Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security

“In the two decades since 9/11 the United States has been forced to deal in a new area of public policy – Homeland Security – that lies between two heretofore well understood areas – National Security and Law Enforcement. National Security dealt with threats from abroad while Law Enforcement, or more broadly public safety, dealt with internal threats. Both were underpinned with ample theory. In the rush to ‘do something about’ Homeland Security there has been precious little intellectual capital spent on developing the needed theoretical underpinnings. In Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security: Strategies, Operations and Structures, Ramsay, Cozine, and Comiskey have done this labor for us, in a readable and well thought out explication of the theory that should support such a broad integrated effort at all levels of government, including the private sector, including academia”. —Barry Zulauf, Professor of Applied Intelligence at Georgetown University, and President of IAFIE “Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security: Strategies, Operations and Structures stands as one of the most significant contributions to the scholarship of homeland security studies. In developing the first-ever homeland security textbook specifically dedicated to theory; Ramsay, Cozine, and Comiskey have set a solid foundation upon which future scholars of this emerging discipline can build. In every regard, this textbook skillfully sets out and explains the related theories that have contributed to the emergence and evolution of the homeland security enterprise— ultimately forming the basis for an integrated theory of homeland security. This book is a must for inclusion in any homeland security or related academic program and also serves as a valuable tool for practitioners in the field”. —Kelly W. Sundberg, Mount Royal University, Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute, Former Senior Policy Officer with the Ministry of Public Safety Canada, Citizenship and Immigration Canada Investigator, and Canada Border Services Agency Inland Enforcement Officer “Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security: Strategies, Operations and Structures is an extremely useful book and an essential contribution to the debates about the concept of Homeland Security; a concept that is more than the sum of its parts - national security and internal security. The individual contributions offer up invaluable insights into the various aspects of Homeland Security and, taken together, provide an understanding of the concept that is both broad and deep. This book will be an indispensable resource for academics, students, and policymakers alike”. —David Strachan-Morris, Lecturer in Intelligence and Security, University of Leicester, UK “Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security: Strategies, Operations and Structures takes on the mammoth challenge of developing a grand theory of homeland security. In a single volume, the book presents basic theoretical frameworks from more than a dozen disciplines that contribute to an understanding of contemporary and future homeland security problems. The text will offer unique value to college courses that seek to integrate practical and conceptual approaches to homeland security”. —Chris Bellavita, Director of Programs for the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security “Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security: Strategies, Operations and Structures is a recognition that acceptable levels of security can vary over time and across nations, depending upon a variety of factors. I saw this first-hand just within my three years as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security. ‘Security’ as we know it is in reality a continuing effort to strike the right balance between the public’s basic physical security on the one hand and the preservation of the public’s basic freedom and privacy on the other. Those in public safety are the guardians of one as much as the other”. —Jeh Charles Johnson, Partner Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, and former Secretary, US Department of Homeland Security “We live at a historic juncture as old notions of threat and security ring hollow and new paradigms must be currently found. Ramsay, Cozine and Comiskey’s ambitious book aims to do just that. By drawing on the established understanding in different areas of scholarship the authors masterfully redefine the field of homeland security for in the twenty first century. This is much more than a theoretical primer for students and neophytes. This volume will prove invaluable even to seasoned scholars and practitioners in the field”. —Allon J. Uhlmann and Stephen McCombie, Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University, Australia Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security This new textbook outlines the main theories and concepts from a variety of disciplines that support homeland security operations, structures and strategies. Following the terrorist attacks of September 11th, “homeland security” (HLS) grew in importance within the U.S. government (and around the world) and matured from a concept discussed among a relatively small cadre of policymakers and strategic thinkers to a broadly discussed issue in Congress and society with a growing academic presence. Yet the ability to discern a theory of homeland security that would support overall security strategy has been more elusive to both scholars and policymakers. This textbook aims to elucidate a grand theory of homeland security by leveraging the theoretical underpinnings of the disciplines that comprise the strategies, operations and structures of the HLS enterprise. In this way, each chapter contributes to a grand theory of homeland security as it explores a different discipline that influences or supports a domain of the homeland security enterprise. These chapters cover intelligence systems, terrorism origins and ideologies, emergency management, environmental and human security, cybersecurity policy, crime and security, global governance, risk management, public health, law and policy, technology, interagency collaboration and the sociology of security. This book will be essential reading for students of Homeland Security and Emergency Response, and recommended reading for students of terrorism, intelligence, cybersecurity, risk management and national security. James D. Ramsay is a professor of Security Studies and coordinator of the Homeland Security Program at the University of New Hampshire, the United States. He is also founding chair of the Department of Security Studies. Keith Cozine is an associate professor and director of the doctoral program in Homeland Security at St. John’s University, the United States. He has a decade and a half of law enforcement and intelligence experience including nearly ten years with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. John Comiskey is an associate professor of Homeland Security at Monmouth University, the United States. He is a retired New York City Police Department Lieutenant and U.S. Coast Guard Senior Chief Petty Officer. Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security Strategies, Operations, and Structures Edited by James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine, and John Comiskey First published 2021 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2021 selection and editorial matter, James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine, and John Comiskey; individual chapters, the contributors The right of James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine, and John Comiskey to be identified as the authors of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Ramsay, James D., editor. | Cozine, Keith, 1972- editor. | Comiskey, John, 1964- editor. Title: Theoretical foundations of homeland security : strategies, operations, and structures / edited by James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine, and John Comiskey. Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2021. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2020032411 (print) | LCCN 2020032412 (ebook) | ISBN 9780367201692 (hardback) | ISBN 9780367201708 (paperback) | ISBN 9780429259920 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: United States. Department of Homeland Security. | Terrorism--United States--Prevention. | Terrorism--Prevention--Government policy--United States. | National security--United States--Management. Classification: LCC HV6432.4 .T44 2021 (print) | LCC HV6432.4 (ebook) | DDC 363.325/15610973--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020032411 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020032412 ISBN: 978-0-367-20169-2 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-367-20170-8 (pbk) ISBN: 978-0-429-25992-0 (ebk) Typeset in Times by KnowledgeWorks Global Ltd. To all those who promote and defend liberty around the globe. Contents List of figures List of tables List of contributors Foreword Acknowledgements List of abbreviations Glossary 1 Introduction to security theory xi xiii xiv xvi xix xxi xxiv 1 JAMES D. RAMSAY, KEITH COZINE AND JOHN COMISKEY 2 Risk assessment and the homeland security enterprise 16 BRIAN HARTE 3 The sociology of security 38 TERRENCE O’SULLIVAN 4 Crime and security 58 CHELSEA A. BINNS 5 Terrorism: origins, ideologies and goals 78 KYLE W. MCDONNELL AND KEITH COZINE 6 Interagency collaboration 99 JOHN COMISKEY 7 Emergency management—theories of preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery IRMAK RENDA-TANALI 121 x Contents 8 Global governance and the relationships between nations 148 KEITH COZINE 9 Intelligence and the theory of preventive action 168 ERIK J. DAHL 10 Human and environmental security theory 187 JAMES D. RAMSAY AND TERRY O’SULLIVAN 11 Public health security 208 TERRENCE M. O’SULLIVAN AND JAMES D. RAMSAY 12 Homeland security law and policy theory 231 MICHAEL MCDANIEL 13 Cybersecurity policy and theory 257 MAEVE DION 14 Theoretical underpinnings of homeland security technology 285 MICHAEL D. LARRAÑAGA AND PATRICK K. SMITH Index 307 Figures 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 6.1 6.2 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 Severity of event’s impact-decision matrix. Estimating the impact of an event utilizing probability and impact indicators. Global risk profile. COSO enterprise risk management cube. The US DHS logo. US federal government interagency collaborations regarding climate change. The aftermath of the Johnstown Flood. “Ruins from Site of the Hulburt House”. In: “History of the Johnstown Flood”, by Willis Fletcher Johnson, 1889, p. 181. Library call number M79.4 J71h. 1889 June. Photographer: Archival photograph by Mr. Steve Nicklas, NOS, NGS. Image source: Flickr.com Galveston, Texas hurricane devastation and destruction, image source: pixabay.com The great dust bowl, image source: pixabay.com Washington, D.C. World War II memorial. Image source: pixabay.com Flooding after Hurricane Betsy, 1965, Image source: flickr.com Days after Sep. 11 terrorist attacks, fires still burn amidst the rubble of the World Trade Center. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate 2nd Class Jim Watson. (RELEASED) Source: flickr.com FEMA leadership organizational structure. Image source: FEMA Organizational chart of DHS and FEMA’s position. Image source: DHS National preparedness system, Source: FEMA Aerial views of the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy to the New Jersey coast taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion: New Jersey Army National Guard: Oct. 30: 2012. (U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen/Released) Source: Wikimedia 29 30 31 33 101 106 123 124 124 125 126 129 130 130 133 134 xii Figures 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 7.15 10.1 10.2 10.3 11.1 11.2 14.1 Cyber-attack. Source DHS.gov Explosives terrorism attack. Source: DHS.gov Major storms/severe weather event, source: DHS.gov Pandemics, source: DHS.gov National political conventions, source: DHS.gov Theoretical example of how environmental security may be tied to national security Relationships between homeland, national and environmental security. General structure of the environmental security construct, drivers and consequences Infectious disease triangle, Terrence M. O’Sullivan, adapted from CDC (2012) Medical Countermeasures (MCMs) used for Public Health Emergency/Disaster Response (graphic by FDA, 2019) Technology acceptance model (TAM) 139 140 141 141 142 193 197 199 210 212 292 Tables 6.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 10.1 11.1 14.1 Homeland security focusing events Hazard types based on originating source, Source: CPG 101, p. 1-8 Sample List of hazards based on originating source, Source: CPG 101, p. 4-10 FEMA’s current definition of key planning areas Suspected knowledge domains of homeland security CDC select category a bioagents and public health characteristics Capability domains and priorities 102 135 135 137 193 223 296 List of contributors Editors James D. Ramsay, Ph.D. is a full professor of security studies, coordinator of the Homeland Security program and founding chair of the department of security studies at the University of New Hampshire. Current research interests include climate security; homeland security theory, cyber-intelligence; and the relationship between environmental and human security and national security strategy. Keith Cozine, Ph.D. is an associate professor of Homeland Security at St. John’s University in Queens, NY. He earned an M.A. in Criminal Justice and Ph.D. in Global Affairs, both from Rutgers University. In addition, Dr. Cozine has nearly a decade and a half of law enforcement and intelligence experience. John Comiskey, Ed.D. is an associate professor of Homeland Security at Monmouth University. He is a retired NYPD Lieutenant and US Coast Guard Reserve Intelligence Officer. Current research includes climate security, homeland security theory, homeland security education and mass shootings. Contributors Chelsea Binns, Ph.D., is an assistant professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. She is the author of Fraud Hotlines: Design, Performance & Assessment (CRC Press), editor of The Art of Investigation (Routledge) and an expert in security & investigations who has a Ph.D. in Criminal Justice from the CUNY Graduate Center. Erik J. Dahl, Ph.D. is an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, and the author of Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond (Georgetown University Press, 2013). He is Chair of the Intelligence Studies Section of the International Studies Association. Maeve Dion, J.D. teaches cybersecurity and homeland security at UNH, where she directs the online M.S. in Cybersecurity Policy and Risk Management. Professor Dion specializes in the legal, policy and educational issues relating to cybersecurity and organizational resilience. Over the past two decades, she has supported efforts of the EU, COE, OECD, NATO CCDCOE; DHS, DOD, NSTAC, and ABA, among others. List of contributors xv Brian K. Harte, Ph.D. is a full professor of Homeland Security and Criminal Justice at St. John’s University. He formerly served as a probation administrator in the state of Texas. Currently, he serves as the Master of Professional Studies in Homeland Security and Criminal Justice Leadership Program Director at St. John’s University. Michael D. Larrañaga, Ph.D. is President of R.E.M. Risk Consulting, a science-based risk management firm. He has served as an appointed member of the Board of Scientific Counselors for the CDC’s National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health and the DHS First Responders Group. He is an innovation scholar and cofounder of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s HSx Advanced Thinking in Homeland Security initiative. Brigadier General (ret.) Michael McDaniel, J.D. is Associate Dean at Western Michigan University-Cooley Law School, Director of the Master of Laws in Homeland and National Security Law program and a tenured professor of Constitutional Law. He previously served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense Strategy and as Michigan’s first Homeland Security Advisor. McDaniel has a B.A. from St. Bonaventure University, a J.D. from Case Western Reserve University, and graduate degrees in security studies from the Army War College and the Naval Postgraduate School. Kyle W. McDonnell, M.P.S. is currently a senior project manager assigned to the NYPD’s Project Management Office (PMO), and an adjunct assistant professor at St. John’s University. He has served on active duty in the United States Army. He received his bachelor’s degree from LIU Post, his master’s degree in Criminal Justice Leadership & Homeland Security from St. John’s University and is currently a doctoral candidate in the St. John’s University’s Homeland Security Doctoral Program. Terry O’Sullivan, Ph.D., is an associate professor in the University of New Hampshire’s Security Studies program. His teaching, research and publications concentrate on domestic and international security studies, broadly writ—including pandemic disease, the climate crisis, community disaster resilience, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and the theoretical, policy and practice-level integration of homeland security and other security frameworks. Irmak Renda-Tanali, Ph.D. is a senior disaster risk specialist at the Pacific Disaster Center of the University of Hawaii. She specializes in risk assessment of natural and human-induced disasters. She has over 20 years of experience in researching, consulting and teaching in the emergency management field. She holds a doctoral degree in engineering management from George Washington University. Patrick K. Smith, Ph.D. is a partner with R.E.M. Risk Consultants. His expertise is technology innovation, continuous improvement, energy management and risk management in a variety of settings. Patrick has a background in data analytics and management information systems with experience managing and analyzing large data sets. Dr. Smith was previously a DHS Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Fellow at Oklahoma State University. Foreword By Paul Stockton As a curriculum and field of research, homeland security rests on an enduring puzzle. What does homeland security comprise? In contrast to traditional graduate-level disciplines, such as biology or engineering, homeland security lacks a system of accreditation that rests on an agreed set of curricular requirements and learning outcomes. The absence of such accreditation reflects a deeper problem. Through innovation and constant revision, graduate and undergraduate programs in homeland security are still developing an agreed set of core principles and distinctive methodologies. By providing a grand theory of homeland security, this book is structured to advance consensus-building on the meaning of homeland security and the education and research components at its heart. The shifting priorities within and between homeland security programs reflect the abrupt changes in the practice of homeland security at all levels of government and— increasingly—by the owners and operators of critical infrastructure. The National Defense Panel’s 1997 report on “Transforming Defense: National Security in the 21st Century” helped coin the terms “Homeland Defense” and “Homeland Security”. That report exclusively focused on responding to terrorism and did not mention the emergency management or public safety requirement for preparedness against natural disasters. 