Asset Allocation

We examine whether the decision to participate in the stock market and other related portfolio decisions are influenced by income hedging motives. Economic theory predicts that the market participation propensity should increase as the correlation between income growth and stock market returns decreases. Surprisingly, empirical studies find limited support for the income hedging motive. Using a rich, unique Dutch data set and the National Longitudinal Survey of the Youth (NLSY) from the United States, we show that when the income-return correlation is low, individuals exhibit a greater propensity to participate in the market and allocate a larger proportion of their wealth to risky assets. Even when the income risk is high, individuals exhibit a higher propensity to participate in the market when the hedging potential is high. These findings suggest that income hedging is an important determinant of stock market participation and asset allocation decisions.

This paper investigates the presence of time-varying comovements, volatility implications and dynamic correlations in major Balkan and leading mature equity markets, in order to provide quantified responses to international asset allocation decisions. Since asset returns and correlation dynamics are critical inputs in asset pricing, portfolio management and risk hedging, emphasis is placed on the respective (constant and dynamic) equity market correlations produced by alternative multivariate GARCH forms, the Constant Conditional Correlation and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation models. The Balkan stock markets are seen to exhibit time-varying correlations as a peer group, although correlations with the mature markets remain relatively modest. In conjunction with sensitivity analysis on the asymmetric variance-covariance matrix, active portfolio diversification to the Balkan equity markets indicates to potentially improve investors' risk-return trade-off.

Does the number of funds offered in your defined contribution plan affect how many funds you choose to invest in or how you spread dollars across the funds you choose? Across three experiments and the analysis of defined contribution plan data, we explore these issues by examining investors' tendency to engage in the 1/n heuristicallocating their dollars evenly across all available investment options (Benartzi and Thaler 2001). We decompose this heuristic into its two underlying behavioral dimensions: the tendency to invest in all available funds (which we label 1/n #) and the tendency to spread the invested dollars evenly across chosen funds (which we label 1/n $). We argue that choosing from larger fund assortments taxes investors' cognitive resources, which leads to more simplified diversification strategies. We find that increasing the fund assortment size decreases the tendency to invest in all available funds (1/n #), but increases the tendency to spread the invested dollars evenly among the chosen alternatives (1/n $)provided that the number of funds chosen for investment allows for easy equal dollar allocations. We integrate our results with prior research regarding asset choice and allocation heuristics.

Regulation in countries that have adopted de…ned contribution (DC) pension systems based on savings accounts typically includes minimum return guarantees (MRG) provisions to limit the risk of …nancial downturns. This paper studies the consequences of this regulation over asset allocation within a standard model of dynamic portfolio selection, where managers act strategically while making their investment decisions as in (Basak and Makarov, 2008, Strategic Asset Allocation with Relative Performance Concerns. Working Paper. London Business School). We study a standard dynamic portfolio choice problem in a setting that includes two new ingredients: strategic interaction among portfolio managers and the presence of a MRG. The (pure strategy Nash) equilibrium portfolios are provided in closed-form in the Black and Scholes setting. They are shown to be weighted averages of investment rules that are themselves optimal in scenarios that may become optimal once the uncertainty has resolved. Our results also suggest that MRG rules that rely on index-based benchmark portfolios (as opposed to peer-group ones) may help to mitigate some of the problems that arise when portfolio managers are too prone to relative performance concerns (i.e., the selection of myopic portfolios).

The provision of investment services (and the correlated ancillary services) and collective investment services forms part of the main functions carried out by the securities industry. From an industrial point of view, all the activities defining the securities industry represent subsequent stages of the production process of the industry. The financial exchange sensu stricto uses the orders originating from the investment decisions produced in the asset allocation stages as input for the production process and, in turn, is divided into the order capture, order execution and order processing stages. The presence of banking intermediaries characterizes all the stages of the production process of the securities industry. This, of course, has implications in terms of profitability of the banking groups and affects their competitive strategies.

The popularity of downside risk among investors is growing and mean return±downside risk portfolio selection models seem to oppress the familiar mean±variance approach. The reason for the success of the former models is that they separate return¯uctuations into downside risk and upside potential. This is especially relevant for asymmetrical return distributions, for which mean±variance models punish the upside potential in the same fashion as the downside risk.

The main objective of a hedge strategy is to generate positive returns irrespective of market conditions. This paper presents a classic hedge fund strategy: an investment vehicle whose key objective is to minimize investment risk in an attempt to deliver profits under all market circumstances. The hedge is designed to have minimal correlation with the market and, irrespective of market direction, the fund seeks to generate positive alpha. A significant difference between this model and more traditional hedge fund strategies is that portfolio optimization is based upon the cointegration of prices rather than the correlation of returns.

