Journal of Environmental Management: Philip H. Brown, Desiree Tullos, Bryan Tilt, Darrin Magee, Aaron T. Wolf

Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S303–S311
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of Environmental Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman
Modeling the costs and benefits of dam construction from a multidisciplinary

perspective
Philip H. Brown a, *, Desiree Tullos b, Bryan Tilt c, Darrin Magee d, Aaron T. Wolf e
a
Department of Economics, Colby College, 5246 Mayflower Hill, Waterville, ME 04901, United States
b
Department of Biological & Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
c
Department of Anthropology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
d
Department of Environmental Studies, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY 14456, United States
e
Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: Although the benefits of dam construction are numerous, particularly in the context of climate change
Received 15 September 2007 and growing global demand for electricity, recent experience has shown that many dams have serious
Received in revised form 3 March 2008 negative environmental, human, and political consequences. Despite an extensive literature doc-
Accepted 30 July 2008
umenting the benefits and costs of dams from a single disciplinary perspective, few studies have
Available online 7 November 2008
simultaneously evaluated the distribution of biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical implications
of dams. To meet the simultaneous demands for water, energy, and environmental protection well into
Keywords:
the future, a broader view of dams is needed. We thus propose a new tool for evaluating the relative costs
Dam construction
Dam removal and benefits of dam construction based on multi-objective planning techniques.
Program evaluation The Integrative Dam Assessment Modeling (IDAM) tool is designed to integrate biophysical, socio-
economic, and geopolitical perspectives into a single cost/benefit analysis of dam construction. Each of
27 different impacts of dam construction is evaluated both objectively (e.g., flood protection, as
measured by RYI years) and subjectively (i.e., the valuation of said flood protection) by a team of deci-
sion-makers. By providing a visual representation of the various costs and benefits associated with two
or more dams, the IDAM tool allows decision-makers to evaluate alternatives and to articulate priorities
associated with a dam project, making the decision process about dams more informed and more
transparent. For all of these reasons, we believe that the IDAM tool represents an important evolutionary
step in dam evaluation.
Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction Environmental Protection Act of 1969, the Endangered Species Act

of 1973, and the burgeoning national debt have led to a decrease in
Dams have contributed to human development by providing the number of new dams, the next generation may witness
reliable sources of drinking water and irrigation, hydropower, a renewed intensity in large dam development in the U.S. More-
recreation, navigation, income, and other important benefits over, new dams continue to be planned and constructed in many
(World Commission on Dams (WCD), 2000). Further, in the pres- developing countries.
ence of climate change, dams may play an increasingly important The checkered history of large dams offers considerable insight
role in protecting water resources. For example, areas affected by into the risks associated with renewed interest in dam construc-
severe drought and those subject to high vulnerability from tion. For example, the adverse effects of dams on ecosystems,
flooding due to heavy precipitation will likely increase in coming hydrology, and water quality (e.g., Petts, 1984; Poff et al., 1997; Poff
decades (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007), the and Hart, 2002; Ward and Stanford, 1979) often disrupt existing
negative consequences of which may be ameliorated by dams. cultural and economic institutions (Cernea, 1999; Goldsmith and
Similarly, increased melting of snow packs resulting from climate Hildyard, 1986) and impact relationships between the dam
change may lead to renewed interest in dams as a means of pro- community and communities both up- and downstream, which
tecting drinking water supplies. Thus, although the National may include people in other political jurisdictions (Giordano et al.,
2005). Dams also have displaced up to 80 million people worldwide
(WCD, 2000), resulting in increased landlessness and unemploy-
* Corresponding author. ment as well as social disarticulation (Cernea, 1999). Risks associ-
E-mail address: [email protected] (P.H. Brown). ated with large dams also go beyond the immediate ecological and
0301-4797/$ – see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.07.025
S304 P.H. Brown et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S303–S311
social impacts; for example, 46 large dams catastrophically failed provide context for the use of the tool by discussing its generaliz-
between 1860 and 1995, eight of which resulted in the deaths of at ability to different settings. We then compare the IDAM tool with
least 1000 people (McCully, 2001). other interdisciplinary approaches, commenting on the advantages
Analogously, concerns regarding the safety and passage barrier and disadvantages of each, and we conclude by reflecting on the
presented by older dams and culverts have contributed to a surge in practical applications of the tool.
dam removal (Doyle et al., 2008; Hart et al., 2002) despite the
outstanding uncertainties regarding this emerging practices (Doyle 2. The integrative dam assessment modeling tool
et al., 2003; Pizzuto, 2002; Riggsbee et al., 2007; Walter and Mer-
ritts, 2008). Similarly, dam removal may have negative conse- The Integrative Dam Assessment Modeling (IDAM) tool is
quences for electricity generation, tax revenues, recreation designed to combine the three themes identified by the 1992
opportunities, and housing values (Acharya and Lewis, 2001; United Nations Conference on Environment and Development into
Bohlen et al., 2007; Wyrick et al., 2009). Dam removal also has two circle diagrams, one measuring the costs associated with
political implications as disparate constituencies organize in proposed dam development and the other measuring the benefits.
support of or opposition to dam removal (Graf, 2003). Finally, as in Each of the two diagrams consists of 27 individual ‘‘impacts,’’ or
dam construction scenarios, decisions about dam removal are often effects of dam construction, nine of which represent the biophysical
made under asymmetric information (Born et al., 1998), leading to theme, nine of which represent the socio-economic theme, and
dissention in affected communities. nine of which represent the geopolitical theme (Fig. 1). The same
The 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and impacts appear on both the cost and benefit circles, and each
Development identified biophysics, socio-economics, and geopoli- impact comprises an equal portion (131⁄3 ) of the circle diagram.
tics as the primary areas of concern for environmental and social The impacts included in the model were informed by an
sustainability in development (United Nations Committee on extensive review of the existing literature, including evaluations of
Economic Development, 1993). As noted above, the impact of dam environmental effects (e.g., Bunn and Arthington, 2002; Goldsmith
construction may be felt across each of these areas (Bocking, 1998). and Hildyard, 1986; McAllister et al., 2000; Rosenberg et al., 2000;
For example, relocation efforts associated with dam building often WCD, 2000), social effects (e.g., Bartolome et al., 2000; Égré and
lead to higher population densities and thus to greater struggles Senécal, 2003; Lerer and Scudder, 1999; Sadler et al., 2000; Scudder,
over land access (Webber and McDonald, 2004). Similarly, higher 1997), and the geopolitics (e.g., Bakker, 1999; McCully, 2001;
levels of siltation and evapotranspiration associated with new dam Ribeiro, 1994; Scudder, 2005; Waterbury, 1979) of large dams.
construction (Phadke, 1999) may exacerbate water and land Groups of experts with experience in evaluating dam impacts
conflicts among affected river populations (WCD, 2000). (including the authors) then gathered for semi-structured discus-
The renewed interest in large dams and the uncertainty sions on the specific indicators to be included using the Delphi
surrounding dam removal provide opportunities for improved Technique (Gordon and Helmer, 1964).1 This method enables
understanding of the interaction between environmental and interdisciplinary dialog to develop consensus on the key compo-
social systems. However, despite an extensive literature doc- nents for analysis and provides process techniques to resolve
umenting the benefits and costs of dams, few studies have differences as they arise.2 The biophysical impacts identified
systematically evaluated the effects of dams from multiple disci- through this process are water retention time; natural value;
plinary perspectives (Whitelaw and MacMullan, 2002, but see downstream tributaries; biodiversity’ distance of river left dry
WCD, 2000), and important synergistic relationships between downstream of the dam; CO2 equivalent to coal; flood protection;
biophysics, socio-economics, and geopolitics are not well under- site stability; and reservoir surface (see Table 1 for more detail). The
stood as a result. In this paper, we develop an interdisciplinary socio-economic impacts of primary concern are social change;
approach to evaluate dams in affected communities. Specifically, cultural change; non-agricultural economic activity; health; agri-
we propose a new Integrative Dam Assessment Modeling (IDAM) cultural economic activity; displacement; hydropower and infra-
tool for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of dam structure; housing values; and transportation (see Table 2 for more
construction while accounting for biophysical, socio-economic, and detail). The geopolitical indicators include downstream riparian
geopolitical effects. population; downstream irrigation; political boundaries; existing
The conceptual foundation for this tool is based on existing dams; agreements and institutions; political participation; histor-
approaches in multi-objective planning, including amoeba ical stability/tensions; domestic governance; and socio-economic
diagrams (ten Brink, 1991; Wall and Marzall, 2006), radar charts impacts for non-constituents (see Table 3 for more detail).
(Connell and Wall, 2004), sustainability polygons (Steiner et al., Within the context of the IDAM tool, each of these 27 impacts
2000), and wellness appraisal index graphs (Dever, 1991) for includes both an objective evaluation of the magnitude of the effect
illustrating environmental, economic, and human health assess- of dam construction (called a ‘‘metric’’) and a subjective evaluation
ments (Sadler et al., 2000). By further developing these concepts to of its biophysical, socio-economic, or geopolitical effect (called
incorporate analysis of costs and benefits and by adapting the a ‘‘valuation’’). That is, each impact is broken into five sub-sections
indicators to the context of dam building, we have developed this (each representing 22⁄3 of the circle) that classify the objective
tool as a unique and potentially valuable instrument for informing magnitude of the effect on a six-point scale (Likert, 1932), ranging
dam siting and design, increasing the transparency of decision- from 0 for ‘‘no impact’’ to 5 for ‘‘extreme impact’’; Table 4 provides
making, encouraging public participation in the process, and doc- three detailed examples. These categories are normalized so the
umenting the process for selecting among various sites and designs model may be used in evaluating the costs and benefits of small
in dam development. dams such as those in New Jersey (Wyrick et al., 2009) and
In this paper, we introduce the IDAM tool, a conceptual model
that explicitly calls for a variety of disciplinary perspectives in
evaluating the positive and negative implications of dam 1
These discussions were held as part of the International Symposium on the
construction and removal. This tool also overtly acknowledges both Modeling of Dams in Washington on April 11–13th, 2007 and the symposium on
Damming the Nu: Evaluating Hydropower on China’s Angry River in Maine on
objective and subjective valuations for a transparent consensus-
October 6–7, 2007.
building evaluation of dams. After explaining the mechanics of the 2
Linstone and Turoff (1975) and Rowe and Wright (1999) provide thorough
tool, we offer an illustrative example of how two alterative dam summaries of the strengths and weaknesses of the Delphi Technique and Meedham
construction projects would be evaluated using this tool. Next, we and de Loë (1990) describe its applicability to water resources planning.
P.H. Brown et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S303–S311 S305
Fig. 1. IDAM tool. The sum of the shaded area for a completed IDAM characterizes the aggregated costs and benefits. The proportion of the costs and benefits is displayed on the
scale below. The scale runs from 0 to 100 on both the costs and benefits.
Maine (Bohlen and Lewis, 2009) as well as massive hydropower 3. Illustrative example – low vs. high-impact dams
development projects such as those in China (McNally et al., 2009;
Tullos, 2009), Lesotho (Tilt et al., 2009), and the American West In what follows, we offer two hypothetical examples of how
(Burke et al., 2009). Given this objective impact of a proposed dam, dam construction projects may be evaluated using the IDAM tool,
decision-makers are asked to evaluate the benefits and costs one for a relatively high-impact dam site and one for a low-impact
associated with the objective impact of proposed dams on the dam site.
following scale: ‘‘none,’’ ‘‘very small,’’ ‘‘small,’’ ‘‘moderate,’’ ‘‘large,’’
or ‘‘very large.’’3
Table 1
The objective metric of the costs and benefits of dam
Biophysical impacts.
construction is measured along the circumference of the IDAM
circle and the subjective valuation of this outcome is measured Label Impact Description Metric
along the radius. Given these data, the IDAM figure is shaded to BP1 Water retention time Time water is stored in Time
provide a visual comparison of the magnitude of the effects and the reservoir as indicator of
ecological impact
decision-makers’ valuation thereof (see Fig. 2 for a detailed account BP2 Natural value Potential gain or loss UNESCO ‘‘natural’’
of this process for a single indicator, and note that an impact associated with dam selection criteria
without shading does not imply a lack of data, but rather no activity
objective impact, no subjective cost or benefit, or both). The IDAM BP3 Downstream tributaries Number of tributaries for Number
supplying sediment and
tool thus provides an opportunity for heuristic decision-making.4
organic material, buffering
In an ideal setting, the decision-making team will include hydrology, and providing
experts who are trained to assess the impacts of dams through the habitat
various disciplinary frameworks as well as stakeholders with local BP4 Biodiversity Threatened/endangered % of known species
knowledge and experience. We anticipate that this process will plants and animals that are threatened
or endangered
involve negotiation and consensus-building through a process BP5 Distance of river left In scenarios where flow is Length
similar to the Delphi Technique, thereby improving the trans- dry downstream of dam diverted for irrigation
parency of the decision-making process. BP6 CO2 equivalent to coal Benefit of producing Pounds per MW
hydropower as opposed
to coal as alternative
energy source
BP7 Flood protection The magnitude of flooding RYI year
3 event captured by the
It is important to acknowledge that while some effects of dam construction on
dam in Return Year
human and natural systems can be felt immediately, others are dynamic and
Interval (RYI)
cumulative, becoming apparent over many years. Decision-makers should thus
BP8 Site stability Presence of geologic None to very large
keep the ‘‘life cycle’’ of a given dam project in mind when assigning objective
hazards, e.g. landslides,
metrics and subjective valuations (Sadler et al., 2000).
4 site stability, distance
As currently implemented, the IDAM tool assigns an equal area of the decision
to faults, and reservoir-
circle to each impact. We believe that such an approach accommodates weighting
induced seismicity
through the subjective valuation of each impact, although it may nevertheless be
BP9 Reservoir surface Surface area of reservoir Area
worth experimenting with a model which allows for a more flexibility in weighting
at full storage
impacts.
Table 2 Subtracting the total cost (Panel B) from the total benefit (Panel A)
Socio-economic impacts. in the IDAM tool indicates a net cost of 10 units as follows: net cost
Label Impact Description Metric of 58 units to biophysical impacts; net benefit of 23 units to socio-
SE1 Social cohesion Change in social networks and perceived Buckner economic indicators; and net benefit of 25 units to geopolitical
social cohesion scale indicators. This outcome is compared to the net benefit (or cost) of
SE2 Cultural change Sites of cultural significance Number a low-impact dam built on a tributary of the dam below.
SE3 Non-agricultural Aggregate change in total income, less Dollars
economic activity government transfers
SE4 Health Frequency and severity of contamination Days per 3.2. Low-impact dam site
year
SE5 Agricultural Aggregate change in total income, less Dollars This hypothetical new dam site is located on a steeper tributary
economic activity government transfers
to the main stem river proposed above, with similar objectives of
SE6 Displacement Relocation costs associated with changing Dollars
water levels developing irrigation resources and producing hydropower. This
SE7 Hydropower/ Value of hydropower consumed locally or Dollars structure would be narrower (120 m) and taller (47 m) than the
infrastructure sold dam on the main stem of the river, with a small, but deep reservoir
SE8 Housing values Hedonic value of recreation and landscape Dollars
with 23 km2 in surface area. The low surface area of the reservoir
SE9 Transportation Value of change in economic activity Dollars
blocks only 21 km of spawning habitat for two ESA-listed salmon.
This facility generates a similar amount of electricity (23 MW per
3.1. High-impact dam site year), but the electricity will need to be transmitted farther to the
transfer facility. Furthermore, the structure will only store enough
This hypothetical new dam site is located on the main stem of water for irrigating only 423 ha of farmland for corn production.
a large river in the Unites States, with the primary objective of There are numerous downstream tributaries that regularly supply
providing a reliable source of irrigation water and a secondary sediment and runoff to the main stem. However, because all of the
objective of producing hydropower. It is a wide (820 m) and rela- flow is diverted, the river will be left dry most years 6 km down to
tively short (21 m) structure, blocking passage for three species of the next tributary. By storing and diverting all of the flood water in
endangered salmon as listed under the Endangered Species Act this river, this facility offers the benefit of downstream flood
(ESA) to an 88 km spawning habitat and leaving 18 km dry protection. The value of this protection is quite limited, however,
downstream during very dry years. because the habitat between the dam and the main stem is
Because of the generally low slope of the river valley, the industrial forest that was harvested just prior to construction. As
reservoir will have a high surface area and will inundate two Native such, no communities will be displaced and no cultural or
American reservation communities comprising nearly 1000 people anthropological artifacts will be inundated.
in total. Archaeological digs have recently discovered artifacts of The benefits and costs of this low-impact dam are described in
a community dating back to 2200 years within the inundated area, the IDAM circles presented in Fig. 4. Subtracting the total cost
and sites of spiritual importance will be submerged. The residents (Panel B) from the total benefit (Panel A) in the IDAM tool indicates
of the affected communities will be relocated outside of the valley a net benefit of 10 units as follows: net cost of 24 units to
to a reservation in the dry grassland 200 km away. Water is not biophysical impacts; net benefit of 19 units to socio-economic
immediately accessible at the relocation site, but the U.S. govern- indicators; and net benefit of 15 units to geopolitical indicators.
ment has agreed to dig wells for the displaced communities. Although the benefits of dam building at the high-impact site are
However, no agreements have yet been signed between the significantly larger than the benefits of building at the low-impact
communities and the federal government because the residents are site, the costs of dam building are also disproportionately larger in
concerned that the wells will be insufficient to meet their water the former case. Indeed, the IDAM tool indicates that the net benefit
needs. Employment opportunities will exist at the new reservation to dam construction in the tributary of the river outweighs that of
in the form of a newly constructed casino. Educational programs dam construction in the main stem.
will be developed at the new site for the relocated residents.
The benefits and costs of this high-impact dam are described in 4. Applicability and generalizability of the IDAM tool
the IDAM circles presented in Fig. 3. Note that the objective metrics
and subjective valuations have been estimated for this hypothetical WCD (2000) calls for social, environmental, and technical
dam for illustrative purposes (see Table 5 for detail); for a true monitoring and assessment for proposed dam projects. Further, the
IDAM evaluation, a decision-making team must provide the data ‘‘Five Key Decision Points’’ described in the WCD report propose
for metrics and valuations. In addition, recall that an impact that decisions about dams should be rooted in careful discussions of
without shading implies that there is no objective impact and/or needs assessment, selecting alternatives and investigative studies,
that the subjective valuation associated with that impact is zero. project preparation, project implementation, and project operation.
Table 3
Geopolitical impacts.
Label Impact Description Metric

GP1 Downstream riparian population People in downstream communities potentially affected by upstream dams Number
GP2 Downstream irrigation Downstream irrigated area potentially affected by upstream dams Area
GP3 Political boundaries Number of national and sub-national political boundaries crossed by waterway Number
GP4 Existing dams Regulatory/storage capacity of existing dams on waterway Capacity
GP5 Agreements/institutions Number of inter-governmental institutions devoted to management of shared waterway Number
GP6 Political participation Plurality of decision-making processes in country where dam will be sited Democracy index
GP7 Historical stability/tensions Degree of interstate and intra-state stability versus tension among riparian countries Internal Basins at Risk (BAR) Scale
GP8 Domestic governance ‘‘Durability’’ of state government, including its ability to anticipate and, where International Basins at Risk (BAR) Scale
necessary, appropriately respond to domestic challenges
GP9 Socio-economic impacts Estimate of the magnitude of impacts for non-constituents (e.g. downstream Low–high
for non-constituents communities in other riparian countries)
Table 4 articulate priorities associated with a dam project, making the

