Colegio de la Purisima Concepcion

The School of the Archdiocese of Capiz

Roxas City

Self-Learning Kit in DRRR

VULNERABILITY PART II
(1st Quarter – Week 4)

Prepared by:
KYLLE M. FIRMALINO, LPT
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

_____________________________________________________________

LESSON 4 Vulnerability Part 2

_____________________________________________________________

- Kylle M. Firmalino, LPT

“Preparedness, when properly pursued, is a way of life, not a sudden, spectacular program.”

- Spencer W. Kimball, 1976

PRAYER

“In the name of the Father and of the Son, and the Holy Spirit. Amen.”
“Jesus, great teacher and our Lord, you were sent by the Father to teach us that He is the source
of all that is good, the fount of wisdom and knowledge. Gathered today in our own house, we ask
you to send the Holy Spirit to help us understand our lesson and guide us to be a good student.
Inspire our teacher, may he/she be your effective instrument and that from him/her we may seek
goodness of life you prepared for us in the future. Amen”

In the previous module, we have learned that vulnerability is the inability to resist
a hazard or to respond when a disaster has occurred. In this module, we will be
identifying vulnerabilities of different elements exposed to specific hazards.

This module was organized and written to help you understand the nature of
disasters and the effects of disasters.
The module is divided into two lessons, namely:

• Lesson 1 – Vulnerabilities of different elements exposed to specific hazards

• Lesson 2 – Hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities

Today, I set a challenge for you. These are the following:

 Recognize vulnerabilities of different elements exposed to specific hazards

 Differentiate among hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities and explain the
relationship of the three to disaster risk.

1
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

What I Know

Identify the following statements as True or False. Write your answer on the space
provided before the number.

_____1. A hazard has the potential to be dangerous and harmful to humans.

_____2. Hazards that occur in an unpopulated area remain disasters.
_____3. Disasters are hazards that have become ‘active’, harming humanity in the
process.
_____4. An active volcano is a hazard, but once it explodes and destroys nearby
population, it is considered a disaster.
_____5. Oil leaks considered hazards as they affect the health of marine life in the ocean
and threaten important food sources.
_____6. An underwater volcano is a disaster if it affects nearby population by destroying
food sources and property on a large scale.
_____7. A hurricane in the middle of the ocean that is nowhere near to land is a disaster.
_____8. Elements exposed to different hazard refers to the element at risk from a natural
or manmade hazard event.
_____9. Disaster risk is the potential disaster losses (in terms of lives, health status,
livelihoods, assets and services) which could occur to a particular community
or a society over some specified future time period.
_____10. Exposure refers to the elements at risk from a natural or man-made hazard
event like humans, buildings and business activity.
_____11. Vulnerability refers to the impact a hazard has on people, infrastructure and
the economy.
_____12. Hazard models are used to develop disaster scenarios for emergency response

and recovery to improve community awareness

2
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

_____13. Risk Acceptance is an informed decision to accept the possible consequences

and likelihood of a particular risk.

_____14. Risk Transfer involves shifting of the burden of risk to another party. One of the
most common forms of risk transfer is Insurance.
_____15. Risk Reduction refers to the application of appropriate techniques to reduce
the likelihood of risk occurrence and its consequences.

Vulnerabilities of different
1 elements exposed to
specific hazards
In the previous module, we have learned that vulnerability is the inability to resist
a hazard or to respond when a disaster has occurred. In this module, we will be
identifying vulnerabilities of different elements exposed to specific hazards .

Let us first acquaint ourselves on terms that we will meet in our discussions.

In simple terms, a hazard is a dangerous situation or event that carries a threat to

humans. A disaster is an event that actually harms humans and disrupts the operations
of society. Hazards will be considered disasters once they affect humans, but if they
occur in an unpopulated area, they will remain hazards. A good example of this is an
underwater volcano. If it explodes and humans are not affected, it remains a hazard.
But if it affects a nearby population by destroying food sources and property on a large
scale, it will be seen as a disaster.

