Afghanistan

With or without Pakistan, no security system can be developed in Afghanistan.

As per a publication in George Washington University, outside forces saw instability in Afghanistan as an
opportunity to press their own security and political agendas.
One of the poorest country in the world due to the decades of war, lack of foreign investment, ongoing
government corruption and the Pakistani backed Taliban insurgency.
Out of 408 districts, the government holds in 258 while 33 have come under the control of the insurgents,
largely in the south. The remaining 116 districts are contested zones.

Afghanistan History
After 3rd Anglo Afghan war and signing of treaty of Rawalpindi on 19th august 1919, king Amanullah Khan
declared Afghanistan as sovereign and independent state and established diplomatic relations with
international community. By 1923, Afghanistan was emerging as constitutional monarchy with lot of
democratic reforms. He brought reforms like abolition of traditional burqa and co-educational schools
which quickly alienated many tribal and religious leaders.
Amanullah was forced to abdicate his throne due to growing unrest and unpopularity from his radical
reforms and was replaced by Mohammad Nadir Shah, Amanullah Cousin. He abandoned the reforms
brought by Amanullah but was assassinated by a Hazara student. His son, Zahir Shah replaced him after
his assassination in 1933.
Zahir Shah ruled for 40 years up to 1973. Afghanistan remained a peaceful and neutral and maintained
good relationship with both the powers powers, i.e USSR and USA. Also, they stayed away from Second
WW and Cold War during his reign.
Zahir Shah ruled with an assistance of PM. This post was given to his cousin and brother-in-law
Mohammad Daud Khan in 1953 who sought closer relationship with USSR. During his prime ministership,
Afghanistan received more aid than any other country from USSR which was used to built highways,
airports and other infrastructure. Also, USA provided aid to buy influence in Afghanistan. His Democratic
reforms in 1963 had far reaching consequences with with parties far right and far left started to gain
power, For eg. growing popularity of PDPA. Also, drought in 1971-2, devastated the agrarian economy .
In 1973, Daud Khan launched a bloodless coup and became first president of Afghanistan.End of Zahir
Shah rule, resulted in Series of coup followed by a series of civil war that has devastated the Afghanistan
and continue till date. Daud Khan allied with USSR, which provided Afghanistan military aid and equipment
such as tanks and sophisticated military weapons. USSR interest in Afghanistan mainly to gain access to
Indian Ocean. Also, Daud Khan govt was anti Pakistan and supported separatist movements amongst
pathans of Pakistan.
Saur Revolution in 1978 led to seize of power by Communist People's Democratic Party of
Afghanistan(PDPA) and Daud Khan and his family was assassinated and country was renamed as
Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. PDPA brought radical reforms, gave political freedom and rights to
women, engaged in land reforms and promoted state atheism. This enraged a large no. of groups
including social elite, religious heads. Also, people detested heavy reliance of PDPA over USSR as
Afghanis historical distrust of foreign power. So, PDPA started to become unpopular among masses.
Opponents of Communism, waged guerilla warfare against communist government in Eastern
Afghanistan leading to civil war in the country by the mid of 1978.
Internal Power struggle within Communist Party and Soviet distrust of then President Hafizullah Amin
ended in his assassination by Soviet special forces and was replaced by Babrak Karmal. Also, Soviet
troops were deployed to provide support to newly communist government. However by the end of 1978,
they ended up getting directly involved in domestic war and were pitted against tribal Mujahideens.
By mid of 1979, Afghanistan became another front of cold war, with USAs CIA supporting anti-Soviet
Afghan Mujahideen and foreign Afghan Arabs fighters through Pakistan ISI. USA involved to counter Soviet