Example metrics for objective measurement of dam impacts. The objective metrics decision process about dams more informed and transparent. For
associated with each of the 27 indicators in the IDAM tool are evaluated on a 6-point
scale in which 0 indicates no effect and 5 indicates a very large effect. In the interest
all of these reasons, we believe that the IDAM tool represents an
of space, three detailed examples (one each from the biophysical, socio-economic, important evolutionary step in dam evaluation.
and geopolitical perspective) are provided; as noted in the text, these metrics should Thus, the IDAM tool is currently being used to evaluate dam
be adapted to local circumstances. removal in Oregon, where the need to better understand the
BP7: Flood protection, relative to historical record for the same river integrated biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical advan-
0 None tages and disadvantages of dam removal is great (Bowman, 2002).
1 Flood protection for only small storms (1–10 RYI) Specifically, impacts identified in Tables 1–3 were adapted based on
2 Flood protection for modest events (10–25 RYI)
current literature of dam removal (e.g., Graf, 2003), replacing
3 Flood protection for large but regular events (25–100 RYI)
4 Flood protection for large and irregular events (100–1000 RYI) contextually inappropriate impacts (e.g., ‘‘distance of river left dry
5 Flood protection for events >1000 RYI downstream of dam’’) with more appropriate alternatives (e.g.,
SE1: Resettlement cost, as a share of watershed GDP
‘‘predicted distance of downstream sediment deposition’’) while
0 No displacement retaining those that remained relevant (e.g., ‘‘biodiversity’’). We
1 Less than 0.5% of total watershed GDP then solicited feedback on the proposed impacts during facilitated
2 0.5–1.5% of total watershed GDP meetings with stakeholders, including representatives of federal
3 1.5–3.0% of total watershed GDP
agencies, experts on environmental monitoring, and local land-
4 3.0–5.0% of total watershed GDP
5 Greater than 5.0% of total watershed GDP owners. We are now applying the IDAM tool to document and
analyze decision-making and environmental outcomes associated
GP4: Capacity of existing dams to regulate annual flow
with two economically, politically, and environmentally dissimilar
0 No existing dams on the main trunk of the river
1 Existing dams have capacity to regulate <10% of mean annual flow small dam removals. The results will include an evaluation of the
2 Existing dams have capacity to regulate <20% of mean annual flow indicators for use in decision-making about dam removals beyond
3 Existing dams have capacity to regulate <30% of mean annual flow these two case studies.
4 Existing dams have capacity to regulate <40% of mean annual flow
5 Existing dams have capacity to regulate >40% of mean annual flow
5. Other interdisciplinary approaches to modeling dams
The proposed IDAM tool may therefore be useful in operationaliz- Other approaches exist for performing interdisciplinary assess-
ing these recommendations, offering a systematic and transparent ments on ‘‘coupled human–environment systems’’ (Global Land
approach for evaluating dam siting to meet the development and Project, 2005; Turner et al., 2003). For example, economic
sustainability needs of affected communities. approaches such as hedonic analysis and contingent valuation have
The IDAM tool is comprehensive in its evaluation of dam been used to value the impact of dam construction and removal on
construction from multiple disciplinary perspectives. Moreover, water quality and fish biodiversity (e.g., Bohlen and Lewis, 2009).
because simple steps may be taken to adapt the model to local Similarly, micro- and macroeconomic factors have been included in
conditions (such as adjusting or changing specific indicators biophysical simulation models (e.g., Benstead et al., 1999; Costanza
included the tool) and because it explicitly incorporates both and Ruth, 1998; Haberl et al., 2006; Simonovic and Fahmy, 1999).
objective metrics and subjective valuations of dam impacts, the tool However, using economics to value socio-cultural and ecological
is extremely flexible. By providing a visual representation of the indicators is a source of debate due to difficulties in accounting for
various costs and benefits associated with two or more dams, the variability in interpretation and positions on metrics and values
tool also allows decision-makers to evaluate alternatives and to (McCauley, 2006; Sullivan, 2001).
Fig. 2. Sample evaluation of the benefits of flood protection. Experts characterize the benefits of dam construction according to an objective metric. In the case of flood protection,
this metric describes protection relative to the historical record for the same river. Decision-makers assign a subjective valuation to these quantified benefits based on a scale
ranging from ‘‘none’’ to ‘‘very high.’’ The IDAM figure is then shaded in order to provide a visual representation of both the objective metric and the subjective valuation.
Fig. 3. Illustrative example, high-impact dam. A dam on the main stem of a large river would block passage for salmon and sometimes leave downstream reaches dry. However, it
would also produce a modest amount of electricity and irrigate and for corn production. The reservoir would displace 1000 Native Americans, and compensation is still under
negotiation. Although important heritage sites would be lost, economic opportunities exist at the relocation site. See Table 5 for objective metrics and subjective valuations of these
impacts.
Table 5
Illustrative example: high- versus low-impact dams. A decision-making team comprised of experts and stakeholders will participate in a consensus-building process such as
the Delphi Technique to identify and evaluate the objective and subjective costs and benefits of dam construction at different sites. Based on the information provided in the
illustrative example, a decision-making team might arrive at the following objective metrics and subjective valuations. These values were used in constructing Figs. 3 and 4.
Key Impact High-impact dams Low-impact dam
Benefits Costs Benefits Costs
Obj. metric Subj. valuation Obj. metric Subj. valuation Obj. metric Subj. valuation Obj. metric Subj. valuation
Biophysical (BP) impacts
BP1 Water retention 0 0 4 4 0 0 2 4
BP2 Natural value 0 0 4 5 0 0 3 5
BP3 Downstream tributaries 0 4 3 0 3 4 0 0
BP4 Species of concern 0 0 2 5 0 0 1 5
BP5 Dry river 0 0 2 3 0 0 3 3
BP6 CO2 equivalent to coal 3 2 0 0 2 2 0 0
BP7 Flood protection 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
BP8 Site stability 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BP9 Reservoir surface 0 0 4 3 0 0 1 3
Socio-economic (SE) impacts

SE1 Social cohesion 0 2 4 3 0 2 0 3
SE2 Cultural change 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 1
SE3 Non-agr. economic activity 3 4 4 0 0 4 0 0
SE4 Health 5 0 0 4 3 0 0 4
SE5 Ag. economic activity 5 5 0 0 3 5 0 0
SE6 Displacement 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
SE7 Hydropower/infrastructure 3 4 0 5 1 4 0 5
SE8 Housing values 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
SE9 Transportation 0 3 5 2 0 3 0 2
Geopolitical (GP) impacts

GP1 Downstream riparian pop. 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0
GP2 Downstream irrigation 5 5 0 0 3 5 0 0
GP3 Political boundaries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GP4 Existing dams 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 0
GP5 Agreements/institutions 1 5 4 0 0 5 0 0
GP6 Political participation 1 3 3 0 0 3 0 0
GP7 Historical stability/tensions 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 2
GP8 Domestic governance 0 1 4 0 0 1 0 0
GP9 Socio-economic impacts for non-constituents 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 1
Fig. 4. Illustrative example, low-impact dam. This dam is taller and narrower than the high-impact dam, yet it blocks less spawning habitat for salmon and no communities would
be displaced by its construction. This dam would provide some flood protection, but only to industrial forest land. The small amount of electricity generated from this facility would
be transported farther away, and the dam would irrigate far less land. See Table 5 for objective metrics and subjective valuations of these impacts.
In another approach, Haberl et al. (2006) propose the use of economic, and geopolitical implications of dams. We believe that
social–ecological metabolism measures drawn from the ecological identifying data needs in this way will help decision-makers to
economics, industrial ecology, and human ecology literatures to produce comprehensive and empirically valid policy decisions.
integrate biophysical and socio-economic processes through Second, it combines both objective measurements and subjective
a common currency (e.g., carbon and water). Such analyses valuations of dam building into a single model. Third, neither the
combine field data with statistical social data and use historical model nor the authors of this study arbitrarily assign subjective
sources to reconstruct past states of the system, thereby contrib- weights to the various impacts; instead, the importance of each
uting to socio-ecological models that integrate economic and impact is left up to the decision team. We feel this is a vital
ecological dynamics (Ayres, 2001; Ibernholt, 2002) in river systems component in the development and functioning of this model, and
such as the Hudson (Ayres and Ayres, 1988; Ayres and Tarr, 1990) one that increases its applicability across different socio-cultural
and the Rhine (Stigliani et al., 1993). However, this approach is and geographic contexts. Fourth, this work benefits from and
limited in that it requires a rigid spatial scale over which systems contributes to the perspectives of individual disciplines. Similar to
are compared, which is difficult to define for socio-economic agent-based models, this approach does not require disciplines to
systems (Liverman and National Research Council (U.S.) Committee conform to a single framework for assessing impacts, but it does
on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, 1998). integrate the various disciplinary perspectives into a single model.
Finally, agent-based models have also been used to study Finally, the IDAM tool is visually accessible: costs and benefits of the
complex social and environmental systems by attempting to proposed project are clearly shown in figures, and conclusions
replicate the behavior of individuals and groups. The complex regarding dam impacts can be easily drawn by comparing the
dynamics within and between biophysical and human systems are shaded area of the two circles.
linked in such models as each disciplinary perspective is treated as One disadvantage of the IDAM tool is the considerable up-front
an agent that interacts with other agents. One advantage of agent- data requirements for the objective assessments of dam impacts.
based models over other types of interdisciplinary models is that Still, any thorough evaluation of dams (e.g., environmental and
they are based on the underlying framework of each discipline, social impact assessments) is based on nearly identical information,
rather than trying to meld disciplines under a single framework and yet the IDAM tool makes the data needs clear at the outset. A
set of assumptions (McConnell et al., 2001). Moreover, by sepa- second potential limitation of the tool is that the 27 individual
rating policy questions from data, agent-based modeling increases impacts may not be appropriate to every setting; although we have
the transparency of decision-making in water resources planning endeavored to make these categories widely applicable, we expect
(Simonovic and Fahmy, 1999). However, agent-based models are that some decision-makers may find utility in adapting them to the
limited by the requirement to develop deterministic rules by which local context. Third, the value of the IDAM tool depends on
agents drive system change. Furthermore, agent-based models a balanced treatment of each disciplinary perspective: if natural
assume that agents have decision-making autonomy, and this scientists or environmentalists comprise a disproportionate share
assumption may not be appropriate for large-scale public works of the decision-making team, for example, the socio-economic and
projects such as dams. geopolitical costs and benefits of dams may be undervalued,
In light of the availability and limitations of these tools, the leading to biased evaluations. Finally, the tool requires consensus-
IDAM tool offers at least five distinct advantages. First, and perhaps building among interested constituencies. Again, we view this as an
most importantly, the tool renders explicitly the need for decision- advantage of the model, although some decision-makers may
makers to simultaneously consider the biophysical, socio- disagree.
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www.water-alternatives.org Volume 3 | Issue 2
Tullos, D.; Brown, P.H.; Kibler, K.; Magee, D.; Tilt, B. and
Wolf, A.T. 2010. Perspectives on the salience and magnitude
of dam impacts for hydro development scenarios in China.
Water Alternatives 3(2): 71-90
Perspectives on the Salience and Magnitude of Dam Impacts for

Hydro Development Scenarios in China
Desiree Tullos
Assistant Professor, Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, US;
[email protected]
Philip H. Brown
Associate Professor of Economics, Colby College, Waterville, ME, US; [email protected]
Kelly Kibler
PhD student, Water Resources Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, US; [email protected]
Darrin Magee
Assistant Professor, Environmental Studies, Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY, US; [email protected]
Bryan Tilt
Assistant Professor, Department of Anthropology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, US;
[email protected]
Aaron T. Wolf
Professor of Geography and Chair, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, US;
[email protected]
ABSTRACT: Following the principles and priorities outlined by the World Commission on Dams, managers are
increasingly considering a greater variety of impacts in their decision making regarding dams. However, many
challenges remain in evaluating the biophysical, socioeconomic and geopolitical impacts of dams, including the
potential diversity of stakeholder perspectives on dam impacts.
In this analysis, we surveyed representatives of non-governmental organisations, academics and hydropower and
government officials in Yunnan Province, China, to better understand how stakeholder group views on the size
(magnitude) and importance (salience) of dam impacts vary. We applied the technique defined by the
Interdisciplinary Dam Assessment Model (IDAM) to simulate three dam development scenarios: dams in general,
a single large dam and multiple small dams. We then surveyed the experts to measure their views on the
magnitude and salience of 21 biophysical, geopolitical and socioeconomic impacts for the three scenarios.
Survey results indicate differences in the perceived salience and magnitude of impacts across both expert groups
and dam scenarios. Furthermore, surveys indicate that stakeholder perceptions changed as the information
provided regarding dam impacts became more specific, suggesting that stakeholder evaluation may be influenced
by quality of information. Finally, qualitative comments from the survey reflect some of the challenges of
interdisciplinary dam assessment, including cross-disciplinary cooperation, data standardisation and weighting,
and the distribution and potential mitigation of impacts. Given the complexity of data and perceptions around
dam impacts, decision-support tools that integrate the objective magnitude and perceived salience of impacts are
required urgently.
KEYWORDS: Hydropower impacts, salience, decision making, stakeholders, World Commission on Dams, China
Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 71

Water Alternatives - 2010 Volume 3 | Issue 2
INTRODUCTION
Though hydropower development provides many known benefits, negative impacts are often
distributed across social and environmental systems (WCD, 2000; Scudder, 2005). In addition, perceived
costs and benefits are likely to vary among stakeholder groups (Ünver, 2008) linked to the river and
affected by the project in an assortment of ways.
In 2000, the World Commission on Dams (WCD) reported the need for more equitable,
interdisciplinary and sustainable decision making with respect to large dams, and that new models of
decision making must involve key stakeholders throughout the process. Much subsequent research has
also advocated for improving decision-making processes (McCully, 2001; Mokorosi and van der Zaag,
2007; Koch, 2002; Dingwerth, 2005). However, important challenges in implementation remain
unresolved. Chief among these is how best to carry out equitable and sustainable decision making in
situations in which information is scarce, or in which there exists strong institutional resistance to WCD
recommendations such as opening assessment procedures to public scrutiny or comment (Dubash et
al., 2002). A number of approaches are under development with the intent of improving governance
and decision making related to water resources development (WCD, 2000; van der Zaag et al., 2009;
Turner et al., 2003; Simonovic and Fahmy, 1999). The Integrative Dam Assessment Modelling (IDAM)
tool (Brown et al., 2009) is one example of a new process that seeks to fulfil the WCD’s
recommendations. Of the seven Strategic Priorities1 for the equitable and sustainable development of
water resources promoted by the WCD, the IDAM tool contributes most directly to facilitating
comprehensive options assessments that equally consider the environmental, technical, social,
economic and financial components of alternative development scenarios.
Interdisciplinary Dam Assessment Model (IDAM)

The goal of the IDAM instrument is to support more informed and transparent decision-making
processes around dam development. Rooted in the three pillars of sustainability (biophysics,
socioeconomics and geopolitics), as proposed at the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and
Development (UN Committee on Economic Development, 1993), IDAM was established to promote the
full and equal consideration of the three pillars in dam decision making. IDAM is distinct in its ability to
simultaneously consider costs and benefits across the three pillars, as opposed to the discrete analyses
(e.g. in social impact assessments, environmental impact assessments, and benefit cost analyses) often
used to appraise dam decisions.
Moreover, the IDAM framework provides transparency for documenting information used in
evaluating dam development alternatives. In addition to enhancing the transparency of the decision-
making process, documentation throughout IDAM evaluation provides testimony as to the quality of
information used to reach a decision.
The IDAM tool is structured as a set of 21 biophysical, socioeconomic and geopolitical impacts of
dam construction (table 1), each of which is measured by independent analysts using an indicator that
reflects the objective magnitude of the impact, which is then classified into one of five bins indicating
the scale of impact. Indicators are intended to be neutral in tone and application; however, it is
foreseeable that in one geographic setting, some indicators may only connote a negative impact, yet in
another setting could also encompass a positive impact.
Next, a diverse group of stakeholders are asked to evaluate the importance of each impact in the
context of its magnitude and geography. Where possible, measures of data quality and variability are
provided so that the participants/stakeholders can weigh salience based on data/information certainty.
In this way, the IDAM tool integrates information forecasting of the extent or severity of dam-related
1
Seven Strategic Priorities (WCD, 2000): Gaining Public Acceptance; Comprehensive Options Assessment; Addressing Existing
Dams; Sustaining Rivers and Livelihoods; Recognizing Entitlements and Sharing Benefits; Ensuring Compliance; and Sharing
Rivers for Peace, Development and Security.

impacts (both positive and negative), henceforth referred to as the magnitude of impact, with
information about the significance that stakeholders assign to an impact of a given magnitude, which
we refer to as the salience of the impact.
Assessing stakeholder perspectives

Assessments of salience are likely to vary across different stakeholder groups in ways that reflect how
dams relate to various groups’ objectives and/or constituencies. As such, salience data may be used to
demonstrate how different groups of stakeholders perceive the consequences of development
alternatives, providing a loose narrative that describes how diverse groups are affected, whether
positively or negatively. As salience is evaluated during the assessment of options, stakeholders are
fundamentally part of the decision-making process, a key strategy identified by the WCD for gaining
public acceptance of a project. Furthermore, through alternatives assessment, the IDAM helps to
articulate where the costs and benefits of a project are believed to accrue. This information feeds
naturally into the WCD-recommended processes of recognising the entitlements of various stakeholder
groups and determining how to best share the benefits of selected projects.
The objective of the analysis presented in this paper is to evaluate how views vary across
stakeholder groups and across dam development scenarios. Specifically, we ask: How do different
stakeholder groups perceive the salience and magnitude of dam projects? How do those views change
across three hypothetical but policy-relevant dam scenarios? Based on the experience of big dam
construction in the US, we anticipate that academics and NGOs will be critical of dam construction or
more cognisant of the multifaceted costs of dam construction. Further, we anticipate a great diversity
of views on the cumulative impacts of small dams due to the limited public awareness of the number
and characteristics of the projects.
VARIABILITY IN STAKEHOLDER PERSPECTIVES: CASE STUDY IN YUNNAN PROVINCE, CHINA

To evaluate the diversity in perspectives around dam impacts, we applied the IDAM framework to
hypothetical dam development scenarios and surveyed dam experts in Yunnan Province, China, as a
case study, evaluating the applicability and utility of assessing stakeholder salience within the IDAM.
Attendees of the International Conference on the Impacts of Dams, held in the Yunnan provincial
capital, Kunming, in July 2009, participated in surveys pertaining to the magnitude and salience of three
potential dam development scenarios. To allow for the most open discussion, fifteen water and hydro
development experts were divided into three private workshop discussions as follows: professionals
representing engineers, public officials and the hydroelectricity industry; representatives of
environmental and civil society non-governmental organisations (NGOs); and members of the academic
community. Classifications were based on the individual attendee’s danwei, or official work unit.
Each workshop included 1) a general introduction to the project; 2) some open discussion about the
impacts of dams and how to gauge them; 3) surveys on the views of dam impacts generally; 4) a
presentation of simulated impacts for two hypothetical dam development scenarios (described below);
and 5) a second survey regarding dam impacts for the presented scenarios. In the surveys, individuals in
each expert group were asked to indicate, on a 5-point scale, their perceived salience of each of the 21
indicators for each of the dam development scenarios. Impacts perceived as being negative were
evaluated on a scale of 0 (no importance) to -4 (maximal importance), while impacts perceived as being
positive were evaluated on a scale of 0 (no importance) to +4 (maximal importance).

