Third Quarter

STATISTICS AND
PROBABILITY

Quarter 3 – Module 1:
Random Variables and Probability
Distribution

1
 What I need to know?

Math primarily includes a deterministic way of thinking and the way

in which math is taught in schools leads students to a deterministic way of
analyzing the world around them. On the other hand, statistics deal, by and large,
with uncertainty. Statistics uses inductive thinking, while Math uses deduction
(from specifies to generalities) (from the general to the specific).

This module was designed and written to expand the learning

opportunities in the field of Mathematics, specifically the Statistics and Probability.
It was made for you to understand the basic concepts and formulas in Statistics
and Probability that you can use not only in research, but also in making real – life
decisions. It will also be useful in different real – life situations.

The module is divided into three main lessons namely:

• Random Variables and Probability Distribution

• The Normal Distribution
• Sampling Distribution

After going through this module, you are expected to:

1. apply an appropriate random variable for a given real-life problem (such as

decision making and games of chance);
2. accurately formulate and solve real-life problems in different disciplines
involving normal distribution; and
3. apply suitable sampling and sampling distributions of the sample mean to
solve real-life problems in different disciplines.

2
 Unit
Random Variables and
1 Probability Distribution

Statistics covers a wide range of topics with a lot of applications in so many

different fields. In general, one can say that statistics is the method of analysing
data, which can either be quantitative (numerical) or qualitative (categorical, as
transformed by researchers into numbers). But statistics is not just about that. It
also includes the whole process of using scientific methods to answer questions
that will help us in making decisions. These methods can be used in answering
questions like:

• What type and how much data are needed?

• How are we going to organize the data?
• How are we going to analyze and interpret the data?
• What are the conclusions that can be drawn from the analyzed data?

Statistics – is a branch of science that deals with the collection,

presentation, analysis, and interpretation of data.

Descriptive statistics – concerned with collecting, describing,

and analyzing the subset of data without drawing conclusions or
inferences about the set of data.

Inferential statistics – concerned with the analysis of the

subset of data leading to predictions or inferences about the said
set of data.

Population – is the entire set from which the sample is drawn. It

is the set of all elements of a given observational units under
study with at least one characteristic in common.

Sample – is the subset of population.

Parameter – the numerical measure that describes the

population of interest under study.

Statistic – is the numerical measure of the sample.

3
 Lesson
1 Basic Concepts of P robability

It is a truth very certain that when it is not in our power to determine what is
true we ought to follow what is most probable.

- René Descartes

What’s In?

Do the coin toss experiment. Record the number of heads or tails that will
occur as you toss a coin. Find the probability of a coin toss.

Coin Toss Experiment

A B C

Toss a coin 10 times Toss a coin 20 times Toss a coin 30 times

No. of heads: _______ No. of heads: _______ No. of heads: _______

No. of tails: _________ No. of tails: _________ No. of tails: _________

Write the number in Write the number in Write the number in

fraction form. fraction form. fraction form.

Heads: Heads: Heads:

Tails: Tails: Tails:

1. How many times did the heads appear? the tails?

2. Add the fractions for the outcomes of heads.
3. Add the fractions for the outcome of tails.
4. What do the results tell you?

In mathematics, economics, finance, natural and social sciences, medicine,

astronomy, and many other areas, we are all aware that statistics are very useful.
For instance, in making decisions for his company to be successful, a businessman
must be very quick and accurate. Statistics allow businessmen to decide which

4
products to manufacture according to the taste of the customers. In addition,
statistical methods can be used to more effectively verify the quality of goods. Thus,
all of a businessman's activities are based on statistical information. Through the
use of experimentation, this statistical information can be collected.

What’s New?

1.1 RANDOM EXPERIMENT, SAMPLE SPACE, AND EVENT

The coin toss experiment is a form of a random experiment. A random

experiment is an action or process that leads to one of several possible outcomes.
Here are some examples to illustrate random experiments and their possible
outcomes.
Random Experiment Possible Outcomes

Tossing a coin
{Head, Tail}

{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Casting a die

Drawing a card from a standard deck of

cards.

{13 clubs, 13 spades, 13 hearts, 13 diamonds}

5
 Random experiment – is an action or process that leads
to one of several possible outcomes.

Collectively exhaustive – means that the possible

outcomes must be included.

Mutually exclusive – means that no outcomes can occur

at the same time.

Sample space – is the list of all possible outcomes of an

experiment.