influence in the vicinity of the oil rich Persian gulf after pro USA government was replaced in Iranian
revolution and rapprochement with the Afghan govt failed.
Pakistans NWFP functioned as networking and organisational base for anti-Soviet forces and province
Deobandi ulama played a major role in promoting Jihad
Soviet Forces retreated from Afghanistan by 1989 and provided support to then President Mohammad
Nazibullah who remained in power until 1992.Najeebullah government tried to rebuild his country with
 economic and military aid and solve ongoing civil war. Changed the country's constitution to garner
support of Islamic group. Country officially became Islamic state and all reference to communism was
removed. However Pakistan ISI chief Hamid Gul plan of trans-Islamic revolution and opening of another
front of Iran-Saudi rivalry and their support to different faction kept the country in the state of perpetual civil
war.
In 1992, post-Soviet, Islamic State of Afghanistan was established with Peshawar Accord where all parties
were united for peace and prosperity of Afghanistan except, Pakistan supported Hezb-e Islami of
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who started another front of war. Burhanuddin Rabbani(Tajik) was elected as
president by Peshawar Mujahidin Council.
Newly formed government under the state of civil war found it very difficult to develop its institutions and
failed to safeguards its citizen from regular killing, extortion, kidnapping and rape by various groups.
By 1994, Taliban led by Mullah Omar, with military support from Pakistan and financial support from Saudi
Arabia emerged as major religious and political force in Afghanistan.
By mid of 1996, Taliban captured Kabul and established Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan ruled by strict
Sharia rule similar to that of Saudi Arabia.
Southern and Eastern Afghanistan was under the control of local commanders and they formed Northern
Alliance(United Front) composed up of Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Kazakhs to fight Taliban under the
leadership of Ahmad Shah Massoud. Around 30% of the population lived under Massoud administered
area. Under his leadership taliban received severe blow. Masood was face of resistance and democracy
under Taliban led Afghanistan. He was assassinated two days before 9/11 and Afghans lost an able
commander and a champion of democracy and human rights in the war-torn country.
After 9/11, USA and allies launched global war on terror named Operation Enduring Freedom against
Taliban led Afghanistan for providing shelter to Osama bin Laden whom USA held responsible for 9/11 and
killing of 4000 americans.
By December 2001, taliban govt was overthrown and new Afghan govt under President Hamid Karzai was
formed. Also, UNSC established ISAF to help Karzai administration and provide basic security.
2002, taliban began regrouping inside Pakistan.
By 2009, shadow govt led by taliban began to form in parts of Afghanistan.
2010, peace effort began and regional commanders on the taliban leadership council, Quetta Shura
sought meeting with UN special Rep in Afghanistan and was held in Dubai- Karzai govt after London
conference attempted to hold peace negotiation with Taliban and invited them to take part in Loya
Jirga(assembly of elders)
In 2011, after the death of osama bin laden,many Afghan leaders were assassinated. Also, Haqqani
network working hand in glove with Pakistani Military intelligence service ISI intensified terrorist attack in
Afghanistan and also skirmishes at Pakistan- Afghanistan intensified. Then Chairman of Joint Chief of
Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen condemned Pakistani army and ISI for using violent extremism as an instrument
of policy . Also, US Ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, stated about evidence linking the Haqqani
network to the Pakistan govt. Operation Knife Edge was launched by NATO and Afghan Force against the
Haqqani network.
2014- the US War in Afghanistan, america's longest war ended officially on 28 dec 2014. However,
thousand of US led NATO forces have remained to train and advise Afghan govt forces.

