ZacksEquityReport Z2280134059
ZacksEquityReport Z2280134059
ZacksEquityReport Z2280134059
P/S (F1) 1.80 Up: 0 Down: 4 Up: 4 Down: 0 Up: 6 Down: 1 Up: 4 Down: 0
Growth Score
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 13.69% 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current
Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days
Hist. EPS Growth (Q0/Q-1) 2.63 Q1 -3.92% Q2 0% F1 +1.98% F2 +1.51%
Qtr CFO Growth 2.68
Momentum Score Most Accurate: 0.98 Most Accurate: 1.01 Most Accurate: 4.14 Most Accurate: 4.73
Zacks Consensus: 0.98 Zacks Consensus: 1.01 Zacks Consensus: 4.13 Zacks Consensus: 4.70
1 week Volume change 20.67%
Q1 0.00% Q2 0.00% F1 0.24% F2 0.64%
1 week Price Cng Rel to Industry -0.08%
Reported: 1.13 Reported: 1.01 Reported: 0.85 Reported: 0.91 Average 4 Qtr
Surprise
Estimate: 1.02 Estimate: 0.90 Estimate: 0.83 Estimate: 0.90
Q End 06/17 Q End 03/17 Q End 12/16 Q End 09/16
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The data on the front page and all the charts in the report represent market data as of 08/08/17, while the reports text is as of
08/09/2017
Overview
Marriott International Inc. is a leading worldwide hospitality
company focused on lodging management and franchising, after
the spin-off of its timeshare business into a publicly traded
company in Nov 2011. At the end of the second quarter of 2017,
the company operated, franchised and acted as a licensor of
hotels and timeshare properties to more than 6,200 properties
across 125 countries and territories, under 30 brand names.
In fact, recently during a conference in Berlin, Marriott’s CEO Arne Sorenson announced his plan to ramp up the expansion of
brands acquired through the takeover, such as Sheraton, W and Aloft. In fact, Sorenson also declared that Marriott intends to keep
expansion rate at the same level as it was before the acquisition. This would effectively mean faster growth for the Starwood brands,
moving forward.
Also, Marriott’s move to buy Starwood shows that the hospitality industry thrives on such blockbuster deals that are critical to their
success at a time when online booking is becoming important in the lodging business. Larger hotel companies, boasting economies
of scale can bargain with online travel agents like Expedia, TripAdvisor and The Priceline Group’s Booking.com for better fees.
Moreover, post-acquisition of Starwood, shares of the company have gained 51.9%, while the broader S&P 500 index grew 13.9%
in the same time-frame. Thus, after sorting out its integration challenges, Marriott’s shares are well-poised to grow in the long-term,
as and when positive synergies are realized.
Also, with the Protea Hospitality Group buyout in 2014, the company became the largest hotel company in Africa and has nearly
doubled its presence in the Middle East and African region. This was followed by the acquisition of Delta Hotels and Resorts brand
in 2015.
These acquisitions would help the company to carry on its strategy of expanding its portfolio worldwide. Interestingly, even with 30
brands under portfolio, the company has not ruled out further M&A activities. Holding about 14–15% market share in the U.S, the
company is well-positioned to capitalize on the existing growth potential.
Attractive Brand Position, Increased Travel Demand to Drive Growth Over the Long-Term: Marriott is a leading company in the
luxury and lifestyle space, which includes brands that own more than 6,000 properties. Marriott’s extensive portfolio and a strong
brand position allows it to charge a premium room rate in the highly competitive lodging industry. Given its property locations, we
believe that the company is well-poised to benefit from the increasing market demand on the back of stepped-up business as well as
leisure traveling in major North American and international locations.
Given the improvement in business and leisure travel, Marriott is well-poised to grow in the near as well as long term. In addition,
improving economic conditions, surging capital markets and rising business and consumer confidence are expected to continue
supporting growth in corporate transient demand, which was bumpy all through 2016.
Also, with global travel estimated to increase at a 7% compounded rate over the next 10 years and international trips expected to
top 1.8 billion by 2030, Marriott is well-positioned to benefit given its strong global footprint and an unmatched portfolio of lodging
brands.
We note that owing to higher revenues coming from higher room growth rates, the company has been posting strong operating
margins over the past few years. Earnings per share have also enhanced significantly. From 2010 to 2016, the company’s fee
revenues have increased over 87%, while adjusted operating margin has also improved. This positive trend is expected to continue
in 2017 as well.
