0 - Investment - Outlook - 2024 - (FINAL - EN) - 20231020 - 12 - SSV

Research Center – Shinhan Securities Vietnam
☎ (84-28) 6299-8029
 [email protected]
Global economic recovery remains slow and divergent due to Along with steady recovery of the economy, Vietnam stock
cyclical effects of monetary tightening policy to curb inflation, market is getting ready to accelerate in 2024. VNIndex is
escalating war and also extreme weather events. forecasted to increase by 15% - 25% in 2024 backed by
earning growth of listed companies that showed signs of
In Vietnam, thanks to well control of inflation, policy priorities
bottoming out in 2022Q4 and estimated to increase by
of growth are expected to promote the economic recovery at
4%/15% in 2023/2024, respectively. KRX system into
a faster rate, estimated by 5% in 2023 and increase to 6% in
operation, MSCI emerging market upgrade bring even
2024 driven by investment, consumption and export.
greater expectations.
From technical perspective, VNIndex is expected to In an economic expansion cycle, most of industries will
return “markup phase” with target of 1350 - 1450 points return positive growth. Of which, we focus on benefiting
(70% probability) and 1550 points (15% probability), in sectors from promoting investment and consumption (such
line with the recovery of global and Vietnam economy. as retails, industrial parks); manufacturing and export
In the negative scenario (15% probability), VNIndex will prosper again (fishery, textile, logistic, power); and
fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1250 points when policy especially, real estate sector starts a new cycle and
priorities of growth could not be effective. prospect of banking sector becomes clearer.
Key issues that need to pay attention in 2024: Divergent monetary policies put pressure
on exchange rates; bad debts swell and damage banking system; remained high inflation
requires central banks to maintain high interest rates longer; global economic recession;
escalating war; and surprises from the elections in US and some other countries.
Sources: Shinhan Securities Vietnam,
upside calculated based on closing
price on 19/10/2023
Ly Bui - Head of Research
☎ (84-28) 6299-8029
Macroeconomics outlook 2024 – Steady resilience
1. Global economy outlook
 Slow recovery and divergence
2. Vietnam economy outlook
 Sustained growth priorities
 Robust public investment driving growth
 New wave of FDI in technology sector
 Restoring demand, manufacture and export prosper
 Domestic consumption maintains growth momentum
 Inflation under control
 Harmony between interest rate and exchange rate
3. Macro risks
 Divergent monetary policy could create pressure on exchange rate
 Unsolved real estate problems, bad debts swell and damage the
banking system
 Recession risk, political risk and other surprises
Global economy outlook
01
Global economic recovery remains slow and divergent due
to cyclical effects of monetary tightening policy to curb
inflation, escalating war and also extreme weather events.
World Economic Growth (%YoY) Consumer Price Index (%YoY)
2022 2023F 2024F 12

8.0 9.8
7.2 10 8.5
8.7 7.8
6.3 8
6.3 5.8 6.9
5.3 5.0 5.9
5.0 5.0 4.7 5.8
6 7.3
4.1 4.0 4.2 4.7
3.5 3.3 4.0
2.9 3.0 4
3.0 2.6 2.6 4.6
2.12.1 2.2
1.5 1.5 2 3.1 3.0
1.2 1.4
1.4
0.7
0
2021 2022 2023F 2024F
World Advanced United Euro Area EM & China India Korea Indonesia Vietnam
output Economies States Developing World Advanced Economies EM and Developing Economies
economies
Source: IMF_WorldEconomic Outlook Oct 2023, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Sources: IMF_World Economic Outlook Oct 2023,Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Central Bank Policy rates* (%p.a)

10
0
08-06
08-07
08-08
08-09
08-20
08-22
08-23
08-19
08-21
08-11
08-10
08-12
08-13
08-14
08-15
08-16
08-17
08-18
-2
China India Japan Korea US Euro area
Source: BIS, Shinhan Securities Vietnam – *Monthly data, end of period

02 Vietnam economy outlook
In Vietnam, with policy priorities of growth thanks to well
control of inflation, we expect the economy will recover at
a faster rate to reach 5% in 2023 and increase to 6% in
2024.
Vietnam GDP Growth (%YoY)
8.0
7.5 7.4
7.0 6.7 6.9
6.4
6.0
5.5 5.6
5.0
2.9 2.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
(%YoY) (%YoY)
Agricultures, forestry and fisheries Industry and construction 10 Investment Final consumption Trade balance
10
Services Taxes 8
8
6
6
4 4
2 2
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
-2
Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Sources GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
4,000,000 40% 3,000,000 0%
2,000,000 -1%
3,000,000 30%
1,000,000
-2%
2,000,000 20% -
-3% -3%
(1,000,000)
1,000,000 10%
-4%
-4% -4% -4% -4%
(2,000,000)
0 0% -5%
(3,000,000) -5%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
State sector Non-State sector
FDI sector Total social investment capital/GDP Budget deficit State revenue
Public investment/GDP State expenditure Budget deficit/GDP
Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Real estate
40,000 Information and activities
35,000 communication 16%
1%
30,000
25,000
Accommodation
20,000 and food service
15,000 activities
3%
10,000
Transportation
5,000 and storage
2% Manufacturing
0
66%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Construction
Disbursed FDI (million USD) Registered FDI (million USD) 3%
Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam – Data as of August 20, 2023
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-21
May-18
May-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
May-23
Sep-23
Jan-21
Sep-21
Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Export (USD million) Import (USD million) Import-Export turnover/GDP

60
500,000 250%
55
50 400,000 200%
45
300,000 150%
40
200,000 100%
35
30 100,000 50%
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-21
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
Sep-21
0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
600,000 40% 8,000,000 25%
30% 7,000,000
500,000 20%
20% 6,000,000
400,000 15%
10% 5,000,000
300,000
4,000,000 10%
0%
200,000 3,000,000
-10% 5%
2,000,000
100,000 -20%
0%
1,000,000
0 -30%
0 -5%
1-2021
10-2019
1-2018
4-2018
7-2018
10-2018
1-2019
4-2019
7-2019
1-2020
1-2022
1-2023
4-2020
7-2020
10-2020
4-2022
7-2022
10-2022
4-2023
7-2023
4-2021
7-2021
10-2021
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F2024F
Total retail sales (Accumulated) Unit:Billion VND

Retail sales (M)Unit:Billion VND Retail sales growth (MoM)
Total retail sales (Accumulated YoY Growth)
Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: GSO, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam – Data as of August 20, 2023
1-2018
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
3-2018
Jan-18
5-2018
Apr-18
7-2018 Jul-18
9-2018 Oct-18
11-2018 Jan-19
1-2019 Apr-19
3-2019 Jul-19
5-2019
(%YoY)
Oct-19

7-2019 Jan-20
9-2019 Apr-20
11-2019 Jul-20
1-2020 Oct-20
3-2020 Jan-21
5-2020 Apr-21
Jul-21
Vietnam headline and core CPI (%YoY)
7-2020
9-2020 Oct-21
11-2020 Jan-22
1-2021 Apr-22
Jul-22
3-2021
Oct-22
5-2021
Jan-23
7-2021
Apr-23
9-2021
Jul-23
11-2021
Oct-23
1-2022
Core CPI
Jan-24
3-2022
Apr-24
Headline CPI
5-2022
Jul-24
7-2022
Oct-24
9-2022
11-2022
1-2023
3-2023
5-2023
7-2023
Sep-23
0%
10%
20%
30%
-10%
-30%
-20%
CPI-foods
CPI-foodstuff
CPI-Transport
Hoeadline CPI
CPI-housing and construction materials
Interest rate (%p.a) VND/USD exchange rate
10Y-government bond yield Central rate VCB rate OTC rate SBV rate
14% 26,000
12M_deposit rate (SCB, in VND)
Long-term lending rate (SCB, in VND, applicable to ordinary loans)
12%
25,000
10%
24,000
8%
23,000
6%
22,000
4%
2% 21,000
0% 20,000
07-20
07-22
07-23
07-15
07-21
01-14
07-14
01-15
01-16
07-16
01-17
07-17
01-18
07-18
01-19
07-19
01-21
01-20
01-22
01-23
01-24
03-20
09-20
03-22
09-22
03-23
09-23
03-21
09-21
03-16
09-16
03-17
09-17
03-18
09-18
03-19
09-19
Source: SBV, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:: SBV, FiinPro,Shinhan Securities Vietnam
03 Macro risks
Key issues that need to pay attention in 2024: Divergent monetary
policies put pressure on exchange rates; bad debts swell and damage
banking system; remained high inflation requires central banks to
maintain high interest rates longer; global economic recession;
escalating war; and surprises from the elections in US and some other
countries.
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
-2
01-18
04-18
07-18
10-18
01-19
04-19
Difference (%)
07-19
10-19
01-20
04-20
07-20
Source: Fred, SBV, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

10-20
01-21
Fed fund rate (%)

04-21
07-21
10-21
01-22
04-22
07-22
10-22
01-23
04-23
SBV refinancing rate (%)

07-23
10-23
20,000
40,000
60,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
09/26/2022
10/05/2022
10/14/2022
10/25/2022
11/03/2022
11/14/2022
11/23/2022
12/02/2022
12/13/2022
12/22/2022
01/03/2023
01/12/2023
01/30/2023
02/08/2023
02/17/2023
02/28/2023
Source: SBV, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
03/09/2023
03/20/2023
03/29/2023
04/07/2023
04/18/2023
04/27/2023
05/08/2023
05/17/2023
05/26/2023
06/06/2023
06/15/2023
06/26/2023
07/05/2023
07/14/2023
07/25/2023
08/03/2023
08/14/2023
08/23/2023
09/01/2023
OMO net injection/withdrawal
09/12/2023
09/21/2023
10/02/2023
InterBank Interest Rate - Term Overnight
1%
0%
2%
3%
4%
5%
7%
8%
9%
6%
80,000 NPL (Group 3-5) NPL (group 2-5) LLR
5% 160%
70,000
140%
60,000 4%
120%
50,000 100%
3%
40,000 80%
2% 60%
30,000
20,000 40%
1%
20%
10,000
0% 0%
0
2020Q1
2022Q1
2023Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q2
2023Q3
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024
Q3 Jul Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Jul Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: HNX, Shinhan Securities Vietnam – Data as of June 30, 2023 Source:: FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam_Data as of June 30, 2023
Nam Hoang
☎ (84-28) 6299-7603
Stock market outlook 2024
1. Stock market outlook - Getting ready for acceleration
 Stock market is still an attractive investment channel
 The market is currently trading at P/E of 13.6x, which
is lower than the 10-year average P/E of 15x
 Earnings growth of listed companies bottoming out in
2022Q4, expected 15% growth in 2024
 VNIndex sensitivity by market P/E and earning growth
of listed companies
 Emerging market upgrade opportunity ahead
2. Technical view – Markup phase
 Major events of stock market in 2023
 Supporting and risk factors of stock market in 2024
 Market scenario
Stock market outlook
01 Along with steady recovery of the economy, Vietnam stock market is
getting ready to accelerate in 2024. VNIndex is forecasted to increase
by 15% - 25% in 2024 backed by earning growth of listed companies
that showed signs of bottoming out in 2022Q4 and estimated to
increase by 4%/15% in 2023/2024, respectively. KRX system into
operation, MSCI emerging market upgrade bring even greater
expectations.
11% 9% 9%
10% 8% 8%
7% 7%
9%
6% 6%
8%
5% 5%
7% 4% 4%
6% 3% 3%
5% 2% 2%
4% 1% 1%
0% 0%
2/2023
2/2020
5/2020
8/2020
11/2020
2/2021
5/2021
8/2021
2/2022
5/2022
8/2022
5/2023
8/2023
11/2021
11/2022
2/2018
5/2018
8/2018
11/2018
2/2019
5/2019
8/2019
11/2019
01/2023
01/2020
10/2020
01/2021
10/2021
01/2022
10/2022
04/2020
07/2020
04/2021
07/2021
04/2022
07/2022
04/2023
07/2023
Lãi suất tiền gửi trung bình NHQD kì hạn 12T
CB - 12T SOB - 6T SOB - 12T CB - 6T
Tỉ suất sinh lời trung bình VNINDEX (E/P)
Source: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Note: Data taken from deposit interest rates of the 5 largest commercial banks
CB: Commercial Bank ; SOB: State-owned Bank
90 1,800 200 140%
80 1,600 180
120%
70 1,400 160
140 100%
60 1,200
120 80%
50 1,000
100
40 800 60%
80
30 600
60 40%
20 400
40
10 200 20%
20
0 0 0%
Tiền gửi của KH tại CTCK (nghìn tỷ VND - LHS) Dư nợ cho vay margin (nghìn tỷ VND - LHS)
GTGD (nghìn tỷ VND - RHS) Dư nợ margin/VSH - RSH
Source: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
01/2013 01/2014 01/2015 01/2016 01/2017 01/2018 01/2019 01/2020 01/2021 01/2022 01/2023
P/E cơ bản PE Trung bình -1std +1std
Source:: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnan – Data as of 03/10/2023

Quarterly earning growth of listed companies on HSX
100%
80% QoQ YoY
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4
Source: FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Yearly earning growth of listed companies on HSX Earning structure of listed companies on HSX (6M2023)
40% Technology Utilities Automobiles & Parts
2% 7% Banks
35%
Basic Resources
30% Real Estate Chemicals
16% Construction & Materials
25% Financial Services
20% Food & Beverage
Industrial Goods Health Care
15% & Services Banks Industrial Goods & Services
4% 54% Insurance
10%
Media
5% Oil & Gas
Food &
Personal & Household Goods
0% Beverage Financial Real Estate
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 5% Services Retail
-5%
2% Technology
Source: FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:: FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
2024 Earnings growth
Earnings yield (E/P) P/E 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

8.0% 12.5 1103 1156 1208 1261 1313
7.7% 13 1147 1202 1256 1311 1366
7.4% 13.5 1191 1248 1305 1361 1418
7.1% 14 1235 1294 1353 1412 1471
6.7% 15 1324 1387 1450 1513 1576
6.5% 15.5 1368 1433 1498 1563 1628
6.3% 16 1412 1479 1546 1613 1681
6.1% 16.5 1456 1525 1595 1664 1733
5.9% 17 1500 1571 1643 1714 1786
5.7% 17.5 1544 1618 1691 1765 1838
Source:Fiinpro, Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
6/2023 6/2024 6/2025
Nam Hoang
☎ (84-28) 6299-7603
Technical view – Market scenario
02 From technical perspective, VNIndex is expected to return “markup phase”
with target of 1350 - 1450 points (70% probability) and 1550 points (15%
probability), in line with the recovery of global and Vietnam economy. In the
negative scenario (15% probability), VNIndex will fluctuate in the range of
1050-1250 points when policy priorities of growth could not be effective.
Phuong Nguyen
☎ (84-28) 6299-9004
Banking – The recovery is gradually becoming clearer
1. The economy shows signs of reversal to support banking
sector
Economic growth in 9M2023 faces many difficulties when
world and domestic demand declines. However, some signs
of recovery have gradually become clearer in recent months.
2. Updated business result of listed banks
Business results in the first 6 months of 2023 are in line with
investors' expectations, credit growth is slow, NIM is
narrowed, non-performing loan increases sharply and non-
interest income is not positive, causing bank profits in the
first 6 months to drop slightly.
3. Many positive trends await for Banks in 2024
GDP growth in 2024 returns to 6% growth, credit growth
reaches 13-14%. Pre-tax profits of banks listed on HOSE are
expected to grow by 17%. The bank's valuation continues to
be attractive in the long term
4. Potential bank stocks
ACB, STB, TCB, MBB - The recovery is gradually becoming
clearer
Appendix – Notable legal policies
01 The economy shows signs of
reversal to support banking sector
Economic growth in 9M2023 faces many difficulties when
world and domestic demand declines. However, some signs
of recovery have gradually become clearer in recent months.
GDP growth by quarter for the period 2019-Q3/2023 (YoY) Cumulative credit growth as of July 2023 (%)
20.0% 12.0% 9.97% 11.04%
10.0% 9.43%
15.0%
10.0% 8.0%
5.30%
5.0% 6.0% 4.73%
4.0% 5.73%
0.0%
-5.0% 2.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
Service Growth (%)

Industrial sector and Construction Growth Cumulative credit growth-2023 (ytd %)
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Growth Cumulative credit growth in the same period -2022 (ytd %)
GDP growth (%)
Source: GSO, Fiinpro , Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: SBV, Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Credit growth breakdown in 7M2023 (%) GDP growth by industry group in 9M2023
8%
6% GDP accumulated 9M2023
4% growth rate: + 4.24%
2%
0%
01/2023 02/2023 03/2023 04/2023 05/2023 06/2023 07/2023
Credit growth Credit growth Credit growth Credit growth

Sector
07/2023 (% Ytd) 07/2022 (% Ytd) 07/2021 (% Ytd) 07/2020 (% Ytd)
Agriculture, Forestry and

2.20% 7.31% 2.06% 3.05%
Fisheries
Industrial sector and
4.81% 7.42% 6.92% 4.00%
construction
Commercial, Agriculture, Industrial Service
Transportation, 6.99% 9.17% 8.23% 3.81%
Forestry and sector and
Telecommunications
Fisheries construction
Other services 3.20% 11.79% 7.12% 4.49%
Total credit 4.54% 9.54% 6.92% 4.05%
Source: GSO, Fiinpro , Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: GSO, Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
GDP by service industry in 9M2023
Sector Total value (VND bn) Contribution (%) Growth in 9M2023 (% yoy)
Service 3,104,755 100% 6.32%
Wholesale and retail; Repair cars, motorbikes, motorbikes and other motor
738,452 24% 8.04%
vehicles
Transportation, warehousing 368,060 12% 8.66%

Accommodation and food services 185,630 6% 13.17%
Information and communication 260,556 8% 2.67%
Financial, banking and insurance activities 343,532 10% 6.91%
Real estate business 251,821 8% -0.95%
Professional, scientific and technological activities 159,081 5% 6.28%
Administrative operations and support services 93,618 3% 12.40%
Activities of the Communist Party and socio-political organizations; State

138,960 4% 5.55%
management, national security and defense; mandatory social guarantees
Education and training 274,192 10% 4.34%

Health and social assistance activities 186,772 6% 1.32%
Arts, entertainment and recreation 45,719 1% 11.35%
Other service activities 48,742 2% 10.56%
Activities of hiring for work in households, producing physical products and

9,620 0% 4.81%
services for self-consumption by households
Total GDP 7,268,043 4.24%

GDP of Agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector in 9M2023
Sector Value (VNDbn) Contribution (%) Growth in 9M2023 (% yoy)
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 836,618 100% 3.43%
Agriculture 597,112 71% 3.42%
Forestry 38,121 5% 3.13%
Seafood 201,385 24% 3.56%
Total GDP 7,268,043 4.24%

GDP of Industrial sector and construction in 9M2023

Sector Value (VNDbn) Contribution (%) Growth in 9M2023 (% yoy)
Industrial sector and construction 2,700,557 100% 2.41%
Industrial sector 2,263,942 84% 1.65%
Mining 183,789 7% -3.01%
Manufacturing and processing industry 1,732,161 64% 1.98%
Production and distribution of electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air
312,035 12% 2.90%
conditioning
Water supply; waste and wastewater management and treatment activities 35,957 1% 4.69%
Construction 436,615 16% 6.17%

Total GDP 7,268,043 4.24%
Industrial production index – IIP for the period 2022-2023 S&P Global PMI Vietnam index for the period 2022-2023
25
22.9 56 54.70
20
18.38 54
15 50
10 52
51.20
5 5.1 50
0 0.1 48
-5 46
-10
-12.4 44
-15 -14.6 45.30
42
-20
40
01/2022
10/2022
12/2022
01/2023
11/2022
08/2022
02/2022
03/2022
04/2022
05/2022
06/2022
07/2022
09/2022
02/2023
03/2023
04/2023
05/2023
06/2023
07/2023
08/2023
09/2023
IIP (yoy %) IIP (mom %)
PMI Neutral level
Source: GSO,, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: PMI, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Import-export activities show signs of improvement for many consecutive months (USDbn)
80.00 40.00
70.00 35.00
60.00 30.00
50.00 25.00
40.00 20.00
30.00 15.00
20.00 10.00
10.00 5.00
0.00 0.00
Import-export turnover (left) - USDbn Total imports (right) - USDbn Total Export (right) - USDbn
Source: GSO, Fiinpro , Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Updated business result of
02
listed banks
Business results in the first 6 months of 2023 are in line
with investors' expectations, credit growth is slow, NIM is
narrowed, bad debt increases sharply and non-interest
income grows negatively, causing bank profits in the first 6
months to decrease slightly.
17 banks listed on HOSE exchange
Industry market capitalization
~37% of market capitalization
Total assets as of
September 25, 2023
~VND12 quadrillion
Transaction value
~ 25% of total market
transaction value
Total equity as of
September 25, 2023
Trading volume ~VND1 quadrillion
~ 22% of the market's trading
volume
Top 5 banks with the largest assets (VNDbn) Top 5 banks with the largest equity capital (VNDbn)
2,500,000 150,000
2,000,000
1,500,000 100,000
1,000,000
50,000
500,000
0 0
BID VCB CTG MBB TCB VCB TCB CTG BID VPB
Source: Company data, Fiiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Company data, Fiiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Data extracted at 25/09/2023
The bank's main business
2.1 segment slowed down
Credit throughout the banking system as of August 2023 Credit growth of banks on HOSE in 6M2023
12,800 7.00% 2,000,000 6.6% 10.6% 9.7% 9.3% 7.6% 6.8% 12.7% 20.0%
Nghìn tỷ đồng
5.73% 6.7% 9.7% 5.2%

12,600 4.73% 5.30% 6.00% 6.8%
1,500,000
5.00% 2.8% 0.0%
5.0% 4.9%
12,400
4.00% 1,000,000 4.9% 1.0%
12,200 0.8%
-20.0%
3.00% 500,000
12,000
2.00%
11,800 0 -40.0%
1.00%
MBB
VPB
ACB
SSB
VIB
TCB
STB
HDB
OCB
BID
CTG
SHB
TPB
EIB
VCB
LPB
MSB
11,600 0.00%
Total credit in Q4/2022 (VND bn)
Total credit in Q1/2023 (VND bn)
Total credit as of Q2/2023 (VND bn)
Growth (ytd-%)
Total industry credit (VND trillion) Credit growth (Ytd-%)
Average growth in 6M/2023 reaches 6.07%
Source: SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Loans to customers of banks at the end of Q2/2023 (VNDbn) Banks reduce the proportion of corporate bonds (%)
2,000,000 30.0% 14%
7.0% 12.5% 11.5% 10.0%
10.9% 8.9% 13.2%
12%
1,500,000 6.6% 6.5%
5.7% 10.0% 10%
2.9% 5.2%
1,000,000 8%
5.0% 4.9% 7.6% 1.0%
1.2% -10.0%
500,000 6%
4%
0 -30.0%
2%
SSB
MBB
VPB
ACB
VIB
STB
CTG
TCB
HDB
OCB
BID
TPB
EIB
VCB
SHB
LPB
MSB
0%
Loans to customers at Q4/2022 (VND bn)
MBB
VPB
SSB
ACB
TCB
OCB
HDB
BID
VIB
CTG
STB
TPB
SHB
EIB
MSB
VCB
LPB
Growth (ytd-%) Proportion of total credit Q4/2022 Proportion of total credit Q2/2023
Average growth in 6T/2023 at 6.76%
Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Total deposit structure at the end of Q2/2023 Total deposit growth in 6M2023 (%)
100% 2,500,000 20.8% 6.2% 17.6% 11.2% 12.2% 30.0%
11.5%
7.48% 7.94% 5.8% 5.6% 7.7%
90% 2,000,000 2.2% 5.5% 6.0% 10.0%
-0.9%
80% 1,500,000
Valuable papers 3.7% 2.5%
-0.1% -10.0%
70% -4.0%
1,000,000
60% Customer deposits
73.53% -30.0%
76.55% 500,000
50%
40% Deposits and loans from 0 -50.0%
MBB
VPB
ACB
SSB
HDB
BID
VIB
OCB
TCB
CTG
STB
EIB
VCB
SHB
TPB
LPB
MSB
other credit institutions
30%
Debt to the Government, Total deposit at Q4/2022 (VNDbn)
20%
State Bank of Vietnam Total deposit at Q1/2023 (VNDbn)
10% 15.45%
14.90% Total deposit at Q2/2023 (VNDbn)
3.54% 0.61%
0% Growth (ytd-%)
Q4/2022 Q2/2023 Average growth in 6M/2023 reaches 4.10%
Source: Fiinpro, Financial reports of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Fiinpro, Financial reports of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Customer deposits grow well in 6M2023 (VND billion) Growth of customer deposits at banks on HOSE (%)
6,600 2,000,000 60%
6,400 4.9% 43.5%
6.7%
6,200 4.9%
1,500,000 27.9% 40%
6,000
4.5%
5,800 1,000,000 10.3%
13.2% 20%
6.6% 3. 7.8% 8.1%
5,600 7.2% 6.7%
5,400
500,000 3.8% 0%
5,200 2.6% 2.1%
5,000
0 -20%
4,800
VPB
MBB
ACB
VIB
SSB
CTG
HDB
OCB
BID
EIB
STB
TCB
TPB
VCB
SHB
LPB
MSB
01/2022
10/2022
12/2022
01/2023
11/2022
02/2022
03/2022
04/2022
05/2022
06/2022
07/2022
08/2022
09/2022
02/2023
03/2023
04/2023
05/2023
06/2023
Customer deposit at Q4/2022 (VND bn)
Customer deposit at Q1/2023 (VND bn)
Deposits of economic entities (VND trillion) Customer deposit at Q2/2023 (VND bn)
Growth (ytd-%)
Residents' deposits (VND trillion)
Average growth at 6M2023 at 8.03% (ytd)
Source: SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Fiinpro, Financial reports of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Proportion of bonds issued by credit institutions updated to
Valuable papers at banks on HOSE at the end of Q2/2023
June 30, 2023 (%)
500,000 22.6%
16.4%
24.3% 40%
23.3% 16.0% Real estate
15.0% 12.6%
20%
0.2% Securities trading
-0.5%
-20.2% -26.6% 0%
-1.6% Credit Other sectors
0.8% -25.3% institutions,
-20% Energy
-35.6% 30%
0 -40% Manufacture
MBB
VPB
ACB
TCB
SSB
VIB
HDB
OCB
STB
BID
CTG
TPB
EIB
LPB
SHB
VCB
MSB
Trade and service industry
Valuable papers in Q4/2022 (VND bn)
Valuable papers in Q1/2023 (VND bn) Credit institutions
Valuable papers in Q2/2023 (VND bn)
Construction
Growth (ytd-%)
Average growth in 6M/2023 reaches 9.17%
Source: Fiinpro, Financial reports of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: HNX CBonds,Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Government and SBV debt at banks on HOSE as of Q2.2023 Reverse Repo operation of the State Bank from early 2023
160,000 100%
30,000 10%
140,000 80%
60% 25,000
120,000 8%
40%
100,000 20% 20,000
80,000 0% 6%
60,000 -20% 15,000
-40% 4%
40,000
-60% 10,000
20,000 -80%
5,000 2%
0 -100%
OCB
SSB
MBB
VPB
HDB
ACB
VIB
CTG
TCB
STB
BID
TPB
SHB
EIB
VCB
MSB
LPB
- 0%
10/2022
12/2022
01/2023
11/2022
02/2023
09/2022
03/2023
04/2023
05/2023
06/2023
07/2023
08/2023
Government and State Bank debt in Q4.2022 (VND bn)
Government and State Bank debt in Q1.2023 (VND bn)
Government and State Bank debt in Q2.2023 (VND bn) Reverse repo bid (VND bn)
6M2023 average decrease around - 82.21% Overnight interbank interest rate (%)
Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: SBV, Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Net interest income of banks listed on HOSE in 6M2023
50,000 116.9%
13.9% 13.6% 14.0%
20.7%
14.7% 18.6% 8.6%
12.8%
40,000
1.1%
30,000 -6.8% 0.3%
-10.1% 5.8%
-11.8% -12.5%
20,000 -19.4%
10,000
0
VCB BID CTG MBB VPB TCB ACB STB SHB HDB VIB TPB LPB MSB OCB SSB EIB
Net interest income in 6M/2022 (VNDbn) Net interest income 6M/2023 (VNDbn)
Growth (ytd-%) Average growth in 6M/2023 at around 7.89%
Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Asset yield (IAE), Cost of capital (COF), Net interest margin (NIM) of
Net profit margin (NIM) – TTM
banks on HOSE in end of Q2.2023
10.00% 4.00%
3.94% 8.90%
9.00% 8.09% 20%
3.95%
8.00%
7.13% 3.90%
7.00% 5.72% 15%
6.00% 3.85%
3.84%
4.38% 96
-17 -17 21 -6 -7 10 -36 -3 -6 5 -12
5.00% 3.80% -83 -24 -50 -30
10% -104
3.40%
4.00% 3.76%
3.75%
3.00%
3.70% 5%
2.00%
1.00% 3.65%
0%
0.00% 3.60%
VPB
MBB
VIB
HDB
ACB
SSB
OCB
TCB
STB
CTG
BID
TPB
EIB
MSB
SHB
LPB
VCB
Q1/2022 Q2/2022 Q3/2022 Q4/2022 Q1/2023 Q2/2023
NIM-TTM -(Right) NIM as of Q4.2022 NIM as of Q1.2023

