Introduction to Probability

Theory
and
Stochastic Processes

UNIT – 1

Basic Probability

Prepared By
Ms. Mansi Hedav

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 UNIT-1 Basic Probability

1.1 Basic Definitions:

Random Experiment, Outcome, Trial, Event, Exhaustive Event,
Mutually Exclusive Event, Equally Likely Event, Independent
Events, Favorable Events.

1.2 Definitions of Probability: Classical & Axiomatic, Sample

Space, Theorems on Probability: De Morgan’s Laws, Addition
Theorem Examples

1.3 Conditional probability, Multiplicative Theorem for

Independent Events, Bayes' Theorem, Examples.

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 Definitions

1. Random Experiment

If an experiment is conducted, any number of times, under identical conditions, there is a set of all
possible outcomes associated with it. If the outcome is not unique but may be any one possible
outcome, the experiment is called a random experiment.

In other words, an experiment in which we know all the possible outcomes in advance but which of
them will occur is known only after the experiment is performed, is called a random experiment.

E.g., tossing a coin, throwing a dice.

2. Outcome

The result of a random experiment is called an outcome.

Examples:

(1) Random Experiment: “A coin is tossed”

This experiment gives two possible outcomes – Head or Tail.

(2) Random Experiment: “A dice is thrown”

This experiment gives six possible outcomes – 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 – on uppermost face of dice.

3. Sample Space

The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a sample space.

Examples:

(1) Random Experiment: “Toss a coin”

Outcomes – Head or Tail
Sample Space - {𝐻, 𝑇}

(2) Random Experiment: “Throw a dice”

Outcomes – 1,2,3,4,5 or 6
Sample Space - {1,2,3,4,5,6}

4. Trial and Event

Any particular performance of a random experiment is called a trial and outcome. A combination of
outcomes is called an event.

E.g.,

(1) Tossing of a coin is a trial, and getting a head or tail is an event.

(2) Throwing of a dice is a trial, and getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 is an event.

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5. Elementary events (Simple Event)

Let 𝑈 be a finite sample space. 𝑈 = {𝐴1, 𝐴2, 𝐴3, 𝐴4, . . . 𝐴𝑛}. The singleton {𝑥𝑖} of 𝑈 is called the
elementary event.

6. Impossible Event

The subset 𝜙 of the sample space 𝑈 is called impossible event.

7. Sure Event

The subset 𝑈 of the sample space 𝑈 is called certain event.

8. Complementary Events

The set consisting of all elements of the sample space 𝑈 other than the elements of 𝐴, is called the
complementary event of 𝐴.

9. Union of Events (𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩)

𝐴, 𝐵 ∈ 𝑃(𝑈). The set consisting of all the elements of the sample space 𝑈 which are in 𝐴 or in 𝐵 is
called the union of events 𝐴 and 𝐵. It is denoted by 𝐴 𝖴 𝐵.

𝑨 𝙐 𝑩 = {𝒙/𝒙 ∈ 𝑼, 𝒙 ∈ 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝒙 ∈ 𝑩}

10. Intersection of Events (𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩)

𝐴, 𝐵 ∈ 𝑃(𝑈). The set consisting of all the elements of the sample space 𝑈 which are in 𝐴 as well as
in 𝐵 is called the intersection of events 𝐴 and 𝐵. It is denoted by 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵.

𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = {𝒙/𝒙 ∈ 𝑼, 𝒙 ∈ 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒙 ∈ 𝑩}

11. Mutually Exclusive Events

𝐴, 𝐵 ∈ 𝑃(𝑈). Let 𝑈 be the sample space associated with a random experiment and let 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵
be two events. Then 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 are called mutually exclusive events if

𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝝓

E.g., (1) In tossing a coin, the events head or tail are mutually exclusive since both head and tail
cannot occur at the same time.

(2) In throwing a dice, all the six events, i.e., getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 are mutually
exclusive events.

12. Exhaustive Events

𝐴, 𝐵 ∈ 𝑃(𝑈). Let 𝑈 be the sample space associated with a random experiment and let 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵
be two events. Then 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 are called an exhaustive events if

𝑨𝙐𝑩 = 𝑼
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E.g., (1) In tossing of a coin, there are two exhaustive events, Head and tail.

(2) In throwing of a dice, there are six exhaustive events, getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6.

13. Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive Events

If for events A and B, 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = ∅ 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 = 𝑼 , then A and B are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive events.

14. Independent Events

Events are said to be independent if the occurrence of an event does not have any effect on the
occurrence of other events.

E.g., (1) In tossing a coin, the events head in the first toss is independent of getting a head in the
second, third and subsequent tosses.

(2) In throwing a dice, the result of the first throw does not affect the result of the second throw.

15. Favorable Events

The favorable events in a random experiment are the number of outcomes which entail the
occurrence of the event.

E.g., In throwing of two dice, the favorable events of getting the sum 5 is (1,4), (4,1), (2,3), (3,2),

i.e., 4.

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 Definitions of Probability
 Classical Definition of Probability
Let 𝑛 be the number of equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes of a random
experiment. Let 𝑚 be the number of favorable outcomes of an event 𝐴. The probability of event 𝐴
occurring, denoted by 𝑃(𝐴), is given by
Number of favourable outcomes 𝑚
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = =
Number of exhaustive outcomes 𝑛

 Axiomatic Definition of Probability

1. Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a sample space. Each element of
the set is called a sample point or a simple event or an elementary event. The sample space of random
experiment is denoted by S.
Examples:
1) Random experiment: Toss a coin
Outcomes: head or tail
Sample Space: {𝐻, 𝑇}
2) Random experiment: Throw a dice
Outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 𝑜𝑟 6
Sample Space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
2. Event
Any subset of a sample space is called an event.
E.g., Throwing of dice, the sample space is 𝑺 = {𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔}
Let A be the event that an odd number appears on the dice. Then 𝑨 = {𝟏, 𝟑, 𝟓}.
Let B be the event of getting a number greater than 3. Then 𝑩 = {𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔}.
Definition of Probability
Let 𝑆 be a sample space of an experiment and 𝐴 be any event of this sample space. The probability
𝑃(𝐴) of the event 𝐴 is defined as the real-value set function which associates a real value corresponding
to a subset 𝐴 of the sample space 𝑆. The probability 𝑃(𝐴) satisfies the following three axioms.

Axiom I: 𝑃(𝐴) ≥ 0, i.e., the probability of an event is a nonnegative number.

Axiom II: 𝑃(𝑆) = 1, i.e., the probability of an event that is certain to occur must be equal to unity.

Axiom III: If 𝐴1, 𝐴2, … , 𝐴𝑛 are finite mutually exclusive events then
𝑃(𝐴1 𝖴 𝐴2 𝖴 … 𝖴 𝐴𝑛) = 𝑃(𝐴1) + 𝑃(𝐴2) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴𝑛)
𝑛

= ∑ 𝑃 (𝐴 𝑖 )
𝑖=1

i.e., the probability of a union of mutually exclusive events is the sum of probabilities of the
events themselves.

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Example – 1

Three unbiased coins are tossed. Find the probability of getting (𝑖) exactly two heads, (𝑖𝑖) at least
one tail, (𝑖𝑖𝑖) at most two heads. (𝑖𝑣) a head on the second coin and (𝑣) exactly two heads in
succession.