Table 1. IDAM impacts and indicators.
Biophysical
Impact name Positive scope of impact Negative scope of impact Indicator
BP1: Water Reservoir may store heavy Reservoir may change the cycling of nutrients and carbon, Change in residence time through
quality metals, pesticides and PCBs, decrease dissolved oxygen and total suspended solids, alter diel reservoir reach.
preventing downstream and seasonal temperature patterns and affect the growth of
contamination. periphyton, which will impact fisheries and water supplies.
BP2: Biodiversity Reservoir may create potential Lotic and terrestrial habitats of rare or endemic species may be Index of habitat quality- habitat
habitat or reduce competition destroyed; migration routes may be interrupted. classification of affected areas,
or predation for rare/endemic species occurrence, changes to
species. hydraulic habitat.
BP3: Impact area Reservoir may create potential Aquatic, riparian and terrestrial habitats for endemic or rare Index of habitat quantity- surface
habitat or reduce competition species may be disturbed or destroyed. area of the reservoir, length of river
or predation for rare/endemic impounded
species.
BP4: Sediment Reservoir may store Reservoir may disrupt natural longitudinal sediment movement; Trap efficiency of dam, percentage of
anthropogenic sources of downstream channel may degrade; downstream grain size basin that contributes sediment to
sediment and decrease turbidity distribution may change; depositional features (bars, islands, the dam.
and sediment aggradation deltas) and channel morphology (width, depth, sinuosity) may
downstream. change. These changes may result in habitat loss, streambank
instability and impacts to water infrastructure.
BP5: Natural flow Dam may reregulate altered Dam may change historic hydrograph – magnitude, duration, Measured as changes to flood
regime flows (if dam is mostly timing, and frequency of high and low flows; may cause frequency and low baseflows when
downstream of a series of downstream degradation/aggradation or changes to channel flow data available; alternately
dams). morphology, migration or spawning cues, substrate conditions, defined as by carryover storage – (0)
condition of riparian vegetation. Because flow is considered the run of river (1) seasonal storage (2)
"master" variable (Poff et al., 1997) in regulating ecosystems, annual storage and (3) multiple year
negative ecological impacts of flow modification are extensive. storage.
BP6: Climate Generation of hydropower may Methane emissions due to decomposing organic material in some Amount of GHG emitted from
change and air reduce emissions of greenhouse reservoirs may offset a portion of GHG saved by hydropower equivalent MW of coal power
quality gases (GHG) and particulates; production. generation, energy density (MW/unit
may improve local air quality. area of reservoir).

BP7: Landscape Reservoir may induce seismicity, while road construction may Weight and depth of reservoir,
stability increase landslide potential. distance to faults, landslide hazard,
grade of slopes, erosivity of soils.
Socioeconomic
SE1: Social capital Dams may facilitate People from one community may be resettled into multiple new Buckner Scale, based on household
transportation across rivers, communities, disrupting social cohesion. surveys, qualitative interviews.
integrating less accessible
portions of communities with
the rest of the community.
SE2: Cultural Dams may instil national pride. Inundation of tombs, religious sites and other areas of cultural Index of impacts on material culture;
change significance; loss of traditional knowledge regarding the ecosystem. knowledge of the local ecosystem;
sense of place from household
surveys and community surveys.
SE3: Local Communities that were once Prices of electricity may rise as the source of power may be further Index of frequency and price from
hydropower isolated or that relied on small away. household surveys and community
access hydro or alternative forms of surveys.
electricity generation may be
connected to the grid.
SE4: Health Water treatment facilities may The prevalence of schistosomiasis and malaria and other water- Index of drinking water quality,
impacts improve the quality of drinking borne diseases may increase as the breeding grounds for hosts water-borne illness, toxicity from
water. increases. household surveys and community
surveys.
SE5: Income Incomes may rise as off-farm Inundation of agricultural land may imply reduced incomes for Income share of watershed average
opportunities working on dam farmers. from household surveys, community
construction arise; government surveys and State Statistical Bureau
transfers. data.

SE6: Wealth The quality of housing and/or Evacuees may deplete resources while re-establishing themselves Housing and land values, as a share
land in resettlement in resettlement communities. of watershed average from
communities may exceed that household surveys, community
in the affected area. surveys, and State Statistical Bureau
data.
SE7: Macro New roads and other forms of Resettlement of displaced peoples may be costly. Index of the cost of resettlement,
impacts infrastructure for dam costs of infrastructure and present
development may have commercial value of hydropower
positive spillovers for tourism produced from community surveys
and other industries; money and State Statistical Bureau data.
spent on dam construction
may dramatically increase local
economic activity; benefit of
flood protection.
Geopolitical
GP1: Basin Dam provides benefits to basin Dam creates costs to basin residents such as loss of cropland, forced Share of basin population affected
population residents such as hydropower, resettlement, damage to fisheries or loss of livelihood. either positively or negatively as a
affected irrigation, navigation, water percentage of entire basin
improvements and employment. population.
GP2: Political Basin-wide management may Basin-wide management may lead to greater tensions among Number and type of boundaries
complexity increase dialog that fosters riparians and reduce efficiencies. crossed.
improved inter-jurisdictional
relations.
GP3: Legal Strong laws help mitigate the Laws and other institutions are weak or non-existent and insufficient Administrative level of highest legal
framework impacts of change; existing basin to mitigate negative impacts or reduce vulnerability. framework governing dam site (e.g.
agreements and associated river international, county-level).
basin organisations help reduce
vulnerability throughout basin.

GP4: Domestic Decision processes are open and Decision processes are closed and obfuscated; governmental Democracy Index.
governance – transparent; governmental management capacity is limited; civil dialogue is
civil society management capacity is robust; limited/constrained.
(Democracy civil dialogue is open and active.
Index)
GP5: Political Cooperation during planning, Lack of cooperation during planning, construction and operation Internal BAR scale.
stability (intra- construction and operation phases phases, or other conflicts related to project, increases tensions in
national) leads to the establishment or relations among relevant internal administrative areas.
strengthening of internal
institutional arrangements, and
promotes improved relations
among relevant administrative
areas.
GP6: Political Cooperation during planning, Lack of cooperation during planning, construction and operation International BAR scale.
stability construction, and operation phases phases, or other conflicts related to project, increases tensions in
(international) leads to the establishment or relations among relevant international administrative areas.
strengthening of institutional
arrangements, and promotes
improved relations among relevant
international administrative areas.
GP7: Impacts Dam construction provides positive Dam construction causes negative impacts for individuals and Index of spatial extent and
on non- impacts for individuals and communities outside the immediate area of the dam. magnitude of impacts based on
constituents communities outside the reports from media, hydropower
immediate area of the dam. companies, government and NGOs.

Because hydropower and other objectives of dam construction can be met in various ways – for
instance, by building large dams across the main stem of a river or multiple smaller dams on tributaries
– the second survey was designed to capture the perceived salience of impacts for many small
hydropower stations relative to one large station. Thus, we were able to not only evaluate differences
in the perceived benefits and costs of dams across stakeholder groups, but also to evaluate how the
perceptions of impacts differ for one large dam relative to the cumulative impacts of many smaller
dams. Finally, the surveys provided an opportunity to investigate the application of the IDAM for
various dam scenarios. The results below derive from an analysis of the survey data collected at this
meeting of experts.
Dam scenarios: Hydropower policy in China

China is a world leader in small and large hydropower projects, and is home to the planet’s largest
hydropower potential at approximately 384 GW. The country has a rich dam building history, with
roughly 20,000 large dams (half the world’s total), a staggering number of smaller dams and numerous
research and design institutes for hydropower development. Depending on factors such as size,
generating capacity or location, a particular project may fall under the jurisdiction of different levels of
government or multiple bureaucracies at the same level. Thus, while large-scale projects requiring
significant capital investment, complex financing, multiple layers of contractors and subcontractors and
long construction periods will likely necessitate national-level oversight throughout the planning,
bidding, construction and operation phases, smaller projects might only require approval at the county,
municipal or province level.
Thus, policies designed to support hydropower development in China are formulated at different
levels and target projects of different scales in order to address a wide array of needs. Here, the 'scale'
of a project refers both to the technical scale of a dam (e.g. its installed capacity or height) and the
reach of its impacts (e.g. how broad an area or large a population will receive irrigation, hydropower or
flood control benefits, or experience fisheries or water quality declines). For example, proposed and
existing large dams on the Lancang and Nu Rivers in south-western China are supported by a number of
national-level policies. Chief among these is the Western Development Campaign (xibu dakaifa),
officially instituted in 2001 and ostensibly designed to help reduce the disparity in levels of
development between interior western provinces and coastal China. Included among the infrastructure
prioritised by the campaign are numerous large-scale electrification projects, including hydroelectric
dams (National Development and Reform Commission, 2009). Similarly, policies such as Send Western
Electricity East (xidian dongsong) and Send Yunnan Electricity to Guangdong (Diandian Yuesong), which
fall under the overall Western Development framework, call specifically for the development of
generation sites in the west, where potential hydroelectric stocks are the greatest yet least developed.
Power generated there can be sent to load centres in the east via long-distance ultra-high-voltage
transmission lines. Other policies include the Rural Electrification Program (nongye dianqihua), in place
in one form or another since the beginning of the reform period in 1979, which promotes smaller and
more local hydropower development. Such policies are articulated by the provincial- and lower-level
offices of central ministries.
Simultaneously, local governments in China also formulate their own economic development
policies, including those regarding hydropower. According to interviews with officials at the Ministry of
Water Resources in Beijing, overseeing local projects is left up to the relevant local authorities in the
geographic and administrative jurisdictions affected. For example, if a particular dam is designed to be
built entirely within one jurisdiction, then the project must be approved only at that level. If, however, a
project involves two jurisdictions of the same bureaucratic rank (e.g. two counties or county-level
municipalities), then the project must be approved by the relevant bureaucracy (-ies) at the next
highest administrative level (in this case, at the municipality or province level). One important
exception to this general rule involves large dams on important (zhuyao) rivers, of which both the

Lancang and Nu are examples given their transprovincial and transnational courses. For these two rivers
and others like them, even though all planning, design and impact studies are supposed to be overseen
by the relevant basin commission (in this case, the Yangtze River Water Resources Commission), final
authority to approve or reject a dam rests with the State Council and the National Development and
Reform Commission (NDRC) (Magee, 2006).
In theory, any dam built in China is subject to a final check by one of the seven basin commissions, in
order to ensure that the dam fits with the comprehensive plans for that particular basin. In practicality,
though, it is not always feasible to provide this kind of careful, multi-layered scrutiny for the thousands
of dams proposed and built on the countless smaller rivers and tributaries in the seven basins. And
while broad directions for hydropower development may be set at the national level, local authorities
retain a great deal of latitude in building smaller projects that they deem to fit within those guidelines,
and which do not fit the 'large dam' or 'primary river' criteria described earlier.
We developed two hypothetical scenarios to represent this continuum of governance and project
scales. The first of these is a single large dam scenario that would receive higher-level approval, while
the second involves a series of small tributary hydro development projects that together provide a
comparable amount of energy relative to the large dam scenario, yet would be evaluated at a much
lower governance level. That is, the large dam scenario (table 2) would be reviewed at the national level
by the relevant basin commission and just as likely by the NDRC and the State Council (especially in the
case of a transboundary river). The multiple small dams scenario (table 3), would likely be reviewed at
the very least by county-level authorities, and at most by their provincial-level counterparts.
The purpose of comparing the scenarios is thus not to equate them, but instead to evaluate
stakeholder perspectives on their magnitude and salience, and to explore the challenges of evaluating
the impacts of the two scenarios, including interdisciplinary and cumulative impacts. In addition, we
also surveyed stakeholders prior to defining the scenarios to capture perspectives on the salience of
dam impacts in general and to evaluate how knowing details about the projects influences stakeholder
views. For this general contexts survey, experts were asked only to rate the salience, as no magnitude
information was provided.
To compare directly perspectives on the two hydropower development policies, stakeholders were
provided with specific information about the objective magnitudes for the 21 impacts of dam
construction for each of two scenarios – a single large dam across the main stem of a river or several
small dams on the river’s tributaries – as shown in tables 2 and 3. Based on this information,
stakeholders categorised the magnitude of each impact. Using a scale similar to salience, magnitude of
potentially negative effects were scored from 0 (no negative effect) to -4 (maximal negative effect),
while potential positive benefits were scored from 0 (no positive effect) to +4 (maximal positive
impact). The scores were summed for each participant; the figure reports the average summation for
participants in each stakeholder group.
Table 2. Large dam scenario. Data in distilled format as presented to stakeholders.
Biophysical impacts Objective measure

BP1: Water Quality (retention time) One-year retention time.
BP2: Biodiversity (habitat quality for Four migratory fish species affected, 3 diversity hotspots inundated,
rare/endemic species) increased habitat for amphibians and Asian carp.
BP3: Impact Area (habitat quantity) 300 km² and 160km river impounded
BP4: Sediment (trap efficiency and 99% trap efficiency, 30% of basin blocked.
percent of basin contributing to dam)
BP5: Natural Flow Regime (change to Flows over 6 RYI trapped, baseflow increased by 400%.
floods and baseflows)
BP6: Climate Change and Air Quality Net 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 'saved'.

(CO2 equivalent of coal)

BP7: Landscape Stability (distance to 27 active and potentially active landslides >20m³, 4 km from faults.
faults, landslide hazard)
Socioeconomic impacts Objective measure
SE1: Social Cohesion (Buckner Scale) 30% of people are resettled from villages into towns, disrupting social
networks (including labour sharing and money lending).
SE2: Cultural Change (index of impacts 40 villages will lose cultural sites, including tombs, archaeological sites
on material cultural; knowledge of the and present temple site.
local ecosystem; sense of place)
SE3: Local Hydropower Access (index of Availability increased to 24 hrs/day, but price increased 20%.
frequency and price)
SE4: Health Impacts (index of drinking 10% more cases of schistosomiasis and malaria; 40% of people must
water quality, water‐borne illness, walk 2 km for drinking water.
toxicity)
SE5: Income (as a share of watershed Income inequality increased 20% because some people work at dam
average) site, while farmers’ land quantity and quality decreased.
SE6: Wealth (housing and land values, Liquid wealth has increased to exceed provincial average, because of
as a share of watershed average) compensation from government and hydro companies.
SE7: Macro Impacts (index of the cost (Value of hydropower + increased mining access) – (cost of
of resettlement, costs of infrastructure resettlement and infrastructure) = +4%.
and present commercial value of
hydropower produced)
Geopolitical impacts Objective measure

GP1: Share of basin population affected 1%
GP2: Political boundaries Basin crosses five international boundaries, two provincial and ten
county boundaries within the country of interest.
GP3: Share of watershed covered by 80% but not the two upstream countries.
treaties or River Basin Organisation
(RBO)
GP4: Domestic governance – internal Standard decision-making process in China.
(Democracy Index)
GP5: Historical stability/tensions Concern expressed and organised over environmental and social
impacts. Support from provincial and national interests for
hydropower.
GP6: Domestic governance – Downstream neighbours vary in level of democracy, from military
international/other riparians government to constitutional democracy.
(Democracy Index)
GP7: Impacts for non‐constituents Potential hydropower market, greater transportation network and
flood control. Some concern over loss of nutrients, fisheries and
vulnerable hydrology.

Table 3. Small dams scenario. Data in distilled format as presented to stakeholders.
Biophysical impacts Objective measure

BP1: Water Quality (retention time) No change in retention time.
BP2: Biodiversity (habitat quality for No migratory fish species, no biodiversity hotspots directly
rare/endemic species) affected but possibly affected, no clear benefits to natural value.
2
BP3: Impact Area (habitat quantity) 4 km and 1km impounded.
BP4: Sediment (trap efficiency and percent of 0% trap efficiency, 20% of basin blocked by each structure.
basin contributing to dam)
BP5: Natural Flow Regime (change to floods No flood flows stored, baseflow essentially zero below dam.
and baseflows)
BP6: Climate Change and Air Quality (CO2 Net 2.6 million tonnes of CO2 'saved'.
equivalent of coal)
BP7: Landscape Stability (distance to faults, 64 active and potentially active landslides <20m³, 1 km from
landslide hazard) faults but little potential for seismic activity.
Socioeconomic impacts Objective measure
SE1: Social Cohesion (Buckner Scale) 5% of people are resettled from villages into towns, disrupting
social networks (including labour sharing and money lending).
SE2: Cultural Change (index of impacts on 20 villages will lose tomb sites.
material cultural; knowledge of the local
ecosystem; sense of place)
SE3: Local Hydropower Access (index of Availability increased to 24 hrs/day, price decreased by 15%.
frequency and price)
SE4: Health Impacts (index of drinking water No direct health impacts.
quality, water‐borne illness, toxicity)
SE5: Income (as a share of watershed Reduction in irrigation water for 60 villages, decreased crop
average) yields.
SE6: Wealth (housing and land values, as a Lump sum payments for appropriated land.
share of watershed average)
SE7: Macro Impacts (index of the cost of (Value of hydropower) – (cost of resettlement and
resettlement, costs of infrastructure and infrastructure) = +5%.
present commercial value of hydropower
produced)
Geopolitical impacts Objective measure
GP1: Share of basin population affected Negligible.
GP2: Political boundaries Basin crosses five international boundaries, two provincial and
ten county boundaries within the country of interest.
GP3: Share of watershed covered by treaties 80% but not the two upstream countries.
or River Basin Organisation (RBO)
GP4: Domestic governance – internal Standard decision-making process in China.
(Democracy Index)
GP5: Historical stability/tensions Good communication with other riparians, some downstream
concern about dam operations.
GP6: Domestic governance – Downstream neighbours vary in level of democracy, from
international/other riparians (Democracy military government to constitutional democracy.
Index)
GP7: Impacts for non‐constituents Little awareness of issue outside of local impacts.