Asset yield - quarter (left) NIM as of Q2.2023 Changes (Bps)
Cost of fund - Quarter
CASA of banks by the end of Q2/2023 Deposit rates of banks trending down (%)
9.0%
60% +226 +213 +250
+197
+170 +200 8.0%
+162
50% +133
+150 7.0%
+74 +79 +85
+61
40% +49 +100 6.0%
+11 +50
-54
30% 5.0%
-29 -33
-40 0
4.0%
20% -50
3.0%
-100
10%
-150
0% -200
6-month deposit interest rates - 3 listed SOB
MBB
ACB
VPB
VIB
SSB
HDB
OCB
BID
TCB
STB
CTG
TPB
EIB
MSB
VCB
LPB
SHB 12-month deposit interest rates - 3 State-owned listed SOB
CASA at Q4/2022 CASA at Q1/2023 6-month deposit interest rates - 4 large Private JS. Commercial Banks
CASA at Q2/2023 Change QoQ (bps) 12-month deposit interest rates - 4 large Private JS Commercial Banks
Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Website các ngân hàng, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Structure of the bank's non-interest income on HOSE at the end
Divergence among non-interest incomes segments in 6M2023
of Q2/2023
30,000 -3%
100% 1% Income from capital
2%
contribution and share 25,000
purchase
26% 20,000
80% 34% Gain/loss from other
activities -33%
4% 15,000
2%
60% 7% Gain/loss from +13%
17% 10,000
13% investment securities
5,000 -44%
40% Profit/loss from buying +62%
and selling trading 0
49% Net profit Profit/loss Profit/loss Gain/loss Gain/loss Income from
45% securities
20% from service from foreign from buying from from other capital
Profit/loss from foreign
activities exchange and selling investment activities contribution
exchange trading trading trading securities and share
-1% activities activities securities purchase
0%
Net profit from service
6T/2022 6T/2023
activities 6M2022 (VNDbn) 6M2023 (VNDbn)
-20%
Bank fee income in 6M/2023 (VNDbn) The insurance industry was negatively affected in 6M/2023
100%
14,000 86% 6M2023 Fee revenue (VNDbn) Growth (%)
80%
12,000 Insurance premium revenue 112,741 -5.0%
60%
Non-life insurance premium revenue 34,910 1.3%
10,000 40%
33% 21%
19% 26% 20% Life insurance premium revenue 77,831 -7.9%
8,000 15%
5% 4% 0% Life insurance Proportion Growth (%)
6,000 -10% -10% -11% -9% -7%
-17% -20% New contracts 100% -31.3%
4,000 -27%
-52% -40% Investment-linked insurance products 61.20% -34.4%
2,000 -60%
-60%
Unit-linked insurance products 16.20% -52.5%
0 -80%
Term insurance products 30.70% -17.6%
CTG
VPB
MBB
ACB
VIB
HDB
SSB
OCB
BID
TCB
TPB
STB
EIB
VCB
MSB
LPB
SHB
Net profit from service activities 6M/2022 Mixed insurance products 0.70% -48.9%
Net profit from service activities 6M/2023
Remaining products 7.40% -44.9%
Growth (% yoy)
Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: AVI, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Other income of banks decreased sharply in 6M/2023
10,000
25.2% 37.4%
62.2%
8,000 -6.4% 0.7%
-63.9%
60.5%
-1.8% -0.8%
6,000
-57.9% -28.0%
-95.4% -73.6%
-58.9% -51.9% -93.3%
4,000
2,000
0
VPB CTG BID TCB VCB MBB ACB MSB HDB VIB SHB EIB SSB LPB STB OCB TPB
Other income 6M/2022 (VNDbn) Other income 6M/2023 (VNDbn) Growth (ytd -%)

CIR is strictly controlled by the bank in 6M/2023 The operating efficiency of banks decreased slightly in 6M/2023
55% MCK ROE TTM in Q4/2022 (%) ROE TTM in Q2/2023 (%) Change (bps)
50% ACB 26.49% 25.16% -133
45% BID 19.09% 19.57% +48
40% CTG 16.74% 15.95% -79
35% EIB 15.40% 12.57% -283
30% HDB 22.21% 21.09% -112
25% LPB 22.08% 15.94% -614
20% MBB 24.61% 23.23% -138
15% MSB 18.96% 17.78% -118
10% OCB 14.91% 16.53% +162
5% SHB 19.65% 18.27% -138
0% SSB 16.32% 13.14% -318
STB 13.83% 17.50% +367
SSB
MBB
ACB
VPB
VIB
STB
HDB
BID
TCB
OCB
CTG
EIB
TPB
SHB
LPB
VCB
MSB
TCB 19.52% 15.68% -384
CIR Q1/2022 TPB 21.50% 19.79% -171
CIR Q2/2022 VCB 23.99% 23.57% -42
CIR Q1/2023 VIB 29.75% 28.84% -91
CIR Q2/2023 VPB 19.14% 11.25% -789
CIR averagely in 6M2023 around 34.7% Average 20.25% 18.58% -167
Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
The bank's profit before tax in 6M/2023 Profit before tax compared to banks' target plans for 2023
30,000 Stock PBT 6T/2023 (VNDbn) PBT plan for 2023 (VNDbn) % target
ACB 9,989 20,058 50%
64%
25,000 BID 13,862 26,461 * 52%
47%
26% CTG 12,531 24,088 * 52%
20,000 18%
11% 8% 7% EIB 1,405 5,000 28%
3% 6% 5% 12%
15,000 HDB 5,484 13,197 42%
-20% -11% LPB 2,446 6,000 41%
-26% -32% -28%
10,000 MBB 12,735 26,100 49%
MSB 3,548 6,300 56%
-66%
5,000 OCB 2,560 6,000 43%
SHB 6,073 10,600 57%
0 SSB 2,016 5,600 36%
STB 4,755 9,500 50%
ACB
MBB
SSB
VIB
VPB
CTG
HDB
OCB
BID
EIB
STB
TCB
TPB
VCB
LPB
MSB
SHB
TCB 11,272 22,000 51%

Profit before tax 6M/2022 (VNDbn) TPB 3,383 8,700 39%
Profit before tax 6M/2023 (VNDbn) VCB 20,499 42,973 * 48%
Growth (% yoy) VIB 5,642 12,200 46%
VPB 5,162 24,003 22%
Average profit before tax growth decreased by 2.5%
Total 123,364 268,780 46%
Source: The banks’ resolutions, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
* BID, CTG set PBT growth target around10-15%, VCB’s target from15%. These numbers are calculated by 15% growth.
2.2 Bank asset quality declined
The banking group on HOSE simultaneously showed a
decline in asset quality. The Non-performing loan ratio
increased in all banks in this group, and the provision
buffer has also become much thinner compared to the end
of 2022.
Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the entire banking system at the The bank's capital adequacy ratio on HOSE at the end of
end of July 2023 December 2022
22.00% 21.14% 15.50%
13.50%
17.00%
11.50%
11.58% 11.63%
12.00% 9.52% 9.50%
7.50%
7.00%
5.50%
2.00% 3.50%
1.50%
-3.00% Whole banking State owned Private Joint venture
sector banks commercial bank, foreign -0.50%
MBB
OCB
ACB
HDB
SSB
VPB
VIB
CTG
STB
BID
EIB
TCB
SHB
TPB
VCB
MSB
LPB
banks
Capital adequacy ratio at the end of July 2023
Capital adequacy ratio at the end of December 202
Minimum regulatory ratio
Minimum regulatory rate
Source: SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
The bank's provisioning costs in 6M/2023 Provision expenses TTM/customer loan balance in Q2/2023
6.00%
14,000
5.00%
12,000
10,000 4.00%
8,000 3.00%
6,000
2.00%
4,000
1.00%
2,000
0.00%
0
VPB
MBB
SSB
ACB
HDB
VIB
OCB
CTG
STB
BID
TPB
TCB
SHB
LPB
MSB
VCB
EIB
SSB
VPB
MBB
VIB
ACB
HDB
OCB
CTG
BID
STB
TCB
TPB
EIB
SHB
VCB
MSB
LPB
Credit risk provision expense/Customer loan balance at the end of
Credit risk provision costs 6M/2022 (VNDbn) Q2/2023 (TTM)
Credit risk provision costs 6M/2023 (VNDbn) Credit risk provision cost/average loan balance at 1.45%
Credit risk costs increased by an average of 8.95%
Outstanding debt in group 2-5 at banks on HOSE at the end of Debt coverage ratio of group 2-5 of banks on HOSE at the end
Q2/2023 of Q2/2023
400%
20%
350%
18%
300%
16%
+354 +322
+273 +289 +296 250%
14% +141 +225 +129 +139
+93 +53 +71 +40 +63 +48
12% +27 +5
200%
10%
150%
8%
6% 100%
4% 50%
2%
0%
0%
SSB
ACB
MBB
OCB
TPB
VPB
HDB
BID
VIB
CTG
STB
TCB
EIB
VCB
LPB
SHB
MSB
VPB VIB HDB OCB MSB TPB MBB SHB EIB CTG BID LPB TCB STB SSB ACB VCB
Debt coverage ratio of groups 2-5 in Q4/2022
Debt group 2-5 at Q4/2022 Debt group 2-5 at Q2/2023 Change (Bps)
Debt coverage ratio of groups 2-5 in Q2/2023
Non-performing loan (NPL) of banks on HOSE at the end of Loan loss coverage ratio (LLR) of banks on HOSE at the end of
Q2/2023 Q2/2023
400%
11%
10% 350%
9%
300%
8%
+118 +137
7% +79 +95 +95 +85
+78 +48 +81 +13 +44 +35 +3 +16 +33 250%
+5 +15
6% 200%
5%
4% 150%
3% 100%
2%
50%
1%
0% 0%
MBB
TCB
ACB
STB
SSB
VPB
VIB
CTG
HDB
BID
TPB
OCB
EIB
VCB
LPB
SHB
MSB
VPB VIB OCB EIB SHB MSB LPB TPB HDB STB SSB BID MBBCTG TCB ACB VCB
NPL at Q4/2022 NPL at Q2/2023 Change (Bps) LLR at Q4/2022 LLR at Q2/2023
Banks’ valuation is still in
2.3 attractive territory
Although the current P/B valuation of banks listed on HOSE
has increased to some extent compared to the end of 2022, it
is still lower than the average valuation of the most recent 5
years.
Valuation of banks on HOSE (P/B) Policy interest rate and VN FIN index
2.9 1,800 8%
2.7 1,600 7%
2.5 1,400 6%
1,200
2.3 5%
1,000
2.1 4%
800
1.9 3%
600
400 2%
1.7
200 1%
1.5
0 0%
1.3
06/2018
09/2018
03/2019
06/2019
09/2019
12/2020
12/2021
12/2022
12/2018
12/2019
03/2020
06/2020
09/2020
09/2021
03/2021
06/2021
03/2022
06/2022
09/2022
03/2023
06/2023
09/2023
1.1
7/16/2018 7/16/2019 7/16/2020 7/16/2021 7/16/2022 7/16/2023
Rediscount interest rate Refinancing interest rate
PBV Average -1 std +1 std Overnight loan interest VN FIN
Source: Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: SBV,Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Risks from the corporate bond
2.4 market still exist
Decree 08/2023/ND-CP allows issuers to negotiate with
bondholders to postpone debt repayment periods and
change some bond terms, helping a large number of
corporate bonds to be extended by 12 months - 24 months.
With bond value largely concentrated in 2024, this will
continue to be an issue that needs attention in the near
future.
Corporate bonds by maturity date updated at the end of June 30,
Value of corporate bonds maturing in 2023-2024 (VNDbn)
2023 (VNDbn)
80,000
350,000
70,000
300,000
60,000
250,000
50,000
200,000 40,000
30,000
150,000
20,000
100,000
10,000
50,000
-
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2042
2023 2024
Source: HNX, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: HNX, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
03
GDP growth in 2024 returns to 6% growth, credit growth
reaches 13-14%. Pre-tax profits of banks listed on HOSE are
expected to grow by 17%. The bank's valuation continues
to be attractive in the long term.
Consensus projections of some economies around the world for the period 2023-2025
Index Real GDP CPI Unemployment rate
Country/year 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025
Vietnam 5.0 % 6.4 % 6.7 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.8 %
China 5.1 % 4.5 % 4.5 % 0.6 % 1.9 % 2.0 % 5.3 % 5.0 % 5.0 %
Hong Kong 4.0 % 3.0 % 2.9 % 2.0 % 2.2 % 2.3 % 3.1 % 3.0 % 3.0 %
India 7.0 % 6.1 % 6.3 % 6.6 % 5.4 % 4.6 %
Indonesia 5.0 % 5.0 % 5.2 % 3.7 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 5.5 % 5.4 % 5.2 %
South Korea 1.2 % 2.2 % 2.5 % 3.4 % 2.2 % 2.0 % 2.9 % 3.2 % 3.3 %
Malaysia 4.0 % 4.5 % 4.5 % 2.9 % 2.5 % 2.2 % 3.5 % 3.3 % 3.3 %
Phillipines 5.2 % 5.8 % 6.1 % 5.6 % 3.2 % 3.1 % 5.0 % 5.0 % 5.0 %
Singapore 1.1 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 4.9 % 3.0 % 1.9 % 2.0 % 2.1 % 2.0 %
Taiwan 0.9 % 2.9 % 2.6 % 2.1 % 1.5 % 1.8 % 3.6 % 3.5 % 3.6 %
Thailand 3.0 % 3.6 % 3.1 % 1.8 % 2.0 % 1.6 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 %
USA 2.0 % 0.9 % 1.9 % 4.1 % 2.6 % 2.3 % 3.7 % 4.3 % 4.3 %
Japan 1.8 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 3.1 % 1.9 % 1.4 % 2.6 % 2.5 % 2.3 %
Euro 0.6 % 0.9 % 1.5 % 5.6 % 2.7 % 2.1 % 6.5 % 6.7 % 6.7 %
United Kingdom 0.3 % 0.5 % 1.5 % 7.5 % 3.0 % 2.0 % 4.1 % 4.5 % 4.2 %
Canada 1.4 % 0.8 % 2.0 % 3.8 % 2.4 % 2.0 % 5.4 % 6.1 % 6.2 %
Australia 1.5 % 1.5 % 2.2 % 5.5 % 3.2 % 2.6 % 3.7 % 4.5 % 4.6 %
Sweden -0.5 % 0.6 % 2.0 % 8.4 % 2.8 % 2.0 % 7.6 % 7.9 % 7.7 %
New Zealand 0.7 % 1.0 % 2.3 % 5.4 % 2.7 % 2.1 % 3.8 % 4.9 % 5.0 %
Switzerland 0.8 % 1.3 % 1.6 % 2.3 % 1.5 % 1.4 % 2.1 % 2.2 % 2.1 %
Denmark 1.1 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 4.0 % 2.8 % 2.1 % 5.1 % 5.3 %
Norway 1.2 % 0.9 % 1.4 % 5.7 % 3.0 % 2.3 % 3.6 % 3.7 % 3.4 %
Germany -0.3 % 0.8 % 1.5 % 6.1 % 2.9 % 2.1 % 5.6 % 5.6 % 5.3 %
France 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.4 % 5.7 % 2.7 % 2.1 % 7.2 % 7.3 % 7.1 %
Italy 0.9 % 0.7 % 1.2 % 6.2 % 2.2 % 1.9 % 7.9 % 8.0 % 8.0 %
Source: Bloomberg Consensus, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Credit of Vietnam's economy 2023-2024 (VND trillion) Lending interest rates are expected to decrease in the near future
12%
17,000
11%
10%
14,000
9%
8%
11,000
7%
6%
8,000
5,000
12/2024
01/2023
12/2023
02/2023
03/2023
04/2023
05/2023
06/2023
07/2023
08/2023
LSAverage
cho vayloan interest
đối với rate for
các khoản chonew
vayand
mớiold
vàoutstanding
cũ còn dư nợloans - Upper
- Max
LSAverage
cho vayloan
đối với các khoản
interest cho
rate for vayand
new mớiold
và outstanding
cũ còn dư nợloans
- Min- Lower
Source: S&P Global PMI, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Net interest margin (NIM) for the period 2023F-2024F (%) Net interest income of the bank on HOSE (VNDbn)
600,000 30%
+17.3% 9.0% 3.79% 3.90% 4%
500,000 25% 8.0%
+6.5% 7.0% 4%
6.0%
400,000 20% 5.0% 4%
4.0% 3%
300,000 15% 3.0%
2.0% 3%
1.0%
200,000 10% 0.0% 3%
Q1/2023
Q2/2019
Q3/2019
Q4/2019
Q1/2020
Q1/2021
Q1/2022
2023F
2024F
Q1/2019
Q2/2020
Q3/2020
Q4/2020
Q2/2021
Q3/2021
Q4/2021
Q2/2022
Q3/2022
Q4/2022
Q2/2023
100,000 5%
0 0%
Q1/2020
Q2/2019
Q3/2019
Q4/2019
Q1/2021
Q1/2022
Q1/2023
2023F
2024F
Q1/2019
Q2/2021
Q3/2021
Q4/2021
Q2/2020
Q3/2020
Q4/2020
Q2/2022
Q3/2022
Q4/2022
Q2/2023
NIM TTM (Right) Asset yield- TTM (Left)
Net interest income Growth (% yoy) Cost of capital - TTM (Left)
Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Non-interest income of the bank (VNDbn) Total operating income of the bank (VNDbn)
180,000 30% +18%
+22% 800,000 30%
160,000 25% 700,000
140,000 +9% 25%
+9% 20% 600,000
120,000 20%
15% 500,000
100,000
10% 400,000 15%
80,000
5% 300,000
60,000 10%
40,000 0% 200,000
20,000 -5% 5%
100,000
0 -10% 0 0%
Q1/2022
Q2/2019
Q3/2019
Q4/2019
Q1/2020
Q1/2021
Q1/2023
2023F
2024F
Q1/2019
Q2/2020
Q3/2020
Q4/2020
Q2/2021
Q3/2021
Q4/2021
Q2/2022
Q3/2022
Q4/2022
Q2/2023
Q2/2019
Q3/2019
Q4/2019
Q1/2020
Q1/2021
Q1/2022
Q1/2023
2023F
2024F
Q1/2019
Q2/2020
Q3/2020
Q4/2020
Q2/2021
Q3/2021
Q4/2021
Q2/2022
Q3/2022
Q4/2022
Q2/2023
Non-interest income TTM (VNDbn) Growth (% yoy) Non-interest income TTM (VNDbn) Growth (% yoy)
Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Profit before tax of banks (VNDbn)
350,000 60%
300,000 50%
250,000
40%
200,000
30%
150,000
20%
100,000
50,000 10%
0 0%
Profit before tax (VNDbn) Growth (% yoy) CIR TTM (%)
Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam

04
ACB, STB, TCB, MBB - The recovery is gradually becoming clearer
Current Target price Growth of Growth of TOI Growth of
Market cap Upside (%) Asset/ NIM NPL CIR ROE P/B
Ticker price for 2024** NII 6T2023 6M2023 EBT 6M2023 LLR (%)
Equity (x) (TTM) (TTM) (TTM) (TTM) (TTM)
(VNDbn) (VND) (VND) (% YoY) (% YoY) (% YoY)
VCB 477,308 85,400 107,534** 25.9% 14% 10% 18% 13.4 3.3% 0.8% 385.8% 30.6% 23.6% 3.14
BID 213,470 42,200 58,310** 38.2% 1% 1% 26% 20.4 2.7% 1.6% 152.6% 34.6% 19.6% 1.95
VPB 137,925 20,950 27,670** 32.7% -10% -20% -66% 6.1 6.3% 6.5% 43.0% 28.6% 11.3% 1.37
CTG 141,275 28,700 39,390** 37.2% 15% 16% 8% 16.7 2.9% 1.3% 168.9% 29.2% 15.9% 1.18
TCB 112,727 32,050 50,640** 58.0% -19% -11% -20% 6.2 4.3% 1.1% 115.8% 33.9% 15.7% 0.93
MBB 94,636 18,150 30,053** 65.6% 14% 3% 7% 9.2 5.4% 1.4% 156.1% 32.6% 23.2% 1.15
ACB 84,672 21,800 31,800** 45.8% 13% 16% 11% 10.4 4.3% 1.1% 107.6% 37.4% 25.2% 1.35
SSB 60,116 24,500 N/A 0% -16% -28% 8.8 3.2% 2.2% 98.7% 40.3% 13.1% 2.17
STB 58,347 30,950 43,300** 39.9% 117% 20% 64% 15.3 4.2% 1.8% 77.1% 42.9% 17.5% 1.40
HDB 49,463 17,100 24,740** 44.7% 14% 13% 3% 10.7 4.8% 2.2% 61.3% 38.0% 21.1% 1.28
VIB 47,438 18,700 25,100** 34.2% 21% 18% 12% 10.5 4.7% 3.6% 39.1% 32.4% 28.8% 1.40
SHB 38,722 10,700 21,193* 19% 21% 5% 12.8 3.8% 2.6% 68.9% 22.3% 18.3% 0.81
TPB 36,987 16,800 20,967* -7% -7% -11% 10.2 3.6% 2.2% 60.9% 43.0% 19.8% 1.19
LPB 35,167 13,750 13,724* -12% -14% -32% 13.6 3.5% 2.2% 78.5% 42.8% 15.9% 1.20
EIB 29,682 17,050 20,251* -12% -15% -26% 9.0 2.9% 2.7% 43.6% 50.7% 12.6% 1.39
MSB 27,226 13,850 22,800* 9% 23% 6% 8.0 4.3% 2.6% 63.8% 38.4% 17.8% 0.94
OCB 27,700 13,250 16,300* 6% 17% 47% 7.7 3.8% 3.2% 47.5% 32.5% 16.5% 1.00
Source: Bloomberg updated on October 06, 2023, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

* Based on Bloomberg Consensus data on 12-month target prices of many forecasters;
** The target price in this report is forecast by SSV based on business results in 2024.
Bank maintains the top position in terms of asset quality
Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank (ACB) has a strategic orientation as the leading retail bank in Vietnam. This is also a bank with a cautious development
Target price (year 2024) VND 31,800 strategy, not investing in corporate bonds. In terms of asset quality, this bank is one of the pioneer banks to complete BASEL III standards. ACB has good
Current price (06/10/23) VND 21,800 credit growth and is increasingly perfecting its business model. We update ACB's valuation to increase compared to the most recent report due to the
decrease of risk-free interest rate and the adjusted down risk premium along with a comparison base based on the business results of the whole year
Upside (%) 45.8%
2024, the target price of ACB for 2024 is at 31,800 VND.
VNINDEX 1,129 Business results 6M/2023
PE market (23F) 12.3 ACB's credit growth improved positively compared to the negative growth result of 0.7% at the end of Q1/2023. Accumulated 6M2023, ACB's credit
Market cap (VNDbn) 87,197 growth reached a rate of 4.91% ytd, higher than that of the industry. NIM TTM moved along with the industry downward trend, from 4.32% at YE2022
Outstanding shares (shares mn) 3,884 to 4.26% at the end of Q2/2023. According to ACB, the bank adjusted lending interest rates faster than the reduction in costs of fund, causing NIM to
Free Float (shares mn) 2,948 continue to shrink. ACB's net interest income in 6M/2023 reached VND 12,461 billion (+12.8% yoy).
24,400/ ACB's non-interest income in 6M/2023 continues to show double-digit growth, 27.8% yoy. Although the fee income segment decreased by 17.7% yoy,
52-week high/low(VND)
15,174 the positive growth from trading securities, investment securities and FX trading activities helped non-interest income reach VND 3,483 billion. The
Average trading volume 90 days (shares mn) 9.39 bank’s non-performing loan increased from 0.97% at the end of Q1/2023 to 1.06% at the end of Q2/2023, the bank's loan loss coverage ratio is currently
Average trading value of 90 days (VNDbn) 200 at 108%. ACB's EBT in 6M/2023 reached VND 9,988 billion (+10.64% yoy) and reaching 50% of the whole year plan.
Beta 1.0 Investment thesis
DFHL 6.9 - Being a conservative bank, ACB does not invest in corporate bonds and limit lending to real estate businesses. With nearly 95% being retail and small
Major shareholder(%) and medium enterprise loans, and 98% being secured loans, we highly appreciate ACB's asset quality. This is also a few in the banking industry with a
Sather Gate 5 non-performing loan ratio around 1%.
- Non-interest income maintains growth of more than 20%, supporting ACB's income growth when credit demand slows significantly in 2023. We
Performance 3T 6T 12M
expect profit growth in 2024 to recover thanks to increase of credit growth, NIM is expected to stop shrinking and the bank's fee income showed
Absolute (%) -1.8 4.7 -2.9 more positive growing sign from low base of 2023.
Relative to VN-Index (%) -5.7 4.9 13.4 Forecast for 2023-24
- We forecast ACB to grow credit at 12% in 2023 and improve to 14% in 2024. The bank's NIM remains at 4.26% for 2024. ACB's profit before tax may
1,400 25,000 increase slightly by about 8.9% in 2023 and 21% for 2024, reaching VND 18,627 billion and VND 22,553 billion, respectively.
1,200 - Risks: (1) Risk of economic recovery being slower than expected; (2) Non-performing loan risk increases; (3) Exchange rates put pressure on interest
20,000 rates to increase again.
1,000
15,000
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
800
Net interest income (VND bn) 14,582 18,945 23,534 26,022 29,386
600 10,000 Net non-interest income (VND bn) 3,579 4,619 5,257 6,758 7,995
400 TOI (VND bn) 18,161 23,564 28,790 32,780 37,381
5,000 Profit before tax (VND bn) 9,596 11,998 17,114 18,627 22,553
200
Growth of PBT (%) 27.7 25.0 42.6 8.9 21
0 0
06/2022 09/2022 12/2022 03/2023
P/E (x) 6.9 6.9 6.0 5.1 4.3
P/B (x) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0
VN Index ACB VN EQUITY
ROE (%) 24.3 23.9 26.5 23.8 24.8
Source: Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Growth expectations after restructuring
Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank (STB) is in the group of private joint stock commercial banks with a large credit market share. STB
Target price (year 2024) VND 43,300 participates in the restructuring project after the merger of Phuong Nam Commercial Joint Stock Bank. VAMC bonds from the merger has significantly
Current price (06/10/23) VND 30,950 affected STB's business results in the period 2016-2022. However, 2023 may be the final year of the restructuring project and this will help the bank
grow strongly in the 2023-2024 period. With the residual income valuation method and P/B ratio, we value STB's 2024 price at VND 43,300.
Upside (%) 39.9%
Business results 6M/2023
VNINDEX 1,129
PE market (23F) 12.3 Sacombank's credit growth reached nearly 5%, interest income in 6M/2023 reached 11,588 billion VND (+117% yoy). However, STB's non-interest income
dropped sharply by nearly 67%. due to the decline in trust and agency services and this year did not record good amount related to liquidation of fixed
Market cap (VNDbn) 61,458
assets. Overall, total operating income grew by more than 20% after 6 months of operation. The bank shares that it is still on schedule in making
Outstanding shares (shares mn) 1,885 provisions related to VAMC, the cost of making provisions for credit risks after 6M/2023 is more than 2,300 billion VND and we expect STB to make a
Free Float (shares mn) 1,758 total provision of nearly VND 7,000 billion for 2023. STB's EBT after 6M reached a total of 4,755 billion VND, up 63.52% yoy and completing 50% of the
33,250/ whole year 2023 plan.
14,050
Investment thesis
Average trading volume 90 days (shares mn) 21.05
- STB expects to auction and complete the disposal of shares of Mr. Tram Be's group and Phong Phu Industrial Park in 2023. Successful disposal of
Average trading value of 90 days (VNDbn) 691
outstanding assets can bring extraordinary profits to STB, in addition to NIM of STB in 2024 can also be improved thanks to this capital source.
Beta 1.2
- STB will also make full provision for VAMC bonds, about VND 8,000 billion in 2023. With full provision for VAMC bonds, STB will no longer be under
Mr. Dương Công Minh 3.3 pressure to make large provisions in 2024.
Major shareholder(%)
CTBC Vietnam Equity
2.2 - After the restructuring project, STB has shared that it will pay dividends, increase charter capital and seek strategic partners in the near future.
fund.
Forecast for 2023-2024
- We forecast that STB's credit growth in 2023 will reach 9% over the same period, the Non-performing loan ratio maintains at 1.2%. STB's NIM
Absolute (%) 12.4 30.1 45.2
continued to improve to 3.8%. STB's pre-tax profit grew at a high rate of more than 45% thanks to the completion of provision for uncollectible
Relative to VN-Index (%) 3.8 14.2 47.0 interest related to the restructuring project. With the completion of VAMC bond provisioning, credit growth reached 14%, NIM continues to expand,
provisioning costs will decrease sharply, helping STB achieve +109% EBT growth for 2024.
1,400 35,000
- Risks: (1) Risk of economic recovery being slower than expected; (2) Non-performing loan risk increases; (3) Exchange rates put pressure on interest
1,200 30,000 rates to increase again
1,000 25,000
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
800 20,000 Net interest income (VND bn) 11,527 11,964 17,147 22,045 27,642
600 15,000 Net non-interest income (VND bn) 5,744 5,740 8,994 6,679 8,139
400 10,000 TOI (VND bn) 17,271 17,704 26,141 28,724 35,781
200 5,000 Profit before tax (VND bn) 3,339 4,400 6,339 9,147 19,150
0 0
Growth of PBT (%) 3.8 31.8 44.1 45.2 109
09/2022 12/2022 03/2023 06/2023 P/E (x) 17.6 13.8 9.3 8.7 4.3
P/B (x) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1
VN Index STB VN EQUITY
ROE (%) 9.6 10.8 13.8 17.2 28.9
Cost of capital is expected to improve sharply in the near future
Target price (year 2024) VND 50,640 Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint Stock Bank construction, real estate and home loans will continue to be Techcombank's pillar areas in the
future. This is also one of the banks that continuously invests heavily in digital banking services, thereby attracting many new customers to its platform.
Current price (06/10/23) VND 32,050 TCB Bank is currently one of the leading banks in the system with many important such as non-performing loan ratio, CASA or ROE. We update TCB's
Upside (%) 58.0% valuation in 2024 at VND 50,640 based on good business growth next year.
VNINDEX 1,129 Updated business results 6M/2023
PE market (23F) 12.3
119,938
TCB's credit balance in 6M2023 increased by 9.7% compared to the end of 2022, customer deposit balance increased by 6.6%. Non-performing loan
Market cap (VNDbn)
3,517
tends to increase but is still low compared to the whole industry, reaching only 1.07% at the end of Q2/2023. Accumulated 6M2023, TCB's net interest
Outstanding shares (shares mn)
2,714 income was recorded at VND 12,822 billion (-19.4% yoy). TTM NIM continued to narrow to 4.33%. Meanwhile, non-interest income grew well at more
Free Float (shares mn)
36,150/ than 15% (yoy) thanks to growth in card fees, payments and other income from selling investment real estate. CIR ratio has had positive developments,
19,300 returning to 30.8%, from 41.9% at the end of 2022. Shrinking NIM and increased credit costs have caused TCB's EBT to reach VND 11,272 billion (-20.1%
Average trading volume 90 days (shares mn) 5.33 yoy) , completing 51% of the profit plan for the whole year 2023.
Invesment thesis
Beta 1.3
- Savings deposit interest rates have decreased from the peak at the end of Q4 2022, and the proportion of banks' demand deposits has begun to
increase. Accordingly, the bank's NIM will likely be stable for the rest of 2023 and progress to a slight recovery in 2024.
Major shareholder(%) Masan 14.9
- Circular 03/2023/TT-NHNN and Decree 08/2023/ND-CP can help TCB's IB fee income segment to be less gloomy in the second half of 2023 and
recover in 2024.
- With a heavy focus on real estate, the revised land law, housing law and real estate business law passed could mark a market recovery in the second
Absolute (%) 4.8 28.0 -5.3 half of 2024.
Relative to VN-Index (%) -3.9 12.0 -3.5 Forecast for 2023-2024
- We forecast that TCB's credit growth for the whole year 2023 will reach 14% and accelerate to 18% for 2024. The Non-performing loan ratio will be
1,400 40,000 around 1-1.1%, NIM may reach 4.5% for the whole year 2023 and increase to 4.66% for 2024. EBT at the end of 2023-24 will reach VND 24,963
1,200 35,000 billion (-2.3% yoy) and VND 31,079 billion (+24.5% yoy) respectively.
1,000
30,000 - Risks: (1) Risk of slow economic growth/recession; (2) Non-performing loan risk increases; (3) The real estate market is slower to recover than expected
25,000 Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
800
20,000 Net interest income (VND bn) 18,751 26,699 30,290 30,024 35,329
600 Net non-interest income (VND bn)
15,000 8,627 10,378 10,612 12,421 15,034
400 TOI (VND bn) 27,379 37,076 40,902 42,445 50,363
10,000
200 Profit before tax (VND bn) 15,800 23,238 25,568 24,963 31,079
5,000
Growth of PBT (%) 23.1 47.1 10.0 -2.3 25
0 0
09/2022 12/2022 03/2023 06/2023 P/E (x) 8.1 5.5 5.0 6.0 4.8
P/B (x) 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8
VN Index TCB VN EQUITY ROE (%) 18.1 21.7 19.7 16.0 16.9

