Land use planning

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops.

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as biodiversity, food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic characteristics, land use, biodiversity, atmospheric composition and climate. Most published impact assessments do not address the vulnerability of the human-environment system under such environmental change. They cannot answer important multidisciplinary policy relevant questions such as: which are the main regions or sectors that are vulnerable to global change? How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare? Which scenario is the least, or most, harmful for a given region or sector?

The processes controlling total carbon (C) storage and release from the terrestrial biosphere are still poorly quantified. We conclude from analysis of paleodata and climate biome model output that terrestrial C exchanges since the last glacial maximum (LGM) were dominated by slow processes of C sequestration in soils, possibly modified by C starvation and reduced water use efficiency of trees during the LGM. Human intrusion into the C cycle was immeasurably small. These processes produced an averaged C sink in the terrestrial biosphere on the order of 0.05 Pg yr−1 during the past 10,000 years. In contrast, future C cycling will be dominated by human activities, not only from increasing C release with burning of fossil fuels, and but also from indirect effects which increase C storage in the terrestrial biosphere (CO2 fertilization; management of C by technology and afforestation; synchronous early forest succession from widespread cropland abandonment) and decrease C storage in the biosphere (synchronous forest dieback from climatic stress; warming-induced oxidation of soil C; slowed forest succession; unfinished tree life cycles; delayed immigration of trees; increasing agricultural land use). Comparison of the positive and negative C flux processes involved suggests that if the C sequestration processes are important, they likely will be so during the next few decades, gradually being counteracted by the C release processes. Based only on tabulating known or predicted C flux effects of these processes, we could not determine if the earth will act as a significant C source from dominance by natural C cycle processes, or as a C sink made possible only by excellent earth stewardship in the next 50 to 100 yrs. Our subsequent analysis concentrated on recent estimates of C release from forest replacement by increased agriculture. Those results suggest that future agriculture may produce an additional 0.6 to 1.2 Pg yr−1 loss during the 50 to 100 years to CO2 doubling if the current ratio of farmed to potentially-farmed land is maintained; or a greater loss, up to a maximum of 1.4 to 2.8 Pg yr−1 if all potential agricultural land is farmed.

A structural description of a 0.5 ha stand in the primaeval coniferous forest of Fiby in central Sweden is reported, and a simulation model is used to test the hypothesis that the diameter and height distributions of the two most important tree species Pinus sylvestris L. (shade-intolerant) and Picea abies (L.) Karst. (shade-tolerant), are the outcome of simple successional processes following storm-felling 190 yr previously. The simulation model, FORSKA, is a ‘gap model’ treating light and other resource availability as homogeneous within patches. Simple formulations of dimensional relationships, vertical leaf area distributions within trees, light attenuation through the canopy and net assimilation as a function of ligh intensity allow FORSKA to simulate the species mixture, size distributions and vertical canopy structure of mixed-age, mixed-species forests. Parameters of the model were estimated from literature and from field data on height-diameter relationships, establishment rates and maximum ring-widths. The simulation generated a stand description similar to the real one in all essential characteristics. FORSKA allows vertical overlap between the crowns of nearby trees. The present simulation also differed from many gap model simulations in that the patch size was much greater than the maximum crown size, consistent with field observations that single treefall gaps have little effect; the persistence of shade-intolerant species in boreal forests generally depends on larger-scale disturbance events, such as large storm-gaps and forest fires.

There is great uncertainty with regard to the future role of the terrestrial biosphere in the global carbon cycle. The uncertainty arises from both an inadequate understanding of current pools and fluxes as well as the potential effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2 on natural ecosystems. Despite these limitations, a number of studies have estimated current and future patterns of terrestrial carbon storage. Future estimates focus on the effects of a climate change associated with a doubled atmospheric concentration of CO2. Available models for examining the dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage and the potential role of forest management and landuse practices on carbon conservation and sequestration are discussed.

The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCC’s fifth series of climate change assessments saw substantial efforts by climate change denial interests to portray anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as either unproven theory or a negligible contribution to natural climate variability, including the relationship between tourism and climate change. This paper responds to those claims by stressing that the extent of scientific consensus suggests that human induced warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Second, it responds in the context of tourism research and ACC, highlighting tourism’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as climate change’s potential impacts on tourism at different scales. The paper exposes the tactics used in ACC denial papers to question climate change science by referring to non-peer-reviewed literature, outlier studies, and misinterpretation of research, as well as potential links to think tanks and interest gro...

