Wells Fargo ICL March 2011
Wells Fargo ICL March 2011
Wells Fargo ICL March 2011
Equity Research
Procter & Gamble Co.
PG: Initiated Coverage With Outperform Rating, $70-73 Valuation Outperform
D&E Opportunities Should Drive Top-Line, Op Mgn, And EPS Growth
• Summary: We have initiated coverage of PG with an Outperform rating on the Sector: Household and Personal Care
shares and a $70-73 valuation range. Our rating within our Market Weight Products
Household and Personal Care sector rating is based on (1) P&G's industry- Market Weight
leading research and development (R&D) investments, (2) penetration
acceleration in developing and emerging (D&E) markets (i.e., more relative
runway versus competitors), and (3) leveraging of both scale and financial Initiation of Coverage
strength to increase earnings. Near-term gross margin will likely be restrained
by rising input costs. Long-term gross or operating margin expansion will likely 2010A 2011E 2012E
be driven by ongoing cost-saving initiatives, improving business and product EPS Curr. Prior Curr. Prior
mix, and leveraging of distribution expansion. P&G's portfolio provides a Q1 (Sep.) $0.97 $1.02 A NC $1.13 NE
competitive advantage with (1) broad exposure to fast-growing categories, Q2 (Dec.) 1.10 1.10 NE 1.20 NE
Q3 (Mar.) 0.89 1.00 NE 1.11 NE
(2) strong margin from scale in market-leading brands, and (3) efficiency
Q4 (June) 0.71 0.86 NE 0.95 NE
entering D&E markets. P&G will likely continue to make small to midsize
FY $3.67 $3.98 NE $4.39 NE
accretive acquisitions. Current valuations on our 2012 estimates are 31% and CY $3.72 $4.19 $4.61
27% below and above the low end of historical P/E and enterprise value (EV)-to- FY P/E 17.8x 16.4x 14.9x
EBITDA ranges. Our range reflects the collective lower third of historical Rev. (MM) $78,938 $81,873 $85,446
forward P/E and EV-to-EBITDA ranges. We believe strong free cash flow, a Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters
NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate, NM = Not Meaningful
strong balance sheet, prudent capital deployment, and a 2.9% dividend yield V = Volatile, = Company is on the Priority Stock List
should provide downside risk support to the stock. We believe PG will
outperform the sector and the S&P 500 on a total return basis.
• FY2011E And FY2012E Key Assumptions. Our FY2011 and FY2012 EPS Ticker PG
estimates of $3.98 and $4.39 are based upon 4.0% and 4.4% organic revenue Price (01/20/2011) $65.35
growth, and modest operating margin improvement. 52-Week Range: $39-66
• Upcoming Catalysts. These include (1) January 27, 2011, FQ2 2011 earnings, Shares Outstanding: (MM) 3,025.6
and (2) CY2011 new product announcements. Relative returns versus the S&P Market Cap.: (MM) $199,084.0
500 are best during the August through October period, with the best returns S&P 500: 1,280.26
occurring in September. The stock tends to underperform the market early in the Avg. Daily Vol.: 10,803,200
calendar year, with the worst returns usually occurring in April. Dividend/Yield: $1.93/2.9%
LT Debt: (MM) $32,976.0
LT Debt/Total Cap.: 34.3%
Valuation Range: $70.00 to $73.00 ROE: 18.0%
Our valuation range represents 15.2-15.8x P/E, 10.9-11.3x EV-to-EBITDA, and 3-5 Yr. Est. Growth Rate: 10.0%
6.6%-6.4% free cash flow yield to our CY2012 EPS, EBITDA and free cash flow per CY 2011 Est. P/E-to-Growth: 1.6x
share estimates of $4.61, $7.72, and $4.64, respectively. Risks to our range include Last Reporting Date: 10/27/2010
(1) prolonged global economic downturn, (2) foreign exchange fluctuations, (3) an Before Open
increase in taxes on international profits, (4) aggressive competitive discounting, Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters
(5) loss of a major customer (Wal-Mart, Target), (6) significant input cost inflation,
(7) integration risk and dilution related to future acquisitions, and (8) European
antitrust issues.
Timothy Conder, CPA, Senior Analyst
Investment Thesis: (314) 955-5743
A diversified portfolio, deep management team, industry-leading R&D investments, [email protected]
developing and emerging markets prospects, and opportunities to leverage scale Joe Lachky, Associate Analyst
(314) 955-2061
and financial strength provide P&G with a competitive advantage over competitors. [email protected]
Valuations should expand to the collective lower third of historical ranges given Michael K. Walsh, CFA, CPA, Associate Analyst
accelerating top-line and EPS growth rates and near-term risks from commodity (314) 955-6277
prices and foreign exchange. [email protected]
PG010611-084724
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Company Description
Procter & Gamble Co., based in Cincinnati, Ohio, is the largest global manufacturer and marketer of consumer
packaged goods. The company produces a very diverse set of products in the Beauty, Grooming, Health Care,
Snacks and Pet Care, Fabric Care and Home Care, and Baby Care and Family Care segments. The brand
portfolio is extremely deep with 50 "leadership brands," including 23 billion-dollar brands. Key brand names
include Crest toothpaste, Duracell batteries, Gillette razors, Olay skin care, Pampers diapers, Pantene hair
care, and Tide laundry detergent. Products are sold in over 180 countries primarily through mass
merchandisers, grocery stores, club stores, drug stores, and high-frequency stores (neighborhood stores in
developing markets). See www.pg.com.
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WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Summary Overview
Procter & Gamble is the largest global manufacturer and marketer of consumer packaged goods. Through
successful R&D and marketing, the company has created an unmatched brand portfolio, with market-leading
brands spanning multiple product categories and price tiers. The portfolio includes 50 “leadership brands,”
constituting 90% of the company’s revenue and operating profit. These consist of 23 billion-dollar brands,
which include Crest, Duracell, Gillette, Olay, Pampers, Pantene, and Tide.
Procter & Gamble has structured its organization into three global business units (GBU): beauty and grooming
(33.8% of FY2010 and an estimated 34.1% of FY2011 net sales), health and well-being (18.2% of FY2010 and
an estimated 18.1% of FY2011 net sales), and household care (48.0% of FY2010 and an estimated 47.8% of
FY2011 net sales), which are supported by the company’s global operations, global business services, and
corporate functions operations. The company has six reportable segments within the GBU structure:
Beauty and grooming GBU: beauty, grooming
Health and well-being GBU: health care, snacks and health care
Household care GBU: fabric care and home care, baby care, and family care
Procter & Gamble’s largest product categories are laundry (approximately 17% of net sales), located in the
fabric care and home care segment, and diapers (approximately 11% of net sales), found in the baby care and
family care segment.
Procter & Gamble is also well regarded for its deep and experienced management team. Senior management is
relatively new to its positions, with the CEO and CFO both assuming their current positions in 2009 and all
vice chairmen-level executives elected to officer positions in the 2007-08 period, although all have significant
experience with the company. P&G is best known for its strong track record of results, driven by (1) new
products and (2) successful integration of multiple acquisitions.
Current major investor concerns affecting both the company and the industry include the following:
Consumer destocking,
Consumer trade-down (i.e., negative mix),
Increased trade spending,
Input costs,
Foreign exchange, and
Pricing
Please see our industry report dated January 20, 2011, for a detailed discussion of these issues and a broad
industry overview.
In our opinion, not all of these issues are material fundamental concerns. We believe the bottom-line impact of
the collective remaining items can be more than offset by positive growth prospects from (1) new products
from industry-leading R&D investments, (2) penetration accelerating in D&E markets (i.e., more relative
runway versus the company’s largest competitors), and (3) leveraging both scale and financial strength (i.e.,
margin, balance sheet, cash flow) to increase earnings. Finally, in addition to CY2011 new product
introductions providing upcoming potential catalysts, P&G will likely continue to make small to midsize
accretive acquisitions, based on its company strategy.
Investor Concerns And Outlook
Several issues include (1) consumer destocking, (2) consumer trade-down (i.e., negative mix), (3) increased
trade spending, (4) input costs, (5) foreign exchange, and (6) pricing have posed headwinds for companies in
the Household Products and Personal Care industry over the past 12-18 months and remain of concern.
Consumer Destocking
We believe destocking for consumer staples will be at worst a non-issue by early CY2011 (if not
already completed). Therefore, this should no longer be a factor for the volume component of sales
assuming all other factors (i.e., trade spending, new products, etc.) remain equal.
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WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Consumer Trade-Down
While consumers remain very price conscious, we believe the trade-down dynamic has largely run its course
(i.e., those that will trade-down already have), absent another leg down in the global economy. With the
outlook for developed economies to remain in a period of below-trend cyclical growth and relatively high
unemployment, the primary question that remains, in our view, is, how long will the new period of “value
consciousness” in consumer staples last before a new material trade-up cycle begins and to what degree, if any,
has a structural shift occurred?
We believe the timing of a new trade-up cycle emerging will be elongated as consumers continue to look
for savings in consumer staples.
We also believe there has been some, but yet unquantifiable, structural shift toward value.
However, we do not believe there has been a permanent fundamental change in consumer behavior, as
evidenced by successful recent new premium products introduced by the company and competitors (i.e.,
consumers still pay a premium for clear value provided).
The success of recent new premium products like the Fusion ProGlide razor lends credence to this conclusion.
However, management has also seen strong growth in value products in developed markets, including growth
in basics offerings (i.e., Bounty Basic and Charmin Basic), and the retail hair and skin business growing faster
than Salon Professional and Prestige. While historically focusing primarily on developing premium products,
management has also shifted its innovation focus in part to developing new products in mid-tier or value tiers
to benefit from the trade-down dynamic. As mid-tier value products become a larger part of Procter &
Gamble’s product portfolio, it will likely have an ongoing negative sales mix impact (due to a lower price per
unit). Over the long term, P&G’s growing emerging market presence provides an opportunity as consumers
trade upward and expand per-capita consumption. This could provide continued growth even in the absence of
market-share gains.
Trade Spending
To drive limited revenue growth in a soft economy, competitors (especially those producing premium
products) focused on maintaining market share and preventing consumers from trading downward. This was
largely approached through increased trade spending (i.e., temporary price reductions as manufacturers
attempt to adjust to competitive pricing actions without officially reducing list prices), which reduced
manufacturers’ gross-to-net sales.
Procter & Gamble is the market leader in most categories in which it competes and, as such,
generally leads the market with pricing actions. In addition, the company’s brands in developed
markets are weighted toward premium products and the company has a high exposure to categories most
affected by trade spending. Recent pricing pressure has been greatest in diapers and laundry (P&G’s two
largest categories), categories in which competitors did not follow pricing movements (i.e., batteries), and in
geographies where foreign exchange increased, then reversed.
Trade spending is not a significant part of management’s overall strategy, although management has recently
utilized promotional spending to generate trial on new products, i.e., the “Have You Tried This Yet?”
campaign. Management has said that it would like to see low levels of promotional spending, preferring that
consumers see the very best price every day. Over time, we expect P&G and other manufacturers to ease
promotions and build brand awareness through more traditional means.
Given (1) the limited incremental benefit of further trade spending on volume, and (2) considering rising input
costs (see subsequent discussion), we believe manufacturer trade spending will continue to abate sequentially,
as it appears as if the most aggressive trade spending-related pricing actions (CQ2 2010) are now behind the
industry. The larger question, in our view, is if the consumer has become conditioned to promotional pricing
and will continue to buy when price increases return or promotions abate.
Input Costs
Procter & Gamble spends approximately $24 billion annually (a FY2009 statistic) on materials,
its largest cost bucket. The company has broad exposure across many commodities, including natural gas,
oil derivatives, agriculture-based materials, specialty chemicals, metals, and packaging materials (see appendix
for charts of some key commodities). Given the wide range of products Procter & Gamble produces, its overall
commodity exposure is better diversified than its competitors’.
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WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Commodity price changes generally flow through the income statement on an average 3+
month lag, depending on the product. For example, changes in pulp prices flow through at a faster rate
(approximately three months) than resins (approximately nine months). The company also actively buys raw
materials to sell to suppliers because of the scale it is able to achieve. Given Procter & Gamble’s size and wide
range of uses for raw materials across multiple product lines, management is able to demand a better price
than individual third-party vendors might be able to negotiate. Management’s priority is to enter into long-
term contracts focusing on supply availability versus price. Procter & Gamble does not hedge commodity
exposure as its broad commodity requirements, coupled with the company viewing commodities, foreign
exchange, labor, and logistics net exposure, collectively tends to provide an operational hedge.
Foreign Exchange
Foreign exchange is an important factor in net sales and earnings growth. Although the company does not
specifically break out its foreign exchange exposure, we believe the company’s largest currency exposures
correspond closely with its net geographic sales exposure: the euro, the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, the
Pound Sterling, and the Mexican peso. The Chinese Yuan and the Russian ruble are also important currencies.
Management expects foreign exchange to be a 1-2% headwind to net sales in FY2011 and a 2% headwind in
FQ2 2011. The company does not hedge its foreign currency exposure.
Exhibit 1.
PG Revenue by Currency
FY 2010
Other
U.S.
