Sustainablebackground

Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
EML 4450/EML 5451: Energy Conversion Systems I
Notes prepared by: Prof. A. Krothapalli
“f “The purpose of education is to bring out the best in you”

Mahatma Gandhi
Course Description
This course will present the challenge of changing the global

energy system so that it addresses the objective of greatly
reducing the dependence on the finite fossil energy sources and
move to the environmentally sustainable* energy sources. The
emphasis will be on greenhouse gas emissions free energy
production strategies, including renewable energy – solar, wind
and biomass.
*Sustainable development: ability of humanity to ensure that it meets the

needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generation to
meet their own needs
Course Objectives
• To provide an understanding of the concept of sustainable

future.
• To provide critical and thorough introduction to the subject
of energy, its use and its environmental effects, especially
global warming.
• To provide an understanding of the role of thermodynamic
principles in energy conversion.
• To introduce the major methods of direct energy conversion
– thermoelectricity, photovoltaics, thermionics and fuel
cells.
• To provide a survey of renewable energy systems, solar,
wind and biomass.
Course Outline
• Energy systems in sustainable future
• The science of global warming
• The solar strategy
• Solar radiation characteristics
• Thermodynamic fundamentals for energy conversion systems
• Essentials of quantum physics
• Thermoelectric generators
• Photovoltaic generators
• Thermionic generators
• Fuel cells
• Other modes of direct energy conversion
• Renewable energy sources
Solar energy
Wind energy
Other energy
• Socio-economic assessment of energy supply systems
Text Book and References

Text Book:
Renewable Energy by Brent Sorensen, Third edition, Academic Press, 2004, ISBN: 0-12-
656153-2
References:
1. Direct Energy Conversion, Stanley W. Angrist, Fourth Edition, Allyn and Bacon, 1982.
2. Energy and the Environment, James A. Fay & Dan S. Golomb, Oxford, 2002.
3. Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems, Gilbert M. Masters, Wiley Interscience,
2004. (used as a text book for the follow on spring semester class)
4. Fundamentals of Thermodynamics, Sonntag, Borgnakke & Van Wylen, 5th Edition, John
Wiley & Sons, Inc,1998.
5. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes, Duffie & Beckmann, 2nd Edition, Wiley Interscience,
1991
6. Wind Energy Explained, Manwell, McGowan & Rogers, Wiley, 2002
7. Fuel Cell Systems, Larminie & Dicks, 2nd edition, Wiley. 2003.
8. The Solar Economy, Hermann Scheer, Earthscan, 2002.
What kind of a world would you like to live in?
Peaceful
Joyful
Loving
If you think that the world is not

this blissful - what are you doing
about it?
your work towards sustainable energy
will in some part help to achieve such a
civilized world
Map of Six Basic Country Groupings
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Other Country Groupings

World Population
World Population
Population rankings of major

world regions continue to shift
in favor of developing regions
World Population
Good News:
The pace of global population
growth is on decline
To stabilize or reduce
population:
Increase women’s
health
Education
employment
Women as equal participants in
all aspects of society
World Gross Domestic Product
History Projections
80
High Economic Growth
Case
Trillion 1997 U.S. Dollars
60 Reference Case
40
Low Economic Growth
Case
20
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2004

Top Ten GDP Countries

World Gross Domestic Product
Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2004

Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic

Product (% per year)
World Marketed Energy Consumption
History Projections
800
High Economic Growth
Case
600 Reference Case

Quadrillion Btu
400
Low Economic Growth
Case
200
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year

World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region
History Projections
300
45%
43%
250
Industrialized
200 Share of
Quadrillion Btu
World
Total
150
Developing
100
12%
50
EE/FSU
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year

Energy Intensity by Region
History Projections
70
Thousand Btu per 1997 U.S. Dollar of GDP
60
50
EE/FSU
40
30 Developing
20
10
Industrialized
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year

World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type
History Projections
250
39%
200
Quadrillion Btu
Oil 25%
150
Natural Gas 23%
100
Coal
50 Renewables 8%
5%
Nuclear
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year

World Oil Consumption and Production
Consumption Production 2004 Production:

NY Times, 8/15/04
Other Other
140.0 EE/FSU
Developing Asia
Industrialized 120.8 OPEC 120.6
120.0
Million Barrels per Day
100.0 91.5 91.1
80.0 77.1 77.0
60.0 QuickTime™ and a

TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
40.0
20.0
0.0
2001 2010 2025 2001 2010 2025

Persian Gulf Oil Productive Capacity
10.2
Saudi Arabia
22.5
3.7
Iran
4.9
2.8
Iraq
6.6
United Arab 2.7

Emirates 5.2
2001
2.4 2025
Kuwait
5.0
0.6
Qatar
0.8
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Million Barrels per Day

World Oil Reserves by Country (1/1/04)
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Venezuela
Russia
Libya
Nigeria
United States
China
World Total:
Mexico
1,266 Billion Barrels
Qatar
Algeria
Norway
Kazakhstan
Brazil
Azerbaijan
Oman
Rest of World
0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Billion Barrels
Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal,

Vol. 100, No. 49 (December 22, 2003), pp. 46-47.
Logistic Equation
Q: Cumulative production
Q’: Annual production
Qo :Ultimate production; tm: Year of peak production

US Cumulative Oil Production
Theoretical prediction
Data
US Annual Oil Production
L is based on logistics equation

G is based on Gaussian distribution
Source: Prediction of world peak oil production, Seppo A. Korpela, Ohio State University, 2003
World Oil Production
World Oil Cumulative Discovery and Production

Annual World Oil Production
World Oil Production - Hubbert’s Method
World oil production through the year 2000 is shown as heavy dots.
Hubbert’s method is used to obtain most likely future production. The
dashed lines show the probable production rates if the ultimate
discoverable oil is 1.8 trillion barrels - the lower curve or 2.1 trillion
barrels - the upper curve
Source: Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton
Univ. Press, 2001.
Estimated Duration of Crude Oil and Natural

Gas Reserves
Source: The Solar Economy by Hermann Scheer, Earthscan, 2002.

World Oil Prices

History Projections
70
Low Oil Price Case “International Energy Agency warned
60 Reference Case that if oil prices remained at $35 a
barrel, or $10 above their 2001 levels,
2002 U.S. Dollars per Barrel
High Oil Price Case that would slash at least half a

50 percentage point from world G.D.P. the
next year”
40 NY times - August 11, 2004 - Global oil
demand expected to exceed forecasts,
30 Report says
20
$45 a Barrel will reduce the
world GDP by 1% from
10
2001 levels (~ $450 Billion)
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001 2010 2015 2020 2025

Natural Gas Consumption by Region
2001 2010 2020 2025

200
176
154 151
150
134
Trillion Cubic Feet
114
105
100 90
50
0
IEO2004IEO2003 IEO2004IEO2003 IEO2004IEO2003
Industrialized EE/FSU Developing

World Natural Gas Reserves by Region

(1/1/04)
Middle East
EE/FSU
Africa
Developing Asia
North America
World Total:
Central & South America 6,076 Trillion Cubic Feet
Western Europe
Industrialized Asia
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Trillion Cubic Feet
Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production," Oil & Gas Journal,
Vol. 100, No. 49, December 22, 2003, pp. 46-47
World Coal Consumption by Region
3.5
1980
3 2001
2025
2.5
Billion Short Tons
1.5
0.5
0
Industrialized Countries EE/FSU China and India Other Developing
Countries
World Recoverable Coal Reserves in 2001
United States
FSU
China
Australia
India Subbituminous and Lignite
Bituminous and Anthracite
Germany
South Africa
Yugoslavia
World Total:
Poland 1,083 Billion Short Tons
Rest of World
0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Billion Short Tons
World 2025 Consumption ~ 7 billion short tones/year

Coal will last at least 150 years
Summary - Fossil Fuel Future
Dwindling reserves versus worldwide growth in demand will lead to

energy prices beyond consumer’s ability to pay - leads to political
tension and violence.
Conventional oil and gas reserves will probably be exhausted
between 2030 and 2050.
Coal is the worst possible fossil fuel (most polluting of the fossil fuels
and the one that produces the greatest amount of the greenhouse
gas CO2 per unit energy), but the world has at least a 150 year
supply of coal.
Conclusion: Sustainable future is not possible if we continue to rely
on fossil fuel for energy. Therefore, a massive and immediate shift
towards renewable sources is inevitable.
Not a New Idea
“Within a few generations at most, some other

energy than that of combustion of fuel must be
relied upon to do a fair share of the work of the
civilized world.”
Robert H. Thurston - 1901 in the Smithsonian

