TOPIC: RUSSIA - UKRAINE

the westernization of Ukraine

 Demographic shift
- The society is historically Russian in Background
st
since the begining of 21 century, there has been a major demographic shift towards Europe
Majority of the population of Ukraine lives in eastern central, western and the southern Ukraine

1. Demographically Pro-Europe & Pro-Russia:

A) Western, Central, South Western Ukraine: are all overwhelming majority is Pro
Europe. The population is around 70%. Because to people to people contacts increased
with the passage of time. The relaxation of visa regime got relaxed i.e. Ukraine provided
E-visa facilty to europeon nationals, visa on arrival at the airport or border, visa free of
charges
The main objective was to promote tourism, majority of the tourist sites in western and central
ukrain. The population of these areas tilted towards Europe and away from Russia.
B) Eastern & South Eastern Ukraine: Pro Russian - they want Good relations with Russia.
Population: 25% (Max). Majority of pop is pro west.
2. The political transformation of Ukraine
The socio economic transformation of society leads to political shift and vice versa. In Ukraine,
social transformation caused political shift. From 1991 till 2008, majority of the parliamentarians
were in favour of Russia but with the passage of time, there was an increase in pro Europe
political leader. From 2008 to 2013, the president who is the chief executive and head of state
was pro Russia but prime minister and majority of the parliamentarians were pro Europe. The
PM signed the trade deal with EU. The president objected that and didn’t signed that, instead, he
accepted the 5 billion dollars package from Russia. Resultantly, parliamentary coup against the
president and he had to run away to Russia. Since then pro Europe parties are winning with
overwhelming majority. Mister Zelinsky and his party won with two third majority.
3. Increasing relations with the European Union
Ukraine signed repeated trade deals with EU specifically in 2013 and 2020. Free trade was
promoted between Ukraine and EU i.e. Tariff and non tariff barriers were relaxed. The visa
regime was relaxed as visa on arrival and airport and border, E-visa, free visa etc. Ukraine
applied for the membership of EU in 2022.
 4. Ukraine’s increasing relations with NATO
Ukraine started purchasing weapons from us, UK and France. Ukraine also participated in a
series of joint NATO military exercises esp. those which were conducted in Poland, black sea
and Baltic Sea. Ukraine also applied for the membership of NATO in 2022.
This increasing westernization of Ukraine means increasing encroachment of the west in general,
NATO in particular towards the Russian hemisphere. Resultantly, Russia was left with lesser
options to attack Ukraine.

Russia's Strategic Culture and its salient features:

1. Strategic Partnership with China, India and other countries in the world. China is the largest
purchaser of Russian hydro carbons. China is the largest provider of chips to Russian
weaponries, automobiles and other machines. China is one of the major purchaser of jet engines
from Russia. China is the largest fund provider to Russia. China and Russia have joint military
exercises. US is the common threat. In the last two decades, there have been a revival of Russia
and rise of china. Both are trying to challenge the US led world order.
1. Maintaining a Strong hold in the Neighborhood esp. in the Eastern Europe. Russia
wants to maintain its influence in the Baltic region, Nordic region, Eurasian region- the
countries like turkey, Armenia, Georgia etc., which have the Asian and European
features both. These all countries with the exception of turkey, they were either the part
of USSR or WARSA pact.
2. Uninterrupted access in the international waters esp. into the black sea, Baltic sea,
Arabian sea and Mediterranean etc. both trade access and maintaining strong military
presence. For instance, majority of the international trade carried out by Russia is trough
black sea. Furthermore, it has a complete naval fleet in black sea. This access to the
black sea is provided by Crimea. Crimea was a part of Ukraine now Russia.

3. 4. Strong Defence Relations with India

5. East-China Sea & Pacific Ocean overall
-Strategic Backyard of Russia
6. Do not allow NATO expansion into the immediate neighbourhood.
-Especially Eastern Europe Region & Baltic Region (Parts of Ex-USSR)
1991:
- After the decline of the USSR, Washington guaranteed that NATO would not expand Eastward
(Eastern EU & Baltic Region)
1999 & 2004:
- NATO gave membership to Baltic & a series of Eastern EU countries ( Estonia, Moldova,
Poland etc).