Social
Ethnicity - Pashtun - Western, Southern and to an extent at eastern parts - 50%; Hazaras -9%; Tajiks,
Uzbeks and Kazakhs - northern Afghanistan - 30%
99% aligned to Sunni Islam.
Languages - Dari and Pashto(Af-Pak border)

Improvement in Social Sphere

Life expectancy has gone up from 40 years in 2002 to 62 years today
Literacy figures have gone up from 12 per cent to 34 per cent in 15 years.
youngest populations with 60 per cent of the population below 21 years of age.
More than 8 million Children in Schools

Economic Sphere
Need to develop economy so that it can be transformed from aid economy to sustainable economy. With
start of Cold War, USSR aid
Major producer of poppies - produce largest supply of opium in the world
 $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits.

Political

Actors in Afghanistan
Mujahideens
Mainly Pashtun tribals who were against PDPA rule
Mujahedeen forces which were designed to fight against Afghanistan transformed into Islamic
fundamentalists(taliban) forces with the help of Pakistan to serve Pakistan interest in Kashmir.
Taliban
As of April,2017 half of the Afghanistan under the taliban control. April,2017 attack on military base was
deadliest by the Afghan Taliban since they were ousted from power in 2001.
Taliban in Pashto means students
Taliban mainly enjoyed support from Pashtoons.
They were militarily armed by Pakistan and financed by Saudi Arabia and were driven by Wahabi ideology
succeeded in establishing Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
They ruled through strict form of sharia law
They became popular in Pakistan also and as per Ahmed Rashid, around one lakh Pakistanis joined
Taliban.
India is considered anti- Pashtoons, mainly propagated by Pakistan
Analyst Amin Saikal described Taliban as developing into a proxy force for Pakistans regional interests.
However Pashtoons later divided into three major factions and taliban popularity dwindled within civil
society.
Support Current System, have formed political party
Continue to wage war against US and its allies
Pakistan term them as bad Taliban
TTPK is an example
Established parallel government in Qatar
They demand institutionalization of their power
Pakistan facilitates their talks with current actors involved in peace process and term them as
good taliban
Northern Alliance
Al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda initially was active in west Asia and North Africa (WANA) as a religious and social organisation
 driven by Wahhabism
Al-Qaeda emerged as major terrorist organization in 1990s
At the end of Cold War, US withdrew support from Afghanistan and hence taliban started to face financial
crunch.
As per British Intelligence Report, Pakistan ISI connected Al-Qaeda with Taliban and trained them using
USAs arms and ammunition
1999, al Qaeda identified USA, Israel and India as major threat to Islam.
USA
Civil society in West Asia , Perceived US intervention as propagator of christianity, and hence threat to
Islam . Samuel Huntington's book - clash of civilization.
USSR/Russia
Friendly Afghanistan was quintessential to USSR interest due to its proximity to Muslim dominated areas
of USSR.
Russia need more engagement of India to counter EU-NATO forces along with China.
Pakistan
Overreach in Afghanistan
Mainly used anti India propaganda to motivate Islamist to wage unconventional war against India
During 1990s, LeT(hafiz saeed), India MuJ , JeM ( azhar masood) people prominent actors
porous border with Afghanistan with tribal linkages cutting across the Durand Line,
critical to any political reconciliation in Afghanistan
Pakistan has been seeking is to exercise a veto over Kabuls relations with Delhi which the Afghans are
unwilling to concede.
Pakistans policies towards both India and Afghanistan are determined primarily by the Army which sees
India as an existential threat
only way out for Pakistan to play a constructive role in Afghanistan is to accept the idea of Afghan
sovereignty and autonomy and refrain from making it a zone of India-Pakistan rivalry.

Why Radical Groups are successful

Outreach to local community
well organised recruitment process and often better paid than security forces
Financial Support
Well defined logistic support
poverty and employment also plays a role

Approaches Afghanistan govt has taken to improve stability

Former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, described the Taliban as Pashtun brothers, referred to
India as an old friend and Pakistan as a brother and conjoined twin. However Pakistan failed to live up
During Ashraf Ghani Regime
Pakistan support to Afghanistan on grounds of diminishing its relationship with India, Quadrilateral
Coordination Group was setup consisting of Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the U.S.
he learnt that the myth of Mullah Omar had been sustained for at least two years and despite his
pleading, the ISI went ahead with the anointment of Mullah Mansour as the new Taliban leader.
publicly blamed Pakistan of sending a message of war
challenge for Kabul is that it has to engage in multiple reconciliation processes with the Taliban and with
the Pakistani army.
hardline Taliban represented by the Haqqani network is determined to continue the fight militarily.
more moderate who are willing to talk demand the exit of all foreign forces from Afghanistan.

