3.

1 SIZE AND TREND OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

Objective
• At the end of this section, students will be able to:
 Compare population size of the world on continental bases
 Identify three leading populous countries in each continent
 Describe population growth trends of the world to show
doubling time
 State the components of population change
 Compare the population trend between Africa and Europe.
 SIZE AND TREND OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

Q. What factors have contributed to the growth of world

population since 5000 BC, about 7000 years ago?

 For most of our history, human populations have been small,

compared to those of other species.
 Studies of hunting and gathering societies (before 5000 BC)
suggest that total world population was probably only a few
million people.
 A major change occurred about 10,000 years ago, when humans
began to domesticate animals.
 SIZE AND TREND OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

 This advance led to increased food supplies, which allowed the

human population to grow, reaching perhaps 50 million people
by 5000 B.C.
 However, for thousands of years, the human population
increased very slowly, and it took more than 1,500 years to
reach the 500 million mark.
 Growth was not steady, but was marked by great fluctuations
dictated by climate, food supply, disease and war.
Table 3.1:
Figure 3.1:
 Size and Trend OF World Population Growth

• Both Table 3.1 and Figure 3.1 show that, by 1900, world
population had reached 1.60 billion, and by 1960 it stood at
3.04 billion.
• The UN estimated that world population reached 6 billion with
an annual growth rate of 1.5% by 2000 A.D.
• The number added to world population per year would increase
from 80 to 90 million if the growth rate of 1.5% continues, and
would double in a period of 40-50 years from about 2000 A.D.
• Such rapid and dramatic growth rate of the world population is
known as population explosion.
 Doubling time

Population growth rate determines the time required for a

population to double.
The lower the growth rate, the longer is the doubling time, and the
higher the growth rate, the shorter is the doubling time
Table 3.2:
 Class work
Answer the following questions, based on Table 3.2 and Figure 3.1.
1. Identify the two continents whose population growth rates
differ the most.
2. Why do you think that Africa experiences the shortest doubling
time in the world?
3. Why is the beginning of the 20th century taken as a turning
point in the history of world population?
(Refer to Table 3.1 and Figure 3.1.)
Population growth in more and less developed countries, 1950 – 2050

Figure 3.2:
Table 3.3: The world’s populous countries in each continent
 Size and Trend OF World Population Growth

• Generally, nations are considered to be less developed if they

have a lower standard of living than the developed nations.
• A large share of the population in less developing countries:
– live at subsistence levels, and
– medical resources are limited.
• However, population growth in less developed nations occurs at
a much faster rate than in the developed nations.
 Size and Trend OF World Population Growth

• As of 2000, 1.2 billion people lived in the developed nations

of the world, and 4.9 billion people lived in the LDCs.
• By region, over half the world’s population was in East and
South Asia:
– China, with 1.3 billion inhabitants
– India with 1.1 billion, and
– Indonesia with 0.23 billion were the dominant contributors.
 Size and Trend OF World Population Growth

• Europe and the countries of the former USSR contained

14% of the world population
• North and South America made up 14%
• Africa had 13%
• Asia 58% and
• the Pacific islands had about 1%
Table 3.4
 Size and Trend OF World Population Growth

• The developed nations represented 20% of the world

population in 2000.
• This percent is expected to fall to 15% by 2050.
• Nine out of every ten persons who are now being added to the
world’s population are living in the LDCs.
 Size and Trend OF World Population Growth

• When we compare the population trends of Africa and

Europe, Africa’s population has increased since 1900.
• It had added about 5.0% of the world population between
1950 and 2000.
• This is expected to increase to 20.3% by 2050.
• Whereas, the population of Europe has shown a trend of
decline by 12.7% in the same period.
• At the end of this section, students will be able to:
 Describe components of population change;
 Compute natural increase rate of the population.
 Components of population change

• What are the components of population change?

 Components of population change are also known as
determinants or dynamics of population change.
 A change in the overall size of a population is the result of the
collective effects of these factors.
• The components of population change are:
– Fertility (birth)
– Mortality (death)
– Migration (immigration & emigration
 Components of population change

• Fertility and mortality are biological factors, while migration

is purely non-biological.
• The combined effect of the three factors controls the
changes in population size and composition.
Components of population change
 Components of population change

• From Figure 3.4, the population size of a particular area is the

result of collective effects of birth, death and migration (here,
“migration” is the net balance of immigration and emigration).
• Immigration and birth are positive factors, which tend to
increase population size,
• while emigration and death are negative factors that reduce
population size.
 Components of population change

Fertility
• What is fertility?
• What factors affect the fertility of a society?
• Fertility is the actual occurrence of live births in a given
population; it is the beginning of life. Specifically, fertility refers
to the actual reproductive performance of a population.
 Components of population change

Measures of fertility
• Fertility is measured most commonly in terms of:
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR),
 General Fertility Rate (GFR) and
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR).
 Components of population change OR

a) Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

• is the most common and simplest index of fertility.
• It is simply the number of live births observed in one year among one
thousand people in a given region.
• It can be expressed as a number of live births per thousand people.