9/11 sharpened and institutionalized that focus. As stated by the National Strategy for Homeland Security of 2002, homeland security comprises “a concerted national effort to prevent terrorist attacks within the United States, reduce America’s vulnerability to terrorism, and minimize the damage and recover from attacks that do occur”. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 drove a fundamental rethinking of that emphasis. With the Post-Katrina Emergency Reform Act and subsequent initiatives, legislators, homeland security practitioners and their partners brought emergency management and public safety priorities into the core of the emerging discipline. Superstorm Sandy (2012) and Hurricane Maria spurred an equivalent expansion of the field to include the resilience of the electric grid and other critical infrastructure sectors, as well as associated expertise in engineering and incident response possessed by owners and operator of those systems—not government agencies. That evolution continues today. The COVID-19 pandemic is prompting a deep rethinking of supply chain resilience, catastrophic threats to public health, business continuity and a range of other education and research topics that forward-looking curricula must now embrace. Manmade threats must drive further changes. The Fourth Edition of the National Response Framework (2019) emphasized the need for preparedness efforts to support Foreword xvii US national security, including against nation state threats that possess capabilities dwarfing those of Al Qaeda or any other terrorist organization. Accordingly, the Framework (NRF) emphases the need to “help maintain essential services for critical national security installations” and other initiatives that have never before been a priority of homeland security. And all such changes, including those that should be considered for inclusion in homeland security curricula, must account for rise of cyber threats to US infrastructure and the emergence of information warfare against US citizens as the “new normal”. Without a guiding theoretical framework, homeland security is at risk of becoming an ever-changing grab bag of education and research priorities. That trend comes at a cost. We need an educated cadre of future homeland security leaders who can not only respond to threats of today but are also prepared to meet challenges that cannot be foreseen. The US National Preparedness Goal provides a starting point to identify the core requirements for developing such a cadre. The Goal calls for “A secure and resilient Nation with the capabilities required across the whole community to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the threats and hazards that pose the greatest risk”. Helping fulfill that goal will require the development of shared expertise in specific methodologies—for example, risk-based analysis and data analytics. The diversity of threats confronting the United States will also require homeland security curricula to be multidisciplinary, and encompass emergency management, public health and safety, and a range of other disciples with their own deep roots for education and professional development. Maturing homeland security as an academic field will require new approaches to integrate these disparate parts into a coherent whole. That is, to truly become a profession, the discipline needs an organizing theoretical framework. This volume argues that such a framework should accomplish four goals: (1) it should guide and predict research on best practices and strategies to protect the nation; (2) the theory must support curriculum development; (3) it must explain how the disciplines that comprise the homeland security enterprise support and contribute to its mission; and (4) it must build upon the solid and progressive foundation already established in academic homeland security, which has been led by the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s University and Agency Partnership Program (UAPP). At the time this text is set to be published, the Department of Homeland Security will be 18 years of age, and academic homeland security roughly 15 years of age. As the homeland security enterprise has matured, so has its corresponding academic component. For example, as of 2019, UAPP lists around 460 homeland security-related academic programs, including programs at the Associate, Bachelor, Masters and Doctoral levels. While several programs started as new programs, many others were merely extensions of existing programs in criminal justice or emergency preparedness. Since homeland security does not yet enjoy recognized accreditation, there has not been a set of learning outcomes shared across all homeland security programs as there is in medicine, law, engineering, nursing, etc. However, recent scholarship in this area indicates that degree programs tend to leverage a common set of knowledge domains including risk management, emergency management, terrorism, intelligence, strategic planning, law and policy, environmental and human security to name a few. Further, significant progress has been made in the development of a body of knowledge including journals dedicated to basic and applied research, the scholarship of teaching and learning, as well as resilience. Supporting development of scholarship, education, xviii Foreword networking and ideation, several annual conferences such as the Homeland Security Education Summit sponsored jointly by FEMA and the UAPP as well as FEMA’s Emergency Management Higher Education Symposium are held each year. An established theoretical foundation, an established common curriculum and a research agenda must be aligned to professionalize a discipline. In this way, homeland security can learn from medicine. Indeed, the parallels between how medicine grew and matured as a discipline and how it became a sovereign profession are already visible in homeland security. Consider that both homeland security and medicine share several characteristics. For example, modern medicine is complex and dynamic and is a composite of many disciplines such as anatomy, physiology, toxicology, chemistry, physics, biochemistry, psychology, epidemiology, to name a few. Not only does such a structure support the medical curriculum, it supports and guides research that optimizes best practices, strategies, and healthcare structures. And not surprisingly, theories of health and medicine contain elements from several disciplines. Indeed, advancements in component disciplines often find applications in medicine such as advancements in physics created MRI and PET scanners, while advancements in biochemistry have improved chemotherapy. Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security: Strategies, Operations and Structures posits a grand theory of homeland security that will help the discipline professionalize. Ultimately, this volume is timely, necessary and meets a critical need in the growth and professional development of the homeland security discipline. I hope you enjoy it, learn from it and are empowered to advance the discipline as we continue to work together to protect the nation. Paul N. Stockton is the Managing Director of Sonecon, LLC. Before joining Sonecon, he served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas’ Security Affairs from May 2009 until January 2013. Acknowledgments Anytime one endeavors to produce a complex product of high quality, one of the first things one notices is that they are going to need a great deal of help and support. This volume represents such a product. Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security: Strategies, Operations and Structures has been years in the making. From initial talks with friends, to conference presentations and debate among colleagues, this book represents the cumulative expression of years of scholarship, debate and discourse. Interestingly, one of the complicating factors in producing this book was that it is somewhat the first of its kind. Establishing a grand theory of homeland security has been difficult in the past because of the nature of the discipline. Every aspect of the homeland security enterprise that enables it to function in a dynamic, interconnected world is also the leading prohibitor to a theory of what it is and how it works. Indeed, it would appear as though homeland security is a metadiscipline, that is a discipline of disciplines. It was logical for us, therefore, to enlist the help and support of scholars, practitioners and academics to contribute the individual components that together and collectively synergize into the strategies, operations and structures that represent homeland security. Toward this end, we would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude to Routledge for believing in this effort early on, to our contributing authors who labored long and hard to produce draft after draft and who were writing about a discipline in which they are experts, but who were attempting to create a chapter that blends with and mutually supports the other chapters, that together comprise the wholeness of homeland security. Specifically, we would like to thank Brian Harte for his expertise and vision in risk management, Terry O’Sullivan for his ability to focus the broad field of sociology in a way that supports homeland security strategy, for Chelsea Binns for recognizing just how criminology supports the mission of homeland security, for Kyle McDonnell who with Keith Cozine, was able to distill terrorism into digestible parts that illustrate its role in protecting the homeland, to Irmak Renda-Tanali for her keen insights into emergency management and her ability to tease out where emergency management synergizes with homeland security, and how its mission supports the practice of homeland security, to Erik Dahl for his insightful grasp of the intelligence discipline and how theories of intelligence work to support homeland defense and security, to Mike McDaniel who had the incredibly arduous task of explaining the role law and policy have in homeland security, to Maeve Dion for creating a compelling explanation of what cybersecurity is, and how the laws, and policies that define it are critical to homeland security, and finally to Mike Larrañaga and Patrick Smith for developing xx Acknowledgments a novel and innovative approach to our understanding of the role technology play in supporting how institutions and agencies work to protect its citizens. Next, we would like to extend our gratitude to our colleagues who gave us insightful comments and course corrections, to Chris Bellevita who forever asks “what is your claim and why should we believe you”, to Steve Recca for indulging and supporting the national conversation and debate over what may or may not be a theory of homeland security, to Linda Kiltz for inspiring us to a higher level of thought and who facilitates our ability to connect homeland security to other critical disciplines on which the enterprise depends, and to Paul Stockton who provides unparalleled perspective and insights into this discipline. Last but never least, we would like to thank our families for listening to us “think aloud”, for supporting us when things were not working well, for encouraging us to carry on and for just always being there. We sincerely hope you find this book of value, and we would welcome feedback and dialog as we continue to define, refine the discipline we love and ultimately to make the world a safer, more secure and happier place. Happy reading! James, Keith and John List of abbreviations AI APT ARPANET AST CC CDC&P CHDS CIA CISA COSO CPG CPTED CRS CTA DARPA DHS DOD DOI DOJ EOP EPA ERM ES EU FBI FEMA FINDER FRG FTC GAO GDP GHG HIPAA HLS HSIB ICAO Artificial Intelligence Advanced Persistent Threats Advanced Research Projects Agency Network Adaptive Structuration Theory Climate Change Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (aka CDC) Center for Homeland Defense and Security Central Intelligence Agency Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Committee of Sponsored Organizations Comprehensive Preparedness Guide Crime Prevention through Environmental Design Congressional Research Service Clandestine Transnational Actor Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency U.S. Department of Homeland Security U.S. Department of Defense Diffusion of Innovation Theory U.S. Department of Justice Emergency Operations Plan(ing) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Enterprise Risk Management Environmental Security European Union Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Emergency Management Agency Finding Individuals for Disaster and Emergency Response First Responders Group U.S. Federal Trade Commission Government Accountability Office Gross Domestic Produce Greenhouse Gas(es) Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 Homeland Security Homeland Security Industrial Base International Civil Aviation Organization xxii List of abbreviations ICC Interagency Collaborative Capacity ICE U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement ICS Incident Command System IOCS-CERT Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team IGO International Governmental Organizations IMC Interagency mechanisms for collaboration IoT Internet of Things IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IR Incident Response ISIS Islamic State in Iraq and Syria ISO International Organization for Standardization IT Information Technology JIOCS Joint Intelligence Operations Centers JTTF Joint Terrorism Task Force LDC Less Developed Country(ies) MDC More Developed Country(ies) NAPA National Academy of Public Administration NCCIC National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center NCPC National Crime Prevention Council NCMEC National Center for Missing and Exploited Children NERC North American Energy Reliability Corporation NGA National Governors Association NGO Non-governmental Organization NIH U.S. National Institute of Health NIMS National Incident Management System NIST U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology NIST-CSF National Institute of Standards and Technology-Cybersecurity Framework NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRCC National Response Coordination Center NRF National Response Framework NTRO National Terrorism Response Objectives NYPD New York City Police Department ODNI Office of the Director of National Intelligence PCCIP President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection PCI-DSS Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard PDD Presidential Disaster Declarations PPD Presidential Policy Directive PEU Perceived Ease of Use PII Personally Identifiable Information PPD Presidential Policy Directive QDR Quadrennial Defense Review REDOPS Response and Defeat Operations Support RIC-M Radio Internet-Protocol Communications Model RRCC Regional Response Coordination Centers SARP Standards and Recommended Practices SAPBER Semi-Autonomous Pipe Bomb End Cap Remover SBIR Small Business Innovation Research List of abbreviations SMART Social Media Analytics and Reporting Toolkit SMT Social Movement Theory SNA Social Network Analysis SNRA Strategic National Risk Assessment STR Socio-Technical Systems Theory SSA Sector-Specific Agency TAM Technology Acceptance Model TAN Transnational Advocacy Networks THIRA Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment TSA U.S. Transportation Security Administration UN United Nations UTAUT unified theory of acceptance and use of technology USGCRP U.S. Global Change and Research Program VUCA volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous WLFF-APPS Wildland Firefighter Advanced Personal Protective System xxiii Glossary1 Adaptation in human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate. All-hazards approach is a risk-based, integrated approach to emergency preparedness planning that focuses on capacities and capabilities that are critical to preparedness for a full spectrum of emergencies or disasters, including internal emergencies, terrorism, natural or man-made disasters. Anthropogenic resulting from or produced by human activities. For example, anthropogenic climate change (aka global warming) refers to changes in the earth’s climate due to human activities that produce emissions (i.e., greenhouse gases) that in turn warm the earth. Balance of Power the theory that security is enhanced when military capabilities are distributed so that no one state is strong enough to dominate all others. If one state gains too much power in relation to its neighbors, the theory predicts that it will take advantage of its strength and attack those weaker neighbors, thus providing an incentive for those threatened to unite in a defensive coalition. Bilateral Agreement an agreement where one state cooperates or enter into a formal arrangement with another state in return for some sort of preferential treatment. Bounded rationality logic that leads to decisions or actions within a broad sense within one part of a system, but which may not be reasonable within a broad context or when seen as a part of a wider system. Carbon neutrality achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions at a global scale through the balance of residual carbon dioxide emissions with the same amount of carbon dioxide removal. Clandestine Transnational Actors (CTAs) non-state actors, operating across national borders in violation of law and evading law enforcement efforts. Climate is in a narrow sense usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Glossary xxv Cognitive Dissonance a state of conflict or discomfort—dissonance—that happens when strongly held beliefs, emotions or assumptions are contradicted by new information that motivates someone to either convince themselves the new information does not exist, or to explain it away in order to relieve the emotional tension caused. Collaborative Federalism an approach to homeland security which contends that homeland security is a national problem that requires national solution. Congress and its executive agent, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), should provide leadership and appropriate funding. DHS should be an agent of subnational levels of government, and states and local governments should collaborate with jurisdictions both vertically and horizontally. Conflict Theory social science theory that contends friction in the modern world has to do with a clash of the “old ways” versus the on-going march toward modernity and increased globalization. The preservation of traditional ways of life is often diametrically opposed to the rapidity of modernization, which has ultimately been sped up by the break-neck pace of technological advancement. Consequence the effect of an event, incident or occurrence. Consequence Assessment the product or process of identifying or evaluating the potential or actual effects of an event, incident or occurrence. Consequence Management include measures to protect public health and safety, restore essential government services and provide emergency relief to governments, businesses and individuals affected by the consequences of terrorism. Constructivism the classic international relations theory that asserts that the structures of human association are determined primarily by shared ideas rather than material forces, which is often referred to as an idealist approach to social life; and that the identities and interests of purposive actors are constructed by these shared ideas rather than given by nature, which is seen as holistic or structuralist approach that emphasizes the power of social structure as opposed to individualism. Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) the criminology concept that asserts that effective use of the “built environment” can lead to reduced crime and increased quality of life. It contends that properly designed spaces with surveillance opportunities, boundaries and a positive image discourage crime. Criminology the scientific study of crime that examines the people who commit crime, explores the reasons why they commit crime, the ways they can be stopped from committing crime and how society responds to this crime. Criticality the importance to a mission or function, or continuity of operations. Criticality Assessment the product or process of systematically identifying, evaluating and prioritizing based on the importance of an impact to mission(s), function(s) or continuity of operations. Cybersecurity includes the protection of information and computer and data processing infrastructure and operating systems from harmful interference from malicious actors (criminals, terrorists, pranksters). It thus involves not only national defense and homeland security but also law enforcement. Deepfake is a technology that uses AI to produce or edit contents of a video or an image to show something that may never have happened or did happen but in a different context. xxvi Glossary Defensible space the criminology theory that crime can be controlled through the design and structure of the environmental and can be addressed through a variety of security design concepts. Disaster any severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery. Economic Consequence effect of an incident, event or occurrence on the value of property or on the production, trade, distribution or use of income, wealth or commodities. Economic Security involves not only protecting the capacity of the economy to provide for the people but also the degree to which the government and the people are free to control their economic and financial decisions. It also entails the ability to protect a nation’s wealth and economic freedom from outside threats and coercion. Thus, it comprises not only economic policy and some law enforcement agencies but also international agreements on commerce, finance and trade. Emergency Management is the managerial function charged with creating the framework within which communities reduce vulnerability to hazards and cope with disasters. Energy and Natural Resources Security is most often defined as the degree to which a nation or people have adequate and sustainable access to such energy resources as oil, gas, water and minerals. Access includes availability of energy resources determined by the energy market without interference from other nations or political or military entities for non-market, political purposes. Enterprise Risk Management a comprehensive approach to risk management that engages organizational systems and processes together to improve the quality of decision making for managing risks that may hinder an organization’s ability to achieve its objectives. Environmental Security is a process for understanding how extreme environmental or climatic events, acting locally or trans-nationally, can destabilize countries or regions of the world, resulting in geopolitical instability, resource conflicts, and subsequently enhanced risk to critical infrastructure, or a combination of these. Epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area. Epidemics occur when an agent and susceptible hosts are present in adequate numbers, and the agent can be effectively conveyed from a source to the susceptible hosts. Extreme weather event An extreme weather event is an event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile of a probability density function estimated from observations. The characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from place to place in an absolute sense. When a pattern of extreme weather persists for some time, such as a season, it may be classed as an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or total that is itself extreme (e.g., drought or heavy rainfall over a season). Focusing events sudden, unpredictable and harmful events that gain the attention of policy makers and the public and drive national policy more so than other similar events. Glossary xxvii Food Security a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 2001). Fossil Fuels carbon-based fuels from fossil hydrocarbon deposits, including coal, oil and natural gas. Future shocks a dizzying disorientation brought upon by the premature arrival of the future. Game Theory a theory that seeks to explain strategies for dealing with competitive situations where the outcome of an individual’s choices depends critically on the other individuals involved in the competition. It has its roots in mathematics but has been used in the social sciences to explain the behavior of individuals, groups, organizations and nation states. Global governance when governance is utilized to address areas or issues of concern that affects more than one state or region and the actors involved in the process are transnational. It encompasses the institutions, policies, norms, procedures and initiatives through which states and their citizens try to bring more predictability, stability and order to their responses to transnational challenges in the absence of overarching political authority, such as in the international system. Global warming an increase in global mean surface temperature averaged over a 30-year period, relative to 1850–1900 unless otherwise specified. For periods shorter than 30 years, global warming refers to the estimated average temperature over the 30 years centered on that shorter period, accounting for the impact of any temperature fluctuations or trend within those 30 years. Globalization the increased connection of different parts of the world from advancement in communication and transportation technology resulting in the expansion of international cultural, economic and political activities. It is the movement and integration of goods and people among different countries. Governance the sum of many ways individuals and institutions, public and private, manage their common affairs. It is a continuing process through which conflicting or diverse interests may be accommodated and cooperative action may be taken. Greenhouse gas (GHG) greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by the earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary GHGs in the earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, there are several entirely human-made GHGs in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine- and bromine-containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Besides CO2, N2O and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the GHGs sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). Hazard a natural or man-made source or cause of harm, or loss or difficulty. Homeland Security a value-laden term, which often means different things to different constituents, organizations or stakeholders. Generally, homeland security refers to a set of collective actions of all levels of government (local, tribal, state, federal), constituents, organizations or stakeholders (i.e., members of the homeland security enterprise) to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to and recover from threats and hazards that pose risk to the nation. xxviii Glossary Homeland Security Enterprise an umbrella term that describes a collective of all levels of government, institutions and disciplines that collectively contribute strategies, structures or operations to the homeland security mission. The “enterprise” often includes all levels of government, constituents, organizations or stakeholders such as law enforcement, fire service, public health, academia, emergency medical services, the military, public works, and the public and private sectors. The enterprise is synonymous with “whole-of-community” and “all-of-nation” approaches to homeland security. Human Agency Bias the condition wherein people and even entire societies are far more interested in human threats—versus natural ones. Human Security a condition that is met when the vital core of human lives is protected, and when people have the freedom and capacity to live in peace, security and with dignity. The term is multidimensional and will often include constituent elements such as economic security, environmental security, food security, health security, personal security, community security, political security and the protection of women and minorities. Its distinguishing characteristic is to avoid or downplay national security as a military problem between nation states, focusing instead on an assumed international “responsibility to protect” peoples from violence. It is to be determined and administered by the United Nations. Intelligence (basic definition) information that provides decision makers with knowledge or foreknowledge of the world around them for the purposes of supporting policy or other strategic decisions. Intelligence Cycle a process wherein policy makers (consumers) decide what information they need (intelligence requirements) followed by collectors who gather raw data and analysts who try to make sense of that data, and a dissemination system that provides intelligence to the consumer—at which point the cycle starts over again. Interagency Collaborative Capacity (ICC) the results of a process that takes bits and pieces of existing organizations and somehow gets them to cohere and create a functioning entity that is better than the sum of its parts (also known as craftsmanship theory). Interagency Mechanism for Collaboration (IMC) include an array of arrangements or applications that can facilitate collaboration among agencies, including interagency offices, groups, task forces, councils, conferences and communities of practice, collaborative technology and similar constructs. Intergovernmental Organization (IGO) a formal entity formed by an intergovernmental agreement such as a treaty, charter or statute that involves two or more nations working in good faith, on issues of common interest. Issue-attention Cycle the ascension of issues to the top of the national policy agenda followed by declining public interest and the fading of the issue from the center of public attention. Kyoto Protocol the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was the seminal international treaty adopted in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, at the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP3) to the UNFCCC. Liberalism the classic international relations theory that holds human nature is basically good, social progress is possible and human behavior is malleable and perfectible through institutions. It argues that injustice aggression and war are products of Glossary xxix inadequate or corrupt institutions or misunderstanding among leaders and therefore that injustice, aggression and war are not inevitable but can be eliminated by collective action and institutional reform. Subdisciplines of liberalism include neoliberalism, functionalism, regime theory and collective or public good. Lone Wolf Terrorism a form of terrorism that is usually purely a domestic threat, even though the causes and the actors may be from abroad. It occurs when an individual or group of individuals are inspired to take action in support of a terrorist organization’s goals or ideology even though they have no formal contention to that organization. Mitigation focuses on the impact of a hazard, encompasses the structural and nonstructural approaches taken to eliminate or limit a hazard’s presence; people’s exposure; or interactions with people, property and the environment. The emphasis on sustained actions to reduce long-term risk differentiates mitigation from those tasks that are required to survive an emergency safely. Multilateral Agreement an agreement where three or more states cooperate or enter into a formal arrangement with one another in return for some sort of preferential treatment. Nation state a sovereign state (country) whose citizens are relatively homogeneous in terms of such factors of culture, language and common descent. National Incidence Management System (NIMS) NIMS provides a common, nationwide approach to enable the whole community to work together to manage all threats and hazards. NIMS applies to all incidents, regardless of cause, size, location or complexity. National Preparedness is based on core capabilities that support “strengthening the security and resilience of the United States through systematic preparation for the threats that pose the greatest risk to the security of the Nation, including acts of terrorism, cyber-attacks, pandemics and catastrophic natural disasters”. National Preparedness Goal (NPG) FEMA defines the NPG as “A secure and resilient Nation with the capabilities required across the whole community to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the threats and hazards that pose the greatest risk”. National Response Framework (NRF) The NRF is formerly the National Response Plan and is the basis for national-level planning for large-scale emergencies regardless of threat or hazard origin. National Security a capacity to control those domestic and foreign conditions that the public opinion of a given community believes necessary to enjoy its own self-determination or autonomy, prosperity, well-being and culture. Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) voluntary group of individuals or organizations, usually not affiliated with any government, that is formed around a particular issue or concern. Non-state actors an individual or organization that has significant influence of society but is not allied to a particular nation or state. Non-state actors that pose a threat to security include terrorists, narcotics traffickers, transnational crime groups, organized gangs and individual offenders. Offensible space when criminals and other bad actors use defensive space tactics to create a safe space where they can conduct their crimes. Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents typically at the same time and usually affecting a very large number of people. xxx Glossary Paradigm scientific practice including theories, laws, applications and instrumentations that are generally accepted by scientific communities. Paris Agreement the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted on December 2015 in Paris, France, at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC. The agreement, adopted by 196 Parties to the UNFCCC, entered into force on 4 November 2016 and as of May 2018 had 195 Signatories and was ratified by 177 Parties. Political Economy the set of interlinked relationships between people, the state, society and markets as defined by law, politics, economics, customs and power that determine the outcome of trade and transactions and the distribution of wealth in a country or economy. Political Security refers to protecting the sovereignty of the government and political system and the safety of society from unlawful internal threats and external threats or pressures. It involves both national and homeland security and law enforcement. Public Health the science of protecting and improving the health of people and their communities achieved by promoting healthy lifestyles, researching disease and injury prevention, health promotion and detecting, preventing and responding to infectious diseases. Rational choice a social science theory that crosses multiple disciplines but draws heavily on the theoretical foundations of psychology and economics. It assumes that humans are motivated by personal goals reflecting their preferences. They achieve their goals by a mindful and calculated process, whereby they review their goals against the means of attaining them, and decide the best way to proceed in order to optimize the odds of success relative the odds of failing and make decisions accordingly. Rational Choice theory has been applied to individuals, groups, organizations and nation states. Realism the classic international relations theory that argues that the international system is anarchic; there is no actor above states capable of regulating their interactions; therefore, states must arrive at relations with other states on their own, rather than having it dictated to them by some higher controlling body. Adding to this anarchy is the idea that the international system exists in a state of constant antagonism. Since there is no higher controlling body, states are the most important actors in the international system. All states within the system are unitary, rational actors that tend to pursue self-interest and strive to attain as many resources as possible. Subdisciplines of realism include neorealism and rational choice. Recovery encompasses both short-term and long-term efforts for the rebuilding and revitalization of affected communities. Recovery planning builds stakeholder partnerships that lead to community restoration and future sustainability and resiliency. Referent Organizations centralized organization that formalizes institutions, establishes ground rules for membership and consensus building, and organizes the systematic mobilization of resources. Referent organizations are featured in IMCs. See Interagency Mechanism for Collaboration. Regime sets of implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules and decision-making procedures around which actors’ expectations converge in a given area of international concern that require collective action. Glossary xxxi Resilience as defined in PPD-21, is “the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions…[it] includes the ability to withstand and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents”. Resilient infrastructure assets, systems and networks must also be robust, agile and adaptable. Mitigation, response and recovery activities contribute to strengthening critical infrastructure resilience. Response embodies the actions taken in the immediate aftermath of an incident to save and sustain lives, meet basic human needs and reduce the loss of property and the effect on critical infrastructure and the environment. Following an incident, response operations reduce the physical, psychological, social and economic effects of an incident. Risk in a risk management context, risk the potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an incident, event or occurrence, as determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences. In the context of the assessment of climate impacts, the term risk is often used to refer to the potential for adverse consequences of a climate-related hazard, or of adaptation or mitigation responses to such a hazard, on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, ecosystems and species, economic, social and cultural assets, services (including ecosystem services) and infrastructure. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability (of the affected system), its exposure over time (to the hazard), as well as the (climate-related) hazard and the likelihood of its occurrence. Risk Assessment the product or process which collects information and assigns values to risks for the purpose of informing priorities, developing or comparing courses of action, and informing decision-making. Risk Control the deliberate action taken to reduce the potential for harm or maintain it at an acceptable level. Risk Management process of identifying, analyzing, assessing and communicating risk and accepting, avoiding, transferring or controlling it to an acceptable level considering associated costs and benefits of any actions taken. Risk Perception the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. Routine Activity a criminology theory that focuses on criminal events and activities rather than focusing on the offender or crime setting. Under routine activity theory, crimes require the convergence of a motivated offender, a suitable target (victim), and needs to take place in circumstances where the target lacks protection of a capable guardian. Prevention consists of actions that reduce risk from human-caused incidents, primarily terrorism. Protection reduces or eliminates a threat to people, property and the environment. Primarily focused on adversarial incidents, the protection of critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) is vital to local jurisdictions, national security, public health and safety and economic vitality. Salafi jihadism movement which serves as the ideological base of most Sunni Islamic terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda, ISIS and their affiliated groups. Salafi movements contend that only by returning to the way of life at the time of the prophet may Muslims once again experience a golden age. Salafi jihadists promote the use of violence to achieve this goal. Situational Crime Prevention a crime prevention concept that attempts to analyze specific incidents and activities—associated with a crime, rather than focus on xxxii Glossary offenders or their motivations. The context of the crime is more important than the offender or their motivation. If it is more difficult to carry out a crime, it increases the risk the offender takes by attempting the crime. Higher risk reduces the rewards (or the benefits) the offender expects to receive by committing the crime as well as the motivation used to justify their criminal action. Social Identity a theory that attempts to explain how individuals self-ascribed significance attached to the social groups or communities to which one belongs and with which one interacts directly, along with the feelings associated with participation in these groups’ activities. Social Movement a group of people with a common ideology who try together to achieve certain general goals and some level of social or political change through collective action. Social Network Analysis an application of social network theory that analyzes network nodes to understand who anything from networks, people and even things like events are linked. It looks at not only the inextricable links that bond together religious, familial or cultural groups but also the fluid and dynamic groupings that are more prevalent in a global society where transience and rootlessness in both the physical and digital world. Social Network Theory a social science theory that crosses multiple disciplines in fields as diverse as psychology to economics. It seeks to explain the factors contrite to the formation, cohesion, and continuation of links between individuals and groups that form networks. Network are examined in terms of “nodes”, which are tightly coupled groups of people that coalescence around complex-yet understandable relationships. Sustainable Development Goals the current set of 17 global goals for development for all countries established by the United Nations through a participatory process and elaborated in the 2030 UN Agenda for Sustainable Development which includes ending poverty and hunger; ensuring health and well-being, education, gender equality, clean water and energy, and decent work; building and ensuring resilient and sustainable infrastructure, cities and consumption; reducing inequalities; protecting land and water ecosystems; promoting peace, justice and partnerships; and taking urgent action on climate change. Target Hardening the crime prevention technique of employing security measures as a deterrence the use of alarms, barriers, gates, locks, fences or other security devices. It assumes that criminals are rational actors and would conduct a somewhat imaginary cost-benefit analyst on a given target beforehand to see if they will be able to successfully commit their crime. If a target that has been hardened it would be unattractive to a criminal. Terrorism there is no universally accepted definition of terrorism but for the purpose of this text terrorism will be defined as the use or the threat of violence or other destructive behavior by a non-state actor to inciting fear or intimate a population with the goal of achieving some level of social or political change. Theory a systematic and evidence-based approach to a processes or phenomena, and the presumed relationships between and among components of the process or phenomenon. Threat a natural or man-made occurrence, individual, entity or action that has or indicates the potential to harm life, information, operations, the environment and/or property. Glossary xxxiii Threat Assessment product or process of identifying or evaluating entities, actions or occurrences, whether natural or man-made, that have or indicate the potential to harm life, information, operations and/or property. Transgovernmentalism an emerging international relations theory that contends that globalization has created an environment traditional means of international interaction, like diplomacy and treaties, seem less effective in dealing with today’s threats to international security as may be too slow and cumbersome to combat certain problems in a globalized world as they were in dealing with past threats. Today’s threats require the development of relationships between similar agencies across governments, rather than dealing exclusively through foreign ministries. Governments operate internationally through transgovernmental networks comprised of government officials from various nations, forming both formal and informal global networks that reach out to their foreign counterparts to help address the problems that arise when national actors or issues spill beyond their borders. Transgovernmental Network network comprised of government officials from various nations, forming both formal and informal global networks that reach out to their foreign counterparts to help address the problems that arise when national actors or issues spill beyond a nation’s borders. Transnational Advocacy Networks (TANs) networks are constructed of “nodes” of individuals or groups which utilize modern technology to connect with other “nodes” around the globe who share their ideals or beliefs. Through their collective action, the nodes of the network can turn their attention to problems and issues of a global scale. Uncertainty (in science) the degree to which a calculated, estimated or observed value may deviate from the true value. Uncertainty is the state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, incomplete understanding of critical processes, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the UNFCCC was adopted in May 1992 and opened for signature at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. It entered into force in March 1994 and as of May 2018 had 197 Parties (196 States and the European Union). The Convention’s ultimate objective is the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. The provisions of the Convention are pursued and implemented by two treaties: the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. Unity of effort refers to organizations working together collaboratively. Vulnerability the qualitative or quantitative expression of the level to which an entity, asset, system, network or geographic area is susceptible to harm when it experiences a hazard. Vulnerability Assessment product or process of identifying physical features or operational attributes that render an entity, asset, system, network or geographic area susceptible or exposed to hazards. xxxiv Glossary Wave Theory (of terrorism) a theory that contends terrorism ebb and flow in increments of 40-year iterations. The different “waves” are products of the conditions and climate of the times in which they occur; driven by myriad factors that compel terroristic actors to heed the clarion call of violence in action around a particular ideology. Westphalian Sovereignty the assumption of international law that a nation state has sovereignty over its land and internal affairs, to the exclusion of all external powers, on the principle of non-interference in another country’s internal affairs, and that each state is equal in the eye of international law. Note 1 This glossary draws on terms and definitions from the US DHS Lexicon (2010) retrieved at: https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/dhs-risk-lexicon-2010_0.pdf, the IPCC Glossary (2018) Retrieved At: Https://Www.Ipcc.Ch/Site/Assets/Uploads/2018/11/ Sr15_Glossary.Pdf, and the Guide To Emergency Management And Related Terms, Definitions, Concepts, Acronyms, Organizations, Programs, Guidance, Executive Orders & Legislation (2007) by Wayne Blanchard, retrieved at: https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/ docs/terms%20and%20definitions/terms%20and%20definitions.pdf 1 Introduction to security theory James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine and John Comiskey Description. Security is an elusive concept. It is dynamic, value-laden and complex. Ultimately it means different things to different people or governments and can even change in meaning over time to the same people or governments. Modern homeland security overlaps, but not entirely the notion of domestic, national and international security, which necessitates a broad integrated effort at all levels of government, including the private sector, as well as an interagency collaborative capacity. Complicating the structure and operation of homeland security is the terrific variation in security models and laws that are held by our allies internationally. Ultimately, “being secure” is an end state that all national security models pursue. How best to secure the US nation from threats foreign and domestic, including natural threats and hazards from climate change to landslides consumes much of the US federal government’s time and treasury and can be likened to a complex, adaptive system since the “problem set” that homeland security struggles to solve includes more wicked than tame problems. This chapter reviews the origins of theory, levels and models of theory, and will offer a brief overview of the nature of wicked problems. Upon successful completion of this chapter, students should be able to: 1. Describe what a theory is and how theory supports professional disciplines. 2. Distinguish between four levels of theory: grand theory, macro-theory, mesotheory and micro-theory. 3. Offer a working definition of homeland security. 4. Distinguish between wicked and tame problems. 5. Describe how individual disciplines contribute structure, strategy and theory to modern homeland security, thus creating a theoretical underlayment for a “grand theory of homeland security”. 1.1 Introduction The term homeland security first came into the American lexicon ten days after the September 11th terrorist attacks in 2001 when the U.S. President George W. Bush created the Office of Homeland Security. The office was created to “develop and coordinate the implementation of a comprehensive national strategy to secure the United States from terrorist threats or attacks”. (History.com Editors, 2019; White House, 2001). President Bush appointed former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge as inaugural director of the office the following month. The idea and concept of homeland security were further solidified with the passage of the Homeland 2 James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine and John Comiskey Security Act of 2002, which created the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as a cabinet-level federal department. However, both the term homeland security and the concept of a specific agency dedicated to preserving it predate the September 11 terrorist attacks. The U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century, also known as the Hart-Rudman Commission, under President Clinton, was established in 1998 to provide a comprehensive review of US national security requirements in the 21st century. The commission argued that the United States was facing a radically new security environment in which the threat of a mass casualty attack on the American homeland was real, and called for a “National Homeland Security Agency” to deal with this new (and mostly domestic-facing) threat environment (Roxborough, 2001). Over the last 18 years, we have witnessed an evolution in both the DHS and its role in preserving and protecting liberty and the free flow of people and commerce. It has grown into something much more than a single government agency. As the 2014 Quadrennial Homeland Security Review points out, providing for the safety and security of the American people from a variety of natural and man-made threats requires partnerships between federal departments and agencies; state, local, tribal and territorial governments; nongovernmental and private sector organizations; our foreign allies; and the American public (DHS, 2014). While the term “homeland security” is somewhat uniquely American, the underlying concepts, strategies and structures constituting the homeland security enterprise are not. Indeed, a Federal Department whose mission is squarely focused on a coordinated and seamless effort involving all levels of government to confront the complex and wicked threat environment of the 21st Century as outlined in the HartRudman Commission is not only logical, but present in most developed nations. After the events of September 11, 2001, the United States as well as several other peer nations especially within the Anglosphere, strategically restructured their government at the national level in order to be better situated to protect its populations. In a post “9/11” world, domestic security suddenly seemed more dynamic, asymmetric, transnational, complex and pernicious. In 2003, Public Safety Canada was created to “ensure coordination across all federal departments and agencies responsible for national security and the safety of Canadians” and included the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) in the Department. (Public Safety Canada, 2015). Since 2001, the United Kingdom has periodically restructured several of its security agencies to now include the UK Border Force, the UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) office and the Immigration Enforcement (IE) office all within the Home Office. In addition to the Home Office, there are other security and safety agencies such as HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services, National Counter Terrorism Security Office and UK Security