Economic Loss

A number of races for loose smut disease of wheat, caused by Ustilago tritici, exist in western Canada, which causes significant economic losses on both durum (Triticum turgidum var. durum) and bread wheats (T. aestivum). The genetic relationships of molecular variability and virulence pattern among these races is unknown. A total of 85 isolates of 19 races of Ustilago tritici collected from durum and bread wheat were studied using molecular and virulence data. Eleven EcoRI and MseI primer-pair combinations were used for an amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis, and a total of 52 polymorphic fragments were generated. Virulence data from the wheat loose smut differential set were used for cluster analysis using the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic averages method. Cluster analysis from molecular and virulence data showed that races collected from durum wheat cultivars were grouped separately from those races collected from bread wheat. Most races were virulent only on either bread wheat or durum wheat, but race T39 has complex virulence and can infect both species. The study revealed that molecular diversity in U. tritici can be associated with virulence patterns. Further, grouping of races based on molecular data suggested that new races emerge from existing races by recombining virulence.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between seropositivity for the most frequent Leptospira serovars and reproductive losses in sows in Brazil. Serum samples from 351 sows from 18 herds (in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) with low reproductive efficiency were tested (microscopic agglutination) for antibodies against serovars of Leptospira. Antibodies were detected in serum samples of 66.1% of all sows, most frequently serovar icterohaemorrhagiae (43.1%), followed by pomona (18.1%) and tarassovi (9.9%). Seroreactivity to icterohaemorrhagiae and pomona were associated (P < 0.05) with impaired reproductive performance (and substantial economic loss). Seroreactivity for pomona was associated (P < 0.05) with stillborn piglets and mummified fetuses, whereas seroreactivity to icterohaemorrhagiae was associated (P < 0.05) with the number of piglets born dead. #

Farmers in Tanzania consider rodents to be the major vertebrate pest of maize, especially at planting and seedling stages and annual losses are high. We evaluated the potential of two seed-dressing compounds, thiram and cinnamamide, as rodent repellents to protect maize against damage by multimammate rats, Mastomys natalensis. In laboratory tests, the two compounds showed a strong repellent effect against M. natalensis and thus the potential to protect maize seeds. The two compounds were evaluated in maize fields using Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications. The results show that these repellents are effective for protecting maize seeds against multimammate rats in the field, but in locations with high population of Tatera leucogaster, seedlings are still damaged after emergence. Therefore, in such locations, other control measures, including application of rodenticides just before seedling emergence may be necessary.

The on-site and off-site impacts of land degradation, particularly in the form of soil erosion, pose a serious problem in many developing countries. In Sri Lanka, the implementation of wide-ranging policy reforms and institutional changes designed to move the country toward an outward oriented market economy, have strengthened concerns about environmental degradation and the sustainability of the country's natural resource base. The environmental impact of many of the policy reforms and economic changes are determined by complex economy-wide, inter-sectoral interactions. A computable general equilibrium model incorporating soil erosion is developed to analyse the impacts of various policy reforms in Sri Lanka. Our analysis establishes three important results. First, economic losses from soil erosion in Sri Lanka are substantial. Second, trade liberalisation reforms increase national income and marginally reduce soil erosion. Third, while trade liberalisation has a positive impact on soil erosion, complementary policies which directly target soil erosion, such as tax/subsidy incentives, are needed to minimise social losses from soil erosion.

The Indian cities are facing the problem of shortage of parking spaces for vehicles. This is happening even in small and medium size cities. The boom in vehicle ownership and the limited spaces available along or off the road network aggravates the problem. This results in the erratic parking behaviour. Therefore, the need is to implement policy measures that would solve the problem not only by satisfying the parking demand but also by not causing an economic loss to the area. In this respect, two studies were conducted in a medium sized city Kota, Rajasthan State in India. This paper presents the outcome of those studies and compares the results of duration analysis performed using stated intention survey data with respect to a parking usage and duration analysis done using conventional methods. The study was carried out in old city area of Kota City. The area attracts all types of trips as it provides opportunities for working, shopping, commercial visits, social visits and housing. The analysis involved computation of parking characteristics, parking accumulations and parking duration under one study and person characteristics, parking characteristics, parking policy examination and preference analysis and parking duration analysis. The comparison was made between the parking duration computed for different categories of vehicles under the two studies. It was observed that the variation in values is acceptable for full-term analysis. The persons understate durations for short-term stays but overstate it for full term stay. A fourth and fifth order polynomial is fitted for the information available.

