Afghanistan: The Past, Present and Possible Future

Historical Perspective
Afghanistan, located on the junction of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia had an old
silk route passing through it facilitating trade between Europe and South Asia and China.
There have been many invasions into India in the medieval period. The invaders used
Afghanistan as a land to move their forces before entering main-land India. That saw
Afghanistan as a transit route where many ethnic groups settled down – The Pashtun,
Baluch, Hazara, Chahar, Aimak, Kirghiz, Persians, Uzbeks and Tajiks with their multiple
ethnic subdivisions. Pashtuns are maximum in percentage followed by Tajiks and Hazaras.
The land of Afghanistan saw advent of Islam in the 8 th and 9th centuries. The residents
accepted Islam as Arabs had conquered the land, but had not accepted Arab dominance.
The land was ruled by Gaznaviads in the 10 th Century, followed by the Ghors in the 11 th and
12th centuries. While these dynasties ruled major portion of Afghanistan there were many
areas that were left in the hands of ethnic minorities. Afghans never imagined their land as
one wholesome mass called Afghan Nation. It was in the 18 th century that Ahmed Shah
Abdali, a Durrani ruler, brought Afghanistan under one rule and it was then that Afghans
started identifying themselves as one.
Difficult terrain is the fundamental issue that has led to creation of a different socio-
economic and cultural isolation of Afghans and the state remained culturally fragmented,
under-developed and not in the mainstream of the global community. The difficult
mountainous terrain (75%) also offered an opportunity to Afghans to fight against the
British successfully to become a buffer state and Durand Line came into existence in 1983.
Under King Zahir Shah Afghanistan developed to catch up with the modernity. After the
ouster of Zahir Shah by his cousin Doud, instability of the state started and through political
turbulences the Soviet Army was invited to interfere. The Soviet forces entered Afghanistan
on 25th Dec 1979. The ‘Cold War’ was at its peak and the Soviet intervention brought in the
US actions to counter the Soviets. Pakistan and Osama-Bin-Laden were the beneficiaries in
US supported actions. Soviets suffered major reverses and the financial state of that country
became critical. Finally, after a decade of occupation the Soviets withdrew. So were the
American efforts withdrawn from Afghanistan. His left Afghanistan without control and in a
state of civil war. Taliban rose to power and Pakistan helped its upsurge. Taliban was trained
by Al-Qaida and Pakistan. Subsequently, as Osama – Bin – Laden was getting targeted by the
US, it was Taliban who provided sanctuary to Osama. After Osama’s attack on the twin
towers of the US and the pentagon on 11 Sep 2001 (famously referred to as 9/11), US
declared war on Afghanistan. The Taliban and Al-Qaida fighters fled to Pakistan and were
given a refuge there.
What followed was the intervention of many countries, under the aegis of the UN to
stabilize Afghanistan. A semblance of democracy was established with Hamid Karzai as the
President and after his two tenures, he was replaced by Mr. Ghani with a coalition partner.
Question is, has Afghanistan returned to normalcy? The answer is “NO”. In spite of so much
money pumped in by many countries, mainly the US, the training of the security forces,
development avenues opened by the international community, including India and anti-
drugs and anti-weapons projects undertaken Afghanistan has yet not stabilized. The reasons
can be summarized as under:

 Internally, Afghanistan has multi ethnic culture and these ethnicities are not ready
to bind together. An Afghan holds stronger alliance to his ethnic group than the
nation. Thus, the officials of the central government have not been able to usher in
the required administrative systems at grass root levels.
 Afghanistan produces 80% of the world’s total production of opium and it is
marketed through collection and distribution centres in Pakistan.
 Though Afghanistan has tremendous natural and energy resources, harvesting of
those has not been possible because of poor security situation.
 Pakistan has methodically cultivated Taliban power centres as it wants a Taliban
government in power in Afghanistan with closer ties with it and yet not allow
sufficient power to it. The fear that Pakistan has is that a faction of Taliban – Tehrik-
e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is anti-Pakistan and wants to establish its own emirate in
Pakistan. Pakistan is skeptical of this as the TTP has a cordial relationship with all
Taliban groups operating in Afghanistan. This support from Pakistan, in terms of
arms, money and training to Taliban cadre has resulted in periodic offensives
undertaken by it.
Present Status
Developments in Recent Weeks:
The NATO and US forces have been exhausted in Afghanistan. There has been a continuous
financial drain on the US and it had to finally take the decision of disengaging from
Afghanistan.