To classify something as a hazard, it must have the potential to be dangerous and

harmful to humans. Hazards are a normal occurrence on our planet and cannot be
avoided. Remember, a hazard has all the potential to be harmful, but won’t actively

3
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

harm humans or our environment. For example, a hurricane in the middle of the ocean
that is nowhere near to land could be a simple hazard. It is unlikely that it will ever affect
humans on a large scale, running out of momentum before it reaches our shores.
However, if that hurricane does make it to land, the destruction it would cause upon a
town or city would be deemed a disaster. To classify something as a hazard is to
acknowledge the threat to life, health, environment or property.

For a disaster to take place, the normal operations of a human community must
be completely disrupted. We have many examples of natural disasters caused by
earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes. The damage must be widespread enough to
alter the normal operations of the community affected. In modern society, the event of
a disaster sparks an international involvement and nearby countries or states aid in
recovery operations.

Disasters are hazards that have become ‘active’, harming humanity in the
process. A volcanic eruption is the perfect example of a hazard that becomes a
disaster. If the volcano is active, it will be deemed a hazard, but once it explodes and
wreaks havoc on the nearby population, it is considered a disaster. Oil leaks can also
be considered disasters as they affect the health of marine life in the ocean and
threaten important food sources.

When people talk about hazards and disasters, you will often hear the term
‘natural’ thrown in. This refers to acts of nature, like earthquakes or tsunamis. They are
the most common type of hazard/disaster, but there can also be man-made ones. For
example, a chemical leak or the explosion of a power station could easily be disaster-
type situations. Sometimes man-made structures add to the impact of a hazard and
together they create an even bigger disaster. In Japan, a nuclear power station was
damaged by an earthquake and exploded. The combination of a natural hazard and
a man-made structure resulted in a massive disaster that killed people and destroyed
property.

As hazards and disasters happen, there are different elements exposed to these
circumstances. Elements exposed to different hazard refers to the element at risk from
a natural or manmade hazard event. These include human beings, dwellings or

4
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

households and communities, building structures, public facilities and infrastructure

assets, public transport system, agricultural commodities and environmental assets.

Activity 1

In this activity, we will read and analyze a story produced by VERA Files under a
project supported by the Internews’ Earth Journalism Network, which aims to empower
journalists from developing countries to cover the environment more effectively. VERA
Files is put out by veteran journalists taking a deeper look at current issues. Vera is Latin
for “true.”

28 years after Pinatubo: Eruption, lahar, and resilience

Johnna Villaviray Giolagon (Vera Files) - February 5, 2019 - 1:12pm

PAMPANGA, Philippines — Come February 10, when the townsfolk of Bacolor go to the
San Guillermo Parish Church for their fiesta celebration, they will enter the worship place
through the upper windows, as what they have been doing the past 28 years since
Mount Pinatubo erupted and altered their lives in ways they never imagined. The San
Guillermo Parish Church, originally built in 1576, stands just off the main highway linking
Bacolor town to the rest of Pampanga province. Rebuilt in 1886, the structure is now
literally half of its previous glory. The church’s bottom half is buried under six meters of
lahar that swallowed the town and most of the province. It still serves the town’s faithful
who access the building through what used to be second windows converted into
doorways.

“All of Bacolor is buried under lahar especially the downtown area where the church
is,” says Renato Solidum, chief of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and
Seismology. Solidum was already serving the agency when Mount Pinatubo woke up
from her 500-year slumber in 1991 following a 7.7 magnitude earthquake that shook
northern parts of the country a year earlier.

5
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

On June 15, 1991, the afternoon sky turned pitch black as ash, rock and other volcanic
material were ejected into the sky. On the same day, Typhoon Diding (international
name Nunya) crossed 75 kilometers northeast of Pinatubo. While considered by
meteorologists as a minimal typhoon, Diding nonetheless dispersed volcanic ash all over
Luzon and as far as the middle of the Pacific Ocean and mainland Southeast Asia.

After Pinatubo heaved her final explosion, survivors of her wrath emerged from their
homes and sanctuaries to a world coated by or buried deep under meters of gray
volcanic ash. The eruption of the then little known volcano destroyed or damaged
houses, farmlands and infrastructure and claimed the lives of dozens of people and
displaced hundreds of thousands of families. It was one of the world’s largest volcanic
eruptions in the past century, geologists say.