Avian influenza virus (AIV) causes great economic losses for the poultry industry worldwide and threatens the human population with a pandemic. The conventional detection method for AIV involves sample preparation of viral RNA extraction and purification from raw sample such as bird droppings. In this study, magnetic beads were applied for immunoseparation and purification of AIV from spiked chicken fecal sample. The beads were conjugated with monoclonal antibodies against the AIV nucleoprotein, which is conserved in all the AIV. The bead-captured virus was detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) without RNA extraction because of effective removal of RT-PCR inhibitors. The developed bead-based assay showed a similar detection limit comparable to the RNA extraction and the classic virus isolation method. Using ready-to-use antibody-conjugated bead, the method requires less than 5 h. Furthermore, the method has potential to integrate into a Lab-on-a-chip system for rapid detection and identification of AIV. Crown

Despite a plethora of research in the area, none of the mechanisms proposed so far for Denial-of-Service (DoS) mitigation has been widely deployed. We argue in this paper that these deployment difficulties are primarily due to economic inefficiency, rather than to technical shortcomings of the proposed DoS-resilient technologies. We identify economic phenomena, negative externality---the benefit derived from adopting a technology depends on the action of others---and economic incentive misalignment---the party who suffers from an economic loss is different from the party who is in the best position to prevent that loss---as the main stumbling blocks of adoption. Our main contribution is a novel DoS mitigation architecture, Burrows, with an economic incentive realignment property. Burrows is obtained by re-factoring existing key DoS mitigation technologies, and can increase the &quot;social welfare,&quot; i.e., economic benefit, of the entire Internet community---both infrastructure ...

Listeria monocytogenes is a major foodborne pathogen in the United States. Effective methods for reducing L. monocytogenes in foods would reduce the likelihood of foodborne outbreaks of listeriosis, and decrease economic losses to the food industry. Nigella sativa is a herbaceous plant, whose seeds (black seed) have been used as a spice and condiment in foods in the Middle East. The objective of this study was to determine the antibacterial effect of black seed oil on twenty strains of L. monocytogenes by disc diffusion method. A population of 7.0 log CFU of each strain of L. monocytogenes was inoculated on duplicate plates containing antibiotic medium one agar. The plates were allowed to dry at room temperature for 15 min. Three discs (6 mm diameter), each impregnated with 10 ll of black seed oil, vegetable oil (oil control), or gentamicin (positive control) were placed on each inoculated plate. The plates were incubated at 37°C for 24 h, and were observed for zones of L. monocytogenes growth inhibition. Black seed oil exhibited a strong antibacterial activity against all the strains of L. monocytogenes, yielding a significantly (P < 0:01) larger inhibition zone than that of gentamicin. The mean zones of inhibition produced by black seed oil and gentamicin were 31.50 ± 1.0 and 14.80 ± 0.50, respectively. The vegetable oil had no inhibitory effect on L. monocytogenes. Results indicate that black seed oil could potentially be used to inhibit L. monocytogenes, but appropriate applications in foods need to be validated.

This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. This paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries' mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive warming without hampering economic growth. Results indicate that developing countries would incur substantial economic losses by following a myopic strategy that disregards climate in the short-run, and that their optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the implementation of a climate policy by roughly 10 years. Investing in innovation ahead of time is also found to be advantageous. The degree of policy anticipation is shown to be important in determining the financial transfers of an international carbon market meant to provide incentives for the participation of developing countries. This is especially relevant for China, whose recent and foreseeable trends of investments in innovation are consistent with the adoption of domestic emission reduction obligations in 2030.

Around the world, in high- and low-income countries alike, mental illness and high-risk behaviors contribute to profound suffering and loss at the level of the individual and the state. In the case of China as in other developing countries, gains made in the areas of economics, technology, education, and overall standard of living are being offset by a rise in

An earthquake planning scenario document was recently released by the USGS and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a MW7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13m, and up to 8m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of

It is generally understood that as a country develops, it devotes greater resources to safety, including implementing precautionary measures designed to reduce the impacts of natural disasters. With the recent devastating human and economic impacts of the tsunami in Southeast Asia ...