In this article we test whether the stock market in India is driven by macroeconomic fundamentals. We use a non-parametric approach to determine whether any variables are nonlinearly related with stock returns and the variability of stock returns by taking monthly observations from 1998 to 2008. We consider exchange rate, interest rate, industrial production, inflation and foreign institutional investments as macro-economic factors. Further, we employ a semi-parametric approach to see whether any of the macrovariables have a significant nonlinear impact on the stock return and on the variability of stock return. Our results suggest that of the Ordinary Least Square and semi-parametric approaches, the semi-parametric approach better explains the stock returns and volatility.

What is the relative importance of asset allocation policy versus active portfolio management in explaining variability in performance? Considerable confusion surrounds both time-series and cross-sectional regressions and the importance of asset allocation. Cross-sectional regressions naturally remove market movements; therefore, the cross-sectional results in the literature are equivalent to analyses of excess market returns even though the regressions were performed on total returns. In contrast, time-series analyses of total returns do not naturally remove market movements. Time-series analyses of excess market returns and cross-sectional analyses of either total or excess market returns, however, are consistent with each other. With market movements removed, asset allocation and active management are equally important in determining portfolio return differences within a peer group. Finally, an examination of period-by-period cross-sectional results reveals why researchers using the same regression technique can get widely different results.

Since the first initial public offering of a European football (soccer) club in 1983, more than forty other clubs have experienced a venture in the stock market. In this paper, it is investigated how much relevant and successful these experiences of listing and floating football clubs at the stock exchange have been. First, by showing that investing in the Dow Jones StoXX Football index is of little attractiveness in the perspective of an investor's efficient overall asset allocation. Then in examining the determinants of a football club's fair value and the relationship between stock performances and sporting results. Finally, an approach (alternative to the Anglo-American model of capitalism) of corporate governance, based on the concept of a soft budget constraint, is applied to European football clubs taking stake of their lasting financial deficits and debts. This alternative theoretical approach paves the way for an empirical testing of a vicious circle between negotiating higher TV rights revenues and player wage inflation.

This paper makes an extensive simulation comparison of popular dynamic strategies of asset allocation. For each strategy, alternative measures have been calculated for risk, return and risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, return at risk). Moreover, the strategies are compared in di erent market situations (bull, bear, no-trend markets) and with di erent market volatility, taking into account transaction costs and discrete rebalancing of portfolios. The simulations show a dominant role of constant proportion strategies in bear and no-trend markets and a preference for benchmarking strategies in bull markets. These results are independent of the volatility level and the risk-adjusted measure adopted.

The present work overviews the application of recom-mender systems in various financial domains. The relevant literature is investigated based on two directions. First, a domain-based cate-gorization is discussed focusing on those recommendation problems, where the existing literature is significant. Second, the application of various recommendation algorithms and data mining techniques is summarized. The purpose of this paper is providing a basis for further scientific research and product development in this field.

In this paper we present an alternative approach to equity trading that is based on cointegration. If there are long-run equilibria among financial assets, a cointegration-based trading strategy can exploit profitable opportunities by capturing mean-reverting short-run deviations. We conduct an in-depth analysis of the factors that affect the optimal portfolio construction and we study the impact of these parameters on the portfolio performance. Under certain parameter specifications, an efficient tracking portfolio is able to produce similar patterns in terms of returns and volatility with the market. Enhancing this simple equity indexing application allows for the construction of market-neutral strategies. We find that a successful long-short strategy of two cointegration portfolios can yield an annualized return of more than 8%, outperforming the benchmark and also demonstrating insignificant correlation with the market. Even though some cointegration-based pairs-trading strategies can consistently generate significant cumulative profits, yet they do not seem to converge to risk-less arbitrages, and thus the hypothesis of market eciency cannot be rejected.

This paper examines portfolio allocation decisions for a large sample of demographically diverse survey respondents in light of finance theory and the recommendations of financial advisors. We investigate whether asset allocation decisions vary for respondents who differ across several dimensions including gender, home ownership, age, net worth, and psychological orientation. Sample respondents' decisions are consistent with popular advice and finance theory. We find that only age affects the mix of risky securities. When we consider the allocation of total portfolio assets to equity, all individual characteristics except age matter. Psychological orientation contributes to our ability to explain asset allocation decisions.