Recently at its Investor’s Day Conference, the company outlined its three-year growth plan. Marriott expects to earn $675 million in
stabilized fees from hotel rooms, added to its system in 2017 through 2019. In addition, non-property related franchise fees, largely
credit card branding fees, should increase by $100 million during the three years. The plan assumes RevPAR growth of 1- 3%
compounded annually through 2019. Given these assumptions, over the next three years, the company expects to produce diluted
earnings per share of $5.25 to $5.80 by 2019, a compound growth rate of 17-21% over 2016 combined results. Besides, adjusted
earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) is expected to rise 7—10% compounded,
excluding the impact of asset sales.
Additionally, Marriott is strengthening its financial flexibility through asset sale. The sale of assets is helping the company to grow
through management and licensing arrangements, instead of direct ownership of selective assets. However, Marriott continues to
manage the properties post sale. Notably, a higher concentration of franchise fees reduces earnings volatility and provides a more
stable growth profile.
Strong Expansion Plans: Marriott is consistently trying to expand its presence worldwide and capitalize on the demand for hotels in
the international markets. Going forward, the company plans to significantly grow its global portfolio of luxury and lifestyle brands.
Meanwhile, the company anticipates net room additions of 6% in 2017.
Also with the increasing number of managed and franchised limited service hotels in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil, the company
expects its distribution in the Caribbean and Latin American region to increase 75% by 2018.
Notably, the demand for hotels in these markets is greater than in the domestic space as the rising disposable income, primarily
among the middle classes, is boosting tourism. Within Asia-Pacific, China promises immense growth potential, despite the economic
slowdown.
In fact, the company recently entered into a joint venture agreement with Alibaba -- the largest e-commerce platform in the world
with more than 500 million active mobile users -- to develop a travel storefront that leverages Alibaba's digital travel platform, retail
expertise, and digital payment platform, Alipay. Meanwhile, as incomes rise, China's middle class is looking for higher quality
products and elevated travel experiences. In fact, Chinese outbound travel is set to boom with 700 million trips projected over the
next five years. Marriott thus expects this new joint venture to aid in capturing a greater share of this growing Chinese travel market,
grow membership of its loyalty programs and reduce distribution costs.
Apart from China, Marriott continues to focus on other Asian countries like India, Indonesia, Thailand and Australia for further
expansion.
Embracing Social Media and Smartphones to Build Loyalty: Digital innovations and social media are starting to play an increasingly
important role in hotel bookings. Social media enhances the brand’s prospects by connecting directly with guests, which in turn can
lead to increased loyalty and market share. The Marriott mobile app for tablets and smartphones helps guests to manage their
bookings, access interactive maps/GPS as well as reward programs. Moreover, Marriott recently re-imagined its Marriott Mobile app
to meet the needs of the modern traveler. Guests will now be able to enjoy new and extended digital features, customized travel
content, easier one-button navigation and a new swipe-able discovery home screen.
Moreover, the company has rolled out guestVoice to measure guest feedback, introduced SPG Mobile check-in and check-out in
North America, and achieved procurement and OTA cost savings.
Additionally, post its acquisition of Starwood, Marriott has linked industry-leading guest loyalty programs – Marriott Rewards, Ritz-
Carlton Rewards and Starwood Preferred Guest – and announced the matching of member status between the programs, thereby
leading to an even larger loyalty community.
Loyalty programs are Marriott's most powerful marketing platform and it continues to invest in marketing partnerships and
innovations designed to provide a more rewarding experience to the guests. In Oct 2016, the company announced an industry-first
benefit for holders of its co-brand credit cards, allowing them to earn bonus points for stays at hotels across all 30 brands.
Additionally, the company’s MLive, real-time marketing brand newsroom and social media command center is worth mentioning.
Through this media source, the company addresses travel issues, special events, trending topics and is busy expanding MLive
globally.
Returning Shareholders Wealth: The company has a dividend distribution policy and a share repurchase program in place to boost
shareholder value. In 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014, the company increased its dividend rate by 10%, 20%, 25% and 18%,
respectively and by 30% each in 2013 and 2012.
In fact, based on certain assumptions, the company expects cash available for shareholders to total $8.3 to $9.3 billion for the three
years (2017 through 2019). Also, it expects to return $1.4 to $1.5 billion to shareholders in dividends, assuming a continued 30%
payout ratio and $6.9 to $7.8 billion in share repurchases over the three-year period.
