2653384-Maruti Suzuki Financial Model - Projections

Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
You are on page 1of 21

Name of the Company Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

CMP (Rs) 1150


No. of outstanding shares (Million) 302
Market Cap. (Rs Million) 347,300

Particulars Historical Historical Historical


Rs. in Millions Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22

Profit & Loss Statement


Revenue from Operation 756,106 703,325 882,956

Net Revenues 756,106 703,325 882,956


YoY Growth % -7% 26%

Material Consumed 346,366 332,969 397,387


Change in Stock (2,381) 2,731 (919)
Purchase of Stock-in-Trade 187,581 172,472 263,905
Power & Fuel 6,978 4,752 6,295
Employee Benefit Expenses 33,839 34,029 40,222
Other Manufacturing Expenses 4,367 4,026 4,956
Vehicle for Own Use (1,217) (728) (1,445)
Royalty 38,173 32,218 30,054
COGS 613,706 582,469 740,455

Gross Profit 142,400 120,856 142,501


GP Margin% 19% 17% 16%
YoY Growth % -15% 18%

Other Expenses 69,374 67,403 85,489

EBITDA 73,026 53,453 57,012


EBITDA Margin% 10% 8% 6%
YoY Growth % -27% 7%

Depreciation 35,257 30,315 27,865

EBIT 37,769 23,138 29,147


EBIT Margin% 5% 3% 3%
YoY Growth % -39% 26%

Finance Cost 1,329 1,008 1,259


Other income 34,208 29,464 17,935
Exceptional Items - - -

PBT 70,648 51,594 45,823


Income Tax - Current 13,748 11,556 14,301
Income Tax - Deferred 394 (2,259) (6,141)
Total Income Tax 14,142 9,297 8,160
ETR 20% 18% 18%

Reported PAT 56,506 42,297 37,663


PAT Margin % 7% 6% 4%
EPS (Rs.) 187 140 125

Business PAT 56,506 42,297 37,663


Business EPS (Rs.) 187 140 125

Core Earnings 29,146 18,142 22,922


Core EPS (Rs.) 97 60 76

Dividend (incl. DDT) 24,166 18,125 13,594

Balance Sheet

Assets
Net Fixed Assets 157,812 152,545 140,076
Capital WIP 13,374 11,923 26,391

Investment in Subsidiaries & Associates 1,464 2,335 3,794


Non Current Investments 351,024 331,375 362,838
Current Investment 12,188 84,157 41,001
Total Investments 364,676 417,867 407,633

Deferred Tax Assets - - 2,027


Current Tax Assets 5,269 5,396 5,429

Inventories 32,149 30,500 35,331


Trade Receivables 19,749 12,766 20,301
Loans & Advances (incl. all adjusted values) 7,125 13,821 26,569
Other Assets 25,156 26,426 39,824
Total Current Assets 84,179 83,513 122,025

Cash & Cash Equivalents 211 30,364 30,362

Total Assets 625,521 701,608 733,943

Liabilities

Share Capital 1,510 1,510 1,510


Reserves & surplus 482,860 512,158 539,350
Shareholders Equity 484,370 513,668 540,860
Short Term Debt 1,063 4,888 3,819
Long Term Debt 4,256 8,319 8,351
Total Debt 5,319 13,207 12,170
Lease Liabilities 644 418 370
Net Deferred Tax Liabilities 5,984 3,847 -
Current Tax Liabilities 6,962 8,539 11,104

Trade Payables 74,941 101,617 97,610


Provisions 7,312 7,863 9,446
Other Current Liablities (incl. all adjustments) 39,989 52,449 62,383
Total Current Liabilities 122,242 161,929 169,439

Total Liability 625,521 701,608 733,943

Working Capital (38,063) (78,416) (47,414)

Check 0 0 0

Cash Flow Statement


Cash Flow from Operating Activity
PBT 70,648 51,594 45,823
Depreciation 35,257 30,315 27,865
Other Income (1,870) (861) (2,264)
Finance Cost 1,329 1,008 1,259
Others (31,297) (26,913) (14,904)
Operating Profit Before WC changes 74,067 55,143 57,779
(consumption)/releases of WC (25,659) 43,352 (28,098)
Cash Generated from operations 48,408 98,495 29,681
Taxes Paid 14,357 10,107 11,769
Net CFO 34,051 88,388 17,912

Cash Flow from Investing Activity


Capex (33,990) (23,279) (33,227)
Investments in subsidiaries and associates (150) (871) (1,459)
Sales/(purchase) of Investments 27,637 (49,492) 30,533
Other Income 1,864 803 2,263
Net Cash Flow from Investing Activities (4,639) (72,839) (1,890)

