EMERGING

TECHNOLOGY
Civic Space Future Trend Report
BY POONAM JOSHI

Resource paper for the

International Center for Not-for-Profit Law
Civic Space 2040 Initiative
Published March 2020
FUTURE TREND:
EMERGING TECHNOLOGY
Over the next two decades, environmental, technological, and demographic trends will dramat-
ically change how we live our lives. A vibrant civic space is essential to ensure everyone can fully
participate in shaping this future. ICNL launched “Civic Space 2040” — a futurist initiative to
craft a positive vision for civic space and map strategies to make it a reality. The initiative explores
trends that will radically transform the future and discusses ways in which these trends will af-
fect civic space. This briefing is one in a series commissioned by ICNL to help inform civic space
advocates about the opportunities and challenges ahead.

The potential impacts of emerging digital technology1 on civil society are widely dis-
cussed, but much more could be done to prepare civil society for a digital world. Wheth-
er digital technology will have a positive or negative impact on civic space and philan-
thropy will depend on a range of factors:
• The feasibility of reforming the practices and business models of the technology
companies;

• The governance of the internet and the degree to which states instrumentalize
technology for their own geopolitical and domestic goals;

• Whether the efforts of technologists to re-invent and decentralize the infra-

structure of the internet gains traction; and

• The capacity of civil society — beyond a small group of digital rights experts —
to integrate a focus on digital technology into every aspect of their work.

This briefing explores the trends in emerging digital technology most likely to shape
civic space, and opportunities for civil society advocates to mitigate and capitalize on
the changes ahead.

POLICY AND GOVERNANCE OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY

AND THE INTERNET
Digital technology has delivered a huge range of benefits and challenges to businesses,
citizens, and wider society. The internet has fundamentally changed how people access
and receive information. It has allowed civic actors to flourish and compete in the so-
called ‘marketplace of ideas,’ but it has also created the conditions for malign actors to
interfere in elections, fuel polarization and spread hatred.

1 For the purposes of this paper, emerging digital technology refers to hardware and software built using information and
communication technology and/or the internet, such as artificial intelligence applications, facial recognition tools, online social
networks etc.

Civic Space 2040 1

BUSINESS MODELS
The threats digital technology poses to civic space and democracy are rooted in the
business model of the most successful technology companies and the governance of
the internet eco-system to date.

The digital economy is predicated on the accumulation, analysis, and sale of vast
amounts of data by a handful of largely US-based platforms: Facebook, Amazon, Al-
phabet (the parent company of Google), and Apple. This data — based on the brows-
ing habits, social media profiles, online purchases, and Google searches of users — can
be used to send targeted messages to influence the behavior of increasingly specific
groups of social media users for private profit, public good, or malign purposes.

The next generation of digital technologies will enable companies to extract data not
just from online spaces, but from the built environment. The Internet of Things2 will
enable companies to gather personal data from cameras, smartwatches, fitness track-
ers, toys, and automated travel. Facial recognition technologies and sensors in Smart
Cities3 will also allow the harvesting of data from users in public spaces.

While this data could be used to improve fitness, health care, transport, or energy ef-
ficiency, without regulation or oversight, it could equally aid manipulation or surveil-
lance by malign states, companies, or other non-state actors on an unprecedented scale.

Regulating the internet

Whether current or emerging technologies will be harnessed for the public good or in
ways that threaten civic space will be determined by who governs the internet. Built
and operated by the private sector, the technical governance of the internet from in-
ception has been global and consensus-based, rather than state-based or backed by law.

