Demographic economics

We construct and parameterize an overlapping generations model for an open economy with individuals who differ in innate ability. Key endogenous variables are hours worked, investment in human and physical capital, and per capita growth. The model replicates important data in Belgium since 1960 remarkably well. Simulating it, we observe that behavioral adjustments by households and firms contribute to reverse the negative arithmetical effect of future demographic change on per capita growth. Individuals work and study more. However, with unchanged policies, there remains a net negative effect on annual per capita growth of almost 0.3%-points on average in the next 25 years. This is mainly due to adverse consequences of reduced fertility and a declining working-age population on (the return to) physical capital investment. Model projections also point to rising income inequality induced by demographic change. Differences in the capacity of individuals to respond to increasing life ex...

The purpose of this study was to determine the significant factors that influence unemployment among graduates in Malaysia. The variables consist of job mismatch, English proficiency and employability skills that were stated as independent variables for this study. The respondents were 150 employers and employees for both public and private institutions in Malaysia. The findings show that job mismatch, English proficiency and employability skills have impacts on the rate of unemployment among graduates in Malaysia. This study can be seen as a foreword to a more detailed study that can be carried out by future researchers on the issue of unemployment among graduates in Malaysia.

Higher education institutions are responsible for providing their graduates with relevant job skills that will allow them to compete in the labour market. With this in mind, the purpose of this study was to identify the factors associated with graduate unemployment in Ethiopia. The data were collected, analysed, and interpreted using a quantitative design. Using Cochran’s sampling formula, 359 graduates from five regions were selected as the sources of primary data. Multinomial logistic regression was used to analyse the data because it is a good model for computing the interaction between more than two independent and dependent variables. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.947 indicated that the instrument’s reliability is adequate. The study revealed that the independent variables that correlate with graduates’ unemployment are demographic characteristics, curriculum, institutional characteristics, graduate characteristics, and economic and labour market conditions. These findings ...

Las integraciones económicas en América latina, aquí analizadas, son la expresión de la gobernanza en el contexto del neoliberalismo, son también el resultado de los ajustes de segunda generación, en términos de aperturas comerciales, venta de activos estatales, libre movilidad de capitales de corto plazo y las mismas integraciones europeas y asiáticas que precedieron a las regionales. ¿Son las integraciones la salida al desarro llo? ¿Las integraciones del norte toman el mismo rumbo que las gestadas en el sur del continente? ¿A quién debería beneficiar las integraciones? ¿Existe un vínculo entre el desarrollo y la demografía? Son preguntas que este artículo responde.

Este artículo se refiere a la aplicación de la curva logística, que es un instrumento matemático usado por biólogos y demografistas para describir el crecimiento de poblaciones animales y de poblaciones humanas, así como para formular pronósticos futuros, a los censos de la ciudad de Medellín - Colombia, efectuados entre 1912 y 2005. Presentamos aquí la aplicación del método para calcular la curva logística de una población a partir de recuentos anteriores, y usando la técnica de mínimos cuadrados, desarrollada por Gabriel Poveda Ramos en la referencia [1]. La parte numérica del proceso se ilustra de una manera simple para un mejor entendimiento del manejo de esta técnica que, aunque es muy conocida y sencilla de usar, hasta hoy no se ha empleado (que sepamos) para ajustar dicha curva.

Many young people have short spells of unemployment during their transition from school to work; however, some often get trapped in unemployment and risk becoming long-term unemployed (OECD, 2009). Much research has been undertaken on the factors that influence unemployment risk for young people during their school-to-work transition. However, very little is known about the factors associated with long-term unemployment risk for those youths that become unemployed. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by identifying the characteristics associated with young peoples' long-term unemployment risk in Ireland. The research, which is conducted using multivariate statistical analysis, uses a combination of unemployment register data and information gathered from a specially designed claimant questionnaire that was issued to all jobseekers making an unemployment benefit claim between September and December 2006. The results indicate that factors such as a recent histor...

A central component of his theory of marriage Becker's Demand and Supply (D&S) models of marriage are also among the most unique models he pioneered. Here I provide an overview of Becker's analysis of the effects of sex ratios -the ratio of men to women in marriage markets -on individual consumption of married men and women, and indicate some of the ways that this analysis has been expanded and tested. Becker also used D&S analysis to develop his argument that polygyny benefits women and used the positive association between brideprice and polygyny as evidence. Relying on D&S models of marriage and based on the section of Becker's Treatise on the Family dealing with "price" rigidities in marriage it is shown that polygyny may be harmful to women. Furthermore, the positive association between brideprice and polygyny does not necessarily prove that women are better off under polygyny than under monogamy.