Solution:
Let us toss three coins. Then the sample space 𝑆 is given by
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇. 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇}
𝑛(𝑆) = 8
(i) Let 𝐴 be the event of getting exactly two heads.
𝐴 = {𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇}
𝑛 (𝐴 ) = 3
𝑛(𝐴) 3
P(A) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 8
(ii) Let 𝐵 be the event of getting at least one tail.
𝐵 = {𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇}
𝑛 (𝐵 ) = 7
𝑛(𝐵) 7
P(B) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 8
(iii) Let 𝐶 be the event of getting at most two heads.
𝐶 = {𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇}
𝑛 (𝐶 ) = 7
𝑛(𝐶) 7
P(C) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 8
(iv) Let 𝐷 be the event of getting a head on the second coin.
𝐷 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇}
𝑛 (𝐷 ) = 4
𝑛(𝐷) 4 1
P(D) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 8 2
(v) Let 𝐸 be the event of getting exactly two heads in succession.
𝐸 = { 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇}
𝑛 (𝐸 ) = 2
𝑛(𝐸) 2 1
P(E) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 8 4
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Example – 2
A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of (𝑖) getting a king
card, (𝑖𝑖) getting a face card, (𝑖𝑖𝑖) getting a red card, (𝑖𝑣) getting a card between 2 and 7, both
inclusive and (𝑣) getting a card between 2 and 8, both exclusive.

Solution:
Total number of cards = 52
One card out of 52 cards can be drawn in ways.
𝑛(𝑆) = 52𝐶1 = 52

(i) Let 𝐴 be the event of getting a king card.

There are 4 king cards and one of them, can be drawn in 4𝐶1 ways.
1
𝑛(𝐴) = 4𝐶1 = 4
𝑛(𝐴) 4 1
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52 13
(ii) Let 𝐵 be the event of getting a face card.
12
There are 12 face cards and one of them can be drawn in 𝐶1 ways.
1
𝑛(𝐵) = 12𝐶1 = 12
𝑛(𝐵) 12 3
𝑃 (𝐵 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52 13
(iii) Let 𝐶 be the event of getting a red card.
26
There are 26 red cards and one of them can be drawn in 𝐶1 ways.
1
𝑛(𝐶 ) = 26𝐶1 = 26
𝑛(𝐶) 26 1
𝑃 (𝐶 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52 2
(iv) Let 𝐷 be the event of getting a card between 2 and 7, both inclusive.
There are 6 such cards in each suit giving total 6 × 4 = 24 cards. One of them can be drawn
in 24𝐶1 ways.
𝑛(𝐷) = 24𝐶1 = 24
𝑛(𝐷) 24 6
𝑃 (𝐷 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52 13
(v) Let 𝐸 be the event of getting a card between 2 and 8, both exclusive.
There are 5 such cards in each suit giving total 5 × 4 = 20 cards.
One of them can be drawn in 20𝐶1 ways.
𝑛(𝐸 ) = 20𝐶1 = 20
𝑛(𝐸) 20 5
𝑃 (𝐸 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52 13
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Example – 3
A bag contains 2 black, 3 red and 5 blue balls. Three balls are drawn at random. Find the
probability that the three balls (𝑖) are blue, (𝑖𝑖) consists of 2 blue and 1 red, and (𝑖𝑖𝑖) consists of
exactly one black ball.

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Solution:
Total number of balls = 10
3 balls out of 10 balls can be drawn in 10𝐶3 ways.
𝑛(𝑆) = 10𝐶3 = 120
(i) Let 𝐴 be the event that the three balls drawn are blue.
3 blue balls out of 5 blue balls can be drawn in 5𝐶3 ways.
𝑛(𝐴) = 5𝐶3 = 10
𝑛(𝐴) 10 1
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 120 12
(ii) Let 𝐵 be the event that the three balls drawn consists of 2 blue and 1 red ball.
2 blue balls out of 5 blue balls can be drawn in 5𝐶3 ways.
1 red ball out of 3 red balls can be drawn in 3𝐶1 ways.
𝑛(𝐵) = 5𝐶3 × 3𝐶1 = 30

𝑛(𝐵) 30 1
𝑃 (𝐵 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 120 4
(iii) Let 𝐶 be the event that three balls drawn consist of exactly one black ball, i.e., remaining
two balls can be drawn from 3 red and 5 blue balls.
2
One black ball can be drawn from 2 black balls in 𝐶1 ways and remaining 2 balls can be drawn
8
from 8 balls in 𝐶2 ways.
𝑛(𝐶 ) = 2𝐶1 × 8𝐶2 = 56
𝑛(𝐶) 56 7
𝑃 (𝐶 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 120 15
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Example – 4
From a collection of 10 blubs of which 4 are defective, 3 bulbs are selected at random and fitted
into lamps. Find the probability that (𝑖) all the three bulbs glow, and (𝑖𝑖) the room is lit.

Solution:
Total number of bulbs = 10
10
3 bulbs can be selected from 10 bulbs in 𝐶3 ways.
𝑛(𝑆) = 10𝐶3 = 120
(i) Let 𝐴 be the event that all three bulbs glow. This event will occur when 3 bulbs are selected
from 6 non defective bulbs in 6𝐶3 ways.
𝑛(𝐴) = 6𝐶3 = 20
𝑛(𝐴) 20 1
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 120 6
(ii) Let B be the event that the room is lit. Let 𝐵̅ be the event that the room is dark.
The event 𝐵̅ will occur when 3 bulbs are selected from 4 defective bulbs in 4𝐶3 ways.
𝑛(𝐵̅ ) = 4𝐶3 = 4

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 𝑛(𝐵̅ ) 4 1
𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 120 30
1 29
∴ 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = 1 − =
30 30
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Example – 5
What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will have 53 Sundays?

Solution:
A leap year has 366 days, i.e., 52 weeks and 2 days. These 2 days can occur in the following
possible ways:

(1) Monday and Tuesday (2) Tuesday and Wednesday

(3) Wednesday and Thursday (4) Thursday and Friday
(5) Friday and Saturday (6) Saturday and Sunday
(7) Sunday and Monday
Number of exhaustive cases 𝑛 = 7
Number of favorable cases 𝑚 = 2
Let 𝐴 be the event of getting 53 Sundays in a leap year.
𝑚 2
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = =
𝑛 7
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Example – 6

Four letters of the word “THURSDAY” are arranged in all possible ways. Find the probability
that the word formed is “HURT”.

Solution:
Total number of letters in the word “THURSDAY” = 8
Four letters from 8 letters can be arranged in 𝟖𝑷𝟒 ways.
𝒏(𝑺) = 𝟖𝑷𝟒 = 𝟏𝟔𝟖𝟎
Let A be the event that the word formed is “HURT”. The word “HURT” can be formed in one
way only.
𝒏(𝑨) = 𝟏
𝒏(𝑨) 𝟏
𝑷(𝑨) = =
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟏𝟔𝟖𝟎
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 7

A bag contains 5 red, 4 blue and m green balls. If probability of getting two green balls when two
1
balls are selected at random is 7, Find m.