Background, aim, and scope The timber sector, i.e., forestry and timber industry, plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of Ghana through timber products export. Timber production in this sector is associated with increasing environmental burdens in terms of use of materials and energy, production of emissions and waste, and land use changes. The purpose of this study was to compile a comprehensive life cycle inventory (LCI) to identify the most dominant environmental pressures for five major production lines in the timber industry, and to evaluate the influence of the choice of the functional unit on the results (1 m 3 , 1 kg, and 1 euro). LCA's of wood typically base their functional unit on volume, but mass or money may be more appropriate for the rather different products considered in this study. Materials and methods The LCI covers five timber production lines, namely, air-dried lumber, kiln-dried lumber, plywood, veneer, and furniture parts. Three functional units were used for this study to identify the most appropriate basis for a fair comparison of the different timber products (functional units were 1 m 3 , 1 kg and 1 euro). Questionnaires were administered to thirty selected companies in Ghana. These companies provided data about their material uses, energy requirements, and waste production for their operations from 2000 to 2007. The collected data were first converted into total annual average values, and next extrapolated to reflect the national average data for all 104 active companies. Finally, these data were Responsible editor: Joerg Schweinle

BACKGROUND: A mechanism for emission reductions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) is very likely to be included in a future climate agreement. The choice of REDD baseline methodologies will crucially influence the environmental and economic effectiveness of the climate regime. We compare three different historical baseline methods and one innovative dynamic model baseline approach to appraise their applicability under a

Conceptual models are useful for facing the challenges of environmental sciences curriculum and course developers and students. These challenges are inherent to the interdisciplinary and problem-oriented character of environmental sciences curricula. In this article, we review the merits of conceptual models in facing these challenges. These models are valuable because they can be used to (a) improve the coherence and focus of an environmental sciences curriculum, (b) analyze environmental issues and integrate knowledge, (c) examine and guide the process of environmental research and problem solving, and (d) examine and guide the integration of knowledge in the environmental-research and problem-solving processes. We advocate the use of various conceptual models in environmental sciences education. By applying and reflecting on these models, students start to recognize the complexity of human-environment systems, to appreciate the various approaches to framing environmental problems, and to comprehend the role of science in dealing with these problems.

In this millennium, global drylands face a myriad of problems that present tough research, management, and policy challenges. Recent advances in dryland development, however, together with the integrative approaches of global change and sustainability science, suggest that concerns about land degradation, poverty, safeguarding biodiversity, and protecting the culture of 2.5 billion people can be confronted with renewed optimism. We review recent lessons about the functioning of dryland ecosystems and the livelihood systems of their human residents and introduce a new synthetic framework, the Drylands Development Paradigm (DDP). The DDP, supported by a growing and well-documented set of tools for policy and management action, helps navigate the inherent complexity of desertification and dryland development, identifying and synthesizing those factors important to research, management, and policy communities.

Climate change will affect crop yields and consequently farmers' income. The underlying relationships are not well understood, particularly the importance of crop management and related factors at the farm and regional level. We analyze the impacts of trends and variability in climatic conditions from 1990 to 2003 on trends and variability in yields of five crops and farmers' income at farm type and regional level in Europe considering farm characteristics and other factors. While Mediterranean regions are often characterized as most vulnerable to climate change, our data suggest effective adaptation to variable and changing conditions in these regions largely attributable to the characteristic farm types in these regions. We conclude that for projections of climate change impacts on agriculture, farm characteristics influencing management and adaptation should be considered, as they largely influence the potential impacts.

Recent increases in the accuracy of climate models have enhanced the possibilities for analyzing the impacts of climate change on society. This paper explores how the local, economic impacts of climate change can be modeled for a specific ecoregion, the Western Sahel. The people in the Sahel are highly dependent on their natural resource base, and these resources are highly vulnerable to climate change, in particular to changes in rainfall. Climate models project substantial changes in rainfall in the Sahel in the coming 50 years, with most models predicting a reduction in rainfall. To connect climate change to changes in ecosystem productivity and local income, we construct an ecological-economic model that incorporates rangeland dynamics, grazing and livestock prices. The model shows that decreased rainfall in the Sahel will considerably reduce local incomes, in particular if combined with increases in rainfall variability. Adaptation to these climate change projections is possible if reductions in rainfall are followed by destocking to reach efficient grazing levels. However, while such a strategy is optimal from the perspective of society, the stocking rate is determined by individual pastoralists that face few incentives to destock.