Security Analysis, Portfolio Management, and Financial Derivatives integrates the many topics of modern investment analysis. It provides a balanced presentation of theories, institutions, markets, academic research, and practical applications, and presents both basic concepts and advanced principles. Topic coverage is especially broad: in analyzing securities, the authors look at stocks and bonds, options, futures, foreign exchange, and international securities. The discussion of financial derivatives includes detailed analyses of options, futures, option pricing models, and hedging strategies. A unique chapter on market indices teaches students the basics of index information, calculation, and usage and illustrates the important roles that these indices play in model formation, performance evaluation, investment strategy, and hedging techniques. Complete sections on program trading, portfolio insurance, duration and bond immunization, performance measurements, and the timing of stock selection provide real-world applications of investment theory. In addition, special topics, including equity risk premia, simultaneous-equation approach for security valuation, and Itô's calculus, are also included for advanced students and researchers.

In questo E-Book sono trattati in maniera molto semplice i concetti base della Pianificazione Finanziaria.
Per investire in maniera consapevole il primo step è quello di conoscere quali sono gli obiettivi che vogliamo raggiungere per soddisfare i nostri bisogni e quelli della famiglia.
Solamente così siamo sicuri di ottenere il massimo dai nostri risparmi e investimenti.
I principali errori dei risparmiatori sono quelli di investire valutando solo il rendimento o il rischio, senza considerare che spesso cercare il rendimento significa prendere dei rischi eccessivi o stare al riparo dai rischi è un errore altrettanto grave perché si rinuncia al rendimento.
Pianificare gli investimenti in funzione dei propri bisogni permette al risparmiatore di non rinunciare al rendimento nel tempo e di essere al riparo dai rischi nel breve periodo.

This article provides evidence and analysis to show that a MAC (multi-asset-class) diversified portfolio performed well in mean-variance space and under varying market conditions, including the very adverse 2008 market crash. The portfolio also delivered during the two bull phases in the full period over which asset history existed. The construction of the covariance matrix for the efficient frontiers was independent of any return estimates or dynamic volatility-switching mechanisms. To abstract from hindsight bias, a 1/N equal-weighted portfolio was constructed and tested, consistent with some literature — it may still be the best alternative. In any case, the minimum-variance portfolios and the 1/N portfolio far exceeded the Sharpe ratio of the capitalization-weighted Russell 1000 equity index. The efficiency gains are potentially attributed to a lower overlap of the return-generating vectors, something that is not possible, to that extent, in an all-equity portfolio, irrespective of the extent of diversification in the non-negative space. Toward that, a scalar construct of overall dependencies called generalized variance is used as a measure of the overall spread within the covariance matrix. Two actual efficient frontiers are built with return data over the full length of the study and are tested for portfolio efficiencies. The dual return series has been implemented in the Returnfinder App, which produces Total Return charts that include dividends. Finally, with the objective of making such alternate asset and risk-allocation processes available to a wider set of investors, the portfolio components chosen to represent the low-correlation asset classes were among the most liquid index ETFs available on U.S. exchanges.

As the assumption of normality in return distributions is relaxed, classic Sharpe ratio and its descendants become questionable tools for constructing optimal portfolios. In order to overcome the problem, asymmetrical parameter-dependent performance ratios have been recently proposed in the literature. The aim of this note is to develop an integrated decision aid system for asset allocation based on a toolkit of eleven performance ratios. A multi-period portfolio optimization up covering a fixed horizon is set up: at first, bootstrapping of asset return distributions is assessed to recover all ratios calculations; at second, optimal rebalanced-weights are achieved; at third, optimal final wealth is simulated for each ratios. Eventually, we make a robustness test on best performance ratios. Empirical simulations confirm the weakness in forecasting of Sharpe ratio, whereas asymmetrical parameter-dependent ratios, such as the Generalized Rachev, Sortino-Satchell and Farinelli-Tibiletti ratios show satisfactorily robustness.

The rapid rise of “alternative” and non-listed asset classes has been one of the most remarkable phenomena in the institutional investment space since the start of the Great Recession 7 years ago. This trend is contributing to a profound transformation of the financial ecosystem as a whole. 
This unprecedented change is occurring against the backdrop of a growing disaffection for actively managed public equity, long the investment category of choice for institutional asset owners.

This paper presents two applications of cointegration based trading strategies: a classic index tracking strategy and a long-short equity market neutral strategy. As opposed to other traditional index tracking or long-short equity strategies, the portfolio optimisation is based on cointegration rather than correlation. The first strategy aims to replicate a benchmark accurately in terms of returns and volatility, while the other seeks to minimise volatility and generate steady returns under all market circumstances. Additionally, several combinations of these two strategies are explored.

