on the total system.

Nostalgic preferences are widespread—people believe past movies, music, television shows, places, and periods of life to have been better than their present counterparts. Three experiments explored the cognitive underpinnings of nostalgic preferences. Participants rated past experiences to have been superior to similar present and recent experiences. These nostalgic preferences appeared to be due to the belief that the atypically
positive experiences that participants recalled at the time of judgment were more representative of their past experiences than of their present experiences.

This paper reviews the current Corona virus situation, then examines the legal definitions of negligence and fiduciary duty in an attempt to determine whether closing a university because of health concerns over the Corona virus might result in legal liability for the university's board members and relevant university administrators.

Adaptive control in the face of uncertainty involves making online predictions about events in order to plan actions to reliably achieve desirable outcomes. However, we often face situations in which the effects of our actions are probabilistic (e.g., returns on our investments), and the environment itself is dynamic, - it can change irrespective of any action we decide to take, and in a relatively stable or unstable way (e.g., economic climate). Therefore, the problem of control concerns learning to isolate the effects that are generated directly by our actions, from those that occur independently of them. We face this problem in a host of uncertain dynamic environments: ecological (using fertilizers to increase crop yield), economic (investing in real estate), industrial (operating nuclear power plants), mechanical (driving cars) and medical (stemming outbreaks of disease). Thus far there has been little attempt at a synthesis of the amassing research directed towards understanding control in the face of uncertainty. The aim of this book is to bring together theoretical and empirical research from disparate disciplines spanning Social, Cognitive and Clinical Psychology, Human Factors and Neuroscience to Engineering and Machine learning. It serves as a round up of the different techniques used to examine issues concerning control (prediction, agency, causality, uncertainty) and unifies a substantial amount of disparate research. The general framework (Monitoring and control- MC framework) used to achieve this proposes two central ideas (agency, uncertainty) that have important ramifications across disciplines. In sum, control processes involve self-regulatory mechanisms that enable us to make subjective estimates of success, which helps to anchor our interpretation of uncertain events. In addition, these estimates are integrated with estimations of rates of change of the events in the environment which helps us track the outcomes we aim to control.

Labeling a food as "organic" entails a claim about its production but is silent on its calorie content. Nevertheless, people infer that organic cookies are lower in calories and can be eaten more often than conventional cookies (Study 1). These inferences are observed even when the nutrition label conveys identical calorie content and are more pronounced among perceivers high on pro-environmentalism. Moreover, when evaluating a person with a weight-loss goal, forgoing exercise is deemed more acceptable when the person has just chosen organic rather than conventional dessert (Study 2). These results reflect an "organic/natural"-"healthy" association that is capable of biasing everyday judgments about diet and exercise.

The order in which evidence is presented to a criminal court might influence the verdict. This study investigated the serial position effect in a judicial context. 1831 Swiss criminal judges received a filmed mock trial with a specific order stemming from the combination of 3 witnesses: a forensic expert, an eyewitness and an alibi witness. The evidence order was completely counterbalanced and each witness represented a different type of testimony chosen in accordance with the legal practice. If judges rendered their verdict on the basis of the first witness, a primacy effect would be observed. Conversely, if the last testimony would be preponderant, a recency effect would influence their judgment. Results showed a recency effect based on a defence eyewitness whose placement in the last position provoked significantly less condemnations. Furthermore, the probative value estimated by the judges for each piece of evidence was not associated with its serial impact. Results are discussed in relation to legal decision-making and the identification of a central witness mediating order effects.

This survey article (in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy) offers an introduction to the field of social choice theory. It covers: (i) the history of social choice theory; (ii) three formal arguments for majority rule (procedural, epistemic, and utilitarian); (iii) preference aggregation; (iv) welfare aggregation; (v) judgment aggregation; and (vi) other topics.
Available at: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/social-choice/

Consumer research has documented dozens of instances in which the introduction of an “irrelevant” third option affects preferences between the remaining two. In nearly all such cases, the unattractive dominated option enhances the attractiveness of the option it most resembles – a phenomenon known as the "attraction effect." In the studies presented here, however, we contend that this phenomenon may be restricted to stylized product representations in which every product dimension is represented by a number (e.g., a toaster oven that has a durability of 7.2 and ease of cleaning of 5.5). Such effects do not typically obtain when consumers experience the product (e.g., taste a drink) or when even one of the product attributes is represented perceptually (e.g., differently priced hotel rooms whose quality is depicted with a photo). We posit that perceptual representations of attributes do not support the sorts of comparisons that drive the effect with highly stylized examples, and we question the practical significance of the effect.

Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in information acquisition can predict performance in an estimation task. We focus on actively open-minded thinking (AOT), need for cognition, grit, and the tendency to maximize or satisfice when making decisions. In three studies, participants made estimates and predictions of uncertain quantities, with varying levels of control over the amount of information they could collect before estimating. Only AOT predicted performance. This relationship was mediated by information acquisition: AOT predicted the tendency to collect information, and information acquisition predicted performance. To the extent that available information is predictive of future outcomes, actively open-minded thinkers are more likely than others to make accurate forecasts.

This paper introduces issues about a methodology for the design of serious games that help players/learners understand their decisionmaking process. First, we discuss the development of a video game system based on a switching-role mechanic where the player becomes the game leader of the experience. Then, we introduce game mechanics designed to induce a specific behavior, overconfidence, that helps to understand the players' decision-making processes. Finally, we describe tools for measuring the players' self-reflection regarding their judgment process.

Much can be learned from a comparative analysis of the different corporate governance practices of Canada and the People’s Republic of China, specifically with respect to the duties of directors in overseeing registered corporations. This paper examines the fiduciary duties of directors expressed in statutory instruments in Canada and China. Analyses herein incorporate statutes and corporate law, secondary literature, newspaper commentary, and select jurisprudence, to help elucidate the similarities and differences between the two countries’ regulatory frameworks, from the perspective of corporate governance and responsible business decision-making.

This study of collaboration among a multidisciplinary team of healthcare workers demonstrates that elements intrinsic to the interaction constitute a delicate ecosystem. As the balance between actors, digital media and paper artefacts fluctuates, so too the nature of the interaction and collaboration changes. Intrinsic to the multidisciplinary team (MDT) ecosystem is specialist knowledge, radiological images, pathology samples, together with the interpretation of the patient's findings, as well as the roles and responsibilities of the active participants and observer collaborators.

Intelligence analysis is a decision-making process rife with ambiguous, conflicting, irrelevant, important, and excessive information. The U.S. Intelligence Community is primed for psychology to lend its voice to the "analytic transformation" movement aimed at improving the quality of intelligence analysis. Traditional judgment and decision making research serves as a starting point, though recent developments in decision science advance additional relevant perspectives that are critical to improving intelligence analysis. Naturalistic decision making offers insights into the challenging information world of intelligence analysis and expert judgment. Research on group decision making shows that group processes are often dependent on the distribution of information within the group, while information foraging theory suggests that intelligence analysts may be viewed as "informavores" who use adaptive strategies to form key judgments efficiently. Psychologists should capitalize on these advances in research and theory to engage the intelligence community on its own grounds and take the lead on intelligence analytic reform. A potential research agenda and recommendations to optimize intelligence community effectiveness are offered.

This research examined the full range of tasks and activities that design engineers perform, how their working time is distributed among these, and how these issues influence their satisfaction with their work. Seventy-eight design engineers each carried a personal digital assistant (PDA) for twenty working days. Once every hour, they entered data into their PDAs concerning their current work tasks and satisfaction levels, using a work sampling approach. Work tasks were explored from multiple perspectives, yielding highly extensive and detailed results. A key finding was that design engineers' work involves considerable technical engineering work (62.92% of time) and socially collaborative work (40.37% of time). The results were discussed in terms of their implications for academic theory and organizational practice.

È opinione comune, presso gli studiosi moderni, che i giudici privati del processo civile romano (giudici monocratici o recuperatores) appartenessero alle classi sociali più elevate e più colte e che mantenessero, nel ricoprire il loro incarico, un atteggiamento di grande dignità. Questo dato appare in effetti confermato se si considerano tutti i giudici privati, dei quali le testimonianze antiche hanno tramandato l’identità. Ci sono tuttavia significative fonti letterarie, che presentano indizi dai quali è lecito sospettare, di fatto, l’esistenza di una seconda ‘categoria’ di giudici privati, costituita da persone di bassa estrazione sociale, che mantenevano spesso, nell'esercizio della funzione, comportamenti tutt’altro che incensurabili. I giudici di questo secondo gruppo erano, nella maggior parte dei casi, probabilmente quelli scelti al di fuori dell’album iudicum. Dall’indagine è risultato anche che, sebbene le due categorie di giudici fossero per molti aspetti differenziate tra loro, esse erano tuttavia assimilate per un importante carattere comune: l’imperitia iuris dei giudicanti, che si trova a più riprese lamentata dalle fonti antiche.

The adoption of systems-focused risk assessment techniques has not led to measurable improvement in the rate of patient harm. Why? In part, because these tools focus solely on understanding problems, and provide no direct support for designing and managing solutions (i.e., risk control). This second installment of a 2-part series on rebalancing risk management describes a structured approach to bridging this gap: The Active Risk Control (ARC) Toolkit. A pilot study is presented to show how ARC Toolkit can improve the quality of risk management practice.

