Westernization of Ukraine

The demographic shift in Ukraine? How?

 The population of Ukraine is originally Russian in background

 Ukraine remained the part of ussr till 1991.
 And overwhelming influence of Russia on ukranian population remained.
 But, since the beginning of 21st century there has been a tremendous demographic
shift from pro Russia to pro Europe.
 The population of Ukraine could be broadly divided into western ,central and south
western Ukraine. These parts of the country are increasingly westernized.
 Eastern and south eastern Ukraine are adjacent to Russia and the ppl are under still
strong influence of Moscow.
 Approx.. 65 to 70% of the population is pro west now and only about 25 to 30% of
the population is pro Russia.
 Increasing demographic shift resulted in political shift also in the favour of west
against Russia.
 In 2008, for the first time pro Europe party won election with majority. 2008,2013
and 2018 all were won by them. Vladimir Zelensky won election with majority and
speeded up the pro westernization process.
PRO-EU policies: of Ukraine

 increased visa relaxation between Ukraine and European union. The citizens of
each provided visa on the arrival of airport or border, Increasing people to people
mobility, tourism that resulted in increasing interaction between Ukrainians and
Europeans
 increasing trade relations between ukraine and European union(eu).in 2013, the
first free trade deal was signed between ukraine and eu. Ukraine became the
major exporter of wheat,maize,livestock to Europe
 ukraine applied for the membership of EU in 2022. If ukraine is given the
membership of EU, it would become the part of the worlds most integrated
organization that has economic , social and political integration. This would be a
major setback for Russia.

Increasing relations with NATO.

 Ukraine has been purchasing weapons from a series of NATO countries since
2014 especially from USA/UK/FRANCE etc.
 In 2008, nato expressed its intentions to give membership to ukraine and
Georgia. This was opposed by RUSSIA.
 The civil war between eastern and south eastern ukraine has been supported by
Moscow in one hand and by NATO countries on the other. The non state actors
are supported by Russia while the ukranian being supported by NATO
countries.furthermore, US UK and other nato countries have started funding
 mercenaries from Europe and US to fight in eastern ukraine against the Russian
supported rebels.
 Ukraine started participating in a series of joint nato exercises in Poland/ Baltic
sea etc.
 Ukraine applied for the membership for NATO in 2022. This all is not acceptable
to Russia.

Nato expansion towards the Russian neighbourhood and the response of Russia

 During cold war(1946-1991): us launched an aid programme called Marshall aid/plan

that was given to central and eastern European countries in order to contain the
increasing influence of communist Ussr. Secondly, US made a series of military alliances
primarily NATO in 1949. SEATO AND CENTO in 1950s to contain Russia.
 On the other hand, Ussr, that comprised upon the present Russia, central Asian
republics, eastern European countries specially in the Nordic and Baltic regions.
Furthermore, USSR made a military alliance with eastern European countries like Poland/
Belarus etc called WARSA PACT.
 VIETNAM WAR was the key part of cold war. On one hand US troops fought in Vietnam
supporting the government against the rebels, on the other hand, USSR and China
supported the vietnamis rebels and the war ended with the defeat of US.
 AFGHAN JIHAD: US, EUROPE, SUADIA ARABIA AND PAKISTAN supported the afghan
mujahideen and USSR supported the Afghan government which ended with the defeat
of USSR in 1989.

 NATO is an alliance of US ,Canada, turkey and European countries. It started expanding

in the eastern Europe. In 1991, after disintegration of USSR, US guaranteed that NATO
would not expand eastwards. But unfortunately the promise was not fulfilled as it
continued its expansion in 1999,2004, and 2008. And a series of countries in the eastern
Europe were given the membership of NATO that enraged MOSCOW more and more.

 In 2008, when Georgia tried to become part of EU on one hand and NATO on the other,
Russia attacked the country because it could not afford the encroachment of the NATO
INTO the immediate neighbourhood of RUSSIA. Within few days the whole of Georgia
was under control of Russian troops and Russia agreed on conditional evacuation:
Georgia would stay neutral in Russia-nato rivalry. Secondly, Georgia allowed Russian
military bases on its soil.