Solution:
Total number of balls = 𝟓 + 𝟒 + 𝒎 = 𝟗 + 𝒎
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2 balls out of 𝟗 + 𝒎 balls can be drawn in 𝟗+𝒎𝑪𝟐 ways.
𝒏(𝑺) = 𝟗+𝒎𝑪𝟐
Let A be the event that both the balls drawn are green.
2 green balls out of m green balls can be drawn in 𝒎𝑪𝟐 ways.
𝒏(𝑨) = 𝒎𝑪𝟐
𝒎
𝒏(𝑨) 𝑪𝟐
𝑷(𝑨) = = 𝟗+𝒎
𝒏(𝑺) 𝑪𝟐
𝟏
But 𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟕 given

𝒎
𝑪𝟐 𝟏
𝟗+𝒎
=
𝑪𝟐 𝟕

𝒎(𝒎 − 𝟏) 𝟏
=
(𝒎 + 𝟗)(𝒎 + 𝟖) 𝟕
(𝒎 + 𝟗)(𝒎 + 𝟖) = 𝟕𝒎(𝒎 − 𝟏)
𝒎𝟐 + 𝟏𝟕𝒎 + 𝟕𝟐 = 𝟕𝒎𝟐 − 𝟕𝒎
𝟔𝒎𝟐 − 𝟐𝟒𝒎 − 𝟕𝟐 = 𝟎
𝒎𝟐 − 𝟒𝒎 − 𝟏𝟐 = 𝟎
(𝒎 − 𝟔)(𝒎 + 𝟐) = 𝟎
𝒎 − 𝟔 = 𝟎 𝒐𝒓 𝒎 + 𝟐 = 𝟎
𝒎 = 𝟔 𝒐𝒓 𝒎 = −𝟐
But 𝒎 ≠ 𝟐
∴𝒎=𝟔
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 8

A class consists of 6 girls and 10 boys. If a committee of three is chosen at random from the class.
Find the probability that (i) three boys are selected, and (ii) exactly two girls are selected.

Solution:
Total number of Students = 𝟔 + 𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏𝟔
𝟏𝟔
A committee of 3 students from 16 students can be selected in 𝑪𝟑 ways.
𝒏(𝑺) = 𝟏𝟔𝑪𝟑 = 𝟓𝟔𝟎
(i) Let A be the event that 3 boys are selected.
𝒏(𝑨) = 𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟑 = 𝟏𝟐𝟎

𝒏(𝑨) 𝟏𝟐𝟎 𝟑
𝑷(𝑨) = = =
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟓𝟔𝟎 𝟏𝟒

(ii) Let B be the event that exactly 2 girls are selected.

2 girls from 6 girls can be selected in 𝟔𝑪𝟐 ways and one boy from 10 boys can be selected in
𝟏𝟎
𝑪𝟏 ways.
𝒏(𝑩) = 𝟔𝑪𝟐 × 𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟏 = 𝟏𝟓𝟎
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 𝒏(𝑩) 𝟏𝟓𝟎 𝟏𝟓
𝑷(𝑩) = = =
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟓𝟔𝟎 𝟓𝟔
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 9

Four cards are drawn from a pack of cards. Find the probability that (i) all are diamonds, (ii) there
is one card of each suit and (iii) there are two spades and two hearts.

Solution:
Total number of cards = 𝟓𝟐
4 cards out of 52 cards can be drawn in 𝟓𝟐𝑪𝟒 ways.
𝒏(𝑺) = 𝟓𝟐𝑪𝟒 = 𝟐𝟕𝟎𝟕𝟐𝟓

(i) Let A be the event of getting all diamonds cards.

𝒏(𝑨) = 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟒 = 𝟕𝟏𝟓

𝒏(𝑨) 𝟕𝟏𝟓 𝟏𝟏
𝑷(𝑨) = = = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟔
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟐𝟕𝟎𝟕𝟐𝟓 𝟒𝟏𝟔𝟓

(ii) Let B be the event of getting one card of each suit.

𝒏(𝑩) = 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟏 × 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟏 × 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟏 × 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟏 = 𝟐𝟖𝟓𝟔𝟏

𝒏(𝑩) 𝟐𝟖𝟓𝟔𝟏 𝟐𝟏𝟗𝟕

𝑷(𝑩) = = = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟓
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟐𝟕𝟎𝟕𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟎𝟖𝟐𝟓

(iii) Let C be the event of getting two spades and two hearts.
𝒏(𝑪) = 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟐 × 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟐 = 𝟔𝟎𝟖𝟒

𝒏(𝑪) 𝟔𝟎𝟖𝟒 𝟒𝟔𝟖

𝑷(𝑪) = = = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟐𝟓
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟐𝟕𝟎𝟕𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟎𝟖𝟐𝟓

____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 10

If the letters of the word REGULATIONS are arranged at random, what is the probability that
there will be exactly four letters between R and E?

Solution:
The word ‘REGULATIONS’ has 11 letters, which can be arranged in 𝟏𝟏𝑷𝟏𝟏 = 𝟏𝟏! ways.
𝒏(𝑺) = 𝟏𝟏!
Let A be the event that exactly 4 letters are arranged between R and E.
If there are exactly 4 letters between R and E will occupy any of the following 6 positions.
(𝟏, 𝟔), (𝟐, 𝟕), (𝟑, 𝟖), (𝟒, 𝟗), (𝟓, 𝟏𝟎), (𝟔, 𝟏𝟏)
Now R and E can be arranged among themselves in 𝟐𝑷𝟐 = 𝟐! ways.
The remaining 9 letters can be arranged in 𝟗𝑷𝟗 = 𝟗! ways.
𝒏(𝑨) = 𝟔 × 𝟐! × 𝟗!
Page | 12
 𝒏(𝑨) 𝟔 × 𝟐! × 𝟗! 𝟔
𝑷(𝑨) = = =
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟏𝟏! 𝟓𝟓
____________________________________________________________________________

Example – 11

3 books of physics, 4 books of chemistry and 5 books of mathematics are arranged in a shelf. Find
the probability that (i) no physics books are together, (ii) chemistry books are always together and
(iii) books of same subjects are together.

Solution:
Total number of books = 𝟑 + 𝟒 + 𝟓 = 𝟏𝟐
12 books can be arranged in 𝟏𝟐𝑷𝟏𝟐 = 𝟏𝟐! ways.
𝒏(𝑺) = 𝟏𝟐!
(i) For Example: (_C_C_C_C_M_M_M_M_M)
Let A be the event in which no physics books are together.
3 physics books can be arranged in 𝟏𝟎𝑷𝟑 ways.
For remaining books of chemistry and mathematics can be arranged in 𝟗𝑷𝟗 = 𝟗! ways.
𝒏(𝑨) = 𝟏𝟎𝑷𝟑 × 𝟗𝑷𝟗
∴ Probability that no physics books are together:
𝟏𝟎
𝒏(𝑨) 𝑷𝟑 × 𝟗𝑷𝟗 𝟔
𝑷(𝑨) = = =
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟏𝟐! 𝟏𝟏