I propose that the ego functions and functional attitudes each possess different relationships to time. Each function-attitude pair has its own way of experiencing or analyzing time, depending on whether it is a perceiving or judging function. This essay explores the idea of different ways of experiencing time -- being past-oriented, present-oriented, or future-oriented -- as well as whether one is more focused towards external reality or psychic inner space.

The psychological phenomenon of mindfulness-a nonjudgmental attention to and awareness of one's present experience-has been linked to effective coping with a range of situational stressors such as the transition to college, romantic relationships, and cancer. However, the potential mediating role of problem-focused coping strategies in predicting these outcomes has not been sufficiently addressed. In the current study we rectified this void in the literature by testing several problem-focused mechanisms for mindfulness's relationship with situational stress coping in college undergraduates affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic. Using a correlational design, we tested whether: (1) dispositional mindfulness would predict less stress, less negative affect, and greater positive affect in the face of stressors manifested by the COVID-19 pandemic and (2) several problem-focused coping strategies would mediate the zero-order relationships between mindfulness and these criterion variables. We collected self-reports of all study variables from college students enrolled in the principal investigator's undergraduate psychology courses via an online questionnaire. Results supported the expected associations between mindfulness and each of the well-being variables and partially supported the mediational hypotheses, with two out of the proposed five problem-focused strategies serving as statistically significant mediators. These results suggest that in addition to the primarily cognition-based mechanisms examined in previous research, mindfulness may also confer resistance to negative emotional states through adaptive behavior-based coping strategies.

At the heart of this electoral case lies deep questions about what it means exactly to ‘know’ something and about a few steps that judges should avoid when reasoning from unknowns. In short, the court refused to cancel a presidential election because those who challenged that election in court failed to prove that the absence of verifiable paper trail changed the outcome of the election. If a judge lacks evidence of any claim put forth by the parties, they cannot lean on the absence of evidence to arrive at any conclusion, except to conclude that they do not know whether the claim conveys the truth. Likewise, if an election body cannot verify the votes, a judge cannot maintain that people should trust that election or those votes. Another way of saying that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

So how should the Supreme Court have handled the absence of paper trail in the Itula case? The court rejected the applicants’ request that the court invalidate the election, but jurists will discover that this rejection defies logic and science itself. And this commentary shows how.

Conste por el presente documento una transacción extrajudicial que celebran de una parte: _____________________________, con domicilio en Sector 6 Grupo 7 Mz. F Lote 18, distrito de Villa el Salvador, provincia y departamento de Lima; a quien en lo sucesivo se le denominara "TRABAJADOR"; De la otra parte •_____________________, con domicilio en av. Franklin Roosevelt 798, distrito de Santiago de Surco, provincia y distrito de Lima; a quien en lo sucesivo se le denominará "EMPLEADOR". A ambas partes se les denominara en forma conjunta como "Las Partes", Mediante el presente instrumento, las partes suscribientes, haciéndose concesiones reciprocas. Extinguen obligaciones pendientes, con sujeción a las siguientes cláusulas y condiciones: ANTECEDENTES PRIMERO: las partes declaran que el TRABAJADOR ha prestado sus servicios como obrero al EMPLEADOR, desde enero de 1998 hasta el 28 de mayo de 2019, concluyendo la relación laboral por renuncia voluntaria del TRABAJADOR. OBJETO DE LA TRANSACCION: SEGUNDO: Por este acuerdo transaccional, las partes, de manera voluntaria, haciéndose concesiones recíprocas, y a fin de transigir sobre cualquier suma de dinero que correspondiera al TRABAJADOR, derivado del contrato de trabajo y en aras de prevenir o evitar reclamos futuros entre las partes, convienen en solucionar el pago de los beneficios sociales surgida a raíz de la conclusión de la relación laboral mantenida por ambos. CONTENIDO Y CONDICIONES DE LA TRANSACCIÓN-ACUERDOS Y OBLIGACIONES

This article examines five common misunderstandings about case-study research: (a) theoretical knowledge is more valuable than practical knowledge; (b) one cannot generalize from a single case, therefore, the single-case study cannot contribute to scientific development; (c) the case study is most useful for generating hypotheses, whereas other methods are more suitable for hypotheses testing and theory building; (d) the case study contains a bias toward verification; and (e) it is often difficult to summarize specific case studies. This article explains and corrects these misunderstandings one by one and concludes with the Kuhnian insight that a scientific discipline without a large number of thoroughly executed case studies is a discipline without systematic production of exemplars, and a discipline without exemplars is an ineffective one. Social science may be strengthened by the execution of a greater number of good case studies.