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 Environ. Res. Lett. 19 (2024) 021001 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad059e

PERSPECTIVE

An environmental and socially just climate mitigation pathway for

OPEN ACCESS
a planet in peril
RECEIVED
7 June 2023 William J Ripple1,2,6,∗, Christopher Wolf3,6,∗, Detlef P van Vuuren4, Jillian W Gregg3
REVISED and Manfred Lenzen5
13 October 2023
1
Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331,
ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION
20 October 2023
United States of America
2
Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR, United States of America
PUBLISHED 3
Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates, Corvallis, OR 97330, United States of America
9 January 2024 4
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
5
ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Original content from 6
These contributed equally to this work.
this work may be used ∗
Authors to whom any correspondence should be addressed.
under the terms of the
Creative Commons E-mail: [email protected] and [email protected]
Attribution 4.0 licence.
Any further distribution Keywords: ecological overshoot, climate change, scenario modeling
of this work must
maintain attribution to Supplementary material for this article is available online
the author(s) and the title
of the work, journal
citation and DOI.

Climate change—a critical issue that many consider a 1. Vital signs data analysis
major threat for life on Earth—is a symptom of eco-
logical overshoot, long-term consumption and pro- We compiled long-term historical data for vari-
duction patterns that lead to excessive and unsus- ables related to human activities, land use, and the
tainable environmental pressure. To address climate atmosphere from various sources (see supplemental
change, we must address these underlying causes methods). For each variable, we used data from
and take steps towards sustainable living practices 1500 CE (1500 AD), when available, to increase con-
that prioritize the health of the biosphere and all textual awareness and clearly display recent trends.
its human and nonhuman inhabitants. Earlier com- In addition to fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emis-
pilations of anthropogenic environmental pressures sions, three greenhouse gas concentrations, and sur-
have typically only considered the last few decades. face temperature, we included human population,
Here, we put relevant variables into context for the per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), three land
last 500 years using a diverse and likely novel set use variables, vertebrate species abundance, and an
of key data. Our long-term graphical account illus- equity variable (top 10% share of income). For most
trates how humanity’s collective demand for natural variables, we also obtained shared socioeconomic
resources is greatly accelerating on multiple fronts. pathway (SSP) projections up to the year 2100 for the
Furthermore, we display and examine an ambi- SSP1-1.9 pathway, which corresponds to low future
tious and commonly used climate mitigation scen- emissions (see supplemental methods).
ario, and propose a holistic, restorative scenario be
considered, which is inspired by existing scenarios 2. Historical trends
(Van Vuuren et al 2017). Our proposed ecologically-
grounded and socially just scenario requires long- Unchecked growth of industrial production over the
term comprehensive changes that could be imple- past two centuries has led to an unprecedented rise
mented using short-term incremental steps (radical in energy consumption, with fossil fuels remain-
incrementalism). It illustrates how humanity can mit- ing the primary source of energy (figures 1(a)–
igate converging crises and realize diverse co-benefits, (c)). This has led to a strong increase in green-
including potentially increasing global biodiversity house gas emissions. Furthermore, land use change,
and social equity. We argue that strong social out- particularly deforestation (driven by agricultural
comes and global justice, as in the proposed scen- land expansion and wood demand), has also been
ario, should be given greater consideration in climate one of the major contributors to climate change
scenarios. (figures 1(d), (e) and (j)). Additionally, agricultural

© 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd

Environ. Res. Lett. 19 (2024) 021001 W J Ripple et al

Figure 1. Visualizing a restorative pathway. Each panel shows a different planetary vital sign, including historical estimates and
projections through 2100 under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, when available. Stylized projections for the proposed restorative pathway
are only shown for cases where it likely differs substantially from SSP1-1.9; these projections are intended as a general qualitative
overview of the pathway. All variables show a history of rapid change, often beginning around 1850 when fossil fuel use began to
accelerate rapidly. See supplemental methods for sources and details on the variables.