30.0%
Dollar
Mex. Peso 38.0%
3.0%
Pound
3.5% Yen
4.0% C an. Euro
Dollar 17.5%
4.0%
So urce: Co mpany repo rts and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates
Procter & Gamble manages its businesses independent of foreign exchange considerations, focusing instead on
organic growth. The functional currencies of foreign subsidiaries are the local currency. From a cost
standpoint, management examines the benefits of local sourcing of materials and labor, versus an out-of-
country sourcing and distribution model, using local sourcing to hedge foreign exchange exposure from the
revenue side. Management tends to view its foreign currency exposure on a companywide basis, generally
describing and managing foreign exchange fluctuations in a global context within a collective bucket that
includes other input (e.g., commodities, labor, and logistical) costs.
Even though major developing economies in China and India have some measure of foreign exchange controls,
Venezuela has been a particular country to closely monitor, due to the extreme measures taken by the
government to tightly control all aspects of the economy.
Beginning January 1, 2010, Venezuela was designated a highly inflationary economy under U.S. GAAP. This
requires companies with Venezuelan subsidiaries to use the U.S. dollar as their functional currency. Quarterly
(1) changes in non-dollar monetary assets and liabilities of these subsidiaries, and (2) transactional foreign
exchange gains and losses are required to be reflected in the income statement.
January 8, 2010, Venezuela devalued the Bolivar versus the U.S. dollar, instituting a tiered official exchange
rate of 2.6 (versus the prior, 2.15) for essential imported goods (i.e., food, medicine, and capital investments),
and 4.3 for non-essential imported goods, including Venezuelan subsidiary dividend repatriations. It should be
noted that many imported household and personal care products qualify as essential imported goods. The
government limits the amount of foreign exchange available at the official rates. Outside of the official
exchange rate, Bolivars were able to be exchanged at a parallel rate (a rate less favorable than the official
government rate) via securities transactions executed by brokerages.
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WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
In May 2010, the Venezuelan government further tightened exchange controls by (1) making the Central Bank
of Venezuela the only legal intermediary through which parallel securities transactions could be executed, and
(2) effectively put the government in control of the parallel exchange rate by limiting the notional transactions
available at the parallel rate. During CQ2 2010, the parallel rate approximated 8.2 Bolivars to the U.S. dollar
(Source: Bloomberg) prior to the May exchange control measures and approximated 5.3 Bolivars per U.S.
dollar on June 30, 2010.
On January 1, 2011, Venezuela devalued the Bolivar for essential imported goods to 4.3 from 2.6, effectively
setting the official exchange rate for all imported goods (essential and non-essential) at 4.3 Bolivars per U.S.
dollar. In late December 2010, the parallel rate approximated 5.3 Bolivars per U.S. dollar (Source: Bloomberg).
Procter & Gamble has been able to offset the revenue impact from the currency devaluation as approximately
50% of goods sold in Venezuela are locally produced (however, the company does import raw materials and
packing materials, most of which are contracted in U.S. dollars). We note that local production does introduce
the risk of nationalization (we believe the risk is low at this point) and the risk of supply interruptions (e.g.,
water, electricity, and labor). Management remains proactive in repatriating Bolivars when available, while
maintaining enough currency to run its business. The political and business climate remains shaky and it is
uncertain how long it will take to return sales and profit to prior levels. Management believes the true
exchange rate economics for the subsidiary are at a blended rate between the official and parallel rates.
Following the January 2010 devaluation, Procter & Gamble began using the 4.3 rate to reflect financial results
in Venezuela (both income from subsidiary and translation of the balance sheet), with the exception of
$260 million of its $490 million monetary balance re-measured at the higher parallel rate at September 30,
2010. Changing the exchange rate to 4.3 from 2.15 had the effect of lowering net sales by approximately 1% and
EPS by approximately $0.08 in FY2010. We expect foreign exchange from Venezuela to negatively affect net
sales in FH1 2011, at least until the 2010 currency devaluation annualizes. Management expects an $0.08
negative impact to EPS in FY2011 from Venezuela (similar to FY2010).
We do not expect the January 1, 2011, devaluation to be a headwind to net sales. However, there will
likely be continued profitability pressures for Procter & Gamble to the extent the subsidiary imported goods at the
prior 2.6 rate and dependant on the ability of the subsidiary to raise local prices to maintain margin.
When examining the accounting of companies with net monetary assets located in Venezuela, we believe
investors should assume (1) all planned settlements of U.S. dollar-denominated liabilities by Venezuelan
subsidiaries are done at the parallel rate and (2) that remaining net monetary assets of Venezuelan subsidiaries
are valued at the official rate (assuming these net monetary assets will be repatriated). Clearly investors must
monitor (1) availability of foreign exchange at the official rate and (2) the spread between the official and
parallel rates. As the government effectively controls both the official and parallel rates, we believe the more
conservative approach would be to value all net monetary assets of Venezuelan subsidiaries at the parallel rate.
Pricing
While we believe consumer trade-down and trade-related spending has stabilized, when coupled with a likely
sub-par and elongated economic recovery, the ability for the HPC industry to take pricing as an offset to input
cost pressures is likely to be very gradual. We believe the key to near- and long-term pricing power remains
actual or perceived innovation, as price increases are most easily accepted by consumers (and retailers) when
matched with new product introductions.
While trade spending fluctuations are generally temporary, list pricing changes are more permanent in nature.
Procter & Gamble was most aggressive with list price adjustments in the quarter ended December 2009,
lowering prices for the Duracell, Cheer, and Tide (large sizes) brands, and making adjustments for products in
the Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa (CEEMEA) region. In FY2011, pricing should turn positive
as these changes are annualized. Management prefers to match price increases in conjunction with
introduction of new premium innovation and occasionally prices to offset foreign currency pressures.
Management expects pricing to be neutral to slightly positive for FY2011, with pricing likely to be
negative in FH1 and turn positive in FH2 as the company annualizes many of the strategic adjustments made
in fall 2009. In Procter & Gamble’s segment reporting, the “price” impact to sales includes both list price
changes and trade spending (promotions).
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WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
2010 -2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 8.0% 4.0%
2011E 7.0% 5.3% 4.5% 4.6% 5.4%
2012E 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
2013E 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0%
Price
2010 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% -1.0% 1.0%
2011E -1.0% -0.9% 0.1% 0.3% -0.4%
2012E 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
2013E 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Mix/Other
2010 1.0% -2.0% -2.0% -3.0% -1.0%
2011E -2.0% -1.0% -0.5% -0.6% -1.0%
2012E -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0%
2013E -0.8% -0.8% -0.8% -0.8% -0.8%
Organic Growth
2010 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
2011E 4.0% 3.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.0%
2012E 4.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
2013E 4.3% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5%
Net sales for Procter & Gamble grew 1.6% yr/yr in FQ1 2011, with organic sales increasing 4%. Organic sales
were made up of (1) a 7% increase in volume (excluding acquisitions and divestitures), (2) a 1% headwind from
price, and (3) a 2% negative impact from mix and other. In FQ1 2011, Procter & Gamble saw 6-8% organic sales
growth in developing markets, compared to 1% organic sales growth in developed markets.
Management believes organic sales growth of 4-6% is achievable in FY2011, in line with the
company’s long-term guidance. However, market growth is the biggest uncertainty for sales, particularly
domestically. In FQ1 2011, domestic market growth was only 1% (and slowing sequentially), and if it stayed at
that level for the full-year, sales would be at the low end of guidance, all things equal. FQ2 2011 organic growth
is expected to be up 3-5%, with strong volume momentum continuing, partially offset by mix and pricing.
Volume trends have been extremely strong for Procter & Gamble, improving sequentially in every quarter of
FY2010, up 8% in FQ4 2010, the strongest volume growth in 22 quarters. While volume moderated slightly
sequentially, to up 7% in FQ1 2011, it was the first time in five years that P&G has had volume growth above 7%
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WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
for three consecutive quarters. In FQ1 2011, organic volume in developed markets grew 4%, and developing
markets grew 12%. Volume increased in all major geographic regions, 16 of the top 17 countries, five of six
business segments, and 20 of 23 billion-dollar brands. Volume improvements will likely moderate as
comparisons are getting tougher. This may be partially offset by continued volume growth from innovation, as
manufacturing was initially constrained on some new products (i.e., Fusion ProGlide).
Pricing has stabilized the past few quarters, declining 1% in every quarter since FQ3 2010. In FQ1 2011,
management attributed falling prices to earlier price reductions to improve consumer value that have not yet
annualized, partially offset by increases taken in developing regions to offset currency devaluations. Pricing will
likely begin to be a small positive contributor to sales once price adjustments annualize beginning in FQ3 2011.
Mix had an increasingly negative impact to organic sales as FY2010 progressed, though it slightly eased
sequentially in FQ1 2011, to a 2% yr/yr headwind from a 3% yr/yr headwind in FQ4 2010. FQ1 2011 negative
mix was made up of 1% negative impact from geographic mix and a 0.5% negative impact from both product
and price-tier mix. Geographic mix becomes a headwind for P&G when sales growth in developing markets is
greater than in developed markets, causing lower average selling prices for the firm. This will likely continue as
developing markets continue to outperform and as Procter & Gamble expands distribution in emerging
markets. Product mix can be a headwind if growth is faster in categories with lower prices per unit. Finally,
price-tier mix should continue be a headwind as the company introduces more mid-tier or value products. In
addition, price-tier mix can shift as consumers trade up or down to different priced products within categories.
Historically, mix has been approximately a 1% headwind to net sales.
New Products
With the probability of an elongated period before a new material consumer trade-up cycle emerges in
developed economies, the key to near- and long-term pricing power remains actual or perceived innovation as
price increases are most easily accepted by consumers (and retailers) when matched with new product
introductions. Manufacturers will likely find the most success with new products that have an easily
communicated value-add for the consumer focused in niche categories.
Procter & Gamble has a remarkable track record of product innovation, driven by the company’s successful
research & development efforts and supported by significant advertising spending. Despite the recession, the
company continued to develop innovative products across all levels of the price spectrum. The most important
recent introductions were Crest 3D White, the Pantene restage, Pampers Dry Max, Gillette Fusion ProGlide
razors and ProSeries Skin and Shave Care, and Tide with Acti-Lift. All of these major introductions took place
in FQ3 2010 and FQ4 2010, meaning there will likely be a carryover impact to FY2011 results as more
consumers try and repurchase the new products and the company expands distribution to existing markets.
Management appears to have worked through some initial manufacturing constraints on some new products
(i.e., Fusion ProGlide), which should provide ongoing volume momentum. Management has already
announced a few upcoming product introductions for the United States, including a powder formula upgrade
and compaction in February and Secret Natural Mineral Collection in March. We expect additional new
products to be announced for CY2011, but until then, management’s attention will likely be focused on
increasing market share and distribution for products already launched.
In addition to developing new premium products, management has increasingly focused on developing
products for mid-tier or value price levels. Examples include Pampers Simply Dry, Simply Venus Disposables,
Always Simply Fits, and Bounty and Charmin Basics. Procter & Gamble has also introduced a number of
value products in India, including Tide Naturals and Gillette Guard. We expect additional mid-tier or value
innovations as the domestic consumer remains very price sensitive and the company continues to tailor
products for developing markets at lower price points.
Exhibit 3.
PG New Product Introductions
New Mid-Tier or Value Geographic
Date Product Segment Geographic Area Product Innovation Expansion
2009
Feb Oral-B Toothpaste Health & Well-Being Benelux X
2009 Always Simply Fits Health & Well-Being X X
2009 Ariel Professional Household Care Turkey and Hungary X
2009 Bounce Dryer Bar Household Care X
2009 Crest and Oral-B Pro-Health Toothpaste Health & Well-Being Mexico X
2009 Febreze Air Effects Household Care Japan X
2009 Gillette Mach 3 Beauty & Grooming Developing Markets X X
2009 h&s Hair & Scalp Beauty & Grooming Japan X
2009 Olay Men's Solutions Beauty & Grooming China X
2009 Olay Natural White Household Care India and ASEAN X
2009 Olay Pro-X Beauty & Grooming Greater China X
2009 Oral-B Pro-Suade Health & Well Being Brazil (Pharmacy) X
2009 Pampers Simply Dry Household Care X X
2009 Pampers Sleep and Play Household Care X X
2009 Tide Stain Release Household Care U.S. X
Aug Crest Pro-Health Health & Well-Being China X
2H09 Ariel/Dash Stain Remover Household Care Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, X
and Spain
Nov Tide Naturals Household Care India X X
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WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Exhibit 3. - continued
PG New Product Introductions
New Mid-Tier or Value Geographic
Date Product Segment Geographic Area Product Innovation Expansion
2010
FY10 Olay Household Care 15 New Countries X
Feb Ariel with Actilift Household Care U.K., France, Germany, Spain, Italy, X
Greece, Portugal, Austria,
Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, and
Denmark
Feb Bounty Improvements (Bounty Basic, Bounty Napkins, Household Care U.S. and Canada X
and Bounty Huge Roll)
Feb Bounty Improvements (Bounty Extra Soft) Household Care Canada X
Feb Fekkai Advanced Beauty & Grooming U.S. X
Feb Olay Professional Pro-X Intensive Wrinkle Protocol Beauty & Grooming North America and Greater China X
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WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Exhibit 3. - continued
PG Upcoming New Product Introductions
New Mid-Tier or Value Geographic
Date Product Segment Geographic Area Product Innovation Expansion
2011
Feb Powder Laundry Compaction Household Care U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico X
Feb Tide and Gain Powder Formula Upgrades Household Care U.S. X
Feb Ultra Era Powder Detergent Household Care U.S. X X
Mar Secret Natural Mineral Collection Beauty & Grooming U.S. X
2012
Mar Pantene Restage Beauty & Grooming Expand to All Major Markets by March X
2012
Apr Gillette Fusion Pro-Glide Beauty & Grooming Expand to Over 40 Countries X
Sep Olay Beauty & Grooming Expand to 100 Markets X
Source: Company reports and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Note: Date reflects calendar year, unless otherwise indicated
Domestically, consumers have shifted their buying patterns toward the club channel, mass merchants, and
dollar stores as they seek out low unit or absolute prices. We believe management will focus on increasing
distribution in these faster-growing channels and look to expand to all possible domestic category per channel
combinations. We believe that Procter & Gamble will not only continue to gain shelf space through the
introduction of new products, but should benefit as retailers consolidate among major manufacturers. Wal-
Mart/Sam’s Club represents approximately 16% of Procter & Gamble’s total revenue.