The authors provide a detailed study of the Swiss pension system, analyzing its strengths and weaknesses. The unfunded public pillar is highly redistributive. It has near universal coverage, a low dispersion of benefits (the maximum public pension is twice the minimum), and no ceiling on contributions. Low-income pensioners receive means-tested supplementary benefits. Payroll taxes are low, but government transfers cover 27 percent of total benefits. Total benefits amount to 9.1 percent of GDP, equivalent to 15.2 percent of covered earnings. The funded private pillar was made compulsory in a defensive move against the relentless expansion of the public pillar. The compulsory pillar stipulates minimum benefits in the form of age-related credits, a minimum interest rate on accumulated credits, and a minimum annuity conversion factor, aimed to smooth changes in interest rates over time. Low-income workers are not required to participate in the second pillar. The first and second pillar...

The asset allocation decision is often considered as a trade-off between maximizing the expected return of a portfolio and minimizing the portfolio risk. The riskiness is evaluated in terms of variance of the portfolio return, so that it is fundamental to consider correctly the variance of its components and their correlations. The evidence of the heteroskedastic behavior of the returns and the time-varying relationships among the portfolio components have recently shifted attention to the multivariate GARCH models with time varying correlation. In this work we insert a particular Markov Switching dynamics in some Dynamic Correlation models to consider the abrupt changes in correlations affecting the assets in different ways. This class of models is very general and provides several specifications, constraining some coefficients. The models are applied to solve a sectorial asset allocation problem and are compared with alternative models.

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for long horizon investors, time diversification has been mostly investigated in asset menus without real estate and focusing on in-sample experiments. This paper evaluates ex post, out-of-sample gains from diversification when E-REITs belong to the investment opportunity set. We find that diversification into REITs increases both the Sharpe ratio and the certainty equivalent of wealth for all investment horizons and for both Classical and Bayesian (who account for parameter uncertainty) investors. The increases in Sharpe ratios are often statistically significant. However, the out-of-sample average Sharpe ratio and realized expected utility of long-horizon portfolios are frequently lower than that of a one-period portfolio, which casts doubts on the value of time diversification. JEL Classification Codes: G11, L85.

This paper examines the relation between earnings management and corporate governance in China by introducing a tunneling perspective. We document systematic differences in earnings management across the universe of China's listed companies during 1999-2005, and empirically demonstrate that firms with higher corporate governance levels have lower levels of earnings management. We study two Chinaspecific situations, in which the listed firms have strong incentives to manage earnings in order to meet certain return on equity (ROE) thresholds, and earnings management has been shown to be the most conspicuous. We identify tunneling evidence for each. Our empirical findings, although not being able to completely exclude other explanations, strongly suggest that agency conflicts between controlling shareholders and minority investors account for a significant portion of earnings management in China's listed firms.

Prior research suggests that the funding and asset allocation decisions for defined benefit pension plans may be based on tax, risk, and profitability factors. Much of the previous empirical work, however, suffers from statistical problems that may produce misleading or contradictory results. We employ a confirmatory factor analytic model to address the statistical problems plaguing pension research. Various competing hypotheses are tested simultaneously. Findings indicate that firms use pensions to offset business risk.

The Brazilian equity market is characterized by relatively low liquidity, high cost of capital (low firm valuation), and limited new capital raising. Ownership concentration of corporations is high, with large wedges between control and cash flow rights, leading to large differences in pricing of non-voting and voting shares, reflecting the risks of expropriation by insiders. In recent years, much of

Despite foreign reserves' strategic asset allocation relies mainly on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), the unique characteristics of central banks obliges them to articulate and reconcile typical optimization procedures with reserves' management objectives such as providing confidence regarding the ability to meet the country's external commitments. Moreover, further involvedness come from broad economic factors as diverse as the openness of capital and current accounts, external debt's maturity and currency composition, and exchange rate regime.

We gauge the economic value of multivariate covariance estimators by assessing the risk-return performance of the resulting mean-variance efficient portfolios. A dynamic asset allocation framework is deployed, where the multivariate covariance forecasts compete against simpler nonparametric rivals widely used in the industry. A two-layer portfolio construction process for global asset allocation is developed to overcome the problem of handling large

The aim of this paper is to compare two asset allocation methods for a pension scheme during the decumulation phase in the simplified portfolio selection between a risky asset following a geometric Brownian motion and a riskless asset. The two asset allocation criteria are the ruin probability of the insurance company and the optimization of the economic capital. We first

We provide a framework for using conditioning information in the process of global asset allocation. While we discuss strategies in a global setting, the same reasoning can be applied to other asset allocation programs with different investment objectives.