Frequent share buybacks and continuous increase in quarterly dividend payments affirm the company’s optimistic outlook and
growth prospects.
Reasons To Sell:
Integration Risks: Marriott faces various risks relating to integration of Starwood. The Lingering political
company may fail to realize the anticipated synergies and benefits if it fails to integrate uncertainties in some key
Starwood acquisition in an efficient and effective manner. Moreover, the diversion of operating regions coupled
management’s attention away from day-to-day business concerns given the acquisition with currency headwinds
along with any difficulties encountered in the transition and integration process could remain potent headwinds
adversely affect its financial results. The integration process could also take longer than
Lingering Uncertainty in Various International Markets & RevPAR Growth: Despite immense growth potential, a sluggish economy
and oversupply in Brazil are weighing on the Latin American region. In the Middle East, political unrest, lower government spending,
new hotel supply and a tough oil market continue to hurt tourism and the company expects weak RevPAR trends in the Middle East
to continue in the coming quarter as well. Also the slowdown in the Chinese economy is hurting discretionary spending as well as
travel. Also, Marriott expects lower-leisure demand to somewhat temper growth in the Caribbean region.
Meanwhile, in the domestic market, the company is facing competition in New York due to a continuous increase in supply of hotels,
which is limiting room rents, thereby hurting RevPAR in the region.
Europe Might Pose a Concern: In Europe, economic/political conditions are expected to be challenging after the U.K.’s exit from the
28-member economic bloc. Given Marriott’s considerable presence in Europe, this might limit its business growth. As it is, business
conditions in Europe are plagued by economic uncertainties in the northern region and deflation in the Eurozone. Recent terror
assaults on key European cities like London, Paris and Brussels have also affected tourism. Going forward, soft economic
conditions in France are expected to hurt revenues of the company.
Fluctuation in Exchange Rates: Marriott has significant international presence and is therefore highly vulnerable to fluctuations in
exchange rates. Notably, the company has been witnessing fewer international guests at its U.S. hotels, given the stronger dollar.
Moreover, the company is also bearing the brunt of Venezuelan currency devaluation. Going forward, such volatility in exchange
rates would continue to hurt the results of the company as it has been doing over the past few quarters.
Notably, combined second-quarter 2016 results assume Marriott's acquisition of Starwood and Starwood's sale of its timeshare
business that completed on Jan 1, 2015 along with some other adjustments.
Total revenue almost remained flat year over year at nearly $5.80 billion but topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.12 billion by
over 13%.
Excluding the impact of Marriott's acquisition of Starwood and Starwood's sale of its timeshare business on second-quarter 2016
results, the top line in the quarter increased a significant 48.5% year over year. This, in turn, reflects the positive impact of Starwood
acquisition on second-quarter 2017 revenues.
In the quarter, revenue per available room (RevPAR) for worldwide comparable system-wide properties increased 2.2% in constant
dollar (up 1.4% in actual dollars), driven by 0.7% growth in occupancy and a 1.2% rise in average daily rate (ADR). In fact, the reported
figure came within management’s guided range of an increase of 1% to 3% on a constant dollar basis.
Comparable system-wide RevPAR in North America grew 0.9% in constant dollars (up 0.8% in actual dollars). Though occupancy rate
declined 0.3%, ADR witnessed an increase of 1.3%. Management had expected the same to be flat to up 2% for the quarter.
In constant dollar, international comparable system-wide RevPAR rose 5.8% (up 3.1% in actual dollars) in the second quarter of 2017.
Both occupancy rate and ADR witnessed a rise of 3.1% and 1.1%, respectively. Also, the figure came above management’s guided
range of a rise of 3% to 5% on a constant-dollar basis.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was $834 million, up 8% year over year, from
combined adjusted EBITDA in the year-ago quarter.
Worldwide comparable company-operated house profit margin increased 50 basis points (bps) in the reported quarter. The uptick can
be attributable to higher RevPAR and synergies from the Starwood acquisition, including procurement savings. However, North
American comparable company-operated house profit margins decreased 10 bps. Meanwhile, house profit margins for comparable
company-operated properties outside North America rose 140 bps.
Total adjusted expenses decreased 1.4% year over year to $5.15 billion mainly due to lower general, administrative and other
General, administrative, and other expenses were $226 million, down 8.5% from the year-ago quarter, primarily due to general
administrative cost savings. Notably, the figure was just above the management’s expected range of $220 million to $225 million.