Internationally, viewing revenue geographically helps illustrate Procter & Gamble’s growth opportunities.
10
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Geographic Net Sales 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
United States $20,334 $21,198 $21,853 $23,688 $25,342 $29,462 $31,946 $31,314 $29,600 $30,000
Canada 1,322 1,698 1,568 2,016 1,894 2,602 3,233 3,020 2,611 3,154
North America 21,656 22,896 23,421 25,704 27,236 32,064 35,179 34,334 32,211 33,154
Western Europe 7,632 9,108 12,338 13,618 15,691 17,589 19,620 16,106 16,577
Japan 1,607 2,169 2,570 2,837 2,729 3,059 2,452 3,068 3,158
Other Asia 7,669 8,683
Asia 10,737 11,841
Mexico 2,301 2,368
Other Latin America 4,602 4,736
Latin America 6,902 7,104
CEEMEA 10,737 10,262
Total Latin America/CEEMEA 8,034 8,675 10,795 13,050 17,738 20,649 25,342 17,640 17,366
International 17,719 17,273 19,952 25,704 29,505 36,158 41,297 47,414 44,483 45,784
Net Sales $39,375 $40,169 $43,373 $51,407 $56,741 $68,222 $76,476 $81,748 $76,694 $78,938
Percentage Change
United States 1.5% 4.2% 3.1% 8.4% 7.0% 16.3% 8.4% -2.0% -5.5% 1.4%
Canada -13.9% 28.4% -7.6% 28.5% -6.0% 37.4% 24.2% -6.6% -13.5% 20.8%
North America 0.4% 5.7% 2.3% 9.7% 6.0% 17.7% 9.7% -2.4% -6.2% 2.9%
Western Europe 19.3% 35.5% 10.4% 15.2% 12.1% 11.5% -17.9% 2.9%
Japan 35.0% 18.5% 10.4% -3.8% 12.1% -19.8% 25.1% 2.9%
Other Asia 13.2%
Asia 10.3%
Mexico 2.9%
Other Latin America 2.9%
Latin America 2.9%
CEEMEA -4.4%
Total Latin America/CEEMEA 8.0% 24.4% 20.9% 35.9% 16.4% 22.7% -30.4% -1.5%
International -3.6% -2.5% 15.5% 28.8% 14.8% 22.5% 14.2% 14.8% -6.2% 2.9%
Net Sales -1.4% 2.0% 8.0% 18.5% 10.4% 20.2% 12.1% 6.9% -6.2% 2.9%
11
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Internationally, management has divided its worldwide operations into five geographic units: North America,
42% of FY2010 sales; Western Europe, 21%; Asia, 15%; Latin America, 9%; and CEEMEA, 13%. Procter &
Gamble’s products are sold in more than 180 countries worldwide, with on-the-ground operations in 80
countries through its Market Development Organization. Over the past ten years (FY2001-10), revenue in the
United States has increased 47.5%, while international revenue (including Canada) has increased 157.0%,
although growth rates are likely affected by acquisitions and divestitures during that time frame. International
revenue (including Canada) now represents 62.0% of revenue, versus 48.4% a decade ago. International sales
likely will continue to outpace domestic revenue, due to higher growth rates of developing economies and as
the company expands in emerging markets to achieve its goal of serving 5 billion consumers by 2015. Given
Procter & Gamble’s growing developing and emerging market presence, international distribution gains should
largely be achieved through (1) entering new markets, likely working with local companies and distributors;
(2) expanding penetration with large retailers and neighborhood stores to effectively gain share of the 35%
controlled by local manufacturers in developing and emerging markets; and (3) expanding product selection
(geographic white-space expansion) in existing countries.
Procter & Gamble has a growing exposure to developing and emerging (D&E) markets, deriving approximately
33.0% of sales from those countries (defined as all markets outside North America, i.e., the United States and
Canada, Western Europe, and Japan). Management expects revenue from D&E markets to grow to nearly 50%
of sales by FY2020. Given that exposure to D&E markets is currently smaller than for other close competitors
(i.e., Unilever, Colgate, and Henkel), we believe this allows for the company a greater relative runway to
increase D&E revenue. Sales in D&E markets totaled $26.0 billion in FY2010, up 2.9% from $25.3 billion in
FY2009. According to Procter & Gamble, the company had a 19% share as of FY 2009 in D&E markets on an
aggregate basis and is growing steadily by about half a share point per year. Growth rates are significantly
stronger in D&E markets, with organic market growth 6-8% in D&E markets, compared to organic market
growth of 1% in developed markets in FQ1 2011. Management’s strategy is to continue to increase D&E market
sales by (1) increasing penetration, (2) migrating consumers up the product scale, (3) increasing market share,
and (4) enlarging markets.
Exhibit 6.
Developing & Emerging Mkt Sales
(% of total sales)
Retailers in D&E markets are generally dominated by small neighborhood stores, or high frequency stores,
which would be Procter & Gamble’s single largest customer if they were a single retailer. Large mass
merchandisers continue to expand into higher growth and less developed regions, which should also benefit
the company (e.g., Wal-Mart’s recent proposed offer to buy Massmart Holdings, Ltd. in Africa) given strong
relationships with these retailers. Generally, when entering a new market, Procter & Gamble works with local
wholesalers, while the company builds infrastructure and relationships with governments, retail trade, and
distributors. Detergents, baby care, and feminine care are normally among the first products sold as the fast
purchase cycle of these products helps drive volume and scale. While well-capitalized competitors already have
established businesses in many D&E markets, we believe Procter & Gamble will likely first take market share
from smaller local brands.
Procter & Gamble is investing aggressively in D&E markets. The company has grown appreciably in
India, while competing against well-established competitors, achieving No. 1 market share in several
categories. Business has also benefitted by a number of new products developed specifically for Indian
consumers, including Tide Naturals and Gillette Guard. P&G expanded distribution of a number of its brands
into Brazil over the past two years, including Oral-B, Pantene, Gillette, Naturella, Head & Shoulders, and
Olay. China also represents a major opportunity as the company currently has distribution reaching only one-
half to two-thirds of potential consumers.
12
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Sales Opportunity
> $60 Billion
$41
60
Sales Opportunity
$20
Detergents Shampoos
Per Capita Consumption (US $) | 2010 Per Capita Consumption (US $) | 2010
$23.4
$19.9
$11.3
$15.7 $9.8
$6.6
$3.9 $2.3
$1.9 $1.9 $1.6
$0.5
India Indonesia China Brazil Germany U.S. India Indonesia China U.S. Brazil Germany
So urce: Euro mo nito r So urce: Euro mo nito r
Skin Care
Per Capita Consumption (US $) | 2010
$55.4
$32.0
$21.3
$6.6
$0.6 $2.0
13
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
New Categories
Management is developing plans to enter new categories wherein P&G does not compete, which could provide
incremental sales opportunities. Some recent examples include Tide Dry Cleaners and Mr. Clean Car Washes.
Also, the company is working to create completely new categories, as it has done in the past with Crest
Whitestrips, Febreze, and Swiffer.
Margin
With likely mid-single-digit net sales growth for Procter & Gamble, margin improvement is an
important factor to achieve management’s long-term goal of high-single-digit to low-double-
digit EPS growth. Procter & Gamble has seen only nominal gross margin improvement over the past several
years, growing to 52.0% in FY2010 from 50.9% in FY 2005, although trends in gross margin over time are hard
to decipher with the recent divestitures of Folgers and the global pharmaceutical business. Procter & Gamble’s
gross margin has consistently been among the highest in the industry.
Exhibit 8.
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
So urce: Co mpany repo rts and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates C HD C LX
No te: A djusted to exclude restructuring charges and o ther o ne-time items
No te: CL gro ss margin is adjusted to include shipping and handling co sts CL PG
We believe Procter & Gamble will likely continue to increase its gross margin over the next several years, led by
(1) ongoing internal cost-saving initiatives, (2) improving business and product mix, (3) manufacturing
leveraging of distribution expansion, and (4) compaction. Collectively, these benefits will likely be tempered by
increases in input costs and foreign exchange.
Procter & Gamble does not publish gross margin targets, although management believes both gross margin
and operating margin should improve in FY2011. Management thinks specific gross margin targets can create
poor performance over time and instead maintains the goal of driving shareholder value.
Scale is the most important factor to improving margin; therefore, the company has a strategic advantage
versus competitors given its size. Due to scale advantages, the company’s billion dollar brands have higher
margin, on average, than other products. Higher margin also tends to be correlated with vertically tiered
portfolios. By expanding its portfolio to encompass products ranging from value to premium, the company can
reach more customers, building scale. It also provides management the flexibility for innovation-driven pricing
at the premium end of the product spectrum.
Geographically, after-tax emerging market margin is comparable to (and in some cases, higher
than) developed market margin. While operating margin is worse for emerging markets, lower tax rates
in emerging markets improve after-tax returns. For example, Procter & Gamble’s business in China has higher
margin than both Western Europe and the company average. While expansion into developing markets may be
a near-term headwind to operating margin expansion, market penetration and category expansion should
drive scale, which should moderate the impact of these headwinds over time. Longer term, emerging market
gross and operating margin should benefit as consumers increase per-capita spending and trade up to more
expensive products.
14
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Materials $24
Manufacturing & Logistics $13
Overhead $12
Advertising $8
Source: Company reports
Organizational excellence initiatives are focused in four general areas: (1) simplify the business, (2) simplify
processes, (3) productivity via technology, and (4) cost breakthroughs.
Procter & Gamble continues to execute initiatives to simplify its business by creating standard manufacturing
platforms and reducing the number of brands, stock-keeping units (SKU), formulas, materials, and suppliers.
Specific projects and potential annual savings detailed by management include the following:
Reduce the number of manufacturing platforms to 150 from 300, a $500 million opportunity
Reduce the number of brands in the portfolio (targeting the 150 brands that are not considered leadership
brands)
Remove half the number of small SKUs (currently 50,000 SKUs, but more than 40% contribute less than
1% of volume), a $200 million opportunity
Reduce the number of formulas and package specifications by more than 20% (currently more than
16,000 formulas and 140,000 material and package specifications), a $100 million opportunity
Standardize the color library (reduce plastic colors to 1,500 from 4,000 and paint ink colors to 200 from
10,000), a $60 million opportunity
Reduce the number of suppliers to less than 50,000 from 75,000
Other initiatives focus on efforts to simplify processes. Specific projects and potential annual savings detailed
by management include the following:
Centralize production and distribution planning to five regional centers from more than 300 locations, a
$160 million opportunity
Simplify packaging development ($5 billion spent on packaging materials and $250 million on
development costs annually) by reducing costs, time, and capacity
Target 50% bigger, better, and faster initiatives, 50% fewer smaller initiatives, and 50% capacity released
for big initiatives
Simplify internal planning and forecasting planning, a $20 million opportunity
15
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Management is utilizing technology to drive productivity. Efforts in this area include (1) utilizing real-time
business intelligence, (2) building capabilities to enhance relationships with consumers, (3) increasing speed
to shelf, and (4) standardizing data flow to drive employee productivity. Examples include using virtual
shelving to reduce product mock-ups and video conferencing (saving $50 million in travel costs annually).
The final set of initiatives is driven by cost breakthroughs. Specific projects and potential annual savings
detailed by management include the following:
“Control tower” transportation management, a $200 million opportunity
Utilize alternate modes of transportation (increase rail shipments to 30% from less than 10%)
Develop alternate materials by working with suppliers (i.e., a new polymer developed for laundry powder
saved $40 million annually)
Develop alternative packaging (i.e., renewable resources)
Improve employee productivity
Business And Product Mix
Management should also achieve gross margin improvement through a gradual shift in business mix. Procter &
Gamble should see margin improvement as it prioritizes its investments toward higher-margin businesses and
a product mix shift as consumers begin to trade up to higher-margin premium products. All things equal,
margin should also improve as the company continues to introduce new products, as new products are
generally accretive to gross margin.
Distribution Leverage
Additional penetration of international markets should drive manufacturing volume leverage accretion to gross
margin. Clearly this will likely be a more gradual but both immediate- and long-term contributor to gross
margin expansion. As management focuses on increasing international operations and filling geographic
white-space, we expect gross margin to converge upward for lower-margin regions, driven by operational scale
and improving product mix.