In the absence of an overarching legal or regulatory framework, governance of the in-

ternet has largely remained in the hands of the US tech platforms. Resistant to regula-
tion, the platforms have largely failed to take responsibility for the social and political
impact of their systems and operations, or offered anything beyond ameliorative mea-
sures.4

2 In the broadest sense, the term Internet of Things (IoT) encompasses everything connected to the internet, but it is in-
creasingly being used to define devices that “talk” to each other, from simple sensors to smartphones and wearables. Through
combining these connected devices it is possible to gather information, analyze it and create an action that improves the
experience for the user.
3 A Smart city is an urban area that uses different types of electronic IoT sensors to collect data and then use insights gained
from that data to manage assets, resources and services efficiently. This includes data collected from citizens, devices, and
assets that is processed and analyzed to monitor and manage traffic and transportation systems, power plants, utilities, water
supply networks, waste management, crime detection, information systems, schools, libraries, hospitals, and other commu-
nity services.
4 Ameliorative actions taken by the tech platforms are documented in Governance Innovation for a Connected World, edited
by Eileen Donohoe and Fen Osler Hampson, Centre for International Governance Innovation, 2018.

Future Trends: Emerging Technology 2

Set to dominate the artificial intelligence (AI)5 sector, the tech
giants will be responsible for the evolution of the technologies
likely to transform civic space unless states take steps to reg-
ulate the sector or reform the underlying business model in
partnership with civil society.

‘‘
However, effective regulation of the internet, AI, and future
digital technology will only be possible with the cooperation
of multiple government agencies and the private sector com-
panies, a challenging outcome to achieve given the divergent
values and agendas of Western democracies and authoritarian
states on this issue.

The battle for who governs the internet reflects a broader geo- Whether
political struggle for values and influence between authoritari-
an states and Western democracies. China, Russia, and Iran, in technology will
particular, have raised concerns about the decentralized gover-
nance of the internet, partly as a reaction to the internet being
be harnessed
driven by the US and other Western democracies. A decentral- for the public
ized internet runs counter to the desire of these states to man-
age information and communications centrally. good or in
One country where the US tech platforms have very little pow- ways that
er and influence is in China, which has protected its domestic
internet market from foreign competitors and built its own set threaten civic
space will be
of social networks, including the Twitter—like Sina Weibo and
WeChat/Weixin, which is similar to WhatsApp. Censorship is
baked into these platforms, as platform operators must mon-
itor online content and remove offending posts or risk losing
their operating licenses.

Internationally, China is aggressively advocating for cyber sov-

‘‘
determined by
who governs
the internet.
ereignty6 and exporting its model of extensive censorship and
automated surveillance systems to a significant cohort of coun-
tries. Freedom on the Net reported that last year China hosted
media officials from 36 countries for seminars on its system of

5 Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to a constellation of technologies, including machine

learning, perception, reasoning, and natural language processing. See: The Social and Eco-
nomic Implications of Artificial Intelligence: Technologies in the Near-Term, AI Now, July 7,
2016.
6 Cyber sovereignty is the assertion of the right of each state to control the internet within
its borders. States justify this concept by arguing they should be allowed to assert control
over information and communication technology and enhance their capacity for surveil-
lance to guarantee a peaceful, safe, relevant or appropriate information space.

Civic Space 2040 3

censorship and surveillance, including several with poor track
records on civic freedoms, such as Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia,
and the Philippines.

Western democracies — although ostensibly committed to civ-

ic freedoms — have also struggled to develop coherent policy
positions on governance and regulation. Concerns about pri-
vacy, election interference, and the dissemination of violent, Advocating for New
extreme, and harmful content online have led several states, Legal protections
including the UK, France, and Germany, to propose laws that
permit censorship and content removal in ways that inadver- Improving Data Protection

