A reliable, efficient and cheap transportation system is essential to social development and econ... more A reliable, efficient and cheap transportation system is essential to social development and economic growth. The rapidly increasing worldwide demand to move people and goods is outpacing the available transportation infrastructure, including road and public transportation networks. The projected deficit will be felt most acutely in developing countries, where personal travel is expected to grow several-fold between 2000 and 2050, driven primarily by rising incomes that lead to higher rates of vehicle ownership and greater demand for recreational travel. Freight transport will also increase owing to greater industrialization and globalization, which stimulate regional and international shipment of goods and materials, as well as food trading. The result of increasing transport demand is contributing to an increase in congestion, traffic injuries and fatalities and increasing dependence on petroleum. Furthermore, transport emissions are contributing to climate change and air pollution, especially degradation of air quality in urban areas due to increasing concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Both of these pollutants have an adverse impact on human health. According to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, air pollution is responsible annually for 3.2 million deaths from exposure to PM2.5 and 0.15 million deaths from exposure to O3; traffic-related injuries contribute 1.4 million fatalities per year. The transportation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for around one-quarter (≈7 GtCO2) of present day annual releases, 75% of which come from road transportation. CO2 accounts for the bulk of GHG emissions, with less than 3% for CH4 and N2O and 5% to 10% for F-gases. Reduction of transportation emissions, which include vehicle lifecycle emissions from use, construction, delivery, dismantling and recycling as well as fuel lifecycle emissions from extraction, preparation and delivery, has proven to be a difficult task. For traditional petroleum-based fuels, tailpipe CO2 emissions typically account for about 80% of the total lifecycle inventory. Emission limits of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), CO, VOC and NOx (ozone precursors) are established by emission standards. Exhaust control technology is only part of the solution, though; consumer behaviour and choices also impact the success rate and outcome of public policy efforts to reduce traffic emissions. World transportation energy use is expected to grow 1.75% annually between 2000 and 2050, with rates two to three times higher in rapidly developing countries (Fig. 1). For Western Europe, the growth in energy demand is expected to be much slower (around 20% to 25% the global rate) because of projected low population growth, improvements in vehicle efficiency, and high fuel taxes. Assuming governments will not implement any new climate policies in the future, transport-related carbon emissions are projected to double by 2050 relative to 2010 levels (Fig. 1). Major reductions could be achieved by switching to public transportation or privately operated minibus jitneys in urban areas and switching to less polluting fuels and technologies, such as advanced biofuels and electric drivetrains. Improving energy efficiency can also deliver carbon reductions. Material substitution and advanced design that lowers airflow drag coefficient could improve light-duty vehicle (LDV) fuel efficiency by 12% to 18%. Another 5% to 20% improvement could be achieved through a variety of vehicle operating efficiencies, such as carpooling, increased vehicle inspections, improved maintenance and better traffic route choice. Carbon emissions decrease with decreasing fuel carbon content, and for this reason biofuels have been proposed as alternative low carbon fuels to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Issues concerning land competition for food production, for animal grazing and for other uses, and additional carbon releases from land use change (LUC) have, however, raised legitimate concerns about the long-term sustainability of the present generation of biofuels, effects on crop prices, impact on energy security (biofuel feedstocks are often imported from outside Europe) and net effect on lifecycle carbon emissions. LUC values can be large,
This paper sets out to explore to what extent integrating employment effects, equity, and risk av... more This paper sets out to explore to what extent integrating employment effects, equity, and risk aversion within cost–benefit analysis (CBA) affect the economic appraisal of a climate change adaptation project designed to protect against flood risk in a region of Bilbao (Basque Country, Spain). Four CBAs are conducted: (i) a standard CBA; (ii) a standard CBA considering equity; (iii) a standard CBA considering equity and employment; and (iv) a standard CBA considering equity, employment and risk aversion. All CBAs are conducted using a time frame of 2014–2080 and considering a 100-year return period under a middle of the road emission scenario (RCP4.5). A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken. Results suggest that the economic efficiency of the adaptation investment is contingent on what types of considerations are included within CBA. Integrating elements of employment, equity and risk aversion can strengthen or weaken the case for action (leading to higher or lower net-present val...
Introduction: As one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and the world’s... more Introduction: As one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and the world’s third largest economy, Europe is a key stakeholder in the world’s response to climate change and has a global responsibility and opportunity to transition towards a low-carbon economy for healthier, more resilient societies with clean air and liveable cities. The Lancet Countdown in Europe is the first comprehensive assessment that monitors health and climate change over space and time in Europe reporting on 33 indicators focusing on (section 1) impact, exposure, and vulnerability; (section 2) adaption, planning and resilience; (section 3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (section 4) economics and finance; and (section 5) politics and governance. Results: Health risks (section 1) for almost all indicators tracked have been increasing. Illustratively, clinically relevant pollen seasons are starting 10-20 days earlier each year (1981-2020), the climatic suitability for water-bo...