Compaction
Laundry compaction should provide additional opportunities for cost savings. Procter & Gamble is introducing
a 33% compaction across all powder laundry detergent brands in North America beginning in February 2011,
which will likely be expanded to other global markets. Powder detergent is a shrinking segment of the laundry
market, representing approximately 40% of the U.S. market and more than 50% of the global market. Another
wave of liquid laundry compaction would likely provide a more significant benefit to margin, although it may
not provide the same degree it did in past cycles, due to the law of diminishing returns. We believe compaction
will continue to evolve across products slowly, as manufacturers attempt to ensure that they hold shelf space,
but ultimately, the resultant cost savings benefit to manufacturer and retailer margin should continue to drive
ongoing rounds of compaction.
M&A
Strategic acquisitions have been identified by management as a high priority. Since Procter &
Gamble’s acquisition of Gillette in October 2005, Procter & Gamble has made only small acquisitions, with the
largest being Ambi-Pur in July 2010 and management has indicated that it favors small acquisitions. While we
do not think management is fundamentally opposed to large acquisitions, we believe they are a low probability.
In addition, we believe there are simply not many sizeable acquisition candidates left that would not raise anti-
trust issues. When looking to acquire a company, management has outlined the following requirements:
ŀ Enhance top-line growth
ŀ Enhance company margin
ŀ Global business, or has the ability to globalize
ŀ Adjacent to current segments (not outside the company’s core competencies)
In addition, the acquisition must be available for purchase (Procter & Gamble does not make hostile
acquisitions), able to clear anti-trust regulators, and financially viable. When examining valuation,
management typically uses a simple net present value (NPV) calculation based on long-term cash flow into
perpetuity. The company is generally very conservative with top-line growth projections (viewed as the biggest
unknown). Once the acquisition is made, P&G has a strong record of driving out costs, due to experience
integrating numerous prior acquisitions, along with leveraging the company’s scale. Management has a wish
list and is ready if the right acquisition appears.
Competition for viable acquisition candidates is generally from three sources: (1) other companies in the
industry, (2) pharmaceutical companies looking for consumer exposure, and (3) private equity firms looking to
put capital to work in stable, growing free cash flow sectors. In addition, pharmaceutical companies have been
more active in the space.
16
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Procter & Gamble has been active recently making divestitures, highlighted by the divestitures of Folgers and
its global pharmaceutical business. We believe future divestitures will continue to be made on a periodic basis,
in businesses that are lower-growth, lower-margin, and outside the company’s core categories. Pringles seems
to be a brand that could potentially be divested as it is the last remaining food brand owned by P&G. However,
we believe any deal would have to compensate the company for what (1) would likely be a large tax impact
from a sale, and (2) we believe are above food industry operating margin.
Exhibit 10.
Acquisitions
Price (in millions)
Date Company Cash Other Total Notes Segment
Jun-04 China Joint Venture $1,850 $1,850 Acquired the remaining 20% stake in the China joint venture from its
partner, Hutchison Whampoa China Ltd
Jun-04 Wella AG $1,110 $1,110 Entered into a Domination and Profit Transfer Agreement in which the Beauty Care
Company is entitled to exercise full operating control and receive 100% of
the future earnings of Wella.
2004 Pharmaceutical business in Spain Acquired a pharmaceutical business in Spain Health, Baby & Family
Care
2004 Fabric and home care business in Acquired a fabric and home care business in Europe Health, Baby & Family
Europe Care
2005 Glad joint venture Increased ownership in the Glad joint venture with The Clorox Company Household Care
Oct-05 Gillette $53,430 $53,430 Acquired Gillette, which markets consumer products such as Gillette razors Various
and blades including the Mach3 and Venus brands, Duracel batteries, Oral-
B manual and power toothbrushes, and Braun shavers and small
appliances.
Q106 Wella AG $0 $0 During Q106, a portion of the remaining shares were tendered, resulting Beauty Care
in a $944 million reduction in our liability under the Domination Agreement
and ownership of 96.9% of all Wella outstanding shares
2006 Minor acquistions Several minor acquisitions in fabric care, health care, and Duracell Various
2006 Licensing agreements Licensing agreements with Dolce & Gabbana and Gucci
2007 Minor acquistions Several minor acquisitions, primarily in Beauty and Health Care Beauty and Health
Q408 Frederic Fekkai Acquired Frederic Fekkai, a premium hair care brand Beauty & Grooming
Q109 Nioxin Acquired Nioxin, a leader in the scalp care professional hair care market Beauty & Grooming
Q210 MDVIP Acquired MDVIP, a physicians' network focused on preventative medicine Health & Well-Being
May-10 Natura Pet Products, Inc. On 05.05.10, agreed to acquire Natura Pet Products, Inc., a privately-held Health & Well-Being
pet food business based in Davis, CA. Natura's brands include Innova,
Evo, California Natural, Healthwise, Mother Nature and Karma. These
brands are sold in a limited number of pet specialty stores and through
veterinarians, mainly in the United States and Canada. Terms of the deal
were not disclosed.
Jul-10 Ambi Pur $470 $470 In July 2010, the Company acquired Ambi Pur, a leading global air care Household Care
brand with a presence in 80 countries, as well as several toilet care
products with a strong presence in Western Europe and Asia from the Sara
Lee Corporation for 320 million euro, or $470 million. The Ambi Pur brand
generated annual sales of approximately 260 million euro and estimated
operating income of 24 million euro for the year ending June 2009, using
an exchange rate of 1.37 dollars per euro.
Divestitures
Price (in millions)
Date Company Cash Other Total Notes Segment
Q105 Juice business Health, Baby & Family
Divested its juice business including the Sunny Delight and Punica brands Care
to J.W. Childs Associates, L.P., a Boston-based private equity firm. Gain on
divestiture was $0.03 or $83.0 million after-tax.
Q206 SpinBrush Divestiture Divested the SpinBrush battery toothbrush business to Church & Dwight Beauty & Health Care
Co., Inc. as part of the regulatory approval process with the European
Commission as part of the Gillette acquisition
2006 Rembrandt and Right Guard brands Various
Divested Rembrandt, a Gillette oral care product line, and Right Guard and
other Gillette deodorant brands as part of the regulatory review process
with the FTC as part of the Gillette acquisition
2006 Korea Paper Business Divested its Korea paper business Household Care
Q107 Pert and Sure Sold Pert business in North America and Sure Beauty & Health Care
2007 Nonstrategic Beauty brands Divested several nonstrategic minor Beauty brands Beauty and Health
Q108 Adult incontinence business in Japan Sold its adult incontinence business in Japan Health & Well-Being
Q208 Western European Family Care Divested its Western European Family Care business Household Care
business
Q109 ThermaCare, Dantrium, and Dryel Divested the ThermaCare, Dantrium, and Dryel brands Various
Nov-08 Folgers $2,466 $2,466 Divested the Coffee business into the J.M. Smucker Company in an all- Health & Well-Being
stock reverse Morris Trust transaction.
Q209 Noxzema and Western European Tissue Sold the Noxzema and Western European Tissue businesses Various
17
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
18
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Exhibit 11.
Reporting Segments Business Units Categories Adjacencies Brands International
6 16 38 74 Brands
Household Care Baby & Family Care Baby Care Diapers Diapers
Business Units: 5 Baby Wipes Baby Wipes Luvs**
Categories: 12 Dodot
Childrens' Personal Pampers*
Adjacencies: 18
Care
Family Care Tissues Tissues Puffs**
Toilet Paper Toilet Paper Charmin*
Paper Towels Paper Towels Bounty*
Fabric & Home Care Fabric Care Additives Additives Tide* Ace*
Bleach Ace*
Fabric Enhancers Fabric Enhancers Bounce** Fairy
Downy* Gala
Febreze Lenor
Gain*
Laundry Laundry Cheer Ace*
Dreft Laundry Ariel*
Era Alomatik
Gain* Bold**
Ivory Snow Bonux
Tide* Dash**
Daz
Fab
Myth
Rindex
Salvo
Sarasa
Tempo
Vizir
Home Care Air Care Air Care Febreze** Ambi Pur
Dish Care Hand Dish Wash Dawn* Dreft Dish
Gain* Fairy
Ivory
Joy
Auto Dish Wash Cascade** Fairy
Surface Care Cleaning Systems
Hard Surface Wipes Swiffer**
19
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
20
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Market Share
Procter & Gamble holds the largest market share of the global household and personal care market.
Exhibit 12.
PG Global Market Share (FY 2009)
Market Size
Segment (in billions) Market Share Rank
Exhibit 13.
PG Global Market Share (FY 2010)
Market Size
Business Unit (in billions) Market Share Rank
Household Care
Fabric Care $74 29% #1
Home Care $40 18% #2
Baby Care $36 34% #1
Family Care (1) $19 31% #1
Batteries $16 26% #1
Source: Company reports
(1) Includes only North America and Mexico
Exhibit 14.
PG Global Market Share (FY 2010)
Market Size
Business Unit (in billions) Market Share Rank
Health Care
Oral Care $32 22% #2
Feminine Care $19 34% #1
Personal Health Care $41 6% #2
Source: Company reports
Procter & Gamble has approximately 20% market share in markets in which it competes today. Management
expects to increase market share 10-20 bps annually in FY2011 and onward, with market-share gains
contributing 0.5-1.0% in incremental annual sales growth. Market-share gains have accelerated in recent
quarters and are broad-based, with share growth seen in all geographic regions in the latest quarter. In FQ1
2011, Procter & Gamble held or grew market share in 13 of its 17 top countries and 17 of its 23 billion-dollar
brands, and saw share growth in 60% of its brand portfolio.
Private label goods are competitors to Procter & Gamble, although they command only a small percentage of
the market. According to the company’s stats, branded products account for 88% of the sales in the categories
in which Procter & Gamble competes. Geographically, the private label business is most developed in Western
Europe. Private label goods did experience an uptick in demand during the recession; however, share gains
have eroded as the recession ended and consumers returned to branded goods. Private label market share was
flat to down globally in FQ1 2011.
Approximately 50% of Procter & Gamble’s domestic sales are tracked by Nielsen.
Sales And Earnings Seasonality
Since FY2007, Procter & Gamble’s segment sales and earnings appear to be slightly skewed toward FH1,
perhaps reflecting slight holiday seasonality. Segment earnings before taxes demonstrate a similar seasonal
pattern over the FY2007-FY2010 periods. Although none of the company’s segments are highly seasonal,
certain products are seasonal in nature, including batteries (fabric care and home care), appliances
(grooming), and prestige fragrances (beauty), where sales are typically higher in the fall due to the holidays. In
addition, anticipation or occurrence of natural disasters, such as hurricanes, can drive unusually high demand
for batteries.
21
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Exhibit 15.
Seasonality of Sales: Avg. 2007-2010
Segment Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Beauty and Grooming GBU
Beauty 25.1% 26.2% 23.9% 24.8%
Grooming 25.4% 26.9% 23.0% 24.6%
Health and Well-Being GBU
Health Care 25.7% 26.0% 24.4% 23.9%
Snacks and Pet Care 24.2% 26.1% 24.3% 25.4%
Segment Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Beauty and Grooming GBU
Beauty 26.5% 30.6% 22.0% 20.9%
Grooming 27.7% 28.3% 22.2% 21.7%
Health and Well-Being GBU
Health Care 27.2% 27.7% 24.2% 20.9%
Snacks and Pet Care 21.3% 27.7% 24.4% 26.6%
Household Care GBU
Fabric Care and Home Care 27.5% 25.6% 23.2% 23.7%
Baby Care and Family Care 26.7% 25.0% 26.4% 21.9%
Total Business Segments 26.9% 27.4% 23.6% 22.1%
Corporate 20.9% 23.0% 22.9% 33.2%
Total Company 27.7% 28.0% 23.7% 20.6%
22
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Procter & Gamble’s global research & development footprint has historically been located in developed markets
(in 27 technical centers worldwide). Management has recently undertaken a project to shift its footprint to better
match expected growth in D&E markets, planning on doubling its presence in the coming years. This should allow
the organization to be closer to D&E market consumers and harvest highly talented local graduates.
Exhibit 16. Procter & Gamble Historical Advertising And SG&A Expense
($ millions) Annual Selling, General and Administrative Expense
SG&A Expense 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net Sales $39,375 $40,169 $43,373 $51,407 $56,741 $68,222 $76,476 $81,748 $76,694 $78,938
SG&A Expense
Advertising 3,729 3,782 4,487 5,466 5,929 7,122 7,937 8,583 7,519 8,576
Research and Development 1,769 1,601 1,665 1,802 1,940 2,075 2,112 2,212 1,864 1,950
Other SG&A 6,090 6,669 6,857 9,614 10,531 12,651 14,291 14,780 13,247 14,193
Total SG&A Expense $11,588 $12,052 $13,009 $16,882 $18,400 $21,848 $24,340 $25,575 $22,630 $24,719
Percent Change
Net Sales -1.4% 2.0% 8.0% 18.5% 10.4% 20.2% 12.1% 6.9% -6.2% 2.9%
SG&A Expense
Advertising -4.5% 1.4% 18.6% 21.8% 8.5% 20.1% 11.4% 8.1% -12.4% 14.1%
Research and Development -6.8% -9.5% 4.0% 8.2% 7.7% 7.0% 1.8% 4.7% -15.7% 4.6%
Other SG&A -4.3% 9.5% 2.8% 40.2% 9.5% 20.1% 13.0% 3.4% -10.4% 7.1%
Total SG&A Expense -4.8% 4.0% 7.9% 29.8% 9.0% 18.7% 11.4% 5.1% -11.5% 9.2%
Percent of Sales
SG&A Expense
Advertising 9.5% 9.4% 10.3% 10.6% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 9.8% 10.9%
Research and Development 4.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5%
Other SG&A 15.5% 16.6% 15.8% 18.7% 18.6% 18.5% 18.7% 18.1% 17.3% 18.0%
Total SG&A Expense 29.4% 30.0% 30.0% 32.8% 32.4% 32.0% 31.8% 31.3% 29.5% 31.3%
Manufacturing
Procter & Gamble has a significant global manufacturing presence, with the vast majority of manufacturing
done in-house and only a minimal amount contracted to third parties. The company has 19 new factories under
construction, with about five starting up and five on the drawing board. As with other companies in the
industry, the decision to own local country manufacturing or import from other regions is driven by the
financial trade-off between local manufacturing costs (i.e., labor, input, and foreign exchange) and geo-
political risks, versus incurring transportation and duty costs once a given level of scale is achieved.