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and
Seismology, file

Jolts and ash fall

“We thought the morning after the eruption it was all over. Then we realized it was
only just the beginning because of the lahars that came every year,” said local historian
Robert Tantingco, director of the Kapampangan Studies in Holy Angel University.

When Pinatubo erupted, it spewed out 7-10 cubic kilometers of ash that blanketed
areas as far away as Manila in a coat of fine, gray ash. Much of that was dumped on
the slopes of the volcano. Pyroclastic flows easily overran the slopes of Pinatubo,
engulfing gullies as deep as 200 meters. The Aeta tribes that lived on the slopes lost their
entire world. The mountain and centuries-old forests they knew were wiped out and
replaced by a barren and unfriendly place. The US Clark Air Base located several
kilometers from Pinatubo was abandoned after it was buried in volcanic ash. The
American military eventually closed the installation. While residents were forewarned of
the eruption, nobody knew what to expect.

“What I imagined was Mount Mayon. We will watch it from afar. We would watch a
trickle of glowing lavas and we will take pictures from a safe distance,” recalled

6
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

Tantingco, who was then 31 years old.

He was wrong. Tantingco was at the family home in Mabalacat town when the sky
turned dark around noontime on June 15, 1991. Pinatubo had finally erupted, ejecting
a column of ash and other materials up to 34 kilometers into the air.

“I was bewildered by it,” he recalled. “I could hear the mudflow in the brook near our
house. It was not the usual splashing water; it was something heavy, something sinister.”

The darkness went on and on even as Typhoon Diding pummeled the roof with rain and
then, later on, with rocks and other volcanic debris. Earthquakes shook the ground every
few minutes, exponentially adding to the anxiety of those in the vicinity.

“We were huddled together like frightened animals, crying…Of all the things that
frightened us that night, it was the earthquakes,” Tantingco said. “It was continuous.
They were hard jolts. I realized (later) it was because of the falling rocks, collapsing rocks
from the crater, the rim of the volcano.”

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 altered the landscape as well as the lives
of the people in affected areas. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, file

Like in a twilight zone

There was a frantic flow of vehicle and pedestrian traffic away from the area that
night. People were fleeing because of fears of a nuclear explosion from the nearby
Clark air base. There were also unfounded rumors in the radio that “Pinatubo was
spewing so much material that it was emptying the underground, that whole province
would collapse.”

Another version of the story was that “there was a fissure or a crack on the slope of the
mountain that will cause a slide, a massive landslide that will bury the province.” “I
honestly felt I was going to die,” Tantingco said. “And then sometime during the night,
things just started getting weird because the sound was already muffled. You can’t hear
anything,” he said. “The ash fall was so thick the soundwaves could not penetrate the
wall of ash fall. Everything was quiet. You could not hear the rocks fall on the roof

7
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

because there’s a layer of ash.”“Then the orange, red, green flashes of lighting crossing
the sky, then the earthquakes, Tantingco continued. The general feeling that you’re in
the Twilight Zone.” The next day, the sun came out and the ground stopped shaking.

“I waited patiently for daybreak. And when it finally came, everything was grey,
everything was destroyed,” the historian narrated. He stepped out of the front door to
an empty neighborhood heavily dusted with volcanic ash. Not long afterward, a friend
came over; they only had hugs of relief for each other. “It had been a traumatic night
and the only response was to cry. It was the first time that I cried.”

Tantingco stayed in the family home by himself after his family evacuated to Baguio
City, about 155 kilometers away, shortly after the eruption. Eventually his father came
home, and then his mother. After a while, even the little ones came home. Life was
never the same after that fateful day. Despite that, the Tantingcos stayed, along with
most Kapampangans. They all adapted to life after a night of what seemed like the
Apocalypse every time the lahars charged down to the lowlands whenever it rained.

Landscape changed by lahar

Lahar is a rampaging slurry of thick debris – pyroclastic material and ash – and water
washed down by the rain from the slopes of Pinatubo. The lahar is then delivered to
lowland towns and cities through rivers originating from the volcano – the Tarlac,
Sacobia-Bamban, Abacan, and the Pasig Potrero Rivers. Lahar flows buried half of the
San Guillermo Parish Church as well as the Bamban Bridge in the North Luzon
Express. “Immediately after the eruption, you can see the smoother slopes of the
volcano because river valleys were covered,” Solidum, the country’s chief
volcanologist, said. “In satellite images you can actually see the difference. Before the
eruption you can see rough surfaces in the slopes of the volcano and then after, you
see smooth because of these thick deposits.”

