Population Dynamics
Population Dynamics
Population Dynamics
I. Is the branch of life sciences that studies the size and age composition of populations as dynamical systems,
and the biological and environmental processes driving them such as birth and death rates, and by
immigration and emigration.
2. Population Control
Is the total number of live births per 1,000 in a population in a year or period not taking into account the age-specific
group or cohort.
In 2016, crude birth rates ranged from 8 per 1,000 in countries such as Japan, Italy, Republic of Korea, and Portugal to
48 in Niger.
In 2017, a total of 1,700,618 live births was registered which is equivalent to a crude birth rate (CBR) of 16.2 or 16
births per thousand population.
The number of registered live births showed a decreasing trend, noticeably from 2012 to 2017. The decrease in the last
five years was 5.0 percent, from 1,790,367 live births in 2012 to 1,700,618 recorded births in 2017.
FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY RATE
I. Total Fertility rate
Total fertility rate (TFR) in simple terms refers to total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her
life time if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population.
II. REPLACEMENT RATE
Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from generation to
generation.
In developed countries, replacement level fertility can be taken as an average of 2.1 per woman. Since replacement
cannot occur if a child does not grow to maturity and have their own offspring, the need for the extra 0.1 child (a 5
percent buffer) per woman is due to the potential for death and factors in those who choose or are unable to have
children. In less developed countries, the replacement rate is around 2.3 because of higher childhood and adult death
rates.
III. INFANT MORTALITY RATE
In some countries where the infant mortality rate high, families would tend to have more children to compensate for
the expected deaths.
Reported deaths in 2017 reached 579,237, a decrease of 0.5 percent than the previous year’s 582,183 deaths. This is
equivalent to a crude death rate (CDR) of 5.5, or about six (6) persons per thousand population.
The number of deaths from 2008 to 2016 showed an increasing trend but slightly declined in 2017. The increase during
the ten-year period is about a quarter, or 25.5 percent, from 461,581 in 2008 to 579,237 in 2017.
FACTORS AFFECTING MORTALITY RATE
I. LIFE EXPECTANCY/AGE PROFILE
The term “life expectancy” refers to the number of years a person can expect to live. By definition, life expectancy is
based on an estimate of the average age that members of a particular population group will be when they die.
II. INFANT MORTALITY RATE
The number of deaths of children under the age of 1 per 1000 live births per year.
III. DEMOGRAPHICS
• AGE DISTRIBUTION
The higher the proportion of old people to young people, the higher the death rate since older people are more likely
to die.
• GENDER
Women generally have a higher life expectancy than men, possibly due to the lifestyle or biological differences
preventing certain diseases.
IV. ECONOMIC FACTORS
• OCCUPATION
In some countries people may be employed in dangerous occupations increasing the death rate e.g. Timber cutters in
America with 105 deaths in 2000.
• INCOME
Low income levels correlate to a low life expectancy whilst high income levels correlate with a high life expectancy. This
is because a high income allows people to afford medical care, higher standards of living and healthier foods,
prolonging their life.
• EDUCATION
Areas with high literacy levels have higher life expectancies whereas areas with low literacy rates have low life
expectancies. The reasoning behind this is that when people can read & write, they can obtain higher paying jobs and
therefore receive a higher income improving their life expectancy.
In addition, when people can read they can read information on preventing the spread of disease and basic hygiene
standards improving life expectancy.
V. HEALTH FACTOR
• ACCESS TO FOOD
Countries with a lack of food have low life expectancies since the people suffer from malnutrition and are more
susceptible to diseases due to a weakened immune system increasing the mortality rates.
• MEDICAL FACILITIES
Access to vaccination programs helps to prolong life expectancy and prevent the spread of diseases. Equipment such as
mosquito nets also help prolong life expectancy. Access to medical clinics and doctors will also help to substantially
lower the death rate.
HEALTH RELATED ISSUES (HIV/AIDS, CANCER, PNEUMONIA)
VI. POLITICAL FACTOR
• TERRORISM
Generally would cause a massive number of deaths and distraction. War and conflict would also affects agricultural
land and properties which would lead to poverty.
VII. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR
• WATER SANITATION
• FOOD SUPPLY
• NATURAL CALAMITIES
MIGRATION
• IMMIGRATION - The immigration rate is the number of individuals who move into a population from a different
area per unit time.
• EMIGRATION - The emigration rates describe the numbers of individuals who migrate out of the population per
unit time.
THE PROBLEM OF OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulation is an undesirable condition where the number of existing human population exceeds the carrying
capacity of Earth.