OR

where B is the total number of live births during

a year,
P is mid-year total population and
k is a constant, conventionally 1000.
 Components of population change

Example
1) If the number of live births in a population of 70,686,000 was
270,300, the crude birth rate is
2) If the number of live births in a population of 400,000 was
2500, the crude birth rate is?

weakness of the CBR as a measure of fertility

 it is crude because its denominator includes all persons, regardless
of their contribution to fertility (birth).
 all unmarried persons, including children, are included.
.
 Components of population change
b) General Fertility Rate (GFR):
 It refining the weakness of CBR
 expressing as a percentage of the number of adults or, even
better, of the number of women of reproductive age
(typically defined as between the ages of 15 and 49).
 GFR measures the number of live births in a year per
thousand women of reproductive age.
 Components of population change

OR

 where B is the total number of live births

during a year,
 P1 is mid-year population of women
between 15 and 49 years age and
 k is a constant, conventionally 1000
 Components of population change
Example
• The estimated mid-year population of a given country in 2000
was 50,000,000, of which women in their reproductive ages
constituted one-fifth
• In the course of the year, there were 500,000 live births
• Calculate the general fertility rate of this population.
 Components of population change

What problem of GFR have you noticed from the above example?.
 GFR’s drawback is that it does not account for differences in age
groups.
 Each age group is not equally fertile.
 That is, the child-bearing rate is appreciably higher in the age group of
20-29 than in the 15-19 and 30-49 age groups.
 Class work
Calculate the following:
1) The number of live births for place “A” was 8400, and its mid
year population was 240,000, find CBR.
2) The number of deaths for place “B” was 170,300, and its mid
year population was 10,296,000. Calculate CDR.
3) The estimated mid-year population of a given country in 2000
was 100,000,000, of which women in their reproductive ages
constituted 25%.
In the course of the year, there were 600,000 live births.
Find the general fertility rate of the population.
4) Calculate the crude birth rates for the following two
hypothetical regions, A and B:
i) The number of live births and mid-year population in region A
were 4,500 and 160,000, respectively.
ii) For region B, the number of live births was 20,500, and mid-
year population was 2,500,000.
5) Work out the general fertility rates (GFR) for two hypothetical
regions, F and G.
i) In region F, the number of newborn children was 73,060 and
the number of women aged 15 – 49 years was 826,000.
ii) In region G, the number of live births was 50,000, and the
number of women aged 15 – 49 years was 950,000.
 Components of population change

C) Age specific fertility rate (ASFR)- obtained by calculating

the ratio of all births of a given age group and female
population of that age group
 Components of population change

• Formula:
• (ΣASBR) × 5, where Σ is summation of, ASBR is each five-year
age-specific birth rate defined as

 where Bx is the number of live births to mothers of age x and

Px is the number of resident women age x.
 The values or age group represented by Bx 15 - 19, 20 - 24, 25 - 29,
30 - 34, 35 - 39, 40 - 44 and 45+. The values or age groups represented
by Px are 15 - 19, 20 - 24, 25 - 29, 30 - 34, 35 - 39, 40 - 44 and 45 - 49
years.
 The sum of these ASBRs is multiplied by 5 because each ASBR
represents a five-year cohort of women.
 Components of population change
D) Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• What makes TFR different from the other measures of fertility?
 TFR is the average number of children that would be born alive
to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through all
her child-bearing years.
 This happens if the group under question passed through its
reproductive span of life with these birth rates in each year of
age.
 Components of population change

• It is generally known as an effective summary rate for

describing the frequency of child bearing in a year.
• TFR is useful when comparison is made, for it is standardized
for age and is a single summary measure.
• It is helpful for comparing the fertility performance of
different populations or social groups.
 Components of population change

• TFR is the sum of the age-specific birth rates (5-year age groups
between 15 and 49) for female residents of a specific geographic
area (example: country, kelil, zone, kefle-ketema, woreda kebele,
etc.) during a specified time period (usually a calendar year)
multiplied by 5.
 Components of population change

