Afghanistan imbroglio and the peace process

The ongoing Afghan imbroglio started when Soviet forces entered Afghanistan in 1979. The
people of Afghanistan, prepared by the USA, decided to fight a proxy war with the Soviets with
the help of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Pakistan until the ousting of the Soviets in the year1989. Then
a civil war started in Afghanistan between the various sects who fought with the Soviets to get
control of Kabul. Ultimately the Taliban took control of Kabul in 1996 controlling almost 90% of
Afghanistan. The remainder remained under the control of the Northern Alliance. The Taliban
remained in control of Kabul till 2001when NATO forces ousted them under the command of the
USA.

Historical context: South-East Afghanistan is a mostly Pashto-speaking region that is

contiguous to the Western border of Pakistan harboring many Pashtun tribes on the Pakistani side
as well.

The British after capturing almost the whole of the Sub Continent started advancing towards
Afghanistan, but they had to face severe resistance by the Pushto-speaking mountainous tribes on
the present Western border of Pakistan (then under the influence of Afghanistan). The British
ultimately decided to reach an agreement with the Afghan government to demarcate the boundaries
of their respective spheres of influence in this region. Accordingly, a border was drawn in 1893
named as ‘Durand Line border’ as a result of meetings between Mortimer Durand from the British
side and Abdur Rahman Khan from the Afghanistan side. After the partition of the subcontinent
in 1947, this Duran Line border became the Western border of Pakistan with Afghanistan.

Since Pashtun tribes were living on both sides of the border between Pakistan and
Afghanistan, they were not checked from moving to and from Afghanistan with the change of the
season with their herds of sheep a practice going on since old times.
 When the Soviet forces entered Afghanistan in 1979, and the resistance movement waged
by various warlords started against the Soviets, many Afghans started pouring into Pakistan as
refugees reaching over 3 million by the end of the 1980s. Pakistan hosted these refugees with the
help of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) at various camps
established along its border.

Since Pashtun tribes living on the Western borders of Pakistan had deep relations with their
brethren on the Afghan side, therefore, Pakistani side happened to be the safe fleeing place and a
training ground for the Mujahedeen fighters who used to cross into Afghanistan to fight against
the Soviet forces there. Because of the long stay in Pakistan, many of the Afghan Mujahideen
including from other Islamic countries decided to permanently stay in this part of Pakistan, and
many married local women even after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989.

After the withdrawal of the Soviet forces in 1989 a civil war started among the various
warlords of Afghanistan. Taliban emerged as the strongest amongst them all who ultimately
managed to establish a government in Kabul in 1996. They cultivated friendly relations with
Pakistan. However, after the overthrow of the Taliban government in 2001 by the United States
and its allies, Afghan-Pakistan relations became strained as the new government was pro India and
anti-Taliban. The present Afghan government believes that the former Mujahedeen, Taliban, al
Qaeda staying in the tribal belt of Pakistan are engaged in anti-Afghan activities to establish the
Taliban government again. The independent political analysts believe that the reason behind the
present Afghan Taliban movement is that the Taliban being ethnic Pashtuns are hugely under-
represented in the Afghan government whereas ethnic Tajiks from the country's north and Panjsher
Valley are predominant in the government, as compared to their population in the country.

The Taliban militant groups kept on carrying attacks inside Afghanistan. They managed
attacks from within Afghanistan and also with the support of their groups inside the tribal belt of
Pakistan in some instances. This all agitated NATO forces and the Afghan government. It will not
be out of place to mention here that the total strength of NATO collation forces deployed in
Afghanistan towards the end of 2019 was observed as 17000, the major portion belongs to the
USA i.e. 14000. On the other hand, the active Taliban fighters are around 40,000 (Source
Aljazeera, 19th January 2019). Before that according to BBC News NATO ended its combat
mission in Afghanistan on December, 14, leaving a 13000 strong residual force used for training
and counter-terrorism operations, including 9800 US troops.

In the past Afghan government and NATO forces planned to cross the Pakistani border to
chase Taliban militants but with the severe resistance of the Pakistan government, Americans
decided to rely on drone attacks only. The government of Pakistan was, however, pressurized to
take strict measures by not allowing the Taliban to cross the border. But Pakistan maintained that
it was not possible for it to completely seal off and police the long mountainous Pak-Afghan
border. However, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan remained extremely strained
because of the terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan the onus of which was mostly put on the
Pakistani Taliban and also accusing the ISI of aiding the militants, which was denied by Pakistan.

It is widely believed in Pakistan that excessive Indian presence in Afghanistan also supports
instability in Baluchistan, a big discredit to the Afghan government, and a factor and hindrance to
the normalization of relations between the two countries. Some of the Pakistani militant groups
engaged in anti-Pakistani activities are also sheltering in North-East Afghanistan particularly those
who were ousted from Swat by the Pakistan Army.

