Papers by Roman Vakulchuk
Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, Nov 1, 2022
Renewable Energy, Nov 1, 2022
Social Science Research Network, 2022
Taylor & Francis eBooks, 2019
Introduction: a new Silk Road for Central Asia The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aimed at conne... more Introduction: a new Silk Road for Central Asia The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aimed at connecting China, Europe and countries located along routes between China and Europe, was suggested by Xi Jinping in September 2013. This Chinese initiative envisages the completion of more than 100 small-and large-scale infrastructure projects that would improve China's connectivity with Western Europe via Central Asia and Russia, including roads, railroads, pipelines, industrial parks, and special economic zones. The five Central Asian states-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan-are an important geographical focus of the project. BRI encompasses nearly half the world's population, vast resources and 40 percent of global GDP (gross domestic product). As of 2017, 68 countries-including the Central Asian states-had expressed an interest in joining BRI. The plan is that the infrastructure will be accompanied by large-scale investment from Chinese companies and institutions such as the Silk Road Foundation with funds of US$40 billion, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with funds of US$100 billion. In addition, Beijing plans to provide development aid to the countries that participate in BRI. There has been a steady increase in the influence of China in Central Asia since the early 1990s (Indeo 2017, p. 37). The total trade turnover between China and Central Asia grew 60-fold between 1991 and 2016, from US$500,000 million to 30 billion, excluding significant informal trade by small-scale entrepreneurs. Currently, 23,000 students from Central Asia study in China and more than 700,000 people travelled between Central Asia and China in 2015 (Forbes 2017a). Because of BRI, China is likely to remain the biggest investor in the region in the future, far exceeding the potential economic footprint of Russia and the West (Laruelle 2018, p. xii). China has also become one of the biggest importers of Central Asian energy resources. After BRI was launched, Beijing rapidly scaled up its public diplomacy and strengthened its soft power presence, especially in education and culture, thus increasingly becoming a norm-setter in Central Asia (Dave 2018, p. 99).
Energy, ecology and environment, Nov 14, 2022
The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southe... more The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To achieve ASEAN's target of 23% renewables in the primary energy supply by 2025, the region would need to invest USD 27 billion in renewable energy every year. However, the ASEAN countries attracted no more than USD 8 billion annually from 2016 to 2021. Through a comparative review of three key factors for attracting investment-renewable energy legislation, energy governance reform, and general conditions for investors-this study examines why the region's renewable energy sector has not attracted more capital. The contribution of the article is threefold. First, it develops a new review model for assessing the business climate for renewable energy in any country. Second, it offers an update on the state of renewable energy deployment in the ASEAN countries. Third, taking into account international best practices, it identifies the obstacles and solutions to attracting investment in renewable energy in Southeast Asia. The article finds that carbon lock-in is pervasive, regulatory practices have been copy-pasted from the fossilfuel sector to the renewables sector, and, except for Malaysia and Vietnam, no ASEAN country has implemented a major pro-renewable energy governance reform. Certain advanced renewable energy measures, such as auctions and feed-in tariffs, have been adopted in some member states, but the institutional capacity to implement them is limited. The share of renewables in the energy governance system needs to be increased. Keywords ASEAN Á Review model Á Renewable energy Á Paris Agreement Á Business climate Á Governance Á Institutional change Energ. Ecol. Environ.
SpringerBriefs in climate studies, 2023
While there is abundant research on the expansion of renewable energy in developed countries, lit... more While there is abundant research on the expansion of renewable energy in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the decarbonisation of energy systems in Central Asia, despite the region's vulnerability to climate change, its rapidly growing domestic energy demand and the abundance of natural resources essential for the energy transition. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the profile and trajectory of research on energy in Central Asia between 1991 and 2022. It finds that there was a shift from focusing on fossil fuels to clean energy around 2019-2020. However, despite recent growth, research on renewables and their significance in Central Asia is still sparse. This review indicates that while American and European researchers took the lead in this field in 2012, China, Japan, Kazakhstan and Russia have emerged as the leading contributors since 2016.
SpringerBriefs in climate studies, 2023
This chapter provides a broad introduction to the impact of climate change in Central Asia, a reg... more This chapter provides a broad introduction to the impact of climate change in Central Asia, a region that has been experiencing a greater rise in temperatures than other parts of the world. The chapter shows how climate change represents a significant threat to Central Asia, exacerbating existing economic and environmental challenges and fueling regional tensions over resource management. Inefficient water resource management at the national level and limited regional collaboration on the management of water resources, coupled with state capacities that remain insufficient to tackle climate change impacts, compound water-related tensions between the countries in the region. The chapter also shows how decarbonisation efforts in Central Asia are still in their early stages, with coal remaining a primary source of energy. Although the Central Asian countries have announced decarbonisation targets and adopted green economy strategies and programmes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a large-scale clean energy transition remains unlikely in the short term. The chapter concludes by identifying a lack of scholarship on climate change in Central Asia, which limits the development of a coherent approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation and evidence-based decision-making in the region. The chapter argues that a more coordinated approach to tackling climate change across the region is needed, requiring closer collaboration and more effective joint management of natural resources by the five Central Asian states. Finally, the chapter presents the chapters in the rest of the book.