This paper evaluates the tactical asset allocation (TAA) capabilities, strategies and behaviour of Australian investment managers who invest assets across multiple asset classes. Specifically, we analyse the behaviour of balanced, growth and capital stable fund managers with regard to their asset allocation activity across defensive (cash, domestic bonds, overseas bonds) and growth (domestic equities, international equities, property) asset classes, over the period December 1989 to February 2001. Overall, our evidence suggests that active managers have been unable to deliver investors with superior returns through tactical asset allocation. While the most successful asset class, domestic equities, has been value enhancing, international shares and domestic fixed interest have generally detracted value. Finally, across all asset classes examined, our findings suggest that asset allocation into domestic equities is the most influenced by public economic information variables, with shortterm interest rates, the term structure and dividend yield all having a significant explanatory role.

International mutual funds are key contributors to the globalization of financial markets and one of the main sources of capital flows to emerging economies. Despite their importance in emerging markets, little is known about their investment allocation and strategies. This article provides an overview of mutual fund activity in emerging markets. It describes their size, asset allocation, and country allocation and then focuses on their behavior during crises in emerging markets in the 1990s. It analyzes data at both the fund-manager and fund-investor levels. Due to large redemptions and injections, funds' flows are not stable. Withdrawals from emerging markets during recent crises were large, which is consistent with the evidence on financial contagion.

Three crucial ingredients influence how much individuals will have to fund retirement income needs: how much they contribute to savings, how long they save for, and the performance of these savings. This paper focuses on the issue of performance, and how individuals perform when they are given the choice of making their own investment strategy for their retirement savings contributions. An empirical examination using a large sample gathered from four Australian superannuation funds is utilised and finds that on average members underperform their own fund's default option both in raw returns and on a risk-adjusted basis. For trustees and regulators charged with the responsibility of looking after the interests of members an important result identifies significant differences in performance based on how members are allowed to construct their investment strategy.

Harvard Law School (Cambridge MA). His current research is on pension fund governance, focusing upon trustee decision-making competence and consistency and the design of rules and regulations to enhance the investment performance of these crucial institutions. With Professor John Marshall and Ms Emiko Caerlewy-Smith, he has concluded a two-year project on trustee competence drawing upon the attitudes and decision-making skills of a select group of UK trustees.

One of the crucial aspects in asset allocation problems is the assumption concerning the probability distribution of asset returns. Financial managers generally suppose normal distribution, even if extreme realizations usually have an higher frequency than in the Gaussian case. The aim of this paper is to propose a general Monte Carlo simulation approach able to solve an asset allocation problem with shortfall constraint, and to evaluate the exact portfolio risk-level when managers assume a misspecified return behaviour. We assume that returns are generated by a multivariate skewed Student-t distribution where each marginal can have different degrees of freedom. The stochastic optimization allows us to value the effective risk for managers. In the empirical application we consider a symmetric and heterogeneous case, and interestingly note that a multivariate Student-t with heterogeneous marginal distributions produces in the optimization problem a shortfall probability and a shortfall return level that can be adequately approximated by assuming a multivariate Student-t with common degrees of freedom. Thus, the proposed simulation-based approach could be an important instrument for investors who require a qualitative assessment of the reliability and sensitivity of their investment strategies in the case their models could be potentially misspecified. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Black-Litterman model introduces the concept
of market equilibrium as a starting point.
• In parallel, the investor forms views of relative value
portfolios and assigns an error term to his forecast
as well as a degree of confidence in each view.
• This provides a flexible, logical and consistent way
of deviating from the market benchmark.

What is the relative importance of asset allocation policy versus active portfolio management in explaining variability in performance? Considerable confusion surrounds both time-series and cross-sectional regressions and the importance of asset allocation. Cross-sectional regressions naturally remove market movements; therefore, the cross-sectional results in the literature are equivalent to analyses of excess market returns even though the regressions were performed on total returns. In contrast, time-series analyses of total returns do not naturally remove market movements. Time-series analyses of excess market returns and cross-sectional analyses of either total or excess market returns, however, are consistent with each other. With market movements removed, asset allocation and active management are equally important in determining portfolio return differences within a peer group. Finally, an examination of period-by-period cross-sectional results reveals why researchers using the same regression technique can get widely different results.

This paper assesses the value of correlation dynamics in mean-variance asset allocation. A correlation-timing framework is deployed with state of the art models competing against industry correlation-updating rivals and static allocation strategies. We address the extent to which the superior statistical properties of multivariate conditional correlation models translate into enhanced investment performance. The success of the conditional correlation models is

This paper presents a new measure of skewness, skewness-aware deviation, that can be linked to prospective satisflcing risk measures and tail risk measures such as Value-at-Risk. We show that this measure of skewness arises naturally also when one thinks of maximizing the certainty equivalent for an investor with a negative exponential utility function, thus bringing together the mean-risk, expected utility,