tently limit freedom of expression. For example, in April 2019, Comprehensive data protection laws,
the British government proposed sweeping new powers to re- which should apply to both the gov-
ernment and private sector, could
move “harmful” content from the internet, which could easily address many of the human rights
be used as a pretext to censor speech. risks posed by AI. One model is the
European Union’s General Data Pro-
At the same time, the US, Israel, and several European coun- tection Regulation (GDPR), one of the
tries have a record of exporting surveillance technologies to strongest and most comprehensive
attempts to regulate the collection
governments with poor human rights records, leaving them and use of personal data by both gov-
in a weak position to challenge China’s actions. In June 2018, ernments and the private sector. The
a number of European Union member states — including the GDPR limits data processing to per-
missible purposes, with protections
UK, Poland, Sweden and Ireland — attempted to block curbs on for sensitive data. It also requires
the export of surveillance equipment to abusive regimes. opt-in consent, which limits the use of
personal data for training AI systems.
In contrast, the European Union has been at the vanguard of Rights provided for by the GDPR, and
safeguarding privacy through the introduction of data protec- similar laws, offer a framework to pre-
vent against unaccountable uses of
tion laws in 2018, challenging the monopoly of US tech giants.7 AI that impact individual rights while
The EU is also seeking to set global standards on the ethical and ensuring a level of control of personal
legal framework of AI, particularly where it is adopted by pub- data and accountability for the use of
AI and machine learning systems.8
lic authorities and used in healthcare, policing, and transport.
Combating Disinformation
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTION Digital rights experts are calling for
laws that mandate that all automated
Regulatory Innovation accounts are clearly labeled to show
the source of an ad, the funding be-
hind it, and the scope of its reach. This
Civil society has a critical role to play in informing government could disrupt targeted digital political
efforts to articulate law and policy in the field of AI that speaks advertising and the amplification of
bot networks.9
7 The European Union has launched several actions, including challenging Google’s alleged
monopoly and demanding that Apple pay the Irish government 13 billion euros in back tax-
es.
8 See: Human Rights in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Access Now, November 2018, p
30-31. GDPR was enacted in 2016 by the European Union, and went into effect May 25,
2018, across the EU’s 28 Member States.
9 See: https://luminategroup.com/storage/275/Digital-Democracy-Charter.pdf

Future Trends: Emerging Technology 4

to both public and private sector applications. However, the internet policy field is
relatively young, and much more needs to be done to build the capacity of a wider
range of civil society actors to safeguard civic freedoms within digital environments
through policy and advocacy.

Civil society groups would benefit from training and tools to enable them to defend
civic space at the national level vis-à-vis governmental tech initiatives, such as na-
tional AI strategies or laws on surveillance, as well as in the dozen multi-stakeholder
fora where global policy is discussed.10 A recent collaboration between ICNL and Stan-
ford’s Global Digital Policy Incubator to conduct the first Tech Camp for Civic Space
Defenders serves as an example. Particular support is required to enable civil society
representation from repressive governments, especially China and Russia, in stake-
holder forums.

Issues of privacy, data protection, and combating disinformation could be tackled by

civil society through demands for new legal frameworks.

Civil Society Involvement in the Design Of Technology

Human rights experts have also called for much greater civic engagement in the de-
sign of AI to ensure human rights safeguards are built-in from inception to imple-
mentation.
Human Rights in AI Design
The UN Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to
freedom of opinion and expression, David Kaye, and Access Now recommend
that civil society be consulted during human rights impact assessments to be
conducted throughout the AI lifecycle, from conception to implementation.11
Those consulted should include human rights defenders and representatives
of marginalized or underrepresented end users. The results of human rights
impact assessments and public consultations should be made public.

Alternative Technological and Business Models

Finally, there is a growing movement of digital rights activists who argue that the
only way to address the harmful impacts of digital technology and harness its power
for the public good, is to transfer power over data from centralized platforms back to
their users. Although there is a growing focus on the concept of technology serving
public interests, the approaches being suggested are diverse.

10 Policy is debated in multilateral bodies like the International Telecommunication Union, engineering groups like the In-
ternet Engineering Task Force, the human rights system of the UN, normative bodies like the Internet Governance Forum
or the OECD, domain name organizations like Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) or regional
registries.
11 See: https://undocs.org/A/73/348 29 August 2018, pp 20-21 and Human Rights in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Ac-
cess Now, November 2018, p 32.