practices such as livestock farming and fertilizer show a stark pattern comparable to the classic hockey
use on crops emit significant amounts of green- stick pattern originally observed for global temper-
house gasses such as methane and nitrous oxide. ature (Mann 2021) for nearly all of our variables.
The loss of forests and other natural ecosystems Specifically, our results show a great escalation begin-
impacts biodiversity and also reduces the ability of ning around 1850 for most variables (figure 1). If
the land to absorb and store carbon, exacerbating the combined with information on carrying capacity or
problem. planetary boundaries, these data could be used to
The magnitudes of the changes since 1500 CE explore the possibility that human demands on mul-
are enormous. For example, the world’s forest lands tiple fronts have greatly accelerated and may have
declined by 21% (9.7 million km2 ) while livestock approached or exceeded the biosphere’s regenerat-
grazing lands increased six-fold (27.7 million km2 ) ive capacity (Steffen et al 2015, Rockström et al
and crop lands increased six-fold (13.3 million km2 ) 2023). From a population, fossil fuel, greenhouse
(figures 1(d)–(f)). Changes in land use and other gasses, temperature, and land use perspective, the
human pressures contributed to mean vertebrate mid 19th century (∼1850) stands out as a compel-
species abundance (relative to 1970) declining by 69% ling choice among the potential starting points for the
(figure 1(k)). Taken together, our graphical results Anthropocene.

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Environ. Res. Lett. 19 (2024) 021001 W J Ripple et al

3. SSP1 climate mitigation scenario involves deforestation, soil degradation, and deple-
tion of freshwater resources. Likewise, agriculture is
As a future climate scenario under optimistic condi- the largest source of nitrous oxide emissions, mostly
tions we selected and graphed the SSP1 scenario in from nitrogen-based fertilizers and livestock manure,
combination with stringent climate policy (SSP1-1.9) both of which release nitrous oxide during decom-
to the year 2100 which has a ‘green growth’ storyline position. There has been little research and a serious
that involves significant changes in energy produc- gap in global policy on nitrous oxide; it has been dan-
tion, land use, and other areas (Van Vuuren et al gerously neglected despite its important and rising
2017). With this scenario, we see a bending of the contribution to global heating (Nisbet et al 2021). The
curves toward a more sustainable direction for some obvious remedy is to greatly expand mostly plant-
variables as we move through the rest of this cen- based diets or develop laboratory meat (if it can scale
tury (figure 1). This includes a projected downturn up) to curb both the conversion of wildlands into cro-
in human population (beginning around 2050), live- plands for livestock feed and the increases in nitrous
stock grazing land, carbon dioxide, and methane, but oxide levels. Other work, however, has shown that by
per capita GDP, croplands, and nitrous oxide con- a more substantial transition to less meat-intensive
tinue upward. Within SSP1-1.9, forest lands are pro- diets it is possible to decrease both crop and livestock
jected to increase by ∼0.9 million km2 , and live- grazing land (Van Vuuren et al 2018, Willett et al 2019,
stock production is expected to peak around 2050, but Leclère et al 2020).
still remains ∼6% higher than current levels by 2100
(table S1). 4. The ‘Restorative’ pathway
In the SSP1-1.9 scenario, fossil fuel CO2 emis-
sions would be quickly slashed in combination with SSP1-1.9 presents a useful and detailed depiction of