Cash Flow from Financing Activity


Increase/(decrease) in Debt (433) 3,825 (1,069)
Increase/(decrease) in Lease Liabilities (91) (102) (71)
Issue of Equity - - -
Dividend Paid (24,166) (18,125) (13,594)
Interest Paid (1,342) (1,006) (1,291)
Other (4,968) - -
Net Cash from Financing Activities (31,000) (15,408) (16,025)
Net Change In Cash (1,588) 141 (3)

Cash at the Start of the Year (Op. Bal.) 1,770 182 323
Cash at the End of the Year (Cl. Bal.) 182 323 320

FCFF (Free Cash Flow to the Firm) 61 65,109 (15,315)


Source: Annual Reports - Standalone Financial Statements
Blue - Input Values
Black - Calculated Values
Green - Comments
Yellow Fill - Assumptions

Historical Historical Estimated Estimated


Mar/23 Mar/24 Mar/25 Mar/26

1,175,229 1,283,350 1,414,765 1,559,637

1,175,229 1,283,350 1,414,765 1,559,637


33% 9% 10% 10%

466,700
(4,037)
399,772
7,884
46,051
6,018
(1,373)
42,217
963,232 1,056,858 1,159,585 1,272,296

211,997 226,492 255,180 287,341


18% 18% 18% 18%
49% 7% 13% 13%

101,920 115,502 127,329 140,367

110,077 110,990 127,851 146,973


9% 9% 9% 9%
93% 1% 15% 15%

28,233 36,316 40,280 43,880

81,844 74,674 87,572 103,093


7% 6% 6% 7%
181% -9% 17% 18%

1,866 1,726 1,408 1,465


21,613 21,613 21,613 21,613
- - - -

101,591 94,562 107,776 123,241


22,475
(1,376)
21,099 23,640 26,944 30,810
21% 25% 25% 25%

80,492 70,921 80,832 92,431


7% 6% 6% 6%
267 235 268 306

80,492 70,921 80,832 92,431


267 235 268 306

63,368 54,712 64,622 76,221


210 181 214 252

18,125 35,461 40,416 46,216

178,938 190,703 190,423 186,543


28,081 20,000 20,000 20,000

3,794 3,794 3,794 3,794


473,770 473,770 473,770 473,770
- - - -
477,564 477,564 477,564 477,564

3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411


5,729 5,729 5,729 5,729

42,838 52,740 58,141 64,095


32,958 28,128 31,009 34,184
22,738 22,738 22,738 22,738
39,153 39,153 39,153 39,153
137,687 142,760 151,041 160,169

377 43,082 91,519 150,148

831,787 883,249 939,687 1,003,565

1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510


602,310 637,771 678,187 724,402
603,820 639,281 679,697 725,912
12,158 5,274 5,814 6,409
8,539 8,539 8,539 8,539
20,697 13,813 14,353 14,948
315 315 315 315
- - - -
11,566 11,566 11,566 11,566

117,804 140,641 155,043 170,919


10,500 10,548 11,628 12,819
67,085 67,085 67,085 67,085
195,389 218,274 233,756 250,823

831,787 883,249 939,687 1,003,565

(57,702) (75,515) (82,715) (90,654)

0 0 0 0

101,591 94,562 107,776 123,241


28,233 36,316 40,280 43,880
(2,120) (21,613) (21,613) (21,613)
1,866 1,726 1,408 1,465
(18,764) - - -
110,806 110,990 127,851 146,973
3,787 17,813 7,201 7,938
114,593 128,803 135,052 154,912
22,313 23,640 26,944 30,810
92,280 105,163 108,108 124,101

(62,474) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000)


- - - -
(19,914) - - -
2,206 21,613 21,613 21,613
(80,182) (18,387) (18,387) (18,387)

8,339 (6,884) 540 595


(444) - - -
- - - -
(18,125) (35,461) (40,416) (46,216)
(1,854) (1,726) (1,408) (1,465)
- - - -
(12,084) (44,070) (41,284) (47,085)
14 42,705 48,437 58,629

320 334 43,039 91,476


334 43,039 91,476 150,105

29,806 65,163 68,108 84,101


Comments

From Working

Sum of Above items


Curr. Value / Prev. Value - 1

From Working

Revenue - COGS
Gross Profit / Revenue
Curr. Value / Prev. Value - 1

From Working

Gross Progit - Other Exp.