Lactococcus garvieae is the etiological agent of Lactococcosis, an emergent disease which affects many fish species and causes important economic losses both in marine and freshwater aquaculture when water temperature increases over 16 1C in summer months. Normally, it causes a hyperacute and haemorrhagic septicemia. This paper presents a state of the art review of fish Lactococcosis including aspects such as pathogen characterization, pathogenesis, epidemiology, diagnosis and control measures of the disease in farmed fish.

In north-eastern Majorca (Balearic Islands), an area where dolphin predations on the nets were repeatedly reported by fishermen, specially during the red mullet fishing season, the effectiveness of pingers in discouraging common bottlenose dolphins from approaching trammel nets was addressed in a field study during September-October 2001. The pingers used emit eight wide-band frequency signals that range between 20 kHz and 160 kHz, with mean source levels of 145 dB (re 1 Pa at 1 m) at 70 kHz. In the same study dolphin damage to the nets and economic losses by the fishermen were also evaluated. Though pingers did not stop dolphins from approaching the fishing nets, the nets equipped with functional pingers received less damage (87% fewer holes) than nets with non-functional devices or without pingers. Tested pingers did not appear to have any effect on fishery target species. Nevertheless, the use of pingers may bear unwanted environmental impacts, which are also reviewed here.

Bovine brucellosis is one of the most important zoonotic diseases worldwide, and is of particular significance in developing countries. The disease, which results in serious economic losses due to late term abortion, stillborn and weakly calves, is caused by Gram negative coccobacilli bacteria of the genus Brucella. Lesions consist of necrotic placentitis and interstitial mastitis in pregnant cows, and fibrinous pleuritis with interstitial pneumonia in aborted fetuses and newborn calves. This article considers the pathogenesis of Brucella abortus and reviews the ability of the pathogen to invade phagocytic and non-phagocytic host cells, resist the acidified intraphagosomal environment, and inhibit phagosome–lysosome fusion. Significant aspects of innate and adaptive immunity against brucellosis are also discussed.

Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Geológicas Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México [email protected] ISSN (Versión impresa): 1026-8774 MÉXICO ... 2003 Laura Patricia Perucca / Juan de Dios Paredes FALLAMIENTO CUATERNARIO EN LA ZONA DE LA ...

The quality of electric power has been a constant topic of study, mainly because inherent problems to it can lead to great economic losses, especially in industrial processes. Among the various factors that affect power quality, those related to transients originating from capacitor bank switching in the primary distribution systems must be highlighted. In this work, the characteristics of transients resulting from the switching of utility capacitor banks are analyzed, as well as factors that influence their intensities. The conditions under which these effects are mitigated can then be investigated. A circuit that represents a real distribution system, 13.8 kV, from CPFL (Cia Paulista de Força e Luz-a Brazilian utility) was simulated through the software ATP (Alternative Transients Program) for purposes of this study. Finally, a comparison with real-life data recorded at the distribution system was performed in order to validate the present simulation.

Production losses and treatment expenditures consecutive to bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection in a dairy herd were calculated by partial budgeting based on published estimates of production effects. Overall costs (losses plus expenditures) resulted in a decreased gross margin of s10.7 and 19.0 per 1000 l of milk for an average and severe infection, respectively. With a milk quota system allowing no lease of quota, assuming adjustment of the herd size by the farmer to produce the quota, decrease in gross margin was limited to s7.9 and 13.9 per 1000 l of milk. #

This paper presents a contingent valuation study concerning landscape impacts generated by the construction of one dam (Baker 1) of the HIDROAYSEN hydropower project located in the Chilean Patagonia. A survey was used to collect information about citizens’ opinions towards the hydropower project in four major cities in Chile. Specifically, a One-and-One-Half-Bound (OOHB) willingness to pay eliciting format was applied to capture citizens’ WTP. The economic loss, associated to the landscape impacts for people living in urban areas of the country, is found to be approximately US$ 205 million, which is nearly 28% of the total investment. Our results also show that the cities’ distance from the dam affects citizens’ willingness to pay.

