Foreign policy

UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI CLASS ASSIGNMENT JAN-APRIL 2015 DAVID OMONDI WERE C01/40655/2013 CPS 432: COMPARATIVE FOREIGN POLICY LECTURER: PROF NYING’URO TOPIC: LEVELS OF ANALYSIS-as advanced by James N Rosenau INTRODUCTION A level of analysis refers to a unit on which scholars, researchers and students can attach a variable for the purpose of comprehensive analysis, understanding and explanation of phenomena. Scholars like James N Rosenau came up with the idea of levels of analysis in order to make the study of foreign policy more scientific particularly after the Second World War when scholars were moving away from the realist perspective which emphasized that the state was the unitary factor when it came to conduct and formulation of foreign policy. Levels of analysis helps to make the study of foreign policy more theoretical, more systematic and more analytical. Similarly, they help to simplify the complex international system in which a country is engaging with when it comes to foreign policy. ABSTRACT In this paper, we shall look at the three levels of analysis as advanced by James N Rosenau and how they influence the conduct and formulation of foreign policy. These levels of analysis include the idiosyncratic or individual level, governmental politics level, the societal level, the role level as well as the systemic or the international system. However, this paper shall examine the first three levels of analysis. In the idiosyncratic level of analysis we look at variables that are unique to an individual or rather define who an individual is. Idiosyncratic level of analysis acknowledges the fact that at the root of any decision making process are the people who make policies. Therefore the individual level of analysis involves understanding how the human or people decision making process affects policy making which in turn influences a country’s external behavior. Individual level of analysis looks at the human actor on world stage and focuses not only on the fundamental nature of human beings and its effects on decisions but also explores how peculiarity of human nature affects foreign policy. Such character traits include age, physical or mental health condition, temperament of an individual, level of education, social mannerisms, belief system, childhood experiences among many more and how they affect the conduct and formulation of foreign policy. A variable like age for example, scholars have argued that a youthfulness of a leader is associated with revolutionary and risky decisions unlike older leaders who are more pragmatic and conservative when it comes to decision making. A youthful leader would easily declare war on a neighboring country as opposed to older one who will employ rationale by weighing the cost benefit effects of any decision before arriving at a conclusion. The youth are more adventurous and are likely to try experimenting new ides but older ones are status-quo oriented. An example is President Julius Nyerere who in his youthful years decided to expel the United States ambassador and even closed the British embassy at the height of apartheid regimes in South Africa. In addition to this, he allowed the African National Congress (ANC) guerilla fighters to train in Tanzania yet South Africa was just a few miles away. This was a very risky venture. Similarly, the reason why the United States has historically been associated with revolutionary decisions is largely because it has all along been ruled by youthful leaders. Childhood experiences are said to follow people in old age and that they never go away completely. Sigmund Freud argues that everybody is a small child and that the reason grown- ups cry at times is because of the small child in them. To him, a human being is made up of three parts: the ID, the ego and the super ego. The ego only helps in playing the role of the balance act. Childhood experiences usually shape the way people view the world. Some people who have undergone troubled experiences especially resulting from natural causes like poverty or war harbor bitterness or resentment throughout their lives. Such people, once in leadership positions, pursue foreign policies that are oriented towards their childhood experiences. This reason has been attributed to be behind the world’s known dictators like Adolf Hitler, Saddam Hussein and Joseph Stalin. Psychologists however are of the contrary opinion when it comes to childhood experiences of leaders. To them, such leaders are likely to pursue friendly and peaceful foreign policies when it comes to foreign relations since they do not want their fellow human beings to go through what they experienced. Physical or mental health is an important variable too when it comes to foreign policy. Strong and sound decisions require sound and sober minds. Some decisions too require the physical presence of the leaders. President Jomo Kenyatta of Kenya rarely travelled outside the country due to his deteriorating physical condition and this greatly influenced Kenya’s foreign policies as he could not personally pursue sound foreign policies that could steer Kenya to greater levels globally. President Roosevelt is said to have suffered from polio and at one time is said to have been bedridden for two weeks. Likewise, President Woodrow Wilson is said to have suffered from cardiovascular failure (a heart condition) and this is attributed to his failure to convince the Congress to make the United States join the League of Nations. In the governmental politics level of analysis, we consider variables that centre around issues of governance and how they impact on the country’s external behavior. Some scholars refer to this level as state level of analysis. Here, we consider variables that are concerned with the national states and their internal processes that are the primary determinants of the course of world affairs. This level acknowledges the fact that despite the human importance, policy making is significantly affected by the fact that it occurs within the context of a political structure. State level of analysis improves our understanding of the policy by analyzing the importance of structure in policy making. Governmental level of analysis places an emphasis on the innate characteristics of states and how they make and implement foreign policy choices. Variables include legislation processes or constitutional provisions, levels of institutionalization or bureaucracy, whether the political system is closed or open, the extent of democracy, role of interest or pressure groups as well as the type of ideology the country ascribes to when it comes to the conduct and formulation of foreign policy. If decision making processes are based on bureaucracy and the political system is open, popular/public participation is likely to be witnessed when it comes to a country’s decision on external affairs. This is particularly important when it comes to electing envoys, ambassadors or even foreign affairs ministers to represent a certain country in the external arena. The United States of America has always involved its citizens in decisions that affect its external relationship largely because of its open political system. A good example is on its declaration of its war with Iraq where public opinion was involved before this decision was arrives at. The type of government also plays a key role when it comes to the conduct and formulation of foreign policy (whether it