Good credit growth despite general market difficulties
Target price (year 2024) VND 30,053 Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB) has had many outstanding achievements in recent years, reflected in its asset quality, outstanding
profitability, and high credit rating by rating agencies. international. MBB has a close relationship with military enterprises such as Viettel, Vinacomin,
Current price (06/10/23) VND 18,150 Vietnam Helicopter, etc., helping the bank's demand deposit ratio at the highest level in the whole system, thereby helping MBB control control capital
Upside (%) 65.6% costs more effectively. We update MBB's stock valuation this time at 30,053 VND, to reflect positive business results in 2023 and continued growth
VNINDEX 1,129 momentum into 2024.
PE market (23F) 12.3
Updated business results 6M/2023
Market cap (VNDbn) 94,636
Outstanding shares (shares mn) 5,214 MBB's 6M23 total credit grew (+10.6% YTD, net interest income and TOI increased by 13.5% and 2.8%YoY, respectively, recording at VND19,708.5 billion
Free Float (shares mn) 3,050 and VND23,490.5 billion. MBB's credit growth was led from customer loan increase, reached VND 518,071 billion at the end of Q2.23 (+12.5% YTD;
24.7% YoY). With a good growth rate, in July 2023, the bank was granted an additional credit room from SBV, with a new credit room limit of 24.5%. Net
23,950/
13,200
interest income in Q2/2023 reached VND9,481.4 billion (+5.7% YoY)., MBB's NIM TTM approximately at 4.94%. In contrast to the core business, non-
11.1
interest income decreased by 7.7% YoY (mainly coming from the insurance fee, down 22.5% YoY), leading to total operating income only slightly
Average trading volume 90 days (shares mn)
increasing by +3% YoY, reaching VND 11,560.8 billion. In addition to good credit growth, profit MBB's 1H2023 profit was supported by a 12.8% YoY
reduction in risk provision expenses (equivalent to a decrease of VND448 billion). MBB's accumulated 6M2023 PBT recorded VND12,735 billion (+7%
Beta 1.3 YoY), on schedule of year target
VIETTEL Group 14.1 Invesment thesis
Major shareholder(%)
SCIC 9.4 - NPL ratio is expected to continue under control after Circular 02/2023/TT-NHNN was approved in April this year
- Receiving mandatory transfers and lending interest rates gradually cooling down support credit growth
- CASA leads the industry, keeping the cost of capital less volatile in the recent period, the bank's NIM remains at the top of the industry (only after
Absolute (%) -4.1 12.1 16.0 VPB)
Relative to VN-Index (%) 3.2 8.4 13.4 Forecast for 2023-2024
- We forecast that MBB's credit growth for the whole year 2023 will reach 18-20% and maintain this growth rate for 2024. The bad debt ratio is
1,400 25,000 around 1.5%, NIM could reach 5.48% for the whole year 2023 and increase slightly to 4.51% for 2024. EBT for the period 2023-24 will reach VND
25,463 billion (+12.20% yoy) and VND 29,594 billion (+16.2% yoy) respectively.
1,200
20,000
Risks: (1) Risks of slow economic growth/recession; (2) Risk of NPL increases faster than expected; (3) the real estate market recovered more slowly than
1,000
expected
800 15,000
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
600 10,000 Net interest income (VND bn) 20,278 26,200 36,023 40,964 47,537
400 Net non-interest income (VND bn) 7,084 10,735 9,570 7,433 10,829
5,000 TOI (VND bn) 27,362 36,934 45,593 48,397 58,366
200
Profit before tax (VND bn) 10,688 16,527 22,729 25,463 29,594
0 0
10/2022 01/2023 04/2023 07/2023 10/2023
Growth of PBT (%) 6.5 54.6 37.5 12.03 16.22
P/E (x) 5.5 6.1 5.4 4.3 3.7
VN Index MBB VN EQUITY P/B (x) 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7
ROE (%) 18.4 22.6 24.6 22.2 20.96
Policy Main content Impact
Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN - According to regulations, the maximum ratio of short-term capital used for Groups of private commercial banks with
medium and long-term loans according to the roadmap will be from 34% high ratio will need to restructure to meet
to 30% on October 1, 2023. the regulations of the circular.
Circular 06/2023/TT-NHNN and Circular - Circular 06 tightens four additional capital requirements that cannot be - Tighter bank lending activities towards
10/2023TT-NHNN loaned sustainable development
- Add capital usage plan in loan documents with home loan - Allowing debt rollovers at banks helps
- Allows banks to lend to customers to repay loans at other banks banks be more competitive on loan
- Circular 10/2023/TT-NHNN postpones the implementation of Clauses interest rates
8,9,10 in Article 8 of Circular 06/2023 to support the real estate market in - Postponement of implementation helps
the short term the real estate loan market to be able to
carry out transactions as usual
Law on credit institutions (amended) - Legalize non-performing loan handling policy Increase the safety of the credit institution
- Tighter lending and share ownership system, helping management agencies
- Additional regulations related to credit growth limits manage more effectively
- Along with a number of other contents that are still in the process of
getting feedback
Amending Circular 41/2016/TT-NHNN - Adjust credit risk coefficient for some loans Encourage loan demand for real estate
- Reduce the risk coefficient to buy social housing and housing under state development projects, industrial park real
support programs and projects. Supplement regulations on security ratio estate, and social housing
and debt repayment ability ratio for social housing loans
- Clarifying regulations to re-determine the security ratio (LTV) in real
estate, adding regulations on exchange rates due to equity revaluation.
The draft is still in the comment process
Land law (amended) - Synchronize planning and land use plans Helps remove overlapping bottlenecks,
- Complete regulations on land allocation, land lease, and change of land clears the source of land, helps stabilize
use purpose social life, and adds motivation to the real
Real estate business law (amended) - More specific regulations on compensation, resettlement support, and land estate market
recovery
Housing law (amended) - Complete the mechanism for determining land prices according to market
principles
- Regulating higher tax rates for people with large areas of land, many
houses, land speculation, slow use, and abandonment of landImprove legal
regulations related to the real estate market
Ngoc Le Trang Vo
☎ (84-28) 6299-8017 ☎ (84-28) 6299-7751
 [email protected]  [email protected]
Real estate Industry – Entering a new cycle
1. Overview and Update of The Real Estate Industry
The Real Estate industry plays an important role in
Vietnam's economy and has always been a field that
strongly attracts foreign direct investment. The Real Estate
industry contributes a large proportion to total credit and
corporate bond debt. Real Estate market was negative in
the first half of 2023 mainly due to the legal and capital
issues.
2. Prospects of The Real Estate Industry in 2024
Expect a recovery when (1) young population and income
improving over the years, (2) infrastructure invested
synchronously and widely, (3) economic growth in 2024
and (4) completed legal system are expected to promote
Real Estate. However, risks still exist when some companies
with large total payable cash flow in 2024.
3. Real Estate Stock Pick
VHM & NLG - New supply is the driving force for growth
4. Appendix
01
The Real Estate industry plays an important role in Vietnam's economy and
has always been a field that strongly attracts foreign direct investment. The
Real Estate industry contributes a large proportion to total credit and
corporate bond debt. Real Estate market was negative in the first half of
2023 mainly due to the legal and capital issues.

Real Estate accounts for an average of 4.0% of Vietnam's GDP Contribution of Real Estate in total stock market capitalization
5.0% Real Estate Marketcap %RE
4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
4.5% 22% 22% 25%
21%
20%
4.0% 1.60 17% 20%
3.6% 1.63 16%
3.5% 3.5%
VND Quadrillion
4.0%
3.5% 15%
1.10
3.0% 1.06 1.00 10%
0.98
0.86 0.91
0.60
2.5% 5%
2.0% 0.10 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9M2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 09.2023
Source:General Statistics Office, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
The Real Estate industry accounts for an average of 9.2% of stock Contribution of Real Estate to total revenue and net profit of
market total assets in the period 2018-06.2023 the stock market
Stock market TA Real Estate TA % RE Revenue Net income % Revenue % Net income
19.03 19.52
20.00 12.0% 400 370 30.0%
16.84 343
350 323 322
14.67 299 25.0%
11.0%
15.00 13.37 300
12.17
VND Quadrillion
20.0%
250 18.8%
VND Trillion
10.0% 17.6% 200
9.7% 9.7%
10.00 200 14.4% 14.4% 15.1% 15.0%
9.3% 12.9%
9.1% 9.0% 9.0% 150
8.8% 9.1% 9.3% 9.2% 6.4% 9.3% 10.0%
5.00 100 63
8.1% 8.0% 57 58
1.85 1.89 41 60 33 5.0%
0.99 1.21 1.36 1.51 50
0.00 7.0% 0 0.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 06.2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H2023
Source:FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Real Estate has always been in the top 3 fields having the highest registered FDI capital
FDI in Real Estate FDI in other fields % RE
19%
40,000 20%
16% 18%
34,143 15%
32,830 28,851 16%
30,000 13%
28,516 14%
11% 24,345
USD Million
10% 23,267 10% 12%

23,172 9%
20,000 20,362 10%
20,677 8%
17,685 7% 18,270 8%
4% 6%
10,000
4%
6,615 2%
951 2,545 2,395 1,686 3,054 3,876 4,185 2,637 4,451 1,937
0 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9M2023
Source:FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Financial leverage in the Real Estate industry is often relatively high compared to other industries
Total assets/equity RE Average of RE Average of other industries
3.40 3.25
3.20
2.93 2.97
3.00 2.9
2.81 2.84 2.82 2.83
2.74 2.71
2.80
2.52
2.60
2.41 2.38
2.40
2.20
2.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 06.2023

In the 2016-2022 period, an average of 18.49% of total credit to the economy comes from Real Estate
Total credit to the economy Credit to Real Estate % RE
15.0 40.0%
12.49
11.92
10.44 30.0%
9.19
VND Quadrillion
10.0
8.20
7.21 21.64% 21.62%
6.51 19.33% 19.55% 19.88% 20.0%
5.51 17.20% 18.07%
5.0 13.79%
2.58 2.70 10.0%
1.80 2.08
1.12 1.30 1.58
0.76
0.0 0.0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 06.2023
Source:State Bank of Vietnam, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Credit for Real Estate consumption declined after many years of positive growth
RE Consumption RE business % Consumption growth % Business growth
95.0%
2.5 0.95
0.81
90.57% 75.0%
2.0
VND Quadrillion
0.72
0.63 1.77 1.75 55.0%
1.5
0.52
1.35 31.05%
1.0 35.0%
1.16
1.06 16.27% 17.41%
0.5 21.45% 15.0%
3.17% -1.12%
9.57% 14.21% 11.50%
0.0 -5.0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 06.2023
Source:Ministry of Construction, State Bank of Vietnam, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Information on interest rate adjustments of the State Bank Average lending rate has gradually decreased
Interest rate Adjustment Lending rates for new and old outstanding loans - Highest
Lending rates for new and old outstanding loans - Lowest
Deposit interest rate ceiling 11.30% 11.10% 12.0%
1.0% -> 0.5%
(no term and less than 1 month)
11.0%
9.60%
Deposit interest rate ceiling 9.20% 9.30% 10.0%
6.00% -> 4.75%
(1 month to less than 6 months) 9.0%
7.80%
8.0%
Refinancing rate 6.0% -> 4.5%
7.0%
Discount rate 4.5% -> 3.0% 6.0%
3/2023
5/2023
2/2022
4/2022
5/2022
6/2022
7/2022
8/2022
9/2022
10/2022
12/2022
2/2023
4/2023
6/2023
1/2022
11/2022
1/2023
Inter-bank overnight interest rate 7.0% -> 5.0%
Source:SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Changes in commercial home loan interest rates at some major banks
01/2023 09/2023
Bank Preferential rate Maximum loan Maximum tenor Preferential IR Maximum loan Maximum tenor
(%/year) rate (%) (year) (%/year) rate (%) (year)
Vietcombank 11.0-12.0 70 15 8.0 70 20
Shinhan bank 10.9 70 30 8.0 70 30
Techcombank 10.6 70 35 8.5 70 35

Source:Batdongsan.com.vn, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Real Estate accounts for an average of 31.4% of issued corporate Real Estate accounts for an average of 24.5% of outstanding
bonds over the period 2018-2022 corporate bonds over the period 2018-2022
Total Real Estate % RE Total Real Estate % RE
39.9%
38.1% 785
800 40.0% 35.2% 40.0%
34.2% 36.2% 1.50 33.8%
700 32.3%
600 26.4% 30.0% 27.5% 30.0%

24.3% 24.1%
VND Quadrillion
482
500 1.00
VND Trillion
400 358 20.0% 15.6% 1.58 20.0%

284 13.2% 1.42
300 282 246 1.22
0.50 1.09
200 168 165 10.0% 10.0%
138 0.68
64 87 68 65 0.51 0.48
100 55 0.35 0.43
0.17 0.30
0 0.0% 0.00 0.09 0.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 8M2022 8M2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 09.2023

Payable cash flow of the corporate bond market in 2023 85.7% of late payment cash flow came from Real Estate
Total Real Estate % RE Total Real Estate % RE
120 60.0% 35 91.3% 100.0%

85.7%
48.7% 30
100 43.6% 50.0% 80.0%
25 60.0%
VND Trillion
80 40.0% 60.0%
VND Trillion
32.4% 20
60 30.0% 15 28 40.0%
110 76 24 23
40 20.0% 10 21
20.0%
48 37 5
20 34 10.0% 5
0 3 0.0%
0 11 0.0% Total late payment Principal Interest
Total payble cash flow Principal Interest cash flow
Some legal issues between Land Law and relevant legal documents
Some
legal
issues
Source:Ministry of Construction, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Supply structure by segment Social housing condos and worker housing from 2018 to 2030F
Ground, low-rise apartment Mid-end 700,000 634,200
High-end Luxury
600,000
Affordable 482,000
2%
4% 500,000
400,000
16%
300,000
155,792
53% 200,000
100,000
25%
0
2021 2025F 2030F
Source: VARS, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:Decision No. 338/QĐ-TTg, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Number of licensed commercial housing projects 1H2023 -53% Residential property supply in Hanoi and HCMC decreased by
YoY 69.8% YoY
35,000
Licensed commercial housing projects(LHS) Equivalent products (RHS) 31,067
30,000 30,000
26,107
40 24,324
25,000
18,660
30 20,000 20,000
15,000 12,300
20
10,200 9,391
6,753 5,995 10,000 10,000
7,187 6,150
10 4,960
3,239 5,000 3,241
39 29 36 22 17 15
0 0 0
Q1.2022 Q2.2022 Q3.2022 Q4.2022 Q1.2023 Q2.2023 Q1.2022 Q2.2022 Q3.2022 Q4.2022 Q1.2023 Q2.2023 1H2022 1H2023
Source:Ministry of Construction, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Number of condo sold in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City
25,000 23,306
20,000
17,259
15,000
10,350
10,000
6,740
6,047
4,779
5,000 3,331
1,961
0
Q1.2022 Q2.2022 Q3.2022 Q4.2022 Q1.2023 Q2.2023 1H2022 1H2023
Source:CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Condos sold in Ho Chi Minh City decreased sharply in 1H2023 Supply of landed property in HCMC was 15 products in 1H2023
1,000
New condo supply in HCMC Condo sold in HCMC 891
900
18,000 800
15,528
16,000
700
14,000
11,259 600
12,000
500
10,000
6,726 400 326
8,000 280
6,000 300
4,000 2,851 2,900 200
884 1,247 1,321 1,155 960 1,2541,500 100 32
2,000 0 15
0 0
Q1.2022 Q2.2022 Q3.2022 Q4.2022 Q1.2023 Q2.2023 Q1.2022 Q2.2022 Q3.2022 Q4.2022 Q1.2023 Q2.2023
Source:CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Condos sold in Hanoi decreased sharply in 1H2023 Hanoi’s sold landed property decreased by 73% YoY in 1H2023
New condo supply in Hanoi Condo sold in Hanoi New landed residential property supply Landed residential property sold
7,000 6,000 5,553 5,680 5,587

6,000 5,380
4,918
6,000 5,000
4,800 4,700
5,000
4,000
4,000 3,500 3,6403,624
3,260 3,279
3,000
3,000
2,176 2,000 1,820 2,000
2,000 1,136 1,2501,130
1,001 850
1,000 1,000 541
296 152
0 0
Q1.2022 Q2.2022 Q3.2022 Q4.2022 Q1.2023 Q2.2023 Q1.2022 Q2.2022 Q3.2022 Q4.2022 Q1.2023 Q2.2023
Source:CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Prospects of the
02
real estate industry in 2024
Expect a recovery when (1) young population and income improving
over the years, (2) infrastructure invested synchronously and widely,
(3) economic growth in 2024 and (4) completed legal system are
expected to promote Real Estate. However, risks still exist when some
companies with large total payable cash flow in 2024.

Vietnam population pyramid in 2021 Size and number of people of working age in a household
80+ 4
70 - 74
60 - 64 3.5
50 - 54
3
40 - 44
30 - 34 2.5
20 - 24
10 - 14 2
0-4 2010 2014 2018 2019 2020 2021
5 3 1 1 3 5 SốPeople/household
nhân khẩu bình quân 1 hộ gia đình
Female Male
Số người trong
People
People of độ tuổiage/household
ofworking
working lao động bình quân 1 hộ gia đình
age/household
Source: VARS, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:General Statistics Office of Vietnam , Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Forecasting the number of new and sold condos in Hanoi Forecasting the number of new and sold units in HCM
40,000 35,000
30,000
30,000 25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
10,000 10,000
5,000
- -
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Số cănlaunch
New mở mới SốSold
căn units
mở bán được SốNew
căn launch
mở mới SốSold
cănunits
mở bán được
Source: CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Large North - South
infrastructure Expressway P2
project to be
built in 9
months of
2023
Long Thanh Airport
Source:Ministry of Transport, Airports Corporation Of VietNam, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

HCM - Moc Bai
Expressway (Construction
starts in 2024)
Bien Hoa – Vung Tau

Expressway
(Completed in 2026)
Ring Road No.2

(Completed in 2026)
Ben Luc - Long Thanh

Ring Road No.3 (2022- (Completed in 2025)
2025)
Source:Batdongsan.com.vn, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
NTMK
Privia Khang Dien
Total products 6,600 units
Developer Phat Dat
Developer Khang Dien
Izumi Nam Long

Akari phase2
Developer Nam Long
Developer Nam Long
Vinhomes Grand Park

Mizuki phase 2
Developer Vinhomes
Developer Nam Long
Classia Khang Dien
Waterpoint phase 1 Total products 176 units
Total products 6,476 units Developer Khang Dien
Developer Nam Long
Emeria Khang Điền Melosa Khang Dien
Total products N/A Total products 567 units
Developer Khang Dien Developer Khang Dien
Source:Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Ring Road No.3 (Under Ring Road No.4
Construction) (Under Construction)
Phap Van-Cau Gie Hanoi - Hai Phong

Expressway (Under Expressway
Construction) (Completed)
Source:VietnamBiz, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Ocean Park 2&3 Vinhomes Golden Avenue
Heritage West Lake
Total products 34 high-rise condos Total products 2,300 units
Total products 173 units 22,000 low-rise buildings
Developer Vinhomes
Developer CapitaLand Developer Vinhomes
Vinhomes Smart City

Total products 58 high-rise condos
Developer Vinhomes
Green Gragon City

Vinhomes Green Bay
Total products N/A
Total products ~3,000 units
Developer TTP
Developer Vinhomes
Golden Land Tower Hoang Huy Riverside Minato Residence
Total products 713 units Total products 325 units Total products 924 units
Developer Hoang Huy Developer Hoang Huy Developer Minato
Source:Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024F will be 6.0% Low interest rates will support credit growth of 14% by 2024F
9.0% 14.00%
8.02% 14.0%
8.0% 12.00%
7.0% 12.0%
6.00%
6.0% 10.0%
5.00%
5.0% 8.0%
6.27%
4.0% 5.73%
6.0%
3.0% 2.58%
4.0%
2.0%
1.0% 2.0%
0.0% 0.0%
2021 2022 2023F 2024F 9M2023 Q42023 2023F 2024F
Source:GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Main issues of the Draft Amendment Laws 2023
Source:thuvienphapluat.com, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Peak 1 Peak 2 Peak 3 Recovery Peak 4 Recovery
1993 1995 2000 2003 2005 2008 2013 2017 2020 2022 2024 2026
Bottom 1 Bottom 2 Bottom 3 Slow down Quiet
7 years 5 years 8 years 10 years (2 years of Next cycle

Covid-19)
Source:Cushman &Wakefield, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Payble cash flow on corporate bonds will be highest in 2024
Total market Real Estate % RE
450 43.0% 50.0%

43.6%
400 45.0%
37.9% 36.7%
350 34.6% 40.0%
35.0%
300
VND Trillion
30.0%
250
428 25.0%
200
20.0%
150 317
15.0%
100 184 205 10.0%
50 110 120 98 5.0%
71
48 36
0 0.0%
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Payable Cash Flow for corporate bonds
2023 2024 2025 2026 Total
(VND Billion)
NVL 564 9,402 2,348 7,835 20,149
VHM 144 4,957 183 2,273 7,557
HPX 789 1,359 541 0 2,689
NLG 88 1,169 793 111 2,161
VPI 34 1,451 263 0 1,748
KDH 18 132 1,214 0 1,364
PDR 1,078 154 0 0 1,232
DIG 52 995 0 0 1,047
DXG 17 216 221 0 454
Source: FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
03 Real Estate Stock Pick
VHM & NLG - New supply is the driving force for growth
General information Financial ratios Valuation
Net Income
Rev. Growth
Market Target Market Land Growth ROE P/E P/B
Upside (% YoY)
Stock cap Price* Price Fund (% YoY)
(%)
(VND Bn.) (VND) (VND) (ha) 5y 5y
2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F Trailing 2024F Trailing 2024F
Average Average
VHM 198,124 77,000 46,050 67.2% 16,000 35.4% 13.0% 15.7% 10.3% 18.5% 16.9% 4.40 7.59 9.10 1.19 2.37 1.60
VRE 59,307 36,700 27,450 33.7% N/A 28.5% 4.5% 39.7% 9.5% 9.8% 10.8% 16.43 31.06 19.60 1.67 2.28 1.60
NLG 13,443 44,200 32,200 37.3% 684 -5.6% 77.2% -12.5% 55.2% 3.6% 5.3% 23.48 15.01 20.30 1.49 1.75 1.20
KDH 23,405 36,860 29,500 24.9% 600 -5.5% 74.6% 12.1% 9.8% 8.2% 8.2% 25.50 19.93 18.60 1.92 2.27 1.90
(*) Target price (fair value) within 12 months

Souce: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Data as of 06/10/2023
The Top Tier
Vinhomes's predecessor was Urban BIDV-PP JSC, established in 2008. Following VinGroup's restructuring goal, in 2018, Vinhomes was
Target price (12 months) VND77,000 merged with two other companies to focus on taking charge of VinGroup's real estate investment and business activities.
Current price (06/10/23) VND 46,050 Since 2010, Vinhomes has been cumulatively selling 212.5 thousand condos/villas/townhouses; put 28 urban areas into operation,
recorded the number of Vinhomes residents reached 425,000 people. Based on the RNAV valuation method, we issue a BUY rating for
Return(%) 67.2%
VHM, at a target price of VND 77,000 – equivalent to an expected return of 67.2% (compared to the closing price on October 06,
VNINDEX 1,129 2023).
Market P/E (x) 11.1 Investment thesis
Marketcap (billion VND) 200,519 - A large, clean and continuously expanding land fund is the strong foundation for long-term growth potential. Currently, VHM owns an
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 4,354 estimated land fund of more than 16,000 hectares which are mainly approved for project investment policies; In 1H2023 alone, VHM
Free-float (mil shares) 1,034 successfully bid and expanded its land fund in many key areas such as: 1,254 hectares in Khanh Hoa, 241 hectares in Hai Phong and 197
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 66,200/39,400 hectares in Long An.
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares) 4.2 - The Empire and The Crown will be handed over in 2023-2024, helping VHM net profit increase by 15.7% and 10.3% in 2023 and 2024..
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 281 Outlook for 2023 and 2024
VIC 69.30% - We forecast that converted revenue in 2023 and 2024 will reach VND 110,245 bn (+35.4% YoY) and VND124,555 bn (+13% YoY),
Major SHDs (%)
Governmentof Singapore 4.99%
respectively, thanks to:
+ 2023: Record VND 100,000 bn in revenue from handing over products at The Empire and The Crown..
Performance 3M 6M 12M
+ 2024: Handover of low-rise products at The Crown and wholesale of high-rise products at The Crown, The Empire.
Absolute (%) -15.5 -10.1 -14.1
- Net profit accordingly reaches: VND 33,345 bn (+15.7% YoY) in 2023 and VND 36,779 bn (+10.3% YoY) in 2024.
Rel.to VN-Index (%) -15.7 -15.4 -19.1
Risk: (1) Legal congestion, (2) Credit scarcity, (3) Low absorption rate.
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
1,400 70,000
Revenue (bil VND) 71,547 84,986 62,393 110,245 124,555
1,200 60,000
1,000 50,000 GP (bil VND) 25,936 48,460 30,696 58,215 62,777
800 40,000 NP (bil VND) 27,351 38,825 28,831 33,345 36,779
600 30,000
EPS (VND) 6,396 9,015 6,621 7,658 8,446
400 20,000
200 10,000 GPM 39.2 57.2 49.2 52.8 50.4
0 0 NPM 38.2 45.7 46.2 30.2 29.5
ROE (%) 38.6 36.9 21.4 18.5 16.9
P/E (x) 10.8 9.1 7.2 10.1 9.1
VN Index VHM VN EQUITY