Event – is any subset of the sample space consisting of one

or more sample points to which a probability is assigned.

For example, in the coin toss that we did earlier, the outcomes head and tail
are collectively exhaustive, because they encompass the entire range of possible
outcomes. In other instances, it is impossible to have an outcome other than the
two when tossing a coin. And when you toss a coin, the result will be either a head
or tail but not both. Thus, we can say that the outcomes are mutually exclusive.

Example: Perform a random experiment by tossing a coin twice.

Head

Head
Tail
Tossing a coin
twice
Head
Tail

Tail

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Event: Getting at least 1 head.

E = {TH, HT, HH}

6
 𝑛(3) = 3

1.2 PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

It is very important to understand the principles of random trials, sample

space, and events so that we can measure the probability of an event. Probability is
a numerical measure of the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. The probability
of the occurrence of an event P(E) has the following properties.

1 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐸) ≤ 1
1.1 𝑃(𝐸) = 0, if the event cannot occur;
1.2 𝑃(𝐸) = 1, if the event occurs every time;
1.3 Otherwise, the probability is a fraction between 0 to 1.

A listing of all of the outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space (S)
of the experiment and n(S) represents the number of outcomes in the sample
space.

If n(E) represents the number of outcomes in event E, then:

Example 1: Find the probability of getting exactly 2 heads when tossing a coin
twice.

Solution: 𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}

Event: Getting exactly 2 heads when tossing a coin twice

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃 (𝐸 ) = 𝑠(𝐸)

1
𝑃(𝐸) = = 25%
4

Answer: The probability of getting exactly 2 heads when a coin is tossed

twice is 𝑜𝑟 25%

7
Example 2: Find the probability of drawing a face card from a standard deck of
cards.

Solution: Since there are 52 cards in a standard deck of cards, then

𝑛(𝑆) = 52.

Event: Drawing a face card from a standard deck of cards. How many
face cards are there?

𝐸 = {𝐽♦, 𝑄♦, 𝐾♦, 𝐽♥, 𝑄♥, 𝐾♥, 𝐽, ♣, 𝑄♣, 𝐾♣, 𝐽♠, 𝑄♣, 𝐾♣}

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃 (𝐸 ) =
𝑠(𝐸)
12 3
𝑃 (𝐸) = 52 = 13 = 23%

Answer: The probability of drawing a face card from 52 cards is or

approximately 23%

Counting Techniques in Probability

Computing for the probability of an event will be easier if the total number of
possible outcomes are known. To determine the total number of possible outcomes
in a random experiment, counting techniques may be used.

1. Fundamental Counting Principle – For a sequence of two events in which

the first event can occur m ways and the second event can occur n ways, the
events together can occur a total of 𝑚 ∙ 𝑛 ways.

Notation: The factorial symbol (!) denotes the product of decreasing positive
whole numbers.

Ex.

4! = 4 ∙ 3 ∙ 2 ∙ 1 = 24

By special definition,

0! = 1.

EXAMPLE 1.1

There are 21 novels and 18 volumes of poetry on a reading list for a college
English course. How many different ways can a student select one novel and
one volume of poetry to read during the quarter?

8
Solution: There are 21 choices from the first category and 18 for the second, so
there are

21 × 18 = 378 possibilities

EXAMPLE 1.2

A quiz consists of 3 true-or-false questions. In how many ways can a student

answer the quiz?

Solution: There are 3 questions. Each question has 2 possible answers (true or
false), so the quiz may be answered in

2 × 2 × 2 = 8 different ways

2. Permutation – is an arrangement of objects without repetition and where

order is important. A permutation of n objects, arranged in groups of size r
without repetition and where order is important is

𝑛!
𝑛 𝑃𝑟 = 𝑃(𝑛, 𝑟) =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!

EXAMPLE 2.1

In how many ways can a president, a treasurer and a secretary be chosen

from among 7 candidates?

Solution: The problem involves 7 candidates taken 3 at a time.

7! 7×6×5×4!
𝑃(7,3) = (7−3)! = = 210
4!

There are 210 possible ways to choose a president, a treasurer and a secretary
be chosen from among 7 candidates.

EXAMPLE 2.2

A zip code contains 5 digits. How many different zip codes can be made with
the digits 0–9 if no digit is used more than once and the first digit is not 0?

Solution: We can’t include the first digit in the formula because 0 is not
allowed.
For the first position, there are 9 possible choices (since 0 is not
allowed). For the next 4 positions, we are selecting from 9 digits.