Civic Space 2040 5

 Data, digital infrastructure, and services for the public good
Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the World Wide Web, is experimenting with a
new architecture called Solid, in which user data remains under a user’s control
and is shared with applications when they need it, rather than being owned by
those platforms.
The British think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), is one of
many think tanks calling for reforms that organize data and digital infrastruc-
ture as a public good. IPPR recommends moving from conditions of “monop-
olistic data enclosure” to a “digital commonwealth,” where the vast potential
of socially generated data helps develop the wealth, creativity, and capacity of
all society. IPPR proposes several measures, including: (1) Strengthening com-
petition law; (2) Regulating platform giants as public utilities; and (3) Creating
a digital national public service that drives the curation and productive use of
public data and oversees the creation of a national data portal.
In The Case for Digital Public Infrastructure, media scholar and digital rights
activist Ethan Zuckerman makes a case for tackling the issues created by the
current platforms and their business model, through technological innovation
rather than regulation. He calls upon governments and philanthropies to fund
rigorous research about the effects of social media on individual health and on
our broader civic health, which can then be used to foster direct experimenta-
tion or set policy. For example, if research finds that radicalization stems from
interactions in video comments, experimentation in moderating conversations
around videos might be more effective than regulation.

THREATS TO CIVIC SPACE ONLINE

Pressure on free expression, assembly, and association
This section examines the impact of digital technology on civic space in more depth, as
well as emerging responses from civil society and technologists.

The 2018 report, Malicious Use of AI, predicts that AI will figure prominently in the
security landscape of the future and that more can and should be done as a matter of
urgency to prevent the use of AI by malign actors. Some commentators12 argue that pol-
icymakers have yet to seriously grapple with AI’s repressive implications, particularly
with expression and assembly in the context of rising authoritarianism and democratic
backsliding.

12 Steven Feldstein reports that from 1989 onwards, popular revolts and electoral defeats have become the most common
causes of departure for dictators, compared to coups in the period 1946-1988. He argues that as the gravest threats to au-
thoritarian survival are from discontented publics on the streets or at the ballot box, autocrats are embracing digital tactics
for monitoring, surveilling and harassing civil society movements, and for distorting elections as strategies that are both cost
effective and carry less political risk. He also notes that democratic governments may have an incentive to use AI to monitor
the activities of political opponents and civil society and take pre-emptive action against potential challenges to their author-
ity. Finally, governments that depend on Chinese technology to control their populations will feel increasing pressure to align
their policies with China’s strategic interests. See: Feldstein, Steven. The Road to Digital Unfreedom: How Artificial Repression
is Reshaping Repression, Journal of Democracy, January 2019.

Future Trends: Emerging Technology 6

Increasing Censorship
Demands by states to companies to address terrorist content,
hate speech, and fake news are increasing, but there are no clear
definitions for what the issues encompass or standards on how
to address them. Filtering out hate speech could create a mas-
sive backlash in authoritarian contexts where governments di-

‘‘
rect or are complicit in hate speech towards certain groups.

Content moderation might also be used to censor marginalized

groups and appease illiberal or authoritarian governments.
Content intended to be controversial, hyperbolic, satirical, or
ironic may also be wrongly censored by human or automated
monitors seeking to target offensive content. Facial
Unprecedented State Surveillance recognition
Machine learning systems can already infer or predict high- technology in
ly sensitive information from non-sensitive data. Looking
ahead, authorities could aggregate the data we produce online, public spaces
through our phones and other devices, and facial recognition
technology in public spaces to monitor, identify, or locate cer-
could have a
tain individuals or groups. This could be used for positive goals chilling effect
— improving public transportation — but also for targeted and
mass surveillance. According to Access Now, 50% of adults in on assembly, as
the US are already in law enforcement facial recognition data- many people
bases, and China could be the first country to develop a fully
centralized facial recognition system.13

AI-enabled restrictions protest

AI-enabled censorship could be used to remove content that
facilitates the organization of in-person gatherings and col-
laboration. Through data from satellite imagery, including heat
‘‘
rely on the
anonymity
provided by
mass protests.
maps,14 facial recognition powered cameras, and cell phone lo-
cation, AI could also be used to provide detailed information to
predict and disrupt gatherings. Facial recognition technology
in public spaces could also have a chilling effect on assembly, as
many people rely on the anonymity provided by mass protests
to gather in public and express their views.