P/B (x) 3.4 2.9 1.4 1.9 1.6
Source: Company data, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Recovery Through Proper Segmentation
Target price (12 months) VND44,200 Nam Long Investment Corporation is one of the leading real estate developers in the mid and affordable segment. NLG's main
products are Valora (townhouses, villas), Flora (detached condos) and Ehome/EhomeS (Affordable condos) with revenue structures of
Current price (06/10/23) VND 32,200 56%, 36% and 8% respectively. .
Return(%) 37.3% Investment thesis
- NLG owns a large land fund of 684 hectares, mainly concentrated in the East (Bien Hoa, Dong Nai) and the Southwest (Ben Luc, Long
VNINDEX 1,129 An). The land fund in these two areas is located in a favorable location, adjacent to major highways and ring roads such as Ho Chi Minh
Market P/E (x) 11.1 City - Trung Luong, Ring Road No.3,... This helps add value to the projects and allows businesses to continuously carry out projects to
Marketcap (billion VND) 12,367 maintain cash flow.
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 384 - Affordable products help with good absorption in a quiet market period. In particular, Akari phase 2 continues to be a key project to
Free-float (mil shares) 218 help businesses maintain cash flow.
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 40,750/16,450 - Healthy financial position with low leverage thanks to association with Japanese investors. Specifically, in the first 6 months of 2023,
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares) 3.1 total assets/equity was 2.05x, lower than the industry average of 2.84x.
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 119
Business results update and forecast
- In the first 6 months of 2023, the business's revenue reached VND 1,188 billion (-35% YoY). Revenue mainly comes from handing over
Nguyen Xuan Quang 11.57%
Major SHDs (%)
88 villas and townhouses at the Waterpoint project (Southgate). Pre-sales value reached VND 867 billion, of which 43% came from the
Ibeworth Pte 8.19% Akari project. We expect that NLG's 2023 revenue will reach VND 4,097 billion (-5% YoY) thanks to (1) handing over of the Izumi phase
1A1 project in October 2023, (2) the delivery of the project's Flora apartment of Akari and Ehome Southgate in phase 2, (3) handing
Performance 3M 6M 12M over of the Rivera and The Aqua 1.
Absolute (%) -0.9 10.3 20.8 - In 2024, revenue is expected to reach VND 7,261 billion (+77% YoY). Of which, about 50% comes from the Akari phase 2 project, and
15.8
nearly 30% comes from the handover of Waterpoint Southgate's Valora apartment. NPAT reached VND 836 billion (71.68% YoY).
Rel.to VN-Index (%) -1.1 4.9
Risk: (1) Legal delay, (2) Absorption rate is lower than expected.
1,400 45,000 Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
1,200 40,000
35,000 Revenue (bil VND) 2,217 5,206 4,339 4,097 7,261
1,000 30,000
800 25,000 OP (bil VND) 236 781 829 755 1,201
600 20,000 NP (bil VND) 835 1,071 556 487 756
400 15,000
10,000 EPS (VND) 2,689 3,099 1,339 1,268 2,178
200 5,000
0 0 OPM 10.7 15.0 19.1 18.4 16.5
NPM 37.7 20.6 12.8 11.9 10.4
ROE (%) 14.7 14.0 5.7 3.6 5.3
P/E (x) 9.9 20.7 23.2 34.9 20.3
VN Index NLG VN EQUITY P/B (x) 1.4 2.8 1.3 1.3 1.2
04 Legal, policy and real estate cycle
2022
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul

Policy Date issued Content
Allowing the extension of the bond term but at a maximum period of no more than 2 years versus the
Decree No. 08/2023/ND-CP 05/03/2023 initial term in the bond issuance plan announced to investors and the principal can be paid. Bond
interest is equal to other assets. This reduces pressure on bond payments in the short term.
- Assigning the State Bank to implement a credit program of about 120,000 billion VND to complete at
least 1 million social housing apartments. This credit is for investors and home buyers of social
Decision No. 33/NQ-CP 11/03/2023 housing projects and workers' houses to borrow at an interest rate 1.5-2% lower than the average
medium and long-term lending interest rate of state-owned commercial banks.
- Assigning the State Bank to consider adjusting risk coefficients for different real estate segments.
Amending and supplementing a number of articles of decrees implementing the Land Law:
- Adding additional conditions to allow conversion of rice land use purpose to implement investment
projects
Decree No. 10/2023/NĐ-CP 03/04/2023
- Modifying the authority to issue land use right certificates
- From May 20, 2023, if a tourist apartment (condotel) meets the conditions prescribed by law, it will
be issued a Certificate (red book).
- Approving the Project "Investment and construction of at least 01 million social housing apartments
for low-income people and industrial park workers in the period 2021 - 2030".
- By 2030, the total number of apartments completed in localities is about 1,062,200 units. Of which, in
the period 2021 - 2025, about 428,000 units will be completed; In the period 2025 - 2030, about
Decision No. 388/QĐ-TTg 03/04/2023
634,200 units will be completed.
- Amending the regulation that social housing projects must reserve at least 20% of the social housing
area in the project for rent and the investor can only sell after 5 years of putting into use according to
the direction and business plan (sale, lease, lease purchase) decided by the Investor.
Circulars No. 02/2023/TT-NHNN Regulations on credit institutions and foreign bank branches restructuring debt repayment terms and
23/04/2023
Circulars No. 03/2023/TT-NHNN maintaining the same debt group to support customers in difficulty.
Source Thư viện Pháp luật, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Legislation Content
 Completing the mechanism for determining land prices according to market principles
 Regulating higher tax rates for people with large areas of land, many houses, land speculation, slow use, and
Draft revised Land Law abandonment of land
 Completing regulations on land allocation, land lease, and change of land use purpose
 Supplementing subjects and conditions to enjoy social housing policies

 Specifying incentives for project investors:
- In the case of building social housing for rent, the value-added tax and corporate income tax will be reduced by
70% of the tax payable compared to the case of building social housing for lease, purchase, or sale;
Draft revised Housing Law - Investors of social housing construction projects in the form specified in Points dd and e, Clause 1, Article 42 of this
Law are entitled to reserve 20% of the total residential land area within the project scope for investment in housing
construction for business
 Supplementing and amending proposals on renovating and rebuilding apartment buildings
 Supplementing regulations on publicizing information about real estate put into business, including mortgages of
houses, construction works, real estate projects put into business, type of real estate, real estate location, …
 In cases where an investor is selected, recognized, and assigned to be the investor of a real estate project
Draft revised Law on Real Estate
according to the provisions of law, it must have equity of not less than 20% of the total investment capital for the
Business
project with land use scale of less than 20 hectares, not less than 15% of total investment capital for projects with
land use scale of 20 hectares or more.
 Additional regulations on conditions for houses and construction works formed in the future to be put into business.
Source:Thư viện Pháp luật, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Peak 2 Peak 3 Peak 4
Peak 1 The owner of the
program allows
Vietnam joined Vietnam officially Real estate has
overseas Vietnamese
ASEAN, the National joined the WTO, shown signs of
to buy a house. Land
recovery since 2013.
1993-1994
2000–2002
Assembly passed the
2007-2008
surplus capital from
2014-2018
prices increased
Land Law for the securities transferred Many new types of
sharply and reached
first time and to Real Estate. Land real estate such as
a peak. Enterprise
allowed the transfer prices increased officetel, condotel,
Law (2000) and
of land use rights. shophouse. In 2018,
Foreign Investment
land fever spread.
Law (2001) were
issued.
Bottom 1 Bottom 2 Bottom 3 Bottom 4

1995-1999
The State issued Decree The Land Law 2003
2003-2006
2019-2022
Tightening credit Global geopolitical
2009-2013
18 and 97 on land lease and Decree 181 policies control the and economic
to prevent speculation ended the situation real estate bubble, instability. Land fever
and regulate the market. of dividing lots and real estate prices occurred locally and
The massive discharge of selling plots. Real plummet, especially quickly. Credit and
real estate has caused estate business affecting investors legal tightening
real estate to be in a profits dropped using high financial caused real estate to
state of oversupply. sharply, causing leverage. fall into lockdown.
capital to flow into
stocks.
2 4 6 8

Diem Ngo Linh Pham Thao Nguyen
☎ (84-28) 6299-7759 ☎ (84-28) 6299 ☎ (84-28) 6299-8004
 [email protected]  [email protected]  [email protected]
Diem Ngo
☎ (84-28) 6299-7759
Fisheries – Back to the race
1. Overview of fisheries sector 2023
Pangasius and Shrimp exporting are facing difficulties

in the first half of 2023
2. Outlook for 2024 of fisheries sector
Expect a recovery when (1) inventories of importers

decrease and (2) soybean prices decrease which helps
improve the gross profit margin
3. Fisheries Stock pick
VHC, ANV, FMC – The recovery of export

Overview of
Fisheries Sector in 2023
01
During 8M/2023, fisheries exports reached USD 5.8 billion (-25% YoY).
Shrimp and pangasius exports achieved USD 2.2 billion (-28% YoY)
and USD 1.2 billion (-34% YoY), respectively. However, pangasius
exports have narrowed their decline compared to previous months

Accounting for 58% of total Accounting for 42% of total
fisheries production, with the fisheries production, with the
volume of 485.8 thousand tons in volume of 351.5 thousand tons in Processing
Farming Fishing
August (+3.8% YoY) August (-0.5% YoY) factories
Fingerling Farming area

• Autonomy in raw
• materials: 40%.
• • 80% is raised in
• Mekong Delta
• USD 2.2 billion (-
28% YoY)
• 38% total export • USD 0.42 billion (-15% YoY) • USD 0.55 billion (-25% YoY)
value • 7% total export value • 9% total export value • 847 fisheries
processing
factories
• 692 factories
• Autonomy in raw were granted EU
materials: 80%. Code export
• 70% is raised in codes
Mekong Delta.
• Total export’s
• USD 1.2 billion (-34%
capacity is 4.5-5
YoY)
mil tons of raw
• 21% total export
materials/year
value • USD 0.09 billion (-11%YoY) • USD 0.11 billion (-20%YoY)
• 2% total export value • 2% total export value
Medicine Feed
Almost companies are Almost the products are caught in

selfsufficient in feed North Central and Central Coast
production but not in
medicine
Total export value 8M/2023: USD 5.8 billion (-25% YoY) Export
USD 1.02 bil (-38%
YoY)
In which: USD 0.2 bil (-6%
USD 0.98 bil (-18% USD 0.5 bil
Pangasius: USD USD 0.97 bil (- YoY)
• YoY) (-23% YoY)
0.18 bil (-56% 14% YoY) In which:
In which: In which:
Yoy) In which: • Pangasius:
• Pangasius: • Shrimp:
Shrimp: USD Shrimp: USD USD 0.05
• • USD 0.38 bil USD
0.45 bil (-27% 0.33 bil (- billion (+0.2%
(-30% Yoy) 0.23 bil
YoY) 30% YoY) YoY)
• Shrimp: USD (-31%
0.39 bil (-5% YoY)
YoY)
Export value of fisheries from 2018 – 2023F (USD million) Fisheries export by type in 8M/2023
12,000 40%
10,000 31% 30%

24% 25%
20%
8,000 38%
10%
6,000 6%
0% 7%
-4% -2%
4,000
-10%
9%
2,000 -18% -20%
21%
0 -30%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
Export value Growth YoY Shrimp Pangasius Tuna Squid and octopus Others
Source:VASEP, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:VASEP, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
In 2023, inflation occurred globally, making commodity prices more expensive and people reducing spending, leading to a decline
in seafood consumption (because seafood is not an essential food for many countries, such as the US and EU). The average total seafood
consumption per capita in the US is 14.6kg/person/year.
Exports of pangasius and shrimp in the first half of 2023 will continuously decrease due to the high inventory of the US, the
top import market, weak demand, and Vietnamese shrimp prices that are also not competitive with cheap shrimp from Ecuador and
India. Also, the comparison with last year's high base is also a reason for the large decrease in numbers. Exports of other types of fisheries
also decreased by double digits, but their contribution to the revenue proportion was not high.
We forecast that this year's fisheries exports will reach 9 billion USD (-18% YoY), lower than the target of USD 10 billion, with the
expectation that exports will improve in the second half of the year when the holiday season is approaching.
Volume and price of pangasius export 2022-8/2023 Pangasius’s raw material price size 850g-1kg 2016-2023 (VND)
350 3.5 40,000
300 3.0 35,000
250 2.5 30,000
200 2.0 25,000
150 1.5 26,500
20,000
100 1.0
15,000
50 0.5
10,000
0 0.0
5,000
Feb-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Jul-23
Apr-22
Aug-22
Aug-23
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
0
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Feb-23
Jul-23
Jul-18
Apr-17
Feb-18
Dec-18
May-19
Oct-19
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Apr-22
Sep-22
Nov-21
Volume (thousand tons) Value (million USD) Price (USD/kg)
Source:Agromonitor, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Agromonitor, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Vietnam's pangasius revenue structure includes 82% frozen fillets and 16% butterfly-cut pangasius (mainly for exporting to the Chinese
market).
Due to weak demand and high inventory, in 7M/2023, pangasius export prices and output continuously decreased compared to the same
period last year. However, in August 2023, the situation showed more positive signs when pangasius exports improved in quantity
and value compared to the previous month, even though pangasius export prices were still on the bottom line. We expect pangasius
exports for 2023 to reach 1.7 USD (-28% YoY).
The poor export situation causes the price of raw material pangasius to decrease, making people have no motivation to raise fish and are
still waiting for higher prices to sell. The price of raw material size 850g-1kg is currently at 26,500 VND, the lowest since 2022. Normally, raw
material pangasius prices will decrease sharply in May and increase again in October, so we expect prices to recover next quarter.
Volume and export price of whiteleg and black tiger shrimp in VN Cost of producing whiteleg shrimp of VN, India and Ecuador
2022-7T/2023 (USD/kg)
40 15 4.5
4.0 3.27
30
10 3.5
20 3.0 3.08
5 2.5
10
2.0 1.88
0 0 1.5
Jul-22
Feb-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Dec-22
Mar-22
Aug-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jan-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Jun-23
1.0
Feb-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Jan-23
Jan-22
Mar-22
Aug-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Whiteleg shrimp's volume (thousand tons)
Black tiger shrimp's volume (thousand tons)
Price pf whiteleg shrimp (USD/kg) Vietnam India Ecuador
Price of black tiger shrimp (USD/kg)
Source:Agromonitor, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Agromonitor, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Vietnam exports mainly whiteleg shrimp, which account for ~75% of revenue. In 8M/2023, shrimp exports reached USD 2.2 billion.
Our country's shrimp have a higher export price because production costs are much higher than in other countries due to the low shrimp
survival rate (India: 60–70%, Ecuador: 90%). The shrimp industry is expected to have a higher export value in 2H2023 when signals
of orders have returned, especially when the China&Hong Kong markets have shown signs of growth in orders.
Shrimp exports in 1H2023 decreased in value compared to previous years due to a sharp drop in prices, though export output increased
month by month. Vietnam's main shrimp import markets are the US, China & Hong Kong, Japan, etc., all of which have decreased in price
due to inflation, so people have shifted to consuming cheaper products. We forecast that shrimp exports this year will reach USD 3.4
billion (-21% YoY), 29% lower than VASEP's plan at the beginning of the year.
Shrimp’s export volume of major exporters 2012-2022 (tons) Shrimp’s import volume of major importers 2012-2022 (tons)
3,500,000 3,500,000
3,000,000 3,000,000
2,500,000 2,500,000
2,000,000 2,000,000
1,500,000 1,500,000
1,000,000 1,000,000
500,000 500,000
0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ecuador India Viet Nam Others US EU Japan China+Vietnam Others
Source:Shrimp Insights, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:Shrimp Insights, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
 In the first half of the year, India and Ecuador still grew in output but will slow down in the second half of the year because of
slow demand, high production costs, and the unexpected situation of El Nino. According to Shrimp Insights, India may reduce output to -
15% YoY, and Ecuador has no output growth in the second half.
 India's shrimp exports in 1H2023 were -1% YoY due to selling off inventory and production at the end of the 2022 season. Since
2021, India's shrimp exports have continuously decreased in both price and output.
 Ecuador's shrimp exports in the first half of this year are still growing well but are being affected by slowing growth from the
beginning of 2022 until now. Ecuador's shrimp is cheap and promoted with the national shrimp brand, so it will have many advantages
over other exporting countries.
Potentials of
02 Fisheries Sector in 2024
The seafood industry will recover in 2024 as market inventories
decrease next year and lower soybean meal prices help improve profit
margins
Pangasius’ s selling price to US 2016-2024F (USD/kg) Pangasius’ s selling price to China 2022-2024F (USD/kg)
6.00 3.00
5.00
2.50
4.00
2.00
3.00
2.00 1.50
1.00
1.00
Feb-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Jul-23
2023F
2024F
Jan-22
Mar-22
Aug-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
0.00
Oct-21
Jul-21
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
2023F
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jul-23
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Apr-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jan-21
Fillet Butterfly cut
Source:Agromonitor, VASEP, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Agromonitor, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
 The price of pangasius exported to the US has dropped sharply since October 2022, extending the decline into the second quarter of
2023. Currently, inventory in the US market is still high, leading to exports to the US still being stagnant in the third quarter. The 7-month
average price of pangasius exported to the US is 3.3 USD/kg. We forecast that the average price of pangasius exports to the US in
2023 will be 3.2 USD/kg and in 2024 will be 3.8 USD/kg based on expectations of recovery in output as well as value when
inventory in the US market decreases and demand returns.
 The Chinese market is Vietnam's second-largest pangasius import market and mainly imports butterfly-cut pangasius. The Chinese market
has recovered slowly because it has not recovered in the post-COVID-19 period, the unemployment rate is high, and this market also has a
smaller price size requirement than other markets. However, since the beginning of the year until now, exports to the Chinese market have
remained quite stable because pangasius products are still cheap. We forecast that the fillet selling price to the Chinese market in
2023 will be at 2.0 USD/kg and in 2024 will reach 2.3 USD/kg.
Export volume of shrimp to the US 2021-7M/2023 (thousand tons) Selling price of shrimp to the US 2017-7T2023 (USD/kg)
40.0 13.0
35.0 12.0 10.5
30.0 11.0
25.0 10.0
20.0 9.0 7.85
15.0 8.0
10.0 7.0
5.0 6.0 6.89
0.0 5.0
Jul-23
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jul-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Jan-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Jan-20
Apr-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Viet Nam Ecuador India Viet Nam Ecuador India
Source: NOAA, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: NOAA, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
 The US market accounted for about 20% of Vietnam's total shrimp exports in 7M/2023. Currently, Vietnam accounts for ~6%, India
accounts for 39%, and Ecuador accounts for ~25% of the market share in the US. Since the beginning of the year, US import demand has
decreased due to high inflation, so people have turned to canned products and high inventory levels due to high imports at the end of
last year.
 Since the Q2/2023, our country's production costs have decreased significantly due to a deep decrease in food prices (accounting for
more than 60%). Along with that, Vietnamese products exported to the US are mainly deep-processed shrimp and account for a market
share of about 25% (1% lower than India).
 We expect the US market to return to import growth in 2H2023 with deeply processed shrimp products as the holiday season
approaches and inventories decrease.
Export volume of shrimp to Japan 2021-2023 (thousand tons) Selling price of shrimp to Japan 2021-2023 (USD/kg)
8.0 13.0
7.0 12.0
6.0 11.0
5.0 10.0
4.0 9.0
3.0 8.0
2.0 7.0
1.0 6.0
0.0 5.0
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-21
Mar-23
Mar-21
May-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
May-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
May-23
Nov-21
Vietnam Indonesia India Viet Nam Thailand Indonesia India
Source:Trade Statistics of Japan, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Trade Statistics of Japan, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
 The Japanese market ranks 3rd among Vietnam's shrimp importers, but Vietnam is Japan's leading shrimp supplier. From the beginning of
the year, Vietnam has always been the country that exports the most to Japan in terms of both output and value because Vietnam has
deeply processed products that Japan likes, such as kariage, tempura,...
 In our opinion, the Japan market will bring a huge source of revenue to Vietnam when the second largest shrimp exporter to Japan, India,
is gradually decreasing from 2021. Along with maintaining the advantage of deep-processed shrimp to expand market share and thereby
get better selling prices than competitors in the industry.
Price of soybean meal imported from the US 2017-2023 (VND)
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
1/3/2017
11/3/2017
1/3/2018
11/3/2018
1/3/2019
11/3/2019
9/3/2021
7/3/2022
3/3/2017
5/3/2017
7/3/2017
9/3/2017
3/3/2018
5/3/2018
7/3/2018
9/3/2018
3/3/2019
5/3/2019
7/3/2019
9/3/2019
3/3/2020
5/3/2020
7/3/2020
9/3/2020
3/3/2021
5/3/2021
7/3/2021
3/3/2022
5/3/2022
9/3/2022
3/3/2023
5/3/2023
7/3/2023
9/3/2023
11/3/2021
1/3/2020
11/3/2020
1/3/2022
11/3/2022
1/3/2023
1/3/2021
Source:Trade Economics, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
 Recently, consuming white fish has been more popular thanks to the preference of having healthy diet. The main types of white fish
consumed are Alaska pollock, cod, tilapia, and pangasius. Vietnamese pangasius will have the most advantage based on the following
factors: (1) Vietnamese pangasius enjoys an import tax rate of 0% while China’s tilapia is taxed at 25%, so Vietnamese pangasius will have
a better price advantage; (2) The US and EU favor wild-caught fish such as cod and Alaska pollock, but in the long term, this trend will
gradually decrease because these two types of fish have been overexploited and will soon no longer be available for fishing.
 The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has just officially issued preliminary results of POR19 for Vietnamese frozen pangasius fillets
exported to the US. Accordingly, there are two defendant enterprises that are required to have the DOC preliminary determine the anti-
dumping tax rate: VHC 0.00 USD/kg and CCA 0.14 USD/kg. The remaining businesses receive a national tax rate of 0.14 USD/kg.
 Along with that, the price of soybean meal is trending down, which will benefit pangasius farming businesses because feed costs account
for a large part of the cost of production.
Mkt share of countries export deeply processed shrimp to the US Mkt share of countries export deeply processed shrimp to Japan
60 120
Ecuador
50 100 Myanmar
40 80
30 Indonesia
60
20 Vietnam
40 Indonesia
10 Vietnam
20
0
-10 China 0
India China
-20 -20 India
-30 Thailand -40 Thailand
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Source:ITC, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: ITC, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
 Though Vietnamese shrimp have difficulty competing in the frozen shrimp segment, they have quite an advantage in the deep-processed
shrimp segment. Vietnam's market share of deeply processed shrimp is the highest in the world, with ~41% of which:
 In the Japan market, we account for more than 37% of the market share, just behind Thailand with 38.5%, but the annual growth rate is
7% while Thailand is -17%.
 In the US market, our country accounts for ~25% of the market share, behind India (26%) and Indonesia (28%).
 It can be seen that Vietnam's market share in developed countries is quite high and is only about 1-2% lower than that of major exporting
countries. However, the selling price is 10–25% higher. If our country can maintain its market share of deep-processed shrimp, improve its
skills, and take advantage of tax exemption and reduction agreements from EVFTA, CPTPP, and anti-dumping tax, then its market share
will have the opportunity to expand in the coming years. Especially when the import tax into the EU for deep-processed shrimp will
be 5% in 2025 and 0% in 2027.
03
Fisheries Stock Pick
VHC, ANV, FMC – The recovery of export
Gross profit margin of the entire industry and prominent listed companies Q2/2021-Q2/2023 (%)
30%
25%
20%
14% 15%
12% 13% 14%
15% 12% 13% 13%
13%
10%
5%
0%
Q2/2021 Q3/2021 Q4/2021 Q1/2022 Q2/2022 Q3/2022 Q4/2022 Q1/2023 Q2/2023
VHC ANV IDI FMC MPC Industry
Source:Trade Economics, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Business results of fisheries companies in Q2/2023:
 Pangasius: 2022 is a booming year for the pangasius industry when revenue and profits reach records. However, in 2023, the export
situation gradually slows down due to inflation and increased inventories in importing countries and lasts until Q2/2023, causing selling
prices to decrease and food costs to increase, reducing industry-wide profits.
 Shrimp: Our country's shrimp industry is inherently competitive in selling price compared to other countries, along with weak demand in
2023 due to inflation, causing selling prices and export output to decrease. Along with that, unfavorable weather conditions make shrimp
farming difficult.
Rev
Revenue Target
Main Mkt Cap growth GPM ROA ROE EPS
Ticker Q2/2023 P/E 2024F P/B 2024F price*
products (bn VND) Q2/2023 Q2/2023 (TTM) (TTM) 2024F
(bn VND) (VND)
(QoQ)
VHC Pangasius 14,817 2,731 22.6% 21.3% 10.9% 16.8% 11,037 9.5 1.9 102,800
ANV Pangasius 4,992 1,091 -5.8% 4.4% 4.8% 9.1% 6,288 5.9 1.4 54,600
MPC** Shrimp 7,768 2,350 10.7% 14.1% 4.8% 9.0% 1.009 19.3 1.4 16,900
FMC Shrimp 3,269 1,033 2.2% 8.6% 8.8% 14.1% 5,117 9.8 1.3 65,800
Souce: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Data as of 06/10/2023
(*) Target price (fair value) within 12 months
(**) Data from Bloomberg
Expected to recover from the end of Q3/2023
Target price (12 months) VND102,800 Vinh Hoan Corporation is the leading pangasius enterprise in Vietnam, with an export proportion of more than 15%. The year 2023 is
forecast to be a difficult year for the pangasius industry in general and Vinh Hoan in particular. However, we estimate that the
Current price (06/10/23) VND 81,400 company's pangasius export segment will recover from late Q3/2023 to early Q4/2023 thanks to the improvement in demand from
Return(%) 26% the US market.
VNINDEX 1,112 Investment catalysts & theses
Market P/E (x) 15.3
- Pangasius segment: We evaluate that this segment will be affected by concerns about price and output decline. However, the
Marketcap (billion VND) 14,927
situation in the second half of the year will become more optimistic thanks to the recovery of order quantity, and supermarkets in
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 183
the US market are reducing prices to boost customers' purchases.
Free-float (mil shares) 91
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 86,300/53,300 - Along with that, expanding farming areas and investing in fish breeding centers will help the company increase the proportion of
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares) 0.96 self-sufficient raw materials to 75% and increase the survival rate in pangasius farming. In 2024, the company's main business
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 76 segment will recover when US imports grow.
Truong Thi Le Khanh 43.16 - Collagen & Gelatin and Sa Giang:: In these two areas, the company will focus on developing more markets. The gelatin factory will
Major SHDs (%) be invested to expand its capacity, and the company will focus on developing new products with foreign partners by participating
Dragon Capital 6.93
in seafood trade fairs.
- Processing dried fruit: Thanh Ngoc Company is expected to officially go into operation in June 2023 after a trial period. The
Absolute (%) 21.4 47.8 -1.4 company’s management expects the gross margin of this segment to be 15% and contribute revenue of VND 350 billion.
Rel.to VN-Index (%) 18.8 38.5 -3.9 Risk:
(1) Risk of export; (2) Shortage of supply
1,400 100,000
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
1,200
80,000 Revenue (bil VND) 7,037 9,054 13,231 10,676 15,426
1,000
OP (bil VND) 695 1,199 2,254 1,410 2,511
800 60,000
NP (bil VND) 719 1,107 2,013 1,238 2,214
600 40,000 EPS (VND) 3,923 5,993 10,771 6,172 11,037
400 BPS (VND) 28,225 32,087 41,959 43,518 54,766
20,000
200 OPM 9.9 13.2 17.0 13.2 16.3
0 0 NPM 10.2 12.2 15.2 11.6 14.4
ROE (%) 14.3 20.0 29.6 15.2 22.9
P/E (x) 10.24 10.5 6.5 17.0 9.5
P/B (x) 1.42 2.0 1.7 2.4 1.9
VN Index VHC VN EQUITY EV/EBITDA (x) 8.1 8.1 5.1 9.2 5.8
Reaching out to the new sea
Nam Viet Corporation (HoSE: ANV) is one of the leading enterprises in Vietnam's pangasius export industry, with 100% autonomy from
Target price (12 months) VND54,600 farming areas and fingerlings to feed.
Investment catalysts & theses
Current price (6/10/23) VND 38,200
Return(%) 43% - Expectation of export growth from main export markets and new market: Revenue from the China market accounted for nearly 20%
of the company’s total revenue. After stopping cooperation with partner Shanghai Fenglei, the market share in China’s market will
VNINDEX 1,112
increase significantly. In the beginning of August 2022, Nam Viet started exporting the first pangasius containers to the US after
Market P/E (x) 15.3
nearly 10 years. In the last 5 months of 2022, the US market brought in 1.9 million USD, equivalent to 1.4% of the company’s export
Marketcap (billion VND) 5,085 revenue. It is expected that revenue from the US market this year will contribute significantly to ANV's revenue after the company
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 133 enjoys 0% tax antidumping duties.
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 41,950/15,000 - The advantage of autonomy in farming areas helps control costs: Nam Viet is a leading company in the industry with 100% autonomy
from the farming area, fingerlings, raw materials, and feed factory to the processing factory. This will help the company have an
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares) 2.30
advantage in input costs, helping it improve its gross profit margin compared to competitors. The company is also building a Binh
Phu farming area with 600ha to help supply enough for all customer orders.
DoanToi 53.77
Major SHDs (%) Outlook for 2023 and 2024
Doan Chi Thanh 12.85
- 2023 will not be a very positive year for the pangasius industry when inventories from other countries are still high, leading to an
Performance 3M 6M 12M oversupply that reduces the export prices of pangasius. Along with that, inflation is still anchored at a high level on a global scale,
12.0
which may affect ANV's business results in 2023; however, we expect the company's revenue to recover in 2024 and growth to
Absolute (%) 3.5 121.3
return to normal in 2025.
Rel.to VN-Index (%) 4.5 17.4 8.5
Risk: (1) Risk of investigating in new market; (2) Risk of investing in new segments
1,400 45,000
1,200 40,000 Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
35,000 Revenue (bil VND)
1,000 3,439 3,494 4,897 3,953 5,584
30,000
800
OP (bil VND) 244 216 863 212 1,004
25,000
NP (bil VND) 203 129 674 115 840
600 20,000
15,000 EPS (VND) 1,590 1,013 5,300 898 6,288
400 BPS (VND) 18,300 18,313 22,598 22,923 27,181
10,000
200 5,000 OPM 7.1 6.2 17.6 5.4 18.0
0 0 NPM 5.9 3.7 13.8 2.9 15.0
ROE (%) 8.6 5.5 25.8 3.9 25.6
P/E (x) 4.37 32.9 4.3 41.0 5.9
P/B (x) 1.30 1.8 1.0 1.6 1.4
VN Index ANV VN EQUITY EV/EBITDA (x) 14.0 16.5 4.5 33.7 7.2
Sustainable growth
Sao Ta Foods JSC (HOSE: FMC) is one of the leading shrimp exporters in Vietnam while always maintaining its position in the top 5 largest
shrimp exporters in Vietnam. FMC is now self-sufficient in 30% of raw materials in a farming area of 505ha.
Target price (12 months) VND65,800
- Shifting the revenue structure to the Japanese market and maintaining the US market: Since 2022, the company has advocated increasing
Return(%) 31.1% exports to Japan and South Korea because of its location advantage. The geographical proximity to Vietnam helps reduce selling costs,
VNINDEX 1,112 along with the company’s product lines that are also suitable for the Japanese market. The two sides have a long-term cooperation
Market P/E (x) 15.3 relationship. We think this is the right step for the company in the situation where the shrimp industry is facing difficulties when exporting
to the US because the price is higher than in other exporting countries. In the first half of 2023, the proportion of revenue in the following
markets was: Japan (40%), the US (18%), Western Europe (24%), Korea (6%), and Australia (6%).
Free-float (mil shares) 23 - Healthy financial structure: The company has a healthy financial structure with the lowest debt ratio in the industry (debt/equity ratio: 0.24,
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 53,500/28,600 debt/total assets: 0.17). We consider this to be a bright spot for the company in the context of the shrimp industry, which has a rather
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares) 0.07 precarious business model.
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 3 - Good cost management helps the company to have the highest net profit margin in the industry: Though the company has the lowest gross
37.75 profit margin in the industry, it is quite stable thanks to good management of expenses, such as good inventory management with the
The PAN Group lowest inventory days in the industry, along with the restructuring of revenue through the Asian market to help reduce selling costs and
Major SHDs (%)
C.P. Vietnam improving gross margin thanks to food support from C.P. Group.
24.90
Livestock Co., Ltd
Outlook for 2023 and 2024
- 2023 will not be a positive year for the shrimp industry when the weather is unfavorable, with the selling price of Vietnam's shrimp,
Absolute (%) 10.2 20.3 1.1
especially FMC, which is still high compared to other countries. Along with that, inflation is still anchored at a high level on a global scale,
Rel.to VN-Index (%) 7.7 11.0 -1.4 which may affect FMC's business results in 2023. However, we expect the company's growth to return in the coming years as the company
expands its farming area (~255ha) and increases its factory capacity to prepare for the coming years
1,400 60,000
Risk: (1) Risk of unfavorable weather and macroeconomic conditions
1,200 50,000
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
1,000
40,000 Revenue (bil VND) 4,415 5,199 5,702 5,037 5,409
800
30,000 OP (bil VND) 225 265 307 294 341
600 NP (bil VND)
20,000
226 287 321 298 348
400 EPS (VND) 4,607 4,677 4,605 4,387 5,117
200 10,000 BPS (VND) 22,044 30,231 32,361 34,686 37,770
0 0 OPM 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.3
NPM 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.4
ROE (%) 18.8 22.4 15.7 13.6 14.7
P/E (x) 6.8 10.8 7.0 11.4 9.8
VN Index FMC VN EQUITY P/B (x) 1.4 1.7 1.0 1.4 1.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.4 9.2 5.6 8.8 7.9
Linh Pham
☎ (84) 938942078
Textile and Garment – Revival signals
1. Textile and garments industry overview
Top 3 global footprint of Vietnam textile and garments exports
Benefits from US demands and FTAs
Less competitive advantages as high labor costs
2. 8M2023 updates of textile and garments sector
15.3% YoY decreases of textile and garments exports in 8M2023
73% YoY tumbles of listed textile and garments companies’ earning
3. Textile and garments industry outlook 2024
Lower retail inventory and recovered demands in markets
Expected revival imports of raw materials and yarns in Q4/2023
Positive YoY growth of textile IIP since Q2/2023
4. Textile and Garment Stock pick
STK - Expanded capacity from the new Unitex 1 factory and new
orders moving from China
01
Textile and garment is a key industry of Vietnam, ranking in the
Top 3 largest textile exporting countries in the world. In 2022, the
textile industry will reach USD 44.5bn in 2022, +5% CAGR of
export value in 2018-2022
T&G export contributed 3rd largest shares in the world T&G export value increased by 11% CAGR from 2010-2022
(USDbn) (USDbn) (%)
400
50 50
350
China
300 40
30
250 30
200 10 20
150
(10) 10
100 India Vietnam Bangladesh
Germany 0
50
(30)
0 T&G export value (L) Growth YoY (R) (10)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
(50) (20)
(CAGR growth of export value in countries from 2018-2022) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source:Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: VietnamCustom, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
The US is the largest export market of Vietnam T&G industry Vietnam T&G has strongly expanded the US market since 2019
(%) China Vietnam CAFTA-DR*

