Ma Final 2019.1
Ma Final 2019.1
Ma Final 2019.1
1 Payments Business Dynamics – Monetary Flow 2 Total Paid Value (TPV) in Brazil (R$ Bn)
Debit transactions
8%
Credit transactions CAGR: 11.3
&'' &''
1,555
1,377
1,137 1,205
907 1,033
!+0
! + #$
()*'+,-.)/' &'' 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
! + 20
!+0
!1
48%
36%
32%
23%
13%
9% 10%
Transaction
1% 7%
2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E
Carrier Retail
Cielo Getnet Stone Rede PagSeguro
Although the payment industry is going through a significant growth in volume, it is becoming less interesting to operate.
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
Net MDR Interchange Fee Cielo Getnet Stone Rede PagSeguro
3 Regulation and Price War
Top Players Take Rate Break Down (2018)
Commoditization
Due to commoditization tendencies, companies are reducing
considerably their MDR fees. 1,68% 1,69%
1,53% 1,59%
0.39% 0.38%
0.38%
Changes in Regulation 0.85%
Possible change in regulation would drop payment term in Credit 0.36% 0.44% 0.45%
Operations to D + 2 days.
Cielo
Prepayment
Getnet
Rental Fees StoneMDR Rede
Changes in regulation and in competitive dynamics could compromise the sector’s financial health.
1 Industry Dynamics
2 Expected Market Growth for 2019 3 Retail Software Market Share Evolution
% YoY Growth by Revenue % of Total Industry Revenue
41% 41%
67% 64% 62%
19% 17%
13.2%
10.5% 9.3%
7.6%
4.9% 4.9% 33% 36% 38% 40% 42%
3.9%
Both the payment and retail software industries are critical parts of the operation of the retail sector, and making good use of these tools could be a major
competitive advantage for retailers.
Stone has been a top player in terms of growth in client base and in customer satisfaction metrics, both due to an extremely client-focused strategy.
Stone has been a top player in terms of growth in client base and in customer satisfaction metrics, both due to an extremely client-focused strategy.
Linx develops softwares mainly focused in small and medium businesses, and offers solutions to a great part of retailers’ management software needs.
4
SG&A, R&D and Revenue Synergies
The combined company could boost its revenue by the cross-selling of its software solutions. Besides
that, there’ll be a significant impact from SG&A and R&D synergies as well.
12%
29%
59% 1.8%
1.4%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Micro Bussiness Small Medium Bussiness Large Bussiness SMB Large Business
Rede Cielo Stone Getnet
3 Stone and Linx Client Base Profile 4 TPV per Company (R$ Bn)
Stone’s TPV by Segment (2018) Linx’s Revenue by Segment (2019) 2023E
75% 90%
948
557 511 125
25% 10% 386 376
SMB Large Business SMB Large Business Cielo Rede NewCo** Stone GetNet Linx**
The combination of the companie’s client base could have major impacts in the proforma TPV and market share in a decisive moment for establishing
Stone as an important player in the sector.
$100 m–$249.9 m $250 m–$499.9 m $500 m–$999.9 m $1 bn+ 2015 2016 2017 2018
The Pro-Forma company could offer a more interesting joint value proposition for the retailer. Therefore, the company would benefit of lower payments
churn and would boost its transaction volume.
%
R 80 15%
CAG
33%
268
234
201
131
161 67%
103
82 83 88 85%
4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Penetrated market Unpenetrated market
5% Prepayment
Sharing the companies’ client base could have major impacts on software growth, without losing strategic focus on small and medium businesses.
Sharing the Pro-Forma client base to its software branch would increase the company’s performance even further.
NewCo
NewCo (With Estimated Δ Earnings
Stone Linx (Without Δ(%)
Synergies) Synergies Post-Taxes
Synergies)
Sales (190.2) (111.0) (301.2) (3.7%) (290.1) 11.1 7.3
G&A (208.1) (218.4) (426.5) (20.5%) (339.1) 87.4 57.7
R&D (44.8) (73.5) (118.3) (10.0%) (106.5) 11.8 7.8
OpEx (443.0) (402.9) (845.9) (13.0%) (735.6) 110.3 72.8
Thanks to Stone’s endeavor in software development and Linx’s entry in the payment industry, a significative amount of R&D and SG&A expenses could be
spared.
