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    Pert Analysis

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    Subhajit Poria
    Pert analysis of software project

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Pert Analysis

    Uploaded by

    Subhajit Poria
    4 views15 pages
    Pert analysis of software project

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    Pert analysis

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    Pert analysis of software project

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    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    4 views15 pages

    Pert Analysis

    Uploaded by

    Subhajit Poria
    Pert analysis of software project

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 15

    Program Evaluation and

    Review Technique (PERT)


    ■ PERT (Program Evaluation and Review
    Technique)
    – Based on the idea that
    estimates are uncertain
    – Uses ranges and probability and
    provides an expected value to
    determine duration of the project
    – E.g.
    • The most likely completion time is 4 weeks but
    • It could be anywhere between 3 weeks and 8
    weeks
    Evaluating risks to the
    schedule

    Use PERT to evaluate the effects of uncertainty.


    Using single expected duration.
    Using activity standard deviation
    Using likelihood of meeting targets.
    Applying the PERT Technique
    PERT (Program Evaluation Review Technique) takes account of the uncertainties in the
    duration of activities within a project.
    Standard deviation is used as a ranking measure of the degree of uncertainty of risk of
    each activity.
    The Z value is calculated for each node that has a target date.
    Using PERT to evaluate the
    effects of uncertainity
    PERT requires three estimates
    Most likely time (m)
    The time we would expect the task to take under normal circumstances.
    Optimistic time (a)
    Shortest time in which we could expect to complete the task.
    Pessimistic time (b)
    Worst possible time in which we could expect to complete the task.
    Probabilistic Time
    Estimates
    ■ Beta distribution
    – a probability distribution
    traditionally used in CPM/PERT
    Mean (expected a + 4m +
    t= 6
    time): b 2
    b-
    Variance:  2 a6
    where =
    a = optimistic estimate
    m = most likely time
    estimate
    b = pessimistic time
    Activity Time
    Estimates
    TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) MEAN TIME VARIANCE
    ACTIVITY a m b t б2
    1 6 8 10 8 0.44
    2 3 6 9 6 1.00
    3 1 3 5 3 0.44
    4 2 4 12 5 2.78
    5 2 3 4 3 0.11
    6 3 4 5 4 0.11
    7 2 2 2 2 0.00
    8 3 7 11 7 1.78
    9 2 4 6 4 0.44
    10 1 4 7 4 1.00
    11 1 10 13 9 4.00
    Project Network with
    Probabilistic Time
    Estimates: Example
    Equipment
    installation Equipment
    testing and
    1 4 modification
    6,8,10 2,4,12 Syste Final
    m debuggin
    System g
    trainin
    developme 10
    Manu g 1,4,7
    nt 3,7,11
    Start al 8 Finish
    2 testin
    3,6,9 11
    g
    Positio 2,3,4 9 1,10,13
    5
    n 2,4,6
    Job System
    recruiti
    Training changeov
    ng Syste
    6 m er
    3 testin
    3,4,5
    1,3,5 g
    Orientati
    on
    7
    2,2,2
    Activity Early, Late
    Times, and
    ACTIVITY tSlack
    б
    ES
    EF LS LF S
    1 8 1 9 1
    0.44 0 6 0 6 0
    8 1.00 0 3 2 5 2
    2 0.44 0 13 16 21 8
    2.78 8 9 6 9 0
    6 0.11 6 7 5 9 2
    3 0.11 3 5 14 16 11
    0.00 3 16 9 16 0
    3 1.78 9 13 12 16 3
    4 0.44 9 17 21 25 8
    1.00 13 25 16 25 0
    5 4.00 16
    5
    Total project variance

    2 = б22 + б52 + б82 + б112


     = 1.00 + 0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00
    = 6.89 weeks
    Probabilistic Network
    Analysis
    Determine probability that project is
    completed within specified time
    x-
    Z= 
    where
     = tp = project mean time
     = project standard deviation
    x = proposed project time
    Z = number of standard deviations x
    is from mean
    Probability of Completion
    Time
    What is the probability that the project is
    completed
    within 30 weeks?
    P(x  30
    x-
    weeks)  = 6.89 weeks
    2 Z=

     = 6.89
    = 30 - 25
    2.62
     = 2.62 weeks
    = 1.91
     = 25 x = 30 Time (weeks)

    From Z scores Table, a Z score of 1.91 corresponds to a


    probability 0.9719.
    Z
    values
    Probability of Completion
    Time
    What is the probability that the project is
    completed within 22 weeks?
    x-
     2 = 6.89 Z
    P(x  22 
    weeks) weeks =
     = 6.89
    = 22 -
    2.6
     = 2.62 25 2
    weeks
    = -1.14
    x = 22  = Time
    25 (week
    s)
    From Z scores Table, a Z score of -1.14 corresponds to a
    probability of 0.1271
    Z
    values

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