Month Actual Shed Sales 3-Month Moving Average 3 - Month Movingaverage (Weight 3,2,1)

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BRB Company

3- Month
3- Month Moving
Month Actual Shed Sales Average MovingAverage
(weight=3,2,1)

January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 11.67 12.167
May 19 13.67 14.333
June 23 16.00 17.000
July 26 19.33 20.500
August 30 22.67 23.833
September 28 26.33 27.500
October 18 28.00 28.333
November 16 25.33 23.333
December 14 20.67 18.667
Port of Baltimore

Mean Absolute Deviation

Quarter Actual Tonnage Forecast with Forecast with Absolute


Unloaded a=.10 a=.50 Deviation (a=.10)
1 180 175.00 175.00 5.00
2 168 175.50 177.50 7.50
3 159 174.75 173.75 15.75
4 175 173.18 165.88 1.82
5 190 173.36 166.79 16.64
6 205 175.02 175.11 29.98
7 180 178.02 190.10 1.98
8 182 178.22 191.09 3.78
9 n/a 178.60 192.98

Forecast errors 10.307


Port of Baltimore

Mean Absolute Deviation Mean Squared Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Absolute
Deviation for a (Error)^2 for a=.10 (Error)^2 for a=.50 Absolute Percent Absolute Percent
Error for a=.10 for a=.50
(a=.50)
5.00 25.00 25.00 2.778 2.778
9.50 56.25 90.25 4.464 5.655
14.75 248.06 217.56 9.906 9.277
9.13 3.33 83.27 1.043 5.214
23.21 276.97 538.82 8.759 12.217
29.89 898.70 893.49 14.624 14.581
10.10 3.92 101.97 1.100 5.610
9.09 14.31 82.59 2.078 4.993

13.833 190.817 254.118 5.594 7.541

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