Papers by Farrukh Irnazarov
Routledge eBooks, Apr 28, 2023
Economic Sanctions on Russia: Challenges and Opportunities for Central Asia, 2022
• Central Asia remains dependent on the Russian economy in terms of business-to-business ties.
• ... more • Central Asia remains dependent on the Russian economy in terms of business-to-business ties.
• The sanctions regime thus presents both risks and opportunities for the region.
• The short-term risks are likely to be challenging for private firms; however, over the long run, these businesses will be able to adapt and reduce their excessive dependence on Russian imports.
• If not addressed, the collapse of remittances and the return of labor migrants to Central Asia may provoke economic instability in the region.
• The brain drain from Russia and Belarus could greatly benefit Central Asian markets over the long term.
• The sanctions may shift connectivity opportunities from Russia to Central Asia.
Impact Assessment of Foreign Direct Investment in Central Asia, 2022
This study presents the results of a perception survey aimed at revealing entrepreneurs' views on... more This study presents the results of a perception survey aimed at revealing entrepreneurs' views on the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) projects by Chinese, European, and US firms in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It examines whether their FDI is conducive to improving the investment climate, governance, and market reforms in Central Asia. The study is based on interviews with 103 private sector entrepreneurs in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 2021-2022.
Chinese, EU, and US Investments in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan: The Perceptions of the Private Sectors, 2022
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are emerging markets that are attracting the interest of investors wor... more Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are emerging markets that are attracting the interest of investors worldwide due to their vast natural resources, strategic location in the heart of Eurasia, and ever-expanding economies. Therefore, it is interesting to explore the current pattern of and perceptions about the investments in these countries by the three economic heavyweights, China, the EU, and the US. To that end, representatives of the private sectors in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were interviewed to elicit their perceptions regarding Chinese, European, and American investments there.
Main findings:
· EU companies are the standard-setters and preferred partners for entrepreneurs in Central Asia.
· US business is of high interest for the private sectors in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, though the business culture similarity is lower compared to European and Chinese business cultures.
· There is a knowledge vacuum about US business in the region.
· Chinese companies are widely represented in the least accountable sectors.
· The perceptions of Kazakh and Uzbek entrepreneurs are similar on many accounts.
The top three answers matched in most cases for respondents in the two countries that strengthens the validity of research findings.
Building an institution of ombudsman for migrant rights in host country for a secure and prosperous society, 2018
Migration is a complex and often disregarded process affecting the fates of people and states – i... more Migration is a complex and often disregarded process affecting the fates of people and states – in both counties of origin and destination countries. Russian society has been historically forming as a multi- ethnical country with diverse religions, languages and cultures. Due to various political and socio- economic turbulences, numerous wars and conflicts of the past, several waves of migration have taken place in the Eurasian region and shaped the modern Russia’s migration face.
The Russian government recognized the importance of migration and liberalized its migration legislation towards citizens of the former USSR and to those who belong to the so-called “Russian world” – speak the Russian language and share Russian values. This was a prudent step to attract skilled and productive migrants and to improve the demographic situation in the country. However, uneven spatial development of the country served as an impediment to attract the best human resources from the CIS countries, as newcomers had to settle in far from major economic centers, such as Moscow and Saint-Petersburg. On the other hand, Russia experienced a big influx of labor migrants from the CIS countries right upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This sporadic and self-organized migration was and has been, conversely, directed to major economic centers, such as Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, Kazan, Kaliningrad, Yekaterinburg, etc.
Thus, Russia has been facing an interesting situation: it was able to attract more skilled migrants to remote areas, while self-governed labor migration streams ended up in major economic centers that created many challenges, such as escalating social tension, security concerns, economic disparities and political disagreements both within and outside the country. Therefore, the Russian experience is worth having a more detailed look and discussing at the global scale.
Since independence the countries of Central Asia embarked upon liberal reforms in their economic ... more Since independence the countries of Central Asia embarked upon liberal reforms in their economic policies, including trade. However, persistence of formal and informal barriers to trade in general, and to services in particular, impedes further liberalization and development of the service industries in both countries. Moreover, existence of these barriers prevents large trade volumes between the neighbouring states. Therefore, it is very important to identify and analyze those barriers within each county. In the research formal and informal barriers to trade in services in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are first revealed and then assessed. Having identified the barriers it would be possible to provide policy recommendations for various international organizations and governments of the region with regard to further promotion of trade in services in Central Asia.