Institution annual report.
Energy Systems in Sustainable Future

Summary from Lecture 1 - Fossil Fuel Future
Dwindling reserves versus worldwide growth in demand will lead to
energy prices beyond consumer’s ability to pay - leads to political
tension and violence.
Conventional oil and gas reserves will probably be exhausted
between 2030 and 2050.
Coal is the worst possible fossil fuel (most polluting of the fossil fuels
and the one that produces the greatest amount of the greenhouse
gas CO2 per unit energy), but the world has at least a 150 year
supply of coal.
Conclusion: Sustainable future is not possible if we continue to rely
on fossil fuel for energy. Therefore, a massive and immediate shift
towards renewable sources is inevitable.
Energy and Sustainability

Economy Energy has strong relationship with three pillars
of sustainable development.
Sustainability requires secure, reliable and
affordable supply of energy.
Sustainable energy future is not static - it must
be continuously redefined and rebalanced with
Sustainable new technical solutions and technologies.
development
Sustainability demands that we seek to change
present trends.
Change the structure of energy sector, behavior
Environment Social Development in our societies and economics
Challenge: To fuel worldwide economic growth with secure and reliable

energy supply without despoiling our environment
Source: IEA statement on sustainable development at the world summit on sustainable development, Johannesburg, 2002
Per Capita Energy Consumption and GDP
Affluence
Japan
France United
States.
United Kingdom
South Korea
Mexico Poland
El Salvador Russia
China
Poverty Bangladesh
Burkina Faso
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2;
Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars.
Per Capita Energy Consumption and HDI
Developing countries
Per capita energy consumption is
less than 1 toe
HDI: Human development index - a composite measure of development based

indicators: life expectancy, educational level and per capita gross domestic product. Each
data point corresponds to a country. Modest increase in PCEC can lead to marked
improvements in the quality of life in the developing nations.
Source: Alan D. Pasternak, Global energy futures and human development: A frame work for analysis, UCRL-
ID-140773, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, U.S. DOE, 2003
GDP Growth for Selected Countries
GDP growth will bring urban shift in population

India: 28% in 2000
41% in 2035
Energy Units and Conversions

BTU : the amount of heat necessary to raise one pound of water by one degree F
Joule: the force of one Newton acting through one meter

1 BTU=1055 J
1 kWh = 3.6 x106 J
1 calorie = 4.184 J
1 Quad = 1015 BTU
1 hp = 745.7 watts
Energy Content of Fuels:
Coal 25 x106 BTU/ton
Crude oil 5.6 x106 BTU/barrel
Oil 5.78 x106 BTU/barrel = 1700 kWh
Gasoline 5.6 x106 BTU/barrel (a barrel is 42 gallons)
1970
Liquid Natural 1980
Gas 1990
4.2 x106 BTU/barrel 2000 2010 2020
Natural Gas 1030 BTU/ft3
terra, T: 1012; giga, G = 109
US Energy
Consumption
Effects of conservation and

improvements in energy efficient
consumer and industrial and
transportation sectors
Rate of Change in World Energy

World Primary Energy
Source: Arthur Rosenfeld, commissioner, California Energy Commission

Role of Technology

Role of Technology

Energy Usage Sectors
• Residential
• Commercial
• Industry
Iron and steel, Chemicals and petrochemicals,
Cement and other industries
• Transportation
Road, Rail and aviation
Energy Sources
• Oil
• Coal
• Natural Gas
• Nuclear
• Biomass
• Renewable Energy
Wind, Hydro, Solar Etc.
US Primary Energy Consumption by Sector - 1999
45
40
35 Nuclear
Renew ables
30
Quads/Yr
Petroleum -- Imported
25 Petroleum -- Domestic
Nat. Gas -- Imported
20
Nat. Gas -- Domestic
15 Coal
10
1970 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Residential Com m ercial Industrial Transportation
Energy Use by Sector
USA
India
Energy Consumption by Sector

Sector China (%) United States (%) India (%)
Industry 40 25 27
Transportation 11 40 9
Agriculture 3 1 2
Commercial & 14 13 1
public services
Residential 29 17 58
Non energy use 3 4 3
1 Mtoe: amount of energy released when one million

tones of crude oil is burnt=41.868x1015 J
Source: IEA Key World Statistics - 2003
Energy Consumption by Fuel Type

Fuel Consumption by Sector
Oil
Gas
Coal
World Electricity Consumption by Sector

Retail Prices ($) in selected Countries
Country Heavy Fuel Automoti Unleaded Electricity Electricity Natural