Unfortunately, the lahars didn’t stay on the slopes. In the years following the eruption,
seasonal monsoon rains eroded lahar deposits and carried them down to the low lands
– Pampanga, Tarlac and Zambales. The lahars follow the path of the river systems. The
provinces of Tarlac and Zambales were relatively lucky compared to Pampanga, where
the rivers were circuitous and wound around population centers.

“(Lahars) go towards the sea. And the path towards the sea – which is Manila Bay for
Pampanga – is circuitous,” Tantingco said. “Here in Pampanga, rivulets and rivers and
canals were located in the middle of communities - towns, villages, and cities – before
emptying into Manila Bay. All of that was buried.”

And among Pampanga towns and cities, Bacolor was worst hit. Nineteen out of her 21
towns were buried under lahar. In some areas, only roofs could be seen where a
barangay once stood. Bacolor’s original name was Bakulud, a Kapampangan word
meaning high ground. As it turns out, Bacolor is elevated ground precisely because

8
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

pyroclastic materials from Pinatubo is routinely dumped over the area, piling up over
the years. Regular lahar attacks from Mt. Pinatubo stopped only in 1995. By this time,
Bacolor had reclaimed its previous status as elevated land.

Lakes are formed, rivers diverted

Another phenomenon brought about by lahar flows is the damming of river systems. The
mouths of rivulets are essentially plugged, cutting off the tributaries from the main river,
flooding the adjacent area, and basically creating a lake because of the absence of
drainage. The most spectacular of these lakes is the Mt Pinatubo crater lake in Botolan
town, now a major tourist draw in Zambales. It was formed after the eruption destroyed
the volcano’s original summit, leaving a caldera that eventually filled with water. It is as
deep as 600 meters in some points. These lakes are as much as worry for scientists as
rampaging lahars.

A Fact Sheet on Pinatubo issued by the US Geological Services says: “After a few weeks
or months, the lakes overtop and quickly erode through their dams, releasing large
volumes of water that generate major lahars. Because these large and powerful
mudflows can occur without warning, even when there is no rain, they are among the
most dangerous of Pinatubo's lahars.” “One lake on the Pasig-Potrero River, on the
volcano's east flank, has formed and broken out three times (1991, 1992, and 1994),
creating giant lahars that have killed dozens of people,” it said.

The stillness of Mapanuepe Lake is belies the tragedy that it is borne out of. The lake was
created when lahars blocked the mouth of the Mapanuepe River, flooding the valley
and its settlements. Photo by Terence Gonzalves.

Mapanuepe Lake in San Marcelino town is another one of these lakes. “This was an
actual event happening in front of my eyes,” Solidum recalled. “When the lahar was
making the corner or the intersection of the Marella river with the Mapanuepe river
becoming shallower, you would see the water going upstream.”

Tributaries are normally shallower than the main river. With the Mapanuepe River heavily
silted with lahar, it became shallower. Eventually the exit to the Marella River got

9
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

plugged, drowning the adjacent communities. Today, the sole reminder of the former
barangay is the church steeple jutting out of middle of the lake. But while areas like
Bacolor and the Mapanuepe Valley were practically erased off the face of the planet,
other areas were relatively spared from rampaging lahars.
That’s because lahar flows sometimes dam certain rivers thus diverting lahars to other
areas.

“They cannibalized each other during the Mt Pinatubo eruption. The alteration of the
slopes was so extreme the rivers were diverted one day then they were back the next
day,” Tantingco, the local historian, said. For instance, in 1992, secondary eruptions
eroded the partition between the Sacobia and Abacan rivers, diverting all the lahars to
the Sacobia River. “People in the low lands don’t know when the lahars are going to
come. One day the lahars are flowing in Sacobia the next day they are flowing in
Abacan because they keep cannibalizing each other,” Tantingco explained.

Movement of people

All this flooding is because the rivers were heavily silted with lahars initially dumped on
the slopes of the volcano and then eroded downstream by the rains. “The land became
higher so that there are areas that get flooded when it didn’t get flooded before the
eruption. There are areas where the floods take weeks before they go down,” explained
engineer Art Daag, head of Phivolcs’ geology office. The local governments of
Pampanga have since reconstructed land titles for private land especially in population
centers.