the strong reliance on carbon capture technology green growth, but we believe there is value in com-
to provide net negative emissions of 5.5–12.0 Gt paring it to other, sustainability-focused storylines.
CO2 yr−1 by 2100 (figure 1(a)). Negative emissions Therefore, we call for the development of a new res-
technologies are still in the very early stages of devel- torative pathway scenario that would go further for
opment (Martin-Roberts et al 2021). They currently sustainability and equity than the current SSP1. It
capture some 0.045 Gt of CO2 —more than two would involve significantly bending not just some,
orders of magnitude below the above target (IEA but all of the curves in figure 1 with a minimal need
2023)—and there are major uncertainties around to rely on carbon capture technologies. The scenario
their efficacy, scalability, and potential environmental would also focus on reducing the consumption of
and social impacts (Anderson and Peters 2016). primary resources to keep environmental pressures
Research should continue, but relying on major car- within planetary boundaries. The restorative pathway
bon removal strategies at this time may result in a false would represent a more equitable and resilient world
sense of security and delay the necessary actions to with a focus on nature preservation with vast reserves
address climate change. as a natural climate solution; post-growth econom-
The SSP1 storyline assumes continuing economic ics; societal well-being and quality of life; equality
growth (∼26% GDP/decade, figure 1(c)). It is an and high levels of education for girls and women res-
open question whether this is a desirable economic ulting in low fertility rates with higher standards of
pathway. Some studies have shown that absolute living; more efficient crop fertilizer use; a diet shift
decoupling is possible and in fact has already occurred with major reductions in meat production; and a
historically (Le Quéré et al 2019). However, this rapid transition towards renewable energy (figures 1
trend would need to be sustained at higher rates and S1).
of decarbonization over a long period and glob- The restorative pathway builds on the current
ally, so far, global carbon emissions continue to rise SSP1 and other sustainability scenarios (e.g. Van
with increased economic activity (Hickel et al 2021). Vuuren et al 2018, Grubler et al 2018, Leclère et al
Moreover, there is also a debate on the desirabil- 2020, Hickel et al 2021, Soergel et al 2021) with a
ity of income growth itself. High-income countries positive vision for the future, where production pri-
may not need continued economic growth, and it has oritizes human needs and inequality is drastically
been shown that positive social outcomes can occur reduced. In contrast to SSP1, this proposed scen-
without growth (Hickel et al 2021); but this subject ario could include greater convergence of per-capita
may be controversial. GDP, meat consumption, and energy use through-
The SSP1-1.9 scenario also depicts an increase out the world (Hickel et al 2021). This would ensure
in both the area of croplands and corresponding that for both the global north and south, energy
increase in nitrous oxide emissions (figures 1(e) and resource consumption moves toward equal per
and (h)). Croplands are predicted to expand by at capita levels, thus promoting socio-economic justice,
least ∼2.2 million km2 by 2100 under this scen- universal human well-being, and the preservation
ario. Any expansion of cropland will come at a great of ecological capital (figure 1 (l); Millward-Hopkins
cost to the environment and biodiversity, as it often and Oswald 2023). By prioritizing large-scale societal