Afghan-Pak Transit Trade Agreement 2010 and aftermath: Afghan-Pak Transit

Trade Agreement (APTTA) was signed between the two states in Oct 2010 enabling the two
nations to ship trucks into each other’s territory. Afghan trucks were also allowed to pass through
Pakistan to go to India via the Wahga border and also via Karachi and Gwadar. It was also agreed
to construct a railway track in Afghanistan to connect with the Pakistan Railways.
 However, relations between America and Pakistan went to the lowest ebb after killing 24
Pakistani soldiers at Salala check post by NATO forces and Pakistan took a firm stand by cutting
off the NATO supply routes and getting the Shamsi airbase evacuated from the Americans which
was being used for the drone attacks. However, supply was restored after a long stalemate and
assurances.

American doesn’t like an indefinite and long stay of its soldiers on Afghan soil and receive
the dead bodies of their soldiers, but simultaneously not at the cost of losing politico-economic
control of the country and influence in the adjoining countries particularly Pakistan, Central Asia,
Iran, and Turkey. Additionally, India also doesn’t want the power pendulum once again moving
towards the Taliban. In line with this strategy, President Obama announced to leave Afghanistan
by 2014 with a nominal presence there. Accordingly, the number of trained indigenous forces to
take control of the situation after the NATO withdrawal was to be increased. Efforts were also
made to engage with the Taliban in dialogue to arrive at a peace settlement in Afghanistan. The
option to engage Pakistan for a meaningful settlement with the Taliban was not considered
appropriate by the NATO alliance. However, during the Trump regime, Pakistan was asked to use
its good offices to convince the Taliban to come to the negotiating table in December 2018. US
envoy also visited Afghanistan and Pakistan in January 2019 to associate the Taliban to start a
political dialogue. US government once again asked Pakistan to arrange for the dialogue. However,
the Taliban were not willing for direct talks with the Afghan government. They say that they will
talk to them after they finalize the deal with the USA (BBC).

The breakthrough between the Taliban and the Americans was hinted at during the meeting
between President Trump and Imran khan at Washington DC in July and September 2019. The
things were to move in a positive direction for the reason that it was for the first time that as
reported by BBC that in September 2019 election turnout was just 25% lowest in all the previous
elections under the coalition government. Moreover, the Taliban were controlling the maximum
part of Afghanistan.

There have been political dialogues between the USA-led team and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar
intending to restore permanent peace in Afghanistan. The USA also asked Pakistan to play its role
in extricating USA forces from Afghanistan via a mutually agreed upon covenant. Finally, an
agreement was signed in Doha, Qatar in Feb. 2020 between the US and the Taliban. The agreement
was aimed at ending war and withdrawal of US & NATO troops from Afghanistan within 14
months after fighting the longest war spreading over 20 years since 2001.

The agreement was signed in the presence of leaders from Pakistan, Qatar, Turkey, India,
Indonesia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, who will facilitate the way for the US to gradually withdraw
its troops.
 In a statement, the Taliban said it had reached an agreement "about the termination of
occupation of Afghanistan". "The accord about the complete withdrawal of all foreign forces from
Afghanistan and never intervening in its affairs in the future is undoubtedly a great achievement,"
it added. The Taliban also ordered all its fighters to halt fighting and "refrain from attacks".

The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on the Taliban to honor its commitments. "I
know there will be a temptation to declare victory, but a victory for Afghans will only be achieved
when they can live in peace and prosper," he said at the Doha ceremony.

According to the agreement the US will reduce the number of US military forces in
Afghanistan to 8,600 and implement other commitments within 135 days of the US-Taliban
agreement. The Afghan government was also to engage with the United Nations Security Council
"to remove Taliban members from sanctions list by May 29, 2020".

The agreement also proposed an intra-Afghan dialogue with the government in Kabul and the
release of 5,000 Taliban members from prison. However, the Taliban refused to speak to the
Western-backed Afghan government, saying it is a "puppet regime".

The Afghanistan government subsequently engaged with Pakistan to play its role in resolving
the imbroglio agreeable to all parties. Prime minister of Pakistan Imran Khan also paid his first
visit to Afghanistan in December 2020.

Doha agreement between the Taliban and the USA worked according to which the Americans
and the NATO forces left Afghanistan by 31st August 2021. With this announcement and the
Taliban’s took over most of the provinces Ashraf Ghani fled from Afghanistan. Taliban took over
Kabul swiftly on 15th August 2021. The 300,000 Afghan forces did not resist at all.

The compelling grounds for the USA to leave Afghanistan as per the Congressional Research
Service (CRS) were the 2400 casualties of American troops in Afghanistan over the last 18
years, $137 billion spent in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. And still non-restoration of peace
in Afghanistan.

Prospects
• Now intra-Afghan talks will decide the future of the country.
• The release of Afghan $9.5billion with the USA that has been frozen depends upon
certain conditions attached by the USA regarding human rights and American national
interests.
• However, it is a fact that peace in Afghanistan can’t be ensured unless it is governed by
a truly representative government including all the factions particularly the Tajiks, and
Hazara people.
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