Oil for ve Diesel premium For For gas for
Industry oil (liter) (liter) Industry Household Industry
(tonne) (kWh) s (kWh) (107 kcal
GCV*)
USA 174.48 0.380 0.381 0.0470 0.0830 176.27
France 189.70 0.665 1.033 0.0368 0.1045 187.27
Japan 219.42 0.518 0.829 0.1426 0.2144 406.4
India 309.58 0.416 0.613 0.0801 0.0388 ------
*GCV: Gross Caloric Value

Energy Use for Electricity Generation
2001
History
Projections
2010
2015
Oil
2020 Natural Gas
Coal
2025 Nuclear
Renewables
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent of Total
Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation

Energy Consumption and Generation
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

World at Night from Space
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Urban Population Growth
Annual increments of the world

population and the urban population
Developing World
Rising net income will propel consumer demand for automobiles -
Effects oil consumption
More money - more travel

everywhere
Electricity Consumption:
Only 50% rural households have access in India
Power for all by 2012 in India
US Petroleum use in Transportation
30 Domestic Petroleum Usage
25 Today
Millions of Barrels per Day
20
15
10
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Actual: Annual Energy Review 2000 Tbls 1.2, 5.1 and 5.12
Forecast: Annual Energy Outlook 2002 Tbls 7 and 11
Split between Autos and Lt Truck: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 21 Tbl 2.6
US Petroleum use in Transportation Sector
30 Domestic Petroleum Usage
25 Today
Millions of Barrels per Day
20
15
10
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
World Oil Consumption
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Demand for Oil in China

Oil Dependency
Have Oil Use Oil
Saudi Arabia 26% U.S. 26%
Iraq 11% Japan 7%
Kuwait 10% China 6%
Iran 9% Germany 4%
UAE 8% Russia 3%
Venezuela 6% S. Korea 3%
Russia 5% France 3%
Mexico 3% Italy 3%
Libya 3% Mexico 3%
China 3% Brazil 3%
Nigeria 2% Canada 3%
U.S. 2% India 3%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), August 2002

Summary
45
40
35 Nuclear
Renew ables
30
Quads/Yr
Petroleum -- Imported
25 Petroleum -- Domestic
Nat. Gas -- Imported
20
Nat. Gas -- Domestic
15 Coal
10
0
Residential Com m ercial Industrial Transportation
Immediate shift in ways to generate electricity and fuel

type for transportation
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Lead to reductions in coal and petroleum use
CO2 Emissions
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Energy Demand Scenarios
Transportation and Commercial energy usage are expected to increase

around the world.
Transportation (especially personal) is expected to grow rapidly in
developing countries and the proportion of energy in the residential
sector will fall.
Electricity usage is expected to grow world wide with developing
nations taking the lead.
Technology, economic conditions, energy prices and government
legislation will affect the long term predictions.
Climate Change & Global Warming
Reference Books:
1. Global Warming by L.D. Danny Harvey, Prentice Hall, 2000.
2. Atmospheric Pollution by Mark Z. Jacobson, Cambridge
University Press, 2002
3. Climate Change, 2001
Homework
• Consider a typical 2000 sq.ft home in Florida with major appliances

such as 25 cu.ft refrigerator, washer, drier, air-conditioning unit
along with the traditional lighting system. Estimate the annual
electricity consumption in terms of kWh.
• Suggest means by which you can reduce the electricity
consumption by half with out significant life style changes.
The Climate System

Components of the climate system:
• The atmosphere
• Oceans
• Biosphere
• Cryosphere (ice & snow)
• Lithosphere (Earth’s crust)
External forcing:
• Sun
• Volcanic eruptions
Originating from inside the earth but they are external in a system sense - they
influence but are not influenced by the climate system. They influence climate
system through the injection of sulphur gases into the stratosphere which are
transformed chemically into sulphate aerosols that have cooling effect on climate
and through the emissions of CO2
Global Climate System Components

The Climate System: Energy and Mass Flows

Energy and matter links the different components of the climate system.
Energy flows : Solar and infrared radiation
Sensible heat
Latent heat (related to the evaporation and condensation of water vapor or

freezing and melting of ice)
Transfer of momentum between the ocean and atmosphere
Mass flows: Water, carbon, sulphur and nutrients such as phosphorus

and nitrate (NO3-)
The behavior of the climate system depends on the nature of the energy
flow and mass flows change as the system changes and vice versa.
The time scales with which the system responds to changes in the mass
and energy flows are important.
Layers of the Atmosphere

