New India by 2022

2007

India is playing an increasingly important role in the global economy and, correspondingly, in resource use and emissions. Yet, the modelling tools for exploring the opportunities and threats for India, and for other parts of the world as a consequence of this development, suffer from conceptual limitations. This report explores options for improvement, especially given the large heterogeneity of India that is difficult to capture in aggregate average data. Model-based simulations indicate that India's population by 2050 will be over 1.5 billion, displaying a large population momentum that is one of the drivers of economic growth. Forward calculations with the demographic model, PHOENIX, and the IFs Economy model show that such developments of population and income are possible, provided that sufficient and timely investments in health care and education take place. Additional model simulations, including those using the TIMER energy model, indicate that ecological and socio-economic constraints might bar these positive developments. Only rigorous government policy initiatives striving for sustainable management of India's resources (land, water, energy) and appropriate investments in education and health can lead to a real increase in well-being for a large part of the population.

2011

In 2011, looking back at the first decade of the 21 st century-2000-2010-we strongly believe that this decade indeed can be called-India's Decade of Development. We elaborate why. Going forward however, India will face enormous challenges in the areas of rural development, urban sustainability, national infrastructure, and human capital and population. India will add hundreds of millions of people to the urban economy in the years and decades ahead. India's cities need to be safe, efficient, pleasant to live in, supported by infrastructure (water, sewerage, electricity, transport, etc.), able to create jobs which are globally competitive, etc. Briefly put, India needs a revolution in sustainable urban planning. Sustainable cities mean: walk able, mix used areas, public transport, urban planning, public health and other services, and climate resilient especially coastal cities. To be able to create large scale job opportunities will mean solid systems of education-apprenticeship, vocational training, etc., perhaps along the German lines that link schooling with early labor-market entry.

Every country needs a vision statement which stirs the imagination and motivates all segments of society to greater effort. It is an essential step in building a political consensus on a broad national development strategy, which encompasses, inter-alia, the roles and responsibilities of different agents in the economy, such as Central, State and local government, the private corporate sector, the small and tiny sector, people's organisations etc. It must identify the potential risks and bottlenecks and their possible solutions in order to mobilise efforts in a focussed manner. It is clear, therefore, that to meet these objectives, a vision statement has to operate at several levels of generality and specificity.

Futures, 2004

Based on the geopolitical developments in India's neighbouring countries and India's response to them, this paper depicts four scenarios-Storms and Fires, Rainbow in the Sky, Light and Shadows and Across Space. Each scenario explores a set of possible events and the consequences triggered by it. While Storms and Fires is based on the rise of a sharp nationalist Indian sentiment in the face of heightened security tensions in the region, Across Space outlines the future of India's worldview shaped by the present government's policy of US primacy. Light and Shadows is based on differential policy towards neighbours-conflict with Pakistan and cooperation with other neighbours. This scenario is predicated on the supremacy of economic objectives whereas Rainbow in the Sky is based on the regional cooperation as the primary guiding force of the Indian foreign policy. Though major geopolitical events in its neighbourhood will impact the immediate future of India, India's response and internal strengths and weaknesses will determine its long-term future. It is therefore essential for the country to develop a well considered trajectory of its strategic options for the next 25 years. #

General Economics and Teaching, 2005

The future is essentially unpredictable. This is truer today than twenty years back. And that is due to the rapid acceleration of the scientific and technological revolution. Twenty years back, the class rooms moved from mechanical calculators to electronic ones. In 1980s, the PCs entered the scene, pushing back the electronic calculators. Ever since then, we are having a revolution every year. Tapes were replaced by hard disks and floppies. Floppies by CD ROM's, and now CD ROM's by tape drives. Computer technology is getting outdated by the year. Each year brings with it new learning, new technology, new promises. However this rapid acceleration has now begun to reveal the faint outlines of the distant future. At least three major revolutions seem inevitable: the bio-tech revolution, the info-tech revolution and the energy revolution.

Every country needs a vision statement which stirs the imagination and motivates all segments of society to greater effort. It is an essential step in building a political consensus on a broad national development strategy, which encompasses, inter-alia, the roles and responsibilities of different agents in the economy, such as Central, State and local government, the private corporate sector, the small and tiny sector, people's organisations etc. It must identify the potential risks and bottlenecks and their possible solutions in order to mobilise efforts in a focussed manner. It is clear, therefore, that to meet these objectives, a vision statement has to operate at several levels of generality and specificity.

SCAENA, 2023

Intervenção no Largo da Atafona em Lisboa, onde foi identificada uma diacronia ocupacional entre os Século XI e XX, com destaque para um conjunto de silos de período Medieval, e uma atafona do século XIV