International Business Case Study
International Business Case Study
International Business Case Study
0
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(v) Negotiated price
The above situation may lead to the use of negotiated prices, but, then, might not
individual managers spend more time and ingenuity squabbling over the
negotiations than on advancing the overall corporate effort, perhaps leading to
central dictation again?
Which method to adopt will depend on prevailing circumstances in the company,
namely:
The central control or freedom of action imposed upon or allowed to divisions by
the corporate management.
The existence of comparable markets for the products of the divisions at the
intermediate stages of production.
The extent to which divisions are free to buy from, and sell to, the outside market,
rather than being restricted to using fellow divisions as suppliers or outlets.
All methods of transfer pricing are beset with practical difficulties related to
circumstances in the company. Perhaps the most favourable technique is to have
some two-part tariff arrangement, where each divisions fixed costs are charged to
user-divisions regardless of their use of them. The variable costs, possibly with a profit
addition, are charged on the basis of consumption by the users.
This suggestion, of course, tends to assume that usage is a sequential pattern with A
passing to B, and B to C, etc. Often, in practice, a reciprocal position may arise, where
subsidiarys costs are interdependent.
Also, are the fixed costs to be amalgamated with Bs and passed on? In view of the
optimising/allocation nature of the problem, a mathematical programming approach
may produce the best answer.
Reasons for manipulating transfer prices
One of the most common reasons for the manipulation of transfer pricing is known as
tax planning, which involves the careful and systematic avoidance of taxes to make
sure that profits are not taxed twice i.e. by two governments. Another reason is the fear
that, if too large a profit appears against a particular subsidiary, pressure will be applied
by government or customs to reduce prices, or by trade unions seeking large wage
increases.
Another influence on transfer prices is the market conditions in which a subsidiary
operates. The family network of a large worldwide group may make possible a price
war to gain a market advantage.
Governments are always finding ways to cancel out any tax advantages a company
may discover. They can make a careful check on comparative import and export
prices, and will soon discover if transfer pricing is being allowed to distort the position.
For example, in the UK the Controlled Foreign Company legislation was introduced to
prevent transfer prices being manipulated and tax havens used for undue tax
avoidance.
Large transfers of funds
One of the most controversial aspects of the MNC is its ability to move enormous sums
of money between subsidiaries in different countries.
The reasons for large transfers of funds around the world include:
(i) Funds for new investment.
(ii) Payments of profit and interest.
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(iii) Making and repayment of loans between member companies.
(iv) Payments for goods, services and expenses.
The main fear of international companies is that money will be lost due to factors
beyond their control, such as restrictions on the return of profits from a subsidiary to a
parent company, and the effects of changes in the value of currencies. This is why one
of the trends in international business is to pay the parent company as large a profit
return as possible, even if loans have to be made in order to keep the subsidiary in
liquid funds.
If international trade were entirely a matter of arms length transactions i.e. between
separate and unconnected companies in different countries, the movement of funds
would be easier for governments to follow and control.
(When a subsidiary in another country is not fully owned problems are likely to arise as
group objectives pull one way and those of the subsidiary the other. For this reason
MNCs much prefer to make their subsidiaries wholly owned.)
D. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS
The criteria by which investment opportunities are selected will vary between companies.
MNCs often prefer to invest in their own domestic market, and will only go abroad if they can
secure a higher rate on capital by so doing. However, sometimes the MNC will undertake a
foreign investment that is uneconomic. The main reasons for this are:
To ensure an outlet for some other aspect of its worldwide operations, for example, an
oil company may construct a refinery as an outlet for its own crude oil production.
To safeguard its existing interest, for example, by producing a new but uneconomic car,
in order to keep a brand name alive for the sake of a larger, successful model.
Studies indicate that many MNCs do not have a master plan for international investment but
review each individual project on its merits. It is generally the viability of the project, rather
than the finance available for investment, that is the key to the investment decision.
Factors Affecting the Investment Decision
The decision to locate, or relocate, part of an MNCs operations in a foreign country will
follow detailed research and often complex negotiations. Of the issues that will primarily
concern the management team, the following will be of particular significance:
Will the investment be temporary or permanent? For example, a temporary
investment, such as a mine, will be worked out within a finite period of time. In such
cases a loan will generally be the best method of financing, whereas for permanent
investment equity will usually be the best approach.
Is it best to operate as a branch or should a separate local company be created? The
answer to this question will depend on local considerations, including the tax laws of
the country concerned, as well as strategic policy regarding decentralisation of control
of subsidiaries. It may be advantageous to have a branch overseas if unprofitable,
converting it to a subsidiary when it becomes profitable. Special EU rules (for example
on mergers) can create other problems or advantages when deciding on the structure
of overseas operations.
Where borrowing is envisaged, should funds be borrowed locally, provided through the
parent or raised through the euro markets, and what exchange risk will be involved?
What is the cheapest and safest way of providing capital?
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The political, economic and currency environment, and particularly their stability, of the
country will determine a number of important factors, including:
(i) The stability of the market for raw materials.
(ii) Controls on the movement of product and currencies, and particularly how
difficult the repatriation of funds may be in the future.
(iii) Inflation and local taxes.
(iv) Whether it would be politically wise to have a local participation in the chosen
country.
(v) The support, assistance (and interference) of, and by, the government of the
country.
Other aspects of the business environment such as communication facilities, the ability
to acquire an established company or whether a green field operation can be
developed, the availability and cost of suitably qualified labour and management, and
the industrial relations record of the country, and the level of competition already
established in the region.
Entities trading internationally face particular difficulties based around different currency units
that can cause potential problems in translating one unit of currency into another. They also
have the problem of different laws, taxes, business practices and cultures that may be
incompatible with existing operating methods.
International Investment Appraisal
The assessment of the viability of overseas projects has many features in common with the
assessment of domestic projects. There are, of course, also marked differences so that
domestic budgeting techniques form only the foundation of overseas capital budgeting.
Investment appraisal in an MNC is conducted in a similar manner to the assessment of
domestic projects, using such techniques as net present value (NPV) and internal rate of
return (IRR). However, there may be differences adopted to reflect the differing nature of the
investment:
Cost of capital
The first issue is determining the cost of capital to be applied, for example, by using the
capital asset pricing model or the dividend growth model. However, if the risk/return
pattern of the project is in any way different to that of the company as a whole then due
allowance should be made by calculating a project-specific return.
Because the project is overseas based it is possible that the elements used to finance
it will be a mixture from the two countries concerned. If overseas funds are utilised
then further adjustments may be necessary due to the following:
(i) Retained earnings of the subsidiary or project that may be subject to withholding
taxes or tax deferral (which we shall look at shortly).
(ii) Local currency debt this is the after-tax cost of borrowing locally in the country
concerned:
Discount rate applied
An increase in currency and political risk may lead to the company increasing the
discount rate used to evaluate projects; or the company may use the discount rate
determined by its overall systematic risk level (if it is assumed to be unchanged by the
potential investment) and adjust the cash flows for the expected political and currency
risk. In practice the discount rate is adjusted for political risk, because all cash flows
would be affected by adverse political circumstances, whereas currency risk may have
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some beneficial, and some detrimental, effects on cash flows and as such is accounted
for by adjusting cash flows.
Parent or project cash flows
The project must be shown to be beneficial both in the host country and its currency,
and in terms of funds remitted to its parent, in order to fully justify it, both from the point
of view of the parent company and in comparison with other (potential) projects in the
host country.
However, the cash flows that are generated by the project are not necessarily those
that will be received by the parent. There may, for instance, be exchange control
regulations limiting the transmission of funds, in which case some of the methods
outlined earlier under the unblocking of funds may be used. It is important that the
distinction between the two is understood, as decisions made on the strength of project
cash flows can be very misleading.
The factors affecting cash flows, which must be allowed for in investment appraisal,
include the following:
(i) Exchange rates, the added complication that cash flows have to be converted
from the host currency to the domestic one.
(ii) Different tax rates in home and host country, which we shall look in more detail at
taxation shortly, but you should be aware that overseas taxation can play a major
part in determining whether or not a project is viable.
(iii) Royalties and fees payable out of the income, which cause differences between
cash flows to the project and to the parent company.
(iv) Restrictions imposed on the flow of funds from subsidiary to parent, which may
alter the complexion of the project from the parents point of view.
(v) The different rates of inflation between the host country and that of the parent.
Repatriation of Profits
The aim of investment in overseas subsidiaries is to increase group profits for the MNC and
central to this is the ability to transfer value through the group.
Those companies with inter-divisional trade need to determine the level at which to set
transfer prices for goods and services provided by one group member for another. The basis
on which the transfer price is set will affect the profit share of the group, and should be
determined in order to maximise group profits by developing the motivation of subsidiaries
and circumventing any repatriation controls imposed by the host government.
Transfer prices of goods and services provided by group members for each other are one
way of obtaining cash returns from an overseas subsidiary. Others include:
Royalties charged to the subsidiary for making goods, or providing services, for which
the parent holds the patent.
Management charges levied in respect of services provided by head office.
The subsidiary may borrow from its parent, and thus pay interest charges to it.