Results
The results of the surveys are organised in a number of ways to illustrate patterns in stakeholder views
of dam impacts. In addition, insights gained from the qualitative analysis of participants’ comments
during the workshop help interpret and contextualise these ratings.
Differences in salience across scenarios and stakeholder groups

Stakeholders evaluated the importance of 21 different impacts associated with dams; note that no
details about the dams (e.g. size, number) were provided for the general scenario, such that these
surveys reflect feelings about dams in general. Scores were summed for each participant; the figure
reports the average summation for participants in each stakeholder group. The process was repeated
for two more specific scenarios – a single large dam across the main stem of a river and for several
small dams along tributaries.
Figure 1 displays 'net salience', derived by subtracting the salience of negative impacts from the
salience of positive aspects. The combined results of all 21 indicators are averaged across all members
of each group. Positive net salience indicates that the stakeholder felt the benefits of dams were more
important than the costs, while negative net salience indicates that s/he felt the costs held more
significance than the benefits.
Figure 1. Net salience of impacts of dams in general and two potential dam development scenarios by
stakeholder group.
On average, academics and NGOs believed that the salience of the negative impacts of dams exceeded
that of the positive aspects. In contrast, representatives from hydropower companies and government
considered the salience of positive aspects of dam construction to be greater than the negative aspects.
Further, academics and members of the NGO community viewed the negative impacts of one large dam
to be more important than those from a series of small dams, while hydropower and government
officials considered the positive impacts of small dams to exceed those of a single large.
In comparing this general scenario to the Big Dam and Small Dams scenarios (figure 1), information
about the magnitude of specific impacts had a varied response on modifying the importance of dam
impacts. For academics, the large dam scenario was similar to the general scenario, while impacts of
the small dams scenario were considered to be much less important. This suggests that the academics

tended to think of large hydro development projects in considering dams generally. For NGOs,
information about the large dam scenario greatly increased their view of the importance of impacts,
with a smaller increase for small dams. In contrast, officials from hydropower companies and the
government viewed the importance of dam impacts to be high in general, yet the net salience
decreased as they considered context-specific scenarios, with the impacts of large dams being of less
overall importance than those of small dams.
Comparing hydro development policies: Variability in magnitude and salience across stakeholder
groups
As with salience, academics and members of the NGO community ranked the negative effects of dam
construction, independent of importance, to exceed the positive effects, while the opposite was true
for hydropower officials and government authorities (figure 2). Of the three groups, only NGO
representatives found the small dams to have greater impacts than the large dam scenario.
Academics tended to view the magnitude of impacts for large dams to be much greater than those
of small dams, whereas NGO representatives viewed the magnitude of impacts as being smaller for
large dams than for the cumulative effects of smaller dams. For hydropower and government officials,
large dams had a slightly larger positive impact than small dams.
Figure 2. Net magnitude of impacts of two potential dam scenarios by stakeholder group.
A more nuanced story is revealed by decomposing the overall impacts into biophysical, socioeconomic
and geopolitical areas. Figure 3 disaggregates stakeholders’ views of salience (top two panels) and
magnitude (bottom two panels) from figures 1 and 2 according to the three pillars of sustainability, as
well as the aggregate costs (left side of each panel) and aggregate benefits (right side of each panel) for
each pillar.
Regarding differences in perceived magnitude, all groups appear to be more concerned about all
pillars of impacts for large dam construction (measured in net terms) than the cumulative impacts of
many small projects. By pillar, academics tended to perceive biophysical and socioeconomic impacts to
be greater than geopolitical impacts for both dam scenarios, with negative impacts perceived to be
greater in magnitude than positive impacts for the large dam scenario. For both large and small
scenarios, socioeconomic and geopolitical impacts of the small dam scenario were perceived to be

smaller, both negative and positive, than biophysical impacts by academics. For both biophysical and
socioeconomic pillars, NGOs found the negative and positive impacts of large dams to be smaller than
academics, and the benefits to be smaller than perceived by hydropower officials. Socioeconomic
impacts, both positive and negative, were perceived to be the greatest of the three pillars for the small
dam scenario for NGO representatives. Of all groups, hydropower representatives and government
officials perceived the greatest benefits and least negative impacts of the large dam scenario, but found
some negative impacts of the small dams scenario to be of higher magnitude than academics. Notably,
this group considered the net benefits and costs of both dam scenarios to generally accrue in the
socioeconomic arena.
Regarding stakeholder views on salience, like magnitude, the importance of cumulative effects
around many small dams was considered smaller than a large dam across all pillars and for all
stakeholder groups. For all pillars in both dam scenarios, the negative effects were more important to
academics and NGO representatives than the positive effects. Academics weighted the importance of
the negative biophysical impacts of large dams most heavily, as well as the importance of the negative
socioeconomic impacts of a series of small dams. The NGO community found the negative
socioeconomic impacts of both large and small dams to be paramount in importance. Notably, this
group also considered the importance of socioeconomic benefits to be lower than the importance of
biophysical and geopolitical benefits. Representatives of hydropower companies and the government
considered the negative biophysical impacts of large dams to be much more important than those of
socioeconomic and geopolitical impacts. In contrast, this group rated the salience of biophysical
impacts to be the least for the small dams scenario.
Investigation of the objective magnitudes described in tables 2 and 3 in the form of a 5-point scale
demonstrates that different stakeholder groups view the objective impacts of dams very differently. For
example, the average negative score for each of the seven geopolitical impacts of small dams among
academics was 0.34 (between 'no impact' and 'low impact'), while representatives of NGOs assessed
these GP impacts with an average score of 1.24 (between 'low impact' and 'moderate impact').
Similarly, hydropower representatives and government officials scored the socioeconomic costs of large
dam development as 1.20 (between 'low impact' and 'moderate impact') in magnitude, whereas
academics scored the same effects as 2.11 (between 'moderate impact' and 'severe impact') in
magnitude.
Some interesting contrasts emerge from these surveys. For example, in the large dam scenario,
members of the NGO community tended to view socioeconomic impact magnitudes and importance to
be lower than biophysical impacts, and lower than were ranked by academics; however, the opposite
relationship appears to hold for small dams. This is interesting, particularly since most NGO
representatives in attendance were from organisations that specialised in environmental conservation,
not cultural preservation or a related socioeconomic mission. Further, the view of higher magnitude
and importance for socioeconomic impacts in small hydropower development, over large mainstream
projects, is not commonly expressed.

Figure 3. Salience and magnitude for big and small dams across disciplines.

In another example, hydropower and government officials viewed socioeconomic impacts to be of

greatest importance, but tended to view the potential benefits associated with these impacts as more
important than the potential costs. This may reflect the recent history of dam construction in China,
which has led to the displacement of some 15 million people since 1949 and has been, in part, driven by
policies that promote dam development as a key way to improve the socioeconomic conditions of
people, despite the potential for negative outcomes. These officials are part of the overall development
policy framework in China, which is fundamentally modernist in its outlook and seeks to provide high
rates of economic growth and improve living standards through large-scale development projects. A
common slogan from Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s recent economic reforms, holds that
"Development is the indisputable truth" (Tilt, 2010). However, massive resettlement and a limited legal
framework for ensuring public participation in the decision-making process may be represented in the
acknowledgement of negative impacts over large development projects.
Further, and taken together, these results show not only that different stakeholder groups view the
importance of different dam impacts differently, but also that they evaluate the magnitude of the same
objective data differently.
Qualitative findings
During the workshop, participants were encouraged to share their ideas both in public and in writing on
survey forms. Qualitative analysis of participant comments yielded a variety of important viewpoints
on: 1) the challenges of interdisciplinary cooperation; 2) the difficulty of standardising data and
indictors; 3) accounting for the distribution and potential mitigation of impacts; and 4) evaluating and
planning for the cumulative impacts of hydro development.
1. Challenges of integrated dam assessment. Most survey respondents stressed the value of an
integrated, transparent process for evaluating dam impacts, such as that afforded by the IDAM tool.
This approach is especially valuable in China, where the guidelines for environmental and social impact
analysis are often poorly defined. As one workshop participant noted, "Some things are considered
important [in EIAs and SIAs], and other things are not". Integrated tools can thus be important in
establishing transparency in decision making and in documenting investigations of dam impacts on
biophysical, socioeconomic and geopolitical systems.
While valuable, however, such research efforts can be extremely complex and daunting. One
representative of an environmental NGO remarked that "Such an assessment is really difficult to do. It
takes decades to do a thorough job, and that’s why people ignore it".
For example, experts were uncomfortable evaluating impacts outside their area of expertise,
inasmuch that geopolitical impacts were viewed generally by all groups to be of smaller net impact and
importance than socioeconomic and biophysical impacts. This may reflect some confusion on the part
of workshop participants about exactly how dams affect geopolitical systems. One participant, a
scientist working in an academic institution, commented that "It’s very hard to assess whether the
effect [of a dam] on internal governance is good or bad, positive or negative ". Another participant, a
representative from a conservation-oriented NGO, remarked "I’m confused by geopolitical indicator 6
*governance in other countries+. What does this have to do with dam construction? It’s strange ". This
illustrates how individuals are often influenced by their academic and professional backgrounds, and
that salience may vary depending on the discipline of the individual. Furthermore, it suggests a need for
a very thorough introduction to impacts and indicators prior to surveying stakeholders.
The comments of two workshop participants are indicative of the fact that many issues are now of
primary concern. One official from a large hydropower development company said that "When we
think about the effects of a dam, we’ve got to consider several areas. The first is inundation of land and
relocation of people. The second is the effects on the environment". Another participant, an official
from one of China’s largest state-owned power generation enterprises, agreed that "On the
socioeconomic side, the relocation problem is key. China is a country with little land and a huge

population. It’s difficult to give land to resettled people. Cultural protection, especially for minority
cultures, is important. It’s a national priority".
These comments serve to underscore the importance of conducting interdisciplinary dam
assessments. Natural scientists and social scientists have traditionally used their own disciplinary
training to study the effects of dam construction, yet dams lie at the nexus of biophysical,
socioeconomic and geopolitical relations, and an impact in one area is thus likely to have repercussions
for others. For example, the adverse effects of dams on ecosystems, hydrology and water quality
(Salazar, 2000) often disrupt cultural conditions and economic institutions (Scudder, 2005; Cernea,
2003), and also influence relationships between communities, regions or nations (Wolf, 2003).
2. Standardising data and indicators. As with any model, the IDAM tool requires careful
consideration of the reliability and validity of the data used, the assumptions required for the model
structure and the most effective techniques for reporting results. Especially in China, compiling datasets
can be problematic, as data, if available, is often collected from multiple locations or gathered by
multiple agencies. One workshop participant, a representative from an environmental NGO, pointed
out that "If you collect some data in one place and other data from another place, how can you
standardise it"?
This question is particularly relevant to work in China, where data access and quality can be limited.
In an ideal setting, a research team would collect all of the data themselves, using the IDAM framework
as a template for minimal information to assess a project. However, that is rarely feasible, and thus
data are developed from multiple sources, often at low resolution and/or with great uncertainty. It is
therefore critical that some measure, qualitative or quantitative, of data reliability and uncertainty
accompany the analysis.
Regarding model structure, some participants argued that the assignment of weights between each
indicator was difficult to resolve. One social scientist in an academic institution noted that "Whether we
should give different weights to the different components [biophysical, socioeconomic, and
geopolitical] – that is the first question. And who decides the weight"?
This question carries important scientific and policy implications. One representative of an
environmental NGO advocated for placing more weight on biophysical indicators such as Natural Value
(BP2) when applying the model in ecologically sensitive areas:
We know that Yunnan is such a small area, but the biodiversity is quite rich. It has as much biodiversity as
the entire United States, so we have to pay attention to this unique system. In such a small area, once
[biodiversity] is destroyed, you lose millions of years of evolution that you can never get back... Because
the biodiversity is so high in a place like Yunnan, it should be rated much higher, because if it’s destroyed,
we’ll never even know what was lost.
The development of weighting criteria in quantitative decision theory is challenging due to the
subjectivity of the task. Utility theory (Chechile, 1991; Fishburn, 1968) and the Analytic Hierarchy
Process (AHP) (Saaty, 2001; Schmoldt et al., 2001) are examples of multi-objective decision-making
frameworks that require weighting of various decision criteria. While methods for weighting criteria in
utility theory matrices are unspecified and may vary according to the preferences of the user, the AHP
specifies a method for calculating weights, requiring that stakeholders rank decision criteria relative to
one another. Expert opinion, for example the Delphi method (Gordon and Helmer, 1964), has also been
utilised in weighting objective criteria for decision making (Armour and Williamson, 1988; Smit and
Spaling, 1995). With the IDAM instrument, we have taken the philosophy that the weighting decision
should be made on a case-by-case basis. For the analysis presented here, we applied an equal weighting
of all indicator magnitudes. Weighting is instead represented by the assignment of salience to the
indicators by the different stakeholders, which we believe is another weighting approach that also
increases transparency. For example, if biodiversity trumps all others, then it will simply receive the
highest salience weighting.

3. Distribution and mitigation of impacts. Finally, many workshop participants agreed with the
need to capture both the distribution of costs and benefits, and the potential for mitigating certain
impacts. In regard to impacts’ distributions, one representative from an environmental NGO summed
up the challenge by stating that "We’re talking about impacts, but it’s important to know who bears the
impacts". Similarly, a scientist from an academic institution suggested that "We’ve got to consider the
benefit-sharing arrangement, the distribution of benefits [from dams]. This includes doing a
stakeholder analysis. Who loses and who wins when it comes to property rights, indigenous knowledge
and so forth"?
Certain types of negative dam impacts may be mitigated, while the mitigation of others may be
infeasible or impossible. An official from one of China’s largest state-owned power generation
enterprises commented that "We’ve got to consider how able we are to mitigate certain effects of
dams, like ecological impacts. Also, who has the responsibility to mitigate "? This is a particularly difficult
challenge in China, and one that varies based on the size and purpose of a given hydropower project.
For example, large dams may arguably have a greater impact on local ecosystems, but national laws
require at least a nominal environmental impact assessment of such large projects. Meanwhile, dozens
of small hydropower projects exist on tributaries which, as a result of their small scale, mostly undergo
scrutiny only by county-level officials. Under such limited oversight, mitigation of environmental and
social impacts may be compromised. Given that the responsibilities for designing, constructing,
operating and regulating hydroelectric dams may fall to literally dozens of agencies and companies,
determining responsible parties and holding them accountable in cases of negative impact mitigation
becomes acutely important.
4. Cumulative impacts assessment. The small-scale scenario supports calls (WCD, 2000; Yao et al.,
2006) for the assessment of cumulative impacts of hydro development projects. During our surveys,
challenges arose in considering how to aggregate impacts from 100 small tributary projects, and
concerns arose among workshop participants around the validity of comparing large and small dams. At
one level, this concern stems from uncertainty about when such comparisons are meaningful and
relevant. Workshop participants expressed concern that large and small hydropower projects may be
incommensurable in terms of benefits (e.g. provision and distribution of electrical power) and costs
(e.g. displacement of human population, effects on ecosystems). As one participant, a scientist in an
academic institution, noted, "You can’t just add up 100 small hydropower projects to equal one large
dam". In a similar concern regarding mitigation, a scientist in an academic institution noted that
"There’s no way to capture who’s responsible for mitigation. Small dams look better than big dams on
many indicators, but no one is accountable, so the actual outcomes can be worse ".
Further, given the longitudinal connection of river systems and the fact that dams already exist
upstream and downstream of new hydro development sites in south-western China, the need to
reconsider that the definition of an environmental and social 'baseline' may be necessary to relate new
projects to existing developments for hierarchical, additive and synergistic links is warranted (Wenger
et al., 1990). Further, it will be critical to identify what jurisdiction is ultimately responsible for both
basin planning and assessing cumulative impacts of hydro development, the benefits of which span
multiple basins and jurisdictions.
CONCLUSIONS
Our experience in developing and applying the IDAM tool illustrates some of the important challenges
that remain in comprehensively assessing the impacts of hydropower development. This is somewhat
troubling, given the time that has elapsed since the WCD report and the rate of dam building around
the world, much of which is occurring in data-poor environments. From complicated policies to
interconnected and indirect impacts, scientists will need to continue investigating ways to meet the
recommendations of the WCD. However, a few key conclusions are beginning to emerge.

First, regardless of which tool is used in the assessment of dam impacts, our results suggest there is
an important need to consider stakeholder perspectives, as different groups view both the objective
magnitude and subjective salience of impacts differently. This is an important element that should be
considered in any decision support tool.
Second, some impacts (e.g. geopolitical) are not as well understood by stakeholders as other
impacts. While the structure of the IDAM tool uses bins to provide context for the magnitude of
impacts, it is still important to assess impacts, articulate views and document factors in decision making
independently for stakeholders from different backgrounds. Further, in addition to this lateral
variability in stakeholder views of impacts, we anticipate vertical variability in stakeholder views. That
is, particularly in governments that are particularly hierarchical in organisation, such as China, higher
level decision makers collectively are likely to have different views than lower level decision makers.
Third, some challenges remain in structuring models to assess and weight cumulative and
management/mitigation impacts over space and time. A major challenge is over-structuring the
assessment model; flexibility in the model is important to meet the various scenarios under which
stakeholders need to articulate information and document decisions about dams.
Fourth, uncertainty due to the scarcity and reliability of information could play an important role in
developing stakeholders’ perceptions of impacts. Decision support tools can provide an important
analysis framework that establishes minimum information requirements and techniques for expressing
uncertainty in assessments.
Finally, a key advantage of a decision-support tool like the IDAM is the introduction of more
transparency into the decision-making process. When stakeholders and decision-makers are allowed to
rate salience as well as magnitude, their value judgements become explicit rather than remaining
implicit or invisible.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We gratefully acknowledge Professors HE Daming and YAN Feng and the Asian International Rivers
Centre at Yunnan University for collaborating on the development of the IDAM tool and for planning
and hosting the International Conference on the Impacts of Dams in Kunming, China in July 2009. We
also would like to thank Francis Gassert, Ying Li, Eddie Schmitt, Qianwen Xu and Yong Zhang for their
assistance with data collection and analysis. This work was funded by the National Science Foundation
through awards # 0623087 and # 0826752.
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Assessing the influence of environmental impact assessments on science and

policy: An analysis of the Three Gorges Project
Desiree Tullos*
Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, 116 Gilmore Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: The need to understand and minimize negative environmental outcomes associated with large dams has
Received 15 September 2007 both contributed to and benefited from the introduction and subsequent improvements in the Envi-
Received in revised form 1 April 2008 ronmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. However, several limitations in the EIA process remain,
Accepted 30 July 2008
including those associated with the uncertainty and significance of impact projections. These limitations
Available online 20 November 2008
are directly related to the feedback between science and policy, with information gaps in scientific
understanding discovered through the EIA process contributing valuable recommendations on critical
Keywords:
focus areas for prioritizing and funding research within the fields of ecological conservation and river
Environmental impact assessment
Dams engineering.
Three Gorges Project This paper presents an analysis of the EIA process for the Three Gorges Project (TGP) in China as a case
Uncertainty study for evaluating this feedback between the EIA and science and policy. For one of the best-studied
Prioritization public development projects in the world, this paper presents an investigation into whether patterns
exist between the scientific interest (via number of publications) in environmental impacts and (a) the
identification of impacts as uncertain or priority by the EIA, (b) decisions or political events associated
with the dam, and (c) impact type. This analysis includes the compilation of literature on TGP, charac-
terization of ecosystem interactions and responses to TGP through a hierarchy of impacts, coding of EIA
impacts as ‘‘uncertain’’ impacts that require additional study and ‘‘priority’’ impacts that have particu-
larly high significance, mapping of an event chronology to relate policies, institutional changes, and
decisions about TGP as ‘‘events’’ that could influence the focus and intensity of scientific investigation,
and analysis of the number of publications by impact type and order within the impact hierarchy. From
these analyses, it appears that the availability and consistency of scientific information limit the accuracy
of environmental impact projections. These analyses also suggest a lack of direct feedback between the
EIA process and emerging science, as indicated by the failure of literature to focus on issues related to the
design and management of TGP, ultimately challenging the environmental sustainability of the project.
While the EIA process has enormous potential for improving both the basic sciences and the planning
and sustainability of hydrodevelopment, important institutional changes need to occur for this potential
to be realized. This paper concludes with recommendations about those institutional changes needed to
improve the feedback between the science and policy, and ultimately the environmental sustainability, of
large dams.
Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction (World Commission on Dams, 2000). Dams fragment river systems,