Export market share Bangladesh USCMA**
40
Vietnam T&G industry, 2022
20% 35
US 30
25
49% Japan
8% 20
EU
15
Korea 10
14%
Other 5
0
9%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5T2023
Source: Vietnam Custom, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:USFIA, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
*CAFTA-DR: CAFTA free trade agreement includes the US - Dominican Republic - Central America
**USCMA: NAFTA trade agreement includes US-Mexico-Canada
Tax reduction roadmaps of EVFTA on T&G products 58% T&G will reduce tariffs to zero by 2025 to EU exports
(%) B7 A B5 GSP tax* B3 B3, 11%
12
B7, 19%
10
A, 12%
8
0 B5, 58%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam,
Note: A: Tariffs will be eliminated on the effective date of the agreement
B3/5/7: Tariffs will be eliminated in four/six/eight equal stages starting from the date of agreement.
GSP Tax: Generalized System of Preferences for developing countries (beneficiary countries) to enjoy tax
exemptions or reductions.
 The raw material production process requires
Raw material: Yarn: high investment capital for production systems
Natural fiber Natural yarn Fabric

and wastewater treatment systems
Synthetic fiber Synthetic yarn

 The tailoring process is labor-intensive and
requires lower capital investment
STK, ADS, FTM, SPB, PPH, HTG
Material
Brand Design supply Sewing Package Distribution
source
OEM/CMT: 65%
FOB: 25%
TCM, GIL, VGG, HTG, MNB
ODM: 9%
VGT, TNG, MSH, PPH, M10
OBM: 1%
Sources:VITAS, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Strengths and weaknesses of sourcing bases in 2023 of US Raw materials and labor costs account more than 70%
Cost of goods manufactured by factors, 2022
Raw materials Labour costs Depreciation expense
(%) Other cash expenses Other cash expenses
100
80
33 35
60 19 29 24
40
53 56 50 51 51
20
0
VGT TNG TCM MSH M10
Source:USFIA, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Company, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
*AGOA: African Growth and Opportunity Act
8M2023 updates of textile and
02 garments industry
In 8M2023, textile and garment export value decreased by
15.7% YoY to reach USD 26.4bn since slow consumption and
high inventory in main markets dragged textile and garment
orders tumbled.
T&G exports in 8M2023 decreased YoY compared to high base T&G export value to the US decreased by 25% YoY in 1H2023
2021 2022 2023 (USDbn) 2021 2022 2023
(USDbn)
2.1
5 1.8
1.9
4 1.7
1.5
3 1.3
1.3 1.5
2
1.1
1 0.9
0.7
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Vietnam Custom, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Vietnam Custom, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
China is the largest market for exporting fiber and yarn Fiber and yarn exports to China increased YoY in Q2/2023
(USDmn)
Fiber and yarn export 2021 2022 2023
350
market share, 2022
46.3% 300
35.1% China Korea

250
US Bangladesh 200
150
Other
100
50
4.5%
3.9% 10.2% 0
Fiber export volume might improve

(Tonnes) Volume (L) (USD/Tonnes)
250,000 Average volume yearly (L) 5,000
ASP (R)
200,000 4,000
150,000 3,000
100,000 2,000
50,000 1,000
- 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7
2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Vietnam Custom, VCOSA, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

NM decreased due to narrow GPM in 1H2023 1H23 revenue of top 10 T&G companies decreased YoY
Revenue (L) NPAT (L) Revenue-Garment Comp. (L) Revenue-Yarn Comp. (L)
(VNDbn) (%) (VNDbn) (%)
Gross margin (R) Net margin (R) NM-Garment Comp. (R) NM-Yarn Comp. (R)
20,000 16 18,000 20
14
15,000 12 13,000 15
10
10,000 8
8,000 10
6
5,000 4
2 3,000 5
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 -2,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 0
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
Textile and garments industry
03 outlook 2024
We expect the textile and garment industry in 2024
to recover 8.6% YoY from a low base as garment
consumption in main markets will improve.
US retail inventories stablize US apparel retail sales improved slightly YOY
(USDmn)
US retail inventory 21 US apparel retail sales change YoY
65,000
16
60,000 11
55,000 6
50,000 1
45,000 -4
40,000 -9
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
Source: FRED, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: FRED, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Import of raw cotton increased sharply from Q2/2023 Import of fiber and yarn maintain low in 8M2023
(Tonnes) (%) (Tonnes) Fiber and yarn material Growth YoY (%)
600,000 30 400,000 50
40
20 250,000
300,000 30
10
100,000 20
0
- 10
-10 (50,000) 0
(300,000) -20 -10

(200,000)
Cotton Growth YoY -30 -20
(350,000) -30
(600,000) -40
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3E
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3E
2020 2021 2022 2023
2020 2021 2022 2023
Textile industry IIP improves YoY in Q2/2023 Expect the T&G industry to grow 8.6% YoY in 2024
40 (USDbn)
Yarn IIP Textile IIP Export value (L) Growth YoY (R) (%)
30 50 20
20
15
10 25
10
0
5
-10 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F -
-20
(5)
-25
-30
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug (10)
2022 2023 -50 (15)

Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
04 Textile and Garment Stock Pitch
STK - Expanded capacity from the new Unitex 1 factory and new
orders moving from China
Valuation 24F
General information Stock price Ratio Performance
No. Ticker Sector Mkt. Cap ClP TP (*) Upside GPM ROA ROE Revenue Revenue chng. P/E EV/ EV/
(VNDbn) (VND) (VND) (%) (%) (%) (%) Q2.2023 Q2.2023 (x) Sales(x) EBITDA
(VND bn) (% YoY) (x)
1 VGT T&G 6,450 12,900 12,100 -6.2 4.9 2.9 8.2 3,889 -17.4 11.4 8.5
793
2 TCM T&G 3,892 47,500 48,400 1.9 13.3 5.8 9.4 715 -31.9 22.0 11.5
1,114
3 STK T&G 3,011 32,000 38,800 21.3 14.8 6.1 9.3 407 -23.1 22.5 9.9
1,883
4 MSH T&G 3,331 44,400 44,267 -0.3 12.9 8.2 18.0 1,542 6.7 11.2 6.0
636
5 TNG T&G 2,361 20,800 21,850 5.0 12.1 4.9 17.3 1,999 0.9 8.8 -
720
6 PPH T&G 1,964 26,300 - - 24.5 13.7 26.1 376 -16.9 4.4 9.0
1,611
7 VGG T&G 1,645 37,300 - - 9.8 3.4 7.5 2,270 -4.4 12.0 4.2
130
8 ADS T&G 806 13,800 - - 11.6 2.6 8.8 494 21.9 13.7 8.5
799
(*) Target price in next 12 months
Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg consensus, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Data as of Oct 6th,2023
Target price (12M) VND 38,800
Current price (06/10/2023) Investment thesis:
Return (%) 21.3%
2024 outlook: Low base and improving consumption drive revenue growth of 33.8% YoY in 2024
FY 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F

1,400 40,000 Revenue (VNDbn) 1,766 2,042 2,115 1,582 2,116
1,200 35,000 OP (VNDbn) 175 275 291 160 284
30,000
1,000 NPAT (VNDbn) 144 278 242 142 227
25,000 EPS (VND)
800 2,091 4,084 3,341 2,008 3,211
20,000 BPS (VND)
600 15,318 17,808 18,258 17,459 19,813
15,000
OPM 9.9 13.5 13.8 10.1 13.4
400 10,000
NPM 8.2 13.6 11.4 9.0 10.7
200 5,000
ROE (%) 8.5 14.1 11.4 4.6 6.0
0 0
P/E (x) 16.0 8.2 10.0 16.6 10.4
10/2022 01/2023 04/2023 07/2023
P/B (x) 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7
VN Index STK VN EQUITY
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 8.0 8.4 10.9 6.0
Thao Nguyen
☎ (84-28) 6299-8004
Logistics – Vibrant again
1. Global logistics market

A less exciting year
Find the balance in 2024
A warming trend in 2024
2. Vietnam’s logistics market
The short term challenges
The gloomy business picture in the first half of 2023
Vietnam’s export shows signs of improvement
The push from increasing service fees from January 1, 2024
3. Logistics stock pick
GMD & HAH - Demand recovery & freight rate on the rise again
01 Global logistics market
A less exciting year
Find the balance in 2024
A warming trend in 2024

70 20%
16.6% 67.2
67.7
65.5
15%
65
61.6 10%
60
5%
0.5%
55
0%
50
-5%
-5.2%
45 -8.2% -10%
% growth y.o.y Global container port throughput
Source: WTO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
16%
13.8%
12%
8.0%
8% 9.8% 6.7%
6.0% 5.9% 5.9%
5.0%
4.1%
3.5%
4%
5.0%
3.7%
2.0%
0% 1.6%
-4% -1.9% -1.7%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Supply growth (TEU) Demand growth (TEU)
Source: Bimco, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

USD/container
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0
9/2016
11/2016
1/2017
3/2017
5/2017
7/2017
9/2017
Source: Drewry, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

11/2017
1/2018
3/2018
5/2018
7/2018
9/2018
11/2018
Shanghai to Los Angeles

1/2019
3/2019
5/2019
7/2019
9/2019
11/2019
1/2020
3/2020
5/2020
7/2020
Shanghai to Rotterdam
9/2020
11/2020
1/2021
8,522
3/2021
5/2021
7/2021
14,507
9/2021
11/2021
1/2022
3/2022
5/2022
7/2022
9/2022
11/2022
8,553
1/2023
3/2023
5/2023
The average freight rate from 2016 - 2023
7/2023
2024F
-
3
7
%
83%
02 Vietnam’s logistics market
The short term challenges
The gloomy business picture in the first half of 2023
Vietnam’s export shows signs of improvement
The push from increasing service fees from January 1, 2024

30
24.0 24.4
81% 22.4 21.8 80%
20 18.1
15.9
11.5 50%
8.7
10 6.3
mn TEUs
14% 20%
12%
7%
0
-10%
-11% -8% -6% -9%
-10 -40%
-20 -70%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 6T/2023 8T 2023 2023F 2024F
Throughput Growth y.o.y

0
100
200
400
500
600
700
300
200
300
400
500
0
100
2021 2021
2022 2022
Jan
Jan
2023
344
2023
291
2021 2021
2022 2022
Feb
Feb
2023 2023
312
274
2021 2021
Source: VPA, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source: VPA, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
2022 2022
Mar
Mar
2023 2023
360
360
2021 2021
2022 2022
Apr
Apr
2023 2023
405
352
2021 2021
2022 2022
May
May
2023 2023
366
420
2021 2021
2022 2022
June
June
2023 2023
386
392
2021 2021
2022 2022
July
July
2023 285 2023

450
2021 2021
2022 2022
Aug
Aug
2023
419
2023
393
2021 2021
2022
Sep
2022
Sep
2021 2021
2022
Oct
2022
Oct
2021
2021
2022
Nov
2022
Nov
2021
2021
Dec
2022
Dec
2022
5 4.7
3.6 47% 3.6 60%
2.6 2.4
33% 40%
19% 10%
20%
VND trillion
6%
0
0%
-12%
-6% -20%
-24%
-40%
-5 -60%
6T/2019 6T/2020 6T/2021 6T/2022 6T/2023
Profit after tax y.o.y growth y.o.y growth of Vietnam's export turnover

400 371 25%
336 26%
22% Seafoods -25%
20%
300 265 281 19%
260
244 228 21%
215 15% Fibers -18%
13% 195
200 162 177 164
14%
10% 136 10% Wood and wooden products
9% 9% -24%
6%
100 5% 19%
Textiles, garments -15%
0% 0%
0 Footwear 26%
-18%
-5%
-100 Chemicals 18%
-26%
-8% -10%
-200 -12% -15% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0%
Import Export Export growth y.o.y Q2/2023 vs. Q1/2023 8M/2023 vs. 8M/2022
-5%
0%
5%
-15%
-10%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2018-06-01
2018-10-01
2019-02-01
2019-06-01
2019-10-01
2020-02-01
Source: FRED, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

2020-06-01
2020-10-01
2021-02-01
2021-06-01
2021-10-01
2022-02-01
2022-06-01
23.2%
2022-10-01
2023-02-01
2023-06-01
2023-10-01
5.3%
0%
-10%
10%
-20%
20%
30%
40%
3/1/2019
6/1/2019
9/1/2019
12/1/2019
3/1/2020
-15.8%
6/1/2020
9/1/2020
12/1/2020
3/1/2021
34.2%
6/1/2021
9/1/2021
12/1/2021
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics,Shinhan Securities Vietnam
3/1/2022
-11.1%
6/1/2022
9/1/2022
12/1/2022
3/1/2023
6/1/2023
4.6%
Container handling fees at port
Source: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), Port Authority of Thailand, Vietnam Maritime Administration, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Applicable from January 1, 2024

03 Logistics stock pick
GMD & HAH - Demand recovery & freight rate on the rise again
General Info Price Key financial ratio Business result Valuation 24F
No. Ticker Sector Mkt.Cap CP TP (**) Upside GPM (%) ROA ROE Revenue P/E EV/Sale EV/EBIT
Revenue
(VND (VND) (VND) (%) TTM TTM growth (x) (x) DA (x)
Q2.2023
bn) (%) (%) Q2.2023
(tỷ VND)
(% YoY)
1 GMD Port services 19,669 64,300 74,000 15.0 45.01 17.51 30.61 912.17 -6.72 17.0 2.0 9.2
2 HAH Port services 3,999 37,900 49,000 29.2 34.16 12.28 25.68 611.42 -34.20 5.3 1.1 1.7
3 VSC Port services 3,481 26,100 36,000 37.9 29.79 4.18 6.58 534.60 4.50 18.5 0.8 7.2
Warehousing
4 ILB 738 30,150 - - 36.58 5.93 19.66 138.43 4.38 - - -
services
Warehousing
5 TMS 7,279 46,000 - - 21.77 6.04 9.40 525.45 -21.85 - - -
services
6 VOS Inland transport 1,799 12,850 - - 16.62 9.09 15.90 1,042.57 51.05 - - -
7 VIP Inland transport 760 11,100 - - 32.36 24.82 28.18 134.05 -47.15 - - -
8 VTO Inland transport 732 9,170 - - 18.08 5.9 8.75 260.12 -3.14 - - -
(*) Target price (fair value) for the next 12 months

Data as of 06/10/2023
Restoring the growth momentum
Target price (12 months) 74,000 VND GMD is one of the leading logistic companies in Vietnam, having modern and large-scale ports system, being located at critical
economic positions. The main operating businesses: Port operation; logistic activities. GMD owns a total of 7 seaports, with an
Curren price (06/10/23) 64,300VND
annual capacity of up to 5 million TEUs and 5 million tons of bulk cargo.
Return (%) 15.0%
Investment thesis & Catalyst
VN-INDEX 1,128
- The economy is tending to recover. We expect import and export activities to be positive in the second half of 2023 when export
HNX-INDEX 230 orders recover as well as consumer demand from major export markets of Việt Nam such as the US, EU, and China return.
Market Cap (bn VND) 19,669
306
- Core profit expected to improve. In the first 7 months of 2023, the Gemalink port’s throughput is estimated to reach 782
Outstanding shares (mn)
thousand TEUs (-15% y.o.y), the Hai Phong cluster’s throughput is estimated to reach 620 thousand TEUs (+18% y.o.y). In 2024,
Free-Floating (mn) 294
we expect Gemalink port’s throughput to grow again after a difficult economic year and phase 2 of Nam Dinh Vu port will
52-Wk High/Low (VND) 68,000/36,400
optimize its capacity.
90-day avg. trading volume (mn) 1.28
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 88 - The approved draft service fee increase from January 1, 2024 will support GMD's profits. The Seaport and Transport Association
9.9
has proposed a 10% increase in fees in the Cai Mep - Thi Vai port cluster area, Hai Phong and Lach Huyen to approach the
SSJ Consulting VN
Shareholders(%) region's average.
Outlook for 2024
- We forecast that GMD's core profit will grow in 2024 thanks to (1) service fees increasing from 5% - 8%, while the volume of
Absolute (%) 21.5 25.0 32.7 goods through the port will increase % due to phase 2 of Nam Port. Dinh Vu will run at maximum capacity and Gemalink output
Relative to will grow again.
21.3 19.6 27.6
VNIndex(%)
Downside risks: (1) World economic risk and (2) Slow down in demand.
1,400 70,000
1,200 60,000 Year to Dec 2020 2021 2022 2023F (*) 2024F
1,000 50,000 Core revenue (VND bn) 2,606 3,206 3,916 3,358 3,852
OP (VND bn) 471 693 1,104 881 1,081
800 40,000
Core NP (VND bn) 440 721 1,157 1,132 1,458
600 30,000
EPS (VND) 1,132 1,869 3,054 2,976 3,713
400 20,000
BPS (VND) 20,472 21,920 24,030 28,813 31,627
200 10,000 OPM 18.1% 21.6% 28.2% 26.2% 28.1%
0 0 NPM 14.2% 19.1% 25.4% 28.9% 31.4%
ROE (%) 6.3% 10.0% 15.0% 12.4% 13.3%
P/E (x) 55.6 33.7 20.6 21.2 17.0
P/B (x) 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.0
VN Index GMD VN EQUITY EV/EBITDA (x) 20.4 16.2 11.2 11.2 9.2
(*) We exclude profits from divestment of Nam Hai Dinh Vu port in 2023.
A brighter picture
Target price (12 months) 49,000VND Hai An Transport and Handling Joint Stock Company (HAH) is one of the leading shipping enterprises in Vietnam. Hai An is one of
the few companies with a complete value chain in the shipping industry. Hai An provides a full range of shipping services including
Curren price (06/10/23) 37,900 VND freight services (for North-South routes and international maritime routes), shipping agency, port operation services through Hai An
Return (%) 29.2% port (such as receiving ships, loading, and unloading goods), warehousing services (withdrawing and storing goods) and logistics
services. The complete value chain helps Hai An operate efficiently and optimize costs.
VN-INDEX 1,128
HNX-INDEX 230 Investment thesis & Catalyst
Market Cap (bn VND) 3,999
- The economy is tending to recover. We expect import and export activities to be positive in the second half of 2023 when export
Outstanding shares (mn) 106 orders recover as well as consumer demand from major export markets of Vietnam such as the US, EU, and China return.
Free-Floating (mn) 14
40,650/14,933
- Business operations are expected to improve from 2024. We forecast that freight rates may recover and increase by about 15% in
52-Wk High/Low (VND)
2.87
2024 due to (1) economic recovery and (2) increased freight rate.
90-day avg. trading volume (mn)
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 96 - Fleet expansion helps increase capacity: We expect HAH to receive 4 new container ships of 1,800 TEU, increasing the total fleet
Hai Ha Investment and
14.53 capacity to more than 23,000 TEU by the end of 2024 (+23% y.o.y).
Shareholders(%) Transport JSC
Sao A D.C Investment JSC 10.58
Outlook for 2024
Performance 3M 6M 12M - We forecast that HAH's core profit will grow in 2024 thanks to (1) freight rates increasing by 10% - 15%, while cargo output will
increase by 5% - 7% thanks to (1) an increase in ship capacity and (2) economic recovery.
Absolute (%) 24.0 57.9 45.5
Relative to Downside risks: (1) World economic risk and (2) Slow down in demand.
23.8 52.5 40.5
VNIndex(%)
pts VND Year to Dec 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F

1,400 50,000
Revenue (VND bn) 1,192 1,955 3,206 2,750 2,849
OP (VND bn) 171 629 1,308 852 1,036
1,200
40,000 NP (VND bn) 147 551 1,041 585 727
1,000
EPS (VND) 2,835 9,133 11,699 5,222 9,302
800 30,000
BPS (VND) 21,908 31,809 32,852 32,852 43,187
600 20,000 OPM 14.4% 32.2% 40.8% 31.0% 36.3%
400 NPM 12.3% 28.2% 32.5% 21.3% 25.5%
10,000
200 ROE (%) 11.0% 28.9% 36.1% 20.3% 19.7%
0 0 P/E (x) 17.5 5.4 4.2 9.5 5.3
09/2022 12/2022 03/2023 06/2023 P/B (x) 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1
VN Index HAH VN EQUITY EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 2.9 1.4 2.0 1.7
Phuc Nguyen
☎ (84-28) 6299-8025
Retail – The rise of modern trade model
1. Retail Sector Overview
Retail is the business of selling consumer goods or
providing services to customers through multiple
distribution channels. Retailing contributes nearly 50%
to the country's GDP.
2. The Vietnam Retail Market
Accumulated in 8M2023, revenue from retail goods and
services reached VND 4,044 trillion (+10% YoY). The
recovery momentum remains after the COVID-19 period.
3. Outlook of Retail sector
Retail growth is expected to reach 12-14% YoY in the
coming years thanks to (1) the economic recovery, (2)
people's income improvement, and (3) potential growth
of new retail industries.
4. Retail Stock Pick
FRT & MWG – Prospects from new segments
Retail Sector Overview
01 Retail is the business of selling consumer goods or providing
services to customers through multiple distribution channels.
Retail is one of Vietnam's critical sectors; with a market size of

nearly USD 200 billion in 2022, contributing nearly 50% to the
country's GDP.
Sector Overview
Softline goods Hardline goods Grocery and convenience

(e.g., apparel, bedding, bags, carpets, (e.g., housewares, furniture, tools, (e.g., fresh produces, meat, staple
medicines, costumes, etc.) electronics, jewelry, sporting goods, etc.) food, non-food household goods, etc.)
Accommodation services Food and beverage Tourism and traveling

