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A C T I V I T Y No. 4.
Activity Title: Basic Concepts of Probability
Learning Target: Identify the basic concepts of probability.
Concept Notes:
Probability is the chance that something will happen. Events cannot be predicted with total
certainty. We can say, “How likely they are to happen.”
Probability Experiment is a chance process that leads to a well-defined result called an

outcome.
Examples: Flipping a coin

Rolling a die
Outcome is the result of a single trial of an experiment.

Experiment Outcome
Flipping a coin Head (H)/ Tail (T)
Rolling a die 1/2/3/4/5/6
Sample space is the set of all the possible outcomes or sample points.
Sample point is just one of the possible outcomes.

Experiment Sample Space Sample Point
Flipping two coins HH, HT, TH, TT HH
Rolling a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 5
Rolling a coin and a die H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6 T3
simultaneously T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6
Drawing a card from a deck 13 Diamonds, 13 Hearts, 13 Queen of Hearts
of 52 cards Spades, 13 Clubs (Ace, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack,
Queen, King)
“Queen” is not a sample point because there are four Queens which are four different sample
points in a deck of cards.
Event is any set of one or more outcomes satisfying some given conditions.
Examples:
a. Getting a TTT when flipping a coin thrice
b. Choosing a “Queen” from a deck of cards (any of the 4 Queens)
c. Getting an “odd number” (1, 3, or 5) when rolling a die
Exercise: Use the basic concepts of probability to identify the following. Write each answer on the
illustration board.
1. 5/6
2. Tail
3. 50%
4. Right, Wrong
5. KING of Spades
6. Rolling an odd number (1, 3 or 5)
7. Flipping a 10-peso coin five times
8. Getting a head in a single toss of coin
9. The chance that something will happen
10. The result of a single trial of an experiment
11. Tossing a coin and rolling a die simultaneously
12. 12 Set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
13. Guessing the number of marbles in a container
14. Choosing an ACE from a deck of standard cards
15. A chance process which leads to well – defined results
Name: Date:
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A C T I V I T Y No. 4.
Activity Title: Probability of Events.
Learning Target: Explain and interpret the probability of an event .
Concept Notes:
The probability of an event, P (event), is a number from 0 to 1 which tells how likely the event is to happen.
Probability Rules
1. The probability of any event is a number (either a fraction, a decimal or a percent) from 0 to 1.
Example: The weather forecast shows a 70% rain
P (rain) = 70%
2. If an event will never happen, then its probability is 0.

Example: When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting an 8.
0
Since the sample space consists of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get an 8. Hence, P (9) = = 0.
9
3. If an event is sure to happen, then the probability is 1.

Example: When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less than 7?
Since all the outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} are less than 7,
6
P (number less than 7) = = 1
6
4. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.
1
Example: In rolling a fair die, each outcome in the sample space has a probability of .
6
Hence, the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is 1.
1 2
If a fair coin is flipped, P (T) = and P (H) =
2 2
If you flipped the coin ten times and got the following outcomes: H, H. H, T, H, T, T, H, H, what is the
probability that the last outcome will also be a Head (H)? How did you arrive at your answer?
Number of favorable outcomes
P (event) =
Number of all possible outcomes
Number of expected events

P (event) =
Number of all possible outcomes
Examples:
1. What is the probability of getting a HEART from a deck of cards?
13 1
P (heart) = =
52 4
2. There are 25 marbles in a container: 4 are red, 5 are blue and 11 are yellow. What is the
probability that a blue marble will be picked?
5 1
P (blue marble) = =
20 4
Sometimes, getting an event affects the outcome of another event. Take a look at these examples:
1. Five red candies are left in a bag of 40 different colored candies.
a. What is the probability that you will get a red candy?
How did you get your answer?
b. What are your chances of getting a red one when you pick again?
Do you have the same answer? Why?
How many candies are now in the bag?
How many red candies are there?
Getting the next candy is affected by the result of the first attempt. Every time you get a piece
of candy from a bag, the chance of getting a red one will change. These are called dependent events.
2. Flipping a Coin
a. When you flip a coin, what is the probability of heads landing up?
b. If you flip it again, what is the probability of getting tails?
The two events do not affect each other. They are independent events.

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Name: Date:

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Probability Experiment is a chance process that leads to a well-defined result called an

Examples: Flipping a coin

Outcome is the result of a single trial of an experiment.

Sample point is just one of the possible outcomes.

Learning Target: Explain and interpret the probability of an event .

2. If an event will never happen, then its probability is 0.

3. If an event is sure to happen, then the probability is 1.

Number of expected events

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