SpringerBriefs in Climate Studies
Human mobility impacts the global climate and the climate in turn impacts human mobility. Fuel-ba... more Human mobility impacts the global climate and the climate in turn impacts human mobility. Fuel-based transport emits CO2 and electric transport raises the issue of electricity production and its environmental impacts. Conversely, roads, railways, vehicles and ways of travelling can be impacted by extreme climate events, such as floods, storms, thawing permafrost and melting asphalt. This second aspect of the relationship between climate change and human mobility is rarely explored, even within the scholarship on ‘climate mobility’. Focusing on Central Asia, this chapter presents the specificities of the region regarding the environment–mobilities nexus and highlights the adverse impacts of climate-related mobility disruptions for the populations of the region. The chapter is based on the author’s fieldwork in Central Asia, particularly in Tajikistan, and on press articles and scientific literature on the topic. It discusses the complex relationship between mobilities and climate cha...
The International Spectator
Energy, Ecology and Environment
The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southe... more The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To achieve ASEAN’s target of 23% renewables in the primary energy supply by 2025, the region would need to invest USD 27 billion in renewable energy every year. However, the ASEAN countries attracted no more than USD 8 billion annually from 2016 to 2021. Through a comparative review of three key factors for attracting investment—renewable energy legislation, energy governance reform, and general conditions for investors—this study examines why the region’s renewable energy sector has not attracted more capital. The contribution of the article is threefold. First, it develops a new review model for assessing the business climate for renewable energy in any country. Second, it offers an update on the state of renewable energy deployment in the ASEAN countries. Third, taking into account international best practices, it identifies the obstacles and solutions to at...
This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. D... more This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. While promoting renewable energy, Central Asia continues to rely on and expand the use of coal, natural gas and oil with no major phase-out plans yet on the horizon.
The dataset is based on a broad range of sources, including news media, mining company websites, ... more The dataset is based on a broad range of sources, including news media, mining company websites, official government catalogues, and mineral maps in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources, 2021
The global energy system is currently undergoing a rapid transition, with profound consequences f... more The global energy system is currently undergoing a rapid transition, with profound consequences for the fossil fuel industries, perhaps most notably the one with the highest greenhouse gas emissions-coal. Having played a major role in recent decades, especially in rapidly growing emerging economies such as China and India, coal is being phased out across much of the world, as its environmental and health impacts have become prohibitively costly while its supposed economic advantages are rapidly disappearing as its relative affordability is undermined by the falling cost of renewable energy in many parts of the world (
This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings i... more This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings indicate that trade promotion and industrial development are the sectors where there is most BRI-related activity in Central Asia. The total number of projects in these areas approximates the number of projects in all other areas combined. These sectors also receive most investment. In terms of the number of implemented projects, roads is the second key sector, followed by energy. However, due to larger project sizes, energy receives more funds than roads. The majority of Chinese projects in Central Asia are bilateral.
Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and ... more Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and its Central Asian partners pursue both strategic and commercial goals by promoting projects in the minerals sector. Kazakhstan hosts the largest number of projects and receives the largest amount of Chinese investment. The second largest recipient of financing is Turkmenistan, where several big projects are implemented.
One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provi... more One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provide China with alternative import/export and energy supply routes. This data article shows that the presentation and coverage of BRI projects varies considerably from country to country. The largest number of BRI projects in Central Asia are implemented in Kazakhstan and are in the oil and gas sector. By contrast, Turkmenistan is implementing only a few Chinese energy projects, though they are large-scale and its sum of investment is the second-largest of the Central Asian states
This data article surveys the hydropower potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhsta... more This data article surveys the hydropower potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The dataset presents the theoretical hydropower supply capacity of all the river basins of Central Asia. It was prepared using data from national and international sources, and it provides information on installed small and medium hydropower capacities and planned projects in the above-mentioned countries
The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportun... more The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories. The paper employs the foresight methodology to build four scenarios related to the situation after the lockdown is fully lifted. The scenarios serve the purpose of helping decision makers to embark on informed decisions while shaping anti-crisis measures and better understand causality mechanisms behind their policy choices. Scenario 1 (Protectionist Autarky): Stability upheld, limited reforms, increased role of the state and protectionism. Scenario 2 (Impactful Diversification): Increased social support, augmented role of the private sector, comprehensive diversification and enhanced regionalization. Scenario 3 (Inertial Asymmetry): Selective support measures, inequality-conducive, restricted diversification and limited reforms, “business-as-usual” commodity market, growing regionalization. Scenario 4 (Unleashed Bazaar): Major institutional reforms, FDI-oriented economic openness, leapfrogging from stagnant to advanced emerging markets.
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Papers by Roman Vakulchuk