Now:
- Now Russia under Putin is Resurging

NATO: strategic culture

A trance Atlantic military organization, founded in 1949, originally 12 countries were the part,
but now it comprise upon 32 countries. The major reason for establishing the military
organization was the fear of USSR. As USSR was expanding towards eastern European countries
primarily the Scandinavian nations.
The concept of collective defense is the unique feature of NATO. Article 5 of the NATO charter
explains the concept i.e. if any NATO member nation is being attacked by an outsider, it would
be considered an attack against all. If the member nation invokes article 5, it demands military
support from the member nations, all the nations are bound to retaliate in the defense of the
attacked nation.
NATO has the largest defense budget in the world even bigger than US i.e. Approx. 1 trillion
dollar. Every member country is supposed/bound to contribute to the defense budget of NATO
and the share is decided on the GDP size of that country. Approx. 40% of the budget is being
contributed by the USA. Accordingly the number of troops and weapons are contributed.
USA and UK have taken the nuclear guarantee of Europe. US have deployed its nuclear nukes in
Germany, turkey etc. to counter the threat from Russia. The air defense system has also been
deployed in a number of countries primarily Poland. US missiles called patriot are deployed
here. NATO’s strongest installation is in Europe primarily Nordic, Baltic and Scandinavian
countries.
Cold war
Cold war was fought from 1946 and 1991 between the capitalist US and the communist USSR. It
was the war of ideologies i.e. capitalism and communism. Different military alliances were
established e.g. NATO, SEATO (US, SOUTH EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES AND PAKISTAN),
and CENTO (Central Treaty Organization: US, IRAQ, EGYPT, PAKISTAN, and UK). All these
were US led military alliances. The prime objective was to contain USSR. On the other hand,
WARSA Pact was founded by USSR. All the bordering states of USSR in the Eastern Europe
e.g. Baltic, Nordic, Eurasian states.
Cubin missile crisis
Afghan jihad
Vietnam War
Korean peninsula: north South Korea divide
The fall of USSR and US guaranteed that NATO would not expand east world. In 1991, when
USSR disintegrated into 15 states, USSR became Russia as Central Asian republics, Nordic
countries, Baltic countries etc. became independent states. US guaranteed in 1991 that NATO
would not expand east world (Nordic, Baltic and Eurasian countries). It is also called Russian
hemisphere or Russia sphere of influence. But, the promise was repeatedly violated and NATO
expanded in 1999, 2004, 2008, 2018, 2023 and 2024. Majority of expansion of NATO is in
Eastern Europe which is the Russian hemisphere.

Resurgence of Russia:

2008: attack on Georgia and the resurgence of Russia.

- Georgia was attacked by Russia
- Because Georgia was trying to enhance its trade relations with EU by signing a trade deal,
relaxing visa system with European nation and most importantly tried to become a member of
EU. Furthermore, Georgia also enhanced its relations with NATO by purchasing weapons from a
series of NATO countries, participated in joint NATO military exercises. NATO chief also
announced that an organization intends to provide membership to ?
Resultantly, Georgia was attacked by Russia
- Within 3 days the whole of Georgia was under the control of Russia.
- The country was vacated by Russia on condition that it would stay neutral in Russia-NATO
rivalry. It also agreed to allow to Russian military basis in its soil. Resultantly, Russia
successfully stopped Georgia from its westward mobility.