Most energetic photons from
the Sun are absorbed
Responsible for absorbing

ultraviolet radiation from Sun
All weather takes place

Major Global Environmental issues
• Global stratospheric ozone (O3) Reduction

(Reference: D.W. Fahey, http://www.epa.gov/ozone/science/index.html)
• Global warming
Global stratospheric ozone (O3) Reduction

Ozone is a gas that is naturally present in our
atmosphere at a concentration of 12,000 ozone
molecules for every billion air molecules. About
90% of all ozone molecules in the atmosphere
reside in the stratosphere and the rest reside in
troposphere.
While ozone molecules near the earth’s surface are
quite harmful to life, they however, shield the
earth from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation.
Hence, absorption of ultraviolet (UV) radiation (UV
portion of the solar spectrum) by ozone is critical
for sustainable life on earth.
Oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2) destroy ozone,
primarily in the upper stratosphere.
Between 1979 and 2000, the global stratospheric
ozone decreased approximately by 3.5%. These
reductions are well correlated with increase in
anthropogenic chlorine compounds
(chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)) in the stratosphere –
hence the current ban on their utilization.
Ozone Formation in the Atmosphere
Green plants produce oxygen using sunlight via

photosynthesis
Break apart of an oxygen molecule (O2) by ultraviolet
radiation from the Sun
In the lower atmosphere (troposphere) ozone is formed
in a different set of chemical reactions involving
hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxide gases. Fossil fuel
combustion is a primary pollution source for
tropospheric ozone (bad ozone) production. It is too
small and the surface production ozone does not
significantly contribute to the abundance of stratospheric
ozone (good ozone). In humans. Ozone exposure can
reduce lung capacity.
Reduction of ozone in the lower atmosphere is desirable
Increasing ozone in stratosphere is necessary for
sustainable future
Ozone Distribution over the Globe
Total amount of ozone above the surface of Earth

varies with location on time scales that range from
daily to seasonal. The variations are caused by
stratospheric winds and the chemical production
and destruction of ozone. Total ozone is generally
lowest at the equator and highest near the poles
because of seasonal wind patterns in the
stratosphere.
Ozone values are reported in Dobson units (DU).
Typical values vary from 200 and 500 DU. A total
ozone value of 500 DU is equivalent to a layer of
pure ozone gas on earth’s surface having a
thickness of 5 mm.
Principle Steps in the Depletion of

Stratospheric Ozone
Halogen source gases: Manufactured gases containing
chlorine ( CFC’s) or bromine
Ozone Hole
2003 Ozone Hole
A polar stratospheric cloud appears

above Australia's Mawson Antarctic base
in this undated handout picture.
Australian scientists warn the ozone hole
over the ice continent could grow to a
record size in 2003 due to colder
stratospheric temperatures, which result
in the formation of clouds, that convert
inert man-made gases into ozone
destroying chemicals. (Reuters - Handout
- August 22,2003)
Ozone is a protective layer in the

atmosphere that shields the Earth from
the sun's rays, in particular ultraviolet-B
radiation that can cause skin cancer,
cataracts and can harm marine life. In
2000, NASA said the ozone hole
expanded to a record 10.9 million
square miles, three times the size of
Australia or the United States,
excluding Alaska.
Past and Future of Atmospheric Halogen Source Gases

Ozone Depletion & Climate Change
Ozone is a “greenhouse gas” along

with carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) . The
accumulation of these gases changes
the radiative balance (between the
incoming solar radiation and outgoing
infrared radiation) of Earth’s
atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases generally change
the balance by absorbing outgoing
radiation, leading to a warming at
Earth’s surface.
The change in earth’s radiative balance
is called radiative forcing of climate
change.
Global Mean Energy Balance

Ozone Depletion & Climate Change
Changes in stratospheric
and tropospheric ozone
represent radiative forcing
of climate change.
Certain changes in Earth’s
climate could affect the
future of the ozone layer.
Recovery of global ozone