Corporate Strategy
Procter & Gamble’s Bob McDonald issued his purpose-inspired growth strategy shortly after taking over as
CEO in 2009. Tied closely to the new growth strategy, the company’s purpose is simply stated: “We will grow
by touching and improving the lives of more consumers in more parts of the world
…more completely.” To
achieve growth, management plans to create new opportunities through the following:
ŀ Growing core businesses
ŀ Winning with underserved and unserved consumers, and
ŀ Developing faster-growing, structurally attractive businesses with global leadership potential
Besides focusing on organically growing the core business (leadership brands) and expanding to underserved
markets, management is trying to capitalize on opportunities in faster-growing businesses in which it already
competes. Management’s stated goal is to continue to shift P&G’s business portfolio toward the beauty and
health market segments and several household care categories. We expect the majority of the company’s
acquisitions and capital investment to take place in these areas.
In line with the company’s new purpose, CEO McDonald has stated the goal of serving 5 billion consumers by
2015. In FY2010, management stated it had reached an additional 200 million consumers, bringing the total
served to 4.2 billion. To reach new underserved consumers, the company plans to implement the following:
ŀ Innovate its product portfolio vertically up and down value tiers, focused specifically on serving price-
conscious consumers with mid-tier and value-tier alternatives
ŀ Introduce the existing product portfolio into new geographic markets, increasing its presence in developing
markets, and
ŀ Broaden brands and enter adjacent categories, building scale, reducing costs, and profitably building
market share
23
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
One of the company’s central goals is to reach new consumers in fast-growing emerging markets, where
consumers are underserved and the company can leverage its existing product portfolio, along with new lower-
priced products to gain penetration and benefit from consumer trade-up as emerging market economies evolve.
Capital Structure And Deployment
Procter & Gamble has historically employed a conservative capital structure, which has resulted in a high grade
credit rating (currently AA3 from Moody’s and AA- from S&P). The company generated more than $13.0
billion in free cash flow in FY2010, or 16.5% of sales. The large nominal amount of free cash gives management
exceptional flexibility to operate its business and return excess cash to shareholders. Within that context,
management has outlined the following priorities for uses of free cash:
ŀ Funding the business
ŀ Dividends
ŀ Strategic acquisitions
ŀ Share repurchase
Funding the business is the highest priority and management intends to keep capital expenditure at or below
4% of sales. The dividend has been increased for 53 consecutive years, and we imagine that the current
management team does not intend to break that streak. Over that time, the average annual increase was 9.5%,
although we are mindful that management also views a payout ratio above 50% as high. Acquisitions are the
next priority, although management currently favors small acquisitions over large ones. We expect acquisitions
and capital investments to be focused in the beauty and health market segments and select household care
categories. Remaining funds have historically been returned to shareholders through share repurchases, with
the company repurchasing approximately $42.4 billion in stock between FY2005 and FY2010.
Exhibit 17.
PG Share Repurchases
Period Shares Price per Share Total Cost
Q105 - - -
Q205 - - -
Q305 29.739 $53.09 $1,579
Q405 26.373 $54.71 $1,443
Q106 100.442 $55.26 $5,550
Q206 61.007 $56.57 $3,451
Q306 26.324 $58.75 $1,546
Q406 108.840 $57.23 $6,229
Q107 4.875 $56.43 $275
Q207 - - -
Q307 - - -
Q407 - - -
Q108 40.329 $64.03 $2,582
Q208 39.912 $71.77 $2,864
Q308 37.310 $67.87 $2,532
Q408 29.705 $67.54 $2,006
Q109 58.865 $66.26 $3,900
Q209 20.568 $64.48 $1,326
Q309 19.037 $58.80 $1,119
Q409 - - -
Q110 - - -
Q210 22.778 $61.65 $1,404
Q310 31.935 $62.62 $2,000
Q410 41.811 $61.85 $2,586
Q111 49.817 $60.28 $3,003
Source: Company Reports and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Note: In millions, except per share data
24
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Guidance
Procter & Gamble has outlined long-term annual diluted EPS growth of high single to low double digits,
assuming a normalized commodity and foreign exchange environment. To achieve this growth, management
expects to realize the following annual objectives:
Organic sales growth of 4-6%
Free cash flow productivity (operating cash flow less capital expenditure, divided by net earnings) of 90%
or greater
Capital spending at or below 4% of net sales
Long-term organic sales growth is expected to be 4-6%, which is made up of 3-4% market growth, plus 1-2% of
share growth. The 3-4% market growth outlook assumption is the biggest swing variable and management
plans to continue to monitor and update long-term assumptions accordingly. Market growth rates will likely be
lower than historical due to depressed growth in developed markets, with expected organic growth in the
developed markets (i.e., United States and Western Europe) of 1-2%, versus historical rates of growth above
3%. Share growth guidance includes 0.5-1.0% (potentially more in some years) of growth from portfolio,
adjacencies, and regimens (innovation) and 0.5%-1.0% from market growth (10-20 bps per year in global
market-share gains).
In FY2011, management expects diluted EPS of $3.91-4.01, up 7-9% yr/yr over FY2010 core EPS of $3.67.
Yr/yr EPS growth rates will likely be heavily influenced by prior-year trends in commodity costs, foreign
exchange rates, and marketing spending. Other elements of management’s FY2011 outlook include the
following:
Organic sales growth of 4-6%
Sales growth of 3-5%
Advertising increasing in line with sales
Gross margin and operating margin improvement
Tax rate of 27-28%, excluding any one-time items
Capital spending approximately 4% of sales
Share repurchases of $6-8 billion
Management’s organic sales growth target of 4-6% includes estimated market growth of 3-4%. Market growth
is expected to be weighted toward developing markets, which are expected to grow 6-8%, versus 1-2% in
developing markets. Mix is expected to continue to have a negative impact on sales growth, due to faster
growth in developing markets. Management expects pricing to be neutral to slightly positive in FY2011. Pricing
will likely be negative in FH1 2011, turning positive in FH2 once yr/yr adjustments have been annualized. The
company plans to continue to monitor and adjust price gaps, depending on competitive actions, and expects
modest changes in promotional spending. Management expects foreign exchange to be a 1-2% headwind to
sales, partially offset by a neutral to 1% benefit from the net impact of acquisitions and divestitures, arriving at
the 3-5% net sales growth estimate. Management has seen a moderating foreign exchange headwind, offset by
an increase in commodity costs.
In FQ2 2011, management estimates diluted EPS of $1.05-1.11, down 5% to up 1% yr/yr, versus core EPS of
$1.10. Core EPS is expected to be down yr/yr, due to difficult base period comparisons, driven primarily by
higher commodity costs and marketing spending as a percentage of sales. Organic sales are estimated to grow
3-5%, with strong volume momentum partially offset by mix and pricing. Net sales are expected to increase
2-4%, with a 2% negative impact from foreign exchange expected to be partially offset by a 1% positive impact
from acquisitions and divestitures.
Estimates
Our FY2011 and FY2012 revenue estimates are in line with the consensus, but slightly below estimates in
FY2013, driven by 4.0%, 4.4%, and 4.5% organic sales growth. Our organic growth estimates are slightly below
the midpoint of long-term guidance, due to expected slow category growth, while EPS estimates should return
to low-double-digit growth, supported by modest margin improvements and share repurchases. Our EPS
estimates are virtually in line with consensus estimates for both FY2011 and FY2012, but slightly above
estimates in FY2013. We believe the Street may not be factoring in as much operating margin expansion or
share repurchases in FY2013.
25
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Exhibit 18.
($ millions)
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) Revenue Estimates (in millions)
Q211 2011 2012 2013
Our Est Street Street Range Our Est Street Street Range Our Est Street Street Range Our Est Street Street Range
$21,686 $21,569 $21,111-$21,729 $81,873 $82,122 $81,032-$83,139 $85,446 $85,728 $84,007-$87,470 $89,321 $91,119 $89,309-$92,140
Source: First Call and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates
Exhibit 19.
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) EPS Estimates
Q211 2011 2012 2013
Our Est Street Street Range Our Est Street Street Range Our Est Street Street Range Our Est Street Street Range
$1.10 $1.10 $1.07-$1.12 $3.98 $3.98 $3.95-$4.03 $4.39 $4.37 $4.28-$4.45 $4.85 $4.79 $4.70-$4.87
Source: First Call and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates
FQ2 2011E. Our EPS estimate of $1.10, which incorporates our estimate of 3.3% organic sales growth.
FY2011E. Our $3.98 EPS estimate is based upon 4.0% organic revenue growth, made up of 5% volume
growth (excluding acquisitions and divestitures), no impact from pricing, and a 1% negative impact from mix
or other. We estimate foreign exchange to be a 1% headwind to sales, offset by a 1% volume benefit from
acquisitions. Total net sales growth is estimated to be 3.7%. We estimate that sales growth will be strongest in
the grooming, health care, beauty, and fabric care and home care segments (up 6%, 5%, 4%, and 4%,
respectively), and weaker in the baby care and family care and snacks and pet care segments (up 3% and down
3%). We believe gross margin will decline 26 bps as higher yr/yr input costs more than offset cost savings from
restructuring initiatives. We believe operating margin will increase 24 bps as selling and administrative
expenses (30.8% of sales) fall due to leverage and overhead savings. We estimate that Procter & Gamble will
repurchase $7.1 billion in stock.
FY2012E. Our $4.39 EPS estimate is based upon 4.4% organic revenue growth, made up of 4% volume
growth (excluding acquisitions and divestitures), a 1% impact from pricing, and a 1% negative impact from mix
and other. We estimate foreign exchange and acquisitions and divestitures will be neutral to sales. Total net
sales growth is estimated to be 4.4%. We estimate sales growth will be strongest in the beauty, grooming, and
fabric care and home care segments (up 5% each), and weaker in the health care, baby care and family care,
and snacks and pet care segments (up 4%, 4%, and 3%). We believe gross margin will expand 25 bps, driven by
cost savings from restructuring initiatives. We believe operating margin will increase 21 bps as selling and
administrative expenses (30.9% of sales) increase slightly as a percentage of sales. We estimate Procter &
Gamble will repurchase $9.1 billion in stock.
FY2013E. Our $4.85 EPS estimate is based upon 4.5% organic revenue growth, made up of 4% volume
growth (excluding acquisitions and divestitures), a 1% impact from pricing, and a 1% negative impact from mix
and other. We estimate foreign exchange and acquisitions and divestitures will be neutral to sales. Total net
sales growth is estimated to be 4.5%. We estimate sales growth will be strongest in the beauty, grooming,
health care, and baby care and family care segments (up 5% each), and weaker in the fabric care and home care
and snacks and pet care segments (up 4% and 3%). We believe gross margin will expand 25 bps, driven by cost
savings from restructuring initiatives. We believe operating margin will increase 17 bps as selling and
administrative expenses (30.9% of sales) increase slightly as a percentage of sales. We estimate Procter &
Gamble will repurchase $9.2 billion in stock.
Stock Performance Seasonality
Median stock performance since 1986 is strongly weighted toward CH2. Relative returns versus the
S&P 500 are best during the August through October period, with the best returns occurring in September. The
stock tends to underperform the market early in the calendar year, with the worst returns usually occurring in
April.
26
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Exhibit 20.