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Environ. Res. Lett. 19 (2024) 021001 W J Ripple et al

Table 1. Important causal relationships in the restorative pathway. Table rows describe how sets of key variables in the restorative
pathway are generally consistent with each other and the scientific literature. ‘Projected changes’ indicate changes in the key variables
outlined for this scenario. ‘Contributing factors in the Restorative Pathway’ describes changes in other variables that are consistent with
the projected change as described in the ‘evidence for cross-factor consistency’ column. The list is not intended to be exhaustive, and
many other factors likely affect the projected changes. Note that references may not fully cover all associated relationships. See
supplementary discussion for details and additional limitations.

Contributing factors in the restorative Evidence for cross-factor

pathway Projected changes consistency

Equitable economic policies that Per capita GDP stabilizes over Reducing consumption by the
address overconsumption and support time (figure 1(c)) wealthy can have a substantial
convergence in resource use impact on GDP trends (Hickel
(figure 1(l)) et al 2021)
Equality and better education for girls Fertility rates and human Better education for girls and
and women population size decrease young women along with other
(figure 1(b)) rights-based policies could
reduce population growth rates
(Dodson et al 2020)
Human population size decreases Fossil fuel emissions Reductions in demands for
(figure 1(b)), per capita GDP stabilizes (figure 1(a)), croplands resources can in turn reduce
over time (figure 1(c)), plant-based (figure 1(e)), meat production fossil fuel emissions and land
diets become more prevalent (figure S1), and livestock grazing area required for human
land (figure 1(d)) decrease; activities (Dodson et al 2020,
forestlands (figure 1(f)) increase Ripple et al 2022)
Fossil fuel emissions (figure 1(a)), Carbon dioxide (figure 1(g)), Reducing fossil fuel emissions,
livestock grazing land (figure 1(d)), methane (figure 1(h)), and more efficient land use, and
croplands (figure 1(e)), and meat nitrous oxide (figure 1(i)) nature conservation can reduce
production decrease (figure S1); concentrations decrease greenhouse gas concentrations
forestlands increase; farming practices (Van Vuuren et al 2017, Nisbet
improve et al 2021)
Carbon dioxide (figure 1(g)), methane Global mean temperature Reducing greenhouse gas
(figure 1(h)), and nitrous oxide decreases (figure 1(j)) concentrations can reduce the
(figure 1(i)) concentration decrease rate of global warming (Steffen
et al 2015, Ripple et al 2022)
Forestlands increase (figure 1(f)), Vertebrate species abundance Biodiversity can benefit from a
livestock grazing lands (figure 1(d)), increases (figure 1(k)) wide range of anthropogenic
meat production (figure S1), and actions (Leclère et al 2020,
croplands (figure 1(e)) decrease, Kuhnhenn et al 2020)
human population size decreases
(figure 1(b)), per capita GDP growth
slows (figure 1(c)), temperature
decreases (figure 1(j))

change, the proposed pathway could limit warming modeling assessment to rigorously assess the plaus-
much more effectively than pathways that support ibility and internal consistency of the stylized pro-
growing consumption in wealthy nations (Kuhnhenn jections for individual variables (figures 1 and S1)
et al 2020). The pathway would also feature the use of and produce plausible and realistic modeled estim-
more efficient farming practices to reduce greenhouse ates. Such an assessment could help quantify how the
gas emissions (table 1). restorative pathway and SSP1 differ in key dimen-
The internal consistency of scenario model results sions, including GDP, cropland area, forestland area,
can be assessed by determining whether projections and nitrous oxide emissions.
and relationships between projections agree with
existing theories, data, or empirical analysis (Jiang 5. Final words
2014). The restorative pathway appears to be intern-
ally consistent based on simple qualitative checks of To effectively address climate change, it is essential
the general relationships between projections (table 1; for governments to take holistic action that prior-
see supplemental discussion). Thus, the restorative itizes equity and social justice. However, the situ-
pathway proposal could potentially serve as an inter- ation presents a challenge as the current viewpoint
mediate step toward the rigorous formulation and is rooted in continued growth, which limits consid-
simulation of a holistic climate mitigation scenario. eration of different perspectives, including those of
An important next step would be to conduct a joint diverse and vulnerable poplations. The climate crisis

4
Environ. Res. Lett. 19 (2024) 021001 W J Ripple et al

requires immediate action, but a long-term perspect- communities, but also make incremental long-term
ive is also important given the magnitude of the changes for humanity and other life on Earth.
necessary changes and the ultimate goal of cooling
our planet back down to a safe level.
Data availability statement
As the world grapples with the urgent need to
address the climate crisis, it is crucial for research-
All data that support the findings of this study are
ers to combine ecological, social, and climate domains
included within the article (and any supplementary
in future scenarios, so that the cross-linkages become
files).
apparent. While technology no doubt represents a
critical part of the solution, its potentially unlimited
and extensive use could create new problems given Acknowledgment
that the planet’s resources are finite and already under
tremendous strain. Ecological overshoot or the over- We thank David Johns for reviewing a draft of
exploitation of the Earth is the cause of multiple the paper and providing helpful comments. Roger
environmental and social crises, and policies should Worthington provided partial funding for this
focus on addressing this issue rather than simply project.
treating the symptoms. As human demand contin-
ues to exceed planetary boundaries and the regen-
ORCID iDs
erative capacity of nature, we are at increased risk
from not only climate change, but a confluence of
Christopher Wolf  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-
crises, including biodiversity loss, species extinctions,
5519-3845
freshwater shortage, food scarcity, civil unrest, inter-
Manfred Lenzen  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-
national wars, pollution, and zoonotic diseases and
0828-5288
more pandemics (Guterres 2023, Rockström et al
2023). Mitigating overexploitation and these crises
will require global cooperation to address inequality References
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