The attack on ukraine and its implications

 Russia launched an all out war against Ukraine in Feb 2022. More than
200 thousand Russian troops participated in the war the Russian navy ,
Airforce artillery armoured core and infantry all participated ,
furthermore , more than 40 thousand Russian mercenaries called
 waggoners also participated in the war . Russia attacked from eastern,
south eastern Ukraine on one hand and from Belarus on the other.

 Unprecedented losses to Ukraine:

 unprecedented infrastructural losses

 Ukraine lost all the territories in the east and south east Ukraine.Russia
declared them as breakaway regions. Secondly, Russia also captured
majority of the coastal areas of Ukraine with the black sea specially the
seaport and the naval bases of Ukraine it made Ukraine practically cut off
from trading through the black sea as the main seaport Rhodesia being
captured by Russia. thirdly, Ukraine started attacking airports, airbases,
highways, bridges all of the strategic nature that connects Ukraine either
with Europe/black sea or Baltic-sea or Russia. Fourthly, Russia also
started attacking the major urban centres in the central and south west
of Ukraine even the capital is not being forgiven.
 Ukraine has faced unprecedented losses to its agriculture:
It is the worlds fourth largest producer of grains specially wheat and
maize. Majority of Ukraine is facing war people are unable to cultivate
their land. Moreover, the seaports of Ukraine specially Rhodesia being
captured by Russia resultantly Ukraine is unable to export its goods
specially agriculture. The decline in crops also resulted in the decline of
livestock. Agriculture has been the key contributor of the economy of
Ukraine :it is practically at a halt.
 After ww2 , European countries have experienced the largest ever
migration. Around 4 million of ukranians have become refugees across
Europe primarily in Poland . more than 5 million people are internally
displaced. All these people have lost jobs and businesses and ukranians
are facing unprecedented socio economic crisis. World bank report,
December 2023: more than 600 billion dollars lost faced by Ukraine
because of the war.
 Implications of the war on Europe :
1. Economic implications;
 Russia is the largest hydrocarbon exporter to Europe specially
to Scandinavian countries in general and Germany in particular.
Almost all the eastern European countries are dependent upon
 Russian gas and oil , majority of the gas being exported through
Nord stream-one and Nord stream two. Furthermore, Europe
has been the largest importer of Russian oil till the beginning of
Ukraine war. After the war began, US and Europe and us
imposing sanctions upon Russian hydrocarbons.it did not hit US
directly, because US is one of the major producers of oil and
majority of US hydrocarbon need is indigenously produced. But
Europe has been overwhelmingly dependent on Russian
hydrocarbons. When Europe imposed sanctions it had to look
for the new markets for hydrocarbon imports. The availability
of oil and gas in the international market was less , US
president tried to convince Saudia Arabia an other middle
eastern countries to increase oil production but they refused to
do so. Resultantly, increasing price hike of the hydrocarbons in
international market that hit European industries badly and
economies. For example Germany had been overwhelmingly
dependent upon Russian hydrocarbons but after the beginning
of war, Germany cut down its imports of oil and gas from
Russia. It badly hit the industry of the country, resultantly the
largest European economy is turning to be the next “sick man
of Europe”.
“COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE” ON GLOBAL LEVEL AND THE ROLE OF Ukraine
WAR IN THAT:
 World ban, IMF and fitch figures moody etc: the world is facing
the highest ever price hike in the last 4 decades. France/uk and
Germany and other European countries are facing the highest
price hike in the last46 years. United states of America and
other north American countries are facing the highest ever
price hike in the last 39 years. Australia/Japan/new zeland and
ASEAN are facing the highest ever price hike in the last 48
years. Pakistan is facing the highest ever price hike since
inception.
 Almost every commodity has got expensive(doubled or more
in the last 3 years). Crude oil price per barrel in july 2020 was
23$ , in july 2021 it was 78$, in july 2022 it was around 127$. In
the same way the price of LNG and coal have increased more
than 3 times. Hydrocarbon is the major determinant of the
 price of other commodities. As hydrocarbon increases,
transportation cost increases, electricity cost increases, that
result into the price hike of industrial and agricultural goods
too. This has happened across the world as well as Pakistan.