• This rate estimates the number of children a hypothetical

cohort (person of same age group) of 1000 females in the
specified population would bear if they all went through
their childbearing years experiencing the same ASBRs for a
specified time period.
Class work
Figure 3.5: Differences regarding birth rates (fertility), in developing
and developed countries
 Factors of Fertility Distribution
• Various factors affect fertility distribution in the world including.
• According to the UN the basic conditions that must be met to
reduce birth are:-
 Improved status of women, including their rights to decide
between the use of birth control and having children.
 Improved educational levels regarding family planning,
particularly for women. Also improved access to family-
planning supplies.
 Health care
 Components of population change
2) Mortality
• Mortality is the occurrence of death.
• Mortality rates, though decreasing worldwide, are higher in the
developing countries than in the developed ones.
• This difference is mainly due to:
– variations in standards of living
– nutrition
– medical services
– personal hygiene and
– environmental sanitation.
 Components of population change
Measures of Mortality
• Mortality can be measured in a number of ways, including crude
death rate(CDR) infant mortality rate (IMR), MMR and CMR.
a) Crude death rate (CDR)
 is the ratio of the total registered deaths of a specified year in a
region to the total mid-year population, multiplied by 1000.

OR
 Components of population change

Example
1) In a hypothetical region, the total number of deaths observed in
2006 was 60,000, and the total mid-year population was
12,000,000. Therefore, the resulting CDR was:
CDR = 60,000/12 000 000 × 1000 = 5/1000
 This number indicates that the deaths of 5 persons were
observed for each 1000 people.
2) In a hypothetical region, the total number of deaths observed in
2007 was 90,000, and the total mid-year population was 3
million. Therefore, the resulting CDR was:
 Components of population change

b) Infant mortality rate (IMR)

 is the number of deaths of infants under the age of one year, per
1000 live births, in a given year.
 Components of population change
Example:
1) A total of 400,000 babies were born in a certain region in
2010. Of these newborns, 340,000 babies survived their first
year of life. Calculate the IMR of this region.
Deaths under age one: 400,000 - 340,000 = 60,000 babies
IMR = 60 000/400 000 × 1 000 = 150/1000
• Out of 1000 children born in the year 2010, about 150 infants
died before celebrating their first year of life.
2) A total of 500,000 babies were born in a certain region in
2009. Of these newborns, 450,000 babies survived their first
year of life. Calculate the IMR of this region.
 Components of population change

• IMR is a good indicator of the level of development of any country.

• In countries with better living conditions, for example, countries in
Europe, mortality is comparatively low.
• In contrast, the less developed countries (example, most African
countries, including Ethiopia), infant mortality is quite high, due to:
– malnutrition
– various diseases and
– poor environmental sanitation.
 Components of population change

• Life expectancy is the number of years a newborn is expected

to live.
• It tends to increase with standard of living.
• Countries with highest life expectancy are Japan (82), Australia
(81), France (81), Iceland (81), Sweden (81). Countries with
lowest life expectancy are Swaziland (33), Botswana (34),
Lesotho (36), Zimbabwe (37), Zambia (38)
Class work
 Components of population change

3) Migration
• Migration involves movement of people and thereby influences
both the rate of growth and distribution of population.
• The most common measures of migration that can affect
population growth of an area include:
– Immigration Rate (IR)
– Emigration Rate (ER)
– Net Migration Rate (NMR)
 Components of population change

a) Immigration Rate (IM): it is the number of people arriving at a

destination per 1000 people in a given year.

b) Emigration Rate (EM): it is the number of departing people

from an area of origin per 1000 people of the area of origin in a
given year.
 Components of population change

c) Net Migration Rate (NMR): shows the net effect (balance)

of immigration and emigration in an area.
- It can be expressed as an increase or decrease per 1000 people
in the area in a given year.
 Example
1) Suppose the number of emigrants and immigrants of country
‘A’ are 40,000 and 250,000 respectively. If the total population
is 105 million, what is the NMR for country ‘A’?
NMR = 250,000 - 40,000/105,000 × 1000 =
2/1000 (i.e. 2 per thousand population)

2) Suppose the number of emigrants and immigrants of country

‘B’ are 50,000 and 300,000 respectively. If the total population
is 120 million, what is the NMR for country ‘B’?
 Measures of population change