Consider migration to a higher income region as a human capital investment in which parents bear migration costs and children share returns. Migrants from a population with heterogeneous intergenerational discount rates will be self-selected on intergenerational altruism. Thus, immigrants may be self-selected on fertility. Soviet Jews who migrate to Israel despite high migration costs have significantly more children than members of the same birth cohort who migrate later when costs are low. We distinguish selection from treatment effects using a comparison group of women who migrate after childbearing age. We also find that immigrants favor bequests more and spend more time with their grandchildren in the U.S. Health and Retirement Survey. Selection on altruism can explain why historically immigrant-absorbing countries like the U.S. have higher fertility than other countries at comparable income levels. It provides an alternative explanation for Chiswick's classic earnings-overtaking result. Selection on altruism also implies that immigrant-absorbing regions will grow faster, or have higher per capita income, or both.

Siguiendo la economía del crimen según Becker (1968) y Ehrlich (1973)  —incluyendo el efecto del flujo migratorio— se analiza por qué algunos individuos eligen estratégica, racional —y contingentemente— participar en “parainstituciones” ilegales de invasión de tierras en Cali, desde la década de 1950. Para esto se modelará la eficiencia de la justicia con el fin de desincentivar las invasiones realizando simulaciones —ancladas a parámetros reales calibrados de la población relevante— de sanciones y probabilidades de aprehensión y castigo disuasorios bajo tres “parainstituciones”: dinastía invasora, invasión organizada e invasión contingente (flujo migratorio endógeno). Esto permitirá calibrar la línea de indiferencia (división) entre individuos con conductas invasoras (e incentivos a la ilegalidad) y no invasoras. Finalmente, se formulará una propuesta de política que ayude a corregir las ineficiencias detectadas en los mecanismos sancionatorios, si es el caso.

The data show that an increase in government provided old-age pensions is strongly correlated with a reduction in fertility. What type of model is consistent with this finding? We explore this question using two models of fertility: one by , and one inspired by and developed by . In Barro and Becker's model parents have children because they perceive their children's lives as a continuation of their own. In Boldrin and Jones' framework parents procreate because children care about their parents' utility, and thus provide them with old-age transfers. The effect of increases in government provided pensions on fertility in the Barro and Becker model is very small, whereas the effect on fertility in the Boldrin and Jones model is sizeable and accounts for between 55 and 65% of the observed Europe-U.S. fertility differences both across countries and across time.

This article analyzes the relation between unemployment duration and educational mismatches (overeducation and horizontal mismatches). This study proposes a job matching model to identify the theoretical mechanisms. An econometric analysis using the independent competing-risks duration model on a survey of graduates from Cambodian universities, allows testing the theoretical predictions. The results prove that unemployment duration increases with educational mismatches. The development of higher education sector in Cambodia needs to pay more attention to the unemployment risks and education-job mismatches among university graduates.

Using a representative sample of children all born to unwed parents drawn from the Fragile Fam-ilies and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS), we investigate whether marriage after childbirth has a causal effect on early child cognitive ability, using a treatment outcome approach to account for self-selection into marriage. Comparing children with similar background characteristics and parental mate-selection patterns who differ only in terms of whether their parents marry after childbirth, marriage between unwed biological parents leads to a four point increase in their child’s Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) score at age three relative to children whose parents remain unmar-ried.

The paper seeks to analyze the relationship between migrants' remittances and educational attendance in rural areas of southern Morocco. We perform a probit model to assess whether children who live in recipient households are more likely to attend school than their counterparts in other types of households. We find that the receipt of remittances has a significant positive effect on school attendance, especially for boys. The findings may be of interest to other developing countries and to the relevant policy makers, as the results suggest that migrants' remittance may serve as a channel for investing in human capital in such recipient countries and that the gains are much greater for boys, contributing to higher gender inequalities in access to education in rural areas.