9
 9! 9×8×7×6×5!
9 × 𝑃(9,4) = 9 × (9−4)! = 9 × = 27,216 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
5!

3. Combination – is an arrangement of objects without repetition and where

order is not important. A combination of n objects, arranged in groups of
size r without repetition and where order is not important is:

𝑛!
𝑛 𝐶𝑟 = 𝐶(𝑛, 𝑟) =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

where: n = total number of objects r =

the size of each combination

EXAMPLE 3.1

In how many ways can a coach choose three swimmers from among five
swimmers?

Solution: There are 5 swimmers to be taken 3 at a time

𝑛!
𝐶(𝑛, 𝑟) =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!
5! 5! 5 × 4 × 3!
𝐶(5,3) = = = = 10 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
(5 − 3)! 3! 2! × 3! 2 × 1 × 3!

“What’s the difference between

permutations and
combinations?”

Permutations vs Combinations

In English we use the word "combination" loosely, without thinking if the order of
things is important. In other words:

10
 “My fruit salad is a combination of apples, grapes and bananas" We
don't care what order the fruits are in, they could also be "bananas, grapes
and apples" or "grapes, apples and bananas", its the same fruit salad.

"The combination to the safe is 472". Now we do care about the order.
"724" won't work, nor will "247". It has to be exactly 4-7-2.

So, in Mathematics we use more precise language:

• When the order doesn’t matter, it is a Combination.

• When the order does matter, it is a Permutation.

Relative Frequency Approach

The second approach of assigning the probability of an event is the empirical

approach also known as relative frequency approach. The relative frequency
approach is the method of finding the probability that is based from cumulated
historical data or found through observations and not from theories. For example,
the chance that it will rain today is 80% because it rained for four days in the past
five days. The probability using the relative frequency of an event (E) can be
computed using the formula:

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑁

where: n(E) = the number of times the event occurred

N = the total number of opportunities for the event to occur.

EXAMPLES

In his entire career, a certain PBA player hooped 4,503 out of 6,575 free
throws. What is the probability that his next free throw will be successful?

Solution: 𝑃 49%

Answer: The probability that the PBA player’s next free throw will be successful
is approximately 68.49%.

EXAMPLES

If you cast a fair die 25 times and 8 of them result in a “6”, what is the

empirical probability observed in this event?

11
 𝑛(𝐸) 8
Solution: 𝑃(𝐸) = = = 32%
𝑁 25

Answer: The probability of getting a “6” is 32%.

What’s More?

Solve the following problems and show your complete solutions.

1. A couple is planning to have three children. What is the probability that:

a) all of the children will be girls?
b) two of the children will be boys?
c) at least 2 of the children will be girls?
d) the couple will have 2 boys at the most?
2. In rolling a pair of dice once, find the probability that the sum of the results
will be:
a) 5
b) 9
c) at least 10
d) at most 4
e) 8

12
 What I have learned?

Solve the following problems and show your complete solution.

1. How many permutations of 4 different letters are there, chosen from the
twenty six letters of the alphabet?
2. How many different committees of 5 people can be chosen from 10 people?
3. A special type of password consists of four different letters of the alphabet,
where each letter is used only once. How many different possible passwords
are there?

13
 Lesson
Addition and Multiplication
2 Rules of Probability

The 50-50-90 rule: anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something
right, there’s a 90% probability you’ll get it wrong.

- Andy Rooney

What’s In?

Form a group with three members. (You may include your family members,
neighbors, etc.) Each individual must have a pair of dice. In the game, Person A
gets one point when the sum of the results ranges from 2 to 5. Person B gets one
point when the sum of the results ranges from 6 to 8. Person C gets one point when
the sum ranges from 9 to 12. The person with the highest number of points will be
the winner. Use the tables on the next page to record the results.

Rolling Two Dice Experiment

ROUND 1 ROUND 2

ROLL PERSON ROLL PERSON

A B C A B C

1 1

2 2

3 3

4 4

5 5

6 6

7 7

8 8

9 9

10 10

1. Who won the game? ______________________________________________________

2. Does it seem fair? If not, who has the advantage? Why? ____________________

14
 In previous lesson, we only considered simple events in a random experiment.
In this lesson, we will learn about compound events consisting of two or more
events. We will also discuss and learn how to apply the addition rule of probability
when dealing with compound events.

What’s New?