China and India recently released the findings of their latest censuses, giving the world a glimpse of how these two
population behemoths are realigning in numbers and rates of growth. According to the projections by the Population
Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, in 2025. India, with 1.46 billion people, will
have overtaken China, with 1.39 billion, as the world’s most populous nation. China’s population will then, based on
the medium variant, decline to about 1.3 billion by 2050. India will continue to grow to about 1.7 billion by 2060 before
beginning to decline.
CAUSES OF OVERPOPULATION
I. DECLINE IN THE DEATH RATE: IMPROVED MEDICAL FACILITIES
The invention of vaccines and discovery of antibiotics such as penicillin saved thousands of lives and were a key factor
in unfettered population growth. As the number of annual deaths fell, while births remained constant, so the
population increased.
II. PROGRESS IN FOOD PRODUCTION
Scientific research and technological improvements saw more efficient agricultural production, resulting in year-round
crops, more resistant seeds, and pesticides. Improvements In fishing and livestock methods also contributed to the
provision of more food with which to nourish the population.
III. SOCIAL AGENCIES AND GOVERNMENT’S FUNDING AND ASSISTANCE.
MORE CHILD= MORE MONEY
For thousands of years, a very small part of the population had enough money to live in comfort. The rest faced
poverty and would give birth to large families to make up for the high infant mortality rate. So the government and
other social agency have to give assistance, financially to support the society’s main issue. But the hidden counterpart
is that, lots of families are procreating because of the assistance itself.
IV. TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT IN FERTILITY TREATMENT
Today there are effective medicines which can increases the chance of conception and lead to rise in birth rate.
Moreover, due to modern techniques pregnancies today are far safer.
V. LACK OF FAMILY PLANNING
Most developing nations have large number of people who are illiterate, live below the poverty line and have little or
no knowledge about family planning. Getting their children married at an early age increase the chances of producing
more kids. Those people are unable to understand the harmful effects of overpopulation and lack of quality education
prompts them to avoid family planning measures.
VI. IMMIGRATION
Many people prefer to move to developed countries like US, UK, Canada and Saudi Arabia where best facilities are
available in terms of medical, education, security and employment. The end result is that those people settle over there
and those places become overcrowded.
POSITIVE EFFECTS OF OVERPOPULATION
• DEFENSE
Large Population makes it possible to mobilize enough people to defend the integrity of the country in times of war and
any other emergencies.
• INCREASE IN LABOR MARKET
Increasing population ensures increase in the labor force. Lack of growth in the labor force will make a country static,
retarded and gets to equilibrium at less than full employment level of the economy.
• LARGE MARKET
Investors would like to invest in a country with a large population. As the population continues to grow so will be the
growth in demand for food, shelter, clothing etc.
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF OVERPOPULATION
• DEPLETION OF NATURAL RESOURCES
Pressure on resources like food and water would increase. Food and fresh water supplies would be inadequate which
would result in malnutrition and lowered resistance to diseases.
• ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS
Growth in the population would take its toll on the land, increasing the demand for area which would lead to
deforestation or loss of natural habitat. Industrialization and urbanization would increase the global pollutions levels
too, causing imbalances in the atmosphere and global warming.
• UNEMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY
Large populations strain the economy and wouldn’t be able to support themselves due to the scarcity of jobs. A
majority of the population would be subjected to poverty and high cost of living due to the sheer pressure on the
economy.
• CONFLICTS AND WARS
Individuals fighting over resources and space end up killing each other on a massive scale due to the introduction of
nuclear and chemical warfare which has a negative effect on the overall population of an area or region.
• HEALTH AND SANITATION
Haphazard land use and poor infrastructure would lower the quality of health conditions and overall sanitation or
hygiene. Inadequate or inaccessible medical facilities would have a negative impact on demographic characteristics.
• IMBALANCE IN TRADE
Growing numbers and limited food would lead to an increase in imports which would send economies spiraling into
debt.
THE PROBLEM OF UNDERPOPULATION
Under population is a situation whereby the size of the population is small in relation to available resources of the
country. It is situation where the size of the population is below the equilibrium.
Malthus' predictions never came true. He would be surprised that almost 200 years later the world's population is
much larger and, for the most part, better off. There have been famines, but they have had more to do with local
conditions and politics than with the inability of Earth's resources to support the population. Malthus did not foresee
that pesticides, machines, refrigeration, and other technical advances would make it possible to feed enormous
numbers of people very well. Except in cases influenced by war and political repression, starvation is rarely a
widespread problem these days; in advanced nations, obesity is a far greater threat to health than starvation. Life
expectancy in the developed countries has nearly doubled, from 40 years in the 18th century to well over 70 years
now.
John S. Morton, Jane S. Shaw
and Richard L. Stroup