Utilizing register panel data (1992—2003), in this article we study long-term sickness absence among immigrants and ethnic Norwegians ( n = 200,022). The data contain detailed information on socio-economic background, labour market participation and social insurance benefits for all individuals aged between 16 and 67 years residing in Norway. We present four main findings: (1) There is no difference in sickness absence between ethnic Norwegians and immigrants from the other Nordic countries, Western and Eastern Europe after controlling for demographic, socio-economic and labour market factors; (2) the sickness absence rates are higher among individuals from Asia (men and women) and Africa (men), and lower among men from North America and Oceania compared with ethnic Norwegians; (3) second-generation immigrants share the same level of sickness absence as ethnic Norwegians; (4) residence time has a curve-linear effect (reversed U-shape) on sickness absence for most immigrant groups. W...

provided inspired research assistance throughout the data collection of the second wave of the PSID Validation Study and in the analysis of those data represented in this paper. Dawn von Thurn was also instrumental in the data collection phase. It has benefited from comments of participants in the Cornell Labor Workshops. We also owe special thanks to several members of the personnel and payroll offices of the firm that cooperated with us in the PSID Validation Study. We regret that our pledge of confidentiality precludes listing their names to give them some well-deserved recognition. This paper is part of NBER's research program in Labor Studies. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Este artículo tiene como objetivo medir el impacto de las diferencias salariales por género en el Área Metropolitana de Medellín en el período 2002-2006, teniendo en cuenta variables como la experiencia, el nivel educativo, el sector económico y el nivel socioeconómico, a través de la formulación de un modelo de regresiones por cuantiles. Se encuentra evidencia de que existe una brecha salarial entre hombres y mujeres, a favor de los hombres. Se demuestra que el impacto de la educación en el logaritmo del salario por hora es mayor que el impacto de la experiencia, y que las mujeres presentan mayores niveles de educación que los hombres, pero reciben menor pago, lo que podría significar discriminación por género en el mercado laboral de Medellín para el período de análisis.

The aim of this study was to determine some of the key factors affecting youth employment from 2000-2015. Youth unemployment rate (YU) was the dependent variable while consumer price index (INF), domestic gross savings (GS), labor productivity (LP) and economic growth rate (GR) were the independent variables. Data from 31 OECD countries were obtained from World Bank (WB) and OECD databases. Panel Data Analysis was used to analyze the data. The results show that growth, inflation, and savings affect youth unemployment negatively while labor productivity affects youth employment positively. It is therefore concluded that growth, inflation, savings and labor productivity are among the key determinants of youth unemployment.

We hereby present a dataset produced at the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC) containing comprehensive time series on educational attainment and mean years of schooling (MYS). The dataset is split by 5-year age groups and sex for 171 countries and covers the period between 1970 and 2010. It also contains projections of educational attainment to 2060 based on several scenarios of demographic and educational development. The dataset is constructed around collected and harmonized empirical census and survey data sets for the projection base year. The article presents the principles and methodology associated with the reconstruction and the projection, and how it differs from several previous exercises. It also proposes a closer look at the diffusion of education in world regions and how the existing gaps in terms of generations, gender, and geography have been evolving in the last forty years.

This paper examines the impact of housing wealth on fertility related decisions by exploiting geographic variation in house price changes in Australia. Using data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, we find changes in house prices significantly affect the household decisions around fertility outcomes and fertility intentions. Our estimates indicate that, among homeowners, a $100,000 increase in house prices increases the likelihood of having a child by a 7.5 percent. An increase in house prices of this order leads to an increase in the intention to have a child, measured on a scale of 0-10, by a 2.5 percent. We show that the positive housing wealth effect on fertility is largely driven by females in their early 30s, with at least one child, and within a formally married relationship.

Dear colleagues,

We are pleased to publish the third issue of The Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research that contains four inaugural papers featuring both fine quality and a wide spectrum of topics across applied economics, business and finance. We hope you will enjoy these readings. To view articles, visit http://www.aebrjournal.org/current-issue.html.

We now welcome your full papers, research notes, review papers, conference reports, and other related materials for the second issue. Articles of between 5,000 and 8,000 words can be sent via e-mail to editorial team at [email protected] or [email protected]

We look forward to an interesting second issue!