Dividends that can be paid to the parent on the equity provided by it.
The choice of method of obtaining cash returns, and level received from each (often by
manipulating the various factors, such as the rate of interest for parental loans), will be
determined by the requirements of the parent and the subsidiary, any exchange controls
present and the perceived risk of the investment.
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This manipulation can make the interpretation and evaluation of the accounts of MNCs and
their subsidiaries extremely difficult. The problem is exaggerated by the differing accounting
policies used in different countries; the differing choices made as to which exchange rates
(actual (and at what date) or predicted) to be used in setting forecasts and translating
accounts into the parent companys currency; and the different economic and political
circumstances a subsidiary may be operating in.
Overseas Taxation
The impact of overseas taxation can play an important part in the investment decision, as
noted above.
Withholding taxes, for instance, will be met quite regularly. These are taxes collected from
foreign corporations or individuals on income earned in that country. A UK resident in
France, for instance, may find that any dividends he receives could be subject to a
withholding tax of 20% that is then paid over to the French revenue authorities. Credit is
usually given in the home country for any taxes paid abroad. Thus, if a UK resident was in
the 40% tax bracket and had suffered the 20% withholding tax above, he would be liable for
20% of UK tax on that particular income. It is often the case, however, that if the withholding
tax rate exceeds the home country tax rate then no credit is given for the excess tax paid
abroad.
Thus, double taxation relief is available in income earned abroad. An important strategic
consideration that must be taken into account when setting up an operation overseas is
whether to operate it as a branch or subsidiary. If the former, then UK tax is paid on income
which is repatriated, and there may be cash flow advantages in manipulating dividends to be
taxed in a different accounting period.
If income from abroad is not repatriated then it will be subject only to foreign tax and not to
withholding tax or UK tax.
If the profits of an overseas operation were transferred to a tax haven they would not be
subject to UK tax but the withholding tax would be deducted. A tax haven is a country where
tax on resident companies, foreign investment and withholding tax paid on dividends paid
overseas are low. For these reasons they are often used by MNCs as a means of deferring
tax prior to the repatriation of funds. For this to be successful, the tax haven requires
adequate financial services, a stable exchange rate and a stable government.
UK companies may also consider transferring residence in order to avoid paying UK
corporation tax (this is subject to various Inland Revenue rules).
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Study Unit 14
Risk and the International Business
Contents Page
Introduction 242
A. Risk and International Trade/Finance 243
Political Risk 243
Foreign Exchange or Currency Risk 243
B. Managing Political Risk 244
Dealing with Political Risk 245
Restrictions on the Remittance of Funds 246
C. Internal Methods of Managing Exchange Rate Risk and Exposure 248
Currency invoicing 248
Netting 248
Matching 249
Leads and Lags 249
D. External Methods of Managing Exchange Rate Risk and Exposure 250
Principles of Hedging 250
Forward Contracts 251
Currency swaps 252
Currency Futures 253
Currency Options 255
Money Market Hedge 257
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INTRODUCTION
All businesses face a degree of risk. One facet of this risk is business risk that arising from
the very nature of the business itself. We can divide this type of risk into two groups:
That which is inherent in the conduct of business itself and cannot be reduced or
eliminated without ceasing trading, effectively closing down the business or selling it.
(The owner(s) accept this type of risk in making their investment and expect some form
of financial return as compensation.)
That which arises as a consequence of the financial transactions taking place in the
normal course of business. Essentially, we are concerned here, in the international
context, with the possibility of incurring a loss of value on certain types of transaction,
those that involve making/receiving payments in a different currency, as a result of
changes in the exchange rate. It is this element of risk exposure that the business can
seek to reduce or eliminate.
In the international arena, there is a further type of risk, political risk. This relates to the
possibility that the conditions under which a business entered a foreign market may change
and adversely affect the financial position of the business. This can arise from the decisions
of governments to change, for example, taxation levels or other aspects of the economic
environment of the country.
Recent economic and political developments have enlarged the scope and deepened the
complexity of risks facing international companies. Global terrorism has sharpened the
anxieties of corporate managers regarding the physical safety of their employees and the
continuity of their business operations. Rising cyberterrorism has accentuated concerns over
IT security, while growing volatility in the world economy has heightened financial and
competitive risks.
The key challenge at hand is not to eliminate, but to manage risk (which is inherent in any
business venture) in a systematic fashion allowing the company to confidently pursue its
business objectives.
The Global Economics Company, experts in international risk management, cite the following
global business risks:
Proprietary Risk The global dispersion of technology heightens the danger of loss of
intellectual property, especially in China and other emerging markets that international
companies are prioritising as growth targets.
Market Risk Global companies confront a variety of market risks, misalignment of
capabilities and target markets, insufficient knowledge of technological disruptions of
those markets; slow responses to emerging market opportunities.
Foreign Exchange Risk Uncertainty over the direction and magnitude of currency
movements places globally active companies at risk of foreign exchange losses.
Country Risk Business risk is particularly high in emerging and developing countries
where regulatory structures are fragile, rule of law is weak, and political/economic
instability is pervasive. But it is precisely these markets that offer the greatest
commercial potential for global companies in coming years.
It is not possible to eliminate these risks completely, but it is possible to reduce them by
adopting appropriate strategies to reduce the amount of exposure to loss that the business is
faced with.
In this unit, we start by examining in some detail the nature of these risks, and then consider
the ways of managing political risk. We then move on to consider techniques to manage
exchange rate exposure in two categories:
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Internal, or natural, techniques. Those that are affected entirely by the financial
organisation and structure of the company itself.
External, or transactional, techniques. Those using the range of derivative instruments
which are affected by the use of third party services, such as banks and specialist
exchanges.
Although both types of technique provide effective means of covering the exposure, certain
external techniques offer the possibility of taking advantage of favourable movements in
exchange rates to generate profits.
A. RISK AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE/FINANCE
In addition to normal business and financial risk, companies face extra risks connected with
trading and investing overseas. These risks can be separated into political risk and foreign
exchange risk.
Political Risk
Political risk (also known as country risk) includes the problems of managing subsidiaries
geographically separated and based in areas with different cultures and traditions, and
political or economic measures taken by the host government affecting the activities of the
subsidiary.
Whilst a host country will wish to encourage the growth of industry and commerce within its
borders, and offer incentives to attract overseas investment (such as grants), it may also be
suspicious of outside investment and the possibility of exploitation of itself and its population.
The host government may restrict the foreign companies activities to prevent exploitation or
for other political and financial reasons. Such restrictions may range from import quotas and
tariffs limiting the amount of goods the company can either physically or financially viably
import, to appropriation of the companys assets with or without paying compensation. Other
measures include restrictions on the purchasing of companies, especially in sensitive areas
such as defence and the utilities; such restrictions could be an outright ban, an insistence on
joint ventures or a required minimum level of local shareholders. In order to prevent the
dumping of goods banned elsewhere (e.g. for safety reasons) a host government may
legislate as to minimum levels of quality and safety required for all goods produced or
imported by foreign companies.
Host governments, particularly in developing and underdeveloped countries, may be
concerned about maintaining foreign currency reserves and preventing a devaluation of their
national currency. In order to do this they may impose exchange controls. This is generally
done by restricting the supply of foreign currencies, thus limiting the levels of imports and
preventing the repatriation of profits by MNCs by restricting payments abroad to certain
transactions. This latter method often causes MNCs to have funds tied up unproductively in
overseas countries.
Foreign Exchange or Currency Risk
Exchange rate risk applies in any situation where companies are involved in international
trade. It arises from the potential for exchange rates to move adversely and, thereby, to
affect the value of transactions or assets denominated in a foreign currency.
There are three main types of exchange rate risk to which those dealing overseas (importers,
exporters, those with overseas subsidiaries or parents, and those investing in overseas
markets) may be exposed:
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Transaction exposure
This occurs when trade is denominated in foreign currency terms and there is a time
delay between contracting to make the transaction and its monetary settlement. The
risk is that movements in the exchange rate, during the intervening period, will increase
the amount paid for the goods/services purchased or decrease the value received for
goods/services supplied.
Translation exposure
This arises where balance sheet assets and liabilities are denominated in different
currencies. The risk is that adverse changes in exchange rates will affect their value on
conversion into the base currency.
Any gains or losses in the book values of monetary assets and liabilities during the
process of consolidation are recorded in the profit and loss account. Since only book
values are affected and these do not represent actual cashflows, there is a tendency to
disregard the importance of translation exposure. This is, though, a false assumption
since losses occurring through translation will be reflected in the value of the company,
affecting the share price and hence, shareholders wealth and perceptions among
investors of the companys financial health.
Economic exposure
This refers to changes in the present value of a companys future operating cashflows,
discounted at the appropriate discount rate, as a result of exchange rate movements.
To some extent, this is the same as transaction exposure, and the latter can be seen as
a sub-set of economic exposure (which is its long term counterpart). However,
economic exposure has more wide ranging effects. For example, it applies to the
repatriation of funds from a wholly owned foreign subsidiary where the local currency
falls in value in relation to the domestic currency of the holding company. It can also
affect the international competitiveness of a company, for example, a UK company
purchasing commodities from Germany and reselling them in China would be affected
by either a depreciation (loss of purchasing power) of sterling against the Euro and/or
an appreciation of Yuan.