Some were able to rebuild over the property they lost and pick up almost where they
left off. Others – sometimes whole communities – had to relocate to settlements
designated by government. Following the eruption and the lahars, government
undertook hazard mapping to determine which areas are safe for habitation. Some of
the original settlements now fall within danger zones. It took many, many years before
vegetation returned to Pinatubo but it took the mountain’s original Aeta dwellers
decades to come home. There are Aeta tribes, for instance, already granted titles to
ancestral domain and who have reestablished a community up the mountain, that
continue to live in lowland resettlement communities. This circumstance is not unique to
upland people.

“Now you will find resettlement areas in Mabalacat, a whole town that was not there
before. But there are communities of thousands. They never went back,” Tantingco said.
“During elections, for example, the mayor running in Bacolor has to go there
(Mabalacat). Geographically, they are in Mabalacat but…you will find yourself already
in a place populated by non-Mabalacat voters.” He continued, “They brought with
them their own culture, their own community life.”

Threat lessened but danger lurks. Pinatubo has gone back asleep since then. In 1995, a
56-kilometer U-shaped mega dike costing P2.7 billion was built as a catch basin for the

10
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

Pasig-Potrero River, which has become the main avenue for the lahars. The mega dike,
however, claimed more victims when a section of collapsed, drowning three towns and
resulting in a loss of P38.9 million for the government. The last bad lahar flow was in 1998
but overall, residual threats from the last eruption are low. But neither Pinatubo nor her
immediate environs have gone back to their state pre-eruption.

“The landscape that we Kapampangans were familiar with for the last 300 years of our
existence was disturbed and changed forever. Only to realize that this has been a cycle
throughout the eons and years of history and prehistory,” explained Holy Angel
University’s Tantingco.

A truck hauls so-called Pinatubo sand from the riverbed of the Sto. Tomas River in
Bataan. Pinatubo sand is very popular in the construction industry because of its fine
quality. Photo by Terence Gonzalves

Studies undertaken immediately prior to the eruption showed that Pinatubo, in previous
eruptions, dumped enough pyroclastic material to completely change the face of the
land. Remnants of prehistoric eruptions are evident in what is known as Porac sand - fine
sand popular in the construction industry and found abundantly and quarried openly
along Pampanga’s riverbeds. Quarry operations contribute as much as P40 million daily
to the province’s earnings and employing thousands of locals. The rich supply of sand
from Pinatubo’s slopes could last at least another 30 years, said Art Punsalan, chief of
Pampanga’s environment office. He acknowledged that the riverbeds are not as silted
as before, and they need heavy rains to wash down these deposits downstream. This is
not the case outside Pampanga, however.

“In Zambales, you still have a lot of rivers in the upper portion filled up with ash or lahar,”
Solidum noted. “So there is still potential for lahar occurrences if in case there is extreme
rainfall in the Pinatubo area.” “The threat has been lessened, but it’s still there.”

11
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

***

From the story, identify the exposed elements affected by the lahar hazard, and why
were these elements vulnerable? Write your answers in a sheet of paper. (Sample
answer: people physically vulnerable to getting buried or trapped in structures
particularly when lahar flow occurs suddenly and at night)

___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________

In this module, we have learned the following:

1. In simple terms, a hazard is a dangerous situation or event that carries a threat to

humans. A disaster is an event that actually harms humans and disrupts the
operations of society. Hazards will be considered disasters once they affect
humans, but if they occur in an unpopulated area, they will remain hazards.
2.
3. Elements exposed to different hazard refers to the element at risk from a natural
or manmade hazard event. These include human beings, dwellings or households
and communities, building structures, public facilities and infrastructure assets,
public transport system, agricultural commodities and environmental assets.

12
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

What I Can Do

Activity 2

In this activity, you will still need the story that we have in the first activity and a sheet of
paper or a short bond paper to answer the following instruction.

From the story, identify the exposed elements affected by the Mt. Pinatubo’s eruption,
and why were these elements vulnerable?