causing multilevel effects throughout the aquatic ecosystem in
1.1. Environmental impacts of large dams several ways. By interrupting the longitudinal connectivity of rivers,
dams interrupt the migration of aquatic organisms and alter their
Large dams offer society many benefits but simultaneously life cycles (Andersson et al., 2000; Jansson et al., 2000; Morita et al.,
impose adverse, and often irreversible, impacts on the environment 2000; Dynesius and Nilsson, 1994; Dudgeon, 2000). The trapping of
sediment and nutrients behind dams promotes downstream
erosion, impairs habitat-building processes (Gosselink et al., 1974;
Abbreviations: TGP, Three Gorges Project; EIA, Environmental impact assess- Kondolf, 1997), and forces changes in the aquatic food chain
ment; CIDA, Canadian International Development Agency; CYJV, Canadian Yangtze
Joint Venture; SEA, Strategic Environmental Assessment.
(Humborg et al., 2000). Dams also modify temperature regimes both
* Tel.: þ1 541 737 2038; fax: þ1 541 737 2082. within the reservoir and downstream, thereby affecting the repro-
E-mail address: [email protected] duction and composition of aquatic communities (Clarkson and
doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.07.031
D. Tullos / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S208–S223 S209
Childs, 2000; Walks et al., 2000). Other environmental effects EIA that identifies scientific uncertainties leads the way for the EIA
include changes in flooding and hydrology patterns (Poff et al., 1997; process to play a direct role in guiding the science, decision-
Junk et al., 1989), landslide and earthquake occurrences (Edmonds, making, and engineering design to improve the sustainability of
1991), loss of biodiversity (McAllister et al., 2000), and changes to large development projects. Issues identified in the EIA as ‘‘Needs
aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna (see Kingsford, 2000 for for Further Study’’, for example, can inform the allocation of
review). Large dams impact the environment both directly and resources for impact assessment and mitigation (Clarke, 2000).
indirectly through various mechanisms that are well described in However, it is more often the case that the influence of the EIA
the literature (see for example, Li et al., 1987; Pfleiger and Grace, process on impact minimization is weakened by the information
1987; McCully, 1996; Friedman and Auble, 1999; Hughes and Par- gaps, providing inadequate guidance for modifying designs,
malee, 1999; Aparicio et al., 2000; Jansson et al., 2000; Penczak and particularly when projects have limited flexibility in the timeline
Kruk, 2000; Sharma, 2001). and budget.
To characterize and minimize environmental effects associated To evaluate the role that EIAs can play in informing the science,
with proposed projects, environmental impact assessments (EIAs) design, and policy of large dams, this paper presents an analysis of
have become a fundamental component of the planning process for the literature on the Three Gorges Project (TGP) on the Yangtze
large dams (IAIA, 1999). In the United States (US), the history of EIAs River in China. This analysis was performed to compare initial
is tied to decades of industrial development and consequent documents of the TGP-EIA process with independent scientific
environmental degradation. Regulatory protection of the environ- assessments to investigate which issues were addressed in each. I
ment in the US emerged largely through litigation. For example, the sought to identify patterns in the number of peer-reviewed publi-
1965 Scenic Hudson Preservation Conference versus Federal Power cations over time and across environmental impact types, using the
Commission suit demonstrated the judicial process as a way by impacts identified in the 1988 feasibility study by the Canadian
which the public could use the legal system to enforce environ- Yangtze Joint Venture (CYJV) as the baseline EIA document. This
mental laws. The US EIA process was created in 1969 with the analysis includes (1) the compilation of literature on TGP, (2)
passage of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which a characterization of ecosystem interactions and responses to TGP
mandated assessment of the environmental outcomes of develop- through a hierarchy of impacts, and (3) a coding of CYJV impacts as
ment projects. The EIA process was quickly adopted by govern- ‘‘uncertain’’ impacts that require additional study versus ‘‘priority’’
ments and legislatures around world, including Japan (1972), Hong impacts that have particularly high significance, and (4) an event
Kong (1972), Canada (1973), Australia (1974), the Philippines chronology to relate policies, institutional changes, and decisions
(1977), Taiwan (1979) and the People’s Republic of China (1979) about TGP as events that could influence the focus and intensity of
(Gilpin, 1995). scientific investigation.
Some form of environmental assessment is now required in This paper first introduces the background and EIA process for
most developed countries and many developing countries. TGP and then reviews the projected environmental impacts and
Numerous texts and guidance documents are available worldwide initial observations following construction. The relationships
on the subject (World Bank, 1991; Canter, 1996; Petts, 1999; Glasson between the priority and uncertain impacts, impact types within
et al., 2005). The World Commission on Environment and Devel- the hierarchy, TGP decision and reporting events, and the literature
opment’s Brundtland Report (Brundtland, 1987) emphasized the that followed the 1988 CYJV feasibility study, referenced herein as
importance of public scrutiny and consensus as part of the EIA (CYJV pp.), are then illustrated. The paper concludes with reflec-
process, promoting global responsibility for protecting the human tions on the science and policy of EIA in large dam development.
and natural environment. In 1992, the United Nations Conference
on Environment and Development in Rio devoted Principle 17 of 2. Three Gorges Project, China
their Declaration on Environment and Development to EIA as part
of a larger call to relate human and environmental well being. Since The Yangtze River drains 1.8 million square kilometers of agri-
its initiation in 1969, the EIA process has changed and expanded its cultural and industrial terrain reaching from northern Tibet to
scope, from basic characterization of a limited number of impacts to Shanghai where it empties into the East China Sea. With a total
more current Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs) that mainstem length of 6300 km, it is the third largest river in the
evaluate direct and indirect impacts and address consequences of world and the largest river in China in terms of length and water
those impacts (Therivel, 2004). flow. As the river flows east through the Daba mountains, it
One important component of EIA through time has been the encounters a narrow constriction at the Three Gorges of Qutang,
uncertainties related to impact projections, which may either serve Wu, and Xiling (or Sanxia). The entire Yangtze valley is important
an important role in the design and assessment process (De Jonghe, nationally and globally, supporting approximately one-third of
1992) for dams, or limit the utility of the EIA to influence project China’s population (Vemula et al., 2004) and substantial agricul-
outcomes (Sadler et al., 2000). Uncertainty in predicting the tural (70% of nation’s rice) and industrial (40% of total output)
significance and extent of environmental impacts arise from production for China (Ryder and Barber, 1990). Further, the Yangtze
insufficient and/or inaccurate baseline information, unexpected River is China’s treasure house of freshwater aquatic resources. The
changes in project plans, oversimplification in monitoring and Yangtze basin, which comprises the mainstem, tributaries and
modeling efforts (Glasson et al., 2005), and a failure to accurately connecting lakes and reservoirs, is rich in aquatic resources and has
assess causality (Perdicoúlis and Glasson, 2006). Failure to address been listed in the Global Ecoregion 200 by the World Wildlife Fund
these uncertainties is due in part to limitations on time and (WWF) for priority conservation (Fu et al., 2003).
resources for scientific study, which Boxer (1988) reported would The Yangtze River is also responsible for some of China’s worst
result in underestimation of negative impacts of a project. natural disasters (Yin and Li, 2001). Major catastrophic floods
An EIA lacking in time and resources for full scientific investi- occurring over the last century on the Yangtze include those in
gation can lead to a flawed assessment, thereby weakening the role 1911, 1931, 1935, and 1954, resulting in the deaths of over 300,000
of the EIA process as a platform for guiding the policy making and people (Jackson and Sleigh, 2000). A 200-year flood event in 1954
engineering for large development projects such as dams. resulted in the death of 30,000 and the displacement of over one
However, this situation is different from one where the EIA, while million people. In 1981, another flood resulted in the death of
thorough, is inconclusive. Whereas an EIA that is not fully devel- nearly 3000 people. As recently as 1998, flooding in the Yangtze
oped given the available science is indicative of a failed process, an caused over 4000 deaths, inundated 25 million hectares of
S210 D. Tullos / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S208–S223
cropland, and cost in excess of US $36 billion in damages to prop- The TGP-EIA process began when a preliminary feasibility study
erty and infrastructure (Abramovitz, 2001), providing part of the was commissioned (1983) and published (1985) by the Yangtze
justification for the TGP. Valley Planning Office (YVPO), an agency of the Ministry of Water
The proposal for damming the TGP first came in 1919 from Dr. Resources and Electric Power. A second, more comprehensive
Sun Yat-sen, a founder of the People’s Republic. For the following 60 feasibility report was later commissioned in 1986 and published in
years, plans for the 175 m high structure took shape. Construction 1988 through the CYJV, a collaboration between China’s Ministry of
began on the concrete gravity dam in 1993. With the closure of the Water Resources and Electric Power and the Canadian International
structure in 2003, a 600 km long reservoir was formed upstream of Development Agency (CIDA). This 10-volume, US $14 million study,
the dam. To date, the TGP is the largest (Chen et al., 2001), most hereafter referred to as the CYJV study, was based largely on the
expensive (Qing, 1998), and most powerful (Lu, 1994) water project 1985 YVPO environmental assessment, reporting on the extent to
ever built in the world. It comprises a dam, two powerhouses, and which environmental and social impacts of the TGP affected its
navigation facilities. Fifteen years of construction and US $25 billion feasibility. This study, which was a fundamental document of the
have moved the project towards its three objectives: (1) flood EIA process for TGP, concluded that environmental impacts would
protection for over 10 million downstream floodplain residents, (2) ‘‘not affect the overall environmental feasibility [of the project] and
over 20,000 MW of hydropower generation, and (3) improved may indeed enhance the environment’’ (CYJV vol. 1; 16–12). By the
navigation. end of 1991, the Three Gorges Dam Approval Committee and
While the benefits of TGP are indeed substantial, the environ- Ministry of Water Resources reviewed and approved the CYJV
mental impacts of TGP on the Yangtze River ecosystems cannot be study. In January 1992, a state-appointed Approval Commission
neglected (Du, 1999; Yangtze Valley Water Resources Protection concluded that the CYJV study documented the benefits and costs
Bureau, MWR and NEPA, 1999; Chen, 2004; Huang, 2004). Given associated with TGP in sufficient detail. After further review, SEPA
the enormous size of the dam as well as its strategic position at accepted the CYJV study findings, emphasizing the importance of
1830 km upstream from the mouth of the Yangtze River, envi- implementing recommended measures for limiting environmental
ronmental impacts affect a wide range of river-related ecosystem impacts, while concluding that ‘‘environmental issues do not affect
components, among them hydrology, water quality, sediment the feasibility of the project’’ (Changjiang Water Resources
regime, geology, and both the terrestrial and aquatic flora and Commission, 2007).
fauna, including humans. Located in an exceptionally important The following review evaluates the 1988 CYJV study1 as the
conservation area (Park et al., 2003), TGP is set to affect the rich baseline EIA document. The CYJV study mapped the Yangtze River
biodiversity of the Yangtze river (Wu et al., 2003) and the endan- into three primary impact zones: (1) the reservoir area, (2) the
gered status of 25 fish species within its basin. middle and lower reach region located between Sandouping dam
Efforts to protect such areas now fall under the relatively recent and Jiangyin in Jiangsu Province, and (3) the estuary region located
EIA process in China (Ziyun, 1986; Chen et al., 2007), which requires from Jiangyin in Jiangsu Province to river mouth and coastal area
the consultation and application of various policies and laws, (Fig. 1). For this analysis, the environmental outcomes of TGP as
including State Environment Protection Act (SEPA – 1979), Water described in the CYJV study have been remapped into a hierarchy of
Pollution Prevention and Control Law (1984), and Environmental first, second, and third order impacts (Fig. 2) based on existing
Impact Assessment Law (2003) for major development projects. typologies (World Commission on Dams, 2000; Jorde et al., 2008) to
While Chinese law does require completion of an EIA prior to illustrate their interactions, link impacts across the orders to
construction, the penalty for non-compliance is completion of investigate causality, and describe their coverage in the scientific
a post-construction assessment. This leniency of EIA regulation and literature.
enforcement in China has resulted in a high failure rate in pro-
tecting the environment (Wang, 2007a,b). The EIA experience is 2.1. Projected and realized impacts of TGP
similar to other environmental regulations in China, the enforce-
ment of which has been estimated at only 10% (Gu, 2005a,b). Even in a very well-studied project such as TGP, information
Following the questionable success rate of this strategy at pro- gaps exist. In this analysis, I utilize these gaps as an opportunity to
tecting the environment, the policy and practice of environmental investigate the relationships between science and the EIA to eval-
regulation in China are undergoing rapid change, as illustrated by uate how scientific focus influences the projection of physical and
recent interagency meetings organized by central governmental biological impacts. In this regard, three questions were addressed:
agencies (HWCC, 2007), the increasing public criticism of large
development projects, and the organization of public interest 1. How do decisions, documents, and recommendations that
groups in China. In 2004, SEPA suspended work on 30 projects define the EIA process influence the number and type of
nationwide, including TGP, to evaluate environmental assessments scientific investigations on the dam impacts?
(Gu, 2005a,b). In 2005 alone, SEPA minister Zhou Shengxian 2. Does the classification of an impact as ‘‘uncertain’’ or ‘‘high
reported 51,000 disputes over environmental pollution (Wang, priority’’ influence scientific attention?
2007a,b), while Chinese environmental authorities report having 3. Does scientific interest follow certain types of impacts? More
received written and personal requests from 597,000 petitioners broadly, what is the role of EIAs for driving the science of
regarding environmental protection and rights in only four years conservation, ecological and physical models, and environ-
(Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, 2005). Community mental engineering?
groups, ranging from local alliances to formal Non-Governmental
Organizations, such as the Center for Legal Assistance to Pollution An examination of these questions in the context of the CYJV
Victims and the Chongqing Green Volunteers Federation, are study and the literature that it and the TGP project have spawned
facilitating the regulatory disputes and advocating the rights of can help shape our understanding of the links between science and
people and the environment in China with increasing frequency policy in EIA of large dams. An event chronology (Fig. 3) maps this
and intensity. These examples demonstrate how the policy and literature by its timing and volume to explore the first question.
public awareness of environmental impacts are changing in China,
with TGP-EIA both benefiting from, and contributing to, the
elevated status of environmental issues on China’s national agenda 1
The entire 10-volume CYJV study, obtained directly from CIDA, was reviewed as
over the past decade (Heggelund, 2006). the basis for this analysis.
Fig. 1. CYJV environmental study areas map. Three impact areas were mapped, including the reservoir reach and three reaches below the dam. The tributaries surrounding and
above the reservoir were not included in the study area because they were ‘‘not expected to affect the engineering feasibility of TGP’’ (CYJV; 1–4). Reprinted with permission from
CIDA.
Coding of impacts (Fig. 4) illustrates scientific coverage on issues by third order environmental issues, particularly those related to the
impact types, priorities, and uncertainties to address the latter two habitats and fate of Chinese Sturgeon, Yangtze Sturgeon, Chinese
questions. It is important to note that with only five years of dolphin, and the Siberian crane (CYJV, 9–26). This finding supports
evidence currently available in the literature on environmental the assertion that the techniques for predicting dam impacts on the
impacts since the closure of TGP reservoir in 2003, any references physical environment (e.g., hydrology, sedimentation, water
to observed impacts are very preliminary. Because environmental quality) appear to have advanced with the evolution of the EIA,
outcomes of the project are expected to change over time and with while projecting impacts on the flora and fauna (e.g., genetic
changing operation and management strategies, a comprehensive resources, significance of change on species and habitat) has not
analysis of environmental impacts of TGP may never be realized progressed at the same rate (Sadler et al., 2000).
(Wang, 2003).
2.2.1. First and second order impacts
2.2. A hierarchy of impacts at TGP 2.2.1.1. Hydrology. With the impoundment of the Yangtze River,
several hydrological changes have been acknowledged in the CYJV
According to established typologies (World Commission on study and the literature. Among the reported hydrologic impacts is
Dams, 2000; Jorde et al., 2008), first order impacts include the the inundation of 26 upstream tributaries that account for 21–33%
primary effects that are directly associated with physical, chemical, of the reservoir surface area (CYJV, 6–14) as well as the mainstem of
and geomorphological consequences of dams and reservoir oper- the Yangtze River, causing a velocity decrease by at least a factor of
ation, including hydrology, climate, sediment, and water quality. five (CYJV, 4–20). Further details of these impacts are available in
The second order impacts include those related to primary changes the literature, including confirmation that the inundation resulted
in the ecosystem, such as habitat quality or quantity and primary in lower velocities and sedimentation (Liu and Zuo, 1987), as well as
productivity of algae and plankton. Third order impacts charac- increased evaporation of water from the increased surface area of
terize the cumulative effects associated with first and second order the reservoir (Jackson and Sleigh, 2000).
impacts on the river system, including changes in the richness and Because reservoir operation at TGP is prescribed by the project
distribution of aquatic and terrestrial plants and animals (Fig. 2). objectives of flood control, power generation, and navigation (CYJV,
Scientific coverage of these impacts is not uniform across the 4–24), the reservoir water level was predicted to vary widely, from
orders. Despite TGP being one of the best-studied modern dam 15 to 30 m over the course of a year and up to several meters within
development projects, the CYJV study noted critical gaps in a day (CYJV, 6–15). Further, water levels were projected to fluctuate
knowledge regarding its impacts (CYJV, 9-32). Specifically, CYJV in a cycle opposite from natural conditions, with lower levels
identified a critical need for further study of several second and during the summer and higher levels in the winter (CYJV, 6–15).
Fig. 2. Hierarchy and interactions of Three Gorges impacts. Primary changes in first order impacts translate into cumulative effects across the second and third orders. Only impacts
considered in the CYJV study and the reviewed literature were included in this figure. PP indicates the proportion of the impacts in this category reported in the CYJV study to be
‘‘priority’’ impacts, whereas PU indicates the proportion of the impacts reported by CYJV as ‘‘uncertain. ’’
Downstream effects of this hydrologic modification were predicted cooling, and net radiation have already been detected in the
to affect water levels in the mainstem and potentially the two reservoir area. Wu et al. (2006) simulated and observed increased
largest freshwater lakes in China, Poyang and Dongting Lakes (CYJV, precipitation in the region around TGP, specifically between the
6–15), the latter of which is home to 41 globally-significant aquatic Daba and Qinling mountains, while precipitation was reduced
and terrestrial organisms (Gui, 2007). The greatest reductions in within the TGP reservoir area following the closing of the dam’s
discharge were projected to occur in October, when flows were gates. The impact of flooding biomass and the resulting generation
estimated to be reduced by two-thirds of the pre-dam flows (CYJV, of methane from decomposing vegetation and organic materials,
6–26). Upstream of the dam, inundation of the reservoir area a potential source of greenhouse gasses (Palmieri et al., 2001; St.
fragments habitat as people and wildlife are resettled. This Louis et al., 2000), was not addressed in the CYJV study nor in the
secondary impact creates landbridges and issues of genetic diver- literature available on TGP at this time.
sity and intensified population densities as people and wildlife Hydrologic changes also result in changes in the microbial
move to higher elevation areas (Wu et al., 2003). community structure as secondary and cumulative impacts.
Other secondary impacts associated with hydrologic changes Observed community changes in the estuary and the East China Sea
reflect local and regional changes in climate. Climate modifications after the TGP gates closed in 2003 are attributable in part to the
associated with TGP were projected to be minimal, occurring only sudden decrease in runoff and related changes in temperature and
locally within the reservoir region, and to be well within existing salinity (Shan et al., 2005; Jiao et al., 2007). Similarly, phytoplankton
background variability (CYJV, 6–31). However, Miller et al. (2005) abundance and biomass, negatively correlated to discharge in the
reported that preliminary changes in evaporation, evaporative mainstem of the Yangtze downstream of the dam, have been shown
30
CYJV
Report
Reservoir 25
Filled
CYJV
Initiated
20
Number of publications
YVPO
feasibility
15
MWR proposal
TGP
approved
10
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
32
35
38
41
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
Year
Fig. 3. Number of Three Gorges publications by year. Events are coded as ‘‘MWR Proposal’’ – Chinese Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) formally submitted the TGP proposal to
the Chinese State Council for approval, ‘‘CYJV initiated’’ – following the recommendation of the State Council, the CYJV study was commissioned. ‘‘CYJV Report’’ – CYJV feasibility
study completed. In June of 2003, the reservoir at TGP was formed, ‘‘Reservoir filled’’.
to decrease with the decrease in TGP discharge (Zeng et al., 2007a). that provide little habitat for the snail (Jobin, 2005). Upstream of the
Downstream hydrologic modifications were also projected to lead dam, occurrence of algal blooms within the TGP reservoir have been
to an increase in the distribution of the snail host (Oncomelania attributed to increases in residence time (Zeng et al., 2007b).
hupensis) and thus occurrence of a blood fluke (Schistosoma Secondary impacts also extend to other parasitic fauna upstream of
japonica) (Xing-jian et al., 1999; Zheng et al., 2002). However, this TGP, with the reservoir predicted to encourage the proliferation of
prediction has been dismissed by some due to the steep shorelines a fish tapeworm (Bothriocephalus acheilognathi) (Morley, 2007).
0.9 90
first order second order third order
impacts impacts impacts
0.8 80
Uncertainty of impact
0.7 Priority of impact 70
Number of publications
Percent Uncertain or Priority
Number of Publications
0.6 60
0.5 50
0.4 40
0.3 30
0.2 20
0.1 10
0 0
na
e
ra
s
ity
gy
gy
y
st
en
ita
an
ng
at
or
un
lit
lo
Lo
au
lo
lo
tiv
im
Fl
m
um
ab
ua
ha
Fa
lF
lF
ro
eo
di
es
uc
Cl
H
ic
Q
lC
ia
H
yd
ic
G
Se
ia
rc
at
od
er
str
at
ne
str
H
qu
Pr
at
qu
so
rre
an
rre
A
W
A
Re
y
Ch
Te
ar
Te
im
Pr
Fig. 4. Number of Three Gorges publications by subject. The number of publications for first, second, and third order impacts do not appear to be related to the CYJV study
classification as uncertain or priority impacts.
Secondary effects of modified hydrology also include changes in navigation, highways, reservoir slopes, and building of cities and
habitat, such as the submersion of sandbars that create eddies towns. These assessments of low hazard potential contrast with
utilized by freshwater dolphins downstream of TGP as resting sites the work of Sheng and Liao (1997) who reported that the steep and
(Fearnside, 1988). While it has been reported that birds and unstable slopes of the Yangtze River valley, in addition to the land
mammals upstream of the dam would not be significantly affected clearing and farming that further destabilizes the slopes, suggest
by inundation due to their mobility (Xiao et al., 1999) and distri- a great potential for landslide hazards in the area impacted by the
bution in higher altitudes (Xiao et al., 1999; Lin et al., 2003), some reservoir. A field study during the early 1980s by the Sichuan
evidence suggests that important habitats of terrestrial fauna may Provincial Geological Office found 203 landslide and mud-flow
be by the changes in hydrology downstream of the dam. For foundations in the reservoir area (Edmonds, 1992), which may
example, the Poyang Lake Nature Reserve provides critical habitat have provided the foundation for a particularly large (approxi-
to many unique and rare crane species, including the rare and mately 20 million m3) landslide that later occurred in July 2003.
endangered Siberian crane, of which 95% of the world’s population Other investigators attribute this landslide, at least in part, to the
overwinters at this reserve (CYJV, 6–99). The CYJV study does filling of the reservoir at TGP (Dai et al., 2004; Wang et al., 2004).
acknowledge that changes in hydrology could occur in this The debate over the influence of TGP on landslide hazards
downstream lake. It recommends further study to evaluate the continues. In 2007, a smaller landslide in an area near the dam
relationship between the mainstem Yangtze elevation and Poyang resulted in the death of one nearby worker, injury of another
Lake (CYJV, 6-22) and acknowledges that the unknown impacts on worker, and the disappearance of another two workers. The State-
the Siberian crane habitat constitute a critical environmental run Xinhua News Agency reported that no evidence exists to link
concern (CYJV, 6–106). In addition to the potential seasonal effects the landslide to TGP (Chang, 2007).
on the lake habitats downstream, filling of biodiverse side-channel Another geologic hazard of TGP is reservoir-induced seismicity,
habitats (Wang et al., 2005) and saltwater intrusion into the known to have caused earthquakes in India (Konya), China (Xinfeng
estuary may also occur (Chen et al., 2001) as a consequence of Jiang/Hsingfengkiang), Zimbabwe (Kariba), and Greece (Kremasta)
reduction of peak flows in the wet season. (Talwani, 1997). However, the CYJV study projected the TGP seis-
Despite their expected significance on the ecosystem (Jackson micity risk to be low following inundation (CYJV, 6–37). A similar
and Sleigh, 2000), many of the secondary impacts of these reduced assessment is supported by the work of Tan et al. (1997). However,
flood flows downstream in the wet season (summer and fall), as Williams (1990b) noted substantial deficiencies in the CYJV study’s
well as hourly and daily fluctuations in flow for hydropeaking geological assessment, including the underestimation of earth-
during the dry season (winter and spring) and synergistic changes quake ground accelerations leading to an inadequate analysis of
in water quality and sediment, were not well addressed in the CYJV reservoir-induced seismicity. Zheng (1992) agreed, noting that over
study. For example, despite the substantial reduction in peak flows twenty earthquakes have been recorded in the reservoir area, with
downstream, increased flooding of some areas below the dam magnitudes over 4.75 on the Richter scale, with one measuring 6.5.
could occur due to clearwater erosion and undercutting of the dikes Williams (1990b) has argued that the CYJV study finding of no
along the Yangtze that protect cities from rising floodwater. This impact was based on a record of insufficient data, with a resulting
threat to dikes is the same mechanism by which the 1931 Yangtze underestimation of the potential magnitude and/or frequency of
flood caused so much damage (Fearnside, 1988). The CYJV study these events. These critiques have preliminary support from the
dismisses this impact, noting that general lowering of the down- recent displacement (10–40 mm vertically, 5–10 mm horizontally)
stream riverbed may occur but that revetments along the banks of the lithosphere crust following the reservoir impoundment at
would prevent bank erosion (CYJV, 6–44). Similarly, while other TGP (Du et al., 2005).
second and third order impacts were identified in the CYJV
studyde.g., the increased probability of upstream flooding due to 2.2.1.3. Water quality. The CYJV study examined water quality
increased base level from deposition of fine sediment at the upper impacts, finding that while there was insufficient information
delta of the reservoir (CYJV, 6–43; Maize, 1996), many were dis- existed to determine the significance of many water quality effects
missed as insignificant and/or the significance internally contra- (e.g., temperature, suspended sediment, pollution dispersion) of
dicted by CYJV. This situation was partly a consequence of the TGP, none of these effects were likely to influence the feasibility of
difficulty in projecting second and third order impacts of large the project (CYJV, 6–68). The study did note potentially significant
dams (World Commission on Dams, 2000) when baseline data are impacts of supersaturation below the dam, resulting in fish kills
lacking (CYJV, 1988). from gas bubble disease (CYJV, 6–22), as well as the presence of
mercury in inundated soil and plants of the Yangtze basin, which
2.2.1.2. Geology. The scientific literature reports greater concern would prohibit human consumption of fish (CYJV, 6–66). It sug-
over geological impacts than was reported in the CYJV study. gested that both could be mitigated by monetary compensation,
Erosion of reservoir shorelines caused by waves and fluctuating enhancement measures, and aquaculture production (CYJV, 6–22;
water levels and instability of slopes due to construction of roads 6–68). Not only does the scientific literature contradict these
and infrastructure are presented as the potential impacts of TGP by findings but the CYJV study contradicts itself. For example, CYJV
the CYJV study (CYJV, 6–37). The hundreds of known, existing reported that TGP would either have no effect on, or would reduce
landslides caused by deforestation, rural development, and saltwater intrusion (CYJV, 6–23), but later reported that reduced
underlying geology in the TGP region, some of which are in a state flows could significantly increase saltwater intrusion (CYJV, 6–26).
of active deformation (Chen and Cai, 1994; Liu et al., 2004), were Early reports attempting to predict salinity effects found that while
predicted not to further destabilize with inundation at TGP (CYJV, saltwater intrusion may not occur during the low-water season
6–36). While the CYJV study did acknowledge that new landslides under the increased baseflow, it could occur in the wet season as
could occur around the reservoir area, it qualified its assessment by the reservoir stores water and flows are reduced downstream (Liu
noting that landslides are a common feature of the Yangtze River and Zuo, 1987). More recent assessments found that saltwater
valley and that the hazards are low, with impacts projected to fall intrusion was already increasing in the Yangtze estuary prior to
primarily on navigation (CYJV, 6–36). Wu et al. (2001) confirm the closure of the dam at TGP (Xing et al., 2001), potentially influencing
low risk of landslides in the area, finding that landslide hazards waterworks (Chen, 1998), water supply (Li and Shao, 1996), crop
cover an area of less than 5% of the total region, with secondary productivity (Shanzhong et al., 2007), and the estuary ecosystem
impacts not affecting the TGP but potentially affecting the (Zhu et al., 2006).
Changes in flow and water quality appear to have already regime, some discrepancies are found between the CYJV study’s
affected the microbial communities of the Yangtze mainstem and predicted sediment impacts and reports in the literature. This
estuary. Since inundation of TGP in 2003, substantial algae blooms, difference in views is primarily related to the sedimentation rates
predominantly dinoflagellates (Peridiniopsis spp.) and diatoms estimated for the approximately 530 million tons of sediment
(Cyclotella spp.), have been observed, particularly during the spring entering the TGP reservoir every year. The CYJV study reported,
dry season (Cai and Hu, 2006; Tang et al., 2006). At this stage, it is with little noted uncertainty, estimates of sedimentation rates in
unclear whether changes in primary production are a response to the reservoir of 80% for the first 50–60 years, predicting that
declines in water quality or changes in flow regime. Cai and Hu alternating deposition and erosion would occur to maintain 95% of
(2006) report that overall water quality was not degraded in the live storage over the long-term (CYJV, 6–43). However, Luk and
TGP reservoir, due in part to the low retention time of water. Whitney (1990) found that these rates underestimate sedimenta-
However, a laboratory study of inundated reservoir soils found that tion at TGP because some important factors were not considered,
they released substantial amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus to among them new sources from resettlement, land clearing, and
the overlying water upon submersion (Liu et al., 2004). Further, reservoir shoreline erosion, as well as existing upstream sources on
Gong et al. (2006) reported a substantial decrease in Si:N ratio at terrace floodplains that may be mobilized. Further, Williams
Datong downstream of TGP, accompanied by a 55% reduction in (1990a) questioned several calculations in the CYJV study that
sediment loading and an 86% decline in primary productivity, could result in underestimating sedimentation, including those
which they explained by changes in nutrient supplies associated associated with the calculation of equilibrium slope, bed load of the
with the 2003 filling of TGP. While these data have been called into Yangtze, and reservoir trap efficiency. Complicating the estimate of
question due to the temporal and spatial coverage of the dataset a Yangtze River sediment budget, China has begun working to
(Yuan et al., 2007), other negative impacts regarding eutrophica- reduce sediment volumes arriving at TGP, including acting on
tion in the tributaries upstream of TGP are predicted (Zhang et al., suggestions from the Yangtze Valley Planning Office to build more
2007) due to the decreased velocity from the impoundment. dams upstream to trap sediment (Luk and Whitney, 1990).
Another water quality concern is that of methylmercury Regardless of the exact figures for sediment trapping at TGP,
production, a central nervous system toxin (Clarkson, 1987). It is impacts associated with the modified sediment regime are expec-
easily absorbed into the tissue of fish that may be consumed by ted to extend both upstream and downstream of the dam.
humans, and subsequently result in mercury poisoning at modest Upstream of the dam, sedimentation is expected to extend into the
consumption rates (USEPA, 2001). Newly-formed reservoirs are mainstem and tributaries up to Chongqing (Liu and Zuo, 1987),
known sources of methylmercury to the aquatic food web (Kelly likely affecting navigation at the upstream end of the reservoir
et al., 1997; Duchemin et al., 1995; Bodaly et al., 1997). While the (Fearnside, 1988) and potentially altering flood levels for upstream
CYJV study indicates that inorganic mercury is present in the communities (Maize, 1996). Downstream of the dam, the sediment
sediment, soil, and vegetation in the area inundated by TGP (CYJV, reduction is anticipated to have multiple effects. Channel erosion is
6–66), no attempt to analyze the risk to the ecosystem or to humans predicted to increase and lead to deepening of the mainstem
eating contaminate fish from reservoir sources was made because it Yangtze, eventually reaching the lower stretches of the Yangtze’s