It can also affect companies who are not involved in international trade at all. Changes
in exchange rates can impact on the relative competitiveness of companies trading in
the domestic market vis--vis overseas companies when imports become cheaper.
Thus, reduced operating cashflows may be a consequence of a strengthening
domestic currency, a situation that has affected UK companies in the late 1990s.
The management of exchange rate risk will involve hedging against adverse movements in
order to contain the extent of any exposure. At the operating level, the focus of attention is
primarily on managing the exposure caused by transaction and economic risk, both
essentially being underpinned by cashflows. The techniques that we shall examine in this
unit, then, relate essentially to these aspects of exposure, with the greater emphasis on
transaction exposure
B. MANAGING POLITICAL RISK
Political risk relates to any action that can be taken by an overseas government that can
affect a companys investment in that country. There are many different ways in which it can
manifest itself, for example:
Changes in tax laws.
Changes in the rules concerning transfer of funds.
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Stipulations concerning the amount of local production or employment.
Changes in exchange controls.
Expropriation of assets i.e. government seizure.
Dealing with Political Risk
Firstly, it is important that any company considering direct overseas investment is aware of
the potential political risks involved and there are two main methods of approaching this
assessment:
The macro approach This is country-specific and can be achieved by using one of
the many political risk-forecasting services that are available. The usual format of
these services is that each country is ranked on a series of different factors to give an
overall rating. These factors take into account items such as political stability (or
instability as the case may be), fractionalisation of the country by language or religious
groups and so on. Depending on its rating a country may be considered a minimal risk
through to a prohibitive risk.
The micro approach This is company-specific and is based on the fact that it is the
type of industry that determines the level of risk rather than the country in which it
operates. Thus, extractive industries are considered to be more at risk than companies
in the service sector.
The methods of dealing with the risk are to:
Identify those areas where the risk is considered unacceptable and refrain from making
the investment.
Insure against the risk, for example, in the UK, through Lloyds of London, which is the
only organisation to provide cover against expropriation of new or existing assets to a
limit of 90% of equity participation.
Negotiate with the overseas government before making the investment as a means of
reaching agreement on the rights and duties of each partner although any agreement
can be negated by a change of government.
Structure the overseas operation to make expropriation by the host government a
waste of time, for example, by making the foreign company dependent on the group for
supplies of spare parts or raw materials.
Operating policies can also be employed to minimise political risk. They can take several
forms including short-term profit maximisation, planned divestment and the encouragement
of local shareholdings.
Where expropriation is threatened or has taken place, the following are some of the courses
of action that could be taken:
Negotiate with the government concerned and attempt to halt or reverse the decision.
Bargaining whereby the MNC offers something in return for the host government
desisting from expropriating the asset, such as agreeing to use more locally-produced
parts in manufacture, hiring more local managers, investing more capital or
surrendering majority control.
Agree to relinquish control in return for compensation i.e. effectively sell the assets and
pull out.
Political lobbying. This could take the form of lobbying the home government to
intervene on behalf of the MNC or alternatively pursuing an action through the
international courts. In addition, it may be worth lobbying to attempt to block certain
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imports from the country concerned, although this has wider trade implications and is
less likely to be successful.
Restrictions on the Remittance of Funds
An MNC is in a position whereby it can transfer funds from one location to another as part of
its regular operating cycle to keep overseas subsidiaries adequately financed and to remit
surplus funds to the home country. This also allows the MNC to take advantage of arbitrage
opportunities that may exist in terms of:
Reducing the overall tax burden by shifting profits from high to low tax areas or from
paying to participating subsidiaries.
Circumventing credit control restrictions in the country of operations by remitting funds
to subsidiaries located there.
Taking advantage of high interest rates to invest surplus funds or low interest rates to
borrow funds.
Unfortunately for the MNC, most countries impose restrictions on the transfer of funds into
and out of their country, usually in order to be able to maintain their currency value within
defined limits.
In order to overcome such restrictions the MNC can adopt one or several of the following
options:
Transfer pricing
We have already examined the importance of transfer pricing to an MNC. Remember
that it is perhaps the most widely used method of transferring funds and one which host
countries assume is used to their detriment and therefore should be tightly controlled.
Transfer pricing is especially relevant to those businesses dealing internationally due to
the increased complexity of the possible sourcing decisions. Much of this complexity
arises from the sheer number of transfers, exchange rate movements and the amount
of information on international sales and costs required. Obviously a good financial
decision support system (DSS) is required for such companies, although the cost may
be prohibitive, one possible solution is to break the organisation down into smaller units
and thereby simplify the amount of information involved.
A further element of complexity for both production location decisions and for transfer
pricing is the need for companies to consider the impact of taxation, the aim will be to
set transfer prices which minimise the level of tax paid whilst ensuring that laws are not
breached. For taxation purposes, MNCs often use cost-plus based transfer pricing
systems, with a separate system being used for performance management. This,
however, may not be allowed in certain countries. UK-resident companies are liable to
corporation tax on profits before foreign taxes of overseas investments (though double
taxation relief is generally available). Thus, where the effective tax rate is lower
overseas than in the UK and there are no exchange rate or cash flow requirements to
repatriate profits, there are benefits in leaving the cash (and profits) overseas.
However, companies must be careful not to fall foul of anti-avoidance legislation.
A large MNC needs to determine its location and transfer pricing systems to ensure
that the best economic outcome from the perspective of the group is achieved. In
doing so, it must consider a large number of factors, for example, relative productivity,
inflation, exchange rate volatility and management, interest rates, transportation costs,
proximity to markets and price elasticity, as well as the costs of reversing such
decisions. The decision may be made by comparing the total contribution to the group
(often referred to as total system profit or decision profit) of the different
alternatives. However, in order to do this a transfer pricing system must have been
developed, thus creating a somewhat circular problem.
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A further method that may be used is arms-length transfer pricing. However, this
reduces HQs involvement and as such it may not be in the groups interest.
Leading and lagging
We consider this in more detail below in respect of managing exchange rate risk.
In the context of unblocking funds, suppose that company A in one country sells goods
to an affiliate in another country of 1m per month, with payment terms one month after
receipt. If the payment terms are then altered to three months an additional 2m will
be lagged. If payment terms are shortened the funds will be transferred more quickly.
Note that each of these will be a one-off movement.
Dividends
This is another important method of moving funds between countries. The level of
dividend set will depend on considerations such as the levels of taxation, the existence
of exchange controls which may restrict the transfer of funds, the expected changes in
exchange rates which may cause a company to accelerate or delay payments, and the
effect on the financial statements of affiliates.
Loans
These can take the form of:
(i) Parallel loans which involve no cross-border movement of funds and usually
allow for the loans to be set off against each other.
(ii) Back-to-back loans which are often used to finance associates in countries
with high interest rates or where different rates of withholding tax apply.
Currency swaps
These are made between two parties who agree to transfer currency at the prevailing
spot rate with an undertaking to reverse the transaction at a future date. No interest is
payable but a fee is usually paid by one party to reflect the forward premium or
discount on the currency transferred.
Again, we examine these in more detail below when considering exchange rate risk.
Fees and royalty agreements
These usually take the form of management fees from the subsidiary to the head office
based on the amount the latter wishes to receive in total, which is then apportioned out
to the subsidiaries based on, for instance, the sales of each. Overseas governments
prefer agreements to be in place in advance and for there to be a steady flow of funds
rather than an erratic one, which could indicate an obvious attempt to manipulate the
flow of funds.
Debt versus equity
Consideration should be given to the best way of financing an overseas subsidiary
depending on the ease of moving different types of funds. In this instance it is the ease
of repatriating interest and repayment of capital compared to dividends or reductions in
equity. Loans are often preferable as reductions in equity may be difficult, or even
impossible, to achieve and loan interest is usually tax deductible. Account will also
have to be taken of local government requirements for financing through the issue of
equity.
Re-invoicing centres
These are often sited in low tax countries and take title to all goods sold across
frontiers either between subsidiaries or to a third party. The goods themselves pass as
usual from seller to buyer with payment being made to the re-invoicing centre. The
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great advantage with this arrangement is the possibility of utilising currency-invoicing
techniques, which we consider next.
Currency of invoice
The objective of this technique is to invoice in a strengthening or weakening currency in
order to transfer funds from one country to another. Thus, if a currency is expected to
weaken, by invoicing in that currency the company will receive less for its goods when
paid for by an affiliate in another country, but of course the affiliate will gain by
effectively paying less for the goods in question. As an example, suppose affiliate A is
transferring goods to affiliate B in a currency that is expected to devalue by 5%. If the
goods are worth 10 million this will effectively mean a transfer of 500,000 to affiliate
B. It is possible to invoice in any currency depending on the circumstances, so if a
country imposes restrictions on capital inflows, it is possible to invoice in a weak
currency in order to transfer funds there.
Again, this is also used as a means of managing exchange rate exposure and will be
considered later in the unit.
Other techniques
It is also possible to utilise blocked funds in other ways to those mentioned above.
