WATER

DEMAND &
ESTIMATION
FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE WATER DEMAND

1. Service levels to be implemented

2. Size of the community
3. Standard of living of the populace
4. Quantity and quality of water available in the area
5. Water tariffs that need to be shouldered by the consumers
6. Climatological conditions
7. Habits and manners of water usage by the people
SERVICE LEVEL DEFINITIONS

1. Level I – Point Source

-Provides a protected well or developed
spring with an outlet
-Without distribution system
-Normally serves an average of 15
households within a radius of 250
meters
SERVICE LEVEL DEFINITIONS

2. Level II – Communal Faucet System

or Stand Posts
-Composed of a source, a reservoir, a
piped distribution network, and
communal faucets
-One faucet serves 4-6 households
within a radius of 25 meters
SERVICE LEVEL DEFINITIONS

3. Level III – Waterworks System or

Individual House Connections
-Includes a source, a reservoir, a piped
distribution network, and individual
household taps
DESIGN PERIOD

For small water utilities, large outlays are

not available and cannot be matched by
the rural population’s capacity to pay. For
these reasons, the design period or horizon
in our reference manual is set at 5 or 10
years.
DESIGN PERIOD

Five-year Design Period

• Advantages:
❖ Low initial capital cost
❖ Lower amortization on loans due to the
lower investment cost
• Disadvantages:
❖ Need for new capital outlays after five
(5) years to upgrade system capacity
❖ Facilities are more viable to plan for a
one stage 10-year period than to plan in
two stages of 5-year period each
DESIGN PERIOD

Ten-year Design Period

• Advantages:
❖ The water system facilities are capable
of meeting the demand over a longer
period.
❖ No major investment cost is expected
during the 10-year design period.
• Disadvantage:
❖ The higher initial capital cost will
require initial tariffs to be set higher.
DESIGN POPULATION

The Design Population is the targeted

number of people that the project will
serve.

Determining Design Population:

1. Projecting annual municipal and
barangay growth rates
2. Projecting municipal and barangay
populations
3. Projecting the population served
DESIGN POPULATION
Given the following data, determine the population
Determining Growth Rate and in the year 2020 using arithmetic increase method.
Projecting Population
Year Population
1950 1000
1. Arithmetic Increase Method
1960 10000
-This method is based upon the 1970 20000
assumption that the population 1980 30000
increases at a constant rate. 1990 50000

𝑃 𝑛 = 𝑃𝑜 + 𝑛𝑥ҧ
DESIGN POPULATION
Year Population ∆𝑷
1950 1000 -
Arithmetic Increase Method
1960 10000 9000
1970 20000 10000
Given the following data,
1980 30000 10000
determine the population in the
year 2020 using arithmetic 1990 50000 20000
increase method.
9000 + 10000 + 10000 + 20000
𝑥ҧ =
Year Population 4
𝑥ҧ = 12250
1950 1000
1960 10000 2020 − 1990
𝑛= =3
1970 20000 10
1980 30000
𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑃𝑜 + 𝑛𝑥ҧ
1990 50000 𝑃 = 50000 + 3 12250
𝑷 = 𝟖𝟔𝟕𝟓𝟎
DESIGN POPULATION
Given the following data, determine the
population in the year 2020 using geometric
Determining Growth Rate and increase method.
Projecting Population Year Population
1960 10000
1970 30000
2. Geometric Increase Method
1980 65000
-when the instantaneous rate of change 1990 100000
of population is constant
DESIGN POPULATION Year Population ∆𝑷 %increase
1960 10000 -
1970 30000 20000 200
Geometric Increase Method
1980 65000 35000 116.667
1990 100000 35000 53.846
Given the following data, determine
the population in the year 2020 200+116.667+53.846
using geometric increase method. Ave. % inc. =
3
Year Population Ave. % inc. =123.504%
1960 10000 2020 − 1990
1970 30000 𝑛= =3
10
1980 65000
1990 100000
3
123.504
𝑖
𝑛 𝑃 = 100000 1 +
𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜 1+ 100
100 P=1116498
DESIGN POPULATION
A growing city had a population of 500000 in
2005. In 2010, the population was 760000.
Determining Growth Rate and Assume exponential growth. Predict the
Projecting Population population in 2025.

3. Exponential Increase Method

-This method is based upon the
assumption that the instantaneous
rate of change of a population with
respect to time is proportional to
the population itself.

𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜 𝑒 𝑘𝑡
DESIGN POPULATION
A growing city had a population of 500000 in
2005. In 2010, the population was 760000.
Determining Growth Rate and Assume exponential growth. Predict the
Projecting Population population in 2025.

3. Exponential Increase Method

-This method is based upon the
assumption that the instantaneous
rate of change of a population with
respect to time is proportional to
the population itself.

𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜 𝑒 𝑘𝑡
DESIGN POPULATION
A growing city had a population of 500000 in
2005. In 2010, the population was 760000.
Determining Growth Rate and Assume exponential growth. Predict the
Projecting Population population in 2025.

3. Exponential Increase Method

-This method is based upon the
assumption that the instantaneous
rate of change of a population with
respect to time is proportional to
the population itself.

𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜 𝑒 𝑘𝑡
DESIGN POPULATION

Projecting the Population Served

1. Preparation of Base Maps

2. Ocular inspection
3. Delineation of the proposed service area
4. Determination and assessment of the level of acceptance by the residents
of the planned water system
5. Assessment of the availability and abundance/scarcity of alternative water
sources
WATER CONSUMPTIONS

Unit Consumption for domestic water demand is expressed in per capita

consumption per day (usually liters per capita per day or lpcd)

Recommended unit consumption assumptions:

• Level II Public Faucets: 50-60 lpcd (each faucet serves 4-6 households)
• Level III House Connections: 80-100 lpcd
• Institutional Connections: 1.0 m3/day
• Commercial Connections: 0.8 m3 /day
WATER CONSUMPTIONS

Total Consumption is the sum of the domestic, institutional and commercial

consumptions expressed in m3/d.

a. Domestic Consumption
-The year-by-year total domestic consumption is projected by applying the projected
unit consumption to the projected population to be served for each year
✓Note: In anticipation of the trend towards upgrading to Level III in the future, the
Level II system planner should assume that within 5 years, 90% of the households
served would opt for individual house connections.

b. Institutional and Commercial Consumption

NONREVENUE WATER

Non-revenue water is the amount of water that is produced but not billed as a
result of leaks, pilferages, free water, utility usages, etc.

-This should be considered in the estimation of the capacity of the water supply
system.
-An assumption of 15% NRW can be used for a new system. This can be
increased up to a total of 20% at the end of 10 years.
WATER DEMAND

The water demand is a summation of all the consumptions given in the

preceding sections and will determine the capacity needed from the source/s.

The average daily water demand, also known as the Average Day Demand
(ADD), is calculated (in m3/day or lps) from the estimated water consumptions
and the allowance for the NRW (expressed as a percentage).
 WATER DEMAND

Demand Variations and Demand Factors

Demand
Demand Parameter Description Uses
Factor
Average Day Demand 1.0 The average of the daily water To serve as basis for the annual
requirement spread in estimates and projections on
a year production, revenues, non-
revenue water, power costs, and
other O&M costs
Minimum Day Demand 0.3ADD The minimum amount of water To check on possible occurrence
required in a single of excessive static pressures that
day over a year the system might not be able to
withstand. (No point in the
transmission and distribution
system should be subjected to
pressure more than 70 m.)
 WATER DEMAND

Demand Variations and Demand Factors

Demand
Demand Parameter Description Uses
Factor
Maximum Day Demand 1.3ADD The maximum amount of water The total capacity of all existing
required in a single and future water sources should
day over a year. be capable of supplying at least
this demand at any year during
the design period.
Peak Hour Demand 2.5ADD The highest hourly demand in a The pipeline network should be
(>1000 day designed to operate with at least 3
Connections) meters during peak hour conditions.
If there is no reservoir, the power
3.0ADD
ratings of pumping stations should be
(<1000 sufficient for the operation of the
Connections) facilities during peak hour demands.
 SAMPLE COMPUTATION for the ADD in
Year 0

SAMPLE COMPUTATION

• Given the following data: Po =

2000, P10 = 3000, Persons per HH
= 5. Determine the required source
capacity for a well operating 18
hrs./day for a Level II system.
Assume 15% NRW.
SAMPLE COMPUTATION

• Given the following data: Po =

2000, P10 = 3000, Persons per HH
= 5. Determine the required source
capacity for a well operating 18
hrs./day for a Level II system.
Assume 15% NRW.
SAMPLE COMPUTATION

• Given the following data: Po =

2000, P10 = 3000, Persons per HH
= 5. Determine the required source
capacity for a well operating 18
hrs./day for a Level II system.
Assume 15% NRW.
SAMPLE COMPUTATION

• Given the following data: Po =

2000, P10 = 3000, Persons per HH
= 5. Determine the required source
capacity for a well operating 18
hrs./day for a Level II system.
Assume 15% NRW.
SAMPLE COMPUTATION

• Given the following data: Po =

2000, P10 = 3000, Persons per HH
= 5. Determine the required source
capacity for a well operating 18
hrs./day for a Level II system.
Assume 15% NRW.
SAMPLE COMPUTATION

• Given the following data: Po =

2000, P10 = 3000, Persons per HH
= 5. Determine the required source
capacity for a well operating 18
hrs./day for a Level II system.
Assume 15% NRW.