2.1 ADDITION RULE OF PROBABILITY

Addition rule of probability will help us solve probability problems that

involve two events. Events can either be mutually exclusive or non-mutually
exclusive. Mutually exclusive events are those events which do not have any
sample point in common. Events A and B are mutually exclusive if there are no
elements in A that are found in B. This is characterized by the conjunction “or”. For
example, in a random experiment wherein we draw a card from a standard deck of
cards, we have drawing an ace as Event A and drawing a king as Event B.
Determine the sample space of the two events.

Aces Kings

A♠ K♠

A♥ A♣ K♥ K♣

A♦ K♦

Since the two events do not have any sample point in common, we can conclude
that the two events are mutually exclusive.

The probability of two mutually exclusive events A and B can be found using
the formula:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

where: P(A) = probability of event A

P(B) = probability of event B

15
Example 1:
What is the probability of getting at least one head in tossing a coin twice
or getting a “5” in casting a die once.

Solution: 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐷)

𝑃
𝑃

Answer: The probability of getting at least one head in tossing a coin twice or

getting a “5” in casting a die is .

Example 2:
What is the probability of getting “4” or “5” as the sum of the results
in casting a pair of dice?

Solution: List the sample points.

Die 1 Die 2

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1+1=2 3 4 5 6 7

2 2+1=3 4 5 6 7 8

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based from the table, there are 36 sample points. Hence, 𝑛(𝑆) =
36. Then,

𝑃(4 ∪ 5) = 𝑃(4) + 𝑃(5)

𝑃
𝑃

Answer: The probability of getting a “4” or a “5” as the sum of the results in
casting a pair of dice is .

If there are elements in A that are also present in B, A and B are said to be
non – mutually exclusive events. Non – mutually exclusive events are events that
have at least one common element or point of intersection. For example, in a
random experiment wherein we draw a card from a standard deck of cards, we

16
have drawing a heart as Event A and drawing a king as Event B. Determine the
sample space of two events.

Hearts Kings

A♥
Q♥
2♥ 8♥
K♣
3♥ 7♥ J♥
K♥ K♠
4♥ 6♥ K♦
5♥ 9♥
10 ♥

Since the two events have one sample point in common, we can conclude that the
two events are non – mutually exclusive events.

The probability of non – mutually exclusive events A and B can be found using
the formula:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).

where: 𝑃(𝐴) = probability of A

𝑃(𝐵) = probability of B

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = probability of A intersection B

Example 3: What is the probability of drawing a heart (H) or a king (K) from a
standard deck of cards?

Solution: 𝑃(𝐻 ∪ 𝐾) = 𝑃(𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐾) − 𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝐾)

𝑃 𝑜𝑟

Answer: The probability of drawing a heart or a king from a standard deck of

cards is .

2.2 GENERALIZED MULTIPLICATION RULE

Two events are said to be independent events if the occurrence or non –

occurrence of one event gives no information about the likeliness of the occurrence
of the other. This means that the information about one event does not change the
probability of the other event.

In tossing a coin two times, let event A be the probability of getting a head in
the first toss and let event B be the probability of getting a head on the second toss.
The probability of event A was not affected by the probability of event B. Hence, the
two events are independent. If two events, A and B, are independent, then the

17
probability can be computed using the generalized multiplication rule in which the
probability of A and B is equal to the product of their individual probabilities.

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)

where: 𝑃(𝐴) = probability of A

𝑃(𝐵) = probability of B
Example:
Two cards are drawn in succession with replacement. What is the
probability of drawing an ace (A) on the first draw and a face card (F) on
the second draw?

Solution: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐹)

𝑃

Answer: The probability of drawing an ace card on the first draw and a face card

on the second draw is .

What’s More?

Answer the following questions.

1. What is the probability of drawing a face card or a red card from a

standard deck of cards?
2. What is the probability of drawing a black card or an eight from a
standard deck of cards?
3. A box has 4 blue marbles, 3 green marbles, and 5 red marbles. If a
marble is drawn at random, what is the probability of drawing:
a. a red marble or green marble?
b. a blue marble or a red marble?
c. a marble that is not red?
d. a marble that is not yellow?

18
 What I have learned?

Solve the following problems and show your complete solution.

1. Two dice are tossed. Find the probability of getting a sum of:
a. 3 or 6
b. 9 or 12
c. 2 or 7 or 10
d. at most 3 or at least 11
2. Two cards are drawn with replacement. What is the probability of drawing an
ace (A) in the first draw and a heart (H) in the second draw?
3. A coin is tossed two times. What is the probability of getting a head in the
first toss and a tail in the second toss?

19