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    PDroogers MENA AdaptCC v02

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    Habib Shinwari
    This study analyzed water supply and demand in the MENA region from 2010 to 2050 under different climate change scenarios using the WEAP modeling framework. Results showed water demand is projected to increase substantially due to population and economic growth while available supply is expected to decrease due to climate change, resulting in a large water shortage of up to 306 billion cubic meters by 2050. A range of adaptation strategies were evaluated, with the most cost-effective options including improving agricultural practices, wastewater reuse, and desalination. The total costs of adaptation were estimated to be US$47 billion by 2050.

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    PDroogers MENA AdaptCC v02

    Uploaded by

    Habib Shinwari
    29 views33 pages
    This study analyzed water supply and demand in the MENA region from 2010 to 2050 under different climate change scenarios using the WEAP modeling framework. Results showed water demand is projected to increase substantially due to population and economic growth while available supply is expected to decrease due to climate change, resulting in a large water shortage of up to 306 billion cubic meters by 2050. A range of adaptation strategies were evaluated, with the most cost-effective options including improving agricultural practices, wastewater reuse, and desalination. The total costs of adaptation were estimated to be US$47 billion by 2050.

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    This study analyzed water supply and demand in the MENA region from 2010 to 2050 under different climate change scenarios using the WEAP modeling framework. Results showed water demand is projected to increase substantially due to population and economic growth while available supply is expected to decrease due to climate change, resulting in a large water shortage of up to 306 billion cubic meters by 2050. A range of adaptation strategies were evaluated, with the most cost-effective options including improving agricultural practices, wastewater reuse, and desalination. The total costs of adaptation were estimated to be US$47 billion by 2050.

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    29 views33 pages

    PDroogers MENA AdaptCC v02

    Uploaded by

    Habib Shinwari
    This study analyzed water supply and demand in the MENA region from 2010 to 2050 under different climate change scenarios using the WEAP modeling framework. Results showed water demand is projected to increase substantially due to population and economic growth while available supply is expected to decrease due to climate change, resulting in a large water shortage of up to 306 billion cubic meters by 2050. A range of adaptation strategies were evaluated, with the most cost-effective options including improving agricultural practices, wastewater reuse, and desalination. The total costs of adaptation were estimated to be US$47 billion by 2050.

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    MENA Water Outlook 2050

    Water Scarcity and Adaptation


    Options
    Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers
    Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo

    Study Design
    Objectives
    Detailed water supply and demand analysis 2010-2050
    Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage

    Steps

    Climate and other change projections


    Hydrological impact model
    Water resources supply/demand analysis
    Cost and benefits adaptation options

    Limitations
    Large scale so simplifications, generalizations

    WEAP Modeling Framework


    WEAP modeling setup

    22 countries
    Streams, Reservoirs, Groundwater
    Irrigation, Domestic, Industry
    2000-2050
    3 climate change models
    Results from hydrological model

    Catchment

    Reservoir

    Irrigation

    Urban

    Industry

    Groundwater

    Outlet

    RESULTS: DEMANDS

    Results

    2000

    2010

    2020

    Demand curves MENA (AVG)

    2030

    2040

    2050

    Results
    Demand curves MENA (DRY)

    2000

    2010

    2020

    2030

    2040

    2050

    2030

    2040

    2050

    Demand curves MENA (WET)

    2000

    2010

    2020

    Results

    Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)

    Results

    Demand and Supply


    Curves MENA (DRY)

    Demand and Supply


    Curves MENA (WET)

    Iran

    Morocco

    Yemen

    Egypt

    Water Demand-Shortage
    (MCM)
    Algeria
    Bahrain
    Djibouti
    Egypt
    Gaza Strip
    Iran
    Iraq
    Israel
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Libya
    Malta
    Morocco
    Oman
    Qatar
    Saudi Arabia
    Syria
    Tunisia
    U.A. Emirates
    West Bank
    Yemen
    MENA

    Demand
    2000-2009
    6,356
    226
    28
    55,837
    162
    79,703
    43,968
    3,140
    1,113
    508
    1,202
    4,125
    88
    15,739
    891
    489
    21,733
    16,183
    2,772
    3,370
    403
    5,819
    263,853