Yours truly,

Alisher Akhmedjonov,
Filiz Karabag,
Farrukh Suvankulov

Associate Editors

Research on segregation of immigrant groups is increasingly turning its attention from residential areas toward other important places, such as the workplace, where immigrants can meet and interact with members of the native population. This article examines workplace segregation of immigrants. We use longitudinal, georeferenced Swedish population register data, which enables us to observe all immigrants in Sweden for the period 1990–2005 on an annual basis. We compare estimates from ordinary least squares with fixed-effects regressions to quantify the extent of immigrants’ self-selection into specific workplaces, neighborhoods, and partnerships, which may bias more naïve ordinary least squares results. In line with previous research, we find lower levels of workplace segregation than residential segregation. The main finding is that low levels of residential segregation reduce workplace segregation, even after we take into account intermarriage with natives as well as unobserved ch...

Immigration to the United States during the 1970's and 1980's was greater than in any decade since the 1920's. Simultane-ously, the proportion of immigrants arriving from Europe or English-speaking countries declined dramatically from 46 percent in the 1960's to only 13 ...

In contrast to previous results combining all ages, we find positive effects of comparison income on happiness for the under 45s and negative effects for those over 45. In the UK, these coefficients are several times the magnitude of own income effects. In West Germany, they cancel out to give no effect of comparison income on life satisfaction in the whole sample when controlling for fixed effects, time-in-panel, and age-groupings. Pooled OLS estimation gives the usual negative comparison effect in the whole sample for both West Germany and the UK. The residual age-happiness relationship is hump-shaped in all three countries. Results are consistent with a simple life cycle model of relative income under uncertainty. Jel codes D10, I31, J10

The fertility practices of immigrants are a particularly interesting field of study for demographers, providing an insight into the fertility behaviour of individuals when both the society and the individual undergo a period of rapid change. This paper describes and compares the fertility behaviour of two large groups of immigrants, from the former Soviet Union (FSU) and from Ethiopia to Israel in the last 20 years. The changes in fertility behaviour undergone in the same society and at the same time by two very different groups are examined. The findings reveal that the fertility behaviour of immigrants is indeed changing. The fertility of FSU immigrants is increasing and that of the Ethiopian immigrants decreasing, with accompanying changes in the proximate determinants of fertility. Although the fertility of immigrants is becoming more similar to that of the receiving society, the methods employed to achieve the fertility change are not necessarily similar, and, in some cases, diverge from the norms of the receiving society.

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

The gender-inequality is a critical economic challenge that has a significant negative impact on global economic prospects. In this context, this study aims to investigate the association between gender inequality and growth outcomes in the form of gross domestic product (GDP hereafter) per-capita across 158 countries in the world during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that GII has a significant inverse correlation with GDP per-capita (r=-0.7886); While gender development index (GDI hereafter) shows a positive correlation with GDP per-capita (r=0.574). Results from the multivariate log-linear model show that country with a high level of gender inequality index (GII hereafter) is having significantly lower levels of GDP per-capita even after controlling for other covariates. This study evidentially suggests that the economic policy of the countries should prioritize autonomy, agency, and empowerment of women to improve their participation in the national economy. Unless countries reduc...

This study proposes a welfare-based analysis of the gender gap in unemployment by examining the gender differences in the concentration and repeated spells of unemployment using data from the French cohort survey ("Enquête Génération") regularly conducted by the French Center for Studies and Research on Qualifications (CEREQ). In fact, studies on the gender gap in unemployment have focused primarily on the unemployment rate, ignoring the welfare dimension of the issue. This former captures only the cross-section elements of unemployment, omitting its longitudinal and repetitive aspects, which are of crucial interest from a welfare perspective, especially if unemployment is measured over a period of time (say one year or more). Building upon previous research on the measurement of unemployment and on explaining recurrent spells of unemployment, we propose a welfare-based analysis of gender gaps in unemployment. Unemployment involves welfare loss that can be analyzed through its recurrence and concentration. Both recurrence and concentration of unemployment lead to unstable and difficult living conditions. We use (Shorrocks A, J Eco Inequal 7: 295-310, 2008b) index of unemployment and count data models to apprehend and model these two aspects of unemployment. Then, we apply a regression-based decomposition method to identify the factors behind the gender gaps in recurrent unemployment and concentration of unemployment among youth leaving the education system in France. The results suggest that the gender gaps in recurrent unemployment and concentration of unemployment result from differences in the way young females and males are treated in the labor market.