According to a recent World Bank report, the intensification of global fishing effort and the ensuing depletion of marine fish stocks causes economic losses of 50 billion US dollars annually. Data deficiencies, however, currently hamper analysis of global fishing effort. We analyzed data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the EUROPA fishing fleet registry, and peer-reviewed and other publications, to determine the global trends in fishing effort from 1950 to 2006. Our results show that global fishing effort, expressed as total engine power and the number of fishing days in a year (kilowatt days), was roughly constant from 1950 to 1970, and then steadily increased up to the present. Europe dominated global fishing effort, followed by Asia. Projecting current trends suggests that Asia will soon surpass Europe. Trawlers contribute a major fraction of global fishing effort, as do vessels greater than 100 gross registered tons. Current estimates of global fishing effort, the number of vessels, and total vessel tonnage are, however, underestimates given the data gaps that we have identified. Our results are useful in the following ways: (1) they may encourage researchers in academia and government to improve global fishing effort databases; (2) they allow deeper global analyses of the impact of fishing on marine ecosystems; (3) they induce caution in accepting current underestimates of economic losses of global fisheries; and (4) they reinforce calls for a reduction in global fishing effort.

Moraxella bovis is the etiologic agent of infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis, the most important ocular disease affecting cattle worldwide. The severity of the cases varied from eyes that exhibited mild signs to severe clinical cases with profuse lacrimation, conjunctival swelling, corneal opacity, and ulceration. Although the mortality is low, there is a high morbidity and important economic loss in terms of significant reduction in production.

Norway spruce bore an abundance of cones in Finland in 2000, but these cones were often fungalinfected. The seeds had structural injuries that were revealed when seed samples were examined using light (LM) and a field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM). Two main types of spores were found either in the tissues inside the seed coat or on the sarcotesta, the outermost layer of seed coat. The spores of Chrysomyxa pirolata appeared particularly in the nucellar tissue, where the cell walls were disintegrated at the middle lamellae and cytoplasm was disrupted. Degenerated remnants of fungal structures resembling aecial peridium were found close to aeciospores. The tissue of the megagametophyte differed also from that of a normal mature seed. Conidia of Thysanophora penicillioides were often encountered on the sarcotesta where the ordinary wax cover was missing. Fungal injury occurred in the nucellar layers that shelter the embryo and megagametophyte from desiccation and oxidation. Destruction of these structures together with rapid opening of the seed coat advance deterioration of seeds during storage and may cause unexpected economic losses in forest plant production.

DBELA is a Displacement-Based Earthquake Loss Assessment methodology for urban areas which relates the displacement capacity of the building stock to the displacement demand from earthquake scenarios. The building stock is modeled as a random population of building classes with varying geometrical and material properties. The period of vibration of each building in the random population is calculated using a simplified equation based on the height of the building and building type, while the displacement capacity at different limit states is predicted using simple equations which are a function of the randomly simulated geometrical and material properties. The displacement capacity of each building is then compared to the displacement demand obtained from an over-damped displacement spectrum, using its period of vibration; the proportion of buildings where damage exceeds each specified threshold value can thus be estimated. DBELA has been applied using the Turkish building stock following the collection of a large database of structural characteristics of buildings from the northern Marmara region. The probabilistic distributions for each of the structural characteristics (e.g., story height, steel properties, etc.) have been defined using the aforementioned database. The methodology has then been applied to predict preliminary damage distributions and social losses for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality for a Mw 7.5 scenario earthquake.

Despite uncertainty in all levels of analysis, recent and long-term changes in our climate point to the distinct possibility that greenhouse gas emissions have altered mean annual temperatures, precipitation and weather patterns. Modeling efforts that use doubled atmospheric CO 2 scenarios predict a 1-78C mean global temperature increase, regional changes in precipitation patterns and storm tracks, and the possibility of ''surprises'' or sudden irreversible regime shifts. The general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants. In lotic systems, altered hydrologic regimes and increased groundwater temperatures could affect the quality of fish habitat. In lentic systems, eutrophication may be exacerbated or offset, and stratification will likely become more pronounced and stronger. This could alter food webs and change habitat availability and quality. Fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to

White spot disease (WSD) has been reported to cause severe mortality in farmed shrimp especially black tiger shrimp in many countries. WSSV is responsible for huge economic loss in the shrimp culture industry worldwide. The present study was carried out to examine the antiviral activity of a large scale produced plant extract of Cynodon dactylon on white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) in black tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon by in vivo testing after administration through oral route. The plant extract isolated from C. dactylon was incorporated with artificial pellet feed at a concentration of 1% or 2%. For experimental challenge shrimp were fed with WSSV-infected shrimp meat. WSSV-infection was confirmed by the PCR technique, bioassay and Western blot analysis at the end of the experiment. The results of the present study showed that the plant extract of C. dactylon was found to be highly effective in preventing WSSV infection with no mortality and no signs of WSD at 2% and 40% mortality at 1% in black tiger shrimp P. monodon, respectively.