(providing ST lodging & other hospitality services (F&B businesses (providing types of tourism services
e.g., hotels, campsites, apartments for rent, private e.g., restaurants, lounges, e.g., rural, mountain, urban, sports
accommodation facilities, etc.) coffee shops, bars, etc.) tourism, etc.)
• The retail sector includes businesses of selling consumer goods or providing services to customers through multiple channels of
distribution to earn a profit; across a wide range of industries, such as F&B, motor vehicles, apparel, and electronics.
• Some kinds of goods and services are provided by retailers: Soft-line, hardline (ICT products), grocery and convenience (consumer goods),
accommodation and tourism services, F&B, and other special goods.
• Some retailing distribution channels: traditional/modern outlets (shops & stores), catalog retail, and e-tailor (online sales).
General overview of the retail purchasing process
General steps involved for order fulfillment in

a typical retail supply chain:
1. Wholesalers and distributors determine
the quantity and type of goods and then
import them.
2. Contact the supplier/manufacturer and
place orders.
3. The supplier fulfills the order based on
the purchasing organization's requirements.
4. The logistics unit transports the product
to the purchasing unit's warehouse, then
continues delivering to retailers or directly to
other customer groups.
 The processes all involve the use of many

laborers to operate and monitor each
stage in the retail supply chain.
 To ensure operational progress, each
trading partner in charge must
continuously track and update the latest
status of the goods transportation
process.
=> A tighter retail network enables trading
partners to connect and coordinate more
effectively in a close-knit supply chain.
Update the world retail sector
Total retail sales worldwide from 2020-2026 (USD trillion)
• While physical or in-store retail is the
Total retail sales worldwide Sales growth
45 12% dominant channel in this market, other forms
9 of non-store retailing are becoming
35
31.27
32.80 9% increasingly popular worldwide.
30.03
28.64
26.03
27.32 • The growth of the retail industry contributes
25 23.72 6%
5.0%
greatly to the overall recovery of the economy
4.8% 4.9% 4.9%
4.1%
after the COVID-19 pandemic.
15 3%
• In 2022, the global retail market revenue was
estimated to reach USD 27.3 trillion (+5%
5 0%
YoY). This number is forecast to reach about
USD 32.8 trillion by 2026, corresponding to a
(5) -2.9% -3%
CAGR of 4.6%/year over the 2023-2026
2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F
Source:eMarketer, Statista, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

period.
• Retail is one of Vietnam's critical industries;

the market size reached nearly USD 200
billion in 2022; expected to reach USD 350
billion by 2025 - contributing ~59% of
Vietnam's GDP.
Distribution channels Retail market in
Familiar distributing, selling Vietnam Emerging channels
points channels in recent years
Physical Channel Virtual Multi-channels

(Single channel) Channel (Omni channel)
Retail Store Catalog TV Home

E - commerce
& Wet market Station shopping
HTV Co.op, VTV

MWG, FRT, PNJ, VRE, MSN, VIC, PNJ, Hyundai, HTVC
Lotte Mart, Saigon Co.op FRT, MWG Shopping, etc.
• Retail transactions take place through many different distribution channels, across many different industries and products.
• The in-store retail channel is the most popular channel in today's market. Other forms of non-store retail are also becoming more
common. Specifically, online retail and e-commerce channels are increasingly popular; deeply penetrating to the retail sector in many
global markets.
• Many retailers apply the multi-channel sales model to integrate and optimize sales capabilities from traditional and online channels.
Typical key players in Vietnam retail market
MANUFACTURER WHOLESALERS
DIRECT SUPPLY
RETAILERS
SEMI-RETAILERS
END
CONSUMERS
Average cost structure of selling price in retail sector
50% 20% 30%
Domestically Cost of Doing Cost of Doing

Imported
manufactured Business (Opex) Business (Opex)
Shipping Net profit Net profit

Freight
tariffs freight margin (NPAT) margin (NPAT)
WHOLESALERS’ RETAILERS’ FINAL SELLING

COST OF GOODS
GROSS MARGIN GROSS MARGIN PRICE
DISTRIBUTORS’ MARGIN
Source: RBA, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Retailing goods through e-commerce channels
• E-commerce is the activity of buying and selling products and providing services on electronic media systems such as the Internet, computer networks.
• Online retail can exist in a model that integrates physical stores or only focuses on online stores (websites, e-commerce platforms).
• In Vietnam, activities related to e-commerce include two groups: E-commerce platforms and e-commerce companies.
Electronic commerce
(e-commerce)
E-commerce E-commerce
platform company
Diversity of Transportation Jewelry, Electronic and Clothing,

goods service cosmetics mobile goods (ICT) costumes
Food and beverage Pharmacy Mother and

delivery service chain baby chain
Websites, phone applications that help

Companies that trade goods and provide services
connect buyers and sellers; allow
with their own website or online application to
organizations and individuals (not platform
sell goods and provide services through online
owners) to conduct sales or provide services
channels (in addition to traditional channels).
on that platform.
02 The Vietnam Retail Market
Accumulated in 8M2023, revenue from retail goods and services
reached VND 4,044 trillion (+10% YoY). The recovery momentum
remains after the COVID-19 period.
Vietnam retail market showing signs of recovery after COVID-19
Total retail sales of goods and services in Vietnam (VND trillion) Contribution of retailing sales in 2022
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services
Growth YoY 0.4%
10,000 30% Retail goods
10.4%
25%
8,000
+10% 20% 10.0% Accommodation, F&B
6,000 YoY 15% services
5,594 10%
5,045
Tourism and travelling
4,000 4,940
4,396 4,613 5% services
3,934 4,044
3,527 0% 79.2%
2,000 Other services
-5%
0 -10%
Source:GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• In 2022, retail recovered strongly after the impact of COVID-19 (+21.3% YoY); CAGR reaching 8.0% over period 2016-2022.
• Updated 8M2023, total revenue of retail goods and services reached VND 4,044 trillion (+10% YoY). In 2023, the recovery momentum still
maintains but tends to slow down due to the fluctuation of economic situation.
• The retailing activities in Vietnam include 4 main groups: (i) Retail goods; (ii) Accommodation and F&B services; (iii) Tourism and traveling;
(iv) Other services. Before and after the Covid epidemic year (2021), revenue of the retail goods group grew steadily, showing the
sustainability and growth potential of the Vietnamese retail industry. Accommodation, F&B, and tourism groups also showed recovery and
growth to pre-Covid levels.
Retailing goods and services in Vietnam
Revenue of retail market by industries (VND trillion) 8TM2023 revenue of retail goods (VND trillion)
Retail goods Accommodation, F&B services Retail goods Total retailing sales
6,000 Tourism and travelling services Other services 5,000
4,044
5,000 4,429 4,000 3,675
3,992 3,221 3,218
3,751 3,812 3,056 3,176
4,000 2,920
3,306 3,176 3,000
2,937 2,450 2,554 2,510
3,000
2,000
2,000
587 556 1,000

1,000 495 466 539 509 505 530 559 584 436410
377 417
36 41 46 18 7 23 22
0 0
8T2019 8T2020 8T2021 8T2022 8T2023
• In 8M2023, retail revenue of goods slightly went up, reaching VND 3,175.5 trillion (+8.8% YoY), accounting for 78.5% of total retail
goods and service revenue (8T2022: 79.4%). Contribution from retail goods and service industries improved, reaching ~VND 868.5
trillion (+15% YoY); accounting for 21.5% of total revenue (8M2022: 20.6%).
• We estimate Vietnam's total revenue of retail goods and services in 2023 to reach VND 6,188 trillion (+9.1% YoY); of which revenue from
retail goods will contribute about 78.2%, estimated at VND 4,841 trillion (+8.2% YoY).
Monthly revenue growth of Vietnam retailing market (% YoY)
50 43.6
40.9
37.4
30 22.0 21.0 21.0

Social distancing 16.0
13.5 11.813.0 12.4 13.3
8.8 9.6 12.212.0 8.6 9.7 9.4 10.5 7.3
6.0 7.9 5.3 6.8 7.0 6.5 6.4 7.5
10 0.3
-10
-30
• After a period when the economy was heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, timely support from the Government (incentive
loans, credit extension, public investment, VAT reduction, etc.) helped the industry gradually recover from Q4.2021 (retail revenue in
Q4.21 +38.4% QoQ).
• The growth rate of the retail sector shows positive signs in 2022 and remains stable in 2023. Retail goods still account for a large
proportion of the total retail and service market.
• Sales of retail goods in 8M2023 increased by 7.5% YoY, improving compared to the previous 2 months. The August 2023 figures marked
the 18th consecutive month having positive YoY growth as consumption remained high after the impact of the pandemic.
• However, growth gradually cooled down in Q2 and Q3.2023 (reaching the lowest growth rate since March 2022) due to the fluctuating
economic situation, causing revenue growth from this segment to slow down. People tend to prioritize spending on essential items.
Contribution of each retail channels in Vietnam (%) Growth rate of each retail channels YoY (%)
5 3 4 5 6 6
7 7 7 58 48
8 7 7 24
Others 21 16 22
11 13 12 11 11 11
Online 14
11 10 11 7 1
11 12 11 -8 -8 -2
6 6 6 6 6 Supermarket + Hypermarket
6
6 7 7 7 6
7 Mini store 24 20 21 22 27
-20
Speciality store
30 21 29
Wet market -9 -12 -14
54 54 53 52 51 53
97
Grocery store -26 -17 -12 29 6
12 12
5 4 3
-3
Q4/21 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23
Other selling channels including hand-carried goods, manufacturer's store, etc Q4/21 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• Large retailers in Vietnam are divided into groups: (1) Hypermarkets/distribution centers; (2) Shopping centers; (3) Supermarkets; (4) Mini
supermarkets/specialized stores; (5) Electronics supermarkets; (6) Online retail. The trend of food and FMCG shopping shifting from
traditional market channels to modern retail channels is more clearly.
• According to Euromonitor, the market share of traditional food retail and FMCG in 2022 accounted for 88.5%. The total number of
modern retail points (supermarkets, convenience stores, minimarts, etc.) is more than 7,000 points of sale, only equaling 1% of the
traditional ones (stores, individual business households, markets, street vendors, etc.).
• According to Euromonitor, Vietnam's grocery store retail market size is more than USD 50 billion, with a growth rate of about 10%/year.
The market is highly fragmented since 90% market share includes more than 9,000 traditional markets and 2.2 million grocery stores. This
is a potential market, an opportunity for MWG and BHX if the problem of cost optimization, efficient operation besides chain expansion
are solved.
Monthly revenue growth of Vietnam retail market by industry (% YoY) • After a period of social distancing, entertainment, accommodation, and
300 dining activities quickly recovered. Strong tourism demand has supported
Accommodation, F&B services
this recovery, despite inflation and rising costs of living in most countries.
200 • International tourism: Vietnam welcomed about 7.8 million international
Social distancing
visitors (+540% YoY) in 8M2023, recovering 92.3% of 2019 international
100
visitor level; completing 98% of the 2023 target.
0 • Specifically, Korea is the highest tourist group to Vietnam, reaching 2.27
million visitors (+515% YoY; accounting for nearly 1/3 of visitors to Vietnam).
-100
• The number of international visitors to HCMC and Hanoi respectively
7,000
Tourism and traveling services reached ~2.71 million (+92.3% YoY) and ~2.79 million (+460% YoY)
5,000 international visitors, accounting for more than 70% of total international
visitors to Vietnam in 8M2023.
3,000
• Estimated 8M2023 total tourism revenue (domestic and international
Social distancing
1,000
visitors) in HCMC and Hanoi reach VND 106 trillion (+42.3%) and VND 61.6
-1,000 trillion (+63.1% YoY), respectively.

• Domestic tourism: Reach about 86 million tourists in 8M2023. The heat of
domestic tourism demand still shows no signs of slowing down.
Source: GSO, Vietnam National Tourism Administration, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• Vietnam's tourism industry is paying more attention to new tourism trends in
the world, expecting strong growth in both international and domestic
visitors in the near future.
Outlook of Retail sector
03 Retail industry revenue growth is expected to reach 12-14% YoY
in the coming years.
Key driving elements for the retail industry:
+ The economy recovers and stabilizes;
+ People's income improves with increasing urbanization rate;
+ Growth potential of new retail industries.
Retail Market Trends
MULTI-CHANNELS
VARIETY OF RETAIL CONTINUOUS
(OMNI CHANNEL)
BRANDS IMPROVEMENT AND
The explosive growth of UPGRADE
In addition to the market online retail and e-
penetration and expansion commerce will not only The competition between
of international brands, reduce demand in domestic and international
domestic ones also grow traditional retail channels brands, along with the
significantly and expand but can also complement explosion of online retail
throughout the market. and promote mutual sales
Entertainment shopping, activities.
digital content creation Market selling players will
The average sales volume
along product marketing continuously improve
related to entertainment
(Shoppertainment) continue products and upgrade sales
and streaming platforms
to be the main trends in the space to attract more
from content creators will
coming years. customers.
increase sharply.
Impact of the economy on Vietnam's retail sector
Growth of Vietnam GDP and Revenue of retail goods (% YoY) Vietnam GDP per capita growth and inflation rate
GDP Growth GDP per capita growth

20% Revenue growth of retail goods Inflation rate (CPI)
15%
17.3%
15% 13.5% 14.0% 12% 10.8%

12.6% 12.8% 9.2%
8.4% 8.8%
9.7% 9%
10% 8.4% 6.9% 6.7%
8.2% 6.4%
8.0%
6.8% 7.1% 7.0% 6.4% 6.4% 6.7% 6% 4.7%
6.2%
5.0%
5% 2.7%
2.6% 3%
3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2%
2.9% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0%
1.8%
0% 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
-5% -4.5%
Source: World Bank, GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: World Bank, GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• Based on historical data, the revenue growth of retail goods is often 2 times higher than that of Vietnam’s GDP. Hence, the positive
expectation of GDP growth from 2024 may boost the retail industry growth to reach at 12-14% YoY in the upcoming years.
• Furthermore, the improvement in per capita income growth and the inflation rate maintained at a stable level by the Government (~3%) will
be a catalyst to help the retail sector and the Vietnamese economy continue to grow sustainablly after the recovery period.
Vietnam’s GDP growth rate estimates • After the 2022’s 8% growth (the highest level
2023 2024 since 1997), Vietnam becomes the fastest
Initial target: 6.5%
The Government 6-6.5% growing economy in Southeast Asia.
(9M2023: 4.24%)
Shinhan Securities Vietnam 5% 6% • The 9M2023 GDP growth was at 4.24%
World Bank (WB) 4.7% 5.5% (9M2022: 8.85%). To complete the initial target
of 6.5%, Vietnam needs to achieve a tough
International Monetary Fund (IMF) 4.7% 5.8%
record of ~13% growth in the last 3 months.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) 5.8% 6.0%
• The main reason is that Vietnam faces many
Moody’s 5.2% 6.4%
difficulties from external and domestic factors
OECD 4.9% 5.9% affecting the economy.
Fitch Ratings 5.7% 6.5% • Income improved, urbanization rate increased,
HSBC Global Research 5.0% 6.3% and timely support policies from the
Standard Chartered Bank 5.4% 6.7% Government. The ICT industry is expected to
Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam summarized
recover after the period of price wars among
Recent change of Vietnam’s sovereign credit rating retailers. In addition, prospects from new retail
Nearest rating score Revised date industries are also the driving elements for
retailing activities in the near future.
Moody’s Ba2 (stable outlook) July 13th, 2023
• In terms of the country outlook, many financial
S&P Global Ratings BB+ (stable outlook) June 15th, 2023
institutions evaluate that Vietnam still has a
Fitch Ratings BB (positive outlook) June 13th, 2023 stable economy, forecasting to achieve a 5%
Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam summarized GDP growth in 2023 and 6% in 2024.
Annual Vietnam GDP per capita (USD) Vietnam population demographics over years (mil. people)
GDP per capita Total population
5,000 20% 120 Proportion of urban population 50%
Growth (YoY)
4,110 96.5 97.3 98.5 99.5
92.7 93.7 94.7
4,000 3,756 40%
3,491 3,586 90
3,267 15%
2,992 37.7% 37.1% 37.3%
3,000 2,761 34.6% 35.1% 35.7% 34.3% 30%
9.2% 9.4%
8.4% 10% 60
2,000 6.4% 6.9% 20%
4.7%
2.7% 5% 30
1,000 10%
0 0% 0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
• The electronics retail industry tends to be saturated and has grown slowly in recent years. However, the cycle of replacing ICT equipment
(since the social distancing period in 2020-2021 - making many individuals study and work from home) is expected to return at the end of
2023 and be quicker in 2024.
• Price competition among retailers (MWG, FRT) is predicted to only affect the short-term towards the mid-range product segment and below,
not having much impact on customer groups that favor the near high-end, high-end products (Apple, Samsung).
• During the period 2016 - 2020, the average income per capita grew by more than 7%/year, decreased to 4.7% in 2021 due to the impact of
the COVID-19 epidemic, and then rebounded to 9.4% in 2022. The urbanization rate is forecast to increase in the coming years, and
improved income will be a catalyst to increase the value of the retail market in Vietnam, especially the mid to high-end segments - which
generate higher profit margins than mid-range products (priced under VND 15 million/product).
Projected average household income in Vietnam (thousand)
• According to BMI, Vietnam's pharma market in 2022 reached ~USD 6
<= 25,000 USD 25,000 USD - 55,000 USD
billion (+10% YoY) and is forecast to touch USD 8 billion in 2025
55,000 USD - 100,000 USD >= 100,000 USD
35,000 thanks to the population growth, young structure (~50% in the age
30,000
18-50), and rapid urbanization. IQVIA Organization assesses Vietnam
25,000
to be a pharmaceutical emerging market.
20,000
• Thanks to the improvement of income level, besides drug treatments,
15,000
10,000 people would care more about healthcare products, leading to extra
5,000 spending on pharmaceutical products.
- • In 2023, Vietnam's population is projected to exceed 100 million, of
2021 2025F 2030F 2035F 2040F
which the elderly dependents (over 60 years old) making up 13%.
Source: Euromonitor, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Increased life expectancy (73.6 years old in 2022) leads to an
Vietnam population pyramid in 2022 (million people) increasing aging rate, boosting demand for functional foods and
spending on health care services.
Female Male
80+ • The Vietnamese pharmacy market is highly fragmented. With a
70 - 74 network of about 60,000 points of sale (mainly small traditional
60 - 64
pharmacies), the modern pharma retail chains (Long Chau, An Khang,
50 - 54
40 - 44 Pharmacity, Phano, etc.) started to scale up but still constitute a small
30 - 34
slice of the entire cake (accounting for only 4-5%).
20 - 24
10 - 14 • Therefore, with stable service quality and diversified products, it is
0-4 expected that the pharmaceutical retail market still has room to grow.
6 4 2 0 2 4 6
It is forecast the modern drugstore chains in Vietnam would account
for 15-16% of the pharmaceutical retail market share by 2025.
The world e-commerce market
Revenue of In-store retail and E-commerce channel (USD trillion) E-commerce retail market share compared to total global retail revenue
Physical store E-commerce

35 30%
30 23.0% 24.0%
9.4 25% 21.9%
25 7.4 8.5 19.7% 20.8%
5.8 6.5 20% 17.8% 18.8%
5.1
20
13.8%
15% 12.2%
15 10.4%
23.4 10% 8.6%
10 20.7 21.5 22.0 7.4%
19.1 20.0
5 5%
0 0%
2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F
Source: Digital Commerce 360, eMarketer, Statista, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: eMarketer, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• Besides traditional retailing forms, retail groups through e-commerce channels are increasingly popular thanks to the convenience and
connection between sellers and many customers.
• After the COVID period, Vietnamese people have formed many new habits such as working, studying at home, ordering food online,
shopping online, etc. The Government has encouraged the use of non-cash payments since 2020, helping Vietnam's leading e-wallets and e-
commerce platforms to benefit strongly from changes in shopping and payment habits and the increase in users over the years.
• E-commerce has become a potential retail channel and been applied by many retailers for integrating into their Omni-channel sales strategy.
• In 2022, the estimated global e-commerce revenue reached USD 5.8 trillion (+13.7% YoY). Of which more than 70% of revenue transactions
were made via smartphones.
Vietnam e-commerce market
Vietnam E-commerce revenue (USD billion) Level of Internet access and use in Vietnam (Q1.2023)
30 50%
Revenue Growth rate (YoY) % Internet Changes in Daily time % Internet users
Number of spent using the
25 users over total number of via mobile
40% Internet Users Internet
population users (YoY) phone devices
20.1
20 30% +24.9%
16.4 30%
24% 13.7 YoY
15
11.8
10.1 10.3 20%
10 8.1 23%
20%
18%
16% 10%
5 ~78 mil ~80% +6 mil ~6.5 hours ~87%
users people
0 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 1H2023
Vietnam's e-commerce revenue includes revenue from all goods and services sold through e-commerce channels
(excluding transactions related to the fields of finance, banking, credit, insurance, and online games).
Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: We Are Social - Vietnam Digital Report 2023, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• E-commerce activities in Vietnam continue to grow and become an important distribution channel. According to Vietnam E-commerce White
Paper 2022, up to 74.8% of Internet users participate in online shopping. The most commonly purchased items online instead of offline are
clothes, shoes, cosmetics (69%), appliances, household appliances (64%), technology and electronics (51%).
• In 6M2023, the retail e-commerce market in Vietnam reached USD 10.3 billion (+24.9% YoY), accounting for 7.7% of total retail sales. At an
average growth of ~20%/year, Vietnam is ranked second regarding the number of consumers shopping online in the Southeast Asia region;
was ranked among the top 5 global countries having the highest e-commerce growth rate by eMarketer. Google estimates Vietnam's e-
commerce market will continue to boom in the coming years, expected to reach USD 39 billion by 2025, ranking second after Indonesia.
SWOT Analysis – Vietnam Consumer & Retail Market
STRENGTHS (S)
• A large, young, and dynamic population brings high growth opportunities for retailers.
• The open retail market, ideal investment, and business environment help attract foreign retailers; Vietnam is
one of the fastest-growing consumer markets in emerging Asia.
• The retail market in Vietnam (shopping malls, supermarkets, convenience stores) is well-invested and located in
big cities, reflecting the quality of infrastructure and logistics.
WEAKNESSES (W)
• Consumers care about price and tend to prefer cheap, economical products; essential goods will usually be
given priority. The majority of the population falls into the low-income segment, with less spending on luxury
and non-essential items.
• The population group living in rural areas is large, leading to reduced opportunities to access modern retail
store models due to limited infrastructure.
• High rental costs for retail activities in urban centers. According to market research by Cushman & Wakefield
Vietnam, the average rental price at commercial centers for retail purposes in Ho Chi Minh City (Q2.2023) is
about 51.1 USD/m2/month (+1.2% QoQ; +5.9% YoY).
SWOT Analysis – Vietnam Consumer & Retail Market
OPPORTUNITIES (O)
• The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increasing demand for e-commerce services, creating a habit of
shopping online more frequent.
• The increasing rate of smartphone and Internet users helps the e-commerce market (which has high
competition among large e-commerce corporations) to progressively develop and prevail in Vietnam.
• The signing of Vietnam with the Free Trade Agreement (CPTPP) greatly promotes the import of more consumer
goods.
• The improvement of household income and the growth of middle class will boost disposable income levels,
increasing opportunities for retailers.
• Consumers tend to favor Western-style shopping, entertainment, and shopping center models. Investment in
infrastructure will attract more domestic and international retailers.
• Low labor costs push manufacturers to move factories from China to Vietnam.
THREATS (T)
• The retailing of some high-value items is tending to be saturated.
• Corruption and complicated procedures are still barriers for businesses who want to penetrate and join the
game.
• The tendency of low-priced goods preference with many promotions may lead to a drop in sales for luxury
foreign retail items.
• Despite the enhancement of disposable income, it is still low compared to other countries in the region, and
the instability of macroeconomic factors leads to reductions in spending on non-essential items.
Risks
Risk of inflation Risk of interest Risk of fierce Risk from weak

affecting selling price rate fluctuation competition retail consumption
- Economic instability causes - Many retail businesses have - The retail sector has the - Negative impacts from
inflation to remain high, high short-term debt to participation of many macroeconomic fluctuations,
affecting the input costs of finance its import of players, from conventional interest rates, inflation, etc.
businesses and increasing inventory. to modern retail chains. directly affect people's
the selling price of goods. - Economic instability affects - Price wars between income and employment,
Households have to the Government's monetary retailers continuously take reducing consumer demand
prioritize and increase their policy decisions, making place to compete and gain towards the retail sector.
spending allocation on interest costs unstable, market share. - Vietnamese consumption
essentials. influencing business will be strongly affected in
- Business results of non-
- Demand for non-essential expansion plans of retail essential retailers (ICT 1H2023 due to the trend of
items will also be companies. goods, fashion, tightening spending.
significantly reduced. automobiles, etc.) will be - Demand is expected to
severely affected in 2023. gradually recover from
Q3.2023.
04 Retail Stock Pick
FRT & MWG - Prospects from new segments
Valuation
General information Share price Key financial (**)
(24F)
Mkt. Cap. CP TP* Upside 1M YTD NPAT Dividend Debt to ROA ROE P/B P/E
No. Ticker Retail sector
(VND bn) (VND) (VND) (%) (%) (%) margin (%) yield (%) Equity (%) (%) (x) (x)
1 MWG ICT 70,642 48,300 53,650 11.1 -12.2 13.7 1.3 0.0 0.9 2.7 6.6 2.9 18.7
2 FRT ICT, pharmacy 13,284 97,500 107,250 10.0 15.0 63.7 -0.1 0.7 2.4 -0.3 -1.6 3.8 11.3
3 DGW ICT distribution 9,690 57,000 57,820 1.4 -3.2 53.6 2.7 1.2 0.8 7.9 20.8 2.9 16.1
4 PET ICT distribution 2,764 25,900 32,720 26.3 -12.2 66.8 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.2 5.7 2.4 11.0
5 PNJ Jewelry 25,584 78,000 93,450 19.8 -3.8 -11.9 5.6 2.2 0.2 13.9 20.5 2.6 13.0
6 HAX Automobiles 1,355 14,500 18,550 27.9 -10.8 14.2 2.1 2.6 0.3 5.3 10.7 1.1 11.6
* Target price (fair value) for the next 12 months by Bloomberg consensus (except for FRT, MWG)
** Data for 12 months up to Q2/2023
Source: SSV Research, Bloomberg - Data as of October 6t
h, 2023
Key growth driver from Long Chau Pharmacy
Investment points
TARGET PRICE (12 months) VND 107,250 FPT Digital Retail JSC (FRT Retail, HoSE: FRT) is one of the leading mobile digital products retailers in Vietnam, with
revenue of over USD 1.2 billion in 2022. FRT owns two F. Shop retail chains, equivalent to over 1,000 stores retailing
consumer electronics (ICT). The pharma retail segment of FRT - Long Chau pharmacy chain, quickly becoming a familiar
Return (%) 11.1% brand, leading the market with more than 1,200 drugstores spread across the country. Long Chau is the growth driver of
VNINDEX 1,129 FRT when the consumption demand for non-essential goods like ICT products falls.
P/E 1Y Forward(x) 11.1
Update business result: FRT's consolidated 6M2023 revenue reached VND 1 4,924 bn (+6.6% YoY), completing 44% of
Market Cap. (bn VND) 13,284
the entire year plan. However, its promotional campaigns to stimulate the consumption of ICT demand caused SG&A
136
Outstanding Shares (mn) costs to be upward by 23.1% YoY, critically affecting FRT's profit. After 6M2023, FRT recorded a net loss of VND 213 bn.
Free Floating Shares (mn) 67
Pharmaceutical retail segment: Long Chau's competitors slowed down their expansion (Pharmacity: closing inefficient
52-WkHigh/Low (VND) 99,000/48,435
stores and being under internal restructuring; An Khang: MWG has ceased the pharma chain expansion and been only
3M Avg. Trading Vol.(triệu CP) 1.17
paying attention to the growth of Bach Hoa Xanh chain). In Q2, FRT opened 187 new Long Chau pharmacies (Q1: +119
3M Avg. T/O (tỷ VND) 94
new pharmacies); recording a total of 1,243 pharmacies, continuing to gain market share. FRT targets to reach 1,400-
Foreign ownership(%) 49
1,500 Long Chau pharmacies by the end of 2023.
FPT Corporation 46.54
In 2024, we forecast that NPAT will be revived (+257% YoY) thanks to the recovery of FPT Shop, along with the
Major shareholders (%)
Dragon Capital Fund 9.01 consistently improving profits of Long Chau pharmacy chain (VND 197 bn; +55% YoY).
Performance 3M 6M 12M Risks: (1) High leverage exposure; (2) Competitive risk; (3) Risk from weak retail consumption; (4) Risk from impairment of
23.7 66.4 38.1
inventory.
Absolute(%)
FY 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Relative to VN-Index(%) 20.3 58.4 36.7
Revenue (bn VND) 14,661 22,495 30,166 34,689 48,369
1,600 OP (bn VND) 14 546 474 400 1,450
100,000
1,400 NP (bn VND) 10 444 398 326 1,165
1,200 80,000 EPS (VND) 154 3,745 3,295 2,299 7,310
1,000 BPS (VND) 7,809 9,736 10,696 16,909 21,774
60,000
800 OPM (%) 0.1 2.4 1.6 1.2 3.0
600 40,000 NPM (%) 0.1 2.5 1.6 0.9 2.4
400
20,000
ROE (%) 0.8 26.4 19.4 14.1 34.0
200 PER (x) 68.9 15.3 18.1 45.2 14.7
0
10/2022 01/2023 04/2023 07/2023
0
PBR (x) 2.3 5.9 5.6 6.1 4.9
VN Index FRT VN EQUITY EV/EBITDA (x) 17.0 10.1 12.7 17.2 8.9
A clear improvement of Bach hoa Xanh
Investment points
Mobile World Investment Corporation (Mobile World, HoSE: MWG) is a leading retail enterprise in Vietnam, having an ecosystem to
TARGET PRICE (12 months) Vnd 53,560 meet the diverse needs of customers. We assess MWG as an investment that can be held as (i) The economy recovers, improving retail
Current price (06/10/23) Vnd 48,300 purchasing power from Q4/2023, boosting MWG's business results in 2024; (ii) Business results of Bach hoa Xanh chain grow positively.
Return (%) 10.0%
Update business result
ICT chains: Q2.23 revenue of ICT segment was critically affected due to the competition in selling price among ICT retailers. This helps
VNINDEX 1,129 MWG greatly gain more retail market share during the saturation of the ICT industry. The DMX chain contributed more than 50% of
P/E 1Y Forward(x) 11.1 MWG's total revenue, reaching VND 14,866 billion (-18.5% YoY). Revenue of TGDD chain recorded VND 6,683 billion (-23.7% YoY).
Market Cap. (bn VND) 70,642 Bach hoa Xanh chain: In Q2.23, revenue positively reached VND 7,271 billion (+7.6% YoY). The average monthly revenue per store
Outstanding Shares (mn) 1,463 keeps improving, recording VND 1.41 billion in Q2.2023 and expecting to reach VND 2 billion by YE2023 to help BHX break even. The
Free Floating Shares (mn) 1,101 growth was mainly driven from: attracting new customers, increasing the purchase frequency and the shopping cart value of existing
52-WkHigh/Low (VND) 62,300/35,250 customers.
3M Avg. Trading Vol.(triệu CP) 6.14 Accumulated 6M2023: MWG's consolidated revenue and NPAT reached VND 56,571 billion (-20% YoY) and VND 38.7 billion (-98.5%
3M Avg. T/O (tỷ VND) 368 YoY), respectively, completing 42% and 1% of the target goal. In 2H23, MWG continues to apply competitive price strategy to its ICT
49
chains; exploits more household goods and accessories to improve profit margin; optimize opex and suspend expansion plan towards
Foreign ownership(%)
all retail chains.
Retail World Investment
10.5
Consulting Co., Ltd We forecast MWG's revenue and NPAT in 2023 to reach VND 113,838 billion (-14.7% YoY) and VND 822 billion (-80% YoY),
Major shareholders (%)
Arisaig Partners 4.99 respectively, with the expectation that consumer purchasing power will improve from Q4/2023 and recover clearly in 2024.
Risks: (1) Competitive risk; (2) Risk from weak retail consumption; (3) Risk from having many diversified retail chains; (4) Risk from
impairment of inventory.
Absolute(%) 11.8 23.5 -16.7
FY 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Relative to VN-Index(%) 12.6 18.0 -25.7 Revenue (bn VND) 108,546 122,958 133,405 113,838 134,887
1,800 100,000
OP (bn VND) 5,413 6,466 6,575 1,180 4,564
1,600 NP (bn VND) 3,920 4,901 4,102 822 3,316
1,400 80,000 EPS (VND) 4,584 3,340 3,499 562 2,266
1,200 BPS (VND) 10,584 13,925 16,363 16,426 17,695
60,000
1,000
OPM (%) 5.0 5.3 4.9 1.0 3.4
800
40,000 NPM (%) 3.6 4.0 3.1 0.7 2.5
600
400
ROE (%) 25.3 24.1 17.1 3.4 12.8
20,000
200 PER (x) 9.1 19.7 11.9 89.5 23.7
0 0 PBR (x) 4.0 4.7 2.5 3.1 3.0
10/2022 01/2023 04/2023 07/2023
VN Index MWG VN EQUITY
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.5 5.3 5.7 9.4 6.7
Tien Le
☎(84-28) 6299-8029
[email protected]
Industrial real estate – Prepare to welcome the eagle
1. Overview of industrial real estate