    Demand
    2020-2030
    8,786
    321
    46
    70,408
    299
    92,310
    57,130
    4,619
    1,528
    867
    1,525
    4,974
    122
    19,357
    1,544
    602
    26,667
    19,446
    3,985
    3,495
    652
    8,162
    326,842

    Demand
    2040-2050
    12,336
    391
    84
    87,681
    527
    110,081
    71,113
    6,081
    2,276
    1,216
    1,869
    5,982
    148
    24,223
    2,807
    641
    35,257
    24,418
    5,916
    3,389
    1,061
    19,065
    416,562

    Unmet
    2000-2009
    0
    195
    0
    2,858
    140
    11,325
    7,272
    2,118
    853
    0
    141
    0
    34
    2,092
    0
    234
    10,572
    873
    0
    3,036
    256
    1,262
    43,265

    Unmet
    2020-2030
    8
    304
    0
    22,267
    283
    29,721
    26,907
    3,733
    1,338
    310
    471
    1,399
    80
    9,175
    663
    418
    18,146
    4,539
    17
    3,203
    555
    3,540
    127,078

    Unmet
    2040-2050
    3,925
    377
    0
    32,085
    505
    51,753
    43,096
    5,130
    2,061
    788
    876
    3,625
    107
    15,381
    2,194
    481
    28,535
    9,498
    2,853
    3,173
    957
    14,289
    221,691

    MCM/year; average climate change

    ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

    Water Marginal Cost Curves


    Closing supply-demand gap:
    Increasing the productivity
    Expanding supply
    Reducing demand

    Water marginal costs curves


    Assumptions:
    Net present value (US$ 2010)

    Strategies
    Increasing the productivity:
    A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)
    B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry
    C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture

    Expanding supply:

    D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)


    E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)
    F: Desalination by means of using solar energy
    G: Desalination by means of reverse osmosis

    Reducing demand:
    H: Reduce irrigated areas
    I: Reduce domestic and industrial supply

    Strategies (increase productivity)


    A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop
    varieties)
    Typical examples:

    drip and sprinkler irrigation


    no-till farming
    improved drainage
    utilization of the best available germplasm or other seed development
    optimizing fertilizer use
    innovative crop protection technologies
    extension services

    Costs
    US$ 0.01 per m3
    = US$ 100 per ha per year

    Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:


    Egypts Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP) US$ 100 per ha per year
    2030 Water Resources Group US$ 0.02 0.03 per m3

    Strategies (increase productivity)


    B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and
    industry
    Costs
    US$ 0.30 per m3

    Note: costs can vary substantially.


    What to do with reused water (industry, irrigation)

    Strategies (increase productivity)


    C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture
    Assumptions

    Reuse only for agriculture


    No water treatment system
    Only operational and investment costs
    50 mm per year

    Costs
    Total: US$ 0.04 per m3
    50% annualized capital costs of investment
    50% operational costs (maintenance, some pumping)

    Strategies (expanding supply)


    D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)
    E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)
    Costs
    0.03 $/m3 for small scale
    0.05 $/ m3 for large scale

    Note: costs can vary substantially


    sand dams in Kitui District, Kenya 0.04 $/m3
    Aslantis Dam, Turkey 0.035 $/m3

    Strategies (expanding supply)


    F: Desalinisation using solar energy (CSP)
    G: Desalination using reverse osmosis
    Assumptions
    Details see presentation by Fichtner

    Costs
    CSP 0.70 $/m3 to 0.35 $/m3 in 2030 and 2050
    Reverse osmosis 0.50 $/m3

    Note: costs can vary substantially


    Especially energy

    Reverse
    Osmoses

    Multi Effect
    Distillation

    SWRO = Sea Water Reverse Osmoses


    MSF = Multi Stage Flash
    MED = Multi Effect Distillation

    Strategies (reducing demand)


    H: Reduce irrigated areas
    Assumptions
    Reduce irrigated areas by 10%

    Costs
    0.10 $/m3 (Value of irrigation water (Water Productivity) between 0.05 and 0.15
    $/m3.

    Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:


    Crops
    Irrigation method
    Climate

    Virtual Water Trade

    RESULTS

    Water Supply and Demand


    MENA region
    KM3 PER YEAR
    DEMAND

    AVG

    CC Scenario
    DRY

    WET

    2000-2009 2040-2050 2040-2050 2040-2050


    264
    417
    435
    398

    Irrigation
    Domestic
    Industry

    213
    28
    23

    265
    88
    64

    283
    88
    64

    246
    88
    64

    UNMET DEMAND

    43

    222

    306

    104

    Irrigation
    Domestic
    Industry

    36
    4
    3

    144
    45
    34

    204
    58
    44

    61
    22
    21

    221

    189

    130

    283

    171
    50

    150
    39

    99
    31

    228
    55

    SUPPLY
    Surface water
    Groundwater

    MENA: Water Marginal Costs Curves

    All values in 2010 US$


    net present value

    Egypt

    Saudi Arabia

    Adaptation Costs (2050, average climate)


    Algeria
    Algeria
    Algeria
    Bahrain
    Bahrain
    Bahrain
    Djibouti
    Djibouti
    Djibouti
    Egypt
    Egypt
    Egypt
    Gaza
    Strip
    Gaza
    Gaza
    Strip
    Strip
    Iran
    Iran
    Iran
    Iraq
    Iraq
    Iraq
    Israel
    Israel
    Israel
    Jordan
    Jordan
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Kuwait
    Kuwait
    Lebanon
    Lebanon
    Lebanon
    Libya
    Libya
    Libya
    Malta
    Malta
    Malta
    Morocco
    Morocco
    Morocco
    Oman
    Oman
    Oman
    Qatar
    Qatar
    Qatar
    Saudi
    Arabia
    Saudi
    Saudi
    Arabia
    Arabia
    Syria
    Syria
    Syria
    Tunisia
    Tunisia
    Tunisia
    U.A.
    Emirates
    U.A.
    U.A.
    Emirates
    Emirates
    West
    Bank
    West
    West
    Bank
    Bank
    Yemen
    Yemen
    Yemen

    MENA
    MENA
    MENA

    Shortage
    Costs
    Shortage
    Shortage
    Costs
    Costs
    MCM
    million
    US$
    MCM
    MCM million
    million
    US$
    US$
    3,925
    3,925
    3,925
    353535
    377
    130
    377
    377
    130
    130
    00 0
    00 0
    32,085
    4,000
    32,085
    32,085
    4,000
    4,000
    505
    200
    505
    505
    200
    200
    51,753
    6,000
    51,753
    51,753
    6,000
    6,000
    43,096
    12,000
    43,096
    43,096
    12,000
    12,000
    5,130
    1,800
    5,130
    5,130
    1,800
    1,800
    2,061
    750
    2,061
    2,061
    750
    750
    788
    250
    788
    788
    250
    250
    876
    200
    876
    876
    200
    200
    3,625
    700
    3,625
    3,625
    700
    700
    107
    107
    107
    353535
    15,381
    4,000
    15,381
    15,381
    4,000
    4,000
    2,194
    700
    2,194
    2,194
    700
    700
    481
    150
    481
    481
    150
    150
    28,535
    9,000
    28,535
    28,535
    9,000
    9,000
    9,498
    1,250
    9,498
    9,498
    1,250
    1,250
    2,853
    200
    2,853
    2,853
    200
    200
    3,173
    1,100
    3,173
    3,173
    1,100
    1,100
    957
    325
    957
    957
    325
    325
    14,289
    4,200
    14,289
    14,289
    4,200
    4,200