was believed that the lost food resources for people could be middle reaches (Liu and Zuo, 1987). While the CYJV study notes that
replaced or mitigated by monetary compensation, enhancement this type of erosion may occur in some areas, it does not consider it
measures, and aquaculture production (CYJV, 6–22; 6–68). to be significant (CYJV, 6–45). The CYJV study does acknowledge
Other water quality impacts are relevant to this analysis of TGP several negative impacts of sedimentation. It reports that the
but were given little attention in the feasibility study due to decline in sediment supply, estimated by Koshikawa et al. (2007) to
insufficient data. For example, changes in temperature were pro- be 23% for the first 50 years, could create a serious problem for the
jected to reduce crop yields for those diverting the Yangtze River for flood protection infrastructure and unprotected alluvial terraces
irrigation (Fearnside, 1988). Further, over 10 million tons of due to redirection of flows (CYJV, 6–45). Sediment decrease and
industrial wastewater and domestic sewage are discharged into the flow changes could also have second order impacts downstream of
Yangtze river and its tributaries each day upstream of TGP (Heming TGP on the preferred habitat of the Chinese dolphin. CYJV addresses
and Rees, 2000), in addition to the 28,000 tons of nitrogen and this potential impact with the recommendation that ‘‘remedial
80 tons of pesticides in annual agricultural runoff discharged into measures to ensure conservation of prime habitat should be
the river (CYJV, 6–47). These combined pollutants will accumulate envisaged where deemed necessary’’ (CYJV, 6–45). The CYJV study
in the reservoir, increasing potential for algal blooms and water also predicts that the reduction in sediment supply will have
quality impairment within the reservoir. As soils are flooded and a small but long-term effect (i.e. centuries) on the sediment budget
submerged plants decompose, anoxic conditions created by algal of the Yangtze estuary (CYJV, 6–45).
blooms may further affect water quality by releasing soil-bound Since the TGP impoundment, downstream effects have already
nutrients and pollutants (Gunnison et al., 1984). Unfortunately, the been observed, including a 65% reduction in sediment load in 2004
potential development of these impacts could not be thoroughly (Yang et al., 2006), one year after the dam was closed, and up to 25%
addressed because so ‘‘little water quality data [were] made avail- reduction of net deposition in Lake Dongting downstream of TGP
able to CYJV’’ (CYJV, 6–51). (Dai et al., 2005). This reduction in sediment discharge associated
with TGP has been characterized as generating an ‘‘ecosystem
2.2.1.4. Sediment. The first order environmental impacts associated disaster’’ for the inner shelf off the Yangtze River in the East China
with changes in sediment regimes reported to affect the feasibility Sea (Changsheng et al., 2003). Drawing from their estimate of a 31%
of TGP are those of reservoir sedimentation, deposition, and higher decrease in the supply of sediment to the estuary, Yang et al.
flood levels upstream of the reservoir, as well as degradation and (2007a,b) have found that the deltaic coast of the Yangtze River has
possible river regime changes downstream of the dam. (CYJV, 6– already begun to recede and predict that coastal erosion will
43). Substantial scientific study of the Yangtze River sediment intensify with time. Others predict that changes in sediment
regime began in the 1950s and has continued (e.g., Gu et al., 1987; supply, which acts as the primary driver of deposition and erosion
Gu and Douglas, 1989; Higgitt and Lu, 1996; Lu and Higgitt, 1998) in much of the Yangtze River, will lead to extensive erosion for the
with an entire 2001 issue of the journal Geomorphology dedicated next 50 years, after which a balance of supply will be reached and
to describing various features of the Yangtze river’s sediment erosion will be reduced (Yang et al., 2007c). These changes in
dynamics. Despite such extensive information on Yangtze sediment erosion and deposition associated with coastal sediment dynamics
define a secondary impact of TGP on estuary habitats, where the 2003), potentially causing changes in vertebrate species diversity
interannual and interdecadal growth rates of intertidal wetlands and dominance of non-endemic species (Cosson et al., 1999).
are strongly linked to the sediment supplied by the Yangtze River
(Yang et al., 2005). 2.2.2.3. Aquatic fauna. The impacts of TGP are uncertain at several
levels of the aquatic food web, from phytoplankton up through fish
2.2.2. Third order, cumulative impacts species. The CYJV study projected only small changes in
First order and second order impacts translate into third order, zooplankton and benthos abundance and found that those
cumulative impacts that can result in substantial losses for aquatic increases would be of little significance to the fishery (CYJV, 6–81).
and terrestrial organisms and the humans who live around and However, substantial increases in phytoplankton biomass in
make use of the river system. The CYJV study predicted that the response to the reduced velocities of the reservoir and increased
most critical of the third order impacts for TGP would fall on three transparency of streamflow released downstream have already
rare and endangered aquatic species and their habitatsdthe been observed (Kuang et al., 2005; Xue et al., 2006). Some
Chinese dolphin, the Chinese sturgeon, the Yangtze sturgeon (CYJV, researchers argue that these changes in productivity of the channel
6–95). Research studies extend these impacts to other fish species. will (1) impact water quality by increasing levels of eutrophication
For example, mathematical models predict that as many as six and (2) reduce Dissolved Oxygen (DO) levels, resulting in second
endemic fish species have a high probability of extinction, while the order impacts, such as higher concentrations of toxins in the water,
future of 14 other species is uncertain (Park et al., 2003). habitat loss, and reduction in food sources for fish (Xie, 2003;
Fearnside, 1988). It is these second order impacts that drive adverse
2.2.2.1. Flora. The Three Gorges area is home to a number of effects on the food web; TGP is predicted to negatively impact
important plants (Ye et al., 2001), which are likely to be impacted between 40 (Fu et al., 2003) and 80 fish species (Liu and Zuo, 1987).
by construction, resettlement, and reservoir inundation. For aquatic One indication of these changes in the food web is the increasing
flora, the CYJV study reported that river-system plants were already gradient of copepod density observed since the 2003 impound-
heavily modified due to agriculture, water diversions, and pollution ment (Yao et al., 2007). Reports of change in the next level of the
(CYJV, 6–69), thus projecting a ‘‘low magnitude of predicted effect food web have been published as well. For example, there has been
and little proliferation’’ (CYJV, 6–81). Morley (2007) also reported a shift in the density and composition of benthic macroinvertebrate
a low impact of TGP, finding a limited area for plant growth in the communities in Xiangxi Bay of the Three Gorges Reservoir towards
reservoir due to the steep shoreline and resulting narrow euphotic a dominance in oligochaetes in the two-year period after TGP’s
zones. initial closure, presumably due to sedimentation in the bay (Shao
The CYJV study also argued that insufficient data existed on the et al., 2006a). Also at the mouth of the Yangtze, researchers at the
distribution and abundance of rare plants in the terrestrial area National Taiwan Ocean University have reported an 86% reduction
around TGP (CYJV, 6–104). Since the CYJV study, Xiao et al. (1999) in the high productivity zone and a 55% reduction in sediment load,
have found 47 plant species among the flora of the Three Gorges both attributable to a reduction in flows during the flooding season
region that are listed as ‘‘Rare and Endangered Plant Species Pro- (Marshall, 2006). This study also reported a shift from silicaceous
tected in China,’’ with four species in Class I and 21 species in Class diatoms to flagellates in the Yangtze River estuary, a condition
II under China’s Wild Animal Protection Law (1989). On this point, which will negatively impact the health of the fishery through
the CYJV study has taken the position that the TGP will have no flagellate depletion of oxygen, release of toxins, and reduced
direct impact on natural vegetation because the region has already quality of food (Marshall, 2006). These impacts may relate to other
been so heavily impacted by historical and current anthropogenic changes in the food web, with observed shifts in fish community
activities (CYJV, 6–104). However, it has since been estimated that composition at Guanzhuangping Bay from historical species to
at least 34 local plant communities, including some found only in more opportunistic species (Shao et al., 2006b). The CYJV study
the reservoir area, will be partly or completely inundated (Chen acknowledged the uncertainty of these impacts, asserting that
et al., 1994; Huang, 2001). Among the rare and endangered plants since too little information is available, these types of estuarine
distributed in the reservoir region, the geographic range of Adian- impacts are unpredictable (CYJV, 6–94).
tum reniforme var. sinense, a species of fern that is important both Prior to TGP, 172 species of fish resided in the reservoir region,
scientifically and culturally in China (Liu et al., 2007), is predicted to 25 of which were caught commercially (Wegner, 1994), serving as
be partly submerged and will further decline due to damage by an important food resource for the residents of the Yangtze River
resettlement activities. A large proportion of the range for two valley. Affecting these fish are important secondary impacts that
subtropical fruits, Litchi chinensis Sonn. and Dimocarpus longan include the possible detention of fry spawned in the upstream
Lour, will be submerged by the reservoir. Among the specific native reaches in the reservoir, preventing them from reaching their
terrestrial plants in the reservoir region, Myricaria laxiflora was rearing grounds in Dongting Lake which is connected to the
projected to be most affected by reservoir impoundment (Xiao Yangtze River downstream of TGP (Chen et al., 2002; Duan et al.,
et al., 1999) and is now extinct due to habitat loss (Liu et al., 2006). 2002; Qiu et al., 2002). Huang (2001) has reported on the range of
fishes in the middle and downstream areas of the Yangtze that will
2.2.2.2. Terrestrial fauna. The comprehensive impacts on the be narrowed due to decreases in fry supplementation from the
terrestrial fauna are not particularly well understood although affected upstream systems. Interestingly, the third order impact of
acknowledged primary impacts include (1) inundation and modi- losing an important migratory pathway is given as a primary reason
fication of habitats, including low-altitude grasslands and grass for dismissing the impact of turbines on fish mortality (CYJV, 6–88).
farmlands, and (2) changes in the food web. The CYJV study No literature since the release of the CYJV study has confirmed or
specifically reported a priority concern for the Siberian crane at denied this assertion. Another secondary impact is the effect of
Poyang Lake Nature Reserve downstream of the dam. The study flooding on the existing aquaculture facilities, irrigation ponds, and
notes that hydrologic and sediment regime modifications could rice fields, which combined are responsible for twenty times the
have unknown impacts for this endangered species (CYJV 6–106). annual production of the region’s natural fisheries (Wegner, 1990).
Additionally, researchers express concern over the upstream The CYJV study acknowledges that the consequences of losing these
flooding of the valley that is projected to result in over 100 moun- aquaculture facilities are serious (CYJV, 6–87), noting that these
taintops and ridges becoming landbridge islands (previously con- impacts should be addressed by further aquaculture development
nected land areas isolated by flooding or rising sea levels) (Wu et al., and production (CYJV, 6–88).
While public release of data on centrally coordinated fisheries of a million people resettled (CYJV 8, 9–26), increasing to over 1.2
monitoring at TGP has been restricted until 2009, preliminary million people (Heming et al., 2001), the impacts are broad. Driven
reports provide evidence of third order responses to TGP in the by deforestation and cultivation of steep slopes, land recontouring
three years following initial closure, including 50–70% decreases in and water development projects, and increased densities of people
annual harvest of carp and up to 95% decrease in carp eggs and in urban areas of up to double the national average (Yardley, 2007),
larval carp, both of which can be attributed to changes in temper- these impacts could lead to increased surface runoff, wastewater
ature and hydrologic regimes (Xie et al., 2007). discharges, and erosion. While these environmental impacts are
The aquatic species most critically affected by TGP are those difficult to measure, they may substantially add to the cumulative
considered special, rare, or endangered, or those found only in the effects of TGP on the environment of the Yangtze River system.
geographical region occupied by the Yangtze. The CYJV study found
essentially no impact on some rare species, including the Chinese 2.3. Analysis of the impact projections and the literature
Paddlefish and Chinese Sucker (CYJV, 6–81) and discounted
impacts on the Finless porpoise, finding that ‘‘because of the rela- With the purpose of the EIA to both support policy and design
tively wide range of this somewhat rare species and the minor considerations and to minimize environmental impacts (Petts,
changes in hydrology of the lower reaches and the estuary, no 1999), evidence of scientific focus on uncertain and priority impacts
significant impact is anticipated’’ (CYJV, 6–81). should be clear. To evaluate how impacts of TGP were considered as
While the CYJV study dismissed impacts on the above- priorities to scientists and the funding agencies, a collection of
mentioned rare aquatic species, it did acknowledge impacts on literature on environmental impacts of TGP was compiled and
others. The fate of the Chinese dolphin, Chinese sturgeon, and reviewed. References for this literature search were identified
Yangtze sturgeon are three of the primary five aquatic environ- through the bibliography of the 1988 CYJV study and through
mental issues not dismissed by the study (CYJV, 6–94). At the time a search in several databases, undertaken using the keywords
of the CYJV study (1988), the Chinese dolphin (Lipotes vexillifer) was ‘‘Three Gorges’’ and ‘‘Dam.’’ Electronic databases checked included
considered the rarest freshwater dolphin in the world, with only Web of Science (1970–present), GeoRef (1985–present), Environ-
200–300 individuals remaining. The impacts of TGP on the Chinese mental Science & Pollution Management (1967–present), Aquatic
dolphins are indirect since this species is found only in the middle Pollution & Environmental Quality (1990–present), Aquatic
and lower reaches of the Yangtze below Yichang and rarely Sciences & Fisheries Abstracts (1978–present), EIS: Digests of
migrates into the Three Gorges area. The State Council Three Gorges Environmental Impact Statements (1985–present), and Water
Project Construction Committee (2004) suggested that the project Resources Abstracts (1967–present). This literature analysis
could improve the fate of Chinese dolphin, by providing deeper focused on articles published since the 1988 release of the CYJV
water to escape accidental deaths and strandings and through study with relevance to environmental impacts. The papers were
improved management of the Yangtze fisheries. However, used to map the scientific interest in environmental impacts at TGP
researchers warned that changes in downstream hydrology, across time, impact types, and the CYJV study findings.
degradation of the channel and aggradation of small island and
sandbars, could potentially destroy resting areas and reserves 2.4. Environmental impacts and impact interactions at TGP
(Fearnside, 1988; Perrin et al., 1989). The CYJV study acknowledged
the potential severity of impacts on Chinese dolphins but noted While Fig. 2 is not an exhaustive road map of all potential
that insufficient information existed to evaluate the magnitude of impacts at TGP, the hierarchical analysis includes and links those
the impact (CYJV, 6–91) and recommended immediate imple- impacts treated in the reviewed literature. This analysis is valuable
mentation of monitoring studies and mitigation measures (CYJV, 6– for investigating how uncertainty and priority translate across
94). Apparently such a program has either not been implemented impacts and illustrates the interactions between higher and lower-
or has not been successful because in late 2006, officials declared order responses to TGP. For example, hydrologic impacts directly
the species functionally extinct (Lovgren, 2006). influence numerous other responses to TGP, including those of first,
The fate of the Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) is still second, and third orders. While the CYJV study treated hydrologic
unclear. A large, migratory fish, the sturgeon’s range was limited in impacts as having little uncertainty or priority, it considered some
1981 by the existing Gezhouba Dam downstream of TGP. The secondary impacts influenced by hydrology to be uncertain and/or
sturgeon has since spawned in the 10 km downstream of the priority. Among those affected by hydrology is habitat. The
Gezhouba dam. However, it was projected in the CYJV study that percentage of habitat impacts classified as uncertain is high (0.63),
TGP created an additional third order impact on the spawning but the percentage of habitat impacts classified as priority is low
success of the sturgeon in response to flow reductions in October (0.0). Habitat then influences impacts on aquatic fauna, which were
(CYJV, 6–90). Additionally, extraction of up to 13 million tons of classified as both priority (0.14) and uncertain (0.43) in the CYJV
sand and gravel for the construction of TGP may ‘‘coincide with key study. This dichotomy illustrates that inconsistencies exist in the
spawning grounds for the rare and endangered Chinese sturgeon’’ knowledge about sources of uncertainty and in the prioritization of
(CYJV, 6–44). While, insufficient information was available for the impacts. If hydrologic impacts were considered certain, but habitat
feasibility study authors to assess the significance of impacts on impacts are uncertain, it could be concluded that habitat is influ-
Chinese sturgeon (CYJV, 6–90), researchers (Xie, 2003) later pre- enced by other, unidentified drivers, that the links between
dicted that the 41% reduction in discharge downstream of the dam hydrology and habitat are unclear, or else that the certainty of
would most likely destroy the remaining breeding grounds avail- hydrologic impacts is not as great as stated. Similar inconsistencies
able to the sturgeon. Navigation noise from increased shipping and exist with water quality impacts, noted as highly uncertain by the
mortality due to a reduced supply in food resources have also been CYJV study, though secondary impacts associated with degradation
reported as potential impacts on sturgeon population viability of water quality, such as changes in primary productivity and
(Edmonds, 1992). resource availability, were not considered to be uncertain. These
types of inconsistencies illustrate how uncertainty is not consis-
2.2.2.4. Humans and the environment. Described in the CYJV study tently translated across linked impacts in the EIA process and
as ‘‘the most significant environmental issue of the project,’’ the provide justification for linking the lower-order drivers of change
third order impacts on humans are primarily those associated with (e.g., hydrology, water quality) to cumulative responses (e.g.,
resettlement (CYJV 8, 9–26). With initial estimates of three quarters aquatic fauna) to establish causality (Perdicoúlis and Glasson, 2006)
in study impacts. This hierarchical analysis not only illustrates literature, respectively. This lack of attention on the cumulative
those links and thereby identifies areas for future study as part of effects of TGP is consistent with what Brookes (1999) describes as
the EIA process, it also emphasizes why a single disciplinary the difficulties attributed to predicting flora, fauna, and other
approach to impact assessment is incompatible with the environ- higher order impacts due to the multitude of interactions defining
mental protection objectives of EIA. them (see Fig. 2).
This analysis leads one to question why scientific interest failed
2.5. Literature coverage of impacts across time and EIA decisions to follow uncertain and poorly understood, but important impacts:
and reporting were hydrologic impacts more uncertain than the CYJV study
indicated? Why was water quality not of greater interest to funding
An event chronology was constructed by overlaying a distribu- agencies and researchers? The lack of consistency between scien-
tion of publications in each impact area over time (Fig. 3) with dates tific focus of literature published since the 1988 CYJV study and the
of important decisions and reports in the EIA process to illustrate noted limitations of scientific information in that report make it
the relationship between the EIA process and the number and focus difficult to conclude that the TGP-EIA process adequately informed
of research publications. Numbers of publications increased in the the funding for and pursuit of questions related to informational
years just before the Ministry of Water Resources formally gaps that should be uncovered by an EIA. Instead, it suggests that
proposed the TGP to the State Council in 1983 and continued to rise either the CYJV erroneously dismissed priority and/or uncertain
up through 1986 when the CYJV study was commissioned. For the impacts or that the scientific community failed to follow the CYJV
next seven years, little literature was published on TGP, despite the identified needs for further study.
release of the CYJV study in 1988. That pattern shifted again in
1995, two years after the TGP was formally approved by the State
Council. With the reservoir closed in 2003, scientists are increas- 3. Implications for measuring dam impacts – linking science
ingly reporting initial responses of the Yangtze River environment and policy
to TGP. The findings of those studies, as discussed in the previous
sections, indicate mixed and inconclusive impacts of the project. 3.1. Limitations, uncertainty, and responsibility in the EIA process
Disagreement between scientists and between scientists and state
officials emphasizes the remaining uncertainty in impact signifi- The World Commission on Dams (2000) notes that the EIA
cance, four years after the project closed the reservoir. process is often limited by five primary problems: (1) resistant
attitudes, (2) insufficient structural integration of the EIA into
2.6. Literature coverage of impacts and findings of CYJV study policy/decision making, (3) insufficient scope of the EIA, (4) inad-
equate procedural assessments, and (5) poor technical quality of the
The uncertainty of impact projections appears to generally EIA. EIAs are further limited in their function when performed too
decrease with increasing order across the hierarchy (Fig. 4). While late into the planning and design of large dams to evaluate alter-
uncertainty in hydrologic and sediment impacts was considered natives that include environmental objectives in the dam design
low by the CYJV study, the uncertainty of other first order impacts, and reservoir operation (e.g., the environmental flow component of
including water quality (0.83) and geology (0.67), was high relative the Mohale dam in Lesotho; World Commission on Dams, 2000).
to the impacts in the second (e.g., habitat at 0.63) and third orders For one of the world’s most widely studied large development
(e.g., aquatic fauna at 0.43) with the greatest uncertainty. projects, the TGP-EIA process could have provided an example of
The focus of research efforts does not tend to fall primarily on how science can move beyond these limitations to inform policy,
impacts that were classified in the CYJV study as uncertain or design, and management of large dams. For example, given the
priority (Fig. 4). Instead, the studies appear to be distributed across relatively long time-frame of this project development, some
impacts independent of prediction confidence and impact signifi- studies were able to inform ecological mitigation recommenda-
cance as stated in the CYJV study. For example, despite the lack of tions, such as the recommendation that several large water releases
uncertainty in projections about hydrology, it was the best studied be built into the operational schedule to stimulate fish reproduction
of all environmental impacts with 84 publications devoted to it. In during spawning season (Chao et al., 1987). However, it is unclear
contrast, the uncertain effects of TGP on habitat were the second whether this mitigation strategy was implemented, as preliminary
most-cited of the impacts, a situation consistent with the high observations indicate success in stimulating reproduction appears
percentage of uncertain, but low priority, classification of habitat is limited with the announcement of the Chinese dolphin as func-
impacts in the CYJV study. In this latter case, scientific interest tionally extinct. The ‘‘long and hard road’’ ahead for environmental
followed classification of uncertain, rather than priority, impacts. remediation at TGP, a recent warning voiced by a representative of
From the other cases, no relationship appears to exist between the the Chinese State Council (Yardley, 2007), reflects the limited
classification of impacts by CYJV and the number of scientific success of the EIA in contributing to mitigation measures of the
publications. For example, the well-studied impacts on water large project.
quality and aquatic fauna received the highest number of priority Some uncertainty in impact projection, and consequently
classifications by CYJV but were also considered highly uncertain by environmental mitigation measures, of large dams is inevitable
CYJV. In contrast, several impacts across the three orders (e.g., (World Commission on Dams, 2000). This uncertainty is driven by
sediment, climate, human environment) were relatively well cited the different time and spatial scales over which the various impacts
in the literature despite not being noted as priority or uncertain occur (Edmonds, 1992), a failure to thoroughly consider interdis-
impacts in the CYJV study. Other first and second order impacts ciplinary links (Brown et al., 2009) and their cumulative effects
(e.g., water quality, geology, channel change, aquatic fauna, lost (World Commission on Dams, 2000), and the acknowledged
resources) have been relatively well studied, with 40–50 publica- insufficient baseline study on the impacted river system (CYJV,
tions each since 1988, across mixed levels of uncertainty and/or 1988). Because scientific monitoring and study can be of substantial
priority indicated by the CYJV. value in assessing and mitigating the environmental impacts of
With the exception of the secondary impacts on primary large dams (Wu et al., 2003), linking EIA findings to research
productivity, the least studied impacts primarily fell into the third priorities and funding should be viewed as a necessity. Steps
order, represented by only 20% of the publications, whereas first towards improving the EIA process are primarily promoted through
order and second order were addressed by 44% and 36% of the the coherence and commitment of the regulators and scientific
funding agencies and can only occur if the EIA process is initiated Given the longitudinal connection of river systems and the fact
early in the preliminary stages of planning. that many rivers are already heavily impacted by man, the need to
For the integration of science and policy to be successful at assess and relate new projects to existing developments for hier-
protecting the environment, consideration of the hierarchy of archical, additive, and synergistic links is warranted (Wegner,
impacts of dams across space and time is needed. For example, the 1990). Extending this principle, the strong links between social and
hierarchical links between changes in hydrology and habitat are environmental welfare (Ledec and Quintero, 2003) make social
needed to understand the critical impacts of TGP on the spawning impacts relevant to the EIA process. For example, in the case of the
habitat of endangered Chinese sturgeon. With 98% of the historical TGP region, resettlement was considered the greatest threat to the
habitat blocked by Gezhouba Dam in 1981, severe reductions in the environmental feasibility of TGP, potentially generating profound
remaining 2% of spawning areas downstream of Gezhouba was environmental impacts, such as increased erosion from deforesta-
anticipated in response to the additional 40% reduction in flow tion and increased population density.
associated with TGP (Xie, 2003). This cumulative effect of the
hydrologic change translates across all three orders and empha- 3.2. Opportunities through linking science and policy
sizes the need for broad spatial extents, particularly when consid-
ering the profound and synergistic effects of multiple dams on an While the CYJV study certainly has its limitations (see Ryder
ecosystem (World Commission on Dams, 2000). and Barber, 1990 for an excellent review), the availability and
Fig. 5. Essential integration of publicly funded science with large dam planning. Arrows to illustrate the points at which publicly funded scientific investigation on environmental
outcomes should support the planning and development process for large dams. Modified from the World Commission on Dams (2000).
consistency of scientific information and the lack of a more direct that could have been reduced had systematically, and coherently
role for the science in guiding design and management of TGP planned, monitoring programs been implemented. As suggested by
ultimately challenged the TGP-EIA process. To overcome the gaps De Jongh for all development projects (1992), the EIA process for
in scientific information important for implementing and evalu- TGP would have benefited from the integration of a more formal
ating conservation and management issues, changes in the plan- and interdisciplinary approach for characterizing the uncertainty of
ning process for large dams (Fig. 5) are needed. As integrated with impact projections.
the planning of large dams, the EIA becomes a dynamic and long- To address the significance of projected impacts for a large
term effort to understand and minimize project impacts. In this project, an approach for considering risk would help focus research
context, the sources of impact uncertainty identified by EIA priorities. Various approaches already exist (Donnelly, 2006; ICOLD,
assessments offer opportunities for advancing the science and 2005), including Potential Failure Mode Analysis (PFMA), which has
informing policy, design, and mitigation strategies of large dams. been required under the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
The analyses presented here illustrate why the interdependence of (FERC) regulations on all hydropower facilities in the United States
scientific investigation and EIA intent needs to be utilized to both since 2002. Establishing causality across the hierarchy of impacts
guide and serve the assessment and design processes. This is (see Perdicoúlis et al., 2007 for an excellent review) can also reduce
critical because, like TGP, the realized impacts of large dams will uncertainty by providing linkages between impacts and their
vary depending on how the dam is ultimately managed (Shen and significance. By more thoroughly and transparently analyzing the
Xie, 2008). However, such an integration of science with policy uncertainty and significance of impacts, the CYJV study could have
will require establishing funding priorities that support these better guided research in a larger sense to further understanding
types of studies and should become a mandatory part of the and minimization of the negative consequences of large dams on
planning process. people and the environment.
Thus, environmental monitoring of large dam projects serves To be fair, the performance of EIAs both within China and
two roles: (1) providing the fundamental work that informs around the world is continually improving and the increasing use of
understanding of dam impacts over time and space and (2) forming the EIA process has placed more emphasis on improving the
the basis for assessing environmental compliance. To fulfill these identification of potential impacts. Whereas dams might be
roles, the explicit integration of scientific investigation should be described as ‘‘threatening’’ should an EIA not be conducted,
made for developing guidance on the environmental compliance prepared too quickly, or offer no mitigation options (McAllister
and performance of large dams. On a practical level, this chal- et al., 2000), the EIA process can potentially go a step further by
lenging integration will be influenced by environmental permits, playing a fundamental role in the design process as well as
legal agreements, and project scheduling and budgeting. Recently advancing the science and improving interdisciplinary communi-
the World Bank moved in this direction with the Second Ertan cation of large dam impacts. Evaluation of the risk and uncertainty
Hydroelectric Project (Sichuan, China), by setting funding criteria of environmental impacts should inform the process, both in spite
on, among other things, conducting annual site visits during of and in response to the enormous challenge of predicting the
construction to investigate environmental conditions and inter- myriad integrated impacts of large dams.
view local residents. This project, hailed as ‘‘China’s first large However, without a policy that continuously integrates scien-
hydroelectric project built in full compliance with international tific findings into the dam planning and design process, the
practice and yet in consideration of China’s practical situations,’’ benefits of expanding environmental analysis are limited. Institu-
(Yunhua, 2004) attempts a step forward in institutionalizing envi- tional and international policies regulating the EIA process also
ronmental compliance conditions in planning and funding of large face criticism. Concerns regarding the responsibility of environ-
dams (World Commission on Dams, 2000). mental assessment and performance of large dams include those
regarding who should perform the impact assessments (Edmonds,
4. Conclusions 1992; Fearnside, 1988) and who should establish and enforce
regulations and incentives for minimizing those impacts (Sadler
As climate change increases the potential for flooding and et al., 2000). In response to these concerns, Strategic Environ-
drought (IPCC, 2007) and the global demand for energy (Criqui and mental Assessment (SEA), adopted as part of the World Bank’s
Kouvaritakisn, 2000) and water (Jobin, 1999) of a growing human Environmental strategy in 2001, offers some guidelines for inte-
population also increase, a surge in new large dam projects is likely grating the EIA with policies and planning, simultaneously making
to occur. However, without comprehensive investigation of the the process more transparent and accessible to the public (World
potential impacts of a major project, irreversible and unforeseen Bank, 2005).
impacts to the environment will occur. For the EIA process to However, recognition of the interdependence of science and
constructively support the minimization and mitigation of the policy is critical within any public process, including the SEA
environmental effects of large dams, the links between (a) hierar- framework. In the case of large dams, science is needed to establish
chical and interrelated impacts and (b) science and policy need to an understanding of the interactions between, the uncertainty
be to recognized and additional commitments of time and around, and the significance of environmental impacts. Policy is
resources should be made to advance the science and sustainability needed both to fund scientific study and to enforce EIA recom-
of hydropower development. mendations throughout a long-term monitoring and environ-
A robust EIA process is essential in the assessment of large dam mental permitting process that is informed by the science before,
impacts. A project of the scope of TGP will be increasingly common during, and after dam construction. Only through the continued
in China and abroad. Several dams of similar height are already in engagement of unbiased science throughout the planning, design,
various stages of planning and construction in Yunnan Province, construction, and operation of dams can hydrodevelopment
Chinadfor example, the Xiaowan Dam (292 m) on the Lancang approach the sustainability necessary in the arriving era of water
River and the Song Ta (307 m) and Ma Ji (300 m) dams on the Nu and energy instability.
River (Magee, 2006). While it is encouraging that research on dams
in China has increased throughout the planning of TGP (Liu and Acknowledgments
Zuo, 1987), there are several lessons to be learned from the EIA
process for the world’s largest dam. This review has revealed This manuscript greatly benefited from the contributions of
discrepancies and omissions in impact significance and certainty Hilmar Malmquist and Guðmundur Páll Ólafsson. Funding for this
work was provided by the National Science Foundation, award De Jonghe, P., 1992. Uncertainty in EIA. In: Watharn (Ed.), Environmental Impact
Assessment: Theory and Practice, pp. 62–82.
#0623087.
Donnelly, C.R., 2006. Safe and secure – risk based techniques for dam safety.
International Water Power and Dam Construction, Wilmington Media Ltd.,
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Editorial
Introduction to the special issue: Understanding and linking the biophysical,