One method is to purchase items, such as machinery, with the blocked funds in the
country concerned, but utilise the items worldwide throughout the group. Other
alternatives are to purchase services or carry out R & D in that country, the benefit of
which will again be enjoyed by the group as a whole.
C. INTERNAL METHODS OF MANAGING EXCHANGE
RATE RISK AND EXPOSURE
There are four main internal means of reducing exchange rate exposure. These are based
on methods of processing transactions and payments, and of offsetting assets and liabilities
in different currencies.
Currency invoicing
The first approach is simply to invoice foreign customers in the currency of the seller.
Invoicing for goods supplied, and paying for goods received, in a companys domestic
currency removes the exchange rate risk for that company, but only one party to an
exchange between foreign companies can have this facility, and the other bears the risk of
exchange rate fluctuations. However, the advantages of removing exchange rate risk need
to be weighed against those of invoicing in the foreign currency. These include marketing
advantages such as the ease for the customer of dealing in his own currency and the
possibility of purchasing at a discount if the foreign currency is depreciating relative to the
domestic currency. In fact, often the only way to win a contract overseas is to deal in the
currency of that market.
One way to prevent one or both parties being subject to exchange rate risk is for the
companies involved to set a level of exchange rate to use for a transaction regardless of
what the actual exchange rate is on the day the money is transferred.
Netting
This is an internal settlement system used by multinational companies with overseas
subsidiaries. It involves offsetting (netting out) the outstanding foreign exchange positions of
subsidiaries against each other through a central point, the group treasury.
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Suppose there are two overseas subsidiaries in different countries. Subsidiary A expects to
receive a payment in one months time for the sale of goods to the value of $2m, while
subsidiary B has to make a payment of $3m in one months time to a supplier. The central
treasury can offset the two exposures and set up an external hedge for the net risk of $1m.
This negates the need for two separate hedges to be carried out, the first to cover the $3m
against a rise in exchange rates against the dollar and second to cover the $2m against a fall
in exchange rates against the dollar. The single hedge is more efficient and cost-effective.
Matching
This is the process of matching receipts in a particular currency with payments in the same
currency. This prevents the need to buy or sell the foreign currency and thus reduces
exchange rate risk to the surplus or deficit the company has of the foreign currency. It is a
cheap method of reducing or eliminating exchange rate risk provided that the receipts
precede the payments, and the time difference between the two is not too long.
For example, where a company is selling to the US and has outstanding receipts
denominated in $, it could purchase raw materials in the same currency. The one transaction
will offset the other and minimise the exchange exposure that requires external hedging. It
therefore does not matter whether the $ strengthens or weakens against the domestic
currency.
Alternatively, a company could match, say, dollar currency receipts from the export of goods
to the US with a dollar loan. The receipts will be used to pay off the loan. This again secures
the matching of an asset with a liability.
This process can be made easier either by having a bank account in the foreign country or a
foreign currency account in a companys own country, and putting in all receipts and taking
from it all payments in the overseas currency. The exchange rate risk on the surplus or
deficit can be avoided by utilising one of the other methods of risk management.
Matching may also be used to reduce translation exposure, offsetting an investment in assets
in one currency with a corresponding liability in the same currency. For example, the
acquisition of an asset denominated in Yen could be achieved by borrowing funds in Yen. As
the exchange rate against the Yen varies, the effect it has on the translated value of the asset
and liability will increase and decrease in concert. The amount of the reduction in exposure
will depend on the extent to which the expected economic life of the asset corresponds with
when the loan matures.
Leads and Lags
This final method of hedging internally involves varying payment dates to take advantage of
the exchange rate, for example, paying either before or after the due date, depending on
exchange rate movements. The effectiveness of this is dependent on how well exchange
rate movements can be anticipated. A company will only pay in advance if it expects the
domestic currency to weaken, but if it misreads the movement and the exchange rate
strengthens, advance payment may prove expensive.
Leads are advance payments for imports to avoid the risk of having to pay more local
currency if the suppliers currency increases in value.
Lags involve slowing down the exchange of foreign receipts by exporters who
anticipate a rise in the value of the foreign currency received. When this occurs, they
will then benefit by an exchange rate in their favour.
The table below shows the scope for leading and lagging by financial managers of importers
or exporters:
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UK Exporter UK Importer
Expectation of
foreign currency
Receiving foreign currency Paying foreign currency
Devaluation Leads Lags
Revaluation Lags Leads
Foreign Importer Foreign Exporter
Expectation of
sterling
Paying in sterling Receiving sterling
Revaluation Leads Lags
Devaluation Lags Leads
A UK exporter would accelerate (lead) his receipts in the event of an anticipated
devaluation, but he would delay (lag) his foreign receipts if a revaluation was expected,
and so forth. In leading, he will need to borrow or otherwise raise the cash which will involve
a cost of capital, whilst lagging will attract interest as there will be surplus for investment.
D. EXTERNAL METHODS OF MANAGING EXCHANGE
RATE RISK AND EXPOSURE
It is not possible to eliminate exchange rate risk completely, but it is possible to reduce it by
way of hedging. Hedging the risk involves taking action now to reduce the possibility of a
future loss, usually at the cost of foregoing any possibility of a gain. A simple example in
relation to commodity trading should explain this.
A company knows that it will need certain goods in six months time. It is exposed to the risk
that the price of these goods may rise in the meantime. Entering into a forward contract
may reduce this risk to purchase the goods in six months time at a price fixed now.
However, if the price falls below the current price in the meantime, the company will have lost
the opportunity to make a gain.
Thus, the basis of hedging involves offsetting two transactions against each other:
A cash transaction, the receipt or payment of money arising from normal business
transactions (such as international trade or the management of funds).
Taking a position on (buying or selling) a derivative instrument linked to the type of
cash transaction.
There are a number of such financial derivatives relating to currency, forwards and futures
contracts, swaps and options. Options are somewhat different in that they offer the
possibility of making gains as well as hedging risk.
Principles of Hedging
As we noted above, hedging a risk involves taking action now to reduce the possibility of a
future loss, usually at the cost of foregoing any possibility of a gain. It is a process whereby
the exposure to potential loss caused by adverse movements in prices; interest rates and
exchange rates may be limited.
A hedge against exposure to risk is invariably constructed by using a financial derivative.
Again, as we noted above, there are a range of these instruments. They derive their value
from the price of underlying assets such as foreign currencies, commodities and fixed income
securities, etc. We can demonstrate the basic concept with an example using one such
instrument, a futures contract, in relation to exchange rate exposure.
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A UK company is going to receive a $100,000 in one months time as a result of some
consultancy work carried out in the USA. It is exposed to the risk that a (unfavourable)
movement in the /$ exchange rate before the payment is made will reduce its value.
However, it may hedge this risk by using a futures contract. The futures contract will
comprise a transaction to sell $100,000 in one months time (the time of its receipt) at a /$
exchange rate fixed today. The potential loss of value on the payment is, then, limited to the
difference between the current exchange rate and the agreed rate for the futures contract.
This reduces the companys exposure to any other adverse movements in the exchange
rate, but also means that it cannot take advantage of a favourable movement in the rate.
Futures are one of the derivatives that allow a financial risk to be reduced, but do not
(usually) allow any gain to come from favourable movements in the prices or rates underlying
the instrument. Other such derivatives include forward contracts and swaps. However,
these can be distinguished from option contracts which also allow a risk to be reduced, but
do allow gains to be made from favourable movements.
Forward Contracts
Forward foreign exchange contracts are a binding agreement between two parties to
exchange an agreed amount of currency on a future date at an agreed fixed exchange rate.
The exchange rate is fixed at the date the contract is entered into.
Forward contracts are tailor made to suit the needs of the parties and delivery dates can
range from a few days to upwards of several years, depending on the needs of the business.
They are binding and must be executed by both parties.
In most cases, forward contracts have a fixed settlement date. This is appropriate where the
cash transaction being hedged will take place on the same day that the forward contract is
settled. However, there is no guarantee that the two days will tally, for example, a customer
may be late paying, and in which case the fixed settlement date is less than optimal. An
alternative, to provide flexibility, is an option date forward contract. This offers a choice of
dates on which the user can exercise the contract, although there is a higher premium
payable on the contract for such an additional benefit.
The purpose of a forward exchange rate contract is to purchase currency at a future date at a
price fixed today. As such, it provides a complete hedge against adverse exchange rate
movements in the intervening period.
Consider the following example. (You do not need to worry about the detail of how the hedge
works, but showing the method illustrates the principles.)
A UK company needs to pay SG$1m to an Singapore company in three months time. The
current spot and forward exchange rates for sterling are as follows:
SG$/
Spot 2.730 2.735
3 months forward 4 3 cents pm
What would be the cost in sterling to the UK company if it enters into a forward contract to
purchase the SG$1m needed?
Note the way in which the rates are quoted. The spot rate (the current price) spread shows
the sell and buy prices, the banks will sell SG$s for sterling at the rate of SG$2.730/, and
buy SG$s in return for sterling at the rate of SG$2.735/. The forward rate is quoted in terms
of the premium (pm) in cents that the Singapore dollar is to sterling in the future. If the
currency is at a premium, it is strengthening and the SG$ will buy more pounds forward than
it will spot or, conversely, the pound will buy less SG$ forward than it will spot. (If the quoted
forward rate had been quoted at a discount, say, 3 cents dis this would indicate a
weakening of the currency.)