Natural Greenhouse Effect
Warming of the Earth’s lower atmosphere due to natural gases that transmit the Sun’s
visible radiation, but absorb and reemit the Earth’s thermal-IR radiation.
The atmosphere allows a large percentage of the rays of visible light from the Sun to
reach the Earth's surface and heat it.
A part of this energy is reradiated by the Earth's surface in the form of long-wave
infrared radiation, much of which is absorbed by molecules of carbon dioxide and water
vapor in the atmosphere and which is reflected back to the surface as heat.
The trapping of this infrared radiation causes the Earth's surface and lower atmospheric
layers to warm to a higher temperature than would otherwise be the case.
Without this greenhouse heating, the Earth's average temperature would be only about
255 K, about 18K below the freezing temperature of water and would not support most
life on Earth.
Owing to the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by modern industrial societies'
widespread combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), the greenhouse effect
on Earth may be intensified and long-term climatic changes may result.
Incoming Solar Radiation
Sun emits radiation with an effective

temperature of about TP = 5785 K
(photosphere temperature)
The energy flux (watts/ m2) emitted by
the Sun (Stefan-Boltzmann law):
FP = εPσ B TP4
The emissivity = 1 5.67 x 10-8 W m-2 K-4
Total energy emitted by the Sun: 4 πRP2 FP

 RP  2
Fs =   σ B TP4
Total energy emitted by the Sun per unit  RS 
time passing through a sphere of radius Res
(Earth-Sun distance): FS = 1,365 W/m2
4 πR 2 F = 4 πR 2 F
es s P P
Solar constant
Incoming Solar Radiation

Taking into account the cross-sectional area of the Earth and the Earth’s albedo (Ae), the
total energy per unit time absorbed by the Earth in a simple energy balance model:
E in = FS (1− Ae )(πRe2 )
Re = 6.378 ×10 6 m
Outgoing Thermal-IR Radiation
The energy flux emitted by the earth: E out = εeσ B Te4 (4πRe2 )
The globally averaged emissivity of Earth = 0.9 ~ 0.98 (assumed as
one)
Equilibrium temperature of the Earth’s surface = Te
Equilibrium Temperature of the Earth:

Incoming solar radiation = outgoing thermal-IR radiation
1
 FS (1− Ae ) 4
Te =  
 4 ε σ
e B 
FS =1365 W/m2; Ae =0.3

Te = 254.8 K
Natural Greenhouse Effect & Global warming
Equilibrium temperature of the Earth = 255 K

Actual globally averaged near-surface air temperature: 288 K
The difference of 33 K is attributed to the presence of atmosphere that is
transparent to most incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs a portion
of the outgoing thermal-IR radiation.
Some of the absorbed radiation is reemitted back to the surface, warming
the surface.
The resulting 33 K increase over the equilibrium temperature of the earth is
called the natural greenhouse effect
Global warming is the increase in Earth’s temperature above the natural
greenhouse effect temperature as a result of the emission of anthropogenic
greenhouse gases and particulate black carbon.
Natural Greenhouse Effect & Global warming

Absorption of Radiation by GHG’s

Climate & Atmospheric History of the Past

420,000 years
Spectral properties
Ref: Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica,
J.R. Petit et.al, Nature, 399, 3, June 1999, 429 - 436.
Climate & Atmospheric History of the Past

420,000 years
Salient Observations:
Climate has almost always been in state of change with stable bounds.
CO2 and CH4 concentrations changes are similar for each 100 kyr glacial cycle.
They are strongly correlated with Antarctic temperatures.
The bounds (lowest and highest values) of major transitions are associated with
glacial and interglacial transitions. (Milankovitch cycles - caused by gravitational
attraction between planets of the solar system and Earth due to changes in the
eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit, obliquity of the Earth’s axis and precession of the
Earth’s axis of rotation.)
Bounds of CO2 : 180 to 280 - 300 ppmv
Bounds of CH4: 350 to 650-770 ppbv
Present day levels:
CO2 : ~ 365 - 385* ppmv; CH4 : ~1,700 ppbv
The data supports the idea that greenhouse gases have contributed significantly to
the glacial-interglacial change.
* 2004 data, Greenhouse gas jumps spurs global warming fears. Reuters, October 11, 2004; 2ppm per year for the
last two years as opposed to 1.5 ppm per year recent trend.
CO2 Concentrations
Fossil fuel burning and cement production
Projected CO2 concentrations

GHG’s Concentrations
Global Temperature Change

Annual Mean Change of the Temperature
At the time of CO2 doubling

Global Carbon Cycle

Global Carbon Equation

Atmospheric increase = Emissions from fossil fuels+Net emissions from
changes in land use-Oceanic uptake-Missing carbon sink
3.2 (±0.2)=6.3 (±0.4)+2.2 (±0.8)-2.4 (±0.7)-2.9 (±1.1) in PgC