(ii) For Example: CCCC MMMMM PPP

Let B be the event in which chemistry books are always together.
Now, if we want to keep chemistry books together, then consider it as 1 group.
Total books are 5 mathematics books, 3 physics books and 1 chemistry group
= 𝟓 + 𝟒 + 𝟏 = 𝟗 books are arranged in 𝟗𝑷𝟗 = 𝟗! ways.
Further, in a group of Chemistry books 4 can be arranged among themselves in = 𝟒! ways
∴ Probability that chemistry books are always together:
𝒏(𝑩) 𝟗! × 𝟒! 𝟏
𝑷(𝑩) = = =
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟏𝟐! 𝟓𝟓

(iii) For Example: CCCC MMMMM PPP

Let C be the event in which books of same subjects are together.
Now, if we want to keep same subjects’ books together, then consider a books of one subject as
a group.
Then 3 groups (3 physics books, 4 chemistry books, 5 mathematics books)
Number of ways can be arranged in = 𝟑! ways.
Further,
3 Physics books can be arranged among themselves in = 𝟑! ways
4 Chemistry books can be arranged among themselves in = 𝟒! ways
5 Mathematics books can be arranged among themselves in = 𝟓! ways

∴ Probability that books of same subjects are together:

Page | 13
 𝒏(𝑪) 𝟑! × 𝟑! × 𝟒! × 𝟓! 𝟏
𝑷(𝑪) = = =
𝒏(𝑺) 𝟏𝟐! 𝟒𝟔𝟐𝟎

____________________________________________________________________________

Page | 14
 Theorems on Probability
1. The probability of an impossible event is zero. i.e., 𝑃(∅) = 0, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 ∅ 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑡.

2. The probability of the complementary even 𝐴̅ 𝑜𝑓 𝐴 is 𝑃 (𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴).

3. Probability of an event is always less than or equal to one. i.e., 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1.

4. De Morgan’s Laws
𝑃(̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅)
𝑃 (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅ )
5. For any two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 in a sample space 𝑆,
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃 (𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

6. Additive Law of Probability (Addition Theorem)

The probability that at least one of the events A and B will occur is given by:
𝑃 (𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) − 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )
If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive events, i.e., 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅ 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0
𝑃 (𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 )
7. 𝑃(𝐴 𝘜 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅)
where 𝑃 (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅) is the probability that none of the events 𝐴 and 𝐵 occur simultaneously.
8. 𝑃(𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠) = 𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅) 𝘜 (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃 (𝐴 𝘜 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
9. If 𝐴, 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 C are three events of a sample space 𝑆 then the probability of occurrence of at least
one of them is given by
𝑃 (𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 𝘜 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃 (𝐶 ) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) − 𝑃 (𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
Alternately, the probability of occurrence of at least one of the three events can also be written as
𝑃(𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 𝘜 𝐶 ) = 1 – 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ∩ 𝐶̅)
If 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are mutually exclusive events,
𝑃 (𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 𝘜 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) + 𝑃 (𝐶 )

Page | 15
10. The probability of occurrence of at least two of the three events is given by

𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)𝘜 (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 )𝘜 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 )]
= 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ) − 2𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
11. The probability of occurrence of exactly two of the three events is given by
𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶̅) 𝘜 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ∩ 𝐶 ) 𝘜 (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 )]
= 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) + 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) − 3𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
12. The probability of occurrence of exactly one of the three events is given by
𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ∩ 𝐶̅) 𝘜 (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶̅) 𝘜 (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ∩ 𝐶 )]
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶 ) − 2𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 2𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) − 2𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) + 3𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 )
13. If A and B are two independent events, then the probability of their simultaneous
occurrence 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)

NOTE: (Odds in favor and Odds against)

𝑛(𝐴)
For any event A, 𝑛(𝐴̅) is called the odds in favour of the event A.
𝑛(𝐴) 𝑎
Now if 𝑛(𝐴̅) = 𝑏 then
𝑛(𝐴)
𝑛 (𝑆 ) 𝑎 𝑃 (𝐴 ) 𝑎 𝑃 (𝐴 ) 𝑎 𝑎
= ⟹ = ⟹ = ⟹ 𝑃 (𝐴 ) =
𝑛(𝐴̅) 𝑏 𝑃(𝐴̅) 𝑏 1 − 𝑃 (𝐴 ) 𝑏 𝑎+𝑏
𝑛(𝑆)
Similarly,

Page | 16
Example – 1
A box contains 4 white, 6 red, 5 black balls, and 5 balls of other colors. Two balls are drawn from
the box at random. Find the probability that (i) both are white or both are red, and (ii) both are
red or both are black.

Solution:
Let 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 be the events of drawing white, red and black balls from the box respectively.
4
𝐶2 3
𝑃(𝐴) = 20 =
𝐶2 95
6
𝐶2 3
𝑃(𝐵) = 20 =
𝐶2 38
5
𝐶2 1
𝑃(𝐶) = 20 =
𝐶2 19

(i) Probability that the both balls are white or both are red
𝑃 (𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) − 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )
3 3
= + −0
95 38
21
=
190
(ii) Probability that the both balls are red or both are black
𝑃 (𝐵 𝘜 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐵) + 𝑃 (𝐶 ) − 𝑃 (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 )
3 1
= + −0
38 19
5
=
38
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Example – 2
Three students 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 are in a running race. 𝐴 and 𝐵 have the same probability of winning and
each is twice as likely to win as 𝐶. Find the probability that 𝐵 or 𝐶 wins.

Solution:
Let 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 be the events that students 𝐴, 𝐵 and C win the race respectively.
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = 2𝑃(𝐶)
∴ 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) + 𝑃 (𝐶 ) = 1
∴ 2𝑃(𝐶 ) + 2𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐶 ) = 1
Page | 17
 1
∴ P(C) =
5
2 2
∴ P(A) = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 P(B) =
5 5
Probability that student 𝐵 or 𝐶 wins
𝑃 (𝐵 𝘜 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐵 ) + 𝑃 (𝐶 ) − 𝑃 (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 )
2 1 3
= + −0=
5 5 5
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 3
A problem in statistics is given to three students 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶, whose chances of solving are
1 3 1
, 4 𝑎𝑛𝑑 respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be solved if all of them try
2 4
independently?

Solution:
Let 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 be the events that students 𝐴, 𝐵 and C solve the problem respectively.
1 3 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐵 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐶 ) =
2 4 4
Events A, B and C are independent.
Probability that the problem is solved
𝑃 (𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 𝘜 𝐶 )
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶 ) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃 (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) − 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶
1 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 1
= + + − ( ∙ )− ( ∙ )−( ∙ )+ ( ∙ ∙ )
2 4 4 2 4 4 4 2 4 2 4 4
3 3 3 1 3
= − − − +
2 8 16 8 32
29
=
32
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 4
From the employees of a company 5 persons are selected to represent them in the managing
committee of the company. Particular of five persons are as follows:

Sr. No. Name Sex Age in years

1 Harish M 30
2 Rohan M 33
3 Sheetal F 46
4 Alis F 28
5 Salim M 41

A person is selected at random from this group to act as a spokesperson what is the probability
that the spokesperson will be either male or over 35 years?

Page | 18
Solution:
Let E be the event in which the spokesperson will be a male and F be the event in which the
spokesperson will be over 35 years of age respectively.
3 2 1
𝑃 (𝐸 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐹 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) =
5 5 5
𝑃 (𝐸 𝘜 𝐹 ) = 𝑃 (𝐸 ) + 𝑃 (𝐹 ) − 𝑃 (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 )
3 2 1
= + −
5 5 5
4
=
5
4
Thus, the probability that the spokesperson will either be a male or over 35 years of age is .
5
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 5
1 1
Probability of solving specific problem independently by A and B are 𝑎𝑛𝑑 respectively. If
2 3
both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability (i) the problem is solved (ii)
exactly one of them solve the problem.