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Note: Since Jan 1986
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Note: Since Jan 1986
27
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Models
Procter & Gamble Co. (Dollars in millions, except per share data)
Segment Net Sales
Updated: 01.19.11
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Segment Net Sales 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Beauty and Grooming GBU
Beauty $15,909 $16,687 $17,889 $19,515 $18,924 $19,491 $20,275 $21,247 $22,258
Grooming 10 5,114 7,437 8,254 7,408 7,631 8,047 8,430 8,830
Health and Well-Being GBU
Health Care 9,880 11,831 13,381 14,578 11,288 11,493 11,941 12,453 13,013
Snacks and Pet Care 4,314 4,383 4,537 3,204 3,114 3,135 3,112 3,213 3,309
Household Care GBU
Fabric Care and Home Care 15,796 18,918 21,469 23,714 23,186 23,805 24,684 25,807 26,871
Baby Care and Family Care 11,652 11,972 12,726 13,898 14,103 14,736 15,067 15,676 16,459
Total Business Segments 57,561 68,905 77,439 83,163 78,023 80,291 83,125 86,826 90,741
Corporate (820) (683) (963) (1,415) (1,329) (1,353) (1,252) (1,380) (1,420)
Total Company $56,741 $68,222 $76,476 $81,748 $76,694 $78,938 $81,873 $85,446 $89,321
Percentage Change
Beauty and Grooming GBU
Beauty 4.9% 7.2% 9.1% -3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.8% 4.8%
Grooming 51040.0% 45.4% 11.0% -10.2% 3.0% 5.5% 4.8% 4.7%
Health and Well-Being GBU
Health Care 19.7% 13.1% 8.9% -22.6% 1.8% 3.9% 4.3% 4.5%
Snacks and Pet Care 1.6% 3.5% -29.4% -2.8% 0.7% -0.7% 3.3% 3.0%
Household Care GBU
Fabric Care and Home Care 19.8% 13.5% 10.5% -2.2% 2.7% 3.7% 4.5% 4.1%
Baby Care and Family Care 2.7% 6.3% 9.2% 1.5% 4.5% 2.2% 4.0% 5.0%
Total Business Segments 19.7% 12.4% 7.4% -6.2% 2.9% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Corporate -16.7% 41.0% 46.9% -6.1% 1.8% -7.5% 10.2% 2.9%
Total Company 20.2% 12.1% 6.9% -6.2% 2.9% 3.7% 4.4% 4.5%
Beauty and Grooming GBU
Beauty
Volume w/ Acquisitions/Divestitures 4% 2% -2% 3% 5% 5% 4%
Volume w/o Acquisitions/Divestitures 4% 3% -2% 4% 5% 5% 4%
Foreign Exchange 3% 6% -4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Price -1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Mix/Other 1% 1% 0% -1% -1% -1% -1%
Net Sales Growth 4.9% 7.2% 9.1% -3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.8% 4.8%
Organic Sales Growth 4% 4% 0% 4% 4% 5% 5%
Grooming
Volume w/ Acquisitions/Divestitures 36% 5% -5% 1% 6% 4% 4%
Volume w/o Acquisitions/Divestitures 2% 6% -5% 1% 6% 4% 4%
Foreign Exchange 4% 7% -6% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Price 2% 2% 4% 4% 1% 2% 2%
Mix/Other 3% -3% -2% -2% 0% -1% -1%
Net Sales Growth 51040.0% 45.4% 11.0% -10.2% 3.0% 5.5% 4.8% 4.7%
Organic Sales Growth 7% 5% -3% 3% 6% 5% 5%
Health and Well-Being GBU
Health Care
Volume w/ Acquisitions/Divestitures 8% 4% -3% 3% 6% 5% 5%
Volume w/o Acquisitions/Divestitures 5% 4% -3% 3% 6% 5% 5%
Foreign Exchange 2% 5% -5% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Price 2% 1% 3% 1% -1% 1% 1%
Mix/Other 1% -1% -2% -2% 0% -1% -1%
Net Sales Growth 19.7% 13.1% 8.9% -22.6% 1.8% 3.9% 4.3% 4.5%
Organic Sales Growth 8% 4% -2% 2% 5% 4% 5%
Snacks and Pet Care
Volume w/ Acquisitions/Divestitures 0% 3% -6% -2% 2% 3% 3%
Volume w/o Acquisitions/Divestitures 0% 3% -6% -2% -1% 3% 3%
Foreign Exchange 2% 4% -4% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Price 1% 1% 9% 3% -1% 1% 2%
Mix/Other 1% -1% -2% -1% -1% -1% -1%
Net Sales Growth 1.6% 3.5% -29.4% -2.8% 0.7% -0.7% 3.3% 3.0%
Organic Sales Growth 2% 3% 1% 0% -3% 3% 3%
Household Care GBU
Fabric Care and Home Care
Volume w/ Acquisitions/Divestitures 10% 6% -3% 6% 7% 5% 4%
Volume w/o Acquisitions/Divestitures 7% 6% -3% 6% 6% 5% 4%
Foreign Exchange 3% 5% -5% -1% -1% 0% 0%
Price 0% 1% 6% -1% -1% 1% 1%
Mix/Other 0% -1% 0% -1% -2% -1% -1%
Net Sales Growth 19.8% 13.5% 10.5% -2.2% 2.7% 3.7% 4.5% 4.1%
Organic Sales Growth 7% 6% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4%
Baby Care and Family Care
Volume w/ Acquisitions/Divestitures 5% 4% 1% 7% 6% 4% 4%
Volume w/o Acquisitions/Divestitures 5% 8% 2% 7% 6% 4% 4%
Foreign Exchange 2% 4% -4% -1% -1% 0% 0%
Price 0% 1% 5% 0% -1% 1% 2%
Mix/Other -1% 0% -1% -2% -1% -1% 0%
Net Sales Growth 2.7% 6.3% 9.2% 1.5% 4.5% 2.2% 4.0% 5.0%
Organic Sales Growth 4% 9% 6% 5% 3% 4% 5%
Corporate -16.7% 41.0% 46.9% -6.1% 1.8% -7.5% 10.2% 2.9%
Total Company
Volume w/ Acquisitions/Divestitures 9% 4% -3% 4% 6% 4% 4%
Volume w/o Acquisitions/Divestitures 5% 5% -2% 4% 5% 4% 4%
Foreign Exchange 2% 5% -4% -1% -1% 0% 0%
Price 1% 1% 5% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Mix/Other 0% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%
Net Sales Growth 20.2% 12.1% 6.9% -6.2% 2.9% 3.7% 4.4% 4.5%
Organic Sales Growth 6% 5% 2% 4% 4% 4% 5%
28
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Procter & Gamble Co. (Dollars in millions, except per share data)
Segment Margin
Updated: 01.19.11
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Segment EBT 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Beauty and Grooming GBU
Beauty $3,051 $3,262 $3,440 $3,528 $3,558 $3,648 $4,008 $4,287 $4,545
Grooming 4 1,176 1,895 2,299 1,900 2,007 2,202 2,334 2,489
Health and Well-Being GBU
Health Care 2,132 2,785 3,365 3,746 2,786 2,809 2,854 3,059 3,246
Snacks and Pet Care 714 627 759 409 388 499 418 442 470
Household Care GBU
Fabric Care and Home Care 3,186 3,905 4,650 5,060 4,663 5,076 5,161 5,539 5,889
Baby Care and Family Care 1,924 2,071 2,291 2,700 2,827 3,270 3,265 3,448 3,690
Total Business Segments 11,011 13,826 16,400 17,742 16,122 17,309 17,907 19,108 20,328
Corporate (1,030) (1,413) (1,690) (2,110) (1,709) (2,262) (1,584) (1,848) (2,200)
Total Company $9,981 $12,413 $14,710 $15,632 $14,413 $15,047 $16,323 $17,261 $18,128
29
Procter & Gamble Co. (Dollars in millions, except per share data)
30
Income Statement
Updated: 01.19.11
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Annual Income Statement
% % % %
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Change 2011E Change 2012E Change 2013E Change
Net Sales $39,375 $40,169 $43,373 $51,407 $56,741 $68,222 $76,476 $81,748 $76,694 $78,938 2.9 $81,873 3.7 $85,446 4.4 $89,321 4.5
Provision for Restructuring - Net Sales (131) 69 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cost of Products Sold (20,966) (20,481) (21,760) (25,143) (27,872) (33,125) (36,686) (39,536) (38,690) (37,919) -2.0 (39,542) 4.3 (41,055) 3.8 (42,694) 4.0
Provision for Restructuring - COPS (1,136) (508) (381) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross Margin 17,142 19,249 21,236 26,264 28,869 35,097 39,790 42,212 38,004 41,019 7.9 42,331 3.2 44,391 4.9 46,627 5.0
Selling, General and Administrative Expense (11,588) (12,052) (13,009) (16,882) (18,400) (21,848) (24,340) (25,575) (22,630) (24,719) 9.2 (25,227) 2.1 (26,359) 4.5 (27,625) 4.8
Provision for Restructuring - MR&A (583) (519) (374) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating Profit 4,971 6,678 7,853 9,382 10,469 13,249 15,450 16,637 15,374 16,300 6.0 17,104 4.9 18,032 5.4 19,002 5.4
Interest Expense (794) (603) (561) (629) (834) (1,119) (1,304) (1,467) (1,358) (946) -30.3 (831) -12.2 (859) 3.4 (974) 13.3
Other Non-Operating Income, Net 674 308 238 152 346 283 564 462 397 (28) -107.1 49 -275.0 88 79.6 100 13.6
Earnings Before Income Taxes 4,851 6,383 7,530 8,905 9,981 12,413 14,710 15,632 14,413 15,326 6.3 16,323 6.5 17,261 5.7 18,128 5.0
Income Taxes (2,086) (2,283) (2,557) (2,749) (3,058) (3,729) (4,370) (4,293) (3,733) (3,949) 5.8 (4,441) 12.5 (4,697) 5.8 (4,931) 5.0
Provision for Restructuring - Income Taxes 375 252 213 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Earnings from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 277 2,756 1,790 0 0 0
Net Earnings $3,140 $4,352 $5,186 $6,156 $6,923 $8,684 $10,340 $11,616 $13,436 $13,167 -2.0 $11,881 -9.8 $12,564 5.7 $13,197 5.0
Preferred Dividend Impact on Funding of ESOP (15) (12) (9) (4) (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Diluted Net Earnings $3,125 $4,340 $5,177 $6,152 $6,922 $8,684 $10,340 $11,616 $13,436 $13,167 -2.0 $11,881 -9.8 $12,564 5.7 $13,197 5.0
EPS - Diluted $1.11 $1.54 $1.85 $2.20 $2.53 $2.64 $3.04 $3.42 $3.39 $3.67 8.4 $3.98 8.5 $4.39 10.3 $4.85 10.4
Core EPS - Diluted $1.64 $1.80 $2.04 $2.20 $2.53 $2.64 $3.04 $3.42 $3.39 $3.67 8.4 $3.98 8.5 $4.39 10.3 $4.85 10.4
Household and Personal Care Products
Dividends $0.70 $0.76 $0.82 $0.93 $1.03 $1.15 $1.28 $1.45 $1.64 $1.80 9.9 $1.97 9.1 $2.12 7.9 $2.28 7.5
EBITDA 7,242 8,371 9,556 11,115 12,353 15,876 18,580 19,803 18,456 19,408 5.2 20,060 3.4 21,047 4.9 22,077 4.9
EBITDA/Share - Diluted $2.58 $2.98 $3.41 $3.97 $4.51 $4.83 $5.47 $5.97 $5.85 $6.26 7.0 $6.73 7.4 $7.36 9.4 $8.11 10.2
Core EBITDA 9,092 9,329 10,307 11,115 12,353 15,876 18,580 19,803 18,456 19,408 5.2 20,060 3.4 21,047 4.9 22,077 4.9
Core EBITDA/Share - Diluted $3.23 $3.32 $3.68 $3.97 $4.51 $4.83 $5.47 $5.97 $5.85 $6.26 7.0 $6.73 7.4 $7.36 9.4 $8.11 10.2
Avg. Shares Outstanding - Basic 2,601 2,595 2,593 2,580 2,516 3,055 3,159 3,081 2,952 2,901 -1.7 2,787 -3.9 2,673 -4.1 2,543 -4.8
Avg. Shares Outstanding - Diluted 2,811 2,810 2,803 2,799 2,737 3,286 3,399 3,317 3,154 3,099 -1.7 2,982 -3.8 2,860 -4.1 2,721 -4.8
Cost of Products Sold (%) 53.25 50.99 50.17 48.91 49.12 48.55 47.97 48.36 50.45 48.04 48.30 48.05 47.80
Selling, General and Administrative Expense (%) 29.43 30.00 29.99 32.84 32.43 32.02 31.83 31.29 29.51 31.31 30.81 30.85 30.93
Interest Expense (%) 2.02 1.50 1.29 1.22 1.47 1.64 1.71 1.79 1.77 1.20 1.01 1.01 1.09
Effective Tax Rate (%) 31.13 31.10 30.88 30.87 30.64 30.04 29.71 27.47 25.90 25.77 27.21 27.21 27.20
Gross Margin (%) 46.75 49.01 49.83 51.09 50.88 51.45 52.03 51.64 49.55 51.96 51.70 51.95 52.20
Operating Margin (%) 17.32 19.01 19.84 18.25 18.45 19.42 20.20 20.35 20.05 20.65 20.89 21.10 21.27