Service (MI5). In 2013, the National Crime Agency (NCA) was established to combat organized crime; human, weapon and drug trafficking; cybercrime; and economic crime that goes across regional and international borders (Cozine, 2016). In December of 2017, Australia created the Department of Home Affairs with the responsibilities for immigration and customs border policy; national security and law enforcement policy; emergency management, including crisis management and disaster recovery; countering terrorism; cyber-security policy; countering foreign interference; critical infrastructure protection; and transportation security. Agencies within Home Affairs include the Criminal Intelligence Introduction to security theory 3 Commission, Australian Border Force, Australian Federal Police, AUSTRAC (the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre) and Australian Intelligence and Security Organizations (Home Affairs, 2019). Along with the development of federal “homeland security” organizations within the Anglosphere, a tremendous growth of homeland security academic programs at colleges and universities has occurred, particularly in the United States. As of 2019, the University Agency Partnership Program administered by the Naval Post Graduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security lists 460 homeland security-related academic programs, including programs at the Associate, Bachelor, Masters and Doctoral levels (UAPP, 2019). While some of these programs emerged from existing criminal justice or emergency management programs, others were built from the ground up drawing academic content from existing fields such as criminal justice, emergency management, political science, public administration and security studies to name but a few. Over the past decade and a half, homeland security programs have evolved core topics and curricula centered on all-hazard threats, critical infrastructure, critical thinking, collaboration, cyber security, emergency management, intelligence, law and policy, leadership, preparedness, risk management, strategy and terrorism (Comiskey, 2018). Another recent development in the maturation of homeland security as an academic discipline was the International Society for Preparedness, Resiliency, and Security (INSPRS) identification of nine knowledge domains, which should be part of undergraduate homeland security curricula. These include critical infrastructure and resilience, emergency management, human and environmental security, intelligence, law and policy, professionalism, risk management, strategic planning and terrorism. Knowledge domains refer to the knowledge, skills, abilities and behaviors that should be part of a discipline’s curricula (Ramsay & Renda-Tanali, 2018). Despite these steps and initiatives to move homeland security forward as an academic discipline, no grand theory or overarching framework of homeland security has evolved. As Comiskey (2018) points out, “homeland security academics as well as practitioners have an obligation to the evolving discipline to identify, develop, and test theories and methodologies that will prepare practitioners for the field and to address homeland security problems”. He continues, “they must introduce, explain, analyze, test, develop and generate theory and other methodologies that will grow and mature the field”. (Comiskey, 2018) A profession uses its underlying theory to establish best practices and legitimacy of practice. As knowledge evolves, theory evolves, and vice versa. It turns out that theory, though a critical underlayment to all disciplines, is not static. As in all disciplines, theory is both dynamic and foundational and continues to evolve as research, changes in technology, best practices, lessons learned all contribute to the body of knowledge of the field. Theory also subsequently serves as a guide for ongoing research and scientific inquiry. In short, theories are the pillars of any academic discipline, and ultimately, any profession. But what exactly is theory? 1.2 What is a theory? In everyday use, the word “theory” often means an untested hunch, or a guess without supporting evidence. However, for the academic, the scholar or the scientist, a theory has nearly the opposite meaning and is nearly always accompanied by observation and other data to support the relationships theorized. To these professionals, theory 4 James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine and John Comiskey is a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world that can incorporate laws, hypotheses and facts (American Museum of Natural History, 2005). A theory provides reasoning (or suspected logic) for why something may occur the way it does, or why things may be related the way they appear to be, or it may attempt to explain observed patterns in behavior. Theories appear from many sources with varying quantities (and quality) of evidence that reinforces an observed relationship. Some theories have little to no evidence, and seem mostly constituted by observation while others are supported by considerably more empirical evidence. Components of a definition of theory should include a set of assumptions, propositions or accepted facts that attempt to provide a plausible or rational explanation of cause-and-effect (causal) relationships among a group of observed phenomena. One of the major functions of a theory is to provide an answer to the question “why?”. Asking “why?” is central to our need to understand how the world works, to increase our knowledge of a subject area or to predict what might happen next, or to realign thoughts and opinions. Asking “why?”, therefore, is an essential skill for anybody who wants to learn and develop and grow. Defining “theory”, therefore, must consider the “why?” question. But a more complete theory is necessarily deeper than merely asking “why?”. A more robust theory also includes an attempt to explain why and so to provide understanding. A theory is not just “any” explanation—a theory comes into being when a series of ideas or observations come to be held and accepted by a wider community of people as being factual. Moreover, a theory is not only factually based, but how we understand and provide explanations about real-world phenomena also involves one’s cultural background as well as one’s worldview. What then is a theory? Put simply, a theory not only is a logical attempt to explain observed phenomena and known facts; it also allows scientists to make predictions of what they should expect to observe were their theory true. In this sense, theories are testable. New evidence should be compatible with a theory. If it is not, the theory is refined or rejected. A theory can never be considered wholly true. Indeed, a well-evidenced theory that is widely considered factual at a given point in time may, in the future, need to be modified upon the discovery of new evidence. Similarly, a theory with little supporting evidence may, in time, be corroborated by evidence gained through the development of new technologies and research techniques. In this way, theories can be modified or amended over time as understanding of the subject matter evolves, as technologies are invented that can gather better evidence, or as repeated application of the theory may reveal confirming or disconfirming evidence. Just as no theory can ever be considered pure fact, no theory can likewise be completely discredited even if there is an overwhelming amount of opposing physical evidence. In fact, competing theories can complement each other or conflict with each other. This is healthy, encourages critical analysis, supports the scientific method and leads eventually, to a more robust and in depth understanding of each theory and the evidence/research that supports it. The longer the central elements of a theory hold—the more observations it predicts, the more tests it passes, the more facts it explains—the stronger the theory. For example, Darwin’s theory of evolution explains why so many plants and animals—some very similar and some very different—exist on Earth now and in the past, as revealed by the fossil record. Many advances in science—the development of genetics after Darwin’s death, for example—have greatly enhanced evolutionary thinking. Yet even with these new advances, the theory of evolution persists today, much as Darwin first described Introduction to security theory 5 it, and is universally accepted by scientists as valid (American Museum of Natural History, 2005; Darwin, 1859). 1.3 The goal of theory development and the rise of homeland security theory Theories are developed for many reasons. A common goal of theory development is, for example, to better predict future events. Understanding how certain businesses tend to react under certain circumstances can, for example, lead to more successful investment strategies. However, we also point out that the goal of theory development is not always the same and the type of theory developed often has its origins in the initial question of “why?” For instance, in an attempt to better understand what might constitute appropriate content in academic homeland security curricula, Comiskey (2018) identified five types of theory widely utilized in homeland security studies as an academic discipline; descriptive theory, explanatory theory, normative theory and predictive theory, as well as the inductive process referred to as grounded theory. Descriptive theory describes or classifies specific dimensions or characteristics of individuals, groups, situations or events by summarizing the commonalities found in discrete observations (Godfrey-Smith, 2003; Joas & Knobol, 2009). Explanatory theory predicts precise or causative relationships between dimensions or characteristics of phenomena or differences between groups (Fawcett & Downes, 1986; Turner, 2017). Normative theories make value judgments; they prescribe what should be (Godfrey-Smith, 2003; Sjoberg & Nett, 1968). Predictive theory predicts outcomes (Betts, 1982; Bookstaber, 2017). Last, grounded theory is the product of inductive inquiries from which general theories of processes, actions or interactions are derived (Glaser, 1967). Just as the “why?” is important to theory development, “what” is being studied, or the level of analysis of the study, also plays an equally important role. Combining the “why”, with the “what” leads to four super-ordinate levels of theory: grand theory, macro-theory, meso-theory and micro-theory. Grand theory attempts an overall explanation of social life, history or human experience. Grand theory also provides a general framework for many smaller theories (Ek & Tesfahuney, 2011; Mills, 1959; Skinner, 1985). Macro-level theories explain larger social systems, processes and institutions. Meso-, or midlevel theories, are less ambitious than their macro-level counterparts, tend to be less abstract while they emphasize midscale processes and interactions, and as the name implies, often links macro and micro theories (Creswell, 2009). Microlevel theories provide explanations of smaller social groups, systems, processes and institutions (Ougaard, 2013). Understanding the origins and types of theory is helpful when trying to understand the discipline of homeland security, or at least in our attempt to apply a theoretical description of it. In fact, using theory to better explain homeland security is rather important to the overall health and safety of the nation. Consider that a good theory of homeland security would enhance our ability to be prepared for pandemics, hurricanes or terrorist attacks. Indeed, a robust theory of homeland security would improve how we teach the next generation of practitioners and ultimately is key to our national preparedness and our national security. In addition, this complexity begets the question security studies academics have pondered since the advent of the first academic degree programs; that is, what do we teach students of homeland security and why? However, 6 James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine and John Comiskey it is at this point that our understanding of homeland security needs to be checked. Like medicine and engineering, homeland security is actually more complex than one might think at first blush. In practice, homeland security acts more like a discipline of disciplines, or a meta-discipline (Ramsay, 2012; Ramsay & Renda-Tanali, 2018). In other words, modern homeland security is component of several extant disciplines including criminal justice, emergency management, cybersecurity, risk management, preparedness, resilience, communication, strategy and decision-making, intelligence and terrorism to name a few. From the perspective of theory development, the dilemma this poses is whether it is possible to develop a theory of a meta-discipline? When attempting to consider a “theory of homeland security”, it is immediately obvious that theory typology and levels of analysis are central to this task. To start, let us explore the complexity of the concept of “security”. The term “security” derives from the Latin word securitas whose root is securus meaning “without care”. Further, security has been ascribed various definitions within academic literature. Manunta (1999) has defined security as a “basic need”. Another view of security offered by Fischer and Green (2004) is that it “implies a stable, relatively predictable environment in which an individual or group may pursue its ends without disruption or harm and without fear of disturbance or injury”. Security is often tied to feelings of safety as indicated in a hierarchy of needs as proposed by Maslow. Security has been classified as the second-most important need for all humans, trailing only the physiological necessities such as food, water and shelter (McLeod, 2007). Security is a combination of material circumstances and the physiological state produced by those circumstances. Security is as much about peace of mind, order and stability as it is about physical wellbeing (Caldwell & Williams, 2016). Wolfers’ (2011) work addresses security as a value, defining security as the absence of threats to acquired values, or the fear that those values will be under threat. These are but a few of the many definitions of security found in the academic literature. For our purposes a simple definition of security is as a condition or state of being free from a threat of harm. Security it seems, in its most basic form covers a broad terrain and implies several levels. On one extreme it is an individual’s perception of well-being when one is free from threats to one’s welfare. Yet, on the other extreme, security can imply a condition where either a nation or even the international community is stable and free of conflict. The perspective that security subsumes a broad array of levels from individual well-being to global security mirrors the concept of the Homeland Security Enterprise. As suggested above, the Homeland Security Enterprise concept includes a broad and expansive effort, across several levels of government and the private sector, to provide for the safety and security of the American people from a variety of natural and man-made threats. Specifically, such an effort requires partnerships between federal departments and agencies; state, local, tribal and territorial governments; nongovernmental and private sector organizations; our foreign allies; and the American public (DHS, 2014). Clearly, this is the case if security concerns encompass individual, the international system, and several levels of security in between. As such, it is readily apparent that all four levels of theory; grand theory, macro-theory, meso-theory and micro-theory are important to the development of homeland security theory. Likewise, as homeland security programs have evolved core topics and curricula centered on all-hazard threats, critical infrastructure, critical thinking, collaboration, cyber security, emergency management, intelligence, Introduction to security theory 7 law and policy, public health, leadership, preparedness, risk management, strategy and terrorism; the diversity of these topics means that descriptive theory, explanatory theory, normative theory and predictive theory will be equally important in the future development of homeland security theory. Consequently, the theories mentioned here will serve as pillars on which a distinct homeland security theory will begin to be built. As we’ve discussed, a theory is critical to a discipline’s ability to test, evaluate and advance its operations or strategies. What aids theory development is the degree to which the concept can be defined. After all, it seems inherently difficult to develop a theory around something that cannot be defined. Toward this end, the next section will offer a working definition of homeland security and the nature of the problems it attempts to manage. 1.4 Wicked vs. tame problems and the homeland security problem set A decision science perspective would describe the challenges that confront the Homeland Security enterprise as wicked problems. Wicked problems are those that exhibit the following characteristics: the solution depends on how the problem is framed; the problem can change in response to an attempted solution; stakeholders vary considerably in how they define and understand the problem or what a solution would be; suspended judgment and iteration are key in resolving the problem; the constraints and resources available to address the problem change over time; and the problem is never (totally) solved—that is wicked problems are better managed than solved.1 The primary difference between wicked problems and their counterparts, tame problems, is that although tame problems can be complex (i.e., building a jet engine), there is typically broad agreement on the solution pathway, benchmarks of success and general agreement on what the end state should be. Wicked problems do not tend share these characteristics. For example, classic issues homeland security grapples with that we would classify as wicked include climate change, immigration and border security, pandemic preparedness, asymmetric violent extremism and cybersecurity. Herein lies the difficult with a precise definition of what homeland security is, and logically, what it is not. The next section will promote a working definition of homeland security. 