Integrated Assessment Modeling

For illustrating the introduced changes and for the purpose of comparison, the 5 scenarios simulated in Capellán-Pérez et al (2014a) with WoLiM 1.0 are re-run. Finally, the main limitations and further developments of the model are reported. Limits Model (WoLiM) 1.5 -Model Documentation.

In the more than two decades since the first international climate negotiations, many thinkers and actors have identified a divisive rift between ambitious language and binding agreements, between expertise and activism, information and engagement, abstract scientific knowledge and actionable policy agendas—in short, a gap between climate science and climate action. This thesis takes this observation as a starting point to ask what constitutes “science,” and what is meant by “action” in the realms of climate change research and activism. Moreover, what worlds of possibility are implicit in these understandings? What new conceptions of the human, the Earth and human-Earth relations does the gap between climate science and action produce? Calling into question how climate change challenges and exceeds conventional technical and conceptual frameworks, this thesis is an exploration of the anthropological stakes of climate change. One part literature-based research and another part fieldwork-based research, it takes as its concrete ethnographic object three programs of research in North America whose work situates them within the emergent and mercurial gap between climate science and climate action: the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC), the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy model project (DICE) and the Economics for the Anthropocene project (E4A). Located in the murky intermediate domain between scientific and managerial knowledge, these researchers are mid-range climate change problem solvers, who thrive among the assemblages of people, processes, tools, objects and events through which climate change knowledge is made actionable. Investigating the practical and conceptual details that make up their engagements with science, technology, policy and the public, this thesis examines how each project produces the very possibilities for politics and activism, human being and belonging, in an era of a changing global climate.

This report has various objectives: (i) to provide an overview of the climate Integrated Assessment approach; (ii) to describe the Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM); (iii) to outline the new IPCC scenario framework represented by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); and (iv) to document the implementation of the new scenario framework in version 3.1 of the GCAM. The GCAM baseline is thus calibrated to the “Middle of the Road” or SSP2 scenario using the data calculated by the OECD. The implications of this scenario are important because it will probably become a standard scenario among the research community. The exogenous variables, the implications for income convergence and the results in terms of energy mix, emissions, temperature and radiative forcing of SSP2 implementation in the GCAM are presented at both global and regional levels. These results are also compared with the GCAM-Reference baseline and the IPCC SRES representative scenarios. Then the feasibility, cost and implications of a climate policy that seeks to stabilize temperature at 2ºC (2.6 W/m2 RCP) using a global uniform carbon tax are analyzed. The study is completed by a decomposition analysis that enables the main driving factors of CO2 variation to be identified, including population, affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity and fossil-fuel share of the energy mix. Finally we draw some conclusions and highlight points for further research.

This report has various objectives: (i) to provide an overview of the climate Integrated Assessment approach; (ii) to describe the Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM); (iii) to outline the new IPCC scenario framework represented by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); and (iv) to document the implementation of the new scenario framework in version 3.1 of the GCAM. The GCAM baseline is thus calibrated to the "Middle of the Road" or SSP2 scenario using the data calculated by the OECD. The implications of this scenario are important because it will probably become a standard scenario among the research community. The exogenous variables, the implications for income convergence and the results in terms of energy mix, emissions, temperature and radiative forcing of SSP2 implementation in the GCAM are presented at both global and regional levels. These results are also compared with the GCAM-Reference baseline and the IPCC SRES representative scenarios. Then the feasibility, cost and implications of a climate policy that seeks to stabilize temperature at 2ºC (2.6 W/m 2 RCP) using a global uniform carbon tax are analyzed. The study is completed by a decomposition analysis that enables the main driving factors of CO 2 variation to be identified, including population, affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity and fossil-fuel share of the energy mix. Finally we draw some conclusions and highlight points for further research.

This report has various objectives: (i) to provide an overview of the climate Integrated Assessment approach; (ii) to describe the Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM); (iii) to outline the new IPCC scenario framework represented by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); and (iv) to document the implementation of the new scenario framework in version 3.1 of the GCAM. The GCAM baseline is thus calibrated to the “Middle of the Road†or SSP2 scenario using the data calculated by the OECD. The implications of this scenario are important because it will probably become a standard scenario among the research community. The exogenous variables, the implications for income convergence and the results in terms of energy mix, emissions, temperature and radiative forcing of SSP2 implementation in the GCAM are presented at both global and regional levels. These results are also compared with the GCAM-Reference baseline and the IPCC S...