Why Afghan Govt is failing

lack of unity within the government with differences b/w CEO and PM
lack of common vision wrt to peace and national reconciliation
Lack of capacity , 40-50% military illiterate
Corruption within organisation

Indian foreign policy

2002-2005
Major challenge was to prevent anti foreigner sentiments in general and anti Indian in particular and India
should not be seen as economic exploiter.
Hence India during this phase indulged mainly in humanitarian support in a war torn country. India
 provided medicines, food supply, built houses and transportation infrastructure. Also, setup small scale
industries to incorporate unskilled Afghanis
Main goal was to create goodwill in Afghanistan. Indira Gandhi hospital was constructed and 1000s of
clinic were established to take care of War ravaged people.
2005-2010
Close political involvement and openly supported democratic forces
Extended Capacity building programme such as training of election commission, Afghanistan
parliamentarian and technical support in the form of providing EVMs
Close economic engagement with Big economic projects, mainly GAIL and Indian Rare Earth Limited in
collaboration with Japanese to explore rare earth material
Dam and Parliament construction with Indian support started
2010- present
Training of Afghan national security forces and joint military and rescue operations
Transfer of small arms and ammunition

India's engagement
Economic Engagement
economic cooperation programme, having spent more than $2 billion and committed another billion dollars
in 2016
2017-18 Budget, 350 crore economic aid

India should not militarily engaged in Afghanistan either bilaterally or multilaterally. Cost of war very high in
Afghanistan and would drain economic resources of the country. As per US congress, cost of war in
Afghanistan stood around $300 b /year. Also, as per Indian foreign policy, no military engagement in other
countries. Military engagement would fuel anti India sentiments as Afghans against any foreign
involvement. Anti India sentiments could be used by Pakistan to set up cross border terrorism.
US and allied forces should continue to provide technical support to Afghan forces even after their
withdrawal
India should appoint military observer who should be responsible to provide security concern in
Afghanistan to Asian and the world
India's military assistance to Afghanistan should be limited to
Providing training
Small arm supply
Surveillance support and intelligence gathering and exchange of information
Tactical warfare training
Opening up of more channels of communication through civil society groups, media and soft power in
Afghanistan.

India's interest in Afghanistan

Economic
Central Asian market in general and their energy market in particular
Norther part of Afghanistan is oil rich
It has rare earth elements
Political
Afghanistan support in SAARC Which helps in maintaining consensus in South Asia
Reduce Pakistan strategic depth in Afghanistan in Particular and South Asia in general.
Strategic
Close military alliance will helps to extend oversight and surveillance especially movement of non
state actors on Northern borders
Peace in Kashmir and helps to reduce cross border terrorism

Deliberately india has been kept away from security conferences. However socio-economic project has been
given to India in order to allow secular culture to flourish in Afghanistan

India's Views on Taliban

Acceptance of red line
Give up terrorism
 red line were established during the Bonn Conference in 2011, which lays down criteria and minimum
standards which must be met when negotiating with the Taliban. These include forsaking violence,
cutting ties with Al Qaeda and abiding by the Afghan Constitution.

Indian Challenges in Afghanistan

Security Challenges
security of India officials
Security of Indian workforce. Eg Indian engineers kidnapped
Threat to Indian infrastructure . Railway constitutes by India blasted , Gail office once attached
Drug trafficking, use for funding extremist violence
Diplomatic challenge
Multi ethnic solution and India has to remove anti-Pashtun
US attempt to sought out the problem without engaging all stakeholders. Eg , as India was not
invited in many security conferences. There is no common platform engaging India, China, Pakistan,
Iran, USA and Russia together.
Involving US until the final solution of Afghanistan is found as US .Half hearted solution will hamper
Indian interest in Afghanistan
Economic Challenges
Sustainability of economic enterprise
Connect Afghanistani market with Indian market. Engagement of private player in Afghanistan.
Development so that India do not emerge and perceived as economic exploiter. Hence need for
capacity building
Improving Indian position in Afghanistan
Soft power
Engagement of entertainment industry . Eg saas bhi kabhi abhi thi have higher viewership in
Afghanistan.
Sports diplomacy - Afghanistan cricket team training in India and Afghanistan cricketer in IPL.
Funding of national magazine and media media cooperation.
Renewal of Sufi form of Islamism. Hence countering the base of anti India sentiments
Political Communication
Civil society organisations engagement in Afghanistan.

Heart of Asia
for secure and stable Afghanistan
November 2nd, 2011 in Istanbul, Turkey, taken from a poem written by Iqbal, the national poet of Pakistan
Infra projects
-kabul electricity
-Delarram highway
-Salma Dam
-Afghan Parliament