In humans, metabolic complaints may be associated with a failure in one of the body hormone or enzyme systems, a storage disease related to lack of metabolism of secretory products because of the lack of production of a specific enzyme, or the breakdown or reduced activity of some metabolic function. Some of these disorders also occur in poultry, as do other important conditions such as those associated with increased metabolism, rapid growth or high egg production that result in the failure of a body system because of the increased work-load on an organ or system. These make up the largest group of poultry diseases classified as metabolic disorders and cause more economic loss than infectious agents.

In this chapter, the main features of current models for predicting the dynamics of house mice ( Mus domesticus ) populations are reviewed and an assessment made of their data requirements and their ability to contribute to the effective management of mice in Australia. In addition, recent progress with quantifying aspects of the dynamics of mouse populations in the Mallee

A set of fragility curves for the bridges commonly found in the Central and Southeastern United States (CSUS) is presented. Using the results of an inventory analysis of the typical bridges in the CSUS, four typical bridge types are identified. Using nonlinear analytical models, and a suite of synthetic ground motions, analytical fragility curves are developed for the four bridge types. The fragility curves were first generated for the individual components of each of the bridge types and then, they were combined into fragility curves that represent the entire bridge system using first-order reliability principles. The fragility curves show that the peak ground acceleration for a 50% probability of exceeding slight damage ranges from approximately 0.19 to 0.24 g for the four bridge types. Comparison of the fragility curves shows that the most vulnerable bridge types are the multi-span simply supported and multi-span continuous steel-girder bridges. The least vulnerable bridge is the multi-span continuous pre-stressed concrete-girder bridge. The developed fragility curves can be used for economic loss estimation as well as a basis for assigning retrofit prioritization for bridges. This is particularly useful in the Central and Southeastern United States where seismic retrofit of bridges is becoming more prevalent. #

Infection of poultry with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (AIV) can be devastating in terms of flock morbidity and mortality, economic loss, and social disruption. The causative agent is confined to certain isolates of influenza A virus subtypes H5 and H7. Due to the potential of direct transfer of avian influenza to humans, continued research into rapid diagnostic tests for influenza is therefore necessary. A nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) method was developed to detect a portion of the haemagglutinin gene of avian influenza A virus subtypes H5 and H7 irrespective of lineage. A further NASBA assay, based on the matrix gene, was able to detect examples of all known subtypes (H1-H15) of avian influenza virus. The entire nucleic acid isolation, amplification, and detection procedure was completed within 6 h. The dynamic range of the three AIV assays was five to seven orders of magnitude. The assays were sensitive and highly specific, with no cross-reactivity to phylogenetically or clinically relevant viruses. The results of the three AIV NASBA assays correlated with those obtained by viral culture in embryonated fowl's eggs.

A group of river managers, stakeholders, and scientists met during summer 2005 to design a more naturalized flow regime for the Lower Missouri River (LMOR). The objective was to comply with requirements under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to support reproduction and survival of threatened and endangered species, with emphasis on the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), while minimizing negative effects to existing social and economic benefits of prevailing river management. Specific hydrograph requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction are unknown, hence much of the design process was based on features of the natural flow regime. Environmental flow components (EFCs) extracted from the reference natural flow regime were used to design and assess performance of alternative flow regimes.

While the biofouler Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774) is known to cause great economic losses in North America, studies reporting the problem in Europe are much scarcer. This paper explores the industrial effects of the species in Portugal, the gateway by which the bivalve entered Europe around 30 years ago. National waterworks, major power stations, cement plants, pulp and paper mills and irrigation systems were surveyed. The industrial impacts of the pest were shown to remain relatively mild; irrigation systems are those that seem to be facing more significant economic losses due to infestation. Possible reasons for the apparent discrepancy between this result and the species dispersal in natural ecosystems are discussed, and recommendations on adequate responses to the latent threat are provided. This study may assist the implementation of integrated pest management policies in countries at risk of invasion or recently invaded, and contribute to an understanding of the species' progression in industrial environments.

The soil functional properties that characterise the terroirs of a denomination of origin area are products and witnesses of the Quaternary events, natural and human induced, which occurred in that landscape. Knowing the Quaternary history can enhance the awareness of stakeholders about the possible environmental and economic losses that can derive from irrational soil management, which can lead to the worsening or loss of irreproducible soils of the best terroirs.