Marriott's outlook for third-quarter, fourth-quarter and full-year 2017 is for the combined company and does not include merger-related
costs.
For the third quarter, earnings per share are estimated between $0.96 and $0.99.
Marriott projects comparable system-wide RevPAR to be roughly flat in North America on a constant dollar basis. RevPAR for
worldwide comparable system-wide properties is projected to inch up in the range of 1% to 2%. Outside North America, the company
expects the same to increase in the 3% to 5% band.
Adjusted EBITDA is likely to be in the range of $770 to $790 million, reflecting tough comparisons caused by the Olympics and the shift
in the Jewish holidays year over year. Meanwhile, the company expects fee revenues between $810 million and $825 million. Operating
income is projected in the range of $595 to $615 million while general, administrative and other expenses are anticipated between $215
million and $220 million.
For the fourth quarter, earnings per share are estimated between $0.96 and $1.05.
Marriott expects comparable system-wide RevPAR to increase in the range of 1% to 3% on a constant dollar basis in North America
and worldwide. Outside North America, the company expects the same to inch up in the 2–4% band.
Moreover, the company anticipates fee revenues between $804 million and $849 million. Operating income is projected in the range of
$594 to $644 million while general, administrative and other expenses are expected between $229 million and $234 million.
For full-year 2017, Marriott now anticipates earnings in the band of $4.06 to $4.18 per share, up from the earlier guided range of $3.92
to $4.09.
Marriott expects comparable system-wide RevPAR to inch up 1-2% in North America (earlier 1-3% rise), climb 3-5% outside North
America (earlier 2-4% increase) and rise 1-3% worldwide (same as earlier), on a constant dollar basis.
Additionally, the company projects fee revenues between $3,245 million and $3,305 million (earlier $3,225-$3,295 million). The increase
reflects better-than-expected fees in the second quarter.
Operating income is anticipated in the range of $2,420 million to $2,490 million (earlier $2,405-$2,495 million), while adjusted EBITDA is
projected to be between $3,131 million and $3,201 million (earlier $3,100-$3,195 million). Meanwhile, general, administrative and other
expenses are still expected to be in the band of $880 million to $890 million.
Recent News
Marriott Enters into a Joint Venture with Alibaba Group – Aug 7, 2017
Marriott recently announced the formation of a joint venture with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. -- the largest e-commerce platform in the
world. Notably, this new venture is designed to create seamless, insight-based travel Services, with Alibaba serving as a gateway to
over half a billion Chinese consumers.
A Marriott unit, W Hotels Worldwide, recently announced the opening of W Shanghai – The Bund. In fact, this is the first property in
Shanghai and the third in Mainland China, under this brand that is part of Marriott’s luxury brands portfolio.
This new property at Shanghai also joins a portfolio of over 50 W Hotels properties around the world. In fact, Shanghai being one of the
most cosmopolitan cities in the world, it is an opportune time to have opened a property there now.
A Marriott unit, The Ritz-Carlton, announced the opening of The Ritz-Carlton, Astana. In fact, this is the first property in Kazakhstan’s
capital city under this brand that is part of Marriott’s luxury brands portfolio. The 157-roomed hotel is suitably located in the Talan
Towers, joining a business center and luxury shopping gallery to create the city's first high-end, mixed-use complex.
Marriott Maps Massive Growth Strategy in Asia Pacific – May 30, 2017
Taking into consideration its solid performance in first-quarter 2017, Marriott recently announced that the company is on track to open
nearly 80 hotels in Asia Pacific thereby bringing 19,000 new rooms to the region.
Moreover, the company plans to introduce two more brands in Asia Pacific this year. With a total of 23 attractive brands on offer, the
company aims to cater to every occasion and traveler, and grow its footing as a luxury, premium as well as select service hotel operator
therein. Thus, 2017 is set to be a breakthrough year for Marriott across Asia Pacific.