socioeconomic and geopolitical effects of dams
1. Introduction the authors whose work is included in this special issue partici-
pated in the symposium and shared with us the recognition
Dams have made important contributions to human develop- that, while various scientific fields have developed their own
ment, and the benefits derived from them have been considerable specialized theories and methods for assessing the impacts of
(World Commission on Dams, 2000). With the rising global popu- dams, no comprehensive effort to understand dams from a holistic,
lation and desire to increase quality of life, dams are prominently interdisciplinary perspective yet existed. The papers included in
staged to deliver hydropower, irrigation and drinking water this special issue, which represent three key thematic areas
supplies, recreation, navigation, and many other resources to the (biophysical, socioeconomic, and geopolitical) associated with
growing planet. Further, the uncertainty of the future climate sustainable development (United Nations Committee on
regime may mean that dams will play an increasingly important Economic Development, 1993) are a step toward achieving this
role in water resources. For example, it is predicted that drought- goal.
affected areas will likely increase in extent and flood risks will be In this brief introductory paper, we discuss the global distribu-
augmented in response to increased frequency of heavy precipitation and significance of dams in today’s world and discuss the three
tion events (IPCC, 2007), the effects of both of which may be thematic areas included in this special issue.
ameliorated by dams. Thus, the construction of new dams, while
in decline in the United States since the 1970s (US Army Corps of 2. Dams in historical and global context
Engineers, 1996), may see a renewed intensity both at home and
abroad. Existing records indicate that dams were first built in Jordan
At the same time, dams are increasingly slated for removal, around 4000 BCE. The earliest known dam remains, from the
reflecting a growing concern over their adverse ecological, social, Sadd El-Kafara earthen dam in Egypt, are dated to 2600 BCE
and economic impacts (Pejchar and Warner, 2001). Aging struc- (Schnitter, 1994). Romans built the first concrete and mortar
tures, which can pose a risk to public safety, are increasingly dams around 100 AD, followed by arch dam construction in Meso-
removed under new policies and funding sources to support potamia around 1280 AD. By the 1600s, the Spanish were leaders in
removal projects (Heinz Center, 2002). Dam removal is also dam construction, and they brought their knowledge and expertise
emerging as a promising option for restoring continuums and with them to the New World, a milestone in the global spread of
reconnecting habitats for migratory fish species, including anadro- river regulation.
mous salmon, that are federally listed as threatened or endangered With rapid economic development, increasing demand for elec-
in the United States (Gregory et al., 2002). However, there is a great trical power, and governmental support for large public works
deal of uncertainty about the consequences of dam removal (Aspen projects, dam construction reached its peak in the latter half of
Institute, 2002; Hart et al., 2002), particularly the unknowns the 20th century. Current figures indicate that 50,000 large dams,
related to the extent, magnitude, and timing of physical and ecolog- which the International Commission on Large Dams defines as
ical outcomes (Heinz Center, 2002; Hart et al., 2002). those greater than 15 m in height or having a storage capacity
Thus, dams are a crucial issue for resource managers, scientists greater than 3 million cubic meters, exist in the world today (World
and policymakers. To advance the knowledge about and inform Commission on Dams, 2000; Scudder, 2005). Dams are now a ubiq-
the management of dams, this special issue of the Journal of Envi- uitous part of the landscape in many parts of the world; a digitally
ronmental Management presents cutting-edge research in various georeferenced database of all dams and reservoirs worldwide,
academic disciplines and proposes new multi-disciplinary which is being developed as part of an ongoing research effort,
approaches for understanding and predicting how dams and illustrates this ubiquitous and often dense distribution of dams
dam removals affect societies and ecosystems. The goal of this and reservoirs (Fig. 1).
collection is to offer guidance for and provoke conversations about Among the large river basins of the world (those with a histor-
the interdisciplinary nature of dams. The idea for the special issue ical mean annual discharge of greater than 350 m3 s 1, of which
was conceived at a symposium, held in April of 2007 at Skamania there are 292), nearly one half (139 of 292) remain unfragmented
Lodge on the Columbia River in Washington State, USA, which by dams on their main channels (Fig. 2), and more than one-third
brought together scientists and resource managers to discuss (102 systems) remain unfragmented on both the main stem and
the effects of dams on social and ecological systems. Many of major tributaries (Nilsson et al., 2005). At the continental scale,
doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.08.018
S204 D. Tullos et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S203–S207
Fig. 1. Distribution of dams and reservoirs that have been digitally georeferenced as part of an ongoing collaborative development of a comprehensive global database on dams and
reservoirs Lehner et al. (unpublished data).
North and Central America have the greatest number of unfrag- 3.1. Biophysical
mented basins remaining (35), while the greatest proportion of
free-flowing large river systems remains in Australasia (74%). North Dams affect biophysical systems primarily by altering the hydro-
and Central America, along with Europe, feature heavily regulated graph of a river and by fragmenting river systems (Kotchen et al.,
river systems; 12 major river basins on these two continents have 2006). These primary effects in turn impact sediment load and
less than 25% of their main channel lengths remaining free- riverbed morphology (Yang et al., 2006); soil salinity and quality;
flowing. species composition of riparian areas, including the proliferation
Dams provide the opportunity to harness water for a variety of of invasive species (Mumba and Thompson, 2005); the health and
human uses, including irrigation, flood control, household and viability of aquatic biota (Kingsford, 2000); and water quality and
commercial consumption, recreation, and navigation. Human disease burden in human populations (Lerer and Scudder, 1999).
beings thus have the capability to heavily usedand sometimes seri- To better understand these biophysical impacts and how to
ously over-exploitdwater resources. Of the world’s 292 large river minimize them, Tullos (2009) evaluates how large dam impact
basins, there are at least six in which reservoir storage exceeds the minimization has both contributed to and benefited from the intro-
annual discharge: Manicougan, Colorado, Volta, Tigris-Euphrates, duction and subsequent improvements in the Environmental
Mae Khlong and Rio Negro (Nilsson et al., 2005). Another 14 major Impact Assessment (EIA) process. In presenting an analysis of the
rivers are so heavily regulated that more than 50% of their annual EIA process for the Three Gorges Project (TGP) in China, this case
flow is diverted for reservoir storage and use. Several of the world’s study attempts to evaluate the feedback between the EIA, science,
great rivers, including the Colorado, the Nile, and the Yellow, no and policy. Results indicate that the availability, consistency, and
longer reach the sea year round.1 Thus, the distribution of global uncertainty of scientific information limits the projection of envi-
dams is broad and the impacts of dams on the world’s rivers are ronmental impacts, and that a lack of direct feedback between
profound, demonstrating the critical need for understanding how the EIA process and emerging science challenges the environ-
biophysical, socioeconomic, and geopolitical impacts interact over mental sustainability of TGP post-construction. This work high-
time and space. lights important institutional changes that need to occur to
improve the environmental sustainability of large dams, including
3. Thematic areas in the special issue the integration of scientific research and environmental compli-
ance into the management strategies for dams.
There is a rich literature on the effects of dams (see thematic Burke et al. (2009) apply a process-based, hierarchical frame-
reviews from World Commission on Dams) and case studies of work to evaluate environmental impacts of dams on the Kootenai
dam removals are being reported at an increasing frequency (See River in the United States. By investigating the relative effects of
BioScience special issue, 2002). We believe that the concepts and two dams and the operation strategies, including environmental
information on dam impacts represented in this literature are flow releases, of those dams over time and space, these investiga-
appropriately framed around the three themes (biophysical, socio- tors were able to mechanistically describe and quantify environ-
economic, and geopolitical) associated with environmental and mental impacts of dams, simultaneously isolating and linking
social sustainability as defined by the 1992 United Nations Con- biophysical impacts of large dams. This framework is valuable for
ference on Environment and Development (United Nations river managers around the world because it provides a powerful
Committee on Economic Development, 1993). Contributors to this tool for assessing the operational impacts of dams on physical
special issue have focused their scholarship on these three key processes and consequent ecosystem function.
thematic areas. Schmitz et al. (2009) also linked physical and biological
processes through investigations of a dam breach and removal in
Montana. Using paleoflood hydrology, hydrologic modeling, and
1
At the other end of the flow regulation spectrum, reservoir storage in the Ama- aerial photo interpretation, these investigators documented the
zon–Orinoco is only about 3% of the mean annual discharge. corresponding channel and vegetation adjustments. This work
D. Tullos et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S203–S207 S205
Fig. 2. Distribution of main stem fragmentation by dams among the world’s 292 large river systems. White areas represent river systems excluded for size or lack of data.
demonstrates the utility of paleohydrology and aerial photography wildlife, increased flooding risk, and declining property values.
as tools for integrating biological and physical responses to dams Using hydrological models, the researchers determined that dam
and dam removals, providing a critical perspective on how these removal would actually result in minimal effects on the hydrology
responses are integrated over time. and biology of the stream corridor. Their study points to a signifi-
cant information gap between scientists, policymakers, and prop-
3.2. Socioeconomic erty owners.
Using geographic information systems (GIS) and hedonic prop-
Because dam projects are often used as tools for development, erty value analyses, Bohlen and Lewis (2009) examine the complex
their socio-economic impacts on human communities, both inten- relationship between hydropower dam location and nearby resi-
tional and unintentional, can be substantial (Egre and Senecal, dential property values on the Penobscot River in Maine, where
2003). International interest in the socio-economic effects of a basin-wide restoration effort includes plans to remove two
dams is on the rise among scholars and policymakers, as evidenced dams and decommission a third. Their analysis suggests that prop-
by the growth of organizations such as the World Commission on erty values may be impacted by dam removal, but that this effect is
Dams and the International Rivers Network. Socio-economic mediated by a host of other variables. Consideration of the social
impacts of dams include migration and resettlement (Bartolome and economic impacts of dam building or dam can complement
et al., 2000), changes in household size and structure (Lerer and studies of the ecological impacts of the practice. Ultimately, policy-
Scudder, 1999), changes in employment and income-generating makers have to balance the perceived ecosystem and economic
opportunities, alteration of access and use of land and water benefits associated with dam removaldincluding habitat restora-
resources; changes in social networks and community integrity tion and benefits to migratory speciesdwith other potential
(Fuggle and Smith, 2000), and often a disruption of the psycho- economic impacts on residents and communities.
social well being of displaced individuals (World Commission on
Dams, 2000). Managing and mitigating the negative socio- 3.3. Geopolitical
economic impacts of dam construction is an important task since,
as the World Commission on Dams noted in its seminal report, Geopolitical issues associated with dams range from the
these effects are ‘‘spatially significant, locally disruptive, lasting, unequal and unfair distribution of costs and benefits (Bocking,
and often irreversible’’ (World Commission on Dams, 2000, p. 102). 1998), to transboundary water concerns (Wolf, 2000), and public
The papers included in this thematic area address some of the participation and governance. Reviews (Waterbury, 1979; McCully,
complex human issues involved in dam construction and removal. 2001; Scudder, 2005; Wolf, 1994) of the geopolitics of dams empha-
Tilt et al. (2009) use the tool of social impact assessment to examine size the importance of hydropolitics, and problems often arise
the effects on human communities from two recent large-scale, when politics are not considered equally with other factors associ-
international dam projects: the Lesotho Highlands Water Project ated with dam development (Okidi, 1987).
in Lesotho, southern Africa, and the Manwan Dam in China’s upper Meierotto (2009) examines the role of advocacy groups,
Mekong basin. Their analysis suggests that social impact assess- including NGOs, in the decision-making processes behind large
ment should be used as a tool not simply to evaluate or predict dams, with a focus on the Talo Dam in Mali. Significantly, much
dam impacts, but also to facilitate the participation of key stake- of this advocacydboth for and against the damdcame from trans-
holders in the decision-making processes related to dam design, national groups that were somewhat removed from the experi-
siting, and construction. ences of the people whose lives would be most affected by the
Both Bohlen and Lewis (2009) and Wyrick et al. (2009) focus project. Despite the current focus of most international develop-
their attention on the socio-economic impacts of dam removal, ment organizations on community-based participatory develop-
a practice that is seeing an increasing trend in the United States ment, Meierotto’s work reminds us of the complexities involved
(Heinz Center 2002). Wyrick et al. (2009) discovered important in achieving this goal.
concerns among residents living adjacent to several small dams McNally et al. (2009) analyze the roles of policy and institutions
scheduled for removal in New Jersey. Although these dams pre- in hydropower development in China, which involves a complex
sented a safety hazard and structural repairs would be prohibitively array of state agencies and corporate entities. Using the ecological
expensive, residents voiced a number of concerns about removing concepts of resilience and vulnerability, and adapting them for
the dams, including the potential for aquatic habitat loss, impacts to institutional analysis, they assess China’s capacity for dealing
S206 D. Tullos et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S203–S207
with water resource management in a sustainable way. Their find- scientific disciplines. By synthesizing existing knowledge, docu-
ings have implications not only for China’s watersheds but also for menting new observations, and proposing new tools, we present
transboundary rivers elsewhere. this special issue as a collection of information to assist scientists,
Funding sources for large-scale infrastructure projects in the policymakers and resource managers as they assess the costs and
developing world are increasingly diffuse. McDonald et al. (2009) benefits of dams across communities and ecosystems.
explore the role of Chinese funding and expertise in the construc-
tion of Sudan’s Merowe Dam, one of Africa’s largest dam projects.
Acknowledgements
In contrast to the World Bank and other multilateral development
organizations, Chinese dam builders have yet to adopt internation-
The authors would like to acknowledge the National Science
ally accepted standards for assessing and mitigating the social and
Foundation (award #0623087) for financial support of the sympo-
environmental costs of dam construction projects. The authors
siums that initiated this effort.
suggest that, given China’s current involvement in dozens of
large-scale dam projects worldwide, this has important implica-
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Journal of Environmental Management 90 (2009) S303–S311