Solution:
Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be the events that students 𝐴 and B solve the problem respectively.
1 1
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐵 ) =
2 3
Events A and B are independent.
(i) Probability that problem is solved
𝑃 (𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) − 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
1 1 1 1
= + − ( ∙ )
2 3 2 3
5 1
= −
6 6
2
=
3
(ii) Probability that exactly one of them solves the problem
𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅) ∪ (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)] = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) − 𝑃( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= [𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃 (𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)] − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 2𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 2(𝑃 (𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵))
1 1 1 1
= + −2 ( ∙ )
2 3 2 3
5 2
= −
6 6
1
=
2
Page | 19
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Example – 6
The probabilities that a student will solve Question A and Question B are 0.4 and 0.5 respectively.
What is the probability that he solves atleast one of the two questions?

Solution:
Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be the events that student solves Question 𝐴 and Question B respectively.
𝑃 (𝐴) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.5
Probability that student not solve Question 𝐴 and Question B we have,
𝑃( 𝐴̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐴) = 1 − 0.4 = 0.6
𝑃( 𝐵̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5
Probability that student solve atleast one of the two questions:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃( 𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅)
= 1 − [𝑃(𝐴̅) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵̅)]
= 1 − [(0.6) ∙ (0.5)]
= 1 − 0.3
= 0.7
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 7
A person applies for a job in two firms A and B, the probabilities of his being selected in the firm
A is 0.7 and being rejected in the firm B is 0.5. The probability of atleast one of the applications
being rejected is 0.6. What is the probability that he will be selected in one of the two firms?

Solution:
Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be the events that person is selected in firms A and B respectively.
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.7, 𝑃 (𝐵̅) = 0.5, 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅) = 0.6
𝑃( 𝐴̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐴) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃 (𝐴̅) + 𝑃(𝐵̅) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅)
Probability that the person will be selected in one of the two firms:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃( 𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅)
= 1 − [𝑃(𝐴̅) + 𝑃 (𝐵̅) − 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅ )]
= 1 − [ 0.3 + 0.5 − 0.6]
= 1 − 0.2
= 0.8
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Example – 8
In a group of 1000 persons, there are 650 who can Hindi, 400 can speak English and 150 can speak
both Hind and English. If a person is selected at random, what is the probability that he speaks (i)

Page | 20
Hindi only, (ii) English only, (iii) only of the two languages and (iv) atleast one of the two
languages?

Solution:
Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be the events that a person is selected at random speaks Hindi and English
respectively.
650 400 150
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐵 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) =
1000 1000 1000
(i) Probability that a person selected at random speaks Hindi only
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
650 150
= −
1000 1000
1
=
2
(ii) Probability that a person selected at random speaks English only
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
400 150
= −
1000 1000
1
=
4
(iii) Probability that a person selected at random speaks only one of the languages.
𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅) ∪ (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)] = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃 (𝐵) − 2𝑃( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
650 400 150
= + − 2( )
1000 1000 1000
3
=
4
(iv) Probability that a person selected at random speaks atleast one of the two languages.
𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )
650 400 150
= + −
1000 1000 1000
9
=
10
____________________________________________________________________________

Page | 21
 Conditional Probability
For any two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 in a sample space 𝑆, the probability of their simultaneous occurrence,
i.e., both the events occurring simultaneously is given by
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) ⇒ 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
Or 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)
where, 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴) is the conditional probability of 𝐵 given that 𝐴 has already occurred.
𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) is the conditional probability of 𝐴 given that 𝐵 has already occurred.

 Multiplicative Theorem for Independent Events

If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events, the probability of their simultaneous occurrence is given
by
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
Corollary 1: If 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are independent events,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶)
Corollary 2: If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent events then 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵̅, 𝐴̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵, 𝐴̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵̅ are also
independent.

Corollary 3: The probability of occurrence of at least one of the events 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 is given by

𝑃(𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 𝘜 𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ∩ 𝐶̅ )
If 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are independent events, their complements will also be independent.
𝑃(𝐴 𝘜 𝐵 𝘜 𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴̅) 𝑃(𝐵̅) 𝑃(𝐶̅ )

 Pairwise Independence and Mutual Independence

The events 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are mutually independent if the following conditions are satisfied
simultaneously:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶)
And 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶)
If the last condition is not satisfied, the events are said to be pairwise independent.
Hence, mutually independent events are always pairwise independent but not vice versa.

Page | 22
Example – 1
𝟐
̅ ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟏 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟏,
If A and B are two events such that 𝑷(𝑨) = , 𝑷(𝑨
𝟑 𝟔 𝟑

find 𝑷(𝑩), 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩), 𝑷(𝑨⁄𝑩), 𝑷(𝑩⁄𝑨), 𝑷(𝑨 ̅ ∪ 𝑩)𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑷(𝑩 ̅ ). Also examine whether the events
A and B are (i) equally likely, (ii) exhaustive, (iii) mutually exclusive and (iv) independent.

Solution:
𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
̅ ∩ 𝑩) + 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) =
𝑷(𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨 + =
𝟔 𝟑 𝟐
𝟐 𝟏 𝟏 𝟓
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = + − =
𝟑 𝟐 𝟑 𝟔
𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) 1⁄ 2
𝑃 (𝐴 ⁄𝐵 ) = = 3=
𝑃(𝐵) 1⁄ 3
2
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 1⁄3 1
𝑃 (𝐵 ⁄𝐴 ) = = =
𝑃(𝐴) 2⁄ 2
3
1 1 1 2
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴̅) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃 (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵) = + − =
3 2 6 3
5 1
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − =
6 6
1 1
𝑃(𝐵̅) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐵) = 1 − =
2 2
(i) Since 𝑃 (𝐴) ≠ 𝑃(𝐵), A and B are not equally like events.
(ii) Since 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ≠ 1, A and B are not exhaustive events.
(iii) Since 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≠ 0, A and B are not mutually exclusive events.
(iv) Since 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵), A and B are independent events.
_________________________________________________________________
Example – 2
𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
If A and B are two events with 𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟑 , 𝑷(𝑩) = 𝟒 , 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟏𝟐.
̅ ) 𝒂𝒏𝒅 (𝒊𝒗) 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩
Find (𝒊) 𝑷(𝑨⁄𝑩), (𝒊𝒊) 𝑷(𝑩⁄𝑨), (𝒊𝒊𝒊) 𝑷(𝑩⁄𝑨 ̅ ).

Solution:
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 1⁄ 1
12
(i) 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) = =1⁄ = 3
𝑃(𝐵) 4
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 1⁄ 1
(ii) 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = = 1⁄12 = 4
𝑃(𝐴) 3
1 1
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴̅) 𝑃(𝐵)−𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴) − 1
(iii) 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴̅) = 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1−𝑃(𝐴) = 4 12
1 =4
1−
3
1 1 1
(iv) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃 (𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 3 − 12 = 4
____________________________________________________________________________
Page | 23
Example – 3
Find the probability of drawing a queen and a king from a pack of cards in two consecutive draws,
the cards drawn not being replaced.