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.09 23.22 23.76 21.62 21.77 23.27 24.30 24.22 24.06 24.59 24.50 24.63 24.72
Pretax Margin (%) 17.02 18.28 19.09 17.32 17.59 18.20 19.23 19.12 18.79 19.42 19.94 20.20 20.30
Net Margin (%) 11.68 12.56 13.18 11.97 12.20 12.73 13.52 13.87 13.93 14.41 14.51 14.70 14.77
Return on Sales (Net Income/Sales) x 11.68% 12.56% 13.18% 11.97% 12.20% 12.73% 13.52% 13.87% 13.93% 14.41% 14.51% 14.70% 14.77%
Asset Turnover (Sales/Avg. Assets) = 1.15x 1.07x 1.03x 1.02x 0.96x 0.69x 0.56x 0.58x 0.55x 0.60x 0.62x 0.64x 0.67x
Return on Avg. Assets (%) x 13.38% 13.43% 13.53% 12.21% 11.68% 8.81% 7.56% 8.04% 7.66% 8.65% 9.03% 9.36% 9.92%
Financial Leverage (Avg. Assets/Avg. Equity) = 2.83x 2.92x 2.83x 2.93x 3.23x 2.42x 2.11x 2.07x 2.09x 2.11x 2.10x 2.14x 2.19x
Return on Avg. Equity (%) 37.86% 39.24% 38.24% 35.79% 37.76% 21.34% 15.95% 16.61% 16.04% 18.23% 18.97% 20.03% 21.73%
Return on Avg. Invested Capital (%) 19.34% 19.98% 20.34% 18.84% 17.75% 12.89% 10.69% 11.57% 11.02% 12.63% 13.24% 13.71% 14.76%
Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets 8,300 13,430 13,507 23,900 24,163 89,027 90,178 94,000 89,118 85,648 -3.9 86,890 1.5 84,738 -2.5 82,640 -2.5
Other Non-Current Assets 2,103 1,831 1,875 1,925 2,703 3,569 4,265 4,837 4,348 4,498 3.4 5,442 21.0 6,348 16.6 7,163 12.8
Total Assets $34,387 $40,776 $43,706 $57,048 $61,527 $135,695 $138,014 $143,992 $134,833 $128,172 -4.9 $134,923 5.3 $133,474 -1.1 $132,496 -0.7
Accounts Payable $2,075 $2,205 $2,795 $3,617 $3,802 $4,910 $5,710 $6,775 $5,980 $7,251 21.3 $7,675 5.8 $8,020 4.5 $8,387 4.6
Accrued and Other Liabilities 5,538 6,768 7,391 10,243 9,796 12,947 12,968 11,099 8,601 8,559 -0.5 9,060 5.8 9,466 4.5 9,900 4.6
Debt Due Within One Year 2,233 3,731 2,172 8,287 11,441 2,128 12,039 13,084 16,320 8,472 -48.1 11,512 35.9 11,512 0.0 11,512 0.0
Total Current Liabilities $9,846 $12,704 $12,358 $22,147 $25,039 $19,985 $30,717 $30,958 $30,901 $24,282 -21.4 $28,247 16.3 $28,998 2.7 $29,799 2.8
Long-Term Debt 9,792 11,201 11,475 12,554 12,887 35,976 23,375 23,581 20,652 21,360 3.4 21,464 0.5 21,464 0.0 21,464 0.0
Deferred Income Taxes 894 1,077 1,396 1,349 1,896 12,354 12,015 11,805 10,752 10,902 1.4 10,709 -1.8 10,709 0.0 10,709 0.0
Other Non-Current Liabilities 1,845 2,088 2,291 2,808 3,230 4,472 5,147 7,864 9,146 10,189 11.4 10,678 4.8 10,678 0.0 10,678 0.0
Total Liabilities $22,377 $27,070 $27,520 $38,858 $43,052 $72,787 $71,254 $74,208 $71,451 $66,733 -6.6 $71,098 6.5 $71,849 1.1 $72,650 1.1
Shareholders' Equity 12,010 13,706 16,186 18,190 18,475 62,908 66,760 69,784 63,382 61,439 -3.1 63,825 3.9 61,625 -3.4 59,846 -2.9
Tot. Liab. & Shr. Equity $34,387 $40,776 $43,706 $57,048 $61,527 $135,695 $138,014 $143,992 $134,833 $128,172 -4.9 $134,923 5.3 $133,474 -1.1 $132,496 -0.7
Inventory Analysis
Materials and Supplies $1,096 $1,031 $1,095 $1,191 $1,424 $1,537 $1,590 $2,262 $1,557 $1,692 8.7
Work in Process $373 $323 $291 $340 $350 $623 $444 $765 $672 $604 -10.1
Finished Products $1,915 $2,102 $2,254 $2,869 $3,232 $4,131 $4,785 $5,389 $4,651 $4,088 -12.1
Book Value/Share $4.27 $4.88 $5.78 $6.50 $6.75 $19.14 $19.64 $21.04 $20.10 $19.82 -1.4 $21.40 8.0 $21.55 0.7 $21.99 2.1
Tangible Book Value/Share $1.32 $0.10 $0.96 ($2.04) ($2.08) ($7.95) ($6.89) ($7.30) ($8.16) ($7.81) -4.3 ($7.73) -1.0 ($8.08) 4.5 ($8.38) 3.6
Percent of Sales:
Accounts Receivable 7.4% 7.7% 7.0% 7.9% 7.4% 8.4% 8.7% 8.3% 7.6% 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
Inventories 8.6% 8.6% 8.4% 8.6% 8.8% 9.2% 8.9% 10.3% 9.0% 8.1% 8.4% 8.5% 8.5%
Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets 4.2% 3.7% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 4.2% 4.6% 4.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
Accounts Payable 5.3% 5.5% 6.4% 7.0% 6.7% 7.2% 7.5% 8.3% 7.8% 9.2% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
Accrued and Other Liabilities 14.1% 16.8% 17.0% 19.9% 17.3% 19.0% 17.0% 13.6% 11.2% 10.8% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1%
Liquidity/Solvency:
Current Ratio 1.11 0.96 1.23 0.77 0.81 1.22 0.78 0.79 0.71 0.77 0.79 0.75 0.73
Quick Ratio 0.76 0.69 0.94 0.57 0.61 0.90 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.51 0.54 0.50 0.47
Cash Collection Cycle 49.43 50.30 43.72 38.39 40.57 42.54 42.62 44.82 39.47 25.14 17.86 18.24 18.23
Interest Coverage TTM 11.45 15.47 18.37 17.67 14.81 14.19 14.25 13.50 13.59 20.52 24.15 24.50 22.67
Total Debt/TTM EBITDA 1.32 1.60 1.32 1.88 1.97 2.40 1.91 1.85 2.00 1.54 1.64 1.57 1.49
Leverage:
LT Debt/Total Capital 40.7% 39.1% 38.5% 32.2% 30.1% 35.6% 22.9% 22.2% 20.6% 23.4% 22.2% 22.7% 23.1%
Total Debt/Total Capital 50.0% 52.1% 45.7% 53.4% 56.8% 37.7% 34.7% 34.4% 36.8% 32.7% 34.1% 34.9% 35.5%
Asset Efficiency:
Receivables Turnover 13.48 13.34 14.16 14.48 13.76 13.77 12.38 12.21 12.18 14.13 14.91 14.80 14.80
Inventory Turnover 6.10 5.99 6.13 6.25 5.93 5.86 5.60 5.19 5.06 5.72 5.95 5.81 5.78
A/P Turnover 9.74 9.60 8.78 8.08 7.68 7.90 7.01 6.59 5.83 5.66 5.37 5.27 5.24
Avg. Days Receivables 27.07 27.36 25.78 25.21 26.53 26.51 29.48 29.89 29.98 25.83 24.48 24.66 24.66
Avg. Days Inventory 59.84 60.95 59.51 58.36 61.59 62.24 65.22 70.33 72.15 63.84 61.36 62.82 63.15
Avg. Days Payables 37.48 38.00 41.58 45.18 47.54 46.21 52.08 55.39 62.65 64.52 67.98 69.24 69.59
Finished Products/Total Inventory 56.6% 60.8% 61.9% 65.2% 64.6% 65.7% 70.2% 64.0% 67.6% 64.0%
31
EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. (Dollars in millions, except per share data)
32
Cash Flow Statement
Updated: 01.19.11
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Annual Cash Flow Statement
% % % %
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Change 2011E Change 2012E Change 2013E Change
Net Earnings $3,140 $4,352 $5,186 $6,156 $6,923 $8,684 $10,340 $11,616 $13,436 $13,167 -2.0 $11,881 -9.8 $12,564 5.7 $13,197 5.0
Depreciation and Amortization 2,271 1,693 1,703 1,733 1,884 2,627 3,130 3,166 3,082 3,108 0.8 2,956 -4.9 3,015 2.0 3,075 2.0
Share-Based Compensation Expense 0 0 559 491 524 585 668 555 516 453 -12.2 452 -0.3 465 3.0 479 3.0
Deferred Income Taxes (102) 389 (67) 342 564 (112) 253 1,214 596 36 48 0 0
Gain on Sale of Businesses 0 0 0 0 0 (75) (153) (284) (2,377) (2,670) 2 0 0
Change in Working Capital 669 841 1,220 406 (1,329) (344) (1,547) (1,591) (364) 2,213 270 36 38
Other (174) 467 101 227 113 7 719 332 30 (235) (133) 0 0
Operating Cash Flow $5,804 $7,742 $8,702 $9,355 $8,679 $11,372 $13,410 $15,008 $14,919 $16,072 7.7 $15,476 -3.7 $16,080 3.9 $16,790 4.4
Capital Expenditures (2,486) (1,679) (1,482) (2,024) (2,181) (2,667) (2,945) (3,046) (3,238) (3,067) -5.3 (3,239) 5.6 (3,290) 1.6 (3,470) 5.5
Proceeds from Asset Sales 788 227 143 230 517 882 281 928 1,087 3,068 14 0 0
Acquisitions, Net of Cash Acquired (138) (5,471) (61) (7,476) (572) 171 (492) (381) (368) (425) (398) 0 0
Change in Investments (7) (433) 37 (874) (100) 884 673 (50) 166 (173) (25) 0 0
Investing Cash Flow ($1,843) ($7,356) ($1,363) ($10,144) ($2,336) ($730) ($2,483) ($2,549) ($2,353) ($597) -74.6 ($3,648) 511.1 ($3,290) -9.8 ($3,470) 5.5
Dividends to Shareholders (1,943) (2,095) (2,246) (2,539) (2,731) (3,703) (4,209) (4,655) (5,044) (5,458) 8.2 (5,536) 1.4 (5,664) 2.3 (5,796) 2.3
Change in Short-Term Debt (1,092) 1,394 (2,052) 4,911 2,016 (8,624) 9,006 2,650 (2,420) (1,798) 2,412 0 0
Change in Long-Term Debt 1,130 1,229 170 775 1,095 17,263 (13,171) (4,659) 2,339 (4,716) (17) 0 0
Treasury Stock Purchases (1,250) (568) (1,236) (4,070) (5,026) (16,830) (5,578) (10,047) (6,370) (6,004) -5.7 (7,073) 17.8 (9,100) 28.7 (9,180) 0.9
Impact of Stock Options and Other 141 237 267 562 521 1,319 1,499 1,867 681 721 5.9 758 5.1 781 3.0 804 3.0
Household and Personal Care Products
Financing Cash Flow ($3,014) $197 ($5,097) ($361) ($4,125) ($10,575) ($12,453) ($14,844) ($10,814) ($17,255) 59.6 ($9,455) -45.2 ($13,983) 47.9 ($14,172) 1.4
Effect of Exchange Rates (56) 17 387 (46) (61) 237 187 344 (284) (122) 101 0 0
Net Change in Cash & Equivalents $891 $600 $2,629 ($1,196) $2,157 $304 ($1,339) ($2,041) $1,468 ($1,902) -229.6 $2,474 -230.1 ($1,193) -148.2 ($852) -28.6
Cash & Equiv. Beg. $1,415 $2,199 $2,799 $5,428 $4,232 $6,389 $6,693 $5,354 $3,313 $4,781 44.3 $2,879 -39.8 $5,353 85.9 $4,160 -22.3
Cash & Equiv. End $2,306 $2,799 $5,428 $4,232 $6,389 $6,693 $5,354 $3,313 $4,781 $2,879 -39.8 $5,353 85.9 $4,160 -22.3 $3,308 -20.5
Avg. Shares Outstanding - Diluted 2,811 2,810 2,803 2,799 2,737 3,286 3,399 3,317 3,154 3,099 -1.7 2,982 -3.8 2,860 -4.1 2,721 -4.8
Operating Cash Flow/Shr. - Diluted $2.06 $2.76 $3.10 $3.34 $3.17 $3.46 $3.95 $4.52 $4.73 $5.19 9.6 $5.19 0.1 $5.62 8.4 $6.17 9.7
Free Cash Flow $3,318 $6,063 $7,220 $7,331 $6,498 $8,705 $10,465 $11,962 $11,681 $13,005 11.3 $12,237 -5.9 $12,790 4.5 $13,320 4.1
Free Cash Flow/Shr. - Diluted $1.18 $2.16 $2.58 $2.62 $2.37 $2.65 $3.08 $3.61 $3.70 $4.20 13.3 $4.10 -2.2 $4.47 9.0 $4.89 9.4
Free Cash Flow Productivity 105.7% 139.3% 139.2% 119.1% 93.9% 100.2% 101.2% 103.0% 86.9% 98.8% 103.0% 101.8% 100.9%
Percent of Sales:
Capital Expenditures 6.3% 4.2% 3.4% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 4.2% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%
Free Cash Flow 8.4% 15.1% 16.6% 14.3% 11.5% 12.8% 13.7% 14.6% 15.2% 16.5% 14.9% 15.0% 14.9%
Relative EV/EBITDA
Year Price Range Per Share P/E Range (X) P/E Range (X) Range (X) FCF Yield (%) Yield Range (%)
(Dec) High Low Earnings EBITDA FCF Dividends High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low
1991 $11.92 $9.50 18.21 14.51 0.99 1.07 4.18% 3.33% 2.83% 2.25%
1992 $13.94 $11.28 $0.65 $1.40 $0.40 $0.27 19.74 15.98 1.18 1.08 10.42 8.66 6.00% 4.85% 2.59% 2.10%
1993 $14.72 $11.31 $0.71 $1.50 $0.68 $0.29 18.39 14.14 1.22 1.04 9.45 7.47 4.91% 3.77% 2.92% 2.24%
1994 $16.16 $12.81 $0.80 $1.72 $0.56 $0.33 17.02 13.50 1.33 1.17 8.99 7.29 3.00% 2.38% 2.93% 2.32%
Procter & Gamble Co.