REASONS:
1. THE RISE in the price hike after corona. During corona, states
imposed lockdowns both internally and borders as well.
Industries were closed down.
industries/hotels/markets/transports all closed. States also
imposed restrictions on the borders and seaports as well as
airports. International economy was at a halt that led to
decline of prices of products specially
fuel/transport/textile/automobiles/electronics all except
medicine and food. After covid, markets resumed. Increase
in demand once again specially of hydrocarbons/industrial
and agricultural goods. The production sector could not
meet the demand. Resultantly, price hike occurred.
2. War in Ukraine resulted in price hike. After Russia attacked
Ukraine, Europe imposed sanctions on Russian oil and to a
certain extent on gas too. Europe approached middle east
and other producers for its need of oil and gas and these
producers could not meet Europe’s demand resultantly price
hike of oil and gas occurred. The rise in price of hydrocarbon
resulted in the rise of the price of toher goods/commodities
too.
Ukraine has been the major producer of wheat, corns, maize,
and livestock in the world. Europe has been overwhelmingly
dependent on the agriculture goods of Ukraine but because
of war the agricultural production of Ukraine declined,
furthermore, Russia controlled the seaport of ukraine called
Rhodesia therefore it is unable to export its agricultural
goods to the world. It resulted in the price hike of food.
WAR IN Ukraine: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE REVIVAL OF
NATO

 Nato was established in 1949 originally there were 12

countries in it but now more than 30 countries.: us /
Canada/ turkey and majority countries of Europe.
 Nato was established to contain the increasing threat
of USSR to Europe. Fear of USSR brought the NATO
countries to make the military alliance.
 There is a concept of collective defence under ARTICLE-
5 of nato charter: whenever any of the nato member is
being attacked by Russia or any other foreign country
or terrorist organisation all the member nations are
bound to retaliate in the defence of the attacked
country.
 Expansion of NATO continued: till 1999 there were
around 20 countries in NATO. In 1999 and 2004,
majority of the eastern European countries which were
the part of USSR OR WARSA pact, joined NATO. For
instance, BALTIC countries like Estonia,
lithwania,maldova ,Poland and Bulgaria (BOTH
NORDIC)joined NATO.
 SINCE the attack of Russia on Georgia , NATO member
nations have been cautious of the Russian
resurgence/revival. Russia attacked and controlled
Georgia within days. NATO chief stated: Europe must
end its peace holidays and invest more in its defence in
order to contain the resurging Russia. The annexation
of Crimea( Ukraine’s part) by Russia Ranged the alarm
bells across NATO.
 The attack of Russia on Ukraine provided NATO an
opportunity to revive and expand more. NATO is the
 majorproviderof weapons to Ukraine.26 NATO
countries are primarily US ,UK and France are providing
weapons to Ukraine. And not only weapons, they are
providing funds as well to Ukraine to fund its resistance
against Russia. More than 40 billion dollars been given
by NATO countries to Ukraine. Resultantly, the armed
resistance of Ukraine has tremendously increased and
the last one year or so Russia has mot been able to
make further advancements. on the contrary, Ukraine
has started regaining a number of lost territories.
Furthermore, Ukraine has also started attacking inside
Russia. And all this is because of overwhelmingly
military and financial support of NATO. THE FUTUTE OF
NATO and Russia is overwhelmingly dependant on the
war in Ukraine.
 Increasing new membership awarded to the eastern
European countries. The membership of Finland has
already been approved. The case of Sweden is in the
final stages. It means more addition of countries into
NATO , more troops, weapons, and defence budget of
NATO.
 THE membership to Finland is of paramount
importance. It is the immediate neighbour of Russia,
having long border with Russia, NATO would deploy its
forces on the border of Finland with the Russia. That
would result into more threats to Russia. Resultantly,
Russia would also deploy troops on the border with
Finland.
 War in Ukraine and the resurgence of Russia
 The decline of USSR: the cold war that began in 1946,
ended in 1991 with the disintegration of USSR. The
world became unipolar as US BECAME sole power and
Russia became a second rate power. It was called “the
end of history” by francis-fokoyama. As US would be
the sole power and no other system would be able to
challenge the western liberal democratic and economic
system.
 Since the beginning of 21st century, from the time
Vladimir Putin has resumed power, the resurgence of
Russia began:
 Attack on Georgia and the resurgence of Russia.
 The annexation of CRIMEA and the resurgence of
Russia: Crimea was gifted to Ukraine in 1960s when it
was a part of USSR. It is of immense geostrategic and
geoeconomic importance: it provides Russia an access
to the balcksea. more than 11000 km of the coastal
belt of Russia is frozen it needs an access to the 24/7
floating water across the year., one of them is black sea
and that access is provided by crimea. When Ukraine
did not stop its westward mobility(westernization)
Russia annexed crimea. The Prime minister of crimea
announced referendum to decide whether the peplum
of crimea wanted to go with Russia or Ukraine. 96% of
people voted for Russia. Therefore, Russia annexed
crimea. US brought a resolution in the UNSC against
the annexation which was vetoed by RUSSIA. THAT’S
HOW Russia ANNEXED CRIMEA.
 Russia-Iran-Assad alliance: dominated in Syria. From
2011 till 2023, two alliances continued proxy war in
 Syria. Saudi Arabia /GCC(gulf cooperation council).
Us/NATO , FSA( free Syrian army) , Al nusra has been
one alliance. Secondly, Russia,iran , Hezbollah from
Lebanon and bashar al Assad government another
alliance. After a decade long war Russia-led alliance
dominated. Russia launched aerial an missile strikes
across Syria against ISIS, FSA AND AL NUSRA. Russia
also sent its artillery , armoured core and infantry into
Syria to assist Assad government against rebels. 2016
and onwards basharal Assad government recovered
more than 80% of the lost territory and pre dominantly
defeated the non state actors with the help of Russia
and Iran.
 Attack on Ukraine and the resurgence of Russia.