 Though the US had won tactical wars in Afghanistan, the Taliban have managed to
achieve strategic victory.
 The officially elected government in Afghanistan is weak and helpless without the
NATO’s support.
 The Taliban were just awaiting the US to withdraw its forces from Afghan soil. The
final pullout of NATO troops started in May 2021. A hurried final pullout was done in
June 2021. On the heels of this pull out the Taliban have undertaken multi-
directional mass offensive against the legitimately elected Afghan government.
 The Afghan officials have admitted to 150 districts being under the control of
Taliban. Some government forces have surrendered to Taliban and some have fled to
Tajikistan.
 Taliban controls three entry points, one each along Iran, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan
borders.
 It is expected that with no intervention from any foreign power, Taliban will be able
to exercise control over majority of Afghan territory.
  Taliban has declared that they will come out with a peace proposal within a month
and that they will also ensure that cadres of ISIS (Islamic State) will be rooted out of
Afghanistan.
 In the meantime, Iran is proposing to hold peace talks for a rapprochement between
Taliban and the legitimately elected Afghan government. This was always suggested
by the International community for power sharing. But all these power-sharing talks
had not progressed over the past four years.
 India too has been negotiating with the Taliban.
The Pitfalls:
Notwithstanding Taliban victory and establishment of their rule over majority of Afghan
state, they have following inherent problems which are difficult to address:

 All ethnic tribes do not support Taliban (Pashtun dominant). These tribes possess
arms, like most Afghan citizen, and there is fighting continuing between these tribes
and the Taliban fighter.
 Taliban are very autocratic in their religious orientation while common Afghan
citizen love their freedom. The women are likely to be the most affected ones.
Education of women (girl child) is likely to be adversely affected. This is going to
result into many human rights violations.
 Taliban are not conversant with developmental issues of the country and
Afghanistan is likely to remain in medieval age.
 The international terrorism may get a place to safely hibernate and grow.
 China is likely to extend its support for geopolitical and economic advantages.
 Disturbances in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan may draw Russia into conflict zone directly
or indirectly.
 Once Taliban power takes roots in Afghanistan the TTP is likely to start its activities
against Pakistan. The Khyber-Pakhtunwa and Waziristan provinces of Pakistan are
not under full control of Pakistan. It is a fluid region. TTP may take advantage of this
and act against Pakistan.
 All this may result in a state of civil war in the region.
Future Possibilities
From the current developments it is clear that Afghanistan is likely to be mostly under the
control of Taliban and the present government may be overthrown. The question is of
granting legitimacy to the Taliban regime. Legitimacy can only be granted provided the
Taliban regime follows norms of peace and shows political maturity. Not all countries may
recognize the Taliban regime.
The speed with which Taliban has managed to overrun the districts and defeat the Afghan
Security Forces, probably the time for talks of power sharing has gone past and Taliban is
confident of the success of its summer offensive. That may result in severe infighting
between Taliban and other factions. This is likely to lead to other countries not recognizing
Taliban regime so readily.
Whether legitimacy is granted by other nations and also the United Nations or not, the civil
war like conditions are likely to continue and the entire region is likely to remain turbulent.
A stage might arise where foreign forces will get into Afghanistan once again and a situation
that prevailed between 1979 and 1989 (Russian intervention) and between 2001 till 2003
(US war against Taliban) might return.
There is a freak chance of Afghanistan getting fragmented, with larger chunk remaining with
Taliban Pashtuns and a smaller chunk with Tajiks, Hazaras and Baluch. There is a possibility
of some chunks of territories may get detached from Pakistan and may get added to the
fragmented Afghanistan.
Whatever be the case, Afghanistan is likely to be in for a long haul of bloodshed. And the
entire region is likely to face the collateral ill-effects.