Does going to school pay off? Most people think so. Currently, almost 90 percent of young adults graduate from high school and about 60 percent of high school seniors continue on to college the following year. People decide to go to college for many reasons. One of the most compelling is the expectation of future economic success based on educational attainment. This report illustrates the economic value of an education, that is, the added value of a high school diploma or college degree. It explores the relationship between educational attainment and earnings and demonstrates how the relationship has changed over the last 25 years. Additionally, it provides , by level of education, synthetic estimates of the average total earnings adults are likely to accumulate over the course of their working lives. These synthetic estimates of work-life earnings, which are based on data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), are illustrative and do not predict actual future earnings. The synt...

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rig...

En este trabajo se utiliza un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) para examinar la interrelación entre la entrada de flujos de inversión extranjera directa (EFIED), las exportaciones, el producto interno bruto (PIB), la tasa de desempleo (TD) y la tasa de participación laboral (TPL) en Puerto Rico. Los datos utilizados incluyen los años fisca- les de 1980 al 2010. Se encontraron cuatro vectores cointegrados en el sistema, que evidencian la existencia de una relación de largo plazo entre las variables. Los hallazgos sugieren que aumentos consecutivos en la EFIED podrían reducir significativamente la TD e incrementar el interés de los puertorriqueños por ingresar en la fuerza laboral. El mismo resultado se refleja con relación a los incrementos en el nivel de exportaciones. Las variaciones en el PIB se explican principalmente en el largo plazo por la TD.

Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually. (JEL J10, J13, J18, J24, O15, Z13)

En este trabajo se utiliza un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) para examinar la interrelación entre la entrada de flujos de inversión extranjera directa (EFIED), las exportaciones, el producto interno bruto (PIB), la tasa de desempleo (TD) y la tasa de participación laboral (TPL) en Puerto Rico. Los datos utilizados incluyen los años fisca- les de 1980 al 2010. Se encontraron cuatro vectores cointegrados en el sistema, que evidencian la existencia de una relación de largo plazo entre las variables. Los hallazgos sugieren que aumentos consecutivos en la EFIED podrían reducir significativamente la TD e incrementar el interés de los puertorriqueños por ingresar en la fuerza laboral. El mismo resultado se refleja con relación a los incrementos en el nivel de exportaciones. Las variaciones en el PIB se explican principalmente en el largo plazo por la TD.

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

This article examines the central role of occupation as the "reward packages" in creating earnings disparities between rural migrants and local workers in urban China's labor markets. Analyses of data from the population mini-census of China in 2005 show that, rural migrants' earnings disadvantages are largely attributable to occupational segregation (between-occupation variation) by workers' household registration status (hukou) rather than unequal pay within the same occupations, but surprisingly they enjoy a slight earnings advantage in lower-status occupations (within-occupation variation). Even after controlling for education and other characteristics, occupational segregation by hukou status continues to exist. The occupational segregation is the most severe in government agencies/state institutions and the least severe in the private sector, leading to earnings disparities between rural migrants and urban local workers in different work unit sectors. Our...

We examine patterns in fertility during the demographic transition using a panel data set across 25 Asian countries for 1975-2003. The adult female literacy rate is used as an instrumental variable for the endogenous female labor force participation rate, which has been unsolved in the population literature. The preliminary panel data analysis suggests that relative cohort size is significant in explaining the decline in fertility before controlling for simultaneity bias. This result, however, may be spurious. After considering the instrumental variables estimation in the panel data structure, the age structure variable no longer plays a dominant role in explaining declining fertility rates in many Asian countries. Systematic differences were found between East and South Asia. A policy implication in South Asia is that development may reduce fertility directly through increasing income rather than indirectly through a change in female labor force participation or urbanization. In East Asia, the indirect effects dominate.

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The Effect of Integration Policies on the Time until Regular Employment of Newly Arrived Immigrants: Evidence from Denmark * We analyse the effect of active labour-market programmes on the hazard rate into regular employment for newly arrived immigrants using the timing-of-events duration model. We take account of language course participation and progression in destination country language skills. We use rich administrative data from Denmark. We find substantial lock-in effects of participation in active labour-market programmes. Post programme effects on the hazard rate to regular employment are significantly positive for wage subsidy programmes, but not for other types of programmes. For language course participants, improvement in language proficiency has significant and substantial positive effects on the hazard rate to employment.