2014: Russia Annexed Crimea

Crimea has an immense geo strategic and geo economic importance. Russia’s access to the black
sea through Crimea. Crimea was gifted to Ukraine by Moscow in 1960’s but, when Ukraine
started its westward mobility esp. enhancing relations with NATO, Russia was left with no
option but to annex Crimea. The prime minister of Crimea announced referendum whether the
people of state want to go with Ukraine or Russia. 96% of the voters in favor of Russia . US
challenged the referendum in the UN Security Council but it was vetoed by Russia. Resultantly,
crimea was annexed by Russia.
Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022
Ukraine continued its westward mobility by enhancing relations with EU on one hand and
NATO on the other. It enraged Russia as it was direct encroachment in the Russian hemisphere.
Resultantly, Russia attacked Ukraine, it launched a full scale war in which 200,000 russian
troops and 45,000 Russian mercenaries called wagnars? Participated in the war. Russia launched
an arial, ground and naval attacks against Ukraine. Majority of the areas in the east and south
east Ukraine like Dumbask, Luhansk, Donetsk etc were captured and declared as breakable
regions. Rassia also captured majority of the sea area port of Rudasia. Russia has also captured a
series of civil nuclear reactors in Ukraine, airports and air bases and highways mostly in the east
and south east Ukraine, furthermore, Russia has been bombarding majority of the urban center
and other strategic locations across Ukraine.
Fear in Europe: who is next?

When Russia attacked Ukraine, majority of the eastern European countries got increasingly
worried about their security. Bulgaria, Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Poland, Latvia etc., they
invoked Article 4 of NATO charter, if Russia consolidates its victory in Ukraine, it would not
stop here rather it will attack other European nations.
Attack on Ukraine is an opportunity for the expansion of NATO
A series of NATO countries -Estonia, Poland, Latvia, and Bulgaria etc. invoked Article 4 and
shown their fear regarding the expansionist design of Russia. Therefore, NATO should make a
comprehensive strategy to stop Russia.
Resultantly, Russia decided to provide military and financial support to Ukraine to fight against
Russia. 26 NATO countries provided weapons to Ukraine, top of the list is USA that provided F-
16, drones, stinger missiles etc. UK and France also provided their strategic weapons to Ukraine.
Furthermore, Europe and US are the major financers of the war against Russia. Lastly, NATO
countries are also funding the war mercenaries against Russia. Resultantly, the resistance
capacity of Ukraine has tremendously increased.
The recent expansion of NATO is the result of war in Ukraine. Finland and Sweden are given the
membership of NATO. More addition of countries into the military organization means more
defense capabilities of NATO. Finland and Sweden will contribute not only in soldiers and
weapons but also in finance budget of NATO.
Finland is the immediate neighbor of Russia having approx. 1300 km border with Russia. NATO
would now deploy its troops on Finland’s border with Russia and the deployment would go to
the extent of surgical weapons, air defense system and could even be the deployment of nuclear
nukes. This has endangered Russia even more and it has to deploy more of more of its defense
on Finland’s border.
War in Ukraine and its implications
- Westernization of Ukraine
- The security concerns of Russia compelled it to attack ukraine
- Attack of Russia on Ukraine
- NATO supported Ukraine’s resistance against Russian aggression
- Implications on Ukraine (YouTube: infrastructural loss, agricultural loss, humanitarian
crisis)
- War in Ukraine and the resurgence of Russia
- War in Ukraine and the expansion of NATO
- War in Ukraine and implication on international commodities super cycle (YouTube)
- Implications on Pakistan (YouTube)

2018:
- Voldmir Zelenskyy won election in Ukraine
- He was Pro-EU & Pro-NATO
- Leading to increased trade relations with the EU.
- Applied for the membership of EU
- Increased Relation with NATO
—— Joint exercises with 10 different NATO countries (Baltic Sea, Poland etc)
—— Increased Purchases of weapons

2022:
- Ukraine applied for NATO membership
- This antagonized Moscow as previously it was guaranteed that NATO will not expanded in the
Baltic region
- Strategic suffocation felt by Russia due to NATO expansion towards its Neighbors.

- Russia attacked Ukraine

- More than 200 troops attacked Ukraine from Easter (Crimea) & South Eastern side (Belarose)

Result:
- Eastern & South eastern Ukraine captured
- EX: Luhansk, Dumbas
- 4 Regions - breakaway regions
- Referendum in these regions - now they are separate states
- International law does not recognize them as separate states
US reaction:
- US challenged the Referendums in these breakaway regions in UNSC
- Russia Vetoed in UNSC
- Note: Russia is part of P5 and has authority to VETO.