Central Asian Affairs, 2017
Increasing urbanization triggered by population growth creates additional challenges in city plan... more Increasing urbanization triggered by population growth creates additional challenges in city planning, prompting governments and municipalities to search for innovative approaches. Smart city initiatives have proven efficient solutions for emerging urban challenges in many developed countries. Smart cities aim to improve living conditions, make more efficient use of physical infrastructure, and promote environmental sustainability. Cities in Central Asia face many urban challenges, including deteriorating and aging infrastructure, traffic congestion, inadequate waste management systems, and pollution. Sustainable urban management strategies are needed to address these challenges as well as to improve citizens’ quality of life and welfare in the longer term. This article assesses the potential for introduction of smart city projects in six major cities of Central Asia (Almaty, Astana, Ashgabat, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent), and suggests an integrative framework for subsequent ana...
Migration is a complex and often disregarded process affecting the fates of people and states – i... more Migration is a complex and often disregarded process affecting the fates of people and states – in both counties of origin and destination countries. Russian society has been historically forming as a multiethnical country with diverse religions, languages and cultures. Due to various political and socioeconomic turbulences, numerous wars and conflicts of the past, several waves of migration have taken place in the Eurasian region and shaped the modern Russia’s migration face.
The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportun... more The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories. The paper employs the foresight methodology to build four scenarios related to the situation after the lockdown is fully lifted. The scenarios serve the purpose of helping decision makers to embark on informed decisions while shaping anti-crisis measures and better understand causality mechanisms behind their policy choices. Scenario 1 (Protectionist Autarky): Stability upheld, limited reforms, increased role of the state and protectionism. Scenario 2 (Impactful Diversification): Increased social support, augmented role of the private sector, comprehensive diversification and enhanced regionalization. Scenario 3 (Inertial Asymmetry): Selective support measures, inequality-conducive, restricted diversification and limited reforms, “business-as-usual” commodity market, growing regionalization. Scenario 4 (Unleashed Bazaar): Major institutional reforms, FDI-oriented economic openness, leapfrogging from stagnant to advanced emerging markets.
The barriers to trade in developing countries constitute one of the major obstacles to economic d... more The barriers to trade in developing countries constitute one of the major obstacles to economic development and growth. This study aims at addressing the issues surrounding the prevalence of informal trade barriers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. While it appears to be logical that the strongest economies of Central Asia should increase trade volume with neighboring countries, in reality the potential for intensifying cross-border trade is barely being realized. This paper attempts to shed light on trade barriers in key industries in both countries, including manufacturing, transport, and agriculture. As can be seen from this study, these industries experience different types of restrictions and varying degrees of state intervention in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The paper places special emphasis on informal barriers and the tools companies use to overcome those barriers. The paper is based on a survey of a total of 108 companies in both countries and the output of a roundtable discuss...
Strasbourg Policy Centre Caucasus & Central Asia, 2020
This study provides an empirical overview of pandemic-related external assistance to the Central ... more This study provides an empirical overview of pandemic-related external assistance to the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan by partner countries and international organisations between March and September 2020. This state-of-the-art review of Central Asia official development assistance extends to pledged funds beyond this period. The systemic comparison of donors suggests that there is no single actor that stands out as a champion of economic recovery; these are mostly small, token contributions. By contrast, targeted medical assistance has been far more significant, albeit focused on short-term crisis management of the pandemic. There has been only a handful of assistance projects that reflect a long-term stake in Central Asia’s economic recovery and the pandemic showed little evidence of the Great Game competition for regional geopolitical influence. Thus, the relations between big powers and Central Asia need to be reconsidered and given a new meaning that would better reflect the interests and interaction between the two parties. The pandemic showed that these relations were mainly pragmatic during the global health crisis with no external partner showing interest in projecting and expanding strategic influence on the region. The region needs to build its internal resilience against new crises and avoid excessive reliance on external assistance in the long term.
Regional Competence-Building for Think Tanks, 2012
Regional integration remains a hot topic of research on Central Asia, although the actual progres... more Regional integration remains a hot topic of research on Central Asia, although the actual progress of regional integration remains at a very low level. While state and social level integration have been well-researched, economic actors (such as entrepreneurs, companies
and corporations) as the major clients and consumers of regional integration have been largely overlooked. This paper scrutinises perceptions among economic actors in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Based on 430 interviews and within the scope of the hypotheses presented, the authors conclude that the majority of economic actors see little or no use in integrating with their neighbours, even though the literature on this issue depicts numerous benefits derived from regional integration. Thus, the authors provide several policy recommendations that should assist in tackling prevalent practices in the countries under investigation.
Silk Road Paper, 2020
The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportun... more The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories. The paper employs the foresight methodology to build four scenarios related to the situation after the lockdown is fully lifted. The scenarios serve the purpose of helping decision makers to embark on informed decisions while shaping anti-crisis measures and better understand causality mechanisms behind their policy choices.
