Malhotra 07
Malhotra 07
Malhotra 07
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Chapter Outline
1) Overview 2) Concept of Causality 3) Conditions for Causality 4) Definition of Concepts 5) Definition of Symbols
6) Validity in Experimentation
7) Extraneous Variables 8) Controlling Extraneous Variables
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Chapter Outline
9) A Classification of Experimental Designs 10) Pre-experimental Designs 11) True Experimental Designs 12) Quasi Experimental Designs 13) Statistical Designs
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Chapter Outline
18) Determining a Test Marketing Strategy 19) International Marketing Research 20) Ethics in Marketing Research 21) Internet and Computer Applications 22) Focus on Burke
23) Summary
24) Key Terms and Concepts
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Concept of Causality
A statement such as "X causes Y " will have the following meaning to an ordinary person and to a scientist.
____________________________________________________ Ordinary Meaning Scientific Meaning ____________________________________________________ X is the only cause of Y. X is only one of a number of possible causes of Y.
The occurrence of X makes the occurrence of Y more probable (X is a probabilistic cause of Y). We can never prove that X is a cause of Y. At best, we can infer that X is a cause of Y.
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Concomitant variation is the extent to which a cause, X, and an effect, Y, occur together or vary together in the way predicted by the hypothesis under consideration. The time order of occurrence condition states that the causing event must occur either before or simultaneously with the effect; it cannot occur afterwards. The absence of other possible causal factors means that the factor or variable being investigated should be the only possible causal explanation.
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Low
322 (64%)
178 (36%)
500 (100%)
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Low Income Purchase High Education High 122 (61%) Low 200 (100%) 300 (100%) Education 78 (39%) High
High Income Purchase High 241 (80%) Low 59 (20%) 300 200
Low
171 (57%)
129 (43%)
Low
151 (76%)
49 (24%)
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Independent variables are variables or alternatives that are manipulated and whose effects are measured and compared, e.g., price levels. Test units are individuals, organizations, or other entities whose response to the independent variables or treatments is being examined, e.g., consumers or stores. Dependent variables are the variables which measure the effect of the independent variables on the test units, e.g., sales, profits, and market shares. Extraneous variables are all variables other than the independent variables that affect the response of the test units, e.g., store size, store location, and competitive effort.
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Experimental Design
An experimental design is a set of procedures specifying
1.
2.
3.
4.
the test units and how these units are to be divided into homogeneous subsamples, what independent variables or treatments are to be manipulated, what dependent variables are to be measured, and how the extraneous variables are to be controlled.
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Validity in Experimentation
Internal validity refers to whether the manipulation of the independent variables or treatments actually caused the observed effects on the dependent variables. Control of extraneous variables is a necessary condition for establishing internal validity. External validity refers to whether the cause-and-effect relationships found in the experiment can be generalized. To what populations, settings, times, independent variables and dependent variables can the results be projected?
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Extraneous Variables
History refers to specific events that are external to the experiment but occur at the same time as the experiment. Maturation (MA) refers to changes in the test units themselves that occur with the passage of time. Testing effects are caused by the process of experimentation. Typically, these are the effects on the experiment of taking a measure on the dependent variable before and after the presentation of the treatment. The main testing effect (MT) occurs when a prior observation affects a latter observation.
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Extraneous Variables
In the interactive testing effect (IT), a prior measurement affects the test unit's response to the independent variable. Instrumentation (I) refers to changes in the measuring instrument, in the observers or in the scores themselves. Statistical regression effects (SR) occur when test units with extreme scores move closer to the average score during the course of the experiment. Selection bias (SB) refers to the improper assignment of test units to treatment conditions. Mortality (MO) refers to the loss of test units while the experiment is in progress.
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Randomization refers to the random assignment of test units to experimental groups by using random numbers. Treatment conditions are also randomly assigned to experimental groups. Matching involves comparing test units on a set of key background variables before assigning them to the treatment conditions. Statistical control involves measuring the extraneous variables and adjusting for their effects through statistical analysis. Design control involves the use of experiments designed to control specific extraneous variables.
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Pre-experimental designs do not employ randomization procedures to control for extraneous factors: the one-shot case study, the one-group pretest-posttest design, and the static-group. In true experimental designs, the researcher can randomly assign test units to experimental groups and treatments to experimental groups: the pretest-posttest control group design, the posttest-only control group design, and the Solomon fourgroup design.
