INTRODUCTION

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INTRODUCTION

Asset pricing is a central theme in the finance literature, with pioneering work by Sharpe
(1964), Lintner (1965), and Black (1972) laying the foundation. The Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM), introduced by Sharpe in 1964, was a groundbreaking equilibrium model that
established the relationship between expected returns and the risk of capital assets, building
upon the work of Markowitz (1952). CAPM asserts that expected returns on securities are
contingent on the market factor, as captured by a stock's beta, which measures its sensitivity
to market condition changes. This model discerns between two types of risk: systematic and
unsystematic. Systematic risk, associated with market conditions, is non-diversifiable, while
unsystematic risk is firm-specific and can be diversified away. CAPM's fundamental insight
is that the risk premium is primarily influenced by market risk, not unsystematic risk, making
beta the key factor in its calculation.
Stock markets hold significant importance in a country's financial system by facilitating the
flow of savings from deficit sectors to surplus sectors. They are often considered a crucial
barometer of an economy, reflecting changes and pressures within it. Policymakers,
economists, and researchers have long been concerned with these markets and their interplay
with macroeconomic factors. Various models like the Discounted Cash Flows Model
(DCFM), Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and Arbitrage-Pricing Model (APM) have
been developed to establish relationships between stock returns and these factors. However,
limitations exist, particularly in developing countries like India, where market imperfections
and unique characteristics render traditional models less suitable. Existing asset-pricing
theories also fail to specify the fundamental macroeconomic factors influencing security
prices. Modern financial theory emphasizes the role of macroeconomic factors as sources of
risk and suggests that the long-term return on assets must reflect changes in these factors.
This study, through various methodologies, addresses these factors and offers valuable
insights for policymakers and investors in shaping their investment strategies. It also
highlights the pressing issue of stock valuation in the Indian stock markets. The paper covers
a literature review, data, methodology, and data analysis, and concludes with significant
findings.
Since the introduction of Fama and French's Three Factors Model in 1993, a global discourse
has ensued concerning the validity, reliability, and predictive power of the factors they
identified for asset pricing. In the Indian context, a multitude of researchers have investigated
this model, yielding conflicting results and conclusions. Some earlier studies, such as those
by Yalwar (1988), Srinivasan (1988), and Varma (1988), supported the Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM) as a suitable descriptor of security returns. However, more recent research,
including Gupta & Sehgal (1993), Vaidyanathan (1995), Madhusoodanan (1997), Sehgal
(1997), Rao (2004), Dhankar & Singh (2005), Manjunatha & Mallikarjunappa (2006), and
others, have contested the CAPM's effectiveness, presenting empirical evidence indicating its
limitations. Ansari (2000) remained cautious, avoiding a definitive rejection of CAPM. On
the other hand, some studies, like those by Mohanty (1998 & 2002), Sehgal (2003), and
Cannon & Sehgal (2003), have supported Fama and French's Three Factors Model as an
improvement over the standard CAPM. The discordant findings across various studies and
the growing endorsement of the Three Factors Model underscore the need to assess its
validity using recent data in the Indian context, which is what this study does, drawing on
data from the period 1999 to 2013

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