• In order to calculate the change in the total population size of a

particular nation or place one has to use the following formula
i) Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) - it is the
difference between birth and death rates - Hence, it is a
naturally caused numerical change of a population which results
from the interplay between fertility and mortality. It is
expressed as:
RNI = BR – DR
Example
1) If the birth rate and death rate of a certain country were 50
per thousand and 28 per thousand, respectively, what was the
rate of natural increase (RNI)?
RNI = BR – DR =
50/1,000 – 28/1,000
22/1,000,
= 2.2%
• That is, 22 per thousand population or 2.2 per hundred people.
 Measures of population change
ii) Population Growth Rate (PGR):
- in order to find the growth rate of a population, we
consider net migration rate and rate of natural increase .
PGR = BR – DR ± NMR
= RNI ± NMR
Example
1) If the RNI of place ‘Y’ is 2.2% and the NMR is 2/1000,
find the population growth rate for place ‘Y’.
 Class work
1) If the RNI of place ‘X’ is 6.5% and the NMR is 25/1000, find
the population growth rate for place ‘X’.
2) Assume that the population of country Y was 30 million in
1980 census and 36 million in 1990 census. What was the
annual rate of population growth between the two census
periods? What was the population of the country in 1985?
3) Supposing the birth rate and death rate of a certain country
to be 47 per thousand and 18 per thousand, respectively,
calculate the rate of natural increase (RNI).
 4) If the rate of natural increase of place “A” is 3.1% and the
net migration rate is 20/1000, find the growth rate of
population for place “A”.
5) The population of Ethiopia was reported as 53 million and
73 million in 1994 and 2007, respectively. What was the
annual rate of population growth between the two census
periods. Use the formula given below.

where Po is mid-year population at the beginning of the period,

P1 is population at the end of the period and
t is the number of years between the two periods.
 Objective
At the end of this section, students will be able to:
 Interpret population pyramids of developed and developing
countries
 compare the characteristics of population structure between
developed and developing countries;
 Population Structure

• What is population structure?

• How do population structures differ between developed
and developing countries?
 Population Structure

 The structure of a population is the distribution of males and

females within different age groups
 Sex and age structures
 are basic characteristics and biological attributes of a population &
 they affect demographic as well as socio-economic situations.
 Data on population age-sex structure is ideally collected
through census.
 Population Structure

A population pyramid
• also called age structure diagram, is a graphical illustration
• It shows the distribution of various age groups of each sex
• the population plotted on the x-axis and age on the y-axis, one
showing the number of males and the other showing females in
a particular population of five-year age groups (also called
cohorts).
• Males are conventionally shown on the left and females on the
right.
 population structure

 Population pyramids are the most effective way to graphically

depict the age and sex distribution of a population.
 Population is divided into age groups of five-year intervals (0-4,
5-9, 10-14, etc.) for each sex.
 The population of a given country can be further grouped into
three categories (segments) of the population consisting of:
• young dependents (0-14)
• elderly dependents (65+) and
• the working age groups (economically active) (15-65 years of age).
Figure 3.6:Typical examples of population pyramids of developing
(a) and developed (b) countries
 Population Structure

 The proportion of the three age groups varies from region to

region and among countries.
 Most developing countries have a large proportion of their
population in the young age group.
 But in developed countries, people in the adult and old age
group account for the largest proportions of the population.
 As a result, the shape of the population pyramids of the two
groups of countries is not the same
 Home work
1) What types of population pyramid are depicted in Fig 3.6 a & b?
2) Which of the two population pyramids (Figure 3.6 a and b)
indicate high birth and death rates?
3) On the two pyramids, identify the age intervals of the three
population segments: young dependents, economically
independent people and elderly dependents.
4) Which of the two population pyramids shows a smaller
population for the working ages, compared to the two
dependent age groups?
Based on Figure 3.6. complete the table given below.
 Population Pyramid

• Observing different characteristics of a population pyramid

can tell you a lot about the population it presents.
Age distribution of the world population and of selected countries
(2010)
 Sex Structure or Composition

What is sex structure?

• A population pyramid also tells how many people of each sex
live in an area.
• This statistic is defined in terms of what is called sex-ratio (SR)
• It is the number of males per 100 females, or otherwise- for
example, the number of females per 100 males.
• Sex ratio is expressed in percentage or ratio form.
Sex Structure or Composition

Where SR is sex ratio which may also be referred to

as masculinity ratio Pm stands for the total number
of males, and Pf stands for total number of females.

This is also possible and gives the number of

females per 100 males. This can be called
femininity ratio as well as sex ratio.
Example:
1) Say total students of a given school was 5000. Out of this 3000
were females. What was sex-ratio of student population?
 Dependency Ratio

• What is dependency ratio?

• Why do we need to know about dependency ratio?
 The working age of people varies
 Traditionally people worked until they were 65 years old.
 The common trend now is for people to retire closer to 55 years of
age.
 However, for statistical purposes, we recognize people between 15
and 65 as the workers of a society.
 People under 15 and over 65 are considered dependent upon the
working population.
 The age dependency ratio (ADR) of a population indicates how
many people are dependent upon every 100 workers.
 Dependency Ratio

OR

ADR =
Class work
 Home work
1. What does the vertical axis on population pyramids
represent?
2. What type of population pyramid is indicative of a developing
country?
3. What does a narrow base on a population pyramid indicate?
4. What type of population is shown in a pyramid that has a
triangular shape?