252 Risk and the International Business
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To calculate the cost of the forward contract, we need to convert the forward rate premium
into an exchange rate. Because it is a premium, we need to subtract the amount from the
spot to give the following sell/buy forward rates:
(2.730 0.04) (2.735 0.03) = 2.690 2.705 SG$/
The cost of buying SG$1m forward, therefore, is:
690 2
000 000 1
.
, , $ SG
= 371,747
Currency swaps
In general, a swap relates to an exchange of cashflows between two parties. Thus currency
swaps relate to an exchange of cashflows in different currencies between two parties. They
are agreements to exchange both a principal sum and the interest payments on it in different
currencies for a stated period. Each party transfers the principal and then pays interest to
the other on the principal received.
Swaps are arranged, through banks, to suit the needs of the parties involved.
The two key issues in setting up a currency swap is:
The exchange rate to be used.
Whether the exchange of principal is to take place at both commencement and
maturity, or only on maturity.
The following example illustrates the general principles. (Again, you should not be too
concerned with the detail, but just follow the principles.)
A German company is seeking to invest 20m in the UK and has been quoted an interest
rate of 8% on sterling in London, whereas the equivalent loan in Euros is quoted at 7% fixed
interest in Frankfurt. At the same time, a UK company wants to invest an equivalent amount
in its German subsidiary and has been quoted an interest rate of 7.5% to raise a loan
denominated in Euros on the Frankfurt Exchange. It could, however, raise the 20m in
sterling in London at 5% fixed interest.
In the absence of a swap, each company would have to accept the quoted terms for its loan
denominated in the foreign currency. This would result in both companies paying a higher
rate than would apply if the loan was raised in their domestic currency. A swap agreement
would involve each company taking out the loan in its own domestic currency and then
exchanging the principals. Each company would pay the interest on the principal received,
i.e. the other companys loan, and at the end of the loan period, the principals would be
swapped back.
The exchange rate to be applied is clearly crucial. If we assume that this is agreed as 1.3 =
1, the swap would be conducted as follows.
The UK company borrows 20m in England at an interest rate of 5% pa. It then swaps
the principal of 20m for 26m (at the agreed exchange rate) with the German
company. The German company pays the interest payments on the 20m loan (at 5%
interest) to the UK company, which then pays the bank. At the end of the loan period,
the principal of 26m is swapped back for the 20m with the German company.
The German company borrows 26m in Frankfurt at an interest rate of 7% pa. It then
swaps this principal with the UK company which pays the interest payments on the loan
(at 7% interest) to the German company, which then pays its bank. At the end of the
loan period, the principal of 20m is swapped back for the 26m with the UK company.
The process is illustrated in Figure 14.1.
Risk and the International Business 253
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Figure 14.1: Currency swap
Currency Futures
A currency futures contract is an agreement to purchase or sell a standard quantity of foreign
currency at a pre-determined date.
Futures contracts are exchange traded derivatives. That means that they are bought and
sold on organised exchanges such as the London International Financial Futures Exchange
(LIFFE). As such, there are certain rules affecting the way in which they are transacted, and
some specific terminology associated with them.
Futures contracts on a particular exchange are all of a standard size. For example, on
the IMM Chicago Exchange, the standard size sterling contracts are for 62,500 and
those for yen are for YEN12.5m. Thus, in order to hedge an exposure of million, it
would be necessary to take out eight contracts, each of which would be for 62,500.
Exchange traded contracts, whether futures or options, all have pre-determined
maturity dates on which delivery of the underlying asset occurs. For example, the
contracts quoted on the Chicago Exchange relate to delivery dates at the end of March,
June, September and December.
The vast majority of futures contracts are not delivered, but are closed out. This is a
process whereby the commitment entered into to buy the currency underlying the
contract is cancelled out by taking an opposite position in the market i.e. entering into a
contract to sell the same quantity. Any gain or loss from closing out can be set against
movements in the exchange rate.
Hedging with futures works as follows. A UK company exporting to the USA and invoicing in
US dollars, would need to hedge against a rise in the exchange rate (sterling strengthening
relative to the dollar) in the period before payment is received. If we assume that payment is
due in two months time, the exporter will need to sell dollars then in exchange for sterling.
The strategy would be, therefore, to take out a three-month sterling futures contract and
close it out in two months time i.e. buy sterling futures now, hold them for two months and
then sell them to cancel out the obligation to deliver the underlying currency. Any profit on
London bank Frankfurt bank
UK Company German Company
20m
20m
26m
26m
5%
interest
5% interest
7%
interest
7% interest
UK company now has
26m available for
investment at 7%
interest
German company now
has 20m available for
investment at 5%
interest
254 Risk and the International Business
ABE and RRC
the contract (the difference between the buying and selling prices) will offset any loss on the
dollars received from an exchange rate rise over the period.
We can illustrate the process in more detail by reference to the actions of a speculator who is
anticipating a rise in the value of the $ against the pound. He will, therefore, take a position
to sell sterling futures in anticipation that the future cost (in dollars) of buying the pounds
necessary to meet the contract obligation will be less than the proceeds of the sale under the
contract.
If the current spot rate is $2/ and December sterling futures are trading at $1.95/, what will
be the gain or loss on five sterling futures contracts if the spot rate in December is $1.9/?
(The standard size of sterling futures is 62,500.)
Sale of five December contracts (each of which is for 62,500) at the agreed rate of
$1.95/ results in proceeds of:
5 62,500 $1.95 = $609,375
Purchase of the equivalent amount in sterling in December at the spot rate of $1.9/
results in an outlay of:
5 62,500 $1.9 = $593,750
The gain on the transaction is $15,625 or, converting this into pounds at the spot rate,
8,223.68.
The advantage for the speculator of using the futures contract compared to the alternative of
buying sterling at the current spot rate is that he only needs to put down a small deposit
(called a margin account) as opposed to an up front investment of the full amount for the
five contracts of $625,000 (312,500 x $2).
Hedging using futures and forwards contracts
We can also consider the difference between a hedge using forward contracts and a hedge
using futures contracts.
In December, a UK exporter invoices its US customer for $482,500 payable on 1 February.
The exporter needs to hedge against a change in exchange rates whereby sterling becomes
stronger relative to the dollar and he receives less pounds than now upon exchange of the
dollars received in February. To hedge this exchange rate exposure, the company could take
out either a forward contract or a futures contract. Which would be more appropriate given
the following rates?
In December:
Spot rate $1.9275 1.9295/
February forward rate $1.9250 1.9275/
March sterling futures contracts $1.9300/
(Contract size is 62,500)
Those applying on 1 February:
Spot rate $1.9370 1.9390/
March sterling futures contracts $1.9355
Using a forward contract would require the exporter to commit to the sale of the dollar
receivables (i.e. $482,500) at the February forward price of $1.9275/, resulting in proceeds
of:
9275 1
500 482
.
, $
= 250,324
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The futures contract hedge would require the exporter to take a long position in sterling
futures, i.e. a commitment to buy sterling at the rate of $1.9300/, with the intention of closing
out the contract on 1 February, prior to the receipt of the dollars. If sterling does strengthen
against the dollar, this position will result in a gain. However if the exchange rate falls, then
the exporter will lose on the futures contract, but gain in the cash market.
The number of sterling futures contracts necessary to cover the exposure is:
9300 1
500 482
.
, $
500 62
1
,
= 4 contracts
The gain/loss on the futures transaction is calculated as follows:
Buy four March contracts in December at $1.9300/:
4 x 62,500 $1.9300 = $482,500
Sell four March futures contracts in February at $1.9355
4 x 62,500 $1.9355 = $483,875
Gain through closing out:
$483,875 $482,500 = $1,375
Converting this into sterling at the February spot rate gives a gain of:
9390 1
375 1
.
, $
= 709
The total proceeds from the futures hedge is calculated by adding this gain to the proceeds
of the exchange of the dollars received on 1 February at the then current spot rate of
1.9390$/:
9390 1
500 482
.
, $
= 248,839 + 709 = 249,548
This is marginally worse than the hedge using the forward contract.
Currency Options
A currency option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specified
amount of currency at an agreed exchange rate (the exercise price) at a specific future
date.
Using the options market to hedge exchange rate exposure sets a limit on the loss that can
be made in the case of adverse movements in exchange rates, but also allows the holder to
take advantage of favourable movements.
There are a number of different types of option contract available on the various options
exchanges around the world (the main ones being the LIFFE, New York, Philadelphia,
Montreal and Chicago exchanges). As with futures contracts, these organised exchanges
offer standard format options in which the main elements of the contract are pre-determined:
Size, each currency option contract being in denominations of exactly half of those for
futures contracts (thus, the standard contract sizes for sterling options are 31,500).
Exercise price, as determined by the market.
Option period, with an expiry date usually of three months (or in multiples of three
months).