Industrial real estate has seen steady growth over the
years with stable rental prices
2. Potential of industrial real estate
The prospect of infrastructure development and the
shift of foreign capital flows will contribute to the
strong development of industrial real estate.
3. Industrial real estate outlook
Industrial real estate is expected to continue to develop
with the increase in rental prices and high absorption
rates.
4. Stock pick
BCM, KBC, IDC, SZC – Benefiting from FDI recovers and
strong infrastructure investment
Overview of industrial real estate
01 Industrial real estate has had stable development over the
years. FDI capital flows into Vietnam continue to grow,
creating a foundation for industrial real estate development.
Number and area of industrial parks 2015 – 2030 Industrial park land price from 2019 - 6M/2023 (USD/m2/cycle)
250.0 600
558
200
200.0 485 500
394 411 400 150
150.0 364 368 369
325 328
304 300 100
100.0
200
50
50.0 100
-
- -
2019 2020 2021 2022 6T2023
North side South side

Industrial park area (thousand ha) No of industrial parks
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: CBRE, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• By the end of 2022, the country had 411 industrial parks established with a total area of about 129.3 thousand hectares, the
average occupancy rate in industrial parks was 80%. Industrial parks are concentrated mainly in the South (mainly in: Ho Chi
Minh, Binh Duong, Long An, Dong Nai, Ba Ria Vung Tau) and the North (mainly in: Hanoi, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, and
Hung Yen). According to the government's plan, by 2030, the country will have about 558 industrial parks with a total area of
more than 200 thousand hectares.
• Industrial real estate continues to show its appeal with industrial land prices increasing by about 10% annually. The average
land price of an industrial park in the South is about USD 187/m2/cycle, and the average land price in the North is about USD
127/m2/cycle.
Rented area and occupancy rate of Industrial Park from Rented area and occupancy rate of Industrial Park from
2019 – 6M/2023 in the North 2019 – 6M/2023 in the South
Rented area (ha) Occupancy rate (%) Rented area (ha) Occupancy rate (%)
700 1,200 110%
600 90%
1,000 90%
500
70% 800
400 70%
600
300 50%
50%
400
200
30% 30%
100 200
- 10% - 10%
2019 2020 2021 2022 6T2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 6T2023
• Compared to 6M/2022, the rented land in the South increased by 20%, while in the North it increased by 60%. The average
occupancy rate in the North and South continues to remain high, with the North reaching about 80% and the South reaching
about 90%. In provinces such as Hanoi, Dong Nai, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, and Ho Chi Minh City, many industrial parks are fully
filled.
• The high absorption of new industrial land and high occupancy rate shows the potential for development in industrial parks
despite the weak economic situation and freezing real estate market.
Absorption area and occupancy rate of RBW/RBF from 2019 - Absorption area and occupancy rate of RBW/RBF from 2019 -
6M/2023 in the North 6M/2023 in the South
Rented RBF (thousand m2) Rented RBW (thousand m2)
Rented RBF (thousand m2) Rented RBW (thousand m2)
RBF absorption rate (%) RBW absorption rate (%) RBF absorption rate (%) RBW absorption rate (%)
300 700
90% 600 90%
250
500
200 70% 70%
400
150
50% 300 50%
100
200
30% 30%
50
100
- 10% - 10%
2019 2020 2021 2022 6T2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 6T2023
• The boom in e-commerce has fueled strong demand growth in ready-built warehouses (RBW) and ready-built factories (RBF).
The average growth rates of RBF and RBW were about 23% and 22% respectively in the period 2019 - Q2/2023.
• In the North, the absorption rate of RBF and RBW reached about 80%. Meanwhile, in the South, the absorption rate of RBW
and RBF is different, with the absorption rate of RBF reaching over 90%, while the occupancy rate of RBW reaches over 60% in
the South.
• The modern, integrated design of RBF and RBW, which makes it appropriate for light industries and supporting industries, is
expected to lead to an increase in consumption demand. At the same time, there will be a high need for warehouses due to the
potential growth of e-commerce.
 Strategic location: Vietnam has an important strategic
position on the international freight route in transporting
goods from Asia to all over the world.
Low costs Strategic location
 Open economic policy: Vietnam has signed many FTA
agreements with countries around the world to facilitate
import and export. Open economic policy allows countries
that set up factories in Vietnam to easily export to all over
the world.
 Stable economy: The developing economic situation and
stable politics contribute to attracting countries to invest in
Vietnam
 Strong infrastructure development: The government's Strong Open
promotion of public investment and upgrading infrastructure economic
infrastructure will contribute to the effectiveness economy, development policy
reducing transportation costs and saving time. This creates
favorable conditions for attracting FDI enterprises.
 Low costs: Land rental prices, labor prices and electricity
prices in Vietnam are among the lowest in Southeast Asia. Stable economy
Thereby creating a special competitive advantage to
attract countries around the world to invest in Vietnam.
Potential of industrial real estate
02 The prospect of infrastructure development and the shift of
foreign capital flows, especially the US market, contributing
to the strong development of industrial real estate.
Disbursement of public investment in the period 2018 - 2023 (billion VND)
Cumulative payment for public
investment in the first 7M of 2023
90% 90%
1,000,000 81% 77% 81% 100%
76% 74%
800,000 80%
600,000 60%
267,625 400,000 40%
186,848 200,000 20%
- 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Jan - July/2022 Jan - July/2023
Disbursement of public investment Public investment plan Disbursement rate (%)
Source: Ministry of Finance, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• The Ministry of Finance's report showed that the estimated disbursement of public investment from January to July of 2023
was VND 267,625 billion (+43% YoY). The disbursement rate reached 35.49% compared to the plan, higher than 31.61% in the
first 7 months of 2022.
• Based on Resolution No. 29/2021/QH15, with a total plan for the period 2021 - 2025 of VND 2.87 quadrillion, we estimate that
the disbursement plan in 2024 will reach more than VND 800 trillion, an increase of approximately 13% compared to 2023, the
disbursement rate is expected to be maintained at 90% according to the government's target.
• The year 2024 is considered to be an important year in developing infrastructure when important infrastructure projects such
as North-South Expressway Phase 2, Ring Road 3, Ring Road 4, and Long Thanh Airport Phase 1 completed bidding and began
construction in 2023.
Total
Name of project Period investment Investment status of projects
(billion VND)
9/11 highway projects were completed. The Dien Chau-Bai
North - South Expressway phase 2017 –
118,716 Vot and Cam Lam-Vinh Hao projects will be completed in
1 2024
2024.
North - South Expressway phase 2023 – All 12 projects of phase 2 have completed bidding and
146,990
2 2025 begun construction in 2023.
The project has cleared 92% of the site area, 4/14 bidding
2022 – packages have begun construction from June 2023, the
Ring Road 3 (Ho Chi Minh) 75,378
2026 remaining bidding packages will complete contractor
selection procedures in 2023.
The project has cleared 86.68% of the site area. On June 25,
2022 –
Ring Road 4 (Hanoi) 85,813 the governments of Hanoi, Bac Ninh, and Hung Yen jointly
2026
started construction on Ring Road 4.
The project has selected a contractor for package 5.10 on
2020 – the construction and installation of passenger terminal
Long Thanh Airport phase 1 114,451
2025 equipment. A number of other important packages have
also signed contracts and will be constructed in 2023.
Source: Ministry of Transport, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Northern Industrial Park
Ha Noi
Hai Phong
Bac Ninh
Hai Duong
Hung Yen
Central Industrial Park
Da Nang
Quang Nam
Quang Ngai
Southern Industrial Park
Ho Chi Minh
Binh Duong
Dong Nai
Vung Tau
Long An
Source: JLL, Ministry of Transport, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Investment prospects for infrastructure projects are promising in for the period
2020 - 2030
• Between 2021 and 2030, 1,874 trillion VND will be allocated to

infrastructure projects all around the nation. It includes 48% of the state
budget for road infrastructure.
• Statistics show that 1,163 km of roadways were built and placed into use
nationwide between 2000 and 2021. By 2025, the entire nation will have
around 3,000 km of highways, more than doubling the existing total. By
2030, the government plans to achieve 5,000 km of highways.
Infrastructure projects help the economy connect effectively, contributing to

attracting FDI capital
• Infrastructure projects play an important role in attracting foreign
companies to invest in facilities in Vietnam. Promoting infrastructure
investment will help connect the economy better. Thereby, increasing
efficiency in transporting goods and raw materials domestically, promoting
production efficiency, and minimizing costs. In addition, developed
infrastructure will support connections with important seaports and
airports, helping to boost imports and exports.
Source: Ministry of Transport, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

FDI registration and disbursement in the first 8 months of 2022 and 2023
400.00 150%
350.00 120%
100%
300.00 86%
80%
250.00 55% 50%
200.00 11%
12% 5%
150.00 2% 2% 1% 3% 0%
-16% 5%
100.00 -40%
-51% -50%
-20%
50.00
0.00 -100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Number of new projects issued in 2022 Number of new projects issued in 2023
FDI disbursement growth YoY (%) Registered FDI capital growth YoY (%)
• The registered FDI capital grew again after a decline in 6M/2023, the amount of registered FDI capital has increased again and
recorded outstanding growth in the second and third quarters with an increase grew more than 50% YoY. Cumulatively for the
first 8 months of the year, the amount of disbursed FDI capital reached USD 13,100 million (+1% YoY), and the amount of
registered FDI capital reached USD 18,146 million (+8% YoY).
• The number of new FDI projects in 2023 is also much higher than the previous year, cumulatively in the first 8 months of the
year, the country recorded 1,924 projects, an increase of 69.5% YoY in the number of projects.
• Provincial authorities have been active in organizing investment promotion seminars, inviting investors and large businesses
from abroad. Thereby contributing to promoting FDI capital to continue flowing into Vietnam.
Industrial production index - IIP (%) Import-export FDI enterprises 11/2022 – 08/2023 (USD billion)
30 15%
15.00%
10%
25
10.00% 5%
9.6%
20 0%
3.6% 3.9%
5.00% 5.1% -5%
15
2.2% 2.9% -10%
0.00% 0.3% -1.0% 2.0% 10 -15%
-20%
-5.00% 5
-25%
0 -30%
-10.00%
-15.00% -14.6%
Exports of FDI enterprises Imports of FDI enterprises
-20.00% Export growth YoY (%) Import growth YoY (%)
Source: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
• The industrial production index returned to positive since February 2023, which shows that the production situation improved
compared to the previous year. This shows that the production activities of enterprises in general and FDI in particular are
gradually recovering after the decline.
• Cumulative exports of FDI enterprises reached USD 167 billion, down 10% compared to 2022. Although the export situation is
lower than last year, the export value of FDI enterprises improved gradually from May 2023
• The recovering business situation of FDI enterprises in Vietnam continues to be the premise for new capital flows to continue
flowing into Vietnam.
Top 10 localities receiving FDI capital accumulated for 8 months
Top 10 localities receiving FDI capital accumulated for 8M2023
(million USD)
2022 2023 Hanoi
3,000
Hai Phong
2,500
City. Ho Chi Minh
2,000
Bac Giang
1,500
Binh Duong
1,000 Bac Ninh
500 Dong Nai
0 Nghe An
Quang Ninh
Binh Phuoc
• Provinces such as Hanoi, Hai Phong, Ho Chi Minh, Bac Giang, and Binh Duong continue to be destinations for FDI capital flows
into Vietnam. With open economic policies, a stable macroeconomic situation, and good policies to support foreign investors,
Vietnam continues to be trusted by international investors and large businesses around the world.
• Northern provinces will continue to receive the majority of FDI capital in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions data showing that
65% of FDI electronic businesses are currently located in Northern industrial parks (Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Thai
Nguyen and Ha Nam), 30% in the South (Binh Duong, Ho Chi Minh City and Dong Nai), and the remaining in the Central region.
Top 10 countries investing in Vietnam accumulated in 8 months Structure of sectors receiving FDI capital (%)
(million USD)
Processing and
2022 2023 8% manufacturing
5,000
4%
4,000 Real estate business
9%
3,000
Finance, banking and
2,000
10% insurance
1,000
Science and
0
69% technology
Japan
Korea
Samoa
Thailand
Taiwan
Netherlands
Singapore
China
America
Hong Kong
Other
• Investors from Asia and traditional investment partners still account for a large proportion (Singapore, Japan, China, Korea,
Hong Kong, Taiwan). These 6 partners alone account for 79% of the country's total registered FDI capital in the first 8 months of
2023.
• Vietnam is positioned as one of the most potential locations to expand production and is emerging as a bright spot for supply
chain and logistics shifts in the Asia-Pacific region. In recent years, the state has actively invested heavily in infrastructure,
thereby contributing to attracting FDI capital to flow into Vietnam.
• The processing and manufacturing industry is the main investment field of foreign enterprises in Vietnam, accounting for 69%
of FDI capital invested in Vietnam.
• Since the Russia-Ukraine war, the global economy has increasingly fragmented into opposing poles. In the race related to
semiconductor chips and renewable energy, countries such as the US and EU are competing with China more and more fiercely
as tax and retaliation measures are applied respectively. Faced with the above situation, the China +1 strategy is a business
strategy that international corporations apply to avoid investing only in China and diversify production business activities to
other countries.
• With an open economic policy and participation in many important economic agreements, Vietnam has created a unique
advantage that helps attract international investors to Vietnam. Vietnam is considered an important bridge to help
international businesses conveniently export and import goods around the world.
US FDI (USDmn) flow into Vietnam
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2020
2021
2022
2016
2017
2018
2019
8M/2023
• During the visit of US President Joe Biden to Vietnam on the afternoon of September 10, On the occasion, a Joint Leaders’
Statement on elevating the ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership was issued. President Biden called on both sides’
enterprises to prioritize investment in science-technology and innovation, especially digital transformation, the semiconductor
industry, green growth, renewable energy, the climate change fight, and the circular economy.
• FDI capital flows from the US have also recorded positive growth in recent years. Accumulated in 8M/2023, the US has invested
about 490 million USD in Vietnam, an increase of 32% over the same period last year, and ranked 8th among countries
investing in Vietnam. With the prospect of upgrading the relationship between the two countries into a comprehensive
strategic partnership, FDI capital flows from the US to Vietnam are expected to explode.
• After the US President's business trip to Vietnam, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh made a business trip from September 17 to
September 26 in the United States. During the above business trip, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh rang the bell to open the
trading session at the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges. Through the above events, the Prime Minister informed investors in the
US about the favorable business and investment environment in Vietnam and encouraged businesses to invest in Vietnam.
• The Prime Minister affirmed that Vietnam will create the most favorable conditions for investors through the implementation of
three strategic breakthroughs: perfecting institutions, mechanisms, and policies; developing modern and synchronous
infrastructure; and training high-quality human resources. At the same time, Vietnam will also promote administrative reform,
protect the rights and interests of investors, always listen, understand, and collaborate to remove difficulties, overcome
challenges, and help businesses and investors reduce costs, increase competitiveness, and operate effectively and sustainably.
• Also during his business trip to the United States, the Prime Minister met leaders of some of the world's leading economic
corporations in technology, including SpaceX, Coca-Cola, Pacifico Energy, Apple, Boeing, Google, and Siemens Healthineers.
Thereby the Prime Minister encouraged large corporations to invest and expand factories in Vietnam.
• The Prime Minister also had a meeting with billionaire Bill Gates. Thereby, Bill Gates said that Vietnam is very important in the
development policy of Microsoft and its foundations. At the same time, he will continue promoting cooperation and support
activities for Vietnam, focusing on the fields of sanitation, clean water, environment; medicine; AI field, and advanced
educational models.
Company's name Total investment Country Invesment area
Coca-Cola Construction of a beverage factory with a total area of 19

136 million USD America
hectares
Suntory PepsiCo Construction of a beverage factory with a total area of 20
185 million USD America
hectares
P&G 100 million USD America Expanding the production line of Ben Cat factory
AES Corporation 13 billion USD America Offshore wind power project in Binh Thuan province
Apple Corporation Moving 11 factories producing audio-visual equipment to

4 billion USD America
Vietnam
SpaceX 500 million USD America Providing Starlink services
Intel 1 billion USD America Expanding factory in Vietnam

Industrial real estate outlook
03 Industrial real estate is expected to continue to grow with
rental price growth and high absorption rates.
Projected cumulative area and industrial park land rental price Projected cumulative area and industrial park land rental price
from 2021 - 2024F in the North from 2021 - 2024F in the South
Land area (ha) Average price (USD/m2/chu kỳ) Land area (ha) Average price (USD/m2/chu kỳ)
14,000 160 21,000 250
12,000 140
200
10,000 120 20,500
100 150
8,000
80 20,000
6,000 100
60
4,000 40 19,500
50
2,000 20
- - 19,000 -
2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
• With the advantage of an open economy and the government's special policies to develop industrial parks, the outlook for
industrial park real estate will continue to remain positive in the future. According to CBRE's report, the area of industrial park
land in the North and South is expected to increase by 3,700 hectares and 9,800 hectares, respectively.
• Industrial park land prices are forecast to continue to grow steadily at 5% - 10%/year in the future thanks to stable rental
demand, continued high occupancy rates, and continued FDI capital inflow into Vietnam.
Accumulated area and average price of RBF/ RBW 2019 – Accumulated area and average price of RBF/ RBW 2019 –
6M/2023 in the North 6M/2023 in the South
Area of RBF (million m2) Area of RBW (million m2) Area of RBF (million m2) Area of RBW (million m2)
Average price of RBF (USD/m2/month) Average price of RBW (USD/m2/month) Average price of RBF (USD/m2/month) Average price of RBW (USD/m2/month)
2.5 6.00 5.00 6.0
2.0 5.00 4.00 5.0
4.0
1.5 4.00 3.00
3.0
1.0 3.00 2.00
2.0
0.5 2.00 1.00 1.0
- 1.00 - -
2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
• With the trend of shifting production from China to Vietnam along with the boom of e-commerce, we forecast that RBF and
RBW will continue to grow in the future thanks to modern design, saving costs, and capital for leasing businesses. In addition,
completed infrastructure will contribute to connecting big cities more effectively, thereby creating conditions for RBW and RBF
to develop in neighboring provinces around big cities.
• We expect the RBW and RBF rental area to maintain stable growth from 15% to 20% in 2023 - 2024. The absorption rate will
maintain from 85% - 95% in major cities. RBW and RBF rents are forecast to increase slightly by about 5%.
The North The Central The South
Currently: The largest
technology center focuses on
Current: Advanced electronics,
Currently: Traditional heavy traditional industries such as
automobiles, electrical
Oriented industry and light industry. plastic, rubber, textiles, and fast-
appliances.
development Orientation: Convert to higher
Orientation: Developing into a moving consumer goods.
new industrial center. Orientation: Developing the
value chain.
field of IOT and high
technology.
Allocation of
85% (concentrated in
technological 8% (concentrated in Hanoi) 7% (concentrated in Da Nang)
Ho Chi Minh)
human resources
Technology brands
Typical industrial
BCM, SZC, IDC, TID, SIP, NTC, ITA,
park real estate KBC, VRG, IDV, SGT
LHG
enterprise
Source: Vietnam IC community, JLL, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
 Industrial parks near big cities like Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi are expected to benefit from the foreign technology
investment trend in Vietnam, thanks to their availability of highly qualified human resources.
Land area of some industrial park real estate businesses at the end of 2022
Commercial land area (ha) Remaining land area (ha)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
BCM KBC IDC SZC NTC LHG SIP VRG
Source: Corporate report, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

04
Industrial park Stock Pick
BCM, KBC, IDC, SZC – Benefiting from FDI
recovers and strong infrastructure investment
General information Financial data Valuation
Revenue
Mkt Target Mkt cap 6M/2023 Profit in 6M/2023 profit
Upside growth in ROA - ROE - GPM - P/E - P/B -
Ticker Rating price price (Billion revenue 6M/2023 growth (% D/E
(%) 6M/2023 TTM (%) TTM (%) TTM (%) TTM TTM
(VND) (VND) VND) (Billion VND) (Billion VND) YoY)
(% YoY)
BCM Buy 68,900 88,300 28% 71,311 1,885 -44% 49 -97% 2.54% 0.89% 39.34% 0.9 171.81 4.39
KBC Buy 30,800 37,000 20% 23,642 4,551 319% 2068 933% 19.92% 9.79% 67.91% 0.21 8 1.49
IDC Hold 47,000 49,500 5% 15,510 3,554 -29% 838 -52% 25.59% 7.79% 36.66% 0.59 12.29 3.27
SZC Hold 35,600 38,300 8% 4,272 351 -35% 108 -21% 10.87% 2.70% 42.81% 1.48 28.15 2.92
NTC N/A 185,100 N/A N/A 4,442 118 -13% 155 1% 32.48% 6.32% 69.55% 0.2 17.24 5.16
LHG N/A 33,000 N/A N/A 1,652 182 -48% 75 -16% 12.32% 6.25% 49.81% 0.11 7.89 1
SIP N/A 59,500 N/A N/A 16,398 3,057 -1% 460 -9% 26.33% 4.42% 14.55% 0.37 10.58 3.8
VRG N/A 24,300 N/A N/A 629 19 109% 1 -188% 19.76% 8.61% 66.25% - 12.11 2.52
* Target price (fair value) for the next 12 months Source: SSV Research, Bloomberg
** Data for 12 months up to Q2/2023 Data as of October 06, 2023
Recovery prospects for Cay Truong Industrial Park and revenue from project transfer
- Became IDC Investment and Industrial Development Corporation (HoSE: BCM), established in 1976, is one of the leading industrial park
Target price (12 months) VND88,300 development enterprises in Vietnam. Becamex is a reputable brand with experience in developing industrial parks in Binh Duong province.
During its operation, Becamex has attracted more than 500 businesses from 30 different countries. Becamex currently owns 6 industrial
Current price (06/10/23) VND 68,900 parks with an area of more than 4,000 hectares. In addition, BCM also participates in a joint venture with Singaporean businesses to
Return(%) 28% develop the VSIP industrial parks (BCM owns 49%). VSIP is the leading integrated industrial park developer in Vietnam, with 12 projects
across the country and a total area of more than 10,000 hectares.
VNINDEX 1,128
Market P/E (x) 11.4
- BCM reached 1,885 billion VND in 6M/2023 (-44% YoY), profit after tax reached 106 billion VND (-92% YoY). The decline in BCM's business
results mainly came from the real estate market freezing in the first months of the year and the decline in FDI inflows in 6M/2023. This
Marketcap (billion VND) 71,311 causes weak demand and greatly affects profits from BCM's joint venture companies.
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 1,035
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 92,800/64,000 - With the prospect of strong growth in FDI capital from Q2/2023 and the real estate market recovering, we expect Becamex's business
situation to improve significantly in the third and fourth quarters of 2023. With a commercial land area of up to 490 hectares, BCM's Cay
Truong industrial park is expected to contribute greatly to BCM's business future revenue. In addition, BCM also expects to record a
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 21 revenue of about 5,000 billion from selling part of the “New City” project to Capital Land this year, contributing to a sudden increase in
People's Committee of
95.44 revenue this year.
Binh Duong province
Major SHDs (%)
Nguyen Van Hung 0.58
- We estimate revenue in 2023 and 2024 to reach VND 3,610 billion (+32% YoY) and VND 4,272 billion (+18% YoY), profit after tax to reach
VND 240 billion (+55% YoY) and 407 billion VND (+69% YoY) with main contribution from the industrial real estate segment.
Performance 3M 6M 12M Risk:
Absolute (%) -12.2 -15.5 -17.9 (1) Declining demand for industrial park real estate;
Rel.to VN-Index (%) -14.8 -24.7 -20.4 (2) Debt/equity ratio is high;
(3) Progress of industrial park project implementation is slow.
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F

Revenue (bn VND) 6,507 6,982 6,506 8,458 9,019
OP (bn VND) 1,910 2,002 1,437 1,945 2,345
OP margin (%) 29.3 28.7 22.1 23.0 26.0
NPATMI (bn VND) 2,098 1,451 1,685 1,972 2,401
NP margin (%) 32.2 20.8 25.9 23.3 26.6