____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________

13
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

Here is picture of typical raised house found in the Pampanga area affected by
lahar. The frame of the house including the foundation is made from reinforced
concrete, with hollow-blow in-fill walls. The roof system consists of a coco- lumber roof
frame and galvanized iron roofing material. The partitions are constructed from wooden
materials. The house was designed and constructed by a foreman with no formal
engineering or architectural training. There are 7 persons living inside the house which
include the owner of the house who is male and 34 years old. The wife of the owner of
the house who is 32 years old. Three children aged 5-years, 3-years, and a 6-month old
infant. A 72-year old female. A 40 year old male who is wheelchair bound. Most of the
furnishing of the house is either wooden or plastic in construction.

Copy the table on a sheet of paper and fill out the necessary information on how
founding the house on stilts affects the vulnerability of the house, its occupants and
contents to the given hazards.

Note: Stilt houses are houses raised on stilts over the surface of the soil or a body
of water. Stilt houses are built primarily as a protection against flooding; they also keep
out vermin. The shady space under the house can be used for work or storage. Stilts
means one of a set of long pieces of wood or metal used to support a building so that
it is above the ground or above water.

14
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

Example:

EXPOSED ELEMENT
HAZARD
HOUSE CONTENTS OCCUPANTS
Putting the Putting the house on stilts will
house on stilts make it more difficult to evacuate
will make it Because of stronger during a strong earthquake. This is
shake more shaking there is a particularly true for the children,
during an greater chance that the PWD, and the elderly
Earthquake/Strong earthquake the contents of the occupant off the house.
Ground Shaking resulting in house will be thrown
larger around inside the Because of the stronger shaking,
earthquake house and get there is greater chance that the
forces acting destroyed. contents of the house will be
on the thrown around and will injure the
house.(a) occupants of the house.

EXPOSED ELEMENT
HAZARD
HOUSE CONTENTS OCCUPANTS
Fire
Flood
Typhoon

Lesson Hazards, exposure, and

2 vulnerabilities and
relationship to disaster risk

What is Natural Hazard Risk?

The risk from a natural hazard is determined by the combined understanding of three
components:

 hazard: how big and how often?

 exposure: what elements are at risk (people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture etc.)?
 vulnerability: how does each exposed element respond to the level of hazard?

15
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

What’s in?

Risk (or more specifically, disaster risk) is the potential disaster losses (in terms of lives,
health status, livelihoods, assets and services) which could occur to a particular
community or a society over some specified future time period.
(Reference UNISDR Terminology)
It considers the probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths,
injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environmentally damaged)
resulting from interactions between natural or human induced hazards and vulnerable
conditions.
Risk can be calculated using the following equation:
Risk = Probability of Hazard x Degree of Vulnerability.
There are different ways of dealing with risk, such as:

Risk Acceptance: an informed decision to accept the possible consequences and

likelihood of a particular risk.

Risk Avoidance: an informed decision to avoid involvement in activities leading to risk

realization.

Risk Reduction refers to the application of appropriate techniques to reduce the

likelihood of risk occurrence and its consequences.

Risk Transfer involves shifting of the burden of risk to another party. One of the most
common forms of risk transfer is Insurance.

Estimating risk is an uncertain science as it involves forecasting events for which the time
and location might be largely unknown. This uncertainty is captured mathematically by
the concept of probability.

Reducing risk can only be achieved by decreasing the contribution from one or more
of these three components. Examples of risk reduction or managing the risk in these
components are:

 hazard: building a flood levee (a wall made of land or other materials that is built to stop
a river from overflowing) to alter the course of flood events

16
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

 exposure: land-use planning decisions to ensure that new development is not exposed
to hazard events, or influencing the type of development
 Vulnerability: retrofitting older buildings that were built to lower building standards or
before building codes were enforced.

What’s New

A hazard is a natural or man-made event that has the potential to cause impacts to
people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, environmental assets and communities.
Hazard modelling helps us understand a hazard's intensity (or magnitude), frequency
and source. It is typically underpinned by mathematical models that describe the
propagation of the hazard across the landscape.