It is also possible to establish option contracts outside of the organised exchanges. Such
options are known as over the counter (OTC) options, and the individual elements (size,
exercise price, expiry date) maybe negotiated and agreed between the buyer and seller.
256 Risk and the International Business
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Options tend to be more expensive than other derivatives since they offer the possibility of
making gains should the movement in the underlying asset be favourable (in contrast to
futures and forward contracts).
General principles of options
There are two types of option contract:
(i) Call option This is an option to buy currency.
The buyer of a call option (said to be holding a long call) is anticipating that
exchange rates will rise. He will only exercise the option (i.e. buy the currency) if
the spot rate of the currency is above that specified as the exercise price.
The risk exposure is limited to the amount of the premium in the case of the
exchange rate falling below the exercise price, whereas the potential gain is the
difference between the spot rate and the (lower) exercise price.
The seller of a call option is said to be holding a short call. This position is the
exact opposite of the buyers position. He is obliged to sell the currency at the
exercise price, but will only have to do so where the option is exercised by the
buyer i.e. if the spot rate is above the exercise price.
The potential profit is limited to the price of the option, but there is exposure to
the risk of having to sell the currency at a loss.
(ii) Put option This is an option to sell currency.
These will be purchased where it is anticipated that the exchange rate may fall.
The buyer of a put option (a long put) will only exercise the option (i.e. sell the
currency) if the spot rate falls below the exercise price. This establishes a ceiling
on any loss incurred if the option is not exercised, but allows profits to be taken if
the spot rate falls and the option is exercised.
The risk exposure is limited to the amount of the premium in the case of the
exchange rate rising above the exercise price, whereas the potential gain is the
difference between the exercise price and the (lower) spot rate.
The seller of a put option is said to be holding a short put. This position is,
again, the exact opposite of the buyers position. He is obliged to buy the
currency at the exercise price, but will only have to do so where the option is
exercised i.e. if the spot rate is below the exercise price.
Again, the potential profit is limited to the price of the option, but there is
exposure to the risk of having to buy the currency at a loss.
Hedging with currency options
The following example illustrates their use. Again, you need not be too concerned with
the details, but just get to grips with the general principles.
At the beginning of July, a UK company purchased goods to the value of $250,000 from
its US supplier on three months credit, payable at the end of September.
Because the company needs to pay for the goods in dollars, it needs a strategy that
enables it to sell pounds and buy dollars. The two choices, then, are a long put or a
short call in sterling options. The short call, though, can only provide protection against
exchange rate losses up to the cost of the premium, so the favoured strategy would be
a long put.
We shall assume the following exchange rates:
July $1.92/
September $1.85/
Risk and the International Business 257
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The relevant sterling options offered on the Philadelphia exchange (with standard
contract sizes of 31,250) are at the following prices:
Strike price September puts
1.9 2.32
1.91 2.65
1.92 3.22
In this case, the company decides to buy a September put option with a strike price of
$1.9/. It could have opted for a different strike price, but this would have incurred
higher premiums (albeit for a higher degree of protection).
The strategy works in the following way:
The company needs to raise $250,000 which, at the exercise price of $1.9/,
equates to 131,579. To cover this amount, it will need to purchase five standard
contracts. The premium paid will be:
$3,625 5 31,250 x
100
32 2
= |
.
|
\
| .
In sterling, at the current exchange rate, that is:
1,888
92 1
625 3
=
.
,
Because the spot exchange rate has declined during the period (the dollar having
strengthened), it is advantageous to exercise the put option i.e. less pounds will
need to be exchanged at the exercise price than at the spot price to buy the
required amount of dollars.
Total proceeds from exercising all five option contracts:
5 31,250 $1.9 = $296,875 (more than matching the liability)
The net sterling cost of the transaction will be:
131,579 1,888 = 129,691
If the option was not exercised, then the liability in dollars would need to be realised by
selling sterling on the spot market. The cost involved here would be:
135,135
85 1
000 250
=
.
, $
Thus, using a long put results in a saving of:
135,135 129,691 = 5,444
Money Market Hedge
The money market can be used to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations by borrowing an
amount in foreign currency equal to the value of, say, invoiced exported goods, exchanging it
for the domestic currency at the spot rate, and then using the receipts from the customer to
repay the loan.
Effectively, this method uses the matching principle we saw earlier in respect of internal
hedging, but applies it to the creation of an asset/liability in the money market, to match the
liability/asset that needs to be hedged.
Thus, a UK exporter due a sum of dollars in three months time may eliminate the exchange
rate exposure by borrowing the sum of dollars at the outset, creating a matching liability. It
258 Risk and the International Business
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can then exchange the dollars for sterling at the current spot rate, fixing the exchange rate on
the transaction. The sterling can then be invested for the three months. If the money
markets and the foreign exchange markets are in equilibrium, we can expect that interest
rate parity holds and the interest earned on the sterling investment will offset any change in
the exchange rate. The dollars received can be used to pay off the loan, plus interest
accrued, in three months time. This should, then, provide the same result as a forward
currency hedge.
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Study Unit 15
The International Business Case Study Guidance
Contents Page
Introduction 260
A. Initial Reading 261
What Does a Case Study Tell You? 261
Getting to Grips with the Scenario 261
Making Notes 262
B. Detailed Analysis 263
Structuring the Analysis 264
Evaluation Considerations 264
Designing Solutions 266
C. The Examination 267
Preparing for the Examination 267
Tackling the Questions 268
Formal Requirements 268
260 The Importance and Nature of International Business
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INTRODUCTION
The method of assessment for the International Business Case Study module is by means of
a case study. This final unit in the Study Manual provides guidance on the approach to case
studies in general and how you may prepare for the examination itself.
The ABE will send you the actual case study upon which you will be examined approximately
four weeks before the actual examination date. This is to enable you to study the case and
ensure that you are thoroughly familiar with it before going into the examination room where
you will be given a number of questions to answer about it. The examination itself is an
"open book" examination that is, you can take any materials you like with you into the
examination to help you answer the questions. You can, therefore, make detailed notes
about the case study beforehand, and identify other sources of information which you think
may help you, and use them during the examination. (Note that any notes and other
materials should not be handed in as part of your answers you will only be marked on what
you write during the examination itself.)
It is important, then, that you make the best of the time between receiving the case study and
the examination date to prepare for the examination. The approach we recommend, and that
which is set out in this study unit, is as follows:
Initial reading identifying the general background and main themes, issues and
problems described in the case.
Detailed analysis - working through the case in more detail to identify underlying
issues and problems, and potential solutions, and also to pick out information which
you can use to support your analysis.
Getting ready for the examination organising your notes and preparing for the written
examination itself.
Note that, as you work through this unit, examples are given to illustrate the process of
preparation and analysis, rather than the content. When you start working on your
examination case study for real, you will need to consider the whole broad range of
international business concepts as covered in the study manual and the recommended
further reading, and select from those according to the content and context of the actual case
study.
Cases specifically directed to International Business can involve you in problem situations in
manufacturing, financial, distributive or service organisations in many parts of the world.
Within these varied spheres of operations, problems arise in similar ways for example, in
organisation, planning, personnel attitudes and relationships, procedures, systems,
techniques, laws and socio-economic pressures. You must be prepared to undertake your
analysis in any of these fields, from knowledge and experience acquired in your work and
studies. It may be that the case relates to an industry which is unfamiliar to you, but with the
pre-examination period to prepare, you should be able to do some research on how such a
business would operate in real life.
One final piece of general advice is that you should find it useful to look at some of the
previous case studies (and their specimen answers) as shown on the ABE website. You
could even try working through one of these, using the approach given in this unit, as
practice for both preparing for and tackling your own examination.
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A. INITIAL READING
When you receive the case study, set some time aside for a first reading. This should be a
"read through" only do not consciously try to make any judgments at this stage. They will
come later. The object is to read it as you would read an article in a newspaper to get a
general impression of, perhaps, a football match or a court case which has taken place. The
case provides a scenario in which the current situation is presented, probably set against a
historical background and setting out certain information about the personnel and other main
factors involved. Read it informally, without pausing, and delay your formal study so as to
allow a period during which you can digest what you have read. In this way, you give time for
ideas to develop. Do not be tempted to concentrate on a point which appears to you to have
immediate interest it is unlikely to be something which can be considered in isolation and
so it is better to obtain an overall impression of events at the first reading and study the detail
later when you look for issues, evaluate them and consider what to do.
What Does a Case Study Tell You?
Case studies are used extensively in professional management training to give an insight
into "real life" situations. The study of problems and solutions through the detailed
consideration of such situations has long been a training feature of law and medicine and is
now used to train managers and administrators in industry and government by enabling
them to obtain experience from case analysis.
In essence, you are the "case analyst" and are required to bring to the study a broad
knowledge of business principles and techniques, understanding of human behaviour in the
work environment, and ability to assess the pressures and influences which affect an
organisation. This means asking the questions:
What has happened in the past?
What is the current situation?
What should be done now and for the future?
A case, though, is not just a limited description of a situation, an example crystallised and
static, but is dynamic in the sense that it is the result of past events and changes in
organisation, its finances or personnel, and is subject to future influences from within and
from outside the organisation which may affect decisions.