Solution:
Let A be the event that the card drawn is a queen.
𝟒
𝑪𝟏 𝟒 𝟏
( )
𝑷 𝑨 = 𝟓𝟐 = =
𝑪𝟏 𝟓𝟐 𝟏𝟑
Let B be the event that cards drawn are a king in the second draw given that first card drawn is a
queen.
𝟒
𝑪𝟏 𝟒
𝑷(𝑩⁄𝑨) = 𝟓𝟏 =
𝑪𝟏 𝟓𝟏
Probability that the cards drawn are a queen and a king
𝟒 𝟒 𝟒
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨)𝑷(𝑩⁄𝑨) = × =
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟏 𝟔𝟔𝟑
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 4
𝟕
From a city population, the probability of selecting (𝑎) a male or a smoker is , (b) a male
𝟏𝟎
𝟐 𝟐
smoker is and (c) a male, if a smoker is already selected, is .Find the probability of selecting
𝟓 𝟑
(i) a non smoker, (ii) a male and (iii) a smoker, if a male is first selected.

Solution:
Let A be the event that a male is selected. Let B be the event that a smoker is selected.
7 2 2
𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = , 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) =
10 5 3
(i) Probability of selecting a non smoker
𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) 2⁄ 2
𝑃(𝐵̅) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐵) = 1 − =1− 5=
𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) 2⁄ 5
3
2 3
(ii) 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵̅) = 1 − =
5 5
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Probability of selecting a male
7 2 3 1
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) + 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) − 𝑃 (𝐵 ) = + − =
10 5 5 2
(iii) Probability of selecting a smoker if a male is first selected
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 2⁄5 4
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = = =
𝑃 (𝐴 ) 1⁄ 5
2
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 5
In a box, 100 bulbs are supplied out of which 10 bulbs have defects of type A, 5 bulbs have defects
of type B and 2 have defects pf both types. Find the probabilities that a bulb to be drawn at random
has a B type defect under the condition that it has an A type defect.
Page | 24
Solution:
Let A and B be events that bulbs have defect of type A and B respectively.
10 5 2
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = = 0.1, 𝑃(𝐵) = = 0.05, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = = 0.02
100 100 100
Probability that a bulb to be drawn at random has a B type defect under the condition that it has
an A type defect.
𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 0.02
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = = = 0.2
𝑃 (𝐴 ) 0.1
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 6
An urn contains 10 red, 5 white and 5 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random. Find
theprobability that they are not of same color.

Solution:
Let 𝐴, 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶 be the events that two balls drawn at random be of same color, i.e., red, white
and blue respectively.
10
𝐶2 9
( )
𝑃 𝐴 = 20 =
𝐶2 38
5
𝐶2 1
𝑃 (𝐵 ) = 20 =
𝐶2 19
5
𝐶2 1
𝑃 (𝐶 ) = 20 =
𝐶2 19
Here, events A, B and C are independent.
Probability that both balls drawn are of same color:
9 1 1 13
𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) + 𝑃 (𝐶 ) = + + =
38 19 19 38
Probability that both balls drawn are not of same color:
13 25
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ∩ 𝐶̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 1 − =
38 38
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 7
A person 𝐴 is known to hit a target in 3 out of 4 shots, whereas another person 𝐵 is known to hit
the same target in 2 out of 3 shots. Find the probability of the target being hit at all when they
both try.

Solution:
Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be the events that the persons 𝐴 and 𝐵 hit the target respectively.
3 2
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐵 ) =
4 3
Events A and B are independent.
𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )
= 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 (𝐵 )
3 2 3 2
= + − ×
4 3 4 3
Page | 25
 11
=
12
_________________________________________________________________
Example – 8
There are two bags. The first contains 2 red and 1 white ball, whereas the second bag has only
1 red and 2 white balls. One ball is taken out at random from the first bag and put in the second.
Thena ball is chosen at random from the second bag. What is the probability that this last ball is
red?

Solution:
There are two mutually exclusive cases.
Case I: A red is transferred from the first bag to the second bag and a red ball is drawn from it.
Case II: A white ball is transferred from the first bag to the second bag and then a red ball is
drawn
from it.
Let 𝐴 be the event of transferring a red ball from the first bag, and 𝐵 be the event of transferring
awhite ball from the first bag.
2 1
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = , 𝑃 (𝐵 ) =
3 3
Let 𝐸 be the event of drawing a red ball from the second bag.
2 1
𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐵) =
4 4
𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 − 1) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸 )
= 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴)
2 2 1
= × =
3 4 3
𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 − 2) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐸 )
= 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐵)
1 1 1
= × =
3 4 12
1 1 5
𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸 ) ∪ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐸 )] = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸 ) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐸 ) =
+ =
3 12 12
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 9
Sixty percent of the employees of the XYZ corporation are college graduates. Of these, ten
percent are in sales. Of the employee who did not graduate from college, eighty percent are in
sales. What is the probability that
(i) an employee selected at random is in sales?
(ii) an employee selected at random is neither in sales nor a college graduate?

Solution:
Let A be the event that an employee is a college graduate. Let B be the event that an employee is
in sales.
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.6, 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 0.10, 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴̅) = 0.8

Page | 26
 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐴) = 1 − 0.60 = 0.40
(i) Probability that an employee is in sales
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃 (𝐴)𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴̅ )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴̅ )
= (0.60 × 0.1) + (0.40 × 0.80)
= 0.38
(ii) Probability that an employee is either in sales nor a college graduate
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
= 1 − [𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)]
= 1 − [𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)]
= 1 − [0.60 + 0.38 − (0.60 × 0.10)]
= 0.08
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 10
An urn contains 10 white and 3 black balls, while another urn contains 3 white and 5 black balls.
Two balls are drawn from the first urn and put into the second urn and then a ball is drawn from
the latter. What is the probability that it is a white ball?

Solution:
Here we have,
Urn-1 = 10 white + 3 black balls = 13 total balls
Urn-2 = 3 white + 5 black balls = 8 total balls
There are three mutually exclusive cases.
Case I: Two white balls is transferred from the first urn to the second urn and then a white ball is
drawn from it.
Case II: Two black balls is transferred from the first urn to the second urn and then a white ball
is drawn from it.
Case III: One white and one black ball is transferred from the first urn to the second urn and then
a white ball is drawn from it.

Let 𝐴 be the event of transferring two white ball from the first urn.
Let B be the event of transferring two black ball from the first urn.
Let C be the event of transferring one white and one black ball from the first urn.
10 3 10
𝐶2 𝐶2 𝐶1 × 3𝐶1
𝑃 (𝐴) = 13 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 13 , 𝑃(𝐶 ) = 13
𝐶2 𝐶2 𝐶2
Let 𝐸 be the event of drawing a white ball from the second urn.
5 3 4
𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐶) =
10 10 10
𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 − 1) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸 )

= 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴)

10 × 9 5 450
= × =
13 × 12 10 1560
Page | 27
𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 − 2) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐸 )

= 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐵)

3×2 3 18
= × =
13 × 12 10 1560

𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 − 3) = 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐸 )

= 𝑃(𝐶) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐶)

10 × 3 × 2 4 240
= × =
13 × 12 10 1560

𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸 ) ∪ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐸 ) ∪ (𝐶 ∪ 𝐸 )] = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸 ) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐸 ) + 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐸 )

450 18 240
= + +
1560 1560 1560
708
=
1560
59
=
130
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 11
In producing screws, let A mean “screw too slim” and B mean “screw too short”. Let P(A)=0.1
and let the conditional probability that a slim screw is also too small be 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 0.2. What is
the probability that the screw that we pick randomly from the lot produced will be both too slim
and too short?