Scenario 1 (Protectionist Autarky): Stability upheld, limited reforms, increased role of the state and protectionism.
Scenario 2 (Impactful Diversification): Increased social support, augmented role of the private sector, comprehensive diversification and enhanced regionalization.
Scenario 3 (Inertial Asymmetry): Selective support measures, inequality-conducive, restricted diversification and limited reforms, “business-as-usual” commodity market, growing regionalization.
Scenario 4 (Unleashed Bazaar): Major institutional reforms, FDI-oriented economic openness, leapfrogging from stagnant to advanced emerging markets.
Increasing urbanization triggered by population growth creates additional challenges in city plan... more Increasing urbanization triggered by population growth creates additional challenges in city planning, prompting governments and municipalities to search for innovative approaches. Smart city initiatives have proven efficient solutions for emerging urban challenges in many developed countries. Smart cities aim to improve living conditions, make more efficient use of physical infrastructure, and promote environmental sustainability. Cities in Central Asia face many urban challenges, including deteriorating and aging infrastructure, traffic congestion, inadequate waste management systems, and pollution. Sustainable urban management strategies are needed to address these challenges as well as to improve citizens' quality of life and welfare in the longer term. This article assesses the potential for introduction of smart city projects in six major cities of Central Asia (Almaty, Astana, Ashgabat, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent), and suggests an integrative framework for subsequent analysis of smart city development in this region.
Since independence the countries of Central Asia embarked upon liberal reforms in their economic ... more Since independence the countries of Central Asia embarked upon liberal reforms in their economic policies, including trade. However, persistence of formal and informal barriers to trade in general, and to services in particular, impedes further liberalization and development of the service industries in both countries. Moreover, existence of these barriers prevents large trade volumes between the neighbouring states. Therefore, it is very important to identify and analyze those barriers within each country.
In the research formal and informal barriers to trade in services in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are first revealed and then assessed. Having identified the barriers it would be possible to provide policy
recommendations for various international organizations and governments of the region with regard to further promotion of trade in services in Central Asia.
The barriers to trade in developing countries constitute one of the major obstacles to economic d... more The barriers to trade in developing countries constitute one of the major obstacles to economic development and growth. This study aims at addressing the issues surrounding the prevalence of informal trade barriers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. While it appears to be logical that the strongest economies of Central Asia should increase trade volume with neighboring countries, in reality the potential for intensifying cross-border trade is barely being realized. This paper attempts to shed light on trade barriers in key industries in both countries, including manufacturing, transport, and agriculture. As can be seen from this study, these industries experience different types of restrictions and varying degrees of state intervention in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The paper places special emphasis on informal barriers and the tools companies use to overcome those barriers. The paper is based on a survey of a total of 108 companies in both countries and the output of a roundtable discussion in Kazakhstan with representatives of companies and other experts in the above-mentioned industries.
Uploads
Papers by Farrukh Irnazarov
• The sanctions regime thus presents both risks and opportunities for the region.
• The short-term risks are likely to be challenging for private firms; however, over the long run, these businesses will be able to adapt and reduce their excessive dependence on Russian imports.
• If not addressed, the collapse of remittances and the return of labor migrants to Central Asia may provoke economic instability in the region.
• The brain drain from Russia and Belarus could greatly benefit Central Asian markets over the long term.
• The sanctions may shift connectivity opportunities from Russia to Central Asia.
Main findings:
· EU companies are the standard-setters and preferred partners for entrepreneurs in Central Asia.
· US business is of high interest for the private sectors in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, though the business culture similarity is lower compared to European and Chinese business cultures.
· There is a knowledge vacuum about US business in the region.
· Chinese companies are widely represented in the least accountable sectors.
· The perceptions of Kazakh and Uzbek entrepreneurs are similar on many accounts.
The top three answers matched in most cases for respondents in the two countries that strengthens the validity of research findings.
The Russian government recognized the importance of migration and liberalized its migration legislation towards citizens of the former USSR and to those who belong to the so-called “Russian world” – speak the Russian language and share Russian values. This was a prudent step to attract skilled and productive migrants and to improve the demographic situation in the country. However, uneven spatial development of the country served as an impediment to attract the best human resources from the CIS countries, as newcomers had to settle in far from major economic centers, such as Moscow and Saint-Petersburg. On the other hand, Russia experienced a big influx of labor migrants from the CIS countries right upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This sporadic and self-organized migration was and has been, conversely, directed to major economic centers, such as Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, Kazan, Kaliningrad, Yekaterinburg, etc.