13 See: Human Rights in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Access Now, November 2018, p
21
14 Heat mapping involves the detection and strength of signals sent out from mobile devic-
es to create a “heat map” that indicates where protesters are gathering.

Civic Space 2040 7

The problem of predictive policing and sentencing and racial bias in the criminal jus-
tice system has already been well documented. This issue is likely to be replicated for
minority and marginalized groups engaging in dissent and protest. The surveillance of
the Black Lives Matter movement and the recent use of facial recognition technology
against protesters in India challenging anti-Muslim legislation illustrates that inter-
section.

Rise of Misinformation
We are now in an era of information warfare where repressive states are realizing that
manipulation via digital platforms could be a much more powerful tool than suppres-
sion or surveillance to achieve their goals. A growing number of states are advanc-
ing their goals by using various tools to spread misinformation, including AI-powered
bots,15 deepfakes,16 and manipulating social media algorithms to interfere in elections17
and erode public trust in fact-based evidence.

If platforms do not successfully curb these methods of spreading misinformation, pub-

lic trust in the legitimacy of elections, as well as traditional media and civil society, may
decline further. The devaluation of notions of truth and fact poses significant challeng-
es for civil society, as their ability to advocate for social change relies on the legitimacy
of their evidence. Looking ahead, there are concerns that deepfakes could be used to
incite discrimination, violence, and conflict, or discredit activists and leaders — partic-
ularly women — through the creation of compromising images.

Platforms curating access to Information18

Tech platforms will continue to play the role of gatekeepers to information on civil so-
ciety through curation, the ranking of information based on user interest and data sets,
and content moderation. There has been little examination of how curation impacts
freedom of association, including how systems determine which civil society groups
and issues are given prominence online. The growing use of non-traditional interfaces,
such as Amazon’s digital assistant Alexa, could heighten this effect as the interfaces
present users with information about issues and organizations based on existing pref-
erences. As a result, civil society organizations may find it harder to engage with poten-
tial supporters.

15 A chatbot, or chat bot, is a machine that has a conversation with humans via text or audio. An AI powered chatbot is a
smarter version, which uses natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning (ML) to better understand the intent of
the human and provide more natural, near human-level communication.
16 Deepfakes are images or videos that are altered using neural networks and machine learning, making them both realistic
and difficult to detect.
17 Strategies include using bot-driven, large-scale information-generation attacks to swamp information channels with false
or merely distracting information, making it more difficult to acquire real information.
18 CAF’s 2018 report, Machine made goods: Charities, Philanthropy & Artificial Intelligence provides a comprehensive guide
to the practical and ethical implications of technology for philanthropy.

Future Trends: Emerging Technology 8

OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTION

Combating Surveillance
Until recently, activity on the issue of surveillance was limited
to the investigation and exposure of the European, American,
and Israeli tech companies that supplied spyware to repressive
regimes.

Holding companies to account had proved difficult until Oc-

tober last year, when WhatsApp launched an unprecedented
lawsuit against Israeli cyberweapons firm, the NSO group, ac-
Community-level
cusing it of being behind secret attacks on more than 100 hu- Strategies for
man rights activists, lawyers, journalists, and academics in a Countering Surveillance
two-week period last year. The lawsuit — mounted with the
support of Citizen Lab — marks a major positive step forward
MediaJustice in Oakland expos-
for human rights protections online and could set a precedent. es the application of surveillance
against people of color and the Black
Looking ahead, the issue of surveillance and privacy in public
Lives Matter movement. Its national
and private spaces requires much greater attention from civil campaign, Defend Our Movements,
society. Examples of emerging thinking on this issue include seeks to protect activists working
the Digital Freedom Fund’s program on Future Proofing Digi- on racial and economic justice in a
tal Rights, which explores how to protect data collected by chil- digital age. Support offered includes
a web-based clearinghouse offering
dren’s toys and devices and how to prevent states from intro- activists the most up-to-date and
ducing hacking powers over connected household devices. useful information about protecting
devices and data.
With regards to practical security, international organizations
including Frontline Defenders and The Engine Room, offer Crypto-Harlem provides free public
workshops on privacy, anti-surveil-
digital security training to human rights organizations, but
lance, and digital security for people
massive gaps remain in providing protection against digital in New York City.
surveillance for communities or movements. Pioneering work
in the US with racial justice activists illustrates what is possible.