Growth Score - -
Hist. EPS Growth (3-5 yrs) 13.69% 10.42% 6.89% -23.93 32.08 6.66
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 5.96% 10.79% 9.32% 10.07 11.66 11.39
Curr. Cash Flow Growth 31.64% 7.49% 5.36% 5.87 NA 7.69
Hist. Cash Flow Growth (3-5 yrs) 15.96% 5.07% 6.72% 13.65 18.22 1.98
Current Ratio 0.60 1.34 1.38 13.93 8.01 16.40
Debt/Capital 61.23% 47.76% 41.72% 33.95 16.25 36.47
Net Margin 5.27% 4.69% 9.91% 2.25 1.76 1.60
Return on Equity 27.84% 4.53% 15.94% 2.87% 6.01% 2.67%
Sales/Assets 0.87 0.59 0.54 4.34 9.35 0.38
Proj. Sales Growth (F1/F0) 25.97% 3.09% 5.18% 4.86 8.24 4.53
Value Score - -
Cash/Price 25.73 8.91 9.55 -30.35% 8.85% 1.81%
EV/EBITDA 29.09 12.98 12.69 -31.76% 7.94% -1.56%
PEG Ratio 2.88 2.88 2.02 7.49% 5.46% 24.21%
Price/Book (P/B) 7.86 3.05 3.21 14.22% 8.45% 5.99%
Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) 23.56 16.80 13.47 1.00 0.95 1.27
P/E (F1) 25.19 26.82 19.00 81.27% 90.34% 27.34%
Price/Sales (P/S) 1.80 2.05 2.51 0.39% 10.17% 5.71%
Earnings Yield 3.81% 3.19% 5.21% 57.35% 99.83% 5.39%
Debt/Equity 1.58 0.86 0.68 0.73 0.55 0.59
Cash Flow ($/share) 3.32 2.31 5.44 -23.42% 5.05% 4.75%
Momentum Score - -
Daily Price Chg -2.09% -0.34% -0.27% -2.65% -2.39% -2.71%
1 Week Price Chg -0.08% -0.31% 0.00% -0.06% -3.18% 5.95%
4 Week Price Chg 3.20% 0.03% 1.51% -0.61% -0.50% 6.89%
12 Week Price Chg -0.04% 0.22% 3.07% -0.56% 5.14% 1.32%
52 Week Price Chg 44.68% 24.67% 10.86% -12.62% 45.24% 11.42%
20 Day Average Volume 1,878,585 212,185 0 2,715,025 886,504 734,309
(F1) EPS Est Wkly Chg 1.97% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% -0.21% 9.84%
(F1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 1.97% 0.27% 0.36% 0.83% -0.21% 9.63%
(F1) EPS Est Qtrly Chg 2.32% 0.38% 0.97% 1.25% 0.16% 8.96%
(Q1) EPS Est Mthly Chg -3.36% -3.36% -0.16% 0.67% -3.05% -16.82%
Agreement
This is the extent which brokerage analysts are revising their earnings estimates in the same
direction. The greater the percentage of estimates being revised higher, the better the score for this
component.
For example, if there were 10 estimate revisions over the last 60 days, with 8 of those revisions up,
and the other 2 down, then the agreement factor would be 80% positive. If, however, 8 were to the
downside with only 2 of them up, then the agreement factor would be 80% negative. The higher the
percentage of agreement the better.
Magnitude
This is a measure based on the size of the recent change in the current consensus estimates. The
Zacks Rank looks at the magnitude of these changes over the last 60 days.
In the chart to the right, the display shows the consensus estimate from 60-days ago, 30-days ago,
7-days ago, and the most current estimate The difference between the current estimate and the
estimate from 60-days ago is displayed as a percentage. A larger positive percentage increase will
score better on this component.
Upside
This is the difference between the most accurate estimate, as calculated by Zacks, and the
consensus estimate. For example, a stock with a consensus estimate of $1.00, and a most
accurate estimate of $1.05 will have an upside factor of 5%.
This is not an indication of how much a stock will go up or down. Instead, it's a measure of the
difference between these two estimates. This is particularly useful near earnings season as a
positive upside percentage can be used to help predict a future surprise.
Surprise
The Zacks Rank also factors in the last few quarters of earnings surprises. Companies that have
positively surprised in the recent past have a tendency of positively surprising again in the future (or
missing if they recently missed).
A stock with a recent track record of positive surprises will score better on this factor than a stock
with a history of negative surprises. These stocks will have a greater likelihood of positively
surprising again.
Academic research has proven that stocks with the best Growth, Value, and Momentum Growth Score
characteristics outperform the market. The Zacks Style Scores rate stocks on each of these Momentum Score
individual styles and assigns a rating of A, B, C, D and F. An A, is better than a B; a B is better than
a C; and so on. VGM Score
As an investor, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. That means buying
stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2, Strong Buy or Buy, which also has a Style Score of an A or a B.