1995 $22.38 $15.16 $0.95 $1.95 $0.38 $0.38 20.85 14.13 1.38 1.27 11.09 7.75 8.00% 5.42% 2.80% 1.90%
1996 $27.75 $19.84 $1.07 $2.17 $1.21 $0.43 22.80 16.30 1.35 1.23 11.57 8.39 4.66% 3.34% 2.41% 1.72%
1997 $41.72 $25.91 $1.22 $2.52 $0.93 $0.48 30.89 19.18 1.39 1.17 16.18 10.34 3.20% 1.99% 2.07% 1.29%
1998 $47.41 $32.56 $1.35 $2.75 $0.83 $0.54 31.35 21.54 1.28 1.20 15.39 10.81 2.04% 1.40% 1.86% 1.28%
1999 $57.81 $41.00 $1.51 $3.28 $0.66 $0.61 37.63 26.69 1.44 1.25 20.45 14.89 2.25% 1.60% 1.63% 1.16%
2000 $59.19 $26.38 $1.54 $3.07 $0.92 $0.67 35.08 15.63 1.02 0.56 19.49 9.35 6.51% 2.90% 2.77% 1.23%
2001 $40.86 $27.98 $1.69 $3.27 $1.72 $0.73 21.18 14.50 0.74 0.74 12.83 9.21 9.23% 6.32% 2.82% 1.93%
2002 $47.38 $37.04 $1.93 $3.55 $2.58 $0.79 22.20 17.35 1.05 1.25 13.27 10.57 6.42% 5.02% 2.34% 1.83%
2003 $49.97 $39.79 $2.13 $3.85 $2.38 $0.87 20.86 16.61 1.26 1.41 13.04 10.62 6.54% 5.21% 2.46% 1.96%
2004 $57.40 $48.89 $2.40 $4.25 $2.60 $0.98 22.16 18.88 1.39 1.36 12.80 11.08 5.08% 4.33% 2.23% 1.90%
2005 $59.70 $51.16 $2.59 $4.70 $2.48 $1.09 21.23 18.19 1.47 1.41 11.42 10.02 5.19% 4.45% 2.37% 2.03%
2006 $64.73 $52.75 $2.81 $5.14 $2.66 $1.21 19.96 16.27 1.19 1.14 13.31 11.15 6.86% 5.59% 2.58% 2.10%
2007 $75.18 $60.42 $3.24 $5.67 $3.62 $1.36 21.90 17.60 0.91 0.84 14.72 12.15 5.23% 4.20% 2.57% 2.06%
2008 $74.26 $54.92 $3.43 $5.97 $3.16 $1.55 20.62 15.25 0.85 1.25 14.28 11.04 8.23% 6.09% 3.13% 2.32%
2009 $63.48 $43.93 $3.60 $6.24 $4.52 $1.72 17.07 11.81 1.26 1.48 11.62 8.46 8.91% 6.16% 4.29% 2.97%
2010 $65.38 $58.92 $3.72 $6.31 $3.91 $1.89 15.60 14.05 1.15 1.29 11.11 10.15 7.19% 6.48% 3.47% 3.12%
Average '91-'10 (exc'l '97-'00) 19.99 15.57 1.17 1.19 11.99 9.60 6.23% 4.81% 2.80% 2.17%
Average '01-'10 20.28 16.05 1.12 1.22 12.84 10.45 6.89% 5.38% 2.82% 2.22%
33
EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Fuel
Natural Gas (NYM $/btu) Low Sulfur No 2 Diesel Fuel (Gulf Coast $/gal)
$14 $5
Quarter Average
Quarter Average
$12 Q409: $4.927 Q410: $3.978
Q409: $1.947 Q410: $2.337
Q309: $3.441 Q310: $4.235 $4
Q309: $1.757 Q310: $2.030
$10 Q209: $3.811 Q210: $4.353
Q209: $1.534 Q210: $2.098
Q109: $4.469 Q110: $4.999
Q109: $1.293 Q110: $2.043
$3
$8
$6
$2
$4
$1
$2
$0 $0
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Jan-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
$2
$1
$0
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Resins
High Density Polyethylene (North America $/lb) Linear Low Density Polyethylene (North America $/lb)
$1.10 $1.10
Quarter Average Quarter Average
Q409: $0.72 Q410: $0.84 Q309: $0.64 Q310: $0.73
$1.00 $1.00
Q309: $0.69 Q310: $0.78 Q209: $0.60 Q210: $0.79
Q209: $0.65 Q210: $0.84 Q109: $0.57 Q110: $0.78
$0.90 Q109: $0.60 Q110: $0.83 $0.90 Q408: $0.63 Q409: $0.67
$0.80 $0.80
$0.70 $0.70
$0.60 $0.60
$0.50 $0.50
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Oct-10
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Source: C MAI and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: C MAI and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Note: Represents Blow Molding North American Delivered contract Note: Represents Butene, Film North American Delivered contract
Low Density Polyethylene (North America $/lb) PET (North America $/lb)
$1.10 $1.10
Quarter Average Quarter Average
Q409: $0.75 Q410: $0.93 Q409: $0.75 Q410: $0.87
$1.00 $1.00
Q309: $0.72 Q310: $0.87 Q309: $0.77 Q310: $0.77
Q209: $0.68 Q210: $0.89 Q209: $0.73 Q210: $0.81
$0.90 Q109: $0.65 Q110: $0.86 $0.90 Q109: $0.67 Q110: $0.80
$0.80 $0.80
$0.70 $0.70
$0.60 $0.60
$0.50 $0.50
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Source: C MAI and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: C MAI and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Note: Represents GP, Film North American Delivered contract Note: Represents Small/Large Buyer North American Delivered contract
$0.80 $1.00
$0.60 $0.80
$0.40 $0.60
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Source: C MAI and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: C MAI and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Note: Represents GP Homopolymer North American Delivered contract Note: Represents General Purpose North American Delivered contract
34
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp Index (FOEX PIX $/ton) Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp Index (FOEX PIX $/ton)
$1,100 $1,050
Quarter Average
Quarter Average
Q409: $670 Q410: $865
$1,000 Q409: $773.7 Q410: $957.2 $950 Q309: $551 Q310: $891
Q309: $682.7 Q310: $960.3
Q209: $492 Q210: $870
Q209: $605.5 Q210: $946.5
$900 $850 Q109: $534 Q110: $750
Q109: $603.1 Q110: $849.6
$800 $750
$700 $650
$600 $550
$500 $450
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Source: Bloomberg and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: Bloomberg and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
$210
$190
$170
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Agricultural Commodities
Soybean Oil (Cen ILL $/lb) Crude Palm Oil (FOB Malaysia $/lb)
$0.80 $0.80
Quarter Average Quarter Average
$0.70 Q409: $0.36 Q410: $0.48 $0.70 Q409: $0.31 Q410: $0.48
Q309: $0.32 Q310: $0.37 Q309: $0.29 Q310: $0.38
$0.60 $0.60
Q209: $0.35 Q210: $0.36 Q209: $0.33 Q210: $0.35
$0.50 Q109: $0.30 Q110: $0.35 $0.50 Q109: $0.24 Q110: $0.35
$0.40 $0.40
$0.30 $0.30
$0.20 $0.20
$0.10 $0.10
$0.00 $0.00
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: Bloomberg and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Crude Coconut Oil (FOB Philippines $/lb) Tallow USDA Steer Offal Byproduct Packer Bleachable ($/lb)
$1.00 $0.60
Quarter Average Quarter Average
Q409: $0.31 Q410: $0.69 Q409: $0.25 Q410: $0.38
$0.50
$0.80 Q309: $0.30 Q310: $0.50 Q309: $0.28 Q310: $0.31
Q209: $0.33 Q210: $0.41 Q209: $0.24 Q210: $0.32
Q109: $0.29 Q110: $0.36 $0.40 Q109: $0.18 Q110: $0.28
$0.60
$0.30
$0.40
$0.20
$0.20
$0.10
$0.00 $0.00
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: Bloomberg and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
35
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Specialty Chemicals
Phosphates Index (BLS PPI Index) Sodium Carbonate and Sulfate Index (BLS PPI Index)
$600 $220
Quarter Average Quarter Average
Q409: 162.6 Q410: 241.1 $200 Q409: 169.7 Q410: 158.3
$500
Q309: 155.2 Q310: 220.8 Q309: 173.0 Q310: 161.2
Q209: 201.0 Q210: 223.2 Q209: 179.3 Q210: 159.6
$180
Q109: 262.7 Q110: 201.3 Q109: 177.2 Q110: 165.0
$400
$160
$300
$140
$200
$120
$100 $100
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Metals
$6,000 $30,000
$4,000 $20,000
$2,000 $10,000
$0 $0
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
$1.650 Qua r t e r A v e r a ge
Qua r t e r A v e r a ge
$1.100 Q409: $0.947 Q410: $0.987
Q409: $1.476 Q410: $1.359
Q309: $0.911 Q210: $0.962
$1.550 Q309: $1.430 Q310: $1.292
Q209: $0.858 Q210: $0.973
Q209: $1.363 Q210: $1.274
$1.000 Q109: $0.803 Q110: $0.961
Q109: $1.305 Q110: $1.383
$1.450
$0.900
$1.350
$0.800
$1.250
$1.150 $0.700
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Dec-08
Oct-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Oct-10
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Oct-10
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
36
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
U.S. Dollars per Japanese Yen U.S. Dollars per British Pound
$0.0140 0 1. 12 . 11: $0.0120 $1.950
0 1. 12 . 11: $1.5698
Qu a r t e r A v e r a g e $1.850
$0.0130 Q409: $0.0111 Q410: $0.0121
Qua r t e r A v e r a g e
Q409: $1.633 Q410: $1.581
Q309: $0.0107 Q310: $0.0117
Q209: $0.0103 Q210: $0.0109 $1.750 Q309: $1.640 Q310: $1.551
$0.0090 $1.350
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
U.S. Dollars per Mexican Peso U.S. Dollars per Chinese Yuan Renminbi
$0.110 $0.1520 0 1. 12 . 11: $0.1514
0 1. 12 . 11: $0.0829
Qu a r t e r A v e r a g e
$0.100 Qua r t e r A v e r a g e
$0.1500 Q409: $0.1465 Q410: $0.1502
Q409: $0.077 Q410: $0.081
Q309: $0.1464 Q310: $0.1477
Q309: $0.075 Q310: $0.078
Q209: $0.1464 Q210: $0.1465
$0.090 Q209: $0.075 Q210: $0.080
$0.1480 Q109: $0.1463 Q110: $0.1465
Q109: $0.070 Q110: $0.078
$0.080 $0.1460
$0.070 $0.1440
$0.060 $0.1420
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
37
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Required Disclosures
$55.00
$53.00
$51.00
$49.00
$47.00
$45.00
$43.00
$41.00
$39.00
1/14/08
2/11/08
3/10/08
4/7/08
5/5/08
6/2/08
6/30/08
8/25/08
9/22/08
10/20/08
11/17/08
1/12/09
2/9/09
4/6/09
5/4/09
6/1/09
6/29/09
8/24/09
9/21/09
10/19/09
11/16/09
1/11/10
2/8/10
4/5/10
5/3/10
5/31/10
6/28/10
7/26/10
8/23/10
10/18/10
11/15/10
12/13/10
1/10/11
7/28/08
12/15/08
3/9/09
7/27/09
12/14/09
3/8/10
9/20/10
Date
Date Publication Price ($) Rating Code Val. Rng. Low Val. Rng. High Close Price ($)
1/14/2008 Gere
1/14/2008 NA 1 77.00 79.00 70.29
z 1/31/2008 65.52 1 75.00 77.00 65.42
z 8/6/2008 67.97 1 73.00 75.00 67.77
z 9/3/2008 71.03 1 75.00 77.00 71.42
z 10/27/2008 58.87 1 63.00 65.00 57.37
z 10/29/2008 60.99 1 65.00 68.00 60.99
z 11/11/2008 64.45 1 68.00 70.00 63.82
z 12/11/2008 58.58 1 67.00 69.00 58.58
2/2/2009 Hausner
2/2/2009 53.05 SR NE NE 53.05
I certify that:
1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers discussed; and
2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
by me in this research report.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC maintains a market in the common stock of Procter & Gamble Co.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates may have a significant financial interest in Procter & Gamble Co.
PG: Risks to our range include (1) prolonged global economic downturn, (2) foreign exchange fluctuations, (3) an increase in taxes
on international profits, (4) aggressive competitive discounting, (5) loss of a major customer (Wal-Mart, Target), (6) significant
input cost inflation, (7) integration risk/dilution related to future acquisitions, and (8) European antitrust issues.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability
and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue.
38
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Procter & Gamble Co. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
STOCK RATING
1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the
next 12 months. BUY
2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market
over the next 12 months. HOLD
3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12
months. SELL
SECTOR RATING
O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
U=Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
VOLATILITY RATING
V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the
analyst expects significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading.
39
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
40
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
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