Without knowledge of the past, we cannot predict what might happen in the
future. Historical catalogues are used to understand the frequency of hazard events.
They help us develop synthetic event sets that represent, for example, up to 10 000 years
of events. This allows us to understand what might be possible in the future and to
prepare for events that we have not seen in our lifetime. For rarer hazards such as
earthquakes, palaeoseismological investigations play a critical role in identifying and
characterizing individual pre-historic events that make up the neotectonic record.

A hazard assessment is concerned with estimating how often events of various sizes or
larger occur. It can address questions such as:

 What is the probability of a given flood height, wind speed, or level of earthquake
ground shaking occurring at a given location?
 What is the flood height, wind speed, or level of earthquake ground shaking for a given
return period or annual exceedance probability?
 How does the hazard vary spatially? That is, which area is more likely to experience
floods, severe wind or earthquakes?


An impact assessment might be conducted where the impact from a single hazard
scenario is assessed. The scenario may be selected based on its probability of a local
hazard severity occurring, or it may be based on an historical event, or selected to be
a certain magnitude (e.g., Category 5 typhoon, or magnitude 8 earthquake). Impact
assessments can also be used to test mitigation strategies. Questions that could be
addressed include:

17
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

 What is the building damage for a magnitude 8 earthquake occurring near Baguio?
 What would the building damage be if an event similar to Typhoon Yolanda was to
occur again?

Exposure refers to the elements at risk from a natural or man-made hazard event. This
could include: individuals; dwellings or households and communities; buildings and
structures; public facilities and infrastructure assets; agricultural commodities;
environmental assets; and business activity. Exposure information is about the location
and characteristics, or attributes, of each of the elements and is therefore about what
is at risk. This information feeds into a natural hazard risk analysis to identify what
elements at risk are in the location, and enough information about each of the elements
to help understand how they are likely to behave when subjected to natural and
artificial hazards.

Understanding what is exposed to a hazard event through readily available,

comprehensive and consistent national exposure information allows emergency
management and planning agencies to make informed, evidence-based decisions to
prepare, respond and recover from any events.

Vulnerability to natural hazards is an essential factor in understanding the true extent of

risk. Although there is no single definition for vulnerability, it generally refers to the impact
a hazard has on people, infrastructure and the economy. This is, it asks how large an
effect a hazard of a certain severity has on a particular element at risk. Vulnerability can
be divided into four main areas: physical, social, economic and system-depending on
the class of elements at risk being considered.

A risk assessment considers the full suite of hazard scenarios (that is, the full synthetic
event set) to understand the risk (probability of magnitude of loss) to the community,
infrastructure and agriculture. It can address questions such as:

 What is the annual expected building loss from earthquake events for a given location?
How does the loss estimate change with mitigation strategies enforced?
 Which areas will experience higher building loss from earthquakes?
 Which communities are more vulnerable to earthquake risk?

Risk models that have a physical basis inherently allow improved forecasting of events
and their impacts. This is particularly relevant for events in which the total risk might be
affected by changes in the natural environment, such as through climate change, or

18
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

by changes to the built environment as a result of new building codes and/or land-use
planning decisions, or by changes to the social environment such as through increased
public awareness.

Risk models can be used to perform cost-benefit analysis for various forms of mitigation
involving short-term solutions, such as early warning and response, along with long-term
resolution, such as land-use planning, improvements to building codes and
infrastructure standards and retrofit of older buildings. Although some residual risk is
inevitable, it can be moderated through insurance when it is available. Risk models can
also be used to develop disaster scenarios for emergency response and recovery, to
improve community awareness and to evaluate risk acceptance thresholds for a wider
range of stakeholders.

The effective development of risk models requires comprehensive data which

embraces hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Model development also needs to be
carried out by experts from a range of physical sciences including the earth sciences,
meteorology and hydrology as well as from engineering in areas such as structural
engineering, the environment, software and computational methods. It also requires
experts from the social sciences, including sociology, economics and emergency
management.

Most models capture risk in a rather limited context and are usually confined to the
direct damage or cost of a future disaster. Research is needed to extend these
estimates to include indirect effects such as loss of income and quality of life as well as
other social, political, and economic factors which invariably play a role in decisions
about risk. Advances in risk modelling also can be used to develop scenarios for natural
disaster response and urban planning, to educate the community and to evaluate risk
acceptance thresholds for a wide range of stakeholders.