One Pg (pentagram) = one billion metric tones= 1012 kg
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
History Projections
50
Billion Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide
40 37
34
30 28
24
22
20 17
15 15 16
13
12 11
10
9
10
6
5 4 4
3 3
0
1990 2001 2010 2020 2025
Industrialized EE/FSU Developing Total
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Fossil

Fuel Type
50
Oil Natural Gas Coal
40 37
34
Billion Metric Tons
30
30 28
24
22
20
10
0
1990 2001 2010 2015 2020 2025
World CO2 Emissions

Average CO2 emissions per unit primary energy consumed
Effect of the use of coal

CO2 Emissions from Fossil fuel combustion (Gg)
- 2002
% Change from 1990
USA 6,175,900 16%

Germany 875,600 -13%
China 334,200 39%
India 104,000 72%
In 1998, the US released 5.4 tonnes of carbon per capita,

European countries averaged around 1.9 tonnes and Africa
emitted 0.3 tonnes.
BBC News: September 1, 2004
Governments should consider setting lower

targets for levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and
investigate ways to extract surplus amounts of
the greenhouse gas from circulation, say climate
scientists.
Before the industrial revolution, the level of CO2 in the

atmosphere was around 280 parts per million by
volume (ppmv) but that has risen to around 380ppmv
due to our burning of fossil fuels.
Scientists have watched as the melting of
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is Greenland's ice has accelerated
focusing its efforts on emission scenarios that lead to
concentrations of no less than 450ppmv while the UK
government is working towards a concentration target
of around double pre-industrial levels, at 550ppmv.
If concentrations stabilize at 550ppmv, the

corresponding global average temperature rise brought
about by the greenhouse effect could still be as high as
5.5C, sufficient to melt the Greenland Ice Sheet and
prompt a rise in sea level of six meters.
Summary
The renewed look at the Sustainable Energy results from two

irrefutable reasons:
The supplies of fossil and mineral resources are limited.
The process in which these resources are used in energy services
damage and even destroy those limited planetary resources on which
our lives depend: water, land and atmosphere.
We are becoming a culture of amnesia and strategically dependent on
fossil energy.
Strategy: Energy from solar sources - Solar Strategy
Signs from Earth*
“Carbon Dioxide Levels Rise; Oceans Warm; Glaciers Melt; sea

Level Rises,; Ice Shelves Collapse; Droughts Linger;
Precipitation Increases; Winter looses its Bite; Spring Arrives
Earlier; Autumn Comes Later; Habitats Change; Birds Nest
Earlier; Coral Reefs Bleach; Snowpacks Decline; Coastline
Erode: Temperatures Spike at High Altitudes”
Not a belief but a scientific Fact
Source: National Geographic, September 6-10, 2004

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Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center

EML 4450/EML 5451: Energy Conversion Systems I

Notes prepared by: Prof. A. Krothapalli

“f “The purpose of education is to bring out the best in you”

This course will present the challenge of changing the global

*Sustainable development: ability of humanity to ensure that it meets the

• To provide an understanding of the concept of sustainable

Text Book and References

What kind of a world would you like to live in?

If you think that the world is not

Map of Six Basic Country Groupings

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Other Country Groupings

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Population rankings of major

World Gross Domestic Product

Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2004

Top Ten GDP Countries

World Gross Domestic Product

Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2004

Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic

World Marketed Energy Consumption

600 Reference Case

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Energy Intensity by Region

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

World Oil Consumption and Production

Consumption Production 2004 Production:

100.0 91.5 91.1

80.0 77.1 77.0

60.0 QuickTime™ and a

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Persian Gulf Oil Productive Capacity

United Arab 2.7

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

World Oil Reserves by Country (1/1/04)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal,

Qo :Ultimate production; tm: Year of peak production

US Cumulative Oil Production

US Annual Oil Production

L is based on logistics equation

World Oil Production

World Oil Cumulative Discovery and Production

Annual World Oil Production

World Oil Production - Hubbert’s Method

Estimated Duration of Crude Oil and Natural

Source: The Solar Economy by Hermann Scheer, Earthscan, 2002.

World Oil Prices

High Oil Price Case that would slash at least half a

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Natural Gas Consumption by Region

2001 2010 2020 2025

Industrialized EE/FSU Developing