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    Forecast Study Problems

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    emirdurmaz200131
    The document contains examples and problems related to forecasting techniques including moving averages, exponential smoothing, and seasonal adjustment. It includes steps to calculate forecasts using different alpha values in exponential smoothing and compares the results. It also demonstrates deseasonalizing a time series and using the results to forecast the demand in an upcoming time period.

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    Forecast Study Problems

    Uploaded by

    emirdurmaz200131
    16 views5 pages
    The document contains examples and problems related to forecasting techniques including moving averages, exponential smoothing, and seasonal adjustment. It includes steps to calculate forecasts using different alpha values in exponential smoothing and compares the results. It also demonstrates deseasonalizing a time series and using the results to forecast the demand in an upcoming time period.

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    The document contains examples and problems related to forecasting techniques including moving averages, exponential smoothing, and seasonal adjustment. It includes steps to calculate forecasts using different alpha values in exponential smoothing and compares the results. It also demonstrates deseasonalizing a time series and using the results to forecast the demand in an upcoming time period.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    16 views5 pages

    Forecast Study Problems

    Uploaded by

    emirdurmaz200131
    The document contains examples and problems related to forecasting techniques including moving averages, exponential smoothing, and seasonal adjustment. It includes steps to calculate forecasts using different alpha values in exponential smoothing and compares the results. It also demonstrates deseasonalizing a time series and using the results to forecast the demand in an upcoming time period.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 5

    Forecasting Chapter Study Problems

    a) and b)

    et
    Forecast Period Actual

    (86 + 75)/2 = 80.5 3 72 +8.5


    (75 + 72)/2 = 73.5 4 83 -9.5
    etc 77.5 5 132 -54.5
    107.5 6 65 42.5
    98.5 7 110 -11.5
    87.5 8 90 -2.5
    100.0 9 67 +33.0
    78.5 10 92 -13.5
    79.5 11 98 -18.5
    95.0 12 73 +22.0

    c) MAD = (216)/10 = 21.6


    MSE = (7175)/10 = 717.5

    MAPE = 100 1 ei  = 25.61


    
    n
     D 
    i
    Ft = Dt-1 + (1-)Ft-1

    a) FFeb = (.15)(23.3) + (.85)(25) = 24.745

    FMarch = (.15)(72.3) + (.85)(24.745) = 31.88

    FApr = (.15)(30.3) + (.85)(31.88) = 31.64

    FMay = (.15)(15.5) + (.85)(31.63) = 29.22

    b) FFeb = (.40)(23.3) + (.60)(25) = 24.32

    FMarch = 43.47

    FApr = 38.20

    FMay = 29.12

    c) Compute MSE for February through April:

    Month Error (a) Error (b)


    ( = .15) ( = .40)

    Feb 47.45 47.88


    Mar 1.56 13.17
    Apr 16.13 22.70
    MSE = 838.04 993.74

     = .15 gave a better forecast

    a) Week MA(3) Forecast

    4 17.67
    5 20.33
    6 28.67
    7 22.67
    8 21.67

    b) and c

    Week ES(.15) Demand MA(3) |err| |err|

    4 17.67 22 17.67 4.33 4.33


    5 18.32 34 20.33 15.68 13.67
    6 20.67 12 28.67 8.67 16.67
    7 19.37 19 22.67 0.37 3.67
    8 19.32 23 21.67 3.68 1.33

    6.547540 7.934
    MAD-ES MAD-MA

    Based on these results, ES(.15) had a lower MAD over the five weeks

    d) It is the same as the exponential smoothing forecast made in week 6 for the demand in
    week 7, which is 19.37 from part c).
    c) Predict the demand for the first quarter of year- 4 by using MA-6.

    a)

    Period (quarter) Demand


    1 12 0.268657 S1 0.313433
    2 25 0.559701 S2 0.761194
    3 76 1.701493 S3 1.723881
    4 52 1.164179 S4 1.201493
    5 16 0.358209
    6 32 0.716418
    7 71 1.589552
    8 62 1.38806
    9 14 0.313433
    10 45 1.007463
    11 84 1.880597
    12 47 1.052239

    Average= 44.66667
    b)

    Period
    (quarter) Demand Desasonal
    1 12 38.285714
    2 25 32.843137
    3 76 44.08658
    4 52 43.279503
    5 16 51.047619
    6 32 42.039216
    7 71 41.186147
    8 62 51.602484
    9 14 44.666667
    10 45 59.117647
    11 84 48.727273
    12 47 39.118012

    c)

    Period
    (quarter) Desasonal
    1 38.28571
    2 32.84314
    3 44.08658
    4 43.2795
    5 51.04762
    6 42.03922
    7 41.18615
    8 51.60248
    9 44.66667
    10 59.11765
    11 48.72727
    12 39.11801

    13 47.40304

    Demand = (47,403) x 0,3134 =14,85

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