For future models to be effective, broader input and more comprehensive data will be
required from a range of stakeholders and end users, such as governments, emergency
managers, planners, insurance companies, utility managers and operators. Models and
databases also need to be tested and validated using a variety of sources, including
data collected from past disasters. Tools will need to be developed to translate the
complex analysis into user friendly information to support decision-making on risk
treatment options.

19
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

Activity 1
Analyze the picture below. Identify the ways on how we reduce the risk of the typhoon
on these components:

Hazard: (Flood)
Exposure:

Vulnerability:

(Insert picture of an incoming typhoon formed at the Pacific ocean to hit a certain
place in the Philippines)

What is It

This shows the relationship of hazard, exposure and vulnerability to disaster risk.

20
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

What’s More

Activity 2

Analyze the picture below. You will need a sheet of paper to answer the activity.
Identify the ways on how we reduce the risk of an earthquake on these components:

Hazard: (Ground shaking)

Exposure:

Vulnerability:

(Insert picture of an area hit by an earthquake)

What I Have Learned

In this module, we have learned the

relationship of hazards, exposure and
vulnerability to disaster risk.

21
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

What I Can Do

In a sheet of paper, write at least two ways of reducing the risk made by a disaster like
explosion of Mayon volcano.

Assessment

Identify the following statements as True or False. Write your answer on the space
provided before the number.

_____1. When a hazard occur in populate areas, it become a disaster.

_____2. Hazards that become active harm humanity and destroy properties as well.

_____3. Volcanic eruption is a disaster as it can destroy human and animal’s population.
_____4. Oil leaks are disasters as they affect the health of marine life in the ocean and

threaten important food sources.

_____5. An underwater volcano remains a hazard as long as it doesn’t affect nearby
population by destroying food sources and property on a large scale.
_____6. Typhoon Yolanda hitting areas of Tacloban is a disaster.
_____7. Human beings, dwellings or households and communities, building structures,
public facilities and infrastructure assets, public transport system, agricultural
commodities and environmental assets are elements exposed to different
hazard.
_____8. Applying appropriate techniques to reduce the likelihood of risk occurrence
and its consequences is called risk reduction.
_____9. Disaster risk is the potential disaster losses (in terms of lives, health status,
livelihoods, assets and services) which could occur to a particular community or
a society over some specified future time period.
_____10. The impact a hazard has on people, infrastructure and the economy is termed
vulnerability.

22
SHS 11 COLEGIO DE LA PURISIMA CONCEPCION

Additional Activities

Let’s find out if you really understood the lesson about hazards, exposure,
vulnerability and their relationship to disaster risk. This is an activity that would check your
understanding about the lessons discussed. Enumerate ways on how to reduce the
risk given by the eruption of an underwater volcano which results to big waves or
tsunami.

PRAYER

“In the name of the Father and of the Son, and the Holy Spirit. Amen.”
“Lord, may everything I did in my lesson today be blessed with your inspiration and continue with Your saving
help. Let everything I learned find its origin in Your wisdom and through You may I find its purpose in my life, in my
home, friends, and my neighbor today and in the future.”
“I ask this through Jesus Christ our Lord, who lives and reigns with You in the unity of the Holy Spirit, one God
forever and ever.”
“Immaculate Concepcion Patroness of this College, St. Pedro Calungsod, St. Lorenzo Ruiz, St. Michael the
Archangel, and St. Roque, Pray for us. Amen.”

References
Teaching Guide for Senior High School Disaster Readiness and Risk Reduction by the Commission on Higher Education in
collaboration with the Philippine Normal University

Risk and Impact www.ga.gov.au

Vulnerability and Risk www.odpm.gov.tt

Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience www.memp.colacotway.vic.gov.au

Disaster risk -Vulnerability www.preventionweb.net

Introduction to exposure, vulnerability and risk assessment www.charim.net

Characteristics of Assets-elements at risk www.charim.net

What is the difference between a hazard and a risk www.worksmart.org.uk

Exposure and vulnerability www.slideshare.net

The difference between hazards and disasters www.knowledgenuts.com

Difference between hazard and disaster www.differencebetween.net

28 years after Pinatubo: Eruption, lahar and resilience www.philstar.com

https://dictionary.cambridge.org https://dictionary.reverso.net

23