The main pillars of climate policy are adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. The primar... more The main pillars of climate policy are adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. The primary objective of adaptation policies—in turn—is to make adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems that prevent adverse impacts (like losses in agricultural yields) of climate change or take advantage of this change (like using an ice-free Northwest Passage, providing a shipping shortcut between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans). In the case of policies to mitigate climate change, the primary aim is basically climate protection by reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases.
Last December 2015, during the twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP 21) held in Paris, the... more Last December 2015, during the twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP 21) held in Paris, the Parties under the UNFCCC succeeded in reaching the so called Paris Agreement. Given the voluntarily approach adopted, the assessment of the vulnerability of a country to climate change is essential to define action strategies both at national and international levels. Moreover, an active role of Non-Annex I countries in mitigation actions is essential to limit the increase in temperature at 2°C. Thus, the main challenge for the forthcoming years is to persuade developing countries to mitigate. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in costs and benefits related to climate actions, there is need to set out compensating schemes for the most vulnerable countries in order to reach a successful agreement. So far, the main compensating measure under the current climate regime is the Green Climate Fund (GCF). According to this negotiation framework, this p...
The paper develops a methodological approach to gather information on the role played by climate ... more The paper develops a methodological approach to gather information on the role played by climate change in influencing armed conflicts in Africa. It builds a database to comprehensively map and analyse African countries through a geo-referenced representation of the climate, conflicts and socio- economic characteristics in a local rather than a country level analysis (110×110 km grid cells) over almost three decades, from 1990 to 2016. During this period, the African continent has been characterized by a high number of conflicts. The paper analyses the role played by climate change in affecting the conflicts dynamics, the risk of onset and magnitude, both in terms of number of registered events and fatalities. At the same time, as largely recognised in literature there are several other aspects that could aggravate (or offset) the local conditions, eventually degenerating in armed conflicts. Hence, the analysis also explores factors such as GDP, population, land use, water stress, n...
Chapter 7 Case Studies for Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mauritius and Thailand Kirsten Halsnaes, Anil Mark... more Chapter 7 Case Studies for Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mauritius and Thailand Kirsten Halsnaes, Anil Markandya and Tim Taylor Introduction So far, the discussion in this book has focused on the methods of assessment of climate change mitigation projects and on the need for ...
A reliable, efficient and cheap transportation system is essential to social development and econ... more A reliable, efficient and cheap transportation system is essential to social development and economic growth. The rapidly increasing worldwide demand to move people and goods is outpacing the available transportation infrastructure, including road and public transportation networks. The projected deficit will be felt most acutely in developing countries, where personal travel is expected to grow several-fold between 2000 and 2050, driven primarily by rising incomes that lead to higher rates of vehicle ownership and greater demand for recreational travel. Freight transport will also increase owing to greater industrialization and globalization, which stimulate regional and international shipment of goods and materials, as well as food trading. The result of increasing transport demand is contributing to an increase in congestion, traffic injuries and fatalities and increasing dependence on petroleum. Furthermore, transport emissions are contributing to climate change and air pollution, especially degradation of air quality in urban areas due to increasing concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Both of these pollutants have an adverse impact on human health. According to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, air pollution is responsible annually for 3.2 million deaths from exposure to PM2.5 and 0.15 million deaths from exposure to O3; traffic-related injuries contribute 1.4 million fatalities per year. The transportation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for around one-quarter (≈7 GtCO2) of present day annual releases, 75% of which come from road transportation. CO2 accounts for the bulk of GHG emissions, with less than 3% for CH4 and N2O and 5% to 10% for F-gases. Reduction of transportation emissions, which include vehicle lifecycle emissions from use, construction, delivery, dismantling and recycling as well as fuel lifecycle emissions from extraction, preparation and delivery, has proven to be a difficult task. For traditional petroleum-based fuels, tailpipe CO2 emissions typically account for about 80% of the total lifecycle inventory. Emission limits of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), CO, VOC and NOx (ozone precursors) are established by emission standards. Exhaust control technology is only part of the solution, though; consumer behaviour and choices also impact the success rate and outcome of public policy efforts to reduce traffic emissions. World transportation energy use is expected to grow 1.75% annually between 2000 and 2050, with rates two to three times higher in rapidly developing countries (Fig. 1). For Western Europe, the growth in energy demand is expected to be much slower (around 20% to 25% the global rate) because of projected low population growth, improvements in vehicle efficiency, and high fuel taxes. Assuming governments will not implement any new climate policies in the future, transport-related carbon emissions are projected to double by 2050 relative to 2010 levels (Fig. 1). Major reductions could be achieved by switching to public transportation or privately operated minibus jitneys in urban areas and switching to less polluting fuels and technologies, such as advanced biofuels and electric drivetrains. Improving energy efficiency can also deliver carbon reductions. Material substitution and advanced design that lowers airflow drag coefficient could improve light-duty vehicle (LDV) fuel efficiency by 12% to 18%. Another 5% to 20% improvement could be achieved through a variety of vehicle operating efficiencies, such as carpooling, increased vehicle inspections, improved maintenance and better traffic route choice. Carbon emissions decrease with decreasing fuel carbon content, and for this reason biofuels have been proposed as alternative low carbon fuels to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Issues concerning land competition for food production, for animal grazing and for other uses, and additional carbon releases from land use change (LUC) have, however, raised legitimate concerns about the long-term sustainability of the present generation of biofuels, effects on crop prices, impact on energy security (biofuel feedstocks are often imported from outside Europe) and net effect on lifecycle carbon emissions. LUC values can be large,