Despite a general improvement expected for the next decade in EU, some urban areas and some regions will still struggle with severe air quality problems and related health effects. These areas are often characterized by specific environmental and anthropogenic factors and will require ad hoc additional local actions to complement medium and long-term national and EU-wide strategies to reach EU air quality objectives. These urban areas are also among the territories where most energy is consumed and most greenhouse gases (GHGs) are emitted. So far, abatement strategies for air pollution and GHGs have mostly been treated separately. However, increasing scientific evidence shows that air pollution and climate change policies must be integrated to achieve sustainable development and a low carbon (LC) society. Combined efforts to deal with air pollution and climate issues at the urban level will be particularly important because here is where most people are exposed to air pollution, and 75 % of global GHG emissions are generated (Schmale et al. 2014; UNEP and WMO 2011). Urban air pollution and climate change simultaneously posing a serious threat to citizen longevity and quality of life: reducing and mitigating the corresponding impacts is vital. Such integration may exploit known synergies and would lead to substantial cost savings and important benefits for human health and the environment. A widespread application of classical end-of-pipe measures, such as various types of filters and catalysts, may provide only a moderate improvement to the air quality in cities and regions and will not reduce their GHG emissions. Until now, however, the modelling and analysis underpinning the development of abatement strategies in the EU and in the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) has focussed on technical measures. In the future, non-technical mea

We investigate the stability of International Environmental Agreements (IEA) by applying game theory. The paper extends further our previous research on farsightedly stable coalitions and preferred farsightedly stable coalitions (Osmani & Tol 2009). The integrated assessment model FUND provides the cost-benefit payoff functions of pollution abatement for sixteen different world regions. The stability concept of D’Aspremont et al. (1983) and farsighted sta-bility of Chwe (1994) are compared. D’Aspremont stability assumes that players are myopic while farsighted stability assumes perfect foresight of the players and predicts which coalitions can be formed when players are farsighted. The D’Aspremont stable coalitions are frequently subsets of farsightedly stable coalitions. Furthermore, farsightedly stable coalitions can be frequently the largest size stable coalition, that game theory without side payments can reach. Additionally, they bring always the biggest improvement in environm...

Despite a general improvement expected for the next decade in EU, some urban areas and some regions will still struggle with severe air quality problems and related health effects. These areas are often characterized by specific environmental and anthropogenic factors and will require ad hoc additional local actions to complement medium and long-term national and EU-wide strategies to reach EU air quality objectives. These urban areas are also among the territories where most energy is consumed and most greenhouse gases (GHGs) are emitted. So far, abatement strategies for air pollution and GHGs have mostly been treated separately. However, increasing scientific evidence shows that air pollution and climate change policies must be integrated to achieve sustainable development and a low carbon (LC) society. Combined efforts to deal with air pollution and climate issues at the urban level will be particularly important because here is where most people are exposed to air pollution, and...

We study optimal climate policy in the presence of climate tipping points and solar geo-engineering. Solar geoengineering reduces temperatures without reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate tipping points are irreversible and uncertain events that can alter the dynamics of the climate system. We analyze three different rules related to the availability of solar geoengineering, and we model three distinct types of tipping points. Before reaching the tipping point, the introduction of solar geoengineering reduces the amount of mitigation, lowers temperatures and increases carbon concentrations. The capacity of solar geoengineering to deal with climate damages depends on the type of tipping point. Solar geoengineering is most effective at dealing with tipping points that affect the responsiveness of temperature to carbon, and it is least effective at dealing with tipping points that cause direct economic losses.

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) treat the global climate and the global economy as two coupled parts of a single hybrid system, and can be used to construct policy portfolios that reflect a wide variety of social and scientific values and priorities.  However, there is a high degree of uncertainty endemic to both climatological and economic models, which is inherited by IAMs.  In addition, the decision of which models to use, how to prioritize future outcomes, and how to delineate relevantly similar states of the hybrid system are deeply value-laden and perspectival choices, complicating the task of constructing policies based on IAMs.  In this paper, we examine the conceptual and technical challenges associated with IAM-based policy and argue that the best way to meet these challenges is to use IAMs to construct policies that maximize the range of future policy options available, rather than to pursue specific outcomes.  By optimizing our policy choice to produce a maximally wide range of future choice, we both mitigate the practical impact of structural model uncertainty and minimize the extent to which individual evaluative choices are irreversibly enshrined in policy decisions.  This approach greatly enhances the potential utility of IAMs, and has concrete, specific implications for climate policy deliberations.

We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the "no climate policy" scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m 2 and 3.7 W/m 2 by 2100 are provided. They can be used for a broader climate impact assessment for the US and other regions, with the goal of making it possible to provide a more consistent picture of climate impacts, and how those impacts depend on uncertainty in climate system response and policy choices. The long-term risks, beyond 2050, of climate change can be strongly influenced by policy choices. In the nearer term, the climate we will observe is hard to influence with policy, and what we actually see will be strongly influenced by natural variability and the earth system response to existing greenhouse gases. In the end, the nature of the system is that a strong effect of policy, especially directed toward long-lived GHGs, will lag by 30 to 40 years its implementation.

We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the "no climate policy" scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m 2 and 3.7 W/m 2 by 2100 are provided. They can be used for a broader climate impact assessment for the US and other regions, with the goal of making it possible to provide a more consistent picture of climate impacts, and how those impacts depend on uncertainty in climate system response and policy choices. The long-term risks, beyond 2050, of climate change can be strongly influenced by policy choices. In the nearer term, the climate we will observe is hard to influence with policy, and what we actually see will be strongly influenced by natural variability and the earth system response to existing greenhouse gases. In the end, the nature of the system is that a strong effect of policy, especially directed toward long-lived GHGs, will lag by 30 to 40 years its implementation.