Solution:
Let A be the event that screw to slim and B be the event that screw too short
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.1 , 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 0.2
Probability that screw will be both too slim and too short:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = (0.1) × (0.2) = 0.02
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 12
A bag contains 19 tickets numbered from 1 to 19. Two tickets are drawn successively without
replacement. Find the probability that both tickets will show even number?

Solution:
Let A be the event that the ticket drawn is shown even number are
{2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18} = 9
9
𝑃 (𝐴 ) =
19
Let B be the event that the ticket drawn is shown even number in the second draw given that the
first ticket drawn is even number
8
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) =
18
Page | 28
Probability that the tickets drawn are even
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)
9 8
= ×
19 18
4
=
19
_________________________________________________________________
Example – 13
A bag contains 8 red and 5 white balls. Two successive draws of 3 balls each are made such that
(1) the balls are replaced before the second trial and (2) the balls are not replaced before the
second trial. Find the probability that the first draw will give 3 white and the second 3 red balls?
Solution:
Let A be the event that all 3 balls obtained at the first draw are white and B be the event that all
the 3 ball obtained at the second draw are red.
(1) When balls are replaced before the second trial
5
𝐶3 5
𝑃(𝐴) = 13 =
𝐶3 143
8
𝐶3 28
𝑃 (𝐵 ) = 13 =
𝐶3 143
Probability that first drawn will give 3 white and second 3 red balls.
𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 (𝐵 )
5 28 140
= × =
143 143 20449
(2) When balls are not replaced before the second trial
8
𝐶3 7
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 10 =
𝐶3 15
Probability that first drawn will give 3 white and second 3 red balls.
𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 (𝐵 ⁄𝐴 )
5 7 7
= × =
143 15 429
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 14
An urn contains four tickets marked with numbers 112, 121, 211 and 222 and one ticket is drawn.
Let 𝐴𝑖 (𝑖 = 1,2,3) be the event that the 𝑖 𝑡ℎ digit of the ticket drawn is 1. Show that the events
𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 are pairwise independence but not mutually independent.

Solution:
𝐴1 = {112, 121}, 𝐴2 = {112, 211 }, 𝐴3 = {121, 211}
𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 = {112}, 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴3 = {121}, 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 = {211}
Now,
2 1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = = = 𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 𝑃(𝐴3 )
4 2
1
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) = = 𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = 𝑃(𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 )
4
Page | 29
 1
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴2 ) =
4
1
𝑃 (𝐴 2 ∩ 𝐴 3 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 2 ) ∙ 𝑃 (𝐴 3 ) =
4
1
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴3 ) =
4
Hence, events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴3 are pairwise independence.
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = 𝑃(∅) = 0
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) ≠ 𝑃(𝐴1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴2 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴3 )
Hence, events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴3 are not mutually independent.
___________________________________________________________________________________

Page | 30
 Bayes’ Theorem
Let 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , . . . , 𝐴𝑛 be 𝑛 mutually exclusive and exhaustive events with 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) ≠ 0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖 =
1, 2, . . . 𝑛 in a sample space 𝑆. Let 𝐵 be an event that can occur in combination with any one of the
events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , . . . , 𝐴𝑛 with 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0. The probability of the event 𝐴𝑖 when the event 𝐵 has
actually occurred is given by
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ⁄𝐵) = 𝑛
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴𝑖 )

Example – 1
A company has two plants to manufacture hydraulic machines. Plant I manufacture 70% of the
hydraulic machines and Plant II manufactures 30%. At Plant I, 80% of the machines are rated
standard quality; and at Plant II, 90% of hydraulic machines are rated standard quality. A
machine is picked up at random and is found to be of standard quality. What is the chance that it
has come from Plant I?

Solution:
Let 𝐴1 and 𝐴2 be the events that the hydraulic machines are manufactured in Plant I and Plant II
respectively. Let 𝐵 be the event that the machine picked up is found to be of standard quality.
70
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = = 0.7
100
30
𝑃 (𝐴 2 ) = = 0.3
100

Probability that the machine is of standard quality given that it is manufactured in Plant I
80
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) = = 0.8
100

Probability that the machine is of standard quality given that it is manufactured in Plant II
90
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) = = 0.9
100

Probability that the machine is manufactured in Plant I given that it is of standard quality
𝑃 (𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 )
𝑃(𝐴1 ⁄𝐵) =
𝑃 (𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃 (𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 )

0.7 × 0.8
=
0.7 × 0.8 + 0.3 × 0.9

= 0.6747
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 2
A bag A contains 2 white and 3 red balls, and a bag B contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball
is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that the
red ball is drawn from the bag B.

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Solution:
Let 𝐴1 and 𝐴2 be the events that the ball is drawn from bag A and B respectively.
Let B be the event that ball drawn is red.
1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) =
2
1
𝑃 (𝐴 2 ) =
2

Probability that the ball drawn is red given that it drawn from the bag A
3
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) =
5

Probability that the ball drawn is red given that it drawn from the bag B
5
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) =
9
Probability that the ball drawn is red given that it drawn from the bag B given that it is red

𝑃 (𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 )
𝑃(𝐴2 ⁄𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 )

1 5
= 2 ×9
1 3 1 5
( 2 × 5) + ( 2 × 9)

25
=
52

= 0.48077

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Example – 3
The chances that Doctor A will diagnose a diseases X correctly is 60%. The chances that a patient
will die by his treatment after correct diagnosis is 40% and the chance of death by wrong diagnosis
is 70%. A patient of Doctor A, who had the disease X, died. What is the chance that his disease
was diagnosed correctly?

Solution:

Let 𝐴1 be the events that the diseases X is diagnosed correctly by Doctor A. Let 𝐴2 be the event
that the disease X is not diagnosed correctly by Doctor A.

Let B be the event that a patient of Doctor A who has the disease X, dies.

60
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = = 0.6
100

𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 𝑃(𝐴̅1 ) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐴1 ) = 1 − 0.6 = 0.4

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Probability that the patient of Doctor A who has the disease X dies given that the disease X is
diagnosed correctly

40
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) = = 0.4
100

Probability that the patient of Doctor A who has the disease X dies given that the disease X is not
diagnosed correctly

70
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) = = 0.7
100

Probability that the disease X is diagnosed correctly given that a patient of Doctor A who has the
disease X dies

𝑃 (𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 )
𝑃(𝐴1 ⁄𝐵) =
𝑃 (𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃 (𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 )

0.6 × 0.4
=
(0.6 × 0.4) + (0.4 × 0.7)

6
=
13

= 0.4615

____________________________________________________________________________

Example – 4
The contents of urns 𝐼, 𝐼𝐼 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐼𝐼𝐼 area as follows:
1 white, 2 red and 3 black balls
2 white, 3 red and 1 black balls
3 white, 1 red and 2 black balls
One urn is chosen at random and two balls are drawn. They happen to be white and red. Find
theprobability that they came from (𝑖) urn 𝐼, (𝑖𝑖) urn 𝐼𝐼and (𝑖𝑖𝑖) urn III.