EPS (VND) 1,840 1,232 1,482 1,905 2,320
ROE (%) 12.7 8.1 9.3 10.2 11.3
P/E (x) 22.4 51.9 54.4 36.2 29.7
P/B (x) 2.8 4.1 4.9 3.7 3.4
Source: Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities, Data as of October 06, 2023
Development potential with Trang Due 3 Industrial Park
Target price (12 months) VND37,000 - Kinh Bac City Development Holding Corporation (HoSE: KBC), established in 2002, is one of the leading industrial park real estate
development enterprises in Vietnam. KBC has experience working with and attracting leading FDI corporations to Vietnam. More than 90%
Current price (06/10/23) VND 30,800 of customers at KBC’s industrial park are foreign corporations, from countries such as Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and China with big names such
Return(%) 20% as Canon, Foxconn, LG... By the end of 2022, KBC owned a land fund of up to 6,386 hectares of industrial park land from North to South.
VNINDEX 1,128 - Revenue in 6M/2023 reached 4,550 billion VND (+319% YoY), profit after tax reached 2,608 billion VND (+933% YoY). KBC achieved
Market P/E (x) 11.4 impressive business results in the first 6 months of the year thanks to leasing activities from the expanded Quang Chau Industrial Park and
Marketcap (billion VND)
Nam Son Hap Linh Industrial Park. In the first 6 months of the year, KBC successfully handed over about 130 hectares of industrial park land
23,642
to FDI customers. In addition, land rental prices in Nam Son Hap Linh Industrial Park also fluctuated around 130 - 140 USD/m2, much higher
than the previous period, thereby significantly improving KBC's gross profit margin.
36,600/13,250
52-weekhigh/low (VND)
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares) 9.63 - Regarding future prospects, Trang Due 3 Industrial Park is expected to be a major contributor to KBC's business results in the future. Trang
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND)
Due 3 Industrial Park with an area of 687 hectares (of which 200 hectares of land have been cleared and ready for lease). Trang Due 3
308
Industrial Park is expected to be approved for investment at the end of 2023 and will be deployed in 2024. Trang Due Industrial Park 3 is
Dang ThanhTam 18.06 expected to bring in revenue of about 11,500 billion VND for KBC in the period 2024 – 2027.
Major SHDs (%)
Kinh Bac Consulting and
8.11 - Thereby, we estimate that KBC's revenue in 2023 and 2024 is expected to reach VND 6,633 billion (+598% YoY) and VND 8,980 billion
Investment JSC (+35% YoY), respectively, and profit after tax will reach VND 2,695 billion, respectively. (+71% YoY) and VND 3,428 billion (+27% YoY).
Performance 3M 6M 12M Risk:
Absolute (%) 10.7 41.4 16.5 (1) Declining demand for industrial park real estate;
Rel.to VN-Index (%) 8.1 32.1 14.0 (2) Debt/equity ratio is high;
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Revenue (bn VND) 2,151 4,246 950 6,633 8,980
OP (bn VND) 366 1,849 -245 3,535 4,018
OP margin (%) 17.0 43.5 -25.7 53.3 44.7
NPATMI (bn VND) 224 1,095 1,526 2,609 3,319
NP margin (%) 10.4 25.8 160.6 39.3 37.0

EPS (VND) 358 1,441 1,993 3399 4324
ROE (%) 2.4 9.2 10.1 12.8 14.0
P/E (x) 51.2 31.6 12.1 10.5 8.2
P/B (x) 1.2 2.4 1.2 1.3 1.2

The large area of land available for lease creates a great advantage for IDC
Target price (12 months) VND49,500 - IDICO Corporation (HoSE: IDC) was established in 2000, formerly known as Vietnam Urban and Industrial Park Development Investment
Corporation. IDC operates mainly in the industrial park sector (accounting for 44%), the electricity business sector (accounting for 38%),
Current price (06/10/23) VND 47,000 and the BOT segment (accounting for 5%). IDC is investing and managing 10 industrial parks in Vietnam with a total area of nearly 3,267
Return(%) 5% hectares. Among them, there are 7 industrial parks in the South, and 3 industrial parks in the North located in the provinces of Dong Nai, Ba
Ria-Vung Tau, Long An, Vinh Phuc, Bac Ninh, and Thai Binh. For the electricity segment, IDC owns 2 hydroelectric plants with a total
VNINDEX 1,128 capacity of up to 114 MW, and a system of 2 transformer stations that contribute over 80% of the total revenue of the electricity segment at
Market P/E (x) 11.4 IDC.
- Accumulated in 6M2023, IDC revenue reached 3,554 billion VND (-29% YoY), profit after tax reached 838 billion VND (-52% YoY), and the
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 330 total land area sold is about 77 hectares. The reason for IDC's decline is mainly due to the fact that in 6M/2022, IDC recorded an unusual
Free-float (mil shares) 209 revenue of about VND 1,500 billion coming from changing the revenue recognition method of Nhon Trach V Industrial Park.
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 51,400/23,600
- IDC's available land area for lease reaches 677 hectares, mainly concentrated in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province (236 hectares in Phu My II
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 154 Industrial Park and expanded of current Industrial Park) and Long An province (294 hectares in Huu Thanh Industrial Park). Besides, IDC
SSG Group Joint Stock
22.5 also plans to invest in Tan Phuoc 1 Industrial Park and is expected to lease it in 2024.
Company
Major SHDs (%)
Bach Viet Production and
11.93
- With a high level of land funds available for lease, we estimate IDC revenue will have growth potential in 2023 and 2024. We expect 2023
Trading Company Limited and 2024 revenue to reach VND 7,744 billion (+3.4 % YoY) and 987 billion VND (+13% YoY), profit after tax reached 1,864 billion VND
Performance 3M 6M 12M (+5.4% YoY) and 2,210 billion VND (+18% YoY), respectively.
Risk:
Absolute (%) 9.2 16.9 -6.5
(1) Declining demand for industrial park real estate;
Rel.to VN-Index (%) 6.6 7.7 -9.0
(2) Weakened FDI capital flows;
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Revenue (bn VND) 5,356 4,301 7,485 7,744 8,803
OP (bn VND) 1,236 477 2,726 2,516 2,984
OP margin (%) 23.1 11.1 36.4 32.5 33.9
NPATMI (bn VND) 873 454 1,768 1,864 2,210
NP margin (%) 16.3 10.6 23.6 24.1 25.1

EPS (VND) 2,630 1,376 5,356 5,298 6,218
ROE (%) 22.8 11.2 40.0 33.0 68.3
P/E (x) 12.3 48.0 5.9 9.1 7.8
Source:
P/B (x) Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities, Data as of 2.5
October 06, 20235.6 2.1 2.5 2.3
Possessing potential advantages with Chau Duc industrial park
- Sonadezi Chau Duc Joint Stock Company (HoSE: SZC) was established on June 26, 2007, formerly known as Sonadezi Infrastructure
Target price (12 months) VND38,300 Development Joint Stock Company, SZC operates mainly in the field of industrial park land leasing, real estate business and invests in BOT
projects. In which, SZC's industrial park real estate segment accounts for more than 80% of the total revenue structure. SZC owns a large land
Current price (17/09/23) VND 35,600 area of up to 2,287 hectares in Chau Duc district, Ba Ria Vung Tau province, of which industrial park land accounts for 1,556 hectares, the rest
Return(%) 8% is mainly for urban areas and golf courses.
VNINDEX 1,128 - In the first 6 months of 2023, SZC revenue reached 351 billion VND (-35% YoY), profit after tax reached 108 billion VND (-21% YoY), total land
Market P/E (x) 11.4 area handed over is about 15 hectares. The reason for SZC's decline is mainly due to the weak economic situation in the first 6 months of the
Marketcap (billion VND) 4,272 year and the frozen domestic real estate market.
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 120 Investment catalysts & theses
Free-float (mil shares) 51 - In the long term, SZC has a land fund of up to 300 hectares ready for lease (out of a total of 560 hectares of remaining industrial park land) in
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 41,500/17,042 Chau Duc industrial park, contributing to creating a long-term growth foundation for SZC. In general, Chau Duc Industrial Park is strategically
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares) 1.29 located near Cai Mep International Port. Besides, the rental price of Chau Duc Industrial Park ranges from USD 70 - USD 75, cheaper than
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 44 large provinces such as Binh Duong and Ho Chi Minh, which creates potential conditions to attract foreign investors.
Industrial Park
46.84 - Thereby, we estimate that SZC's revenue in 2023 and 2024 is expected to reach VND 872 billion (+2% YoY) and VND 987 billion (+13% YoY),
Major SHDs (%)
Development JSC respectively, and profit after tax will reach VND 235 billion (+19% YoY) in 2023 and VND 273 billion (+16% YoY) in 2024.
SonadeziLong Thanh JSC 10.08 Risk:
Performance 3M 6M 12M (1) Declining demand for industrial park real estate;
47.8
(2) Weakened FDI capital flows;
Absolute (%) 17.8 5.8
(3) Legal issues and compensation costs for Chau Duc Industrial Park;
Rel.to VN-Index (%) 15.3 38.5 3.3
Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Revenue (bn VND) 433 713 859 872 987
OP (bn VND) 199 386 260 314 365
OP margin (%) 46.0 54.2 30.2 36.0 37.0
NPATMI (bn VND) 186 324 197 235 273
NP margin (%) 43.0 45.4 23.0 26.9 27.7

EPS (VND) 1,401 2,395 1,458 1,958 2,275
ROE (%) 13.7 21.1 11.7 14.2 15.1
P/E (x) 19.0 23.7 15.0 19.5 16.8
P/B (x) 2.5 4.6 1.7 2.8 2.5
Hoang Nam
☎ (84-28) 6299-7603
Manufacturing recovery driving growth
1. Update power industry 2023 and outlook in 2024

Thermal power mobilization increased significantly at the
beginning of 2023 but gradually cooled down towards
the end of the year. The outlook for the power industry in
2024 is expected to recover strongly thanks to positive
economic growth.
2. Renewable energy development orientation
Gas power will be prioritized for strong development until
2030. While wind power and solar power will be focused
on developing more strongly in the long term when
investment costs are expected to decrease.
3. Investment opportunities
POW, PC1, GEG - Orientation for renewable electricity
development
Power Sector Update 2023
01 and Outlook 2024
Thermal power mobilization increased significantly at the beginning of
2023 but gradually cooled down towards the end of the year. The
outlook for the power industry in 2024 is expected to recover strongly
thanks to positive economic growth.
30%
14%
25%
20% 12%
15%
10% 9%
10% 6%
5% 8%
2%
0% 6%
-5%
-10% 4%
-15% 2%
-20%
0%
IIP (YoY) Electricity consumption growth (YoY)

GDP Growth Commercial power output Growth (%)
Source: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Worldbank, EVN, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
100% 100
80% 80
61
60% 60 53
38 41
40% 40
20% 20
6
0% 0
12/21
1/21
2/21
3/21
4/21
5/21
6/21
7/21
8/21
9/21
10/21
11/21
1/22
2/22
3/22
4/22
5/22
6/22
7/22
8/22
9/22
10/22
1/23
2/23
3/23
4/23
5/23
6/23
7/23
8/23
9/23
10/2023 11/2023 12/2023 1/2024 2/2024 3/2024 4/2024 5/2024 6/2024
Coal fired Hydropower Gas fired Renewable Import La Nina Neutral EL Nino
Source: EVN, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: IRI, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
2,500 800
2023 2022
2021 2020 700
2,000 600
500
1,500 400
300
1,000
200
100
500
0
-
Coal FO Singapore
Source: EVN, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Renewable electricity
02 development orientation
Gas power will be prioritized for strong development until 2030. While
wind power and solar power will be focused on developing more
strongly in the long term when investment costs are expected to
decrease.
100%
5%
3%
26%
14%
21%
33%
50%
6%
11%
11%
28%
21%
0% 20%
2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Import & other Pumped-storage hydropower and storage batteries
Coal/biomass/ammonia thermal power Gas thermal power, LNG, Hydrogen, flexible
Biomass electricity, garbage & other renewable energy Concentrated solar power, roof, self-consumption
Hydropower(large and small) Wind power, onshore, near shore, offshore
Wind power, onshore, near shore, offshore Hydropower(large and small)
Concentrated solar power, roof, self-consumption Other
Gas thermal power, LNG, Hydrogen, flexible Coal/biomass/ammonia thermal power
Import & other
Source: PDP VIII, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: PDP VIII, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
40,000 900
800 7
30,000 700
600
500 5
20,000
400
300
10,000 3
200
100
0 0 1
2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2/2021
3/2021
5/2021
6/2021
7/2021
8/2021
9/2022
1/2023
10/2021
12/2021
2/2022
3/2022
4/2022
5/2022
7/2022
8/2022
12/2022
3/2023
4/2023
5/2023
6/2023
8/2023
1/2021
11/2021
11/2022
CCGT LNG switching to hydrogen
Domestic gas-fired switching to LNG + hydrogen
CCGT ultilizing new LNG Natural Gas UK (GBP/therm - LHS)
CCGT + Domestic gas-fired power
Henry Hub US (USD/mmbtu - RHS)
Source: PDP VIII, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
*CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Source: EVN, Shinhan Securities Vietnam FIT*: The Feed-in Tariff (FiT) electricity pricing is calculated based on the central exchange
Data as of 08/09/2023 rate of the State Bank of Vietnam as of September 18, 2023.
5.1%
Solar power
10.1%
8.3%
Wind power on-shore
12.1%
10.0%
Wind power off-shore
14.4%
Price for transitional projects FIT price
Source: PDP VIII, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam estimated, Company report
6.0
35.0
5.1 15.1
5.0 30.0
4.0 25.0
20.0 6.5
3.0 8.8
2.3 15.0
1.9 6.4
2.0
1.3 10.0 6.9
1.0 4.8
1.0 0.7 5.0
0.0 0.0
2020 2025 2030 2040 2020 2025 2030 2040
Solar power Wind power on-shore Wind power off-shore Solar power Wind power on-shore Wind power off-shore
Source: PDP VIII, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: PDP VIII, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Power Stock Pick
03
POW, PC1, GEG – Orientation for renewable
electricity development
Key financials 3 Growth Valuation 24F
General Information Stock Price
1H/2023
No. Ticker Industry Capacity Market Cap CP TP * Upside GPM D/E (x) ROA ROE Revenue EPS P/B P/E
(MW) (billionVND) (VND) (VND) (%) (%) (%) (%) (% YoY) (% YoY) (x) (x)
1 VSH Hyropower 356 10,371 43,900 47,650 8.5 66.3 0.9 13.6 26.5 5.4 11.7 1.6 9.3
2 REE Diversified 978 25,422 62,200 72,100 15.9 44.7 0.7 7.7 16.9 11.7 (4.3) 1.2 8.4
3 HDG Renewable 444 8,469 27,700 31,000 11.9 56.5 1.0 5.5 15.2 (5.7) (45.6) 1.1 9.1
4 POW Gas-fired Power 4,208 26,229 11,200 16,250 45.1 10.0 0.8 2.4 4.6 9.2 (42.3) 0.7 10.2
5 NT2 Gas-fired Power 750 6,967 24,200 27,800 14.8 10.6 0.9 9.1 16.1 (7.0) (27.9) 1.6 8.5
6 QTP Coal-fired Power 1200 6,975 15,500 N/A N/A 6.6 0.4 6.9 9.5 177.5 (34.4) 1.0 7.2
7 PPC Coal-fired Power 1040 4,424 13,800 16,600 20.3 3.6 0.1 7.4 8.3 14.8 42.2 0.9 9.1
8 PC1 Power construction 313 8,343 30,850 32,150 4.2 18 1.8 1.2 5.0 (0.4) (98.9) 1.3 12.2
9 GEG Renewable 503 5,050 14,800 17,000 14.8 49.6 1.9 1.3 5.2 (4.4) (57.5) 1.2 19.7
10 PGV Diversified 5983 26,963 24,000 29,400 22.5 11.4 2.4 3.9 14.9 17.6 21.0 1.3 10.9
* Target Price (fair value) for the next 12 months

Source: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Data as of 06/10/2023
Highly mobilized thermal power promotes growth
Investment points:
_ POW is a power generation company with a total designed capacity of 4,208 MW, the second largest in Vietnam after EVN.
Target price (12 months) 16,250 VND Notably, POW's most prominent power plants are the Cà Mau & Nhơn Trạch 1&2 gas-fired power plants, with a combined capacity of
Current price (06/10/23) 11,200VND 2,700 MW. Additionally, hydroelectric plants like Hủa Na and ĐakĐrinh contribute around 8% to POW's electricity output. POW is
one of the enterprises best aligned with the Power development plan VIII during the period of 2022-2030, especially in the field of
Return(%) 45.1% LNG gas-fired power.
VNINDEX 1,154 _ Gas-fired power sector: The expectation is for gas-fired electricity output to increase due to the nationwide electricity demand
Market P/E (x) 236 growth of 7% during the period of 2023-2030, coupled with hydroelectric disadvantages, creating higher opportunities for gas-fired
Marketcap (billion VND) 27,166 power generation. The average selling price will be around 2,032 VND/kWh, only slightly decreasing by 2% due to the continued
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 2,342 high trend in F0 oil prices and increasing mining costs. Overall, revenue from the gas-fired power segment will increase.
Free-float (mil shares) 470 _ Coal-fired power sector: Vũng Áng 1 (600 MW) will be the main driving force for coal-fired power growth in 2023-2024.
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 14,200/8,910
_In the future, the long-term growth momentum of POW will come from the NT3 and NT4 power plants that use LNG with a
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares) 8.67 combined designed capacity of 1,500 MW, expected to be commercialized from 2024 and 2025. Update on progress: POW has
90-day avg. turnover (bn VND) 123 handed over the main EPC contractor for sand filling and piling, but the negotiations for PPA* and GSA* agreements have not yet
PVN 24.9 been finalized. Additionally, POW has signed a consulting contract with PSI to increase its charter capital from VND 23,500 billion to
Major SHDs (%) VND 30,000 billion, and the company has already secured sufficient capital. In addition, on August 31, 2023, Vietcombank signed a
1,154 credit contract worth 4,000 billion to sponsor NT3 and NT4 projects.
Performance 3T 6T 12M _ Risks: (1) Shortage of input gas supply and high prices of gas and coal; (2) Difficulties with EVN, affecting POW's ability to receive
payment for electricity sales; (3) Slow progress in NT3&4 implementation due to pending negotiations for PPA and GSA agreements.
Absolute (%) -14.4 -13.1 -7.6
*PPA: Power Purchase Agreement signed between EVN/EPTC and power plants. *GSA: Gas Sales Agreement between gas seller and
Rel.to VN-Index (%) -.16.9 -22.4 -10.1
gas field owner for supplying gas to the buyer. Specifically, in this case, POW and GAS are negotiating.
1,400 16,000 Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
1,200 14,000 Revenue (bil VND) 29,732 24,561 28,224 31,633 36,571
1,000 12,000 OP (bil VND) 3,371 2,400 2,859 2,902 3,246
10,000 NP (bil VND) 2,365 1,799 2061 1793 2588
800
8,000 EPS (VND) 999 757 871 809 1095
600
6,000
400 BPS (VND) 12,185.7 12,228.6 13,099.6 13,908 15,003
4,000
200 2,000 OPM 11.3 9.8 10.1 9.2 8.9
0 0 NPM 8.0 7.3 7.3 5.7 7
ROE (%) 8.4 6.2 6.9 7 7.8
P/E (x) 13.6 23.1 12.2 13.8 10.2
P/B (x) 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.7
VN Index POW VN EQUITY EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 8.3 4.7 6.6 4.7
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities Vietnam
Data as of 06/10/2023
Power construction benefiting from PDP 8 in mid and long term
Investment points:
Target price (12 months) 32,150 VND
_PC1 is one of the well-established construction companies in the power sector in Vietnam. Currently, renewable energy is one of the three main pillars
Current price (06/10/23) 30,850VND of the company, along with construction, real estate, and mining.
Return(%) 4.2% _Update business results of Q2/2023: PC1 reported a revenue of VND 1,472 billion (-2.5% YoY) and a net loss of VND 26 billion (compared to a net
profit of VND 64 billion of Q2/2022). The reasons for this decline were a significant decrease in hydroelectric production and a high interest expense
VNINDEX 1,154
of VND 219 billion (+36% YoY). In the first half of 2023, revenue reached VND 2,977 billion (-0.4% YoY), and the net loss was VND 11 billion compared
Market P/E (x) 236 to a net profit of VND 197 billion in 1H2022.
Marketcap (billion VND) 8,356 _Construction Segment: Benefiting in the medium term from Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8), due to the demand for high voltage transmission line
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 270 construction and renewable power plant construction. PC1 indicated that the value of contracts transferred to the EPC block this year is around VND
Free-float (mil shares) 149 4,000 billion, with plans to sign new contracts worth about VND 5,000 billion. Estimated EPC segment revenue for 2023 is over VND 4,600 billion.
52-weekhigh/low (VND) 32,900/11,800 _Power Generation Segment: Hydroelectric output is expected to decrease in 2023 due to the El Nino phase, with an increase projected for 2025 as
2.9 the El Nino phase ends and the Bảo Lạc A hydropower plant is expected to start operating. Meanwhile, the wind power segment is expected to remain
90-day avg.trading volume(mil shares)
stable.
_Mining Segment: Approximately 38,000 tons are expected to be exported in 2023, with the first batch in Q3/2023. Estimated revenue for 2023 is
Trịnh Văn Tuấn 21.4 around VND 1,000 billion, with a net profit of VND 160 billion.
Major SHDs (%)
_Industrial Real Estate: The Yên Phong IIA project in Bắc Ninh is expected to be fully occupied within 4 years, with leasing starting in the second half of
2023. The Yên Lệnh Port Cluster in Hà Nam has been approved for detailed planning at a 1/500 scale and is preparing for site clearance. Additionally,
Performance 3T 6T 12M PC1 aims to achieve an annual revenue of VND 650 billion and a net profit of VND 110-120 billion from the Nomura Industrial Park in 2023.
Absolute (%) 13.6 7.7 7.7 _Residential Real Estate: PC1 currently has 4 ongoing projects with incomplete legal procedures, and an estimated revenue of VND 2,500 billion and a
net profit of VND 400 billion are expected to be recognized according to the schedule from 2023 to 2027. Among them, the Gia Lâm project is
Rel.to VN-Index (%) 11 -1.6 5.2 expected to receive investment approval in June 2023.
_Risks: (1) Legal risks of projects; (2) Diversification risks; (3) Slowdown in the construction segment due to the stagnation of renewable energy projects;
(4) Higher-than-expected financial costs; (5) Nickel mining risk subject to fluctuations in LME nickel prices.
1,400 35,000
1,200 30,000 Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
1,000 25,000 Revenue (bil VND) 6,679 9,828 8,358 9,601 10,626
OP (bil VND) 823 859 1,318 1,403 1,623
800 20,000
NP (bil VND) 513 695 460 471 623
600 15,000
EPS (VND) 1,943 2,121 1,519 1,960 2,530
400 10,000 BPS (VND) 15,113.1 17,384.1 18,903.1 20,863 23,393.1
200 5,000 OPM 12.3 8.7 15.8 14.6 15.3
0 0 NPM 7.7 7.1 5.5 4.9 5.9
ROE (%) 13.8 14.9 8.4 8.4 11.4
P/E (x) 8.3 16.1 13.3 15.7 12.2
P/B (x) 1.1 2.0 1.1 1.5 1.3
VN Index PC1 VN EQUITY EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 14.3 8.2 10 8
Data as of 06/10/2023
New projects driving growth
Investment points
_GEG began as a hydropower company and has gradually transformed into one of the largest companies in the electricity sector with the
Target price (12 months) 17,000 VND total capacity in renewable energy of 503 MW. This includes 81 MW from hydropower, 292 MW from solar farms and rooftop solar, and
130 MW from wind power. GEG's power plants are strategically located, well-suited for various types of renewable energy. The company
Current price (06/10/23) 14,800VND benefits significantly from its focus on developing the renewable energy sector, particularly wind power, as outlined in Power
Return(%) 14.8% Development Plan VIII.
_In 2023, GEG plans to achieve a revenue of VND 2,918 billion (+39% YoY) and a net profit of VND 155 billion (-58% YoY). Additionally,
VNINDEX 1,154 GEG forecasts financial expenses and other costs to reach VND 1,107 billion, a substantial increase compared to the VND 657 billion in
Market P/E (x) 236 financial expenses in 2022.
Marketcap (billion VND) 5,426 _Update business results of Q2/2023: GEG reported a near VND 480 billion revenue (-5% YoY), of which electricity sales accounted for
Outstanding shares (mil shares) 341 VND 475 billion (99%, +7% YoY) due to the Tân Phú Đông 1 power plant officially starting operations in June 2023, compensating for the
Free-float (mil shares) 23 decrease in hydropower production. Net profit was VND 8.7 billion (-71% YoY) due to increased financial expenses (mainly interest
17,830/8,377 expenses), reaching over VND 213 billion (+38% YoY) with the operation of the new power plant. For the first half of 2023, revenue
52-weekhigh/low (VND)
reached VND 1,027 billion (-4% YoY), and net profit was VND 111 billion (-48% YoY), achieving 35% of the revenue plan and 72% of the
profit plan for 2023.
_The Tan Phu Dong 1 wind power plant (120 MW) and the Đức Huệ 2 solar power project (50 MW) are expected to drive strong growth for
35.1 GEG in late 2023 - 2024. The Tân Phú Đông 1 wind power plant is projected to have an average output of around 293 kWh/year. The Đức
AVH Pte..Ltd
Major SHDs (%) Huệ 2 project (49 MW) is expected to start operating in early 2024 with an anticipated output of 73 kWh/year. GEG has almost completed
1,154 important legal steps for this project.
_With a merger and acquisition strategy, GEG is actively seeking completed legal projects.
_Risks: (1) El Nino-related risks leading to reduced hydropower production; (2) Legal risks for incomplete projects; (3) Interest rate
Absolute (%) 10.2 20.3 1.1 fluctuations that could lead to higher-than-expected financial costs. Due to the large capital requirements of initial renewable energy
Rel.to VN-Index (%) 7.7 11.0 -1.4 projects, GEG relies heavily on borrowing, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.84x; (4) Pricing mechanisms for renewable energy projects can
be difficult to predict.
1,400 20,000 Year 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
1,200 Revenue (bil VND) 1,493 1,381 2,093 2,164 2,477
1,000 15,000
OP (bil VND) 645 653 851 780 830
800 NP (bil VND) 257 283 316 171 288
10,000
600 EPS (VND) 858 807 830 491 826
400 5,000 BPS (VND) 9,404.4 9,897.5 10,727.7 11,218.5 12,044.5
200 OPM 43.2 47.3 40.6 41.6 41.5
0 0 NPM 17.2 20.5 15.1 9.9 8.5
ROE (%) 9.6 8.2 5.6 3.6 5.2
P/E (x) 19.2 25.9 18.2 21.8 19.7
P/B (x) 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.2
VN Index GEG VN EQUITY EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 13.4 10.8 11.9 10.3
Data as of 06/10/2023
Shinhan Investment Network
SEOUL SHANGHAI
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Shinhan Investment Tower Shanghai Representative Office
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Research Center – Shinhan Securities Vietnam

2022 2023F 2024F 12

Central Bank Policy rates* (%p.a)

China India Japan Korea US Euro area

Source: BIS, Shinhan Securities Vietnam – *Monthly data, end of period

Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Export (USD million) Import (USD million) Import-Export turnover/GDP

Total retail sales (Accumulated) Unit:Billion VND

Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source: Fred, SBV, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Fed fund rate (%)

SBV refinancing rate (%)

Source: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

P/E cơ bản PE Trung bình -1std +1std

Source:: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnan – Data as of 03/10/2023

Source: FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Earnings yield (E/P) P/E 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Service Growth (%)

Credit growth Credit growth Credit growth Credit growth

Agriculture, Forestry and

Transportation, warehousing 368,060 12% 8.66%

Activities of the Communist Party and socio-political organizations; State

Education and training 274,192 10% 4.34%

Activities of hiring for work in households, producing physical products and

Total GDP 7,268,043 4.24%

Source: GSO, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Total GDP 7,268,043 4.24%

GDP of Industrial sector and construction in 9M2023

Construction 436,615 16% 6.17%

Source: Fiinpro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

5.73% 6.7% 9.7% 5.2%

Government and State Bank debt in Q1.2023 (VND bn)

Growth (ytd-%) Average growth in 6M/2023 at around 7.89%

Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

NIM-TTM -(Right) NIM as of Q4.2022 NIM as of Q1.2023

Source: Fiinpro, Financial statement of banks, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

TCB 11,272 22,000 51%

Source: Bloomberg Consensus, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Profit before tax (VNDbn) Growth (% yoy) CIR TTM (%)

Source: Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source: Bloomberg updated on October 06, 2023, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source: Bloomberg, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Real Estate industry contributes a large proportion to total credit and

2023 mainly due to the legal and capital issues.

Source:FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

10% 23,267 10% 12%

Source:FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source:FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source:State Bank of Vietnam, FiinPro, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Source:Ministry of Construction, State Bank of Vietnam, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Discount rate 4.5% -> 3.0% 6.0%

Source:SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam Source:SBV, Shinhan Securities Vietnam

Vietcombank 11.0-12.0 70 15 8.0 70 20

Shinhan bank 10.9 70 30 8.0 70 30

Techcombank 10.6 70 35 8.5 70 35

600 26.4% 30.0% 27.5% 30.0%

400 358 20.0% 15.6% 1.58 20.0%