Restoring Trust in Media and Facts

The role of digital technology in eroding trust in media and de-
mocracy has received considerable attention from states, me-
dia organizations, and civil society, although the problem con-
tinues to outstrip the scale of the response.

There has been investment in media literacy initiatives, in par-

ticular fact-checking websites and tools such as PolitiFact.com,
FullFact.org, and BBC Reality check. While useful, it is ques-
tionable how effective these initiatives are, as they operate at
the level of evidence rather than feelings or mood, which is the
forte of propaganda.

Civic Space 2040 9

Greater transparency from media outlets on how they collect,
report and disseminate news, disclosure of who pays for ad-
vertising, regulating political advertising, and investment in
independent and investigative media could be more effective
ways to build or re-build trust in media and democracy.
Creating a Public Discourse around the Impacts
of technology
Civil liberties and digital rights groups have traditionally Using AI to Provide
struggled to secure public support regarding the issues of data Real-time Assistance to
and privacy due to disinterest or the complexity of the issues Protesters
involved. However, public concerns over election interference
and, more recently the use of facial recognition technologies
provide an unprecedented opportunity to engage the public on OVD-Info is an independent Russian
the abuse of AI. human rights project which collects
information about arrests at public
The 2019 Netflix documentary, The Great Hack, which focuses protests and other forms of political
on manipulation of voters’ data and interference in the 2016 repression. In 2017 OVD-Info de-
US Presidential elections and the success of the book, The Age veloped a special Telegram bot that
of Surveillance Capitalism19 by US academic Shoshana Zuboff allows users to voluntarily report
their arrests and any other interac-
demonstrates it is possible to engage public interest on com-
tion with law enforcement and to re-
plex issues such as AI, surveillance and the digital economy. ceive immediate advice on their legal
rights. Over 8,000 people registered
to receive information through the
POSITIVE TRENDS AND INITIATIVES bot. When Russians took to the
Over the next two decades, all civic actors will need to learn streets to protest proposed pension
reforms on September 9, 2018, an
how to operate in a digital world. In her 2020 forecast on digital
estimated 1,200 people were ar-
civil society, Lucy Bernholz notes that “Effective organizations rested in 38 cities, of which 184 re-
will be those that manage and govern all of their resources— ported their arrests to OVD-Info.
time, money, staff, data, and digital systems—toward mission.”
Digital technology offers civic actors the power to transform
their impact, increase transparency and trust, improve com-
munications, and find new sources of funding.

As the community of engineers and entrepreneurs thinking

about digital tools that meet civic needs remains relatively
small, we don’t yet have a full sense of what AI and digital tech-
nology could do to improve civic space. However, new ideas and
tools are emerging that could improve the impact and reach of
civil society and benefit society more broadly.

19 Zuboff, Shoshana. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at
the New Frontier of Power. New York: Public Affairs, 2019

Future Trends: Emerging Technology 10

Innovation to advance mission and goals
AI could be utilized by charities and civil society organizations
to help them further their mission and goals. Work underway
falls largely into three categories:

1. Improving accessibility to info and services for

‘‘
users facing challenges to access due to disabili-
ty, visual impairment or language – e.g., Tailored
Chatbots that provide advice or service;

2. Analysis of data at an unprecedented speed and

scale to advance breakthroughs in medical treat-
ment and research, and predict extreme weather
events to assist with climate adaptation, and Of the many
3. Using novel applications and machine learning to emerging
uphold civic freedoms and human rights – from
platforms to improve access to legal advice for
technologies
protesters, to investigative journalists using ma- examined
chine learning to mine huge volumes of financial
data to identify evidence of money laundering and while
corruption.
developing
To capitalize on these opportunities, civil society will need to
address issues of who owns the data they have access to, con- this paper,
blockchain
sent to use the data, and take steps to improve the quality and
quantity of data.