Getting to Grips with the Scenario
Whilst each case is different in form and detail, there is a fundamental basic structure which
enables you, the analyst, to assess the main activities involved. In a study of a global trading
organisation, for example, the main features presented may be:
Current situation within the company and the business environment
Organisation, objectives and strategies
History of change and development
Functional performances related to company strategies.
Try to visualise the company described in the case what is going on, what would it be like
to work there, what are the main features, etc. Even if you have no experience of the
particular industry, you will no doubt have some experience of similar situations and the sort
of problems which can occur.
Your initial reading, then, should aim to pick out the general picture of developing events
against a background of corporate development over a period of time. However, be careful
of jumping to conclusions at this stage. For example, you may initially think that the
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problems centre on human resources and their attitudes and relationships. This may be so,
but you may find other reasons within the organisation as a whole which will lead you to take
a wider view and understanding of what may be going wrong, what ought to have been done
and what you consider should be done.
You should be looking for information about the organisation in the form of performance data
(financial or otherwise), management structures, processes and procedures, personnel, etc.
which will indicate the strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise. You also need to assess
the environment within which the business is operating to see what factors are impacting on
it both on its internal organisation and procedures, and its strategies and policies in relation
to the market.
Note that these features will be presented in different degrees of detail according to the
particular situation and this will give you a clue as to where the key themes and issues lie.
You will need to understand and evaluate these main features, assessing the degree of
emphasis given to the constituent parts, in order to identify problems and what opportunities
there are for action to be taken to remedy them.
As you start to understand the situation, consider the extent to which the areas in which
these key themes and issues lie contribute towards the provision of an efficient service and
to organisational profitability. From the evidence given, ask yourself how far these two
objectives are fulfilled and the reasons for any shortcomings which you find.
Understanding the situation within an organisation is the first step towards identifying the
problem (or problems) and asking why it has occurred, to what extent, how long it has
existed and what are the results now and for the future.
Problems may be organisational, process or procedural, financial or a question of personal
relationships, but what we see initially are often the symptoms only.
Just as a doctor's first study of an illness is of the symptoms, so, in studying an organisation,
you may see only the symptoms arising from underlying problems within the organisation.
For example, problems of late delivery, apparently requiring an organisational upheaval in
distribution, may in fact be caused by inefficient inventory control allowing insufficient lead
times to allow for efficient production. Uncompetitive high prices may be due less to efficient
production processes than to a lack of a standardisation, perhaps caused by a reluctance on
the part of design to consider the savings potential of standardisation or to the use of
acceptable commercial tolerances available in the supply market at lower prices.
Problems present symptoms and their solution normally dispels the surface symptoms. But
be wary there are cases where symptoms may still appear when the problem has been
solved. For example, a bad image created by late payment of bills may linger in the shape of
a poor credit reputation. This does not necessarily apply to all cases, but is an example of
why the identification of a problem must depend on the need to diagnose underlying
problems rather than simply their symptoms.
Making Notes
At this stage, having obtained a general idea of the situation, you will find it useful to start
making notes of ideas which come to mind. These need not necessarily be in any particular
order initially, but they will form the basis for a more formal arrangement later.
The following headings, for example, may be useful in describing the company's situation.
(a) Current situation
What sort of organisation are you dealing with?
Is it large or small?
What does it do?
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Where does it operate?
Who are the key players?
How long have they been there?
What are their aims?
(b) Company organisation
How is the company controlled?
Who makes decisions?
(c) Company strategy/policies
What are the key current strategies
Are there any future plans
(d) Company finances
What is the general situation with the company's finance?
Is it profitable?
(d) Company sites
Where is the company situated?
Is there more than one site?
Does this cause logistical problems?
(e) Company staff
How many are there?
Over how many sites?
What sort of age groupings/nationalities?
(f) Company problems
What are the symptoms especially in relation to efficient service provision and
profitability
What particular problems have you identified so far?
B. DETAILED ANALYSIS
The case study in which you will be examined will describe a situation dealing with a range of
international business issues at strategic level. You may be asked, in the examination, to
analyse what has happened to cause the current situation and any problems which are
apparent, to consider what will be the result if the current situation is allowed to continue
without adjustment and/or, by predicting alternative paths in future operations, offer strategic
or operational solutions. Often you will be asked for alternative solutions based on
predictions of what may happen as a result of following different courses of action, with
recommendations for which course of action should be adopted..
In order to prepare for this, you will have to go much further in your analysis of the case than
just the initial reading. Here, we suggest some of the considerations to be borne in mind in
doing so.
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Structuring the Analysis
In essence, the analysis should seek to determine:
What is happening and why;
What should be happening;
How the situation may be remedied.
The stages in making this determination are as follows.
(a) Evaluation of the data and information provided
Here you should be isolating the relevant information and assessing and organising it
so that the you get a detailed and clear picture of the situation.
(b) Identification of the key issues
From your evaluation, you should be in a position to clarify the key issues in the
situation. Remember that these may not necessarily be specific problems, but may
also include potential problems or difficulties, threats or opportunities, etc.
(c) Analysis of the issues
This should detail the evidence associated with the key issues i.e. the causes which
will need to be addressed in seeking solutions. These may be organisational
(structure, management, governance, etc.), process and procedural (including
systems), strategic or policy related, resource driven (including finance and personnel)
or operational. Whilst there will be a concentration on weaknesses, do not ignore
strengths it is often these which can be built upon in proposing solutions.
(d) Identification of possible solutions
Now you need to get your creative hat on and think what can be done about the
problems, etc. which you have identified. It is unlikely that there will be just one
solution, so you need to consider what alternative approaches may be possible and
what the outcomes of these may be. You should try to predict the results of pursuing
different courses of action, taking into consideration potential different circumstances in
which they may be played out (contingencies).
You should also be thinking about which are the best solutions in different
circumstances, and how you would justify recommending one course of action over
another. However, do not get too fixated on particular solutions as the circumstances
in which you may need to make a decision will be dictated by the questions in the
examination, rather than just the information in the case. What is important is that you
have considered a range of possibilities and can then bring them into play in the
examination when you see exactly what is asked.
Evaluation Considerations
You need to build up a detailed body of knowledge about the situation, and this will need to
go further than just the information and data presented to you as the case study. You will
have to work out what that information and data is telling you about the situation. Key
considerations in this evaluation include the following.
Concentrate on the facts
Ask yourself whether the information provided is entirely factual. You may be
presented with opinion in the form of commentaries on the situation or anecdotal
evidence supplied by persons involved in the company. How significant is this?
Apart from the validity of information, there is also the relevance of the material to the
main features of the case and its problems. You must ask yourself whether the
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information is relevant to the analysis or is necessary only to provide a total description
of the situation and events, i.e. mere "padding".
In addition, you need to retain objectivity in your assessment of situations and events.
Everything you use to build your analysis must be supported by evidence even
assumptions about what you might consider to be the case must be backed by
evidence which suggests that your interpretation is true. Note that, when you come to
proposing particular courses of action, these too must be supported by evidence and
not simply your own personal opinion or what you consider right.
Don't expect everything you need to be presented to you
You are likely to have to look beyond the evidence presented to identify some of the
issues and problems. What you are given may well just be the symptoms and you will
need to use the information to look for the underlying issues or problems. It requires
the capacity to interpret data and combine qualitative with quantitative assessments, to
see a problem clearly and objectively.
So, for example, a problem of poor teamwork may not necessarily be evident from the
formal organisation charts (although they may be relevant to underlying problems and
offer ways of finding a solution). There may be significant information missing from that
presented here, for example, job descriptions which may be relevant to the
situation and also need to be noted.
(Note that, if you have to answer a question in the examination on which you think that
sufficient factual information has not been provided in the case, your answer may be
subject to assumptions which you have had to make to proceed with the analysis.
Explain this in your answer and justify your assumptions as far as you can by related
evidence.)
Note that the case may not be full of unsolved problems. You may need to look for
potential difficulties and ways of avoiding future problems.
Use knowledge and techniques from different disciplines
Whilst the case study is very much set in the context of international business, do not
limit yourself to just using the knowledge and skills built up in this module. Business
success depends on the effective interdependence of all the different aspects which
make up the total enterprise, and you should similarly apply your broad understanding
of the business world to the case study. That means bringing in concepts and
techniques from economics, law, quantitative methods, financial management, etc.
The information given in the case may be sufficient in some respects, but there may
often be parts of it which, as they stand, are inadequate to make a judgment. This is
particularly so in the provision of quantitative and financial data. You need to assess
any performance figures given to you in the case and consider whether you need to
obtain more sensitive indicators, both operating and financial. For example, sets of
figures and general summaries may not clearly identify trends or the extent of change.
The use of key ratios to indicate operational or financial performances should be
computed where possible from the information given. (Note that the use of such
techniques in support of judgments will indicate to the examiner the extent of your
analysis.)
This is also true when you come to considering possible solutions to problems. For
example, consider whether there is scope for building performance models to
demonstrate the results to be expected from alternative solutions, by using available
statistics. Could you forecast, by extrapolation and suitable weighting, the effect of
variables and different contingencies on results?