Solution:
Let 𝐴1, 𝐴2 and 𝐴3 be the events that urn 𝐼, 𝐼𝐼 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐼𝐼𝐼 are chosen respectively. Let 𝐵 be the
event that 2-ball drawn are white and red
1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) =
3
1
𝑃 (𝐴 2 ) =
3
1
𝑃 (𝐴 3 ) =
3
Probability that 2 balls drawn are white and red given that they are chosen from urn I
1
𝐶1 × 2𝐶1 1 × 2 2
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) = 6 = =
𝐶2 15 15

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Probability that 2 balls drawn are white and red given that they are chosen from urn II
2
𝐶1 × 3𝐶1 2 × 3 6
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) = 6 = =
𝐶2 15 15

Probability that 2 balls drawn are white and red given that they are chosen from urn II
3
𝐶1 × 1𝐶1 3 × 1 3
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴3 ) = 6 = =
𝐶2 15 15

(i) Probability that 2 balls came from the urn I given that they are white and red

𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 )
𝑃(𝐴1 ⁄𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) + 𝑃(𝐴3 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴3 )

1 2
= 3 × 15
1 2 1 6 1 3
(3 × 15) + (3 × 15) + (3 × 15)

2
=
11

= 0.1818

(ii) Probability that 2 balls came from the urn II given that they are white and red

𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 )
𝑃(𝐴2 ⁄𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) + 𝑃(𝐴3 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴3 )

1 6
= 3 × 15
1 2 1 6 1 3
(3 × 15) + (3 × 15) + (3 × 15)

6
=
11

= 0.5454

(iii) Probability that 2 balls came from the urn II given that they are white and red

𝑃(𝐴3 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴3 )
𝑃(𝐴3 ⁄𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) + 𝑃(𝐴3 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴3 )

1 3
= 3 × 15
1 2 1 6 1 3
(3 × 15) + (3 × 15) + (3 × 15)

3
=
11

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 = 0.2727
____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 5
A man is known to speak truth 2 out of 3 times the throws a die and report that number obtained
is a four. Find the probability that the number obtained is actually a four.

Solution:
Let 𝐴1 be the event that a man speaks truth and 𝐴2 be the events that a man speaks lie.
Let E be the event that four on die
2 2 1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 3, 𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 3, 𝑃(𝐸 ) = 6
Probability that four on die given that man speaks truth
1
𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴1 ) =
6
Probability that four on die given that man speaks lie
5
𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴2 ) =
6
Probability that man speaks truth given that the number on die is actually a four:

𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴1 )

𝑃(𝐴1 ⁄𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐴2 )

2 1
= 3×6
2 1 1 5
( 3 × 6) + ( 3 × 6)

2
= 18
2 5
+
18 18

2
= 18
7
18

2
=
7

= 0.2857

_____________________________________________________________________________
Example – 6
A pile of 8 players cards has 4 aces, 2 kings and 2 queens. A second pile of 8 playing card has
1 ace, 4 kings and 3 queens. You conduct an experiment in which you randomly choose a card
from the first pile and place it on the second pile. The second pile is then shuffled and you
randomly choose a card drawn from the second deck was an ace. What is the probability that the
first card was also an ace?
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Solution:

First pile Second pile

4 Ace 1 Ace
2 King 4 King
2 Queen 3 Queen
8 Total 8 Total

Let 𝐴1 be the event that transferring an Ace from the first pile,
Let 𝐴2 be the event that transferring King from the first pile,
Let 𝐴3 be the events that transferring Queen from the first pile.
4 1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = =
8 2
2 1
𝑃 (𝐴 2 ) = =
8 4
2 1
𝑃 (𝐴 3 ) = =
8 4
Let B be the event of drawing an ace from the second pile:
2
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) =
9
1
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) =
9
1
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴3 ) =
9

Probability that the first card was also an ace given that the card drawn from the second pile was
an ace

𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 )
𝑃(𝐴1 ⁄𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) + 𝑃(𝐴3 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴3 )

1 2
= 2×9
1 2 1 1 1 1
( 2 × 9) + ( 4 × 9) + ( 4 × 9)

4
=
6

= 0.6667

____________________________________________________________________________

Example – 7
A bag contains 3 red balls and 7 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random without being
replaced. If the second selection is given to be red then what is the probability that the first is also
red?

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Solution:

3 Red
7 Black
10 Total

Let 𝐴1 be the event that drawing a red balls first,

Let 𝐴2 be the event that drawing a black balls first,
3
𝑃(𝐴1 ) =
10
7
𝑃 (𝐴 2 ) =
10
Let B be the event that drawing a second ball is red without replacement.
Probability that drawing second ball is red given that first ball is red (without replacement)
2
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) =
9
Probability that drawing second ball is red given that first ball is black
3
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) =
9
Probability that the first is also red given that second to be red

𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 )
𝑃(𝐴1 ⁄𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴2 ) + 𝑃(𝐴3 )𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴3 )

3 2
×9
= 10
3 2 7 3
( × )+ ( × )
10 9 10 9

6
= 90
6 21
90 + 90

6
= 90
27
90

6
=
27

= 0.2222

____________________________________________________________________________

Example – 8
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3 make 30%, 45% and 25%
respectively, of the products. It is Known from past experience that 2%, 3% and 2% of the product

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made by each machine, respectively. Now suppose that a finished product is randomly selected
what is the probability that it is defective?

Solution:
Let 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴3 be the events that the red pen selected from one of three boxes.

Let B be the event that the selected pen is red.

1
P(𝐴1 )= 𝑃(𝐴2 )= 𝑃(𝐴3 ) = 3

Probability that the selected pen is red given that it is from box 1.

P(𝐵/𝐴1 )=0.1

Probability that the selected pen is red given that it is from box 2.

P(𝐵/𝐴2 )=0.2

Probability that the selected pen is red given that it is from box 3.

P(𝐵/𝐴3 )=0.3

Probability that a pen is selected from box 1 given that it is red.

P(𝐴1 ).P(𝐵/𝐴1 )
P(𝐴1 /𝐵)= 𝐵 𝐵 𝐵 =0.1665
P(𝐴1 ).P( )+P(𝐴2 ).P( )+P(𝐴3 ).P( )
𝐴1 𝐴2 𝐴3

Probability that a pen is selected from box 2 given that it is red.

P(𝐴2 ).P(𝐵/𝐴2 )
P(𝐴2 /𝐵)= 𝐵 𝐵 𝐵 =0.3333
P(𝐴1 ).P( )+P(𝐴2 ).P( )+P(𝐴3 ).P( )
𝐴1 𝐴2 𝐴3

Probability that a pen is selected from box 3 given that it is red.

P(𝐴3 ).P(𝐵/𝐴3 )
P(𝐴3 /𝐵)= 𝐵 𝐵 𝐵 =0.5
P(𝐴1 ).P( )+P(𝐴2 ).P( )+P(𝐴3 ).P( )
𝐴1 𝐴2 𝐴3

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