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Environmental Management

Modeling the costs and beneﬁts of dam construction from a multidisciplinary

1. Introduction Environmental Protection Act of 1969, the Endangered Species Act

Label Impact Description Metric

Table 4 articulate priorities associated with a dam project, making the

Key Impact High-impact dams Low-impact dam

Beneﬁts Costs Beneﬁts Costs

Socio-economic (SE) impacts

Geopolitical (GP) impacts

Perspectives on the Salience and Magnitude of Dam Impacts for

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 71

Interdisciplinary Dam Assessment Model (IDAM)

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 72

Assessing stakeholder perspectives

VARIABILITY IN STAKEHOLDER PERSPECTIVES: CASE STUDY IN YUNNAN PROVINCE, CHINA

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 73

Table 1. IDAM impacts and indicators.

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 74

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 75

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 76

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 77

Dam scenarios: Hydropower policy in China

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 78

Table 2. Large dam scenario. Data in distilled format as presented to stakeholders.

Biophysical impacts Objective measure

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 79

(CO2 equivalent of coal)

Geopolitical impacts Objective measure

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 80

Table 3. Small dams scenario. Data in distilled format as presented to stakeholders.

Biophysical impacts Objective measure

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 81

Differences in salience across scenarios and stakeholder groups

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 82

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 83

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 84

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 85

In another example, hydropower and government officials viewed socioeconomic impacts to be of

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 86

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 87

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 88

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 89

Tullos et al.: Hydro development scenarios in China Page | 90

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Environmental Management

Assessing the inﬂuence of environmental impact assessments on science and

1. Introduction (World Commission on Dams, 2000). Dams fragment river systems,

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Environmental Management

Introduction to the special issue: Understanding and linking the biophysical,

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