Thus, Russia has been facing an interesting situation: it was able to attract more skilled migrants to remote areas, while self-governed labor migration streams ended up in major economic centers that created many challenges, such as escalating social tension, security concerns, economic disparities and political disagreements both within and outside the country. Therefore, the Russian experience is worth having a more detailed look and discussing at the global scale.
and corporations) as the major clients and consumers of regional integration have been largely overlooked. This paper scrutinises perceptions among economic actors in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Based on 430 interviews and within the scope of the hypotheses presented, the authors conclude that the majority of economic actors see little or no use in integrating with their neighbours, even though the literature on this issue depicts numerous benefits derived from regional integration. Thus, the authors provide several policy recommendations that should assist in tackling prevalent practices in the countries under investigation.
Scenario 1 (Protectionist Autarky): Stability upheld, limited reforms, increased role of the state and protectionism.
Scenario 2 (Impactful Diversification): Increased social support, augmented role of the private sector, comprehensive diversification and enhanced regionalization.
Scenario 3 (Inertial Asymmetry): Selective support measures, inequality-conducive, restricted diversification and limited reforms, “business-as-usual” commodity market, growing regionalization.
Scenario 4 (Unleashed Bazaar): Major institutional reforms, FDI-oriented economic openness, leapfrogging from stagnant to advanced emerging markets.
In the research formal and informal barriers to trade in services in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are first revealed and then assessed. Having identified the barriers it would be possible to provide policy
recommendations for various international organizations and governments of the region with regard to further promotion of trade in services in Central Asia.
• The sanctions regime thus presents both risks and opportunities for the region.
• The short-term risks are likely to be challenging for private firms; however, over the long run, these businesses will be able to adapt and reduce their excessive dependence on Russian imports.
• If not addressed, the collapse of remittances and the return of labor migrants to Central Asia may provoke economic instability in the region.
• The brain drain from Russia and Belarus could greatly benefit Central Asian markets over the long term.
• The sanctions may shift connectivity opportunities from Russia to Central Asia.
Main findings:
· EU companies are the standard-setters and preferred partners for entrepreneurs in Central Asia.
· US business is of high interest for the private sectors in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, though the business culture similarity is lower compared to European and Chinese business cultures.
· There is a knowledge vacuum about US business in the region.
· Chinese companies are widely represented in the least accountable sectors.
· The perceptions of Kazakh and Uzbek entrepreneurs are similar on many accounts.
The top three answers matched in most cases for respondents in the two countries that strengthens the validity of research findings.
The Russian government recognized the importance of migration and liberalized its migration legislation towards citizens of the former USSR and to those who belong to the so-called “Russian world” – speak the Russian language and share Russian values. This was a prudent step to attract skilled and productive migrants and to improve the demographic situation in the country. However, uneven spatial development of the country served as an impediment to attract the best human resources from the CIS countries, as newcomers had to settle in far from major economic centers, such as Moscow and Saint-Petersburg. On the other hand, Russia experienced a big influx of labor migrants from the CIS countries right upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This sporadic and self-organized migration was and has been, conversely, directed to major economic centers, such as Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, Kazan, Kaliningrad, Yekaterinburg, etc.
Thus, Russia has been facing an interesting situation: it was able to attract more skilled migrants to remote areas, while self-governed labor migration streams ended up in major economic centers that created many challenges, such as escalating social tension, security concerns, economic disparities and political disagreements both within and outside the country. Therefore, the Russian experience is worth having a more detailed look and discussing at the global scale.
and corporations) as the major clients and consumers of regional integration have been largely overlooked. This paper scrutinises perceptions among economic actors in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Based on 430 interviews and within the scope of the hypotheses presented, the authors conclude that the majority of economic actors see little or no use in integrating with their neighbours, even though the literature on this issue depicts numerous benefits derived from regional integration. Thus, the authors provide several policy recommendations that should assist in tackling prevalent practices in the countries under investigation.
Scenario 1 (Protectionist Autarky): Stability upheld, limited reforms, increased role of the state and protectionism.
Scenario 2 (Impactful Diversification): Increased social support, augmented role of the private sector, comprehensive diversification and enhanced regionalization.
Scenario 3 (Inertial Asymmetry): Selective support measures, inequality-conducive, restricted diversification and limited reforms, “business-as-usual” commodity market, growing regionalization.
Scenario 4 (Unleashed Bazaar): Major institutional reforms, FDI-oriented economic openness, leapfrogging from stagnant to advanced emerging markets.
In the research formal and informal barriers to trade in services in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are first revealed and then assessed. Having identified the barriers it would be possible to provide policy
recommendations for various international organizations and governments of the region with regard to further promotion of trade in services in Central Asia.