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Quasi-experimental designs result when the researcher is unable to achieve full manipulation of scheduling or allocation of treatments to test units but can still apply part of the apparatus of true experimentation: time series and multiple time series designs. A statistical design is a series of basic experiments that allows for statistical control and analysis of external variables: randomized block design, Latin square design, and factorial designs.
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True Experimental Pretest-Posttest Control Group Posttest: Only Control Group Solomon FourGroup
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A single group of test units is exposed to a treatment X. A single measurement on the dependent variable is taken (01). There is no random assignment of test units. The one-shot case study is more appropriate for exploratory than for conclusive research.
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02
A group of test units is measured twice. There is no control group. The treatment effect is computed as 02 01. The validity of this conclusion is questionable since extraneous variables are largely uncontrolled.
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01 02
A two-group experimental design. The experimental group (EG) is exposed to the treatment, and the control group (CG) is not. Measurements on both groups are made only after the treatment. Test units are not assigned at random. The treatment effect would be measured as 01 - 02.
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R R
01 03
02 04
Test units are randomly assigned to either the experimental or the control group. A pretreatment measure is taken on each group. The treatment effect (TE) is measured as:(02 - 01) - (04 - 03). Selection bias is eliminated by randomization. The other extraneous effects are controlled as follows: 02 01= TE + H + MA + MT + IT + I + SR + MO 04 03= H + MA + MT + I + SR + MO = EV (Extraneous Variables) The experimental result is obtained by: (02 - 01) - (04 - 03) = TE + IT Interactive testing effect is not controlled.
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R R
01 02
The treatment effect is obtained by TE = 01 - 02 Except for pre-measurement, the implementation of this design is very similar to that of the pretest-posttest control group design.
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01 02 03 04 05
X 06 07 08 09 010
There is no randomization of test units to treatments. The timing of treatment presentation, as well as which test units are exposed to the treatment, may not be within the researcher's control.
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X 06 07 08 09 010 06 07 08 09 010
If the control group is carefully selected, this design can be an improvement over the simple time series experiment. Can test the treatment effect twice: against the pretreatment measurements in the experimental group and against the control group.
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Statistical Designs
Statistical designs consist of a series of basic experiments that allow for statistical control and analysis of external variables and offer the following advantages:
The effects of more than one independent variable can be measured. Specific extraneous variables can be statistically controlled. Economical designs can be formulated when each test unit is measured more than once.
The most common statistical designs are the randomized block design, the Latin square design, and the factorial design.
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It is an experimental design that uses a random process to assign experimental units to treatments Treatments are assigned to groups in a completely random process and the response rates (dependent variable) of the three treatment groups is studied Pretest-posttest with control group that replicates or repeats the same treatment on different experimental units is an example
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Is useful when there is only one major external variable, such as store size, that might influence the dependent variable. The test units are blocked, or grouped, on the basis of the external variable. By blocking, the researcher ensures that the various experimental and control groups are matched closely on the external variable.
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Allows the researcher to statistically control two noninteracting external variables as well as to manipulate the independent variable. Each external or blocking variable is divided into an equal number of blocks, or levels. The independent variable is also divided into the same number of levels. A Latin square is conceptualized as a table (see Table 7.5), with the rows and columns representing the blocks in the two external variables. The levels of the independent variable are assigned to the cells in the table. The assignment rule is that each level of the independent variable should appear only once in each row and each column, as shown in Table 7.5.
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High B C A
Low C A B
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Factorial Design
Is used to measure the effects of two or more independent variables at various levels. A factorial design may also be conceptualized as a table. In a two-factor design, each level of one variable represents a row and each level of another variable represents a column.
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Factorial Design
Table 7.6
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Factor
Environment Control Reactive Error Demand Artifacts Internal Validity External Validity Time Number of Units Ease of Implementation Cost
Laboratory
Artificial High High High High Low Short Small High Low
Field
Realistic Low Low Low Low High Long Large Low High
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Limitations of Experimentation
Experiments can be time consuming, particularly if the researcher is interested in measuring the long-term effects. Experiments are often expensive. The requirements of experimental group, control group, and multiple measurements significantly add to the cost of research. Experiments can be difficult to administer. It may be impossible to control for the effects of the extraneous variables, particularly in a field environment. Competitors may deliberately contaminate the results of a field experiment.
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