1.4.1 A working definition for homeland security It seems logical that to develop a theory of something, we would first need to define it. Several have attempted robust definitions of homeland security (Bellavita, 2008, 2011; Ramsay, 2013; Ramsay & O’Sullivan, 2013; Ramsay & Renda-Tanali, 2018). The difficulty in devising a simple definition is that homeland security is a conceptual framework that we suspect contains at least three generic, primary characteristics: 1. Homeland security is complex. That is, it is multifaceted and multidimensional and interdisciplinary—it is a composite system of systems, which even in its simplest conceptions (as primarily terrorism-focused) involves multiple levels and realms, from local to international, and a diversity of institutions, societies and demographics. 2. Homeland security is dynamic. As both concept and practice and given the evolving nature of possible threats (including the perceptions of and responses 8 James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine and John Comiskey to those threats), what is and is not homeland security can itself be expected to change in concept, as well as in application over time. 3. Homeland security is value laden. That is, homeland security can be expected to hold different meaning to different constituents or stakeholders. In order to begin to devise a grand theoretical framework for homeland security, we offer a broad working definition of homeland security. We offer this with the caveat that it is neither an all-inclusive nor perfect definition, and that homeland security will in many regards always be a contested term. But by having a working definition, we have a clearer path toward establishing of a working theory of homeland security; that is, a theory that needs to be inclusive of the range of policy, law, practice, operations, strategies, structures and objectives that collectively comprise the homeland security enterprise. Thus, as follows: Homeland Security2 may be described as risk-based, multidimensional (or interdisciplinary) complex adaptive system3 which includes an integrated national effort by all levels of government – federal, state, local and tribal – as well robust domestic and international partnerships between the public and private sectors and nongovernmental organizations to protect the people, property, the environment and territories of the United States from natural, accidental, and unconventional (nonmilitary) manmade threats and hazards in order to defend liberty and ensure the free flow of people and commerce. The above definition offers a robust operationalization of the homeland security concept, and would include the relative contributions of several subdimensions, from academic to applied, among them (not a comprehensive, but also a working, list—for the sake of framing the broader argument): public health, science and technology, environmental systems and security, law and policy, pubic administration, systems engineering, organizational and leadership theory, criminal justice, critical infrastructure protection, economic analysis, public opinion and social psychology (from a variety of social science perspectives), politics4 and international relations, intelligence analysis, counterterrorism and emergency management. With a working definition in mind, we are ready to consider how a “theory of homeland security” might be constituted. 1.5 A theory of homeland security? As alluded to above, the search for a “grand theory of homeland security” is vexed by its expansive nature, its operational dependencies and the types of problems the homeland security enterprise seeks to resolve. Due to the wicked nature of the homeland security problem set, some have characterized the nature of homeland security as a meta-discipline, or a discipline of disciplines with different functions and specialties that range from counter terrorism to national security, border security to intelligence and critical infrastructure protection to environmental and human security (Church, 2010; Ramsay, 2012; Ramsay & Renda-Tanali, 2018; Simon, 2009). That is, homeland security as academic discipline is by its nature, inherently interdisciplinary. Indeed, a recent study by Comiskey (2015) found that that the majority of all collegiate homeland security curricula in the United States were categorized as either multidisciplinary or interdisciplinary drawing their content from a variety of other disciplines further corroborating homeland security’s interdisciplinary nature. Though such a nature complicates Introduction to security theory 9 our search for a theory of homeland security, it seems rather common for emergent academic disciplines to “borrow” content and theory from other disciplines. Consider the growth of medicine. Medicine today is a composite of many subdisciplines such as chemistry, physics, anatomy, physiology, toxicology, biochemistry, psychology and epidemiology, to name a few. As research has supported the practice of medicine, theories of medicine have improved from disbalances of humors in ancient Greece, to germ theory to the modern use of pharmaceuticals or the use of positron emission tomography (PET). Likewise, interdisciplinarity is an important characteristic of homeland security in terms of theory development because it supports the very goals of the kind of research that informs the discipline. For instance, the purpose of interdisciplinary research is not merely to integrate information, but to provide a more comprehensive collection of information from different fields in order to optimize understanding, application or prediction. Consequently, interdisciplinary research explicitly attempts to integrate the plurality of information (Pohl, Truffeer, & Hadron, 2017). Whether labeled interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary or a meta-discipline, it is clear that several more established academic disciplines have an impact on the intellectual and operational aspects of modern homeland security, and as such, confirming that it is an integrated academic discipline. That is, we assert that an overall theory of homeland security can be constructed by leveraging its interdisciplinary nature. As such, we attempt to establish a grand theory of homeland security as the composite of theories of its component parts. Further, components of the practice, organization or strategy of homeland security would seem to be critical to the formation of an overall or grand theory. Hence, by establishing how the component disciplines of homeland security support either the strategy, the operations or the structural organization of the homeland security enterprise, we approach a grand theory of homeland security as the integrated set of theories of its component disciplines. For instance, homeland security is largely based on law. By understanding the theory of law, how law supports operations, tactics, strategy and structure of domestic security (i.e., its agencies, operations, practices, policies), we discover a component of the larger whole, that is, overall homeland security theory. The subsequent chapters of this text will examine how the component disciplines of homeland security support its operations, strategies, tactics and structure. The theories described in this text may serve to guide academic and practitioners when researching homeland security problems, issues and concepts. It is our hope that such future research and subsequent inductive inquiries will lead to the development of a grounded theory of homeland security. From this, it would be possible to derive more general theories of processes, actions, or interactions of homeland security that in turn inform academic curricula that in turn supports national workforce development, policy development and the identification of best practices. Last, were such a grand theory to evolve and mature, we expect for example that our nation’s ability to anticipate disasters, develop resilience or avert violent extremism would improve, thus defending liberty and enhancing the safety and security of the nation and its people. 1.6 Organization and overview of this text Including this introduction, this text is organized into 14 chapters. Chapters 2-14 each discusses a core discipline upon which the modern profession of homeland security draws expertise that supports its organization, structure, strategy or operations. Each 10 James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine and John Comiskey chapter describes how that discipline is organized and how its own theoretical underpinnings directly impact aspects of the practice of homeland security. The following synopses briefly overview each of the remaining chapters. Chapter 2. Risk and the Homeland Security Enterprise by Brian Harte. The dynamism and complexity of the homeland security environment requires the use of a variety of risk frameworks, models and theoretical applications to effectively assess both current and future threats, risks and vulnerabilities. Moreover, the need for comprehensive resiliency building and risk management strategies are also apparent within this environment. The primary goal of this chapter is to illustrate how risk and risk management work and lie at the heart of modern homeland security practice and strategy. Chapter 3. The Sociology of Security by Terrence O’Sullivan. Security is often understood as a perception of reality by individuals, social groups and institutions. Whether one’s perspective is from that of a government and adviser or a member of society, security is a perception of the social world which has profound consequences for the way we live our daily lives. A better understanding of the sociology of security helps us formulate theory, strategy and operations. Chapter 4. Crime and Security Chelsea Binns. Criminology, like homeland security, initially drew its theoretical foundations from other disciplines. Now, criminology has its own theoretical base, much of which is in turn contributing to the emerging theory in homeland security. This is particularly true of theories related to deterrence and crime prevention. This chapter will examine some of these theories and how they are specifically applicable to deal with security threats and hazards faced by security professionals. Case studies will be used to demonstrate how these theories have been applied in the real world. Chapter 5. Terrorism: Origins, Ideologies and Goals by Kyle McDonnell and Keith Cozine. It is imperative that security policy makers, practitioners and researchers understand the political, historical and social theoretical underpinnings of international and domestic terrorism. While there is no universally accepted definition of terrorism, this chapter will nonetheless attempt to define terrorism. Next, it will examine the various social theories of terrorism and how they contribute to the development of the different types of terrorism. Finally, the chapter will explore how these theories might help develop an estimation of what the terrorism will look like in the future so that effect policy and strategies to counter terrorism can be developed. Chapter 6. Interagency Collaborative Capacity by John Comiskey. Homeland security draws on expertise and requires working relationships with dozens of other agencies and organizations. When one considers the origins of terrorism, for example, one realizes that to understand and defeat terrorism requires expertise from sociologists, the legal and law enforcement communities, the intelligence community, the military as well as the State Department to name a few. Interagency collaborative capacity (ICC) theory provides a practical framework for homeland security policy makers and practitioners to cooperate, coordinate and collaborate effectively to protect the Nation. This chapter will trace homeland security’s interagency collaboration imperative to the post-World War II U.S. security and intergovernmental relations landscape. The chapter will then describe the post-9/11 and post-Hurricane Katrina threat landscape and the Introduction to security theory 11 multiple interagency partnerships and processes that developed as a result. It will describe interagency initiatives that were brought about by new challenges such as catastrophic natural disasters, industrial accidents and cyber vulnerabilities. The chapter will illuminate interagency partnerships and initiatives that exemplify ICC’s efficiencies and effectiveness. Chapter 7. Emergency Management and Theories of Prevention, Response and Recovery by Irmak Renda-Tanali. The theory of being “secure nation” does not mean that adverse events never occur. Indeed, the hallmark of a secure nation is indeed the resilience and preparedness capabilities of a nation, and its ability to withstand and recover from adverse events. Hence, existing theories from both emergency management and security to describe the degree to which the United States is prepared for, can prevent, respond to and recover from adverse events including acts of mankind (i.e., terrorism, violent crime) or of Mother Nature (i.e., weather-related challenges, natural disasters, climate change). As a result, the United States has developed a national preparedness goal. The field of emergency management plays a critical role in supporting and sustaining a national workforce capable of accomplishing the national preparedness goal. This chapter will provide a history of the law and policy that gave rise to and that supports the emergency management discipline. It will also provide a basis for including emergency management into a more inclusive concept of human security and as a necessary basis for a more complete model of national security. Chapter 8. Global Governance and The Relationships Between Nations by Keith Cozine. International Relations theory explains why nations do or do not cooperate with other to address issue that is transnational in nature. Global governance theory tries to explain the mechanisms used to facilitate this cooperation. The chapter will first define global governance in terms of the concept of governance in the absence of government and how this approach is used to address the natural and man-made security threats faces today. Key theories and concepts explored in the chapter include the theory of the State, Anarchy, Multilateralism, hard and soft law, international norms, regime theory and network theory. Various tools of global governance will be discussed in terms of how they are used to combat various natural and man-made threats to security. Chapter 9. Intelligence and Theory of Preventive Action by Erik Dahl. Intelligence in its most basic definition is about providing decision makers with knowledge or foreknowledge of the world around them. Good intelligence is essential to developing policies and strategies to deal with the wide range of threats and hazards faced by security professional today. Theories of intelligence and its use date back to the fifth century BCE and Sun Tzu’s Art of War. While Tzu’s theory focused primarily on intelligence for military conquest, uses for intelligence has expanded overtime so too have theories on intelligence and its use. This chapter examines these theories and their applications in today’s diverse threat environment Chapter 10. Human and Environmental Security Theory by James Ramsay and Terrence O’Sullivan. This chapter describes some of the various dimensions of human security—a highly complex system of “wicked problems”, and the link to an environmental security mandate, in the face of climate disruption. The 12 James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine and John Comiskey all-encompassing climate security magnifies the need to use human security as a strategic planning priority, integrated across the more traditional notions of national and homeland security. Chapter 11. Public Health as a Critical Infrastructure by Terrence O’Sullivan and James Ramsay. One of the Nation’s 16 Critical Infrastructure Sectors, the Healthcare and Public Health Sector protects the Nation from hazards such as terrorism, infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters. Public health can proxy several challenges posed by large complex and adaptive systems that comprise the many sectors of our nation’s economy. For example, the public health sector exemplifies the need for public–private partnerships, cybersecurity, civil liberties, privacy and international relations and the implications of climate change on security. From a threat intelligence perspective, public health includes both pandemics (such as the current COVID-19 pandemic) and epidemics as significant threats to liberty, and the free flow of people and commerce making public health an integral component of homeland security theory. Chapter 12. Law, Policy and Domestic Security by Michael McDaniel. At the end of the day, homeland security is a discipline based on law and policy. This chapter will provide an overview of key legal, policy and ethical issues and the legal and policy bases to modern Homeland Security. The chapter will examine legal concepts regarding constitutional rights of individuals, the legal process, access to courts, the law(s) of war and national security principles as they relate to homeland security legislation and policy initiatives. Legal principles of due process, habeas corpus, search and seizure, compulsory process and international agreements are explored in greater depth. The law of war will be examined in the context of preemptive war and the current National Security Strategy, as well as issues involving the status of combatants and detention. Chapter 13. Cybersecurity Policy and Theory by Maeve Dion. Both modern lifestyles and modern concepts of national security are dependent on a safe, stable and resilient cyberspace. However, to create and sustain a safe and secure cyberspace is itself a wicked problem as the threat environment is dynamic, complex and policy responses untested and value laden. This chapter will provide a survey of the broad and emergent field of cybersecurity and information assurance and how it is critical to preparedness and resilience of modern governments and private industry. Specifically, topics will include a definition of information security, the concept of threat vectors, offensive and defense policies and strategies, ethical and legal issues that surround the practice environment, risk management strategies planning and information security technology. Chapter 14. Technology—Adaptation, Management and Application by Michael Larrañaga and Patrick Smith. Technological advances are shaping the human experience at an exponential rate. There are a few theories, frameworks and models attempting to address technology, which tend to be associated with the disciplines of science and technology and communication studies. The theories attempt to address the relationship between technology and society and prompt questions about agency, determinism/autonomy and teleonomy. Homeland security professionals are charged with preventing terrorism, securing the Nation’s borders, enforcing and administering immigration laws, safeguarding and Introduction to security theory 13 securing cyberspace and ensuring resilience to disasters. Each of these mission spaces is impacted by new and emerging technologies. This chapter examines a multitude of existing and emerging technological theories, frameworks and models and their applications in the homeland security ecosystem. 