( Δ Earnings:
143.6 MM
Δ Earnings :
65.0 MM
Δ Earnings :
7.8 MM
) 31.04x 6,717 MM
P/E FWD**
P/E FWD**
30.04 1,749.32 1,967.99 2,186.65 2,405.32 2,623.98 30.04 3,450.72 3,882.06 4,313.41 4,744.75 5,176.09
31.04 1,807.56 2,033.50 2,259.45 2,485.39 2,711.33 31.04 3,565.60 4,011.30 4,457.01 4,902.71 5,348.41
32.04 1,865.79 2,099.01 2,332.24 2,565.46 2,798.68 32.04 3,680.48 4,140.54 4,600.61 5,060.67 5,520.73
33.04 1,924.02 2,164.53 2,405.03 2,645.53 2,886.03 33.04 3,795.36 4,269.78 4,744.20 5,218.63 5,693.05
Once achieved all of estimated synergies, the deal would have a high NPV for the proforma company.
1 Merger Model*
Transaction's Assumptions (R$MM) Valuation (R$MM) Stone Linx Adjust. NewCo
Stock Price Linx (R$) 33.9 Earnings 307.56 71.10 - 378.66
Premium 20% P/E FWD 43.0x 45.2x - -
Price Paid per Share 40.7
Equity Value 35,636.9 5,384.9 - 41,021.8
Equity Value Acquired (R$MM) 6,461.9
Net Debt (232.5) (157.86) 1,938.56 1,548.21
Price Paid per Share in Cash (30%) 12.2
Price Paid per Share in Stock (70%) 28.5 Net Debt/EBITDA - - 2.19x
Stock Exchange Ratio (Stone/Linx) 0.22 Enterprise Value 35,404.4 5,227.0 - 42,570.0
Total Debt Issued (R$) 1,938.6 EV/EBITDA FWD 22.77x 24.70x - -
Ownership Structure Stone Linx NewCo
(Thousands of shares) Shares A Shares B % total Ações % total Adjust. Shares A Shares B % total
Stone Founders - 68,490.84 24.71% - - - - 68,490.84 21.92%
Madrone Partners 6,209.53 23,129.74 10.58% - - - 6,209.53 23,129.74 9.39%
Genesis Asset - - - 13,988.18 8.81% 3,101.34 3,101.34 - 0.99%
Linx Founders - - - 29,328.30 18.47% 6,502.43 6,502.43 - 2.08%
Others 119,487.91 59,861.98 64.71% 115,490.37 72.72% 25,605.57 145,093.48 59,861.98 65.61%
Total 125,697.44 151,482.56 100.00% 158,806.85 100.00% 35,209.34 160,906.78 151,482.56 100.00%
The transaction structure is based on 30% cash and 70% on stock, with a premium of 19% on the Equity Value.
Upsides 30% Cash 70% Equity Upsides 60% Cash 40% Equity
Earnings 216.39 Earnings 216.39
Perceived Multiple 31 Perceived Multiple 31
Total Synergies (Equity Value) 6,716.78 Total Synergies (Equity Value) 6,716.78
Equity Value (Linx) 5,384.90 Equity Value (Linx) 5,384.90
Premium Paid 20.0% Premium Paid 20.0%
Premium (R$) 1,076.98 Premium (R$) 1,076.98
Net Synergies NewCo 5,639.80 Net Synergies NewCo 5,639.80
Participation in NewCo (Linx Shareholders) 11.3% Participation in NewCo (Linx Shareholders) 6.8%
Linx's Shareholders Synergies 635.22 Linx's Shareholders Synergies 381.39
Additional Equity Value (Linx) 1,712.20 Additional Equity Value (Linx) 1,458.37
Participation in NewCo (Stone Shareholders) 88.7% Participation in NewCo (Stone Shareholders) 93.2%
Stone's Shareholders Synergies 5,004.58 Stone's Shareholders Synergies 5,258.41
Additional Equity Value (Stone) 5,004.58 Additional Equity Value (Stone) 5,258.41
Upside Stone 14.04% Upside Stone 14.76%
Upside Linx 31.80% Upside Linx 27.08%
Merger Model – 60% Cash / 40% Stock
Total 125,697.44 151,482.56 100.00% 158,806.85 100.00% 20,119.62 145,817.06 151,482.56 100.00%
Accretion/Dilution Analysis (60% Cash / 40% Stock)
Others 119,487.91 59,861.98 64.71% 115,490.37 72.72% 33,531.11 153,019.01 59,861.98 65.85%
Total 125,697.44 151,482.56 100.00% 158,806.85 100.00% 46,107.47 171,804.91 151,482.56 100.00%
Accretion/Dillution Analysis – 100% Stock