Russia:
Result cont.
- Coastal Areas with Black seaof Ukraine were Captured by Russia
- Civil nuclear Reactors
- Strategic Motorways & Highways
- Multiple cities are bombarded
- Airports and military bases bombarded

Revival of NATO:

1949:
- NAto was formed
- 5 Countries
- Main Reason for Formation: fear of Russian Aggression.

1990’s:
-Threat Declined
- Due to USSR disintegration

Since the beginning of 21st century:

- Russia is Resurging
- Under Putin Vladimir
- 2008 when Georgia was attacked by Russia
- US secretary of States in NATO conference in Brussel
- Statement: Europe must end ‘Peace Holiday’ & focus on Defence - because Russia is resurging
- 2013 & 2014: Crimea case - this previous Opinion further strengthened
Since the beginning of 21st century:
- Russia is Resurging
- Under Putin Vladimir
- 2008 when Georgia was attacked by Russia
- US secretary of States in NATO conference in Brussel
- Statement(2008): Europe must end ‘Peace Holiday’ & focus on Defence - because Russia is
resurging and becoming a threat
- 2013 & 2014: Crimea case - this previous Opinion further strengthened
- 2022: Poland, Moldova, Estonia etc - becoming Part of NATO - increasingly afraid of Russian
Attack.
- first the fear was the USSR - now it Resurging Russia.
- These countries are causing the revival of NATO.

- Due to these - Ukraine may not be given Membership

-Article 5 - collective defense
- Other NATO member countries are trying to avoid direct attack
- As this would lead to Russia become Nuclear (leading to WW3)
- At the present NATO members will not even provide Strategic Alliance to Ukraine.
- Once again due to fear of Russia becoming Nuclear.

However the Provision of weapons will continue

- 26 NATO countries are providing weapons
1. US
2.UK
3. France
4. Germany
5. Spain
6. Canada
7. Turkey etc

Policy of NATO:
- Nato will continue to Finance Ukraine war Struggle againstRussia
- through Proxy War
- They will try to exhaust Russian resources.

NATO Chief: The war may continue for years

Q: Russia Attacking Ukraine & its Implication?
Russia attacked Ukraine (Explain history)

Implication:
1. Humanitarian Crisis in Ukraine
- More than 3 million refugees flee (Poland)

2. IDP’s
3. Agricultural issues
-Ukraine is the 4th largest exporter of Grains (maze)
- Destruction of Agricultural productions

4. Infrastructure loss

5. Food Crisis

6. International Inflation
- Russia attacked Ukraine
- inreturn Sanctions on Russia
- Increase in Hydrocarbon
- Russia largest exporter of Oil and second largest of gas
- Leading to a decline in the availability of Hydrocarbons in the international market.
- Iran also has sanctions (hence no
- Russia (Played smart) - It reduced it Hydrocarbon Prices by 35%
-Petrol rates reacted 127$ - in June 2022 (reduced to 85$/barrel)
- leading to other europeans countries to increase import from Russia.
- Hydrocarbon Prices lead to Trickle down effect on the all products

PAKISTAN'S STANCE ON RUSSIA - UKRAINE CONFLICT

Pakistan Policy:
1. Supported US Against USSR
- Evidence Afghan Jihad - helped disintegrate USSR

2. Pakistan's Strategic Relations with China

- China wants Pakistan to have smooth working relations with Russia.
- Pakistan wants to diversify its defence imports in order to minimize dependency on US
- PAK also started defence Imports from russia
- Increase Recognition - SCO
- Pakistan has to increase relations with Russia & others.

Pakistan's Dependence on US & EU:

1. PAK largest export market is US and 2nd largest is EU
2. Loan dependency on IMF, WB
-Imposition of sanctions

3. GSP plus status EU

-Reduce exports

4. Defence:
-Import of weapons from Us
- F16 upgradation deal (with US)
-UK & Germany – Weapons

Policy Options of Pakistan:

1. Policy of Neutrality:
- Awkward situation - PM (IK) visit to Russia at the time when Ukraine was attacked
- This Antagonized US & EU
- Further PAK refused to declare Russian attack as invasion
- Pakistan realizes the compulsions & security concerns of Russia
——But attack on Ukraine is not the solution
——Negotiation is an option