1.7 Summary and conclusions This chapter discussed the nature of “theory” and presented several types of theories and how they might be used in social science research. Among these was the notion of a “grand theory”. Grand theories attempt to provide an overall explanation of social life, history or human experience. In addition, a grand theory also provides a general framework for many smaller theories—a key aspect we leveraged in order to accommodate a “theory” of homeland security. Supporting the use of a grand theoretical framework regarding homeland security, we described (and characterized) the homeland security discipline as a “discipline of disciplines” or “meta-discipline”; hence, any theory that would envelop the gestalt the homeland security enterprise would need to accommodate the breadth inherent in the component parts, or pillars, that constitute the strategies, operations and structure of the homeland security discipline. Toward this end, each chapter described above represents a pillar or contributing discipline of homeland security. Collectively, in this way, “homeland security theory” is a composite of the theoretical foundations of its disciplines that contribute to the operations, strategies and institutional structures of the homeland security enterprise. Just as all theories evolve in the presence of new research, best practices and improvements in technology, so will a grand theory of homeland security evolve as new revelations of our understanding of public health, terrorism, crime, emergency management arise, or as other disciplines contribute to the strategies, operations or even structures of the enterprise, or as improvements in technology and cybersecurity evolve. This evolution is healthy, appropriate and even expected given the wicked nature of the homeland security problem set. We hope you enjoy and benefit from this text. Notes 1. A full discussion of wicked and tame problems is beyond the scope of this chapter. Interested readers should see: Rittel and Webber (1973). Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Science, 4, 155–169; and Wicked Problems by T. Ritchey (2011), Swedish Morphological Society, Springer Publications, VI, ISBN 978-3-642-19653-9. 2. Many have commented as Bellavita that even the term “homeland security”, can have multiple meanings to different constituents; see for example: Bellavita, Christopher. (2008). Changing homeland security: What is homeland security? Homeland Security Affairs, 4(2). http://www.hsaj.org/?article=4.2.1. Hence the authors here conclude that given the institutional reality of the Department of Homeland Security, for the time being we are likely stuck with the name. 3. Complex adaptive systems are systems “… in which large networks of components with no central control and simple rules of operation give rise to complex collective behavior, sophisticated information processing, and adaptation via learning or evolution”. Mitchell (2009). Complexity: A guided tour (p. 13). USA: Oxford University Press. 4. Up to and including political ideology, which is prominent in critical current U.S. political debates about the appropriate role of government in providing public goods, from human security (social welfare safety nets, critical infrastructure and disaster response) to national (and homeland-) security priorities. 14 James D. Ramsay, Keith Cozine and John Comiskey References American Museum of Natural History. (2005). Darwin. Available at: https://www.amnh.org/ exhibitions/darwin Bellavita, Christopher. (2008). Changing homeland security: What is homeland security? Homeland Security Affairs, 4(2). Available at: http://www.hsaj.org/?article = 4.2.1 (accessed February 4, 2020). Bellavita, Christopher. (2011). Changing homeland security: In 2010 was homeland security useful? Homeland Security Affairs Journal, 6(1). Betts, R. K. (1982). Surprise attack. Washington, DC: Brookings Institute Press. Bookstaber, R. (2017). 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Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service. Rich, R. (2013, November 22). The great recession. Federal Reserve History. https://www .federalreservehistory.org/essays/great_recession_of_200709 Rogers, E. M. (1962). Diffusion of innovations. New York, NY: Free Press of Glencoe. Ryan, B., & Gross, N. T. (1943). The diffusion of hybrid seed corn. Rural Sociology, 8(1). Silver, S. (2018, June 29). The story of the original iPhone that nobody thought was possible. Apple Insider. https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/06/29/the-story-of-the-original-iphone-thatnobody-thought-was-possible Sinclair, J. K., & Vogus, C. E. (2011). Adoption of social networking sites: An exploratory adaptive structuration perspective for global organizations. Information Technology Management, 12, 293–314. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10799-011-00865 Toffler, A. (1970). Future shocks. New York, NY: Random. United States v. Merrell. (2016). 842, F.3d 577 (8th Cir, 2016). https://scholar.google.com/ scholar_case?case=3974630246904000623&hl=en&as_sdt=6,33&as_vis=1 Venkatesh, V. &Bala, H. (2008). Technology acceptance model three and a research agenda on interventions. Decision Science, 39(2), 273–312. Venkatesh, V., & Davis, F. D. (2000). A theoretical extension of the technology acceptance model: Four longitudinal field studies. Management Science, 46(2), 186–204. Venkatesh, V., Morris, M. G., Davis, F. D., & Davis, G. B. (2003). User acceptance of information technology: Toward a unified view. MIS Quarterly, 27, 425–478. Ward, M. (2020, March 27). Tesla, Apple, and Ford are stepping up to address global shortages of ventilators, hand sanitizer, face masks, and gowns. Here’s a running list of companies helping out. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-companieshelping-meet-shortages-of-ventilators-gowns-masks-hand-sanitizer-healthcare White House. (2018). National cybersecurity strategy of the United States. Washington, DC: Author. White House. (2020). Proclamation on declaring a national emergency concerning the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. Washington, DC: Author. Notes 1. Source: COSO Model for Internal Controls Based Upon the Enterprise Risk Management Integrated Framework Model Developed by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission by permission. 1. See, for instance, Souad Mekhennet (2020), “Far right and radical Islamist groups are exploiting coronavirus turmoil”, Washington Post (April 10, 2020). 2. For a look at actual events and perspectives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, see 2019 National Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA): Overview and Methodology (FEMA, 2019). 3. See Chapter 11 in this volume, on Public Health Security, for discussion of the coronavirus/COVID pandemic and its implications for homeland security. 4. “In a gig economy, temporary, flexible jobs are commonplace and companies tend toward hiring independent contractors and freelancers instead of full-time employees. A gig economy undermines the traditional economy of full-time workers who rarely change positions and instead focus on a lifetime career” (Chappelow, 2019). One example of this would be Uber and Lyft drivers. 5. Cognition is “the mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought, experience, and the senses”. Oxford Dictionary www.oxforddictionaries.com. 6. The Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan. U.S. State Department (2019). https://history. state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/truman. 7. And then of course the startling dramatic impact of the 2020 COVID pandemic, the full impact of which is yet to be determined. 8. The City of San Francisco passed an ordinance in 2019 banning future facial recognition surveillance, in anticipation (and fear) of the growing adoption worldwide (Conger, Fausset, & Kovaleski, 2019). 1. In criminology, the fear of crime is a significant problem which has been extensively researched. See for example Ditton and Farrall (2017) and Hale (1996). 2. Note that, euphemistically, all terrorism is considered criminal. 3. See Chapter 5 for a detailed discussion of terrorist target selection. 4. Critical infrastructures are systems and assets which are so important to the United States, that their incapacitation would have a “debilitating impact” (NIHS, 2019). 5. See Chapter 8 for a discussion of the application of rational choice theory as it applies to nation-states. 6. See Chapter 5 for an alternative discussion on rational choice and terrorism. 1. See Chapter 4 for a discussion on rational choice as it relates to crime and security. 2. See Chapter 8 for a description of game theory in terms of nation-state decision-making. 1. The registry has been replaced by the American Red Cross Safe and Well, Facebook Safety Check, and Google Person Finder. FEMA maintains a “How Do I Find My Family” webpage https://www.fema.gov/how-do-i-find-my-family. 2. For an example of the breadth of such interagency collaborations, the reader is referred to the Government Accountability Office (2012). Managing for Results: Key Considerations for Implementing Interagency Collaborative Mechanisms. GAO-12-1022. Washington, DC. Government Printing Office. 3. Source: Government Accountability Office (2012). Managing for Results: Key Considerations for Implementing Interagency Collaborative Mechanisms. GAO-12-1022. Washington, DC. Government Printing Office. 1. Drabek (1989). FEMA. See https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/docs/emprinciples/0907_176% 20em%20principles12x18v2f%20johnson%20(w-o%20draft).pdf 2. See https://www.fema.gov/about-agency 3. Rubin, C. B. (Ed.). (2020). Emergency management: The American experience (3rd ed.). Routledge. 4. Rubin, C. B. (2014). Local emergency management: Origins and evolution. In W. Waugh, & K. Tierney (Eds.). Emergency management: Principles and practice for local government (2nd ed., pp. 25–37). Washington, DC: ICMA Press. 5. https://www.flickr.com/photos/noaaphotolib/5424752205/in/photolist-9gngQr-jkBvHJJTHCoz-c5YhCL-24cFvzR-qsvMtP-e3kEaT-4vFgcG-c5YeCf-c5YgrW-XXZdi7-aLzzbBc61cEJ-F8MDz-Xmr5BB-28hKCGC-5i3X1g-ap3jpd-prnFvi-YPPyTr-hnbtR1-WQApZk5i8gvA-8MK8sr-8kELj7-owhKTB-j7N7Dx-8ydXAL-53TZBH-gH8hZs-7thR5w-21obJih8MNeWJ-224QA8J-dLTq92-pySNRs-WVppEA-bVVh7M-icWsDM-GFZ7TE-DDxRCrWYXTm4-pEm9TG-24PF7w1-cuR7Jm-X7Z58x-nPCASC-5i8gjs-7a8sNf-fqVr94 6. https://pixabay.com/photos/hurricane-devastation-destruction-60550/ 7. https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2012/10/26/01/08/buried-62989_960_720.jpg 8. https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/04/03/20/16/wwii-705767_960_720.jpg 9. See https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=456688 10. https://www.flickr.com/photos/keyslibraries/2846421152/in/photolist-6zaTiT-6zaTh4fakDkg-faA2Nh-5kwDQL-5kso7Z-mf8et-SDzGdR-TTi9CZ 11. See https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/21010; National Flood Insurance Act. (1968a). Flood disaster protection Act of 1973. FEMA. https://www.fema. gov/media-library/assets/documents/7277; National Flood Insurance Act. (1968b). As amended, and Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973, as amended, 42 U.S.C. 4001 et. seq. FEMA. https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/21010 12. See https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/7277 13. See https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=458661 14. NGA was founded in 1908 as a bipartisan organization to “share best practices, speak with an informed voice on national policy and develop innovative solutions that improve citizens’ lives through state government and support the principles of federalism” (Source: https://www.nga.org/about/). 15. John Macy, who was the Director of the Civil Service Commission under Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson, was appointed as FEMA’s first Director. He “recognized the commonalities between natural hazards preparedness, civil defense activities, and what would come to be known as the “dual-use approach” to emergency preparedness planning and resources” (FEMA, 2010b, p. 7). 16. NAPA was congressionally chartered in 1967 as a non-partisan nonprofit academy. It “has provided expert advice to government leaders in building and managing more effective, efficient, accountable and transparent organizations” (Source: https://www.napawash.org/about-us/who-we-are). 17. See https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/4596 18. See https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/nat-strat-hls-2002.pdf 19. Today the DHS consists of 22 agencies with a federal workforce of around 240,000 people. 20. See https://www.flickr.com/photos/slagheap/243442250/in/photolist-nvGUb-nvGU75kVU2c-cWrpXW-gUPpD-cF7cz-cF7Ae-cWrq1m-amhJd6-cWrq2o-cWrqYA-5yLUxdes3skw-cWrpeY-cWrqdf-cWrq4Q-cWrq8Q-cWrpp5-cWrpC3-cWrqmw-cWrqHj-cWrqw78B1wJa-8zkiXr-8zJi1X-8B1zEg-VmEQVh-cWrqJA-cWrrh9-es3r5Y-cWrr7L-cWroVjcWrre1-cWrqFS-cWrr35-cWrrTf-cWrrHN-cWrqtU-cWrq6U-q5SWn-cWrrJJ-cWrpFJ-cWrrUq-cWrrGq-cWrrPw-cWrrBd-cWrpto-dapurN-8BtuGa-cWrpiS 21. See Post Katrina Emergency Reform Act (2006) https://www.congress.gov/bill/109thcongress/senate-bill/3721 22. See https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1571336142501-c914622674a919294dd2a964 aaeda0d1/FEMA_Org_Chart.pdf 23. https://www.dhs.gov/publication/department-homeland-securitys-strategic-plan-fiscalyears-2020-2024 24. “Stafford Act is designed to bring an orderly and systemic means of federal natural disaster assistance for state and local governments in carrying out their responsibilities to aid citizens. Congress’ intention was to encourage states and localities to develop comprehensive disaster preparedness plans, prepare for better intergovernmental coordination in the face of a disaster, encourage the use of insurance coverage, and provide federal assistance programs for losses due to a disaster. This Act constitutes the statutory authority for most federal disaster response activities especially as they pertain to FEMA 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. and FEMA programs” (FEMA, 2019, 2019b); see also: Robert T. (2016). Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, as amended, and Related Authorities as of August 2016. FEMA. https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/15271. Two main challenges were observed concerning Stafford Act Assistance and the acts of terrorism where the tactics used in the post 9-11 incidents such as the 2015 San Bernardino, California, the 2016 Orlando, Florida mass shootings and the 2016 Ohio State University vehicular and knife attack (CRS, 2019): (a) According to the Stafford Act, the major disaster definition lists specific incident types that are eligible for federal assistance where there is fire and explosions. It is still unclear whether incidents without a fire or explosion would fit under a major disaster, and (b) FEMA’s recommendation to the President to issue a major disaster declaration is based on the damage on public infrastructure as compared to the population of the state. Hence, the numbers affected and the public infrastructure damage are limited in terrorism cases. See the CRS report on Stafford Act Assistance and Acts of Terrorism (2019) regarding this debate. See National Wildfire Coordinating Group. (2018). Mission. https://www.nwcg.gov/ See https://www.fema.gov/national-incident-management-system See https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspd/hspd-8.html See https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1443799615171-2aae90be55041740f97e8532fc 680d40/National_Preparedness_Goal_2nd_Edition.pdf See CRS Report on PPD-8 and NPS https://fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42073.pdf U.S. Department of Homeland Security (2011). The strategic national risk assessment in support of PPD 8: A comprehensive risk-based approach toward a secure and resilient nation. http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/rma-strategic-national-risk-assessment-ppd8.pdf See https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1487864847326-9b0a1ce43c03c8b7aaf084fd4ea84266/NPS_Graphic_large.png See https://www.fema.gov/national-exercise-program https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bd/Hurricane_Sandy_damage_Long_Beach_Island.jpg/800px-Hurricane_Sandy_damage_Long_Beach_Island.jpg See https://www.fema.gov/sandy-recovery-improvement-act-2013 See https://www.hsdl.org/c/tl/sandy-recovery-improvement-act-2013/ CPG 101, 2010, pp. 4-8 and 4-9. against impacts on the human, health, economic, social, political, environmental, etc. which are commonly considered as components of an “all-hazards approach” See https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/4241 Ibid. THIRA 2019. See https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/181470 Ibid. See https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/docs/comprehensive%20em%20-%20nga.doc See https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1443799615171-2aae90be55041740f97e8532fc 680d40/National_Preparedness_Goal_2nd_Edition.pdf See https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1527613746699-fa31d9ade55988da1293192f1b18f4e3/CPG201Final20180525_508c.pdf THIRA 2019. THIRA 2019. See https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/181470 Ibid. source: Comprehensive Preparedness Guide 101, FEMA.gov, pp. 1-8 and 1-9. See https://www.dhs.gov/what-dhs-does-during-cyber-attack Ibid. See https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/images/opa/What-DHS-Does-During-CyberAttack_0.jpg Note that FBI is agency located within US Attorney General’s Office not within DHS. FBI partners with the Director of National Intelligence and other U.S. intelligence agencies to collect and analyze intelligence involving terrorism-related offenses. See https://www.dhs.gov/what-dhs-does-during-explosives-terrorist-attack See https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/images/opa/What-DHS-Does-During-A-TerroristIncident.jpg See https://www.dhs.gov/what-dhs-does-during-major-storms-and-severe-weather-events 58. See https://www.dhs.gov/what-dhs-does-during-pandemics 59. See https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/images/opa/What-DHS-Does-During-MajorStorm.jpg 60. Ibid. 61. See https://www.dhs.gov/what-dhs-does-during-political-convention 62. See https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/images/opa/What-DHS-Does-During-Pandemics. jpg 63. Ibid. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/images/What%20DHS%20does%20during%20 National%20Conventions%20Slide_4.jpg 64. The Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management has its mission to bridge the gap between the two disciplines. 65. McCreight (2009, 2011), Renda-Tanali (2013) and Kahan (2015). 66. Ramsay and Renda-Tanali (2018); Blanchard (2005); Feldman-Jensen (2017). 1. Mark Lowenthal offers a similar definition, writing that intelligence can be thought about as the process by which information is gathered, analyzed, and disseminated; the products of the intelligence community; and the organizations that make up the IC (Lowenthal, 2017, p. 11). 2. For a concise discussion of Kent’s view of intelligence analysis, see Davis (2002). 3. I discuss these three schools in more detail in my book (Dahl, 2013), upon which this section is drawn. 4. Useful discussions of homeland security intelligence include Burch (2007), Logan (2018) and Steiner (2015). 1. The so-called “Westphalian System” is a global system of norms predicated on the international legal principle that each nation has sovereignty over its own territory and its own domestic affairs; that external powers should not interfere in another nation’s domestic affairs; and that every nation has a similar right to sovereign domestic self-determination under international law. The doctrine is named after the 1648 Peace Treaty of Westphalia. 2. UNEP (2019). 3. Greta Thunberg (2019). 4. Many people are unaware that simply measuring atmospheric heat buildup is wholly inadequate for assessing the scope of the problem. According to the IPCC, the oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the additional trapped heat. This is good for the shortterm atmospheric implications, but very bad for the long-term overall climate change, fisheries, ocean currents, etc.—since that stored energy will change ecosystem dynamics radically. For a good graph of the IPCC data, see http://www.skepticalscience.com/ graphics.php?g=12 5. Both global warming and climate change beget each other in the end—see, for instance, Shi, Wang, and Yang (2010). For a thorough timeline of climate change science over the last 150 years, see Mason (2013) at http://www.skepticalscience.com/history-climatescience.html 6. Previously cautious about tying specific extreme weather to climate, scientists are much more confident about calculating the weight and import of the connection. See, for instance, Lloyd and Oreskes (2019). 7. Wicked problems are problems that exhibit the following characteristics: the solution depends on how the problem is framed, stakeholders vary considerably in how they define and understand the problem, the constraints and resources available to address the problem change over time, the problem is never (totally) solved. See Tom Ritchey (2013), Wicked Problems (Swedish Morphological Society, 2005, revised 2013), http:// www.swemorph.com/pdf/wp.pdf 8. The following sections are adapted from O’Sullivan and Ramsay (2012) and Ramsay and O’Sullivan (2013). 9. See for example, http://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/publications.htm; the Environmental Protection Agency at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/; and the U.S. Department of Agriculture at http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/. 10. “International security” is also a contested concept, and the most orthodox (Cold War-era especially) definitions addressed primarily military issues. But many scholars and analysts now advocate far broader definitions that include other, non-military, threats to the security of nations. For a discussion of this evolving thinking, see Buzan and Hansen (2009) and Buzan et al. (1998). 11. A review of policies and acts related to the design and production of US national security varies depending on the context. See, for example, Maier’s (1990) definition: “National security... is best described as a capacity to control those domestic and foreign conditions that the public opinion of a given community believes necessary to enjoy its own selfdetermination or autonomy, prosperity and wellbeing”. 12. Adapted from Lanicci, Ramsay, and Murray (2017). 13. This section adapted from Ramsay and O’Sullivan (2013). The reader is also referred to Ramsay and Renda-Tenali (2018) in the fall issue of the Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management or a more complete treatment of homeland security knowledge domains. 14. See Homeland Security Affairs VI, no. 2 (May 2010) special issue dedicated to homeland security program development. Specifically, Ramsay, Cutrer, and Raffel (2010), Moore, Hatzodony, Cronin, and Brekenridge (2010), Polson, Persyn, and Cupp (2010) and Bellavita (2008). 15. Adapted from Ramsay and O’Sullivan (2013). 16. Though if tipping points are reached in sub-Arctic permafrost deterioration, or melting of deep ocean Arctic frozen methane, this could lead to a rapid, massive “carbon bomb” that would rival human emissions, according to experts. 17. The seminal article at the time, demonstrating that human carbon emissions were not just being absorbed by the oceans, was Revelle and Suess (1957). 18. The lighter carbon-12 from fossil fuels burning is contrasted with heavier, natural carbon-13 (Cook, 2010). 19. Decline in arctic ice keeps breaking records and exceeding the models (USGCRP, 2017; Vidal, 2012). 20. From O’Sullivan, T. M., & Ramsay, J. (2015). Defining and distinguishing homeland from national security and climate-related environmental security, in theory and practice. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 12(1), 43–66. 21. Adapted from Ramsay and O’Sullivan (2013). 22. Ibid. 1. In contrast to the rest of the Western nations, all of which have some variation on universal healthcare systems. 2. The 1918–1919 Flu is estimated to have killed between 50 and 100 million people worldwide. 3. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome—Coronavirus, which spread to at least two dozen countries on 4 continents. https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html 4. See for instance Maciosek et al. (2010). Vaccines, for instance, are almost universally cost effective from a societal perspective, compared to the diseases they prevent. 5. The federally coordinated Laboratory Response Network (LRN) is a network of laboratories that can respond to biological and chemical threats and other public health emergencies, and now includes state and local public health, veterinary, military, and international labs. https://emergency.cdc.gov/lrn/index.asp 6. Research funding and support for biomedical and health services exists and is administered through entities such as the National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation, and the CDC. 7. For instance, given a certain situation, a more rural area or state might experience an overwhelming disaster, where an urban area with better resources would not. 8. https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/planning/authority/Pages/default.aspx#stafford 9. The lifelines are basic services categories “designed to enable emergency managers, infrastructure owners and operators, and other partners to analyze the root cause of an incident impact and then prioritize and deploy resources to effectively stabilize the lifeline… This construct maximizes the effectiveness of federally supported, state managed, and locally executed response.” (FEMA, 2019) 10. See Department of Homeland Security, https://www.dhs.gov/cisa/critical-infrastructuresectors 11. See Delamater et al. (2019) for further discussion of virulence and reproductive rates of selected pathogens (i.e., Ro). 12. Epidemics are any unusual disease outbreak, and pandemics are epidemics covering multiple countries or continents. 13. Vectors are disease transmitters such as mosquitoes, flies, fleas, snails, and ticks. Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, yellow fever, Chagas disease, leishmaniasis and schistosomiasis account for more than 17% of all infectious diseases, causing more than 700,000 deaths annually. Malaria alone causes up to 400,000 of those deaths. (WHO, 2017) 14. The incubation period is the time between infection of the host and evident manifestations of disease. 15. The following is partially adapted from O’Sullivan (2017). 16. The 1918 Influenza lasted more than 18 months, and passed in a series of waves that went from weeks to months at a time. 17. Once again, however, nothing compared to the global “lock-downs” that occurred in virtually every country in the world after SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 disease appeared. 18. The anthrax attacks were thus dubbed “5/11” by many public health analysts. 19. Zoonotic diseases are those transmitted across species, as happens with avian (bird) or swine (pig) influenzas that can become infectious to humans. The SARS-COV2 virus was identified as a bat coronavirus likely transmitted via another animal to humans at one or more of the live animals “wet markets” in Wuhan. 20. Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., ... & Cheng, Z. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet, 395(10223), 497–506. 21. LiveScience Staff (6-March-2020). Coronavirus cases top 100,000: Live updates on COVID-19. LiveScience. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-updates.html?utm_ source=Selligent&utm _ medium=email&utm _campaig n=14899&utm _content= 20200306_LS_Essentials_Coronavirus+-+adhoc+&utm_term=3699115&m_i=Mf2Mi ExrM9m6gA4rLTkYlHBvVMSB1WUPt02_HwZzvC0hElSMXmSXMRtM2GYQjLRq YRMxhfbFYoc%2BQbdhtmWAb6a1zYceNAzyMU 22. Daniel Bachman (March 3, 2020). The economic impact of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus). Deloitte Insights. 23. Andy Sullivan and Richard Cowan (March 6, 2020). After U.S. Congress and Fed’s quick coronavirus response, next steps likely tougher for Washington. Reuters. https://www. reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-politics-idUSKBN20T2W5 24. James Hamblin (January 30, 2020). We don’t have enough masks. The Atlantic. https:// www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/01/viral-masks/605761/ 25. It went on to note that American policy should be aimed at developing a new plan for bioweapons proliferation and bioterrorism prevention, emphasizing renewal of the neglected and insufficient 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). The Commission also urged renewed efforts to evaluate domestic sources of dangerous disease agents, and improved oversight for research labs from which germs might be stolen or accidentally released (WMD Report, 2008). 26. Such as CRISPR gene editing (Jiang & Doudna, 2017), and high throughput Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) gene copying technologies (NCBI, 2017). 27. Which was criticized because of fears it presented a “how-to” level of published detail. 28. According to the WHO, H5N1 has a mortality rate of about 60%, but a lack of thorough population sero-surveys of previous exposure in the countries most affected may have missed subclinical survivors or cases that were missed by the medical system; hence, the fatality rate could be much higher. See for example: https://www.who.int/influenza/ human_animal_interface/avian_influenza/h5n1_research/faqs/en/ 29. Though as one Harvard epidemiology noted, by limiting the research restrictions to the 15 specific agents, would-be bioterrorists could simply work around it by manipulating other agents not on the list (Akst, 2014b). 1. Consider the laws passed just in the first 12 months, post 9/11: USA PATRIOT Act of 2001, Pub.L. 107-56, 115 Stat 272 (2001); Homeland Security Act of 2002, Pub. L. No. 107-296, 116 Stat 2135 (2002); Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness Response Act of 2002, Pub.L. 177-188, 116 Stat. 594 (2002); The Aviation and Transportation Security Act of 2001, Pub.L. 107-71, 115 Stat. 597(2001); Support Anti-Terrorism by Fostering Effective Technologies Act of 2002, Pub.L. 107-296, 116 Stat. 2135 (2002); The Critical Infrastructure Information Act of 2002, 6 U.S.C. §§ 131–134 (2002); The Cyber Security Enhancement Act of 2002, 6 U.S.C. § 657 (2002); The Maritime Transportation Security Act of 2002, Pub.L. 107-295, 116 Stat. 2064–2134 (2002); The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002, Pub.L. 107-297, 116 Stat. 2322 (2002). 2. See U.S. Constitution, Art VI, §1, cl. 3. 3. “The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States”. 4. See for example The Maritime Transportation Security Act of 2002, 46 U.S.C. § 70102 (2002) (requiring the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security “to identify those vessel types and United States facilities that pose a high risk of being involved in a transportation security incident”. 5. See for example: McCulloch v. Maryland, 17 U.S. (4 Wheat.) 316 (1819) Chisholm v. Georgia, 2 U.S. (2 Dall.) 419 (1793); Martin v. Hunter’s Lessee, 14 U.S. (1 Wheat.) 304 (1816). 6. Note that spelling and grammar as used in the US Constitution have been preserved. 7. The 10th Amendment to the US Constitution provides that: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people”. U.S. Const. amend. X. 8. Without the power of the purse, that is, the ability to raise revenues to fund a military expedition, the power to declare war is almost meaningless. An oft-noted example of the frailty of the central government was its inability to timely seat a quorum to ratify the Treaty of Paris, marking its independence or to pay the expense of sending the ratified treaty to England. See, e.g., U.S. Code 1952 Edition, Articles of Confederation—1777. 9. The implied powers of Congress were first recognized by the US Supreme Court in McCulloch v. Maryland, 17 U.S. 316 (1819). 10. 18 U.S.C. §§ 2701–2712 addresses voluntary and compelled disclosure of “stored wire and electronic communications and transactional records” held by third-party internet service providers. It was enacted as Title II of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986. 11. “All legislative powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress….” U.S. Const. art. 1, § 1. 12. Congress, through the Taft-Hartley Act, had created a mechanism to resolve such labor disputes, which would have prevented the ensuing United Steel Workers Union strike. 13. See discussion of the Insurrection Act. 14. Unfortunately, the Court also included a poorly phrased methods-based caveat to the test, adding “at least where (as here) the technology in question is not in general public use”. 15. The Maxwell decision will seem quaint today in its discussion of the applicable technology. But the Court’s continuing struggle, well-demonstrated in this case, to balance the 4th Amendment promise of a reasonable expectation of privacy with law enforcement needs to combat technology-facilitated crimes may serve as the basis of another case study. The Court’s application of the “Third Party Doctrine”, finding no reasonable expectation of privacy in data held by a third party, should be explored simultaneously. See Smith v Maryland, 442 U.S. 735 (1979), and Carpenter v. United States, 138 S.Ct. 2206 (2018). 16. While the Fifth Amendment is directed at the federal government, the Fourteenth Amendment has a parallel limitation on state and local governments, also requiring that an act by the government against its people must be undertaken with due process of law. 17. The U.S. Supreme Court case in Plyer v. Doe, involved the State of Texas’ revision of its laws to exclude the children of undocumented immigrants from being eligible to attend K-12 school. The Court held that the children of undocumented immigrants are “people” as stated in the 14th Amendment, and under the Equal Protection clause one’s immigration status is not a sufficient rational basis for denying benefits afforded to other residents. 18. DoDD 5525.5, DoD Cooperation with Civilian Law Enforcement Officials. 1. That is, even though it may not draw a profit itself, cybersecurity can help lessen the likelihood of an incident and can help mitigate the harm/costs that could result from an incident. 2. Rules have also been established to deter cybercrime behavior, but these laws are not central to maintaining confidentiality, integrity, availability, or resilience; such aspects of our criminal and civil code are not discussed in this chapter. It should be noted that such rules generally prohibit the security concept of “hacking back” by victim organizations against a perceived aggressor (Cook, 2018). 3. Rather, most national governments outlaw other countries’ intelligence operations on domestic soil. This is a matter of national law, not international law. 4. Although the title invokes an emphasis on critical infrastructure, this framework is suitable for all types of organizations, from businesses to non-profits to government agencies. NIST also provides some more particularized framework guidance for certain sectors, such as manufacturing, and for organizations concerned about the security and resilience of industrial control systems. 1. Unless otherwise cited, the information contained in section 14.4.5 (Non-Competitive and Unconstrained Biometrics) derives from the personal involvement of the author in technology-development initiatives for DHS. See the National Institute of Standards and Technology (2019) Chexia Face Recognition webpage listed in this chapter’s reference section for additional resources on this topic.