This paper sets out to explore to what extent integrating employment effects, equity, and risk av... more This paper sets out to explore to what extent integrating employment effects, equity, and risk aversion within cost–benefit analysis (CBA) affect the economic appraisal of a climate change adaptation project designed to protect against flood risk in a region of Bilbao (Basque Country, Spain). Four CBAs are conducted: (i) a standard CBA; (ii) a standard CBA considering equity; (iii) a standard CBA considering equity and employment; and (iv) a standard CBA considering equity, employment and risk aversion. All CBAs are conducted using a time frame of 2014–2080 and considering a 100-year return period under a middle of the road emission scenario (RCP4.5). A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken. Results suggest that the economic efficiency of the adaptation investment is contingent on what types of considerations are included within CBA. Integrating elements of employment, equity and risk aversion can strengthen or weaken the case for action (leading to higher or lower net-present val...
Introduction: As one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and the world’s... more Introduction: As one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and the world’s third largest economy, Europe is a key stakeholder in the world’s response to climate change and has a global responsibility and opportunity to transition towards a low-carbon economy for healthier, more resilient societies with clean air and liveable cities. The Lancet Countdown in Europe is the first comprehensive assessment that monitors health and climate change over space and time in Europe reporting on 33 indicators focusing on (section 1) impact, exposure, and vulnerability; (section 2) adaption, planning and resilience; (section 3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (section 4) economics and finance; and (section 5) politics and governance. Results: Health risks (section 1) for almost all indicators tracked have been increasing. Illustratively, clinically relevant pollen seasons are starting 10-20 days earlier each year (1981-2020), the climatic suitability for water-bo...
The main pillars of climate policy are adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. The primar... more The main pillars of climate policy are adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. The primary objective of adaptation policies—in turn—is to make adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems that prevent adverse impacts (like losses in agricultural yields) of climate change or take advantage of this change (like using an ice-free Northwest Passage, providing a shipping shortcut between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans). In the case of policies to mitigate climate change, the primary aim is basically climate protection by reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases.
Last December 2015, during the twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP 21) held in Paris, the... more Last December 2015, during the twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP 21) held in Paris, the Parties under the UNFCCC succeeded in reaching the so called Paris Agreement. Given the voluntarily approach adopted, the assessment of the vulnerability of a country to climate change is essential to define action strategies both at national and international levels. Moreover, an active role of Non-Annex I countries in mitigation actions is essential to limit the increase in temperature at 2°C. Thus, the main challenge for the forthcoming years is to persuade developing countries to mitigate. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in costs and benefits related to climate actions, there is need to set out compensating schemes for the most vulnerable countries in order to reach a successful agreement. So far, the main compensating measure under the current climate regime is the Green Climate Fund (GCF). According to this negotiation framework, this p...
The paper develops a methodological approach to gather information on the role played by climate ... more The paper develops a methodological approach to gather information on the role played by climate change in influencing armed conflicts in Africa. It builds a database to comprehensively map and analyse African countries through a geo-referenced representation of the climate, conflicts and socio- economic characteristics in a local rather than a country level analysis (110×110 km grid cells) over almost three decades, from 1990 to 2016. During this period, the African continent has been characterized by a high number of conflicts. The paper analyses the role played by climate change in affecting the conflicts dynamics, the risk of onset and magnitude, both in terms of number of registered events and fatalities. At the same time, as largely recognised in literature there are several other aspects that could aggravate (or offset) the local conditions, eventually degenerating in armed conflicts. Hence, the analysis also explores factors such as GDP, population, land use, water stress, n...
Chapter 7 Case Studies for Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mauritius and Thailand Kirsten Halsnaes, Anil Mark... more Chapter 7 Case Studies for Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mauritius and Thailand Kirsten Halsnaes, Anil Markandya and Tim Taylor Introduction So far, the discussion in this book has focused on the methods of assessment of climate change mitigation projects and on the need for ...
The paper presents findings of the study on economic and environmental benefits switching from fo... more The paper presents findings of the study on economic and environmental benefits switching from fossil fuels to biofuels in Russia. The focus is made on the North-Western province of Velikii Novgorod, with a huge potential for utilization of wood waste and low grade wood for energy purposes, as a substitute for coal and gas. The economic, carbon and air pollution reduction benefits are analyzed.
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