is democratic or authoritarian). An authoritarian government has its foreign policy centering on a narrow segment of the government especially of the executive. However, it is important to note that states are too big and complex for any decision to be absolutely under the thumb of an individual however authoritarian it may be. Secondary leaders like foreign affairs Ministers, interest groups, bureaucrats and other elements play a key role even in the very authoritarian political system. President Bill Clinton for example signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1991 on behalf of the United States but the senate refused to ratify it. A closed political system will end up electing a representative who will only pursue personal and vested interests meant to benefit certain selected people and not promote national interests of a country. Similarly, an open democracy allows free, fair and regular elections and those elected in public offices are a representation of the will of the people. A closed democratic system imposes a leadership on the citizens and this type of leadership is not able to ably represent its citizens when it comes to the conduct and formulation of foreign policy. In his treatise “Perpetual Peace,” Immanuel Kant observes that democratic countries behave in a certain way both internally and externally in order to flex and manipulate the behavior of its citizens. When it comes to ideology, a country is able to pursue foreign policies that are oriented towards a specific ideology in which it ascribes to. Countries that are Capitalism-oriented pursue capitalistic (aggressive) policies when it comes to the conduct and formulation of foreign policies just as those that are Socialism-oriented pursue socialist (friendly policies). A good example is the post-independence foreign relations between Kenya and Tanzania where President Julius Nyerere referred to Kenya as ‘a man eat man society’ whereas President Jomo Kenyatta called Kenya ‘a man eat nothing society.’ This is largely attributed to the differences in the ideological policies of these two nations which has greatly influenced how they have related up to date, their relationship in foreign affairs is marred with mistrust. Iran for example subscribes to Islam as a state hence its foreign policy towards other states is aligned on Islamic foundations and teachings. Its religious leader is also the supreme executive (Theocratic-religious based) hence all their policies both domestic and foreign are laid on Islam as a religion. Finally, we look at the societal level of analysis which is non-governmental in nature. Variables in this level include religious affiliation, natural resource endowment, economic instruments of power, ethnic composition as well as geography of a country and how it impacts on the conduct and formulation of foreign policy. Religion for example influences beliefs of a certain country when it comes to the conduct and formulation of foreign policy. A country like Pakistan has its belief system based on Islam as a dominant religion. Laws that govern Pakistan both internally and externally when it comes to issues of governance as well as foreign policy formulation are derived from Islamic teachings. Likewise, the United States foreign policy when it comes to war on terrorism are sensitive to religion a s a variable. The United States foreign policy on terrorism is aligned in such a way that it is not perceived to be fighting Islamic religion under the veil of terrorism. Economic instruments like the ability to advance foreign aid have a great impact on foreign relations of any country. These play a key role in influencing behaviors of certain countries when it comes to foreign policy formulation. Poor countries do not have this luxury since they are not at liberty to make and implement foreign policies that are of their own nationalistic interests. This is why the United States was able to arm twist many African countries to practice and demonstrate democratic ethos especially embracing multi-party democracy as well as the Structural Adjustment Programs as the African countries were to be denied aid unless they did so. Natural resource endowment is also an important variable in the societal level of analysis as this gives countries leverage in the international arena. Countries with large oil deposits for example usually use this a s a foreign policy tool. Abundance of natural resources mostly translates to economic power. In 1970’s for example during apartheid era in South Africa, Nigeria gave financial support to the African National Congress to fight against the white supremacy in South Africa, As much as Nigeria has been ruled by military dictators, nobody ostracized them mainly because of its oil deposits which is a source of wealth hence leverage in foreign affairs. Demography of a country is very important when it comes to foreign policy formulation. Among the variables here is the ethnic composition of a country. The existence of ethnic minority groups, its origin as well as its composition highly influence the conduct and formulation of foreign policies of any given country. Kenya for example pursues friendly foreign policies towards Somalia due to the existence of Somalis in both the countries. The same can be said of the United States and Israel. The presence of the Jewish lobby group in the United States who are said to be very wealth and even sponsors a candidate to White House makes the United States to pursue friendly foreign policies when dealing with Israel. When it comes to geography as a variable in the societal level of analysis, size of a country, its location and the terrain of the land are looked at and how they influence the conduct and formulation of foreign policy. The terrain of a country is important especially when it comes to military strategy. The United States is usually reluctant to engage in land wars in countries like Afghanistan where it is not sure about the terrain of the land. The size of the country is an important aspect when it comes to natural resource endowment as well as border securities. Larger countries are assumed to have quite a number of natural resources by virtue of their vast land. This gives them leverage when it comes to foreign affairs as resources act as economic instruments of foreign policy. However, larger countries are said to be vulnerable and prone to border attacks due to porous borders. Location of a country takes three dimensions when it comes to foreign policy. Littoral or coastal states are those countries whose part of its territorial borders touches on the international waters like oceans and seas. This gives such countries leverage in the international arena as these act as ports and harbors through which strategic goods especially military hardware passes through to other countries which are landlocked. A landlocked country on the other hand experiences constraints when it comes to foreign behavior as it is limited in its choices against Littoral states. This is why Kenya has leverage over Uganda and Rwanda when it comes to foreign behavior since most of the strategic goods especially military hardware to these countries comes through Kenya. Uganda and Rwanda cannot afford to pursue hostile foreign policies towards Kenya. Insular countries (Islands) like Japan and Britain have stronger navies and this is attributed to their locations. The strong navy is an important instrument when it comes to foreign policy.