    221,691
    221,691
    221,691

    47,025
    47,025
    47,025

    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    Costs
    US$/m3
    US$/capita
    %GDP
    2010
    %GDP
    2050
    US$/m3
    US$/m3 US$/capita
    US$/capita %GDP
    %GDP
    2010
    2010 %GDP
    %GDP
    2050
    2050
    0.01
    0.02
    0.01
    0.01
    11 1
    0.02
    0.02
    0.00
    0.00
    0.00
    0.34
    1.15
    0.34
    0.34
    969696
    1.15
    1.15
    0.11
    0.11
    0.11
    0.00
    0.00
    0.00
    0.00
    00 0
    0.00
    0.00
    0.00
    0.00
    0.00
    0.12
    3.27
    0.12
    0.12
    272727
    3.27
    3.27
    0.33
    0.33
    0.33
    0.40
    108
    0.40
    0.40
    108
    108
    0.12
    1.76
    0.12
    0.12
    565656
    1.76
    1.76
    0.18
    0.18
    0.18
    0.28
    196
    8.71
    0.28
    0.28
    196
    196
    8.71
    8.71
    0.87
    0.87
    0.87
    0.35
    171
    1.21
    0.35
    0.35
    171
    171
    1.21
    1.21
    0.12
    0.12
    0.12
    0.36
    6.59
    0.36
    0.36
    717171
    6.59
    6.59
    0.66
    0.66
    0.66
    0.32
    0.48
    0.32
    0.32
    474747
    0.48
    0.48
    0.05
    0.05
    0.05
    0.23
    2.49
    0.23
    0.23
    393939
    2.49
    2.49
    0.25
    0.25
    0.25
    0.19
    0.80
    0.19
    0.19
    646464
    0.80
    0.80
    0.08
    0.08
    0.08
    0.33
    0.99
    0.33
    0.33
    777777
    0.99
    0.99
    0.47
    0.47
    0.47
    0.26
    5.47
    0.26
    0.26
    727272
    5.47
    5.47
    0.54
    0.54
    0.54
    0.32
    2.35
    0.32
    0.32
    969696
    2.35
    2.35
    0.23
    0.23
    0.23
    0.31
    161
    0.72
    0.31
    0.31
    161
    161
    0.72
    0.72
    0.07
    0.07
    0.07
    0.32
    154
    3.04
    0.32
    0.32
    154
    154
    3.04
    3.04
    0.30
    0.30
    0.30
    0.13
    3.59
    0.13
    0.13
    353535
    3.59
    3.59
    0.36
    0.36
    0.36
    0.07
    0.21
    0.07
    0.07
    131313
    0.21
    0.21
    0.02
    0.02
    0.02
    0.35
    253
    3.16
    0.35
    0.35
    253
    253
    3.16
    3.16
    0.31
    0.31
    0.31
    0.34
    104
    0.27
    0.34
    0.34
    104
    104
    0.27
    0.27
    0.03
    0.03
    0.03
    0.29
    31.82
    0.29
    0.29
    454545
    31.82
    31.82
    3.16
    3.16
    3.16

    0.21
    0.21
    0.21

    67
    67
    67

    2.58
    2.58
    2.58

    0.26
    0.26
    0.26

    Conclusions
    Study

    Advanced hydrological-water resources approach


    In country variability
    Monthly approach
    Changes: climate, GDP, domestic, industry, agriculture
    Scoping study

    Overall results

    Renewable water resources 20% reduction


    Water shoratge 220 km3 (range 104-306)
    Water shortage due to climate change 14% (range 1-35)
    Costs of adaptation US$ 47 billion (range 12-98)
    Costs of adaptation 2050: 2.5% to 0.3% of GDP (current to 2050 GDP)

    Adaptation is possible, if policies are put in place


    now!

    Comparison Other Studies


    Economics of adaptation to climate change (World
    Bank, 2010):
    Developing countries: 0.2 percent GDP (2030)
    Developing countries: 0.12 percent GDP (2050)
    MENA: US$ 2.5 3.6 billion per year (2050)

    2030 Water Resources Group


    MENA: increase in demand: 99 km3 (2030)

    Making the Most of Scarcity (World Bank, 2007):


    MENA: 1 3.6% of GDP (currently)

    AQAU-CSP (DLR)
    Water shortage: 50 km3 (current)
    Water shortage: 150 km3 (2050)
    2050:
    Shortage (km3): 220 (104-306)
    Costs (billion US$): 47 (12-98)
    GDP (%): 0.3 2.5

    Way Forward
    Water shortage:
    Unconventional decisions needed
    Food, environment, tourism, industry?
    Subsidies on water-food-energy

    Water-energy nexus
    Long and short term decisions
    Detailed case studies (country, topic)

    THANK YOU

    GDP projections
    Morocco

    Egypt

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