EBITDA / Revenue
Curr. Value / Prev. Value - 1

From Working

EBITDA - Depreciation
EBIT / Revenue
Curr. Value / Prev. Value - 1

From Working
Keep Constant
Keep Constant

EBIT - Finance Cost + Other Income - Exc. Items


PBT * Effective Tax Rate
Assume Current ETR

PBT - Income Tax


PAT / Revenue
PAT / No. of Shares

PAT + Exp Items*(1-ETR)


B-PAT / No. of OS Shares

B-PAT - Other Income*(1-ETR)


Core Earnings / No. of OS Shares

From Cash Flow

From Working
From Working

Keep Constant
Keep Constant
Keep Constant
Sum of Above items

Keep Constant
Keep Constant

Inventory Days * Revenue / 365


Trade Receivable Days * Revenue / 365
From Working
From Working
Sum of All CA

From Cash Flow

Sum of All Assets

From Working
Prev. R&S + PAT - Dividend + Pre. Recd. - Pre. On Buy Back
Share Capital + R&S
From Working
From Working
Total Debt
Keep Constant
Keep Constant
Keep Constant

Trade Payable Days * Revenue / 365


Provision Days * Revenue / 365
From Working
Sum of All CL

Sum of All Liab.

CA - CL

TA - TL

From P&L
From P&L
From P&L
From P&L
Keep 0
Sum of Above items
Prev. WC - Curr. WC
Ope. Profit + WC change
From P&L
Cash Generated - Tax Paid

From Working
Prev. Inv - Curr. Inv
Prev. Inv - Curr. Inv
From P&L
Sum of Above items

From Working
Prev. Liab - Curr. Liab
Total Issue Amt - Total Buy Back Amt
From Working
From P&L
Keep 0
Sum of Above items
CFO + CFI + CFF

Prev. Clo. Bal.


Net Change in Cash + Ope. Cash Bal.

Net CFO + (Capex)


Historical Historical Historical
Particulars Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
Rs. in Millions

Capacity (Mn) 2.25 2.25 2.25


No. of Vehicle Sold (Mn) 1.56 1.45 1.65
YoY Growth % -7% 14%
Utilization 69% 64% 73%

Sale of Products 716,904 665,621 837,981


Other Operating Revenue 39,202 37,704 44,975
Net Revenue 756,106 703,325 882,956
COGS 613,706 582,469 740,455
Other Expenses 69,374 67,403 85,489
% of sales 9% 10% 10%

EBITDA 73,026 53,453 57,012

Per unit analysis


Realization per Unit 484,683 485,052 535,125
YoY Growth % 0% 10%

COGS per Unit 393,401 401,703 448,761


YoY Growth % 2% 12%

Gross Profit per Unit 91,282 83,349 86,364

Other Expenses per Tonne 44,471 46,485 51,812

EBITDA per Unit 46,812 36,864 34,553

Fixed Asset Schedule


Freehold Land 39,974 40,033 40,382
Building 26,237 27,808 29,108
Plant & Machinery 207,682 222,554 227,043
Railway Siding - - -
EDP Equipment 2,369 2,917 3,231
Furniture & Fixture 3,458 4,018 4,433
Vehicles 2,047 1,732 2,477
Intangible Assets 3,358 2,242 3,499
Intangible Assets under Development 709 2,975 2,903
Right of Use Assets 6,127 5,817 5,679
Gross Fixed Assets 291,961 310,096 318,755
Less: Accumulated Dep 134,149 157,551 178,679
Net Fixed Assets 157,812 152,545 140,076
Capital WIP 13,374 11,923 26,391
Capex 33,990 23,279 33,227

Depreciation Exp 35,257 30,315 27,865


Depreciation Rate (%) 10% 9%

Loans & Advances


Loans 171 232 307
Financial Assets 6,954 13,589 26,262
Loans & Advances 7,125 13,821 26,569

Other Assets
Non-Current 17,213 16,864 25,204
Current 7,943 9,562 14,620

Other Assets 25,156 26,426 39,824

Debt Schedule
ST Debt 1,063 4,888 3,819
LT Debt 4,256 8,319 8,351
Total Debt 5,319 13,207 12,170

Change in ST Debt 3,825 (1,069)


Change in LT Debt 4,063 32
Total Change in Debt - 7,888 (1,037)

Finance Cost 1,329 1,008 1,259


Interest Rate (%) 25% 11% 10%

Equity Schedule
No. of Outstanding Shares 302 302 302
FV per share 5 5 5
Share Capital 1,510 1,510 1,510

QIP / Issue Amount


No. of New Shares Issued
Issue Price per Share
Share Capital Amount
Share Premium Amount Rcvd.