Decentralizing Digital Infrastructure

Of the many emerging technologies examined while devel-
oping this paper, blockchain20 was the most hyped and hotly
debated. The decentralized and immutable characteristics of
‘‘
was the most
hyped and
hotly debated.
blockchain mean it could be used to prevent fraud and corrup-
tion in a variety of settings, including cross-border financial
transactions, data sharing, and voting.

In relation to philanthropy, blockchain offers a radical degree

of transparency, allowing assets to be tracked through a chain
of transactions. Although the idea of using blockchain for

20 Blockchain is a distributed public ledger: a way of keeping a record of transactions and

ownership within a system without the need for a traditional trusted third party.

Civic Space 2040 11

cross-border giving is already being tested,21 there is little clarity about the regulation
of blockchain or cryptocurrency for this type of giving. There is also a significant ‘last
mile’ problem: cryptocurrency is not much use unless you can spend it on goods and
services or convert it to traditional currency.22

Registration Technology
CAF has highlighted several ways AI could be used to improve the registration, over-
sight, and compliance of nonprofits.23 These include: using AI to scan a large amount
of financial data to spot early compliance issues rather than using enforcement as a
tool; embedding laws and regulations in smart contracts governing how organizations
operate so that it would not be possible to break them, thus minimizing the need for
enforcement; and recording transactions on blockchain so that accurate, real-time in-
formation on spending would be available to everyone, and annual reporting would no
longer be necessary.

Supporting fluid associations

Democracy activist Pia Mancini from Democracy OS is experimenting with the concept
of open platforms that act as fiscal sponsors for those wishing to organize more fluidly
than is typically permitted by current laws governing association. The platforms would
operate on a model of trust between people and organizations and act as a transparency
and accountability mechanism.

Movement technology
Informal and movement-based groups need robust, diverse, value-driven software
that keeps them safe and can be used securely in dangerous places. Aspiration Tech is
the leader on producing tools that support movement building, including open-source
software that supports secure communications and collaboration.

A 2017 report for the Ford Foundation sets out a long term strategy for providing sup-
port to develop technology that helps movements. The report identifies needs, includ-
ing the development and dissemination of software that enables activists to browse
securely, divorce their identity and location when using devices, and decentralize how
data is held across different countries so access can’t be blocked.

21 Large INGOs and aid agencies like UNICEF are experimenting with using blockchain for their internal money flows. Mean-
while, start-ups like Disberse are trying to build platforms that can harness blockchain technology to make cross-border pay-
ments more efficient, transparent and cost-effective.
22 See: https://www.cafonline.org/about-us/caf-campaigns/campaigning-for-a-giving-world/future-good/blockchain
23 See: https://www.cafonline.org/about-us/publications/2016-publications/block-and-tackle-using-blockchain-technolo-
gy-to-create-and-regulate-civil-society-organisations

Future Trends: Emerging Technology 12

 ‘‘
CONCLUSION
On the cusp of a new industrial revolution, digital technology
has already transformed civic space and democracy in ways
that were unthinkable even a decade ago. As recently as 2011,
we viewed technology primarily as a force for good, as social Digital
networks and messaging apps enabled protests across the Mid-
dle East and North Africa. Less than a decade on, we now also technology
recognize the power of the same networks to spread disinfor-
mation and hatred. As innovation accelerates, technologists,
has already
states, and civil society are struggling to keep up with its socie- transformed
tal impacts.
civic space and
Civil society has a critical role to play in ensuring that digital
technology serves the public good; through reform, improved democracy in
ways that were
governance, and as equal partners in the design and implemen-
tation of emerging technology. Civil society also has the oppor-
tunity to embrace the potential of AI to improve impact and
ensure its infrastructure is fit for a digital age. In order to do
both, civil society will need tech literacy, especially at the lead-
ership level, supportive boards, willing funders, and the ability
to share the costs and risks of investing in AI with states and
‘‘
unthinkable
even a decade
ago.
the private sector.

Civic Space 2040 13

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