The fear in Europe of who is next

 There is an increasing fear among European countries
because of the Russian resurgence.
 Most of the countries in the eastern Europe are afraid
of the attack of Russia in future. It attacked Georgia in
2008, annexed crimea in 2014 and attacked Ukraine iin
2022. Finland claims it would be attacked by Russia,
Sweden has the same fear, so has the Baltic countries
and Poland. Once Ukraine attack being controlled,
Russia would attack them too. This fear in the
European world has provided NATO with an
opportunity to revive and expand.
Who would win the war in Ukraine?
 ON ONE HAND RUSSIA has the upper hand: it is the immediate
neighbour of Ukraine, it has already attacked and captured a
series of ukranians territories. Secondly, Russia has
overwhelming dominance in weapons over Ukraine. Thirdly,
 Russia has hydrocarbons in abundance to continue and fund
the war with Ukraine. Apart from that, NATO cannot directly
jump into the war because Russia would get nuclear. There is an
increasing shortage of funds in Ukraine as US has cut down its
financial bailouts to Ukraine , if US does not provide enough
funds tu Ukraine, it would be a soothsailing for Russia in
Ukraine. If the war in middle east continues to expand, Russia
would be the major beneficieary to dominate the war in
Ukraine. Europe and US have partially failed to contain Russia
by imposing sanctions on its hydrocarbons. Russia cut down its
oil and gas prices by 35% from which china and india
benefitted the most. In the last two years, the economy of
Russia has performed even better as compared to pre Ukraine
war.
 On the other hand, NATO WOULD NOT LODE THE WAR SO
EASILY. Rather it has the brighter possibility to dominate. Firstly
because, the military and technological of NATO are far bigger
and superior than that of Russia. If Ukraine continues getting
the defence support, it would not lose and may probably tire
down Russia. Secondly, the financial capacities of NATO
countries are far bigger than Russia. Russia is a two trillion
dollar economy whikle US alone is a 26 trillion dollar economy
and Europe is above 20 trillion all these have financial
capacitites to fund the war on ukrains behalf and keep Russia
on the backfoot. Thirdly, US and other NATO countries would
not directly jump into the war rather continue prviding financial
and mikitary assistance to ukranians forces that would enable
Ukraine to keep resisting and may put Russia on the backfoot.
 Conclusion: it is not clear who would win, but the war in
Ukraine may not easily end. If nato agrees on ceasefire in the
present situation it would be an overhwlmingly majority or
Russia. And if, Ukraine wants to pull out from the war and
enter into peace deal with Russia , nato would not let that
happen. And, if nato tries to jump into the war, Russia would
get nuclear.