Buyback Total Amount


No. of Shares Bought Back
Buyback Price per Share
Share Capital Amount
Share Premium Amount Paid

Dividend Schedule
Total Dividend Cash Outflow 24,166 18,125 13,594

Dividend Payout (%) 43% 43% 36%


Dividend Per Share 80 60 45

Other Liabilities
Financial Liabilities 4,761 4,374 11,893
Non-Current 21,153 21,292 21,811
Current 14,075 26,783 28,679

Total 39,989 52,449 62,383

Working Capital Ratios


Current Assets
Inventories - Days Sales 15.52 15.83 14.61
Trade Receivables - Days Sales 9.53 6.63 8.39

Current Liabilities
Trade Payables - Days Sales 36.18 52.74 40.35
Provisions - Days Sales 3.53 4.08 3.90
Short Term Debt - Days Sales 0.51 2.54 1.58

Net WC Cycle - Days Sales (15.17) (36.90) (22.84)


Historical Historical Estimated Estimated
Mar/23 Mar/24 Mar/25 Mar/26

2.25 2.75 3.00 3.00


1.97 2.04 2.13 2.21
19% 4% 4% 4%
87% 74% 71% 74%

1,125,008
50,221
1,175,229 1,283,350 1,414,765 1,559,637
963,232 1,056,858 1,159,585 1,272,296
101,920 115,502 127,329 140,367
9% 9% 9% 9%

110,077 110,990 127,851 146,973

597,777 627,666 665,325 705,245


12% 5% 6% 6%

489,945 516,892 545,321 575,314


9% 6% 6% 6%

107,832 110,773 120,004 129,931

51,841 56,490 59,879 63,472

55,990 54,284 60,125 66,459

61,754
31,722
261,672
727
3,673
4,836
2,817
5,479
889
5,904
379,473 427,554 467,554 507,554
200,535 236,851 277,131 321,011
178,938 190,703 190,423 186,543
28,081 20,000 20,000 20,000
62,474 40,000 40,000 40,000

28,233 36,316 40,280 43,880


8% 9% 9% 9%

299
22,439
22,738 22,738 22,738 22,738

21,483
17,670

39,153 39,153 39,153 39,153

12,158 5,274 5,814 6,409


8,539 8,539 8,539 8,539
20,697 13,813 14,353 14,948

8,339 (6,884) 540 595


188 - - -
8,527 (6,884) 540 595

1,866 1,726 1,408 1,465


11% 10% 10% 10%

302 302 302 302


5 5 5 5
1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510

- - -

- - -

- - -

- - -
18,125 35,461 40,416 46,216

23% 50% 50% 50%


60 117 134 153

9,998
25,849
31,238

67,085 67,085 67,085 67,085

13.30 15.00 15.00 15.00


10.24 8.00 8.00 8.00

36.59 40.00 40.00 40.00


3.26 3.00 3.00 3.00
3.78 1.50 1.50 1.50

(20.08) (21.50) (21.50) (21.50)


Comments

Keep Constant
Prev. Value * (1+growth rate)
IMP
No. of Vehicle Sold / Capacity

Realization per unit * Vehicle Sold


COGS per unit * Vehicle Sold
Other Exp. * % of Sales
IMP

From Model

Prev. Value * (1+growth rate)


IMP

Prev. Value * (1+growth rate)


IMP

(Revenue - COGS)/ No. of Vehicle Sold

Other Exp. / No. of Vehicle Sold

EBITDA / No. of Vehicle Sold

GFA + Prev. CWIP - Curr. CWIP + Capex


Prev. Value + Curr. Dep.
Gross - Depreciation
Half of Capex
IMP

Rate * Average GFA


IMP

Keep Constant

Keep Constant

ST Days * Revenue / 365


Prev. Value + Addition/Change
Sum of Above items

Curr. Value - Prev. Value


IMP
Sum of Above items

Rate * Average Debt


IMP

Keep Constant
Keep Constant
Prev. Share Capital + Issued - Buy Back

Issue Amt / Issue Price per share

No. of shares issued * FV


Issue Amt - Share Capital Amt

BB Amt / BB Price per share

No. of shares BB*FV


BB Amt - Share Capital Amt
PAT * Dividend Payout

IMP
Dividend / No. of Shares

Keep Constant

IMP
IMP

IMP
IMP
IMP

CA - CL

You might also like