In the ”Vino Nobile di Montepulciano” wine territory, a four-year research project was conducted on the relationships between the soil and the viticultural and oenological behaviour of the Sangiovese vine. The study soils of the Montepulciano vineyard ranged notably in fertility conditions and functional characters, even when formed on the same kind of sediments. The grape production and vintage, as well as the organoleptic characteristics of the wine, depended on the kind of soil. The wines obtained from a first group of soils had a good structure and typicity, but the stability of the wine’s sensorial profile from different vintages was low. A second group exhibited good structure, typicity, and a good stability of wine sensorial profile. A third group had the highest values of yield per vine, mean cluster weight, 100 berries weight and total acidity. Also, sugar content level and sugar accumulation rate were the lowest of all vineyards. Wines showed low structure, low typicity, and high astringency in all the years of the research.

The oldest soils of the Montepulciano vineyard started their formation during the Pleistocene. During the middle Holocene, humans deeply influenced pedogenesis, but it is during the last 50 years that the intensity of anthropic action has reached its maximum. Pre-plantation activities of the new specialized vineyards upset the land. Where soils before vine plantation were deep and rather homogeneous, functional characters remained the same, whereas they changed significantly where soils were shallower. Shallow soils on marine clays, in particular, have been very vulnerable to change. The best soils for Nobile di Montepulciano wine production, that is, those belonging to the second group, were Pleistocene and Holocene paleosols, formed as a consequence of unique natural and human induced geomorphological events. Therefore, they should be considered as cultural heritages.

Marine biodiversity is a resource of enormous importance to human societies that provides critical ecosystem services. Economic valuation of some services has been utilized to promote conservation initiatives by revealing a tangible and causative link between biodiversity declines and economic losses. Other ecosystem services have eluded valuation, including the value of the sea as a repository of novel pharmaceuticals. Here,

Helminth parasites are the cause of very significant morbidity, mortality and economic losses in man and domestic animals. Most parasitic helminths infect their hosts via the oral route, and live either at the mucosal surface of the gastro-intestinal tract (GIT), or cross this mucosal barrier on their way to predilection sites. Many helminths live at mucosal surfaces, typically the gut

Delivering accurate cyclone forecasts in time is of key importance when it comes to saving human lives and reducing economic loss. Difficulties arise because the geographical and climatological characteristics of the various cyclone formation basins are not similar, which entails that a single forecasting technique cannot yield reliable performance in all ocean basins. For this reason, global forecasting techniques need to be applied together with basin-specific techniques to increase the forecast accuracy. As cyclone track is governed by a range of factors variations in weather conditions, wind pressure, sea surface temperature, air temperature, ocean currents, and the earth' rotational force-the coriolis force, it is a formidable task to combine these parameters and produce reliable and accurate forecasts. In recent years, the availability of suitable data has increased and more advanced forecasting techniques have been developed, in addition to old techniques having been modified. In particular, artificial neural network based techniques are now being considered at meteorological offices. This new technique uses freely available satellite images as input, can be run on standard PCs, and can produce forecasts with good accuracy. For these reasons, artificial neural network based techniques seem especially suited for developing countries which have limited capacity to forecast cyclones and where human casualties are the highest.

On 16 October 1979, a tsunami of a local origin hits the French Riviera around Nice, France, killing 8 people and generating important economic losses. Its impact was felt from Hyères to Menton, France. The main effect of this tsunami was flooding in the neighborhoods of La Salis and La Garoupe, Antibes, France. A synthesis of unpublished reports written in the context of an administrative investigation was conducted. Various archives were also consulted (newspapers, fire and rescue unit reports, insurance reports, etc.), and a field survey was organized in 2009 to record testimonies from the inhabitants who witnessed the flood in La Salis, Antibes, the area where the effects of the tsunami were the greatest. A geo-database of the neighborhood of La Salis was built using available aerial imagery, land cover data and digital terrain models, to reconstruct the surface of the flooded area as it was in 1979 and as it is now. Comparing precise testimonies and the 1979 topographic information available allowed the authors to precisely map the flood and to deduce the runup values which reached 3.5 m locally, with a maximal distance of flooding of 150 m inland. This paper provides modelers with precious information about the extent of flooding and the time sequence in order to reconstitute the propagation and flooding of the 16 October 1979 tsunami. This information highlights the fact that the French Riviera is a low hazard, but high vulnerability area.