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Consider inter-relationships between elements of the case
Organisations consist of series of inter-related activities, and often it is success at the
interface between such activities or systems which determine effectiveness in overall
performance. So, consider how the different elements of the case fit together to
produce the overall picture and do not just look at them in isolation from each other.
For example, in manufacturing, materials management overlaps with physical
distribution management at the production stage, and in distribution, purchasing and
sales personnel form a combined merchandising exercise. Problems in any of these
areas may be the result of issues elsewhere, and you need to look for any evidence
that may support such a view.
Think about the availability and application of resources
A company operates by setting objectives, and to fulfil the objectives there must be
planning. For plans to be successful, they require adequate resources, and those
resources need to appropriately applied. Optimum utilisation of resources and the
avoidance of problems rests with skilled management.
You need to consider all aspects of this use of resources are they adequate to meet
the objectives, can additional resources be obtained, how successful is their current
management, etc.
Consider strengths and opportunities as well as weaknesses and problems
When assessing the current situation, do not just look for problems, but consider the
strengths of the business and the opportunities that are available. For example, the
financial position may be strong (although possibly under-utilised), the market position
held by the company may be dominant (despite problems elsewhere) or the
competition may be weak or have its own problems. From strengths arise
opportunities to exploit those strengths and develop the company's position.
Don't lose sight of the environment
Companies operate in competitive markets which are subject to change and can be
affected by a wide range of variables. These present threats and opportunities. In
assessing the current situation, you need to think carefully about the environment
within which the company is operating and how this impacts now, and may impact in
the future, on both the company's policies and its operations. Remember the SLEPT
analysis social, legal, economic, political and technological factors as a means of
analysing the environment.
Designing Solutions
When you have completed your analysis of the current situation and identified what you see
as the key issues whether they are current or potential future problems, or possible
opportunities which may be exploited you need to think about what needs to be done to
achieve the best results for the company. The key questions are, how can the present
situation be changed and what will be the result of those changes?
Some of the considerations to bear in mind in answering these questions include the
following.
Consider possible alternatives
A determination to find one way of resolving a problem situation with the certainty it
would be the right one ignores the fact that, in a dynamic industrial organisation, many
variables have to be taken into account which may lead to the possibility of more than
one solution. There is rarely one simple solution to a problem, and the complexities of
organisations mean that you may find a number of ways in which the issues may be
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dealt with. These may also be applied in different combinations to address multiple
parts of the problems.
Work with the information you have
You only have the information provided, and anything that you can justifiably infer or
deduce from that information, to go on. Any future courses of action proposed, then,
must fit that information.
Predict the outcomes of courses of action
It is important to work through the impact of changes so that you can justify taking a
particular course of action, or recommend one course of action as opposed to another.
This may be by using quantitative methods to predict changes in, say, cash flows or
production capabilities, or qualitative assessments of, say, the impact on working
patterns and staffing.
Use contingency planning
Whilst you must fit solutions to the present situation as described in the case study, it is
also important that you consider how the situation may develop (using the information
provided as your starting point, but also bringing in your own understanding of the
circumstances surrounding the case). Any solutions will need to stand up in the future
situation, so you need to test outcomes against a range of potential future scenarios.
This is the basis of contingency planning what will happen if
C. THE EXAMINATION
Preparing for the Examination
Since you receive the case study several weeks ahead of the examination date, you will
have plenty of time to analyse the case and build up your understanding. It is important to
ensure that the results of your analysis are at your fingertips when you go into the
examination room. As this is an "open book" examination, you are allowed to take any
material which may help into the examination room. This can be your own notes, books or
any other printed or copied material you have acquired.
You should ensure that such materials are well organised so that you can access the
information you need about any aspect of the case quickly and easily. You might, for
example, use a system with a number of headings such as company situation,
environment, threats, opportunities, specific problems/solutions, financial and quantitative
analyses and detail both the facts (and your interpretations of them) and your ideas under
each.
Make sure that all your thoughts and ideas about the case are written down do not simply
rely on your memory to recall them in the examination room. Even just a couple of words in
your notes can be enough to jog your memory.
You may find it helpful to try to predict possible questions and note them with the points
which you consider would answer them. Ask yourself what points you see as particularly
suitable for questioning there will usually be a number which seem obvious, and these are
likely to emerge from your analysis and identification of the key issues. However, do not
place so much emphasis on this that you ignore other areas. There are no guarantees that
your prediction of questions will be right and you need to be prepared for whatever is asked
of you.
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Tackling the Questions
What is expected of you in answering the questions? It is required that you bring to the
analysis:
A sound knowledge of the International Business syllabus and all related subjects, and
that you apply their essential theories, principles and techniques to a realistic business
situation.
The ability to identify problems and provide a solution or alternative solutions if
appropriate to the problem, and make a recommendation which can be justified.
The communication skills to produce a logical, clear analysis, and, if necessary,
present a well-written report, i.e. legible and free from grammatical and spelling
mistakes.
You have no doubt been urged many times to read the examination questions carefully for
their meaning and extent, and to answer directly what the question requires. This exhortation
bears repetition.
And finally, here are a few more pointers to getting the right approach to answering the
questions:
Plan to use the time allowed to give adequate time to each question.
Plan the content and structure of each answer.
Plan the presentation clearly written in short paragraphs in logical order, using figures
or diagrams where appropriate.
Marshall your main points give brief explanations, supported by examples of
techniques and data charts where relevant and helpful.
Support your diagnosis of the problems or issues with relevant evidence, using facts
and figures derived from your analysis.
Treat the impulse to make assumptions with care, be objective and seek to link any
assumptions with evidence.
Justify recommendations by reasoned arguments, again supported by facts and figures
(including projections).
Do not assume the examiner can read your mind. Explain your answer.
Make sure your handwriting is legible.
Formal Requirements
The formal requirements in respect of the examination are as follows:
1. You should acquaint yourself thoroughly with the Case Study before the examination.
2. You must take your copy of the Case Study into the examination.
3. Time allowed: 3 hours
4. Answer ALL questions
5. All questions carry different marks. Note the mark allocation and budget your time
accordingly
6. Calculators are allowed
7. This is an open book examination and you may consult any previously prepared written
material or texts during the examination. You must not insert such material into your
answer book. Only answers that are written during the examination on paper supplied
by the examination centre will be marked.
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8. Candidates who break ABE regulations, or commit any malpractice, will be disqualified
from the examinations.
You should also find the following table, which sets out the criteria for grading the case study
(and cites good and bad examples), useful.
Grade Knowledge and
Comprehension
Analysis and
Application
Communication Skills
1
(Distinction)
Quotes appropriate
theoretical knowledge
e.g. theories and
techniques.
Demonstrates
adequate
comprehension of
knowledge, e.g. by use
of illustrative example,
analogy or explanation.
Applies
theories/principles
correctly to the
circumstances quoted.
Analyses the situation
and inter-relates
material from various
parts of the case.
Considers and
evaluates alternative
solutions where these
exist. Evaluation leads
to selection of a
feasible solution (not
necessarily the 'best'
solution).
Logical structuring of
the entire answer.
Analysis and
evaluation are
developed
comprehensively, i.e.
no faults or gaps in the
logic. Answer is well
laid out, well presented
(use of headings,
illustrations, tables, etc)
and well written
(legible, grammatically
correct and effective
style of writing).
2
(Very good
pass)
Quotes appropriate
theoretical knowledge
e.g. theories (correctly
attributed), principles
and techniques.
Demonstrates
adequate
comprehension of
knowledge, e.g. by use
of illustrative examples,
analogy or explanation.
Application of
theories/principles
shows some
weaknesses, e.g.
failure to recognise all
limitations or to use all
evidence available.
Alternative solutions
are not fully evaluated,
even if the 'right'
solution is reached.
Logical structuring of
the entire answer.
Analysis and
evaluation are
developed
comprehensively, i.e.
no faults or gaps in the
logic. Answer is well
laid out, well presented
(use of headings,
illustrations, tables etc)
and well written
(legible, grammatically
correct and effective
style of writing).
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Grade Knowledge and
Comprehension
Analysis and
Application
Communication Skills
4
(Marginal
fail)
Shows a reasonable
grasp of basic
theories/principles but
some elements appear
to be lacking.
Comprehension is not
fully proven, e.g. basic
facts are quoted
(correctly) but not
explained, no
illustrative examples
used.
Circumstances
inadequately analysed
and hence fails to
recognise major
problems which need
to be considered.
Does not demonstrate
the ability to apply
knowledge which
he/she obviously has in
a practical way (these
are common faults,
often demonstrated by
mere repetition of
material from the case
study).
Answer is adequately
presented, given the
limitations of analysis
and application.
Structure is poor,
although knowledge is
reasonably clear.
Grammar is at a
marginal level.
5
(Clear fail)
Answer reveals
fundamental gaps or
misunderstandings in
basic knowledge, and
fails to reveal adequate
comprehension even of
correct theories and
principles.
Poor analysis of
circumstances.
Applications totally
unsatisfactory due to a
lack of knowledge and
comprehension.
Answer very poorly
presented, and difficult
to follow.